The new landscape for gas turbines

Data center developers are facing unprecedented roadblocks to power new facilities. In addition to being hampered by an enormous interconnection queue backlog, the major gas turbine suppliers — GE Vernova, Mitsubishi, and Siemens — are completely sold out past 2030. As a result, developers are scrambling to find alternate behind-the-meter power solutions. In this episode, Shayle invites Tony Brough, president of Dora Partners & Company, back on the show to examine this squeeze on gas-fired power generation. They break down the OEM backlog, examine rising equipment pricing, and take a deep dive into the emerging ecosystem of new suppliers looking to fill the void. Shayle and Tony discuss: - Why turbine prices have surged from $500/kW to nearly $2,500/kW - The long-term viability of deploying reciprocating generators as bridge power - The technical and manufacturing hurdles facing new turbine OEMs like Boom Supersonic and Parallax - How companies like FTAI, PROENERGY, and Nova Power are repurposing jet engines into stationary power units - The market outlook for 2030, including the role of renewables, and whether behind-the-meter gas demand will plateau - Catalyst: Data centers' looming methane surge - Catalyst: The rise of flexible data centers - Catalyst: The gas turbine crunch - Open Circuit: Data centers have a Texas-sized energy problem - Open Circuit: Power is caught in AI's doom loop - Latitude Media: Is the gas turbine bottleneck solving itself? - Latitude Media: Hyperscalers say gas is a bridge — but no one says where it ends Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Max Savage Levenson. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is our executive editor. Catalyst is brought to you by GridBeyond. GridBeyond is the world’s leading technology platform for managing distributed and flexible energy resources. Learn more by visiting GridBeyond.com. Catalyst is brought to you by Antenna Group, the strategic communications and marketing partner behind the biggest names in energy, climate, and infrastructure. For three decades, Antenna has helped breakout companies amplify their stories, build reputation, differentiate from the competition, define new categories and accelerate growth. Learn more at antennagroup.com. Catalyst is brought to you by EnergyHub. Peak season puts every grid to the test — and the utilities that pass are the ones that built flexible capacity before they needed it. EnergyHub works with more than 230 utilities to coordinate over 2.6 million DERs and more than 3.6 gigawatts of dispatchable flexibility through a single platform designed to perform when it counts most. See what that looks like at EnergyHub.com.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Speaker 00

  Latitude Media, covering the new frontiers of the energy transition.

• 0:07Shayle Kann?

  I'm Shayle Khan. I lead early-stage investments at Energy Impact Partners. Welcome to Catalyst. So, we are in the "let a thousand flowers bloom" phase of the natural gas generator cycle, or maybe the "let a thousand flowers sign POs" phase, at least. The major turbine OEMs, GE, Vernova, Mitsubishi, and Siemens, all remain sold out years into the future. Pricing is holding up, even increasing, in some cases, from already historic highs. And the rise of behind-the-meter capacity, which is predicated pretty much entirely on getting online faster, has created this window for a bunch of non-traditional solutions to attempt to cram through. It's a super-interesting dynamic, so I brought back on Tony Brof,

• 0:51Shayle Kann?

  who is the president at Dora Partners and Company, to talk through it. Tony was on the pod before Talking Turbines, back in June 2025, which is essentially 100 years ago in this context. He's coming up next.

• 1:10Speaker 00

  Demand flexibility is now an essential part of the data center's speed-to-power playbook. But how do data centers actually curtail load? GridBeyond is the end-to-end solution for flexible energy management. GridBeyond's advanced DERS and VPP platform is tailored to what data centers care about most: maximizing reliability, intelligently meeting curtailment obligations, reducing costs, and managing all your distributed resources in one place. Ready to transform your distributed energy management? Get started at gridbeyond.com. Catalyst is brought to you by Antenna Group, the communications and marketing partner behind the most influential companies in energy, climate, and infrastructure. For three decades, Antenna has helped ambitious companies stand out, build market leadership,

• 1:54Speaker 00

  and become category-defining brands. From breakthrough startups to global industry leaders, their team brings the expertise, relationships, and track record to accelerate your momentum. Learn more at antenna group.com.

• 2:07Speaker 02

  The power plant for the modern grid isn't a building, it's a network. Energy Hub's DERS platform connects batteries, EVs, thermostats, and commercial and industrial sites into virtual power plants that over 230 utilities dispatch as reliable grid capacity day in, day out. VPPs deploy in 60 to 100 days at 40% to 60% less cost than traditional infrastructure, and they perform like conventional generation from day one. Learn about the flexibility platform for the modern grid at energyhub.com.

• 2:42Shayle Kann?

  Tony, welcome back.

• 2:44Speaker 03

  Thank you. I'm happy to be back.

• 2:46Shayle Kann?

  All right, so you and I last chatted here, like, over a year ago, between a year and a year and a half ago. And at that point, you know, I was asking you about, like, hey, there's this emergent but real phenomenon of, you know, the major gas turbine suppliers are all backlogged and they're sold out through, at that point, it was probably, I don't know, late 2020s or maybe 2030, what are we gonna do? So I want to start with an update on that, and then I want to talk about what is happening, given the fact that they, I mean, given the fact that the answer to that is they're even more sold out and there's even more demand, particularly behind the meters. There's a bunch of other stuff that has emerged in the meantime. But let's start with the big players, GE, Mitsubishi, and

• 3:30Shayle Kann?

  Siemens. Where are we now in the turbine backlog?

• 3:34Speaker 03

  Well, I mean, I look at it from two perspectives. One is order activity and the other is declared backlog. As you may remember, I think, last time when I spoke, we, I had predicted we'd have somewhere around 101 gigawatts of orders, order activity in 2026. Right now, I'm tracking the numbers closer to 132 is my projection right now. And I forecast the market with a baseline and an upside and downside scenario, and we're pretty much running right on the upside scenario that I had predicted, which is

• 4:13Speaker 03

  around 126. So somewhere between 126 and 132 gigawatts, I expect will be ordered in 2026. Now, of course, orders turn into backlog, which is more direct to your question. And I've been tracking the data, and it looks like GE Vernova's running at about 53 gigawatts of firm orders, but they've got, believe it or not, another approximate 63 gigawatts of slot reservations. So they're the only ones in the market that kind of track firm orders separate from reservations, where there's money been transferred. And so the

• 4:57Speaker 03

  numbers, they're, they're well over 100, they're almost at a 120 gigawatts of slot reservations plus firm orders. So it's a pretty substantial number, significantly more than their other two competitors. In fact, they're at about the point of what Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi are at together. But, so Siemens Energy is around 70 gigawatts

• 5:25Speaker 03

  backlog, and Mitsubishi is around 35 gigawatts. That's, to the best of my reckoning. But there's, there's others that have, how I would say, fairly substantial backlogs as well.

• 5:39Shayle Kann?

  Yeah, I want to talk about some of those others as well, but before we do, what about timelines? If I go make a slot, if I go place a slot reservation right now for one of the big three, when am I gonna get delivery?

• 5:51Speaker 03

  You're looking at 2030, 2031, 2032. I mean, I, I've spoken to some OEMs who have told me that some of their product lines are sold out for the next five years, flat out, sold out. Can't take another order for, for the next five years on certain product lines. So, so I think 2030, 2031, and even into 2032, sold out. That's when deliveries are expected.

• 6:21Shayle Kann?

  How much are they expanding capacity, and when?

• 6:24Speaker 03

  Yep. I've actually, I looked a little bit about that ahead of our call, and certainly capacity additions are coming into play. As I think I said the last time we spoke, that I thought that the OEMs would be very responsible in their capital investments, and they wouldn't overbuild. I think that's probably still true. I think they're still weary of a potential AI bubble burst. So, but that doesn't mean they haven't been investing in and making significant capacity additions. Between now and 2030, I think GE is, is projected

• 7:04Speaker 03

  to increase their capacity from 20 gigawatts to 30 gigawatts. It's a big number. Mitsubishi Power's almost doubling their capacity. Siemens is going from about 16 to 23 gigawatts of capacity per year. But, but even some of the smaller players, albeit significant players, are significantly increasing their capacity. Baker Hughes is basically doubling their capacity. Solar Turbine, almost doubling their capacity. Doosan is increasing. Of course, they're new to the marketplace. And then we have some of the other players

• 7:45Speaker 03

  that we'll talk about later that I think are either increasing capacity or are entering the space and adding capacity to the marketplace.

• 7:54Shayle Kann?

  Would it be accurate to say, though, that, I mean, you gave the numbers like GE up in the 20 to 30 gigawatt range, Mitsubishi and Siemens were down in that 10-ish, 1020 gigawatt range. I mean, is anybody else approaching double-digit gigawatt capacity? Is it still, you know, is it still a market where there's like three big players and then a long tail, or is anybody else creeping up on that top tier?

• 8:18Speaker 03

  No, you don't. You're, you're absolutely right. If you, if you look at it from that perspective, between GE, Vernova, Mitsubishi Power, and Siemens Energy, they're all projecting to have capacity by 2030 between 23 and 30 gigawatts per year. Everybody else is five gigawatts or less.

• 8:36Shayle Kann?

  Okay, right. So it's still, it's still the big three. And then this gets to the, what's going on in the market, which is, even if you take those 2030 numbers, right? So they're each, there's three big players, each between 20 and 30 gigawatts. So let's just say 25 on average. That'd be 75 gigawatts total of capacity amongst the three big players. And worth noting that that is all turbine capacity that goes to the behind-the-meter data center stuff, goes to the grid, and is global, right? That's their global capacity.

• 9:06Speaker 03

  That's correct.

• 9:07Shayle Kann?

  So there's demand all over the place. So then you can contrast that with the numbers that people are throwing around just for data centers, even just in the US, where it approaches those numbers by the end of the decade, if you were to believe the forecasts of how much data center capacity we are gonna build. And you can understand why, you know, that we're in this situation now, where basically everybody else in all sorts of different technology categories who uses gas to produce power is trying to expand capacity and enter this market, right? Like, the presumption is if the data center boom continues apace, those three players will not nearly be able to meet the need of the market by the end of the decade.

• 9:47Speaker 03

  I think that's true. I mean, I, right now, I'm tracking data centers just for North America alone. By 2030, we'll have a capacity demand of about 160, 150, 150 and 160 gigawatts. But they're, you know, the hole is being filled by so many different sources. And we'll talk more about that, I assume, Shayle, but it's very strange how it's being filled. And there's a lot of interesting dynamics behind, behind all of it that I think is, to me, is very intriguing, and in some cases, just not to common sense.

• 10:31Shayle Kann?

  Well, yeah, that's, that's what I mostly want to talk about, right? So this all, this is all precursor, which is to say that the, the big players are sold out, they're expanding capacity, but not expanding capacity as fast as the market seems to be growing at the moment. We talked last time about why that's the logical thing for them to do. And so, here comes a whole host of other solutions that want to fill that void. Let's talk through them. I think it's useful to try to categorize them a little bit, so that we can put them in buckets. So let me attempt to do that, and then you can give me your thoughts, and you can tell me if the categories that I'm coming up with are wrong. But first, let's say-

• 11:10Shayle Kann?

  It's the smaller players who are nonetheless established and mature and are trying to enter this market. So you mentioned solar turbines and folks like that. I'm thinking also here of folks like Cummins or Generac, you know, folks who've been selling generators, but not at that large a scale for a very long time. What do you see amongst that crowd?

• 11:33Speaker 03

  I mean, that's the, that's the thing that intrigues me the most, to be honest. If you look at the amount, the number of units under three megawatts that are being purchased for data center activity, the numbers are rather incredible, the sizes. I mean, there are, there are sites that have between five and 800 small resips per site plan. I mean, the numbers are mind boggling and from a logistics perspective, an absolute nightmare.

• 12:12Speaker 03

  So when I get to ask the question, you know, if they, if the bubble pops or if the demand for generation assets starts to diminish for a variety of potential reasons of global recession, data center failures, what have you, regulatory issues, government or political issues, those suppliers, those orders for those smallest, all those resips and those units under three megawatts, those orders are going to go away quick. There will either

• 12:50Speaker 03

  be cancellations or, or they will simply stop ordering those kinds of volumes because it just makes no sense.

• 12:59Shayle Kann?

  Can I attempt to represent the counter argument there for why that stuff could make sense in the, no matter what the market situation is? I'm curious to get your take on it. I think it's a couple of things. One is particularly if you're going behind the meter and, and trying to use bridge power, where for a period of time you don't have a grid connection and you're just relying almost entirely on your, your behind the meter generation. You know, I've heard the argument that it is easier if you have a bunch of small modular units, you can get your N plus one, N plus two reliability more easily that way than if you are, you know, you have to add in 50 megawatt chunks or whatever it might be if you're

• 13:41Shayle Kann?

  buying a big turbine. So I'm curious what you think about that specifically in the bridge power or off-grid theoretically type application?

• 13:50Speaker 03

  Well, I think that argument is absolutely correct, given the current state of the marketplace and the long lead times for, for gas turbines and, and potential other larger sources of energy for, for those data centers. But what, as I said, I think when the market eventually diminishes in one way or another, those will be the first things that will stop being acquired.

• 14:20Shayle Kann?

  Because we won't have as much behind the meter anymore, you mean? Because this like bridge power off-grid thing goes away?

• 14:26Speaker 03

  Well, that and it's just the very, the very huge logistics nightmare of, of hooking all of these, you know, five, 600 devices up and all having them in sync and operating behind the meter. It's a logistics nightmare, not including just maintaining all those individual assets. I mean, it's just a very big headache to manage those many generation assets on any one site.

• 14:57Shayle Kann?

  Okay. So, and that, that's what you think of as being that sort of that category of Cummins and Generac and so on. And I guess you said, you know, sub three megawatts. For folks who are not super steeped in this market, we should contrast that. Like, what's the size of a, a typical turbine that you might buy to put behind the meter, for example, from one of the big three?

• 15:18Speaker 03

  Yeah. Most of the gas turbines that are being purchased right now are, are around seven megawatts up, all the way up to over a hundred megawatts. We, we know the biggest orders, the ones that Elon Musk made, you know, were those 300 plus megawatt units. Generally, you don't see as many of those, but generally the, the data centers are, are getting gas turbines that are between, between seven megawatts and 100 megawatts.

• 15:47Shayle Kann?

  Which is a big range, right? And seven doesn't sound that different from three, but a hundred does, obviously.

• 15:54Speaker 03

  Yeah, that's true. That's true. If you start to look at it in terms of popular sizes, the biggest popular, the biggest popular sizes we're seeing are the 14 to 17 megawatt range. We're seeing a lot of order activity for those. That would be Siemens Energy's SGT 400, Baker Hughes' Nova LT 16. I think they're, oh, and of course, solar has the Titan 130, very popular. Those, those are attracting a lot of attention. Then you jump to the next size range, which is the 25 to 35 megawatt range. Those are mostly aero derivatives,

• 16:36Speaker 03

  the LM 2500s and the Rolls Royce, not the Rolls Royce, but the Siemens SGT A35s, things of that nature, Pratt, or the MHI FTA. Those are very popular in that size range. And then we're starting to see order activity in that 40 plus megawatt range for engines like the LM 6000, PE 6000, LM 9000, things of that nature.

• 17:06Speaker 00

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• 19:16Shayle Kann?

  Okay. So that's, that's the sort of resips and incumbent suppliers, but pivoting into this market. Let's talk about, I think there's three other categories that are interesting at least. One is just like de novo turbine manufacturers, companies who want to be OEMs of turbines. They have some, typically some novel manufacturing process or some novel design, and they're going straight after Jeet Mitsubishi Siemens. So example, some examples of these that I'll give you and then you can, you can give me thoughts on the category. Boom Supersonic, which is, you know, sort of taking all the work that

• 19:57Shayle Kann?

  they've done to make their supersonic jet engine and converting it into a new turbine. Parallax is a company that just came out of stealth a few weeks ago, having raised quite a lot of money to build a totally green sheet turbine. There's also a group of companies that I think are doing like super critical CO2 cycles. And then there are even more, right? There, we, there are a bunch of startups that are like, we're building a turbine from scratch. How do you think about that?

• 20:25Speaker 03

  I would put them in two different categories, Shell. The, the Boom and the Parallax I find interesting. I, I worked for a, a person a long time ago when I was at General Electric who referred to a gas turbine as a symphony in metal. And it really is a very, very complicated device.

• 20:51Speaker 03

  And we have seen that Bloom basically lost their largest order. And I have doubts as to when Parallax's 10-megawatt unit will turn into a real gas turbine. It's very, very difficult to design a gas turbine from the ground up, having never done it before, and then be successful. It could be a 10- to 20-year activity, in all honesty. So I have my doubts about those two players and their potential for success.

• 21:35Speaker 03

  Maybe they'll surprise me, but I think there's a lot of risk there. Now, when it comes to supercritical CO2, I think that's actually a different scenario. And I think it's a very real potential alternative solution to gas turbines. Because now you're looking at basically using steam turbine technology, almost, to, I mean, whatever you need to complete the supercritical CO2 cycle for producing electricity. And I think the technology leap for doing that is significantly lower than it is for designing a gas turbine from ground zero.

• 22:18Speaker 03

  So I think that's a very real potential solution. Now, in terms of having an impact on the market, I think it will have a small impact. But I think that if you're in that, if you're, you know, trying to enter that space, I think there's potential for you to be successful.

• 22:41Shayle Kann?

  Okay, next category. You mentioned aerod derivatives. There's a sister part of the aerod derivatives market that is pretty interesting, which is people who are not just building aerod derivative engines from scratch, but rather purchasing used jet aircraft and then retrofitting them and turning them into stationary power generation. I think the biggest player, the most well-known in this place, in this market is called F-TI. You can explain who they are and what they're doing. But yeah, give me your perspective on the retrofit a jet engine to use for stationary power.

• 23:16Speaker 03

  Yeah, and there are multiple new players who are entering that space. F-TI is one. There's another company called Nova Power. And I know of at least one to three others that are doing this now, or they're just not publicly announced yet. And that whole idea of converting an aerospace engine to an industrial engine, it's actually a very viable opportunity. I think that those players are going to be successful. The most difficult part of, there's only, I'd say, two major challenges. One of them is what you're going to do with the, you know, eliminating the big fan at

• 24:01Speaker 03

  the front of the engine that's designed to produce thrust, and now you want to produce rotating torque instead. And then the combustion system, and how you're going to address that, because nobody wants to actually use liquid fuel, which those engines were originally designed to operate from. So I think, once you solve those two technical challenges, these are very viable options that I think are going to be successful. Now, who are these people? These are companies that have access to lease assets or can purchase flying assets that

• 24:41Speaker 03

  will potentially now be going to become made available because they're no longer viable for supporting the aerospace industry, the flying customers. But there's tens of thousands of potential gas turbines that will become available over the coming five to 10 years. So I think that's a very viable solution. Now, there's another category that you alluded to, and that was pro-energy. Pro-energy is a little bit different from those other that we just described, because they're basically buying an aerospace engine and only using the external carcass of the

• 25:25Speaker 03

  gas turbine. And virtually every component on the inside of the gas turbine, they've designed from ground up, using reengineering processes to manufacture their own components for the whole internal elements of the gas turbine. And they are clearly having some degree of success with that. So I would put those in, I call it the same family, but different categories of that, the family for aerospace to industrial solutions.

• 25:58Shayle Kann?

  Okay, and then last category, which is really an amalgam of a bunch of other stuff, because it's tough to make it just one thing, but it's like novel, more novel, like more different from what we've seen historically. So things you could put in this category. mainspring energy, which is linear generators, fuel cells, like Bloom, which has obviously had a big moment of late, and other novel gas-to-power technologies, I guess. How do you think about them? And I guess you could separate them out if you want.

• 26:28Speaker 03

  Well, I do think there's some, there's certainly some viability to those offerings, but I run into a similar concern, the same concern that I have for those resips that I talked about before.

• 26:45Shayle Kann?

  Just that the units are small, basically.

• 26:47Speaker 03

  Yeah, I mean, let me give you an example. On the mainspring solution, the linear generator, they're taking 10 of these linear generators and combining them into a string of 10 for 2.5 megawatts. If you look at the space that those, that set is intended to, required to use, it's like 6,000 square feet of ground space for that 2.5 megawatts. Well, you could put 30 to 100 megawatts of gas turbines on that same footprint.

• 27:30Speaker 03

  It's just not a long-term viable solution, in my opinion, from a purely logistics nightmare perspective. You've got, it's just, you're looking at so many units to fill such a large gap. I find it a bit of a reach.

• 27:47Shayle Kann?

  Stepping back from the categories for a second, the one thing we haven't really talked about yet is pricing. It varies across these different categories, of course, but what should I expect if I'm going to install behind-the-meter gas-to-power technology of one kind or another in, at my data center, you know, later this decade, let's say, what should I be expecting to pay?

• 28:08Speaker 03

  Yeah, I mean, I get that question all the time. So let me give you an example, an example, you know, because a lot of units in that, I'll call it that 20 to 35-megawatt range, those are going anywhere between $1,900 and $2,500 per kilowatt. I mean, it wasn't that long ago that the price for those units was down around $400 or $500 a kilowatt. Now, I think that this whole market activity is actually presenting an opportunity, a long-term opportunity for the gas turbine OEMs.

• 28:49Speaker 03

  Because if you look back historically, gas turbine OEMs made most of their money on the aftermarket, and they struggled to make profit on their new unit activity. So it was, you know, build it, sell it, and make most of my money in the aftermarket. Well, we already know that the largest gas turbine OEMs now, they're making more profit on new units than they are on the aftermarket, for the first time in the history of the industry. Now, why I say this is a kind of historic situation is because this increased pricing that we're seeing today, I think is going to come down over time.

• 29:31Speaker 03

  So if you're seeing prices in the $1,900 to $2,200 per kilowatt, eventually, I think those prices are going to settle down around hater, $900 a kilowatt. That's still double what an OEM in that megawatt range was expecting to get five years ago. I think that's actually good for the industry, because that means that their, that new unit activity is going to be a long-term viable opportunity for making money and creating opportunity for themselves and these other, I call it, offshoot players.

• 30:09Shayle Kann?

  Okay, so I guess final question for you. What do you think this market looks like in 2030? So we've still got the three big players, they in aggregate can produce 75 gigawatts a year, plus or minus, and then you've got this long list that we've just run through of a whole bunch of other players who, as you said, none are like cresting over five gigawatts. So how does that market work?

• 30:35Speaker 03

  I think, I think that's why the OEMs are being careful with their capacity additions, because I predict that the market will start to diminish. Probably 2028 and after, you'll start to see the overall market to come down. But, I mean, I frequently get asked, you know, what my long-term forecast looks like, and it is a negative trend. But even in my worst-case scenario, the 10 years from now, the megawatt order activity is still more than it was in 2023.

• 31:16Speaker 03

  So I think that the health of the gas turbine industry is going to be very good for the long term, at least for the next 10-plus years. But will there be a reduction? I think there has to be. I mean, renewables are still very strong entering the marketplace. Solar, photovoltaic, the capacity additions every year are an order of magnitude higher than gas turbine additions per year. So we can't ignore the fact that renewables are still the lowest-cost source of electricity globally, not just in Asia, not just in Europe, but here in the United States as well, the lowest-cost source of electricity.

• 32:00Speaker 03

  So we can't ignore it. And I think that will eventually result in a diminishing level or trend, I should say, in gas turbine order activity. That doesn't mean it's not going to be a viable market, but I think it will diminish.

• 32:15Shayle Kann?

  All right, Tony, this was fun once again. Thank you, appreciate your time.

• 32:19Speaker 03

  Great, thank you very much.

• 32:22Shayle Kann?

  Tony Brof is the president at Dora Partners and Company. This show is a production of Latitude Media. You can head over to latitudemedia.com for links to today's topics. This episode is produced by Max Savage Levenson. Mixing and theme song by Sean Marquand. Anne Bailey edits the video version of the show. Stephen Lacey is our executive editor. All of our episodes are on YouTube. You can subscribe to Latitude Media for episodes of this show and Open Circuit. You can find the audio version of the show anywhere you get your audio podcasts. I'm Shayle Khan, and this is Catalyst.