About this episode
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4lfOy1s The episode reviews continued heightened, two-way intraday market volatility tied to the Iran military operation, highlighted by a Dow swing from sharply down to closing up over 200 points and oil’s brief spike near $115 before falling back to about $83–$84 after comments that the war may be nearly over. David argues these violent moves reflect short-term trading, hedging, and speculation, and advises long-term investors to avoid reacting. He notes the 10-year yield fell to about 4.1%, technology led while financials lagged, and last week’s index declines were modest despite some weak breadth. He discusses oil and VIX backwardation, shipping/insurance uncertainties in the Strait, debate over targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, and risks of bad policy if oil rises. Bahnsen also cites a “horrific” jobs report with unemployment at 4.4% and significant job losses and revisions, and previews CPI Wednesday. 00:00 Volatility Backdrop 00:54 Wild Market Reversal 01:47 Oil Spike Explained 04:10 Ignore The Noise 04:31 Rates Sectors Breadth 06:18 Backwardation Signals 07:42 War Timeline Shipping 09:57 Policy Risks Oil 10:42 Jobs Report Shock 12:33 Energy CPI Outlook 13:35 Wrap Up Stand Pat Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com