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Adam Foroughi, Applovin CEO: Surviving a 92% Drawdown, Ads as ML 1.0 & the $50B Game Ad Market

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Hosted by Chamath Palihapitiya, David Friedberg and Jason Calacanis

23m
Transcript

Original podcast

Summary

Written by a model from the transcript; not yet reviewed.

AppLovin CEO Adam Foroughi joins the hosts to discuss building a mobile gaming and advertising powerhouse that scales without venture capital, surviving a severe 92 percent market drawdown, and the evolution of deep learning recommendation models. Foroughi explains how AppLovin capitalised on its own crashing stock price by aggressively buying back shares, eventually expanding into performance advertising that rivals social media giants. The discussion also covers the role of deep learning in ad targeting, consumer privacy regulations, and why simple discovery and dopamine-driven purchases still dominate human behavior over AI agents.

Throughout the conversation, the guest details how the shift from regression models to deep learning models in 2023 unlocked massive revenue growth and exceptional EBITDA margins. The hosts probe into potential competitive threats, international engineering teams, and the unique operating strategy that allowed a relatively unknown firm to scale into a multi-billion dollar platform. Listeners get a rare look inside the operational discipline of a company that prioritizes deep technical focus and lean execution over media attention.

  • When a public company experiences extreme market undervaluation, executing an aggressive share buyback program can dramatically benefit remaining shareholders during a recovery. 12:14
  • Deep learning models in advertising function similarly to recommendation systems in large language models by predicting future outcomes based on massive datasets. 2:46
  • Focusing intensely on a specific niche like mobile gaming allows a lean team to outmaneuver much larger technology giants. 20:57
  • Privacy regulations requiring user opt-outs do not eliminate targeted advertising; instead, they group unverified users and create demand for relevant ads. 16:42

Chapters

  1. 0:01
    Introduction and Host Welcome

    The hosts greet Adam Farugie and set the stage for the interview.

  2. 0:31
    AppLovin Overview and Market Size

    Adam explains AppLovin’s business model, mobile gaming ad spend, and the $50B gaming ad market.

  3. 3:08
    Advertising as Machine Learning 1.0

    Discussion of how advertising pioneered machine learning and its evolution into deep learning models.

  4. 6:14
    Impact of AI on Advertising and Search

    Explores how large language models will compete with Google Search and drive new ad opportunities.

  5. 12:49
    Managing a 92% Stock Drawdown

    Adam recounts the 92% decline, internal culture, and aggressive buyback strategy that turned the company around.

  6. 16:30
    Privacy, Regulation, and Data Strategy

    Adam discusses privacy concerns, Apple’s changes, and how AppLovin adapts its data practices.

  7. 18:45
    Future of Advertising and Agentic Commerce

    Speculation on how agents and new interfaces will shape advertising and shopper behavior.

  8. 20:32
    Competitive Advantage and Growth Strategy

    Adam explains how focus, lean operations, and deep learning give AppLovin an edge over giants.

  9. 21:34
    Margin Expansion and Leakage Analysis

    Discussion of AppLovin’s high EBITDA margins, potential leakage, and opportunities for further expansion.

  10. 23:49
    Closing Remarks and Host Appreciation

    Hosts wrap up the episode, thank Adam, and reflect on the conversation.

Highlights

  • 1:36

    Scale of Mobile Gamingdata

    The guest explains that over a billion people play mobile casual games daily, driving an estimated fifty billion dollars in annual ad spend across the ecosystem.

  • 2:46

    Deep Learning Expansioninsight

    Deep learning models have evolved to take gaming ad spaces and apply them to shopper behavior, unlocking massive new economic impacts.

  • 10:59

    Surviving Market Drawdownsstory

    The guest details how the company's stock collapsed to a three point eight billion dollar market cap during a year they generated one billion in EBITDA.

  • 12:14

    Aggressive Share Buybacksstrategy

    Faced with a lack of institutional buyer demand at the IPO, the company stopped talking to investors and bought back six billion dollars of its own stock.

  • 14:28

    Stock Rebound in New Yorkstory

    After remaining silent during a product pivot, the CEO visited New York investors when the stock was at eighty dollars, sending it surging immediately.

  • 18:01

    Acquiring Games for Datastrategy

    The company originally bought game studios solely as a data play to seed training sets for their first deep learning models before eventually divesting them.

  • 21:34

    Industry Leading Marginsdata

    The platform maintains exceptionally high EBITDA margins through algorithmic focus and automation, powering advertisers without bloated operational overhead.

Quotes

  • “We disclosed last January, so nearly two years ago, that on our own platform, there was $11 billion a year of ad spend.”
    Unnamed speaker · 1:46
  • “And then in 22, the stock went down literally every day. We got to about a $3.8 billion market cap.”
    Unnamed speaker · 10:56
  • “We generated a ton of cash. Let's start buying our own stock. Let's become our best investor.”
    Unnamed speaker · 12:13
  • “Our EBITDA margins, I think, are number one in the markets, 84%.”
    Unnamed speaker · 21:34
  • “We never think we won. We think every day we wake up, and we're probably going to get screwed right now, and we better work hard.”
    Unnamed speaker · 20:32
  • “We bought our own studios. We seeded the training data in our first model. We built a model that was really successful in market.”
    Unnamed speaker · 18:12

About this episode

(0:00) Adam Foroughi joins the Besties! (3:07) Discovery vs search & is your phone listening? (10:04) IPO tumble & becoming your own best investor (16:00) Privacy rules, Apple's crackdown & how agents change people's shopping (20:00) How a lean team beats the giants, margin moats & building in China Thanks to our partners for making this possible! IREN is a vertically integrated AI Cloud platform, delivering data centers, compute and software for AI training and inference. https://iren.com/ Oracle connects the data, applications, and infrastructure that turn AI into business outcomes—with the flexibility, choice, and control to optimize as AI evolves. http://oracle.com/ai EY helps tech innovators scale from startup to exit to megacap. You build the future. We'll handle the rest. http://www.ey.com Meta believes the future is for everyone. We're focused on giving every person the tools to reach their full potential and making sure the benefits of technology are distributed to all. http://www.meta.com Keel Infrastructure owns the power, land, and connectivity that HPC and AI run on - backed by secured energy assets and established grid interconnections across North America. https://keelinfra.com/ Airwallex - Agentic Global Business Accounts. Open local accounts in 70+ countries to accept payments, earn yield, pay globally, and manage spend. http://airwallex.com PayPal has been revolutionizing commerce globally for more than 25 years. Creating innovative experiences that make moving money, selling, and shopping simple, personalized, and secure, PayPal empowers consumers and businesses in approximately 200 markets to join and thrive in the global economy. For more information, visit https://www.paypal.com Google for Startups connects founders with the right people, products, and best practices to help startups build faster and go further. https://startup.google.com/ Explore ideas, industries, and technologies worth understanding with Chamath every week on Learn with Me: https://research.socialcapital.com/allin Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg #allin #tech #news

Transcript

0:00
23:52

4,714 words · 7 speakers

Speaker names marked are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

Topics

  • advertising
  • ads
  • Google
  • large language model
  • Meta
  • deep learning model
  • Apple
  • Palo Alto
  • Google Search
  • AppLovin

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