264. In Praise of Incrementalism

What do Renaissance painting, civil-rights movements, and Olympic cycling have in common? In each case, huge breakthroughs came from taking tiny steps. In a world where everyone is looking for the next moonshot, we shouldn't ignore the power of incrementalism.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:01Stephen J. Dubner?

  Freakonomics Radio is sponsored by PNC Bank. Boring. Great word, bad rep. Yet, time and time again, here at Freakonomics, we find that when something culture-changing happens, boring things like calculations and careful planning are usually behind it. Which begs the question, why not apply it to other aspects of life? Like banking, for example? Well, PNC Bank did, since its inception, proving time and again that the best banking strategy isn't the exciting type, but the steady, reliable, definitely-not-yolo type. PNC Bank. Brilliantly boring since 1865. Brilliantly boring since 1865 is a registered mark of the PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. PNC Bank, National Association, Member FDIC.

• 0:48Stephen J. Dubner?

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• 1:21Stephen J. Dubner?

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• 2:11Stephen J. Dubner?

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• 2:53Stephen J. Dubner?

  Our previous episode of Freakonomics Radio was called "In Praise of Maintenance." We asked if our cultural obsession with innovation has led us to neglect the fact that things also need to be taken care of. We talked about sewers.

• 3:06Speaker 01

  Certainly, Rome understood that engineering and infrastructure was a huge part of making its city function.

• 3:13Stephen J. Dubner?

  About bridges. It's a remarkable and not a very happy tale. We talked about housework.

• 3:19Speaker 02

  They're doing almost as much unpaid maintenance work as they are paid work.

• 3:25Stephen J. Dubner?

  And we talked about the nuts and bolts of the digital economy. All of that is infrastructure. We wound up talking about a pet project of mine, which is trying to digitally archive all my work and personal files. So this is about maintenance. It's losing the 200 pounds and then staying that weight. This project was daunting, until someone helped me frame it differently. It's all about prioritization, one step at a time. One step at a time, increment by increment. It got me to thinking about the value of incrementalism in a moonshot world. It got me to thinking that incrementalism is to the moonshot what maintenance is to innovation.

• 4:09Stephen J. Dubner?

  And so this week on Freakonomics Radio, in praise of incrementalism, or if that's too wonky for you, how about this? What do the Italian Renaissance, the Tour de France, and the civil rights movement have in common?

• 4:23Speaker 03

  We all like a dramatic story, but things don't happen out of the blue. And it's so interesting to see why change happens, to get a true picture of why change happens, rather than this sort of phony, all-of-a-sudden picture.

• 4:53Speaker 04

  From WNYC Studios, this is Freakonomics Radio, the podcast that explores the hidden side of everything, with your host, Stephen Dubner.

• 5:07Stephen J. Dubner?

  Ed Glaser is an economics professor at Harvard. I wanted to ask him about my incrementalism idea.

• 5:15Stephen J. Dubner?

  So my argument here is that generally, we are encouraged and trained, really, to look for Big Bang successes in all realms: education, healthcare, politics, you name it. And while I understand the impulse to find these magic bullets, it's exciting, it's sexy, it's all those things, it strikes me that much progress, if not most, throughout history has really been a series of incremental gains. What's your take on that?

• 5:45Speaker 01

  Oh, I think almost surely that's true. You know, I like these examples from the arts, where you can really see each innovation in each painting or each step along the way. But if you think about, you know, the... Glory of the Italian Renaissance. It's a piecemeal process where sort of Brunelleschi first puts together the mathematics of linear perspective of making two dimensional spaces seem three dimensional. Donatello, his friend, puts it in low relief sculpture. It moves to Masaccio, who finally puts it into a painting in Brancacci Chapel, Saint Peter finding a coin in the belly of a fish. Fra Filippo Lippi takes up the ball. Botticelli takes up the ball.

• 6:26Speaker 01

  Each person incrementally improving on the last person, each person exploring the implications of this new idea. It's not that Da Vinci comes along and then all of a sudden the world is different. It's that he's built on a century of incrementalists, some of whom are pretty big incrementalists, but incrementalists nonetheless, who are really creating this revolution.

• 6:47Stephen J. Dubner?

  Glaser is plainly an erudite fellow, especially for an economist. But just so you don't think he spends all this time thinking about Renaissance art and ignoring his own discipline, well, we talked about that, too.

• 7:00Speaker 01

  Within the field of economics, there are larger and smaller parts of those increments. But we're a field that builds on itself. And it's sort of a striking fact within economics that the Nobel Prize doesn't really give awards for single papers so much as it does for a series of contributions by a particular person. And that's surely as it should be, because it's rarely true that one paper on itself is so revolutionary that changes things. It's more that people build on each thing, and it often takes dozens of extra ones to figure out what it means, what it implies for the wider world.

• 7:30Stephen J. Dubner?

  So plainly, you appreciate incrementalism in your own field and in other fields. Do you feel that puts you a little bit in the minority? Do you feel that our political and social culture is always looking for some version of the moonshot?

• 7:43Speaker 01

  I don't know. I mean, I think this is more a Silicon Valley thing than a Cambridge thing. I think maybe I believe in incrementalism because I'm so painfully aware of the very incremental nature of my own contributions. But it's certainly true that in the political sphere, we are always looking for Big Bang solutions. We're looking for a leader who will make everything Right, by coming around the corner inevitably, we're incredibly disappointed that somehow that this new leader didn't magically change everything. The more that you just think that the right answer is to elect one person who will magically fix anything, the less that you actually pay attention to what really matters, which is the knit and grit of everyday decision making, of everyday governance.

• 8:28Stephen J. Dubner?

  So, civil rights reform strikes me as one where incrementally, there have been massive improvements, and yet, it seems as though the appetite for an overnight solution to every civil rights issue is kind of expected. And when that doesn't happen, there's massive hue and cry, even though, overall, the trend has been moving in the right direction. Do you see that as well, or do you think I'm wrong on that?

• 8:54Speaker 01

  No, I agree totally with that. And it required people who, I mean, the NAACP, for example, which worked for decades before the Civil Rights Act, right, to move the ball forward, often in ways that were important, but seem today quite modest. I mean, fighting up to the Supreme Court, fighting the attempts to zone by race, for example, which it did in the teens. American segregation would have been even worse if cities could have explicitly zoned by race, but they couldn't. Fighting restrictive covenants, as it did in the 40s. Fighting segregation in America's schools, as it did in the 50s, decade by decade, increment by increment. And once we start thinking that there is a silver bullet, we lose that. We lose the fact that we need to be working day by day over decades to effect change.

• 9:36Stephen J. Dubner?

  So, let's take a look at a recent story that's been decades in the making.

• 9:44Speaker 05

  The court now holds that same-sex couples may exercise the fundamental right to marry in all states. No longer may this liberty be denied to them.

• 9:52Stephen J. Dubner?

  In 2015, the Supreme Court ruled that same-sex couples have a constitutional right to marriage. Marriage, wrote Justice Anthony Kennedy in the majority opinion, is a keystone of the nation's social order. There is no difference between same and opposite sex couples with respect to this principle. The challenged laws excluding same-sex couples from marriage cannot stand under the Constitution. In 2001, the Pew Research Center found that a majority of Americans opposed same-sex marriage. The margin was 57% against to 35% in favor. But by 2015, those numbers had practically flipped, which would seem to indicate a rather sudden shift.

• 10:36Speaker 03

  People often say to me, wow, gay marriage, it succeeded so quickly. They say that all the time. We all like a dramatic story, but things don't happen out of the blue. And it's so interesting to get a true picture of why change happens, rather than this sort of phony, all-of-a-sudden picture.

• 11:05Stephen J. Dubner?

  That's Linda Hirschman. She's a legal scholar who used to practice labor law. She's argued two cases herself before the Supreme Court and briefed and managed a third. She is also the author of several books, including Victory: The Triumphant Gay Revolution. The revolution, Hirschman argues, was incremental.

• 11:23Speaker 03

  It wasn't the explosion that the popular narrative makes it out to be.

• 11:27Stephen J. Dubner?

  So, to understand how we got here...

• 11:36Stephen J. Dubner?

  You need to go back to a time when life for gay men and women in America was very different.

• 11:43Speaker 06

  There's another group about which I hesitate to talk, but I think the picture isn't complete unless we do.

• 11:51Speaker 03

  It got very bad during the Joseph McCarthy period.

• 11:57Speaker 06

  This unusual State Department affliction. Homosexuals.

• 12:01Speaker 03

  The sort of red scare stuff that went on in America started during World War II. And right after World War II, it really ramped up. And the government used the fact that people were gay as evidence that they were subversive. And the government fired them if they worked for the government. So it was a very dark period in gay history.

• 12:28Stephen J. Dubner?

  One of those people was Frank Cameni. He was a PhD astronomer from Harvard.

• 12:33Speaker 03

  He was hoping to become an astronaut.

• 12:35Stephen J. Dubner?

  Cameni worked with the Army Map Service of the US Army Corps of Engineers.

• 12:39Speaker 03

  And they caught him in a bathroom in San Francisco, and they fired him.

• 12:43Stephen J. Dubner?

  This was in 1957.

• 12:45Speaker 03

  And he said, "That's unconstitutional. You can't fire me just because I'm gay." And he sued the United States.

• 12:53Stephen J. Dubner?

  Cameni lost and appealed. He lost again on appeal. In 1961, Cameni petitioned the US Supreme Court, but was turned down.

• 13:03Speaker 03

  It was too soon. But things in America were starting to break up. And just at that moment, Frank Cameni had the courage to resist.

• 13:14Stephen J. Dubner?

  The civil rights movement was growing. Sit-ins, freedom rides, eventually the March on Washington DC in 1963. Frank Cameni wanted to do something similar for gays and lesbians. There was a gay rights group founded in Los Angeles in 1950 called the Mattachine Society. The name came from Mattachineo, Italian for "a court jester who spoke truth to power." Cameni started a Washington chapter of the Mattachine Society, and he organized protests outside the White House and other federal buildings.

• 13:45Speaker 07

  Every American citizen has the right to be considered by his government on the basis of his own personal merits as an individual.

• 13:54Stephen J. Dubner?

  That's Cameni speaking outside the State Department in 1965. At the time, the State Department argued that gay men and women were national security risks because they could be easily blackmailed.

• 14:06Speaker 07

  Certainly, some homosexuals are poor risks. This is no possible excuse for penalizing all homosexuals.

• 14:14Stephen J. Dubner?

  Their protests were ineffective. Here is then-Secretary of State Dean Rusk.

• 14:19Speaker 08

  I understand that we are being picketed by a group of homosexuals. They...

• 14:28Speaker 08

  Policy of the department is that we do not employ homosexuals knowingly, and that if we discover homosexuals in our department, we discharge them.

• 14:37Stephen J. Dubner?

  From the tone of Rusk's voice, you get a sense of just how much stigma was attached to homosexuality. You have to remember, being gay at the time could not only get you fired, it could also land you in jail. Nearly every state at the time had sodomy laws. Was there at least some support from the medical community? Hardly.

• 14:58Speaker 09

  Homosexuality is, in fact, a mental illness which has reached epidemiological proportions.

• 15:06Stephen J. Dubner?

  That's Charles Sakarides, a psychiatry professor interviewed for a 1967 CBS News report called "The Homosexual."

• 15:14Speaker 09

  The fact that somebody is homosexual, a true obligatory homosexual, automatically rules out the possibility that he will remain happy for long, in my opinion.

• 15:26Speaker 03

  Cameney had figured out, as soon as he got active in the late 50s and early 60s, that there could be no equality for gay and lesbian people while they were classified as crazy.

• 15:39Stephen J. Dubner?

  Indeed. Sakarides's view was hardly a marginal one. The American Psychiatric Association classified homosexuality as a mental disorder. The Mattachine Society and other groups set out to change that classification.

• 15:53Speaker 03

  And they went about it in a very incrementalist way. They went to the people in the American Psychiatric Association who were studying the question of the diagnoses, right? Because this is their medical association, so they had scholars who were studying it. So the gay organizers approached the scholars and said, "You're wrong. You've got to do real research into this."

• 16:22Stephen J. Dubner?

  It helped, perhaps, that Frank Cameny was himself a scientist. Hirschman says he could spot flaws in the scholarship about homosexuality. For instance, most of the studies relied solely on gay psychiatric patients.

• 16:36Speaker 03

  I mean, once somebody's going to a psychiatrist to be helped, he's part of a population that's not representative of the whole gay population, right? He's already in need of psychiatric help, or he wouldn't be there in the first place. You have to look at a representative sample of the whole population and see if they seemed to be in distress, which they did not, except from the persecution, of course, and to see if they were functioning according to the other indicia of good mental health. And they were. The numbers were overwhelming once the psychiatrist stopped looking at their own patients.

• 17:15Stephen J. Dubner?

  Homosexuality was finally removed from the list of mental illnesses in 1973.

• 17:20Speaker 03

  To their credit, these doctors, at the end of the day, confronted with the science, did change their position. I interviewed before he died, the psychiatrist who was in charge of the APA at the time, and he said it was the greatest accomplishment of his life.

• 17:36Stephen J. Dubner?

  So that was progress, but consensual sex between two people of the same gender was still illegal in most states. And those laws gave the police enormous power over gays and lesbians.

• 17:47Speaker 10

  They were always on the lookout for us. They tormented us. They just didn't leave us alone.

• 17:54Stephen J. Dubner?

  That's Martin Bois, a longtime New Yorker who participated in the famous Stonewall riots in 1969.

• 18:01Speaker 10

  The amount of people that had trouble with the police or were sent to some sort of institution or were brutalized in one way or another by somebody with the police not intervening or being on the side of the brutalizer was growing. I don't think any of us did not know someone who had really, really suffered real consequences, if not ourselves, as somebody.

• 18:23Stephen J. Dubner?

  The riots were set off by a police raid of The Stonewall Inn, a gay bar in Greenwich Village. In retrospect, the riots were a turning point in the gay rights movement, but it would take a long time to gather enough momentum to challenge the legal system.

• 18:37Speaker 03

  Quietly during those years, in various states and around the country, state courts and state legislatures had been decriminalizing sodomy. So gays were now not crazy, right? And they then attacked the premise that their behavior was criminal. And they were succeeding pretty well.

• 18:59Stephen J. Dubner?

  But many states still had sodomy laws. The movement's ultimate goal was to take the fight all the way to the Supreme Court, which could invalidate all the state laws at once. In 1986, at the height of the AIDS epidemic, the American Civil Liberties Union thought it found a perfect test case in Michael Hardwick, a gay man who'd been arrested for sodomy in Georgia.

• 19:21Speaker 03

  In the gay legal bureaucracy, it was felt that they reasonably could expect now to get a national judgment that criminalizing gay sex, as opposed to not gay sex, which is not criminal, was a violation of the equal protection clause.

• 19:38Stephen J. Dubner?

  The ACLU did take the case, known as Bowers v. Hardwick, to the Supreme Court, and?

• 19:44Speaker 03

  They lost it 5 to 4.

• 19:48Stephen J. Dubner?

  The majority ruled that the right to engage in sodomy was not constitutionally protected. Lynda Hirschman says it was a devastating defeat for the gay community.

• 19:58Speaker 03

  The opinion is reprehensible, and they were already suffering from AIDS.

• 20:02Stephen J. Dubner?

  But, she says, it also made gay rights advocates even more determined.

• 20:06Speaker 03

  Sometimes, a defeat like that is so insulting that it radicalizes the community.

• 20:16Stephen J. Dubner?

  By now, the right to marry was becoming another significant plank in the gay rights platform. Here from back in 1974 is Frank Cammoni talking about it on PBS.

• 20:27Speaker 07

  Exercise by homosexual couples of the right to marry detracts not one iota from the rights of heterosexual couples to marry. Homosexual marriages interfere with no one individually, and such marriages impair or interfere with no societal interest.

• 20:43Stephen J. Dubner?

  The question was how the goal of gay marriage could be achieved through the courts. Hirschman says that one source of inspiration was found in the African-American leadership, particularly the NAACP, that pursued civil rights legislation in the 1950s and 60s.

• 20:59Speaker 03

  They followed an incremental pattern more cleanly than any other social movement because the NAACP controlled it.

• 21:10Stephen J. Dubner?

  Thurgood Marshall, who eventually became the first black Supreme Court Justice, was head of the NAACP's legal strategy. In that capacity, he argued several cases before the Supreme Court, including the landmark Brown v. Board of Education of Topeka, which in 1954 desegregated public schools.

• 21:29Speaker 03

  The closest that we've come in American social history to having a dictator is Thurgood Marshall. The INC. Fund, the NAACP Legal Defense Fund, controlled the money that you needed to spend to prove a school desegregation case. And accordingly, they got to say in what order that very fundamental question of school desegregation was presented to the Supreme Court. So they challenged, for instance, a law school that segregated its one black law student out from

• 22:13Speaker 03

  the class of white law students by roping him off. I mean, they didn't tie him up. That so important was the maintenance of racial caste. And it's hard for a Supreme Court in the 50s to look at that and say, oh, that's OK. So in fact, the court said it was unconstitutional. OK, now, if it's unconstitutional to segregate a state law school, why isn't it unconstitutional to segregate state colleges? And from there, to the grade schools, which was the socially most explosive. Decision.

• 22:53Stephen J. Dubner?

  The gay rights movement had no dictator like Thurgood Marshall, nor was there a single dominant organization like the NAACP. But Linda Hirschman says there was a consensus beginning to form among activists that the gay marriage fight would be the hardest one to win, which meant continuing to focus on the sodomy laws and fighting anti-gay discrimination in the labor and housing markets and elsewhere.

• 23:20Speaker 03

  They very smartly went back to the drawing board with the sodomy laws and kept getting them struck down by state courts and reformed and reversed in state legislatures until it was an outlier in America to make sodomy criminal.

• 23:40Stephen J. Dubner?

  Finally, in a 2003 case called Lawrence v. Texas, the Supreme Court overturned Bowers v. Hardwick, thus invalidating all remaining sodomy laws.

• 23:53Speaker 10

  And that, I think, was the most important decision of them all.

• 23:56Stephen J. Dubner?

  That, again, is Martin Boyce, veteran of the Stonewall riots.

• 24:00Speaker 10

  I mean, once that happened, then it was going to be a matter of time. I don't know how much time. It could have been many more years of incrementalism. But I knew it was going to happen.

• 24:11Stephen J. Dubner?

  It being the legal right for same-sex marriage. Gay rights advocates won the legal battle in a number of states. Massachusetts was first in 2004, although they subsequently had to fight off a proposed federal amendment to the Constitution that would have defined marriage as a union between a man and a woman. They kept working to shift public opinion. In 2012, President Obama, who had previously opposed same-sex marriage, changed his position.

• 24:39Speaker 11

  At a certain point, I've just concluded that, for me personally, it is important for me to go ahead and affirm that I think same-sex couples should be able to get married.

• 24:58Stephen J. Dubner?

  The same-sex marriage movement, as triumphant as it was, in some ways, came out of order. There were other, perhaps more fundamental, goals to still accomplish. For instance, winning nondiscrimination protections for the LGBTQ community throughout the United States. Still, as Lynda Hirschman points out, the marriage movement did work, and it worked because of the incremental steps that added up to victory. Hirschman has written a number of books on social movements. We asked if she had any advice for one social movement that's dominating headlines these days: Black Lives Matter.

• 25:33Speaker 03

  I have lessons that I think any future movement can learn from the gay rights movement, and they are as follows. Put your own interest first. Do not take up every conceivable progressive issue that somebody in your movement thinks is interesting. At the beginning, new movements don't have a lot of spare capital, and they need to spend it on their issues and the things that will keep them together, rather than fragment them. The gay movement did that. Two, take the moral high ground.

• 26:16Speaker 03

  The AIDS epidemic forced the gay movement to take the moral high ground, and they did it beautifully. And then they used it in the marriage fight perfectly. And the third lesson is have weekly meetings. I am not convinced that social media is a substitute for the kind of deep, rich social contacts that emerge from physical proximity to one another. The next steps that Black Lives Matter can take are reasonable ones for them to take next, okay? The availability of technology

• 26:59Speaker 03

  in the form of video cameras and phone cameras empowers them to take bolder action than they would be able to take without the technology. So their next steps look about right to me.

• 27:15Speaker 03

  They're bold, but they are, in a sense, incremental. I mean, saying, "Don't shoot me while I've got my hands in the air" does not strike me as a radical position. They then have to move to much more profound issues like the organization of the police force and their training and the way that people use local taxes against communities of color like in Ferguson. Those are bigger bites, but it's time, I think, for those to be addressed as well.

• 27:49Stephen J. Dubner?

  Coming up next on Freakonomics Radio, if the incremental approach can help produce widespread social change, what can it do for your retirement savings?

• 27:59Speaker 12

  It's hard to imagine how you go from what seems like a little bit of money each year to being a millionaire, but that's exactly the way it works when you work out the math.

• 28:09Stephen J. Dubner?

  And can incrementalism help you win the Tour de France? Probably not, but it can contribute.

• 28:27Stephen J. Dubner?

  Freakonomics Radio is sponsored by Southern New Hampshire University. The best investments are the ones you make in yourself, and no one knows that better than Southern New Hampshire University. With more than 200 online degree programs, no set class times, and low online tuition, Southern New Hampshire University is built to fit your life today and set you up for success tomorrow. Education is an investment. Why not make it a smart one? Apply for free at SNHU.edu/freakonomics.

• 29:00Stephen J. Dubner?

  Freakonomics Radio is sponsored by PNC Bank. Boring, great word, bad rep. Yet, time and time again, here at Freakonomics, we find that when something culture-changing happens, boring things like calculations and careful planning are usually behind it, which begs the question, why not apply it to other aspects of life, like banking, for example? Well, PNC Bank did since its inception, proving time and again that the best banking strategy Isn't the exciting type, but the steady, reliable, definitely not YOLO type. PNC Bank, brilliantly boring since 1865. Brilliantly boring since 1865 is a registered mark of the PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. PNC Bank, National Association, Member FDIC.

• 29:47Stephen J. Dubner?

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• 30:21Stephen J. Dubner?

  Let me ask you a question. Where do you get your financial advice? Let me tell you how I see it. Maybe you tune in Jim Cramer to see where the market's headed. Crystal clear short term signal. Sell, sell, sell. Just sell the automakers for the moment. Or maybe you follow a different money guru.

• 30:38Speaker 13

  We know why these stocks look cheap, right? If you look at like the big five.

• 30:41Speaker 14

  Embarrassed bets from the options pits.

• 30:42Speaker 13

  Media stocks right now, the last two years, massive underperformance versus the market.

• 30:46Speaker 14

  So Dan, walk over to the smart board. Get on over there. Show us the act.

• 30:49Speaker 15

  Look at the strike. Look at the T and T. That is the 30 year bond.

• 30:54Speaker 12

  It depresses me that so many people giving so much bad advice have such a big audience and get paid for it.

• 31:00Stephen J. Dubner?

  That's David Leibson. I'm a behavioral economist at Harvard University. Leibson has done a lot of amazing research over the years, really amazing. You should look it up, mainly focused on how people make decisions and how a lot of those decisions are suboptimal and what should be done about that. Consider saving for retirement. A lot of people don't follow the incremental approach.

• 31:26Speaker 12

  They love to hear the get rich quick story. And people dispensing those stories get big audiences. And some of them even have good historical track records and they get even bigger audiences until, of course, they get a bad track record. It's very easy to get sucked into a false profit. And there are so many of them in the financial services industry.

• 31:47Stephen J. Dubner?

  In study after study, the data overwhelmingly show that individual investors are no good at picking stocks.

• 31:56Speaker 12

  Even the pros are no good at that game. The ability of a mutual fund that does well in one year to do well in the next year is close to perfect chance. So you're just making a mistake. It's a very natural mistake. I understand the mistake because we all look out at the world and say, hey, I can see good companies and bad companies. The problem is that that goodness and badness is already priced in. So you're not the first one to figure out that Amazon's a good company. You're not the first one to notice that this carmaker is starting to make bad products and no one's buying their vehicles. Everyone is seeing what you're seeing. All that information is priced in already. You don't have an advantage in playing the market.

• 32:35Stephen J. Dubner?

  So what's a better way to think about saving for retirement?

• 32:38Speaker 12

  One has the impression that it's impossible to save enough for retirement. And to a certain extent, it is impossible if you start at age 50. But if you start early in life and every year you contribute, let's say, 10% of your income, and maybe there's an employer match, so now we're up to maybe 15%, and you invest that savings in a diversified mutual fund, stocks and bonds, and you have low fees, and you keep going at that year in and year out, and you don't decumulate prematurely, it's amazing how that process produces millions of dollars of retirement savings. So it's kind of hard to imagine how you go from what seems like a little bit of money

• 33:23Speaker 12

  each year to being a millionaire. But that's exactly the way it works when you work out the math.

• 33:29Stephen J. Dubner?

  So what you're describing is not at all a secret to anyone who's ever read any basic personal finance or investing book. And yet, as we know, there are a lot of people who don't follow that. So talk to me for a minute about what we know about the people who have the ability and the resources, the income, to accomplish exactly that plan, but don't do it. Is it just too boring? Is it too much work? Is spending here and now just too exciting to divert that saving today?

• 34:01Speaker 12

  Well, it's a lot of elements. One element is investing is complicated. So, one of the ways that success is achieved is by employers auto-enrolling their employees in these plans and then auto-escalating their savings rates. Also, the employer picks a good default investment fund. Again, diversified stocks and bonds, mostly stocks when young, moving more and more to bonds as you age. Low fees, passive investments, so rather than having active management, which is costly, you have passive investments that implies lower fees. And when the employer puts all those pieces in place, people go with the flow. They don't opt out, they don't say no. In fact, they say, "Thank you so much, I'm so glad you did this for me."

• 34:46Speaker 12

  But if all of those pieces aren't there, we go off the rails. So, our employer may not offer such a plan. That's a problem for approximately half of the private sector workforce. There's so many ways in which, unless the right conditions are there, we end up doing what comes natural, which is postponing saving, or even if we save, decumulating. That's another big risk factor. Maybe I'm at a firm for 10 years, I've now accumulated a considerable pool of funds. I leave that firm to go to another firm, rather than rolling the money over to an IRA or leaving the money in the original employer's plan. I take that savings as a distribution, and now I'm spending that money. So, in fact, rather than building the beginning of the snowball that's going to roll into

• 35:29Speaker 12

  something enormous, I've made my savings vanish, and I start again from zero at the next firm. So, there's a lot of ways in which, even though we know we should save for retirement, we fail unless the right conditions exist for us to succeed. And it's those workers who accept those defaults and who take advantage of these modern retirement savings systems, employer-based retirement savings systems, who end up thriving in retirement.

• 36:04Stephen J. Dubner?

  One more conversation today before we wrap things up on incrementalism. Shall I call you Sir Brailsford? Sir Dave, how's that work?

• 36:14Speaker 16

  No, not at all. No, no, no, no, no. It was a nice thing to happen at the time, but in reality, it gets you an upgrade on flights and a few hotel rooms, but that's about it, really. So, yeah, stick to Dave.

• 36:26Stephen J. Dubner?

  Dave Brailsford was knighted for helping turn Great Britain into a perennial titan in the sport of cycling.

• 36:34Speaker 16

  Prior to the year 2000, Great Britain's nation had only won one gold medal in 76 years of trying.

• 36:40Stephen J. Dubner?

  In Rio in 2016, Team GB won 12 cycling medals, including six gold. At the 2012 Games in London, eight gold medals. Brailsford was the performance director of the British Cycling Team from 2003 until 2014. In 2009, he helped found the professional cycling outfit Team Sky. The stated goal of Team Sky at the time was to have a British winner of the Tour de France within five years. In fact, Team Sky won two tours within its first five years, and then two more in 2015 and 16. Brailsford grew up in Wales, the son of a mountain climber. He wanted to be a professional cyclist, maybe even win the Tour de France himself.

• 37:25Speaker 16

  So I decided to pack my bags, rucksack, put my bike in a box, and saved all my money, took it, and off I went to France.

• 37:37Stephen J. Dubner?

  He found a team willing to take him on, perhaps out of pity, he says now.

• 37:41Speaker 16

  I realized pretty early on, unfortunately, that I wasn't going to make it as a top level professional cyclist. So I thought, well, if I can't win the Tour de France myself, then maybe the future lies in trying to help other people do that.

• 37:53Stephen J. Dubner?

  So Brailsford returned to the UK and went to university. He studied sports science and psychology, and he got an MBA. He first started working for British Cycling back in 1997. Over the years, he developed a strategy based on a principle called marginal gains.

• 38:11Speaker 16

  Physics and cycling go hand in hand. You know, it's a sport that lends itself nicely to physics and data collection, measurement, and power and speed. And so we could collect lots of data and analyze performance and we could feed that back to riders and then we could work with them on small, very small, minor tweaks, minor changes that probably felt relatively insignificant at the time, but over time would stick.

• 38:38Stephen J. Dubner?

  Give me a, for instance, is it something like posture? Is it something like pacing? Is it mental?

• 38:44Speaker 16

  Yeah, position, you know, across the whole continuum of sports, performance kind of areas. Some of it could be the position on the bike, the position of the head. You know, we fight against the wind in cycling all the time. It's the biggest thing that slows us down. And just literally dropping the head between the shoulders, dropping it down, just a centimeter will improve the aerodynamics and for the same power, you'll go a little bit further. And the more you can think about holding that position and being cognizant of that position whilst you're riding at your limits, it makes a difference.

• 39:16Stephen J. Dubner?

  But the marginal gains approach went well beyond aerodynamics. The idea was to produce at least a 1% improvement in every facet of the enterprise, from the mechanical, like installing a tire perfectly straight on the rim, to the physiological, like managing the rider's nutrition and choosing the best massage gel.

• 39:37Speaker 16

  We'd look at hand washing, for example, was an area where we'd go to the Olympic Games and we'd be in great form and then we'd be terrified of the riders getting ill or catching a bug. So we started to think about, wow, how are we going to reduce the chances of us getting an illness within the team and in the Olympic Village, for example, and for that then to run through the team and create havoc. So we got a surgeon in who showed everybody how to wash their hands properly. We had people who cleaned all the handles, cleaned the lift buttons. We obviously encouraged people not to shake hands and be very, very mindful of this and use hand gels all the time. And I mean, it's common practice now, but when we were starting out, there were small, little things. You think, is

• 40:21Speaker 16

  that going to win us an Olympic medal? Well, no, it's not. But is it going to contribute to it? Yeah, potentially.

• 40:30Stephen J. Dubner?

  How did you first come to embrace the notion that marginal gains could be fruitful? How did you go about learning or deciding which areas to apply it to?

• 40:41Speaker 16

  It wasn't something overnight, that you know, just woke up one morning and thought, "Okay, we'll do it like this." We're human beings. Perfection, when anybody says, "I'd like a perfect performance," that is daunting. So I kind of thought, "Let's break a performance down to all of its component parts, map them all out, and then let's have a look and see, is it possible to progress in each one of the areas? And if we did, can we be bothered to do it because it takes a lot of work and energy?" And then you've got something that people are in control of. You think, "Okay, well, they feel actually empowered now to move forward." So yes, I might not be able to see how I'm going to get to the top of that massive mountain over there, but boy, I can tell you what, I can improve a small amount in my nutrition,

• 41:24Speaker 16

  in my diet, I can move my weight program forward, I can get another five minutes sleep a night, I can do all the recovery protocols as necessary, you know, and on and on it goes. Now, there's a big psychological component of this, where as a team and a support team, if everybody buys into that philosophy, you're creating a culture which is actually moving forward and is actually kind of building a little bit of momentum. Now, there's no denying that there's no point doing anything on the periphery unless the absolute critical elements, which are going to account for 40 or 50% of performance, are in place.

• 42:04Stephen J. Dubner?

  What are you talking about when you talk about that 40 or 50% baseline? Is that talent? Is that riders who are very, very good already?

• 42:11Speaker 16

  So you have to have a hunger, you have to have a willingness. And it's not so much a hunger about, "I want to be an Olympic champion." It's a hunger towards, "I can break down what it would take to get from where I am now to be an Olympic champion, and I can see the sacrifices, I can see the suffering, and doing all of that work." So that's, for me, is what we would, we mapped that out as a hunger index. We then look at the talent, obviously, and then you have barriers, so remove the barriers, and that will then equal success.

• 42:41Stephen J. Dubner?

  I'm curious, I'm guessing back when you were trying to break into cycling yourself, there was probably no such thing as a hunger index there. I'm guessing if there had been, what do you think your hunger index was back then, Dave?

• 42:53Speaker 16

  Very high. I think I'm a trier. I'm a trier. There's no doubt about that. And I think that's something that's just set, I guess, is maybe part of my psychology, my personality.

• 43:04Stephen J. Dubner?

  Well, and being a son of a mountain climber probably doesn't hurt, huh?

• 43:07Speaker 16

  No, that's right. That's right. That's right. And you know, the one thing he always used to tell me is like, you know, you've got to be professional, always. You've got to be professional, professional, professional. And I used to roll my eyes every time he said it. He's like, come on, Dad, shut up. And then somewhere down the line, it seems to have stuck.

• 43:28Stephen J. Dubner?

  Team Sky, the professional cycling team that Brailsford now runs, competes in big time races like the Tour de France, where you cover more than 2,000 miles over three weeks, which means a new day, a new hotel, and a new bed. And again, Brailsford saw an opportunity for a marginal gain.

• 43:46Speaker 16

  The hotel's given to you by the organisation, you can't change. You don't know what the mattress is going to be like, you don't know what the room's going to be like. So we have a four-team that go into the hotels, and they have a room protocol where basically they lift the bed up, they hoover all under the bed, they clean the room, they have antibacterial protocol, which then cleans all of the room, including the television, remote control, the tap handles, etc. We take the shower head off and clean the shower. And then they have their own mattresses, their own pillows specifically for each rider. And so they can sleep in the same posture every night. Now, is that going to win you the Tour de France?

• 44:30Speaker 16

  Probably not, but it can contribute.

• 44:32Stephen J. Dubner?

  Let me ask you, your teams have been phenomenally successful. To what extent do you believe that the marginal gains approach is actually responsible? I get the sense from some earlier interviews that maybe you think too much has been made of the marginal gains business.

• 44:48Speaker 16

  I think it gave us a methodology and it gave us an approach which allowed the support staff and the riders to be of a certain mindset and approach things in a certain way. And there's no doubt about it that that was, it was like a contagious enthusiasm, if you like. I think equally at times it's too simplistic just to say, well, all we have to do is adopt this marginal gains approach. And I think people misunderstood the concept of marginal gains of being the latest bit of technology or an improvement in a bike or aerodynamics, etc. And I think what they missed was the whole tacit psychological component which created a culture and a mindset within a group which allowed the whole group to buy

• 45:30Speaker 16

  into something, have a collective approach where hundredths of a second could be the difference between winning and losing.

• 45:38Stephen J. Dubner?

  Now, of course, even casual cycling fans, they know that Lance Armstrong, who won the Tour de France seven times vehemently denied doping for many years until he eventually admitted it and that many, many, many cyclists have doped, which really put a huge stain on the sport. So how does a group of cyclists as dominant as yours with both Team Sky and Team GB expect all of us to believe that there's no doping going on?

• 46:04Speaker 16

  Well, it's a very good question. And I don't think, given the past, that we can expect everybody just to believe everything that they see. And I think the right question, there were questions asked in the past, and I think people trusted Lance and then it came as a big blow and a big shock to a lot of people. And I think that would inevitably lead to a level suspicion and a lack of trust that that was going to be a hangover from that period. So I fully understand why people do question us. And I think our job then is to try and be as transparent and open as possible about what we do and how we do

• 46:47Speaker 16

  it. And also, over time, I think people will see that we are doing it the right way. We are doing it clean. And like I say, we just have to be accepting of the situation we find ourselves in and be patient and tolerant and transparent.

• 47:10Stephen J. Dubner?

  Not long after this interview with Brailsford, he and Team Sky found themselves in a situation. Computer hackers released Team Sky documents showing that its two star riders of the past several years, Chris Froome and Bradley Wiggins, both of whom have won the Tour de France, that they both used banned substances under what's known as a therapeutic use exemption, or a TUE. A TUE allows a rider to use an otherwise off-limits drug for legitimate medical reasons. In Wiggins's case, for instance, in order to treat his pollen allergies before the Tour in 2011 and 2012, he injected a banned corticosteroid called triamcinolone, which some say acts as a performance enhancer.

• 47:55Stephen J. Dubner?

  There's no evidence that Wiggins or anyone else on Team Sky broke the rules. It was, after all, a therapeutic use exemption, which is supposed to be kept confidential. But when it wasn't kept confidential, and when you run a team that's been hugely successful, and when you've been touting something called marginal gains as a key component of that success, well, people will talk, especially in Britain, where cycling is a national obsession. Here's the Sunday Times sportswriter David Walsh, talking to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

• 48:27Speaker 17

  The problem that Team Sky have got with this is not only the act itself, which is, at the very least, highly questionable, but they're the team that set themselves up as whiter-than-white. They're the team that set themselves up as totally transparent. They have been anything but transparent in their response to this. They've basically refused to go into any detail about how this was authorized, and they're basically sticking to the line, "It was approved by the authorities, and therefore it was technically legal." And for lots of people, that's not good enough, because ethics still matter in sport, morals still matter.

• 49:09Stephen J. Dubner?

  The UK Anti-Doping Agency is looking into the charges. Team Sky's response? It's the kind of statement that won't surprise anyone who's ever heard a statement issued in this kind of case. "We hope people understand why it would not be helpful for us to comment further whilst that investigation is taking place," the statement reads. Furthermore, "we are confident there has been no wrongdoing and Team Sky abide by the rules and we 100% stand by our commitment to clean competition." It is impossible to say at this moment the degree to which Team Sky may have broken or stretched the rules, or the extent to which their success will be downgraded if they are found to have broken the rules.

• 49:50Stephen J. Dubner?

  Just as progress in civil rights and investing and cycling itself is an incremental exercise, so too is the revelation of truth. What I do think we can agree on is this: if you want to accomplish something, especially something large and meaningful, it pays to at least think hard about an incremental approach. Let's say you weigh 30 pounds more than you should and you decide to lose it. What's your expectation? That you can lose it all in just a few weeks, even just a few months? It's ridiculous. Do you know how long it took you to put on those 30 pounds? A long time. It's a lot of work to put on 30 extra pounds. Well, not work.

• 50:34Stephen J. Dubner?

  It's actually quite fun, eating all that delicious food. But still, it took a lot of nachos and rice bowls and sugary drinks to put on 30 extra pounds. Go to the supermarket and look at a five-pound bag of potatoes, and now look at six of them. That's how much you've accumulated over time. So you know what? It's going to take some time to decumulate. Little by little, choice by choice, increment by increment. If you expect otherwise, well, your expectations are likely to be dashed. By lowering your expectations, you can actually raise your chances of success.

• 51:17Stephen J. Dubner?

  So, good luck, whether your goal is losing weight, saving money, or contributing to a social movement. As always, we'd love to hear from you. Let us know how it's going. We're at [email protected]. Thanks for listening.

• 51:37Stephen J. Dubner?

  Coming up next week on Freakonomics Radio, how a White House behavioral sciences startup is trying to make big changes by taking small steps.

• 51:47Speaker 18

  If you don't see progress as incremental, it's going to be hard to keep morale high within the federal government. But if you start small and you celebrate small wins, eventually you will have built the trust and the credibility to actually engage in more powerful and more ambitious behavioral projects.

• 52:11Stephen J. Dubner?

  Inside the White House's behavioral science unit, that's next time on Freakonomics Radio.

• 52:18Stephen J. Dubner?

  Freakonomics Radio is produced by WNYC Studios and Dubner Productions. This episode was produced by Christopher Wirth. Our staff also includes Jake Howitt, Merritt Jacob, Greg Rosalsky, Noah Kurnis, Alison Hockenberry, Emma Morgenstern, and Harry Huggins. Special thanks on this episode to Evan Wolfson and Linda Hirschman. Her latest book is called Sisters in Law: How Sandra Day O'Connor and Ruth Bader Ginsburg Went to the Supreme Court and Changed the World. You can subscribe to this podcast on iTunes or wherever you get your podcasts. And come visit Freakonomics.com, where you will find our entire podcast archive, as well as a complete transcript of every episode ever made, along with music credits and much more. Thanks.

• 53:12Stephen J. Dubner?

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• 53:44Stephen J. Dubner?

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• 54:29Stephen J. Dubner?

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• 54:53Speaker 19

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