The REAL Reason Florida Homes Stopped Selling (And What Happens Next) | 1497

This episode dives into the current state of Florida's housing market, where fears of a housing crash are dominating discussions. Matt highlights major factors influencing the market, including skyrocketing insurance costs, rising HOA fees, unforeseen construction defects, and a pervasive buyer's strike. The narrative also reveals a surprising behind-the-scenes resurgence in insurance carriers and decreasing litigation, indicating potential stabilization. Despite widespread panic, it argues that savvy investors and institutional buyers are preparing for lucrative opportunities as the market adjusts. The episode concludes by predicting similar trends across other boom states like Texas, Arizona, and the Carolinas, urging cautious yet informed positioning for potential profits. BUT BEFORE THAT, hear how AI ruined lead generation! Useful links: https://myescapebook.com/freedom-formula https://epicearnwhileyoulearn.com/yourfirstdeal https://intensive2025.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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• 1:03Speaker 02

  This is Tario Media.

• 1:07Speaker 03

  Hey, strap in. It's time for the epic real estate investing show. We'll be your guides as we navigate the housing market, the landscape of creative financing strategies, and everything you need to swap that office chair for a beach chair. If you're looking for some one-on-one help, meet us at reias.com. Let's go, let's go, let's go, let's go, let's go.

• 1:29Speaker 04

  Let's go. I made $26,000 from sending 27 letters. My competitors sent 10,000 postcards to the same type of people and made zero. Here's the difference that's about to change everything. While every real estate investor is using AI to find motivated sellers, and they're all finding the same people, I'm using AI completely differently. And it's printing money while everyone else is drowning in noise. Stick with me for the next eight minutes or so, and I'll show you exactly how to do this. But first, let me blow your mind with what's really happening right now. Every investor in America thinks they're getting smarter with AI, artificial intelligence. They're using algorithms to predict who's getting divorced. Who's behind on taxes? Who's about to sell?

• 2:13Speaker 04

  The targeting is surgical. But here's what's insane. They take this million dollar intelligence and do what? They send a postcard that says, "We buy houses fast." It's like using a Ferrari engine in a horse-drawn carriage. Are you one of these people? Are you using AI to find sellers but then reverting to 1995 marketing? If yes, you're about to feel really stupid. And then, really smart. There are a thousand investors or so in your city just pulled the same motivated seller list that you did. And they're all mailing the same people, right now, today. And every single one of those sellers is about to get bombarded with identical messages. But wait, it gets worse. Remember when pulling a hot list meant something?

• 2:58Speaker 04

  When you had to know a guy, pay a premium, hustle for data? Well, those days are dead. The New Deal Machine, Realflow, RE Simply, they hand everyone the same list in seconds. Skip tracing, it used to be an art. Now it's a button. The secret sauce became ketchup. Everyone's got it. But here's the part that'll blow your mind. While AI is making everyone's targeting identical, it's also creating the biggest opportunity in real estate history. And 99% of investors are missing it completely. Let me prove it with my Vegas experiment. Instead of mailing 10,000 generic postcards like everyone else, I found 27 people who were absentee owners, had vacant houses, were behind on their property taxes,

• 3:43Speaker 04

  and had sewer leens attached to their property. Four problems, big pain, max motivation. Then, here's where I did something different. I used AI to write them a letter. Not just any letter. A letter that got inside their heads, that spoke to their 3:00 AM thoughts. Their "why does this always happen to me" moments. Their secret shame and overwhelm. Here's an example of what AI wrote. And this is word for word. "Hi Shane, I hope this finds you well. My name's Matt and I live here right in Las Vegas, not some big company out of state. And your name recently came across my desk. It says you might own a vacant..." property are behind on your taxes and maybe have a sewer lien. If my info is off, please forgive me.

• 4:26Speaker 04

  But if this is you, I just want to say you're not alone. I see this all the time. I actually went through something similar a few years ago. So I know the stress, the letters piling up, the endless what ifs. It can feel heavy, dot, dot, dot. You get the picture? I sent 27 of these letters, handwritten, looks like birthday cards. Got three phone calls. That's an 11% response rate. Industry average, 0.5%. But here's the crazy part. Two of the callers were actually suspicious. They said, how do you know so much about my situation? The third caller said, you know, this really stood out. It made the most sense to call you first because I felt like you were really in touch with what I was feeling. One deal, $26,000 profit.

• 5:11Speaker 04

  Total cost, $120 in letters. Now ask yourself this. When's the last time someone called you and said your marketing made them feel understood? When's the last time a seller was suspicious because your message was too personal? Never, right? That's because you're still playing the old game. But wait, there's more. While I'm telling you this story, guess what's happening? Every major brokerage is racing to use predictive AI. Ryan Serhant, predictive analytics. Keller Williams, AI-powered everything. Even traditional brokerages are going all in. The targeting arms race is already over. Everyone has the same weapons.

• 5:51Speaker 04

  So if everyone's got AI targeting, if everyone's finding the same motivated sellers, how do you win? Here's what most people don't get. The opportunity isn't better targeting. The opportunity is better communication. Look, everyone else is using AI like a fancy highlighter just to mark who to contact. But you can use AI like a smart pencil to actually write messages that connect. Same tool, completely different game. And here's why this matters right now. While everyone's focused on getting better lists, the communication gap is getting wider and wider. The more people that use generic AI targeting, the more valuable the personal AI communication becomes. This window, it won't stay open forever. You want more proof this works?

• 6:36Speaker 04

  Handwritten notes get 27 times higher response rates than postcards. Story-based messaging outperforms features by 300%. Video messages get opened 96% of the time. But get this, most investors think they need $50,000 in a direct mail budget to compete. Wrong. I'm about to show you how to outperform their mass campaigns with pocket change. But first, let me tell you about the biggest AI disaster in real estate history. Zillow spent hundreds of millions letting AI buy houses. They lost $300 million, killed the program, wiped out $9 billion in stock value. The CEO basically said, "We can't predict the future as well as we thought." The lesson? AI is a tool, not a brain.

• 7:21Speaker 04

  Use it wrong, it'll destroy you. Use it right, it'll make you rich. So here's how the smart money is playing this. They're using AI for hyper-personalization, not mass automation, not efficiency, effectiveness. Here, let me show you exactly how. Strategy number one: handwritten notes with AI brains. Platforms like MyThanks.io write thousands of handwritten letters. Real pen ink, real quirks, real connection, but powered by AI psychology. Now, ChatGPT can write these letters if you know the right prompts, but here's what I actually use. I found this tool that basically reads minds. It asks you a few questions about your situation, your market, your seller's problems,

• 8:04Speaker 04

  and then it crafts the perfect letter every single time. No prompt engineering, no trial and error, no generic fluff. It's like having a psychology PhD and a master copywriter all rolled into one. I'm talking about Ojoy.ai, and honestly, it's become my secret weapon. You can take it for a test spin for seven days, see how it works. You can do that for free. And after that, it's 49 bucks a month, which, I don't know, it might sound like a lot to you, or until you realize that one deal will pay for the thing for like Fifty years. I've been using it for months now and it hasn't missed yet. Old school charm meets new school smarts. Strategy number two, story-based messaging. Instead of "we buy houses fast",

• 8:47Speaker 04

  try "I bought Maria's house down the street after her husband passed. Helped her retire by the beach. I'd love to help you next." Now you're not a stranger. You're a neighbor with a mission. Can you feel the difference? Ojoy can do that really well, too. Strategy number three, one-to-one video messages. Record once, personalize with AI. Hey, John, saw your house on Main Street. I just offered to buy the house around the corner. Would you like an offer too? People do business with people, not logos. And AI can ironically help you be more human, not less. But here's what's really crazy. While I'm teaching you this, your competition is probably sending out another batch of "we buy houses" postcards to the same people you're targeting

• 9:31Speaker 04

  with the same boring message. This is your chance to stand out. Look, AI isn't going anywhere. Every day, it gets smarter, faster, and cheaper. You can either let it make you irrelevant, or you can use it to become irreplaceable. The choice is yours, but choose fast. Because here's the truth. Everyone's got data now. Everyone's got AI targeting. But not everyone has you. Your story, your voice, your care. In a world where every investor is chasing the same leads with the same tools, the only real edge is how you show up. Want to create letters like mine that actually connect and generate real results? Go check out ojoy.ai. It nails it on the first take almost every time.

• 10:15Speaker 04

  Easy to use, focused on persuasion, understands human psychology. And by the way, they are paying me nothing to promote this. It's just a good tool that you deserve to know about. Don't just play the game, change how it's played.

• 10:34Speaker 05

  Hope is not a financial strategy. Let's get back to work.

• 10:39Speaker 04

  While everyone's panicking about Florida's housing crash, the smartest money in America is quietly positioning for what comes next. And what they're seeing has nothing to do with falling prices. In fact, if you think this is just about Florida being too expensive, you're missing the real story entirely. What's happening here right now, it's a preview of what's about to hit every boomtown in America. Texas, Arizona, the Carolinas, they're all showing the exact same early warning signs Florida showed two years ago. And the people who understand what's really going on, they're about to make fortunes while everyone else gets left behind. So what's the real reason buyers have vanished? And more importantly, what happens next? On the surface, it looks simple.

• 11:24Speaker 04

  Prices went too high. Now they're falling. And everyone's waiting for the next 2008. But that's not what's happening at all. The market's being shaped behind the scenes by forces that most buyers and even most real estate agents never see coming. The pros aren't watching home prices. They're watching something completely different. And here's where it gets weird. Some of the biggest problems everyone thinks are getting worse, they're actually being solved behind the scenes. If you want to position yourself for what's coming next, you need to know what they know. Here's the truth that nobody's talking about. First, the insurance nightmare and what's hiding in the shadows. I mean, picture this. You finally find your dream home in Tampa. $500,000. You can afford the mortgage.

• 12:06Speaker 04

  Then you get the insurance quote, $11,759 a year. That's nearly $1,000 every single month, just for insurance. Before you even turn the lights on. Florida has the most expensive homeowners insurance in America. And it's not even close. And get this. Three companies already told you no because of your roof age. Progressive, Farmers, and AAA have all fled the state or dramatically reduced coverage. The fourth company? They want you to replace the entire roof before they'll even consider covering you. That's another $25,000 out of pocket. Up front, after hurricanes Ian, Helene, and Milton caused... Over $113 billion in damages, dozens of insurance companies have fled the state entirely. No insurance, no mortgage.

• 12:50Speaker 04

  That means deals die on the spot. Even cash buyers are walking away. Nobody wants to risk everything in a state where one storm could wipe them out. But here's what nobody's talking about, and this changes everything. While everyone thinks the insurance crisis is getting worse, something remarkable is happening behind the scenes. Over 30 insurance carriers have quietly returned to the Florida market since 2023. Citizens Insurance, the state's insurer of last resort, has actually dropped from 1.4 million policies to under 1 million as private companies return. Some areas are even seeing rate decreases for the first time in years. Barrier islands are down 25%. Inland areas, flat to 10% decreases. The pros know this. Retail buyers don't.

• 13:35Speaker 04

  And that gap in knowledge is creating opportunity. But the insurance story is just the beginning. Wait until you see what's happening with HOA fees. And this is the HOA fee explosion. Tampa HOA fees jumped 17.2% in just one year, now averaging over $614 per month. Orlando hit 16.7%. Fort Lauderdale, 16.2%. But older condos? That's where it gets really ugly. After the Surfside collapse, Florida passed Senate Bill 4D, requiring massive structural inspections and reserve funding by the end of 2024. I'm talking about special assessments of $50,000, $80,000, even $100,000 per unit, due immediately. At Orlando's Regency Gardens condominiums,

• 14:20Speaker 04

  residents faced up to $22,000 special assessments, while monthly fees nearly tripled overnight. One condo owner in Miami Beach told me her monthly fees went from $400 to $1,200 overnight, plus a $75,000 special assessment for structural repairs. This affects nearly 1 million condo owners across Florida. And don't forget the CDD fees, the Community Development District fees in new subdivisions, another $200 to $300 per month on top of everything else. For buyers, the math just doesn't Work anymore. It's not the sticker price that kills you. It's the endless, rising monthly costs that never stop. And if you think those fees are bad, what I'm about to show you about the construction time bomb

• 15:02Speaker 04

  gonna blow your mind. And I'm talking about the hidden construction crisis. Here's something that should terrify you. Homes built during the 2020-22 frenzy are showing serious defects. We're talking cracked foundations, water intrusion, mold, improperly stalled roofs. But listen to this, Florida shortened the window for construction defect lawsuits from 10 years to seven years in 2023. Why? Because there were so many claims coming in from the building boom that the system was overwhelmed. Think about the timing. Homes built in 2020 through 22 during the frenzy now have just five to six years left for owners to discover and sue for major structural defects. That's a ticking time bomb for anyone buying these properties.

• 15:45Speaker 04

  In one central Florida subdivision, homeowners discovered massive structural defects requiring complete remediation while people were still living there. The builder paid out rather than face trial. We're talking $80,000 per homeowner in settlements. And then the fourth thing, the psychology behind the freeze. Here's what's really happening, and this is the part that should terrify every seller in Florida. Buyers have gone on strike, not because they can't afford homes, but because they've lost faith in the entire system. They're sitting there thinking, why would I pay $500,000 for a house that might need a $30,000 roof next year, $12,000 in insurance, $600 in HOA fees, potential construction defects, and could get wiped out by the next hurricane? It's not about the sticker price anymore.

• 16:30Speaker 04

  It's about trust, and once trust breaks, it takes years to rebuild. Look at the comments on any Florida real estate video. Waiting for 30% off, don't catch a falling knife. I'd buy if insurance and HOA weren't killing me. People have mentally checked out until they see real change, and this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. The more people wait, the more inventory piles up, and the more nervous everyone gets. But here's the part that changes everything. This isn't a traditional crash where people can't afford homes. This is a buyer's strike. Where people are choosing not to buy because the entire cost structure has become insane. Florida's inventory has exploded 375% since early 22.

• 17:13Speaker 04

  We now have 172,209 homes for sale, up 22.7% year over year. That's nearly eight months of supply, levels not seen since 2006. But unlike 2008, this isn't banks dumping foreclosures. This is a calculated standoff between buyers and sellers, each waiting for the other to blink first. And strikes end in one of two ways. Either the sellers capitulate and fix the underlying problems, or the buyers eventually give up and accept the new reality. Right now, we're in phase one. Sellers are starting to panic. Builders are throwing incentives at the wall. Some are even converting entire subdivisions to rentals rather than slash prices. But here's what the doomers don't want you to know, and this is where it gets a little crazy.

• 17:58Speaker 04

  And it's what should keep you up at night if you live anywhere else. Florida isn't unique. It's just first, Texas inventory is surging. Arizona prices are falling. The Carolinas are showing the same warning signs Florida showed two years ago. In every cycle, there's a canary in the coal mine. Right now, Florida is that canary. Tampa's net migration dropped from 34,000 people in 2023 to just 10,224, a 70% decline. Orlando went from gaining 16,000 people to essentially flat. And then look at this, Miami is actually losing 101,000 domestic residents while gaining 553,000 international residents.

• 18:39Speaker 04

  That creates completely different market dynamics that sophisticated investors are exploiting. The pandemic migration boom that fueled this entire run, it's over. If you want to know what's coming to your local market in the next 12 to 18 months, watch Florida closely because whatever happens here, happens everywhere else next. Now let's flip the script because this is where it gets really wild. The mainstream narrative says Florida is doomed. Prices will never recover. Nobody will ever want these homes. And here's what the doomers don't want you to know. In 2010, Everyone said the exact same thing about Florida. Nobody will ever want these overbuilt subdivisions. Prices will never recover. Sound familiar? The smart money bought everything they could get their hands on.

• 19:23Speaker 04

  Those worthless homes in Cape Coral that nobody wanted? They tripled in value by 2020. The investors who bought when everyone else was running scared? They became multimillionaires. Here's what the smartest investors, the top 0.1%, are really thinking right now. These homes will get absorbed. Maybe not at last year's prices, and maybe not right away. But builders aren't going to let billions in inventory rot. And remember that insurance recovery story I mentioned? While retail buyers are still panicking about insurance, the fundamentals are actually improving. The pros see this, the public doesn't. History shows us Vegas after 2010, Phoenix after 2011, Florida itself after 2008.

• 20:05Speaker 04

  Once the dust settles, homes get absorbed, prices recover, and new waves of buyers and investors make fortunes. You don't want to be the person who missed the opportunity because you only listened to the panic. Let's get next level because this is where the real money gets made. While regular buyers are paralyzed, here's what's actually happening behind the scenes. Institutional investors have pulled back 90% from their 2021-22 buying levels. But they're not gone. They're waiting, watching, ready to pounce when prices hit their target levels. Builders are playing a completely different game than you think. Instead of slashing prices across the board, they're converting entire subdivisions to rentals rather than sell at a loss,

• 20:46Speaker 04

  offering massive rate buy downs and incentives to protect their price floors, making bulk deals with investors behind the scenes. Some are even becoming landlords themselves, renting out finished homes until demand returns. Lennar's CEO admitted in March 2025 that Florida buyers needed more help than anywhere else in the country. Translation: They're willing to lose money short term to avoid crashing the comps. Now, here's something huge that's flying under the radar. Florida's 2023 insurance reforms have successfully reduced the litigation that drove 79% of national insurance lawsuits despite Florida representing only nine percent of claims. This lawsuit abuse reduction is already generating cost savings being passed to consumers.

• 21:31Speaker 04

  While everyone thinks the insurance crisis is getting worse, the structural problems are actually being solved. And I think I can guess what you're thinking. Who would buy right now with these insane fees? How do I know the market isn't going to crash further? What if I buy a lemon or get stuck with crazy insurance costs? You're not alone. These fears are real, and they're exactly why the market is choked. But here's what separates the pros from everyone else. They're not looking for the perfect deal. They're looking for opportunity when fear is highest and everyone else is sitting on the sidelines. Every downturn creates two groups. First, people who lose everything because they panic. And second, people who position themselves to win big because everyone panics.

• 22:15Speaker 04

  They see what's coming next. The question is, which group do you want to be in? Here's exactly what to watch for. I mean, write these down, because these are the turn signals. First thing is when inventory peaks and starts dropping for three consecutive months. The second thing is when citizens insurance policy count continues dropping below one million. It's already happening. Third thing is when more insurance carriers announce Florida market reentry. And then when you start seeing institutional buyers quietly re-entering the market. And then when migration numbers start ticking back up. And then when construction defect lawsuits start declining. We're not there yet, but we're getting close. Some of these signals are already flashing green. The smart money isn't trying to time the exact bottom.

• 22:59Speaker 04

  They're positioning themselves to capitalize on the turn when it comes. So here's the bottom line. Florida is not doomed. It's just the first to feel the pain and the first to set up the next cycle of opportunity. The people who understand what's really happening aren't panicking. They're not buying into the doom headlines. They're studying the patterns, watching the signals, and getting ready to move when the time is right. Because here's what history teaches us. The biggest fortunes are made when everyone else is paralyzed by fear. Florida went through this exact cycle after 2008. People who bought when everyone said it was finished, they made generational wealth. The same opportunity is setting up right now. Not just in Florida, though, but in every market that's about to follow the same pattern.

• 23:44Speaker 04

  Look, I've been tracking these patterns for over two decades now. I know, I don't look that old. But I called the 2018 correction. I called the 2020 boom, and I'm calling this transition right now. If you want to stay ahead of what's coming, not just in Florida, but in every market that's about to follow the same pattern, you need to be getting the real data, not just headlines. Stay connected here, because the next six months are going to separate the people who saw this coming from the people who got blindsided. The opportunity is coming. The question is, will you be ready for it?

• 24:20Speaker 04

  And that wraps up the Epic Show. If you found this episode valuable, who else do you know that might too? There's a really good chance you know someone else who would. And when their name comes to mind, please share it with them and ask them to click the subscribe button when they get here, and I'll take great care of them. God loves you, and so do I. Health, peace, blessings, and success to you, a material. Living the dream.

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