Apple’s Most Ambitious Roadmap Ever? + OpenAI vs. Google vs. Anthropic Revisited

MG Siegler is the author of Spyglass. Siegler joins Big Technology to discuss Apple’s sudden burst of new products and what it means for the company as John Ternus takes over from Tim Cook. Tune in to hear why Apple’s foldable iPhone could reinvigorate the business, how its new hardware strategy marks a departure from the past, and what challenges Ternus will face as CEO. We also cover Google’s shifting AI strategy, OpenAI’s resurgence, Anthropic’s potential IPO, and the increasingly blurry meaning of AGI. Hit play for a wide-ranging look at Apple’s new era and the rapidly changing competitive landscape in artificial intelligence. --- Enjoying Big Technology Podcast? Please rate us five stars ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ in your podcast app of choice. Want a discount for Big Technology on Substack + Discord? Here’s 25% off for the first year: https://www.bigtechnology.com/subscribe?coupon=0843016b Stop online threats before they become real-world attacks. Visit ⁠ironwall.com/BIGTECHNOLOGY⁠ and request a free Risk Assessment to see exactly how exposed your executives are. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

• 0:00Speaker 00

  Apple is all of a sudden flush with new products. What's happening at that company? And let's reassess the competitive balance between OpenAI, Google and Anthropic. That's coming up with MG Siegler of Spyglass, right after this. This episode is brought to you by Genesis. What does it actually take to put a Gentic AI to work across an entire enterprise? I recently spoke with Genesis chairman and CEO Tony Bates about why orchestration is emerging as a competitive advantage in customer experience and what companies need to get right in the AI era. Then I sat down with Adam Mitchell, head of enterprise business solutions at Voya Financial to go inside a large scale agentic CX transformation, including the business decisions, trade offs and lessons along the way.

• 0:44Speaker 00

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• 1:16Speaker 00

  Welcome to Big Technology Podcast, a show for cool headed and nuanced conversation of the tech world and beyond. Well, we are airing this on Wednesday, September 9th, which means Apple has a big event coming with a slew of new products and it looks very different from the Apple of old that just seemed to refine the existing products. We actually have some new models and brand new ideas coming from the company. So we're going to discuss all of that. We're also going to talk about the state of the OpenAI, Anthropic and Google competition. Now that OpenAI has released Asura, Anthropic seems to be on the doorstep of an IPO and Google, of course, is in the middle of some serious changes within its AI effort. So it's good to see you, MG.

• 1:59Speaker 00

  It's the first week of the month and here we are back together. Welcome back to the show.

• 2:04Speaker 01

  Great to be back, Alex, back to school, back to Apple. It's all, it's all setting up well for the fall.

• 2:10Speaker 00

  Yeah, back to Apple and you know, we were used to, you know, a certain cadence of routine, right? Every September, Apple talks about iPhones and this event has sort of taken a secondary position compared to WWDC, which is where, if we're being honest, all the action has happened. Everything that's happened with an Apple that's been notable recently has likely, has been mostly on the software side of things. Apple Intelligence, even, you know, a year, a couple, year and a half ago, Liquid Glass, although I don't think we need to really talk about that. But now the iPhone event is taking center stage again and we have actual new products from Apple, not just a refinement of what has traditionally been, you know, the latest iPhone model. So let me just quickly set it up by reading what the preview from Bloomberg.

• 2:55Speaker 00

  This is from Mark Gurman, "Apple kickoff Ternus era with its biggest ever slate of new products. Apple has spent much of the past 15 years refining existing product lines and launching services to generate more recurring revenue. That is all about to change, beginning at the company's September 9th Surprise and Shine event." So they've been playing up the surprise element. I'll just read the first product, then we can get into it. First product coming, the foldable iPhone. It's the centerpiece of this year's product rollout and it's going to be a foldable smartphone that many people inside Apple refer to as the iPhone Ultra. It will have a large interior screen with a small external display and it'll be about this, and it'll be about the size of a passport when folded.

• 3:37Speaker 00

  It has touch ID support, split view multitasking and advanced hinge, whatever that means, and a crease that is far less apparent than on prior foldable devices. The price is expected to be $2,000. New Apple, new phone, new leader. What do you make of all this?

• 3:55Speaker 01

  You hit it on the head, I think. It is interesting that the past several years, right? WWDC has taken over that mantle for Apple's big event. And I think you're exactly right. It's because software has mattered so much more because we've known what we're going to get every single year from Apple on the iPhone and the hardware side. It's basically since iPhone 10 roughly, you know, it's been roughly the same story for, in terms of the flagship iPhone. Obviously there's little tweaks here and there and there's some size changes and upgrades for sure, but it's still largely the same, you know, overall shape and, and size that we've had before. This year, something new, finally. Obviously they haven't confirmed it yet, but I mean, this is so, this has to be one of

• 4:36Speaker 01

  the most well-reported on devices now in history, given not only the Gurman reports, but also just the supply chain stuff, right? And now the fact that Samsung has their competitive version of the product already out in market and a few other of the handset makers, Motorola, et cetera, have all done sort of these foldables, even Google, of course, a few years ago. And so everyone has been waiting for this and we talked about it previously. Like I think that Apple set this up well. I think it's going to be a huge hit for them, even though, as you noted, it's insane, it's going to be insanely expensive. I think that they teed that up sort of well, too, with their new sort of pricing strategy, right? Where they're sort of have some new options to perhaps obfuscate just how expensive everything is.

• 5:22Speaker 01

  And I think people are just going to be excited about having a new form factor. And I think the form factor they chose, which is a little bit different than what Google and some of the others have done in the past on the folding side. I think it, it sounds good on paper. I even obviously used it, held it. I debated sort of trying to buy one of those Chinese demo units, just to see what it would feel like, sort of that size and ratio in hand. I didn't go down that path, but, but I do, I think it's, it's setting up well to be a good device. And I think the fact that Samsung has noted, you know, they released their version of the Galaxy flip phone that has that same sort of aspect ratio and the passport style, as you noted. I think the fact that that seems to be doing well, the reviewers love that thing. I think the form factor is going to be, going to be a winner.

• 6:08Speaker 00

  Right. And so when Samsung made its big foldable phone push in 2021, interesting thing happened. So first of all, their overall sales went up by 6%, but revenue went up 11%. And I think when you look at what Apple is doing, remember, you know, up until the 17, the iPhone sales were effectively stagnating, right? 17 had a bunch of new features people liked and now we're seeing some good sales. They've been up, I think, 21% quarter over quarter or year over year in the first quarter of this year or the most recent quarter. I always get mixed up, which what Apple refers to as the first quarter, second and third, but the most recent quarter up 21%. I think the quarter before that up 20%. That's, that's sales.

• 6:50Speaker 00

  But, but ultimately I think with these models, people have been hanging on to them longer and there's only a certain level of price that you can get. And so if you're thinking about what Wall Street is going to care about, you sort of set yourself up in a tough position and that's why you've been relying so much of your Apple. You've been relying so much on services. With a $2,000 plus phone, all of a sudden your upper bound of the amount of sales that you can get is much higher. And so when you have a new CEO coming in, like John Ternus is coming in, what you want to do is be able to go to the market and be like, we're just getting started in terms of the revenue increases you can see under me. And I kind of wonder if that's what's in the back of their minds or in the front of

• 7:31Speaker 00

  their minds and whether that is sort of the driver of the timing that we're seeing for the Cook-Ternus changeover.

• 7:39Speaker 01

  I mean, we talked about it a little bit even before, when the Cook stuff was just rumored, right? Like one of the things that we went back and forth on was the notion that this could be the right time for, for Cook to take a step back because of exactly what you're talking about, because the pipeline, the potential setup, you know, to put someone in Ternus, in Ternus, someone like Ternus in his place after the amazing run that Tim Cook has had from a stock perspective and obviously revenue and the business perspective. Like how do you, how do you follow that up? It's going to be very hard regardless, of course, but you've tried to do that by setting your successor up with a great product lineup, you know, and a lot of things in the chute that are ready to roll.

• 8:18Speaker 01

  And it feels like, again, you know, the Apple famously has, has just over the years, while they've kept iPhone prices steady until recently, and we can talk, you know, a bit more about that with all the component issues and the memory chips and whatnot and supply chain stuff. But so they've been able to mostly maintain price consistency across certainly the iPhone lineup. But the, what they've done is basically raise the average selling price over time by keeping, by introducing the Pro models and the Pro Max models, and now the quote unquote Ultra model, if that's indeed what they call it. And so that, of course, what's it going to do, the average selling price? It's going to jack it way up if this thing is over $2,000.

• 9:00Speaker 01

  Now, maybe their margins, you know, again, their margins are obviously impacted by all the component stuff that we just mentioned, but, but still it's going to look good when all of a sudden analysts see, yeah, the average selling price of the iPhone continues to go up under Ternus. Like, you know, Wall Street has nothing to worry about because we've got all these new products in and, and people are excited about new Macs and, you know, new Mac minis for, for the AI revolution and all this sort of the stuff that's sort of come in. And so, yeah, it felt like Cook teed him up well and Apple overall is in a, is in a good spot for the foreseeable future with that pipeline.

• 9:37Speaker 00

  Now Motorola also, you mentioned them, when they released their flip phone, their folding phone, their sales went up 21% and average sales price went up, I think, 17%. So clearly when companies do this, there's like a predictable windfall at the end. I've always said that people with folding phones, they just look happier than people with phones that don't fold. I'm curious, like, if you could talk a little bit, because you've looked into the product as well, obviously, you know, you thought about getting one of the demo models. Talk a little bit about what the phone is going to look and feel like. You mentioned it's kind of like passport style. I don't know if it 100% looks the way that I expected. It might be a little bit like, the height might be a little smaller than I anticipated.

• 10:19Speaker 00

  So I'd love to hear your perspective just on like what this is going to look like. And, you know, I think we both believe that it's going to be a hit, but why you think it will be a hit?

• 10:28Speaker 01

  So I've had the past two pixel, I've had three different versions of the Pixel Fold. Um, and I have the, not the current, the one that they just released, the 11, but I have the 10, the Pixel Fold 10, and it's a different form factor is noted, like it's longer. Um, uh, you know, to your point, it's not sort of the passport style, but I basically buy them. It's my, you know, Android test device, my backup to my iPhone, but it's also, um, just to be able to test out the flip, you know, what the foldable features feel like and, and how I would actually potentially use them. I do think, again, this iPhone form factor, I think is smarter. I think the, the Pixel Fold, to me, felt a little bit awkward in that it feels like it's very sort of narrow when you're holding it,

• 11:11Speaker 01

  um, folded, straight on, um, it's very tall and narrow. It's, you know, it feels a little bit like a standard phone, but a little bit more narrow. But then when it's open, um, you know, it's much more of a, of sort of a rectangular square, almost square. Um, and it feels, uh, good, obviously for watching media and whatnot. And that's obviously how they feel that these devices, you know, give them an advantage, um, in the market right now. Um, but I think the iPhone, uh, I think what Apple will hit on here is, I think, the slightly more passport-like shape, um, in, when I'm envisioning it, I think about like right now with the current, I have a Pro Max, so it's obviously the massive one and it's, and it's very tall. It's obviously hard, a little bit challenging with some, uh, pockets to fit in, uh, pants pockets.

• 11:56Speaker 01

  And I, so I think that the, the new passport style foldable will do a little bit better in that regard. But it's also honestly just a little weird to type on. I've always sort of thought that because your hand, your fingers are so close together, uh, your thumbs are so close together when you're typing. I think this will elongate it a little bit and make it a little bit easier. I've called it in the past, like wondering if it's going to be more like a BlackBerry of old, obviously without the physical keys. But still that, that style of, um, you know, that, that basic, um, shape, I think was actually a very good, um, sort of typing shape. And so I think it might be good in that regard. Um, but it will be very interesting how Apple does the OS for this, right? Like there have been reports that it's going to be sort of a hybrid between iOS and, and iPad OS.

• 12:39Speaker 01

  It's not going to be full on iPad OS when you open it up. So it's not like switching between two different operating systems. But again, sort of like a hybrid in-between version of those. And I do think that Apple can do some pretty interesting things, uh, when you do unfold that device. Um, obviously side by side multitasking is something that everyone does right now. But it'll be curious if Apple does some stuff, and of course they will, they'll have, they'll want to play it up in the, in the marketing of it. Like what this device can do that other foldables can't do. And so what are those sort of software features that they come up with, um, that are unique to this iPhone Ultra, if they call it that? Um, and again, when it's folded, it's still going to be an iPhone. It's going to be a little bit different of a form factor, but that is how I envision it. I envision it when it's folded up, it's sort of your standard iPhone.

• 13:23Speaker 01

  Uh, maybe they have a little bit, you know, more fun with the widgets or whatnot because of the slightly different, uh, screen size. But then when it's unfolded, that's when it becomes really interesting. I am a huge fan, and I have been forever of the iPad Mini. I know, um, I'm sort of a, a little bit far afield of that. They've obviously been, been selling them and making them for years now, but most people tend to buy, you know, a regular sized iPad or an iPad Pro model. I like the Mini and this, uh, by all accounts is going to be a very similar size, uh, to the Mini when unfolded. And so I think that that's, it's going to be really interesting as a, yeah, media consumption device and potentially multitasking stuff.

• 13:58Speaker 00

  Right. So I guess like for me, the real question is, is this, is this going to be media first or like business first, right? Is this going to be a device where the pitch is going to be, it's easier to type and you can do your emails on it? Or is it going to be like, you can watch YouTube and Netflix on it? Uh, and sort of like, cause that's the, the, when I think of somebody being happy with a foldable phone, I think of them kind of, you know, grabbing their seat in the airplane, unfolding the phone and like hitting YouTube or Netflix right away and getting this big smile on their face. So I'm curious what you think. Is there, I mean, with iPhone, obviously it's both, but do you think there's going to be a, you know, a lead use case for this?

• 14:38Speaker 01

  You're giving me an idea in real time of, of an angle to take, uh, for this, which is like, it's sort of like the mullet iPhone, right? So it's a, it's a party, it's a party when unfolded, but it's straight in center, like when it's folded up. So again, it's like, it's sort of like business, you got your regular phone, uh, folded up. You're just doing that, you're, you're doing some emails, you're doing some, some typing, you're maybe taking phone calls and, and you're doing some other stuff, uh, quickly. Um, but then when you have some time to sort of sit back and, and lean back experience, which again, like from the, from the original introduction of the iPad with Steve Jobs sitting, sitting on that leather chair, right? It's like, that's the sort of lean back experience and, and you can sort of relax a bit. And that's sort of how I view it. I wouldn't be shocked if they, if they play that up.

• 15:20Speaker 01

  Obviously they'll want to still talk about the productivity gains you can get from unfolding and having a bigger screen. But I do think a lot of it, you're exactly right, is going to be, yeah, just like, um, watching YouTube, watching, um, videos and then reading. Um, and, and again, they'll play up multitasking side-by-side apps, which will be great. Um, but a lot of it will be that, again, lean back experience. And again, so it's a sort of a, a party, a party, uh, when unfolded and all business when folded type thing, the mullet iPhone.

• 15:50Speaker 00

  I'm ready to party. I mean, I do enough business travel that all, the way that we're talking about it. Uh, even though the price tag is so high, it kind of starts to feel like something I might want to have, especially for flights and airports. Like, you know, just trying to think, all right, I'm doing email on the phone. Now I get to the terminal, there's an hour, an hour and a half or two hour delay, which is really common. Um, might be nice just to like, kind of lean back in the chair with a bigger screen, uh, and like watch some YouTube or Netflix until the flight comes.

• 16:20Speaker 01

  Yeah. And imagine like, obviously there's a lot of people who have both an iPhone and an iPad or, or an Android device in some tablet. Um, be it an iPad or whatnot, and just think if you can sort of consolidate that. Now Apple, Apple will never play that up, of course. They want you to buy both. Um, and I have historically, again, you know, bought both, but there is a world in which this certainly replaces that iPad Mini. Um, you know, in, in your lineup, uh, if you have that. And I think you're right. And then I, then it comes down to like, how does the battery life look, right? On this thing and, and how well can they get that, um, running with the two screens? And, um, how heavy is it, of course, and, and just how good is that hinge that you mentioned? And how good is that? And how, uh, not visible is that fold, invisible is that fold?

• 17:04Speaker 01

  Uh, you know, that, that'll, those will be the, the key issues.

• 17:08Speaker 00

  Now it's an advanced hinge, MG, so clearly.

• 17:10Speaker 01

  Super advanced hinge. Uh, you, you laugh, but I remember like, um, what was that device? Remember Microsoft made the Surface Duo? Do you remember that? Um, it was like, yeah, the Surface that was a small phone foldable. Um, and it was probably ahead of its time, honestly. It looked, it always looked sort of cool. Um, you know, it didn't have the exactly, uh, the ecosystem that, that certainly Apple has and, and whatnot. But, um, they, I remember them playing up how good the hinge was and people talking about how good that hinge was. And I could say like, you know, again, with the Pixel Fold, like the hinge is fine, but it's a little bit hard to open. It's not perfect. It's a little, it's a little awkward, like open it and then close it. I always worried I'm like pushing too hard or, or, you know, applying enough pressure to sort of fully open it.

• 17:54Speaker 01

  Um, it's gotten a little bit better over time. And again, the crease has gotten less noticeable, but that's still definitely there on that device. And so if Apple nailed, you know, that, that hardware element of it, that advanced crease, like it could be a delight to open. Imagine that.

• 18:09Speaker 00

  Imagine that. Well, I was going to say you definitely want to get Apple care for these devices. And then it's just like, oh my goodness, there, there's the player right there, right? It's a $2,000 plus phone. I'm sure it'll be $300, uh, maybe $300 for two years or 400 for two years to get the care package on it and then services revenue grow right with it.

• 18:28Speaker 01

  That's a good point. And, and yeah, and they'll be talking that up in retail stores because as, as much, uh, as many, as many broken iPhones as they seen, have seen with just the front face, uh, you know, the front facing screen. Now we have what? Triple the amount of screen real estate, right? That, that, uh, that you need to protect. And so there's going to be a lot of people, uh, unfortunately that, you know, break these things. Obviously they'll play up the notion that it's the most durable phone yet, yada, yada. But yeah, you're going to want that. Um, and one other thing, you brought up Samsung when they originally launched, um, you know, their foldables back in the day. Remember there was a huge backlash against it because they would, they had all sorts of issues. Um, I think in, in part with the hinge, but then there was the screen like that would sort of like,

• 19:12Speaker 01

  people were removing part of it that they weren't supposed to remove. And, and then like they were removing like things. And so dust would get into the screen and it was sort of a disaster. Obviously they've solved all those issues, uh, now, but there's still going to be new things that pop up at iPhone scale. When people have, you know, a foldable, you know, with, that's selling tens of millions, if not more, uh, you know, units every single year. Like what are the new weird things? There'll be of course, people who bend it the other way to prove that it can bend, you know? It's, it's not invincible and there'll be all sorts of fun class action lawsuits, undoubtedly that, that arise as these new form factors come into play.

• 19:46Speaker 00

  Definitely. And this is of course coming as John Ternus kicks off his tenure as the CEO of Apple. So I do want to get into some of the other products we're going to see at the event, but we should also talk a little bit about Ternus. Uh, what the beginning of his tenure is going to look like and some of the challenges that he's going to face. Now, uh, I was on CNBC last week talking a little bit about the Ternus era and the challenges that are coming his way. And, um, you know, the first thing I pointed out was like his job number one is just to sell iPhones. And it sounds simplistic, but like when Apple is selling iPhones, everything else falls from there. There's better services revenue, uh, obviously investors are looking at it. It's making up more than 50% of the company's sales. Uh, and so, you know, that's job number one.

• 20:27Speaker 00

  And it's not going to be, you know, the easiest thing in the world because he's going to deal with the memory crunch hitting. Just as, you know, he sort of takes in and obviously they've raised prices on the laptops already, but they haven't raised prices on the phones yet. And he's the product guy. He's not the supply chain guy, although we'll talk about it a little bit more. Tim Cook is going to stay pretty active. So what do you think, um, in terms of the challenges that Ternus is going to face as he takes over? And how big and important is the fact that he's going to have memory components that used to be one price? And now might be three, four, five X what they, what they were previously.

• 21:05Speaker 01

  Yeah, we talked about, you know, Apple teeing up Ternus well and obviously Cook's transition and it seemed like it was all going to be perfect. And then this wrench got thrown in there, right? There's always the one more thing with Apple and there was a one more thing here with this transition and it is a big deal, obviously, to the point where, again, you know, Cook's come out and, you know, tried to take the brunt of it, right? Like tried to, you know, come out and speak to the press and also get some of these price changes done ahead of time before Ternus took over so that the new CEO didn't all of a sudden come into a nightmare. And we talked previously about like, you know, the situation at Disney before, you know, when Iger stepped away the first time and what a sort of precarious situation Bob Chapek walked into. And again, that was like

• 21:48Speaker 01

  an unforeseen thing with COVID and everything that happened. But so you got to prepare for these things as best you can. And so again, I think Cook has done everything that he could to set Ternus up well, even with this situation. And it's interesting that Cook, obviously famously is the logistics guy and the one who would be, you know, best suited presumably to deal with this part. Whereas Ternus is, you know, the hardware guy, the hardware operations guy, setting up all the new devices and whatnot. And so you would have thought that they also thought that they were setting him up well with all these new things, including the foldable coming in, because obviously he's overseen all of that work for years leading up to this release. And so it's like, great, he can, he can speak to that like it's secondhand. But now, to your point, he does have to speak

• 22:32Speaker 01

  to all of these big macro issues. And then, of course, there's the geopolitical stuff, which is important that Cook is still there, right? Like, that's, you know, new reports today about his pay package and just how important he clearly will remain, even though he's taking a step back out of the CEO role as executive chairman. He's getting paid CEO level money and that's for a reason, you would assume. And that's including, you know, dealing with the supply chain stuff, presumably helping to deal with that, but also the geopolitical stuff.

• 23:04Speaker 00

  Right. What about AI? I really can't sort of put my finger on how important AI is going to be for Ternus. I mean, obviously, the answer is very important, but we are in this AI moment and Apple, like we said, they're surging in sales. They have new products coming. The AI-first device just hasn't arrived yet. And so I'm curious, like, and I guess like with WWDC, Apple seems to have basically assuaged a lot of concerns with this new Siri that still hasn't fully rolled out yet, but people are starting to say, okay, it's good. Where does AI fit for Ternus? And how comfortable do you think he should be with where Apple is today?

• 23:41Speaker 01

  I think Apple is in a pretty good spot, honestly. Like, you know, when we've talked over just a year ago and over the past many months before that, obviously, that was a very different story and it was, you know, a bit of a nightmare situation for Apple. It does feel like they've stabilized now. It feels, I've been running the betas of the new OS, iOS and macOS and all the other products and they're stable. They're good. Siri is not going to blow anyone away who's been day to day living with OpenAI and Anthropic and Claude. But it's certainly going to be good enough for the masses. And I think that they're going to get some new experiences. Those are not as versed in AI that they'll

• 24:23Speaker 01

  like and more conversational Siri and whatnot. And so I think it's going to be, you know, a solid performer from that regard. We'll see what they have cooked, you know, cooked up for doing like more agentic workflows. I think that's stuff that will sort of roll out over time, more so than, you know, be a focal point right now. But because I think we're early there and I think Apple, again, has sort of timed that aspect of it well. You needed to have the conversational Siri, you needed to have Siri that could tell you the actual results of the Super Bowl and all the ridiculous stuff that Siri has not been able to do for years and years. It seems like they fixed that, obviously, thanks in large part to Google. And so that's a, that's a good position to be in. And again, with these new devices coming out, with the foldable coming out and a bunch of other

• 25:05Speaker 01

  stuff in the pipeline, it feels like that will be, they're like at the table stakes level, right? Like, you need to have this functional AI underpinning the operating system. The bigger question is what happens when, you know, the state of the art finally moves into the mainstream in terms of agentic use cases and some newer devices, you know, that potentially OpenAI and obviously Meta with the glasses and everything and Apple's working on them. Like, what that looks like will be a big test, I think. But for right now, it's table stakes. I think they're going to be okay.

• 25:37Speaker 00

  Now, you mentioned it and we should talk about it. There's new reporting, again, from Mark Gurman at Bloomberg about how much money Tim Cook is going to make. And I was sort of stunned by this. So now he's going to make $2 million as opposed to the $3 million he made as CEO in salary. Okay, so a little bit of a cut there. But then you look at the RSUs, and this is bananas, okay? This is from the Bloomberg story. In terms of restricted stock units for 2027, Ternus was given a target of $55 million on top of the salary and an unspecified bonus, while Cook will get $45 million. So $55 million for the CEO, $45 million for the executive chairman. That feels more like co-CEOs to me than it does, like, one person's the CEO and the other person's the executive chairman.

• 26:21Speaker 00

  I think the story had the previous executive chairman making like something under a million in RSUs. So what's going on here? This is wild.

• 26:28Speaker 01

  It is wild. It's, and another important caveat from what the reporting states, I believe Cook's, yeah, targets don't include as much, if any, incentives versus what Ternus does. So in other words, like, Ternus has major targets to hit in terms of the share price and different milestones that sort of unlock a lot of those. It's obviously standard sort of CEO, big company CEO thing. Cook, it seems like, doesn't have that. He's just sort of getting, gonna get these massive pay packages as long as he sticks around long enough to sort of, you know, vest all of them. And so that's super interesting. Again, that speaks to like how important his role will be going forward. I do think

• 27:13Speaker 01

  a lot of that is the geopolitical stuff that Apple obviously doesn't want to play up for clear reasons, but I do think that that matters. How that plays out will be fascinating if a certain president in the White House right now is okay with continuing to talk to Tim Cook, even though someone else is the CEO of Apple. Historically, he's wanted to talk to the CEOs of the companies, the actual decision makers. So does President Trump, you know, is he okay with continuing to talk to his boy, Tim Apple? Or does he need, does he need John Apple in there? Johnny Appleseed, I think, as some people have said, Johnny Appleseed in there to be able to have those conversations? It might be a hybrid, you know, maybe, maybe Cook sort of slowly ushers Ternus in to that role.

• 27:58Speaker 01

  But I do think that that's a big part of it and why that package looks like that. And obviously, part of it is just like, it does seem like Cook will actually be very active. He's getting a new office. He's going to be on campus. It's not like the typical sort of executive chair. You brought up the previous one, Arthur Levinson, who's been in place for a long, long time, since I think the Steve Jobs days. And his compensation was, you know, more normal looking package for that type of role. But he wasn't day to day, right? Like, he would do the board meetings, he'd lead the board meetings, chair the board meetings, and then, you know, was not the executive chair. And that's, again, it's a new role for Apple. And I think that the pay package speaks exactly to what they think it's going to be. Because Cook, I mean, Cook, for all, you know, whatever you think of

• 28:43Speaker 01

  him, like, he doesn't seem like the kind of guy that would like, demand he's only going to take the role if he gets like, you know, this massive comp package. Again, I just view it as indicative of what they think he's actually going to be doing, which is still a lot of work.

• 28:56Speaker 00

  Yeah, $45 million a year to retire, not bad. Clearly, like, not a retirement. So let's, I think we should breeze through some of the products, some more of these products. Let's just do it quickly, that we're going to see from Apple this week. There's the iPhone 18 and Pro Max. I'm just going to read from Bloomberg article. The Pro level iPhones will look roughly the same as prior models, other than a light blue and dark red color options. The big new features are mostly internal A20 Pro processors, NLC2 modems, better battery life, and improved vapor chambers to prevent overheating. They'll also come with camera upgrades, including a mechanical aperture for fine tuning light adjustments and depth control, at least on the Pro Max.

• 29:42Speaker 00

  I guess I'm curious, do you think the foldable phone is just gonna take all of the because the 17 did so well, I'm curious if the foldable phone will just kind of take all the attention away from the 18.

• 29:51Speaker 01

  I I'm curious how Apple thinks about that, right? Like, how are they gonna market these two next to one another, right? Like, obviously, if they're gonna call the the foldable the Ultra, they're implying that, you know, that's the best one money can buy. But it's interesting, and I'm torn about this because by all accounts, it's not gonna have the best camera system, right? The Pro will continue to have the best camera system, largely, it seems like, simply because of laws of physics, right? And the way that the foldable is gonna be more space constrained, um, you know, by the by its nature. And so it doesn't have the exact same optics, it doesn't maybe have some of these new features, um, you know, that the the camera system will be beginning with the Pro. And so I'm I'm torn about that, right? Like, I use primarily, I use, uh, you know, the phone first and foremost

• 30:33Speaker 01

  as a as a picture-taking device, especially as a as a father of young children. Like, I use that every single day, all the time. Um, and I want to have the best camera on me. And if I'm really gonna get the the foldable slash Ultra, like, I potentially won't have the best camera on me. Now, it'll still be a great camera system, obviously, and and it will be, I think, good, you know, good enough for everything. But it'll be in the back of my mind that it's not, it's not gonna be the best one, right? And that's a little weird from a marketing standpoint, if you're indeed going to call this the Ultra. And then maybe that's like some of the pushback against calling it the Ultra versus the Duo or, you know, the the Fold and or something more simple. Um, and again, does Apple try to really, you know, to play up the notion there? They have a new software feature coming

• 31:18Speaker 01

  in iOS where you can basically transfer your phone number from one device to the next super easily. So you could just say, like, I'm using this device now, and it will take your phone number and put it over. Um, that implies that, you know, they think that some people will, obviously, they historically have had two phones for different purposes, maybe work and and um, and pleasure or whatnot. But this also might suggest that they think some people will buy the Fold, the foldable and, uh, you know, a regular, quote unquote, regular iPhone, which will be interesting. I think that that's a that's a bridge too far for many people. But yeah, that's a lot of money.

• 31:52Speaker 00

  Three grand just for a phone. Um, just okay. So so I guess we've done this, we've talked about this for like 30 minutes, and I haven't asked you. So I'm gonna ask you straight up, which one are you gonna get if you're gonna upgrade?

• 32:01Speaker 01

  I'm gonna get the full, I'm gonna get the Ultra. Um, you know, I I will miss the color. It sounds like it won't be as colorful, right? And and uh, that new that new like burgundy red looks pretty nice. Uh, I have the or cosmic orange, as they're calling, as they called it right now, um, which has been great. And I'll I'll miss that. And I'll honestly, like, it it'll be a bit jarring, right? To just have a different form factor after having this for years and years, the same one. That's the upside of it. But um, but I'm ready, you know, to try something new. And I think it'll be a good experience. But if not, maybe I downgrade, uh, you know, to that that Pro model again. Um, but I think I'm gonna, I think I'm gonna like it. But yeah, it'll be, it'll be, um, take some getting used to. And, uh, it'll be an expensive proposition. And that's just, uh, that's Apple.

• 32:46Speaker 00

  Yes, that is Apple. All right. I I'll answer for myself. I'm gonna stick with the 17 for one more year, I think, and make a determination. Uh, usually I hold a model. Go ahead, go ahead.

• 32:57Speaker 01

  Is that you feeling like, you know, the sort of standard Apple playbook of like, look, they often don't nail the first generation of something. And so let's see if they can work out the kinks first. Are you like interested in the foldable and want to get it, but you're just worried about it or price or what what what's weighing on you there?

• 33:13Speaker 00

  Good question. For me, I typically hold the phone for two years. So I had the 15, uh, skipped 16, went 17, and I was even thinking of waiting till 18. But I'm so happy that I upgraded to the 17, because it's amazing. Um, and I think that when I upgrade, I will upgrade to the foldable phone. But so part of it is like natural every other year upgrade, and part of it is just like, yeah, I do kind of want to see how this works before, uh, picking one up myself.

• 33:40Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 33:41Speaker 00

  So we'll be able to ask you every every month, and we'll be able to get the feedback on how it's going.

• 33:45Speaker 01

  I'm sure I'll be writing about this, like, it'll be like a live diary, I feel like, of using this thing. Um, and and regardless of if Apple nails sort of the hardware form factor, it does feel like that they'll, again, having this thing in the hands of millions of consumers, there are obviously going to be tweaks that they need to make, certainly to the software side. And it feels like they'll learn quite a bit that they haven't been able to learn in sort of more closed testing internally. There's also, as as I'm sure you've seen all the reports, a lot of reports suggesting that they'll be pretty constrained, um, from a supply perspective going into it. And so will this thing launch at the exact same time, you know, as as the other devices? Uh, or will it be delayed a little bit? They've done that a few times in the past where it's been maybe a month off. It doesn't sound

• 34:28Speaker 01

  like that they're anticipating a huge delay, but it does sound like it might be pretty supply constrained beyond all of the current supply issues going on, but related to them too, of course.

• 34:37Speaker 00

  Yeah, that's an important call. Okay, briefly, there's also gonna be MacBooks with touch displays, again, from Bloomberg. After finally deciding around 2022 that it would enter the touchscreen laptop space, Apple is preparing the biggest overhaul to the MacBook Pro in half a decade and a redesigned model that sports a multi-touch screen OLED technology and the dynamic island element found on the iPhone. What do you think about this new MacBook? Sounds interesting to me.

• 35:01Speaker 01

  It is interesting. It's overdue, obviously. And how Apple also deals with the marketing here will be fascinating, because of course, when they've been asked about this ad nauseam over the past several years with lots of Windows, uh, you know, units on the market, uh, touchscreen displays, um, they've said, like, look, we we don't want a touchscreen Mac, we don't think you need one. We think we have the iPad, we've got the Mac, they're separate devices, never till the two meet. And then, of course, behind the scenes, they were working on a touchscreen MacBook. But, um, I think it'll be a marketing challenge after years and years. But Apple's done that historically, of course, said that they weren't doing something until they come out to do it. I think the bigger issue is how they do macOS to deal with this touch element, because that's been part of the talking point,

• 35:44Speaker 01

  right? Of like, why they weren't going to do, um, a touchscreen Mac in the past. It's like, it's just a different beast. There's different touch targets, like, um, iOS is, of course, and and iPadOS are built for touch. And macOS is, of course, built for a mouse and keyboard. And so how do you do that? There's ways to do it. They've been doing things with the iPad where they, you know, in big in the, um, the touch area when you switch from the the keyboard accessory into, uh, using touch. So there's ways that they're going to do it. But it's it's conceptually, it's gonna be, I think, a bit a bit of a challenge for people, um, because Apple just hasn't done it, um, historically. And again, how they market this thing will be fascinating. Is this the MacBook Ultra? Is this the ultimate, you know, tier of the of their, um, personal computer? And what does that look like then

• 36:29Speaker 01

  for the iPad? Does it cannibalize the iPad Pro market? Because all of a sudden, you can have the best of both worlds potentially.

• 36:36Speaker 00

  Yeah. Okay. And the last thing I want to talk about, well, actually, there's two more products I want to talk about. The last thing that's gonna come out, uh, this week is the first smart home hub with a screen. This is from Bloomberg. Apple's other major new product category due in the next few months is the Home Hub with a square. Oh, so it might not come this week, but it's a home hub with a square.

• 36:55Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 36:55Speaker 00

  Yeah, a square roughly seven inch screen, Siri AI and facial recognition abilities, which will serve up personalized content to the person looking at the device. It'll come with versions that could sit on a nightstand or be affixed to the wall, run widgets, clock faces on apps and apps, and allow for both FaceTime and smart home control. The product, the product will represent Apple's biggest push ever into the smart home market. That's interesting. You know, to me, that's just a sign of confidence that they have in their artificial intelligence that, like, they're willing to push, make this push again. Obviously, AI is going to be central to any device like this, and Apple must feel good about it.

• 37:34Speaker 01

  Well, and this is one of those devices that's apparently been on hold forever because AI wasn't ready, right? Siri was so bad that they had to postpone the release of this and maybe a few other devices, including, um, new versions of the HomePod and Apple TV. And so they've had these things just sitting on ice awkwardly, um, you know, by by multiple reports at this point. And so it it is, does speak to the point that they feel like the Siri's finally in good enough space to be able to launch this. It is interesting how they'll actually, yeah, dole out with the cadence of this event versus do they do an October event? It feels like it's set up nicely to have, you know, this new, this iPhone event, you've got the foldable, you've got the new Pro models, um, and then maybe one or one other thing there. But then you've got potentially a home event, right? Like,

• 38:18Speaker 01

  with this Home Hub, an Apple TV, HomePod, maybe they intermix them, you know, depending on availability and and components, I would imagine is a huge, huge part of that, right? The supply chain stuff. And so maybe they intermix them a little bit. But it's setting up nicely to be, yeah, that one-two punch sort of in September and October for all of these devices. But from the, you know, the high level, um, strategy of the of the HomePad, some people are calling it, um, device, I do think.

• 38:45Speaker 00

  I like that.

• 38:46Speaker 01

  Homepad, I think, FacePod, Homepad, there's all sorts of fun things that they could go there there with. But I think, um, you know, it's setting up the foundation of what they've long been trying to do, which is making, you know, basically, Apple products the foundation of the home. There's, you know, all the talk now that they're gonna roll out security cameras and and a bunch of other stuff. And so this will be the base sort of layer about it. And I think people will be interested in it, depending on what price points it is at, because I do think it's it's sort of an interesting, conceptually, I, uh, idea to have it as like the main hub of the home, uh, maybe iPad-like, but sort of running a new fangled version, uh, that they'll call HomeOS. And and and the most interesting thing about it, honestly, might be if you're, you know, a part of a family

• 39:31Speaker 01

  and the the rumored, um, features where it can basically have, uh, uh, visual detection to be able to switch between users, which is something people have wanted forever on an on an iPad, right? Just be able to switch between users if multiple people use it in the home. And they've historically not done that, even though they have it on the Mac. And, you know, they've had it other places, they haven't done that there. So this will be nice for that. Um, and it's, yeah, it's setting up a foundation, it feels like.

• 39:55Speaker 00

  Okay, so here's the roadmap for 2027 and beyond. So Apple is also working on, aside from the things that we've talked about today, AirPods with cameras, an in-home security sensor and system, smart glasses, a tabletop robot version of the Smart Hub, and potentially a pendant with a camera for artificial intelligence. This does not seem like the Apple of the last 10, 15 years. This seems like an Apple that is willing to take much more chances on products than it had previously. And now, maybe part of that is sparked by AI or pressured by AI. But it almost seems like a completely separate company from the one that Tim Cook has been running for a while.

• 40:38Speaker 00

  And we know it's not all John Ternus, or maybe it is, right? That Ternus, as part of the vision for CEO is, hey, look, I'm going to release many more products. And obviously, he comes from a hardware engineering background. But it just seems to me like a major strategic shift for Apple. And I'm scratching my head a little bit because I'm curious where this is coming from. So what do you think, MG? What is the deal with this new Apple? The one that ships many products and is willing to finally take some risks?

• 41:08Speaker 01

  Well, I think it's a few of the things that you mentioned, sort of all coming together at the right point. Like, you know, when you're talking about that, I'm again thinking through, and we've talked previously about when Microsoft transitioned from Ballmer to Nadella. And, you know, one of the first moves that Nadella did was introduce Office for iPad, right? And everyone's like, oh, my God, it's a whole new Microsoft. And obviously, that had been in the works for a while. They didn't just code that overnight and be ready to roll with it. And the same thing here. Of course, a lot of these products have been in the pipeline under Cook for a while. But again, it's interesting that it's Turnus who's been the guy who's likely overseeing them at the level just below Cook on hardware engineering. And so he's the guy, he got a lot of credit for the MacBook Neo, and he's going to get, I think, the rightful lot of credit for

• 41:52Speaker 01

  all of these new, you know, the touchscreen MacBook, as we talked about, the foldable iPhone. He's been overseeing a lot of that work. And so it's a sort of a perfect position, right? For him to be elevating in the time that a lot of this work is coming in. But the other stuff that's not being released, you know, necessarily this year that you're mentioning, you know, that stuff that's going to be really interesting to see how it plays out under his leadership. Because these will be, you know, the first, like, not just new devices, not a new version of them, even the touchscreen MacBook is a new version of the MacBook. We're talking about things that are totally new to Apple that they've not had before in terms of wearables, in terms of AI-first devices. And, you know, there's a lot of ways that those can go wrong,

• 42:35Speaker 01

  and there's a lot of ways that they go right. And so how Ternus actually deals with that? How does he coordinate software engineering, everything to come together to make these sort of the perfect polished gem that Apple likes to ship?

• 42:48Speaker 00

  Yeah, I'm going to say it, I like it. I mean, I think this is the direction that I've been hoping that Apple would take. And when I say hoping, I mean, like, when I'm thinking through the business strategy, to me, this seemed like the way to go, which is take more risks. We're no longer living in a slow-moving technology ecosystem. Things are faster, and you're going to need more devices. Otherwise, you're going to fall. And Apple, I think, felt that a little bit. And the company, for whatever, however it happened, there's been a spark, and it is rejuvenated.

• 43:15Speaker 01

  And I think part of it is like, they realize, like, look, they're looking at the AI revolution. I mean, they tried once to sort of come in there, fell on their face a little bit, but also took a step back, maybe, you know, not by choice, and was forced to take a step back and realize, like, we still have the hardware advantage that no one else has. And so how do we actually take advantage of that? Not only with iPhone, with Mac, but also new devices that we can do. We have not only the prowess to be able to do this and the expertise in-house, but we also have the retail channel that no one else has. And so how do we leverage that to be able to be truly successful here? And I think that's what we're going to see all of next year.

• 43:53Speaker 00

  Yeah, no, it's a very interesting moment for the company. There's been some interesting plays on words in this episode. You know, Johnny, Appleseed, I like that. The home, what was it, the home pad?

• 44:04Speaker 01

  Home pad, yeah, that's one of the rumors.

• 44:06Speaker 00

  And on threads, I saw this, and I think because I saw it, and I haven't been able to get it out of my head, I'm just going to, you might have seen it too, but I'm going to share it with everyone that, what was it? It was Steve did the job, he let Tim Cook, now it's John's turn. And it's, God, that's so cringy, but just stuck in my head.

• 44:25Speaker 01

  Yeah, nice work.

• 44:27Speaker 00

  Okay, so after the break, we're going to talk a little bit about the competitive dynamics between OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. So much news on that front that, of course, we can't sign off without having a discussion about that. So we will do that right after this. This episode is brought to you by App Point. Everyone's racing to roll out AI right now. Co-pilots, chatbots, agents doing real work. But here's the part nobody loves talking about. All that AI runs on your data. And most teams have no single way to see it, secure it, and prove it's under control. That's exactly what App Point does. For 25 years, they've been the trusted layer beneath the world's most demanding data, now extended across your entire AI estate.

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• 47:26Speaker 00

  Download the Quince app for app-exclusive offers or go to quince.com/bigtech. Get free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada and the UK, too. That's Q U I N C E dot com slash big tech. And we're back here on Big Technology Podcast with MG Siegler of Spyglass. You can find Spyglass at spyglass.org. Highly recommend you sign up for the newsletter. Lots of good stuff, lots of what we're talking about today. Stuff MG has covered on Spyglass. MG, let's talk a little bit about, or kind of pick up from our last discussion. So you may remember last time we spoke, we talked all about, like, the weird stuff going on within Google and the fact that,

• 48:09Speaker 00

  I read this story about Google basically giving up on the frontier race, and it seemed crazy at the time. But then, just a few days or hours later, we had finished recording. We haven't even published the episode yet. Demis Hassabis stepped down as the CEO of Google DeepMind. Now, of course, he is involved within the company. But it really does, you know, when you think about the competitive dynamic, and we'll start with Google, between Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic, it makes you wonder. And while you were covering this, you cited a semi-analysis post that I thought was very interesting, where it definitively said, and I'll just read it, "For all intents and purposes, we believe DeepMind is no longer a frontier lab."

• 48:50Speaker 00

  We said as much a few months ago, and we said this much a few months ago, "due to the large numbers of departures from their reinforcement learning teams and poor compute allocation. Google will continue meandering on and releasing models, but their odds of reaching state-of-the-art again have dropped to zero." Furthermore, the biggest beneficiary of today's news is neither, and this is talking about Demis, is neither Anthropic nor OpenAI. It's Google Cloud. Whereas Gemini and Google Cloud Platform used to desperately fight for compute allocation, it's now clear that Thomas Currie, and the head of Google Cloud Platform, has won. "We expect Google Cloud Platform revenue to grow meaningfully

• 49:32Speaker 00

  and to growth, to meaningfully accelerate as a result." That's a fascinating two paragraphs. So the argument is basically like, they're no longer on the frontier. They're all about, you know, the platformization of AI and selling compute to others, which they think is a big business, which is very kind of interesting direction to take. So what's your reaction here? And what do you think about the state of Google?

• 49:57Speaker 01

  I mean, I do think that that post is a little bit overzealous, perhaps. You know, I think that they didn't come out and refute it directly, but I think, you know, there's been lots of whispers of a bunch of stuff going on. You know, and I should note, obviously, I used to work at Google, but I have no inside information. I've been gone for a couple of years. And so I don't know what's actually going on there, but I do think just reading the tea leaves and sort of trying to triangulate based on all these different reports, it does seem like they just flopped when it came to 3.5 Pro Gemini 3.5 Pro, which was announced on stage at I O this year. And they got it, you know, they got flack, including from us, right?

• 50:39Speaker 01

  When it seemed like it wasn't going to be released then, and it wasn't. And they talked about, well, it's coming next month. And that would have been in June, I think, right? And it's now September, we still have no 3.5 Pro. They haven't come out and said that it's dead, but I think it's dead. I think that now they only talk about four Gemini four in training and that that's shaping up well. They've launched all these flash models, which by most accounts are good, but they're not frontier, right? They're not at the cutting edge of what Google, where Google was before with Gemini. And so, you know, they're competitive in different ways, but again, they're not what was promised. And in some ways, it hearkens back to what happened to Meadow with Lama, right? Like where they said, like this behemoth llama is coming and they're going to be at the frontier.

• 51:22Speaker 01

  And then obviously, next thing we knew, they're resetting the entire company to basically, you know, acquihire all these people and get a new team in place and go back behind the scenes and catch up again. And so I don't think that we're going to see that level from Google of reset. But clearly a reset happened, you know, hours after we sort of spoke about it. And it felt like it was in the, in the brewing. You could tell that something was happening behind the scenes with all of the various reports about them falling behind. And will they be able to get back to the frontier? I mean, it seems pretty clear again, from the reporting that, that from Demis on down, they were pretty, they were getting pretty interested in world models. They were seeing like, maybe the L L M race is sort of maybe not winding down, but we

• 52:07Speaker 01

  want to go in a different direction to make sure that we're, you know, in the right direction of where the state of the art is heading. And maybe they just made a wrong call there. Maybe they were too early. We'll see about that. But can they get back to that actual frontier? It's an interesting time, right? It feels like that there, everyone's like rate varying degrees of racing, pausing, you know, rolling out things, holding back on others. And it's a very weird moment in time for this quote unquote race.

• 52:34Speaker 00

  Yeah, and I'm absolutely not going to count Google out. But if there was an intentional decision to basically say, you know, we have compute, we can use it to build new models, or we can use it to, you know, basically make bank right now with Google Cloud Platform, and we're going to do the latter. That's a very interesting strategic decision.

• 52:52Speaker 01

  And it also feels like that's a bit how Microsoft has played it, right? Like they, they obviously famously had the OpenAI deal in place. They sort of renegotiated that. And that, you know, all the talk was that that would unlock them to go after the frontier. There is talk that they are, you know, they've been doing that with Mustafa Suleiman, trying to go for it. But we haven't seen them release anything yet on the frontier. They've released some smaller models and all of Satya Nadella's talking points now seem to be about just being this, you know, quote unquote, Switzerland of, you know, the clouds of AI for AI. And they're happy to use anything, be it open models from China, be it any of the competitive, you know, the frontier models, products. They don't, they don't necessarily care what you use as long as you're using it on Azure. Their cloud offering.

• 53:35Speaker 01

  And so Google, in some ways, probably has to think about that, right? In relation to all of this, too. It's like, that's Microsoft strategy. Amazon is a sort of similar strategy. They've long had it where, again, they want to be the Switzerland. They want to be the platform for the, for their cloud, for AWS. And, you know, they're, they're working on their own models, but not necessarily at the frontier again. And so is that where Google is moving?

• 53:56Speaker 00

  Yeah, and it's also, it's different for Google because they have TPUs. And I guess Amazon, to a degree, has trainium, but the TPUs have shown that they can be used to build real state of the art models. And if you look at Google, so Google's market cap, as we're speaking today, you know, is $4 trillion and Nvidia's market cap is $5.5 trillion. Now, I'm not saying Google's going to equal Nvidia. But if you make this strategic pivot, and Dave Kana on the show made this suggestion a couple of weeks ago, if you make this strategic pivot and you say, basically, AI models will commoditize to a degree or will always need compute to work. And so what we're going to do is be, you know, the part of the value layer, we get, we get a effectively a tax whenever someone uses AI, whether that's through the cloud or through our chips.

• 54:40Speaker 00

  You know, maybe you're looking at a company that, that, you know, its potential, I mean, let's say Anthropic is going to be a $2 trillion IPO. Well, if you're going after the $2 trillion opportunity or the $5 trillion, maybe you want the five. I know that's overly simplistic, but it is an idea. And maybe that's what Google's doing.

• 54:57Speaker 01

  Yeah, I, you know, we've long talked about it. Google's in a unique position versus everyone else because of the basic, you know, things that they have in-house to be able to do. And you talk about TPUs. And again, Amazon is some of it, but Google was able to sort of been, has been operating at a different level from a technical standpoint on some of this stuff, simply because like they have the search revenues that's fueling it and the profits, most importantly. Amazon, of course, is also an awesome business, but doesn't quite have the level of profits that, that Google does, given, you know, their underlying business. And it was AWS that became sort of their giant profit center, right? And now if Google has search, which is obviously, you know, sort of the, the continued moneymaker,

• 55:41Speaker 01

  but not as, as vital as it, as it was in the yesteryear. And now they have cloud up and coming, and they're sort of layering on all of these, these layers to become like the biggest company in the world, you know, potentially, if they have Nvidia like opportunity in TPUs or in chips in general, like what's to stop them from doing that? I mean, just themselves, big company problems, right? Bureaucracy stuff. And so, you know, would I count them out? Of course not. And I think that like, like so many things, all these companies sort of ebb and flow, right? They, they go, they're hot and then they fall back. And it seems like, are they finished? Are they cooked? Like, and then they come roaring back and then they're cooked again. And so I feel like we're in a little bit of a, of a down cycle as much as you could be as a $4 trillion public company.

• 56:26Speaker 01

  But it feels like they'll be back at some point soon and they'll have sort of all these, these narratives that are compelling again.

• 56:33Speaker 00

  And speaking of this like cycle of they're the leader, are they cooked? They're back to the leader again. It seems like OpenAI has just gone through one of these where they were in code red. You know, speaking of where they were versus Google, like, what was it? Nine months ago, they were in code red and trying to fend off Google, then falling behind Anthropic. Now they've released GPT six, Astra, Jensen Huang from Nvidia has called it AGI, although folks, Jensen has said that we've reached AGI like months ago and nobody paid attention. But anyway, I'm not here to be the arbiter of that. But what do you think this latest model release does for OpenAI and its competition with Anthropic in particular? And, and on that note, why, everybody's making these like 3D models and saying it's AGI, which is interesting.

• 57:17Speaker 00

  So what's your, what's your general read on why that's happening?

• 57:21Speaker 01

  Uh, I wrote about this a little bit at the end of last week. My general read on AGI of Greg Brockman proclaiming it with Astra is that it's full on marketing now. Like it's before we've joked that it's marketing, you know, but now it's like full on marketing. They're just, they're just deciding that they're going to declare it, you know, willy nilly, Jensen, willy nilly. It's like, what does it mean? It never really meant, it meant different things to everyone always. Like we probably talked about that two years ago and then, and now it's just full on in there, especially because OpenAI, as noted, no longer has the AGI clause with Microsoft. So they can, they can sort of do whatever they want now and just declare AGI here, here and there. And it doesn't, doesn't impact anything beyond public perception. But there's a risk in that too, right?

• 58:02Speaker 01

  Like people, I think, have been, spent the past years sort of being hyped up about AGI is coming and, and it's going to change everything. And instead, like AGI is here apparently, and nothing, all that much has changed beyond, yeah, 3D models. And, and you know, I don't know, I still can't get grandma home from the airport. So, so is, how good is AGI?

• 58:22Speaker 00

  There was some cool stuff where this guy was building like his own simulated world where, you know, the agents, a bunch of, with a bunch of agents inside of it, and they started talking to each other and they started building their own simulations. So I think there is some cool stuff, but the whole situation is, is a little bizarre. And I do wonder, so I kind of foreshadowed this at the very beginning of the episode. I do wonder if a lot of what we're seeing now is just going to be the claims, the hype on the claims will just escalate as the IPO window opens. And we know that Anthropic is sort of on the way there. And I'm curious if this big push from, you know, OpenAI has something to do with that, although, I mean, the benchmarks look good, but. I do wonder, what do you think?

• 59:07Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, a huge part of an IPO is obviously the marketing and the story behind it. Right. And so as you're noting, like, all these companies continue to battle. It does feel like OpenAI has had a resurgence after being downtrodden and sort of, you know, falling behind Anthropic because, you know, they obviously were more consumer focused. Well, Anthropic recognized the opportunity with with coding and and sort of have basically used that to slingshot ahead of OpenAI. And now all of a sudden, they're going to go public before them and and everything's looking good. I it's very interesting what Anthropic will do leading up to that IPO. Presumably, we're going to get the, you know, the S one any day now. It could be this week, could be next week. And and, you know, the offering might be next month.

• 59:52Speaker 01

  And, you know, what do they do to that marketing and product end ahead of that? Do they what do they do to keep momentum? Because it does feel like, again, OpenAI has has taken back some of it with with this Astro push. But obviously Anthropic just released, you know, a new version of Mythos and Fable right ahead of OpenAI doing that. And the backdrop, of course, behind all of this now is everything going on with security and these breaches that are sort of being disclosed left and right. And these companies continuing, again, to sort of talk about the notion of the future is here and AGI is here. But at the same time, you know, writing blog posts and talking endlessly about like all the security implications of it.

• 1:00:33Speaker 01

  Very strange dichotomy, certainly not helping the the messaging around this as, you know, it's like, what is the public to believe here? Is this the absolute future of everything and the future is going to be great? Or is the future going to be terrifying? And all of these guys, like, they really need to sort of figure that, figure out what the what the appropriate talking points are going to be. And you would think that they do that before going public, but apparently not.

• 1:00:58Speaker 00

  No, clearly not. And I do think that they're they're both both Anthropic and OpenAI are going to need some, like, big reveal before they do their IPO, just like, you know, a real one more thing moment. There's some chatter on Twitter that maybe Anthropic will, you know, solve a Millennium Prize problem and, you know, sort of push that out right before the IPO or, you know, somebody's going to come up with some scientific breakthrough. I don't know. It's as we get close to the public market, it is getting tougher to be able to discern what you should trust and what you shouldn't trust.

• 1:01:32Speaker 01

  I want to know who is going to choose AGI as their stock ticker symbol and who gets stuck with RSI.

• 1:01:38Speaker 00

  Oh.

• 1:01:40Speaker 01

  That'll be that'll be the battle.

• 1:01:43Speaker 00

  Well, Anthropic has Anthropic has the the first try at this. What do you think their symbol is going to be? A it could be A N T. OpenAI has to be, OpenAI will be will be AGI, I'm pretty sure.

• 1:01:55Speaker 01

  Yeah, they'll want it at least. Maybe someone, some, some smaller company can take it and make the make OpenAI pay, you know, millions of dollars to get access to it, like a jersey on a sports team or something.

• 1:02:08Speaker 00

  Oh, my God, MG, the silly season is just beginning, isn't it?

• 1:02:12Speaker 01

  Yep, yep.

• 1:02:14Speaker 00

  All right, folks, check out spyglass.org. It's always great to have MG with us to kick off the month. MG, I'm sure that we're gonna, we say this every week, every time and every month, every time we talk, but I'm sure that, like, by the way, we're recording on Monday, I'm sure none of this will hold for Wednesday. And the month ahead is going to be even more insane than this past one.

• 1:02:32Speaker 01

  There's going to be some breaking, like, the iPhone Ultra will be left in a bar or something, and someone will have it all of a sudden, and we'll know everything about it before the event.

• 1:02:40Speaker 00

  Yep, definitely. All right, MG, thanks again. Great talking to you as always.

• 1:02:44Speaker 01

  Thanks, Alex. Talk soon.

• 1:02:46Speaker 00

  All right, thanks, everybody, for listening and watching, and we'll see you next time on Big Technology Podcast.

• 1:03:06Speaker 02

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