China, AI Immigration, Rare Earths & Chips, Tariffs, Market Check | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they discuss the pace of AI and data walls, China’s startups, immigration and talent acquisition, rare earths, chips, China trade deal, corporate governance, Delaware incorporation rights, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2! Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:24) Pace of AI + Data Walls (11:43) China's 1000 Startup Strategy (26:18) Talent Acquisition and Immigration Policies (36:24) Rare Earths, Chips / China Trade Deal (53:46) Corporate Governance and Delaware Dilemna Show Notes: Reddit v. Anthropic https://redditinc.com/hubfs/Reddit%20Inc/Content/PDFs/Docket%20Stamped%20Complaint.pdf China’s “Thousand Startups Bloom” https://bg2pod.notion.site/china-s-thousand-startups-bloom-strategy Produced by Benny Beausoleil Music by Yung Spielberg Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com http://www.bg2pod.com Follow: Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Brad Gerstner?

  And if you and I want to win championships and build a championship basketball team, we should not care where in the world the basketball player comes from. We just need to get the best players on our team to win the championship. And we ought to take the same approach to AI and technology.

• 0:27Brad Gerstner?

  Hey, Bill. Great to see you. Brad, how you doing, man? I'm doing great. I'm doing great. You know, I'm heading back to Boston this weekend for my 25th HBS reunion. Twenty five. I it's it's crazy. I mean, you're you're way older than me, but you know, I I I can't believe it's 25 years and and I'm doing this talk on what's happening in AI, you know, these days. And there's a lot of questions about and comparisons. Because remember, we were there during the 99, 2000 kind of boom and and bust. And so a lot of my classmates are wondering whether or not AI is kind of like that again. And so I was going back and pulling together these slides. And I have to say, a few things just

• 1:11Brad Gerstner?

  shocked me, frankly, like I forgot how much has changed. One was I was doing, I was looking, I'm doing some analysis on Amazon, you know, I was day trading Amazon out of the back of the classroom back then. And you were out here working on the IPO. So I know you were paying attention to what the share price was in 98, 99, and 2000. And a couple of interesting points. Right? Amazon, if you recall, Bill, and I know you do, it peaked at 243 bucks a share in 1998. But at the start of 2000, it's at 150 bucks a share. Okay. And Henry Blodgett famously makes the call, he calls $400 a share.

• 1:53Brad Gerstner?

  And he literally kind of top ticks it from the year 2000. And the thing plummets and goes down to about 26 bucks a share. Right? He gets ridiculed and all this stuff, but I wanted to.

• 2:04Bill Gurley?

  It went, it went public at seventeen and broke issue.

• 2:08Brad Gerstner?

  Yes. Wow. Wow.

• 2:09Bill Gurley?

  So it traded under, under issue for about two months.

• 2:12Brad Gerstner?

  Right. And I'm sure you didn't get any calls from the company about what the F was going on. But here's the crazy thing, right? Remember, he gets ridiculed for making that call. So I wanted to know, and I went and asked, asked our chat GPT friend to help me with some split adjusted math on this. So split adjusted from the high in two thousand, which was this hundred and fifty, that's equivalent to about forty seven cents split adjusted today. So it's up about four hundred and forty X from where it was in two thousand. And on a split adjusted basis from the low in two thousand, it's up about eighteen hundred X. Right? I mean, those are shocking numbers.

• 2:56Brad Gerstner?

  And, you know, so that was one of the things that dawned. So I said, well, what's happened to the NASDAQ? Since we graduated, well, from the peak in two thousand, the NASDAQ is still up five X. And from the trough, trough in two thousand, it's up ten X. And so I said, you know, what, what's the punchline? The punchline is, you know, we were a bunch of dreamy eyed, big, you know, big thinkers. We thought we knew everything about the internet. We, we, we knew it was going to change the world forever. And it turns out we overestimated what it was going to do in the short term, right? Over the next to two to three years, adoption was slower. We had the terrorist attacks in two thousand and one. We had an economic recession.

• 3:37Brad Gerstner?

  So things definitely grew slower, but the biggest problem was there just weren't that many people connected to a high speed internet. So all the things we dreamed of occurring were just inefficient to happen at that time. But what's probably even more surprising, Bill, is how dramatically we underestimated the long term. Over the next twenty to twenty five years, it blew away all of our estimates and forecasts in terms of how big these companies would be. And so now we sit here at, you know, kind of the dawn of the age of AI. And I think people are asking a lot of these same questions, but, you know, that was probably the, the, the biggest punchline on my twenty five year reflection.

• 4:15Bill Gurley?

  All right. Well, if they listen to the podcast, we, they're not, they're gonna miss your talk, maybe.

• 4:24Brad Gerstner?

  Maybe, you know, talking about this pace of AI, you and I were sending some things back and forth, just about some strategic shifts going on in the world.

• 4:33Bill Gurley?

  Yeah.

• 4:33Brad Gerstner?

  Talk us through that.

• 4:35Bill Gurley?

  Well, obviously, I mean, the pace continues like crazy every, every time, you know, every, between just the podcast episodes we do, which are about two to three weeks, there's new news always and constantly. And it's hard to keep, it's hard to keep up with it. But I do try and pay attention to the stuff that spikes in my brain as being strategic and something you should really pay attention to. And one thing that, that I've seen in the past week, so this is very recent, is what I might call data walls. And so everyone's recognizing the value of AI.

• 5:14Bill Gurley?

  Everybody wants to have AI work against their data against, you know, and, and everybody wants to wow the consumer or the customer of their product. And so all of a sudden, though, we're seeing, you know, things pop up where people are trying to wall off data. And, you know, one example would be Reddit just sued Anthropic this morning despite having a deal. So it'd be interesting to unpack what, what's in there. I think there's a, a tiff between Windsurf and Anthropic, where Anthropic cut off, cut them off to all their models, you know, Windsurf was bought by OpenAI. Not that surprising, but just seeing these walls pop up.

• 5:58Bill Gurley?

  I think a more interesting one in the enterprise case is Salesforce changed their terms of service and in a way that includes not only the CRM data, but Slack data, which, you know, is a company they bought. And they're putting an MCP connector on top of it, which allows AI to query it. But they're telling, they're saying that you can't train on the data that's in there.

• 6:26Brad Gerstner?

  Hold on a second. So. Ultimeter Slack data, I can't train on my own data?

• 6:33Bill Gurley?

  That's what, that's what the change in the terms of service say. You can query in the MCP. Yeah, I, I think it's, I, you know, I, I think maybe we'll start to talk about enterprise applications as either being open data or closed data. And people are going to need to declare that. But my guess is that if you're a competitor to Salesforce, you're immediately going to declare yourself open data and try and steal as many customers as possible. I can't fathom in my own brain, how upset I would be if I were paying seven, eight figure license to Salesforce and they told me I couldn't train on my own, on my own data, which is basically everything about my customers and everything

• 7:19Bill Gurley?

  that I would want to analyze. Now, I'm sure they're going to train on it and give you their AI agentic view of it. Which is why they're doing this, but, but battle lines are being drawn, you know, going back to the old song.

• 7:32Brad Gerstner?

  You know, and one of the things you didn't mention, Bill, I just saw Kevin, uh, while our friend tweeted from OpenAI, that deep research is now searching across GitHub, Google Docs, Gmail, Outlook, HubSpot, Dropbox. Now, I think a, a lot of that's using MCP, but you know, I do agree with you that this all seems to be happening faster rather than, than slower. You know, it reminds me, you and I back in the day, sitting in a Zillow board meeting and talking about people building dependencies on Google. And you were very much, uh, in, in, uh, aligned with you, you can't build a brand in the underbelly of Google because over time, they will have to take that territory back, right? And I remember TripAdvisor peaked at

• 8:16Brad Gerstner?

  $20 billion in value, building a search engine, a recommendation engine in the underbelly of Google. And then when Google decided it was time to do recommendations on its own, TripAdvisor's value went from 20 billion to 1 billion. And, you know, but that happened over a period of many, many years, Bill. And what I see happening here is kind of in, in, in part because AI is going so much faster than the internet did, right? I did, I saw some analysis from my team this week, we'll post, that OpenAI reached, you know, 400 billion annual searches, eight years faster than Google.

• 8:54Brad Gerstner?

  Right? So they're doing over a billion searches a day now.

• 8:57Bill Gurley?

  Yeah.

• 8:58Brad Gerstner?

  Right? So all of this is happening in a hyperspeed. And so the strategic plays by all of these companies to vertically integrate, to shut down, you know, access to data, because they all know that they need to monetize by kind of offering that full stack. And so, you know, that to me is, is something for these companies. When you look at Windsurf, they're going to have to build their own models. When you look at Cursor, they're building their own models. Right? The dependencies on, on, you know, kind of all of these different open models, I think is, you know, is changing very rapidly.

• 9:31Bill Gurley?

  Well, I'm sure Anthropic, you know, woke up on the Windsurf announcement and said, oh, wait, you know, OpenAI is going into verticals like, and, and we're good at coding. So how do we think about this? And yeah, I mean, it's a reordering. I think people really need to pay attention to this data thing. If you look at where OpenAI wants to go on the consumer side, you know, access to your contacts, your, your calendar, your mail, like all that's going to matter. And you're going to want your personal assistant to be able to do that. And whoever owns those systems, whether or not they try to block access to it or not will be interesting. You know, Google has an advantage in that they own, you know, they own their, their

• 10:16Bill Gurley?

  own phone platform and they own their own Gmail platform and they own their own alternative to the Office stack. And so, you know, they should be able to make that a competitive advantage. But, you know, whether or not they'll be willing to put up a wall and say, OpenAI can't scrub this, it'll, it'll all be very interesting. It's something that's super important to watch.

• 10:37Brad Gerstner?

  I mean, I, listen, I think it would, it would be a bad development. Right? Uh, you know, I think you and I both agree that MCP is a good development and allowing more open access. At the end of the day, it should be my data. It's my Gmail, right, that I'm paying for. It's, it's, it's, it's my Google Docs that I'm creating and I'm paying for. And so if you tell me that I'm not going to be able to use my AI of choice, right? Accessing this information to make my life better to answer questions. You know, that will lead to a lot of disruption. So but that is the question, right? Because here we have deep research announcing today that they're going to access all those things using MCP on my behalf, which I'm excited about, right? Because I am using

• 11:18Brad Gerstner?

  all of those Google services. But I do like the idea of using chat GPT that has a lot of buildup memory about me to access those services. So I think you and I will certainly be loud and proud on the side of keeping this all open. But we definitely see some early warning signs here of people closing down the ecosystem, you know, in order to try to protect some of those some of those advantages. Another topic, Bill, you know, we've talked a lot about China. And one of the interesting parts of our dialogue, from my perspective, over the course of the last few months, is just how well China is doing in robots, in autos, in batteries, in precision manufacturing, deep seat coming out of out of nowhere Huawei building, you know, chips that

• 12:03Brad Gerstner?

  are catching up very quickly. But you sent me this piece of research this week, and it's really enlightening because, you know, it talks about let a thousand flowers bloom, like how they've in fact seeded these industries. And and there's probably some stuff we could learn here. So unpack it for me, Bill. Why has this been so successful?

• 12:22Bill Gurley?

  Yeah. And for the record, I had chat GPT do the the analysis. It was version 4.5, the $200 a month version. It's an amazing piece of research. I guess it could have some errors in it, but I would we're going to post it so everybody can see it. But yes, I think it's imperative that we understand exactly why China is so competitive in so many industries and and what led them to be successful. And what I uncovered, and I had heard heard this from a few other people in the past, but what I really uncovered the detail on is that in these industries where they want to succeed, they actually make sure that there are 500 competitors or 1000 competitors.

• 13:02Bill Gurley?

  And then they let the market whittle down to what the best one is. So rather than I think we have a perception that communist or authoritarian governments have a single state sponsored company that's not very competitive. That's not what they're doing. They're doing something very different. They're they're letting entrepreneurism and kind of a Darwinian competition and survival of the fittest, you know, create these the five companies that survive all of that as winners.

• 13:33Bill Gurley?

  We all know because we believe in capitalism that that has, you know, that kind of system will lead to the very best shining at the end of the day.

• 13:42Brad Gerstner?

  Well, it's it's interesting, Bill, because, you know, you and I grew up kind of with with this model in, you know, Soviet Russia where they picked a state actor. And part of the reason we won the Cold War is they bankrupted themselves. All those state actors were terrible. They were inefficient. They were full of grift. They couldn't compete. Their products weren't any good. But we see the exact opposite out of China. We see products that are globally competitive, you know, and many that are in in these different industries better than the US. So there has to be something systematic and structurally different that they're doing, even though we refer to them as both, both of them as communist system.

• 14:16Bill Gurley?

  Correct. And and I, you know, I've I've studied these types of systems my whole life. And, you know, I've mentioned before that I'm on the board of the Santa Fe Institute. And this kind of Darwinian competition is exactly the kind of thing that I would. If you told me they were doing this before they did it, I'd say, well, that that might actually work. Right? Like, that's, this is sensible to me that this works. One, one thing that came out of it, in addition to just help, helping to identify winners, you know, there's a couple of other benefits you get from this. One, you're exposed to way more optionality because 500 startups will try a bunch of different approaches. And one, one thing I've uncovered in the past few weeks is Chinese LiDAR is solid state

• 14:59Bill Gurley?

  and designed very differently than the LiDAR that Waymo is using. And it's actually in China right now is, I think, being priced at like $130 a car, this solid state MEMS LiDAR, whereas the Waymo LiDAR is like $5,000 a car. So you end up in completely different places because of this type of competition. And you have this many people trying different things. And then the other big thing that happens is your supply chain develops in a lot more robust way. Because if I'm a supplier, You know, to, you know, a part that's important to a solar panel or to an EV,

• 15:38Bill Gurley?

  I now have, you know, 50 or 100 competitors. So you end up, and that births more and more competitors in, in for that part as well. And so you end up with a much more robust supply chain, more players at each, each step along the way. And I, you know, I think the data suggests, and this, this piece of research would suggest that's why they've been so successful in EVs, where there were over 500 EV startups, 500 in the US. What has there been? Four legitimate ones?

• 16:12Brad Gerstner?

  A handful. So here's my question. Right in Silicon Valley, we have this dynamic ecosystem of risk capital. We're probably, I don't know, fourth, fifth generation of risk capital and risk takers. They find each other. There's not a lot of government interaction or coordination with regard to that. You know, it, it, it just kind of happens. What are we saying? Like, like, how is, is this ecosystem developed? There's definitely venture capital in China, but it seems to me as a fraction of the venture capital that, that exists in the, in the US, or certainly the tightness of the ecosystem over the course of the last four or five years has been reduced dramatically because a lot of the US players, right, backed off from China. So is it the, the different states and provinces

• 16:56Brad Gerstner?

  that are seeding or subsidizing to get these 500 startups rolling? Like, how are they getting going?

• 17:00Bill Gurley?

  Yeah. Yeah. So, so the government involvement, you know, is at a provincial level. And that's part of why there's such a, a high number, like a high number of startups in the area. I mean, it, it's interesting, if you take this as a conclusion, oh, this, this worked, this was very successful for them. And then you turn and say, what should, you know, the West do? I think it's hard because, you know, when, when our governments tried to get involved in startups, it's never been about helping to ensure there were a thousand of them. It's usually, you know, you create some program. The one that's, I stuck in my brain was solar, because I actually had a company in the space, you know, where there were probably 10, you know,

• 17:44Bill Gurley?

  solar startups that had raised over $500 million. And then three of them were able to.

• 17:51Bill Gurley?

  You know, court the players in DC long enough to to get money. Solindra being the the one that people remember the most because they eventually went bankrupt. But but that doesn't feel like this thing, right? That that feels more like regulatory capture and who can win, you know, at the highest level. This and and it's more at the end of the game. This is at the beginning of the game. So I don't know. I don't know if there's a US equivalent of this. I'll need to think about that. I think my first step was just to to take a fresh look at why they've been successful. And when I saw that the approach was so, you know, novel from what I had imagined it was, it was very eye opening.

• 18:33Brad Gerstner?

  Well, one of the things you pointed out to me was that they deprioritize market caps, or I might even say over the last five years, that they've kind of attacked the largest market cap companies in favor perhaps of diversifying competition. And so, you know, it seems like the one thing I think we can definitively say, there's a hell of a lot more national coordination about what industries are important, like their industrial policy identifies an industry than what it seems like they do from the, you know, kind of central governing authority is they encourage all of the the provinces to seed these companies within, you know, their their different areas, allow that competition to occur.

• 19:18Brad Gerstner?

  So I guess the question is, you know, when you look at the US where, you know, it's much more just unfettered competition, is this just like, is the point here, just be aware of this? Or are you suggesting that there are things that the US needs to do? I mean, it seems in some ways like the coordinated industrial policy that's now coming out of Washington, the stuff that the president is talking about where we have to re-onshore critical national industries, precision manufacturing, some medical supplies, some chips, some aluminum and steel, that would seem to me to be fairly aligned with the industrial policy that you're discussing here.

• 19:56Bill Gurley?

  Well, there's, there's so much like you ask, you just ask a question that might take four hours to answer, but let me, let me just try and be. As terse as possible in responding to it. So I had ChatGPT do two more pieces of research. The first one I, this would be part two. Part two is worth mentioning. So I think most people believe that and talk about China subsidization. So, once winners are identified, there are situations where the government has helped subsidize. BYD was in a situation where I think they were given $2 billion. So, that second part walks through cases of that. I don't

• 20:36Bill Gurley?

  want to shy away from that part because that is the criticism that a lot of people bring to the table. And so, this will give a dump of that. But the third thing, what you hinted at, which I think is very important to think about, and before I get to any type of response, I want to make sure I fully understand what's happening. And there does seem to be in China, and I, and part three of this research walks through this, a deprioritization of market cap of successful companies. And this, this is something that I think should be important for policymakers to understand, but also investors, if you're buying stocks of Chinese companies, you know,

• 21:16Bill Gurley?

  hoping that they will, you know, like, like the Mag 7 turn into these $3 trillion entities, the Chinese government may not consider that part of the objective function of what a win is. And in the past three weeks, we saw BYD take prices down 30%. That may have had encouragement from the government. I don't have proof of that. But it looks, it looks synonymous with, with the kinds of things that matter to them. And so if your, if your government cared mostly about high employment, and cared mostly about the durability of the competitiveness of your companies globally.

• 21:57Bill Gurley?

  You might take, you know, what I would call the Amazon approach and say, you know, your margin is my opportunity. I'm going to be the low-cost producer and that's going to make my competitive position relative to other countries around the world the best it can be. And if I don't have a government that's dependent upon whether or not those market caps are high or not, then I might encourage price competition, you know, in an industry that we're already winning at.

• 22:26Brad Gerstner?

  Well, and that's consistent. Like, if you look at, as winners begin to emerge, right, China definitely plays a heavier hand, right? You have golden shares and veto rights by the government.

• 22:40Bill Gurley?

  Correct.

• 22:41Brad Gerstner?

  You have preferential procurement by the government. You have regulatory approvals that are required. And, you know, in this post-Diddy era where they, you know, went public, I mean, we've seen the government, literally, I mean, they disappeared Jack Ma with respect to Alibaba. They've stepped in, right?

• 22:56Bill Gurley?

  Yep.

• 22:57Brad Gerstner?

  We have ByteDance, it still is not, is not public. So clearly, they exert way more control. Once the winners emerge, we know that they're doing this at some level with Huawei as well.

• 23:09Bill Gurley?

  And, and, and all those topics that you just mentioned, they're all covered in these three pieces. So if people have more interest, I would encourage them to read it. But I think in the US, we have a mindset that, oh, having, you know, $3 trillion winners is a, is a positive sign. And I think it's important to understand that that may not be the attitude over there. And that can, that can lead to different decision-making.

• 23:38Brad Gerstner?

  You're, you're making me think about some of the relative valuation comparisons between Chinese internet companies and US companies. If you really think that there's going to be an obstacle to allowing them to grow bigger, that's, that's something US investors have to take into account. Well, I think the number one thing for me, Bill, the so what on all of this, is that we're, we're in this competition with China. And I think we would be very naive to think that they're going to do anything but be extraordinarily competitive. You and I have argued they're on the frontier of AI already. They're gaining ground quickly on chips and right on our heels. And so I appreciated unpacking a little bit the why.

• 24:19Brad Gerstner?

  Like, why have they been successful there? So that was my takeaway. Bill, are there any other takeaways from the research that you have?

• 24:27Bill Gurley?

  Well, there are two. One, you know, I think a lot of people kind of quip quickly that, oh, China is successful because of IP theft. Or, you know, I think if you if you narrow it down to one, you know, derogatory action or comment, you're ignoring this system that, and that's why I would encourage people to read that part one at least, and just see the breadth of the work that went into place because you could make a bad policy decision because you think, oh, well, if we just protect IP, then this won't keep happening. But there's more happening than that, you know?

• 25:08Bill Gurley?

  And so that'd be part one. And then second, on the AI front, one thing we talked about last time is, you know, all of a sudden you open your eyes and there's four deep-pocketed open source players in China. And if you think about, you know, promoting competitiveness as part of what's going to lead to global success, I wouldn't be shocked to learn or find out that the government favored, you know, an approach like that and having four open source competitors for all the reasons that the systems they put in place for EVs and solar panels. To me, those are very similar.

• 25:47Brad Gerstner?

  Right, right. So it just makes it cheaper and easier for the ecosystems to benefit from one another, even though the economics and the margins on those products may be lower.

• 25:56Bill Gurley?

  Yes. And one other thing that I should have mentioned, that might be an objective function of CCP is just the affordability to their to their entire citizenry. So, you know, BYD selling a car for 10 grand is better for the consumer in China, as might be, you know, for open source AI models.

• 26:17Brad Gerstner?

  Hmm, interesting. Well, staying on the theme of China, Bill, you and I've talked a ton over the past two years about the need to stop illegal immigration, but to dramatically ramp up recruiting and retaining the best and the brightest to the United States. Totally. You know, we've done former pods on this, and we've talked about the age of AI is all about talent. And I remember how excited we were after we saw the president on the All In Pod, talking about how it's going to become way easier to get an H1B visa, literally like stapling a green card. It's very exciting. To do these diplomas.

• 26:54Speaker 02

  But what I want to do, and what I will do, is you graduate from a college, I think you should get automatically as part of your diploma, a green card to be able to stay in this country. And that includes junior colleges, too. Anybody graduates from a college, you go in there for two years or four years, if you graduate or you get a doctorate degree from a college, you should be able to stay in this country. And you know more stories than I do. But I know of stories where people graduated from a top college or from a college, and they desperately wanted to stay here, they had a plan for a company, a concept, and they can't. They go back to India, they go back to China, they do the same basic company in those places, and they become multi-billionaires employing thousands and

• 27:36Speaker 02

  thousands of people, and it could have been done here. And a bigger example is, you need a pool of people to work for your companies. You have great companies, and they have to be smart people. Not everybody can be less than smart. You need brilliant people. And we force the brilliant people, the people that graduate from college, the people that are number one in their class from the best colleges, you have to be able to recruit these people and keep the people. It was such a big deal. Somebody graduates at the top of the class, they can't even make a deal with the company because they don't think they're going to be able to stay in the country. That is going to end on day one.

• 28:12Brad Gerstner?

  But this week, we got a very different message. Right. Marco Rubio tweeted, "The US will begin revoking visas of Chinese students, including those with connections to CCP," which seemed reasonable. But the conjunction was, "Or studying in critical fields."

• 28:31Bill Gurley?

  Yep.

• 28:31Brad Gerstner?

  Right? And that seemed out of the gates. Like, we all know AI is a critical field. It seemed really broad and concerning. And really, a 180-degree turn from what the president had previously said on the All In Pod. I saw that you tweeted something about this. What was your reaction to this? And how are you feeling about where we stand today on it?

• 28:55Bill Gurley?

  Yeah, I mean, and I think in one of our very first episodes, we posted a video of Reagan, which I think it was like his last speech leaving office, where he talked about America, you know, being successful precisely because our doors are open and inviting to the best and brightest from around the world. And all of that makes sense to me. And this particular action, I think, has the potential to run counter to all those positive things. I, you know, I wish there had been more follow-up on the Trump promise. I would be hugely supportive of that. We've all seen the list of all the immigrants that

• 29:35Bill Gurley?

  have been so successful and critical to Silicon Valley's own success. And, you know, you and I have also talked about the fact that some people say 50% of AI researchers are of Chinese origin. And I believe now the patent count in AI coming out of China is larger than the US. And so, yeah, one interesting takeaway from what we just talked about is maybe the Chinese government isn't as interested in entrepreneurs being as successful economically, you know, from an equity standpoint. So if we're that land of opportunity, they would want to be here. They would want to be a citizen here. They would want to build

• 30:18Bill Gurley?

  their companies here. And so, I really think, you know, and look, I'm all for, you know, not having spies, right? That makes sense. But when you take these kind of broad statements, and, you know, and they have the potential to be slippery slopes, right? Where the next step is what? You start, you know... Studying LinkedIn for every single AI company for anyone of Chinese origin. I think that has the potential to take on kind of a McCarthy like, you know, perspective that could be very dangerous to our long-term competitiveness.

• 30:56Brad Gerstner?

  Well, I think part of it too is just about brand USA. Like, what is the brand we want to project into the world? Right? Like, it's not just about the students who are already here. It's about the generation of students who are still in China or still in Southeast Asia or anywhere else in the world, in South Africa, like Elon and Saks and, you know, and others. You know, is this a place that they feel like is capricious and can just change on a dime? And all of a sudden throw them out after they've invested time and energy here? Or is this truly the land of opportunity, the place they want to go build their dreams? And I think that the cost to the US brand on a global basis, we have been the place for the last three, four decades or much, much longer, but certainly in the age of technology,

• 31:42Brad Gerstner?

  everybody's wanted to come and do these things. It's a nod to our great national benefit. Trillions and trillions of dollars worth of US enterprise, our economic growth, our economic productivity, our standard of living is higher. We've stayed ahead in all of these critical national security areas, precisely because we've been so inviting to people around the world. And we were making the argument, you know, when we had Aaron Levy on, that we need to dramatically increase the number of H1B visas and make it a lot easier for people to get them. And so when I hear this, I mean, I have to say, out of everything that's occurred in the administrations, in some respects, I could not have been more thrilled by the president's promise on the All In Pod.

• 32:24Brad Gerstner?

  I thought that was a big turning point, I think, for folks in Silicon Valley. And so to see this, what felt like a 180 on this, I certainly hope that it was misinterpreted, that it's very narrow, that we are going to project an inviting and welcoming brand America. Certainly, man, right now, it is so critical in the age of AI to get the world's best researchers here. Like you said, I saw a study that suggested that 40 to 50% of the AI researchers in the United States, our best researchers, are Chinese.

• 32:59Brad Gerstner?

  So if you're gonna go after Chinese students studying AI at Stanford,

• 33:04Brad Gerstner?

  by definition, the slippery slope is not that far to say, I gotta go after these researchers. There are a lot more risks to our national security theoretically than a student studying at Stanford. Again, I'm with you. I'm all about being tough. You gotta be here legally. I don't want anybody spying on us, but I think it's a very dangerous place and really destructive to our national brand if we do this. And so, you know, when I saw your tweet about this, the best way to stay ahead of China is to poach their talent. You know, just a few weeks ago, we were talking about an AI visa, right? That if you were an AI researcher from China in the United States, we had to give your family an AI visa to come over here so that you don't have so much pressure on you to go back to China.

• 33:50Brad Gerstner?

  So we need to find out where, we need to bottom this out, but I certainly want to weigh in that we need to focus on recruiting.

• 33:58Bill Gurley?

  You know, just merely trying to understand China, why it's successful and all those things. Some people label you as a Chinophile, you know, just because you're not a China hawk. And I worry more in general that the China hawk mindset leads you to policy that's really bad, you know? Especially people that jump to that place. And a lot of people are these days, right? And so I just think that, you know, policy is one of those things where you can have an intent and you can implement a policy and you can get the exact opposite outcome,

• 34:43Bill Gurley?

  which was one of the things I talked about back in my speech.

• 34:48Brad Gerstner?

  The export controls on China probably is what caused Huawei to catch up so quickly. You know, the Biden era diffusion rule was going to allow the Chinese AI stack to win the global race in AI. You know, and now we see, and I think Saks has appropriately called this out, we see this conflating between people who are just AI deceleration. And want to stop AI and capture it for themselves. Right now they're kind of positioning themselves as China Hawks. So that they can gather a bigger alliance in order to to to slow this down. I think it's all bad policy. From my perspective, we need to focus on our own race. Look at the lane ahead, run as fast as we can. And if you and I want to win championships and build a championship basketball team.

• 35:32Brad Gerstner?

  We should not care where in the world the basketball player comes from. We just need to get the best players on our team to win the championship. And we ought to take the same approach to AI and technology.

• 35:42Bill Gurley?

  And and and I, you know, other people have said this, so I don't want to belabor it too much. But, you know, the the entire Manhattan Project was was heavily impacted by immigrants. Like many, many of the great things that have been accomplished in this nation are because it attracts people from around the world and we get to cherry pick the best and the brightest. And so, yeah, we like the fact that that that the skilled immigration number has been stuck. I think at two to 250,000 a year for like 20 years is insanity. And we should be doing the opposite of of this. We should be figuring out exactly how to increase that number.

• 36:24Bill Gurley?

  Brad, staying on the topic of China, the the rare earth issue has has come back to the top of the headlines. And yeah, the the relationship between the two countries still is at an impasse. Which what are you hearing? What's the latest here? How could it broadly affect companies in the US?

• 36:44Brad Gerstner?

  You know, well, there's this Wall Street Journal headline that you and I shared. I think it's that China plays tough on rare earth exports and imparts powerful lessons on the pains of dependence. And it pointed to car companies risk factory shutdowns, you know, over this rare earth magnet shortage. And we had been hearing about this, remember, earlier in the year, I think I called it, you know, a kill shot by China can really cause massive disruption. Because they really are a global monopolist in the production of key magnets in almost every electric motor and electric parts. And so the real question is, you know, is there a way out of this? How do we see this, you know, playing out? And I see a real parallel bill here between rare earths and AI chips.

• 37:29Brad Gerstner?

  Okay, in both instances, each country views them as existential.

• 37:35Brad Gerstner?

  Right? China views AI chips as existential because they know AGI is critical to national security, national economic security, etc. We view these magnets as existential because we got to keep our critical industries going. We use this to not only build electric motors that go in our Teslas, but we use them in electric motors that go into parts that are critical to our military. So I was thinking about this, right? President Xi is talking, or President Trump is talking to Xi on Friday, a couple of days from now. And if I were the president, what would I do? I think I would trade rare earths for access to US AI chips, specifically this now deprecated Blackwell 30 chip. And let me, let me explain why.

• 38:18Brad Gerstner?

  Let me maybe make, you know, four or five points as to why I think this would be a great trade for the US at this point in time. Okay. Number one, this, you know, this B30 is this deprecated chip. So one of the concerns we had about the H20 was that there was too, too much high bandwidth memory on it, right? And that, that if you cluster enough of them together could be used for training. So what they did on the B30 is they took, it took HBM off it altogether. And it also doesn't use this COAS from TSMC. So it gives them a chip that's competitive in the market, but it actually deprecates it from a training perspective. It still provides a big gap to where the US Frontier chips are, the Blackwell 200 and

• 39:01Brad Gerstner?

  300, but it is competitive in the Chinese market. And so what does that do? We've talked about this the last few weeks. That keeps, you know, half of the world's researchers and the developers in the AI ecosystem are in China. It keeps them in that CUDA ecosystem, allows Nvidia to compete, and I think slows down their ability to run the table around the rest of the world. I think when we ban chips to China, it's going to accelerate Huawei, like we just talked about, unintended consequences. It's going to bring everybody into their developer ecosystem, and it's going to reduce the amount of, of developers in the, in the Nvidia ecosystem. So I think that's a bad thing. Yeah. Number two, selling them these chips, right? Which I don't

• 39:45Brad Gerstner?

  Don't think materially advances their cause on AI generates billions and billions of dollars of taxes to the US government, right? It reduces our trade deficit. Remember, if we're selling them $40 billion worth of chips and all of a sudden we take it to zero, we've just increased our trade deficit by $40 billion. And finally, it produces billions in revenue or in profits to Nvidia, which they can then plow back in to making sure that Nvidia stays at the front of the AI race, which is a proxy for the US staying in front in AI. So that's point two. On point three, it gets us, right? If we do this trade, and I don't know that China would do this trade, but if we did this trade, then it would get us access to those rare earths right now,

• 40:29Brad Gerstner?

  which is absolutely critical. And it buys us time to stand up our own rare earth supply. There's no doubt what this moment has revealed to both China and to the United States is that we have to get back to our critical industries, precision manufacturing, rare earths, etc. But that's going to take years to do. And China, I'm sure, is saying to themselves, we've got to wean our dependency off of Nvidia, but it also takes them years to do. So it allows us to continue to build that out without the disruption. If we don't do this, then we're going to have a massively disrupted economy over the next six quarters, slowing down economic growth and causing problems and critical shortages in parts to the military, in parts to our US auto industry, etc.

• 41:12Bill Gurley?

  Yeah.

• 41:13Brad Gerstner?

  So I would say that the next point, I'll call this the final one, and then I want to get your reaction, right? If we keep the chip ban in place, here's my biggest concern. I think it dramatically increases the chances that China is forced to move on Taiwan, right? We're out there telling everybody in the world that AI is totally existential. We have lots of our leaders who are saying AGI is going to be eclipsed within the next two to three years. But yet we're telling one of the largest economic powers on the planet, but we're going to prevent you from having it, right? And so there's a way they can, they can say, well, if that is so existential as a risk to our country,

• 41:55Brad Gerstner?

  we just have to go take Taiwan, which I don't think, I think would be horrible for the United States. By the way, I think it'd be terrible for China as well. But it would be a hugely risky event in the world, particularly because the US needs another three to four years to diversify our supply chain away from China.

• 42:13Bill Gurley?

  Yeah. So, um, three, three reactions to this. First, you know, and, and they're all in agreement. But yeah, it'd be tough to balance trade if, if, if we don't let them have the stuff we're really good at. Like the stuff you trade, like, I mean, this is compared, this is like economics 101. Like the, the country, you know, you sell the stuff you're best at. So if you take that off the table, they're not going to buy our crap. And so like, there's no way to get to a trade balance if you're taking our best stuff off the table. I totally agree on Taiwan. I, I've made this point for a while. I think Jeffrey Sachs makes the same point. You, you need to be careful that the actions you're taking aren't, aren't the exact ones that encourage that to

• 42:58Bill Gurley?

  happen the most quickly. Um, and then thirdly, you know, part of why we're in this battle over these, these rare earth components is that we, we did these export controls and it wasn't just about the Nvidia chips. I think recently we are trying to tell the world they can't buy the Huawei chips. So this is outside of America trying to enforce an export ban on China's products selling into Europe, selling into South America. I, I think that is, you know, something that is, is beyond the scope of what our government should be capable of doing. And I've talked about this in the past. Like I expect, you know, SML to just ignore us telling them they can or

• 43:43Bill Gurley?

  can't do something. And I worry, and I've mentioned this before, but I worry that rather than build a wall around China, we're going to build a wall around America.

• 43:53Brad Gerstner?

  Yep. Well, it's, it's well said. And, and listen, I think huge credit goes to, uh, David Sachs and Howard Lutnick so far for repealing the, the Biden diffusion rule by, by reopening up the global markets, making sure America's running as fast as we can. The American AI stack can win around the world. I think it's a closer call for them on US chips to China. But this deprecated chip, I hope they take a close look at it. I think it would be a great win-win trade, uh, for both countries. We need Those rare earths. And by the way, I'm not saying that this is a permanent state of nature. Think about this, Bill. Today, we have about 0% of of of of leading edge chips fabbed outside of Taiwan.

• 44:35Brad Gerstner?

  Right? Almost nothing in the United States. And by 2020 or by 2030, so in four or five years from now, people think that we'll have upwards of 15 to 20% leading edge capacity in the United States, which is a huge step forward. I saw a presentation this week involving the United Arab Emirates, where if they were to build an advanced fab with TSMC and give the US some sovereign influence over this fab. Right? So if it was a joint deal, that we could increase the market share of the United States advanced advanced nodes to almost 40 or 50% in four years, that would be an extraordinary rebalancing of the global supply chain when it comes to advanced chips.

• 45:19Brad Gerstner?

  But we're not going to do that if we're if we're in a war over Taiwan. Right? And so it would seem to me that now would be the time that you would find, you know, this reasonable middle ground. We would run like hell to build out capability in Arizona and in other countries like the UAE that are friendly to us, you know, where we're building out this this leading edge capability. It would seem to me a much smarter policy than pursuing the one that we're on now, where we have global embargoes, the Chinese on rare earths and us on chips. Enough said on that. I want to jump. I know that we're we're we're time short. Let's let's talk a little bit about just what's going on in the market. You had some thoughts.

• 46:02Bill Gurley?

  Well, I mean, I'm I'm more interested in hearing your thoughts. So you were you were cautious at the beginning of the year. You got less cautious that the market has rebounded, yet many of the biggest issues that I think people care about, the the whether or not we can get some agreement with China, what's going to happen with the tariffs, and there's new information on that, judges blocking and not blocking the the tariff talk. And then the debt issue, which now, you know, is is there's a whole bunch of of noise, you know, being stirred up by Elon, you know, now saying he doesn't support the big, beautiful bill. So there's there seems to me to me to be as much uncertainty as as there's ever been this year.

• 46:48Bill Gurley?

  But I'm very curious on your take.

• 46:50Brad Gerstner?

  Well, the market's clearly not agreeing with you at the moment, Bill. You know, we've had this incredible bounce. The Nasdaq's up 20% from its intra-day lows. Yes, now it's just above flat for the year, maybe up 1%. The S and P also has had a huge bounce, now up like 2% for the year. Yes, I think it was on May 2nd or early in May where we talked about us changing the flight path because I saw this approach to getting to the other side of tariffs, the Bessent consensus winning, signing the reconciliation bill that would extend the tax cuts and have new tax stimulus. And so as I sit here today, like the bounce makes a lot of sense to me.

• 47:33Brad Gerstner?

  But where we go from here matters a lot. And so what are the key things that I'm looking at? Well, first, on tariffs, China is the big enchilada. The president's talking with President Xi on Friday. And you have to believe that the Bessent consensus or accord that was negotiated in Geneva, that we are going to get to a status where global tariffs are going to land in that territory, you know, on a blended basis around the world of, you know, 10, 15%, right? So we talked about, are they going to be trillions? Or are they going to be hundreds of billions? It's got to land in that lower quadrant, or I think the market moves lower. And I think that's still where we're headed. But they're definitely, the topic we just talked about,

• 48:17Brad Gerstner?

  there are some binary outcomes, I think, as it relates to us and China. It looks like Europe is making good progress. Now, on the reconciliation bill, it looked like that was making incredible progress. I still think it will. Listen, I think that Elon has appropriately, you know, pointed out that the challenges with the debt. But I would really encourage people to look at this Ray Dalio piece and also what Bessent has now been saying. They call it 333, but it's how to get us to 3% GDP growth, right? And how to get us to a debt to GDP ratio of 3%. You can't just cut $2 trillion in a single year. That would be an 800 basis point headwind to GDP. It would throw us into a recession.

• 49:00Brad Gerstner?

  If not depression like like state because you have so remember government spending is a component of GDP and so there it's about what is the flight path and I would like to see Besant lay out this four or five six year plan to this 3% debt to GDP ratio it's not going to happen in the reconciliation bill because again as as many people have discussed the reconciliation bill does not touch discretionary spending that will come by way of the rescission act that was just sent to Congress and the Speaker of the House has said that he's going to vote on and I expect that they will pass so there's you know I think it's a confusing set of of issues but to

• 49:42Brad Gerstner?

  be clear I think that we need to see the reset the reconciliation bill pass because that's what extends the tax cuts which I think are critical in the absence of that you get a $4 trillion tax increase and markets go a lot lower in addition to that the no tax on tips the no tax on overtime the the ability to have a deduction against your social security taxes that's probably three or $400 billion of new stimulus to the economy that's what's going to give you the growth bill to get you back to 3% so I think if you're a market participant I believe that we're going to land the plane on both of those and if you believe that we're going to land the plane

• 50:22Brad Gerstner?

  then I see accelerating economic growth in the back half of the year and into next year but this is you know be optimistic right but but the proof is is in the pudding we've got to see those things land there and if they don't I expect the market will be back down 10 to 15% which is where we were just a few weeks ago so there's still a lot of volatility out there there's been a lot of talk about these the 10-year rates bill yeah and one thing I just want to point out because the 10 year rates have gone from 42 to bounce back up to 44 45 and a lot of people are hand wringing about this and and saying this just goes to prove that we're in this national you know debt spiral and nobody wants to buy our debt but I just want to point out

• 51:06Bill Gurley?

  They compare them to Spain and other countries that were in you know liquidity crisis not too long ago

• 51:15Brad Gerstner?

  Yeah but I just want to point out like like several other people have yields the 10-year has been in a 4 to 5% range bill for the last two years And you know, this is far like there were people, remember Larry Summers at the end of 2022 saying that the 10 years go into 7%, right? That's what caused a hyperinfl- we're gonna have hyperinflation. What have we seen? Core PCE just came out lower than people expected, right? We're now on a core PCE run rate that causes me to believe that the Fed will now reduce rates. The market's saying they're gonna cut rates twice in the back half of the year. Why? Because we're still in restrictive territory. The Fed has said we're in restrictive territory. They've said there's not a new neutral rate. And so the

• 51:59Brad Gerstner?

  bond market to me at these levels is not that concerning. Seriously, I would like an important national discussion on a balanced budget amendment or some other mechanism to get us to this 3% target. I think that's super important. But if you're saying, okay, should I be really scared that we're on a path to 7% interest rates over the course of the next six months? No, I think you could very well find yourself in the exact opposite position. I think if they sign the reconciliation bill and they land the deal on China, right? And then you get a couple of rate cuts in the back half of the year because inflation continues to come in, this market's gonna be a lot higher. So don't take yourself out of the game, but I think it is a wait and see approach.

• 52:43Bill Gurley?

  And what do you put the probability on the deal with China coming together?

• 52:48Brad Gerstner?

  I put it's pretty high probability. And you know, remember, I was asked about this on CNBC in the in the heat of the crisis. And I said, you know, because Trump was putting Navarro on the Sunday talk shows and Besen, and they had two very different points of view. And I said, you have door one, door two, and the president's got to choose, right? And I said at the time, I think at the end of the day, he wrote a book called The Art of the Deal. He is a negotiator. He is a fair trader. He wants a fair deal for the United States. He wants to reassure critical national industries. But I do not think he wants to slam the brakes on the global economy and put the global economy into a recession, which he knows it would. And so I expect we'll get a deal done with China. But that

• 53:31Brad Gerstner?

  means that China's got to step up and be Willing to deal as well. I think the tea leaves read pretty, pretty good on that, but, but we'll know a lot more over the course of the next few weeks.

• 53:41Bill Gurley?

  Okay.

• 53:42Brad Gerstner?

  Okay, I have a couple, a couple of things for our lightning round, Bill.

• 53:45Bill Gurley?

  Okay.

• 53:46Brad Gerstner?

  You know, you talked, we had a great discussion last week on this Delaware situation. I think you, you've been out in front on this. Telling companies that if you sat on their board, they got to consider exiting Delaware, otherwise they may be breaching their fiduciary duties. I saw Fortune magazine actually quoted, you wrote their headline with something's awry in Delaware. New study reveals lawyers in tiny US states are winning fee multipliers from major companies up to 66 times their normal hourly rate. You got two and a half million views on this Delaware clip after you got a little promo from, from Saks and Elon. But was there any feedback you got this week? Did you hear from companies? Are they reconsidering whether or not they want to be in Delaware?

• 54:29Bill Gurley?

  I think, I think a lot of companies are reconsidering and, and you know, there were two, there are two things that I would add that, that have become clear to me. You know, since then, but, but one, people talk about, well, who, who is at risk here? I, I, I think it's actually the highest profile companies that are at risk. Because they're the ones that, you know, an activist judge is going to want to make it a exception out of. And so, you know, maybe, maybe if you're a smaller market cap company, maybe it's not something you need to think about with urgency. And we, we discussed this, the, the reason people were in Delaware is because it was predictable. That was the, if someone, when you're a young entrepreneur and they say, oh, incorporate in Delaware, you're like, what?

• 55:12Bill Gurley?

  Why would I do that? And someone says, oh, well, they've had corporate law for a long time. It's very predictable. And oh, okay. And so everybody does it. Well, that's no longer true. And so I, I think everyone has to consider it. The other thing that I verified that I, I think is really important. We live in an age where companies are staying private longer. I think many entrepreneurs, many board members think that, that litigation around shareholder events are tied solely to public companies. That is not true. If you're incorporated in Delaware, you can be sued. You know, if your shares are trading more freely in the secondary market, you're, you're at risk as well. And so I would just say, just because you're not public, doesn't mean this shouldn't matter to you.

• 55:58Bill Gurley?

  And in fact, I can imagine someone who has an activist bent being particularly excited about bringing a case against a private large unicorn.

• 56:10Brad Gerstner?

  You're certainly influencing it there. I can tell you this. I've had a couple of companies ask me in the wake of that, whether or not they should be reincorporating. So I think there is a movement afoot. Something else we talked about in relation to corporate governance bill on a prior pod, and this is these proxy advisors, ISS and Glass Lewis, right? They have a monopoly on giving advice, particularly to passive shareholders about how they should vote their shares in the annual vote. And we've come to discover, you know, that they're probably not the best and most objective when it comes to doing it, or they may have political agendas that are misaligned with your own. Senator Hagerty had a tweet yesterday that caught my eye. He said, "The two largest proxy advisors

• 56:55Brad Gerstner?

  have 97% market share. They wield control over millions and millions of votes. They've hijacked corporate governance and an investigation into their anti-competitive and abusive practices is long overdue." I hadn't heard about this in, you know, a few months, but any reactions to that?

• 57:15Bill Gurley?

  Yeah, I don't know if you remember, but when we did, we did an episode early on about stock-based comp. And before that, I had reached out to ISS to talk about how they come up with their different, you know, philosophies. And it was very clear to me that there was no one there thinking from a first principles perspective about, you know, what are the types of policies or actions that a board could take, that a comp committee could take, that would align interests with shareholders? And, you know, I would think that if you run a large index fund, if you're BlackRock or whatever, and you're voting, you know, your shares for or against different policies, that the number one thing you should care about, perhaps the only thing you should care about, is whether they're looking after

• 58:00Bill Gurley?

  the interest of shareholders. And we clearly crept away from that in the past, you know, 10 or 20 years. The senator that you're talking about said on, when he was giving this talk, that these two companies are now both over 80% owned outside the US. And

• 58:20Brad Gerstner?

  Oh, wow.

• 58:21Bill Gurley?

  And that they both have corporate philosophies that extend beyond what we just talked about, which, you know, I've always, I grew up in the school that fiduciary duty is the number one responsibility of all board members, and that means looking after the, you know, shareholders. And so I think, you know, that, that two things should happen, you know, first, I, I, I do wonder, and, and this would be a question for the Senator, like, why are so many companies paying attention to what these people say? Are they just loyal? I mean, are they just lazy? Do they, do they not want to do the work themselves? And admittedly, if you're running index fund, you're on thin margins. So maybe you don't

• 59:03Bill Gurley?

  have time. But they should wake up and realize that they're not solely looking after the interest of shareholders and they have other interests in mind. And ironically, and this gets back to policy, one of the key reasons so many companies have super voting is so that these two companies can't tell them what to do. And so, you know, it's ironic because most people think of super voting shares as being less good governance, you know, a lesser form of good governance. But if these companies that are measuring you and telling, you know, index investors how to vote, aren't looking after shareholder

• 59:42Bill Gurley?

  interest, then, then you may need to take that step precisely to get away from them. And so I would encourage, you know, the Black Rocks and all the, the ETF people to not just simply vote with what these people say. And maybe what we need, maybe we need an alternative to these two things. You and I, you know, talked about SBC. I mean, I think there's a number of things you could use AI that you would put into a model to, to say, what is the type of good governance that aligns shareholder interest? And, and maybe it'd be good to see something like that pop up.

• 1:00:17Brad Gerstner?

  I love it. I love it. Yeah, let's incubate that, Bill.

• 1:00:20Bill Gurley?

  Okay.

• 1:00:22Brad Gerstner?

  Let, let's incubate that. Anybody out there? Let's find some, uh, some of the guys who are playing, uh, the AI founders and engineers who are playing in the Altimeter Poker Game last night, they were looking for ideas. This is a great one.

• 1:00:34Bill Gurley?

  Okay, well, I would encourage any of our listeners, there may be someone already doing it. That's already working on an alternative to these two companies. And if you are, reach out to us. We could, we could help fund it, help promote it. And, and it'd be exciting to see.

• 1:00:51Brad Gerstner?

  Yeah, no, that'd be great. Well, it's been another good one, buddy. Great seeing you. Until next time.

• 1:00:57Bill Gurley?

  Take care.

• 1:01:07Brad Gerstner?

  As a reminder to everybody, just our opinions, not investment advice.