47. Wildfires, Cops, and Keggers

On Election Day, most people focus on the obvious winners and losers -- that is, the candidates. But we went looking for some of the strange side effects that elections produce.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:01Stephen J. Dubner?

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• 0:46Stephen J. Dubner?

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• 1:27Stephen J. Dubner?

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• 2:10Stephen J. Dubner?

  Freakonomics Radio is sponsored by ChatGPT. ChatGPT Work is a new way to work in ChatGPT. ChatGPT Work can pull info from across your apps and connect to your tools to help you create finished work. You can even automate work in ChatGPT with the Scheduled Tasks feature, and the whole time you stay in control. Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at chatgpt.com by selecting Work Mode, available on Plus and Pro plans.

• 2:47Speaker 01

  From APM, American Public Media and WNYC,

• 2:53Speaker 01

  this is Freakonomics Radio on Marketplace. Here's the host of Marketplace, Kai Rizdal.

• 3:01Speaker 02

  It is time once again for a little Freakonomics Radio, that moment of your lives every couple of weeks when we talk to Stephen Dubner, the co-author of the books and the blog of the same name. It is the hidden side of what? Of, yes, everything. Dubner, how are you?

• 3:15Stephen J. Dubner?

  Hey Kai, I'm great. Listen, I sent you a little something this week. You wanna, you wanna open it up?

• 3:18Speaker 02

  Okay, all right, here we go. It's, oh my God, it's heavy, first of all.

• 3:22Stephen J. Dubner?

  It is heavy?

• 3:23Speaker 02

  Oh my God, yes. Oh, Jesus, Dubner. Also in a bag. Oh, get out of here.

• 3:28Stephen J. Dubner?

  Yeah.

• 3:29Speaker 02

  It's Heineken. It's a little mini keg of Heineken. It's one of those, you know what I'm gonna do? I'm gonna put it in the Marketplace refrigerator.

• 3:34Stephen J. Dubner?

  Don't thank me too much, Kai. I'm actually just trying to save myself a little money because, as you know, Election Day is next week.

• 3:40Speaker 02

  All right, yeah, fine, but much as I like my beer, what does Election Day have to do with it?

• 3:46Stephen J. Dubner?

  Well, as it turns out, Election Day and beer inflation sometimes travel together. So here's Jeffrey Kubik, an economist at Syracuse University.

• 3:54Speaker 02

  All right.

• 3:54Speaker 03

  Basically, the year after an election, there tends to be beer tax increases. So if you are throwing your kegger during year after an election, you're probably going to be paying more.

• 4:05Stephen J. Dubner?

  Right. See, Kai, the idea is that incumbent politicians may not want to hike beer taxes before an election, since the beer-drinking constituency is pretty sizable, so the taxes come later.

• 4:16Speaker 02

  It's weird, but it kind of makes sense.

• 4:18Stephen J. Dubner?

  Oh, it gets weirder, Kai.

• 4:19Speaker 02

  It always does, man. It always does with you.

• 4:21Stephen J. Dubner?

  That's, that's my purpose here. But, you know, most people, when they look at elections, they focus on the obvious winners and losers. That is, the candidates themselves. We, however, this week went looking for some strange side effects of elections. And believe it or not, there's a growing body of academic research on this. So here, in order of appearance, are Ben Olken, Spiros Skoros, and Arka Ghosh.

• 4:42Speaker 04

  In the period leading up to elections, we find greater evidence of deforestation.

• 4:47Speaker 05

  In Greece, the area burnt on an election year is two and a half times the size burnt on a non-election year.

• 4:53Speaker 06

  Crime is lowest in an election year, and it rises right after an election for elections in India.

• 5:01Speaker 02

  All right. So, Dubna, that's, that's a lot of stuff. We'll go the, the last one first, because that's the one that stuck. The crime drop in India. Incumbents, I imagine, want to show they're tough on crime, so they do more policing, so crime goes down before an election.

• 5:13Stephen J. Dubner?

  Exactly right. And not just in India, but around the world here as well. Yep.

• 5:16Speaker 02

  All right. So, deforestation and wildfires, though, help me out.

• 5:19Stephen J. Dubner?

  Well, in Indonesia, where that clip is about, illegal logging is big business. The researchers who looked at this theorize that logging companies bribe incumbents during the season to look the other way. The wildfires in Greece, similar story. You can't legally develop forested land there unless it's been burned by a wildfire. So, again, the theory goes that developers burn the land on purpose, knowing that the incumbents that they support just won't quite notice.

• 5:45Speaker 02

  I, ooh, I know what this is. This is unintended consequences.

• 5:48Stephen J. Dubner?

  Right? That's exactly right. You know, elections produce all kinds of consequences that are in no way an official plank on anyone's platform. And next week, with an off-year election, we might see the special interests who are always jockeying for influence have even more influence than usual. Here's Sarah Anzia from Stanford University.

• 6:09Speaker 07

  When elections are held at weird times, like a city election held in the odd-numbered years, the people who really care about the election outcome are going to turn out to vote, meaning that each successfully mobilized voter goes much farther toward tipping the election outcome when turnout is low.

• 6:22Stephen J. Dubner?

  Right. So Kai, ANZIA found that teachers' unions, for instance, do incredibly well in places that hold school board elections in off-years. In those districts, teachers get paid 3% to 4% more.

• 6:34Speaker 02

  You're right. It's the disproportionate impact thing. Fewer people voting, your vote counts more, in theory.

• 6:38Stephen J. Dubner?

  That's exactly right. Now, we've argued before in Freakonomics that voting generally matters a lot less than people think in a presidential election, let's say. But next week with off-year elections, you can have more influence than usual, and then you can, you know, go out and celebrate your influence with a cheap keg party, Kai.

• 6:54Speaker 02

  With your beer. That's right. All right. Vote early, vote often. Freakonomics.com is the website. Stephen Dubner, we'll see you in a couple of weeks, man.

• 7:00Stephen J. Dubner?

  My pleasure. Thanks, Kai. Hey, we want to hear the stories of the weird election effects that have gone on in your backyard. So give us your feedback. Would you go to Freakonomics.com/radio and click the Talk back box? Thanks a lot.

• 7:24Stephen J. Dubner?

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• 7:57Stephen J. Dubner?

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• 8:28Stephen J. Dubner?

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• 9:05Speaker 08

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