59. The Hidden Side of the Super Bowl

A football cheat sheet to help you sound like the smartest person at the party.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:01Stephen J. Dubner?

  Freakonomics Radio is sponsored by PNC Bank. Boring. Great word, bad rep. Yet, time and time again, here at Freakonomics, we find that when something culture-changing happens, boring things like calculations and careful planning are usually behind it. Which begs the question, why not apply it to other aspects of life, like banking, for example? Well, PNC Bank did, since its inception, proving time and again that the best banking strategy isn't the exciting type, but the steady, reliable, definitely-not-yolo type. PNC Bank: brilliantly boring since 1865. Brilliantly boring since 1865 is a registered mark of the PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. PNC Bank, National Association, Member FDIC.

• 0:48Stephen J. Dubner?

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• 1:20Stephen J. Dubner?

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• 1:53Stephen J. Dubner?

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• 2:29Speaker 01

  From APM, American Public Media and WNYC,

• 2:36Speaker 01

  this is Freakonomics Radio on Marketplace. Here's the host of Marketplace, Kai Rizdal.

• 2:44Speaker 02

  Time now for a little bit of Freakonomics Radio, that moment in the broadcast every couple of weeks where we talk to Stephen Dubner, the co-author of the books and the blog of the same name. It is The Hidden Side of Everything. Dubner, welcome back.

• 2:56Stephen J. Dubner?

  Kai, thank you. And listen, congratulations to you, your beloved New York Giants heading back to the Super Bowl.

• 3:01Speaker 02

  How about that Eli Manning, huh? Peyton who?

• 3:03Stephen J. Dubner?

  Yeah. And so you're happy now, so it seems like a good time for me to confess a little something I've been hiding from you, which is I've been kind of two-timing.

• 3:11Speaker 02

  Hey, oh, wait, what?

• 3:14Stephen J. Dubner?

  I've been doing these football Freakonomics segments for the NFL Network during the season.

• 3:19Speaker 02

  All right, I don't love that, but okay, that's fine, whatever.

• 3:22Stephen J. Dubner?

  All right, but here's the upside, which is I'd like to share with you a few of the things I've learned, kind of the hidden side of the Super Bowl, if you will.

• 3:28Speaker 02

  Yeah, but Dubner, here's the thing, there are a lot of people who watch this game or go to parties about it between the dip and the beer and all that stuff, who don't really know a whole lot about football itself. So what do you got?

• 3:39Stephen J. Dubner?

  So if you want to impress your friends, you could explode some cherished football myths, such as, here's one, defense wins championships.

• 3:48Speaker 02

  What do you mean? Of course they do.

• 3:49Stephen J. Dubner?

  Not really true. Now, of course, you'd rather have a great defense than a bad one, but statistically, if you look at past Super Bowls and just football in general, defense is not the magic bullet that the cliche suggests. And in fact, if you look at the matchup this year, during the regular season, on defense, the Giants and the New England Patriots ranked 27th and 31st respectively out of 32 teams.

• 4:09Speaker 02

  And in fact, actually, the game's came down to special teams, the field goal units.

• 4:14Stephen J. Dubner?

  That's right. They both squeaked in. So which brings us, here's another myth, icing the kicker. Now that's where the opposing coach will call a timeout, just as the poor field goal kicker is about to try this critical field goal to tie or win the game. And the idea is they're trying to get inside the kicker's head. Turns out statistically, a kicker is no more likely to miss a kick if he's been iced. And in fact, it may even give him a slight advantage in that he's got a little bit more time to prepare for the kick.

• 4:40Speaker 02

  So what does matter then?

• 4:41Stephen J. Dubner?

  Well, home field advantage is nice. You know, there's a real measurable effect, not just in football, but across all sports. However, it's not necessarily for the reasons we think. The old, you know, sleeping in your own bed and familiarity with the field. It turns out that probably the biggest single explanatory factor for home field advantage is the officials. They make more calls in favor of the home team. Now, NFL officials are very, very good, but they're also human. And on some level, most humans seek approval. And in this case, in the case of football, from, you know, 60,000 screaming fans, hard to ignore.

• 5:17Speaker 02

  You know what? I got you here, Dubner. I have, this is my aha moment with you. You ready? Here's the thing.

• 5:22Stephen J. Dubner?

  We live for these, yep.

• 5:24Speaker 02

  Unlike the NBA championships and unlike Major League Baseball and the World Series, the Super Bowl is played in a neutral site, right? It's in Indianapolis this year.

• 5:33Stephen J. Dubner?

  Correct. But here's the hidden side of the hidden side. Let's not forget.

• 5:38Speaker 02

  That's very meta, dude. But anyway, go ahead.

• 5:40Stephen J. Dubner?

  Let's not forget that Giants quarterback Eli Manning has a big brother named Peyton, you referred to, Peyton Manning, who's been the backbone of the Indianapolis Colts for more than a decade.

• 5:48Speaker 02

  Or the neck bone this season, but he wasn't. But anyway, go ahead.

• 5:51Stephen J. Dubner?

  That's exactly right. So he was out this year, but even so, the crowd at most Super Bowls is full of out of towners. I would not be shocked if there's enough pro Manning family sentiment in Indianapolis to maybe translate into a slight home field edge for the Giants.

• 6:05Speaker 02

  All right. Well, I certainly hope. Let me though, speak on behalf of those who don't really Know or care about the game and they just want to watch and go to the party. Is there a thing that they can use to perhaps pick a winner?

• 6:16Stephen J. Dubner?

  Here's the thing, Kai, you may not know this about me. I'm a bit of a crusader against bacterial infections, especially. No, I'm serious.

• 6:23Speaker 02

  No, so am I. It surprises me not at all.

• 6:25Stephen J. Dubner?

  It's a non sequitur coming from a Super Bowl, right? But especially in hospitals and other public places, I'm always railing against poor hand hygiene. Well, last week, we had a football Freakonomics shoe in the Giants locker room, which was empty at the time. And guess what I saw there, Kai?

• 6:40Speaker 02

  I don't know, man. I would.

• 6:42Stephen J. Dubner?

  On top of every urinal in the Giants locker room, there was a big dispenser of antibacterial solution, right there on every urinal. I got to tell you, even if Eli Manning is too laid back of a quarterback for your taste, or if you don't like Coach Tom Coughlin's old school style, from a public health perspective, I think you gotta be rooting for Big Blue, the New York Giants.

• 7:05Speaker 02

  Yeah, buddy, you heard it here first. Giants by two touchdowns over Tom Brady. I'm telling you.

• 7:08Stephen J. Dubner?

  Because their hands are cleaner.

• 7:11Speaker 02

  Stephen Dubner, he does Freakonomics Radio. It's Freakonomics.com, the website. We'll see you in a couple of weeks.

• 7:17Stephen J. Dubner?

  Okay, Kai, good luck.

• 7:18Speaker 02

  Yeah, man. Hey, I'm sorry about the Steelers, by the way.

• 7:31Stephen J. Dubner?

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• 8:04Stephen J. Dubner?

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• 8:35Stephen J. Dubner?

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• 9:12Speaker 03

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