Annie Jacobsen on Nuclear War, Intelligence Operations, and Conspiracy Realities

Annie Jacobsen has a favorite word for America's nuclear doctrine: madness. It's madness that any single person has six minutes to decide the fate of civilization, madness that we've built weapons capable of ending the world in 72 minutes, and madness that everything hangs by the thread of deterrence. But to Tyler, life is "a lot of different kinds of madness," and the real question is simply getting the least harmful form available to us. It's a conversation sparked by her latest book Nuclear War: A Scenario, which Tyler calls one of his favorites from last year—and which is compelling enough that Denis Villeneuve is turning it into a screenplay. Tyler and Annie explore whether we should be more afraid of nuclear weapons or if fear itself raises the risks, who should advise presidents during the six-minute decision window, whether moving toward disarmament makes us safer or more vulnerable, what Thomas Schelling really meant about nuclear war and rational actors, the probability that America would retaliate after a nuclear attack, the chances of intercepting a single incoming ICBM, why missile defense systems can't replicate Israel's Iron Dome success, how Pakistan-India nuclear tensions could escalate, why she's surprised domestic drone attacks haven't happened yet, her reporting on JFK assassination mysteries and deathbed phone calls, her views on UFOs and the dark human experiments at Area 51, what motivates intelligence community operators, her encounters with Uri Geller and CIA psychic research, what she's working on next, and more. Read a full transcript https://conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/annie-jacobsen/ enhanced with helpful links, or watch the full video https://youtu.be/WVriGQQR8es on the new dedicated Conversations with Tyler channel. Recorded May 19th, 2025. Help keep the show ad free by donating https://mercatus.donorsupport.co/page/podcastgift?utm_source=cwt+podcast&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=shownotes today! Other ways to connect Follow us on X https://twitter.com/cowenconvos and Instagram https://www.instagram.com/cowenconvos/?hl=en Follow Tyler https://twitter.com/tylercowen on X Follow Annie https://x.com/AnnieJacobsen on X Sign up for our newsletter https://mercatus.tfaforms.net/5060931 Join our Discord https://discord.gg/JAVWP7vTxt Email us: [email protected] mailto:[email protected] Learn more about Conversations with Tyler and other Mercatus Center podcasts here https://www.mercatus.org/podcasts.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:04Tyler Cowen?

  Conversations with Tyler is produced by the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, bridging the gap between academic ideas and real-world problems. Learn more at mercatus.org. For a full transcript of every conversation, enhanced with helpful links, visit conversationswithtyler.com.

• 0:26Tyler Cowen?

  Hello, everyone, and welcome back to Conversations with Tyler. Today, I'm chatting with Annie Jacobsen. Annie started off by studying at Princeton. She now has, I think, eight books. Most recently and prominently is a favorite of mine. It's called Nuclear War: A Scenario, was one of my favorite books of last year. The book is also being turned into a screenplay and will be directed by the Dune director, Denis Villeneuve. Annie also has co-written three episodes of Tom Clancy's Jack Ryan TV series for Amazon Studios. Annie, welcome.

• 1:02Speaker 01

  Thank you so much for having me.

• 1:05Tyler Cowen?

  Now, your last book, of course, it focuses on nuclear weapons and nuclear war. Would it actually help if we were more afraid of nuclear weapons and thinking about them more often? Or does that just not help at all?

• 1:17Speaker 01

  I think it certainly helps, and you probably gathered that from reading my book. I mean, what I wanted to do, sometimes people say, "Why did you write such a terrifying book?" And the answer is very simple. I wanted to demonstrate in appalling detail just how horrific nuclear war would be, as a way, perhaps, for people to have precisely the kind of conversation that you and I are having.

• 1:42Tyler Cowen?

  But say, when I was a kid, people thought about nuclear weapons much more. It seemed more dangerous. It actually seemed more thinkable then. If we're just obsessed with nuclear weapons and nuclear war, can't that raise the risks by making it psychologically more salient?

• 1:58Speaker 01

  I would say certainly not. And also, you know, what we perceive and what we think about is not necessarily what happens. I doubt many people imagined a pandemic was going to show up and shut down the whole world as it did. So I do think it's valuable to think about things, not in any kind of hypochondriacal way, if that is an exact word, but more about people asking, why is it that I focus on subject A rather than subject B? And maybe even one more degree of that is like, what do I want to think about and what is important to me?

• 2:35Tyler Cowen?

  If I think about the experts in the immediate post-World War II period, you know, there's von Neumann, there's Hermann Kahn, it seems they got most things wrong. So maybe they thought there'd be another nuclear, another world war, a nuclear war quite soon, or they might have favored a first strike on the Soviet Union. We almost did a first strike against China. Isn't that an example of how expertise can just lead us to go badly wrong? And this more common sense approach, maybe we had it with Ronald Reagan, we actually do better with that?

• 3:05Speaker 01

  Oh, boy. I mean, it depends how you define expert, I suppose. I think of wisdom more than I think of air quotes, expertise. I've met a lot of experts in my day, and I've met many people whose wisdom outperforms, again, just in my opinion, their expertise, which doesn't mean you don't throw out the opinions of the so-called experts, but no one has a crystal ball and can predict anything. Boy, we could have such an interesting discussion about all of these sort of Cold War thinkers from Hermann Kahn on down. And you yourself were, if I'm not mistaken, a student of the fascinating Thomas Schelling. So, you know,

• 3:50Speaker 01

  you, you, you have like a front row seat with the, the experts. I think my career has been such that I have a front row seats with the, the, the ground operators, if you will, the people, maybe even you could say, doing the dirty work.

• 4:06Tyler Cowen?

  Well, let's put aside the Trump administration, which some people would say is anomalous. Say we have a more typical president and there's a six-minute decision window when deciding whether or not to launch. Yourself aside, but who is it that you want advising the president?

• 4:21Speaker 01

  Well, this is the heart of the matter. I don't want anyone to have to make a decision in six minutes, would you? And we get that from Ronald Reagan himself, one of the rare presidents who spoke about this six-minute window on the record in his memoir. I quote him in Nuclear Wars, a scenario where he says, "This is an irrational concept," which it is, "that any person, let alone one single man, the President of the United States, would make a decision, which we now know from war games would essentially end civilization." And that is, you know, America launching a counterattack. And so you can't really, I don't think you can say, "Who would you want?"

• 5:04Speaker 01

  I think more the question is, "Why would you want?"

• 5:07Tyler Cowen?

  Let me give you a two-part response to that. The first part, even if one agrees with you completely, in the meantime, we do have the system, right? It won't be gone tomorrow. So you get to choose the advisor. You don't want it to be Kanye West, right? So who is it you want?

• 5:24Speaker 01

  I can't, I can't not laugh at that. I mean, that is funny, and it's not what I expected from you, so bravo.

• 5:35Tyler Cowen?

  You didn't expect me to be funny, or you didn't expect that I like Kanye West?

• 5:40Speaker 01

  I just didn't expect the fantastic pop culture reference when we are talking about, like, you know, the possible end of the world. You know, I think that I'm gonna really insist on saying, no human should have that power or have to make that decision, which is why, even though it's a conundrum, a puzzle, you know, a Gordian knot, if you will, the, sure, nuclear weapons aren't going away tomorrow, but the movement toward disarmament makes us all safer. And if that begins tomorrow or later today, the chances of the six-minute window arising reduces drastically.

• 6:28Tyler Cowen?

  But as we move toward disarmament, don't either we or some other countries in that process lose second-strike capability? And that makes the situation more dangerous? Like, I'm very glad Israel has second-strike capability now, and they didn't a few decades ago.

• 6:44Speaker 01

  Yes, yes, and no, no. So, we could drill down on second-strike and what that means, and we could talk about the submarines, the handmaidens of the apocalypse, as they were referred to when I was interviewing the commander of the nuclear submarine forces and others. I think, and let me just make sure I'm not docking the question, you're saying, are you saying, don't more nuclear weapons make us safe? I'm gonna, that's a question to-

• 7:14Tyler Cowen?

  I'm raising the question.

• 7:16Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 7:17Tyler Cowen?

  It's not obvious to me that fewer of them make us safer. Let's put it that way.

• 7:20Speaker 01

  Okay. Well, then-

• 7:22Tyler Cowen?

  We did have World War II without nuclear weapons, right?

• 7:25Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 7:26Tyler Cowen?

  And we've had relative peace since then.

• 7:28Speaker 01

  Yes, but if you read nuclear war closely, as I know it sounds like you did, you perhaps, well, if you're me, because I wrote it, you come to the conclusion that this is madness. This is insane. You know what? All right, if I may, I'm gonna take this moment to quote your former professor.

• 7:54Tyler Cowen?

  Sure.

• 7:55Speaker 01

  Okay? And I quote him in the notes of my book, and this is perhaps the only regret I have in the entire book, that I didn't, that I put this quote from Schelling in the, in the notes, rather than in the text, okay? And it goes like this. And maybe we can, maybe it's more interesting for your listeners if we sort of drill down on this than the big platitudes of, you know, do weapons make us, more nuclear weapons make us more safe? So, it goes like this. And this was Schelling in an interview with WGBH Radio in 1986, in Boston. And he says, "The problem with applying game theory to nuclear war is that nuclear war,

• 8:36Speaker 01

  by its very nature, does not involve rational men. It can't. What sane person would be willing to kill hundreds of millions of people, ruin the earth, and end modern civilization in order to make somebody called the enemy-

• 8:56Speaker 01

  Doesn't win first.

• 8:58Tyler Cowen?

  But Schelling did favor nuclear weapons. That was his dark sense of humor, I would say.

• 9:03Speaker 01

  I would. You think what I just read was his sense of humor?

• 9:07Tyler Cowen?

  Absolutely.

• 9:08Speaker 01

  I believe it was a man in his elder years coming to the conclusion that nuclear war is insane, which is the fundamental premise that I make in the book.

• 9:21Tyler Cowen?

  Yes, it is insane, but it might be the better insanity of the ones available to us.

• 9:27Speaker 01

  Yes, well, he had his, from my take, he, like so many others that I have interviewed, because for some reason, you know, call it fate and circumstance, I have spent my career interviewing men in their 80s and 90s, who are defense officials who spent their entire life making war or preventing war. And I watched them share with me their reflections in that third act of their life, which are decidedly different, in their own words, than those that they would have made as a younger man. I find that fascinating, and that's my takeaway from the Schelling quote, that he came to terms with the fact that intellectualizing game theory,

• 10:11Speaker 01

  like a von Neumann who never got to his old age, is madness.

• 10:16Tyler Cowen?

  But say that Russia or China, by mistake, did a full-scale launch toward the United States, and they couldn't call the things back. And we're in that six-minute window, or whatever it would be with hypersonics. What do you think is the probability that we would do a full-scale launch back?

• 10:34Speaker 01

  I think the probability is certain, and that is based on all the interviews that I conducted with individuals who literally had the power to make sure that happened. I mean, do you disagree?

• 10:45Tyler Cowen?

  But those are interviews. Well, I don't know. I don't think it's P equals 1. It might be about 50%, but there's some chance that in the actual heat of the moment, with everything at stake, and speaking to an outsider, someone who's investigating, such as yourself, you don't want to say, I'm not going to do my job. But in fact, I don't know, I would put the probability at 60% that they launch back, 70%?

• 11:12Speaker 01

  Okay, so then if you follow through that thinking, which is, which I get it as an intellectual exercise, then you're saying it's great. We have so many nuclear weapons because if by accident China launches against us, then, you know, at least we'll show morality, or at least you're saying a 60% chance of showing morality in the final moments, all of America will die and all the Chinese will live, which would be exactly the premise for many of the individuals who are for more nuclear weapons in the first place.

• 11:44Tyler Cowen?

  I would say a 60 to 70% chance that we retaliate, not that we do nothing, but a decent chance we do nothing. Like, who, you know, who understands really what goes on in a president's mind? Because it is up to the president, as you point out repeatedly.

• 11:59Speaker 01

  Yes, no, okay. And I mean, again, we're, we're sort of intellectualizing here, but doesn't what you are suggesting really underscore this idea that all nuclear weapons are, that this is madness to even have these arsenals that are capable of such things? Now, remember, I am not a peace activist. I am not, I am not, you know, advocating for, that's not my job. My job is as a national security reporter to tell you the story of what would happen, what could happen in nuclear war, a scenario, not nuclear war, the only scenario.

• 12:37Speaker 01

  But the takeaway, I believe, is that more nuclear weapons make us less safe. And I think you might be saying the same thing.

• 12:49Tyler Cowen?

  The word madness doesn't have much force with me. My life is a lot of different kinds of madness. I've heard people say marriage is madness. A lot of social conventions seem to me to be madness. The question is getting the least harmful form of madness out there. And then I'm not convinced that those who wish to disarm have really made their case, or certainly saying nuclear war is madness doesn't persuade me. If anything, if enough people think it's madness, we won't get it and it's fine to have the nuclear weapons.

• 13:20Speaker 01

  Which is precisely the fundamental, I think, you know, underpinning of deterrence. So there's no question that, and of course, your shelling, you know, schooling is sneaking through here because this is exactly that idea. And again, this is a puzzle because, you know, deterrence will hold, deterrence will hold, deterrence will hold. That is what the Defense Department says time and time again. But if you look deep enough, as I did, you find number two, it's Stratcom saying, if it doesn't hold, it all unravels. And so we can talk about madness, what is madness, is marriage madness. Certainly, nuclear war unfolding, unraveling, the unraveling of deterrence is madness.

• 14:05Speaker 01

  It's madness because it ends civilization for what, for why?

• 14:11Tyler Cowen?

  But keep in mind, the alternative to nuclear weapons, it's not sticks and stones or pistols. It could be biological weapons, chemical weapons, many other nasty things. It could be AI as a kind of weapon. So maybe the logic of mutual deterrence, we can't escape. We can choose in which physical form we want to manifest it. We have more experience with nuclear weapons, and that sense, they may be safer, right? It's been since 1945 that we've worked with them in some way. Should we trade that all in for mutual assured destruction with biological weapons? I don't see the case for doing that.

• 14:47Speaker 01

  Different lane, biological weapons, I would argue, and we can talk about that. But I think what you've hit upon would be exactly another scary point when you talk about we, the royal we, have had these systems and deterrence has held for 75 years since the Russians got the bomb in 1949. Very good point. And you could say that the likelihood of a US-Russian full-scale nuclear exchange on purpose is therefore lessened because deterrence has held between these two superpowers.

• 15:25Speaker 01

  One must imagine, assume, choose your word, that Putin is schooled in deterrence. He knows, even though he's changed his policy recently, we can get into the fine points. But, and so we agree in this point that the danger lies in the newcomers to the field that do not have decades of precedent, that did not grow up watching and fearing, like your point in the very opening of our discussion. And that is why in nuclear war scenario, I chose the mad king scenario, which is North Korea launching, because this

• 16:06Speaker 01

  is a very new and formidable foe, if you will, a nuclear armed superpower with rogue tendencies.

• 16:15Tyler Cowen?

  And they're not ruled by a committee, right? I think of committees as more conservative on average than individuals.

• 16:21Speaker 01

  Well, yes. And that brings us back to the six minute window that you have to believe, although, I mean, you know, one of the most shocking things for me in reporting the book was learning from at least two former secretaries of defense, Bill Perry and Leon Panetta, that in their opinion, most US presidents are not well learned about nuclear weapons, about their role in nuclear war, because it's kind of assumed that deterrence will hold. Now, perhaps that is changing. But you could say that this idea of having grown up with this concept would help in the decision making process. But to your point, and to

• 17:01Speaker 01

  my point, I think, in the book, when you have North Korea, where you have like a myopic lane of vision and, you know, one hardly can imagine anyone giving the leader of North Korea advice that is something he might not want to hear. And so then you have a real problem of, talk about sole authority.

• 17:22Tyler Cowen?

  Let's say a single rebellious, crazy North Korean general launched a nuclear missile toward Washington DC, and it was on its way. But there's only one. What do you think is the probability we would be able to intercept it?

• 17:38Speaker 01

  And did you say, I just wanted to make sure I caught you, did you say a North Korean individual?

• 17:43Tyler Cowen?

  North Korean.

• 17:44Speaker 01

  Yeah, okay. Which is the premise in my book.

• 17:45Tyler Cowen?

  That it has more range than maybe today. It can make it to Washington. It's coming in. We get the alert. We think it's a missile. What's the actual chance we can blow it up and stop it?

• 17:56Speaker 01

  Well, just a couple of technical points to drill down on. North Korea does have missiles that can reach the east coast of the United States presently. And that is the precise scenario I choose in my book because it was actually Richard Garwin who told me that was what he was most afraid of. And he is perhaps, you know, he died last week at 97, the most knowledgeable person on the technical and the theoretical aspects of this, having looked at it since the 50s and advised presidents since the 50s. Can, so now you're asking about can our interceptor program shoot down that incoming one single missile? And that is a problem that the Missile Defense Agency faces. And I write about it specifically.

• 18:41Speaker 01

  And the, my answer would be no, right? So there is technically a 50% chance of one interceptor missile on the US side being able to shoot down one interceptor, one incoming ICBM. But you have to remember those statistics are from a curated test. It's a test that, just for listeners, which is like Vandenberg Air Force Base says, oh, we're doing, you know, whispers to the powers that be that they're doing a test and they know it's coming. And 50% of the time, less than 50% of the time, actually, it succeeds.

• 19:16Tyler Cowen?

  But you can't have all your probabilities at one or zero. Like, what's your probability? I'd say 20%, but what's your number?

• 19:24Speaker 01

  You know, I think, you mean, what, what is my, what is my mathematical equation for what?

• 19:31Tyler Cowen?

  Yeah, the betting odds. We are indifferent between taking the bet or not. I'll say 20% that we nail it.

• 19:39Speaker 01

  You know, to my eye, it either, it's either all or nothing. And again, I'm not a mathematician. I'm a, I'm an author and a journalist, but it's all or nothing. And in the scenario I write, it's nothing. We do not hit it with four missiles. I ran that by several former. NORAD commanders, and they did not say any not true. So they, their odds are unfortunately even for look, with the look, shoot, look technology that we have on our interceptor systems, would not be capable of shooting down a warhead. Let's give listeners some specs, just so that they can understand. This is not ju, you know, that you can visualize this, because that's what helped me.

• 20:21Speaker 01

  The warhead coming in is traveling at about 14,000 miles an hour, 500 to 700 miles above the earth. And the interceptor is trying to shoot it down with essentially like a kinetic, like a giant bowling ball, at 20,000 miles an hour, 500 to 700 miles of the, above the earth. So the technology involved is exquisite, and it fails time and time again. And that, to me, the poetics of that are more important than, you know, to try and use a defense that we should have more interest, because that leads to, well, let's just have,

• 21:06Speaker 01

  you know, as many interceptor missiles as the other guys have nuclear weapons. Then you're talking about bankrupting the United States.

• 21:13Tyler Cowen?

  But Israel has done a great job. They don't stop literally everything, but it's quite impressive. I know it's a smaller country, but it can be done along some margins, right?

• 21:22Speaker 01

  Absolutely not. Wrong science. The Iron Dome you're referring to shoots down short range and some medium range, including ballistic missiles. They come from either land-based systems, like the THAAD system, or they come from sea ships, the AEGIS system. But they cannot shoot down ICBMs, intercontinental ballistic missiles, traveling, as I just mentioned, 500 miles above the earth's surface. That is an extraordinary distinction, and people incorrectly mix them.

• 22:02Speaker 01

  Because it sounds great and it's quite fantasy hopeful to think, you know, wow, I can just build, you know, a, a, a system, an iron dome or a golden dome over the United States over my head and I will be free from nuclear attack. Now, because I have brought the golden dome up, I also must say, you know, having interviewed Charles Townes, for example, who was the Nobel laureate who invented the laser and speak, spoke to him a decade ago about whether or not a kind of iron dome type system could work. And he said unequivocally, no. Now we are in a different field of technology that is above my access because I don't have a top secret clearance. And when you're talking about CubeSats and you're talking about space

• 22:47Speaker 01

  based interception, none of us that are not inside that golden dome, you know, rubric of, that's happening right now, know what's happening. So we don't know about the future, but the past tells us that the iron dome is a different situation.

• 23:05Tyler Cowen?

  But surely if we spent 5% of GDP, we could come up with something. It wouldn't be perfect, but it could protect Washington and New York. Right? If nuclear war is so unthinkable, so crazy, so destructive, so possible, then we ought to spend that 5% of GDP.

• 23:23Speaker 01

  I mean, you are welcome, you know, listen, it's a land of ideas here. It is a land of ideas and that, if that is yours.

• 23:31Tyler Cowen?

  But it's not my idea. It's a question, right? Like you're the one saying it's so terrible and it's, you know, not so impossible. So you ought to be the one charging ahead with this idea.

• 23:43Speaker 01

  Charging ahead with which idea that I would spend?

• 23:45Tyler Cowen?

  Spending 5% of GDP to construct whatever defensive system we need. 5% of GDP is a lot, right? It's very noticeable. Taxes go up, spending goes up, interest rates go up. We did it with the Manhattan Project. That was a pretty decent sized chunk of GDP. And that seemed impossible, right? This is something we probably could do. Maybe it's only 4% of GDP.

• 24:07Speaker 01

  Well, I mean, seeing as I'm not an advisor on the Defense Science Board, I would no sooner suggest or even put my brain to, to think about such things. Because fundamentally, that is not what the solution is. I would see, the only solution I have seen in any of this, if I may, shall I tell you a short story?

• 24:28Tyler Cowen?

  Sure.

• 24:30Speaker 01

  Reagan, a nuclear hawk, takes office and absolutely believes that more nuclear weapons make us more safe. And not only that, comes up with the original idea of space-based defense, kind of like what you had alluded to with the 5% GDP. This is back in the 80s. And this is his position. And then one night, ABC Television releases a movie called The Day After, and Reagan decides to watch it. His chief of staff says, sir, don't watch it, but he does anyways. And he writes in his White House Journal that he became greatly depressed,

• 25:09Speaker 01

  his word, depressed. And as a result, he reached out to the then arch enemy, the USSR. He reached out to Gorbachev, that led to Rekovich, and the two of them together took the world from the dangerous precipice of 70,000 nuclear warheads in 1986, 70,000, you heard me correctly, to the approximately 12,300 that we have today. And that is because disarmament, and that is because of communication. Reagan realized that he could no longer treat the nuclear armed Russia as the enemy that you want to kill, enemies you

• 25:52Speaker 01

  kill in Defense Department. They had to be an adversary. He had to work with them. And that, Tyler, is what, that is the only mental pathway, theoretical pathway, I can see as a viable solution to this madness. And I own that word. It's madness.

• 26:13Tyler Cowen?

  But he did start with the big arms buildup, right? And higher defense spending, and he called them the evil empire. So he was hardly a nuclear pacifist. He thought you need to be strong first, and then you can get the other party to disarm partly. But you know, 12,000 weapons is still enough to create the scenario in your book. I don't really feel safer now.

• 26:35Speaker 01

  Well, no, but their intention was to go, their intention was to disarm. I mean, and okay, you don't have to go to nuclear zero, people can have, but their descent, their, their intention was to continue and that, that didn't happen. And one note on Reagan, lest anybody get upset with themselves and think, oh no, I thought the Iron Dome could save us or the, you know, lest anyone be sort of feel badly for not being aware of nuclear weapons. Let me quote Ronald Reagan himself didn't even know the capacity, the capability of sub-launched ballistic missiles. In a press conference, he once said incorrectly that sub-launched ballistic missiles could be recalled. They can't.

• 27:18Speaker 01

  And I think this speaks to the world in which there is so much misinformation about what could happen, what these weapon systems do. And it's really something I tried to demonstrate in my book that no, you can't win. You cannot win.

• 27:37Tyler Cowen?

  As you well know, there was a recent conflict between Pakistan and India. They're both nuclear armed states. For the moment, it's died down. Pakistan, of course, has inferior conventional forces, a smaller and poorer country. Say Pakistan, out of desperation, had launched some nuclear weapons. What happens next? What is the United States do? Do we just sit there and watch? Do we threaten? Do we tell India, hey, don't retaliate or we'll zap you? Do we threaten Pakistan? Do we preemptive on Pakistan? What, what's your scenario?

• 28:09Speaker 01

  You just got yourself a new book. There's your scenario.

• 28:14Tyler Cowen?

  But you've thought about this, right? You, you read the news and you go, well, you know, in my, in your scenario, what happens?

• 28:20Speaker 01

  In my scenario, I, and we're literally talking about the book I wrote, I make something painfully clear. And again, this is from sources. This is from Defense Department officials. This is from your former professor's war game, Proud Prophet.

• 28:40Speaker 01

  And what we know from Proud Prophet is that no matter how nuclear war begins, whether NATO's, and I'm talking about the United States here, and I'll get to Pakistan, India, no matter how nuclear war begins, whether NATO's involved, not involved, China's involved, not involved, no matter how nuclear war begins, if the United States is involved, it ends in total annihilation, in Armageddon. We know, we know that from the declassification.

• 29:07Tyler Cowen?

  But those people have been wrong about so many things. They were wrong about Joe Biden not being senile, right?

• 29:14Speaker 01

  Well, I'm talking about nuclear war.

• 29:17Tyler Cowen?

  India would retaliate and take out equivalent parts of Pakistan, and then China would twist Pakistan's arm, and we and Russia would twist India's arm. And I think that would be the end of it. It would be terrible. Millions of people would die, but I don't think it would escalate beyond that. Is that wrong?

• 29:34Speaker 01

  Well, what I just said was what I am aware of and have, and wrote the book about is what happens if the United States gets involved. So I would have to really put my mind on that scenario to discern what the outcome would be. I don't know necessarily if America would get involved. It doesn't seem to me that there would be a reason. Now, what I am familiar with is understanding the effects of, let's say, a 200 weapon exchange, nuclear weapons exchange between those two nuclear armed countries, and what would happen to the soot that would loft into the atmosphere and block out the sun,

• 30:17Speaker 01

  impacting all of us. So that's a different conversation.

• 30:21Tyler Cowen?

  But that's why we would get involved. It's one reason of many, right?

• 30:24Speaker 01

  Which, what, what would be the reason?

• 30:26Tyler Cowen?

  Not wanting that to happen. The second and third order effect of nuclear weapons would mean the US and China and Russia would call up the two parties and read them the riot act. And I think we actually would get it under some kind of partial control.

• 30:40Speaker 01

  And I believe that would, well, witness what we just saw would happen prior to the first launch.

• 30:48Tyler Cowen?

  Sure, but you can have an angry rebellious general. He controls a few nukes. He sends them toward Delhi. These things can happen, as you point out, right?

• 30:55Speaker 01

  Yes. Well, I don't point that out in my book, but yes, I would. I would agree with you that you, you know, such things could happen. But very specifically, in nuclear war scenario, I don't get involved with geopolitics. Tyler, I take readers from nuclear launch to nuclear winter, and it happens in 72 minutes. And that's because the former commander of STRATCOM, General Keeler, when I asked him what would happen in a full-scale nuclear exchange between Russia and the United States, he said to me, Annie, the world could end in the next couple of hours. And that is my focus when I think about and talk about nuclear war.

• 31:41Tyler Cowen?

  But there are scenarios that last longer than 72 minutes, and presumably you've thought about those, right?

• 31:47Speaker 01

  Well, that's obviously going to be your next book. I just said that.

• 31:51Tyler Cowen?

  But I can ask you about things you've thought about, but are not in your book.

• 31:56Speaker 01

  Well, OK, so are you asking me, did I think about writing a different scenario?

• 32:01Tyler Cowen?

  No, I'm asking you just a question about a scenario that's not in your book, but you must have thought about, where there's a limited exchange and then uncertainty hanging in the air and something happens other than complete escalation.

• 32:17Speaker 01

  Many people have written books about what they believe could be the lead up to various nuclear war scenarios. That's not my book.

• 32:28Tyler Cowen?

  Are you surprised there have been no real drone attacks in the domestic United States yet?

• 32:33Speaker 01

  Wow. You know, I said, I was on a podcast with a former CIA officer, and I said that I was waiting for that to happen and got a little bit of pushback. So obviously, that has been my position for a while. I think that that is, I'm actually surprised that we haven't seen that.

• 32:54Tyler Cowen?

  And do you think we'll need to develop defenses against that? Which would cost a lot. There's a lot of targets, right? We're a big country.

• 33:03Speaker 01

  You know, I'm interested and worried about memetics in that kind of a situation.

• 33:11Speaker 01

  That you don't have something like that happen. But if you did, it would suddenly involve mimicry. And I think that is shocking and dangerous and terrifying. But again, I haven't put my, there's another book for you.

• 33:26Tyler Cowen?

  To ask about your work more generally, how many conspiracy theories do you think you believe in? A lot, a few, zero?

• 33:34Speaker 01

  And maybe you have to define conspiracy theory for me.

• 33:38Tyler Cowen?

  Well, if you think a group of people in the US government, say, the CIA plotted to kill Kennedy, that would be a conspiracy theory. If you think Jeffrey Epstein did not really commit suicide, that would be a conspiracy theory. If you think there are aliens hidden at Roswell, that would be a conspiracy theory. Maybe the definition has gray areas, but there's plenty of cases where you can point to it and say, yeah, that would be a conspiracy theory. I would say I believe in a very small number of them. But how many do you think you believe in?

• 34:09Speaker 01

  Tell me which ones you believe in.

• 34:11Tyler Cowen?

  I think the COVID vaccine was held up by the pharma companies to help Biden's chances of winning the election. I used to be 50/50 on single gunman for Kennedy. Now I think it was a single gunman with the new document dump. I think there's more cheating related to sports betting than people think. That's a kind of weak conspiracy theory. And that's about my whole list. I don't think there are many more. I do think Epstein killed himself. Even Dan Bongino said so recently.

• 34:43Speaker 01

  I'm so interested in the way people think and their belief systems. I spend so much time interviewing people at the very center of these issues, which you would call like conspiracies. I mean, I suppose I have a different definition of it per se. Like, I'll just give you an example, so I'm specific and not vague. Is when I was writing Area 51, I interviewed the first director of the CIA's Department of Science and Technology. His name was Dr. Bud Willan. And he had his finger on everything that you might call a conspiracy, meaning, you know, he was in the basement with Dulles, he was one of the five people that was brought

• 35:25Speaker 01

  down there after JFK was killed. Dr. Wealan was the originator of the Corona Satellite Program. Science and Technology was just coming online at CIA in the 60s when he was there. He was also the mayor of 51, Area 51, by his own definition. And so I report on, you know, actual stories of, based on interviews of high-ranking officials about the landscape around what you have suggested is conspiracy, like that people love to think

• 36:01Speaker 01

  about JFK, aliens, and I put those in quotes on the record for people to contemplate. So, you know, Operation Paperclip, another case in point, so many, what you would call conspiracies around that. I tend to be someone who doesn't, I wouldn't, I think sometimes when you say conspira-, that's a conspiracy theory, it sounds so finger pointing to me.

• 36:28Tyler Cowen?

  I don't mean it in a negative way. There's plenty of other countries that have a lot of conspiracies, right?

• 36:33Speaker 01

  Yeah, maybe you just asked me specifically, like, and then I could answer earnestly what I think about, about a certain subject, because I have written about all of those subjects.

• 36:43Tyler Cowen?

  Well, say the Kennedy assassination.

• 36:46Speaker 01

  Okay, I don't have any information on Kennedy that isn't already in the public domain, that one can either say, okay, that's actually what I would call a legitimate source, or that's actually, I'm not sure I believe that individual, right? So, you know, but I do know, I do have a feeling that Dr. Wealan was someone who knew, because famously, you may or may not know this, but after Kennedy was killed, Allen Dulles, then Director of CIA, took five directors of the directorates down into the basement, they were all there for a number of hours. And when they came up, they were, you know, witnesses said they were sort of pale-faced. So whatever they learned was something shocking. And when I

• 37:30Speaker 01

  was interviewing Dr. Wealan for Area 51, my handler, when you interview these kind of former CIA guys, you have, I call them a handler, they're called like a liaison. This person said to me, you may not talk to, you know, Dr. Wealon will answer all your questions about 51, about the spy planes, about the Corona satellites and whatnot, but you may not ask him about JFK. So of course, obviously, I wanted to ask him about JFK, but I didn't because I was focusing on my Area 51 book. Flash forward, Dr. Wealon said a very interesting thing to me when we finished up our interviews. He said, "You may call me anytime that you like before the book publishes. I will give you, I will check quotes, I'll..." You know, gave me this long list of being very helpful.

• 38:13Speaker 01

  He said, "But once the book publishes, you and I will never speak." It's very CIA to say such a thing, you know? And that was that. Sure enough, book publishers never hear from him. Flash forward one year or so. My phone rings. I can't find my phone. I find it and it says, "Missed call, Dr. Bud Wealon." I said to my husband, "Oh, my God. What is..." You know, he said, "He's going to tell you who killed JFK. Call him back." I call him back. A woman answers the phone and says, "Annie, it was a missed call." And I said, "I'm sure he wanted to get in touch with me. He died a few days later."

• 38:52Speaker 01

  It's a long-winded, forgive the long-winded story, but I think it speaks to why these hidden mysteries are interpreted as conspiracies because people know things that for whatever reason they cannot say. And my takeaway was that Dr. Wealon was going to tell me something. That's why he called me on his deathbed. Pure speculation on my part.

• 39:16Tyler Cowen?

  What's your view on UAPs, formerly called UFOs?

• 39:21Speaker 01

  That is a three-hour Joe Rogan podcast, Tyler, I'm afraid. You know? I mean, the short version is I report in Area 51 that they were not UAPs, that they were something else, a terrible, you know, human experiment program. But, you know, that really is a longer conversation because it's so dark, so ugly and deeply controversial. But I have no reason to believe that it, that, you know, off-planet extraterrestrial...

• 39:50Speaker 01

  Beings or intelligence have have come to the to the United States or anywhere on Earth, and I have interviewed almost all of those players involved because they have crossed into some of my other books. And a lot of what I don't report it because it's not an area that I want to spend a lot of time proving or disproving. I think it's falls into the category of people's beliefs.

• 40:19Tyler Cowen?

  But if there's no actual thing that happened, what makes it so dark and ugly?

• 40:25Speaker 01

  If there's no act, oh, there is an actual thing that happened.

• 40:27Tyler Cowen?

  Well, there's no alien bodies, right? There's, in your view, no alien craft. UFOs are not alien spacecraft. Why is it dark and ugly?

• 40:37Speaker 01

  Because one of my sources, the sort of primary mover and shaker in that whole world that everyone knows, and I, he told me that it was a human experiment program and that he was involved in it. And you have to read the whole Area 51 book to kind of swallow that. That was the position he maintained until he died.

• 40:57Tyler Cowen?

  Do you think people are overly inclined to believe in conspiracy theories? Just as we used to attribute the weather to gods, right? We anthropomorphize many things. It's easier to think in terms of the people we don't like as plotting against us rather than things being a series of accidents. So I think we overly resort to conspiracy theorizing. Do you agree or disagree?

• 41:21Speaker 01

  I disagree with the nomenclature because I think of a conspiracy in legal terms. It's like two or more people plotting something. And so that is a, that is a word that exists in my brain in that lane. The other lane that you're talking about to me is beliefs. And if you really wanted to get flowery with your language, you could say crazy beliefs, or you could say, you know, you could, you could, you could attach any kind of poetic word to it, which I would, because it seems to me to fall more into the category of desire.

• 41:57Tyler Cowen?

  Of all the parts of government you've had contact with, which do you think is the best run?

• 42:02Speaker 01

  Hmm. Wow, that's a good question. Well, as you know, from all of my books, I report on the Pentagon, so the military and the intelligence community. And, and many people

• 42:18Speaker 01

  Do not realize that there are 17 or 18 intelligence agencies in the United States of America. The CIA is just one of them. I've written about a number of them. Most, you know, some of them, like NRO, for example, are extraordinarily classified. So I can't, you know, what's the best run? They're run differently. I mean, the mindset of the Pentagon is fascinating to me in terms of order and systematic control. The mindset of the central intelligence agency is fascinating to me in terms of what I perceive to be individual action.

• 43:00Speaker 01

  So they almost are diametrically posed in that regard, that when you're at the Pentagon, you are following the system. And often, not always, but often, and I've interviewed many more CIA operators than analysts. So people who are out there, you know, on the ground. And it seems to be about individual course of action. So, you know, which is better? I think you need both, certainly in our own human lives. I want to be, I want to have order and discipline and kind of work from a system, whether it's, you know, in my professional life or my family life, my community, but I also want to have

• 43:44Speaker 01

  individuality and make decisions. So in a, in a strange way, I think that the intelligence community and the military community work hand and glove. Are they perfect? Of course not. Am I perfect? Of course not.

• 43:57Tyler Cowen?

  I think of the Pentagon as being one of the worst run and parts of the deep state as being relatively well-run. That's my personal impression. You differ from that?

• 44:06Speaker 01

  Interesting. Well, and when you say deep state, you mean the intelligence community?

• 44:09Tyler Cowen?

  Yes, especially the consultants who are attached and the way in which they really bring very high intelligence and analytic powers to bear on questions. It may not survive the passage of a memo to the presidency, but still, I think they're quite on the ball.

• 44:25Speaker 01

  Well, we probably agree in that regards that if it if discipline and system is important, and again, I'm just using myself like a like a personal example, right? A personal example, then but what you really want to lead with is your own character and your own decisions. So I would probably agree with you, but you know, the government is such a I'm also fascinated that most people just think the government is one whole thing. And as you and I both know, from looking at these, it's that couldn't be further from the truth.

• 44:58Tyler Cowen?

  The people you've worked with who are part of the secret or semi secret deep state. So overall, what do you think they're like as people or what motivates them? Or what have you observed? What has occurred to you?

• 45:08Speaker 01

  I'm fascinated that you that you that you call them the deep state. I mean, again, that's like loaded nomenclature. It's like right there with conspiracy.

• 45:17Tyler Cowen?

  No, I'm fine with deep state.

• 45:18Speaker 01

  Right?

• 45:19Tyler Cowen?

  It's been, you know, it's this negative thing, but a lot of these words get inverted.

• 45:23Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 45:24Tyler Cowen?

  Let's just call them the deep state. I don't mind.

• 45:25Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 45:26Tyler Cowen?

  Some of it's bad, but some of it's good.

• 45:28Speaker 01

  I mean, listen, I've spent time with people who who others view as

• 45:37Speaker 01

  everything from a twirling mustache bad guy to a savior. So again, and I'm not dodging the question here. I'm trying to be earnest in like my my reportage, like how I work with people. And that has to do with the fact that I try to be agnostic.

• 45:59Speaker 01

  Going into interviews as I would wish one would be with me, meaning not because because if you're going to prejudge someone based on what you air quotes read, that is or heard on a podcast, that is dangerous.

• 46:14Tyler Cowen?

  Yeah, but I want your post judgment, right?

• 46:16Speaker 01

  Okay, so right again, but be specific, like tell me, tell me.

• 46:20Tyler Cowen?

  The people you've met from the deep state, what's your overall impression? Some mix of what they're like, what motivates them, what surprised you? Any impressions you've had about them as people?

• 46:29Speaker 01

  When you say deep state, do you mean specifically intelligence community?

• 46:33Tyler Cowen?

  Absolutely.

• 46:33Speaker 01

  Okay, so you mean people who former operators for the CIA that I worked with?

• 46:38Tyler Cowen?

  Former, current, whatever you've met, yeah.

• 46:41Speaker 01

  What is, I'm trying to wrap my head around the actual question so I can answer it well.

• 46:46Tyler Cowen?

  What are they like? What struck you?

• 46:48Speaker 01

  Everybody's different. I mean, I don't think, I don't think you could put people into a box. I couldn't. I mean, I am, I am astonished. And, you know, look, one of the things about being a reporter is that you allegedly are objective. And I think the past 10 years have shown us that that is actually not true, but yet you should strive to be. And so when I'm reporting books, I try, I aim to be objective so that I can, that I can gather agnostic details and then, and come to a conclusion. But then sometimes afterwards, having spent a lot of

• 47:30Speaker 01

  time with a person, then I, they might even become a friend. The book's out and I'm, you know. And so that is maybe where you really get, I would get to know someone even better. I mean, who's coming to mind is Billy Waugh, who, you know, became a friend of mine after I reported, he was the main character in my book about the CIA's paramilitary called Surprise, Kill, Vanish. And Billy was extremely complicated. And after the book published and we became friends, he shared with me a lot of things that, that were deeply personal, that are not to be on the public record, but made me realize, and you're going to

• 48:15Speaker 01

  say this is a cliche, but I'm going to say it anyways, we are all so much more alike than we are different.

• 48:21Tyler Cowen?

  Well, that would be my answer, in fact. So I don't mind if it's a cliche. I would agree with you. I think they're more analytic than other individuals I meet, on average, just as you might say, well, the Swiss are more orderly, but they're not that different deep down.

• 48:35Speaker 01

  And incredibly.

• 48:38Speaker 01

  My husband's Norwegian and the Norwegian word is coming to mind, flink, like clever, okay, like really clever. And always operating on, you know, 10 frequencies. I mean, I went to Vietnam with Billy Wa, to Hanoi, when he was 87 and a half years old. And I'm telling you, the things that hap-- I mean, you know, we could do a three hour podcast on some of the things that occurred that made me say, how does an 87 year old, how is he firing on so many circuits all at once? But he was, because he was trained that way. And he was always used to having someone on his tail trying to kill him.

• 49:23Tyler Cowen?

  What did you think when you met Uri Geller, which you relate in one of your books?

• 49:27Speaker 01

  Uri was fascinating. I mean, Uri is another person. Talk about beliefs.

• 49:34Speaker 01

  I met with Uri at his home in London, or outside London, and I traveled to Israel to meet with Uri there. And what comes to mind is Uri, the person who I spent time with, and again, this was now nine years ago or something, was most certainly different than the public persona that he pushes forth. And I believe that in my book, Phenomena, I capture the person, not the pretense. But a lot of people, and I think Uri among them,

• 50:15Speaker 01

  become, become a person, you know, become like a, a figure. And then they work to hold up that figure.

• 50:25Tyler Cowen?

  If ESP is true work and work, why isn't it relatively easy to show that in the laboratory?

• 50:34Speaker 01

  Well, I believe the takeaway from my book on that subject is that it's a fleeting technique, and it definitely, to my eye, falls into the sort of, you know, basket of belief. I saw things, as I report, that were inexplicable. You know, you couldn't really explain them by logic or science. But you can't repeat that behavior, and so it's not science. And so I don't think you can, I don't think you can, air quotes, use it. And I think that's what the CIA spent a long time trying to prove. And I think

• 51:15Speaker 01

  the Defense Department made the mistake of believing that perhaps you could use it.

• 51:22Tyler Cowen?

  To what extent do government bodies still use self-proclaimed psychics?

• 51:27Speaker 01

  Currently?

• 51:28Tyler Cowen?

  Currently, yeah.

• 51:30Speaker 01

  Oh, I don't know. I don't know. But I'm almost certain that that program is still continuing.

• 51:38Tyler Cowen?

  And you see on TV shows, local sheriffs, a young girl disappears, they bring in a psychic. Does that happen in real life, or it's only on TV?

• 51:46Speaker 01

  I think we all know examples of that happening in real life, which is why the polls, you know, now, although now we know you can't even trust polls anymore. But, you know, many polls suggest that an extraordinary majority of Americans believe in psychic functioning. It's why they will, on occasion, air quotes, you know, go see a psychic, or because everybody has a story of so-and-so said this, and then it happened. Again, a great way for me to think about belief and desire. Wouldn't it be amazing if there was a magical force that was guiding us? I think that's why people believe in psychic functioning.

• 52:31Speaker 01

  And maybe the placebo effect is true. Interestingly, placebo is, of course, a concept originated by a CIA doctor named Henry Beecher.

• 52:43Tyler Cowen?

  Do you believe in ESP?

• 52:46Speaker 01

  Do I believe in extrasensory perception?

• 52:49Tyler Cowen?

  Yes.

• 52:53Speaker 01

  Individuals have told me things that, wow, oh my god, that person said that to me, and that came true. Is that extrasensory perception? I'll leave you to decide.

• 53:04Tyler Cowen?

  Well, I'll say it's random, that a lot of things happen that are coincidences. So I don't believe in it.

• 53:09Speaker 01

  Of course.

• 53:09Tyler Cowen?

  But are you willing to say the same?

• 53:10Speaker 01

  Of course. I think I believe more in, someone said it to me this way, you know, the red rambler theory?

• 53:15Tyler Cowen?

  No.

• 53:16Speaker 01

  Okay, neither did I. And I said, well, what's the red rambler theory? And they said, okay, now watch, now that I've said the red rambler theory, you will end up seeing a red rambler, a car, one of those cars from the 70s or 80s, drive by. So that is that idea that, like you just shared, that once something is in your consciousness, the chances of you seeing it are much greater. Is that ESP? It's the red rambler theory.

• 53:42Tyler Cowen?

  I would say confirmation bias, but I don't believe in ESP, do I? What is it you read, say, in science fiction, or detective novels, or genre fiction, that has influenced you?

• 53:56Speaker 01

  You know, I read, I love reading, I love reading. And I was doing an interview recently, and in Europe, and someone asked me, or rather stated, that my book, Nuclear War Scenario, was clearly influenced by John Hershey's Hiroshima, and Cormac McCarthy's The Road. And I thought, what, absolutely. Both of those books I have read more than once, each of those books. And so I think I'm the kind of author and reporter that just reads, reads, reads, reads, reads, reads, and then things quibble up in your subconscious and become manifest.

• 54:37Tyler Cowen?

  And what is it, in your formative years, do you think led you to take interest in the topics you've written books about?

• 54:44Speaker 01

  When I was a young girl.

• 54:45Tyler Cowen?

  Well, teenager, young woman, whatever it was, yes.

• 54:50Speaker 01

  That is a mystery to me. We'll have to leave that to the psychics, you know? I mean, really and truly, because I don't have a military family. My, my training was not in war. I would most definitely say it was kind of fate and circumstance. I really believe in that, you know, just like, what's the expression? Maybe it's Bob Dylan, "Ride the horse in the direction it's moving." I just began writing about war and weapons and national security and secrets as a younger reporter, and it just took off from there. These subjects are absolutely life and death dramatic, and they make me feel like I want to keep writing.

• 55:33Tyler Cowen?

  What's your favorite novel?

• 55:36Speaker 01

  Hmm.

• 55:39Speaker 01

  God, that's... What's your favorite novel?

• 55:42Tyler Cowen?

  Moby Dick or Bleak House, if I had to say. Yeah.

• 55:46Speaker 01

  Ah, I'm not going to say one.

• 55:49Tyler Cowen?

  Favorite movie?

• 55:51Speaker 01

  Gladiator.

• 55:53Tyler Cowen?

  Best movie about nuclear war?

• 55:57Speaker 01

  Hopefully Denis Villeneuve's Nuclear War: A Scenario forthcoming.

• 56:02Tyler Cowen?

  Any idea when it's coming out?

• 56:04Speaker 01

  I don't know. These things are so... They're like the CIA. They're secret and hidden.

• 56:10Tyler Cowen?

  That's right. I like the old, not well-known movie Miracle Mile, which is about a pending nuclear holocaust and a couple in LA that fall in love with each other.

• 56:18Speaker 01

  Wow, I don't know that one. Miracle Mile?

• 56:21Tyler Cowen?

  It's from, I think, the late 1980s. It's a fun movie.

• 56:24Speaker 01

  Great. Great recommendation. Thank you.

• 56:27Tyler Cowen?

  Last question. What will you do next?

• 56:31Speaker 01

  I have a new book due on August 1.

• 56:35Tyler Cowen?

  Are you allowed to tell us what it is?

• 56:37Speaker 01

  No, that I take a page out of the CIA's playbook. Secret until revealed, so.

• 56:42Tyler Cowen?

  So it's not on Amazon yet?

• 56:44Speaker 01

  No, it's not. It's my manuscript is due August 1.

• 56:48Tyler Cowen?

  Oh, I see. So it's not coming out August 1. But it's more or less, it's close to finished then?

• 56:53Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah. And, you know, it is, shall we say, same cookie sheet.

• 56:58Tyler Cowen?

  Great. Awesome. Annie Jacobsen, it's been a real pleasure chatting. Thank you very much.

• 57:04Speaker 01

  Thank you so much.

• 57:08Tyler Cowen?

  Thanks for listening to Conversations with Tyler. You can subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast app. If you like this podcast, please consider giving us a rating and leaving a review. This helps other listeners find the show. On Twitter, I'm @TylerCowan and the show is @CowanConvos. Until next time, please keep listening and learning.