250. TRIP US: Why Trump won't go to jail

What was it like to visit Michael Cohen behind bars? Why is it almost impossible for Trump to go to jail? How many good working hours does Joe Biden have a day? Join Anthony and Katty for episode 4 of TRIP US, as they answer all these questions and more. 🌏 Get our exclusive NordVPN deal here ➼ https://nordvpn.com/restispolitics It’s risk-free with Nord’s 30-day money-back guarantee! ✅ Instagram: @RestPoliticsUS Twitter: @RestPoliticsUS Email: [email protected] Video Editor: Teo Ayodeji-Ansell Social Producer: Jess Kidson Assistant Producer: Fiona Douglas Producer: Dom Johnson Head of Content: Tom Whiter Exec Producers: Tony Pastor + Jack Davenport Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:04Rory Stewart?

  This episode is brought to you by NordVPN.

• 0:06Alastair Campbell?

  And I must thank NordVPN because on my Grand European Tour with Fiona, I was away from the Hawthorns for West Bromwich against Burnley, but I managed to watch it. There you go.

• 0:19Rory Stewart?

  I actually had a NordVPN thank you. I was in the new Starbucks here in Crete. And of course, the thing flashed up, saying this is an unsecured public network. And I was able to go to my VPN. It was a little reminder of something we often forget when we're in all those cafes and things, which is actually genuinely, people can do all kinds of weird cyber attacks and spying if you don't have a virtual private network when you're sitting in that Starbucks.

• 0:42Alastair Campbell?

  Well, I think, are you not really sort of proud of me that I managed to do this? Or should I say Fiona managed to do this?

• 0:49Rory Stewart?

  I'm incredibly proud of you. That's a tech transformation. So to get the best discount off your NordVPN plan, go to nordvpn.com/restorspolitics. That's nordvpn.com/restorspolitics. And the link is in the episode description.

• 1:05Speaker 02

  I get so many headaches every month.

• 1:08Speaker 03

  It could be chronic migraine, 15 or more headache days a month, each lasting four hours or more.

• 1:13Speaker 04

  Botox on a botulinum toxin A prevents headaches in adults with chronic migraine. It's not for those who have 14 or fewer headache days a month. Prescription Botox is injected by your doctor. Effects of Botox may spread hours to weeks after injection, causing serious symptoms. Alert your doctor right away as difficulty swallowing, speaking, breathing, eye problems or muscle weakness can be signs of a life-threatening condition. Patients with these conditions before injection are at highest risk. Side effects may include allergic reactions, neck and injection site pain, fatigue and headache. Allergic reactions can include rash, welts, asthma symptoms and dizziness. Don't receive Botox if there's a skin infection. Tell your doctor your medical history, muscle or nerve conditions, including ALS, Lou Gehrig's disease, myasthenia gravis or Lambert Eaton syndrome, and medications, including botulinum toxins, as these may increase the risk of serious side effects.

• 1:58Speaker 03

  Why wait? Ask your doctor. Visit botoxchronicmigraine.com or call 1-800-44-BOTOX to learn more.

• 2:05Speaker 05

  A payday candy bar is miles and miles of peanuts. Salty, crunchy peanuts, sweet, sweet caramel, wrapping you up with every bite. Enjoy the tasty journey, my friend. Payday Peanut Caramel Bar.

• 2:27Speaker 06

  Hello and welcome to The Rest Is Politics US. I'm Katty Kay.

• 2:30Speaker 07

  And it's me, Anthony Scaramucci. How are you, Catty?

• 2:33Speaker 06

  Well, I'm happy as anything because I'm out in sunny California. I took that long, long flight. Every time I do that flight, I can't believe it's almost six hours. It's almost as far to fly from Washington DC to LA as it is to fly from Washington DC to London. But you feel like you've come to a different world. And I'm here, actually. I've come out to interview Magic Johnson, the legendary basketball star, which I'm super looking forward to because he is so charismatic and has a great story and is an amazing businessman, as well as having been, of course, part of the Dream Team.

• 3:05Speaker 07

  That's eclipsing my week. I'm sitting here grinding it out on Wall Street, observing the American political scene.

• 3:12Speaker 06

  If Magic manages to get me to pick up a basketball, and I'm hoping he's going to teach me a couple of shots. I have never been on a basketball court. So if he can actually transform even me into semblance of somebody who knows how to even hold a basketball, it will show why he's such a genius.

• 3:27Speaker 07

  Okay, so since you've mentioned that, if you could somehow get me on a cricket field and explain that game to me, I'd be a very happy camper.

• 3:35Speaker 06

  I am definitely the wrong person to be doing that. You'll learn, Anthony, my knowledge of sports is suboptimal. Okay, so let's get on with the show, something that we actually do know something about. We are going to look today at what would happen to the presidential race if Donald Trump is found guilty in that Manhattan hush money trial. There was some very important testimony from Michael Cohen, somebody you know, and we'll get into that, that we should talk about this week, and what the various options are coming out of that trial. And then after the break, we're going to explore the Biden campaign. Of course, there's the big announcement that there are now going to be two presidential debates. President Biden has agreed to those. Then some polls that came out from the New York Times that

• 4:18Speaker 06

  the Biden team have told me they absolutely disagree with. So let's start with the trial. The prosecution is trying to show that the Trump Organization falsified business records in order to hide hush money. Money payments to a porn star so that the election would not be derailed for them. And they have to show that Donald Trump knew about this whole scheme, that there was criminal intent.

• 4:45Speaker 07

  Right, exactly. There was two things going on. We're falsifying our business documents. So there's a tax issue there as well as just business fraud. And then the second thing has to do with the way finance laws work in the United States. You can't take your corporate money and put it into your campaign. You take your personal money, put it in your campaign. And so if you're going to pay a porn star to keep her mouth shut as you're running up to the election. Okay, that's fine, but you got to write a personal check, but you probably don't want Melania to see the personal check. So what he did was he set up a mechanism to have his fixer, a corporate lawyer of his by the name of Michael Cohen, to do this. And so what ended up happening is they set up this scheme.

• 5:27Speaker 07

  Michael paid the porn star and then they had to reimburse Michael through the corporation. Now, from a legal perspective, that's illegal. And then, of course, did Mr. Trump know about it? And Michael, because of Mr. Trump's reputation of not paying people, recorded him without his knowledge. Now, in our state, it's a one-party state. So just for UK listeners, what does that mean? I can record Katty Kay on a phone call because I've given permission. It's a one-party state. There are certain states in this union where you need both parties. I have to say, hey, Catty, I'm recording you right now. Just want to give you the heads up. And you have to say, that's fine. Please record me.

• 6:11Speaker 07

  So he recorded Donald Trump without his permission and he's showing that as a receipt of this criminal malfeasance. So that's the prosecution side. Let me give one moment on the defense. The defense is saying that Mr. Trump did not know about it, so therefore there's no criminal intent. This was done by people inside of his organization without his knowledge. And then secondarily, everything that Michael Cohen is saying is a lie. And Michael Cohen was convicted for perjury, lying under oath in the court, and served jail time for this. So he's now an ex-felon. So the admissible evidence that Michael's bringing to the case is all lies. And you, as a juror, should discount everything that he's saying.

• 6:56Speaker 06

  And Michael Cohen is significant because he was the longtime lawyer for Donald Trump, kind of a consigliere-type figure, was sort of obsessed with the Trump family, got very in-hoc with them, did a lot of-

• 7:12Speaker 07

  Groupie.

• 7:12Speaker 06

  He was a groupie, but he was also a paid groupie. And it was his job to make bad stories about Donald Trump go away.

• 7:20Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 7:20Speaker 06

  So it was Michael Cohen who was the intermediary between the media outlet and Stormy Daniels and Donald Trump. And that's what we've been hearing about this week.

• 7:31Speaker 07

  I want to just say this to you about Michael Cohen. Michael Cohen is the example of Trump flotsam. He is the wreckage thrown overboard by Donald Trump. And so he's aggrieved and he's bitter, but I think he's honest. I think he's truthful. Now, I like Michael. I went to see him in jail. And I ended up in the transcript this week while you were heading out to LA. Blanche, the defense attorney, he says, "Michael, is it or is it not true that a gentleman by the name of Anthony Scaramucci came to visit you at Otisville, the federal penitentiary, in October of 2019?" And Michael said, "Yes." And is it or is it not true that Anthony was trying to work with you to get your sentence shortened?"

• 8:15Speaker 07

  And he stumbled on that question, okay? But then he eventually admitted that I did. And so I got asked that this week. "Well, did you go up there and try to get his sentence shortened?" Yes, I have nothing to hide. Michael's a friend of mine. And in a neighborhood like the one I grew up in, Michael's not the first person I've been to visit in a jail. It just hasn't been, you know? When your friends are in trouble, Catty, I know you're very posh. I happen to have grown up non-posh. When you've got your friends in trouble, you go towards them. You don't go away from them.

• 8:47Speaker 06

  We're going to do an episode on all of the Anthony Scaramucci friends that he's visited in jail and who they were, all part of the family.

• 8:53Speaker 07

  Yeah, there's lots of syllables in the last names, by the way. I don't remember any short Anglican last names that I visited in jail. But here's the point that I'm making about this. Of course, I tried to help him get his sentence shortened because he was a friend of mine. And that's what friends do for friends. And I think it was interesting that they brought it up because they were trying to say that there was something devious to that. But truth be told, there was nothing devious about it. And by the way, don't ever go to jail, all viewers and listeners listening out there. Even the minimum security places in the United States are terrible.

• 9:30Speaker 06

  That was a public service announcement from Mr. Anthony Scaramucci. Boys and girls behave so that you do not end up in an American prison.

• 9:36Speaker 07

  There's one other thing I think viewers and listeners should should hear. You know, why is this important? Because Mr. Trump could be found guilty in this case, Gaddy. And then how does that impact the campaign? Number one, I think it has no impact on the campaign. Because what are they going to do with Mr. Trump? They're going to arrest Mr. Trump and put him in jail for this? I don't believe that they will do that. Could they fine him? Yes. Could they provide some level of solitary ankle bracelet home confinement? They could do something like that for a week, two weeks, a month. Maximum that they'll do that. Let's say that, you know, someone would push back and say, well, no, Anthony, this is a felony.

• 10:18Speaker 07

  And this is minimum requirement of one year in jail. The Secret Service and the US Marshals are not going to let the former president of the United States go to jail. They're just not going to do it.

• 10:30Speaker 06

  Despite all those stories that at Rikers Prison, they are having conversation. Rikers Prison, which is the famous prison in Manhattan, just outside Manhattan, about how they're having conversations about how they would accommodate the Secret Service. And who is the poor Secret Service guy who gets the bum job of having to go and spend time in prison with the former president? Yeah, I agree with you. I don't see him going to prison.

• 10:49Speaker 07

  So that's the news flash for everybody listening and UK listeners listening in. There is a club of the presidency. They're not going to put each other in jail. They'll threaten it. They'll rabble rouse. They'll saber rattle. He's not going to jail. So now what happens to the campaign? I think that this is a total and complete non-event for the campaign. It's marginally helped them on fundraising because he is sending out letters, woe is me, I'm the victim. This is what we're calling lawfare. They're using the criminal procedure system to attack me as a form of war in a presidential political campaign. That is unfair to Joe Biden, by the way, and that's actually not true. But that's what he's saying. And then he's got all of his robes. This is the most entertaining

• 11:33Speaker 07

  part of this for me. They're showing up at the court, caddy, dressed like Donald Trump. They've got the extra long-

• 11:40Speaker 06

  Matching ties. I know, I like that. Did they all go to, what, they went to Bloomingdale's together and all bought red ties?

• 11:45Speaker 07

  It looks like a lot of polyester to me, okay? I think they were at TJ Maxx, or this was like Amazon Basic, okay? But, you know, I think every one of them looked fully flammable for their television appearances, right? They just had too much petroleum on, but they had the cufflinks on, and they had the tie longer than it should be. And watch me, and for those that are listening, they had their hands in the little circle move-

• 12:07Speaker 06

  In the little Donald Trump move.

• 12:08Speaker 07

  And the accordion, in the accordion move like Trump. So they're miming Trump to let Trump know that not only are we with you, but we're trying to be you. They are all auditioning for the VP in front of that courthouse. So they all want that VP nomination desperately. And so I had a couple of reactions to that. Number one, J.D. Vance, you gotta shave your beard. Mr. Trump hates beards. Okay, so when you're showing up with the red tie, you got the beard on, no bueno. And then the second thing, I got really bad news for you guys. You gotta go 13 for 10 for Donald Trump. I know you're out there trying to go 10 for 10. It's mathematically impossible to go 13 for 10, meaning you can never please Donald

• 12:49Speaker 07

  Trump. He'll always find something to back the rock and roll Volkswagen van over your forehead at some point in your life.

• 12:57Speaker 06

  Talking of 13 for 10, let's just look back up a little bit and see how this trial could pan out in terms of whether he is found guilty, innocent, or that other issue of there being a hung jury and it's declared a mistrial. All 12 members of the jury are sitting there, listening to Michael Cohen, who is the key witness in this trial, because he is the one that organized the payments to Stormy Daniels, and he is the one who stood up there in court and said that Donald told him to just do it. Apologies to Nike, Michael Cohen says that Donald Trump got there. And he made these payments to Stormy Daniels on Donald Trump's behalf. That's what he's told the members of the jury. So the jury, all 12 members of the jury could, and we think it's gonna be next week, could

• 13:40Speaker 06

  go away, having heard all of the evidence, and they could decide he's guilty, all 12 of them. Or they could go away and one of them, only one of them needs to, could come back and say, "Actually, you know what? I don't think Donald Trump is guilty, even though all my other 11 jurors think he's guilty. I think he's innocent." At which point we have a hung jury, which means there's a mistrial, which means what? Donald Trump is innocent or he's guilty?

• 14:05Speaker 07

  That's the most likely scenario.

• 14:07Speaker 06

  Is that we have a hung jury?

• 14:09Speaker 07

  Yeah, there's one Make America Great Again passionate Trump cultist on that jury that's not gonna budge and the jury is hung.

• 14:17Speaker 06

  Or a member of the jury who just has listened to Michael Cohen and they have heard the defense say time and again, "Michael Cohen is a liar. He's lied before. He's lied before under oath. Why on earth would you trust him? He's been to jail. He's not a reliable witness." And they will go away and they'll say, "Actually, you know what? The prosecution's main witness. I just don't think he's a stand-up guy. I don't believe him." And so you get a hung jury. So then he's, I mean, also, I suppose it's possible that all 12 members go away and decide he's innocent. I think you're right in terms of the politics of this. I don't see how it has much impact on the campaign. I mean, in a way, I would flip it and wonder if he's either acquitted and the jury will find him innocent, or it's a mistrial because you have a hung jury.

• 15:00Speaker 06

  I see a scenario in which actually all of this benefits Donald Trump and that he manages to get that small sliver of people who voted for Joe Biden in the last election but don't like Joe Biden anymore. At the moment, he's got like 7% of them. He manages to persuade them that, "You see, look, the system is rigged against me. I'm like you. I am a victim of the system. I'm a victim of the establishment." And that's where his genius has been during the course of this whole legal procedure. I don't think it's just that it doesn't hurt Donald Trump. I think there's a way in which the most likely, you know, let's come back in two weeks, Antony, and he's found completely guilty and then we have a different scenario, right? But if there's a hung jury or he's found innocent, I think this could help him.

• 15:43Speaker 07

  I'm gonna agree with you that on the margin it's gonna help him, but I also know the country, and you've lived here for 25 years, this country Has the attention span of a fruit fly.

• 15:56Speaker 06

  Yeah.

• 15:56Speaker 07

  Maybe a teensy fly.

• 15:57Speaker 06

  I was going with a gnat.

• 15:59Speaker 07

  A gnat. And there's a great website in this country called two week old news.com. And you can go look at it. And two weeks ago, we were banging the drum on something totally different than we're banging the drum on today in terms of what our mass hysteria is. And this trial is going to be way in the rear view mirror come election day.

• 16:19Speaker 06

  I have a question about Michael Cohen. Is there a scenario in which Donald Trump mishandled this relationship? Because it's fine to have all of these hangers on. And Donald Trump has a long history of not being loyal to people who have, you know, sweated blood for him over the years. But the only one who's really turned against him in a way that has potentially had a huge impact on him is Michael Cohen. And it was about, you know, Michael Cohen is bitter because he wasn't taken to Washington to work in the White House after Donald Trump won in 2016. He is bitter because he didn't get his annual bonus. These are, these are small rookie errors. If you're going to have somebody

• 17:01Speaker 06

  who knows that much about you and has that many secrets about you, to whom you have said, Michael Cohen says, when Michael Cohen asked him, I mean, it was extraordinary testimony this week, when Michael Cohen asked Donald Trump, you know, are you worried about upstairs? Meaning Melania. Donald Trump's reply was, oh, don't worry about that. Even, you know, if it ends, I won't be on the market for very long. I mean, Michael Cohen knew a lot of Donald Trump's seedy business. And Donald Trump kind of, as you say, tossed him over the edge without a life raft. And he should have given him a gold plated life raft to keep him quiet.

• 17:36Speaker 07

  To me, it is the blind spots of Mr. Trump's personality. And in my prediction, he won't be the guy that does the most damage. I think Mike Pence is going to be the guy that does the most damage. And Mike Pence was left out to dry in a different way. Mike Pence was told, use this cockamamie procedural thing at the Electoral College vote. And just want to explain quickly to UK listeners, the United States, you have a popular vote. And then each state, depending on if the candidate won the state, they get to send their electors to the Electoral College. Electoral College voted, and then the House of Representatives and the Senate approve.

• 18:21Speaker 07

  The vote, of course, who's the president of the senate? That would be the vice president of the United States. And Michael Pence. Mike Pence was pushed by Trump to do something procedurally illegal to assert a cause for President Trump to stay.

• 18:39Speaker 06

  Unconstitutional.

• 18:40Speaker 07

  Unconstitutional to stay in power. And Mike Pence didn't want to do that. And there was a premeditated insurrection on the Capitol. There was violence at the steps of the Capitol, into the Capitol buildings. And Mike Pence genuinely feels like his life was threatened by Trump supporters.

• 19:00Speaker 06

  Well, they did, they were chanting, "Hang Mike Pence." So it was a kind of fairly reasonable assumption.

• 19:05Speaker 07

  They had a gallows, you know, the, with the hanging noose and the whole thing. And so Mike Pence, to me, is gonna do, there are two Michaels here, Michael Cohen and Michael Pence. Mike Pence is gonna do more damage to Donald Trump. Why? He was the sitting vice president on the ballot with Donald Trump, and he has denounced him. And he says, "Under no circumstances will he endorse him." And he's galvanized about 40 people, Katty Kay, 40 people that work for Donald Trump in the inside circle. And I submit to everybody rhetorically, if the 40 of us worked at a pharmaceutical company, we told you, "This drug is gonna kill you."

• 19:49Speaker 07

  Or we worked at an airline manufacturer, and the plane's gonna come out of the sky. Or an automobile company, we said, "This car's gonna crash and kill your family." Would you then get in the car? So you have 40 people that are galvanizing and organizing, and Mike Pence will be the ringleader of those people to explain the danger of Donald Trump. So this mistake of Trump by being asymmetrically loyal, expecting loyalty one way, dishing and transacting with everybody negatively if they're not in the moment, going 13 for 10 for Donald Trump. This wreckage is going to come back to haunt them come November.

• 20:29Speaker 06

  Yeah, Michael Pence also, I was down in Arizona at a Trump memorabilia store. Apparently it's the biggest Trump memorabilia store.

• 20:36Speaker 07

  Were there barf bags on the way in or you have to take Dramamine or some, something like that?

• 20:40Speaker 06

  It's a very good site of tourism, you know, forget the Statue of Liberty, go to a Trump memorabilia store and the best selling item is a T-shirt with a picture of Mike Pence behind bars saying, "Mike Pence, traitor number one," because the Trump people hate Mike Pence for what he did on January the 6th. The other thing is that Mike Pence has the virtue in terms of being a kind of hero, Shakespearean hero in this play, of not having organized payments allegedly to porn stars or lied or bullied people or, you know, he's a stand-up kind of evangelical guy who perhaps unlike Mike Johnson, actually does live by the Bible. We don't know if Mike Johnson lives by the Bible, but it was a very funny sight to see

• 21:22Speaker 06

  Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, who said, "If you want to know my worldview, just read the Bible," turning up outside the trial in New York this week.

• 21:31Speaker 07

  Catty, anybody that says they live by the Bible, they don't live by the Bible. Okay, when those evangelicals are coming for me, I'm like, "Watch your wallet." Okay, because these guys, they don't live by the Bible. But the Americans secretly and not so secretly, they like the cheekiness of Donald Trump. Mitt Romney, the Ken doll, too perfect for the American people. Donald Trump hiding the sex with the porn star with the hush money payments. There's a weird cheekiness to that that the American people like.

• 22:02Speaker 06

  I've spoken to people in the Trump campaign six months ago who said to me, "Okay, it's not great if this goes to trial, but you know what? If it goes to trial because Donald Trump was having sex with a porn star, there are a whole load of voters out there, particularly male voters, who are not going to find that such a turnoff."

• 22:22Speaker 07

  Remember, this is the Wild West in the United States. People like renegades in this country and we have an orange-haired renegade on the loose running for president again.

• 22:32Speaker 06

  I've, I've said it before, though, there are going to be some female voters who might not find this as attractive as some of the guys out there do.

• 22:38Speaker 07

  True story.

• 22:38Speaker 06

  On that, we're going to take a break and we're going to talk about the polls and what is happening in the Biden campaign after the break.

• 22:45Speaker 02

  I get so many headaches every month.

• 22:48Speaker 03

  It could be chronic migraine, 15 or more headache days a month, each lasting four hours or more.

• 22:53Speaker 04

  Botox, otobotulinum toxin A, prevents headaches in adults with chronic migraine. It's not for those who have 14 or fewer headache days a month. Prescription Botox is injected by your doctor. Effects of Botox may spread hours to weeks after injection, causing serious symptoms. Alert your doctor right away, as difficulty swallowing, speaking, breathing, eye problems, or muscle weakness can be signs of a life-threatening condition. Patients with these conditions before injection are at highest risk. Side effects may include allergic reactions, neck and injection site pain, fatigue, and headache. Allergic reactions can include rash, welts, asthma symptoms, and dizziness. Don't receive Botox if there's a skin infection. Tell your doctor your medical history, muscle or nerve conditions, including ALS, Lou Gehrig's disease, myasthenia gravis, or Lambert-Eaton syndrome, and medications, including botulinum toxins, as these may increase the risk of serious side effects.

• 23:38Speaker 03

  Why wait? Ask your doctor. Visit botoxchronicmigraine.com or call 1-800-44-BOTOX to learn more.

• 23:46Speaker 05

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• 24:02Speaker 08

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• 24:34Speaker 06

  Welcome back to The Rest Is Politics US. I'm Katty Kay.

• 24:37Speaker 07

  And I'm Anthony Scaramucci.

• 24:39Speaker 06

  In this half, Anthony, it occurs to me we have spoken an awful lot about Trump. We just did it again, and we had a long program about RFK Jr. The one candidate in this race we have not spent a lot of time on, paradoxically, is Joe Biden. And I think it's worth us looking, because a couple of things have happened this week that give us a nice way to look at the Biden campaign and the state of the Biden campaign. The first, of course, is they've agreed to do debates, which there was some question about in the Biden camp. I have spoken to people in the Biden Team who were a little hesitant about him doing debates a few weeks ago, but this week they announced they're going to do two debates, just the two of them, Donald Trump and Joe Biden, one in June and one in September. And then the other thing is that there's been

• 25:19Speaker 06

  a bunch of polls out this week, a one in particular, which has made the Biden campaign, I was texting with somebody on the campaign last night, very unhappy. And that's the New York Times Siena poll, which points to big problems for Joe Biden. They say that's not a reliable poll, but we're going to get into some of the polling and why more than just the polling, why Joe Biden seems to be in the position he's in, given that he's the sitting president. So let's start with the debates, which are going to be an unusual form of American debates, because usually in American presidential debates, they're run by this thing called the Election Debate Commission. Both guys have said, too bad,

• 26:01Speaker 06

  we don't want the Election Debate Commission. The Election Debate Commission only runs poll debates in the autumn. We think that Americans need to start focusing on this election right now. That's particularly the Biden campaign strategy. We want a debate in June, which would make it the earliest presidential election debate ever. And we don't want an audience. And here's the critical bit. We want a mechanism whereby during the debate, if one of the candidates goes over their allotted time, I think actually we need one of these on the podcast, perhaps. Anyway, if one of the candidates goes over their allotted time.

• 26:37Speaker 07

  Hold on a second. Miss Posh, was that a little shout at me that I talk over you?

• 26:42Speaker 06

  Anyway, moving on, moving on. We need a pause button, a mute button. So there will be a mute button. They haven't devised the mechanism yet, but we're going to have an extraordinary debate where potentially you've got Joe Biden, if you're watching this on YouTube, and then you've got Donald Trump going like this, with his mouth opening, shutting, but you're not actually hearing a word they're saying. So it's going to be, I think, we spoke in the last half about attention span of a gnat. And I know that all of the research shows that presidential debates don't make much difference. But I actually think this debate, because of the high stakes, because both candidates are who they are, and we can get into that, I think these debates could be consequential.

• 27:24Speaker 07

  All right. So there's a lot there. I'll state that I believe.

• 27:28Speaker 06

  You mean I needed a mute button? Is that what you're suggesting?

• 27:30Speaker 07

  No, I like when you talk. I like when you talk. I know, I've been. Accused of mansplaining before in my life, so I'm very cautious, I try to be cautious. You're good at it. But here, here, here's what I would say, two things. Being cautious. No, no, number one, yeah, believe me, I'm, I, I, I've learned from the best of them. Yeah, my, my mom and my wife, I've learned from the best of them. But here, here's the thing I would say to you, that the debate does matter, and it mattered last time. Uh, Mr. Trump, President Trump dropped five points in the polls after the first debate, where he was catastrophic. I still have a bit of PTSD from that, from that debate. And Catty, he never, he never recovered from that. The second thing I'm going to say is, has the world changed? Yes or no?

• 28:12Speaker 07

  Now, the Presidential Commission on Debate says no, guys like Mitt Romney say no, but the world has changed, Catty. Early voting, more than a quarter of the people voting are going to vote before the first Presidential Commission debate. And so I think both candidates are justified in saying, let's make the debates earlier because COVID changed the way we vote in the country, and we want to get the information to the voter prior to them voting. Second piece that I, I, I want to say, and I think this is also very important, is we live now in an oligarchic duopoly. The two parties are controlling everything, and they screen out and make it very impossible

• 28:56Speaker 07

  for a third party to mount any semblance of a challenge. And both of these guys have agreed to kick RFK Jr. to the curb. The Presidential Commission would not have done that. 1980, John Anderson was up there with Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. 1992, Ross Perot, he secured enough of the vote, he was up there with George Robert Walker Bush and Bill Clinton. So the world really has changed, Catty, and we can discuss the fairness of it, or the unfairness of it, uh, but this is the world we're living in now.

• 29:29Speaker 06

  I think it's interesting that both men decided that this needs to be about the two of them. And I think from the Biden campaign, in my conversations with them, a couple of things. They want to kick this off early. They are worried that the country or conscious that the country is not focused on the election yet, and that there is this thing called Trump amnesia. And they want to do as much as they can to remind the country about Donald Trump, what he was like as a president before, what he was like as a debate candidate back in 2020, when we all watched that first presidential debate, when the Biden campaign is still pissed about this, because they told me about it last night. He turned up and potentially even had

• 30:13Speaker 06

  Covid and behaved kind of in this mad way during the debate. I mean, it wasn't a debate, it was a shit show. And I think secretly, they're sort of thinking, you know what, if that Donald Trump shows up again, that can only be to our advantage, and we need to remind Americans about that. I mean, ironically, both Joe Biden and Donald Trump share something in common, which is that they both believe very fervently that being up on a stage with the other guy is going to be to their advantage, and is going to make their opponent look unqualified to be president.

• 30:45Speaker 07

  So I agree with everything you said, and let's just go over what the rules are. I think the Biden camp has made a mistake with the cut the mic. Now, prima facie, it looks like they didn't, because it'll give their candidate a chance to talk without interruption from former President Trump. But I think the interruptions last time really helped then candidate Biden, because he looked like the adult, he looked like the sober person in complete control, without the crazy impetuosity. And I'm wondering if they've overhandled the situation, because you and I both know, from our people inside the White House,

• 31:27Speaker 07

  That Mr. Biden, they're concerned about him. He's 81, but he's 81 years old. He's not 81 years young. I've been told by people very close handling his schedule. He's got five or six good hours a day. He is alert. He's way better than people say that he is, but he gets tired. And so they like to schedule things when they know he's well rested, either early in the morning, or they give him nothing to do in the morning, like they did on the State of the Union. So he's fresh and ready to deliver a speech at nine, 10 o'clock at night. And so we know this. Last point, and I think this is also an important point, is

• 32:05Speaker 07

  that President Trump said anytime, anywhere, any rules. And I know he's regretting that, and I know his well-oiled, disciplined team is regretting that, because a lot of those rules play to Joe Biden's advantage, particularly the one without audience.

• 32:22Speaker 06

  Yeah. And he's already said that, right? That he wants a big venue with a big audience. This should be a show. I mean, he's, he's Trump. He wants to produce this like-

• 32:29Speaker 07

  He's a TV guy.

• 32:29Speaker 06

  He's a TV guy. He wants to have an, and I think not having the audience is more of a problem for Donald Trump. Just one thought, and I, it has just occurred to me, but I wonder what you think. That thing of cutting the mic, could it actually be that it benefits Joe Biden? Because, and I wonder if the team is thinking this, because of what you've just said, Joe Biden can be long-winded. Do you want to hear, do you want your principal-

• 32:53Speaker 07

  Interesting, interesting.

• 32:53Speaker 06

  Having like four or five or six minutes to go off on a tangent?

• 32:57Speaker 07

  Right.

• 32:57Speaker 06

  Or do you actually only want them speaking for a minute? And then the mic gets cut? And actually, that limits the-

• 33:03Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 33:03Speaker 06

  -potential for him to lose his train of thought-

• 33:06Speaker 07

  Oh, there you go.

• 33:07Speaker 06

  Or get distracted. Anyway, well, it's, it's gonna be an interesting debate.

• 33:10Speaker 07

  You've now convinced me of my contrarian thought being incorrect. I'm now back in the conventional camp.

• 33:15Speaker 06

  We're now-

• 33:16Speaker 07

  Because, because you're, you've, you've now convinced me that. But President Joe Biden's announcement that he would debate Donald Trump, uh, looked like there was at least five edits as they were slicing and dicing him with the Ginsu knives. Uh, how many times do you think he had to say those written words?

• 33:32Speaker 06

  Yeah. So what is it? It's a short 14 second announcement video that you're right. We can see five jump cuts, something that the Trump campaign has jumped on with glee, saying he couldn't even deliver 14 straight seconds without having to do all these jump cuts. And then that really cheesy closing comment from Joe Biden, which just did not land with me. I don't know what you thought about it, but it felt so awkward. Make my day, pal.

• 33:57Speaker 07

  Yes, there was a lot of cheese whiz coming out of the refrigerator. But but Catty, that's the point. The world has changed. Governor Mitt Romney, Senator Romney from Utah, said this week, Joe Biden should have ended the circus and figured out a way to get Trump pardoned on these charges. The pushback there is that these are state charges or local charges. It's impossible for Joe Biden to really manipulate that. But the second pushback is unfortunately the traditional nature of the world. You know, Downton Abbey is over if there ever was a Downton Abbey in the US. Okay, it's over and Mitt Romney is still living there because he's like, you should pardon him.

• 34:38Speaker 07

  Biden says in his 15 second speech that you know, took 15 takes to get him to say it the way they wanted. He says, I know you're free on Wednesdays. Now, what does that mean, Catty K? I know you're free on Wednesdays. Tell these viewers and listeners what that means.

• 34:56Speaker 06

  Because court does not sit on Wednesdays in New York. So Donald Trump has Wednesdays off from his hush money trial. And now they are, the Biden campaign, by the way, 24 hours in, they are selling T shirts with the logo free on Wednesdays. So they're they're making a joke of this.

• 35:12Speaker 07

  We're in the gutter.

• 35:13Speaker 06

  They they have gone down to Donald Trump. I think you're right. Mitt Romney is thinking Lord Grantham. There is nothing Lord Grantham about Donald Trump. Donald Trump is Thomas the devious butler in this scenario. So it's not, you know, this, I think Romney is back in a world where there was civility in American politics. I'm just not sure that Joe Biden going down to Donald Trump's level with the free on Wednesdays and make my day, pal, which he doesn't quite manage to pull off. He doesn't sound sort of, you know, monster boz. Enough. It was sort of, the whole thing was awkward.

• 35:45Speaker 07

  The Make My Day reference for all of you young people out there. Clint Eastwood said that in a 1983 movie, Make My Day. And Ronald Reagan used it in a coined phrase. He said, if you're going to try to push in a tax increase, make my day, meaning he was going to veto the tax increase. And Biden is trying to channel that Reagan like energy. But let's be honest, Biden is struggling. He's struggling because he has a little bit of a stutter. He's struggling because he's older. He's struggling because he broke his foot. Not a lot of Americans know this, Catty, but he broke his foot. They put him in one of those boots. You ever see one of those boots that you walk around in?

• 36:30Speaker 07

  And he wore the boot. They told them to wear the boot for eight weeks. He only wore the boot for two weeks. Why did he do that? He didn't like the imagery of him hobbling around with the boot. And now his foot is causing him tremendous pain. So when he's walking, he's shuffling. Okay, now Winston Churchill, the legendary and great Winston Churchill, did he or did he not have a cane, Catty?

• 36:56Speaker 06

  He did have a cane.

• 36:57Speaker 07

  He did have a cane. We're not allowed to have canes anymore, right? A cane 80 years ago was very distinguished. You know, if Biden had a badass silver cane, I think it would help him out a lot, but he doesn't like it and he wouldn't wear the boot.

• 37:11Speaker 06

  And they're trying to manage that to the team. They have him in these special trainers now. He also has arthritis in his hips. He has a special, particular form of degeneration in his hips, which makes it harder for him to walk. They're trying to do as few shots of him walking by himself in formal settings as they can. Give him a podium. I know this from the campaign, have him surrounded by people where he looks like less stiff. But you notice the stiffness. I mean, definitely. Up on the debate stage, that won't be so apparent, of course, because he'll be behind a podium. He'll be static. You won't see his hands, which are also a little stiff now from arthritis, I think. So you won't see that as much up on the debate stage. But you're right that the reason, the very reason they're doing the debates, and we should get to this,

• 37:56Speaker 06

  is because they are struggling. I mean, if this was an incumbent president who was way ahead, comfortably ahead.

• 38:04Speaker 06

  My hunch is they wouldn't be doing this debate.

• 38:07Speaker 07

  Okay, but why are they struggling? Okay, let's just state the obvious. Okay, he no longer looks like the nation's grandfather. He looks like the nation's great-great-grandfather. Okay, that's why he's struggling. He has an economic agenda that he could sell. He's got full employment. We've just seen something very unique for America. Wages have gone up in America faster than inflation. Our friend Steve Ratner pointed that out this morning. And this is a unique time in America where blue-collar labor is doing way better in America. And that is Biden's base, and that's supposedly Trump's base. But Biden has done

• 38:48Speaker 07

  more for them. He's brought manufacturing back. He's got great infrastructure bills that have been passed. He's reshoring chip manufacturing. But he can't sell the agenda because he's struggling with his hips, he's struggling with his broken foot, and he looks like the nation's great-great-grandfather. And this is the reason why they're trying to manage these debates to see if they can give the president a lift.

• 39:14Speaker 06

  You're right on the economy doing better and wages increasing outstripping inflation. But when people go to the supermarket, which you're a very fancy now wealthy Wall Street guy, you probably don't go to the supermarket very often, Antony, but were you to go to a supermarket, you would find that groceries are very expensive.

• 39:31Speaker 07

  I'm not embarrassed that I use DoorDash every five minutes.

• 39:35Speaker 06

  Exactly. So you don't know that groceries are expensive. So every time the Biden campaign is very frustrated with this, why don't people realize that wages are growing? Why don't people realize that inflation is coming down? Why don't people realize that? Why don't people realize that we have pumped trillions of dollars into infrastructure in the country? That why don't young people realize that we have forgiven $150 billion worth of student debt relief? But they don't realize it because they go to the supermarket and groceries. I was having this conversation with people here in California last night. Groceries are still expensive. Rent for young people is high. And I think the, and I'm talking about the young people bit of this because that is exactly where the polls this week

• 40:17Speaker 06

  show that Joe Biden has a problem. Now, there's a big debate in the Biden campaign. They're very unhappy with this New York Times/Siena poll, which came out, which showed Joe Biden behind in the battleground states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona. It showed him 12 points behind in Nevada and the Biden campaign is pushing back saying, hold on a second, this poll is way out of whack. It hasn't, its methodology is wrong. But, and there are other polls out there that shows the race much tighter. I think the takeaway is the race is tight, but it's particularly, and even Biden's own pollster has admitted this this week, they are not doing as well as they need to do with three

• 41:00Speaker 06

  groups of people, young voters, Hispanic voters, and African American voters. And particularly with young voters, who by the way, swung the election in 2020. It was young voters in those battleground states that gave Joe Biden the victory in 2020 and they know they're not doing well with them and that's where they've got to do better.

• 41:19Speaker 07

  I don't understand it. Maybe you could say this, you live in Washington. He could amass a group of surrogates, younger, fresher looking surrogates, not, not just Pete Buttigieg, but there's guys on Wall Street that would advocate for him. There's guys in unions that would advocate for him. Why don't they put a College of Cardinal like group of younger, energetic surrogates out on the hustings on television to promote this agenda? I'm not exactly sure why they're not doing that. Why do you think they won't do that?

• 41:51Speaker 06

  Yeah, this is something that Democratic strategists that I've been speaking to for the last few months are confused by in the Biden campaign because it's a pretty easy, it's hard to persuade people the economy is doing well when their grocery bills are high and their rent is very high. But you can flood the zone on television with all of these younger surrogates. And actually Pete Buttigieg, who's the Transportation Secretary, does get out there quite a lot.

• 42:17Speaker 07

  He does a good job.

• 42:18Speaker 06

  And he, and he goes on Fox News. He goes out and he talks to Republicans and, and more conservative voters as well. I mean, maybe we'll start seeing them do that, but that is why they want this debate. They want people to wake up to the election and they they still hope that the theory of their case is still steady as it goes, that once people wake up to the election, once people are aware that it's a choice between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, once they see Donald Trump out there in public, they will, in the words of the Biden campaign, come home to the Democratic Party. I think these young voters are an issue because if RFK stays in the race, and you've got

• 42:59Speaker 06

  something interesting thoughts on that, but if RFK stays in the race, if this is an election where people are just angry and pissed and want change, they're not going to stay with the candidate who represents the status quo. They may not like Donald Trump, they may not vote for Donald Trump, but they may stay home or they may vote for Kennedy.

• 43:18Speaker 07

  Again, is the world changed? And so I submit to you that the world has, but the old world, you would have gone to an RFK, okay? RFK's uncle, John F. Kennedy, went to Lyndon Johnson. RFK's father and Jack Kennedy hated Lyndon Johnson, but they knew he could carry the state of Texas and bring them to the presidency. Old world stuff. Donald Trump could go to Nikki Haley or RFK Junior right now, make them the vice president, and he will gap the polls. But because of the narcissism, because we're living in the new world, he may not do that. Okay, now, I'll say one other thing. Have you seen the movie Eight Mile? Do you remember the movie of Eminem?

• 44:02Speaker 06

  No.

• 44:03Speaker 07

  Okay, so there's a scene in this, this is for young listeners, okay? There's a scene where they're they're going to have a rap-off. And so what you do in a rap-off is you dredge each other, you say really nasty things about each other. But Eminem starts the rap-off by rapping every bad possible thing you can think of of him. And he checkmates the other rapper, because now the other rapper is like, wait a minute, he's saying all the bad things, all the bad things, you know? Like, oh, hey, I know I'm short, big deal, right? Joe Biden is not doing that. He should be saying, hey, I'm old as dirt. And I probably need a cane, but I don't feel like it's good for my image to have one, but old and experience and soberness matter. I don't understand why he's not doing

• 44:47Speaker 07

  that. Am I still bullish on a Biden win? The answer is yes. This is a get out the vote election. These candidates have been known to the American public for five decades each. Everybody knows him. This is not the Barack Obama introduction tour of 2008, and everybody knows them. And the well-oiled machine of Joe Biden with extra dough, more field offices in the swing states, is going to be pulling their voters to the polls. And I think they will beat them. It'll be narrow, but I do think the president will win.

• 45:20Speaker 06

  I think young voters voted in record numbers in 2020. They think Joe Biden is very old. They don't like American policy in the Middle East. And without young voters, it's going to be hard for Joe Biden to win those key battleground states that we mentioned earlier.

• 45:39Speaker 07

  So Trump's gonna win, Catty?

• 45:40Speaker 06

  I'm not gonna put my money anywhere, because I think anyone who tells you right now they know who's gonna win this election doesn't know what they're talking about. It is that tight.

• 45:49Speaker 07

  This is why I love you. I'm on Wall Street. I gotta make bets like this. Okay, so I got my money on Biden. Okay, and he may lose, that's fine, because I've lost a lot of trades in my life. But I got my money on Biden. I'm gonna stick my neck out for Uncle, Grand, Great Grandpa Joe.

• 46:04Speaker 06

  In which case, those polls better start turning around for you pretty soon, Anthony.

• 46:08Speaker 07

  Tell us before we leave, the mermaid in the back, is that something you put in the chat, or?

• 46:12Speaker 06

  So I am staying in a friend's rather lovely Spanish-style house in Los Angeles, and it happens to have mermaids around the place. California can give you everything. It's the land of opportunity. Fifth biggest economy in the world, they've got mermaids too.

• 46:25Speaker 07

  Well, I have mermaid envy as we end this podcast.

• 46:29Speaker 06

  We're gonna leave it there, and that's all we have time for this week. Thanks for listening to The Rest Is Politics US. We'll be back next week.

• 46:35Speaker 07

  See you guys next week.

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