OpenAI’s o1 Reasoning Model Debuts, $2,000 ChatGPT, AI News Anchors

Parmy Olson of Bloomberg joins for our weekly discussion of the latest tech news. She's also the author of the new book, Supremacy: AI, ChatGPT, and the Race that Will Change the World. We cover 1) OpenAI's release of its new o1 model, that can do reasoning, also know as Q* or Strawberry 2) o1's features and what makes it different 3) Businesses struggling to find o1 uses 4) Investor concerns over AI 5) A precursor to AI agents? 6) OpenAI raising at a $150 billion valuation now 7) Would people pay $2,000 per month for ChatGPT? 8) When will OpenAI have to return its investment? 9) Lessons about Sam Altman and Demis Hassabis from Parmy's book 10) AI news anchor avatars --- Enjoying Big Technology Podcast? Please rate us five stars ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ in your podcast app of choice. For weekly updates on the show, sign up for the pod newsletter on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/6901970121829801984/ Want a discount for Big Technology on Substack? Here’s 40% off for the first year: https://tinyurl.com/bigtechnology Questions? Feedback? Write to: [email protected] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Alex Kantrowitz?

  OpenAI's new reasoning model called O1 has arrived. Is it a game changer or more of the same? Plus, will OpenAI charge some users $2,000 per month to use ChatGPT? And by the way, will it raise at $150 billion valuation? And are AI avatars about to do TV news? That's coming up with Bloomberg Tech columnist Parmy Olson, right after this. This episode is brought to you by Genesis. What does it actually take to put a Gentic AI to work across an entire enterprise? I recently spoke with Genesis chairman and CEO Tony Bates about why orchestration is emerging as a competitive advantage in customer experience and what companies need to get right in the AI era.

• 0:43Alex Kantrowitz?

  Then I sat down with Adam Mitchell, head of enterprise business solutions at Voya Financial, to go inside a large-scale agentic CX transformation, including the business decisions, trade-offs, and lessons along the way. You can watch both conversations now on my YouTube channel today. It's never been more challenging to get frontier compute. How do you know where to look, who to trust, or how much to pay? Akash is an open cloud that provides easy access, flexibility, and peace of mind. That's how companies like Razer were able to cut their inference cost by 15 times. Visit akash.network/alex for a free consultation. That's akash.network/alex for a free consultation.

• 1:28Alex Kantrowitz?

  Welcome to Big Technology Podcast Friday Edition, where we break down the news in our traditional, cool-headed and nuanced format. OpenAI has just released its reasoning model. It was called Strawberry as a code name, but now it's being called O1. And we're going to talk all about what it is, what it means, and where OpenAI and the AI race goes from here. And we have the perfect guest host for us to do it. Parmy Olson is here. She's a technology columnist with Bloomberg. And she's also the author of a new book out this week. It's called Supremacy: AI, ChatGPT, and the Race That Will Change the World. And what a week to release a book, because we are just like here flooded with AI news. Parmy, great to see you. Welcome to the show.

• 2:12Speaker 01

  Thank you. It's wonderful to be here. I'm a big fan of the show, so just so pleased to be able to talk to you.

• 2:17Alex Kantrowitz?

  Awesome. Well, thank you and thanks for coming on. Let's get to the big news, which is that we've been hearing rumors that OpenAI was going to release this strawberry model, which are, it was initially called Q-Star, and there were worries about it around the Sam Altman ouster, and it's here. And basically, the big thing about this model is that it does reasoning. And so you can ask it a question, and you can actually kind of see the way that it thinks through the problem. It goes through a bunch of different steps. And that's enabled it to be much, much better, more accurate, more competent, smarter than any previous model. So I'm like, looking at some of the charts that OpenAI put out with the

• 2:55Alex Kantrowitz?

  release, looking at accuracy. So if you think about competition math, GPT-4O was getting a 13.4 accuracy score on competition math. But this thing, and the way that it can think through the different problems, is getting 83.3 score on accuracy with competition math. So a jump from 13.4 to 83.3 on competition code, it goes from an 11 to an 89. And PhD level science question, actually, GPT-4O wasn't bad at a 56, but O1 preview, or, oh, sorry,

• 3:35Alex Kantrowitz?

  O1 gets a 78. And O1 preview, which is the model that's out now, gets a 78.3. Where an expert human gets 69.7 accuracy score. I think that's just the percent of questions they get accurate. That's the accuracy score. Pami, what do you think about the release of these models? Do they live up to the hype? I mean, we basically saw a moment where, you know, was Sam Altman pushed out of OpenAI because they thought he wasn't being careful about this type of model? Like, that was one of the assumptions. Are these a big step forward? What do you think about the release of these models?

• 4:10Speaker 01

  Well, first of all, I think I would put this into context of the huge amount of pressure that OpenAI has been under for the last year to get out something that's going to cause as much awe as ChatGPT did in November 2022, and DALL-E before that.

• 4:27Speaker 01

  Um, and I, I thought it was really interesting that in the last few months, we've been getting this sense that, hey, OpenAI has been announcing a lot of things, but it hasn't actually been launching the things that it's been announcing. So for example, you know, there was the whole, um, Sora video thing.

• 4:46Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yeah, where is that?

• 4:47Speaker 01

  Yeah, where, where is, where did that, where was that? Even, actually even GPT four O, the, the voice activated, the sort of voice, um, conversational, um, interface. I, there were, I, I just met people in San Francisco last week who were like, yeah, I, I still haven't been able to try that yet. It hasn't really fully rolled out.

• 5:06Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yeah, Parvi, can I tell you something about that? So first of all, like,

• 5:09Speaker 01

  No, please.

• 5:10Alex Kantrowitz?

  I've been, uh, wondering where it is because I've been signed up to ChatGPT Premium for a while and hope that I would get that new voice interface and I haven't gotten it yet. And I, over the past, so I'll just say this, over the past 24 hours, I've been monitoring the, uh, the chatter around this strawberry and O1 release. And my favorite exchange is Sam Altman announcing, I don't know if you've seen this, he says, rollout complete. It's live up of, uh, to a hundred percent of ChatGPT plus and team users now. This is of the new reasoning model.

• 5:41Speaker 01

  Oh, okay.

• 5:43Alex Kantrowitz?

  First replies is from this guy, Matt Paulson, who goes, when are we getting the new voice features?

• 5:48Speaker 01

  Well, yeah, do the thing you said you were gonna do first.

• 5:51Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yeah, and Sam responds, hey, how about a couple of weeks of gratitude for magic intelligence in the sky? And then you can have more toys soon. I mean, it was interesting, but also just like so revealing of the frustration. I think that you're noting of the fact that like, we haven't seen Sora released broadly. We haven't seen the voice features released broadly.

• 6:11Speaker 01

  And I think that's kind of the trap that Sam and his company has kind of put themselves in by just releasing a lot of demo wear, which is very exciting. And, but if you start getting people too excited for too long a time and then you don't give them anything, um, then they start to get a little bit frustrated and a little bit cynical of what's actually going on behind the curtain. And you know what? It's funny what you just said, that you've been signed up to premium. I have done exactly the same thing because I signed up to Claude. And I'm paying for two subscriptions to these things.

• 6:44Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yes, me too.

• 6:44Speaker 01

  But I'm keeping, I kept ChatGPT Plus because I wanted to try out the voice interface. And it still hasn't shown up on my phone either. So here we go.

• 6:54Alex Kantrowitz?

  Pardon me, it's funny because I also had, I was waiting for voice forever and it didn't come. So I unsubscribed for, from Plus and my subscription ends today. This was not planned. So I've been able to actually try out GPT-01 and it's been pretty interesting, but still no voice.

• 7:14Speaker 01

  So what, have you got only 12 hours left before your subscription?

• 7:18Alex Kantrowitz?

  Exactly. You know, there's like a monthly cap. There's a very small monthly cap or something like that, or weekly cap. And I have like not cared about rate limits. I've been like testing the crap out of this thing because I'm like, all right.

• 7:29Speaker 01

  You might as well.

• 7:30Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yeah. And can I, I'll just share like my initial reaction to it. And I'm curious what you think about it. It, it feels like this thing is extremely math and code based. Like that's where the actual breakthroughs are going to be. Like I said, when I was reading these benchmarks, it's competition math, competition code, PhD level science questions that it pauses. And by the way, when you're doing the queries, you can actually see it pause and think, think through each step.

• 7:56Speaker 01

  Or do we want to use the word think?

• 7:58Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yeah, I do, I do.

• 7:59Speaker 01

  Yeah, okay, go ahead.

• 8:00Alex Kantrowitz?

  Correct me on it, but you can see it like go and tackle. Now I'm getting nervous about think, but you can see it tackle each different step. And there was actually like, if you look at the consumer preferences, like the, or the human preferences, like where they'd want to use these new 01 preview models versus GPT-4O. They actually prefer GPT-4O for personal writing. It's about even on editing text. But where GPT, this, this 01 model really, really thrives is it's way, it's much more preferred for computer programming, data analysis and mathematical calculation.

• 8:39Alex Kantrowitz?

  And that's why I think that when you when you get into this, like, people start to judge is this a step forward? The people who are using it for more technical activities are really going to see a jump. And the people who are using it for more stuff like I would, like writing or editing text, aren't going to see it. So there might be a bias among journalists to pan this thing. Whereas like people in the technical fields are going to be seeing that there's there's real advances.

• 9:03Speaker 01

  Well, I think it's a good strategy, what you just described, that if this is a model that is perhaps more useful for people who are doing data analysis, they're scientists, they're coders. Then they've got a specific models which which just has a little bit more of a clear utility for them. Whereas if you're in marketing or you're in customer service, then you're more likely to use the previous model, something like GPT four O, which is a lot more sort of language oriented as opposed to reasoning oriented. I think that's no bad thing in terms of business use case, because I think till now, there's been this kind of

• 9:42Speaker 01

  this effort to try and create create this. Well, we started off with this ambition to create artificial general intelligence, right? That was the founding of OpenAI. We want to create AI that has the same broad cognitive capabilities as the human mind.

• 10:00Speaker 01

  And I think that actually has a big downside when you're actually trying to sell something packaged like that to businesses, which is that you're giving them this Swiss Army knife of a tool that has all these general capabilities. And the risk is that your end customer can end up just becoming paralyzed within decision on what to do. Like, if you talk to some businesses who are trying to figure out how to use generative AI models. I heard from one bank, for instance, they asked, they put out a survey to their employees just saying, how should we use generative AI? And they got more than a thousand responses back from their employees, which is great in one way. But in another way, it actually just makes everything take a bit longer.

• 10:44Speaker 01

  And in terms of figuring out a strategy on how best to use it. So I actually think from what you're describing, if the models are starting to kind of fracture a little bit, and there's going to be a sense going forward that you can use this type of model for mathematical-based processes and data analysis. And then you can use this kind for language processing. Maybe that kind of runs counter to the original ideology of, let's build a broad, godlike, general-level intelligent AI. Maybe it's moving away from that. But I think practically speaking, that kind of makes a bit more sense.

• 11:22Alex Kantrowitz?

  So one of the things I've been thinking about as O1 has released or Strawberry has released, has been, okay, so the models are smarter. Where's the application? I think you sort of brought that up. It's like, are we gonna? This is one of the things that has been sort of plaguing the AI industry, even though it's doing well, obviously. But it's been like, okay, the models are getting smarter, and they do magical things. But we still don't really know how to use them in practice. Right? This is actually something that I highlighted. There was a Grok engineer who said, "O1 seems powerful so far, but everyone is kind of unsure what to do with it." Kind of humorous place to be after all the speculation. So what do you think happens

• 12:07Alex Kantrowitz?

  as these models get smarter in fields like science and coding?

• 12:11Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think it's really interesting because there's this race in Silicon Valley to make everything more and more capable, which is disconnected, I think, a little bit from the sentiment among their enterprises, like businesses in the rest of the world, who are just like, we don't necessarily need AI that's more capable. We just, like, we're quite happy with what you've already put out there. Like, that is already pretty impressive and as a step change up from what was even available two years ago. So my sense over the last year has been, one thing that's been lacking from the AI model vendors, like OpenAI, like Anthropic, like Google, Microsoft with Azure,

• 12:56Speaker 01

  has been just to do a little bit more handholding with their business customers on how to actually implement the current models that are available. But I think there's just this kind of, you know... Rabid enthusiasm to try and just make these models smarter and smarter. We you've talked on your show before about the arms race. It's kind of had this, it's it's got this kind of self perpetuating cycle that, you know, even like Salesforce last night, just their their announcement got completely overshadowed by OpenAI. But they announced Agent Force, which is basically what they say is the very first AI platform for businesses that has autonomous agents.

• 13:41Speaker 01

  There are startups that have been talking about doing this, but haven't released this. And I haven't seen anything similar. I don't know if you have, but from from Google or OpenAI or even Anthropic, there people are talking about it. And it looks like Salesforce is the first to do it. So there's this real, and they're very proud of that. And so there's this real competition to

• 14:00Alex Kantrowitz?

  I'm just gonna call bullshit on that. I don't think Salesforce is gonna be the leader in AI agents or even the pioneer. I've heard people talk about things as AI agents, then you take a look at what it is. And it's like, there's no agent to it.

• 14:12Speaker 01

  Well, and what does the agent even mean, right? I mean, when I was I was talking to them about it and they were saying, I was saying, well, are you using the word bot and agent interchangeably? And they said, oh, no, no, no, bots, those are old. That's not the agents are new. That's that's the new thing. So a bot would be if you're talking to a customer service chatbot. And it just kind of is based on a large language model and uses predictive technology to to say something that sounds about right. Whereas an agent can actually resolve your issue by retrieving data about you, the customer, from the Salesforce CRM and the Data Cloud, which is one of their big services that came out two years ago. And so it means these things can actually take action.

• 14:57Speaker 01

  But I I'm I'm with you on that, Alex. Like, I don't. You know, we've seen so much of this in AI, just a lot of, a lot of big announcements, a lot of excitement. But then you see businesses actually just struggling a little bit to make these things work for them and work well.

• 15:13Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yeah. And so, so I'm just going to read a couple of examples of folks who've been trying out O1 and why this might be different. And, and I think it's, you're right to point out the difference between like chat and bots. Or bots and agents, because this is like from somebody who works at this company called Spellbook Legal. His name is Scott Stevenson. It's very interesting that he says, he says, "O1 is extremely good at long document manipulation. Docker vision is one of the hardest problems we've dealt with, like for example, taking a long set of instructions and modifying a legal document. And O1 is really good at this. When people are overwhelmed by O1, I think it's because they're thinking of it as chat still.

• 15:55Alex Kantrowitz?

  And its ability to do work is going to be really good once function calling is fully supported. So, you know, I think that like with these bots, it is definitely like, you know, we talked about handholding. And, you know, maybe these companies need to do a little bit more handholding, but I think often in technology what happens is they put the capabilities out there. And then people like Scott Stevenson, right, figure out the way to do it because they're just using it more often. And that's why they're putting this out in preview. And that's the, the sort of use cases that get spread by word of mouth or productized. And maybe that's what happens. And I would say that would be the argument to keep just building these, these models, making these models smarter.

• 16:38Alex Kantrowitz?

  And, and maybe the thing is that they've gotten so fast, so smart, so fast, that they've sort of outpaced the utility because we haven't had enough time. Or the industry hasn't had enough time to put their hands on and try things like this. What do you think?

• 16:51Speaker 01

  And actually digest it. Yeah, no, I think that's, that's a very, very valid point. And I think, you know, Coming from, so I'm based in London and I hear a lot more, I'm not, not being based in San Francisco. I'm not in the Silicon Valley bubble. So being in London, I hear a lot more of kind of the rhetoric from people on the east coast of the US, from Wall Street, from investors, from hedge funds, from healthcare companies, um, legal firms. And there, there's, there's a real sense of skepticism over the last few months, which I know you've, you've, you've talked about. And but I think it's not entirely warranted. And I think like this market correction that's happened in the last few months was healthy.

• 17:34Speaker 01

  Like it was, it was crazy that Nvidia became worth $3 trillion at one point in market capitalization. And I think that when people talk about hype, I think so much of the hype is about timelines. There's a sense that um, businesses and investors kind of got this impression that AI was going to start bringing a return on investment for companies sooner rather than later. Like I was talking to one CEO of an AI vendor a few months ago. And I was saying, so how are you going to measure, how, how are we going to measure success for generative AI? In terms of return on investment for businesses? And you know what he said? He said, in the next two or three quarters,

• 18:18Speaker 01

  you're just going to see more Fortune 500 companies um, report an increase in EBITDA numbers. Like they're just going to have higher profits. I, I, I just think that's ludicrous. Like, really? Like in the next two quarters, more businesses are just going to make more money because of AI? And that's how we'll know.

• 18:36Alex Kantrowitz?

  It's going to take time.

• 18:37Speaker 01

  It's going to take way more time than that. And that's been the case with every major tech revolution, whether it was search or um, desktop or mobile.

• 18:48Speaker 01

  We all know about the Gartner hype cycle and um, these things just take time to implement. So yes, if, if the AI vendors in Silicon Valley is racing ahead on capabilities, then sure, maybe the businesses just need to catch up.

• 19:00Alex Kantrowitz?

  And so with reasoning, reasoning, a lot of people have talked about how it lays the groundwork for these agents, because again, like seeing it, it's pretty amazing watching, using these models and then watching it go through the multi-step process. And the idea is like, all right, if you're going to have an agent that's going to go and take action for you on your behalf, it's going to need to be able to like process step by step in order to do that. And this is the way that OpenAI is describing it. So this is from their head of research, Bob Magoo, in The Verge. "We have been spending many months working on reasoning because we think this is actually the critical breakthrough. Fundamentally, this is a new modality for models in order to be able to solve the really

• 19:42Alex Kantrowitz?

  hard problems that it takes in order to progress toward human-like levels of intelligence." So I'm curious, like, do you, do you think this is the step, a step toward agents? And why, why is reasoning this sort of, as he describes it, the fundamental or the critical breakthrough?

• 20:01Speaker 01

  Well, I thought, I think that what you were just, you, earlier you described the tweet from someone and what they were describing in terms of when they played around with GPT, this new O1. It made it sound like there was some gray area here where it had almost agentic properties.

• 20:20Speaker 01

  Why is reasoning important? Well, I think this just gives it more broad, broader capability. And I think it's really interesting that OpenAI hasn't actually used the word agent once in its announcement, and it doesn't sound like any of its scientists have, have talked about that either. I noticed in-

• 20:38Alex Kantrowitz?

  Doesn't Bloomberg have this, like, didn't Bloomberg publish the OpenAI's, like, imagining its future? And it has like five levels, and level one is chatbots, level two is reasoning, level three is agents, level four is the AI innovates, and then level five is the AI does work at the level of an organization. So the, the suggestion would be that we're at level two-

• 20:59Speaker 01

  Yes, level two, yeah.

• 21:01Alex Kantrowitz?

  And that agent level is what's next.

• 21:03Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah. And also, I thought it was really interesting in, in OpenAI's, see, I think right now it's just a matter of- It's like you said, they they put the technology out there and they don't really know necessarily how it's going to be used. It's sort of the experimentation is done by everyone else out in in the world, in among businesses and organizations. They did give some suggestions in their blog post. So they said, I'm just reading from one section, which I thought was the most interesting, was that O1 can be used by healthcare researchers to annotate cell sequencing data, by physicists to generate complicated mathematical formulas needed for quantum optics. I'm going to stop there. Those are really, really specific things.

• 21:45Alex Kantrowitz?

  Technical stuff.

• 21:46Speaker 01

  Very specific. And then they end it with this bit. Then they say, and by developers in all fields to build and execute multi-step workflows. That's like anything, basically. So they go from, they basically make it so.

• 22:02Alex Kantrowitz?

  That guy who told you that the, you're going to see this in EBITDA in the next few quarters, maybe they're right. I don't know.

• 22:08Speaker 01

  You think he was right?

• 22:09Alex Kantrowitz?

  No, probably not. But I can see why he thinks that, right? Because, again, this is going to come to like the very labor-intensive, very value, high-value tasks in our economy. That's what it's going to do.

• 22:21Speaker 01

  Yeah. But don't you but don't you think also, like, already, there's been a lot of concern among businesses about hallucinations, right, from these models? Now, when you give them the capability of taking action, so again, sorry to go back to the Salesforce, but it's just because I have a concrete example that they gave me.

• 22:38Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yeah, let's use Salesforce.

• 22:39Speaker 01

  Which was, which was this agent, agent in their, in the customer service chatbot, which could retrieve data and basically resolve a ticket in the same way that a customer service representative would do. That's putting even more faith in these models. Like, it's one thing to make a mistake about information, but to actually screw up the process of, you know, resolving someone's complaint or getting some information for them. That's a bit more high stakes. So I'm, I, to be honest, I have no idea how this will play out. And I think businesses are going to be very cautious, just because.

• 23:22Speaker 01

  There has been so much concern about hallucinations till now.

• 23:26Alex Kantrowitz?

  Right. Yeah. And OpenAI even in its blog post says that it does not solve, this does not solve hallucinations. And then you can, you could also go to some of the critics, they've, they're having a field day with this. Here's Eric, sorry, Ed Zitron. We have our big stupid magic trick, folks. Strawberry. It's OpenAI's new model. It will take 10 to 20 seconds to give slightly better answers. And it's buggy. OpenAI is getting desperate and this is a real deal pale horse. I think that's a little bit over the top. What do you think?

• 23:58Speaker 01

  It has to be. I mean, it's so sad. That's, that's his thing. But I spoke to someone last night who had tried it as well. I haven't had a chance to try it myself. And they said they didn't, and this was someone who tries these models a lot. And they said they, they couldn't really see a big upgrade or a major step change. Or even a particularly big difference between what cla, Anthropic's Claude can do. But again, I, I really need to try this out myself. And I, and I think it's quite hard to kind of put a judgment. I mean, they literally announced it last night.

• 24:36Speaker 01

  So we're, we can all test it. We can all play around with it, but I think it will really, will really get a sense of how useful this is when, when people start using it for work.

• 24:44Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yes. Okay. So let's end this one just with the unfair question. Buying or selling the hype on, on strawberry or O1? I'll go first. I'm buying it. I'm buying it. I think it's going to be more difficult for like the quote unquote word cells versus the shape rotators, right? The people who deal in text versus the people who deal in numbers. But I think this was sort of a necessary step and you see the benchmark improvements here. And it's not going to look immediately just like the, you know, the way that some of the other, let's, let's say code completion. You know, initially where it's like, okay, so it can complete some code and now it's starting to really look like it can code things up on its own.

• 25:25Alex Kantrowitz?

  I think that this is going to be something that folks in the technical fields are going to use. And, and it will actually be a significant step up. Okay. How about you? Buying or selling?

• 25:37Speaker 01

  That's a hard one to answer. I guess I'll just say sell for now. Because this thing about the benchmarks, I personally don't fully understand the benchmarks and what they're weighted against and what they're sourced against. And, you know, are these completely standardized across the industry? Those are really impressive numbers, but what do they actually mean? And again, I think it's very hard to really judge this until you try it.

• 26:04Alex Kantrowitz?

  Right. And I'll just give one more piece of evidence on my side. I know this is unfair, but I just saw a thread with a stream of folks who've like tested O1 on their personal benchmarks. Like a lot of people have their own personal tests to give AI. And it's just like person after person talking about how much better it is than their previous tests. Okay, but the other thing here is really like, maybe, I don't know. Like this is preview, of course. And you mentioned it and you're totally right that we've seen Sora, which has been a lot of hype and not released yet. And we've seen the voice, GPT-40 voice application.

• 26:49Alex Kantrowitz?

  And the status of that is still, you know, up in the air. And, you know, should we give OpenAI a couple of weeks of gratitude for the magic intelligence in the sky and have more of our toys soon? I don't think so.

• 27:05Speaker 01

  Well, I'll just, having in spite of everything I've said, there is an argument that actually maybe behind the scenes, Sam Altman and OpenAI have just realized like they need to focus on one thing that really matters. And if I was going to look at those three things, like the voice interface, Sora and reasoning capabilities, hands down, the bigger deal is reasoning capabilities. So maybe what's happening behind the scenes is they've just put a pause on these two other things which aren't that important. And the reason I say that is because last week I talked to some people in the valley and

• 27:46Speaker 01

  A couple of times it came up that there are the, there's growing discontent about Sam Altman's general lack of focus and people are saying he's disorganized and they're trying too many things. And I spoke to one VC who even said that he was gonna meet Sam Altman that weekend. And I said, if you could give him one piece of advice, what would you tell him? And he said, I would tell him that he needs to look at everything he's doing and he needs to pick two things and just stick with those two things. And he said, even if one of those things is this big chip infrastructure project that he's, that's fine, do that, but then just do one other thing and nothing else. Because there, I think there is a concern that OpenAI has just got too many pans on the fire.

• 28:31Speaker 01

  And so, so yeah, so I would say, yeah, I wouldn't discount strawberry and slash O1. Just in case, actually, maybe what's going on here is that they've realized they need to just focus on the higher stakes, uh, bet that counts for more.

• 28:50Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yeah, Parmi, you're convincing me here because there would have been sort of rumblings and rumors going around that OpenAI has lost it and too many people left. Look, Ilya is gone, he just raised a billion and John Shulman's gone and, and he's at Anthropic now. And, you know, the, the rest of the leadership team has thinned out and there's been Steph Exodus. And OpenAI ruined itself. And I think we can say definitively, well, maybe not definitively, but we can say with good confidence now that the, the company is still pushing the envelope. And I was just on the chatbot, um, uh, chatbot arena where they battle different chatbots against each other and you vote which gives the best output.

• 29:34Alex Kantrowitz?

  And GPT-4O is still the winner there. So.

• 29:36Speaker 01

  Oh, really? More so than Claude?

• 29:39Alex Kantrowitz?

  Oh, yeah, it's, it's definitely above. It's actually Gemini is second. And this is where people vote on what's best. So now human manipulation could be responsible for some of it, but I do think that the death of OpenAI has been prematurely reported. That being said, there's a lot of competition, you know, we can, we can agree on that, but they're not dead yet.

• 29:58Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah.

• 30:01Alex Kantrowitz?

  And they also want some more money. So it brings us to our next story. This is actually coming from your outlet. Bloomberg has a report out that OpenAI's fundraising is gonna put the valuation of the company at 150 billion. And a couple of weeks ago, we just did a show talking about how it was gonna be 100 billion. And that's crazy. But they are, according to Bloomberg, in talks to raise 6.5 billion from investors and another 5 billion from debt, in debt from banks. So they're looking to basically bring in 11 billion dollars. And it's the round like we talked about in this on the show in the past, Thrive Capital, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple are all talking about getting involved. So what

• 30:46Alex Kantrowitz?

  do you think all this money is gonna go toward then? I mean, are they gonna even be able to justify that valuation? They're losing money, a lot of money now. I mean, what's the business case for investing in them?

• 30:59Speaker 01

  Well, I mean, they get a revenue share with Microsoft, right? From through Azure. So if Azure does really well, then Microsoft, then sorry, then OpenAI can do quite well. They've got the subscription business, which is actually pretty steady. They've got something like 200 million active users of ChatGPT. So, you know, I mean, it's not a bad business. You could say long term, that can grow to something quite impressive. But these things take time, right? I mean, with Amazon, it took many years for it to become a profitable business. And maybe people are looking at OpenAI in the same way. The problem is that, as you well know, building and improving foundation models is incredibly expensive.

• 31:42Speaker 01

  And it's not just the compute, right? It's the salaries, like these senior AI scientists and engineers.

• 31:49Alex Kantrowitz?

  How much are they making?

• 31:50Speaker 01

  Well, okay, so I spoke to someone about this who, from an organization that was trying to hire, you know, that just was asking questions about salaries. And so one kind of mid-tier AI startup was asked, so how much would you pay for like a senior AI kind of executive? And they said, it's basically around, over the course of four years, 6 million dollars. I've heard elsewhere, you know, two to three million dollars a year salary, including options.

• 32:19Alex Kantrowitz?

  Overtime.

• 32:19Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah.

• 32:20Alex Kantrowitz?

  And so one way they're trying to make the money back is potentially raising the subscription fees for these bots. I mean, they they don't make any money on the bots right now. But one report that came out of, I think, the information this week is that, um, let's see. It says in internal discussions at OpenAI, subscription prices ranging up to $2,000 per month were on the table. So basically, the thought is maybe that these new reasoning models, again, the ones that were released this week, preview and mini. So there's like an actual model that OpenAI has that, you know, I think will eventually make its way into the product.

• 32:59Alex Kantrowitz?

  And if the models do live up to this sort of improved benchmarks and become super valuable for some cases, maybe they can charge much more. Is that one way that they end up justifying the valuation?

• 33:12Speaker 01

  Maybe, but I can't see it being that high.

• 33:15Alex Kantrowitz?

  It's pretty high.

• 33:15Speaker 01

  I can totally, I can totally see big numbers being tossed around, though. And I'll give you a why, the reason why I think that is, it was last year, I was talking to somebody who was from an AI company that worked very closely with OpenAI and they they talked to people at OpenAI all the time. And they were like, oh, yeah, so Sam and OpenAI, they're doing another funding round and he wants to raise $100 billion. He was like, they're saying, that's what they're saying in the company. He's trying, and I was, I remember responding, you mean 100 billion valuation, right? And he said, no, no, no, they actually want to raise 100 billion. I don't, I could never corroborate that with anyone, but my sense is that big numbers get tossed around a lot.

• 33:59Alex Kantrowitz?

  Right.

• 34:00Speaker 01

  Maybe among, yeah, yeah, exactly. That's a great example, um, the whole $7 trillion chip thing. Was it 7 trillion? Yeah.

• 34:09Alex Kantrowitz?

  It was a 7 trillion, yeah.

• 34:11Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 34:11Alex Kantrowitz?

  Raising.

• 34:12Speaker 01

  So a lot of huge ridiculously galactic sized numbers get tossed around when people talk about OpenAI and probably inside OpenAI too. But, you know, fundamentally, to your point, do they need to raise the price? Yes, they probably do. I mean, look at us, we've both been paying for both Claude and ChatGPT, um, because it's sort of affordable. But maybe they they can afford to raise the price if they put in these capabilities where these systems. Become integral to your work process? Then yeah, maybe you'll just have to pay more and maybe they get away with it.

• 34:48Alex Kantrowitz?

  Is is one reason why companies like Nvidia and Apple and Microsoft might be involved in this round is just because like, even if they don't make their money back, if OpenAI is able to keep pushing the envelope, then their valuation will just go up like it's a smart investment like a almost like there was a moment where OpenAI said, if you're going to invest in us, that you actually think of it as a donation and maybe in what in these companies cases, that's fine because it is, it's going to work out for them if it works out.

• 35:16Speaker 01

  And also they can afford, they can afford to do it. Right? Like it's not like Apple has just been told like they had to put $13 billion in an escrow account to pay this Irish tax fine from the European Union and that even that's like, it sounds like a huge number, but really it's just pocket change for them. So an invest like an investment in OpenAI, I think the company that's completely on the forefront of AI right now, and it literally sparked the generative AI boom almost two years ago, I think is worth it for them.

• 35:48Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yep. Okay. One more question for you about funding. So every now and again, you get these rumblings that OpenAI might be trying to raise from like basically Gulf oil states. I'm going to get it wrong, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, but you know, of that nature.

• 36:05Alex Kantrowitz?

  It just kind of seems interesting to me that it's going to these states and like companies that initially started with this mission of AI being beneficial for the world, being like, you know, what we really need to do, like give an oil, you know, an oil oligarchy or, I don't know, authoritarian type country a stake in what we're doing. What do you think about that?

• 36:26Speaker 01

  Well, let's align our, or do we align ourselves with the oil oligarchy in the Middle East or the tech corporate oligarchy in the West? What to choose?

• 36:38Alex Kantrowitz?

  I would go with the tech ones, but anyway.

• 36:41Speaker 01

  Yeah, it depends which side of the, uh, which part of the world you're in and what you're on, what your worldview would be on that. I mean, there's so much money out there, right? They've got sovereign wealth funds, which means they can make these huge bets on risky investments. And Dubai and the UAE, there's been a lot of, there's been a big push to try and diversify away from their very, very big dependency on oil and try to move towards more, uh, more of a tech-based economy. Um, so it absolutely makes sense for them to be putting money into something like this.

• 37:18Alex Kantrowitz?

  Right. And you've been following these companies pretty closely, obviously writing the book about them.

• 37:24Alex Kantrowitz?

  Is there going to be a point where they just kind of run out of runway? Like, is this, is this sustainable?

• 37:30Speaker 01

  Is what sustainable? The money or?

• 37:32Alex Kantrowitz?

  All the money being spent on the training of the models and AI. I mean, it just, it's so capital intensive. Like eventually, and you're like, we were talking earlier about how it's going to take some time to figure out the use cases, even though there probably are use cases there. But like, how much time does this have before it has to show results that return on the investment?

• 37:53Speaker 01

  Maybe a few, I'd say a few years. And I think there isn't as much pressure on the big tech companies. Like I, I wouldn't, it's very tempting to just say it's not sustainable because it's so expensive and it's moving so fast and there's no obvious use cases. But you have to remember, these, these companies have billions of dollars on their balance sheets. They, they can totally afford this and they can afford to keep spending like this for the next few years at least. I mean, look how much money Mark Zuckerberg spent on the metaverse and that really went nowhere. And he's still like, Meta's still doing fine. In fact, Meta as a stock has outperformed all the other big tech companies in the last, I think, since the start of the year.

• 38:34Alex Kantrowitz?

  Thanks to its advertising. It's still called Meta, by the way. So maybe they haven't fully given up, but.

• 38:39Speaker 01

  Yes. He's in it for the long term, for the long haul. But yeah, I, I think they, they, I think they will continue to spend quite big on this for the next few years. And because they, you know, although they want it, they do need to see their enterprise. Like again, I'm thinking from the hyperscalers perspective, but you look, you talk to someone like Google and they have, like I literally asked someone from their cloud team last.

• 39:09Speaker 01

  Last week, um, you know, what what their inbound interest was for um from enterprise customers for Gemini and for their for their API. Um, and they were just couldn't, they couldn't give me a number, but they were like, it's so, it's just crazy, the amount of um usage that we have. And I was like, has it, has it doubled in the last year? It doubled would be an understatement. Like, the rate of of of usage increase, it has really gone up. So they're doing fine. But the the question is just like, um, whether businesses will continue spending on these models. Um, we can go into this if you want, but this is probably for a whole other episode. Like, how do you, how do you measure return on investment?

• 39:53Alex Kantrowitz?

  Right, it's not simple.

• 39:54Speaker 01

  And it's absolutely not. And I think people are starting to accept that. They're starting to see buying AI services as a bit like having email. Like, it's hard to measure as a business how much having email actually makes you money. But if you took email away from all your employees, your business would just fall apart. It's absolutely integral to operating. Um, and so I think there's a sense that AI will become like that. It will become a really important component of making a business more productive, but it will be really hard to measure exactly how it does that in numbers.

• 40:31Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yeah, but the thing is, most email programs are free, and this is very expensive to produce and run. But I think that's a, that's a quite, we'll, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. But I do want to hear a little bit more about um sort of your perspective on Sam and Demis, and if there's stuff that the public uh don't, don't know about them that they should know. And then I also want to talk about this story about how uh some local news sites are using people uh who are, who've turned themselves into AI avatars uh to read the news and like do local news programs. So why don't we do that right after this? This episode is brought to you by Avpoint. Everyone's racing to roll out AI right now. Co-pilots, chatbots, agents doing real work. But here's the part nobody loves talking about.

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• 43:05Alex Kantrowitz?

  And we're back here on Big Technology Podcast with Parmi Olson. She's the author of Supremacy, AI, Chat GPT, and the Race That Will Change the World. It's out this week. Okay, so Parmi, I'm curious, like, I think a lot of us have a perception of Sam Altman. Maybe many, but somewhat fewer have a perception of Demis Hassabis, who's the head of DeepMind at Google. What do you think, what did you learn about the two of them? That is not fully represented in the public consciousness that is important to know?

• 43:37Speaker 01

  Well, what I learned from both of them is that they both were incredibly mission-oriented people. They had very different personalities. Sam was a very outspoken, charismatic individual. He was an entrepreneur's guru. He, even after his company's first startup looped, essentially failed by Silicon Valley standards, he somehow managed to create this incredible respectability around himself among startups and venture capitalists in Silicon Valley as this almost Yoda of entrepreneurial advice. He would post blog posts with just like 99 pieces

• 44:22Speaker 01

  of advice for startups. And he was just incredibly good communicator and someone who would also, at the drop of a hat, help other entrepreneurs. So I've spoken to entrepreneurs who said, "Yeah, I just, you know, sent him an email. I didn't think he'd respond." And then he responded right away and introduced me to someone who helped me raise money. And so he has really engendered a ton of goodwill among startups because he's very responsive like that. And it's actually given him an incredibly powerful position in the valley just as a, as someone who's incredibly well-connected. And that was even before he started OpenAI, when he was the head of Y Combinator. Demis, on the other side of the ocean, very different

• 45:03Speaker 01

  kind of personality. He started off as a, he was a chess prodigy growing up, one of the best chess players in the world when he was only 13. And he was obsessed with games. He, I don't know if you ever played the video game Theme Park?

• 45:20Alex Kantrowitz?

  I haven't, but I've I know that's Demis's game. He did it as a teenager or something.

• 45:25Speaker 01

  He did it when he was seventeen. He co he co-designed it with Peter Molyneux at Bullfrog Productions. And then he went to Cambridge with the young and and started his own video game company. Which in the same way that Sam's first startup failed, Demis's first startup also failed. And both entrepreneurs really learned a lot from those failures. And both kind of came out of that with this goal of wanting to to build artificial general intelligence. Demis did it first. He was actually the first kind of put his neck on the line. As a among the scientific community to do something that was really a fringe theory. Back in the in two thousand and ten and start a company that actually wanted to build.

• 46:07Speaker 01

  Human level AI. It was seen as very crazy and nobody would. Put money. I actually spoke to an investor yesterday. Who was one of the VCs who didn't back DeepMind and now they absolutely are kicking themselves for it now. But it was just they had no business model. And the only way they could make money was raise money was to come to Silicon Valley where people are selling the future. And they raised money from Elon Musk and Peter Thiel. And then, of course, they they they built DeepMind. I mean. Demis, I think, is like a really fascinating character. He's absolutely obsessed with games. And he's also really, really good at winning games. If you ever play him at foosball, he will beat you. He's just like very, very good. Or chess or or soccer.

• 46:53Speaker 01

  And I think maybe that's also a trait he shares with Sam that they they both. You know, are very competitive and want to win. And Demis also has an incredible. Almost obsession with winning a Nobel Prize. This is what I've heard from people who worked with him. That that was kind of the goals that he put for the company. But I think both both men. You know, played in my mind, I wanted to kind of hang the story on these two guys. There's so many other, there's a huge cast of characters in the field of AI. But I don't like to tell a story about AI governance. Sometimes you just need to boil it down to a couple of people to make it just a little bit clearer and more simple. And so that's why I focused on just those two.

• 47:38Alex Kantrowitz?

  Okay, so how do these two entrepreneurs go from these idealists who like are trying to like solve all the world's problems to people who just have to basically one goes into Google, the other one is raising billions from Microsoft?

• 47:55Alex Kantrowitz?

  Is it just that AI is so expensive to build that they had no choice but to sort of go from idealism to money? And like we mentioned in the first half, you know, basically, you know, I don't know, maybe even knock on like the Gulf Oil States doors and ask them for cash?

• 48:11Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's a real, this is really a story of people essentially compromising their original principles. And I think the thing with these two charac- with these two characters, Sam and Demis, is that they're both such extraordinary individuals. They have an, they're incredibly passionate and capable, but they're also incredibly competitive and they wanted this goal of building AGI so much that they were willing to pay a price to do that. Some people would call that a Faustian bargain.

• 48:51Speaker 01

  Sorry, it's a very kind of... Do I think they're going to actually reach AGI?

• 48:55Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yep, that's the question.

• 48:57Speaker 01

  I don't know that I really believe in the whole idea of AGI. I think it's a construct that is very, almost marketing driven to get people excited about AI.

• 49:13Speaker 01

  I think what, in the same way that many, many years ago, people imagined the future as being so different, we would have flying cars, you know, it would be more like the Jetsons, but what ended up happening is we just had the internet. So I feel like... What we'll actually end up having with AI won't be how we

• 49:33Alex Kantrowitz?

  The internet and the Cybertruck.

• 49:33Speaker 01

  We have, yes, exactly. We have this kind of very, humans instinctively have this romanticized view of what future tech will look like, and we often get it wrong, and we often personify it way too much. So I just don't see it necessarily being in the way these Demis and Sam envisioned as being kind of omniscient, almost, in its ability to solve our problems, like to solve climate change or to cure a certain disease. I think it's going to be a bit more nuanced and complex than that. But I think, yeah, to your question about, you know, what

• 50:12Speaker 01

  happened in terms of those, the ideals they had, they were both just so intent on realizing their goal that they, they paid that price of aligning themselves with the companies that were going to give them the resources to actually build AI. But it meant they had to give up that responsible governance that they were trying to put in place.

• 50:38Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yep. Okay, one more story I want to get to before we head out, which is, I was looking up your interviews on YouTube and saw you like stand before the camera and deliver this monologue. And as I'm watching, I realized, oh, that's not Parmy, it's AI Parmy.

• 50:54Speaker 01

  Oh, Jesus.

• 50:55Alex Kantrowitz?

  And you're the perfect person to speak about this, because this week I read a wild story in Wired about a Hawaiian journalist who worked at this paper called The Garden Island. And basically, it is a print type, not printed, it's a words news site, and it's covering this island of, you know, a couple thousand people, maybe 10, no, maybe like 70,000 people or so. And the news site all of a sudden started to do news video. And who are the anchors of this, these news videos? They're actually AI avatars that will basically take news from the site and then read them to you and you can watch the video as if it's like a regular

• 51:39Alex Kantrowitz?

  bit of news. So just thinking about the direction of AI, we were like talking earlier about like the ways that it might be applied. What do you think about the fact that, um, you know, we're starting to see effectively news anchors? Being, I don't want to call it replaced yet, but being mimicked by AI avatars like the one that you became in your video and actually reading real news to real people on news sites like the Garden Island.

• 52:06Speaker 01

  I think in a nutshell, I think our future is just going to be so noisy. We're going to have so, so much information in so many different forms. It's going to be not just text. We're going to have so much more video. We're going to have so many more images because AI is just going to be generating so much of it.

• 52:25Speaker 01

  And that's come like whenever I talk to businesses about how they're using generative AI, they always, always say, we're not replacing jobs. We're, we're, we're not replacing humans. We're augmenting them. Which I think like it sounds a bit just disingenuous and that's just their way of protecting themselves reputationally. But it's kind of true. Like I think we are, in the case of the newscasters, like it's not replacing newscasters, right? It's just creating more videos for people to watch potentially of news so that they don't necessarily read it on text. It's just another way of consuming news. And that's what I see potentially happening with generative AI is that,

• 53:10Speaker 01

  well, I, I genuinely cannot see major TV news networks replacing their anchors with generative AI anchors anytime soon, you know, if ever. But I certainly could see, you know, local radio stations, local website, not even local TV stations, but like.

• 53:29Speaker 01

  Really small outlets that just don't do video. Now here's a chance for them to do video. And so we're just going to have lots, lots more video content available to us through all sorts of different platforms.

• 53:41Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yeah, it's amazing. I was like thinking about it for a big technology. Like what would have happened? And obviously the technology is not there yet. But like, what would have happened if we would have fed some AI? The news stories about strawberry and, and the OpenAI evaluation? And then written like one sentence sort of perspectives from each of our side? And then fed the AI your book? And then say, create a podcast episode. I mean, that stuff is crazy. Now, I would never do it. I think that our stuff is better than what you would get from AI generated slop. But I, yesterday I, I spoke with an editor who had his body scanned and uses this video as an added, added feature on his website. And it was amazing.

• 54:24Alex Kantrowitz?

  He was like, first of all, he was like working with the software company. And was like, my accent is, is, and my English is not as good as your technology is making it out to be. So I wanted it to sound like his quote was dirtier. You know, I think he meant rougher. Not like, I don't think he wanted it with swear words and stuff. And, and they did it. And it sounds a lot and looks a lot like him. And they're getting thousands of views on each of these videos.

• 54:53Speaker 01

  They're getting thousands of views, really?

• 54:54Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yeah.

• 54:55Speaker 01

  See, this is what I don't get is do people actually like this? And I think what is going to happen, I mean, you said thousands of views, right? So the more people see AI generated content, the more they get used to it. And the more they get comfortable with it. So even though avat- video avatars of news anchors and this gentleman you mentioned probably look a little bit uncanny valley. Actually, if you watch that kind of content for long enough, you start to just be okay with it. And then maybe like when it comes up in your TikTok feed or Instagram, or you find it on a website, you just, you click on it because you're okay with it. You're used to it.

• 55:35Alex Kantrowitz?

  Exactly. Oh, God. Well, everybody, this has been a real discussion between real me. And I hope that this is real you, Parmi.

• 55:44Speaker 01

  As far as I can tell.

• 55:45Alex Kantrowitz?

  Give a sign of life. No, I couldn't tell.

• 55:47Speaker 01

  Thumbs up.

• 55:48Alex Kantrowitz?

  There's a thumbs up. All right, right. Your avatar couldn't do that because it's just.

• 55:51Speaker 01

  Yeah, see? There we go.

• 55:53Alex Kantrowitz?

  Okay, so, but I am so glad we got a chance to speak. And I do encourage people to pick up the book. It's called Supremacy: AI Chat GPT and the Race That Will Change the World in Man Supremacy. It's the right, the right title for it, right?

• 56:08Speaker 01

  Oh, thank you.

• 56:08Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yeah. Well, congratulations on the release, Parmi. Great speaking with you. Thanks again for coming on.

• 56:13Speaker 01

  Oh, likewise. This was really fun. Thank you.

• 56:16Alex Kantrowitz?

  And it was for me as well. All right, everybody. Thanks for listening. On Wednesday, I'll have an interview with the CEO of LinkedIn, Ryan Ruslanowski. So stay tuned for that. Yes, we're talking about AI. Of course, we are. They're a Microsoft subsidiary. And, and then I'll be back on Friday with Ron John breaking down next week's news. Thanks again for listening and we'll see you next time on Big Technology Podcast.

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