DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market

(0:00) Besties intros! (2:10) Responding to recent media coverage (17:58) DOJ/FTC strike deal to target Nvidia, OpenAI, and Microsoft (32:40) Meme stocks are back: Keith Gill aka Roaring Kitty resurfaces, disclosing nine figure position in GameStop (58:36) Citadel and BlackRock back TXSE to take on NYSE and Nasdaq (1:02:34) Apple to announce OpenAI iPhone deal at WWDC (1:09:07) Science Corner: Alarming ocean temps continue, what to expect for hurricane season Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://twitter.com/Jason https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://twitter.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQQhAg0mfF8 https://x.com/vkhosla/status/1769529054955446533 https://x.com/vkhosla/status/1796293773389127987 https://x.com/shaunmmaguire/status/1796415146077954329 https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1798100723617698097 https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1798779830521000426 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/05/technology/nvidia-microsoft-openai-antitrust-doj-ftc.html https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ftc-opens-antitrust-probe-of-microsoft-ai-deal-29b5169a https://companiesmarketcap.com https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9cO3-MLHOM https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/29/newsom-california-artifical-intelligence-regulations-00160519 https://www.reddit.com/user/DeepFuckingValue https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/e-trade-considers-kicking-meme-stock-leader-keith-gill-off-platform-f2003ec4 https://x.com/TheRoaringKitty/status/1789807772542067105 https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GME:NYSE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-VO6dtFRes https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/keith-gills-gamestop-trades-pose-conundrum-for-market-cops-70cc5301 https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/GME/gamestop/revenue https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/gamestop-burned-andrew-left-in-2021-hes-betting-against-the-stock-again-4377cecb https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/18/business/melvin-capital-gamestop-short.html https://www.instagram.com/tim.naki/reels https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/new-texas-stock-exchange-takes-aim-at-new-yorks-dominance-e3b4d9ba https://listingcenter.nasdaq.com/assets/Board%20Diversity%20Disclosure%20Five%20Things.pdf https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-05/why-is-apple-aapl-teaming-up-with-openai-both-companies-need-each-other https://x.com/leonsimons8/status/1793319395080520036

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Jason Calacanis?

  Alright, everybody. Welcome to the world's greatest podcast with me again today. The world's number one podcast. Yes, the world's number one podcast. We came in eighth last week, I think, for those of you looking at the iTunes rankings, which is absurd. We've only got to beat Ben Shapiro. Number eight across all of Apple? Something like that, yeah. Whatever their top episodes are on the weekends. Well, that means we crushed on Spotify, then. Probably, yeah, I would guess. I don't know all the rankings, but... And I guess on YouTube, we got labeled with some COVID thing, Magic? I mean, so what is going on at YouTube? What a joke. Like, literally, you're labeling COVID at this point? I mean... What a joke.

• 0:38Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, my lord. So, I guess we have to, at the top of the show, talk about the fundraiser, and I guess this, like, Vinod Khosla came in hot this week and attacked the besties. Let's play the clip.

• 0:55Speaker 01

  What is your sense of the shifting winds in the valley around politics? I think for a very long time, the valley was seen as sort of a liberal bastion. But, you know, if you listen to Elon Musk, or you listen to All In Podcast, and that gang, and others, it seems to be shifting potentially towards former President Trump. Is that just a small pocket, or do you think that that's a real shift in terms of the way the valley's thinking politically?

• 1:24Speaker 02

  The first thing I would say is All In Podcast and some of the supporters there are not based in the valley. I would say there's a bunch of MAGA extremists in every part of society, and I hope we can prevent them from destroying democracy, which is probably the most important issue we face.

• 1:44Jason Calacanis?

  Alright, so that's... Why are you destroying democracy?

• 1:50Jason Calacanis?

  Now, that's a good bit, Jake. Now, that's good.

• 2:10Jason Calacanis?

  All right, David. If Vino was at the conference, he got a little chippy here. Maybe he got a little bit out of line. He was a little bit out of line. What's your take?

• 2:18David Sacks?

  A little bit.

• 2:19Jason Calacanis?

  A little bit.

• 2:20David Sacks?

  A little bit. Well, first of all, Vino should realize we're not MAGA extremists or extremists of any sort because he's at all in Summit last year.

• 2:28Jason Calacanis?

  He was great.

• 2:29David Sacks?

  Yeah, we liked what he had to say.

• 2:30Jason Calacanis?

  Productive.

• 2:30David Sacks?

  And I certainly don't dispute his expertise and track record in tech.

• 2:36David Sacks?

  But in addition to that, then he's saying that we're not based in Silicon Valley. We're not from Silicon Valley. We've all been here for decades. And then he doubled down on that in a tweet. So that's a bizarre statement. Maybe he thinks he gets to define people in or out of Silicon Valley. I don't really understand it. But to be frank, this is one of a series of statements that he's made recently that I can only call insulting and childish. First, he had this tweet that he said that Trump supporters were lacking in empathy and caring. Then he had another tweet where he said that Trump supporters weren't teaching good values to their kids. This caused Sean McGuire, who's a partner at Sequoia, to quote

• 3:17David Sacks?

  tweet him saying that I think that I'd rather raise my kids to grow up to take after Ivanka Trump than Hunter Biden.

• 3:25Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah.

• 3:26David Sacks?

  And that got like something like 20,000 likes. And it was one of those brutal ratios I've ever seen on a tweet. So in any event, I mean, this is just one in a series of partisan tweets. And look, I think you can take whatever position you want on a political candidate. I can understand if he doesn't like Trump. A lot of people don't. He's raising money for Biden. That's fine. Doesn't bother me at all.

• 3:47Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, he just had a fundraiser like two weeks ago or something.

• 3:50David Sacks?

  Right, exactly. That's not an issue at all. But what I do take offense at is labeling millions and millions of ordinary Americans as somehow lacking in empathy, lacking in caring, not being good parents, because you don't like their support for Trump.

• 4:06Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah.

• 4:06David Sacks?

  And I think that that that is a statement that frankly reeks of being cocooned in an elite bubble for way too long. And let me just explain, if you look at where Trump's support is strongest, it's really in middle America, in sort of the heartland of America of what-

• 4:26Jason Calacanis?

  In between the elite states.

• 4:28David Sacks?

  Basically, the part of America that coastal is dismissively referred to as flyover country.

• 4:35Jason Calacanis?

  Sure.

• 4:36David Sacks?

  And it's a lot of the industrial Midwest. And frankly, that part of the country has had not had the same type of economic experience that we've had in Silicon Valley.

• 4:46Jason Calacanis?

  Of course.

• 4:46David Sacks?

  They have not been beneficiaries of globalization.

• 4:50Jason Calacanis?

  Or equities, you know, and they're they're in the working class and the working class and the factories got gutted, yeah.

• 4:55David Sacks?

  Well, yeah, look, if you're in one of the handful of export industries in America, and I'm talking about if you're in Hollywood, or you're in big finance, or you're in software, then globalization has been great for you because it has created huge global markets for our products. However, if you're in an industry that has to compete with global exports, then it's been very bad with you. And the blue collar workers have been hurt, labor's been hurt, people who work with their hands have been hurt. They have not benefited in the same way from the system that we've had in this country for the last 30 years. So you can understand why they would not be so enchanted with elite thinking.

• 5:37Jason Calacanis?

  Of course.

• 5:38David Sacks?

  And I think to to then label those people as lacking in caring, or empathy, or not being good parents, because they haven't had they haven't had the same economic ride that you've had for the last 30 years, and then you-

• 5:49Jason Calacanis?

  It's a blind spot.

• 5:50David Sacks?

  You are the one who is fighting a legal battle to kick some of those people, the public-

• 5:57Jason Calacanis?

  The surfers at his beach, yeah.

• 5:59David Sacks?

  Kick the public off of the public beach in front of your beach house. And then you're saying they're the ones lacking in empathy? Dude, look in the mirror.

• 6:08Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, I mean, listen, the great irony of this is, as you know, the Democrats were supposed to be the, the party of the working people and Biden was supposed to be the pinnacle of that, like fighting for unions, fighting for the working person. And so they've just lost that whole thing and.

• 6:22David Friedberg?

  I'll say like, it feels like a lot of people are tilted because they defeated Trump and now he's back. And so that tilts a lot of people, like there was a lot of effort, a lot of energy. And a feeling of success that Trump was ousted. And the fact that the guy is now the frontrunner to be president again. Can be very tilting after feeling like you've already won the battle and guess what? It's back. I will also defend Vinod real quick. I, I'll say, having known Vinod for a long time, he's an investor with me. He's a guy I've come to appreciate and, and think highly of. We had him at the summit.

• 6:55Jason Calacanis?

  He was great at the summit.

• 6:56David Friedberg?

  He was great.

• 6:56Jason Calacanis?

  It was awesome.

• 6:57David Friedberg?

  If you listen to his thing, he said, the listeners of the pod, and then he said, MAGA extremists. So they're not based in Silicon Valley. I think he was referencing that the listeners of the pod are not based in Silicon Valley and they are MAGA extremists.

• 7:09Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, I couldn't hear.

• 7:10David Friedberg?

  I think what he meant to say was, and some of the supporters there are not based in Silicon Valley, meaning like the supporters.

• 7:16Jason Calacanis?

  Chamath, your thoughts on Vinod's comments?

• 7:19Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Yeah, I think Vinod's comments are a microcosm of something that's a little bit bigger than just him. And I think is roughly emblematic of the mainstream media, which is, I think the four of us have found over the course of these last four years doing the podcast, a rhythm. Where there's a whole diversity of views. We've always respected each other. We've learned from each other. And each of us have taken turns expressing something that the others have ended up converging on. That's not a holistic statement on every issue, but it has, it has happened. And that's a, an incredible example of how you should figure things out from first principles, especially things that matter.

• 8:03Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And I think this is the first time, and you know, look, David said this a few years ago. He said, Sax did, that the course of elections will be driven by podcasts. And I didn't give that a full enough weighting at the moment when he said it. But I think what I'm realizing is it's not necessarily just that podcasts will frame elections, but it's the counterfactual, which is that it fills a vacuum. And I think what you're seeing right now are the reactions of people that have thrived in what used to work, which was a traditional media infrastructure that would shape how people were supposed to think.

• 8:45Chamath Palihapitiya?

  But then all of a sudden, if you can have a platform like this, where people just talk from first principles respectfully, and then the chips are going to be what it is, and you know, people will come to their own conclusions. I think that that's what people are reacting to. So I think what Vinod is reacting to is this sort of discomfort where you see four reasonable, intelligent people, all of a sudden talk open-mindedly about what's happening in the presidential election. And what you leave out is the planted orthodoxy of what you're supposed to think. And that's disconcerting to him. It's just disconcerting and confusing maybe to Sorkin, who I think is a wonderful reporter and a thinker.

• 9:27Chamath Palihapitiya?

  It's disconcerting, Jason, to every single media outlet over the last week that's breathlessly been trying to get me or Sax to have an opinion on this. And the reason I've deleted all of these emails is they don't get a chance to frame what we think.

• 9:42Chamath Palihapitiya?

  You can listen to the podcast and know what we think. This is the future of how smart, reasonable, moderate people should make decisions. It is an example. Talking to somebody you disagree with does not make your opinion bastardized. It actually makes your opinion valuable. There are these simple truths to living a productive life that if you want to embrace, you need to find friends that you can trust, even on issues when you disagree, you can hear them out. So that's what's happening right now. And I think that that's why we all need to sort of stand together, lock in arms, and just keep moving forward. It is something really important here that's happening. And I think that's why the media and these opinion makers are losing their minds.

• 10:26Jason Calacanis?

  Free Bird, your thoughts on this? You're friends with Vinod, as you mentioned, and you've always said to me, and in our personal discussions, that the reason you do this pod is because you really want to set an example of how to have great conversations and learn from each other and the tone of what we do here. So your thoughts on this?

• 10:45David Friedberg?

  The unfortunate reality in a voting system, an election cycle like we're in, Vinod went and did a fundraiser, it's public, that he did a fundraiser for Biden a few weeks ago. And he wants to win the election. He wants to make his horse win. There's a lot of reasons why I'm sure Vinod has chosen that person to be his horse. And so when you get on the playing field, you got two teams, only one team wins. So, you know, everyone pulls out all the stops to win. One of the things that is done is unfortunate, and it over time causes an erosion and a hardening into a kind of polarity between all people, which is that you call the other side wrong, or bad, or extreme. The term that he used,

• 11:25David Friedberg?

  which really, I think, personifies the problem, is he said their listeners are, they're MAGA extremists.

• 11:33Jason Calacanis?

  Extremist being the word, right. MAGA just means make America great again, which I think everybody wants to make America great again.

• 11:39David Friedberg?

  But the extremism phrase is used by both parties to describe the points of view of the other side. And what I think is lacking is a reshifting of the perspective to say, their views are valid. I acknowledge their views. I hear them. I know why they feel that way. I'm understanding where that group of people are coming from. And to have that acknowledgement unfortunately softens and weakens your position and ability to go out and win an election. And so both sides harden themselves and use terms like this to try and discredit the other side. So it's unfortunate to see, I think we all understand where someone who's trying to win a battle on the field is coming from when they're trying to do this. But I do think that what is deeply lacking in the erosion that's arisen is

• 12:21David Friedberg?

  because we can't say, I hear you. I see the problems. I recognize you as people just like us. You have kids, you have families, and You have a different point of view on the policies that will work and the individual that will realize those policies.

• 12:35Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I also think it's important to make sure that we reiterate again, at the sake of being pedantic, the facts, which is, this is a nonpartisan show, and it is a platform that has showcased and given time to Democrats and Republicans.

• 12:51Jason Calacanis?

  And independents.

• 12:52Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And independents.

• 12:53Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah.

• 12:54Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And they've all taken us up on it. So that thought by Vinod is, at best, incomplete, and more appropriately, just stupid and factually wrong.

• 13:04David Sacks?

  That's a good point. Larry Summers spoke at the same conference that Vinod did.

• 13:08Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Larry Summers, Dean Phillips, Bobby Kennedy, Chris Christie, I mean, this is a spectrum of people that we are bringing on, again, so that you can hear from them.

• 13:18Jason Calacanis?

  Sheryl Sandberg.

• 13:19Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Sheryl Sandberg, you can hear from them.

• 13:20Jason Calacanis?

  Jared Kushner.

• 13:21Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Jared Kushner. You can hear from them in an unfiltered way and come to your own conclusion. That's why we were number eight last week. That's the exact reason why. And I think that that's very scary, because instead of power brokers being able to filter an opinion, you now have an opportunity to just hear it for yourself, discuss it amongst your friends, and come to your own conclusion. So we have always been bipartisan here, and we will continue to be bipartisan. The second thing is, and I just want to say this again, I have asked the White House for President Biden to come on the show.

• 13:51Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, come on the show, please, yeah.

• 13:53David Sacks?

  Yeah, we've offered the exact same thing.

• 13:56Chamath Palihapitiya?

  We are just, we are just waiting.

• 13:58Jason Calacanis?

  People really don't want me to be friends with you guys. They want me to end my friendship with you, Chamath. They want me to end my friendship with you, Sax. Like, and these are people who are mutuals, I just want to say, and I want to just tell them all equally to go [bleep] themselves here. You can bleep out the F-word. Like, I'm not picking my friends based on their political parties, or their leanings, or who they're supporting for president. The way I look at this, Sax, is, at this point, we're all Americans, we're in this together. America survived Trump's presidency, America's going to survive Biden's presidency. The democratic process, it is very messy, everybody gets to have a voice, and let's just pause for a second here and open up the aperture, let's be thankful that everybody gets to have a say, let's keep it from getting personal. Half the humans on this planet Earth do not have a voice.

• 14:43Jason Calacanis?

  The one thing that's trending in the wrong direction globally is people living in a democracy. It's the one thing not getting better. We have a lot of work to do in this country. We have to respect each other like we try to do here on this podcast, and we have to talk about the important issues. We all agree the budget's out of control. We all agree the education system sucks. We live in a multipolar world. We have to figure that out. When we should go to war, when we shouldn't, when we need to stay out of things. These are complicated issues and name-calling in this presidency is not as important as tackling these issues together as Americans. I hope everybody can keep that in mind. So, let's debate this. May the best candidate win, and then let's move on and solve some problems here. Okay? And it's getting very personal.

• 15:25David Sacks?

  Yeah.

• 15:26Jason Calacanis?

  Well said. Really well said. I know, I'm really hurt by this because I tell you personally, it's very hurtful to me because I value our friendships.

• 15:32Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And they're picking on the wrong guy because you're the most loyal guy. And so it's kind of like, it's going to be the least effective.

• 15:37David Sacks?

  Well, you still care what they think, J. Cal. That's the problem. So they can get to you.

• 15:40Jason Calacanis?

  No, you can ask me if I do that. Don't tell me what I think, Sacks. You can ask me.

• 15:44David Sacks?

  Okay.

• 15:45Jason Calacanis?

  I actually care about people.

• 15:46David Sacks?

  Do you still care what they think?

• 15:47Chamath Palihapitiya?

  The two of you bicker like brothers.

• 15:48Jason Calacanis?

  No, we do. But I know, I just have to retrain Sacks that he can't tell me what I think.

• 15:52David Sacks?

  Retrain, okay.

• 15:53Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, no, because you do that. You put words in there.

• 15:55Chamath Palihapitiya?

  For all listeners, I just want you to know, they've been bickering like this for 20 years. So it's the funniest thing.

• 15:59Jason Calacanis?

  Here's the point. Here's the point.

• 16:00Chamath Palihapitiya?

  It happens even worse offline when we're not on the show.

• 16:03Jason Calacanis?

  It's unbelievable.

• 16:03Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Nonstop.

• 16:04David Sacks?

  You're ruining it, J. Cal. You're just ruining it right now.

• 16:06Jason Calacanis?

  No, here's the thing. I respect, you know, all of my friends, and I like having a diversity of opinions. That makes life more interesting for me. And then to tell me I can't be friends with this person, that person, the way I grew up, my dad had a bar, Hells Angels cops, firefighters, just everybody was allowed to come and hang out at the bar. Like, we're here, we're having a discourse, everybody's welcome for a seat at the table.

• 16:28Chamath Palihapitiya?

  LGBTQ.

• 16:29Jason Calacanis?

  All of them, the entire rainbow.

• 16:32David Sacks?

  What people haven't figured out yet is that cancel culture is over, virtue signaling is over.

• 16:37Jason Calacanis?

  Absolutely. DEI is over.

• 16:39David Sacks?

  It's off-trend, not on-trend. And the people who are still tweeting these blanket statements, and they're trying to demonize the entire other side with unfactual, unfounded potshots are just making fools of themselves. And you can see that in the, you can see that in the reaction on X.

• 16:56Jason Calacanis?

  All right, let's move on.

• 16:57David Sacks?

  Well, we have some breaking news here.

• 16:59Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, no.

• 17:00David Sacks?

  Just to put things on a happier note.

• 17:02Jason Calacanis?

  What happened? Did Uber get bought by Apple?

• 17:04David Sacks?

  Tesla just launched the Tesla Mezcal.

• 17:07Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, breaking news story. Hold on. It's a breaking news story. Tesla has launched best cow.

• 17:14David Sacks?

  In that beautiful lightning bottle, I just ordered my bottle of this like two seconds ago while we were doing the show.

• 17:20Jason Calacanis?

  Uh oh.

• 17:20David Sacks?

  And because this sold out in like two hours before. And now the the bottles of the original Tesla tequila go for like $2,000 now on eBay.

• 17:28Jason Calacanis?

  Breaking news.

• 17:29David Sacks?

  So get yours. Get yours now if it's still.

• 17:32Jason Calacanis?

  Smoking mess cow. There you go. Wait a second. Is this going to compete with the all in?

• 17:35David Sacks?

  A little bit, a little bit.

• 17:37Jason Calacanis?

  Uh oh. Well, it'll be all sold out by the time we launch our bottle.

• 17:41David Sacks?

  We're both going to be sold out.

• 17:42Jason Calacanis?

  We're both going to be sold out. Like, everybody can see that. Everybody can win. It's not a zero sum game. Everybody can secure the bag. All right, let's get into the docket. Enough of the self referential. Influencers now. Did you guys see my deck this month? We're all influencers. We're all influencers. Absolutely. Absolutely. There's a lot of federal regulation going on around AI as we know, regulatory capture. Shout out to our guy, Bill Gurley, who did a great talk last year about this. On Wednesday, the New York Times reported that the DOJ and the FTC had struck a deal on how to go after AI incumbents. Here's the terms of the deal. And again, this is all breaking. The DOJ gets to investigate whether Nvidia violated antitrust laws. They didn't specify what they're going after here, but

• 18:24Jason Calacanis?

  it could include the Nvidia use of CUDA software to lock customers into using their GPUs, or maybe how Nvidia distributes their GPUs to customers. There's a lot of regulation around that. And the FTC takes the lead on looking into OpenAI's conduct and Microsoft's AI deals. Obviously, there's been a ton of those, including aqua hires, etc. And then just this morning, the Wall Street Journal reported that the FTC had opened a probe into Microsoft's deal with Inflection AI. That's the one, if you remember, where they bought the staff and then did some fakka crazy commerce deal where they gave them a bunch of money, I guess, to bail out the investors. And that one is as conflicted up and down as you could possibly imagine. They note Microsoft structured that deal in a way that could avoid regulatory

• 19:06Jason Calacanis?

  scrutiny. You heard that here first, actually. We talked about this concept of a shadow aqua hire on this very program when we saw it, because we'd never seen a deal like that. It includes that $650 million licensing fee. All right, there's tons of other angles here. But let's start with you, Chamath. What are your thoughts on this regulatory capture and Nvidia's ascension? For those of you not watching.

• 19:32Jason Calacanis?

  It's almost become the largest market cap company in tech. Actually, today Nvidia passed Apple for a moment in time. So this is pretty crazy what we've seen with Nvidia. And here we go. Regulatory capture coming in hot. Chamath, your thoughts?

• 19:44Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I have two thoughts. They're sort of mixed emotions.

• 19:49Chamath Palihapitiya?

  The first is, I think the DOJ and the FTC are totally way out of their ski tips on this. This is a totally nascent industry. We don't have any good examples of end user use cases, either in the enterprise or amongst consumers. We only have 18 months of spend history. It is true that we've spent probably 750 billion to a trillion dollars collectively now

• 20:15Jason Calacanis?

  Yep.

• 20:15Chamath Palihapitiya?

  on things with the AI label. But it is also true that that's probably generated less than $10 billion in revenue. So I don't see what they're exactly investigating in an extremely immature market where we haven't yet seen one cycle of boom and bust so that we know what we're actually dealing with. So it's way too premature and it's just people afraid and tilting at minmills. The second part, the part that's mixed, though, is we are seeing a clever form of deal making that these huge hyperscalers are doing to work around the traditional constraints that you've had on businesses.

• 20:55Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Jason, you and I worked at AOL in a moment where AOL paid a very dear cost for essentially round tripping revenue.

• 21:03Jason Calacanis?

  Yep.

• 21:04Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Microsoft had to go through a huge DOJ inquiry and a settlement decree. And they were in the penalty box for most of Steve Ballmer's tenure as a CEO.

• 21:14Jason Calacanis?

  A lost decade, yeah.

• 21:15Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And the handcuffs came off when Satya took over that business.

• 21:20Chamath Palihapitiya?

  So I think what I'm trying to say is folks have become extremely sophisticated at replacing round tripping with these complicated TAC 2.0, whatever you want to call it, credit-oriented deals. They'll finance you to buy their own chips. All of this stuff has to be scrutinized a little bit more. So that part I support. But all of a sudden, launching an antitrust investigation makes no sense. So I really think the inquiry should be coming from the SEC about, is this real revenue?

• 21:51Jason Calacanis?

  That's actually the key issue. And this goes to Chamath, what we talked about. Like, let's, if we're going to police something, tactics make sense, not future competition, which has been Lina Khan's sort of approach to this. And she's only going to be in the position for another couple of months if the election goes the way it's going. So this might all be moot. Freeberry, I want to get your thoughts on this. We had that great talk, 2,851 miles from Bill and regulatory capture at the summit. You can look, it would be in the show notes. If you haven't seen it, it's great talk. Freeberry, your thoughts on this?

• 22:23David Friedberg?

  I don't know what regulatory capture in video. Are you talking about regulatory capture of Nvidia?

• 22:29Jason Calacanis?

  Just regulatory capture in the framing of AI. Is it too early? Hey, we're like in the, we're not even in the first inning here, and already we're going to start investigating everybody. And it just seems premature.

• 22:42David Friedberg?

  One of the silly aspects is they just passed this law in California. Newsom warns against perils of overregulating AI.

• 22:52Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, good.

• 22:54David Friedberg?

  Governor Newsom warned on Wednesday against stifling the burgeoning AI sector. I mean, Newsom is well informed by the tech community. So I don't think he, and he's also an intelligent person. So I don't think he kind of, you know, fall quickly in line on this one. But the way that the statutes were written is there's a definition on the size of a model, which in and of itself is very quickly changing. As we know, we've seen recently significant reductions in model size that actually improve performance overall of the model for specific applications. And it's very likely we end up seeing a lot of more smaller targeted models being used in specific applications instead of one massive general purpose model being used, or networks of smaller models, which is what really where I think the industry is going. And if that's where things go, then this statute doesn't

• 23:39David Friedberg?

  even matter. It makes no sense anymore. And that shows you, I think, how quickly things are changing. They go and they get, quote, experts' opinions. In a couple of months, those experts come back, they're like, here is the size of a model that you need to be regulating. And then the legislators run, and they write the code, they pass the statute, and all of a sudden, it doesn't even make sense anymore. So yes, I don't think we really know where this technology is all falling out at this point. And I think it's very difficult to have the government kind of reach in too quickly. To try and identify what they should and shouldn't be allowing to happen from a free market perspective.

• 24:13Jason Calacanis?

  Your thoughts, David Sacks, especially in light of the fact that it's looking like we're going to have some regime change in Washington and the FTC is going to turn over, obviously, if that happens.

• 24:24David Sacks?

  Well, look, I agree with you guys that this is just too soon to be opening these investigations. It's true that OpenAI and Nvidia have leads in their respective markets, but that's all it is at this point. It's way too early in the development of these markets to say that these are clearly monopolists. There's still a lot of competition going on. If a few years from now Nvidia still has whatever 85, 90% market share and no one's even close to catching up, then maybe you consider it a monopolist. Same thing with OpenAI, but it just seems very early to be rushing into investigations of these companies. I mean, the AI market is what 18 months old, two years old maybe at most?

• 25:05Jason Calacanis?

  I'd say two is a good way to look at it.

• 25:07David Sacks?

  Yeah, so it's just very early to be doing this. Look, I think this is of a piece with, remember that executive order or whatever that, remember when the White House issued that 100-page-plus executive order on AI regulation? We covered it on the show and we also thought that was too soon. And we thought that if the internet had been regulated in that way in circa 1995 or 1997, it never would have blossomed the way that it did. You know, you want to give these markets some time to play out before you bring down the heavy hand of regulation on them. So it just seems to me like the administration is getting carried away here with this desire to regulate this new space.

• 25:50David Sacks?

  And I mean, frankly, it's of a piece with, I would say, an innovation-hostile agenda. You also have the attacks on crypto. You just had Biden veto a bill that would have finally given crypto a regulatory framework in the US. It passed with 60 votes in the Senate, including Democrats like Chuck Schumer, and it still wasn't good enough. Oh, and it was based on a framework I think that came from the SEC.

• 26:15Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah.

• 26:16David Sacks?

  But Biden is basically in the With Warren camp that he's going to give no quarter to crypto. So you've got hostility to AI, you've got hostility to crypto, you've got hostility to M and A. No one can get an M and A deal through right now. You put all these things together, plus you've got hostility to options as compensation in terms of the 25% unrealized gains tax. You add up all these things. And again, I think this is an agenda that does not benefit Silicon Valley at all.

• 26:46Jason Calacanis?

  Well, and if you want to understand why people are coming to your fundraiser tonight, if you put all this together, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that if you're a venture capitalist or an entrepreneur and you want to see M and A and you want to see entrepreneurship and you want to see your companies thrive, you want to see your employees get rich and have options. Biden is basically handing the election to Trump.

• 27:05David Sacks?

  It's like he's doing everything he can to basically alienate Silicon Valley.

• 27:09Jason Calacanis?

  And capitalism.

• 27:10David Sacks?

  And you're exactly right.

• 27:11Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And innovation, I wouldn't even say it's Silicon Valley. It's like if you're going to go and build things that are at the bleeding edge.

• 27:18Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah.

• 27:19Chamath Palihapitiya?

  You know, the government used to be the, the most critical supporter of that. Right? If you think about space or defense, these were areas, the internet itself. The government was the partner of private industry to make sure that there was no regulation. And that like really, really forward looking innovation could happen. That's should be their role.

• 27:37Jason Calacanis?

  And this speaks to this decel versus acceleration movement that we see here in Silicon Valley. And this is what we see in Texas, Florida, UAE. Riyadh, DOA, there are places in the world, Singapore, where people are accelerating innovation. And this is what humans want, not just entrepreneurs, not just venture capitals, all of us want to see an acceleration of innovation. Everybody wants to see prosperity. And if you put yourself up as the decel candidate, we're not going to allow M and A, we're going to screw with options, we're going to do all this stuff. People are just not going to vote for you and people want crypto legal. So take the memo. I mean, this, I mean, the fact that the Democrats can't field a candidate that aligns with

• 28:20Jason Calacanis?

  the what humanity wants is absolutely mind boggling. This is why I think Biden's getting hot swapped this month. You heard it here first. He's got, no, Gavin is going to be running for president. It's going to be Trump and Gavin. They are hot swapping Biden after this first debate. Biden is going to get demolished by Trump in the debate. It's going to be elder abuse. He's getting wiped out and hot swapped. You heard it here first.

• 28:44David Sacks?

  Well, there's a lot of conspiracy theorists online who agree with you. A lot of tit for tat speculation that he's gonna get switcheroo.

• 28:52Jason Calacanis?

  Hot swap.

• 28:53David Sacks?

  But look, I mean, I think you make the correct point, which is, you know, I didn't really think about it this way, but you're right. Biden is the D cell candidate. And

• 29:01Jason Calacanis?

  Nobody wants that.

• 29:02David Sacks?

  Also, Trump has shown a learning curve where he recently has been saying positive things about crypto.

• 29:08Jason Calacanis?

  Yep.

• 29:08David Sacks?

  And he's always, I think, been more pro economic growth. He was a real estate developer from the private sector. He actually understands the economy. So there's no question that he would be more pro innovation, much more pro innovation than Biden. And to your point about this is one of the reasons why people are coming to the fundraiser. I had someone from the campaign said something very interesting to me. She said that we've never seen this many new donors.

• 29:32Jason Calacanis?

  Yes.

• 29:32David Sacks?

  At an event before. So we're turning out the new donors for this reason.

• 29:38Jason Calacanis?

  Yes.

• 29:38David Sacks?

  And, you know, we're not going to be intimidated by people calling us names, you know, it's like, look, in any normal election. People in an industry would vote for the candidate who they see as most aligned.

• 29:51Jason Calacanis?

  Yes.

• 29:52David Sacks?

  With what is good for them, their families, their industry.

• 29:55Jason Calacanis?

  If you made a list, let's just make the list here right now. Make the list of things Trump is in support of, right? And Republicans are in support of right now. They're going to be pro M and A. They're going to be pro crypto. They're going to be pro less taxes. They're going to be pro law and order. You know what? That's where I align. Those are the things I want. So if you just list the issues for me, despite how I might feel about Trump and some of the things he's done. He checks off all my boxes. He checks off all my boxes. And I think that's what's happening here. And, you know, people were scared to come out and say, this person checks off all my boxes. The Democrats need to realize they're out of sync with America. They're out of sync with powerful people in America, especially the donor base. They're the D cell candidate party now.

• 30:38Jason Calacanis?

  And they just have to flip this thinking. They're going to get demolished. It is going to be a landslide at this point. People want jobs and prosperity.

• 30:47David Sacks?

  From your lips to God's ears.

• 30:50Jason Calacanis?

  Do the hot swap. I mean.

• 30:52David Sacks?

  I don't really have a lot more to say.

• 30:53Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, no, just take the win. Take the win. And crypto is such an obvious win. And you know what? Trump's anti-EV right now? He's been wailing on EVs. I guarantee you that's the next thing. I bet you next week he comes out, next week, within the next two weeks, here's my prediction. Trump says, you know what? EV is not so bad. Remember, he's been saying EVs, nobody wants these things, we're subsidizing. I bet you next week, or maybe in 30 days, I'm making a prediction here, you bank the prediction, in 30 days, Trump comes out magically in support of EVs.

• 31:24David Sacks?

  Well, I just think that his point is that people shouldn't be forced to buy EVs.

• 31:28Jason Calacanis?

  Right.

• 31:29David Sacks?

  I mean, I don't think he's against them per se. I think he's against people being forced. Look, I think that what the new administration, hopefully, or what Trump should propose, is effectively a modus vivendi with big tech, where the point is that if you stop censoring our people, if you stop censoring conservatives, if you restore the civil liberties of the average American to say what they want online, to basically bank online, to stop essentially deplatforming and censoring people, then we will let you innovate, we'll let you do M and A, we'll let you get back to business. That basically is the basis for a peace agreement between big tech and the Republican Party.

• 32:09Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah. And by the way, I'd say in the next 30 to 60 days, you're going to see 10 incredibly high-profile people come out in support of Trump if Biden isn't swapped out. And when I say high-profile, I have the inside line on this extremely high-profile people, not just Doug Leone, not just David Sacks and Chamath Palatia. It is going to be about 10 high-profile people who are much higher profile, respectfully, than Chamath and Sacks and Doug Leone. So just wait for it, folks. You cannot be a decelerist in, you know, this world. Let's keep moving. Roaring Kitty, AKA Keith Gill, just disclosed a nine-figure position in GameStop. Yes, we're back to where this podcast started. We're talking about GameStop

• 32:49Jason Calacanis?

  and stocks, as crazy as it is. And E-Trade is considering suspending his account. This is going to take a little bit of background. I apologize here. I don't mean to monopolize. They're deplatforming him. Here we go again. Quick background. You remember the first basically viral moment for this podcast, this AI moment, I remember I was in Tahoe skiing, was the GameStop saga back in 2021. Thousands of retail investors following this individual, Keith Gill. Were posting in this subreddit called Wall Street Bets, if you're not familiar, and they created a massive short squeeze and they sent the stock flying. Robin Hood halted the trading. Remember, Vlad came on, that one all went crazy. We covered that all. And then Keith Gill went silent for the past three years on Twitter

• 33:33Jason Calacanis?

  and Reddit. He said nothing. Then on May 12th, he posted this meme on X, which has been viewed 28 million times. Now, if you don't know this meme, this is the lean forward meme when you've got a game controller in your hand. It is a way to signal like, hey, we're getting to the boss level. It's going to get exciting. Here's your GameStop chart, folks. You see that first peak? That's when we reported on it back in 2021. And here we go again. It just had a slow ride down for three years and bing, popped up again. So, GameStop's stock tripled at the posting of that meme. Why is this important? Well, he has a huge position. He increased it from 200,000 shares, basically to 5 million,

• 34:18Jason Calacanis?

  had 120,000 call options. Jim Ma will comment on all this in a moment. If he exercised all these calls, Gill could own an additional 12 million shares. Here's Gary Gensler, who was on CNBC Wednesday, trying to like calm the markets down and or try to get control of this craziness. Here's the clip.

• 34:37Speaker 06

  I say to you, look, I want to put up a, I want to put up a cryptogram. And it's of a chair leaning up, which we know from video game playing means, come on, this is the ninth inning, get ready. And we know that I'm a person who happens to like the stock of GameStop. This is the single, come on, get ready. Is this something hypothetically that is that the SEC should worry about?

• 35:00Speaker 07

  Look, again, it's not so hypothetical because you're describing things that are in the public domain and in the public is, is, you know, interested in. So, but generally speaking, you have to make sure that you don't mislead the public and that you don't in any way do things in the markets that may be manipulative or misleading.

• 35:27Speaker 07

  And so that's the key thing in our capital markets.

• 35:29Speaker 06

  No, the key thing is if you can cure it with disclosure, this is brand ice. You know, if they disclose that this is something that they call action, then you can't go after them.

• 35:38Speaker 07

  Disclosure is one really key part of our capital markets. When you buy the stock of a company, you expect that they give you full and fair disclosure. That's, by the way, not what you're getting right now in this crypto field. So I just, you know, cautionary tale there. That disclosure, but disclosure doesn't necessarily protect a bad actor if they're manipulating a market.

• 36:04Jason Calacanis?

  Chama, you've been, you've had a lot of comments on the markets and specifically this one over the years. What are your thoughts? Is posting this meme stock manipulation or disclosure?

• 36:17Chamath Palihapitiya?

  No, he's posting a meme.

• 36:19Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, thank you.

• 36:21Chamath Palihapitiya?

  He put a picture on the internet.

• 36:23Jason Calacanis?

  Okay.

• 36:24Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I mean, again, this is like the problem that we have, which is that he disclosed his position in a different way. Now, we don't know whether that disclosure is accurate because I think it was just a screenshot of like some statement inside of a Reddit thread, right? And then that got posted many times elsewhere. Is this accurate? I don't know. Because he has no obligation as an individual to do any of this stuff. Because he's not running a hedge fund and he's not running other people's money. Now, if he was acting in concert with other people, you could say, hey, hold on a second. If you're repping not just your money, but other people's money and you did this, then there's probably a disclosure obligation there.

• 37:07Chamath Palihapitiya?

  But at the end of the day, this is a guy that acted and

• 37:15Chamath Palihapitiya?

  basically created hype. And right now, the SEC does not have a framework to deal with that. Because the rules that existed didn't understand social media and whatnot. And he's also not a regulated entity. He's just an individual. Now, if it turns out that he was selling while he was posting this stuff and trying to manipulate the market in some way, obviously they could find issue with that.

• 37:43Chamath Palihapitiya?

  But just for him being a credible influencer and creating momentum for an underlying position, that in and of itself is not illegal.

• 37:54Jason Calacanis?

  Sax, I think we have to go to Judge Sax here. Judge Sax, what is your verdict? Are memes, stock manipulation? Judge Sax?

• 38:01David Sacks?

  No, I don't see any manipulation there. Like Jamal said, he's just posting a meme.

• 38:06Jason Calacanis?

  Not guilty.

• 38:07David Sacks?

  Not guilty. What I see in that clip is Jim Cramer trying to stir up an SEC investigation of Keith Gill. For what? I mean, what exactly has he done here? This is kind of...

• 38:18Chamath Palihapitiya?

  The Wall Street Journal as well. If you look at the Wall Street Journal today, there's an entire article basically with the headline, "Is What Keith Gill Is Doing Illegal?" And I think you can view this in a different lens, which is here is an individual that is totally outside of the establishment, that however he's done it, has gotten a hold of hundreds of millions of dollars, maybe even now billions if the stock keeps going. And I think that that, for the establishment that controls those pipes, very disconcerting.

• 38:49David Sacks?

  Right. If he was one of those apex predators on Wall Street, if he was one of those major hedge funds that donates a lot of money to the political elite, in other words, if he was a well-connected political player, I doubt anyone would be asking these questions.

• 39:05Jason Calacanis?

  Friedberg, you got thoughts on this? Market manipulation or memes, stonk, fun, good times? You're buying GameStop, you're buying AMC, like buyer beware, you're in on the joke. What are your thoughts?

• 39:19David Friedberg?

  Nick, can you pull up the image? I'm going to talk about the stupidity of buying the stock of this company at this valuation. This is a company, and then I think we can talk about whether that's even relevant, which I think indication is it's not. GameStop finished the year.

• 39:39David Friedberg?

  2023 fiscal year with

• 39:44David Friedberg?

  sales of 5.3 billion, down from 5.9 billion the year before. So, sales declined by 12% in the year.

• 39:52Jason Calacanis?

  They have $5 billion in revenue selling games?

• 39:55David Friedberg?

  Adjusted EBITDA for the year was $65 million and they have about 1.2 billion in cash. Currently, as of today, the market cap is about 13.5 billion dollars. So, that makes it about a 12.5 billion dollar enterprise value. 12.5 billion divided by 65 million of EBITDA means that this stock is currently trading at about 192 times EBITDA. A business that is profitable and you can say that the profits are stable and predictable and is likely not going to grow very much will typically trade for 7 to 12 times EBITDA. And the stock is trading at 192 times EBITDA and the revenue is declining 12% a year.

• 40:35David Friedberg?

  So, I'll just point out, like, I don't think that there's anything about the actual performance of the underlying business in the security that you are buying or selling when you were making a decision about whether or not to buy or sell this security. And I think that that's the real question. It does that even matter? Clearly, it doesn't. Let people have fun. Let them go to Vegas. Let them play in the roulette table. They know what they're getting into. The disclosures are all there. All the SEC filings are there. All the financials of this business are there. What you're actually buying is publicly viewable. You can look at it. You can make an investment decision as an individual investor and trader. And you want to blow your money trying to see when the social trends are going to shift one way or another? Let it be your decision.

• 41:16Jason Calacanis?

  I think this is well said. If you're buying NFTs, if you're buying stonks like this, if you're playing poker in a if you're playing bomb pots, look it up, folks, if you don't know what bomb pots are. And you're going crazy playing bomb pots for eight hours like we did the other week. You're there to gamble. If you are playing bomb pots, if this is the bomb pots of the stock market, have fun, go crazy. If you're buying NFTs, if you're buying crypto and the latest token, you know what you're getting into.

• 41:45David Friedberg?

  There's no law. There's no law that defines why. You should or should not buy a security with respect to the diligence you have individually done to determine whether the underlying business is worth the price you're paying. Yes. The law says that the businesses that are listing their securities for public trading have an obligation to make disclosures on their financials and any other material events to the public and they do that through the SEC filing process. That's all out there and then what you as an individual do with it is up to you.

• 42:13Jason Calacanis?

  Enough with the nanny state. Go ahead, Sax.

• 42:16David Sacks?

  So when's the right time to put a short on this company?

• 42:19David Friedberg?

  By the way, today there's all these the stock is up 40% today. And then there's these reports that came out yesterday on a bunch of very big hedge funds that put very big short positions yesterday on the stock and it's up 40% today. So they're all going to get margin called. So this is where you see the same thing that happened last time where, what was that guy's name?

• 42:39David Friedberg?

  The capital, uh, what's that guy's name?

• 42:41Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Melvin.

• 42:41David Friedberg?

  Melvin Capital.

• 42:44David Friedberg?

  Gay plot.

• 42:46David Friedberg?

  Someone's going to get blown out on the wrong side of this.

• 42:48Jason Calacanis?

  You're going to get plotkins.

• 42:53Jason Calacanis?

  Don't get plotkinned in a Saramucci.

• 42:55Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Yeah.

• 42:56Jason Calacanis?

  That's what you don't want to do because you could lose it all in a Saramucci or two.

• 42:59David Sacks?

  It's basically a game where, you know, the reditors are, they bid up, they bid up the stock.

• 43:05Jason Calacanis?

  Yes.

• 43:06David Sacks?

  To levels that realistically it's not worth that much.

• 43:09Jason Calacanis?

  Disconnected from reality.

• 43:10David Sacks?

  It basically creates a short squeeze. So the stock flies up.

• 43:14Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah.

• 43:15David Sacks?

  Then the hedge funds know it's overvalued, so they basically put new shorts on.

• 43:19Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah.

• 43:20David Sacks?

  And then they do the next short squeeze.

• 43:21Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And they'll do something that's even more dangerous, which is they can get synthetically short. So they'll, they'll add leverage to this using all kinds of esoteric derivatives that other banks on Wall Street will happily sell them. And then when those are disclosed, then the reditors can just pump it even more, which causes massive margin calls. So I think the thing that Friedberg, you're saying though, this is this existential thing that comes back. It's happened in NFTs, it's happened in the dot com bubble, it happened in Sacks, it's happened in crypto. Are we supposed to protect people? And then the question is, who is the we? And are you supposed to say, if you're an adult and you can read, then read the disclosures and you're on your own? That's what the SEC says. And that's what the rule of law has been.

• 44:06Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And so this is going to be an interesting test because instead of an organization, it's going to be a person, in this case Keith Gill, who will be the face of what happens to the stock. Because if a bunch of people all of a sudden plow into this thing and then it goes to five, it'll be really interesting to see the reaction. Hey, you should have saved us. How could this happen? You know, he dumped this on all of us. And the answer is, no, he did not.

• 44:29David Friedberg?

  Where was the government to save our day? Where was the government to protect consumers?

• 44:32Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Enough with the nanny state.

• 44:34David Friedberg?

  That's the next cycle of this story. The next cycle of the story is-

• 44:36Chamath Palihapitiya?

  No, the government did. And you showed how the government protected everybody, which was you showed the revenue and the profits and the margins, which is publicly available.

• 44:45David Sacks?

  And you did it in two minutes. I mean, anybody, anybody can look at your analysis and see.

• 44:51Chamath Palihapitiya?

  You didn't even use a sophisticated model. You used probably the calculator app on your frickin' Mac to figure out that it was 192 times. He did the back of the envelope. No, no, no, I'm sure he used the calculator app. And so you- Actually, I have the Casio. The whole point is, you can figure out that there's no logical justification for this company using one Google search and the calculator app on your Mac.

• 45:13David Friedberg?

  Yeah.

• 45:14Chamath Palihapitiya?

  It's on you.

• 45:15David Friedberg?

  I think the question is, should we make all sports betting legal and all online casinos legal? So if you follow this to its natural conclusion, let people do what they want. Why are all of the other gambling industries so tightly regulated?

• 45:28David Sacks?

  No, I think there's a big difference. I think there's a big difference. Well, because we need a stock market. We need, we need the ability for companies to go public. It just so happens that you can get this weird effect where some stocks can become meme stocks. But that doesn't mean you want to design the entire- System of securities laws around one or two meme stocks. The fact of the matter is that investors are sufficiently protected by robust disclosure requirements that apparently GameStop has followed. All that information is out there. You basically dismantled the company in like two minutes. So anyone watching this show has all the information they need not to buy this stock at 190 times earnings. Okay.

• 46:13David Sacks?

  If they choose to follow that information.

• 46:16Chamath Palihapitiya?

  The other thing that you're saying, which is really important is you have to remember what the capital markets and the stock market is there for. It's not meant for this. This is a small little cul-de-sac, but the overwhelming majority of the capital markets and the equity markets is to allocate excess capital to good ideas. That's what is usually happening. There's a bunch of us that will put a bunch of our money into things because we think it's the right thing to do. And that is the overwhelming majority of what is happening in the stock market every day. And David's right. Every now and then, one of these things randomly comes up and every period of time, there'll be a few parts of the market that go crazy. But the reality is that's not what the overwhelming majority of the actions and that's not why the securities laws are there.

• 46:59David Friedberg?

  Have you guys seen this guy? His name is Tim Nackey on Instagram. So what this guy did, this guy's incredible. So this guy went out and he basically bet 10 cents in online blackjack because he's legally allowed to do it where he lives. I think he's in Australia or something.

• 47:14Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Oh, yeah.

• 47:14David Friedberg?

  That's 10 cents for every follower he has on Instagram. So over the last couple of months, he's been, yeah, he's been racking and racking up the bets and he ended up doing these hundred thousand dollar plus bets because he got to over a million followers. He ran this thing up to over a million bucks and he quit. But it's, it's now he's formed like a blackjack syndicate. So everyone wants to kind of pile in and bet with him. I think that there's this really interesting phenomenon of like social betting. Everyone wants to be in a group together. He's got hundreds of thousands of people that have put money in.

• 47:41Chamath Palihapitiya?

  This is so great.

• 47:42David Friedberg?

  And then he goes and does this online gambling. Nick, pull the video up. I just sent you. Watch how this guy, and he's so entertaining. He's awesome.

• 47:47Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Oh, man. This is, this could be deadly for Saks. Saks didn't know about this.

• 47:51Speaker 08

  72 going to blackjack and betting 10 cents for your Instagram follower. There are 940,000 of your weapons with us now. So a $94,000 bet coming right up. Alrighty ladies and gentlemen, we have a $94,000

• 48:05David Friedberg?

  Let's go, let's go.

• 48:06Speaker 08

  On the line for the 940,000 of your weapons with us. 90 on the button, 2K. Each of the side bets, this bloke definitely gloves up both hands on the golf course. Never has a perfect hand, still has such an impact on my life. I'm not healthy. Fourth gross. Seven versus six. Ah, that might be a double down. There might be a double down.

• 48:27David Friedberg?

  What are we doing Sax? Are we doubling down Sax? What are we doing?

• 48:28Speaker 08

  I'll take three.

• 48:29David Sacks?

  That's a double down.

• 48:30David Friedberg?

  Double down, double down. Yeah. Yeah, definitely double down.

• 48:34Speaker 08

  God damn, you go 10 for me here.

• 48:36David Friedberg?

  Of course, we're counting cards.

• 48:37Speaker 08

  18, we'll take the 18. We will take the goddamn 18. And pray to these punting lords. A glorious day for the 10-10 on. Can I get the job done again? That'll go.

• 48:49David Friedberg?

  Oh, 17.

• 48:50Speaker 08

  Go, go, yeah, the Macbook. You little [bleep] beauty. I will see you tomorrow, you smug son of a [bleep].

• 49:00David Friedberg?

  Oh my god, this is so great. This guy is so good. Sax, do you know about this?

• 49:05David Sacks?

  That's some serious degeneracy. It looks so fun though.

• 49:08David Friedberg?

  Look at Sax.

• 49:10David Friedberg?

  All in syndicate, let's go, let's back Sax. One hand a day.

• 49:13David Sacks?

  There's only one a day? Oh my god.

• 49:16David Friedberg?

  And every day his follower count goes up. So every day he bets more. And then your follow, and he ran this thing up to a million a profit. Oh, so good. I haven't seen Sax this awake during the pod.

• 49:25Chamath Palihapitiya?

  You don't get the 10 cents. He keeps it from so.

• 49:27David Friedberg?

  He started this just by betting his own money. And he would put 10 cents down every day for how many followers he had. And so he, he started betting more and more of his own money. So now he's got a follower count that he can monetize.

• 49:37Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Is it still all of his money that he's betting?

• 49:39David Friedberg?

  So then as of a few weeks ago, or like two weeks ago, he stopped betting his own money. He took the million off the table. He called it a day and he set up a syndicate. And now people send their own money in and now he's betting the syndicate's money. I love this. And so everyone tuned in and he does one hand a day and he keeps racking this thing up. It's just.

• 49:54Chamath Palihapitiya?

  But what happens when he loses? Is there a day where he's lost a lot of money?

• 49:57David Friedberg?

  Oh dude, you gotta watch it. Man, that was a good losing video. It's so funny.

• 50:00Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I want to see what happens when he loses like a big number.

• 50:02David Friedberg?

  Can we get this guy at the all in summit? He plays online blackjack, right? So there's always like a fake dealer and he has all this hilarious commentary on the fake dealer, what they look like. To set up an account in a VPN right now.

• 50:15Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I'll be honest with you, this may get me back on Instagram.

• 50:18Jason Calacanis?

  This is so juicy. We should get this guy out to the summit. This guy's got to come to the summit and do a live hand with Mr. Big shout out. Is he on TikTok or no? I think he only does Insta. Yeah, Tim Nack. I haven't seen Sax listen to Friedberg on this podcast more than he just did. That was incredible. You got Sax's attention. Sax, did you know you could play live online blackjack from your phone? Did you know this?

• 50:43David Sacks?

  Do not, do not know that.

• 50:44Jason Calacanis?

  This is important information for all of us.

• 50:46Speaker 08

  Big day coming up. There is 514,000 of you in here now and a $51,400 bid coming up. All right, day 60, a monumental day. We can hit the 50K button here. We will do. $50,000 on the button. We'll go $800 on the 21 plus 3, $600 on the perfect pairs. This is by far and away the biggest bet I have put on a table in my life. We're trying to itch ourselves into gambling immortality. 14 plus 3. No. Oh, it's a disgusting pull on day 60 with all the marbles on the line. We will stand and look for Tintin and bust. Tintin and bust. Tintin and bust.

• 51:29Jason Calacanis?

  Come on, Tintin, Tintin.

• 51:30Speaker 08

  For Heroics to be a hero again. Yes, yes, yes. Day 60, stick that in your pipe and smoke it. Holy, we pulled it off. Oh my God. We've broken the push streak with the adventures of Tintin. And you better believe that means I'll see you tomorrow and I'll be bidding even more.

• 51:51Jason Calacanis?

  This guy's got great energy. Can he do one live on the show next week? Oh, day 55. Oh, here we go.

• 51:56Speaker 08

  Here we go. Three Instagram follower. I've got outrageously, there is an extra 21,000 of you in here today. So 37,600 dollar bid going on for the 376,000 of you legends in here now. Coming right up. Okay, day 55 brings about a big goddamn bid. We have $36,000 on the button, 1,000 on the 21 plus 3, and $600 on the perfect pairs. 37.6K total. Bits are closed. We've just had a goddamn dealer change. We've been duped here. I'm calling, I'm calling the commissioner. So two plays a oh 12 V King. Oh my God, before I before I hit the hit button, I will say this, having talked to the morning rumble this morning.

• 52:39Speaker 08

  Uh, last time I spoke to the media about this journey, I I broke a six day winning streak that day and I lost. So if it happens again today, this one's on Roger Farrelly. We need to see eight or nine go low. No. Oh my God.

• 52:53Jason Calacanis?

  Come on, that dealer change was so dirty.

• 52:56Speaker 08

  I guess you just can't win them all, but we've been on some run and I will see you tomorrow. When we'll be bidding even more.

• 53:04Jason Calacanis?

  That dealer change was so dirty. You saw the dealer change at the last minute. He came up and they changed the dealer.

• 53:09David Sacks?

  They've done that to me before.

• 53:10Jason Calacanis?

  I've I've been with you when they've done that. They do that every time with you. When you start running it up, they send in the dealer to ice you.

• 53:16David Sacks?

  I think there's a particular dealer they've got, you know, they they it's like in the bullpen.

• 53:21Jason Calacanis?

  The blank cooler.

• 53:22David Sacks?

  Yeah.

• 53:23Jason Calacanis?

  We know the one, the blank cooler. I don't want to say anything, but it's the cooler. We need this guy next week on the pod to do the live bet and then we each give him 5K. How about that? You guys in?

• 53:33Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I've had them trot out the cooler when I was playing craps once. I was so mad. And I was on such a heater. And what happens is. You guys have seen me play craps where it's like, it's all rhythm, right? So it's like, I get the dice in a certain way.

• 53:47Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah.

• 53:48Chamath Palihapitiya?

  You know, I do that. And then they bring in this guy and he was like a klutz. It's like Daniel Day Lewis in my left foot. All of a sudden, he's everything is spilling everywhere.

• 53:58Jason Calacanis?

  Four dice fall off the table.

• 54:00Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I got so out of rhythm. I cracked up the. It was so, I was so mad.

• 54:05Jason Calacanis?

  In the pod next week, we're each putting five dimes in. We got 20K from all in. Let's do it. That would be so much juice.

• 54:11David Sacks?

  We should get him to play a special all in hand and let him run up our capital.

• 54:16Jason Calacanis?

  On the summit, let's take the profits from the summit into a live hand. We could put like a million bucks each on it. We double up and then we're done with the pod. We don't have to do a summit next year.

• 54:24Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Really good idea, Justin. Really, really good idea.

• 54:27Jason Calacanis?

  Let's let it roll. All right. God, and this is so much action for us. I don't know if we can continue, but there's more stories to come. And just buyer beware. I mean, if you're betting on this stuff, I mean, what do we have to tell you? If you're betting on GameStop?

• 54:41Chamath Palihapitiya?

  No, we don't have to tell you anything. You're an adult.

• 54:43Jason Calacanis?

  You're an adult.

• 54:43Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Go to your own job.

• 54:45Jason Calacanis?

  Well, here's something really interesting.

• 54:47Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Put on your seatbelt.

• 54:49Jason Calacanis?

  Put on your big boy pants.

• 54:50Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Don't drink and drive. Don't use drugs. That means like, all of a sudden, like, we need to govern how you're not a functioning adult.

• 54:57Jason Calacanis?

  By the way, if you swim in Cape Cod alone, in the deep water, in the kelp bed, you might get hit by a great white shark.

• 55:03Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Or do whatever you want, and please just take responsibility for yourself, because it's not our job.

• 55:07Jason Calacanis?

  Absolutely.

• 55:08Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I'm responsible for my children, not you.

• 55:10Jason Calacanis?

  Well, I mean, also, I just want to ask one question here. Is there anything with the short selling that could, there could be more disclosure on that, Chamath, just if the SEC was going to do something? I hear that bubble up once in a while. Should short sellers be more disclosed?

• 55:23Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I really think that's a very good idea. I do think that there are some short sellers who are doing it because they have to hedge a position that they have. But then there are other short sellers who are doing it speculatively. And there are synthetic instruments that banks will sell you to go massively super short. That's how you can get a situation where 140% of the stock is sold short, which shouldn't make sense. If there's only 100 shares of a company, how could it be that 140 shares are sold short? It's because you can have these synthetic derivatives.

• 55:51Jason Calacanis?

  Explain synthetic for the audience, because I don't think people know this concept.

• 55:53Chamath Palihapitiya?

  So there are ways where if you have a formal trading relationship with Wall Street, and you need to be of a certain size, and they go through a diligence process, they give you, so you know, I have one, called an ISDA. And it's essentially an account and a framework that you negotiate with a bank, that allows you to call them and say, hey, give me A, B, or C. And other times, they'll call you and say, hey, I have this really interesting way to play XYZ. And one of the things that you can do with them is you can say, listen, I want to go super, super long, or super, super short, a theme, or a company. And they'll create a contract between you and them.

• 56:35Chamath Palihapitiya?

  That'll allow you to get that kind of exposure. Now, you're not supposed to do that on a regular basis, nor are you supposed to lever this up. This is actually what blew up a different hedge fund called Archegos.

• 56:48Jason Calacanis?

  I remember, we covered it.

• 56:50Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And in that, I guess what happened was the gentleman was calling many banks. And doing all these things and one bank didn't know what the other bank was doing. So all of a sudden, there is this massive synthetic leverage that he was getting on, I think it was News Corp. stock. And then they found out that it was unwound, then he owed a bunch of money, he couldn't pay it, the whole thing shut down. The stock market went crazy. So there does need to be that disclosure, but there isn't a rule that says that. And every time somebody tries to introduce it, the broker dealers basically lobby and kill it.

• 57:21Jason Calacanis?

  So in a way, it's almost like a parallel universe where bets are occurring on outcomes in the stock market that are not tied to the stocks in the stock market.

• 57:30Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Well, it is tied in the sense that ultimately it all needs to feed back to an actual physical share. And so this is where all this price behavior gets further amplified. I think the point is that these forms of expressing risk.

• 57:41Jason Calacanis?

  Yes.

• 57:42Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Can really amplify what would otherwise happen. So in Friedberg's example, most people would sit there, get the financials. Some would maybe say historically, this thing looks like a short or I wouldn't even buy it at all. Right? But other people may say, well, if I listen to the chairman and I think about the future, maybe I go long. That's a, that's a fine thing. You can enter the stock market and do that. But all this other stuff amplifies all these things to a degree that we're not really used to.

• 58:08Jason Calacanis?

  And let's be honest, the people who are betting, I'll use the word betting here. The people who are betting on these things are not looking to get a 7% return or beat the average. I mean, they're looking to double their money in 48 hours. They know what they're getting in for. They're just walking up to the roulette table and putting 10K on black or red and then clapping and seeing five reds in a row and saying, oh, it's gotta be black next. I mean, they're Phil Hellmuthing this.

• 58:32Chamath Palihapitiya?

  They don't say that when they lose the money.

• 58:34Jason Calacanis?

  No, of course not. Yeah, no, no personal ownership here. Well, here's an interesting thing that's sort of related. A little bit of jurisdiction shopping or placing of.

• 58:44Jason Calacanis?

  Companies and products continues and Texas is very hot in this regard. BlackRock and Citadel are backing a new stock exchange to take on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ duopoly. So according to the Wall Street Journal, the exchange would be based in Texas and called the Texas Stock Exchange or the TXSE. They've raised 120 million so far. It seems like a low number. And the general pitch here is the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ have become expensive and they've been increasing their compliance costs. NASDAQ has a new board diversity target that went into effect at the start of this year, all the DEI stuff. And so this exchange is pitching itself as a CEO friendly and the anti-woke exchange.

• 59:25Jason Calacanis?

  So here's the planned timeline, file an SEC registration box later this year, start facilitating trades next year. Host the first new listing in 2026. Interesting, I guess that Citadel and BlackRock are in this group because they could bring a lot of business, obviously. And you know, some of this other stuff that's been going on with Texas, Texas is now Tesla's corporate headquarters. They moved from Palo Alto in California to Texas in 2021. Your thoughts here, Chamath, on moving?

• 59:51Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Love it.

• 59:52Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, why? Why do you love it so much, Chamath? Competition?

• 59:58Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I do think that it's hard right now for companies to get access to capital. I think more diverse and more flexible ways where smart investors can allocate their money into the ideas that they want are better. I think that the duopoly hasn't created enough competition. So the NASDAQ and New York Stock Exchange haven't innovated. And in fact, they've probably been a little regressive in terms of filing requirements, listing requirements, in terms of board composition. They've fallen for a bunch of things that don't actually point to the economic rationale or value in a company.

• 1:00:39Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And so I think if you have a third player, there's a chance that more competition will create more rational behavior, which will flow into the companies themselves. So I'm a huge fan of this. I think that the the stock exchanges right now are too brittle. And that large reason is because there's only two of them.

• 1:00:57Jason Calacanis?

  Friedberg, any thoughts for you about more options?

• 1:01:02David Friedberg?

  Well, I think part of this is actually, there's been these rules imposed by NASDAQ and New York Stock Exchange that have tried to enforce upon the listed companies rules and regulations that are not tied to securities laws, including some of these aspects of diversity of your board. And I know that there have been a lot of public company board members and CEOs that have quietly tried to push back on these rules, that they're imposing social systems upon, you know, what is effectively a regulated exchange. And so there's certainly like an interest and a pushing for a competitive marketplace for exchanges.

• 1:01:44David Friedberg?

  There was a survey done recently that showed, I got to find some of this data, but it showed the cost of going public on NASDAQ, AMEX or the New York Stock Exchange was about $7.4 million. Cost of going public through an over the counter bulletin board listing service was about $2 million. And then there's these additional kind of rules that are being imposed if you want to be listed on the big boards. So clearly there's interest and it's great to see a competitive market emerge. You know, by the way, there have been other attempts. There's that long term stock exchange. You guys remember that a couple of years ago?

• 1:02:16Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, that was, um.

• 1:02:17David Friedberg?

  That was incentivized long term holdings. There was two other equity security exchanges, efforts made in the last couple of years that didn't take off. So this isn't super novel in terms of like seeing a new challenger exchange step up, but I think. More competition is always better.

• 1:02:34Jason Calacanis?

  All right. In other news, Apple and OpenAI have reportedly struck an iPhone deal. According to Bloomberg, Apple is going to announce a major partnership with OpenAI at WWDC next week. ChatGPT will be integrated into iOS, which means Apple is outsourcing its AI chatbot, at least at the start. I guess you could argue it benefits both sides because OpenAI gets access to over a billion phone users and Apple gets a native integration of a top-tier language model. Terms are not clear, but most people think this is going to be a short to midterm deal with Apple building out its own AI chatbot in the future, but it's just not ready for primetime right now. Also plans to make Siri AI-powered and bring AI features to the Apple ecosystem.

• 1:03:14Jason Calacanis?

  You may have heard that Apple is going to try to let Siri dive deeper into apps, i.e. if you're ordering your DoorDash or Uber Eats or an Uber or Lyft or whatever, it might actually be able to execute those things inside of an app. Interesting line from the article, "Apple executives were concerned about reputational damage from a rogue chatbot. Some people within Apple have a philosophical aversion to having a chatbot at all." Very interesting. So thoughts on this Saks? Just getting you back in the loop here.

• 1:03:47David Sacks?

  Well, we kind of predicted that something like this could or should happen. We said that the big win for Apple in AI would be to make Siri actually work based on LLM. Because Siri just, you know, its understanding of languages historically has not been great and that's really limited the usefulness of it. Imagine if Siri worked with the conversational abilities of ChatGPT-4O. If it had that level of semantic understanding, if it could talk to you the way that 4O can talk to you, that would make Siri really powerful. And, you know, for me, Siri is a feature I've turned off because it's so annoying, but...

• 1:04:24Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, it sucks, right? Never works.

• 1:04:26David Sacks?

  If you give it the power of the best OpenAI model and then the speed of running it natively on the iPhone, I don't know what they're going to do about that, but presumably there are things they can do to speed it up. And then you give it access to... The internal APIs you're using to control apps, that could be really powerful.

• 1:04:46Jason Calacanis?

  Huge winner.

• 1:04:46David Sacks?

  Because now Siri could be an agent that you can just tell it to do things. And you know, not just ask like the weather and the time and set alarms.

• 1:04:54Jason Calacanis?

  Well, what's really interesting, I think, about this deal Chamath is Apple is having a hard time getting people to upgrade their phones, right? And people have lost faith in the stock. Now you say, hey, we're going to put a language model on here. You can make it a local language model and have it be privacy protected. So that means you need more memory on the phone. You're going to need another chip on the phone. It's going to, there's a distinct reason to upgrade now. If you had a language model on your phone and Siri was like this super Siri that actually got stuff done? I would upgrade my phone immediately. And right now I skipped two or three generations. What are your thoughts on this as a way to maybe reinvigorate the iPhone franchise to move? You buy it or not?

• 1:05:35Chamath Palihapitiya?

  No, the problem is that we don't know what the right form factor for a super scaled consumer AI app looks like. So we've all, again, I'm not trying to be a wet blanket. It's just that when you look at what's built so far, I think most of the things we've seen are the Friendster and MySpaces of this class of app. We haven't seen the Facebooks and the Instagrams yet. And the reason is because we haven't experimented and pushed the boundaries of the form factor. So for example, in the first phases of social networking,

• 1:06:14Chamath Palihapitiya?

  the idea that you would collect information about all your friends and then create something called a newsfeed was totally shocking. And I remember when we first released it, people got really upset. And then it just became this de facto.

• 1:06:27Jason Calacanis?

  Why were they upset about it? Tell me.

• 1:06:29Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Well, it's this idea that you collected this information and then you presented it about all of your friends was disconcerting initially as a feature. Now, if you don't have a newsfeed of some kind in your app, for many apps, it's DOA, right? So the same problem exists today. All we've done today is we've replicated an existing use case with a slightly better feature here or there.

• 1:06:52Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Nobody has gone out and said on a blank canvas, let me completely reimagine how consumers want value with these things to enable it. And until that happens, we're just wasting time. So the idea that Apple with this thousand dollar device is all of a sudden going to figure out that this is why you're going to upgrade. I think it's pretty speculative and I think they're going to be disappointed. I think people have realized that four generations ago was more than enough. And on top of this, the stuff that you value inside the iPhone is not what you're going to need for AI. So, you know, spending a trillion billion dollars on the fourth camera lens is not going to be what solves this problem.

• 1:07:37Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And so you're more likely to have a very simple earbud that is, you know, very inconspicuous and discreetly in your inner earwell, speaking information to you than you are, and with a companion five hundred dollar phone, than I think you will be with a fifteen hundred dollar iPhone.

• 1:07:54Jason Calacanis?

  You're in the new form factor. I, I'm going to take the other side of the cap. I think that because you have this data on your phone, all your iMessages, all your documents, all your photos, videos, music collection, there's a unique set of data on that phone to make your personal LLM. It's going to do extraordinary things for you because it's going to watch you and all your behavior on that phone. And man, if I could have a personal LLM that's been watching me order very specific sushi rolls or, you know, where I send my Ubers, what type of Ubers I like, what, what music I play. I feel like that LLM personalizes to me.

• 1:08:25Chamath Palihapitiya?

  My point is you don't need a fifteen hundred dollar device to do that. So if you spend fifteen hundred dollars.

• 1:08:29Jason Calacanis?

  The data set is so cool. Don't you agree that the data set is so cool?

• 1:08:33Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Uber has the data, DoorDash has the data.

• 1:08:35Jason Calacanis?

  No, no, you're missing my point. The data of me clicking on the screen, that pattern.

• 1:08:40Chamath Palihapitiya?

  That is not Apple's to collect. It's not, they're not allowed.

• 1:08:42Jason Calacanis?

  I think they'll collect it, put it in there and encrypt it.

• 1:08:45Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Fundamentally change the SDK. The idea then that Apple can take a tax on that is outrageous. I think the whole app economy would blow up if Apple tried to do that.

• 1:08:54Jason Calacanis?

  I think it's the opposite. I think the app economy would thrive. You'd be have this great thing where I could tell it, order the same thing I ordered on DoorDash yesterday.

• 1:09:00Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I encourage Apple to try to change the terms of service and see what happens.

• 1:09:02Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, Friedberg, your thoughts on this? Any thoughts? No, okay, well, let's get to this. It's time for Science Corner. Temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean are alarmingly high. Friedberg, a couple of weeks ago, we saw this crazy chart on the X about the Atlantic Ocean temperatures. Pre hurricane Katrina, right about now, and take us through this because it's very disconcerting.

• 1:09:25David Friedberg?

  There's not much to talk about except to highlight this image which shows, again, we talked about this a few months ago, hot ocean temperatures drive hurricane and tropical storm activity because as the wind, the air above the ocean starts to move, the energy from the ocean gets pulled out, you know, like things cool down, the water cools down, but that energy actually goes back into pushing the wind to move faster and faster, and that's how tropical storms, cyclones, and hurricanes are formed, is warm ocean temperatures. And there's been this kind of persistent warming since last year in the Atlantic, in this particular region where all the hurricanes form.

• 1:10:09David Friedberg?

  And normally, the hurricane season starts, kind of, call it August to October. Right now, we are seeing temperatures that are so far beyond what we've seen any time historically. This image that you're looking at here actually compares the ocean temperatures right now in the Atlantic to where we were at the same time period in 2005, which was a record hurricane year, obviously with hurricanes Katrina, right?

• 1:10:32Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah.

• 1:10:33David Friedberg?

  And so the National Hurricane Center, a lot of the climatologists are forecasting that over the next couple of months, we could see and should expect to see probabilistically much larger, stronger, bigger, more frequent hurricanes than we've ever seen historically. So we'll see if it plays out. Just a very small tidbit of news to share. Thought it'd be worth highlighting. Not getting a lot of mainstream media press attention, but, you know, certainly...

• 1:10:57Jason Calacanis?

  Let me ask you to just confirm a couple of things for me. Because we live in a time where people are questioning science and scientists, and we have institutions we don't trust, whether it's three-letter agencies in Washington or scientists and all these papers being written and everything we're finding out, and nobody trusts anybody, and we're sort of resetting trust. I want to just ask you as somebody I trust as a scientist. Number one, global warming, temperatures increasing, putting aside, you know, what we do about it. Temperatures in the ocean, it is undeniable, are increasing at a rate that you would describe as concerning. Am I correct?

• 1:11:31David Friedberg?

  We have not seen in the modern era, temperatures in the ocean like we're seeing now. That's a fact, right? So I'm not, I'm not going to do this whole big prognosis on everything all in one, because I think that's where people feel like there's room for discrediting things.

• 1:11:46Jason Calacanis?

  I'm trying to atomize this.

• 1:11:48David Friedberg?

  Yeah, we can be very specific about things. Here's an example. So this is the sea surface temperature going back to 1981.

• 1:11:54Jason Calacanis?

  Okay.

• 1:11:54David Friedberg?

  And as you can see, at this point in the year, and you know, the temperature oscillates because of the way the, the earth tilts towards the sun. Um, and so at this point in the year, we are seeing right now, sea surface temperatures that are beyond anything we've seen historically, and it is continuing to climb. So if this does not taper off or level off, we will see record sea surface temperatures in the August to October timeframe, which will almost certainly push massive hurricane events out of the Atlantic, and they will find their way towards the continental US and Mexico.

• 1:12:26Jason Calacanis?

  So this is super clarifying. This should not be controversial to anybody. We have temperature readings in the ocean, and this is concerning.

• 1:12:33David Friedberg?

  Simply data, it's just data.

• 1:12:34Jason Calacanis?

  It's simply data, right? So, you know, putting aside what political party you're on and what you think about gas and oil versus solar.

• 1:12:39David Friedberg?

  I will tell you, there's a lot of theory. One, one of the theories, so there's theories about El Niño, there's theories about climate change contributing to this. There's also a theory about sulfur dioxide that has now been banned in shipping and cargo vessels that

• 1:12:52Jason Calacanis?

  Okay.

• 1:12:53David Friedberg?

  go across the oceans. Last year, they banned sulfur dioxide use in the, the fuel that's, that's coming out of these. And sulfur dioxide actually reflects sunlight. So as it goes up into the air, into the atmosphere, coming out of these ships, it actually blocks and reflects light.

• 1:13:07Jason Calacanis?

  So that would make the oceans cooler?

• 1:13:09David Friedberg?

  And so a lot of folks have said that over the last couple of decades, we've actually dampened the temperature and the warming that's happened on Earth because of all the sulfur dioxide we've been putting up into the atmosphere. But because sulfur dioxide causes acid rain, environmentalists have been pushing for years to ban sulfur dioxide. The problem is with banning sulfur dioxide, you may have this other side effect, which is now more rapid increased warming

• 1:13:33Jason Calacanis?

  Got it.

• 1:13:33David Friedberg?

  of the surface and of the oceans.

• 1:13:35Jason Calacanis?

  So these are complex systems and we should be delicate with them. If you were to give us a prescription here, Friedberg, what's like a basic prescription? Are we just experimenting in a way that is not advisable with, you know, this ecosystem? And we should just not run the experiment? I think that might be like a non-political, non-charge way to say it. Like this experiment is a little bit too crazy to run on the one planet Earth we have. Yeah? Which experiment? The experiment of doing things that increase global warming, which would be... You mean living? Well, yeah, I mean, burning fossil fuels. People are just acting in their own economic best interests.

• 1:14:20Jason Calacanis?

  Yes, and if that economic best interest increases temperature so much, do you have a fear, Friedberg, that it will compromise the oceans and damage them to a point that would be extremely concerning? I guess what I'm getting at.

• 1:14:33David Friedberg?

  There is a reduction in biodiversity that's underway. We can see that, like using data. But to Chamoff's point, humans have prioritized the progression of individuals forward. China had a billion people that came out of poverty in 30 years.

• 1:14:49Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah.

• 1:14:49David Friedberg?

  And they came out of poverty because of the industrialization of the production of consumable goods that that population gets to consume. They get access to more calories, they get access to more foods, they get to have cars, they get to have houses. All of that, making cement, making concrete, all of those things require industrial systems. And those industrial systems have a cost. That cost is the dollar economic cost, which we're kind of rationalizing with greater productivity. Then there's this whole cost that's externalized.

• 1:15:15Jason Calacanis?

  Got it, yeah, we understand that.

• 1:15:16David Friedberg?

  Right, so that's the tension is like if you're wealthy, if you're a wealthy nation, if you're the Western Europe or the United States, you get to stand up and say, stop carbon. But if you're the rest of the world, you're like, I want to have a home. I want to have a car.

• 1:15:30Jason Calacanis?

  You want to have the same evolution stuff that America went through or Europe.

• 1:15:35David Friedberg?

  I want to, I want to progress as a, as a person. I want to progress as a society. And that's the tension that makes this a very difficult problem to resolve, which is how do more of the world get to progress while like being cognizant of the long term.

• 1:15:48Jason Calacanis?

  What I'm trying to get at Friedberg.

• 1:15:49David Friedberg?

  I am deeply optimistic. So let me just say this.

• 1:15:51Jason Calacanis?

  Oh yeah. That's what I'm getting at. Are you optimistic or are you pessimistic? Tell us.

• 1:15:55David Friedberg?

  I believe strongly that there is a strong relationship between the output of atmospheric carbon and the deleterious effects we see in ecosystems.

• 1:16:04Jason Calacanis?

  Okay.

• 1:16:05David Friedberg?

  That is something I feel like is true from data. I am not, however, as pessimistic that the world is going to end in the next decade or two, because I see improvements in productivity, meaning how many units we get out for every unit in, or how many units we get out for every unit of carbon that's emitted. And those productivity, meaning better technology systems, are rapidly changing how we make things and how people are accessing goods and services. And I think that that's why I am like, because I'm a techno optimist, I'm optimistic about where things are headed, are headed. And it is also why I get very angry and upset about any efforts or attempts to slow down the adoption of technology, because these things will pull people forward and make that happen faster without all the deleterious side effects

• 1:16:50David Friedberg?

  that we've unfortunately had to do in the absence of technology.

• 1:16:53Jason Calacanis?

  So Tramath, I'll pull you into here. So based on what Friedberg is saying here, yes, these things are occurring, but the technology and the advances we're seeing in but one example, solar, and then some people might bring up nuclear and other ones. We just had Phil Deutsch at my conference this week, give a great talk on this. Solar is just getting so cheap. Batteries are getting so cheap. Putting batteries in your home, putting solar in, you know, and then putting data centers next to nuclear things. This is all adding up to, we can solve this problem. And so you two feel optimistic about this?

• 1:17:23Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Yeah, totally. I think that climate change stalled when it was an emotional and philosophical rallying cry largely of the left.

• 1:17:33Chamath Palihapitiya?

  When instead it became something about resilience and domestic manufacturing, both sides came together. And I think we're at a point now where the US's energy independence plus the amount of reliance on non-carbon-based fuels will drive a sea change in the United States. I think it'll be copied in Western Europe. And it's also going to be at enough of a low price point where it'll get embraced in the developing world. So it's an incredible example of if you want to take an idea and a bunch of solutions and want to die on the

• 1:18:13Chamath Palihapitiya?

  hill of messaging and platitudes, it'll make no progress. But if instead you're willing to sort of be less extreme about it and actually just frame it in economic value add, all of a sudden, everybody embraces it and it just becomes obvious. So I think that we're going to do wonders over the next 20 and 30 and 40 years all over the world

• 1:18:39Chamath Palihapitiya?

  to push back on the general state of warming. But I think it will have happened because the economic incentives aligned, not because of a philosophical or emotional framing of the issue.

• 1:18:53Jason Calacanis?

  All right, everybody. This has been a very productive episode of the number one podcast in the world, the All In Podcast. And good luck tonight, gentlemen, with your fundraiser. I wish you great luck. David Sacks and Chama Polihopati, even if it's not my preferred candidate, that's totally fine. We can all differ and you can have a great, great event tonight. Good luck.

• 1:19:13Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I have one thing.

• 1:19:14Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, go ahead, Chama.

• 1:19:15Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I have one more birthday in my family today.

• 1:19:18Jason Calacanis?

  Making us all look bad.

• 1:19:20Chamath Palihapitiya?

  This is one of the most incredible people in my life, charismatic, funny, charming, intelligent. It is my bestie David Friedberg's birthday today.

• 1:19:32Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, it is?

• 1:19:33Chamath Palihapitiya?

  We love you, David.

• 1:19:34Jason Calacanis?

  We love you, David. We had a nice little birthday cake at the Liquidity Summit this week for him. I had a cake made. Thank you for showing. Happy birthday.

• 1:19:43Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And?

• 1:19:43Jason Calacanis?

  Here we go.

• 1:19:44Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And? And? It's also AK47, Alan Keating's birthday today as well.

• 1:19:48Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, you guys had the same birthday.

• 1:19:49Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Another bestie.

• 1:19:49Jason Calacanis?

  I love Alan Keating.

• 1:19:50Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Shut up, Alan Keating.

• 1:19:51David Sacks?

  One is 45 and one is 47.

• 1:19:54Jason Calacanis?

  What? Here we go. It's karma.

• 1:19:58David Sacks?

  Do you know the significance of that?

• 1:20:00Jason Calacanis?

  Of course, he's gonna win all the odd number elections. And there we go, here we go.

• 1:20:04David Sacks?

  I think it's a sign.

• 1:20:05Jason Calacanis?

  It's a sign. Listen, I wish good luck to you all tonight. I hope that it goes off well for you, for you gentlemen. And listen, I would love to have Trump on the pod, would love to have Biden on the pod. Like all things, we just want to have a great conversation here. We keep it respectful. Sometimes it gets a little chippy, but we love each other and we love you, the audience, for participating in this. Don't fall for the mainstream media's nonsense in trying to divide and conquer. We got important tasks to do and problems to solve in the world. And the way we do that is through great conversations. Hopefully, we set a tone, an example for everybody else of just how to do that. We still love each other and we, sometimes some elbows get flown. And it's all good. Chamath, Sacks, good luck tonight. Friedberg, uh, happy birthday. Bye bye.

• 1:20:49Jason Calacanis?

  We'll see you all next time on the number one podcast in the world. The All In Podcast, tell your friends about it. Love you, boys.

• 1:20:57Speaker 09

  Bye bye.

• 1:20:57Jason Calacanis?

  Love you, besties.

• 1:21:00Speaker 09

  We'll let your winners ride. Rain Man David Sacks.

• 1:21:07Speaker 09

  And instead, we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you, besties. I'm the queen of Kinoah.

• 1:21:20Speaker 09

  Besties are gone. That's my dog taking a notice in your driveway, Sacks.

• 1:21:27Speaker 09

  Oh, man.

• 1:21:30Chamath Palihapitiya?

  We should all just get a room and just have one big you, Georgie, because they're all just it's like this, like sexual tension that we just need to release somehow.

• 1:21:38Speaker 09

  What your, the beak? What your beak? What your beak? Beak? That's gonna be, we need to get merch. Besties are back.

• 1:21:55Jason Calacanis?

  All right, listen, thanks to our friends at 8Sleep. Sax and I are both investors and we both love the Pod4Ultra. They're an incredible company that we both backed and they are supporting the All In Summit. And if you haven't used the Pod4Ultra or the blah, blah, blah, 8Sleep, if you haven't used 8Sleep, it's awesome. Go to 8sleep.com/allin and use the code ALLIN. You'll get some sort of a discount there. Sax, you love the company. You use the product.

• 1:22:20David Sacks?

  It's a great product. And if you sweat like a pig at night, like J. Cal, it's particularly good for you. It'll keep you cool.

• 1:22:26Jason Calacanis?

  Absolutely. It'll keep you cool. And if you're up all night because you have so much anxiety about Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine, like Sax, and you can't sleep and you're doom scrolling and tweeting all night, maybe this will help you go to bed finally, which I'm watching those tweets. You're staying up too late, Sax. Get some rest here and use 8Sleep to do it. And thanks to our friends over there, 8sleep.com/allin, code ALLIN. You get like free Hyundai or something like that off the, off the price. Really good deal. And we love the company. Okay, last year at the All In Summit, we had a wonderful talk by Jenny Just. And they have a very cool program called Power Poker. They're holding a 2024 Summer Boot Camp and Tournament for Women Only. So for the ladies out there, if you want to learn how to play poker, just like the besties and Jenny Just, you can join this four-week training class.

• 1:23:11Jason Calacanis?

  You get unlimited playing time. You play in a tournament. I'm going to come and play in one of the sessions. But here's the great part. We donated a ticket because we think it's worth encouraging women to join the poker community. And so there's a $7,500 All In Summit 2024 ticket at stake. There's only 80 spots. Go ahead and join at pokerpower.com/summer-bootcamp. Pokerpower.com/summer-bootcamp. It's going to fill up quick. I know a number of the women who work at my venture firm launch have joined and they're looking forward to learning poker. Again, 80 spots. I think they charge 100 bucks just to make sure you show up. And there's an All In Summit ticket there for you. You can actually see the video of this podcast on YouTube, youtube.com/atallin or just search All In Podcast and hit the alert bell and you'll get updates when we

• 1:23:56Jason Calacanis?

  post. And we're going to do a party in Vegas. My understanding when we hit a million subscribers, so look for that as well. You can follow us on X, X.com/theallinpod. TikTok is all underscore in underscore talk. Instagram, theallinpod. And on LinkedIn, just search for the All In Podcast. You can follow Chamath at X.com/chamath. And you can sign up for a Substack at chamath.substack.com. I do. Freeburg can be followed at X.com/freeburg. And Ohalo is hiring. Click on the careers page at ohalogenetics.com. Okay, everybody, follow Sacks at X.com/DavidSacks. And check out Sacks's Slack killer, Glue, at glue.ai. I'm Jason Calacanis.

• 1:24:40Jason Calacanis?

  I am X.com/Jason. And if you want to see pictures of my bulldogs and the food I'm eating, go to Instagram.com/JasonInTheFirstNameClub. You can listen to my other podcasts, This Week in Startups. Just search for it on YouTube or your favorite podcast player. We are hiring a researcher. Apply to be a researcher, doing primary research and working with me and producer Nick, working in data and science and being able to do great research, finance, et cetera. Allinpodcast.co/research. It's a full-time job, working with us, the besties. And really excited about my investment in Athena. Go to athena, wow, athena, wow.com and get yourself a bit of a discount from your boy J. Cal. Athena, wow.com. We'll see you all next time on the All In Podcast.