The Economics of AGI: Why Verification Is the New Scarcity w/ Christian Catalini

MIT economist Christian Catalini joins Ryan and David to unpack his new paper, "Some Simple Economics of AGI," which argues that the scarce resource in the AI economy is no longer intelligence but verification: the human capacity to check, judge, and certify that AI output is correct. Christian walks through the two cost curves reshaping every industry (cost to automate vs. cost to verify), explains why entry-level jobs are collapsing first through what he calls the "missing junior loop," why even top experts are unknowingly training their replacements (the "codifier's curse"), and maps out the three roles that survive the transition: Directors, Meaning Makers, and Liability Underwriters.---📣SPOTIFY PREMIUM RSS FEED | USE CODE: SPOTIFY24https://bankless.cc/spotify-premium---BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS:🔮POLYMARKET | #1 PREDICTION MARKEThttps://bankless.cc/polymarket-podcast🪐GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCEhttps://bankless.cc/galaxy-podcast🏅BITGET TRADFI | TRADE GOLD WITH USDThttps://bankless.cc/bitget🎯THE DEFI REPORT | ONCHAIN INSIGHTShttps://thedefireport.io/bankless🐇MEGAETH | 1ST REAL-TIME BLOCKCHAINhttps://bankless.cc/megaeth---TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro3:42 The Low-Grade Panic6:43 Who Gets Hit First, and Hardest?13:06 Coding as Canary, or Exception?16:21 Human Cognition Was the Binding Constraint19:59 What Is Verification, Exactly?29:10 The Codifier's Curse31:21 The Expanding Iceberg: Non-Measurable Work38:32 The Two Racing Cost Curves41:59 Trojan Horse Externality48:46 The Four Quadrants: Where Do You Want to Be?54:12 Liability Underwriters and the Venture Capital Parallel55:41 Directors: Navigating Unknown Unknowns59:49 60-80% of Your Job Can Be Displaced1:06:24 Button Pushers vs. Founders: The Great Resorting1:12:08 The Luddite Risk: Political Backlash Against AI1:17:30 What Companies and Investors Should Do1:22:56 The Crypto Connection1:25:11 Don't Panic: A Closing Playbook---RESOURCESChristian Catalinihttps://x.com/ccataliniSome Simple Economics of AGIhttps://arxiv.org/html/2602.20946v2Christian’s thread on his paperhttps://x.com/ccatalini/status/2026311784421036223---Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:https://www.bankless.com/disclosures