Middle East Realignments & Global Stability: Insights with Peter Ivany, Chairman, Ivany Investment Group

In this insightful episode of The Brand Called You, host Ashutosh Garg welcomes Peter Ivany, Chairman of Ivany Investment Group and a renowned leader in business, geopolitics, and the arts, from Sydney, Australia. Drawing on decades of leadership experience, Peter shares his perspective on Middle East realignments and the future of regional stability. An overview of the Abraham Accords and their transformative impact on Middle Eastern diplomacy and trade Israel’s evolving regional strategy amid changing Gulf alliances and security challenges The growing influence of the US and China, and whether the region is shifting from security-led to economy-led engagement Future scenarios for Middle Eastern stability: fragile equilibrium or deeper realignment

• 0:08Speaker 00

  Welcome to another episode of the brand called you a podcast and podcast show that brings you leadership lessons, knowledge, experience and wisdom from thousands of successful individuals from around the world. I'm your host, Ashutosh Garg. And today I'm delighted to welcome a very senior and accomplished leader, a very good friend, a fellow member of the YPO from Sydney, Australia, Mr. Peter Ivany. Peter, welcome to the show.

• 0:34Speaker 01

  Thanks, Ashutosh. Lovely to be here with you.

• 0:36Speaker 00

  Thank you.

• 0:37Speaker 01

  As always.

• 0:38Speaker 00

  Absolutely, absolutely. Peter is the chairman of Ivany Investment Group. He is the person behind the success of Hoyts, which has had 200, 2200 cinema screens. Post Hoyts, he has been chairman of numerous public and private companies as well as government and not-for-profit organizations across the media and arts, tourism, finance and sports sectors, with leadership experience spanning more than 45 years. He's an expert in geopolitics. He's a member of the Sydney Cricket Sports Ground Trust, chairman of NIDA and chairman of the Sydney Swans. And after all he had all these achievements, understandably, he's the recipient

• 1:18Speaker 00

  of the Order of Australia. So Peter, you know, I've had some amazing conversations with you. You've got such a deep understanding of what's going on in the world. And today we're going to talk about Middle East realignments and the future of stability. And I know in our various private conversations, how deep your understanding is. So my first question for you, Pete is, there is a lot of discussion on the Abraham Accords. For my viewers and listeners, give us a brief overview.

• 1:48Speaker 01

  Okay. Look, this is not one of the easiest topics in the world at the moment.

• 1:54Speaker 01

  And whatever we do is going to change, you know, rapidly. But it is, it is sort of at the moment, the central point of where the world is on a whole range of different things. The Abraham Accords, if we go back a bit, Egypt in 1979, and that's been a very peaceful coexistence since then, Jordan in 1994, the UAE and Bahrain joined a few years ago in 2020.

• 2:24Speaker 01

  And it's just, it's been the accord where trade has opened, there's diplomacy, and there's peace, which is the most important thing. So it starts to set up a situation in the Middle East where there's some chance where there's just cooperation between the parties, right? And obviously, with what happened after October the 7th, you know, this whole thing starts again now. Just for your viewers, and I've heard different things from people very close to it, that they were within, some people say 48 hours, some people say two or three weeks of signing an accord with Saudi Arabia, which in terms of the political, the politics of power in

• 3:06Speaker 01

  the Middle East, that's very fundamental to, you know, where the whole thing sort of sits. Because between all that, you've got a lot of, you know, there's a lot of sort of discord between the elements of the Middle East, how they cooperate with each other, and where the issues have been. And I'm happy to sort of elaborate on that further. But I think the next big point is, what's the next step in the Abraham Accords? And where does it all lead to? And I'm happy to answer that, but if you want to take...

• 3:39Speaker 00

  No, but we'll take that and we'll maybe do a separate deep dive on the Abraham Accords. But as an introduction, you've given me an interesting answer. But moving on, and given everything that's going on in the Middle East and Israel now, how is Israel recalibrating its regional strategy in the light of evolving ties with Gulf states and ongoing security concern? Then you just spoke about Saudi Arabia.

• 4:04Speaker 01

  Yeah, well Saudi Arabia, there's a lot of discussion.

• 4:10Speaker 01

  There's discussions about moving oil through Israel. That pipeline's probably two to three years away, but there's significant discussion. Because one thing that will happen in the Middle East is the world's not going to allow ever again for 20% of the world's oil, more of the world's fertilizer and a lot of the world's gas to be controlled by one country, so that will never happen again. So the Saudi Arabia-Israel dialogue, which is ongoing, that will happen. People may not realize, but there used to be a pipeline between Iran through Israel. Obviously, that doesn't exist now, and you'd be hard pressed to get oil from Iran through Israel at this point. Yeah.

• 4:54Speaker 01

  But from a Saudi Arabian point of view, half of their oil can go through the Red Sea, and they've got that in control at the moment through different land-based pipes and then through the Red Sea, because the Houthis are quite neutralized at this point. There's different reasons for that, but people can have their own speculation. But you'll notice since the last Iran-American-Israel war, the Houthis have been pretty quiet. So the Saudi situation, ultimately, there will be other pathways for the oil. And so that will change. So my own feeling is that there will be an accord struck between Saudi and Israel,

• 5:37Speaker 01

  but it's sensitive, because even though Saudis, basically Sunni, there's 30 to 40%, 30% plus of Shias there that they have to accommodate as well. But there's no question that with what the Saudi government's done in terms of just basically trying to enter their country into the modern world, not dependent on oil, that Israel will be a big part of that, the United States will be a huge part, so that will change.

• 6:07Speaker 01

  Qatar, now that Qatar's gas field, that Qatar's the second largest gas supplier in the world, their their their gas fields were bombed, so there'll have to be some realignment there, even though they are run by the Brotherhood, they're close to Iran, but they have the biggest US airbase in the Middle East. So the Qatari situation will change. And, you know, what that means for Oman and Iraq and the Kuwait, the other countries on the border, that's still to be resolved. But depending on where this ends up, I think the cooperation between Israel and, in a way, there's a proxy for the United States in some way in the West,

• 6:50Speaker 01

  that that will change. I mean, interestingly, through this period, Iran's done quite well because in the beginning, before the US blockade, it was shipping their own oil out at very high prices. Russia's done very well because it's been shipping oil at high prices. And America's doing very well because a lot of that replacement through Europe has come to America and they've got high prices on their oil. So we have to see what happens in the dispute and from there, but there will be a realignment, no question. The difficulty is exactly how it will work. Yep. How long it will take. And will there be also some, that maybe the deal that Israel

• 7:32Speaker 01

  does with Saudi and Saudi still might do a deal with Iran, all that's still up in the air. But at the moment, while the Straits of Hormuz are closed, we're in a, we're in a bit of a stopgap situation. We are, you know, it's a bit of a game of chicken, but it's who who lasts the longest. But until there's some definitive movement of oil through the Straits, everyone's just organizing themselves for the future. But what is definitively happening is that all those Gulf states are rearming themselves, they're increasing their defence budgets, they're getting expertise from America and I dare say Israel to be able to withstand any more onslaughts. Because what people may or may not realise is

• 8:18Speaker 01

  In the case of Saudi, they've lost a lot of their fertilizer, you know, with the bombings. And I mean, every one of these countries been bombed in different regards from the Dubai airport to, you know, some of the, you know, the infrastructure and oil and gas infrastructure as well. That there's been a lot of loss of, Qatari, the gas situation's a lot of loss there. There's a lot of loss in the, in the, not so much the drilling, but definitely the refineries in Saudi and some of the gas.

• 8:50Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 8:50Speaker 01

  And some of the areas of fertilization. So there've been significant degradation. So there's one thing to ship out what you've got is stuck. And the second thing is also has to be some rebuilding of some of those assets.

• 9:04Speaker 00

  Very interesting. But tell me with external actors like the United States and China, who are both trying to, you know, reshape influence in the region. Are we witnessing a transition from a security led to an economy led engagement?

• 9:22Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think it's a great question because if you look at America and China, they're transactional.

• 9:28Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 9:29Speaker 01

  This is what China's not an ideology. They're trying to build an economy, you know. This is very different than what Russia's trying to do where they're basically, or Iran's trying to do where they're subordinating their people, you know, through arms and militarily. Both these countries want to be the number one top dog in economics and world power. And so far, the casualty of that race has been Europe.

• 9:53Speaker 00

  Yep.

• 9:53Speaker 01

  Because America's percentage of world GDP has gone up in the last 20 years. China's has gone up exponentially because of, but basically at the cost of Europe. And so the two of them, even though they're both vying to be number one and there's no draws in a war. You know, if you're sharing the world between China and America, it'll somehow work out. But to your point, it's very economic and.

• 10:21Speaker 01

  Um. But saying that, we're entering into a world that's very different than post-war. Where all countries are reverting back to their own blocks, they're forming trade. You know, they're trying to control the trade, control their supply, they're not a, you know, so. China and America would be different because actually probably suits them better have open trade, both countries. But for some other countries, when they have different purposes, subduing their population, getting regional power. It may may well suit their purposes better to withdraw back to national boundaries, but. This is a wide-ranging discussion between the left and the right in the United States, it's wide-ranging in Europe. In China, there's probably less of a debate because they sort of know where they want to be.

• 11:06Speaker 00

  Correct.

• 11:07Speaker 01

  But it's it's a significant change post-World War Two. And if you look at the major factors there, well, China was an agrarian country and now it's a world superpower. America has grown exponentially because rebuilding Europe and then what it's been able to do. And they did it in a very different way than the Cold War by opening economies and now they're thinking closing them might be better. But it's definitely a realignment and Europe's had a terrific period of rebuilding post-war, but now they're going backwards. For a whole range of reasons and the weird thing about Europe is the Eastern European, which was the communist-controlled Russia part. Pre-eight-nine is growing much, it's growing faster.

• 11:50Speaker 01

  And and in a way in a more open market than parts of of Western Europe, so. It's, yeah, it's an interesting time, but different.

• 11:57Speaker 00

  Very interesting, very interesting. Uh. One more question for you, uh, if you were to look ahead a few years.

• 12:05Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 12:06Speaker 00

  What is your base case scenario for stability in the Middle East, including Israel? Uh, is it fragile equilibrium or do you see a deeper realignment?

• 12:18Speaker 01

  You know, so difficult questions like that, I'd love to be able to call a friend, but, uh, you know, it's, uh. Look, I feel very confident about Israel for a start. You know, yes, you can argue, we've we've got point two percent of the world's population, twenty-two percent of the Nobel Prize winners. It'll be a different type of war and it'll become a it'll become an intelligence war more than boots on the ground or or armoury, you know, it'll be, you know, you could argue wars will be won, you know, on a computer, you know, or whatever. So so I feel that Israel's got a lot of that to offer and to export. It'll add a lot of value to those countries. And I am hopeful um

• 13:02Speaker 01

  that that type of development of the world takes over from, you know, basically um really controlling your people, keeping them in poverty, keeping like in Iran, the one million people with arms, keeping the ninety million people out of any sense of power share or any sense of democracy. And I would hope that

• 13:28Speaker 01

  the pathway that the UAE started, the pathway that um Saudi Arabia is trying to get on to, becomes the pathway of the future. And the countries that are sort of backward and run a feudal type system, controlled by the very few at the top, um will will start to uh have less say. And so therefore, if that that happens, and I think democracy is a far stretch, but at least economic growth and modernisation. If that comes to the fore and it becomes more an ideas place and becomes a place where the whole standard of living, you know, increases versus just for the top echelon. Um and that might take some time. And it doesn't necessarily lead to democracy, but it will lead

• 14:13Speaker 01

  to better standards, that Israel's, what Israel has will be more wanted in the region. And I think that um that will create a much better equilibrium than what we have now. Yeah. Where there's parts of the Middle East that just stooped in ideology that's hundreds of years old. And that basically, it it hurts, it hurts everybody, but it hurts their own people more than anyone else. Right. And and I'm sort of hopeful that the people win. And but maybe that's glass half full, it's a bit of optimism. But I, that's normally what happens with civilisation and that's Darwinism at its peak is that, you know, the people with the highest You know, the ones that can improve the lot for more at the at the time will eventually

• 14:56Speaker 01

  people see the light, they get more educated and they see it. And if you look at, yeah, I I can look at that from many angles, but that'd be my overall view.

• 15:03Speaker 00

  Absolutely.

• 15:04Speaker 01

  And also my hope, Ashutosh.

• 15:06Speaker 00

  Yeah, I agree. And on that note, Pete, I want to say, you know, we discussed this and we had said we'd try and keep shorter capsules. Uh, the the amount of understanding you have of the topic. Uh, I think it's it's a few set of questions that I've asked you. We're going to try and get our viewers and listeners again. Uh, Pete's expertise in another two weeks' time and we'll try and keep doing this as often as we can. Because Pete is a well travelled man, he lives in Sydney, but knows the world, understands the world and then a very, very deep understanding of world affairs. Thank you, Pete, for speaking to me and good luck to you.

• 15:44Speaker 01

  Thank you. It's very kind and I don't want to have the last word, but just to say that I think it's great because this is moving at such a pace. But the only thing I'd say is if we speak again and the straits of hummus are opened, it'll be a completely different discussion.

• 15:56Speaker 00

  Absolutely.

• 15:57Speaker 01

  Let's hope for that.

• 15:58Speaker 00

  And then that's a good, that's a good topic to take for the next one, straits of hummus. Thank you, Pete.

• 16:05Speaker 00

  Thank you for listening to the brand called You, videocast and podcast. A platform that brings you knowledge, experience and wisdom of hundreds of successful individuals from around the world. Do visit our website, www.tbcy.in to watch and listen to the stories of many more individuals. You can also follow us on YouTube, Facebook, Instagram and Twitter. Just search for the brand called You.