Unpacking the Bipolar Messaging of the Iran War | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

This episode features a deep discussion on the current geopolitical tensions, focusing on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and US foreign policy strategies. Experts analyze military, diplomatic, and economic aspects, providing insights into potential outcomes and strategic considerations. Support the show on Patreon:⬇️ https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouse Subscribe to our newsletter!!!! https://teamhousepodcast.kit.com/join Jack's news outlet: https://thehighside.substack.com/ Find Jon Hackett here:⬇️ Jon's Twitter: https://x.com/jonathanhackett Jon's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejonathanhackett Jon's books: https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B0C5L659N5?ccs_id=e11a2062-f8d3-498e-bfd7-7d2f3869caf6 Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejonathanhackett Twitter: https://x.com/jonathanhackett Check out Mick's new podcast here:⬇️ Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/at/podcast/pub-and-porch-applied-stoicism/id1836955475 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1k3QPmkAMwnGJxMLDwUSSd?si=n6piIu8XRcag1Z0K43A3bQ Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCd0Hq6QFk8CoTu5j-VU0Ong Find Mick Mulroy here: Fogbow ⬇️ https://fogbow.com/ Lobo Institute ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/ Twitter ⬇️ https://x.com/mickmulroy?s=21&t=-Ze3F_Ix2vlJ18KFvORTCA LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/ Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/mickmulroy.bsky.social Mick’s publications ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/publications/publications-of-michael-mick-patrick-mulroy/ Whitefish security summit https://whitefishsecuritysummit.com Find Marc P here: https://x.com/Mpolymer Find Andy Milburn here: Twitter ⬇️ https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8 LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023 Substack ⬇️ https://amilburn.substack.com/ Andy’s book ⬇️ https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/andy-milburn.bsky.social Find Jason Lyons here: LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lyons-666873316?u Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/bgsilverback73.bsky.social "Karl Casey @ White Bat Audio" 00:00 Start 05:09 The Straits of Hormuz: A Critical Flashpoint 10:03 Military Options and Diplomatic Challenges 15:11 Negotiation Dynamics and Regional Implications 20:11 The Role of U. S. Forces and Strategic Considerations 24:55 Economic Consequences and Global Reactions 29:56 Future Scenarios and Policy Recommendations 39:55 The Complexities of U. S.-Iran Relations 44:00 U. S. Interests vs. Regional Dynamics 49:01 Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy Hypocrisy 54:58 The Role of Covert Action in National Security 58:49 Iranian Propaganda and Its Impact 01:02:07 Cultural Commentary and Political Satire 01:02:57 Information Warfare and Military Strategy 01:06:02 The Role of Congress in Military Engagements 01:10:04 The Unitary Executive Theory and Its Implications 01:11:55 Reflections on Military Service and Political Accountability 01:15:02 Looking Ahead: Future Topics and Discussions Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss.

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• 0:56Speaker 02

  Hey, what's up, guys? This is D. Do us a favor and check out our Patreon page. It's patreon.com/the team house. You get both Team House episodes and Eyes on Geopolitics episodes completely ad-free. You get them early, too. You can ask us questions. You can also watch the Team House episodes live as we shoot them. So, and you help support the show and support what we're doing here. It's patreon.com/the team house. Those links are in the description, or if you're listening, it's in the show notes down below, so you can click it real quick and easy. And it helps us keep the lights on. So, we appreciate it, and we appreciate you guys listening. Thanks a bunch. Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics.

• 1:40Speaker 02

  I'm here with Andy Milburn, Mick Mulroy, Mark Polymoropoulos, and myself. Lot happening, as usual. You guys missed, we were talking offline about the next Whitefish Security Summit, so check that out. It's gonna be... February 24th to the 26th of next year. So take, keep an eye out for that. It's going to be exciting. Um, guys, how are you? It's great to see you. Um, lot happening per usual. Um, a lot of confusion too. It's just been kind of like messaging chaos over the last week. We left off our last episode. We were talking about the naval blockade that was being announced.

• 2:17Speaker 02

  It doesn't seem to be much of a blockade. Frankly, the Strait of Hormuz seems to be de facto shut still. Ton of mixed messaging, like we had, uh, the Treasury Secretary Bessent on Friday talking about extending, uh, sanction, the way, uh, getting rid of the waiver on sanctions for Iran and Russia for selling their oil. That was Friday. Happens, uh, last night or a night ago, that waiver was extended. Uh, so we really have no clue what's going on, frankly. Um, JD Van, uh, not JD Vance, maybe JD Vance, but Jared Winkoff and no Jared Kushner and Steve Winkoff. I put them together because they're just like a one blob of ineptitude.

• 2:59Speaker 02

  Are heading back to Islamabad, uh, tomorrow, possibly with JD Vance. We don't know. There's some mixed messaging there as well that just as we were getting online about an hour ago. It's been going on. Um, anyway, a lot happening. Where do you guys, what do you guys tracking? What do you guys want to talk about exactly? Mick, you go first.

• 3:25Speaker 03

  I mean, we all thought somewhere mid last week that we were headed toward an agreement because there was so much positive statements coming out of the White House that you're like, this is great. I mean, they're going to give up all their HEU and we can fly it to the United States and the straight's going to be open. And, you know, I was certainly hoping that was the case. But it turned out not to be the case. At least the ratings said it wasn't the case. And if they say it wasn't the case, then obviously it's not because they're the other part of the, you know, the process, uh, when it comes to ending a war between the two countries. So, you know, the first thing, and not that anybody's listening, but it just doesn't help to try to do negotiations publicly through social media.

• 4:07Speaker 03

  It just hardens both sides. They get angry at each other and it makes the negotiator's job more difficult.

• 4:16Speaker 03

  Really would be better if we just let this field marshal who's flying all over the world from Pakistan to Tehran and now coming to the United States to do the needful back channel negotiations and both sides willing to compromise because the alternative I think is pretty clearly going to be an escalation. The I don't think President Trump wants to leave this with just, you know, yes, we did a lot to reduce their military capacity. I think the New York Times article just came out, kind of questions exactly the numbers that we've been saying, but we have reduced it. So that's good. Ballistic missiles, suicide

• 4:57Speaker 03

  drones, obviously their avian air force. We're not going to get to a regime change. So just take that off the table. And then we can't leave the Strait of Hormuz closed, or that's a failure. This just is. There's nothing that you can spend to say that it won't be. They didn't have it before. If they end up with control of the Strait and being able to hold the rest of the world ransom with 20% of their energy supply, that is a that is a big failure. So what are we going to do from here? We're either going to come up with a diplomatic resolution to this that's acceptable to both sides, or I'm guessing we're going to start using ground forces to try to secure the Strait and potentially

• 5:39Speaker 03

  recover the H U, which they don't seem willing to give up. And so, and then one last point, when it comes to the agreement.

• 5:49Speaker 03

  Right now, the only thing different from the JCPOA that we're hearing publicly is that you won't have the ability to enrich at all. Under the JCPOA, they could, but only up to 3%, which wasn't weapons, but they did have the ability to enrich. We're not hearing any discussion on ballistic missiles restrictions. We're not hearing any discussions on not funding terrorist organizations, also known as proxies. When I was in the Pentagon in 2018, that was the biggest reason we were told that we needed to get out of the JCPOA. It did include those two things. So if this doesn't include it, I mean, just by definition, there's going to be a lot of, I think, critiques on what this was all about. If essentially

• 6:34Speaker 03

  we end up just getting back into the JCPOA, and certainly if we release, you know, the $20 billion in funds that they have and reduce and eliminate the sanctions.

• 6:46Speaker 03

  I did understand the argument at the time that it didn't include ballistic missiles and proxies. Our position in the Pentagon was like, well, let's address it separately. But that's what we were told. That's why the White House decided to unilaterally withdraw. So I'll stop there, but I think we needed better agreement than the one we got out of, or we are really going to have to question what this was all about from a foreign policy decision making process.

• 7:14Speaker 04

  Yeah, it's kind of interesting that the center of gravity is now the Straits of Hormuz, right? It's the most consequential arena in this conflict.

• 7:25Speaker 04

  It's not the nuclear issue. It's not, yeah, any of those things that we were, I want to say kind of brought up with to focus on, right? I mean, Mick at a higher level than me, but I was a planner focusing on these plans. And then at SOX, and I was focusing on the immediate problem of Iranian malign influence in the region. And blocking the Straits of Hormuz was a contingency that we discussed should we go to war. And it was a disadvantage and there were plans to, there were plans to mitigate it. We recognized that it would be a blow. And those plans, though, depended heavily on coalition support in the region,

• 8:08Speaker 04

  which we seem to have discarded, to say the least, right? So, I mean, and, and just last thing that I'll say is that, you know, Liddell Hart's, Liddell Hart was a British, he was a British First World War veteran and a strategist. And he said, look, the object of war is a better peace. You shouldn't go to war unless you can ensure that you secure a better peace. And I, and I, I was optimistic for a while that maybe we would see a better peace because we'd grown up under the shadow of Iran in the region. And perhaps that was going to be curtailed, but it couldn't be curtailed in the ways that we were doing it alone.

• 8:54Speaker 04

  And destroying, for instance, the Iranian Navy was it was almost irrelevant, right? Because it was the mosquito fleet that was always a danger to the straits. It was it wasn't the big service vessels. It was the small boats, it was the mines, it was the drones. Drones were a recent development and the ballistic missiles. And now, sure enough, Iran's not contesting the straits through conventional navy. Its regular navy's gone, but it was never the decisive factor. So they've they've employed a distributed asymmetric, I hate using that term, but it is an asymmetric approach.

• 9:34Speaker 04

  It's built around these small, fast craft, shore-based missiles, drones, concealed launches. And we've done little to nothing to remove that threat. If you if you look at the Wall Street Journal and New York Times recent articles that quote our own intelligence community, saying that at least 50% of the missile launches are still intact, thousands of drones and an unknown number of small boats. The small boats didn't even figure in our BDA announcements. And so that's how we are where we are.

• 10:13Speaker 05

  So I think a couple of things. One is just overall, I don't think there's any silver bullet for this. I mean, I was trying to think this morning is, okay, you know, so it's very easy to critique everything that's happening and we will do so. There's actually, you know, when you talk about, okay, we're in this right now, we're stuck. And as we've said many times here, and Mick, I love when you kind of say, hey, man, we actually, you know, we want the US to win. We're on Team America here, like, but but we're kind of in a shitty situation. And I don't see any really great options for the following reasons. One is, you know, the military option is not working. Let's just be very clear on that. And of course, you know, we can we can talk for the entire program about the Pete Hex at the press conferences.

• 10:56Speaker 05

  But even Dan Kane, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, when he comes out and he talks about all the great things US military is doing, then you have on the side, press reports saying that Defense Intelligence Agency says 40% of the drones are still there, 6% of the missiles, whatever it is, they still retain a lot of the capability that frankly, during these Pentagon briefings, nobody even addresses. And you don't get any questions because the Pentagon, press corps, at least the normal ones have all been kicked out. But I'm not sure what the option is right here, because the Iranians really believe they can outlast us. You know, it's a race in time between when the Iranian economy collapses, whenever that may be, versus when the US economy, you know, inflation, price

• 11:40Speaker 05

  of gas, and then the world economy, when we kind of have had enough. And the Iranians think they can outlast us. And so even if it just ends up being kind of this test of patience. Now, Mick, you raised something which is interesting, is that, you know, some of us can kind of go and say, all right, this negotiations, just like everything with Iran, is going to be kind of this interminable set of round after round after round. But if Trump does get impatient, and I think he will, and, you know, what is the military escalation? Is that really going to be boots on the ground? Which is going to cause US casualties? Does, I mean, you know, as we've talked many times before, the Pentagon will do it, of course, because it's building control of the military. They will execute based on what they are told to do. But this is going to be pretty politically explosive

• 12:25Speaker 05

  in the United States and for Trump as well. And so, and actually, I don't think he wants to do this. But again, what are the options that are left? And kind of the, what would seem to be the thing that is going to end this, which is going to be really dissatisfying, because it's not going to certainly account for the Iranian support for proxies, or the ballistic missile inventory, or the Iranian people and regime change, it would be kind of a JCPOA 2.5. I mean, a little bit stronger. And that's where we all thought this was heading, I think it was last Friday. I mean, my God, everyone, and we're all a victim of this, who were doing media stuff, things seem to be going in a direction which is kind of a strength in JCPOA. There are people arguing about, you know, what's the, you

• 13:10Speaker 05

  know, what is this, the time in which, or is there a set time in which the Iranians could then, you know, start to begin enrichment again, it was 20 years versus what we said, five years. But then everyone kind of backtrack from that as well. On the best case scenario, it turns into an agreement like that, Trump will get lambasted on this. And then worst case is, I don't know what we do. Or there's going to be, you know, there's going to be a ground operations with significant US casualties. This is one of those foreign policy challenges. And for, you know, all of us who do speak in the media, you know, of course, you kind of analyze the situation, but then at some point you say like, okay, this is what I think we should do. And on that, on that note, there's not a lot of great options.

• 13:53Speaker 05

  I don't know what you guys' thoughts are, but it seems to me we have boxed ourselves in into a really, um, you know, a really tough situation, a bit of a pickle, and there's no kind of quick silver bullets that's going to get us out of this.

• 14:04Speaker 03

  So on that point, Mark, and throw it to everybody, of course, but like, so we keep talking about, all right, so we could seize, you know, some of the islands to open the strait, we could potentially launch this, which would be a really complex special operations to get the HEU. On the strait, though, so if we did it and we were successful, the Marines land, seize islands, like, how do we get out of it? Like, how do we, what, what comes next? I mean, you have to, you have to think, you know, five steps ahead and how it actually advances your overall policy, because we know if you tell Marines and Rangers to, you know, take something, they're going to take it. They're probably, to your point, Mark, take casualties. So this is, that's horrible.

• 14:49Speaker 03

  But then like, so we're going to live there? I mean, we're going to just permanently occupy the strait so that it's open? I don't know. That's the question. And then the HEU recovery mission by everybody's estimation is going to be, would be weeks. They would, of course, mass forces against us. It could be, we could be creating our own Alamo, is what I'm concerned about, or Thermopylae, depending on, you know, how far you want to go back. So these are really big decisions. It isn't just like, I'm pulling a trigger and it's just going to happen and it's going to work. And of course, Iran's going to retaliate for either of those things substantially against our partner countries in the region. So.

• 15:35Speaker 05

  How do we get out of it? Yeah, that's the question is, yeah, think about your previous role as as Dastid when you were when you were sitting in the Pentagon, you would have been asked if there were to be a National Security Council meeting, there's probably not, but you would have been there. What is your recommendation? I don't know what the the silver bullet, there is none. So, you know, what would you recommend we do?

• 15:54Speaker 03

  Double, well, I mean, start with, I mean, it's easy to say, but double down on diplomacy. You know what I mean? Like, it's not in our interest to go to escalate. It's not. I'm not just being nice to Iran, right? I I wish the regime would get wiped off the face of the earth. But these are decisions that aren't, it isn't. I think some people get too comfortable with, OK, we launched a military operation to kill Bin Laden or Baghdadi or kept or catch Maduro, and it's just the easy button. It's not the easy button, and this is definitely not the easy button. This is, this is something that we could get stuck in quagmire, and I don't want to see that happen. So I don't know how we can.

• 16:35Speaker 03

  It has to be better than the original JCPOA, I think, to make it viable for the United States. But we need to accept that it might not be the perfect solution.

• 16:48Speaker 03

  Andy, what do you think about, what would we do if we actually took these islands? What would be?

• 16:54Speaker 04

  I mean, I've written about it, and I think it's an appallingly bad idea. Because, yes, we can do it. It's militarily feasible, as you point out. There's two questions to ask. The first is, what for, right? What is the strategic gain that gives us? And secondly, what comes next? We've anchored ourselves to it. We've become fixed targets. We've we forfeited all the advantage that we have without the options of a, and you've got to keep forces there, right? And even then, they don't keep the straits open. I mean, we've talked about this. It did with with the range of of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, with the range of drones.

• 17:36Speaker 04

  You're not doing anything by sitting on terrain. Yes. And the uranium seizure mission, even if we pulled it off, right? And let's just say, and we're all tiptoeing around, so let's stay on the right side of classified, of course, as we always do on this show. But even if hypothetically, you can do this in a week, right? With only a thousand guys on the ground, plus heavy equipment, blah, blah, all this stuff that you can read in open source is required, then what? So what? We take the uranium, right? It's not, but the program itself, the expertise is still there. The centrifuges are still there. If we're to believe our own intelligence community reports, many of them being buried

• 18:21Speaker 04

  so deep. Yes, some of them have been buried also by the air campaign, but they're recoverable and they can be back in business. So we haven't destroyed the program and at a great risk. Yeah, no, so I agree. And the only option now is diplomacy. And there's one other, there's one other factor, a couple of factors, right? That are also affecting this. The effects on the regime of the war have not been favorable to the United States, rather than, you know, the conflict by killing that top layer. And I'm not saying, you know, they, sometimes that's a good tactic.

• 19:03Speaker 04

  But the problem is that in this case, that we've strengthened the hardline elements within the regime. If you believe, again, open source reporting by Wall Street Journal, New York Times, internal dissent has been suppressed and in some cases, it's been, it's been subjugated under this feeling of patriotism and the feeling that they're being attacked by an external country, right? So they've, to some extent, we've united the country behind a harder line regime and the revolutionary guard has increased its influence. It's isolated from the effects of the economic blows against, ostensible blows against Iran itself because of the way they distributed their wealth.

• 19:46Speaker 04

  We've learned that from John Hackett. So.

• 19:52Speaker 04

  We're not, again, we haven't achieved a better, a better peace. It's perhaps still within our grasp. There's no doubt that Iran is feeling the pressure. Otherwise, they wouldn't be showing up in Islamabad. But, but not to the extent that we think they have.

• 20:09Speaker 05

  You know, there's a, there's a great, there's a Washington Post op ed by a former agency case officer, Mark Fowler, I think it was last week, and he said something that I thought was great. And, and he said, you know, as, you know, when we are running around operations and you, you know, when you first recruit an Iranian asset, when you sit down, obviously, you secure their, their agreement to work, um, you know, for the United States, not against their country, against their government, of course. And then you come up with a salary. And in our old world, Mick, we would say, okay, you're going to get paid a thousand bucks a month. There we go. Write a cable, that's it. But in the Iranians' mind, that was just the beginning of the negotiation over his salary. And so, you know, these are master negotiators. And so it was funny, because then later on, as you're handling the asset, when you say,

• 20:54Speaker 05

  hey, here's your thousand bucks for your, you know, this, this money, he's like, oh, no, no, no, I want 2,000. Well, wait, wait, we agreed a month ago. It's like, yeah, that was a month ago. So, you know, these are, these are negotiators, and the Iranians probably can, can, can wait us out. And I guess, something Andy, you said, I think is really important. The question that we should ask ourselves, I'm still a romantic. I did this job for the agency, and I still believed in American exceptionalism. You know, whether we're talking to the Kurds, or the Syrians, or our indigenous personnel in Afghanistan, I mean, I believe the Americans were the good guys. So the question now you have to ask yourself is, are the Iranian people today actually better or worse off since this war started? And I don't know the answer to that.

• 21:37Speaker 05

  Because there's no talk of the, quote, "help, it's on its way" from Trump. I mean, that was, to me, that was inspiring. I was like, I'll get behind this. And we're nowhere there. In fact, if there's an agreement... If there's a JCPOA 2.5, let's say, there's going to be sanctions relief. You're going to infuse cash into the Iranian regime and they might actually survive longer. So just something to throw out.

• 21:59Speaker 03

  Yeah, they probably will survive.

• 22:01Speaker 05

  Probably will.

• 22:01Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 22:02Speaker 05

  Last piece on this, and it's something that I felt guilty about. I, you know, so, you know, we all do our TV shtick. And we were all, we were all, Friday was a day of incredible optimism. Mick, I don't know if you were on, I certainly was. And I look back and I'm like, I wish I hadn't said what I said, which was, hey, we need to be closer in agreement. I think it was all bullshit. And you got to ask yourself, okay, what happened here? Was it, a couple of questions for you guys to consider. Was it this struggle within Iran between the hardline elements, you know, Vahidi, the IRGC chief versus Araki, the foreign minister? You know, was it an actual struggle there for what's going on? Was it bullshit spewed out by quote sources of the US national security media?

• 22:42Speaker 05

  Some of us included, that we bought the nonsense about the optimism, that it was coming from, you know, and, and, you know, Kushner and Whitaker have half the US press corps on speed dial. So was it that? And was that BS designed to kind of push a narrative that things were getting closer? You know, maybe to influence a deal? And so, or was it, or, and was it, you know, Trump market manipulation? The stock market went up dramatically. Oil prices fell. Helps the US economy. It was a combination of all those, but I do think, and it won't happen, but I was thinking back like, man, like we were just totally snowed by this optimism on Friday and it looks like it was all BS. Or some elements certainly were. So what, what are your guys' thoughts on that?

• 23:25Speaker 05

  Cause I, I was totally guilty in that and I look back now and I'm like, man, I shouldn't have said what I, I should have been much more cautious saying like, hey, this is interesting. This is coming from the US side. Not so sure what's going to happen, but I was not that. And I think I fell into that trap a little bit. Thoughts?

• 23:40Speaker 03

  Yeah, I, I'm. I do think that like. I mean diplomacy is. Sorry. There is a different system in Iran right now. They have, you know, power brokers, like you already mentioned, Aragchi, the foreign minister.

• 23:55Speaker 03

  He also had this guy that's the new head of the National Security Council, Zogadar, I think is his name. I'm told, I don't know much about him, but I'm told like he was such a hardliner that like Qassem Soleimani wouldn't work.

• 24:11Speaker 04

  Like he was saying, this guy's too

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• 26:07Speaker 04

  Tense. So think about that. Yeah, right. So we're not, we're dealing with a regime. Yeah. Calling you a psycho. Exactly.

• 26:18Speaker 05

  But Trump said that that he's dealing with people who are reasonable. I mean, he comes out and he spews this shit out all the time. He says, we like the people we're dealing with and we're good. What's he talking about?

• 26:30Speaker 03

  I don't know, because if he's if he's the ultimate guy, and obviously, the new Supreme Leader has both lost his entire family and is apparently seriously injured because of the strikes. I can't imagine him being any any less hardline than his dad that we just killed. So, I mean, I think we have to accept that we're in a we have a regime that's going to be even more hardline than the old one. It is. They're likely, if we get to an agreement, which we all want, to your point, Mark, that's going to maybe permanently install them as the governing body of Iran forever, right? Because they're going to have sanctions relief, and our agreement is with them. So now, we're not going to have an incentive to see them

• 27:13Speaker 03

  deposed, even though they're absolutely horrendous. So all that stuff's out the window if we get to an agreement. Yeah, it's a challenge. And are we promoting the, you know, this idea that everything's rosy? So it, you know, I think that's the US's view is, we just keep saying it so that it'll actually happen. I just think eventually, in popularity to that point, people just don't listen to it. They just say, okay, let's see what actually comes out of it, what's written, and what's agreed to. I was on a bunch of foreign media yesterday, and all and with people in Tehran, who are obviously pushing their side, and they're like, none of this stuff was agreed to. It's all made up, and we don't know how

• 27:56Speaker 03

  to get to an agreement if there's not even going to be a baseline of honesty and something that's actually written and published. And I argue with these folks all the time, because they just promote the regime. But it's hard to argue with that one. Like, unless there's a written agreement, why would anybody believe it's that that's actually, you know, public? It says, this is what we agree to. Open the straits. What does open mean? Open doesn't mean Iran gets to charge a million dollars and have everybody go through their territorial waters and and they decide whether you go through. Open is an international waterway that has, just like it was. But there's got to be a definition, and they've got to actually put down in writing what they're agreeing to, because this is clearly not working.

• 28:41Speaker 03

  The way it is.

• 28:42Speaker 05

  Hey Andy, can you go over the disposition of US forces now just from open source? You know, where are we in terms of, is there, is there a third aircraft carrier battle group there? Like where the both muse there, where are we in terms of this build? I saw something on, again, it's on open source, it's on, you know, on Twitter that there, there's continues to be this pretty significant airflow of assets from the United States. Maybe the audience would kind of go over exactly what's, what our order of battle is, if we can say it in unclassified way.

• 29:12Speaker 04

  Yeah, I mean, I'd have to pull Mick in, I haven't, I haven't been, I haven't been counting the order of battle here in the Middle East. But certainly there's been no return of units, so anything that's come has been additive. I haven't, I, I didn't know there's a, I wasn't tracking as a third, third carrier. I know we've, we've, we've flown significantly in the last couple of weeks, we've flown more tankers out here. And I say that's significant because it's a really interesting aspect of the air campaign, or maybe it's just interesting to me because I'm a geek. But you know, Iran wasn't, Iran knew they couldn't, they couldn't shoot our aircraft

• 29:56Speaker 04

  out of the skies en masse, so they went after critical enablers, right? They went after, I think Duhae called them the, the nest and eggs of air power. In our case, tho- those are the tankers, right? The C, the, I'm sorry, the KC-135 fleet, that's aging, limited number of airframes. It went after our AWACS aircraft, because of course, they, they play a key role too, and we've got a limited number. And they went, went after our acquisition radar here in the, here in the Gulf. And, and they were pretty successful.

• 30:36Speaker 04

  You know, you can look on open source what they did here in Prince Sultan Air Base to the AWACS and tankers. And they destroyed acquisition radar in Jordan and Bahrain.

• 30:49Speaker 04

  So we've had to replace those, but if the reports are to be believed, we've replaced them en masse. I mean, we must have very few tankers left back in the States. We flew a ton into Ben Gurion Airport, of all places, the other day. So ostensibly, it looks as though we're preparing for further action. And that's why you see all this suppressed hysteria on Twitter. But I agree with you guys that I don't sense that, not that I have any great insights, but I don't sense that from this administration. Nothing to

• 31:30Speaker 04

  gain at all by escalating militarily. I mean, we have reached the limits of what we can attain through a military campaign. That's the bottom line. And so, yes, there's certainly been reinforcement of military capacity here in the Middle East, but I think that's largely for show. And it's certainly at cost of the long-suffering soldiers, sailor, Eman, and Marine who has stuck out for an extended period of time. And if reports are correct, even the Navy is running short of chow, which tells you how desperate things are. But, you know, on a serious note, on the diplomacy, I'm not a diplomat by background,

• 32:12Speaker 04

  but I think diplomats will tell you that, that it's obviously, it's an edger if you take small bites, right? When things appear to be as they are now, you don't go for your ultimate objectives right away and decide after a 21-hour conversation, you're done because it's not going to happen, right? You have to calibrate your expectations accordingly, and you have to accept the conditions for a comprehensive agreement, as we've just been talking about, and not present, because of the perceptions of both sides, that both are the victors. So I think the likely outcome, and the one that we, United States, have to accept is, you know, if progress is made, it's going to be, they're going to develop

• 32:56Speaker 04

  an interim framework, something that stabilizes the immediate situation in Straits of Hormuz, and yes, perhaps Lebanon too, without resolving these underlying issues. So it might be a temporary arrangement on partial sanctions relief.

• 33:15Speaker 04

  Some form of de-escalation in the streets.

• 33:20Speaker 04

  And with agreement to talk about an arrangement on nuclear activity during the next talks.

• 33:28Speaker 03

  So then on the question mark, I think the 11th view is going to be there within a week, maybe a little over a week. And then the USS George H W Bush, it's gone through the Gibraltar, it's gone through the, it's in the Med somewhere.

• 33:45Speaker 03

  I'm sure some of our audience knows, but I do try to keep track of it because that's, I mean, if you talk, when you listen to the Iranian commentators, that's what they think this is all about. This is, this is all just churn until, until we get more forces there and it's, it doesn't actually amount to anything and it's just a delay. Can you blame them though? I don't blame them because, you know, we attacked them right in the middle of negotiations. I do think that the White House, I do think the White House actually wants an agreement though. So I don't think they want to use two views and you know what I mean? But the other alternative is just to double down on this blockade. And I do think the blockade's having, putting pressure on the regime.

• 34:29Speaker 03

  My only question, and this is for an economist, probably more than, than us, but so if we just double down on the street and we completely block 20% of the world's oil supply without any end in sight. And we're not going to try to force open the straight militarily because it's too risky. It's, I mean, what is that going to do to global energy crisis? If they just accept that it's going to, and then what if they start, you know, Houthis get in the game, you know? And they start, I don't know if they can completely block the bomb, but I think they can certainly make, make it difficult. We know that. So, and then we're just stuck here. We're just stuck with, and then they're going to have to do something because if you cut them off entirely,

• 35:12Speaker 03

  they're going to have to do something to change the game. So it's the Houthis, it's attack, you know, Qatar, UAE, the energy facilities in those countries in Saudi. Like all the issues that we're trying to deal with as they shifted this from a conventional military fight to kind of like a, you know, asymmetric economic.

• 35:34Speaker 03

  Type fight of attrition get magnified, right? I mean, there's nothing coming out of the straight. There's nothing that goes through the Bob. I mean, that would be. Oh, the other thing about the aircraft carrier is it actually went. I think I'm wrong. I think it went all the way around to avoid.

• 35:55Speaker 05

  Yeah, right. The Horn of Africa or something crazy. Isn't that right?

• 35:59Speaker 03

  Look it up. While you guys talk.

• 36:01Speaker 05

  Bottom line on that, I think is that. So, so one of the things, though, you know, I think Dee kind of chimed in there and he said, well, hold on a second. Each time, you know, we've seen this buildup, we've used it. Uh, we saw the buildup in Venezuela, used it. And so while it makes no sense for there to be escalation right now, I mean, there is a buildup. Um, and, and, you know, we can't kind of discount that, you know, Trump's true social posts only, what, an hour or two ago? When he threatened now, um, to, uh, once again, to destroy all Iranian, uh, uh, what was it? It was bridges and, um, uh, power plants. Kind of, you know, more of this kind of infrastructure Armageddon.

• 36:41Speaker 05

  And so, you know, uh, I think that there is reason to be concerned because when Trump has threatened these things, he actually has carried them, uh, uh, carried them out while, although this time it seems to be, you know, perhaps this is the next, obviously you guys would address this better than, than I would. And as opposed to ground forces on Carg Island or, or, you know, or anything like that. You know, the next step in any escalation would be some kind of bombing campaign against infrastructure targets. Um, you know, maybe that's what, as you climb the escalatory ladder, that's what the, that's what the Pentagon is, is recommending versus kind of something that, uh, which, which of course is going to lead to world condemnation. There's going to be talk of, you know, is this war crimes, et cetera, et cetera.

• 37:23Speaker 05

  But, um, you know, maybe that's what's next on that kind of the menu. If these talks in Islamabad don't go anywhere.

• 37:30Speaker 03

  So it's off the coast of Namibia. It's going around Cape of Good Hope, uh, for the Wall Street Journal and it'll be in the, in the area at the, close to the end of the month, if not the first week.

• 37:47Speaker 04

  A lot of C6 sailors going around the Cape there. That's an unusual move for the US Navy.

• 37:55Speaker 05

  Clearly they did that.

• 37:56Speaker 03

  Says a lot, yeah.

• 37:57Speaker 05

  Right, force protection move, which doesn't really, I mean, okay, but that's not, that's not what you really want to project in terms of.

• 38:05Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's not confidence inspiring. Also, like, what's next on the menu from the DOD is arguably war crimes.

• 38:16Speaker 02

  Says, it kind of says how far this has gone, like, out of control, frankly. I mean, Andy mentioned it before about, like, when they gamed this out, Schrader Hormuz was the number one thing to worry about, right? The asymmetric threat, the fast attack boats and stuff like that, not so much their destroyers or whatever, frigates or whatever they have. Not so much their two F-14s from 60 years ago. And so we knew this going in. And up until we started bombing at the end of February, on the table was a supposed deal that was better than the JCPOA, in terms of like uranium enrichment and stuff like that.

• 38:58Speaker 02

  So I think like just going at it and bombing and attacking Iran with Israel, it doesn't, hasn't really benefited our position, I would say, at all. Especially now they're like, oh, if they don't have another 24-hour session and everyone goes home upset, everyone's maximalist on either side, because everybody thinks they're winning and nothing gets done, the next move is just to bomb bridges and power plants, like, that's insane to me. Or grab Karg Island for an extended period of time to squeeze their oil revenue, like, while our Marines are getting fucking incoming the entire time? Like, how many, like, there's got to be a casualty assessment on what that would look like, and it can't be good at all.

• 39:39Speaker 02

  There's no way we can protect all of them, just have 500 Marines just sitting there protecting an island while they're catching, not even strays, they're catching direct fire, like, all day, every day. I just don't know how any of it makes sense, frankly.

• 39:53Speaker 03

  So the 11th maybe gets there mid-May, according to several overhauls, so.

• 39:59Speaker 04

  I think the, I mean, I think the military buildup there, you know, and I get everything you guys have said is correct, but I think the military buildup there is a red herring. I think it's a.

• 40:12Speaker 04

  I think it's a show of force to back negotiations and I think obviously we have to, we have to back what we said about forcing the blockade or whatever we're calling it now the straits, but I don't for a moment see us resorting to using ground troops, marines and any capacity aside from in maritime interdiction operations. Yep. Just, you know, for all the reasons that we've said, it just, it would be such a strategic faux pas that I'm pretty sure that, that all the generals who haven't been fired yet are advising and admirals are advising strongly against it.

• 40:57Speaker 04

  And, and I think, you know, you said earlier, I wasn't a diplomat, another thing I'm not is, I'm not an economist, but, but I'm fascinated by reading about the impact of the war and a little bit dismayed because even if the straits are opened, the way that it's been explained is that the risk premium is already being built in, right? So even if, even if oil is physically moving, prices are going to remain elevated because of a persistent geopolitical risk that the straits will close again, or there's going to be a tax on tankers infrastructure and so insurance rate go up, costs go up.

• 41:40Speaker 04

  And that's, we're not insulated ultimately from the effects. Fuel costs, transportation costs, energy costs, the IMF has, has downgraded global growth forecasts, raised inflation, inflation expectations across the globe and warned of a global recession now. I mean, I don't think that's just posturing. I mean, these are all realities. So I'm, I'm hoping and I'm thinking, I mean, these things are, these are, are factors that affect this administration, right? I mean, the, the economics of all of this are, could well be disastrous.

• 42:25Speaker 02

  Well, the writing is on the wall in terms of the midterms like they, you know, everything that all polls are projecting that the Republicans are gonna get wiped out in possibly, definitely the House and possibly the Senate too. So the writing is definitely on the wall. They see this is happening. And like you mentioned, like everything going up fertilizer is gonna go up, which means food's gonna go up. We had an economist on a couple of weeks ago talking about all the things that are like second and third order effects that are affected by the straight being de facto shut. I don't think this administration really cares frankly about the midterms. I think they care about getting a win in the press. And I think this whole thing is like frankly, and this is super cynical, like, like this is content.

• 43:10Speaker 02

  And it's crazy.

• 43:11Speaker 05

  Well, I think there's a, there's an argument to be made at the, you know, and, and that, you know, the midterms are already lost. And so this is kind of, and I subscribe to this a little bit. I mean, this is kind of legacy defining stuff for Trump Venezuela, Iran and Cuba. I think there's some element of truth to that. And so, you know, with that in mind, I think, you know, maybe the administration is willing to risk that, that economic pain if they can get a win out of Iran. I just, the problem is the enemy gets a vote and we're kind of stuck. And, you know, the great line, there's no easy button right now. I mean, for all accounts that you read in the press, who knows if it's true or not, that Trump and even Hegseth, which is amazing, or maybe not, is surprised at Iranian resiliency. Now, they shouldn't have been. If they had Iran experts, they would have said Iran and

• 43:54Speaker 05

  Iraq fought a brutal war and the Iranians suffered terribly. And I think the Iranian regime is, you know, is certainly willing to, to, to sacrifice kind of the well being of its people in perpetuity for this. But I do wonder that kind of they just the calculate, you know, Trump wants a win in Iran. And, and, and, you know, perhaps that the losses in the midterms are already baked in, won't matter at this point. And you can make an argument, again, you know, let's say there's a win, let's say Iran capitulates totally. They give up every, energy prices are still going to be brutal. No, Americans don't give a shit about foreign policy. So Trump could get this win, but if gas prices are still

• 44:36Speaker 05

  high and not even come November, it doesn't even matter in November. It matters when, this summer. I mean, at some point, the midterms are, they're gonna, the Republicans are gonna say it's lost no matter what. It's too late because Andy, I think you know that the residual effect is just, is gonna be, is gonna take months and months. I mean, we're talking, I think KLM, you know, just announced they're gonna run out of jet fuel soon.

• 44:56Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 44:57Speaker 05

  And so, you know, so, you know, there, but there is a notion that Trump is doing this as, as something for his legacy. And the problem with that is his legacy is to do anything that Obama didn't do. Or not to do anything Obama did. And so what would be the right agreement now, just in it? Because you have two sides and there's gonna have to be compromise would be a kind of a JCPOA 2.5. It's pretty obvious. And that might not even be, you know, in terms of, I, I think it's abandoning the Iranian people. There's no doubt about that. And you might not address the proxies and the missile inventory. Uh, but it just in terms of the actual nuclear side of things, there's probably something that all of us in a vacuum would say, yeah, that's, that's actually fine. We can probably live with that, but I don't know if Trump can politically too, because.

• 45:40Speaker 02

  They have to convince him it's a win so he can go out and crow.

• 45:43Speaker 05

  Anything that's gonna come out of his mouth, if it's a compromise, it's gonna be people like us are gonna say it's a strength in JCOP, JCPO. We did this, all this for that. So I think that puts Trump's in a bind as well, because even this kind of the art of the deal guy. Um, when there is a deal to be had, might not take it, um, uh, because he's gonna get criticized. And you do have, D, your favorite subject, you do have a very noisy pro-Israel contingent. Uh, especially on X, um, the freedom of defensive democracy crowd who, you know, it's maximalist position on everything. And that's, I mean, Lindsey Graham, um, it's, it, it obviously he's not part of the, any kind of lobby group, but you know, Lindsey Graham has been kind of throwing.

• 46:24Speaker 02

  He isn't, you could have, you could have, uh, told, you could have convinced me.

• 46:27Speaker 05

  So I'm saying, but Lindsey is warning in the press, hey, you know, no capitulation, um, kind of like Obama. So I think there is some constraints politically from Trump, from his right, that he's boxed himself into. I mean, you can't have JD Vance go to Pakistan, offer 20 year, um, delay in enrichment. And then Trump literally publicly the next day saying, I don't like that.

• 46:48Speaker 02

  So I think what happened, I think what happened was that was based on like, uh, releasing that 20 billion that's frozen. And, uh, once somebody put out that test balloon online.

• 46:59Speaker 02

  Got a lot of, lot of heat from like the, like the groups you were talking about.

• 47:03Speaker 05

  You can't offer it and then.

• 47:05Speaker 02

  I think that's literally what happened. That's why they yanked it away. Really, I think they're throwing up test balloons. That group that you mentioned, they put it out and they start shitting on it. Pick up a little bit of steam, get some calls for some donors. Adelson calls up is like, what the fuck? And that they pull back. That's what happens. It's, I think it's that simple. There's no strategic. Yeah.

• 47:27Speaker 05

  It means negotiations is impossible. You can't, I mean.

• 47:29Speaker 02

  That's what's happening. Yeah, it's, it's fucked.

• 47:31Speaker 04

  So you, you guys bring up a really interesting point. If you narrow it down to what are US interests, right? What really are our interests? Not Israel's and, and I get it. Israel's an ally, blah, blah, blah. But, um, first of all, you know, a couple of comments in the chick poa, we didn't really determinedly go after proxies or ballistic missile inventory. At all. It was all focused on nuclear, right? Nuclear. Because we realized that we couldn't, even back then, we couldn't materially affect that. Uh, for any extended period of time through an air, air campaign. The only reason now I, the proxies, when we talk about the proxies, let's talk about the proxies that we, United States care about.

• 48:14Speaker 04

  And this is an argument, uh, obviously I'm not, and so I, I invite pushback. We care about the militias in Iraq, right? Because of their influence potentially on the Iraqi administration and the threat to our own. Forces in the region because they have proven historically not to be friendly, right? We should care about them and we care about the Houthis because of the mischief they get up to now and then by. Uh, in, by closing the ban. Hezbollah, we care about Hezbollah because Israel cares about Hezbollah.

• 48:49Speaker 04

  Now, in fairness, we care about Hezbollah. We say because of stability in the region, we care about Hezbollah because we want Lebanon to be a functioning democracy unless Hezbollah threatens that, right? But bottom line is, we don't really care about Hezbollah. That's not the reason. We care about it because of Israel. Because Lebanon goes to shit in a handbasket and we don't make a concerted effort to help Lebanon. We care about Hezbollah because the Israelis are telling us Hezbollah is an existential threat. Do we care about ballistic missiles coming from Iran? No, those were never a threat to us. Really, honestly, I would argue, never a threat. Our guys in the region were at a threat from militias launching fucking drones and everything.

• 49:33Speaker 04

  Yes, they were provided by Iran. But you see what I'm saying? That we set these goals that we couldn't achieve through an air campaign that weren't even that important to us. And the core issues were going after the particular proxies that concern us. And but most of all, that nuclear program. And I think that's what we need to focus on. And by the way, reduction of proxies, yeah, it makes sense. We talk about going after the source in Iran to dissuade them. Iran's never going to be dissuaded from support for the proxies. Iran's always going to see that as a great way to strike back, an asymmetrically strong way.

• 50:16Speaker 04

  Because trying to prove that they're doing it and interdict that flow of lethal aid has proven really difficult. So the solution is to go after the proxies themselves, and I'll shut up in a moment. But that isn't... But you can't do that purely through a military campaign, as the Israelis have found out again and again and again, right?

• 50:39Speaker 04

  Hezbollah is deeply embedded in the economic and the political structure of Lebanon. Unless you have a concerted reconstruction effort, unless you... You you give the UN there a different mandate or even insert another peacekeeping force to back the government of Lebanon and call it a building power capacity effort. You're not going to affect Hezbollah for any long period of time and mowing the grass, killing thousands of civilians, drawing civilian infrastructure just means you're setting conditions to have to go back and do it again in a few years. These are lessons that the Israelis have not learned. But I feel as Americans, as United States, we need to be smarter than that.

• 51:23Speaker 04

  And now now our interests to what are our national interests?

• 51:27Speaker 03

  And I think that, you know, the negotiators now, Andy might agree with you, at least it sounds like they do, in the sense that they're only talking about the nuclear issues. They haven't heard anybody talk about.

• 51:39Speaker 04

  And the straits.

• 51:40Speaker 03

  Even restrict, yeah, well, that, yeah, I imagine Blinken and Burns and.

• 51:46Speaker 04

  That's right.

• 51:47Speaker 03

  President Obama was like, wait a minute, that's what we did and you guys criticized this and now you're doing the same thing. And they're not including ballistic missiles and proxies that I that at least there's no discussion of it publicly. Again, in the Pentagon, we thought, okay, well, let's keep the agreement. But then if they're doing things on the ballistic missile side or certainly the proxy side, why don't we just address it separately?

• 52:11Speaker 04

  Right.

• 52:12Speaker 03

  Like by looking to get together, you make it almost impossible to get to an agreement, which isn't anybody's interest. So it's I'm not advocating that you have to include it, but that's the whole reason why we got out of it in the first place. So there's going to be a lot of, I think part of it is just, it's almost like nowadays, our policy is so tied to domestic politics that it can't stay consistent because it's all about trying to get a political advantage over your political opponents, which means you can't agree with anything they say, even if it was in the interest of the United States. Like the whole concept of, you know, politics ends at the water's edge, you know, Beninburg, that's like gone. Like it's now, it's like, it's just all wrapped into it and people, they don't even, you

• 52:56Speaker 03

  know, and there's been a lot of talk about this, people who are adamantly opposed to wars in the Middle East are now for a war in the Middle East. It's like, well, what do you stand for? I mean, I can understand, I can disagree with people, fine, happens all the time, but it's really hard to disagree with somebody that actually doesn't believe what they're saying. It's like, well, what is it? Are you opposed to the, what do we say, six trillion dollars in, in foreign wars over the last 20 years? Or are you for it now, but simply because it's in, you believe it's your political team?

• 53:30Speaker 05

  I think that hypocrisy is just going to be pretty, kind of laid pretty bare if, if there is going to be an agreement. Because as you guys noted that, you know, when, when you see the criticism of the JCPOA is, is a lot of it has to do with the, the lack of attention on the ballistic missile inventory and the proxies. I mean, that just, that it's like the receipts are there. Um, so it's going to be interesting to see how, uh, how people react to that. Now, there also was the, you know, the, the, and this, this goes along, by the way, exactly, you know, Trump's negotiating style. He actually, if you think about it, he would be like, those are too hard. Let's not do those. We're going to go on the one thing that we probably can agree on, which would be some kind of, uh, a new deal. And so, uh, but the hypocrisy is, is, is pretty stunning. I mean, Andy, I, I push back just a little bit.

• 54:14Speaker 05

  I mean, I, I don't have to tell you this, you know, obviously that Hezbollah, the, the history of Hezbollah is, um, uh, record of killing Americans is, is, is pretty acute. And so, uh, you know, that's, it's, so I, I do think there, you know, Hezbollah is still an organization. There's still our Hezbollah plots and we, we still, you know, there's active counterterrorism operations that go on against Hezbollah. Arguably, of course, not, um, to the same level of threats to US forces in the region from Iraqi Shia militias. But, but I do, I, I wouldn't discount, you know, Hezbollah threat to Americans. That's I would argue

• 54:44Speaker 04

  being killed by Hezbollah in the last five years. How many American servicemen have been killed by Hezbollah?

• 54:48Speaker 02

  Also, I would argue too, that a lot of the American people don't even know where the fuck Hezbollah is or can point out Lebanon.

• 54:55Speaker 05

  I really do.

• 54:56Speaker 04

  I mean,

• 54:57Speaker 02

  You're wild. No, I don't, I totally disagree with you on that.

• 55:00Speaker 04

  Hezbollah did kill 241 Marines, but that was 40 years ago. I mean, that's like when I came in the Marine Corps going after the Japanese because they killed, you know, it's, it's history. We, I, listen, I'm, I'm overstating this just for the sake of argument. Of course, I, I'm not a Hezbollah. Of course, they, they need to go, they need to go, they're, they're destructive to the, the entire region. Um, what they've done to the country of Lebanon is, you know, I don't think people realize, many people don't realize that. So I don't want to get on the tangent of, of supporting Hezbollah. They, they need to be eviscerated, destroyed. What I'm saying is mowing the grass is not the way to do that.

• 55:41Speaker 04

  And and I'm agreeing with you guys. Yeah. So we we narrow it down. I mean, a version, a modern version of of speak softly and carry a big stick is go into these negotiations, willing to compromise and but the stuff that we can do behind the scenes, right? That we've done before, we could continue to do to bring pressure on that ballistic missile program and do real things against it and against the proxies, especially against the proxies, without resorting to this massive air campaign that looks good and press, you know, in in press,

• 56:20Speaker 04

  press conferences, but it's cheese.

• 56:22Speaker 05

  And you bring up a really good point, because one thing that that we don't see as much of, and I think it's, and I I have a theory on this, I don't think President Trump likes covert action because he can't brag about.

• 56:34Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 56:35Speaker 05

  But but there's a part of this.

• 56:36Speaker 04

  He does.

• 56:37Speaker 05

  Action, you know, that that I think, and again, we're, none of us are in in government right now. But so many of these things could be kind of handled, you know, quietly behind the scenes with very aggressive covert action plans. And I I don't, you know, I I don't think it happened during the Biden administration. I don't know what's going on in the Trump administration. I think probably a lot of our covert action resources are are focused in the Western Hemisphere, uh, on Mexico. I mean, um, uh, you know, mixed old crowd is probably all brushing up on Spanish right now. Uh, and, uh, and so, so I, but but but I don't think this goes in line with what Trump likes. Like covert action doesn't work for him because he can't talk about it. That's not fun.

• 57:14Speaker 04

  And and it takes time, right? I mean, it it it takes time and patience to to get it in place and and to see effects. Yeah.

• 57:25Speaker 03

  That's where I go. That's where I go with all of it.

• 57:28Speaker 02

  That's where you need to go. And I'm a dirty liberal like commie, and I'm I'm saying that's where you need to go. Like, hit Russia back too for the fucking Havana stuff, like.

• 57:37Speaker 03

  All behind the scenes.

• 57:38Speaker 02

  Behind the scenes. Hit the Iraqi, the Iranian militias in Iraq. Hit Hezbollah. Like, do it covertly.

• 57:45Speaker 04

  Yeah, we should be the best in the world in doing that stuff.

• 57:48Speaker 03

  And it should be continuous. If you look at the Reagan type of. Uh, the way he did national security had a very robust military, but didn't use it that often, but he was a nonstop on the covert side.

• 58:00Speaker 05

  Right.

• 58:01Speaker 03

  Like that's it, you know, that's the traditional Republican approach, the one I promote, I guess.

• 58:08Speaker 02

  I would argue not to uh, sell weapons to Iran to fund some covert action.

• 58:14Speaker 03

  That's a specific thing. It's a concept I'm talking about.

• 58:17Speaker 02

  I'm just saying.

• 58:18Speaker 03

  It's, it's, it is walked softly and carry a big stick and the big stick isn't used that often because it doesn't necessarily uh, help the US overall, but the covert stuff, the, the, you know, that's continuous.

• 58:32Speaker 04

  El Salvador, Colombia were both six, ultimately success stories.

• 58:38Speaker 03

  Right. Afghanistan, you know, against the Soviets. I mean, there's all sorts of examples. Some, some of it are gonna work, some of it isn't gonna work, but that's just, you know.

• 58:46Speaker 05

  The Soleimani strike, you know, all of us were kind of shaking our hands, shaking our heads, saying, why wasn't this done under title 50? Why in the world was it done under title 10? Why brag about it? It's just people just.

• 58:56Speaker 02

  Cause he was in the Ukraine, he was do.

• 58:57Speaker 05

  No way Trump can do that. He just.

• 58:59Speaker 02

  He was getting impeached for Ukraine, bro. That's why he did it under that title. That's why.

• 59:04Speaker 03

  But you get a, I mean, covert action eventually comes out, right? So you get credit historically if that's what your big issue is. So, I mean.

• 59:12Speaker 04

  But, but I, I agree with Mark, but that's, you've got to be patient.

• 59:17Speaker 03

  Speaking of covert action though, so what's going on with all these scientists we get receiving killed? I don't know, but it's starting to be like, go beyond just conspiracy theories.

• 59:27Speaker 02

  I think it's 11, 11 or better.

• 59:29Speaker 03

  What is going on? Cause that.

• 59:33Speaker 03

  What? I mean, when has it become a statistical impossibility for this many, right? I'm just throwing it out there. Cause you know, we obviously do it. Israel does it. We're at war with a country who, you know, has incentives and then all of a sudden we're seeing all these scientists, uh.

• 59:52Speaker 03

  I'm just throwing it out there. Don't have any evidence.

• 59:55Speaker 05

  Social media, I haven't followed it, but yeah.

• 59:58Speaker 02

  Followed a tangential like on the periphery. I don't know.

• 1:00:00Speaker 05

  You should be all over this. This is up right up your alley.

• 1:00:03Speaker 02

  No, it's not up my alley at all, but.

• 1:00:05Speaker 05

  It's dirty stuff. You like this.

• 1:00:06Speaker 02

  Aren't they UFO people? Is that why?

• 1:00:09Speaker 03

  There's a bunch of nuclear scientists.

• 1:00:11Speaker 02

  Oh, getting clipped. I don't know. Who's got who benefits? Qui bono, right? Isn't that the question? Like that Latin.

• 1:00:20Speaker 03

  How they think it's going to help them, but except for the fact that we're doing it to them.

• 1:00:26Speaker 03

  Right? I mean, how many Iranian nuclear scientists end up getting offed? I I'm just bringing, because if, you know, obviously somebody who has authority needs to review it. If it's, if it's a threat, we need to, we need to address it. I guess that's my point for breaking it up. Like the FBI needs to start, okay.

• 1:00:43Speaker 05

  Wait a second.

• 1:00:43Speaker 03

  It's not going to change our nuclear status.

• 1:00:45Speaker 05

  I brought up, we had to talk about.

• 1:00:47Speaker 02

  Yeah, you walked right into that one, bro. How do you expect the counter intel and the FBI to be fucking doing a good job? The guy's passed out in his fucking office. They're trying to knock the dog down to wake him up.

• 1:00:59Speaker 05

  That Atlantic story was as well sourced as you can get. And they got a.

• 1:01:03Speaker 02

  They said a dozen sources, Mick.

• 1:01:05Speaker 03

  Can someone send that to me? You know, my real man, I mean, I don't talk about friends. Like I, I have no cash. Well, we did a lot of stuff together when he was a prosecutor. If you guys ever become director of something and I'm, I'm not going to get on here and talk about you guys. I've just that.

• 1:01:24Speaker 05

  All I know. Okay. So let's switch, but I have a good, I have a good way to, to, to, to make Mick not feel uncomfortable about this because one of the things that we've seen, it's a little bit of a, little bit of a shift here. One of the things he's seen is this incredible, and I hate it. I won't retweet it, won't repost it, but you watch it with some, you're like, they're pretty good. Is this Iranian propaganda campaign? Um, with all the stuff they're putting out with the Legos and they just had one with cash. And you know, he's with his hockey shirt on, holding a beer, passed out. Um, but there is, there's the Iranians are crushing us on kind of uh on propaganda. Do you guys know what I'm talking about?

• 1:02:00Speaker 04

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:02:00Speaker 03

  Totally.

• 1:02:01Speaker 05

  And and it's concerning because you know, Trump, the Trump administration, the State Department, cut off the office that was supposed to counter this stuff. And so we're just getting creamed on you.

• 1:02:10Speaker 03

  Global Engagement Center, that's right.

• 1:02:12Speaker 05

  Yeah, and so we're getting killed on this thing. And it's so I'm I'm really conflicted because just, you know, it's it's when I say impressive, I hate even saying that, but you're looking at it's pretty sophisticated. It's showing a nuance of kind of US politics. It's really hard hitting, it's working, and these are spread all over the place on TikTok.

• 1:02:28Speaker 04

  Millions.

• 1:02:29Speaker 05

  What are your guys' thoughts on that?

• 1:02:32Speaker 04

  Yeah, I've just written about that, actually. The information domain, we we are losing. We're losing at the at the strategic level. And um, and that's a good, it's it's kind of interesting when you, the BBC did a uh, a documentary about that. And again, I and and I I'm just talking about what came out in this documentary. I don't know for sure, but the argument, but what it appears happened is that, you know, you removed this upper layer of the IRGC who were, you know, their their pedigree went back to the revolution, right? I mean, that's not an exaggeration. I mean, Soleimani or the Iran Iraq war at the very least, uh, the eighties.

• 1:03:15Speaker 04

  Um, but they were, you know, tough guys, but they they were rooted in that kind of thought pattern. They and so when it came to propaganda, it was very, it was cumbersome, it was, you know, it was Mueller-ish.

• 1:03:30Speaker 05

  The boomers got, the boomers got wiped out.

• 1:03:32Speaker 04

  Boomers came up and they're like, hey, we know how to reach the American or the global population. And uh, and they and they, those TikTok videos are, I mean, they're masterful. I mean, in a way that you rarely see propaganda and you see, and and they're doing something that propaganda really does. It it pulls in an audience that the adversary audience, but that audience is pulled in not laughing at the propaganda, they're laughing along with the messaging, um, which is.

• 1:04:05Speaker 04

  Which is very unusual. You think about Second World War, um, the Brits had someone called Lord Ho Ho, you know, it was a trader, basically, used to broadcast and, and it was forbidden to listen to him. Brits used to listen to him because he was, he was funny in a way that was not intended. He was just a ridiculous figure. Hanoi Jane, right? Um, famous too. G I S used to listen to her. Um, but, but it was kind of laughing at her. But people are watching these videos because they were genuinely very entertaining and funny. And like all good propaganda, there's a kernel of truth in them and some of them.

• 1:04:42Speaker 05

  So like I have a heart, I, I, I, I like it, but then I hate it because I can't stand the Iranians and I want to see them, uh, the Iranian, the regime gone. But, but it's impressive and, and you're right, Andy. It's, this is not from the old stodgy, you know, 1980s crowd.

• 1:04:57Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:04:58Speaker 05

  I think I, did I see somewhere that this might even be being produced in the West?

• 1:05:02Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:05:04Speaker 05

  California?

• 1:05:05Speaker 04

  Uh, well, there's, there's a couple of commits. So what happened? There's a copycat. Uh, the, so there's an American copycat, uh, producer, producer of these Lego videos and, and, and they're being produced for domestic political reasons, right? Not, not pro Iranian, but they've seen how, how impactful they are when the Iranians release them. So of course, you, you may see a video circulating now called, what should we do with the drunken Hegseth? Right? And it's set to a Dropkick Murphy's song and it's, it's actually pretty funny. Um, and there's another one.

• 1:05:39Speaker 03

  Why is it gotta be a Dropkick Murphy's song?

• 1:05:41Speaker 05

  Oh, Dropkick Murphy's is another.

• 1:05:44Speaker 04

  And, and there's another one about.

• 1:05:48Speaker 05

  Anti-Trump as you can get.

• 1:05:50Speaker 04

  And, and that, and the company, it's, it's one dude. He's in Montana, right? And I think he attended the Whitefish Security Conference and got the idea from there. But it's, and it's called Ponder. He's the keynote speaker next year. Yeah, but, but the, but the ones that, the original ones are being produced outside Iran, but by Iranians.

• 1:06:10Speaker 05

  Okay.

• 1:06:10Speaker 04

  Um, by companies that were contracted by the Iranian government. And so they're hip, they're savvy. They know how to get these, these things out. They're, they're fluent English speakers. Uh, so they understand, you know, they, it's AI, but it's very clever AI.

• 1:06:24Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:06:25Speaker 04

  Because they're, they're putting in the right language models, the right terminology.

• 1:06:29Speaker 05

  Andy, did you say you wrote on this recently?

• 1:06:31Speaker 04

  No, I wrote about ends, ways and means, strategy in the campaign. And I talked about the information domain and how we were losing in the information domain.

• 1:06:43Speaker 05

  Amazing.

• 1:06:43Speaker 04

  And how we got rid of some of the key capabilities too before the war. It's not just the GEC, but you talk about minesweepers in September. We decommissioned the five, last five Avenger class mine countermeasure ships in Fifth Fleet, actually in the US Navy and sent them back. That's why we're so dependent on coalition countries.

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• 1:09:05Speaker 04

  Is to help us do mind sweeping. So we made some bad, bad choices that have made us vulnerable. But yeah, that's a great point, Mark. The information war, we're way behind.

• 1:09:20Speaker 05

  Do we need a, we need an eyes on video like that? AI generated with those little Legos.

• 1:09:27Speaker 02

  Yeah. Yeah. We can make that happen. It's probably easy now.

• 1:09:31Speaker 05

  I think, I think that should be your homework for this week.

• 1:09:33Speaker 02

  I don't do homework, bro. I don't do, I haven't done homework in 35 years.

• 1:09:37Speaker 04

  It's a really clever one. You can look it up. It's called "Your country's run by pedophiles." And, and the-

• 1:09:45Speaker 02

  Don't look that up. Don't look that up. Gonna get on the list.

• 1:09:50Speaker 04

  But the, but the, the song and the chorus is so catchy.

• 1:09:54Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:09:55Speaker 04

  My colleagues were kind of humming along to it in the-

• 1:09:57Speaker 02

  Yeah. That's what's good about it. Yeah. I mean, that's how you know. Also, I think that issue with, especially like the MAGA, the entire MAGA sphere and why they're having so much trouble with the info is because they're fracturing, right? Like half of them, you know, really are not, not into like the wars and stuff like that. And also I think where they're putting a lot of, a lot of stake into the CENTCOM briefings and the CENTCOM Twitter, like, nobody believes that shit. You want to make something funny, easy to understand, not like, oh, we destroyed 600 of these today.

• 1:10:30Speaker 04

  Yeah. So D, you'd be really good at this. I mean, think about it.

• 1:10:35Speaker 05

  Well, no, I just, I just want to mention one thing because I've been on my tirade the last couple of episodes about these Pentagon briefings. Because I, because I think just Hegseth is just, and with his kind of those religious connotations were way out of control. And then I was kind of criticizing even perhaps the chairman. But the one thing that Admiral Cooper and Dan Kane, the chairman, did last time, which I thought was really good and smart was highlight just kind of the role of the, kind of the, the airmen and the sailors. And I think that's something that is actually positive to do. And, and because, you know, we do have to kind of keep in mind that there are people out there in harm's way. And, and so you guys know what I'm talking about when, when, when

• 1:11:16Speaker 05

  there's just so many kind of just little different vignettes. And I, and I actually, I do think that is useful. It's far more useful than, you know, than Hegseth's kind of JV football speeches, which now tangs with some kind of religious connotation, which is just, it's beyond cringe worthy right now. But just wanted to kind of throw that out there, highlighting the role of, of individuals who Cooper and Kane kind of come across in their travels. That kind of appealed to me. I like that. I'm saying something positive about one of the briefings. How about that?

• 1:11:45Speaker 03

  Yeah, well, our military is the best in the world. I mean, I will buy it.

• 1:11:49Speaker 04

  But it's always, it's always the fallback, isn't it? That, you know, you eulogize the soldiers, sailor, marine, but it doesn't really get us anywhere if you're sending them to war.

• 1:12:00Speaker 04

  Potentially for the wrong reasons, I'm saying, you know, I mean, we, we eulogized them all the way through Iraq and Afghanistan, but we were still killing them for a corps in, in ways that, I mean, I'm, I'm overstating the case. That's, that's, it's an all volunteer force. I don't get teary eyed about casualties, the uniform personnel, but I do, I, I do think there's an obligation to make sure we shed their blood. It's in a coherent course and for strategic gain, right? And that's, that's the part that, that I think we, perhaps, perhaps Congress is missing right now.

• 1:12:36Speaker 05

  Well, I mean, you have, you have 300 injured plus and 13 Americans killed in action. So Trump's going to own that. You know, whatever happens on here, this, that was on, you watch his decision.

• 1:12:46Speaker 03

  So I think it's end of April, will it be 60 days, right?

• 1:12:51Speaker 02

  Yeah, so I think, yeah, right around there because it's like everyone's.

• 1:12:56Speaker 05

  I don't think this is a great rant ass and the Congress is just non-existent. So technically you're.

• 1:13:01Speaker 02

  Well, the Congress both voted like both houses, Senate and the House of Representatives both voted against. Reeling in.

• 1:13:11Speaker 04

  I I don't understand.

• 1:13:14Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:13:14Speaker 03

  Yeah, it changes when.

• 1:13:15Speaker 02

  Totally, yeah.

• 1:13:18Speaker 04

  I don't understand how you advocate your constitutional responsibility, right? No one's saying you must stop the war. They're saying, hey, by the War Powers Act, you need to put the, the Congress needs to vote on this, right?

• 1:13:31Speaker 03

  Yeah, that's what I'm looking up, but that's my understanding. Sixty days, they have to actually take an affirmative step.

• 1:13:37Speaker 04

  So so I think people are conflating the, hey, this is unpatriotic if you oppose the war. No one's saying that. They're saying you you just need to ask the questions, right? What what are the? What's the strategic outcome? What's the end state desired? Are we going about it the right way? Blah, blah, blah.

• 1:13:54Speaker 02

  Just do your fucking job.

• 1:13:56Speaker 04

  It's a healthy mechanism.

• 1:13:58Speaker 03

  At the end of sixty days, according to the War Powers Act, the president has to do one of three things. Get congressional authorization to continue and the military action. Or withdraw forces from a conflict, which seems to be the same thing to me. But so this is specifically saying that at the War Powers Act, you they have to take an affirmative step to continue. It's not just, we're just not going to vote. Now, I know no president has ever agreed that that's constitutional. Not sure why the Supreme Court hasn't decided that seems kind of important.

• 1:14:30Speaker 02

  Is there an argument to be made that like when they called for the ceasefire, bomb stop dropping, that sixty days re- resets? Is there an argument there?

• 1:14:41Speaker 04

  I don't know. I don't know what what constitutes end of hostilities according to the War Power Act.

• 1:14:50Speaker 05

  I mean, this is the same Congress. This is the same Congress that voted to confirm him, Seth is sacked, as Tulsi has, DNI has cashes. They're not going to do anything. I think the only time, the only reason they would do, the only way to do something if US ground forces are introduced. Uh, uh, that, that, I think people would become very uncomfortable with that.

• 1:15:09Speaker 02

  I mean, you would hope that that would guilt them enough to do their fucking job.

• 1:15:13Speaker 04

  No, I, I agree with Mark.

• 1:15:14Speaker 03

  They don't. But they don't. And even if you add in the days that were at a, whenever it gets to 60 days. If they don't actually vote to continue, then they've just voided that act, right? The act is no longer.

• 1:15:30Speaker 02

  It sets a bad precedent, that's for sure, that like the act is like basically, we don't, we don't even go by it.

• 1:15:36Speaker 05

  For a long time. I mean, that's, you know.

• 1:15:38Speaker 03

  I don't think we've ever. We used to do things under it because it, and say that we weren't bound by it, but we did like the, the briefing, the gang and all that stuff.

• 1:15:47Speaker 05

  Yeah, there wasn't a vote, authorized use of military force after nine 11, right?

• 1:15:51Speaker 03

  Yeah, and we extended that all the way to our operations in Syria, right? Two thousand and eighteen. But technically, there was a congressional authorization. There isn't now. Like, this doesn't have anything to do with the nine 11 tax, right? We can all agree, no. Yeah.

• 1:16:07Speaker 04

  I think Congress got used to being lazy and exercising that constitutional obligation in the global war on terror. Because yes, the AUMF was just extended almost without discussion for 20 years.

• 1:16:26Speaker 05

  This is, this is a perfect thing for you two lawyers here. Um, uh, it's this notion that I think the, the White House subscribes to and Trump does is the, the, the notion of the unitary executive. Um, you know, it's a very powerful executive, uh, uh, branch that does kind of supersede legislative, um, and judicial. I mean, that's the theory that people on, on the, some on the right have, and I think that the White House certainly is exercising that. There's a ton of research.

• 1:16:52Speaker 03

  They gave it a fancy name, essentially means that we have some imperial president.

• 1:16:56Speaker 04

  That's a, that's a really, that's an interesting, um.

• 1:17:00Speaker 05

  I think the federal.

• 1:17:02Speaker 05

  It's the idea of, of, you know, the unitary executive. There's a lot of stuff.

• 1:17:06Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's a fancy word for dictator.

• 1:17:08Speaker 03

  It's a fancy word for not constitution, not under our constitution.

• 1:17:12Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:17:13Speaker 03

  That's, yeah, like our constitution clearly says, the president's commander in chief. So once he's authorized by Congress, you have to have one individual that's in charge. But it's not that they, that the president, regardless of what your political position can decide to go to war. You know, and be the commander in chief. That's clearly not what it says in the constitution.

• 1:17:33Speaker 05

  It's an excursion, though.

• 1:17:35Speaker 04

  Right, yeah.

• 1:17:38Speaker 05

  No, Mick, Mick, you are, you are, you are showing you are old, true, and I would say, good, classic, righteous, old school Republicanism here. That's the way, you know, constitutional Republican, but that's not, I think, the theory of many who are in power. And that's unfortunate because by the way.

• 1:17:57Speaker 03

  Remember that, that theory only holds when they're in power. Like, they're not gonna, they're not gonna promote the unitary, uh, you, right, executive theory when, uh, you know, the next Democrats in the.

• 1:18:06Speaker 05

  Exactly. That's the thing that I don't understand sometimes. That this, this all can be turned around.

• 1:18:11Speaker 03

  Neither.

• 1:18:12Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, it's, it's easy to, they're full of shit. It's okay to say it. It's okay to say it.

• 1:18:18Speaker 03

  Both sides are full of it. Both sides are full of it.

• 1:18:20Speaker 02

  What side is, what side is pushing for, for a de facto dictator to, uh, per, you know, unitary executive to do whatever he wants? Like, I don't see, like, Cory Booker calling for, like, Biden to be the unitary, you know, executive, you know, let's be real here.

• 1:18:38Speaker 02

  Let's be real.

• 1:18:40Speaker 02

  But anyway, yeah, they're full of shit. It's fine. We can admit it. And Congress is useless.

• 1:18:45Speaker 03

  I think there's a growing.

• 1:18:46Speaker 04

  Yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm proud of us. We had, we had an elevated, relatively intelligent conversation without John.

• 1:18:55Speaker 02

  I'm surprised by that too.

• 1:18:57Speaker 05

  And I gotta do TV later.

• 1:18:58Speaker 04

  We had to look a lot up though. I know. When I, when I, I do wanna say when I tuned in though, you were talking about, um, Man Ass Thursday. And, uh, and, and wiping.

• 1:19:12Speaker 02

  That was offline, Andy. That was off the record. Yeah.

• 1:19:15Speaker 04

  That was, yeah.

• 1:19:16Speaker 05

  Nostalgically. I'm gonna steal something from you today. There's no.

• 1:19:19Speaker 04

  Very nostalgically from the agency guys.

• 1:19:22Speaker 05

  No magic easy button is gonna be a quote I use later on on TV. That's really good. I like it.

• 1:19:28Speaker 05

  And I'm not gonna say this is for my friend at ABC, Mick Mulroy. I can't say that.

• 1:19:32Speaker 04

  You can't say that on NBC?

• 1:19:34Speaker 02

  You could say your friend Mick Mulroy, but I don't know.

• 1:19:36Speaker 05

  I will, I will credit you on that. And let's, let's also just go back. We'll say one thing on this, uh, Dee, that, um, for those of us who spent a lot of time in Afghanistan and made it through unscathed, uh, gastro-wise, uh, a quick trip to Pakistan to the serene hotel where all these negotiations, uh, are taking place, uh, would engender a massive bout of dysentery from like 24 hours on the ground. Um, so I'll, I'll take my.

• 1:19:59Speaker 04

  That's what we were talking about. I've got to follow up with a story to that, Mark. So the Saudis who are very close to the Pakistanis, in fact, according to the local media, a whole, uh, bunch of Pakistani soldiers arrived. So they have an exchange program. Good friend of mine who's a senior Saudi naval officer, um, did a tour with the Pakistani Navy and I asked him about that. And he said, yeah, they, you know, he said, yeah, yeah. I mean, you know, Saudis are very polite. He's like, yeah, they're nice people, blah, blah. He said, but you know, on the ship, their toilets, there is no system. It just goes into the sea.

• 1:20:36Speaker 04

  Literally, anyway, they. Yeah. Before I get attacked, that's, I'm just quoting, said something about that. And I thought we would bring the tone of the conversation back to toilet humor, since we have two Marines and Dee here. And two Marines and two Greeks. It's naturally where these things grow, I think.

• 1:20:58Speaker 02

  Yeah, ass and anyway, uh, anything else, boys? That was a great episode.

• 1:21:04Speaker 03

  We even talked about what's gonna happen in Cuba.

• 1:21:07Speaker 02

  I know.

• 1:21:08Speaker 05

  That's next week. We should do Cuba next week.

• 1:21:10Speaker 03

  We have to, we have to wait something actually happens.

• 1:21:12Speaker 05

  It's on. Hey, there was just a big team there from the US government, including probably some of our old friends, Mick. So they were just in Havana.

• 1:21:20Speaker 02

  And they've been squeak, we've been squeezing Cuba pretty hard over the last like a few months as well. Oh, hope everything's okay. All right, guys, do us a favor. If you want any of the links of the guys, the links are down in the description always. And if you're listening on audio, they're also down there as well. Um, best place to support the show is patreon.com slash the team house. You get episodes ad free and early. That's it. As always, guys, I appreciate it. Thank you.

• 1:21:47Speaker 06

  Hi, I'm Jenna Ashkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At The Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 1:22:01Speaker 07

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 1:22:12Speaker 06

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 1:22:17Speaker 08

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 1:22:23Speaker 06

  So join us and hear their stories and more because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat. It's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At The Table, the food allergy podcast on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At The Table and start listening on the free iHeart radio app today.

• 1:22:43Speaker 00

  Chat GPT for teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. Chat GPT for teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down rather than giving teens the answer. Study mode helps teens work through problems and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default and parental controls offer families additional options like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.com slash parents to learn more.

• 1:23:11Speaker 10

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:23:42Jack Murphy?

  Hey, guys. I want to take a moment to tell you about the Team House Podcast newsletter. If you go and subscribe, it's totally free. And what it will do is aggregate all of our data, all of our content that we put out, the things that are on the Team House, on our geopolitics podcast, Eyes On, things that I write journalistically with Sean Naylor on the high side, anything else that we have going on, books we recommend, upcoming guests that we have coming on the show, and also, you know, filtering in some fun stuff in there as well. If you go and check it out, we send it out just once a week. We don't want to spam you guys. It's just a kind of roll up of all of our content on a weekly basis.

• 1:24:27Jack Murphy?

  You can find our newsletter at teamhousepodcast.kit.com/join. Again, the website for that is teamhousepodcast.kit.com/join. So we hope to see you there. The link will be down in the description.

• 1:24:42Speaker 06

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 1:24:57Speaker 07

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic, in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 1:25:08Speaker 06

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 1:25:13Speaker 08

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 1:25:19Speaker 06

  So join us and hear their stories and more, because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat, it's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeartRadio app today.

• 1:25:39Speaker 00

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down, rather than giving teens the answer. Study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options, like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.com/parents to learn more.

• 1:26:06Speaker 01

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:26:43Speaker 06

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 1:26:58Speaker 07

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to "I'm deathly allergic," in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 1:27:09Speaker 06

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 1:27:14Speaker 08

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 1:27:20Speaker 06

  So join us and hear their stories and more, because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat, it's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast, on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeart Radio app today.

• 1:27:40Speaker 00

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down rather than giving teens the answer. Study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.com/parents to learn more.

• 1:28:07Speaker 01

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:28:43Speaker 06

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 1:28:58Speaker 07

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic, in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 1:29:09Speaker 06

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 1:29:14Speaker 08

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 1:29:20Speaker 06

  So join us and hear their stories and more, because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat. It's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast, on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeartRadio app today.

• 1:29:40Speaker 00

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down rather than giving teens the answer. Study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.com/parents to learn more.

• 1:30:07Speaker 01

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:30:42Speaker 06

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 1:30:56Speaker 07

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic, in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 1:31:07Speaker 06

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 1:31:13Speaker 08

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 1:31:18Speaker 06

  So join us and hear their stories and more, because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat, it's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast, on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeart Radio app today.

• 1:31:38Speaker 00

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down rather than giving teens the answer. Study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.com/parents to learn more.

• 1:32:06Speaker 01

  Cash Flow Crunch? OnDeck's Small Business Line of Credit gives your business immediate access to funds, up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:32:43Speaker 06

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 1:32:57Speaker 07

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to "I'm deathly allergic," in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 1:33:08Speaker 06

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 1:33:14Speaker 08

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 1:33:19Speaker 06

  So join us and hear their stories and more, because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat, it's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast, on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeartRadio app today.

• 1:33:39Speaker 00

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down rather than giving teens the answer. Study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.com/parents to learn more.

• 1:34:07Speaker 01

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:34:45Speaker 06

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 1:35:00Speaker 07

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 1:35:11Speaker 06

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 1:35:16Speaker 08

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 1:35:22Speaker 06

  So join us and hear their stories and more, because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat. It's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast, on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeart Radio app today.

• 1:35:42Speaker 00

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down rather than giving teens the answer. Study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.com/parents to learn more.

• 1:36:10Speaker 09

  Cash Flow Crunch on Deck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds, up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:36:48Speaker 06

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 1:37:03Speaker 07

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic, in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 1:37:14Speaker 06

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 1:37:19Speaker 08

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 1:37:25Speaker 06

  So join us and hear their stories and more, because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat. It's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast, on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeart Radio app today.

• 1:37:45Speaker 00

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down rather than giving teens the answer. Study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.comPARENTS to learn more.

• 1:38:12Speaker 01

  Cash flow crunch? OnDeck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:38:43Speaker 12

  She's been thinking about this sleepover all week, but I think about her food allergies all the time. Fortunately, her doctor prescribed Zolair, omalizumab. It's proven to significantly reduce allergic reactions if a food allergy accident happens.

• 1:38:56Speaker 13

  Zolair 150mg is a prescription medication used to treat food allergy in people one year of age and older to reduce allergic reactions due to accidental exposure to one or more foods. While taking Zolair, you should continue to avoid all foods to which you are allergic. Don't use if you are allergic to Zolair. Zolair may cause a severe, life-threatening allergic reaction called anaphylaxis. Tell your doctor if you ever had anaphylaxis. Get help right away if you have trouble breathing or if you have swelling of your throat or tongue. Zolair should not be used for the emergency treatment of allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis. Zolair is for maintenance use to reduce allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis, while avoiding food allergens. Serious side effects such as cancer, fever, muscle aches and rash, parasitic infection, or heart and circulation problems have been reported. Please see zolair.com for full prescribing information. Ask an allergist about Zolair.

• 1:39:39Speaker 13

  This is an advertisement for Zolair paid for by Genentech and Novartis.

• 1:39:43Speaker 00

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down. Rather than giving teens the answer, study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options, like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.com/parents to learn more.

• 1:40:10Speaker 10

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.