Ed Niedermeyer (Autonomous Driving Expert)

Ed Niedermeyer is a journalist and author most known for his 2019 book "Ludicrous: The Unvarnished Story of Tesla Motors". When it comes to the business of Tesla, he is one of the most well-respected and trusted voices. https://benbellabooks.com/shop/ludicrous/ https://www.autonocast.com/ Recorded April 1, 2025 Get TWENTY PERCENT off your DeleteMe plan when you go to https://www.joindeleteme.com/TIRE and use promo code TIRE at checkout. To listen to DRIVE with Jim Farley, just search for “DRIVE with Jim Farley” in your podcast app. https://www.youtube.com/@Jim. Farley New merch! Grab a shirt or hoodie and support us! https://thesmokingtireshop.com/ Want your question answered? To listen to the episode the day it's recorded? Want to watch the live stream, get ad-free podcasts, or exclusive podcasts? Join our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thesmokingtirepodcast Use Off The Record! and ALWAYS fight your tickets! Enter code TST25 for a 10% discount on your first case on the Off The Record app, or go to http://www.offtherecord.com/TST. #cars #comedy #podcast Tweet at us! https://www. Twitter.com/thesmokingtire https://www. Twitter.com/zackklapman Instagram: https://www. Instagram.com/thesmokingtire https://www. Instagram.com/therealzackklapman Click here for the most honest car reviews out there: https://www.youtube.com/thesmokingtire

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Matt Farah?

  What's up everybody? Welcome to the Smoking Tire Podcast. It's a big week here on the podcast and Off the Record is still with us. Of course, if you want to use Off the Record, we have a new code for this year, TST25 on the Off the Record app. Throw away your old codes or go to offtherecord.com/tst. Why should you do such things? Well, let's say you get a ticket. You've been pulled over for something and are ticketed. Don't argue with that police officer on the side of the road. Instead, take that ticket and call or go on the app to Off

• 0:40Matt Farah?

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• 1:17Matt Farah?

  Go to offtherecord.com/tst or use code TST25 on the Off the Record app. All right, on this episode of the podcast, Ed Niedermeyer is in studio. He is an author. His book Ludicrous is a must read on the Smoking Tire reading list. He is a podcaster, co-host of the Autonicast, which is about AV development with our good friend Alex Roy. He is a writer for Automotive News and a freelancer for a whole bunch of other things, and he is probably the most poignant Elon Musk critic since before it was cool. I love talking

• 1:59Matt Farah?

  to him and man, there's no been, never been a better time to talk crap about Elon Musk. So it's 90 minutes of that with Ed Niedermeyer on the Smoking Tire.

• 2:09Speaker 01

  It's so hard to know what the right thing to do in these situations. I actually chose not to delete my tweets because I want him to train AI on it. Because it's all, it's all just-

• 2:18Matt Farah?

  I didn't think of that.

• 2:19Speaker 01

  Stuff that calls your mouth.

• 2:21Matt Farah?

  I didn't think of that. That is funny.

• 2:23Speaker 01

  It's a niche thing for me.

• 2:25Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 2:25Speaker 01

  For most people, the calculus is gonna be a little different.

• 2:27Matt Farah?

  The AI that says he's like the misinformation king is fabulous.

• 2:31Speaker 01

  I mean, I feel like, I feel like that when I see shit like that, I'm like,

• 2:35Matt Farah?

  So, yeah.

• 2:36Speaker 01

  That was why, that was what I was going for.

• 2:38Matt Farah?

  You're, you're, as usual, Ed Niedermeyer is one step beyond us mere mortals. I, someone-

• 2:44Speaker 01

  I'm also, I'm also really lazy is the other thing. I'm good at coming up with excuses for my laziness.

• 2:49Matt Farah?

  Zach and I got booked on a very premium gig that was cancelled at the last minute because of something I tweeted in three years ago.

• 2:58Speaker 01

  No shit.

• 2:58Matt Farah?

  And, and if you read the tweet, you'd go, this is incredibly benign.

• 3:02Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 3:03Matt Farah?

  It was in which I referred to someone as an Elon Musk bootlicker.

• 3:08Speaker 01

  You got dropped from a program for that?

• 3:10Matt Farah?

  I got dropped from a, from like, not a, from like a commercial gig.

• 3:14Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 3:14Matt Farah?

  Not, not like-

• 3:15Speaker 01

  Oh, okay, not like-

• 3:15Matt Farah?

  Nobody was like, you can't come drive the new GT3.

• 3:18Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 3:18Matt Farah?

  No, no, no, no, no. No, they, they're-

• 3:22Speaker 01

  Who cares that much about?

• 3:23Matt Farah?

  No, it was a, it was a very, it was not related to reviewing cars. It was a high-paid appearance commercial gig. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But like, after that, I was like, well, my old tweets cannot help me in any way. Get, get the fuck out of here.

• 3:39Speaker 01

  So you're just done with that now?

• 3:40Matt Farah?

  I kept, I owned the handle because I don't want anybody else to use it, certainly. But I, the, every tweet I've ever tweeted has gone.

• 3:47Speaker 01

  Okay, and you're not-

• 3:48Speaker 02

  Ed, will you move the mic a little closer to yourself?

• 3:49Speaker 01

  Yeah, sure.

• 3:50Speaker 02

  You can, you can raise it too, that sounds low.

• 3:51Matt Farah?

  Oh, yeah, there you go. Yeah, cool.

• 3:53Speaker 01

  Yeah. Uh, so, uh, because do you have a Blue, you have a Blue Sky handle, don't you?

• 3:58Matt Farah?

  Again, I have a Blue Sky handle, I think I made a Mastodon handle.

• 4:01Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 4:01Matt Farah?

  I have, uh, whatever the fucking other one, uh, uh, uh, uh-

• 4:05Speaker 02

  Truth Social.

• 4:06Speaker 01

  Threads. Yeah, yeah.

• 4:07Matt Farah?

  You know, I, I made them just so that no one else could make them.

• 4:10Speaker 01

  But that part of your life is over now?

• 4:12Matt Farah?

  No, I just like- Too much internet's bad for you, man. It's, I don't know, I don't wanna say you, that's irresponsible. Too much internet is bad for me.

• 4:20Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 4:21Matt Farah?

  It's really bad for me.

• 4:22Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 4:22Matt Farah?

  And so, obviously, I have to have a minimum amount of internet. There's no fucking way not to, right?

• 4:28Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 4:28Matt Farah?

  So, I, I've chosen Instagram.

• 4:31Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 4:31Matt Farah?

  I think, uh, it's probably one of the less evil ones. I mean, considering Zuckerberg was still one of the less, uh, you know, whatever.

• 4:40Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 4:41Matt Farah?

  It's not like, it's not evil on the surface. It's not, it's not like, hey, guys, this is evil, like, you know.

• 4:47Speaker 01

  It's a more nuanced kinda evil. Yeah, yeah.

• 4:50Matt Farah?

  And I, I did, I did dip my toe in Blue Sky.

• 4:52Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 4:53Matt Farah?

  I dipped my toe in Threads, and I, and both of them, it was like, look, these are, these are Twitter without Elon, which is better.

• 5:00Speaker 01

  Right.

• 5:00Matt Farah?

  But it didn't make me feel

• 5:02Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 5:02Matt Farah?

  any really much different. So I said, okay, let's, let's not.

• 5:06Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 5:06Matt Farah?

  But you, but it's, but you, you, as someone who speaks truth to power to their faces, I do it from this chair. You do it to their faces a lot. Uh, it's important for you to be on those things.

• 5:19Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, it is also, I think, short form microblogging, uh, is just, has its hooks in me. Like, there's something about that format that I really like.

• 5:28Matt Farah?

  I mean, it's worked well for you in the past.

• 5:31Speaker 01

  It has, and it's, it's better now. I mean, I'm already-

• 5:34Matt Farah?

  Probably how I found out about you. No, I found out about you from Truth About Cars.

• 5:38Speaker 01

  Yeah, maybe.

• 5:38Matt Farah?

  I think, you, I, I've read you as far back as Truth About Cars.

• 5:42Speaker 01

  Maybe even Alex.

• 5:43Matt Farah?

  Maybe, yeah, maybe.

• 5:44Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 5:45Matt Farah?

  But, uh, you're good at, at the Twitter format.

• 5:48Speaker 01

  I enjoy it.

• 5:49Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 5:49Speaker 01

  There's something about being for, I'm, cause like, I'm like naturally long-winded, which is why I'm gonna, I like, I enjoy podcasts, but then, I, I, it's good to be forced to like, right? And, and people on podcasts can't keep me concise.

• 6:03Matt Farah?

  Can't hold you down. Well, it's weird, right? What, what works in, in 2025 is either incredibly short or incredibly long.

• 6:09Speaker 01

  That's absolutely right.

• 6:10Matt Farah?

  And almost nothing in between, right?

• 6:11Speaker 01

  Right, right. That's so, so my most natural format for expression, weirdly, in writing, is like a thousand word. So I, I was at Bloomberg View for a number of years, and like, the thousand-word op-ed is, but I like, I did it so much, I got really, really, but there's just no market, no one reads that shit anymore. It is, it's either the little quip, right? Or it's the like, seven hour, like, Lex print.

• 6:34Matt Farah?

  I mean, dude, I, you know, I fuck with Behind the Bastards, and they're doing four or five hours on a person.

• 6:39Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 6:40Matt Farah?

  And that person's always horrible and so it's just, I think, I think, I think there's, among other things, we have no attention span, obviously, right? No one has an attention span, but we also have longer commutes than ever.

• 6:53Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 6:54Matt Farah?

  And so we just have so much time to fill in the fucking car.

• 6:58Speaker 01

  This is the thing that I forgot about living in Portland, because like, I literally don't get in a car Monday through Friday.

• 7:03Matt Farah?

  That's nice.

• 7:04Speaker 01

  It's so nice.

• 7:05Matt Farah?

  It's nice.

• 7:05Speaker 01

  So nice. I mean, literally, maybe like once a week, twice a week.

• 7:08Matt Farah?

  But you work from home?

• 7:09Speaker 01

  I work from home.

• 7:09Matt Farah?

  Yeah, okay.

• 7:10Speaker 01

  Yeah, I work from home, grocery store is two blocks away, bars, restaurants, whatever, it's all, you know, five, 10, 15 minute walk, jump on the bike if I want to go a little further. Honestly, like, it's, it's, I forget how spoiled I am, all the time.

• 7:24Matt Farah?

  That is a nice thing.

• 7:25Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 7:25Matt Farah?

  We used to have that when we lived in Venice and we don't have that at our new place and we didn't, we love our new house and we like our new neighbors, but we did not realize that what we were missing by not having that.

• 7:36Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 7:37Matt Farah?

  And it was like, ooh, short sighted on that one a little bit.

• 7:41Speaker 01

  It's crazy when your, when your situation changes, your physical environment changes like that, like, it, it really is, it's like the, the fish in the water. Like, you just don't, you take it for granted, whatever it is, right? Um, and then it's only when it changes that you realize, like, for me, it's, it's coming to California. You know, I go to the Bay Area a lot for work and stuff and, and I just remember, like, holy shit, people spent, this is why people, like, cannot wait for self-driving cars to be here. This is why people consume four-hour podcasts. Like, these are all things that, like, I have a hard time understanding until I go and, like, I'm in a physical space that, that most other people live in, which is really different.

• 8:15Matt Farah?

  I consume an enormous volume of podcasts because my transit time is insane.

• 8:20Speaker 01

  I bet.

• 8:21Matt Farah?

  Just always.

• 8:21Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 8:22Matt Farah?

  And I'm, I'm at the high, I mean, but my general manager here, dude, I think every single one of my employees here commutes like, an hour each way or more. And the fires have made it way worse. PCH being closed by the, from the fire.

• 8:37Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 8:38Matt Farah?

  Is fucking shit up.

• 8:40Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 8:41Matt Farah?

  If you live in the valley right now, north of LA, and you quote, over, over the hill right now, is hell.

• 8:49Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 8:49Matt Farah?

  Because every- Everyone west of the Palisades has to lap around. It is fucked up.

• 8:58Speaker 01

  You know, you know, when people went LAP, when Angelito's are like, the traffic's bad, you know.

• 9:02Matt Farah?

  Bro, you know, why, let me ask the question, Zach Klapman and, and, why aren't they running a fucking ferry? Why isn't there a ferry going from somewhere in Western Malibu to the Santa Monica Pier?

• 9:18Speaker 02

  Uh, I think, I mean, Western Malibu, oh, because they have to go all the way around. That's a good question. That'd be a pretty good idea.

• 9:24Matt Farah?

  I bet you a ferry is shorter than driving all the way around in morning traffic.

• 9:29Speaker 02

  You'd have to do that plus.

• 9:30Matt Farah?

  Not necessarily a car ferry, a person ferry.

• 9:33Speaker 02

  But you have to do that plus Uber, because so many people in LA, I think, live, like, do they work in Santa Monica? Do they work in Beverly Hills?

• 9:39Speaker 01

  But there's like rail at Santa Monica.

• 9:41Matt Farah?

  I'm just saying.

• 9:41Speaker 01

  You could, if you, if, if it came into Santa Monica, you could get on the rail.

• 9:45Speaker 02

  Way quicker than driving.

• 9:46Matt Farah?

  It would be an alternative for people who wanted an alternative. Yeah. I'm sure there's 10 good reasons why no one's done this, but like.

• 9:53Speaker 02

  It's only like a four mile drive.

• 9:55Matt Farah?

  The sea is still there.

• 9:56Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 9:57Matt Farah?

  Not to swim in, you can't swim in it.

• 9:59Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah.

• 9:59Matt Farah?

  The surfers have to go to Orange County.

• 10:01Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 10:01Matt Farah?

  Because of the, because of the toxic shit from the fire.

• 10:04Speaker 01

  Oh, really? Oh, I hadn't heard about this.

• 10:05Matt Farah?

  Oh, no, it's gonna be like years before you can go in the water. Yeah, it's like fucked up.

• 10:10Speaker 01

  That's so sad.

• 10:10Matt Farah?

  Yeah, it's all fu, it's all bad.

• 10:12Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 10:13Matt Farah?

  Nothing good.

• 10:13Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 10:14Matt Farah?

  Nothing good.

• 10:14Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 10:15Matt Farah?

  Um, anyway, yeah, let's start on a real fucking downer, Ed. What's going on with you?

• 10:20Speaker 01

  Oh, you know, just normal chill stuff.

• 10:23Speaker 02

  Yeah, to go to an uplifting place.

• 10:25Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 10:25Speaker 02

  What have you been covering lately?

• 10:26Matt Farah?

  How does it feel to be writing a book about a person who then ends up taking over the entire government before you finish the book? That's question number three I have written down here.

• 10:37Speaker 01

  I feel like I've been, yeah, people are like, you know, did you see this coming? And it's like, it's really weird to have been one of the biggest Elon Musk haters and like not at all have predicted that it could have gotten this bad.

• 10:49Matt Farah?

  You don't have that, uh, Sarah Kenzie or weight of being right.

• 10:53Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 10:53Matt Farah?

  You know, like.

• 10:54Speaker 01

  No, I mean, I've been, I've been, I've been right about some things.

• 10:56Matt Farah?

  Oh, no, you were right about a lot.

• 10:58Speaker 01

  I just had no idea that it could possibly.

• 11:00Speaker 02

  Do you think you bullied him into this behavior with your fact-based book?

• 11:05Speaker 01

  My conscience is clean on that one.

• 11:06Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 11:07Speaker 01

  Yeah, no.

• 11:08Matt Farah?

  You're to Musk what Obama was.

• 11:10Speaker 02

  You hurt him so deeply.

• 11:11Matt Farah?

  If you didn't make fun of him, he never would have done this. You made him do it.

• 11:15Speaker 01

  Yeah, I would love to take credit. Well, actually, I don't know.

• 11:20Matt Farah?

  No, but that's the fucking bully, that's the bully argument, right? If you just fucking shut up and left me alone, I wouldn't have to do this.

• 11:27Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, exactly.

• 11:28Matt Farah?

  That's like straight abuser.

• 11:29Speaker 01

  Look what you made me do.

• 11:30Matt Farah?

  Straight abuser mentality. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 11:33Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 11:33Matt Farah?

  Ed's first book, Ludicrous, is a must-read. TST reading list, absolute must-read. In fact, I would, I would like go so far as to call it like a starting point because me and Ed have been calling this guy a piece of shit for a really long time and now everybody else gets to learn.

• 11:52Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 11:52Matt Farah?

  If they didn't at Twitter.

• 11:54Speaker 01

  Right.

• 11:54Matt Farah?

  If they didn't at Twitter, now they're gonna learn.

• 11:56Speaker 01

  Well, and I think, I think it's good and, you know, this would be my, my big sales pitch here, but like it, you know, I'm all for hating on people, but like the best thing about being a hater is that you, is you actually learn things. Like actually, that's the really interesting thing about, about the Tesla thing. For years, I, I remember realizing a really long time ago that the fans understood less than the haters.

• 12:17Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 12:18Speaker 01

  Because like for them, it was all about like lore, essentially. They were like, they were like Tolkien fans or like Star Wars fans or something where it's like all about reciting and, and, and sort of building this sort of like largely imaginary world of, of like lore, whereas the haters.

• 12:33Matt Farah?

  Sounds so culty.

• 12:33Speaker 01

  Where it, yeah.

• 12:34Matt Farah?

  You have your own like language.

• 12:36Speaker 02

  Fan group, right? The fan groups aren't gonna look into the truth of something.

• 12:40Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 12:40Speaker 02

  They're gonna look at what they like and silo themselves or, you know, that's why what aboutisms are so popular because someone goes, "You shit on my floor." And like, "Well, what about the time your dog pooped on my floor?" Or whatever. And you, you don't want to look at the actual truth.

• 12:52Speaker 01

  Yeah. And, and so you're exactly right. They, they won't engage with the criticism because they can't. There's just no, they know there's nowhere to go with it. And so they just sort of ignore it. And, and as a result, they end up preventing themselves from learning about the thing that they're supposedly a fan of. There's a real deep irony to it. And, um. Yeah, it's, it's, it's been really kind of fascinating.

• 13:12Speaker 02

  But if you learn too much about it, it might make you question your view of that thing.

• 13:16Speaker 01

  Exactly.

• 13:16Speaker 02

  And therefore, it threatens your allegiance to the tribe.

• 13:19Speaker 01

  Because learning, right, is about thinking critically about stuff. It's about questioning things and trying to figure out, like, what is the actual answer here? And the whole dynamic is him spoon-feeding you some slop that you just num-num-num-num-num, you know, and, and don't, and don't question it. And this, as soon as you start thinking for yourself, it becomes very difficult. And this was even in the early days, it was sort of easier, and it just got harder and harder and harder to think for yourself and continue to just be a fan. And so you saw, like, smart people, there used, there used to be smart Elon fans. You know, like, once upon a time, I remember there being smart Elon fans, and like, there just aren't anymore.

• 13:55Speaker 03

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• 15:54Matt Farah?

  Yeah, well, it, the, yeah, the, so many lies became really obvious if you were not incentivized to not see, I mean, so few cults throughout history have an actual financial reward structure built in to not calling out the bullshit.

• 16:17Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 16:17Matt Farah?

  Which is really wild. I mean, pick your cult.

• 16:21Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 16:21Matt Farah?

  How, can you, do you know of any other cult where you're financially incentivized to keeping up the bullshit? That's kind of a crazy thing.

• 16:29Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, I think there's like, there are definitely religions that, you know, have sort of economic mutual development as part of it and, you know.

• 16:37Matt Farah?

  Yeah, I guess like pyramid scheme type stuff.

• 16:39Speaker 02

  There's like, the, that Kundalini Yoga, I watched that documentary about that little cult thing. And the financial incentive was, you're in the community and where they lived at this property, like you have everything provided for you. And so if you go against it and get ostracized, and you, especially if, the longer you've lived in the cult, the less you know how to operate in the normal world.

• 16:58Matt Farah?

  Institution last, 40 years I've been asking permission to piss.

• 17:02Speaker 01

  But, Matt, you're right, though, that, like, it is pretty unique to have this, this kind of cult or religion where it's like, the, if you tell the story, if you evangelize this story, this narrative, and more people accept it as true, you will, as a stockholder, become more wealthy.

• 17:20Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 17:20Speaker 01

  And that, that's one piece that's super unique. The other piece is, is the tools with which to do that, which is the internet.

• 17:25Matt Farah?

  Right.

• 17:25Speaker 01

  That's the other piece that's really unique. And I think that you, you take those two pieces and you Put almost any, we're in a way, we're lucky that it wasn't some weirder religion that sort of grabbed those two pieces first in a way.

• 17:37Matt Farah?

  Oh, thank God, it's just a car.

• 17:38Speaker 01

  It's just electric car company, you know?

• 17:40Matt Farah?

  Yeah, like what if Elron was fucking doing it, right?

• 17:43Speaker 01

  There's a lot of personalities that you can imagine with those two pieces if they'd figured it out.

• 17:48Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 17:48Speaker 02

  I mean, that's definitely happening now also.

• 17:50Matt Farah?

  Well, it is, but.

• 17:52Speaker 01

  It's a car. Prelude of coming attractions, unfortunately, yeah.

• 17:55Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 17:55Speaker 02

  This, this trailer sucks.

• 17:57Speaker 01

  Yeah. No, I mean, I've been saying for a while, for all the bad, and I was saying this more before, you know, Elon really, you know, hit his, his top gear or whatever.

• 18:07Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 18:07Speaker 01

  But, um, you know, in a lot of ways, you know, the danger of Elon is not just what he does, but it's the example he sets.

• 18:13Matt Farah?

  Of course.

• 18:14Speaker 01

  You know, and, and all of the copycats are gonna come.

• 18:16Matt Farah?

  It's that like stochastic kind of terror vibe where you just, you just sort of got push shit in a way where someone is gonna do some fucking crazy thing.

• 18:29Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 18:29Matt Farah?

  And then you can be like, oh, all I said was, and then that sounds an awful lot like January the 6th, I don't know, but maybe it does. That just sounds a little bit kind of the same.

• 18:39Speaker 01

  Well, and in the whole, like every, uh, was every accusation is a confession. That's of course now what they're accusing those of us who are involved in the protest movement is doing.

• 18:46Matt Farah?

  The one from today?

• 18:48Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 18:48Matt Farah?

  Oh, I, I did the thing I shouldn't have done, woke up this morning, looked at some news, like.

• 18:52Speaker 01

  Ruined your day before you got out of bed, yeah.

• 18:54Matt Farah?

  Well, you must, you get Musk watch, you must, right? From popular information.

• 18:58Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 18:59Matt Farah?

  You've got, you fucking popular, popular information is awesome. Uh, Judd Legum, uh.

• 19:04Speaker 02

  Oh, I've subscribed to that.

• 19:06Matt Farah?

  Data-driven calling out of spin bullshit. Um, they have like Elon Musk with so much news, they spun off an entire newsletter that's just, and it's like 2,000 words twice a week. It's crazy.

• 19:20Speaker 01

  I know, I see this stuff and I'm like, why did I, why am I working on a book right now that won't be out?

• 19:23Matt Farah?

  Doing a sub stack for fucking all these people. But just like this, from this morning, it was like, he's, Elon is up on stage handing out million dollar checks to quote voters.

• 19:36Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 19:37Matt Farah?

  In Wisconsin and on stage yelling about George Soros? Like you're, you're doing the thing. That's the.

• 19:47Matt Farah?

  My head is going to explode.

• 19:49Speaker 01

  Yeah, no, and, and, and saying that, that, you know, the, the people who are pushing the quote-unquote lies and propaganda are the ones that are like responsible for the, the violence and the vandalism, like, that's, that's really exciting, too, when there's like an FBI task force.

• 20:03Speaker 02

  Right.

• 20:04Speaker 01

  And all that.

• 20:05Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 20:05Speaker 01

  Yeah, chill times.

• 20:06Matt Farah?

  Cool.

• 20:07Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's a good time to be a car fan.

• 20:09Matt Farah?

  Yeah, so make sure if you want to say something secretly, um, you know, without them finding out, use Signal.

• 20:15Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, right.

• 20:18Speaker 01

  Always just make sure you got a journalist on the chat.

• 20:20Matt Farah?

  Oh, it's great.

• 20:21Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 20:21Matt Farah?

  It's just, thank God they're so stupid, right? We can always fall, well, you know, when the government is falling apart, you can always count on stupidity to be the last backstop, maybe.

• 20:34Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 20:35Matt Farah?

  I don't know.

• 20:36Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 20:36Speaker 02

  I, I don't think it mattered, they just deny it and they roll past it.

• 20:39Speaker 01

  Yeah, that's a problem, stupidity is almost a strength at a certain point, so.

• 20:43Matt Farah?

  Shit, anyway.

• 20:46Speaker 01

  But, yeah.

• 20:47Matt Farah?

  Yeah, but, okay, so your, uh, Ludacris ends, like, the problem with this fucking guy is, where do you end a book?

• 20:55Speaker 01

  Oh.

• 20:55Matt Farah?

  There's, there's 4,000 words a week of news about this dude, so how do you pick where to stop? I mean, even the last book, I think FSD was like right on the thing and you had to stop, right?

• 21:06Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, no, like, like, writing a book about Elon Musk a- and his companies is the worst thing. There's a reason not very many people have done it, and it's because the, everything is moving, right? If you, if you assume it's a year-long process, take any year from the last decade, and look at what was happening with Tesla and Elon at the beginning of that year, and then at the end, and like, it's just crazy, and you think about, yeah, trying to write a book over that kind of period, or, or really longer, uh, for Ludacris, um, and it's bonkers, like, so, so by the time you get close to ending, things are changing a lot. With Ludacris, I just dealt with that by really trying, knowing upfront that I wasn't gonna be able to tell the whole story. There was gonna be more story at the end, and I didn't know how it was going to end, and so I really tried to identify, what are the dynamics from like the beginning of the company that have sort of fueled it?

• 21:51Speaker 01

  You know, every story has its sort of like dynamics that sort of drive it forward, and... For Tesla, it was, you know, this whole thing of like not understanding the car business, but being really good at the Silicon Valley fundraising game. And, and sort of that, sort of slowly overcoming the problems of, so, so making up for the problems you have on the car business side, right? Because you're, you're, you don't know what you're doing and you're, you're one mistake after the other. But then you're like, okay, we'll plug the gap with all of this capital coming in.

• 22:18Matt Farah?

  Way more money. We can, money will fix this.

• 22:21Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 22:21Matt Farah?

  That's a great lesson to learn for life, isn't it, guys?

• 22:24Speaker 01

  Well, and then, and then essentially it became this self-driving fraud that is now, you know, eclipsed the, the car company part of it, basically. Um, so that's what the second book now is about. It's about the, about autopilot and full self-driving.

• 22:36Matt Farah?

  The FSD scam.

• 22:37Speaker 01

  So it's not like a.

• 22:38Matt Farah?

  What if it works before you finish the book?

• 22:42Speaker 01

  Yeah, that's one risk I'm willing to run. Yeah.

• 22:44Matt Farah?

  Hello, Will.

• 22:46Speaker 01

  And there's a lot of uncertainty. And when you're dealing with as much uncertainties I have to deal with, you, you, you know, focus on what's really uncertain and what isn't. And yeah, he's not going to deliver. Like, that's not.

• 22:56Matt Farah?

  Pretty, it's, it's not happening.

• 22:58Speaker 01

  Although, although the way it is timing, it is hard because the deployment is supposed to happen in June in, in, in Austin. And I have to absolutely have a draft in by then. Like, there's no way I can push it out that long. So there will be a little bit of a cliffhanger at the end. Um, may do what I did with Ludacris, which is add one chapter after a year. Like a year after it comes out.

• 23:16Matt Farah?

  Yeah, I forgot you did that.

• 23:18Speaker 01

  Um, when the soft back comes out, add another chapter, kind of catch you up a little bit. Um, probably will go down to Austin just to check it out. But at the end of the day, when a guy's like, I'm going to do this by the end of the year for eight years, I can't put a damn draft on hold.

• 23:30Matt Farah?

  Yeah, no, of course.

• 23:31Speaker 01

  Like, as a critic, it makes no sense for me to like put anything on hold, thinking maybe he'll deliver on this thing.

• 23:38Matt Farah?

  And that's his game, right? I mean, his, his whole thing is, he, he apparently, everyone said he couldn't do any of the things that he's done. I'm not sure where all these people are that are like, you can't do this. I don't know where those people are.

• 23:56Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 23:56Matt Farah?

  Maybe they exist.

• 23:57Speaker 01

  I've never, like, the SpaceX one is the one, like, oh, everyone said he couldn't land rockets. I've never found a single, like, I've looked, I've looked too, I looked. I was like, who was the person writing op-eds saying this guy can't land rockets? I've never found one.

• 24:10Matt Farah?

  If anybody out there listens to this show and was in the room.

• 24:13Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 24:14Matt Farah?

  When people were like, listen, dude, you cannot land a rocket.

• 24:17Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 24:17Matt Farah?

  It can very, I, I've never heard that. I've never heard any of the shit he did. Being fought against by some major organization or even a small one or anything.

• 24:26Speaker 01

  Sure, but this is a close work.

• 24:28Speaker 02

  Yeah, you create an enemy, whether they exist or they don't exist, and that gets people on your side.

• 24:32Matt Farah?

  But then you have to apply that to everything else. Like even if people said you can't land a rocket and you could land a rocket. What the fuck does that have to do with a car?

• 24:40Speaker 01

  Yeah, nothing.

• 24:41Matt Farah?

  Nothing.

• 24:42Speaker 01

  I mean, it doesn't even have anything to do with, like, why has SpaceX never turned a profit?

• 24:48Speaker 01

  I mean, like...

• 24:50Matt Farah?

  I thought, I thought governments should run like businesses. Damn it.

• 24:53Speaker 01

  Like, it is cool to watch the rockets land. It is something that people can mentally process. It's like, oh yeah, if you reuse it, it saves money. People don't know about the rocket business. You know what I mean? People don't understand it.

• 25:03Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 25:04Speaker 01

  Why has it never turned a profit?

• 25:05Matt Farah?

  Well, that's like that, you know, that, the greatest tweet of all time, which was like, you know, when, uh, when Elon was, uh, building electric cars and everyone said he was a genius. I, I didn't know anything about electric cars, so I just like listened and when everyone said he was a genius with the rockets, I, I just listened, but like, I'm a software engineer and I've never seen dumber shit than this Twitter thing.

• 25:25Speaker 01

  It's called the realization.

• 25:26Matt Farah?

  And you're like, uh, yeah.

• 25:28Speaker 01

  Yeah. No, and literally for me, it was just, I just happened to, to be into battery swap.

• 25:32Matt Farah?

  The battery swap thing.

• 25:33Speaker 01

  You know, it's such a obscure thing.

• 25:35Matt Farah?

  Someone, who actually has delivered on battery swap? BYD?

• 25:38Speaker 01

  Uh, Neo.

• 25:39Matt Farah?

  Neo, yeah.

• 25:40Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah.

• 25:40Matt Farah?

  Have you seen it?

• 25:41Speaker 01

  Uh, no, you know, it's funny, I was supposed to go to China, um, and then Neo ran into some kind of financial. I had like the, like, getting my visa and then they ran into some like financial trouble and, and they got bailed out. Obviously they're still around, but, but the trip got canceled.

• 25:55Matt Farah?

  Oh, bummer.

• 25:55Speaker 01

  So, I would like to see it someday. I still, you know, I think like a lot of things in China, it's, it's really exciting and really like, they're, they're pushing the envelope in so many different ways. That's where all the action is in the car business. I don't know how, like, really, like, sustainable as a business, all of that really is. Um, I still don't fully understand how the privately owned car model works with battery swap.

• 26:15Matt Farah?

  I don't either.

• 26:16Speaker 01

  Yeah, so, I, but I, look, when I'm done with this book, I'd love to go to China and learn more.

• 26:21Matt Farah?

  I just read a story about, um, a, a new breakthrough in, in battery recycling as well.

• 26:26Speaker 01

  Oh, cool.

• 26:26Matt Farah?

  Something that is able to, uh... Break the battery into quite small pieces that become usable, essentially. I mean, it was, it was a, I don't want to say the wrong thing, so I don't want to try to guess exactly what it said, but it was a pretty interesting breakthrough in battery recycling, which is something that a lot of anti-EV people, and even a lot of good faith EV people like myself are like, well, what happens end of life? So I'm interested in that as a topic.

• 26:53Speaker 01

  Yeah, especially with the big battery model that we're sort of pursuing. I mean, we'll see if, you know, I mean, it seems like the market has sort of tapped out here with that approach.

• 27:00Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 27:01Speaker 01

  But, you know, if we're going to move to a world where we just replace all the cars with, you know, 300-mile EVs, if we don't have what they call circular supply chain, it just isn't going to happen.

• 27:10Matt Farah?

  It's going to be really problematic.

• 27:12Speaker 02

  And we don't want it to be like the, you know, plastic thing where it's like recycling is a bit of a lie.

• 27:16Speaker 01

  Oh, my God.

• 27:17Speaker 02

  And it causes all kinds of problems, but like if they said that they could recycle the batteries, but they're just dumping it somewhere, it seems like an even bigger problem.

• 27:23Speaker 01

  Absolutely, yeah.

• 27:24Speaker 02

  People, I mean, what's cool is like, the market does usually respond to things. So if someone, if they can figure it out, there's a business for it, right?

• 27:30Matt Farah?

  I mean, I think these technologies do exist. The technology is there, it's just like, is it?

• 27:37Speaker 02

  Can you scale it, is it financially?

• 27:39Speaker 01

  I think like a lot of things, a lot of it is just sort of setting up supply chains. Like, how do you get everyone's used phones and used devices and funnel them, the batteries from them and those materials all to, you know, like setting, it's a different kind of supply chain. I think that that, again, people fixate on the technology. And a lot of times, you know, like in the car business, you know,

• 28:01Speaker 01

  there's not a lot of cutting-edge technology necessarily in car factories. People assume that's where these advantages come from. A lot of times it's just, you know, organizing stuff and having a supply chain built up and operating it, you know, kind of mundane stuff that people just sort of take for granted because it's not some cutting-edge technology.

• 28:16Matt Farah?

  Shaving half a second here in, you know, in process.

• 28:19Speaker 01

  Yep, yeah.

• 28:22Matt Farah?

  Dude, there's just like, there's so many things going on right now. So I just, we just were talking two episodes ago about this dude's video where he showed a LiDAR car versus the camera-based system.

• 28:35Speaker 01

  Mark Rober.

• 28:35Matt Farah?

  Mark Rober, thank you. And, and so you've now spent how much time studying FSD? And?

• 28:45Matt Farah?

  I mean, is there, is there anything drastically new to learn? Guys, support for the Smoking Tire comes from the podcast Drive with Jim Farley. You know Jim Farley, he's the CEO of Ford. Not only that, this guy has a GT40 and a Cobra and all kinds of amazing vintage American metal that he races wheel to wheel at places like Goodwood. He's a boss and you gotta check out this show. It's where Jim talks to some of his favorite people about what they drive and what drives them to succeed. They just started season three with some sick new guests, including Vicky Butler Henderson, the British racing driver and fifth gear personality, Randy Nonnenberg from Bring a Trailer, and T-Pain, the musician turned drifter.

• 29:29Matt Farah?

  Guy's got skills, actually. Um, I listened, uh, I listened to it the other day. It is great. Jim is a great interviewer, he's insightful, and, uh, it's interesting hearing these folks open up to him. I really am about it. I support Jim's venture here. To listen to Drive with Jim Farley, just search Drive with Jim Farley in any podcast app. That's Drive with Jim Farley, and thank you for supporting this episode. Is there anything drastically new to learn about the HW4 versus HW3? I mean, is, is all, is any of this shit meaningfully getting closer to what the thousand Waymos a day I see running around my city without people driving them are doing?

• 30:13Speaker 01

  No. Yeah. I mean, I, I, well, I, it's just a matter of, of, uh, you know, automation as a technology works a certain way. And, you know, so, so it's funny, when I, when Ludacris came out, I, I needed to get away from the, the journalism thing, and, and I went to Partners for Automated Vehicle Education, which is like this public education thing, and, and I spent, you know, almost two years there. I spent a lot of time thinking about, not trying to come up with new information about these technologies, but thinking about how to explain them in a really digestible way. Because that was really what the issue was. The issue has never been that there's secrets to this technology that are Totally beyond like comprehension.

• 30:58Speaker 01

  You know, to mere mortals. It's it's that you have to kind of break it down into the into essentially with a mental model. Like I for myself, like I don't even have a bachelor's degree, right? How is it that I've been able to talk to a lot of people? Like I could not engineer an autonomous vehicle, right? But I have a good mental model. That was like the big breakthrough for me was like understanding the mental model. And so what I've, one of the things I've tried to do with this book is, uh, or that I'm working on right now with this book is, is to just explain this technology in a really simple way. And I think the, the big breakthrough for me was, was understanding that the way people misunderstand it the most. And, and, and the reason people believe in Tesla and what they're doing is because when you say autonomous vehicle, people build a mental model for the technology that's based on what they know.

• 31:42Speaker 01

  And what they know is cars and vehicles. So they think it's a car that drives itself. Okay, and right, makes sense. But the problem is that a car has these two features. One is that it's affordable enough for you to own. And the other is that it goes everywhere.

• 31:56Matt Farah?

  Sure.

• 31:57Speaker 01

  Right, like whether you're driving a mile or a thousand miles, mountains, desert, wherever, it has to work. So it's essentially level five, what we call in the, in the automation. You know, and, and affordable enough for you to own. Well, those are the two hardest things for this technology to do. So if you, if you build your mental model around a car, you're going to have a very skewed. You know, that mental model is based on the attributes of, of not just a car, but a gas car, really. And, and that's going to confuse you about the technology. Instead, what you want to do is think of it as a robot. Right, because that's really what it is. It's, it's automation. And so in automation, you have, uh, it's a spectrum of automation, right? So, so on one end of that spectrum, you have something like a self-driving car, which is also what Elon is selling, which is a humanoid general purpose robot.

• 32:42Speaker 01

  Right, that's the self-driving car of robots. Because it does everything. It's, it's one device that does it all. Right, and that is the hardest thing to automate. There is no general purpose automation. The other end of that spectrum is like an arm with a tool inside of a cage.

• 32:57Matt Farah?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 32:58Speaker 01

  You know, and so you have the spectrum of, of robots. So, so the, the humanoid general purpose robot is science fiction. It's C three P O. Doesn't exist, it's not real, but that doesn't mean robots aren't real, robots are very real. The arm in the tool in the cage makes millions of dollars every second around the world, you know?

• 33:13Matt Farah?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 33:13Speaker 01

  And, and so there's this, so, so you have to like ground people in understanding of what the technology is. The, the, the, the reason that Tesla will never be able to deliver is the same reason that people want to believe in it. Right? It's, it's, it's not technologically plausible, but it's, it's how they've presented it is what people want. They just want their car that they own, right?

• 33:36Matt Farah?

  Yeah, I want, I want everything about a car that also can drive itself.

• 33:40Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 33:40Matt Farah?

  Anywhere at any time.

• 33:42Speaker 01

  That's right.

• 33:42Matt Farah?

  Which is fucking not happening anytime soon.

• 33:46Speaker 01

  It's a fantasy. And, and if you understand that fundamentally what you're doing, again, it's just on a mental model level. There's a lot of intricacies to the technologies and, and they're evolving with time, but fundamentally, you're building a model of the, of, of the world, right? And a model that helps you make decisions about how you navigate in the world. And if you think about, you know, uh, like a goldfish bowl, you can make a data model, right? You scan everything in that, all of the different things that are in it, it's constrained, it's, it's, it's finite. And so, and, and it's like a game of chess, right? Where, you know, or Go, where it's very complex, but it's constrained complexity.

• 34:19Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 34:20Speaker 01

  And so you can build models that are really, really better than humans at these kinds of constrained things. The other thing that you have to do is you have to give the, the agent like basically perfect information. Like in a game, like you play chess or Go, there's no confusion about where the pieces are.

• 34:34Matt Farah?

  Right.

• 34:34Speaker 01

  Everyone knows, right? That's hard to do in driving.

• 34:37Matt Farah?

  Sure.

• 34:38Speaker 01

  And this is why you need the robust sensor suites, right? So you need LiDAR and radar and, and really cutting edge expensive.

• 34:44Matt Farah?

  Acoustic and whatever.

• 34:45Speaker 01

  Yeah, ultrasonic, yeah. So, um, so, so that's why Waymo is working and Tesla isn't. Is that Waymo is treating this like a robot. They're saying a taxi never leaves the city, so you have constrained domain. And, you know, they're doing a job, there it's a revenue stream.

• 35:01Matt Farah?

  It's a commercial enterprise.

• 35:03Speaker 01

  Pays off the cost of the sensors and everything.

• 35:05Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 35:05Speaker 01

  This is a robot doing a job.

• 35:07Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 35:08Speaker 01

  That's not what a car is. So that's why that works. And that's, and that's why Tesla isn't working is because what Tesla's trying to do is just fundamentally so different.

• 35:16Matt Farah?

  Yeah. I'll tell you what it does do is it fucking derails public transit really nicely. And it basically allows you to to just continue selling a fantasy mostly indefinitely.

• 35:32Speaker 01

  Yeah, so this is this is the thing and like I feel like you're one of the only people I can like kind of talk to about this because the the we were talking about this before we started recording but the Venn diagram right of like people who who understand and are into cars but also see that there are other better ways of doing things.

• 35:49Matt Farah?

  Right.

• 35:49Speaker 01

  There's not a lot of lot of folks that fall in that in that divide.

• 35:52Matt Farah?

  Well, yeah, because it's car dependence and car enthusiasts and they're not the same thing.

• 35:55Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 35:56Matt Farah?

  You know, and the most car enthusiastic enthusiastic people I know.

• 36:01Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 36:01Matt Farah?

  Also fucking hate traffic and congestion and things like that in a pretty equal measure.

• 36:07Speaker 01

  Yeah, what's what's fascinating is that there's this real divide in in in driving automation tech between people who who get that this is something different than cars. That this technology fundamentally wants to be different than car. It's not a natural fit for cars versus the people who see that cars are this incredible like cars have all this scale, right? Like a car company builds 10 million cars a year. If that can be your platform that you can right then that it's like the the commercial appeal of that plus the sort of you don't have to change the market. You're meeting people where they are. There's all these things that make some people just say that and Elon is one of them. Elon is the leading figure in this of like you're nothing is going to change about how we get around.

• 36:47Speaker 01

  It's just that the car is going to drive for you versus and I think one of the really interesting challenges is that is that it's hard for folks in the tech sector and and you know who believe in this technology in a real way, the real version of it. It it's almost overwhelming for them to to to argue like, hey, like this is different than cars. This is but but people appeal like like technology appeals to people in a way that just saying like, hey, if we design cities in a different way, it would be better for like that's too abstract for people. I hope hopefully this cutting edge technology that has this like whiz bang thing, I think hopefully it will get people to start to understand mobility in a way that gets them this starts to pull them out of this car.

• 37:30Speaker 01

  Blinded view of of cars are the only way.

• 37:33Matt Farah?

  Once they realize that.

• 37:37Matt Farah?

  Personally owned self-driving cars are not a likely thing in their lifetime. Maybe, but like, man, people wanna live in the actual future so bad. Like, the future that was like sold to us in like the eighties and nineties, like, people will and and and that the Silicon Valley sort of hockey stick valuation mindset is pretty much that if you will the fucking future here, it'll just be, it'll come to you, it'll just be here.

• 38:08Speaker 01

  That's right.

• 38:08Matt Farah?

  And it just, it doesn't fucking work like that.

• 38:12Speaker 01

  Yeah. No, and it's and again, I think car enthusiasts have the app like can see this more clearly because if you if you enjoy driving, right, you don't enjoy driving in the city. We've talked about this before. Like, it's not just a matter of like, it's better for everyone to automate inside the city where you're just stuck in traffic anyway, and then you go outside the city. It's also, that's how the technology works best.

• 38:33Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 38:34Speaker 01

  Is if you constrain it, right, and so and so it's like if you're going, if you live on the edge of town, if you're going into the city, you take a robotaxi or a shuttle or something like that, because, whatever, you know, you're not having fun driving anyway.

• 38:46Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 38:46Speaker 01

  And if you're going out of the city, that's where the automation is gonna struggle with, you know, weather and dirt roads and poor signage and like weird animals and other kinds of like randomness is is, you know, and so and so that, but that's where you wanna drive anyway.

• 38:59Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 39:00Speaker 01

  So there's actually this real alignment between how the technology works and this like coexistence of auto enthusiasm and like mobility as a commodity.

• 39:09Matt Farah?

  Sort of same thing for the the EV daily driver and sports car for the weekend, assuming you don't live in a walkable place.

• 39:16Speaker 01

  Right.

• 39:16Matt Farah?

  You know, I don't, I don't covet a super fast EV to blast up a mountain on a weekend, but this fucking traffic jam right here, it is pretty nice.

• 39:27Speaker 01

  Yep, absolutely.

• 39:29Matt Farah?

  But we, uh, we, I've seen so much, uh, problems in cars solved with better training and better like, not even road design, like better like paint, like better road fucking painting.

• 39:42Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 39:42Matt Farah?

  Like, better markers of what to do and and sort of how to do it and avoiding of ambiguity kind of thing.

• 39:49Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 39:50Matt Farah?

  Like, I just feel like we're, we've not. We're so ready to give up control of our vehicles to computers and we're nowhere near what an optimized human driver looks like, like not even close.

• 40:03Speaker 01

  The crazy, the really, the thing that I really didn't expect was, you know, after almost 10 years of like riding in AVs and autonomous vehicles, and trying to understand and learn that technology, it's given me such an appreciation for driving.

• 40:21Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 40:22Speaker 01

  It's like I've learned to see driving through new eyes, when you start to understand what is hard for them, so like one of the classic examples, one of the hardest things for an AV is like someone on a corner, like, and like people don't think about this as a pedestrian, right, but like, like if you are walking up to a corner, but then you sort of stop and you look around or you pull out your phone or whatever, like there's this ambiguity in your movements that are, it's literally from a statistical, like if you're using statistics essentially and data about the world around you to understand what is this person gonna do, you become unpredictable at a certain point. Whereas if you walk straight and with like purpose.

• 41:00Matt Farah?

  Yeah, all the demonstration is people walking across a road, it's not someone like hovering about going, oh, where am I gonna go?

• 41:07Speaker 02

  Well, that's body language that we've learned to identify as people and you can go, look at that person, like if you're driving and approaching the corner and you're like, oh, they're slowing, phone's coming out, they're looking both directions, oh, okay, they're probably not sure which crosswalk to use and we can kind of assess, but like the Waymo car might not be able to do that yet.

• 41:23Speaker 01

  And we have, we have the ability to put ourselves in that person's shoes without even thinking about it consciously, like it really, it not only makes you understand like how complex driving is, but it also makes you realize how much your subconscious brain is doing. You know, one of the things with Tesla that hit me really hard early on was like I realized people think the car is driving itself because the wheel is automated and the pedals are automated. What's driving? It's moving the wheel and operating the pedals, except that no, those are the very last parts of the driving task. See, and this again, you study this technology and they're like, there's this thing called the driving task. And, and what is that? Well, it starts with situational awareness.

• 42:06Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 42:07Speaker 01

  What's going on around you? What are the static parts of your, of your street scene? What are the dynamic parts? Of those dynamic parts, which ones are moving, what speed? And like, once you start to understand that a computer has to basically brute force all this stuff to understand what's going around it.

• 42:21Matt Farah?

  And they're doing it bottom up. And we- They're doing it just based on like, what are these pictures? And like, humans go the other way.

• 42:29Speaker 01

  Yeah, we're doing it with-

• 42:30Matt Farah?

  Completely inverted.

• 42:31Speaker 01

  A burger in our hand. And like, you know, a phone call going, like, and we're still able to like, have these incredibly like nuanced perceptions of, of what people are doing right now and what they're about to do. Um, it's incredible. And, and yeah, what I think the tragic part of it is, is that we don't appreciate, right? Like, if you really understand the technology and you get into it, it makes you appreciate driving more. And it, I don't know, like, i- i- it, it's kind of frustrating that people are so anxious to, to just get rid of that responsibility. For me, I see a parallel also with like, political stuff. People just sort of like to abdicate responsibility generally. People feel like, I wanna wield ultimate power, I wanna have 500 horsepower, or whatever, but like, I don't wanna have to try too hard.

• 43:17Speaker 01

  Like, I kinda wanna just be like lazy about, and it's like, this is kinda how we live our lives in like so many ways.

• 43:22Matt Farah?

  Yeah, I wa- I, I, yeah, I want all the power, I want none of the responsibility.

• 43:27Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 43:27Matt Farah?

  And, uh,

• 43:29Speaker 01

  But-

• 43:29Matt Farah?

  Yeah, that sounds right.

• 43:30Speaker 01

  But, but the problem is that when you-

• 43:32Matt Farah?

  Literally, that sounds so much like America.

• 43:34Speaker 01

  But when you look at the, the, the solutions that we're holding out hope for, not only are they far off from delivering everything we want them to-

• 43:41Matt Farah?

  Yeah, yeah, we'd rather have sci-fi, wait, we'd rather wait for the possibility of sci-fi-

• 43:46Speaker 01

  Than do the hard work ourselves.

• 43:47Matt Farah?

  Than move a fucking sidewalk.

• 43:48Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 43:49Matt Farah?

  Or something like, that we already know how to do.

• 43:52Speaker 01

  That's right.

• 43:52Matt Farah?

  Yeah, and works in other places.

• 43:54Speaker 01

  It's very frustrating.

• 43:55Matt Farah?

  Yeah, cra- it's insanity.

• 43:57Speaker 01

  Yeah. It's, it's a little bit like religion in its own way.

• 44:01Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 44:01Speaker 01

  You know, like, something, something will just descend and, and just sort of take care, right? It's like the, yeah.

• 44:07Matt Farah?

  Yeah, life's shitty, but like, don't worry. We got you in heaven.

• 44:11Speaker 01

  Yeah. There's a, there's a, a joke at the fall of the Soviet Union, that there's two ways that Russia was gonna sort of turn it around. There's the, the unlikely way and the impossible way. Like, the unlikely way was that the, the clouds would part and Archangel Michael would come down and magically fix everything. And the impossible way was that the Russian people would roll up their sleeves and just fix it themselves.

• 44:32Matt Farah?

  Oh god, this doesn't sound familiar at all, does it? Shit, god. It's all good, everything's good. Everything is good.

• 44:42Speaker 01

  I'm having a great time.

• 44:43Matt Farah?

  Yeah. What makes you happy these days?

• 44:46Speaker 01

  Going to Tesla protests.

• 44:47Matt Farah?

  Knowing, have you been going to Tesla protests?

• 44:49Speaker 01

  I, this last week was the seventh week in a row that, I basically organized the Portland one.

• 44:53Matt Farah?

  Really?

• 44:53Speaker 01

  And by organize, I posted about it on Blue Sky.

• 44:56Matt Farah?

  That's it.

• 44:56Speaker 01

  And people show up, yeah.

• 44:57Matt Farah?

  How many people showed up?

• 44:58Speaker 01

  Five hundred and fifty, I think was the count last week.

• 45:00Matt Farah?

  Whoa, that's pretty cool.

• 45:01Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 45:01Matt Farah?

  And what are they doing when they're there?

• 45:03Speaker 01

  Oh, it's so, it gets, that's the best part, it gets more and more fun every week. So we get, we got bubbles, we have like, three different DJs, like, it's a party, people, I, so, I've been, for the second week in a row, I realized, I had this, this, it's a, the costume that I had, it's Katy Perry Left Shark, you know, from the, it's that shark?

• 45:24Matt Farah?

  Yeah, I remember.

• 45:25Speaker 01

  And I just realized, like, I've been trying to make it fun, like, many years ago, for reasons that we don't need to get into. I happened to have it lying around, and I realized, like, because I've never done this before, I'm an internet guy or whatever, and like, you realize you're on the side of the road, you're really protesting for the cars driving past.

• 45:41Matt Farah?

  Yes, definitely.

• 45:42Speaker 01

  You gotta be visible, you gotta catch their eyes, so, I started thinking about the signs, how do we make signs that are like, as visible as possible with messages that really hit people? And I realized, like, wait, if I put on this shark costume like that, and, oh boy, does it catch people's attention. So, we get like, in the median, on this like, quite busy road, we have like, a dance party essentially with like, bubbles, I'm in my shark costume with a sign that's like, sell today, and like, we're just having fun.

• 46:06Speaker 02

  You're like a sandwich card spinner, but with like, a better message, yeah?

• 46:09Speaker 01

  Essentially, I have huge respect for the people who do that job, I, it's a lot of work.

• 46:13Speaker 02

  Can I ask what, like, what is the, uh, agenda or objective of the protest?

• 46:18Speaker 01

  Yeah, so the, the, the goal is to, it's funny, because I think when it first started, the goal was just sort of like, hey, this, Elon's doing bad things, Elon owns this company, we're gonna, just gonna go to the stores, as a way to-

• 46:30Speaker 02

  Just to express your distaste, yeah, sure.

• 46:33Speaker 01

  Right, it's like, protest has this reflex, and that's great, and I think for a lot of people, that is, that's what it's about. The cool thing about, about the Tesla protest is that it's diverse. People are coming there- All ages, all backgrounds, like you read the signs and they all have different, you'll have sort of, I think, the people, I consider my people who are like, you know, sell the stock, sell the car, but you see people with the Ukraine flag, you see people talking about Constitution, about USAID, there's, you know, Elon's pissing off all these people for all these reasons. A lot of people who are coming in are brand new to protesting. Some of them are old folks who've been protesting forever, some of them are brand new. For me, what I'm trying to bring to the movement is this idea that like, this guy's vulnerable.

• 47:15Speaker 01

  And the thing is, is that people don't realize, people look at the wealth on paper that he has, and it's like, compared to it's like the Death Star.

• 47:23Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 47:24Speaker 01

  Right? It's just like this overwhelming thing, and it's just like, oh, we can never, billionaires in America, we can never do anything about this, right? The thing is, is that Tesla is his only company that has ever turned a profit, ever. None of his companies have ever, at least, maybe not ever.

• 47:38Matt Farah?

  And even then, it's like, not actually that much, right?

• 47:40Speaker 01

  It has never, and again, I don't have like, the exact number, but no, it's not like, again, it's not like saying we need to boycott Facebook and Amazon, which are hard products to pull people away from.

• 47:51Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 47:51Speaker 01

  And very profitable companies. No, no, this is $50,000 vehicles, or more, that have really adequate competition.

• 47:59Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 48:00Speaker 01

  And are frankly, kind of getting outdated a little bit.

• 48:03Matt Farah?

  They're old cars.

• 48:04Speaker 01

  Yeah, so they're expensive.

• 48:05Matt Farah?

  The only car they have that isn't old sucks.

• 48:08Speaker 01

  Yeah. So that's kind of, you know, we have the momentum on our side. So like, most of the time when you're boycotting, it's because you're up against like, this unstoppable force. We have it the opposite. We, they're already, the business is already crashing. Like, it's really at an inflection point. The US market is the inflection point of the inflection point. And so the goal is to stigmatize the brand, to let people know, like, you know, hey, like, you want to go buy a Tesla, you're gonna see your neighbors out there saying, fuck that. Right? You want to service a Tesla, you're gonna see your neighbors out there saying, fuck that. You want to supercharge? Same deal. Like, don't, because the thing is, is that this is the only way to support Elon.

• 48:45Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 48:46Speaker 01

  It it's his only source of cash.

• 48:48Matt Farah?

  He doesn't have a meme coin yet. He will.

• 48:50Speaker 01

  It is his meme coin. It's been.

• 48:52Matt Farah?

  That's actually, god damn it, that's true.

• 48:54Speaker 01

  It's been his meme coins since 2013.

• 48:57Matt Farah?

  It's like.

• 48:57Speaker 01

  Before that term existed.

• 48:59Matt Farah?

  Damn it. Damn it. Yeah.

• 49:02Speaker 01

  This is why I think he's having problems with XAI and this other stuff is because those are also basically meme coins. They're all meme coins essentially. And people are like, it was sort of easier when it was like, oh, Tesla is the pro- you know, when like SpaceX would do a launch and all of a sudden Tesla stock would go up. Because it was it was the meme coin. Now it's like a little more confusing about like, which is the, you know, how does that all work?

• 49:24Matt Farah?

  Which stock should be affected by the Sieg Heil?

• 49:26Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 49:26Matt Farah?

  And then which stock should be affected by the second Sieg Heil?

• 49:30Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 49:31Matt Farah?

  Just to confirm the Sieg Heil.

• 49:33Speaker 01

  Yeah. Yeah.

• 49:34Matt Farah?

  It's important to do two.

• 49:35Speaker 02

  And cosign them.

• 49:36Matt Farah?

  Cosign the second, well, yeah.

• 49:40Matt Farah?

  It's okay.

• 49:41Speaker 01

  Importing white South Africans, like, I just, it's so mind boggling. But, but yeah, that's what makes me, honestly, and what I tell people, right, A, it's like, he's vulnerable. We can bring him down. If this stock keeps crashing, like, if their Q3 numbers suck.

• 49:55Matt Farah?

  Where does it have to get to for it to become like, I don't know if it's not like margin call, but like,

• 50:01Speaker 01

  We got a ways to.

• 50:02Matt Farah?

  That level.

• 50:03Speaker 01

  So for the margin call, we have a ways to go.

• 50:04Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 50:04Speaker 01

  But the reality is, is that if a stock is not built on fundamentals, it's built on vibes.

• 50:09Matt Farah?

  Hmm.

• 50:09Speaker 01

  And the momentum, he's always had the momentum, like, for a decade, like, I've been reporting stuff that would be a big problem for any other company. And like, maybe the stock, myself and others, by the way, lots of other people have been reporting really like horrible, horrible stuff about this company. The stock would maybe go down a little bit and then it would go right back up. Now, they're the ones fighting momentum. They're the ones where the stock went down for like two weeks and they had to get the president up there, like, you know, selling cars in front of the White House.

• 50:34Matt Farah?

  That was sad, man.

• 50:36Speaker 01

  And that got them like three days of like half-hearted bump and then, you know, heading right back down again. And so, we have all the momentum on our side, plus, plus, it gets us out from the doom scrolling, gets us out from behind the computer.

• 50:47Speaker 02

  Gets you outside, vitamin D exercise.

• 50:49Speaker 01

  Seriously, go, go, like, hang out with other cool people.

• 50:52Matt Farah?

  Nickname for a Cybertruck? I'm really kind of vibing with Wankpanzer right now.

• 50:59Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think Wankpanzer is kind of the.

• 51:00Matt Farah?

  Vonkponza. Vonkponza is quite good.

• 51:04Speaker 01

  Yeah. Swastika car thing.

• 51:07Matt Farah?

  Swastika car, yeah, I'm down with that.

• 51:10Speaker 01

  One of the signs.

• 51:11Speaker 02

  Incel Camino is still my favorite.

• 51:13Speaker 01

  Incel Camino.

• 51:14Matt Farah?

  Camino, damn.

• 51:16Speaker 02

  That was like a couple of weeks ago. I didn't come up with it, that's genius.

• 51:19Matt Farah?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 51:20Speaker 01

  One of the signs I made for the protest is, is it says, all Teslas look like Cybertrucks to me. And then it's the, it's the, it's the metal urinal that looks like a Cybertruck, you know, the triangular metal urinal.

• 51:31Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 51:31Speaker 01

  And, and I kind of want to do it because I do feel like the people in the Model 3s, the Model Ys feel a little like safe and anonymous. Because it's like, oh no, everyone's like focused on the Cybertrucks. I kind of want to be like, no, no, we see you too.

• 51:40Speaker 02

  What if, so what if like, if Elon left the company and not shadow CEO like quote left, but really was doing all the things. But if, you know, if the board, which if they grew a spine first and then formally kicked him out. And I say that because they rewarded him this giant compensation package, et cetera, et cetera.

• 51:56Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 51:56Speaker 02

  But like, what if he was removed from it, would then you have this, you and other people have this like antagonism towards the brand? Or is it more about him?

• 52:05Speaker 01

  I mean, so that's, it's a good question. I just don't think it's possible. Or, or, or, anything's possible. I think it's vanishingly unlikely. And I think, I think.

• 52:15Speaker 02

  Saint Michael will come down before that will happen.

• 52:17Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, exactly. And, and it's the, the compensation package, like you mentioned. That was, that was the litmus test, right? Like if you're going to go up against the Delaware Chancery Court, right? And say that like Delaware corporate law is what's the problem? Like that's, you're never, you're never as a, as a corporate board, you know, of a company that's worth the rest of the industry combined. You're never going to step back from that. So as far as I'm concerned, like that was the, I wondered about this a lot until about a year ago. And when that came out, I was like, that's it. Like there's no AEB here. Like Elon's going to drive this into the wall and, and like.

• 52:54Matt Farah?

  If we're lucky, you know, it'll be like before if he wrecks the entire country, if we're lucky.

• 53:00Speaker 01

  I mean Tesla is getting wrecked faster than the country. It's close.

• 53:04Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 53:04Speaker 01

  It's close. He's working hard on both.

• 53:06Matt Farah?

  It is.

• 53:06Speaker 01

  But Tesla's in.

• 53:07Matt Farah?

  Tug of war between Tesla and the rest of the country or collision course.

• 53:11Speaker 01

  I mean Tesla's basically been in sort of holding off like pretty significant decline for like two years now. They've just been lowering the price and lowering the margins and like they can't do that forever.

• 53:22Matt Farah?

  There are no other new models.

• 53:25Speaker 01

  No.

• 53:26Matt Farah?

  Like facelifted Model Y, like. Okay.

• 53:29Speaker 01

  The Model 3 staved off decline for what, like?

• 53:32Matt Farah?

  Six months?

• 53:33Speaker 01

  A quarter, two, two?

• 53:34Matt Farah?

  Yeah, maybe.

• 53:34Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 53:34Matt Farah?

  I mean.

• 53:35Speaker 01

  Model Y will do the same.

• 53:37Matt Farah?

  And to be fair, like, in a vacuum, like, the Model 3 and Model Y are like, they're okay cars. There's nothing, I don't have anything like, they're like, medium shitty, but they're not like tha- they're not the only cars that are medium shitty.

• 53:49Speaker 01

  But they're old.

• 53:50Matt Farah?

  Oh, for sure.

• 53:51Speaker 01

  And the people who made those cars are gone. Doug Field.

• 53:54Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 53:54Speaker 01

  Who is essentially like, the guy, right, he's at Ford now. Like, the talent, and we're talking about the fans.

• 53:59Matt Farah?

  Lucid and Rivian and Ford and, yeah.

• 54:02Speaker 01

  The talent leaves for the exact same reasons that the smart fans do.

• 54:06Matt Farah?

  Yeah, well, you wanna fucking defend your boss's Sig Heil?

• 54:09Speaker 01

  Do you wanna, do you wanna, do you wanna have the Cybertruck on your resume as an automotive engineer?

• 54:14Matt Farah?

  Yikes.

• 54:15Speaker 01

  I mean.

• 54:16Matt Farah?

  It was, we thought it looked-

• 54:18Speaker 01

  Professional and personal reasons to that.

• 54:20Matt Farah?

  No, no, we thought it looked bad, and then we drove one, and it was like, holy shit, I thought it just looked bad, but like, this is terrible.

• 54:26Speaker 02

  It was funny, remember that, that electric scooter showed up for like, two days, and the guy that designed that had also worked on Cybertruck? And that scooter fell apart in the first 12 hours, and they took it back.

• 54:35Matt Farah?

  Did you see that thing, the scooter, it's a scooter that looks like it matches with a Cybertruck?

• 54:39Speaker 02

  Design language, exactly, it's overpriced, and it, yeah.

• 54:42Matt Farah?

  The, the, I, I don't understand, I mean, look, I, I, I do like little, it's not, I don't wanna call it micro-mobility, but I love scooters, and I like, I little like, electric scooters and shit like that. But the $10,000 luxury moped.

• 54:59Speaker 01

  That was not what was missing from the market.

• 55:01Matt Farah?

  I just, there's so many of these things now, and some of them are beautifully made, admittedly. But I rode one that like, looked like a fucking Norton Commando, but was slower than my Vespa 300, and it cost $10,000.

• 55:17Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 55:17Matt Farah?

  And I was like, well, who the fuck is this for? Like, that's crazy.

• 55:20Speaker 01

  Yeah. No, and, and I mean, the Cybertruck, I mean, 2% of their, of their reservations were converted to sales, something like that.

• 55:27Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 55:27Speaker 01

  2%.

• 55:28Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 55:28Speaker 01

  Eight recalls in the first year, and this is the thing that people have to look at, right?

• 55:31Matt Farah?

  The 2% is important, because we said, people like you and people like me, said, the low number- On the reservation.

• 55:40Speaker 01

  Yup.

• 55:40Matt Farah?

  Was a fucking scam to get people to go, oh fuck it, I'll throw a hundred bucks with that and see if it sticks. And then they could go get a loan and say, we have two million reservations, this fucking thing. Knowing full well, they'd never convert that many sales. How big was the loan they got from that? Huge, right?

• 55:59Speaker 01

  Yeah, I don't know if they were even raising capital at that point, but yeah, I mean, it certainly pumped the stock. I mean, they were, they, they claimed over a million, um, of them and, you know, they ran out of reservations right when they supposedly hit gross margins. Which means basically this vehicle has been a money loser, continues to be, there's no way they're making actual profits on it. Um, I think it's gonna be like the Model X. I don't think the Model X has ever made a profit as a program. The Cybertruck ever will unless they, I don't know, get the government to just.

• 56:31Speaker 01

  Production or something.

• 56:32Matt Farah?

  Did that pan out, that story of the four hundred million supposed purchase of?

• 56:36Speaker 01

  The deal is not done. It would be four hundred thousand over like five years.

• 56:40Matt Farah?

  Four hundred million.

• 56:41Speaker 01

  I'm sorry, four hundred million, yeah, four hundred million dollars worth of them over five years, which I don't remember what the unit, like how many units that comes out to. It would, it would be helpful to them, but I don't think that alone will, will fix that.

• 56:52Matt Farah?

  It won't, but if they, a little bit here, a little bit here, some.

• 56:57Speaker 01

  Get the Russians to buy some.

• 56:58Matt Farah?

  Maybe you gotta buy some, maybe you gotta buy some. I saw another story today that was like the, the, the, the, there was some sort of government employee sort of savings account that they had to buy Tesla stock.

• 57:12Speaker 01

  Well, so the, and the thing with the Cybertruck too, it's not just, I mean, it's the biggest flop in the car business that I can remember in my lifetime, I think. I, I don't know that there's been, in terms of having a million pre-orders.

• 57:22Matt Farah?

  Oh, hype versus, yeah, well, cause who takes, no one takes pre-orders. People, they, they don't, they just, when they're available to sell, you can order one. I don't, I'm, this preorder thing started with Tesla.

• 57:35Speaker 01

  Yeah, well, exactly, but, and it's because, right, so with Tesla.

• 57:37Matt Farah?

  Am I making that up?

• 57:39Speaker 01

  I mean, functionally, yeah, like, like, other than, I don't know, maybe like, you know, limited edition Ferraris or something like that.

• 57:45Matt Farah?

  Maybe a limited edition Ferrari, yeah, maybe, but, but, but for cars for regular people, that's not a thing.

• 57:51Speaker 01

  Yeah, well, it's because Tesla's always, they've always had, right, there's Tesla that's right now, which is, sometimes matters in terms of the stock price or whatever, but it's always, there's always what's next.

• 58:02Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 58:02Speaker 01

  Always, as long as this company's been around, it's always, what really matters is what's next. And the problem that they have now, I mean, among others, one of the biggest ones, I think people are still just starting to like chew on a little bit and start to understand, is that what the Cybertruck says about their ability to have anything next.

• 58:19Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 58:20Speaker 01

  Because right now, we're like, the fans and the bulls are like waiting for them to show some new products, something to like get shit back on track, right, get that, those old feelings back. Well, if the Cybertruck-

• 58:30Matt Farah?

  The Optimus, Optimus robot ain't doing it?

• 58:33Speaker 01

  There's no, I mean, I think even a lot of the fans understand that like that is way, way, way off.

• 58:38Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 58:38Speaker 01

  Um, and it's not gonna, they're, they're not gonna have that out to people at a time that's gonna make a material difference in what's going on with the stock. So, so what are they gonna do, right? So they've done the facelift thing, but the Cybertruck is their only new product since the Model 3 Y, which are essentially the same thing, basically, right? So it's their first, only product in, in, in a decade, and it's garbage, like, it's just bad, it's poorly conceived, like, the batteries don't make sense, like, there's all kinds of just really bad things about it. How you look at that and say, oh, no, no, but like, they're gonna come up with something else and like, it's gonna be great.

• 59:14Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 59:14Speaker 01

  Well, what, what makes you think it's not gonna be just another Cybertruck?

• 59:18Matt Farah?

  They need, they need a new, an all-new, like, regular car, which is really hard.

• 59:23Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 59:24Matt Farah?

  Really hard.

• 59:25Speaker 01

  Yep. Um, yeah, a mid-sized crossover.

• 59:27Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 59:27Speaker 01

  Where's their mid-sized crossover, like, Jesus Christ.

• 59:30Matt Farah?

  Essentially an all-new Model Y.

• 59:32Speaker 01

  Uh, yeah, or even like a bigger.

• 59:34Matt Farah?

  Slightly bigger, maybe, yeah.

• 59:36Speaker 02

  Like a better Model X.

• 59:37Speaker 01

  Like a big, like, something with a proper third row.

• 59:39Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 59:39Speaker 01

  That, I mean, right, look at, look, that's what all the, right, the EV9 and, and everyone's coming out with.

• 59:44Matt Farah?

  They essentially made a Model X that didn't have the fucking gullwing, it had regular Model Y doors, and it was essentially a three-row Model Y.

• 59:53Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 59:53Matt Farah?

  Maybe they call it the XXY, that's really fucking freaky, you know?

• 59:58Speaker 01

  The XXL?

• 59:59Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 1:00:00Speaker 01

  Oh, that was me.

• 1:00:01Matt Farah?

  That's better.

• 1:00:01Speaker 01

  Call me Tesla.

• 1:00:02Matt Farah?

  That's better.

• 1:00:03Speaker 01

  Consulting services.

• 1:00:04Matt Farah?

  I like that. Uh, I think we have a few on the Patreon and we should get to those. Patreon.com slash the smoking tire podcast. You want to ask our guests questions? You want to watch the live stream? You want to get the show before everybody else? You want to get an ad free listening experience and more? Patreon.com slash the smoking tire podcast. Ted Stryker says, uh, is, is it, oh, I think this is maybe sort of, nah, not that. Ted Stryker says, is it possible for Tesla to right the ship if they decided to? Or is it too late?

• 1:00:37Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, I, I think it's too late. I think it's too late. I think, you know, getting new product

• 1:00:43Speaker 01

  to market is, is going to be hard. Um, they're, the idea that when they get new product to market, it's going to be something compelling that's going to get the, the sort of sense of progress. It's sort of the iPhone problem, right? Where it's like, you got the iPhone, you can sort of update it, but like, what is the new thing that like really brings the energy in and?

• 1:01:05Matt Farah?

  Yeah, Apple hasn't sold me a new thing in a very long time that I'm interested in.

• 1:01:09Speaker 01

  Yep. And the fundamental, the fundamental problem really with Tesla is that it's, it's the strength and the weakness is, is it's a cult. Right? And, and we were just talking about, you know, a cult in the modern era with the financial incentives and the internet. We've seen what is possible with that, but we also have seen, right, what, what the downside is. Which is that the talent leaves, the smart fans leave, the energy just sort of goes because it just becomes all about this guy. And, and, and then the board literally can't stop him from doing the dumbest shit possible all the time.

• 1:01:39Matt Farah?

  Replacement theory.

• 1:01:41Speaker 01

  Yeah. So honestly, like I, I'm, I'm shocked that the stock is not falling faster just because there, if you really game out what could turn this all around, like it's really just a binary bet on, on, on FSD. And so I guess by the end of this year, we'll.

• 1:01:57Matt Farah?

  No, next year, by the internet. Uh, limited slip when wet says a Model X is one of the few used EVs that fits my family. How would you D Musk one? How is that true? How is that true?

• 1:02:12Speaker 01

  I don't, I don't know.

• 1:02:13Matt Farah?

  There's other three row EVs.

• 1:02:15Speaker 01

  Yeah, there sure are.

• 1:02:16Matt Farah?

  Like, well, and the Model X is even- A Rivian R1S is a three row SUV. And that's a fabulous vehicle.

• 1:02:22Speaker 01

  The EV9, I, I really-

• 1:02:23Matt Farah?

  EV9?

• 1:02:24Speaker 01

  I haven't driven it, but it looks-

• 1:02:25Matt Farah?

  I've been in EV9, it's nice.

• 1:02:26Speaker 01

  Great, yeah. Yeah, I would, I would say, yeah, the Model X is like one of the muskiest Teslas you can get, so.

• 1:02:32Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 1:02:33Speaker 01

  And, and buying one used, oh my god, the, the reliability on those doors and everything and, and, and especially if you don't like Musk, this is the thing that people really need to understand. You can't get a Tesla serviced anywhere else. You cannot service your Tesla with that. So like, people who are like, oh, but mine's old and I bought it before Elon was crazy and I've got the bumper sticker and all that. Great, like, I don't want to be an asshole about this, but like, you cannot get your car serviced without putting a dollar in Elon's pocket.

• 1:02:58Matt Farah?

  This is a very important question to ask you. What year Tesla? Is it okay? According-

• 1:03:07Speaker 01

  It's a great question.

• 1:03:08Matt Farah?

  What, what year does this, does the bumper sticker no longer become even plausibly true?

• 1:03:15Speaker 01

  Yeah, so I mean-

• 1:03:17Matt Farah?

  For me, 2020 is it.

• 1:03:18Speaker 01

  Yeah, I'd say if, if you're like, if you want to consider yourself a hater, I feel like 2018 is, is the, right? That was the pedo guy.

• 1:03:25Matt Farah?

  Yeah, right, right.

• 1:03:26Speaker 01

  That was for me, the thing where it was like, I was like, kind of willing to go, you know, but there were people who, who were like fans, who, who all of a sudden were like defending him calling the guy a pedophile and I was like, wait a second, you don't need to be doing this.

• 1:03:39Matt Farah?

  Another guy, someone brought up pedo guy the other day at a press launch I was at. And somebody was like, well, you know, it could have meant, and actually gamed out the other things it could have meant.

• 1:03:50Speaker 01

  Oh no.

• 1:03:50Matt Farah?

  Just like the people who, who game out the other things a Sieg Heil could mean. It's like, at a political rally fucking twice? And this guy's supposed to run shit? And he's not dumb enough to not Sieg Heil twice at a fascist rally?

• 1:04:04Speaker 01

  And then Bannon was like, this is like a good idea. People just don't need to do this stuff.

• 1:04:08Matt Farah?

  Yeah, it's crazy.

• 1:04:09Speaker 01

  Yeah, so it's a 2018. I would say, I would say, you know, if you bought one during the pandemic, you've lost so much money on it that like,

• 1:04:18Speaker 01

  you paid your, you paid your, what's it, your indulgence.

• 1:04:21Matt Farah?

  So, I couldn't even remember the guy's name, and we didn't stop and look at it downstairs, but the car that has been here the longest, because we opened in the middle of the pandemic,

• 1:04:32Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:04:33Matt Farah?

  is a Model X.

• 1:04:34Speaker 01

  Oh.

• 1:04:35Matt Farah?

  It is a 2020, I guess.

• 1:04:37Speaker 01

  Probably, yeah.

• 1:04:38Matt Farah?

  It came in here with 1,700 miles on it in September of 2020, and the guy had fucked off to his other house in Europe.

• 1:04:46Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 1:04:47Matt Farah?

  And he's never come back, and the cars never left. And it has just, it was $175,000, and he pays every month, his credit card goes through, and I don't know, whatever, but like, this is, he has fucking probably burned $1,500 a month in depreciation, just sitting there.

• 1:05:08Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:05:09Matt Farah?

  Crazy.

• 1:05:09Speaker 01

  In the, in the least depreciating circumstance, right?

• 1:05:11Matt Farah?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 1:05:12Speaker 01

  Temperature controlled, exactly where you want it, yeah. This is why, this is why, like, you know, people, everyone for years has been like, oh, you know, Tesla's, you know, they're just gonna, this is the, the cutting edge of the future that we're all gonna just live in, and when you, when you dig into the stories of individual Tesla, I, I make fun of Alex Roy, my co-host on the Autonic Cast all the time about this stuff, because he's like, my, my Model 3 is the greatest car I've ever owned. I'm like, bro, you own a Citroen SM and a Morgan 3 wheeler?

• 1:05:38Matt Farah?

  Right.

• 1:05:38Speaker 01

  Like, people need to understand this context when you say stuff like that.

• 1:05:42Matt Farah?

  You have the two worst cars ever made.

• 1:05:45Speaker 01

  Like, great, amazing cars in their way, but terrible in their own way. So like, I get it, when you say the Model 3 is great, like, now I know what you mean, and I can agree with you, but like, without that context, people will get the wrong idea.

• 1:05:57Matt Farah?

  Yeah, yeah. He's, I love him, but like, yeah, yeah, he buys, he buys like, like sadistic cars. Yeah.

• 1:06:06Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:06:07Matt Farah?

  He buys cars where like, if he were to call me one day and be like, uh, my car turned into three cars after hitting a pothole, I'd be like, yeah, that sounds right. Yeah.

• 1:06:18Matt Farah?

  Koji Koji says, Ed, still got the Z3M coupe?

• 1:06:22Speaker 01

  I do, I do.

• 1:06:23Matt Farah?

  Is that the car you drive? Is that your car?

• 1:06:25Speaker 01

  Yeah, that's, yeah, so I have that and I have a Tacoma.

• 1:06:28Matt Farah?

  Okay, of course, because it's Portland.

• 1:06:29Speaker 01

  Well, and, and, and really, the vast majority of my driving is to the mountain or to, you know, the desert or somewhere.

• 1:06:35Matt Farah?

  What are we doing on the mountain?

• 1:06:37Speaker 01

  Uh, I ski, my partner snowboards.

• 1:06:40Matt Farah?

  Uh, oh, Stolberg, shout out to Stolberg who has a question, but that reminds me, Stolberg sent us the Taconic Distillery Sampler section. One of my favorite whiskeys from New York. Uh, we got the bourbon, we've got the rye, and we've got the maple bourbon dessert one in celebration of the 1,000. Shout out to Stolberg, who says, um, oh yeah, any insight about the story about four Tesla dealers? Which, we need to probably review what that word means, but, um, who said they sold 8,653 cars in three days in Canada?

• 1:07:22Speaker 01

  Yeah, so I, I saw the reporting around that, you know, I'm, I'm working on this book on the self-driving stuff and, and organizing protests, so unfortunately, and also putting on a AV event here, which is why I'm here in LA, so, I've got, I had a lot on my plate, I'm not really doing day-to-day reporting, um, on stuff like this right now, so unfortunately, I don't have, thanks for the whiskey, I don't have great insight for you on that. What I will say, though, is that, that, one of the things that has changed fundamentally is that, for the first time, we have regulators who don't see their job as sort of going easy on, on Tesla, I think in Canada in particular, I think.

• 1:07:56Matt Farah?

  In other countries, not here.

• 1:07:58Speaker 01

  In other, in other, yeah, yeah, yeah, critically. Uh, so, I'm very much looking forward to Canada, uh, bringing the smackdown on this stuff and, and not giving them an inch.

• 1:08:05Matt Farah?

  Europe too, maybe?

• 1:08:07Speaker 01

  I, I sure hope so, and boy, do they, Europe probably has a lot of, a lot of rope, uh, to play with there, because I do not think Tesla's been really, like, in compliance with the whole type of approval.

• 1:08:16Matt Farah?

  I thought I saw there was a big, big drop in Norway, but then it kinda came back.

• 1:08:21Speaker 01

  Yeah, Nor- so, yeah, Europe can be a little spiky because of how they do deliveries, especially because most of them are coming out of China now. Um, and so, but, but no, I mean, I think across the board, I think thirty, forty, fifty, sixty, I think Germany was down like seventy percent.

• 1:08:35Matt Farah?

  Germany was down forty-nine percent in the first two months of the year, so it's year over year.

• 1:08:39Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 1:08:40Matt Farah?

  Um, Norway, down forty-four percent year over year.

• 1:08:44Speaker 01

  France was the one that was down like sixty percent and like, was that in January or February?

• 1:08:49Matt Farah?

  Let me see.

• 1:08:51Matt Farah?

  Um, okay, I have, uh, some of these are, uh, these are kind of interesting, okay. Um, I think this one is, uh, intended to somehow challenge you. I don't really agree. But Nice Cam says, Ed, do you agree with the sentiment that Tesla is no longer simply a car company? I feel Matt and Zach don't understand that much of the stock price upside is heavily weighted on software, service, Doge, and their potential in the humanoid industry. Would you not agree?

• 1:09:23Speaker 01

  So it's Dojo, not Doge.

• 1:09:25Matt Farah?

  Is Dojo different? I thought that was a typo.

• 1:09:27Speaker 01

  No, Dojo is, uh, is their AI training, or it's for the, the self-driving training.

• 1:09:33Matt Farah?

  Sorry, I thought it was a typo and it was Doge. Okay.

• 1:09:36Speaker 01

  Yeah, Dojo, yeah, no, believe me, it's, it's hard to keep a little straight. Um, look, so, yeah, I agree that as a stock, so, so Tesla is no longer simply a car company in the sense that this, it's a stock pump.

• 1:09:48Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 1:09:49Speaker 01

  Right? Like, in a lot of ways, what the, what Ludacris is about.

• 1:09:52Matt Farah?

  But not in the way that you think.

• 1:09:53Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, so the stock pump has, has overtaken the company, right? Obviously, there's no, there's no way for, as a car company, to justify the valuation, so of course. But, but is any of the stuff that they're doing real? I would say no, right? Um, it's been eight years since full self-driving has been out. It's been padding their, their margins and everything, but they, they aren't delivering on it. It's not, and, and the thing that I would really urge people to, to, to understand about the self-driving thing too is that like, Elon's not even talking about the only thing that matters, which is, we take legal liability at a certain point.

• 1:10:25Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 1:10:26Speaker 01

  That's when something becomes self-driving. He's not even say, he's not even like.

• 1:10:30Matt Farah?

  He's not even implying.

• 1:10:31Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:10:31Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:10:32Speaker 02

  And Mercedes did that, didn't they?

• 1:10:33Speaker 01

  They do with their L3 system.

• 1:10:34Matt Farah?

  They did.

• 1:10:35Speaker 02

  Yeah, that was a big step.

• 1:10:36Matt Farah?

  Sort of a couple of asterisks on it, too, is it's not a full 100%.

• 1:10:41Speaker 01

  It's legal responsibility, not necessarily full legal liability. And there are some lawyerly nuances to that.

• 1:10:47Matt Farah?

  Sure, there is a difference.

• 1:10:48Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:10:48Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 1:10:48Speaker 01

  But, but on a fundamental level, you're sort of broadly saying when this system is active, you know, all things being equal.

• 1:10:56Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 1:10:57Speaker 01

  And, and of course, yeah, it's, it's, it's, we have the responsibility for it. So, so Tesla's not even talking about doing that. So like, the idea that it's ever gonna be anything more than what it is today is just, there's just no reason to believe that. The humanoid stuff is, is frankly absurd. Again, it's, it's, it's, right, the idea that a, a, a level five autonomous vehicle is like fully self-driving, no human input in a, in a unbounded operating domain is like the most ambitious form of that technology. And a humanoid is like one of the few forms of automation, a general purpose humanoid robot.

• 1:11:29Matt Farah?

  It's like beyond that.

• 1:11:30Speaker 01

  That's even more ambitious. And it's like, and, and again, this is, this is really in a lot of ways.

• 1:11:34Matt Farah?

  That's so funny to distract you from the failure of the automated car.

• 1:11:40Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:11:40Matt Farah?

  He's, he's fucking waving his other hand over here at the automated robot, which if you think about it for two seconds, is so much harder to make than the automated car.

• 1:11:49Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:11:49Matt Farah?

  That they're not even close to.

• 1:11:50Speaker 01

  And, and this is the real, again, we're talking about, you know, always having to have something around the corner to aspire to. This is Elon's biggest problem right now. It's not just that the company's failing and, and, and, you know, they have nothing really to turn it around. It's that there is nowhere else to go. There's no, he's literally, he's in the White House. He's the shadow president.

• 1:12:08Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 1:12:08Speaker 01

  He's promising a race of like mechanical slaves that will usher us into a post scarcity, like, you know, environment where, you know, like everything is abundant and like, and like.

• 1:12:21Matt Farah?

  All that's left is I am God.

• 1:12:23Speaker 01

  It's apocalyptic.

• 1:12:24Matt Farah?

  There's nothing left past that.

• 1:12:26Speaker 01

  Literally.

• 1:12:27Speaker 02

  He's run out of promises because the technology, you know, a lot, a lot of Silicon Valley is built on like, we're gonna have this tech.

• 1:12:34Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:12:34Speaker 02

  Give us the money. And then they get the money, and then they make the tech. But the tech is a little more grounded or realistic, possible. There's obviously cases like. What's your name that, you know, went sideways or this. But with him, he's like, he's promised all this stuff. It's been so long.

• 1:12:47Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:12:47Speaker 02

  Tech hasn't caught up.

• 1:12:48Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:12:48Speaker 02

  And he's running out of things to say. He's running out of magic tricks and promises. You know, like your kid is gonna be disappointed you didn't show up for the baseball game at a certain point.

• 1:12:57Speaker 01

  Yup.

• 1:12:58Speaker 02

  You can't say you're going to and never show up.

• 1:13:00Speaker 01

  Yeah. And exactly, it's not promising something and then delivering it eventually or late or whatever. It's promising something and then replacing that with a, distracting people with another promise and another promise. And each of those promises has been bigger and bigger and bigger. And this is how confidence games work, right? You can't, you can't say, forget about that thing that I promised you. Here's a worse promise.

• 1:13:20Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:13:20Speaker 01

  That doesn't work. It has to always be escalating.

• 1:13:23Speaker 02

  It's always escalating.

• 1:13:24Speaker 01

  And this is the problem is like, what is he gonna do? Like, like, it's gotta be like a Gundam suit or like, you know, something like, you know, or like a, like a orbiting, you know, an orbital space station or something. Or maybe it's the golden dome or something, you know what I mean?

• 1:13:37Speaker 02

  Well, but now, I mean, now he's got the fucking keys to the government. So now he's, he maybe could, I mean, at least try and promise something on that scale.

• 1:13:46Speaker 01

  In theory, but the problem is, is that where's at least stockholders in Tesla?

• 1:13:49Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:13:50Speaker 01

  And that's just another distraction.

• 1:13:51Speaker 02

  Yeah. Cause like Starlink operates well and, but it's a separate thing. SpaceX does a separate thing, but Tesla stockholders specifically.

• 1:13:58Speaker 01

  Yup.

• 1:13:58Speaker 02

  Who are invested in a stock that trades at 12 times the PE ratio of Ford.

• 1:14:04Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:14:04Speaker 02

  And has no forward promise of revenue.

• 1:14:07Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:14:07Speaker 02

  Right now that's been, that exists.

• 1:14:09Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:14:10Speaker 02

  So unless every car starts driving itself, making the owners money and then making Tesla huge amounts of money.

• 1:14:15Speaker 01

  Yup.

• 1:14:15Speaker 02

  They don't have a product that they go, this is gonna justify 12 times, you know, the ratio that Ford has.

• 1:14:21Speaker 01

  And this is the thing about the haters knowing more than the fans is that, is that the haters remember stuff. That's the other thing, the fans can't let themselves remember anything because if they do, it makes it look really bad. Because this is exactly what's happened. People don't remember that, for example, 2012 was the supercharger launch. And they said, every supercharger will be 100% solar powered.

• 1:14:41Speaker 02

  Oh shit, yeah.

• 1:14:42Speaker 01

  And will create more power than the cars actually use.

• 1:14:45Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:14:45Speaker 01

  2012.

• 1:14:46Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:14:46Speaker 01

  Like this is more than a decade ago.

• 1:14:49Speaker 02

  It's not, I mean, it's not even anywhere close.

• 1:14:52Speaker 01

  I don't think there's one supercharger that does that.

• 1:14:56Speaker 01

  Like, and again, people just forget it. People just let this, and, and again, I think this is also something in the internet era. There's something new every day to get excited about, and so you just forget. We're kind of living in this like, like constant, like eternal now. You know, where it's like-

• 1:15:08Matt Farah?

  Dude, it's real, I try to, I do my best to keep up with things, and I'm so overwhelmed with it that I can't possibly. And if you're that kind of like debate bro type of guy, that can like dance around and take advantage of the fact that the flood of information is so great, I can't possibly fucking hit every ball thrown at me. It's important.

• 1:15:32Speaker 01

  This is literally why I had to write a book. I mean, it's, it's not fun. I don't enjoy it. It's, it's like the worst thing a person can do to themselves is write a book. But like, you have to do it because you're absolutely right. Like, otherwise, people don't build up this sense of perspective over time that allows them to see things for what they are. You have to put it all-

• 1:15:47Speaker 02

  Well, the advantage, the book focuses on one subject.

• 1:15:50Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 1:15:50Speaker 02

  But we, you know, Matt or myself, or you, anyone who's paying attention to the news, it's every subject. Like, you have to be an expert in all these things, and you can't be, and then you can't keep up, and you just, you just move on to the next day.

• 1:15:59Matt Farah?

  Uh, one more quick one, let's add, add, actually two more, but Goodwood Revives Me, I think we addressed it. How did Tesla drop the innovation ball so hard? I think, you know, you said the, the fan, you know, the, the exodus of talent and support. That's where, that's where the innovation actually came from.

• 1:16:17Speaker 01

  It wasn't Elon.

• 1:16:18Matt Farah?

  It didn't come from Elon, yeah. Uh, and then go, go up, I think the, um, oh, was there, were there a lot more?

• 1:16:24Speaker 02

  There's one more.

• 1:16:24Matt Farah?

  Okay, then we'll, then we'll finish him. Okay, then let's go down, because I like Chune Hounds as, and as the last one there. Uh, Mr. Go For It, if there is a push for US sales of US-built automobiles, who will benefit? Will Tesla be one of those that benefit? Uh, if foreign-built car prices increase due to tariffs, will Tesla be isolated from the price increases?

• 1:16:47Speaker 01

  Yes and no. I mean, I so absolutely, I think that that, you know, it was interesting that Trump sort of sort of said something about how like, oh, this applies to Tesla too, or whatever. But the reality is, is that I think what the tariffs are doing is trying to get Tesla back to the one time where its core business actually looked really good, which was during the pandemic, when there was a structural undersupply for the first time in auto industry history since World War II.

• 1:17:09Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 1:17:10Speaker 01

  Essentially, right? And so, you know, this is the best way they have of sort of recreating, right? And like, at least they're not creating another pandemic.

• 1:17:18Matt Farah?

  Yeah, and it may, yeah, right. And it may, it may negatively affect Tesla, but if it, let's say it negatively affects Tesla 5%, and it negatively affects Ford and GM 25%.

• 1:17:30Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:17:30Matt Farah?

  That's basically a 20% gift to Tesla.

• 1:17:33Speaker 01

  It is. The problem is, is that Tesla is tanking anyway.

• 1:17:36Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 1:17:37Speaker 01

  You know what I mean? Like, people just don't want the cars the way that they used to.

• 1:17:41Matt Farah?

  Alex Roy is calling your phone right now. You can put it on speaker, put it on speaker next to the mic if you want. Yeah.

• 1:17:49Speaker 01

  Alex Roy.

• 1:17:51Speaker 04

  Edward, how are you?

• 1:17:52Matt Farah?

  Closer.

• 1:17:52Speaker 01

  Uh, you'll never guess where I am at this moment.

• 1:17:55Speaker 04

  Uh, with Matt Farah at a protest right now?

• 1:17:58Speaker 01

  At a protest right now?

• 1:18:00Matt Farah?

  I can't go to protests, Alex. I have to be objective about the cars. I can't proactively say that the guise of fascist, unless on my own podcast where I can.

• 1:18:11Speaker 04

  Wait, you're, you are with Matt Farah?

• 1:18:13Speaker 01

  We are literally live right now.

• 1:18:15Matt Farah?

  Recording the show, Alex.

• 1:18:16Speaker 01

  You're, you're on the air.

• 1:18:18Speaker 04

  I just guessed it.

• 1:18:20Speaker 01

  You're, you're on the air right now.

• 1:18:23Speaker 04

  No.

• 1:18:23Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 1:18:25Speaker 04

  Um, all right, well.

• 1:18:27Matt Farah?

  Ed will call you back.

• 1:18:29Speaker 04

  But, all right.

• 1:18:30Matt Farah?

  All right, bye.

• 1:18:31Speaker 01

  Yeah, I'll see you soon.

• 1:18:32Matt Farah?

  He'll call you in two questions.

• 1:18:34Speaker 01

  Bye.

• 1:18:34Matt Farah?

  Okay. Was there one, was there one down, uh, Zach? Oh, we did that one. Oh, the tariff thing.

• 1:18:40Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah. So I, look, I, I just think Tesla, and, and we'll see, like, Q1 numbers are, are really critical here, right? Like, we'll see what the Q1 numbers are doing. I think that they're, I think that the, the brand is toxic. I think, uh, you know, uh, the tariffs can only help so much. That's, that's the funny thing. About about the whole him being in the White House. The president can only do so much to help Tesla as a company. It can help Elon, like they can create all kinds of other things.

• 1:19:04Matt Farah?

  Ultimately, they can't force people to buy the cars.

• 1:19:06Speaker 01

  Yeah, exactly.

• 1:19:07Matt Farah?

  Which and and we're gonna end on Shun Hound's question. Uh, Ed, what is the responsible way of disposing with one's Tesla? Dumping it at a huge loss and buying a different EV seems exceedingly irresponsible and further pushes the notion that consumer choices can change the world. Spoiler, it can't.

• 1:19:27Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:19:27Matt Farah?

  Bringing a canvas bag to Whole Foods or getting a different EV won't solve climate change.

• 1:19:33Speaker 01

  It's a it's an interesting topic.

• 1:19:34Matt Farah?

  I mean, there's a lot in there.

• 1:19:36Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:19:37Matt Farah?

  Um, both can be true.

• 1:19:39Speaker 01

  Mm hmm.

• 1:19:39Matt Farah?

  They they're not mutually exclusive.

• 1:19:41Speaker 01

  Yeah. So so I think the unique situation here is that is that, I mean, look, like, like, the lesson that consumer, you can't consume your way to a better world, like Tesla is the is the object lesson in that, right? I mean, a lot of people thought that, and and I have a, it's funny, one of my Blue Sky posts that I apparently gets passed around on like Instagram and stuff is is basically like, you know, there's a good chance that driving a gas car for the last five years or whatever would have been less harmful to the planet than supporting Elon Musk.

• 1:20:16Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 1:20:16Speaker 01

  I can't remember how I phrased it, but it was something like that. And and I think it's worth thinking about. Like, I don't think people should be, you know, obviously, like, like, if you want to buy an EV and if you think that you feel a sense of environmental responsibility, you know, do that. Don't do, uh, um, but I think, I, look, an EV is not going to change the world, but nothing, I mean, people get hung up on the idea of of transformative change. The reality is, is that things change little bits at a time.

• 1:20:45Matt Farah?

  Mm hmm.

• 1:20:46Speaker 01

  All any of us can do, like, we're all, you know, constantly bombarded. We've been talking about this a lot about all of the shit, right? Um, in the news and things that are happening and it all feels so overwhelming. And like, this is what feels good about going to a protest is like, it's not changing, that's not gonna fix everything. But it does drive some awareness. It is a little bit, a little thing that I can do to not only feel better for myself, but to help sort of other people understand where I'm coming from and and the perspective. I also think the unique thing here is, and and again, this is the what I've been trying to say about this this whole boycott is that If he weren't as vulnerable as he is, I think the situation looks really different. I think the reason that boycott and divestment is such a cool, like amazing opportunity right now

• 1:21:30Speaker 01

  is because, you know, again, his wealth looks like the Death Star. Tesla is the thermal port. Like, it is the flaw is because it's the only business that actually is a business. And it's failing.

• 1:21:40Matt Farah?

  I think, I think, I think Chun Hound's sentiment, buying an EV doesn't change the world. Using a canvas bag doesn't change the world. I hear you. I hear you. There's systematic problems that go beyond consumer choice.

• 1:21:54Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 1:21:54Matt Farah?

  However, your point that at this very specific time in history,

• 1:21:59Speaker 01

  That's right.

• 1:21:59Matt Farah?

  dumping one of those specific cars

• 1:22:02Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 1:22:03Matt Farah?

  at a financial loss

• 1:22:05Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 1:22:05Matt Farah?

  will have an outsized impact compared to any other point with any other consumer product potentially in your lifetime.

• 1:22:13Speaker 01

  That's exactly right. Thank you for putting it so concisely and clearly.

• 1:22:16Matt Farah?

  I don't know if that was concise.

• 1:22:16Speaker 01

  No, no, no, no.

• 1:22:17Matt Farah?

  That's what I get from it.

• 1:22:18Speaker 01

  Yeah, that was 100%.

• 1:22:19Matt Farah?

  You actually can make much more of a difference than you would normally make

• 1:22:23Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 1:22:23Matt Farah?

  by dumping that car at a loss and publicly.

• 1:22:26Speaker 01

  Especially in the United States.

• 1:22:28Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 1:22:28Speaker 01

  Again, because, you know, in China-

• 1:22:29Matt Farah?

  Fucking sling it on Cars and Bids, no reserve. Let it go.

• 1:22:33Speaker 01

  Yep, because not only-

• 1:22:34Matt Farah?

  Photograph it dirty.

• 1:22:35Speaker 01

  Yeah. And, and people ask, right, so one of the things is to get like lease financing, right? The resale value plays a factor in that. And so if you sell at a loss, yes, you are taking a loss. You are also, that loss is making it harder for Tesla to use lease, to get new lease financing, which is one of the ways that they're keeping their sales from falling faster.

• 1:22:55Matt Farah?

  And you can mitigate your environmental negligence there by dumping a quote perfectly good car, by moving it laterally into a used EV.

• 1:23:07Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:23:07Matt Farah?

  And not buying a brand new one from somewhere else.

• 1:23:09Speaker 02

  That's a good idea. Because, because asking someone to like sell it at a big loss, below market value or whatever, and then spend more money ultimately won't have a huge effect overall. But I think a lateral move is great, but also you could turn driving into a protest like you every day. Like, because right now, the Tesla Cybertruck, Cybertruck and other cars are- Starting to be seen, I think, the same way you see like a truck with an American flag on it, right?

• 1:23:35Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:23:36Speaker 02

  I've talked to a lot of friends about this in a lot of different states. And it used to just be a thing. You didn't see it very often.

• 1:23:42Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:23:43Speaker 02

  But now it's like a statement, you probably know where they align politically. And it's not as general as it used to be. It's very specific.

• 1:23:49Matt Farah?

  Yeah, the American flag is like used as like a threatening thing now, pretty much.

• 1:23:54Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's, I mean, I don't know what the left version would be.

• 1:23:58Matt Farah?

  You know a lot of socialists flying the fucking stars and stripes right now, like, I don't.

• 1:24:01Speaker 02

  Right, so Tesla cars might be seen the same way. And if people are worried about either being seen as supporting him or the agenda, a bumper sticker of some kind is probably more valuable than it's ever been. Because you're saying to people, like, I align with the people protesting.

• 1:24:16Speaker 01

  Yeah, so that's what I say is at a minimum, like, the more you do to turn your Tesla into a symbol. Because, yeah, because that's exactly, the point of it is to stigmatize the brand. And so you can drive a Tesla around and have it be an advertisement for stigmatizing the brand. You can, it can be a rolling protest. I would say if you really can't get rid of your car, do that.

• 1:24:36Matt Farah?

  Yeah, you could wrap it or like you could fucking change it aesthetically and make it be a protest if you really want to.

• 1:24:42Speaker 01

  You could do all kinds of things.

• 1:24:43Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 1:24:44Speaker 01

  Yeah, make it an art car. You know, you mentioned the dealership thing. I've been seeing since there's been so much coverage of these protests that all of the mainstream media called it dealership, dealership, dealerships. I do worry a little bit that people think that these are like dealerships and don't understand that like, no, like every time you get your Tesla serviced, that that is directly. And by the way, in Q4, and we'll see, Q1 numbers are going to be huge. We've got like three weeks still to wait for them. And they're going to be really important. But in Q4, the only two parts, the auto sales revenue and profit margins were down. The only two parts of the business that were growing were energy generation, which is, and storage and generation. So it's the roofs.

• 1:25:24Matt Farah?

  And the power walls.

• 1:25:25Speaker 01

  And the power walls and superchargers.

• 1:25:27Matt Farah?

  Oh, right, yeah.

• 1:25:28Speaker 01

  And then the other one was service. So superchargers and service are two of the only parts of the business that are actually growing. From a stock psychology perspective in particular, it's almost more important that we cut service and superchargers. For charger revenue than it is than we cut that we cut sales because that the sales are already taking care of themselves.

• 1:25:46Matt Farah?

  Well, if someone can buy one from their house, they gotta show up to somewhere to get it serviced.

• 1:25:51Speaker 01

  That's right.

• 1:25:51Matt Farah?

  So you could you could make that experience unpleasant and inconvenient.

• 1:25:56Speaker 01

  A lot of Tesla service centers are already closed on the weekends because of the protest. That's the biggest one of that and the and the White House sales thing. Those are the sorts of things that tell us that we're winning.

• 1:26:05Matt Farah?

  What's more embarrassing, Trump hawking a fucking Model S or the meme coin? I guess the meme coin is probably more embarrassing because it's just like open ways to bribe the president by buying the meme coin, but.

• 1:26:16Speaker 02

  I think this is I think this is worse because he mispronounced the brand name and he was surprised by screens and like.

• 1:26:21Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:26:21Speaker 02

  He talked about it as if he hadn't seen a car for thirty years, twenty years.

• 1:26:25Matt Farah?

  He probably fucking hasn't.

• 1:26:27Speaker 02

  But I mean, he's got he's been in, you know, Escalades or something, but he was like, wow, screen, holy shit.

• 1:26:33Speaker 01

  But see, he actually, did you know that Trump actually owned a Tesla Roadster?

• 1:26:36Speaker 02

  Does he know he owned one?

• 1:26:37Matt Farah?

  Um, did he? Yeah, did?

• 1:26:39Speaker 01

  He, I.

• 1:26:40Matt Farah?

  Really?

• 1:26:41Speaker 01

  Yeah, I he may have forgotten by this point because it was it was quite a long time ago, but yeah, he did own a Tesla Roadster at one point. And that's like, okay, I can see Trump owning a Tesla Roadster, but that's like the only Tesla I could see him sort of like opening DuPont. You know, whatever, and being like that one, that's the one, I want one of those. The rest of them, again, like I think I I think it's worth. I think the meme point is fine because everyone in that in that, it's not fine, it's everyone in that, everyone in that world.

• 1:27:05Speaker 02

  Even the crypto world was like, uh, this is bad.

• 1:27:08Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, no, it's horrible, but like, it's just something, right, he's a grifter, it's a thing that grifters do and like it fits his brand. The the problem with Tesla is that.

• 1:27:17Matt Farah?

  Crimes definitely fit the brand.

• 1:27:19Speaker 01

  It just doesn't, yeah, bribery, corruption, it's all on brand for him. Tesla isn't though, and you couldn't fake it. You know, and and like and like if you're gonna be, if your thing is being a salesman, like there are some things that certain salesmen can sell and certain things that you just can. You gotta, there's gotta be that alignment.

• 1:27:35Matt Farah?

  Pitch bad stakes, but not believable when it's bad cars.

• 1:27:39Speaker 01

  There's a lot of things that Trump can sell really well, most of them are pretty like obviously grifty, but like the Tesla thing, he doesn't get the appeal. He doesn't get the brand, he doesn't get the tech.

• 1:27:48Speaker 02

  Benefits financially as much.

• 1:27:49Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 1:27:50Speaker 02

  Like he benefits from. Having Elon either be his patsy to cut power out of the government or whatever, but he's not like, there's no direct conduit of like, if I pitch this Tesla, I get a check.

• 1:28:00Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:28:01Speaker 02

  And I think that's why he's like, eh, sure.

• 1:28:03Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:28:03Speaker 02

  Oh, my kid wants me to help him sell candy bars.

• 1:28:06Matt Farah?

  I gave you $230 million. Now please help save my sinking company.

• 1:28:10Speaker 01

  Well, the other part of this too is that if you know the history, Elon has parachuted into Tesla at the the last two or three, four weeks at the end of the quarter, like for years. This is what he does. He spends two months, two and a half months ignoring it. Then he gets his like sales report, realizes, oh shit, like things are not looking so good. And this is when, you know,

• 1:28:29Matt Farah?

  Does a little shell game.

• 1:28:31Speaker 01

  The mean machine grinds into life and he makes the magic happen. Well, now, right, his, his way of doing it is, is have the president selling them and everything. What's important about this, I think, to understand is that like, that doesn't work for what they're trying to do. Like, I think what they're trying to do of making, you know, Tesla is like the new MAGA thing. I think that they could get there, but it would take a long sustained marketing, like, like real big marketing brand shifts like this. It's not just one and done. You don't just jump in two weeks before the end of the quarter, have a press, you know, a little show in front of the White House, and then both of them are just like, boop, done, that's it.

• 1:29:07Matt Farah?

  Making Republicans like electric cars? That's a fucking campaign, dude. That's not a, you don't do that on a weekend.

• 1:29:14Speaker 01

  Especially the sort of people who are like, you know, solid Republicans.

• 1:29:18Matt Farah?

  You need like a Pat Buchanan and a fucking Glenn Beck for that kind of shit, or Steve Bannon or something.

• 1:29:24Speaker 01

  You gotta have the codes, the referral codes out to all the right wing media. You gotta have months of that stuff. You know, what they're trying to do could be done. The problem is, is that they're both like ADHD cases, I think, a little bit. And they, and, and they both have so many things going on that they're just sort of jumping in. And they, they're so drunk on power, too, is the real thing, is they think that one 20 minute, whatever, little show in front of the White House, that this is like the ultimate, you know, power and that this is just gonna fix everything. And they're gonna wait another quarter to realize,

• 1:29:55Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 1:29:56Speaker 01

  Oh, wait, that didn't do shit.

• 1:29:57Speaker 02

  I want to say very quickly, we should say that we support the nonviolent destruction. Non-destructive protests at Tesla establishments? We're not, and you're not advocating for.

• 1:30:06Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, no, I definitely always take the opportunity to say there is also no relationship between the violence. Has all, the FBI said it themselves. It happened, individuals randomly, middle of the night, no relationship to the peaceful protest. Like I said, come down, even in Portland, Portland that supposedly was burnt down by Antifa in 2020, you know? Most radical extremists, and we're out there dancing, you know, we're doing street theater, we're having, we got bubbles, we got music.

• 1:30:31Matt Farah?

  It's very Portland.

• 1:30:32Speaker 01

  It's there's, and there's, and there's Teslas just sitting there. In fact, there's like this lot that's right by where we protest, where there's like this like dark corner, where they just have like three Teslas, kind of totally off from the rest of the dealership. I mean, I don't want to be conspiratorial, but like, pretty clearly, if there was any tendency towards violence among the protesters, like, these vehicles seem like they're just sort of hidden away, and it would be so easy to vandalize. No one's touched them. No one's touched them.

• 1:31:00Speaker 02

  Watch out for the agent provocateur situation.

• 1:31:02Speaker 01

  Yeah, oh, yeah.

• 1:31:02Matt Farah?

  A small, a small number of incidents and a large number of protests that are massively covered on media.

• 1:31:09Speaker 01

  Yeah, and again, again, there's no, it's not like the protests are turning violent.

• 1:31:13Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 1:31:13Speaker 01

  Except for when guys try and drive their cars into them.

• 1:31:16Speaker 02

  Right, that guy got arrested. Right?

• 1:31:18Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:31:18Matt Farah?

  Um, thanks, Ed.

• 1:31:20Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:31:20Matt Farah?

  I look forward to coming by the AI conference tomorrow. Well, this is gonna air after it anyway, so we can, I'll talk about it later, how it was.

• 1:31:29Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:31:29Matt Farah?

  Um, but I can't wait to read your next book. Ludicrous is mandatory reading.

• 1:31:34Speaker 01

  I can't wait to be done writing it.

• 1:31:36Matt Farah?

  Where, yeah, right. Where is the most, is the best place for you for people to buy Ludacris?

• 1:31:42Speaker 01

  Uh, let's see, uh, I guess Ben Bella, I don't buy it anywhere. Yeah, Ben Bella, uh, benbella books dot com.

• 1:31:49Matt Farah?

  Ben Bella books dot com.

• 1:31:51Speaker 01

  Honestly, buy it anywhere, though.

• 1:31:53Matt Farah?

  Not Amazon.

• 1:31:54Speaker 01

  I mean, ideally, not Amazon, yeah.

• 1:31:56Matt Farah?

  Bookshop.org, I fuck with bookshop.org.

• 1:31:59Speaker 01

  Oh, Powell's, Powell's, Portland. Yeah, except that they never have it in stock.

• 1:32:02Matt Farah?

  Find your local indie bookstore and have them order it for you.

• 1:32:05Speaker 01

  Please.

• 1:32:06Matt Farah?

  If there's a cat there, even better.

• 1:32:07Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 1:32:08Matt Farah?

  Uh, there, our local bookstore has a cat.

• 1:32:10Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:32:10Matt Farah?

  Its name is Paige.

• 1:32:11Speaker 01

  I also, I think I get paid a little bit more on the audiobook, so if you're into that.

• 1:32:14Matt Farah?

  Oh, do you? Did you read it?

• 1:32:15Speaker 01

  Uh, no, I did not read it.

• 1:32:17Matt Farah?

  Did, who, who read it? Did someone, someone else?

• 1:32:19Speaker 01

  I got the choice of, of three guys, and it was like, not that guy. Oh, no, no, not that guy. Oh, no, no, and I ended up going back with the first guy.

• 1:32:31Speaker 01

  It was a weird, I mean, he's great.

• 1:32:33Matt Farah?

  If I ever read a book, I'm really, I'm springing for like the full Morgan Freeman. I really, I want this book to sound like gospel.

• 1:32:41Speaker 01

  I mean, you have, maybe you should read my, my book.

• 1:32:44Matt Farah?

  I'll, I'll happily fucking do someone's audiobook.

• 1:32:47Speaker 01

  Yeah, I feel like you've got a good.

• 1:32:49Matt Farah?

  I could do an audiobook, I'm like budget Seth Rogen.

• 1:32:51Speaker 01

  Cause I know I couldn't.

• 1:32:52Matt Farah?

  It's okay.

• 1:32:53Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:32:53Matt Farah?

  I, I, I agree. I don't think you could either. I like you on radio, I don't know if I need you to read your book.

• 1:32:59Speaker 01

  I can do a conversation, but no.

• 1:33:00Speaker 02

  I feel like if I listen to your audiobook by you, and I, no offense, like, I would go, did I turn this up to two speed? No, still at one, you're a fast talker.

• 1:33:07Speaker 01

  I am a fast talker.

• 1:33:08Matt Farah?

  Yeah.

• 1:33:08Speaker 01

  That's true.

• 1:33:09Matt Farah?

  Uh, Niedermeyer on Blue Sky.

• 1:33:11Speaker 01

  Niedermeyer dot online.

• 1:33:12Matt Farah?

  Niedermeyer dot, Niederm, uh, Niedermeyer dot online.

• 1:33:16Speaker 01

  On Blue Sky and the World Wide Web, it's also my blog.

• 1:33:18Matt Farah?

  On the World Wide Web. Uh, and, uh, yeah dude, thank you for coming by.

• 1:33:23Speaker 01

  Thanks for having me.

• 1:33:24Matt Farah?

  And the podcast, of course, with Alex Roy.

• 1:33:26Speaker 01

  Tonacast.com.

• 1:33:27Matt Farah?

  Tonacast, uh, with our good friend Alex Roy.

• 1:33:29Speaker 01

  And Kirsten Korsak.

• 1:33:30Matt Farah?

  And Kirsten, right, sorry about that. Um, thanks dude, uh, we will see you very soon. This is a good time.

• 1:33:36Speaker 01

  Always so much fun.

• 1:33:37Matt Farah?

  Bye everybody, thank you to our patrons asking such good questions today, and we will see you next week.