UFO Over the Bass Triangle? The Disappearance of Fred Valentich

On October 21st, 1978, 20-year-old pilot Fred Valentich disappeared while flying across the Bass Strait, off the southeastern coast of Australia. Moments before vanishing, Fred described a bizarre encounter over the radio. He claimed an unidentified object seemed to be harassing him – moving at impossibly fast speeds, disappearing and then reappearing, and hovering above his Cessna. His final transmission? “That strange aircraft is hovering on top of me again. It is hovering, and it’s not an aircraft.” Help us reach 10k followers on Instagram! @⁠theconspiracypod⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

• 0:07Speaker 00

  It’s January 1979 in Melbourne, Australia. A man named Guido Valente writes a letter to the Department of Transport with a unique, but heartfelt request. “Three months earlier, his 20-year-old son Frederick disappeared while piloting a small plane over the Bass Strait. Right up until the very moment he vanished, Fred was in radio contact with a flight service officer describing everything he saw.

• 0:38Speaker 00

  According to Fred, some kind of object began following him during his flight, almost harassing him. At first, Fred thought it was another aircraft, but as it made impossibly precise movements and flew at incredible speeds, Fred grew less certain of what exactly he was dealing with. Now, his dad Guido hopes the government will release that tape of Fred’s last conversation with air traffic control. See, Fred left many things behind in the warm family home they all shared, but Guido says one thing the Valente’s don’t have is any recording of Fred’s voice.

• 1:20Speaker 00

  Guido’s request is granted, on one condition: he can never share the audio with anyone. And Guido keeps his promise till his dying day. By then, his son Fred has become a figure in Australian folklore. Everybody knows about the young pilot who seemingly encountered a UFO and vanished.

• 1:47Speaker 00

  Eventually, the transcript of Fred’s final transmission is released to the public, and suddenly, everyone can see in black and white exactly what Fred says he saw: his last known words, quote, “That strange aircraft is hovering on top of me again. It is hovering, and it’s not an aircraft.” Welcome to Conspiracy Theories Spotify Podcast. I’m Carter Roy. New episodes come out every Wednesday. We would love to hear from you, so if you’re listening on the Spotify app, swipe up and give us your thoughts, or check us out on Instagram at the conspiracy pod.

• 2:30Speaker 00

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• 4:45Speaker 00

  On the morning of October 21st, 1978, in the Melbourne neighborhood of Avondale Heights, Fred Valentich dresses for work. At 20 years old, he still lives at home with his parents, Guido, and Alberta, along with his three younger siblings. They’re a tight-knit Italian family, and Fred’s especially close with his dad. Guido provides moral and financial support for his son’s greatest passion: flying. Fred already has his private pilot’s license. He’s earned his instrument rating, allowing him to fly at night, but he’s far from done. He spent years studying for flight exams, logging hours in the cockpit, and meeting

• 5:29Speaker 00

  with his tutor, all so he can one day become a commercial airline pilot. That’s his endgame. For now, he makes some money as a shop assistant at the local army disposals firm. Today, he’s on the clock until noon. After that, he has to race over to his meteorology class for hours of grueling lectures. It takes up his entire Saturday afternoon, but Fred never complains. People have doubted him before, and he wants to show everyone what he’s capable of. When class lets out around 4 p.m., he finally gets a chance to relax and eat. He’s been running on mostly coffee and OJ all day.

• 6:11Speaker 00

  We don’t know for certain what Fred’s next stop is, but multiple friends and family members later suggest it’s McDonald’s. And according to his girlfriend Rhonda, Fred’s typical order is two Big Macs, two cheeseburgers, one filet of fish, fries, and a soda. Then he drives over to the beach, throws his car in park, and stares out at the waves while he eats.

• 6:39Speaker 00

  After that, well, we know this much. Fred says he’s planning a solo flight out to King Island and back. It’s about a 70-minute trip each way. He’ll be leaving from the Marabyn Airport, so first things first, he attends a weather briefing and submits his flight plan. All standard procedures. Fred’s plan states that he’ll be flying below 5,000 feet and that he’ll pass a checkpoint along the way, Cape Otway. After that, he’ll turn out over the waters of the Bass Strait. The document also notes that this flight will be a night flight. The sun will set during the first leg of Fred’s trip. That’s okay, he’s made this trip several times before.

• 7:24Speaker 00

  The weather is good and the skies are clear. He’s also certified to fly in the dark, using his instrument panels to guide him, but notably, he hasn’t flown this route at night yet. This will be his first time. And he doesn’t exactly love flying over water. If he has to bail for any reason, he’s not a strong swimmer. At 6:19 p.m., Fred takes off in his Cessna 182L. Then, at exactly 7 p.m., as he passes Cape Otway, Fred grabs his radio. He reports his location to flight service officer Steve Robey. He’s right on schedule.

• 8:06Speaker 00

  Following the flight plan he submitted earlier, Fred steers his plane out over the Bass Strait, headed toward King Island. Fred isn’t expected to report to Steve again until he touches down there at 7:28, but at 7:06, just six minutes after setting out over the water, Fred radios again. He tells Steve he sees what looks like a large aircraft flying over him. It has four bright lights, which he likens to a plane’s landing lights, the kind that come on to light up a runway, but of course, they’re over a large stretch of water. Fred also relays that the object is going fast, so he asks Steve if whatever it is

• 8:50Speaker 00

  might belong to the Air Force. But Steve says, “No. Not only are there no reports of the Air Force flying anything nearby, there are no reports of any aircraft flying near Fred.” A minute later, Fred declares the object is passing over him, maybe 1,000 feet above, but Steve repeats that there should not be any aircraft in his vicinity. At 7:08, Fred radios again, saying, “It seems to me that he’s playing some sort of game. He’s flying over me two, three times at a time at speeds I could not identify.” On the ground, Steve Robey can hear that Fred is genuinely stressed.

• 9:33Speaker 00

  There’s no doubt in his mind that this pilot is experiencing something out of the ordinary. Nobody is panicking, but Steve grows concerned for his pilot. Trying to make sense of what’s happening, he asks Fred to describe the object. It’s moving so quickly that it’s not an easy task, but Fred reports this much: “As it’s flying past, it’s a long shape.” Steve presses for more information, and Fred adds, “The thing is just orbiting on top of me. Also, it’s got a green light and sort of metallic, like it’s all shiny on the outside.”

• 10:13Speaker 00

  Just as he’s gotten a better look at the mysterious object, it vanishes for a moment. Fred catches sight of it off to the southwest, but then he encounters a bigger problem: engine trouble. He reports to Steve that his engine is, quote, “rough idling.” He states his intent to press onward toward King Island. Before the two of them can make a plan to get Fred safely on land, Fred cuts in one last time. He claims the mysterious aircraft is back. At 7:12 p.m., he makes his final radio transmission. He says, quote, “That strange aircraft is hovering on top of me again.

• 10:57Speaker 00

  It is hovering, and it’s not an aircraft.” The last thing Steve Robey hears through Fred’s radio is 17 seconds of an unidentified sound, almost like a metallic clanging, and then silence.

• 11:17Speaker 00

  Moments later, Steve Robey jumps into action. He has no idea what to think of this strange conversation, but he knows something is wrong and Fred could be in danger. When 7:28 PM comes and goes, the time when Fred should have landed in King Island, the search begins. Over at the King Island Airport, two planes take off around 8 o'clock to search the immediate area. The officer in charge, Brian Jones, hops aboard one of the search planes as an observer. He notes that visibility is unlimited. He can see lights along the coast at Cape Otway, including the flashing lights from the lighthouse there. Even though it's dark now, he can clearly see boats in the water.

• 12:02Speaker 00

  He's flying low, around 1,000 feet, so if there's any wreckage from Fred's plane, he should be able to spot it. But he doesn't. No one finds any sign of Fred or his Cessna. Back at home in Avondale Heights, Guido Valentich is still awake. He expected Fred to be home by now. Guido paces around to distract himself. He switches on the radio. That's when he hears a breaking news update about a search for a plane. Right away, he wonders if it could possibly be Fred's plane they're talking about. His fears are confirmed when two police officers knock on his door.

• 12:44Speaker 00

  They tell him Fred and his Cessna are presumed missing, but they assure Guido an extensive search is already underway. A few hours later, Fred's girlfriend Rhonda Rushton rolls out of bed to the sound of her father, turning on the local news. The leading story is about a pilot who disappeared over the Bass Strait. Even though Fred's name is withheld for now, Rhonda knows in her gut that the story is about him. As she later tells Patrick Stokes on the podcast The History Listen, this happens at about 6:00 AM. She's still wearing her going out clothes from the night before. See, Rhonda believed Fred was coming to pick her up the previous evening.

• 13:28Speaker 00

  According to her, they had made very clear plans to go out on a date once he got back from King Island. Since he never showed up, she's been awake all night worrying. However, that detail about his plans with Rhonda will become one of many that makes Fred's case so mysterious. Because Fred seemingly did tell Rhonda they would go out together, but he also made conflicting plans with his family. Guido tells investigators about this discrepancy when they interview him on October 25. Guido says Fred was supposed to come home as soon as he returned to the mainland.

• 14:10Speaker 00

  Guido also tells officials something else they find quite interesting. Fred is a firm believer in UFOs. According to his dad, this has been going on for some time, and Fred's interests had only gotten more pronounced over the past year or so. Guido just wants to help the investigators with their search for his son, but his comments will inadvertently send them down a very specific path. Because when you read all of the files on the Fred Valentich case, which have since been declassified and released to the public, it's not hard to read between the lines.

• 14:50Speaker 00

  From this point on, the case is no longer a straightforward question of where did Fred go? Now it's, did Fred really see a UFO? Or did he just make one up?

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• 16:11Speaker 00

  After 20-year-old pilot Fred Valentich goes missing over Australia's Bass Strait and intense search begins. It involved at least eight ships and a surveillance aircraft, as well as divers, but after four days, they haven't found a single speck of wreckage. And that's primarily what they're after. Investigators believe Fred probably crash-landed into the water. If that's true, though, they also think there must be evidence bobbing on the surface. It's definitely concerning when they can't find anything. Now, the team does locate an oil slick, but lab analysis determines it's not from a plane.

• 16:51Speaker 00

  So, by October 25th, 1978, the investigation pivots. Officials from the Department of Transport dig into Fred's history as they speak to his friends and loved ones. There's already mounting pressure to solve this disappearance, and not just from the Valentich family. Because, well, let's face it, it sounds like Fred encountered some kind of strange object during his flight. And that part of the story has already made its way to the press. Newspapers and broadcast news latch onto that angle, that Fred claimed he had a UFO encounter right before vanishing.

• 17:33Speaker 00

  Naturally, that generates a ton of public interest in the case. There are even rumblings that Fred Valentich was abducted by aliens. Again, investigators find no hard evidence of when, or where, or how Fred's plane crashed. They don't even know if that's what really happened. They also theorize that he could still be alive somewhere. He could have continued flying and landed far away from King Island. Perhaps he intentionally disappeared. But why he might do that, and why he would possibly invent such a wild story first, they don't know.

• 18:16Speaker 00

  But that's exactly what they hope to find out. Here's what investigators learn about Fred. Like we mentioned, Fred already had his private pilot license and his instrument rating, but it turns out he was struggling with getting his commercial pilot license, or CPL. It's something he needed in order to apply for his dream job as an airline pilot. He'd already taken his CPL exams twice and failed every subject both times. He'd failed other flying exams as well. Now, it is definitely not unheard of to fail these exams and have to retest. These days, at least one-fifth of those who take the test fail.

• 18:59Speaker 00

  However, investigators think this is an interesting detail because they also learn that Fred has been lying to people about his test scores. He told his dad, his girlfriend, and even his tutor that he was doing better than he really was. Guido believes that Fred wanted to become an airline pilot because he felt like he had something to prove. Reportedly, Fred felt as though some unnamed people out there wanted to see him fail. Whether or not that's true, who can say? But there is some evidence that Fred might have felt a lot of pressure to show everyone what he was truly capable of.

• 19:43Speaker 00

  Back when he was just a kid, Fred joined the Royal Australian Air Force, the RAAF, as an air training corps cadet. When he was old enough, he applied for a position with them as a radio operator, but he was turned down twice because of his low test scores. And not only that, the RAAF considered Fred to be, quote, "low IQ." They suggested he be relegated to "unskilled work only." If Guido's perception of his son is right, then that determination definitely made its mark on young Fred. It also lit a fire under him. Fred continued to work with the RAAF as a volunteer, and he was kind of relentless.

• 20:28Speaker 00

  He kept at it until they took him on as an airman. And when he didn't pass exams, he sought help from a tutor, an Air Force veteran named Mr. Barnes. Fred visited him every Sunday. Barnes says he always thought of Fred as very responsible. Besides being a poor speller, he thinks his pupil was mostly a good student. Fred had what Barnes called "a healthy flight discipline." He believed the young man had what it took to be an airline pilot. Several others back up what Barnes has to say. Old friends and acquaintances from Fred's air training corps days say he was a good flyer, cool under pressure, thoughtful, by the book.

• 21:13Speaker 00

  As for Rhonda, Fred's girlfriend, she'd flown with him plenty of times. She insisted Fred was a wonderful pilot. Once, she says, he flew her out to Newcastle on a whim to visit her favorite uncle. The interviews paint a picture of Fred as a guy who wasn't great at testing, but in practice, he could do the job and do it well. I think we all know the type. But that's not to say Fred never ran into problems in the air. Three months before he went missing, Fred had three notable incidents while flying. Once, he flew into restricted airspace, and on two separate occasions, he deliberately flew into the clouds.

• 21:55Speaker 00

  His files state that, quote, "prosecution was being considered," although it's unclear what kind of prosecution or consequences might have resulted. It's not a good look, but I wouldn't exactly classify Fred as a troublemaker or a dangerous pilot, and investigators don't seem to think he was either. So they have to wonder, why did Fred lie about his plans on the night he vanished?

• 22:26Speaker 00

  I mentioned earlier that Guido believed Fred would be home that night as soon as he returned to Marabyn Airport. We also have his girlfriend Rhonda's conflicting account. She says that on the previous evening, Friday, October 20th, Fred visited her after work. They'd been dating for about five months, and he'd recently given her a friendship ring. According to her, they were supposed to go out the next night, Saturday, to celebrate their anniversary. But Fred broke the news that he had to fly to King Island instead. Apparently, he'd forgotten about their date and overbooked himself. Rhonda says she was dismayed a little bit, but she didn't make a big deal out of it.

• 23:08Speaker 00

  She knows how much Fred loves flying, and having a boyfriend who's a pilot is a source of pride for her. So she told Fred to just bring a change of clothes with him and pick her up once he got back. Now, investigators do note that when they searched Fred's deserted car, they did not find a change of clothes. So either he forgot about the date, again, or he planned to stand Rhonda up, or maybe he never planned to return home at all. Because here's the other thing. Fred's whole story about why he's going to King Island in the first place appears to be another lie.

• 23:52Speaker 00

  Fred told Guido and Rhonda one version, that he was flying out to pick up some crayfish, or crayze, they're similar lobsters, and there are plenty of crayfishers working on King Island. It's feasible that Fred thought he could log some extra flight time and run an errand to earn some money. Except, investigators speak to all of the crayfishers on King Island, and nobody had received an order from Fred, or anybody else flying in on the night of October 21st. What's more, they say it would be odd to show up late on a Saturday night and assume there will still be any crayze left to purchase. They usually sell out earlier in the day.

• 24:34Speaker 00

  Even stranger, Fred gives an entirely different reason for going to King Island on his flight plan. He writes that he'll be picking up passengers and flying them back to Marabyn Airport. Fred also tells this to his briefing officer, Darcy Hogan. Darcy recalls that Fred wasn't sure how many people were waiting for him on King Island, but he did take four extra life vests along, ostensibly for his passengers to wear. Investigators take all of this to mean that Fred lied about the purpose of his flight, only they still aren't sure why he lied.

• 25:15Speaker 00

  Side note, it's worth considering that maybe both stories were true. Maybe he told a half-truth to his dad and Rhonda, and a half-truth to his briefing officer. After all, my team did find a note in the case files stating that some planes did not allow crayfish onboard, which could explain why he wouldn't write that reason into his flight plan. And investigators seem to brush over the fact that one of Fred's higher-ups did actually ask him to bring back a single cray. Meaning, Fred might not have been totally lying about the purpose of his trip. He could have just been leaving out certain details. It's also possible that Fred forgot to call the crayfish order in.

• 26:00Speaker 00

  His own father says that Fred had a good memory, but sometimes overlooked details. There is one more clue that investigators can't really make sense of. Fred never called the King Island Airport to get the runway lights turned on, even though he should have been landing in the dark. He didn't make the request at Marabyn before taking off either, and that's not a small detail. If Fred really is a good flyer, if he really does things by the book, investigators wonder if Fred knew, he'd never be landing there.

• 26:42Speaker 00

  Ultimately, the Department of Transport concludes that if Fred's plane was in an accident, the cause remains undetermined. But, they just aren't certain whether he crashed at all, based on the fact that there were no signs of any wreckage. And the official report seems to make the case that Fred orchestrated an elaborate scheme in order to deliberately disappear. Without explicitly saying so, investigators list evidence suggesting they think Fred made up the story about what he saw during his flight. That perhaps he even wanted to disappear.

• 27:26Speaker 00

  They cite the pressure from his recent test failures, the lies he told to his family, to Rhonda, and to his tutor about his scores. And they point to the inconsistencies in Fred's story about why he was flying to King Island, when he would be back, and what he'd be doing later that night. Again, they don't come out and say it bluntly, but it sounds like investigators believe Fred was either starting a new life somewhere else, or he wanted to die by suicide in a plane crash. Now, let's take a step back. Fred is gone. There's never been any further sign of him in the nearly 50 years since he disappeared. So it's impossible to know what was going on in his head at the time.

• 28:11Speaker 00

  All we have to work with are the facts. And they don't point to any conclusive answers, but the story doesn't end in 1978. Over the years, Fred's story becomes a part of Melbourne's history, or its folklore. His name is never forgotten. Fast forward to 2004. An independent researcher named Keith Bastafield requests the government's case files on Fred Valentich. Like many other Australians, his curiosity has grown over the past two and a half decades, and these files are the stuff of legend. Another researcher apparently saw the physical file inside the Department of Transport

• 28:56Speaker 00

  once, way back in 1982. He said the folder was pretty substantial. So Keith imagines it might hold enough clues to finally solve Fred's disappearance. But the government comes back with disappointing news. Fred's case file has either been lost or destroyed. Either way, they don't have it. For Keith, it's frustrating, but he moves ahead with other projects. Eight years later, in 2012, Keith is deep into researching a totally different story. As he pours over the National Archives index, he comes across what looks like a listing for the Fred Valentich case files.

• 29:38Speaker 00

  They're not online, yet, but it's basically like finding gold. I mean, Keith had been told the files no longer existed, yet here they are, and they contain over 300 pages of information. The National Archives eventually digitizes and uploads the file. It's filled with investigators' notes, interviews, correspondence with Fred's family, and news articles. There's even a clipping about a séance led by a self-proclaimed clairvoyant, which Guido participated in. But it's a few specific pages early in the report that really catch Keith's eye.

• 30:19Speaker 00

  Because they might contain the strongest evidence yet of what really happened to Fred. And their contents aren't widely known. There's a handwritten letter describing the following. "On May 15th, 1983, a boy named Robert Withers was playing on the beach on Flinders Island when he spotted something, some kind of debris, old and corroded, that appeared to have washed ashore. His dad, Arthur, happened to be the airport manager of Flinders Island, which, like King Island, is located in the Bass Strait. When Robert shows the broken-down object to his dad, Arthur thinks it's probably from

• 31:02Speaker 00

  a Cessna 182, the same model Fred was flying when he disappeared four and a half years earlier. Right away, Arthur thought of Fred Valentich and called the authorities. He even sent them the debris." Years later, Keith Bastafield reads about this potential breakthrough in the case files. There are photos of the plane part in question, and Keith notices someone made a note at the bottom of Arthur's letter confirming the part really did come from a Cessna 182. There are also a couple of letters from the Royal Australian Navy's research lab. They identify the debris as an engine cowl flap.

• 31:46Speaker 00

  And importantly, the cowl flap shows a serial number. The number proves the part was made for a Cessna and produced around the time of Fred's disappearance. Meaning, the debris could have come from his plane. But there's no way to prove it came from the exact Cessna Fred was flying. After some time, Arthur Withers changes his mind. He doesn't think it's very likely that this part broke off of Fred's plane. The beach where the debris was found isn't all that close to his flight path. Flinders Island is in the Bass Strait, but it's over 200 miles east of King Island.

• 32:30Speaker 00

  And experts don't think the cowl flap would float for very long. It would probably sink down to the seabed. Back in the 80s, investigators asked the Navy's researchers, is it possible for this debris to travel across the ocean floor all that way? And the researchers responded, yes. In the four and a half years between Fred's disappearance and the debris discovery, there had been some really strong currents between the islands. They thought it was possible. But there's another possible answer. Arthur, who, again, works at the closest airport, told the Herald Sun that something had occurred to him.

• 33:12Speaker 00

  He recalled two other Cessna 182s that had recently lost an engine cowl flap during takeoff. Okay, at this point in the story, I am wondering what kind of testing can be done on that cowl flap, right? Forty years have now passed since it was found on the beach. Forty years for science to progress. Surely there's some way to know at least how long that engine part spent in salinated water. Well, it turns out, somebody else poses the same question. His name is Richard Valentich. And yes, he's Fred's little brother. Richard was 12 when Fred vanished, and he still remembers when his mother woke him

• 33:55Speaker 00

  up to break the bad news. Once Keith Pastnerfield brings all of this new information to light, Richard lobbies to have the cowl flap analyzed in a lab. But it turns out, nobody knows where the part went. Somewhere along the way, it went missing, and unlike the case files, it never shows up again. For many who followed the story, the evidence and testimony gathered is sufficient to close the book on what became of Fred. He most likely crashed into the waters of the Bass Strait at dusk. If you ask investigators, Fred may have had reason to intentionally disappear, but if

• 34:38Speaker 00

  you ask Fred's brother, Richard, he doesn't agree. In 2013, he gives an interview to the TV show The Unexplained Files. He points out that there are much easier ways for somebody to disappear if they want to. Staging a UFO sighting and flying off somewhere undetected in a plane that's never seen again? Well, that's a pretty elaborate scheme to pull off. And yes, it's natural for family members to reject the idea that their loved ones wanted to leave them. But Richard does bring up an important point. If Fred wanted to start over, there were a million easier ways to do it.

• 35:20Speaker 00

  Investigators also mentioned the possibility that Fred wanted to die by suicide. But even if that's true, the theory still doesn't really answer the question, why would he invent a story about a mysterious flying object? Because that seems to be what the investigators on his case were insinuating, that he fabricated the UFO encounter, that he was obsessed with flying saucers and alien lore, and that Fred wanted to be remembered as a guy who was abducted. Their files present the Volentiches as a whole family that was into UFOs. So in their eyes, the case is closed. But how much of a believer was Fred, really?

• 36:05Speaker 00

  And how much did the government simply promote that theory to fit the story they wanted to tell?

• 36:18Speaker 02

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• 36:46Speaker 03

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• 37:17Speaker 00

  Shortly before Fred Volentich disappears on October 21st, 1978, he describes an encounter with a mysterious object. It can fly at incredible speeds, outmaneuver him, hover over him. It can essentially disappear and reappear. It has four bright lights and one green light. It's metallic. It shouldn't have been flying in that airspace at all. And Fred's final words over the radio were, "It's not an aircraft." I should point out that Fred never used the word UFO during his last flight, but most people assume that's what he's talking about. The press, his dad Guido, even the official investigation mentions UFOs on page after page.

• 38:02Speaker 00

  In the end, Australia's Department of Transport concludes that Fred's strong interest in UFOs may have played a role in his disappearance, or at least, how his disappearance played out. Almost like an alien abduction heard over the radio in real time. That has inspired a theory that perhaps Fred wanted it to sound like that's what was happening. But what did the investigation actually uncover? Well, like I mentioned, Guido Valentich admits early on that Fred believed UFOs were real. The way his dad tells it, Fred had actually seen a UFO the year before he vanished.

• 38:44Speaker 00

  First, his mother Alberta saw something she couldn't explain, so she called out to Fred. He ran over and reportedly saw it too. He was apparently convinced both of them had seen a UFO. Further, Guido claims Fred kept news clippings about alleged sightings. He'd read Chariots of the Gods, the 1968 Eric Von Daniken book that promotes the ancient aliens theory. And Fred confided in his family that through his work with the RAAF, he'd laid eyes on some of the government's top-secret UFO files. Guido doesn't offer any more information about that, except to say Fred was tight-lipped,

• 39:29Speaker 00

  as if he was respecting the confidentiality of those files. Based on what Guido says, it sure sounds like Fred is obsessed with UFOs. But here's what investigators learn from everybody else they talk to. Fred's girlfriend Rhonda knows he collected articles about UFOs, but she calls Fred's interest in them average. She thinks his interest was peaked earlier in 1978, after watching Steven Spielberg's Close Encounters of the Third Kind. But she insists he wasn't interested in them any more than the next person who loved that film. Close Encounters was released in the U.S. in November 1977, and went on to become the

• 40:13Speaker 00

  third highest grossing film of the year. And it had some tough competition, like, um, the original Star Wars. Roger Ebert called it "one of the great movie-going experiences." It is iconic, awe-inspiring, and consistently ranks pretty high on lists of top sci-fi films of all time. I was a kid when I saw it, and it was like a game changer of what movies were and an entire introduction into the world of the possibility of aliens. Australian audiences had to wait a bit longer to see Close Encounters. It was released there in the spring of 1978. So, to Rhonda's point, it's still on a lot of people's minds by October, when Fred goes missing.

• 40:58Speaker 00

  She does tell investigators one story. Six days before the disappearance, while Fred and Rhonda were on a date, he told her, quote, "If a UFO landed in front of me now, I would go in it, but never without you." Which could mean Fred had UFOs on the brain. Or he was just a 20-year-old guy saying something cute to his girlfriend.

• 41:24Speaker 00

  Investigators go on to ask most of the people they interview if Fred ever talked about UFOs, and most of them say, “No, he never mentioned them.” His friend from the Air Training Corps stated that he and Fred did talk about UFOs every now and then. They both agreed that if humans can build spaceships, then people from other planets probably could too. But, he adds, he doesn’t consider Fred a fanatic. The Department of Transport investigators don’t stop at interviewing Fred’s friends and colleagues. They also talked to several people who didn’t know Fred Valentich at all. Why? Because multiple witnesses claimed they saw strange lights, or even objects in the sky,

• 42:09Speaker 00

  on the night of October 21st, 1978, the same evening Fred disappeared. One man calls in to report that he and his son were driving in the Barwin Heads area, along a peninsula near the Bass Strait. His son saw some kind of object with green and white lights, just like Fred described. But nobody got a good look at it. Whatever it was, flew by too quickly. Another caller, an officer of the RAAF Reserve, says he saw several lights over the water that night too. At the time, he thought it might be a meteor shower, but after hearing Fred’s story,

• 42:52Speaker 00

  he wanted to do his duty and relay his account. Then there’s a report from a Mr. B. Hardiman, a teacher. He writes that he and his wife were traveling along the coast of Victoria when they saw a light rise and steadily fall. It seemed like nothing more than a flare at first, but then this light rose up again, something flares definitely don’t do. Then it appeared to hover in place. They wrote it off, “Oh, it’s just an airplane, what else could it be?” But something was nagging at Hardiman. Like, an airplane wasn’t a good enough explanation, so he too decided to report his sighting,

• 43:36Speaker 00

  which happened to take place on October 21st, around 7:10 PM. Fred’s last radio transmission came in at 7:12. There’s one more person who spotted something strange on the night Fred vanished. As far as we can tell, he doesn’t appear in the official files, even though if Roy Manifold is to be believed, he actually caught a flying object on camera. Roy says he was out near Cape Otway as the sun was setting on October 21st. If you’ll recall, Cape Otway was Fred’s first checkpoint, the one he passed without a problem around 7:00 PM.

• 44:19Speaker 00

  Around that time, Roy, an amateur photographer, was posted up nearby. As the sun went down and the sky took on a brilliant orange hue, he took six photographs. When he got them developed, Roy noticed a weird object in just one of his pictures. It almost looks like a smudge on the lens. There’s a dark blob with a lighter gray cloud around it. Only, it can’t be a smudge on the lens. It’s there in one shot and gone in the next. By this time, Fred’s story has hit the news and it dawns on Roy. Well, there’s a chance he snapped a photo of whatever it was Fred described.

• 45:03Speaker 00

  According to Unresolved Mysteries, the negative is examined multiple times. First, an Australian photo lab determines there are no marks or dirt on it that caused the blob to appear. Next, a photo analysis team concludes that what they’re looking at is actually a metallic flying object. But, as they work with a group of UFO researchers, there is a chance for bias. A third test finds that it’s possible the blob resulted from some kind of error as the photos were developed. But, the answer is inconclusive.

• 45:43Speaker 00

  Notably, Roy Manifold took his photo while his camera lens was pointed out toward the Bass Strait. That’s the large body of water over which Fred disappeared. And it’s been linked to other mysterious disappearances and sightings over the years. In fact, some would refer to that area off the coast of Victoria and stretching over to Tasmania as the Bass Strait Triangle. Which is not exactly triangle-shaped. The name stems from the fact that it’s a hotspot for bizarre disappearances and other mysteries. On October 19th, 1934, a plane dubbed the Miss Hobart went missing during its flight from Tasmania to Melbourne.

• 46:28Speaker 00

  Its last known whereabouts were somewhere over Redondo Island, about six miles south of the tip of Victoria. The Miss Hobart carried not one but 11 people onboard, two crew members and nine passengers. Oddly, the plane was fairly new. The four-engine De Havilland 86 was considered state-of-the-art, and nobody who’d flown it before experienced any issues. An extensive search turned up absolutely nothing. Theories range from a leak in the fuel tank to the pilot losing control. Whatever truly happened, many chalk it up to the eerie energy of the Bass Strait Triangle.

• 47:11Speaker 00

  Perhaps that’s why people believe Fred really could have seen a UFO. It happened in a place where other people experienced unexplained sightings, where others have disappeared without a trace. If you ask Steve Robey, the flight service operator who last spoke to Fred over the radio, he’ll tell you he believes Fred wasn’t making things up. He thinks Fred encountered something out there that night. He just isn’t sure what Fred really saw. If it wasn’t a UFO, well, there have been a few other theories. One is that he witnessed a unique confluence of super-bright stars on a clear night.

• 47:56Speaker 00

  According to a Skeptical Inquirer article by James McGaha and Joe Nickell, Venus was especially bright that night. Using computer models, they say Fred could have also seen Mars, Mercury, and Antares fairly close together above him. When Fred first radioed Steve, he thought he was seeing another aircraft’s landing lights, that kind of plane would turn on during takeoff or landing to light up a runway. But the Skeptical Inquirer points out that Fred may have just had UFOs on his mind. Like Ronda said, Fred had really liked close encounters of the third kind. So, he saw the super-bright planets,

• 48:41Speaker 00

  and in a stressful moment, maybe he jumped to conclusions. Of course, that doesn’t explain the green light or the fast movements of the aircraft Fred claimed to see. Another theory is that Fred got disoriented, and on a clear night over still waters, he was flying his plane upside down without realizing it. Then, he saw his own reflection in the ocean. Mistaking up for down, he believed he was looking at another aircraft. This idea was put forth in the press less than 48 hours after Fred went missing. If a Cessna 182 like Fred’s is upside down, the fuel can’t reach the engine,

• 49:27Speaker 00

  which would explain why Fred was having engine trouble. However, Fred’s conversation with Steve lasted about six minutes. According to a Cessna expert on the television show The Unexplained Files, the plane couldn’t have stayed in the air upside down that entire time. The engine would have given out. It’s another theory that doesn’t check all the boxes. As for Guido Valentich, it’s been widely reported that he actually believed Fred could have been abducted. However, Fred’s little brother Richard says that idea has been blown out of proportion. The uncertainty surrounding Fred’s case obviously hit his family hard, especially his father,

• 50:11Speaker 00

  who tried in every way he knew how to keep his son’s memory alive. Guido wore his missing son’s shirts and socks around the house. Sometimes, he would say it felt like Fred was just out fishing, and he’d be home any moment. He kept Fred’s Fiat and motorbike in good condition, just in case. Every year on the anniversary of the disappearance, Guido would drive Fred’s car to Cape Otway, then he’d park at the lighthouse and watch the Bass Strait for a while. When asked by the press about the possibility of UFOs, Guido seemed to entertain the idea. In a 1981 interview, he said if Fred was abducted,

• 50:54Speaker 00

  then he was probably taken by some highly intelligent extraterrestrial who wouldn’t want to hurt him. In another article, he suggested Fred was probably being held by people from another planet, alive. Guido Valentich passes away in 2000, years after that. Richard tells The Unexplained Files that in his private life, his dad never stated his belief that Fred was abducted. Richard thinks he just considered it a possibility, well, maybe he had to, for his own sake. If you look back into the archives, there’s an interview with Guido from October 24th, 1978,

• 51:39Speaker 00

  three days after Fred went missing. Guido told reporters, “He would rather it be a UFO than a plane crash.” He later explained when it came to UFOs, “It’s the only thing we could believe.” Over the years, Guido offered other explanations too. Like maybe Fred witnessed some kind of secret aircraft being tested. Given what we know about so many other UFO sightings, this theory makes a lot of sense. To be clear, we have no evidence that the RAAF had a top-secret aircraft in the vicinity when Fred disappeared.

• 52:21Speaker 00

  So, if Fred did see something made by human hands that evening, we may never know the truth. Because if it was a government aircraft all along, would they ever admit it now?

• 52:43Speaker 00

  Thank you for listening to Conspiracy Theories. We're here with a new episode every Wednesday. Be sure to check us out on Instagram @TheConspiracyPod. If you're watching on Spotify, swipe up and give us your thoughts. Our sources for today's episode include the Department of Transport Files on Fred's Case, the History Listen Podcast episode, Last Light: The Valentich Mystery, and The Unexplained Files. Until next time, remember, the truth isn't always the best story, and the official story isn't always the truth. This episode was written

• 53:22Speaker 00

  and researched by Mickey Taylor, edited by Justin Sales and Connor Sampson, fact-checked by Lori Segal, and engineered, video-edited, and sound-designed by Alex Button. I'm your host, Carter Roy.

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