#1562 Jordi Visser | Short Squeeze Incoming? Bitcoin, Iran, and the Global Power Crisis

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos. In this conversation we talk about Israel, Iran, what it means for the stock market, bitcoin, oil, gold, AI stories of the week, inflation coming in weaker, and what Jordi is excited about. ========================This episode is brought to you by Figure, the platform to Earn and Borrow. Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure offers Crypto-Backed Loans, allowing you to borrow against your Bitcoin or Ethereum with 3-month terms and no prepayment penalties. They have the lowest interest rates in the industry at 9.9%, allowing you to access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. Unlock your crypto’s potential today. Visit https://www.figure.com/pomp to apply for a Crypto Backed Loan today! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.========================Bitizenship helps Bitcoin-forward investors gain EU residency and a path to Portuguese citizenship in five years while maintaining exposure to Bitcoin. Their regulated fund qualifies you for the Golden Visa through an operating company focused on Bitcoin-native innovation. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.========================Invest as you spend with the Gemini Credit Card® (https://www.gemini.com/pomp). Sign up today and get approved by 6/30/25 to earn a $200 Bitcoin bonus. Terms apply (http://gemini.com/legal/credit-card-intro-promo-terms). The Gemini Credit Card is issued by WebBank. See rates & fees (https://www.gemini.com/legal/cardholder-agreement) for more details. Some exclusions apply to instant rewards in which rewards are deposited when the transaction posts. This content is sponsored by Gemini, but my opinions are my own.=======================Pomp writes a daily letter to over 265,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at https://pomp.substack.com/=======================View 10k+ open startup jobs:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://dreamstartupjob.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Enroll in my Crypto Academy: https://www.thecryptoacademy.io/

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Speaker 00

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• 0:30Speaker 01

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• 0:58Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode.

• 1:26Speaker 03

  Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.

• 1:50Anthony Pompliano?

  What's going on guys? Today we've got an excellent episode with Jordy Visser. He is in studio and I am traveling, but just because I'm traveling, we're not going to leave you hanging. So I'm excited about today's conversation. We talk about Israel and Iran and what it means for the stock market, Bitcoin, oil, gold and much more. We also talk about what's going on with US and China, the AI stories of the week. How the inflation data came in weaker and what that means for your portfolio? And then we talked to Jordy, both about what he's excited about and where he sees risks in the market now. And we finished up talking about Bitcoin and a potential short squeeze happening this year. I always enjoy these conversations and this one is no different. So here's my latest conversation with Jordy Visser. All right, Jordy, I thought a great place to start this conversation is this week, we saw Israel launch a attack on Iran.

• 2:34Anthony Pompliano?

  There's tons of people who say, oh, nothing ever happens. They're in shambles. Obviously, this is a very big geopolitical kind of movement. People think this is kind of a regime change and the treatment of some of these countries. How do you think this affects the actual investment portfolios? We saw gold up, we saw oil up, we saw Bitcoin down right after the attack. How do you see this playing out over the next couple of weeks?

• 2:56Speaker 04

  Well, let's break it down into two parts. The first one is every single time in history that any country or any war breaks out in any side, so anytime missiles are fired, anytime there's an invasion, the immediate reaction is what we've seen so far. Particularly when it involves countries in either the Middle East or Russia. You get the immediate reaction for those who think Bitcoin should rally on this. Bitcoin, at the end of the day, is always going to be related to the economy and especially the digital economy. So it's going to have part being stocks and part being get away from the governments. So I don't, I never see it as a geopolitical hedge and I just leave it at that for Bitcoin.

• 3:39Speaker 04

  I've been involved with markets from a trading perspective and reacting to events like this for 30 years now. That's how long that I had a trading portfolio. That's how long I literally had to make a decision. And I understand younger people who look at this and their brain immediately goes to some dark place. But the reality is these conflicts usually end up being a major event for day one, day two. A week later, they become lessened as long as it's not escalating in a big way. And I'll just use a couple of examples. Iran fired missiles into Israel back in December, I believe, of last year.

• 4:19Speaker 04

  I don't know if people remember that, but they sent two, 300 missiles at Israel after Israel assassinated someone inside the country. And so you end up with a situation that people think this is going to be a bigger issue. When Israel went into Gaza, we ended up in a situation where everyone said if they go, if something starts with Hezbollah, then this is going to be a major thing. So I don't want to minimize the fact that we have a Iran who's threatened nukes before, and we don't know exactly what they have. But the reality is these things usually kind of flame out. Russia, Ukraine has not had an impact on the markets that people believe.

• 5:02Speaker 04

  And I'll just mention that in the last 15 years, the highest price in oil was one week after Russia invaded Ukraine. So these things normally don't have a long lasting impact. If oil stays at 100 plus for three months, it'll start to have an impact. But if it just goes up and it stays here for a week and then it falls back down to where it was beforehand, it will have no impact on the global economy whatsoever.

• 5:25Anthony Pompliano?

  I saw somebody say something online yesterday, which I'd never heard before. And I apologize to viewers and listeners because it is somewhat grotesque. But I think it is an important point. They said that one of the rules on Wall Street is to sell the bombs, but buy the body count. And their point was when things are happening, it is all about actually people are selling. And then all of a sudden, once the kind of initial attack is over and people start talking about what is the damage, kind of the retroactive analysis, that's when there's then the rally. Is that generally, it sounds like that's similar to what you've seen kind of throughout your career across these asset classes?

• 6:04Speaker 04

  Yeah, it's really hard in the moment. And I think, again, take it back to what I said. In the moment, the day it happens, everyone's freaking out because the anxiety kicks in as to what could happen.

• 6:17Speaker 04

  For stocks to be impacted, you need to impact the economy or earnings, plain and simple. You can have a sentiment shift where people worry more about the future, but then as time goes on, we're still going to measure this based on the economy and earnings. And so in the same way that we worried about the tariffs, and I mean, it's, it's another example of just, oh my gosh, this is going to crater the economy. We're going to have serious inflation. And what you see is the forecasts have been dead wrong on every level of the tariffs and extrapolating this scenario into what it'll mean three months from now, no one knows. So it's not worth just jumping off a building and going through. Short term, you're going to see it impact the ability for risk taking, but stock buybacks

• 6:59Speaker 04

  will not stop. They will continue. And if anything, they will be there to buy on the dip.

• 7:04Anthony Pompliano?

  Now, obviously people will look across the stock market and with Bitcoin and they will say, oh, are there certain stocks I should be buying? You know, I joked last night that Palantir is going to be worth a gazillion dollars. There are private companies like Andoril and others that I think people are starting to look at this, but there's a lot of defense stocks as well. And now again, this is Israel and Iran. The United States is claiming that they were not actually involved, but I do think that people see kind of a drafting of these defense companies. So how do you think about the defense sector in terms of an investment opportunity? And then also maybe as an overlay like Bitcoin, you mentioned earlier as like a geopolitical hedge, maybe you don't see as much. So talk just like, what are the actual impacts on individual asset kind of verticals when something like this plays out?

• 7:46Speaker 04

  Again, the knee jerk in defense stocks will be to go higher. I'm going to go a different angle on this. And what I like to do, and we talked about this briefly about something like Brazil. The reason I like Brazil is the Venn diagram of they benefit from AI through the mineral side, meaning rare earth minerals. They have a lot of supply. They benefit from the China US trade divorce where Brazil kind of fits in between. It's a big partner of both of them. I personally think

• 8:18Speaker 04

  It's about power, meaning even if energy doesn't stay up at the levels it is now, it's way off of the lows. So we've already rallied from, say, $55 in WTI up to above 73 this morning. Even if it settles in the high 60s, we're at a point right now where I think the dominant theme, the Venn diagram of investment ideas that people need to have, is they need to be focused on power and energy going forward this year. So we have a potential of a supply shock in the Middle East at the same time as we're going to have a continued demand shock on the AI power needs. And the market has not built this in yet. I'm

• 8:58Speaker 04

  actually working on a trade idea for next week for 22V that is specifically built around some of the stuff I saw this week from Oracle in their earnings announcement. So I think instead of looking of I'm going to get out of stocks because there's a war going on, or I'm going to go buy oil because there's something going on, I think the right thing is to look at the Venn diagram. What's structurally going to happen no matter what? We're going to run out of power for AI. I want to find energy names that to be long. And now you've got this extra thing where I think there'll be a premium on oil going forward. You got two places to go invest in.

• 9:36Anthony Pompliano?

  Talk a little bit about this AI Oracle thing. Larry Ellison talking about this idea of insatiable demand, it seems like. What was your takeaway?

• 9:45Speaker 04

  The Oracle commentary was incredible. The numbers were a blowout number. And this is not a small company. So you're dealing with a company that is large. It's been large for a long time, but it's been growing and it's, you know, half a trillion dollars. And you get a day where the stock is up 14% on the back of their earnings announcements. Well, Larry Ellison said on the earnings call was that the demand is insatiable and astronomical. And he specifically mentioned that one client asked for all of their capacity anywhere in the world. Not, and he basically said it was one customer. That just highlights the demand that's happening in AI.

• 10:28Speaker 04

  You and I have talked about this, that I think at the beginning of the year, the DeepSeek fears, the Cowen reports on Microsoft data centers and all this stuff.

• 10:40Speaker 04

  What Oracle confirmed is that for the foreseeable future, there is demand. They announced their capex numbers would be at least $25 billion next year. So this is not one of the hyperscalers. Remember, Oracle is directly involved with Stargate. So you have this kind of thing that anyone who is doubting this side is missing it. And something I didn't mention last week is I didn't see this, but I listened to an interview with Lex Fridman with Sundar Pichai from Google. And he made the comment that the token demand that they had at this point was 50 times higher than a year ago.

• 11:17Speaker 04

  So tokens are basically the, think of it as the power, the output or the power that's being used for the demand for AI. And when you go through the chart and you look at it and you can go into X and see he posted the chart. I mean, it's a parabolic growth rate. This was before VO3. So now that VO3 has been released and I've talked about how insatiable this demand will be. This is where it gets into the power situation. You're dealing with tokens, which effectively are the AI power demand. They equate to power. I did the calculation. I went into chat GPT and I asked how to equate the numbers that they were talking about, which I believe was 480 trillion tokens.

• 12:00Speaker 04

  And you, on an annualized basis, and if you go in and ask what that is, it came out to about a quarter of a percent of all the electricity demand in the United States. So the way that I look at the Oracle thing is anyone who's doubting the demand side of AI is missing it. We have a supply problem. That's going to keep growth going in the US. The race for AI is going to continue to happen. And I just think that people need to start focusing on the power side because that's one of the bottlenecks. It's going to start to show up very, very soon.

• 12:31Anthony Pompliano?

  When we look at other big stories this week, China and the US trade deal, I'll kind of put it in air quotes a little bit because it seems like we agreed to something but haven't yet signed it. It is a contingent on the approval of both President Xi and of Trump. But talk a little bit about, you know, it's this weird dynamic. We have the AI story going on and it's so clear like how much demand and how quickly this is all going. Do we have the geopolitical conflict, which has so much uncertainty? And then you have these things that kind of sit in the middle, right? Where it seems like the US-China relationship is better today than it was two or three weeks ago. But we still do have a degree of uncertainty and like what exactly is going to be that final deal? Even though details have been released.

• 13:12Speaker 04

  Yeah, I mean, I've used this analogy before, but we are in the separation period before the divorce of the two countries. And the divorce is going to be that neither one of us wants to be dependent on the other's supply chain. So in the case of the US, we're holding off exporting high-end chips to them, which is necessary for AI. On their side, they were holding off rare earth minerals, which is critical for both AI in the US because it's critical for semiconductors. But it's also critical for the military. So you need these for fighter jets, you need these for drones, you need these for everything.

• 13:53Speaker 04

  In fact, if you go through a fighter jet and like you can go look it up and see how many different parts of the fighter jet need rare earth minerals. So that's what I said last week, the trade war is over. As far as I'm concerned, this is a separation where they have to get along. They're going to mediation. That's what this is. I'm going to keep using the divorce thing. They are literally in the middle of mediation and they're like, well, you give me rare earth for six months and I'll give you chips. Now that's the one thing that hasn't been announced yet. But behind the scenes, most people believe that there's some kind of an agreement from the US to give them some sort of chips. I believe there is because basically it looks similar to Geneva,

• 14:34Speaker 04

  but it's very clear that we called them, we went through this and then we sat down and we're trying to end up in a situation where there's no more fighting and we'll go focus on the other trade deals. But I think the China-US thing has come to a stalemate and we're just going to have to agree to export things. There may be little flare ups along the way, but I don't think this is going to have the impact that people thought it would say two weeks ago.

• 14:57Anthony Pompliano?

  When we get clarity in that, whether it is separation or divorce, is it just a game where both countries are so dependent on each other that they need to buy time in order to be kind of build up the resilience to then be separate? I kind of think of it's like, you know, a married couple who says, hey, we both got to pad our bank accounts before we actually go through the divorce that we got to, you know, to eat and get our own places and kind of do all that?

• 15:21Speaker 04

  Yeah, and I, and I think, you know, I'll do this on my weekly video, but what has, what has come out in a couple ways this week. Scott Besant said, China, we've agreed that we need to focus on the manufacturing side in the US and China needs to focus more on the consumption side. And that is kind of the, let's say, the top-down system thinkers way of saying that's how we're going to balance this thing out is we can't be too dependent on each other to where we can't just take a pause and then go do other things. So if we're saying, and we did say, okay, we love having Chinese students in the universities here. And it was two weeks ago that we were going to ban them. All of these things all lead to the

• 16:05Speaker 04

  same thing, which is China has announced some more things to support the property market. The property market is the key to their consumption story because it's a major part. And I think China is going to continue to attempt to help the consumption. On the US side, we're going to continue to focus on building up the manufacturing stuff and getting most of the supply. Rare Earth is a perfect example. Let's get that supply chain working in the US. Let's make the investments that are necessary. So if you ask me for the next five years, that situation is much better than it was before the tariffs because China is actually trying to, they, they, they need to create stimulus. So there's two aspects of kind of the trade situation. If it's friction,

• 16:46Speaker 04

  it leads to more nationalist spending. And I think in the end, that ends up being very good overall for the global economy to make it less dependent on these little shockwaves.

• 16:56Anthony Pompliano?

  I definitely agree with that. In terms of some data that we got this week, we got the inflation data. And I thought it was pretty interesting in that the CPI numbers came in lower than expectations. It seemed pretty weak, which I think got a lot of people excited. But there still are calls. There was an article in the Wall Street Journal just yesterday that said, hey, it's time to, you know, cut rates. The case for cutting rates is getting stronger and stronger. How did you look at the data and how that may impact whether it's rate cuts or other decisions that kind of leadership needs to make?

• 17:27Speaker 04

  Yeah, I think this month was the one that everyone who's been looking for inflation to go higher, which at the beginning of the year, I did think we'd see inflation go higher. I think this is the one that people have to start thinking that something different is going on right now. And I'll say why. This wasn't just, first of all, it wasn't one data point. The PPI was lower than expected. And then when you go back the last two months, you've been seeing this happen. This is all while expectations were that tariffs were going to flow through. They did flow through. So if you go through appliances, you go through the household furnishings, the good side, we did see a pickup there. The problem is the core services and everything

• 18:12Speaker 04

  ex shelter, it was weak. Seventy three economists put in their estimates for Bloomberg. This was lower than all seventy three. When you start getting this type of scenario, that means there's something else going on because that's a lot of economists putting in their forecast and this coming in below. And again, this isn't one. So I've talked about on here, something that I think is absolutely happening. I think for the bottom 50% in the country, this is becoming a recession in a fear thing. So we looked at this soft data on the surveys.

• 18:50Speaker 04

  I think people are really starting to worry about what's happening with artificial intelligence and they're starting to worry that with rates sitting up at these levels that we're going to continue to see pressure on smaller businesses. I do think the Fed is now at a point where the surprise could be we have 65% chance of a rate cut in for September. Now, the Iran situation, if oil sits at higher levels and we see it pass through to gasoline, you'll see higher inflation numbers, they'll view it as transitory because they're going to look at the job market and they're going to look at the inflation number. But if their dual mandate is protect against inflation and look at the labor market. And claims went higher again this week on the initial jobless claims. It's not a big spike.

• 19:32Speaker 04

  It's not at a level that's worrisome, but continuing claims continues to go higher. And I've talked repeatedly about all the indications that the labor market is just soft. And in last week's video, I went through and showed that if it wasn't for leisure and hospitality and healthcare, two areas that are basically supported by social security, Medicare, Medicaid, government spending, government jobs are now zero over the last five months or four months. Uh, no, since, yeah, the last five months and the rest of it is pretty close to zero. I think the five month average is 33,000 X those two. So the job market's weak, inflation's weak. I think the surprise here could be, especially with all of the pressure coming from the White House, J.D.

• 20:17Speaker 04

  Vance, Lutnik, Trump, they've all basically publicly come out chastised Powell. I think he's running at a rope at this point, especially if next month, we don't get any more, we don't get a jump. I think that'll be the month. So I do think at this point, there'd have to be a bump up in inflation or some big jobs print to stop them cutting in September.

• 20:38Anthony Pompliano?

  So from that standpoint, does that pretty much free walk us to all time high of stocks? Or do you still have some reservations in terms of what that could look like?

• 20:49Speaker 04

  I, I think we're heading to all time highs unless, unless Israel and Iran turns into something that moves oil up to significant levels. What Oracle talked about, what I'm starting to see flow through on semiconductors, the demand that I expect to have happen from the build out, I think people are still way off base on what's going to happen with earnings. I think the profit margins are going to remain. The higher levels, I saw some strategists who I won't call out that were talking that after the PPI number, they're looking at how the this is showing signs that we're in a recession. The problem for everyone is going to be that artificial intelligence is going to disrupt

• 21:29Speaker 04

  all of the historical correlations between the economy and profit margins that they've seen. The economy is still absolutely fine. It's just that AI is driving everything good that's going on. It's also forcing stocks higher, which helps the wealth effect. But for the bottom 50% who again, don't own many assets and are at at risk for jobs both from small businesses that can't compete in this environment and also from, you know, entry level jobs for for against artificial intelligence. I think we're in a perma trend here. I do not think this is going to be something that goes away quickly. So I think people have to get used to this dynamic. That's a very unique situation in the history of the country.

• 22:11Anthony Pompliano?

  Is there any other data points that you're really paying attention to? You know, one of the things that I started to see now is more and more people are looking at alternative metrics and trying to kind of back into, hey, what's going on? We did see over the week, right before the Iran-Israel situation, there was this Twitter account that tracks the orders to pizza restaurants that are around the Pentagon and they swiped and they tweeted something like, you know, hey, immediate surge in activity. Two hours, three hours later, there was the attack. And so again, is it a one off? Is it actually something that you can tell? Who knows? But I just find it fascinating, like this obsession with the alternative data that can tell you things.

• 22:56Anthony Pompliano?

  Is there anything else that you pay attention to?

• 22:57Speaker 04

  Not really. I honestly, like what you're talking about, those things are more interesting to talk about than to actually go through. I will say this.

• 23:10Speaker 04

  So I use every L L M for different reasons at this point. So what's happened to me is I don't have a favorite one. I can remember when we were, we were talking in Miami. At that point, I was kind of migrating towards perplexity. I'd use chat G P T. And now what's happened is I use perplexity for everything related to finance. It has, for the most part, taken away and now 60% of my Bloomberg usage, which is amazing to me. I never thought as someone who's been using a Bloomberg for 30 years that that would happen. But for everyone who's in the finance industry, everyone who's watching is a hedge fund person, perplexity is a phenomenal tool to get realtime information. And so the comments that I made with Larry Ellison, which are into my head, I read that commentary,

• 23:54Speaker 04

  and I do it with all, I did it with a Vaga with, with Broadcom when, when they released earnings. I'll do it with Micron coming up. I go in there and I get all of the commentary. I use YouTube to get all of the transcripts on everything that goes through. So instead of picking alternative data, I think what's become easy for all of us, that is where I'm spending my time, is less on, let's say, alternative data, but it's turning text into data for me and into realtime information where I can consume an enormous amount of detail. So Bloomberg used to be my alternative data source. I'm not using that as much, and I'm going directly into perplexity. And I've built so many chat G P T

• 24:35Speaker 04

  projects. I think I mentioned this last week. I did my first demo for a hedge fund on how to use it realtime and how to go through it. And to be fair, you know, they're not allowed, they weren't allowed to use it. And I think that's where alternative data should migrate to. I think people should be turning text into data and doing that. You just need to use your L L M and pick the ones you want to use.

• 25:00Anthony Pompliano?

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• 25:42Anthony Pompliano?

  And so go visit figure.com/pomp to better understand exactly what they're doing and how these rates work. You can go to figure.com/pomp today. Today's episode is brought to you by Bittisanship. If you're a Bitcoiner thinking about global mobility and securing a true Plan B, listen up. Portugal is one of the most attractive Golden Visa programs in the world, and Bittisanship has built the ideal pathway to get you there. They're behind the first Bitcoin ecosystem Golden Visa Fund. It's a private equity fund that purchases Bitcoin via a local company. That gives you exposure to Bitcoin while qualifying you for the Golden Visa and citizenship in just five years. Plus, here's what makes this a no-brainer.

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• 27:49Anthony Pompliano?

  And I look at it as, you know, historically in these market cycles, Bitcoin has run. And then at some point, there's kind of quote unquote alt season and people then kind of rotate from Bitcoin further out on the risk curve. And then you kind of see the altcoins run. I don't know if that will still persist. It does seem like Bitcoin has kind of sucked the air out of the room and it has become the consensus that this is the thing that Wall Street wants. But Ethereum now did break above that 200 day moving average. And so how do you see the relationship of kind of moves in the Ethereum ecosystem to something like Bitcoin?

• 28:23Speaker 04

  So I'm going to equate it. I mentioned this last week that I really don't think Bitcoin can have the spike move that I think is going to happen this year, a significantly, you know, higher move in a month than people thought possible. For that to happen, you need Ethereum and Solana to be going higher. For that to be happening, in my opinion, we need to work through all of what appears to be the supply that's out there. I mentioned, and I'll continue to mention, this feels a lot to me like the post.com bubble period in 2000, really 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005. And for people that are too young for that, like you, it's a big issue. Meaning,

• 29:06Speaker 04

  there was an overhang of people that had these companies that had been valued at a billion dollars. And Bill Gurley had an excellent podcast this week on Invest Like the Best with Patrick Shaughnessy. And he went through what he called, I think he called it VC unicorn zombies.

• 29:29Speaker 04

  This equates directly into the crypto space. And I think theoretically, I think right now, Solana and Ethereum are basically unicorn zombies for now. His argument was that these companies have been disrupted. There's been major things. They were in a zerp period. Now they're post zerp. They've got rates at higher levels. They raised an enormous amount of capital. They haven't taken their marks down. Now you've got the private equity guys that are selling. I think all of this overhang in the zombie unicorns is having an impact on the investment side of crypto in a very similar way. I think the breaking point, and I've said this all year, and now I think it's going to be like that Sundar Pichai thing. I think we're going to enter a period very quickly of stablecoin explosive growth.

• 30:14Speaker 04

  Not this linear growth. I mean explosive volume growth. They've been growing and you monitor this, you feel it. This is the point where I think the amount of stories coming out, I have trouble in my videos, keeping my crypto part as small as I try to keep it, which is about a third. I try to keep TradFi at about a half, AI and Bitcoin at the other half. It's getting harder for the crypto side, and it's really getting harder because of stablecoins, because even this week, Amazon, Walmart, they're all talking about having their own stablecoins. This is becoming a bigger thing. And once the volumes start to explode and the traffic's going on, I think people are going to go back to the Ethereum's, the Solana's, the Suisse, all the guardrail parts, all of the infrastructure parts. Once they break out, which I think will happen, that's when I

• 30:59Speaker 04

  think Bitcoin will go and you'll get to see a turn. But we have to break away, in my opinion, from the zombie unicorns.

• 31:05Anthony Pompliano?

  That makes sense. What is the thing that you're most worried about right now in terms of kind of the downside? I think that when everyone was bearish, you and I both were pretty bullish. It seems like that played out in our favor. Now I feel like optimism is creeping back in. And so it makes me think, well, maybe there are some things we should be looking at or pointing out where risk could exist that people are kind of blind to. What are those areas that they use to see where that could happen?

• 31:32Speaker 04

  Well, first of all, the biggest risk is that we're no longer alone in being bullish. So I learned a long time ago that when everyone's kind of throwing their hands up and going through it, that's where the risk is. I will say, I'm going to keep going back to the same thing. I think the power situation for AI is not understood. I really do believe that we'll be talking about electricity prices. We'll be talking about blackouts. We'll be talking about a lot of things that the demand side is just, it's really going to be hard. When you wake up every day and there's a new story about one of the hyperscalers securing something at Constellation Energy, it's something at Talon Energy. And the reason I'm doing a trade piece, the energy market's not priced properly.

• 32:16Speaker 04

  So even companies like Exxon, Chevron, people think of them as oil companies. They're not oil companies anymore. Yes, they have oil. They also have gas. They make gas-fired plants. We need an enormous amount of gas-fired plants. So I don't think investors have fully come to terms with the production side. We need this and I don't think we're going to have enough power. So I think that's one element of it is that that could cause inflation. It could cause a slowdown in AI. It could be the thing that kind of becomes an issue that shows up. But I think the sentiment is the bigger thing. And then the two pieces that will eventually be a story. We haven't fixed the fiscal deficit. We still have debt to GDP at the level that we do.

• 32:58Speaker 04

  I think we're going to have a period where either the dollar and/or rates will become a story again in the second half of the year and people start to worry. Other than that, it's the sentiment and the fact that nobody's worried about anything, which is probably the biggest worry.

• 33:13Anthony Pompliano?

  That makes sense. And in terms of Bitcoin, you previously in past weeks have mentioned this short squeeze. And it feels like Bitcoin now is traded, I think it's over $100,000 for at least 30 days, maybe 40 days. And so there's kind of this renewed enthusiasm there. But do you still see the possibility for some sort of short squeeze to drive the price higher?

• 33:36Speaker 04

  I think it's going to happen and I think there'll be a month that it goes on. And I think it's going to be a painful, I think it's going to be a painful move for a lot of people. The FOMO crowd is going to feel the pain. But because if people don't want to buy it at 100,000, they're certainly not going to want to buy it at 200,000. But then there's another angle. I really do believe in watching this market and seeing how much the volatility has come down. It doesn't get talked about often enough, but 30-day volatility on Bitcoin has dropped way below 40. I heard Paul Tudor Jones on Bloomberg this week.

• 34:10Speaker 04

  He said, you know, you want to be long Bitcoin, you want to be long gold, you want to be long stocks. And I happen to agree with him. Again, and the reason was, he's like, they have to run inflation above interest rates. And he specifically mentioned what Japan is doing. Japan has an inflation problem right now, meaning it's way above interest rates. He's saying that's what the US has made the decision to do, which is run inflation hot. He made this comment, though, and I love Paul, but he's wrong. He said vol adjusted, and he said Bitcoin is five times the vol of gold. That's not true anymore. Bitcoin vol has migrated down, even on every measure, it's down to about 40 some odd. Best case scenario is gold, you could say three times. Right now, gold vol is more like 20, Bitcoin

• 34:53Speaker 04

  vol is like 40. So we're at two times. I think this is what's happening, is Bitcoin keeps running into these 105,000, it goes sideways, 110,000, it goes sideways. This all says to me that there's a short vol position out there that is creating a long gamma position for traders, and it gets it pinned at these strikes. I can see the options on Deribit. And so I think as an old derivatives trader who grew up in this stuff, when you have an instrument that trades at a 40 vol, and it's pinned there, and Michael Saylor has been out there, and he's selling vol, everyone's selling vol, at some point, when you start to get up into these areas, and it starts to run away, I just think you're gonna have a squeeze. So I think we're gonna have it this year. And rather than get, you

• 35:34Speaker 04

  know, people get impatient because they want Bitcoin already to be 150,000. Just be patient. When the vol squeeze happens, you're gonna feel it.

• 35:42Anthony Pompliano?

  I love it. I love it. Where can we send people to find you on the internet?

• 35:46Speaker 04

  My YouTube channel. If you just go in Jordy Visser or Visser Labs, you'll find me there. My Substack, for people that are interested, I did write a Substack this week on trying to help people with AI, and basically highlighting that the biggest risk for you and your children is that you're not using it every day. And I go through kind of a simple technique on how you can start to get more comfortable with it. You can follow me on X. And then for the people on the institutional, but also, we're getting more people that are high net worth individuals in trading. I am putting out trade ideas weekly, usually, if not every two weeks, at 22V Securities, 22V Research. You can find me there.

• 36:26Anthony Pompliano?

  Amazing. Well, thank you so much for doing this, and we'll do it again in the next week.

• 36:31Speaker 04

  Thanks, bud.