What are Trump's Climate Plans?

What has Donald Trump claimed he would do when it comes to environmental policy in the U. S.? What happened during his last administration? And what are the limits on executive powers when it comes to treaties and global agreements? Elizabeth Bomberg, Professor of Politics at the University of Edinburgh, tells us what we can expect when it comes to emissions regulations, drilling, climate research, the Paris Agreement, and so much more. CLICK HERE: Visit our website to see all of our episodes, donate to the podcast, sign up for our newsletter, get free educational materials, and more! To see Civics 101 in book form, check out A User's Guide to Democracy: How America Works by Hannah McCarthy and Nick Capodice, featuring illustrations by Tom Toro. Check out our other weekly NHPR podcast, Outside/In - we think you'll love it! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Speaker 00

  Hosts Thanksgiving with industry-leading quality standards from Whole Foods Market. There are no antibiotics in their meat department, ever, so carve up turkey and spiral-cut ham with peace of mind. Shop organic sides like stuffing mix and cranberry sauce from 365 Brand. And guess what? All their delectable pies are made with no high-fructose corn syrup. Gourmet Thanksgiving flavors with the quality you want, only at Whole Foods Market.

• 0:29Nick Capodice?

  I don't know what I'm doing. Need a break. Forget it, I quit. Escape to Pluto TV.

• 0:34Speaker 02

  This is objectively fantastic.

• 0:36Nick Capodice?

  Relax into the movies and shows you already know and love, all for free. Shwing! Even our news is uplifting.

• 0:42Speaker 03

  You stay classy, San Diego.

• 0:43Nick Capodice?

  Watch Tommy Boy, Crazy Ex Girlfriend, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy, The X-Files, Wayne's World, and so much more. We're not worthy! The best things on TV really are free. You just have to know where to look. Escape to Pluto TV. Stream now, pay never.

• 0:58Speaker 03

  Para los grandes, para los chicos, para los bajos y los altos, los pacifistas, los valientes, para los optimistas y los pesimistas, los que valoran lo de adentro, para los que están lejos, los que no vende lejos, y los que no vende cerca, para los introvertidos y los extrovertidos, para los que piensan y los que hacen, para los que nos mostraron el camino. Coca-Cola, para todos. Compra una Coca-Cola en una tienda cerca de usted.

• 1:31Hannah McCarthy?

  This episode is coming out just a week before former President Donald Trump once again becomes President Trump. Now, Trump laid out plenty of intentions over the course of his campaign. We'll be returning to his day-one promises in an upcoming episode, but for today, we're going to take a closer look at an issue that has long been inciting and activating in this country.

• 2:01Speaker 05

  I'm a 15-year-old climate warrior, spokesperson for my generation, and I'm suing the United States government for violating my constitutional right to a healthy atmosphere.

• 2:09Speaker 02

  Scientists have concluded the growing number of fires is a result of climate change, but some voters still remain skeptical. Our colleague said, "While we're having this discussion, there is no climate crisis."

• 2:23Nick Capodice?

  It's all a hoax. The scientific consensus is clear. Climate change is real. I think there are a substantial number of scientists who have manipulated data.

• 2:33Speaker 02

  You know, all these politicians were talking about the economy. There is no economy. There is no functioning society on a planet that is in ecological collapse.

• 2:41Nick Capodice?

  And so the reality is more people are dying of bad climate change policies than they are of actual climate change.

• 2:48Speaker 02

  Polls show more than 60% of Americans disapprove of President Trump's handling of climate change.

• 3:04Hannah McCarthy?

  This is Civics 101. I'm Hannah McCarthy. I'm Nikita Diche. And I think it's important to note that while I am recording this episode, wildfires, including the most destructive in Los Angeles history, are raging in California. While there is a strong consensus among scientists that climate change increases both the frequency and severity of forest fires, President-elect Trump and other Republicans have already blamed Democratic policies, not climate change, for the devastation. But one way or another, we are definitely talking about the environment here. So looking forward, what has Donald Trump promised to do when it comes to environmental policy in the U.S.?

• 3:49Hannah McCarthy?

  What do we know? What do we not know? We're turning to someone who does know this issue pretty well. Elizabeth Bomberg.

• 3:57Speaker 05

  Yeah, I'm Elizabeth Bomberg, and I'm a professor of environmental politics here in Edinburgh, Scotland. But I'm actually originally from California.

• 4:07Hannah McCarthy?

  All right, so before we take a look to the future, we're going to gaze into the past. We cannot know for certain what President-elect Trump will do when he takes the office again, but we do know what he's done in the past. And real quick, can we just remind everyone? What the president is actually allowed to do. When it comes to climate policy, we can.

• 4:29Speaker 05

  What presidents generally, including President Trump, can do is literally the day they enter office, they can issue a whole series of executive orders. And those aren't legislation, but they are orders that, say, could eliminate certain regulations on environmental protection or climate, or they could eliminate certain sources of funding. And executive orders, while swift and decisive, aren't necessarily long lasting.

• 5:05Hannah McCarthy?

  No, for one, they can be overturned by a new president. Trump signed 220 of them in his first term. President Joe Biden rescinded 62 of those in his first 100 days alone. For another, they can be rendered ineffective by Congress if lawmakers so choose, by failing to provide funding, for example. They are also frequently challenged in court. One other thing that presidents have the power to do, and we'll talk about this later, is join or reject global agreements. And we're talking environmental policy in this episode.

• 5:36Speaker 05

  So what did that look like under the first Trump administration? So I think overall, it would be difficult to characterize his first term as particularly promising for environmental protection or for climate emissions.

• 5:57Speaker 05

  His first term is, in my view, having studied this, better characterized as one dominated by a desire to slash funding for scientific expertise and for research, but also to eliminate many of the really significant environmental protections that the federal government had put in place for the last couple decades. And the third plank of my characterization would

• 6:34Speaker 05

  Be a general hostility towards the idea of climate as a serious threat. He has characterized it in the past and also more recently as a hoax or a scam. So he does not take climate change seriously.

• 6:56Speaker 06

  All of this with the global warming and that, a lot of it's a hoax. It's a hoax. I mean, it's a money-making industry, okay? It's a hoax.

• 7:04Speaker 03

  And this hoax claim definitely stuck, Hannah.

• 7:07Hannah McCarthy?

  Yeah, very much so. And to be clear, climate change is not a hoax. In his first term, Trump opposed policies that limited carbon, mercury, and methane emissions, opposed protections for wildlife and wetlands, and energy efficiency standards. He also shrunk two national monuments, one by 85% and the other by about half, to open the land up for fossil fuel and gas leases. A big motivator here, as Elizabeth pointed out, is that Trump sees a direct contradiction between environmental protection and economic growth.

• 7:44Speaker 05

  He doesn't see these as mutually compatible, and he favors economic growth. I think that's how I would sum that up.

• 7:55Speaker 05

  So he thinks that those who are concerned about climate or want to take really ambitious measures are doing so because they have some other political agenda, or maybe they just don't know the science. Maybe that's what he would say. But if climate change enters his vocabulary, it is inevitably linked to the idea of this is a hoax, or this is a scam, or this has been exaggerated, or this is another element of woke-ism, or something of that sort.

• 8:32Hannah McCarthy?

  So I feel like we do have to mention that Trump has called himself a great environmentalist president.

• 8:38Speaker 06

  But it's true. Number one since Teddy Roosevelt. Who would have thought? Trump is the great environmentalist. Do you hear that, Ed? Do you hear that?

• 8:47Speaker 06

  That's good, and I am, I am, I believe strongly in it.

• 8:51Nick Capodice?

  So Hannah, what exactly is the plan for the future here? Like, we know how Trump feels about environmental policies, we know what he's done in the past. So what does he plan to do with his next term?

• 9:04Hannah McCarthy?

  In terms of Trump's promises or plans to protect or strengthen the environment, here is what we know.

• 9:09Speaker 05

  What he would focus on is policies, say, around tree planting. He has endorsed and said we need to plant more trees, and he wants clean air and water. And he says, you know, the US does have the cleanest water and air of any nation. And while that's not statistically true, it does show that there might be some areas that he wants to strengthen.

• 9:32Hannah McCarthy?

  As far as his other promises go...

• 9:34Speaker 05

  And so what he had promised quite consistently, and probably will deliver on, is that he will do his best to scrap many of these regulations so that industry, and especially above all fossil fuel industries, can get on with their job, as he puts it. Because he wants to expand enormously fossil fuel extraction in all kinds of areas through fracking, which we can talk about later, but also through increased drilling, including on public lands, including in wilderness areas.

• 10:08Nick Capodice?

  So when we hear "drill, baby, drill," Hannah...

• 10:11Speaker 06

  We will drill, baby, drill.

• 10:16Nick Capodice?

  Is this what we're talking about?

• 10:19Hannah McCarthy?

  Yeah, oil from federal lands and water accounts for nearly a quarter of US oil production, and we will talk about current American oil production levels in a bit. And Trump wants to ramp that up and cut regulations on fossil fuel extraction. He also promises to reduce support for low-carbon energy sources.

• 10:38Nick Capodice?

  And by that...

• 10:39Hannah McCarthy?

  We mean. Think solar thermal, geothermal, and nuclear power, wind power, low-carbon biofuels made from algae or plant waste, or zero-carbon fuels like ammonia or hydrogen. Electric vehicles, for the record, fall under this category for Trump as well. He has equated new car emission standards with electric cars themselves, claimed that people could be forced essentially to buy only electric cars. He talks about an electric vehicle mandate that does not exist. Trump also happens to have chosen Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who has made a lot of money from electric vehicles for his new government efficiency department. But so far, Musk is on Trump's side on this.

• 11:21Speaker 06

  And I will end the electric vehicle mandate on day one. Thereby saving the US auto industry from complete obliteration, which is happening right now, and saving US customers thousands and thousands of dollars per car.

• 11:45Hannah McCarthy?

  Trump also vows to revoke the Inflation Reduction Act, which incentivizes the transition to quote-unquote "clean" energy, and, of course, to withdraw from the Paris Agreement.

• 11:59Nick Capodice?

  All right. These are the promises. But you know what I always say about promises, Hannah? From the cremation of Sam McGee, "A promise made is a debt unpaid." And to that, may I add, "May we all be Lannisters."

• 12:14Hannah McCarthy?

  I mean, I'm not entirely sure that's how politicians see it, nor do I think that we should aspire to be Lannisters. But I do take your point, and I do think a lot of American voters care about promises. So what is the near future of American climate policy? We'll get to that in the future, after this break.

• 12:35Nick Capodice?

  But before that break, a reminder that Hannah and I I wrote a book, Holy Cats. It's called A User's Guide to Democracy: How America Works. We think you're gonna need it. Anyways, you can get it wherever you get your books.

• 12:52Nick Capodice?

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• 13:37Nick Capodice?

  I'm dead serious. It's good enough for the yak. I mean, it works really well for the yak, right? It would work for me. And it looks hot. So give the gift of quality this holiday season. Download the Quince app for app exclusive offers or go to quince.com. Get free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. Now available in Canada and the UK as well. And last thing, when Quince asks where you heard about them, let them know it was Civics 101. It's the best way to support the show. All right.

• 14:12Nick Capodice?

  Haven't you out there ever Googled your own name? Like, actually done it? You'll find your address, your phone number, maybe even that police report from the time you went to see Rain Man in the movie theater, but you were underage? Maybe that one's just me. But here's the thing, there are companies called data brokers, whose entire business model is collecting your personal information and selling it to advertisers, to strangers, sometimes to people running scams. And once your data's out there, it just keeps circulating. That is where Incogni comes in. Incogni contacts data brokers on your behalf and sends them ...requests over and over, so your info doesn't just pop right back up. You set it up once and they keep working in the background.

• 14:57Nick Capodice?

  You can even track the progress on a dashboard. And for our listeners, we have an exclusive 60% off an annual Incogni plan. Just go to incogni.com/civics or use the code civics at checkout. There's a link in the episode description. Remember, they can't harm you if they can't find you.

• 15:16Speaker 00

  Host Thanksgiving with industry-leading quality standards from Whole Foods Market. There are no antibiotics in their meat department, ever, so carve up turkey and spiral cut ham with peace of mind. Shop organic sides like stuffing mix and cranberry sauce from 365 brand. And guess what? All their delectable pies are made with no high-fructose corn syrup. Gourmet Thanksgiving flavors with the quality you want, only at Whole Foods Market.

• 15:52Nick Capodice?

  We're back. You're listening to Civics 101. We are talking about the future, specifically what we might expect from President-elect Donald Trump in terms of environmental policy. And Hannah, before the break, you promised me a little something. That is, to tell me what's gonna happen.

• 16:11Hannah McCarthy?

  Well, we're not in the business of forecasting here at Civics 101, but we are in the business of speaking with people who know a lot more about what's going on than we do. That's where Elizabeth Bomberg comes back in. So let's start with a highly likely event.

• 16:28Speaker 05

  A major executive action of Trump's, which is not about domestic policy, but it was to withdraw the US from a really major international climate change agreement called the Paris Agreement.

• 16:45Nick Capodice?

  Okay, we do hear about this one a lot. Two things we gotta take care of here. First off, what is the Paris Agreement?

• 16:54Speaker 05

  The Paris Agreement was signed by nearly 200 countries in 2015, and it's a major United Nations agreement. And this Paris Agreement stipulates that all the countries who sign up for it, including the US, pledge to set national targets and put in place kind of domestic measures that will reduce their own climate emissions. Okay, it's not, it's self-binding. It's not as though a UN officers are going to go in and check. It's voluntary, which is why it was agreed to by 190-something states.

• 17:37Speaker 05

  And the idea is that let countries themselves figure out what can they do to put forward a pledge that collectively will ensure that countries across the globe are able to reach a global emission target that keeps the climate warming to under 2 degrees, or ideally even 1.5.

• 18:05Speaker 06

  All right, and we know that Trump has taken us out of this agreement before.

• 18:09Hannah McCarthy?

  Though Biden did put us right back in when he won the presidency.

• 18:13Speaker 06

  And this agreement, it's not binding. There's no giant penalty for not meeting your targets.

• 18:19Hannah McCarthy?

  No, but promise made, debt unpaid, right? You say you're going to do something. So do you do it? Are you showing that you're a climate leader? Are you going to prove your country to be a source of new environmental technology? A good potential partner? A country other countries want to make deals with? It's the social, political, and economic pressure that keeps this agreement rolling.

• 18:45Speaker 06

  And given that Trump is promising to take us out of this agreement, yet...

• 18:48Nick Capodice?

  Again, what does that actually mean?

• 18:51Speaker 05

  It doesn't alone change what the US is likely to do domestically. There are disadvantages for the US of pulling out. It means we domestically, we lose an incentive to further cut our emissions and share our innovations and work harder to achieve a goal that is good for everyone across the globe. Okay, so we don't get to be a part of that. But it also means more strategically, if you're not a part of that treaty, you no longer have a seat at that table. So you're not able to shape these global targets. So leaving the Paris Agreement, which almost certainly Trump will do,

• 19:33Speaker 05

  this will have slightly negative effects, but it won't be devastating.

• 19:39Hannah McCarthy?

  Before we move on, we do need to touch on one maybe related thing here. There's the Paris Agreement and then there's the UNFCCC.

• 19:49Nick Capodice?

  I'm listening.

• 19:53Speaker 05

  What we don't know is whether the Trump administration will go beyond just leaving this agreement. There is some talk and some of his advisors and some of the more conservative think tanks who have shaped his campaigns and continue to shape his policies. What they would like is for the US to withdraw not just from one agreement, but from the entire UN framework that underpins all climate negotiations, right? That would be much more serious. So that is called the UNFCCC or the UN Framework Convention for Climate Change.

• 20:37Nick Capodice?

  Hold up, is the UNFCCC a treaty? Like a treaty treaty?

• 20:42Hannah McCarthy?

  It is indeed.

• 20:44Nick Capodice?

  So can the president actually pull us out of a treaty agreement? Isn't that like an advice in cons-

• 20:50Speaker 05

  Consent of the Senate thing operative word here being consent. There's some ambiguity whether the Trump administration can pull the US out of the whole framework convention without the support of the Senate because the Senate, your listeners might know the Senate gets to approve whether the US can join a treaty. What we don't know is whether we need Senate approval, two thirds approval, so a big approval to pull the US out of the treaty. So this will be really interesting legally if the Trump administration does try. It wouldn't take place right away, but it's something to watch.

• 21:35Hannah McCarthy?

  All right, moving on, let's drill a little deeper here.

• 21:38Speaker 06

  Drill, baby, drill.

• 21:44Speaker 05

  Drill, baby, drill. Yes, yeah. There's a couple disincentives for companies who might want to drill and one is gaining access to the land, especially if it's public land because much of the drilling and extraction is done in public land. And then what kind of controls and permits and permissions do you need to put in place before you start drilling? So if those are relaxed, then those fossil fuel firms will have an easier time in drilling in more places, including quite pristine wildernesses. So I think we'll see more of that. More of that, though I will say we have had plenty of drilling during Biden's presidency, haven't we?

• 22:28Speaker 05

  Record breaking and ironically fossil fuel firms, energy firms have some of the highest profits. This is not something that the Biden or the Harris campaign made a big deal of, but it is one of the reasons that those who were environmentally or climate very focused voters, including many young voters, did not enthusiastically support the Democrat ticket.

• 22:58Hannah McCarthy?

  Elizabeth did add that this is all complicated by permits that were already issued, disruptions in the fossil fuel supply from Russia, the ongoing war in Ukraine, increased global demand, et cetera, all of which led to an energy crisis. Also, opening areas and providing leases for drilling, that's one thing, but the government cannot control the oil market or whether oil companies choose to drill. Still, drilling was at an all-time high under President Biden. Biden did, very recently, by the way, issue an offshore drilling ban, which Trump promises to revoke on day one.

• 23:34Speaker 06

  They took away 625 million acres of offshore drilling. Nobody else does that. And they think they have it, but we'll put it back. I'm going to put it back on day one. I'm going to have it revoked on day one. We'll go immediately if we need to. I don't think we should have to go to the courts. But if we do have to go to the courts...

• 23:56Nick Capodice?

  And I know we have mentioned it, Hannah, but there are a lot of regulations at play here, right? Regulations that Trump wants to dismantle to allow the fossil fuel industry to ramp things up. So who's in charge of that?

• 24:10Speaker 05

  The Department of Energy traditionally has been in charge and responsible for energy extraction, so rules and also incentives for how the US gets its energy, as well as regulation of how that energy should be extracted and what should happen to the waste from that energy extraction. So here, I think we'll see something quite dramatic, especially if Trump's nominee to lead the Department of Energy, that's Chris Wright, is his nominee, and again, has to be approved.

• 24:49Speaker 05

  But if he is approved, he is himself a climate denier, and also, he's made his millions through fracking. What he has already vowed, as is Trump, is to remove significantly the controls that are now put on how fracking is done.

• 25:10Hannah McCarthy?

  Fracking, by the way, also known as hydraulic fracturing. It's a process that cracks open rocks beneath the surface of the earth to extract trapped natural gas and oil. Fracking is thought to pose a threat to drinking water, both the supply and the cleanliness. It has been tied to increased earthquakes. The process itself, as well as the use of natural gas and oil, also contributes to air pollution. Okay. So we've talked about regulations before. They come from executive branch agencies, and it is Congress that gives those agencies the authority to issue regulations. And environmental regulations are, of course, not exclusive to fossil fuel extraction.

• 25:54Hannah McCarthy?

  We're also talking about emissions, pollutants, all sorts of things that poison or diminish the air, water, and soil.

• 26:02Speaker 05

  What we will probably see in the first couple of days is first, a slashing of funding and support and power for particular regulatory agencies. So one target would be the Environmental Protection Agency. So this is the federal agency that is in charge of protecting humans' health and the environment more generally. And it is the agency that issues regulations that limit the amount of carbon that can be released into the air, or limits the amount of chemicals that can be sprayed, or limits the kind of pollutants that can be dumped in waterways.

• 26:46Speaker 05

  So, you know, basic, but, you know, crucial environmental protection. The EPA, the Environmental Protection Agency, relies on regulations that it can then implement. But these, many of these regulations can be removed by executive order because they're not congressional legislation. It's an executive regulation.

• 27:09Hannah McCarthy?

  Now, just to be clear, there are processes in place when it comes to how regulation happens or goes away. There's a rulemaking procedure governed by law. But as we learned in the previous Trump administration, breaking with common practice does not necessarily amount to breaking the law, especially when the courts are on your side.

• 27:31Nick Capodice?

  On that particular subject, I feel like our episode on the Chevron doctrine might have some useful background. There's a link in the show notes.

• 27:38Hannah McCarthy?

  Yet courts no longer have to defer to executive agency expertise. So they are way more empowered to reject agency regulation.

• 27:48Nick Capodice?

  Haven't you out there ever Googled your own name, like actually done it? You'll find your address, your phone number, maybe even that police report from the time you went to see Rain Man in the movie theater, but you were underage? Maybe that one's just me. But here's the thing, there are companies called data brokers whose entire business model is collecting your personal information and selling it to advertisers, to strangers, sometimes to people running scams. And once your data's out there, it just keeps circulating. That is where Incogni comes in. Incogni contacts data brokers on your behalf and sends them removal requests over and over. So your info doesn't just pop right back up. You set it up once, and they keep working in the background.

• 28:33Nick Capodice?

  You can even track the progress on a dashboard. And for our listeners, we have an exclusive 60% off an annual Incogni plan. Just go to incogni.com/civics or use the code civics at checkout. There's a link in the episode description. Remember, they can't harm you if they can't find you.

• 28:52Speaker 00

  Host Thanksgiving with industry-leading quality standards from Whole Foods Market. There are no antibiotics in their meat department, ever. So carve up turkey and spiral cut ham with peace of mind. Shop organic sides like stuffing mix and cranberry sauce from 365 Brand. And guess what? All their delectable pies are made with no high fructose corn syrup. Gourmet Thanksgiving flavors with the quality you want, only at Whole Foods Market.

• 29:22Nick Capodice?

  I don't know what I'm doing. Need a break. Forget it, I quit. Escape to Pluto TV.

• 29:27Speaker 02

  This is objectively fantastic.

• 29:29Nick Capodice?

  Relax into the movies and shows you already know and love, all for free. Swing! Even our news is uplifting. You stay classy, San Diego. Watch Tommy Boy, Crazy Ex Girlfriend, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy, The X-Files, Wayne's World, and so much more.

• 29:44Nick Capodice?

  The best things on TV really are free.

• 29:46Speaker 02

  You just have to know where to look.

• 29:47Nick Capodice?

  Escape to Pluto TV. Stream now, pay never.

• 29:53Hannah McCarthy?

  Okay, moving on.

• 30:00Hannah McCarthy?

  Trump has promised to either defund or reduce funding for lowering carbon emissions.

• 30:05Nick Capodice?

  All right, this is what we talked about earlier. Wind and solar and stuff like that. Renewable energy.

• 30:11Hannah McCarthy?

  Yeah, and there's a significant hitch when it comes to pulling government support of renewable energy. And that hitch isn't just political. It's also economic.

• 30:22Speaker 05

  On one hand, we have, without a doubt, and this is something that Trump or no one person could stop, is that we have this inexorable trend. We have an unstoppable trend towards renewables globally and also in the US. Renewables increasing, including, and this is what makes it very interesting. The most dramatic increases has been not in the blue states like California and New York. No, it's been in the red states. It's been, especially in Texas. So you've got these states who are benefiting enormously from renewable energy.

• 31:02Speaker 05

  But then you also have an incoming administration that wants to get rid of renewables or certainly doesn't endorse renewables as a way towards energy independence.

• 31:15Nick Capodice?

  Okay, so basically, Trump vows to withdraw support for renewable energy, but renewable energy is making money.

• 31:24Hannah McCarthy?

  And one not insignificant factor is that there are a lot of conspiracy theories out there about what else renewable energy is doing.

• 31:34Speaker 05

  Some very powerful but unfounded claims or conspiracies.

• 31:39Speaker 06

  They're dangerous. You see what's happening up in the Massachusetts area with the whales, where they had two whales wash ashore in, I think, a 17-year period. And now they had 14 this season.

• 31:54Speaker 06

  The windmills are driving the whales crazy.

• 31:58Speaker 05

  Some of the key purveyors of those unfounded claims are potential nominees, including Robert Kennedy Jr., who does think that offshore wind is a danger to health. What that means for investment, we still don't know because the governments can set incentives and subsidies. But I don't think those statements are enough to stop this really powerful trend.

• 32:30Hannah McCarthy?

  Elizabeth did say that even if the United States reduces or withdraws support for renewable energy development and production, and by the way, that support often comes in the form of tax subsidies, AKA tax breaks, for companies that are exploring and manufacturing renewable energy sources. Anyway, even without that government support, Elizabeth doesn't see this upward trend toward renewables going away. It's a global thing. What she does see potentially happening is renewable startups struggling in the US and America potentially losing its footing in the renewable energy race.

• 33:10Speaker 05

  If you're someone just starting and you need that government subsidies to help you, the way that those government subsidies helped Elon Musk with his, you know, electric cars or what have you, that won't happen. And it also means, and this is harder to measure, but I think will have really significant implications, is that if the US government withdraws that support, both rhetorical support, but also financial support, that means others will step in. So the main threat to the production of US green energy right now is competition from China. So if the US steps back, then China production will increase to supply those to others.

• 33:53Hannah McCarthy?

  Basically, Elizabeth says, watch what happens on that front. Trump is also, of course, promising tariffs on goods imported from China. Listen to our episode on tariffs to understand exactly what that means. But if the United States isn't buying renewables from China, it might encourage domestic production, assuming, of course, there are incentives like tax subsidies to get that production off the ground.

• 34:20Speaker 05

  Producers, you know, business people whom Trump does listen to more than an environmentalist. If they say, "Look, you know, we need this for jobs and we need this to make the US energy independent," Trump is somewhat agnostic. You know, I think he can be open. We know he's a transactional person who just, he's a deal and he likes to get that done. So he might listen to that and decide to change his opposition to renewables. That wouldn't surprise me. I could see him coming out. It will be interesting to watch.

• 34:55Hannah McCarthy?

  Okay, last big environmental policy promise Trump made: to revoke the Inflation Reduction Act.

• 35:02Speaker 05

  Trump cannot revoke the Inflation Reduction Act. Okay, it's a congressional piece of legislation. That doesn't mean that he can't try, and he has allies in Congress, and his party controls both houses. But key here is that he will need to go through Congress. He will need to work with Congress to revoke all or parts of that act. As we were speaking about before, the Republican states are the most significant beneficiaries of the Inflation Reduction Act. So that act provided oodles of money for investment in green transition

• 35:47Speaker 05

  and to jumpstart renewable energy production, did a whole host of things. Many Republicans don't want that repealed.

• 35:57Hannah McCarthy?

  So that really makes it sound like the Inflation Reduction Act isn't going anywhere.

• 36:02Speaker 05

  Well, there could be regulations that undermine some of the dimensions that are in the Inflation Reduction Act. So that's a way of, that's a more sneaky way to undermine some of the goals and aims of the Inflation Reduction Act without revoking the act itself. The Inflation Reduction Act set aside particularly

• 36:29Speaker 05

  Part of money for particular communities. There was a very strong justice element attached to the Inflation Reduction Act. So these would be particularly deprived communities, generally communities of color, who are suffering the most from pollution or the effects of climate change. And there were certain programs that are funded to help address some of that. Because they haven't been implemented yet. It could be that the Trump administration then is able not to get rid of the pot, but stop the implementation of that money being dispersed, for instance.

• 37:13Hannah McCarthy?

  The Biden administration, by the way, is currently trying to get as much of that money dispersed as possible before they're out of the White House. But moving billions of dollars from federal coffers to state and local governments is not an easy task. There are also tax incentives for individuals and families buying electric vehicles, solar panels, even heat pumps. But these require paperwork and navigating supply chain problems. So that one might be a race against the clock.

• 37:43Nick Capodice?

  So Hannah, I think it's important to point out here that there are promises, and there are possibles, and there are probables, right? But ultimately, we can't know what this new administration will do with and to environmental policy in the United States, especially when so many of these plans involve existing law and procedures.

• 38:09Hannah McCarthy?

  We really can't. We just have to wait and see.

• 38:15Hannah McCarthy?

  So I think for those invested in the fate of climate policy, one way or another, Elizabeth is really just saying, here's what to look for, here's what to watch. Basically, pay attention to X, Y, and Z because here's what it could mean. But policy and law and legality aside, Elizabeth says that Trump has already accomplished a meaningful and likely lasting change when it comes to American attitudes toward the environment.

• 38:43Speaker 05

  I think this idea of an ideational or the role of narratives, kind of shaping the narratives, because those can outlive any particular president, and they're much harder to shift. So I think in Trump's first term, he already sought to change in significant ways the way that Americans think about the environment and the way they think about climate and the way they think about America's leadership role or America's role in the world.

• 39:22Speaker 05

  And I think in all these areas, we are still witnessing the impact that he had in his first term. One of the areas is how do Americans view expertise? How much do they trust international and national institutions to identify a problem and then address the problem? And there has been such a significant drop in Americans' trust of scientists, America's trust in expertise more generally, and even Americans' trust in the role of federal or state institutions to deliver a common good.

• 40:06Hannah McCarthy?

  And, Elizabeth says, there is the fact that the incoming administration has a much better handle on how things work than it did the last time around. A much stronger team that knows exactly what it wants and has a pretty good idea of how to get there. Deregulation is a pretty common name of the game here, not just with environmental policies but beyond. By the same turn, though, Elizabeth believes that those who are concerned about losing climate and environmental protections have learned a thing or two as well.

• 40:37Speaker 05

  Those who are advocates for environmental action, they've seen this now before. This is not new and shocking and, oh, my gosh, where did this come from and how do we react and what can we do? They know what the playbook is, how to reach those members of Congress who are benefiting, how to focus on state measures. They will come even more important than in the past, and states are already building all kinds of alliances. But also, I think that those advocating for change have become slightly more sophisticated or becoming more in tune with what motivates voters and the public more generally.

• 41:15Speaker 05

  And it's actually not to be green, and it's not because it's the right thing to do. It's making much more of the interlocking between environmental and climate action and other things that Americans value, whether that be future generations or whether that be the beautiful national parks and things around us, or whether if you're a person of faith, what does that bring, or whether you care about social equality. So the idea of intersecting more, of linking climate and environment to other positive

• 41:56Speaker 05

  values, I myself think that's the best way to communicate. And I think the more that that can get across, the more that whatever you think of a particular candidate, you can say, ah, I think there is a space for us to make sure that we're living in a unpolluted world that we can habitate and live with others to prosper.

• 42:19Hannah McCarthy?

  So, a savvy administration against a savvy environmentalist movement. One promising a brighter future via unfettered, or at least less fettered, industry, and the other via a less polluted planet. We often talk about finding consensus, using that as the foundation for constructive and net positive change in America. Most people might be able to agree that they want to be safe, healthy, fed, clothed and sheltered, that they don't want to fear for their or their children's futures, that they want their communities to thrive, that they don't

• 42:59Hannah McCarthy?

  want to worry about money. That might be some kind of American consensus. But agreeing on how to get there, when the potential paths diverge so drastically, in this America, that might be easier said than done. And at least for the next four years, our chief executive has told us what path he plans to take. We'll just have to see where that leads and what Americans think about it.

• 43:51Nick Capodice?

  This episode was produced by Hannah McCarthy with Marina Henke and me, Nick Capodice. Our senior producer is Christina Phillips and our executive producer is Rebecca Lavoy. Music in this episode by Dayana, Particle House, Craig Reaver, Lucas Got Lucky, Mind Me, Mindless, Timothy Infinite, Sven Linval and Zorro. You can get everything else Civics 101 has ever made and reach out to us at our website civics101podcast.org. And if you like us, consider leaving us a review. Throw us some stars. You can do that on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your audio. Civics 101 is a production of NHPR, New Hampshire Public Radio.

• 44:43Nick Capodice?

  U.S. democracy is being held together by duct tape. But what if the solution isn't more tape, but a fundamentally different design? Check out More Like Us, the new podcast More Equitable Democracy, the award-winning racial justice organization focused on election reform, hosted by me, Colin Cole. Each episode, More Like Us provides smart, accessible conversations at the intersection of policy, culture, and democracy. Hear from the people reimagining our political future without the jargon or the lecture. So follow More Like Us wherever you get your podcasts. I don't know what I'm doing. Need a break. Forget it, I quit. Escape to Pluto TV.

• 45:19Speaker 02

  This is objectively fantastic.

• 45:21Nick Capodice?

  Relax into the movies and shows you already know and love, all for free. Shwing! Even our news is uplifting. You stay classy, San Diego. Watch Tommy Boy, Crazy Ex Girlfriend, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy, The X-Files, Wayne's World, and so much more. We're not worthy! The best things on TV really are free.

• 45:38Speaker 02

  You just have to know where to look.

• 45:40Nick Capodice?

  Escape to Pluto TV. Stream now, pay never.