Our Final 2026 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win, and Who Should Win

We’re getting close to the finish line! On today’s show, Sean and Amanda give their official picks for the 98th Academy Awards. Before diving in, they react to the new trailer for Steven Spielberg’s upcoming blockbuster, ‘Disclosure Day,’ starring Josh O’Connor and Emily Blunt (2:11). Then, they discuss what their expectations are for the Oscars broadcast (9:36) and break down who they think will win, and should win every award (19:12). Hosts: Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins Producers: Jack Sanders Production Support: Lucas Cavanagh Talk to a State Farm agent today to learn how you can choose to bundle and save with the Personal Price Plan®️. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there®️. Drivers wanted. Learn more at vw.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Speaker 00

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• 1:46Sean Fennessey?

  I'm Sean Fennessey.

• 1:47Amanda Dobbins?

  I'm Amanda Dobbins.

• 1:48Sean Fennessey?

  And this is The Big Picture, a conversation show about our final Oscar predictions. Today on the show, we are going through all 24 races to make our predictions of who will win and who should win at the 98th Academy Awards. Are you ready, Amanda? Have you made your picks?

• 2:03Amanda Dobbins?

  I'm done. I'm locked in. I just made my final decision and wrote it into the doc right now.

• 2:08Sean Fennessey?

  What if I convince you to change your pick?

• 2:10Amanda Dobbins?

  As I was saying to Jack before we started recording, I'm not that impressionable.

• 2:15Sean Fennessey?

  We'll see about that. Programming note, on Sunday night, we will see you before the Academy Awards, live on Instagram at 3:00 PM PT, 6:00 PM ET, where we will talk about these predictions, the red carpet, last minute thoughts, a lot more. It'll be a lot of fun. I encourage you to stay tuned. We are planning something funny. And then immediately after the telecast, we are coming to you live on Netflix to break down all the awards. That's live on Netflix, right after the Academy Awards. We will be there for you. Also, I'll be at the South by Southwest Film Festival, interviewing Steven Spielberg on Friday.

• 2:47Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah, very normal week for you.

• 2:50Sean Fennessey?

  I'm doing my best. I'm hanging in there.

• 2:52Amanda Dobbins?

  I really need the airlines to keep it together, which I would hope I didn't jinx it. This is not wood. Find some real wood. Knock on it for all of us.

• 3:00Sean Fennessey?

  Maybe I should just run to Austin and run back. That's probably the safest bet, but I will be there. I'm excited for the keynote, excited to talk to Steven. Come say hi if you see me in Austin. Speaking of Spielberg, we got a new look at Disclosure Day, which we'll break down right after this.

• 3:14Sean Fennessey?

  This episode of The Big Picture is presented by State Farm. Sure, being an expert at movie trivia is impressive. You know what's even more impressive? Being smart about saving money. And a great way to do that is by saving when you choose to bundle home and auto with the State Farm Personal Price Plan. Bundling, just another way to save with the Personal Price Plan. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts and savings, and eligibility vary by state.

• 3:41Sean Fennessey?

  Okay, Amanda.

• 3:41Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 3:42Sean Fennessey?

  I've seen the new Disclosure Day trailer. You have not.

• 3:44Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 3:44Sean Fennessey?

  You are abstaining from further info.

• 3:47Amanda Dobbins?

  With all respect to your close, personal friend, Steven Spielberg, which, listen, by the way, before we get to the trailer, I just, it's an amazing picture.

• 3:56Sean Fennessey?

  Oh, yeah.

• 3:57Amanda Dobbins?

  Really genuinely very good, flattering of both of you. It's just like printed out, put it on a Christmas card.

• 4:04Sean Fennessey?

  It was, it was, yes, I met Steven before our conversation. We had, we hung out for a little bit and it was, it was a nice time. Could you tell I was very happy?

• 4:12Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah, but that's, I'm saying it, you know, it captured a moment. It was lovely. It really, we could make a big picture Christmas card, you know?

• 4:19Sean Fennessey?

  Well, yeah, but we gotta get you in there.

• 4:21Amanda Dobbins?

  No, it would be fine. You just, it's the two of you. And it's like, I'm the parent and you just sign it. You know, happy holidays from Sean, Amanda and Steven.

• 4:29Sean Fennessey?

  Sure.

• 4:30Amanda Dobbins?

  And then on the back, you're like, 2026 was a big year for the big picture. We went live on Netflix. We got to go to Cannes. We found our third chair in Steven Spielberg.

• 4:42Sean Fennessey?

  Well, let's not get ahead of ourselves. But so you're, you're not, you're.

• 4:45Amanda Dobbins?

  So with all respect to Steven Spielberg, with to Disclosure Day, to the vital theatrical experience, to Michael Moses and everyone at Universal who are like working very hard.

• 4:56Sean Fennessey?

  Yes.

• 4:56Amanda Dobbins?

  I know enough. I don't want to know anymore. Show me the movie.

• 4:59Sean Fennessey?

  Okay. I did watch it. You're gonna have to hear me talk about it momentarily.

• 5:02Amanda Dobbins?

  Are you gonna spoil it?

• 5:03Sean Fennessey?

  I, in a way, yeah.

• 5:04Amanda Dobbins?

  Are you gonna? Okay.

• 5:06Sean Fennessey?

  I'm, I'm just gonna float some, what's, what, some additional things that have been shared with us in this trailer and how that's interesting to me and how I'm, why I'm so hopeful about this movie. One, I think before all we really understood was that this was an event movie of some kind that almost certainly involved alien life forms, right? We heard the clicking sound coming out of Emily Blunt's mouth. We got this sense that Josh O'Connor had some information. The trailer reveals that O'Connor is kind of an Edward Snowden-esque whistleblower figure who has got his arms around some data. He is responsible for collecting that data and analyzing it, it seems like. And now he's gonna let the world know what he knows, which I guess is that aliens are on this planet, maybe.

• 5:49Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 5:49Sean Fennessey?

  Um, which is kind of fascinating. And I think the thing that the trailer is showing us now that is that the movie is much more grounded in the real world. There's implications of the Roswell, Area 51 cover up in the trailer. You know, the movie clearly seems to be about governmental distrust, how power operates. The timing of this is incredibly funny, given that we're just like a month removed from Barack Obama accidentally revealing his knowledge of UFOs.

• 6:12Amanda Dobbins?

  I was genuinely about to ask you, is Barack Obama doing like guerrilla marketing for Disclosure Day?

• 6:19Sean Fennessey?

  I don't think that's the case, but it was a wonderful moment for this movie because, you know, there is this sense in our culture, and the movie is clearly tapping into that, that we're not being told everything. And the movie is using crop circles and alien flying through the clouds that may or may not be, or an alien ship, I should say, that may or may not be a UFO or UPA as they're known, or UAP as they're known now. You know, even that, like, that.

• 6:43Amanda Dobbins?

  Is their own, what is, what does that mean? UAP, unidentified?

• 6:48Sean Fennessey?

  Aviary, aviatory, some, some, something like that. You can look it up while we're, while I'm riffing here.

• 6:55Sean Fennessey?

  The movie is clearly giving us a little bit of Invasion of the Body Snatchers 2. And I think there's a sense that Emily Blunt's character, something is happening to her. But she doesn't realize, not that she's an alien, but that something has overtaken her.

• 7:06Amanda Dobbins?

  Right.

• 7:06Sean Fennessey?

  And those images that we saw in the first trailer of, that seems sort of like, almost like Hallmark CGI of like the glowing home and the elk entering the house and the bird, that those appear more to be like memories of her childhood and not like a

• 7:22Amanda Dobbins?

  Real.

• 7:22Sean Fennessey?

  linear sequence in the events of the film.

• 7:24Amanda Dobbins?

  So that there's a reason that they sort of look like that.

• 7:26Sean Fennessey?

  Yes. That's, again, this is speculation based on a two and a half minute trailer.

• 7:30Amanda Dobbins?

  One thing I've learned in my life, never doubt Steven Spielberg.

• 7:33Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah, same. There's one really cool thing in this trailer.

• 7:37Amanda Dobbins?

  The third chair of the Big Picture Podcast.

• 7:39Sean Fennessey?

  Your boy Colin Firth is in this movie.

• 7:41Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 7:42Sean Fennessey?

  He plays, he appears to be some combination of Pete Hegseth and Elon Musk. I'm not going to say anything else beyond that, but he uses, I'm just going to say, bio-virtual technology to appear in Eve Houston's home and control her body. And it's a very fascinating sequence and feels like kind of classical Spielberg, where it's kind of very unnerving, you're on the edge of your seat observing what they've created. And it's spooky. Like, it's very effective. And I think it indicates that, like, is there some sort of tech world slash governmental mass conspiracy going on? Coleman Domingo, I think, is going to be the sort of like key conspiracy drum banger.

• 8:26Sean Fennessey?

  You know, the guy who's like, hey, everybody, please, we need to know the truth. That's pretty much all I got. And I'm feeling excited. The movie is obviously operating in a Close Encounters but 50 Years Later context. And

• 8:39Amanda Dobbins?

  That's cool and exciting and, you know.

• 8:41Sean Fennessey?

  Full circle.

• 8:42Amanda Dobbins?

  Fun, exactly. And fun to delve in with Spielberg.

• 8:44Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah, yeah. Even in talking with Steven this week, like, Thinking about the arc of his relationship to this genre is something that I think we'll spend some time on when we talk on Friday. And, you know, those movies just kind of shaped

• 8:58Amanda Dobbins?

  Absolutely.

• 8:58Sean Fennessey?

  my taste and the genres that I'm into and how I think about the world.

• 9:02Amanda Dobbins?

  And American, if not global filmmaking for the past 30 years?

• 9:07Sean Fennessey?

  Yes. And I think also, it's so fun. I mean, you know, I'm spoiling a conversation I haven't had yet, but like in 1977, Close Encounters is one of the more optimistic looks at this time, which is also concurring alongside, you know, the Alan Pacula movies. And now I feel like as time has gone by, Spielberg is becoming more suspicious.

• 9:25Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 9:25Sean Fennessey?

  of how the world works, less optimistic.

• 9:28Amanda Dobbins?

  Right.

• 9:28Sean Fennessey?

  Less open minded.

• 9:29Amanda Dobbins?

  And you can really track it over time, shifting around 2000 or so.

• 9:34Sean Fennessey?

  I think that's exactly right. This century has been very much about some unease with how power operates. So very excited for this movie. And very excited for Friday. Okay.

• 9:44Amanda Dobbins?

  Are we able to, when, when will we be able, those of us not in Austin, when will we be able to consume that conversation? Will we be able to?

• 9:51Sean Fennessey?

  Yes, on this feed.

• 9:52Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 9:53Sean Fennessey?

  I don't know when that's gonna be.

• 9:54Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 9:54Sean Fennessey?

  Hopefully soon. We're working on it. Jack, when's that gonna be?

• 9:58Speaker 05

  Uh.

• 9:59Sean Fennessey?

  Don't spoil it.

• 10:00Speaker 05

  Okay.

• 10:02Amanda Dobbins?

  I just wanted to make sure that for everyone who can't be in Austin, I've gotten some emails being like, hey, saw you're gonna be in Austin. I will not be in Austin.

• 10:11Sean Fennessey?

  Do you wish you were?

• 10:12Amanda Dobbins?

  Um, I, listen, I had a great time the time that we went. I am really concerned about your turnaround time and Jack's turnaround time. And I'm just imagining the two of you in a van, like driving from Austin to like all the way back to Los Angeles overnight. Is it even, would you be able to make it like time wise?

• 10:31Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah.

• 10:31Amanda Dobbins?

  Is it less than 48 hours, that drive?

• 10:33Sean Fennessey?

  I don't know.

• 10:34Speaker 05

  Yeah, less than 48, I think so.

• 10:36Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 10:36Speaker 05

  I'm not worried. I've, I've never been more locked in in my entire life.

• 10:39Amanda Dobbins?

  And then we're filming it. And then that's our first big picture documentary, which is the two of you in a bus, trying to make it back for Oscars night.

• 10:45Sean Fennessey?

  Well, I can't speak for Jack, but assuming that I can get this cleared by TSA, I will be bringing my Mandalorian jet pack with me as a carry on. And so I'll just, I'll fly back if I have to. Jack, we can't, we can't count on him. But there are people who can help out back here in the office in case you don't make it, right, Jack?

• 10:59Speaker 05

  Absolutely.

• 11:00Sean Fennessey?

  Okay. The, the Academy Awards are happening on Sunday.

• 11:03Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah, that's why I need you back.

• 11:04Sean Fennessey?

  That's why you'll be back. Yeah. I'll, I'll be back. It'll be fine. Expectations for the show. Simple opening question. Do you think this will be a good show?

• 11:12Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 11:13Sean Fennessey?

  Okay.

• 11:13Amanda Dobbins?

  I do. Here's what we know. Limited. First of all, here's the most important thing. Conan O'Brien, who hosted last year, is returning and is a wonderful host. We are acolytes.

• 11:24Sean Fennessey?

  Conan fans.

• 11:25Amanda Dobbins?

  Of Conan. We grew up watching. I like the vibe. It's a good combination of safe paper hands, old, like, skilled television presenter and, you know, throwing like a fun elbow in here and there, but never in a mean way, just in sort of a sharp, smart way. So I'm looking forward to that. We know that there will be two original song performances and two only.

• 11:51Sean Fennessey?

  Yes, the two good ones.

• 11:52Amanda Dobbins?

  The two good ones and the two good ones that have broader appeal. Golden is gonna get its moment. Everyone in my house is really excited for that. My 18-month-old son can say Golden now.

• 12:06Sean Fennessey?

  Wow.

• 12:06Amanda Dobbins?

  So, and he, and he requested in the car, "Up, up, up." So it's really, we're late.

• 12:11Sean Fennessey?

  Okay.

• 12:11Amanda Dobbins?

  But I, I think a lot of people and a lot of younger people would tune in for that.

• 12:15Sean Fennessey?

  I agree. It's gotta come in the first 90 minutes of the telecast.

• 12:18Amanda Dobbins?

  And I also, like, I don't know if it'll be in the same tone as I'm just Ken, but it does seem like one of those moments where you can use the spectacle of the show to, to bring some energy.

• 12:30Sean Fennessey?

  Do you think it will open the show? I feel like that's possible.

• 12:33Amanda Dobbins?

  Hmm, it could.

• 12:34Sean Fennessey?

  Because if you think about the theme, the, the theme of the song.

• 12:37Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 12:37Sean Fennessey?

  And the lyrics of the song and the idea of like announcing.

• 12:40Amanda Dobbins?

  We're going up, up, up. It's our moment.

• 12:42Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah. I just, it feels, it feels like a good. It feels like a good opening moment for the show. Not unlike when, remember when Justin Timberlake sang "The Troll Song" at the beginning of the telecast like five years ago, which sounds ridiculous, but that was actually a good way to open the show. It gave us a lot of energy. He was a famous person right up top.

• 12:58Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 12:58Sean Fennessey?

  Um, I do think they need to kick off like that.

• 13:00Amanda Dobbins?

  Sure. I, I think that the performance of Golden will be superior to Justin Timberlake, uh, doing "The Troll Song."

• 13:07Sean Fennessey?

  I hope so.

• 13:07Amanda Dobbins?

  What's, what's that song called? Is, is Anna Kendrick?

• 13:10Sean Fennessey?

  It's called "Let It Be." Um.

• 13:14Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay, that was funny. Oh my God, think about.

• 13:17Sean Fennessey?

  Can't Stop the Feeling.

• 13:18Amanda Dobbins?

  Can't, oh, it's so annoying. I can hear it right now. Ah, um. Every once in a while, after I'm listening to like, good kids' music, Spotify algorithm tries to give me that song. And it's a hard no for me. My children will not learn about that.

• 13:34Sean Fennessey?

  We've created an incredible demarcation line around trolls. No trolls content has come into our home. It's not, I'm not a fan.

• 13:42Amanda Dobbins?

  I think that's great.

• 13:42Sean Fennessey?

  One of the weirdest episodes we've ever done was when me, you and Rob Harvilla talked about the trolls movie during COVID. I have completely forgotten everything.

• 13:48Amanda Dobbins?

  Oh, yeah, which was like about optimism?

• 13:50Sean Fennessey?

  It was. It was Trolls 2.

• 13:52Amanda Dobbins?

  Uh huh.

• 13:52Sean Fennessey?

  That was Trolls World Tour.

• 13:54Amanda Dobbins?

  Which is another, it's one of the trolls jurors. Hard, just very hard for me to say. I also learned that Marlboro is hard for me to say.

• 14:02Sean Fennessey?

  Marlboro?

• 14:02Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes, because a woman came into my Pilates class in a Marlboro Reds sweatshirt. And I was like, this is sick.

• 14:09Sean Fennessey?

  It's really funny, because I think of you as a, as a gal, a young gal, who like, really went to finishing school, you know?

• 14:16Amanda Dobbins?

  Thank you, yeah.

• 14:17Sean Fennessey?

  And, but for whatever reason, there's some consonants that are a struggle.

• 14:21Amanda Dobbins?

  I'm an American.

• 14:22Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah.

• 14:23Amanda Dobbins?

  And-

• 14:23Sean Fennessey?

  But elocution, that's my skill.

• 14:24Amanda Dobbins?

  The Rs are very challenging for me. And like, across languages.

• 14:29Sean Fennessey?

  Interesting.

• 14:29Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah, I don't know.

• 14:30Sean Fennessey?

  Maybe that's why you went French and not Spanish. The rolling R would be a challenge.

• 14:34Amanda Dobbins?

  I can like, I can roll it, but like, the French, like, the, you know, it's really tough. That's good. That'll be our thumbnail.

• 14:41Sean Fennessey?

  That was disgusting.

• 14:42Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah, well, listen.

• 14:45Sean Fennessey?

  Back to the show. I think it's possible that Golden could open the show.

• 14:49Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 14:49Sean Fennessey?

  I lied to you feels like a big centerpiece in the middle of the show.

• 14:52Amanda Dobbins?

  And Miles Keaton will be performing.

• 14:54Sean Fennessey?

  Yes, he will. Along with many other, I think Brittany Howard will be a part of that as well. Sounds like Jamie Lawson will be on stage during that as well. So I think it'll be a pretty fun.

• 15:02Amanda Dobbins?

  Is Misty Copeland confirmed?

• 15:04Sean Fennessey?

  She is confirmed.

• 15:05Amanda Dobbins?

  Which is-

• 15:05Sean Fennessey?

  The ballerina.

• 15:06Amanda Dobbins?

  An amazing subtweet, because in addition to Misty Copeland just being one of the most celebrated American ballerinas, she was also one of the first people to pose in a Marty Supreme jacket.

• 15:19Sean Fennessey?

  Wow, interesting.

• 15:20Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 15:21Sean Fennessey?

  And didn't she used to date F1 driver?

• 15:26Sean Fennessey?

  Who's the most famous F1 driver in the world?

• 15:27Amanda Dobbins?

  Lewis Hamilton.

• 15:28Sean Fennessey?

  Lewis Hamilton, thank you. Did they date?

• 15:29Amanda Dobbins?

  I don't know about that.

• 15:30Sean Fennessey?

  Okay.

• 15:31Amanda Dobbins?

  Who, Lewis Hamilton is quote unquote dating or not dating? It just seems a little based on like, who needs photo ops?

• 15:39Sean Fennessey?

  I just mean Misty has a unique relationship to a lot of the Best Picture nominees this year.

• 15:43Amanda Dobbins?

  I.

• 15:43Sean Fennessey?

  Because Lewis Hamilton is a producer of F1.

• 15:45Amanda Dobbins?

  I have Googled Misty Copeland, Lewis Hamilton, and I'm not finding any results.

• 15:49Sean Fennessey?

  Okay, I misspoke then.

• 15:51Amanda Dobbins?

  But you know what Misty Copeland has done? Be amazing at ballet.

• 15:54Sean Fennessey?

  Got it. Uh, I'm excited to see her.

• 15:57Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 15:57Sean Fennessey?

  Presumably she's not like playing the banjo. She's gonna dance during that performance.

• 16:01Amanda Dobbins?

  I would hope.

• 16:02Sean Fennessey?

  And then during the commercial break, right after that, I will be performing Train Dreams from the film Train Dreams. So we'll go live on IG with that, right, Jack? That'll be good? 100%. Okay, cool. Um, other things we should expect, you know, I was on Bill Simmons's podcast this week talking about the show, the telecast. We talked a bit about the in memoriam.

• 16:20Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 16:20Sean Fennessey?

  A long time fascination of his, and we talked about what they might do. And he pitched an interesting idea, which I hope they do, which is, you know, we had speculated that there might be an entire moment dedicated to Robert Redford because we know Barbra Streisand is gonna perform presumably.

• 16:34Amanda Dobbins?

  We heard, yeah.

• 16:35Sean Fennessey?

  Memory, we heard. It's been, it was reported, it was speculated with some knowledge.

• 16:39Amanda Dobbins?

  Right.

• 16:40Sean Fennessey?

  But he said maybe there should be four or five individual breakout moments for Robert Redford, Diane Keaton, Robert Duvall, Gene Hackman, Rob Ryan. We have a number of very venerated veterans of Hollywood who passed away in the last 12 months. I think that'd be cool.

• 16:55Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 16:55Sean Fennessey?

  I think that'd be appropriate.

• 16:57Amanda Dobbins?

  The number of people who have been, who are connected to those individuals who have been reported to be coming back to the Oscars suggests that that it would be at least individual moments as opposed to being cramped altogether, just from a time perspective.

• 17:14Sean Fennessey?

  I agree. I would just, I know you don't care, but I would love to see like a real clip reel, like a, like a two and a half minute clip reel for each person that is just like, here is the totality of these people's, all these people who lived into their 70s and 80s, you know, who worked for 50 years. This is what they put on screen.

• 17:29Amanda Dobbins?

  Let's be clear about my feelings about clip reels. I think I don't mind and even enjoy. A well edited montage, which is what you are describing.

• 17:38Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah.

• 17:39Amanda Dobbins?

  What I think is fruitless and often counterproductive are the four second acting bites that show up of people just screaming at their top, at the top of their lungs, contextless before, that's not acting, that's not communicating what these performers did so well. We agree to disagree.

• 17:59Sean Fennessey?

  I just, I have no idea what you're talking about. I think that's insane.

• 18:02Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 18:02Sean Fennessey?

  Um, runtime of the show, how, how long you think we're gonna be?

• 18:07Amanda Dobbins?

  Doing this ourselves a bit because we were trying to figure out when we would go live on YouTube.

• 18:11Sean Fennessey?

  That's right.

• 18:11Amanda Dobbins?

  Um.

• 18:15Amanda Dobbins?

  3:37.

• 18:17Sean Fennessey?

  Last year's telecast was three hours and 50 minutes.

• 18:20Amanda Dobbins?

  Wow.

• 18:21Sean Fennessey?

  Will this be longer? This, you think this will be shorter?

• 18:25Amanda Dobbins?

  Well, how many performances did they do last year?

• 18:27Sean Fennessey?

  I can't, I, I think around the same number.

• 18:29Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah, they've been scaling it back, which is good. Okay.

• 18:32Sean Fennessey?

  So almost four hours for, what I would describe as a slightly more subdued Oscars than this year's will be. I think there's a lot of energy around the race this year. I don't know if the ratings are gonna be higher and I'll ask you about that in a second, but does feel like one battle and Sinners are two very widely seen movies relative to something like a Nora, which dominated last year. So, I don't know, I, I, four hours feels in play.

• 18:54Speaker 05

  But they also added a category too.

• 18:56Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah, it's a good point, Jack, that there's 24 categories to give out.

• 18:59Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay, then we're gonna have to start thinking about like snacks pacing over the course of the night.

• 19:04Sean Fennessey?

  I want to do sugar fish. Can we just do sugar fish?

• 19:07Amanda Dobbins?

  Oh, for dinner? Yeah, absolutely. But then, that, this, this is four hours.

• 19:11Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 19:12Amanda Dobbins?

  And then you gotta keep the, the, the blood sugar up.

• 19:16Sean Fennessey?

  We'll get a mojito going for you, don't worry. Uh, ratings, up or down?

• 19:21Sean Fennessey?

  I think they were slightly down last year. So where do they go this year?

• 19:25Amanda Dobbins?

  I mean, no one's ever gotten richer by predicting that the Oscars ratings would go up, so.

• 19:30Sean Fennessey?

  You're right, but Golden and Sinners.

• 19:34Sean Fennessey?

  Our two big flashing, check this out thing going on.

• 19:38Amanda Dobbins?

  I agree. I mean, I, I think it's going to honestly be.

• 19:42Sean Fennessey?

  Flat?

• 19:42Amanda Dobbins?

  Like, yeah, like a matter of decimal points.

• 19:45Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah. I think you're right. I don't know. It's kind of a quiet time in sports right now. And that's something else I was thinking about. There's not a whole, there's not a big HBO Sunday Night Show at the moment. There's not, it's not competing with really anything right now.

• 19:58Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 19:59Sean Fennessey?

  Especially if the, especially if the USA is eliminated from the World Baseball Classic. Did you see what happened last night in the World Baseball Classic?

• 20:04Amanda Dobbins?

  I did not know that the World Baseball Classic was happening.

• 20:07Sean Fennessey?

  What an absolute fiasco. They lost to Italy eight to six.

• 20:10Speaker 05

  The United States manager believed they had already moved on to the elimination round.

• 20:15Sean Fennessey?

  So there's a suggestion that maybe he set the lineup based on the fact that they thought that they had already advanced. And now based on the outcome, I'm sure the, the outcome of Italy and Mexico will have happened by the time people listen to this. But anyway, just as a baseball fan last night, I was like, what the hell is going on here?

• 20:28Amanda Dobbins?

  Who's on the US team?

• 20:30Sean Fennessey?

  Well, quite a few people.

• 20:31Amanda Dobbins?

  United States.

• 20:32Speaker 05

  Bryce Harper?

• 20:32Sean Fennessey?

  Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, some major stars.

• 20:35Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 20:36Sean Fennessey?

  Neither of whom came through in a big spot last night. Challenging times. Anyway, moving on. Uh, here's an interesting precursor question to our predictions. How many Oscars will sinners win?

• 20:52Amanda Dobbins?

  I have an answer based on my predictions. Do you want me to give that? Or that seems like spoiling it.

• 20:58Sean Fennessey?

  More or less than two?

• 21:00Amanda Dobbins?

  More.

• 21:00Sean Fennessey?

  More or less than three?

• 21:02Amanda Dobbins?

  More.

• 21:03Sean Fennessey?

  Okay. What about, how many Oscars will one battle after another win?

• 21:06Amanda Dobbins?

  I didn't count. But I, but I did sort of in the shower this morning. I, I don't know an exact number.

• 21:12Sean Fennessey?

  More or less than three?

• 21:13Amanda Dobbins?

  More.

• 21:14Sean Fennessey?

  More or less than four?

• 21:15Amanda Dobbins?

  More.

• 21:16Sean Fennessey?

  Intriguing.

• 21:17Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 21:17Sean Fennessey?

  Okay.

• 21:18Amanda Dobbins?

  My, my theory, and maybe this is, you know, a good segue. We were, we were very anxious last night. This is an exciting year, a really cool year. And also for two people who don't like to be wrong in public or private, a vexing year.

• 21:34Sean Fennessey?

  It is.

• 21:35Amanda Dobbins?

  And so we were texting last night at like 9:45 about various categories in which we still hadn't made a decision in, in which we didn't know what to do. And we both shared the sentiment that.

• 21:50Amanda Dobbins?

  It's not adding up in a way that makes sense to us.

• 21:53Sean Fennessey?

  That's right.

• 21:54Amanda Dobbins?

  The aggregate is not aggregating. The balance, as you said, is not balancing. And I think some of that is because we use our long, you know, our decades of Oscar nerdism and what the Academy has done before and how these races usually play out to shape how we make our predictions. And I think in about half the categories, that's useful. And otherwise, I think it's going to be a really different year. And I think a lot of the norms that we expect and a lot even of like the precursors or the bellwethers are wrong or shifting you another way.

• 22:33Sean Fennessey?

  That's it.

• 22:34Amanda Dobbins?

  So I had to make my own peace with what my ballot looks like as a whole. Because at 9:45 last night, when I was like, I really need to start my wind down, which is like an hour of no, you know, I can't be this anxious about it. When I was looking at it, I was like, this doesn't, there's not an internal logic here, according to my internal logic of what the Oscars should be and what a ballot should be and what the quote unquote, "Academy" does. And I had to let it go, you know?

• 23:08Sean Fennessey?

  I admire that. I have, obviously, I think you and I are similarly organized in our mind, but I think the way that I live my life is even more organized. And I'm a spreadsheet person. I'm a presidential person. I'm very rooted in the history of the Oscars. As much the recent history as the distant history. And we're going to talk about the distant history today because of some of the things that could come up based on some of these collisions. And I'm married to an actuary. You know, her father is a math professor. Her sister is a math professor. Like, I'm very interested in this sort of statistics and the data and the history of this, but also that there is feelings involved in this kind of voting. And this year, the war, so to speak, is between...

• 23:53Sean Fennessey?

  Vibes and precedent and what the two trains colliding and they are represented in some ways in two distinct films. I wouldn't say one film is a vibes film and one film is a data film, but just what's gone on in the last six months. And we've been talking about this for a very long time. And I feel justified in how much time we've devoted to this stuff, because it's been interesting this year. For the first time in a while, it's been really, really interesting. I find myself right before the predictions, feeling not very brave. That's what I'll say.

• 24:22Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay. I am the child of two lawyers. So for me precedent is just something that keeps you from having fun all of the time. It is a legal tool to limit the possibility of life. And I do also think that some of what informed my thinking is that in the past few years, as the academy has gotten bigger and more international and just the sheer numbers and the number of people, it moves less like one solid group of people. And in fact, it

• 25:03Amanda Dobbins?

  just has become more chaotic and it's more and more different types of voters and interests and preferences.

• 25:09Sean Fennessey?

  Yes. The homogeneity has been washed out of the academy, at least relative to what it was 15 years ago.

• 25:15Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes. And that's certainly true in terms of race, nationality, gender-ish, age-ish, you know, like they're all of them. I think there are still, it's still predominantly like older white people.

• 25:31Sean Fennessey?

  What, how many, this is a random thing I was thinking about last night. How many Gen Z members of the academy, do you think there are? Zero? A hundred? Just a guess?

• 25:43Amanda Dobbins?

  Hmm. Is Jennifer Lawrence Gen Z? No.

• 25:46Sean Fennessey?

  No.

• 25:47Amanda Dobbins?

  Who are the youngest people? Emma Stone is not Gen Z. Is Rachel Zegler in the academy? Did she get added when she?

• 25:55Sean Fennessey?

  That's a very good question.

• 25:56Amanda Dobbins?

  Rachel Zegler, are you in the academy? Academy member? Let's Google this right now.

• 26:00Sean Fennessey?

  I would guess fewer than 100. And I bring this up for a reason.

• 26:04Amanda Dobbins?

  She's presented, but I don't know whether.

• 26:07Sean Fennessey?

  Probably not, I would guess. You'd be surprised the number of people who have done a lot of work who are not in the academy. In fact, I know a nominee who's not in the academy and he's going to be on the show later this year.

• 26:19Amanda Dobbins?

  Oh, exciting.

• 26:19Sean Fennessey?

  Interesting fact.

• 26:22Sean Fennessey?

  I bring this up because Oscar discourse-

• 26:24Amanda Dobbins?

  Is it Steven Spielberg?

• 26:26Sean Fennessey?

  It's not Steven Spielberg, I assure you. Steven Spielberg, for the record, won the Irving Thalberg Award.

• 26:32Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 26:32Sean Fennessey?

  The honorary award that is not given out every year.

• 26:34Amanda Dobbins?

  Sure.

• 26:35Sean Fennessey?

  In 1987.

• 26:38Sean Fennessey?

  Thirty-nine years ago, he won the honorary Oscar.

• 26:41Amanda Dobbins?

  Before Schindler's List and Jurassic Park.

• 26:43Sean Fennessey?

  Yes, before he won Best Director. That's crazy town. He wasn't even 40. Anyway. Um, I ask this because the discourse is very noisy this year. And there's a lot of discussion about what's actually happening. And it does feel like there is a flood of people who have only been paying attention to the Oscars for, say, 25 years, or 22 years, instead of 50 years.

• 27:04Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 27:04Sean Fennessey?

  And that could be an advantage, or it could be a disadvantage, in terms of what's really happening with the race right now. How much of what's happening is real and how much of it is online?

• 27:13Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 27:13Sean Fennessey?

  We don't know. We don't know. We stand athwart history, saying, "I don't know, but I'm gonna try to make a prediction."

• 27:21Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 27:22Sean Fennessey?

  So let's start.

• 27:23Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 27:23Sean Fennessey?

  Twenty-four categories. We're gonna go through every single one. Figured we'd start with some general individual film categories.

• 27:30Amanda Dobbins?

  It's fun. You've paced this well.

• 27:32Sean Fennessey?

  Thank you. The first category is animated feature film. The nominees are as follows: Arco, LEO, K-Pop Demon Hunters, Little Amolee, or The Character of Rain, and Zootopia 2. Will-win and should-win.

• 27:45Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 27:46Sean Fennessey?

  You can go first, and maybe we'll alternate back and forth.

• 27:48Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay, great. Uh, will-win, uh, K-Pop Demon Hunters. And should-win, and I have now seen all five. And I just wanna let you know that my version of hell is watching Little Amolee, or The Character of Rain, with a four-year-old, who just keeps being like, "Who is that? What is..."

• 28:04Sean Fennessey?

  I told you my story about this. Allison asked a single question.

• 28:07Amanda Dobbins?

  Well, so now, when you rent them, they're both, both Arco and Little Amolee are available to rent, which we did, but, uh, we rented the dubbed versions.

• 28:15Sean Fennessey?

  Oh, I see.

• 28:16Amanda Dobbins?

  Will Ferrell is in the Arco dubbed version. It's like, hey! I mean, many famous people are, but there was a, that was a voice moment. Anyway. No, my son, bless him, fully became Jessie Buckley in Hamlet, um, at the end of, um, but like, being like, "What's going on?" for Little Amolee, and it was a true nightmare.

• 28:35Sean Fennessey?

  Did he watch Arco?

• 28:36Amanda Dobbins?

  No, I, he went to bed, and then I watched it. Um, I think he might have liked it.

• 28:40Sean Fennessey?

  I think it, I think it would play. Allison watched it either.

• 28:42Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah, anyway, should-win, K-Pop Demon Hunters, which, uh- Is dynamite.

• 28:46Sean Fennessey?

  It's a banger. Yeah, we match on that.

• 28:48Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 28:49Sean Fennessey?

  Those were both of my picks as well. It is, I guess, kind of interesting that Zootopia 2 didn't make any kind of late breaking push here because

• 28:56Amanda Dobbins?

  Because it stinks.

• 28:57Sean Fennessey?

  No, I just disagree. And it's also really, it's really liked and it's a huge hit.

• 29:03Amanda Dobbins?

  That's true. Listen, my son wanted to buy the snake bucket. That doesn't mean, that doesn't make it art.

• 29:08Sean Fennessey?

  Was talking about animated movies for the rest of the year and there's not really a Zootopia 2 coming in the fall. There is a Disney original movie called Hext.

• 29:17Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 29:17Sean Fennessey?

  You up on this?

• 29:18Amanda Dobbins?

  No. Is it about witches?

• 29:21Sean Fennessey?

  One assumes.

• 29:22Amanda Dobbins?

  I hope so.

• 29:23Sean Fennessey?

  I don't know. A Disney original in that Thanksgiving slot, though. Interesting. Okay, let's go to international feature film. The nominees are as follows. From Brazil, The Secret Agent. From France, It Was Just An Accident. From Norway, Sentimental Value. From Spain, Serat. And from Tunisia, The Voice Of Hind Rajab. Did you struggle with this one at all?

• 29:41Amanda Dobbins?

  This is one of my highlighted, am I gonna change it last minute? But I'm not.

• 29:45Sean Fennessey?

  Okay, I'll go first.

• 29:46Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 29:47Sean Fennessey?

  Will win Sentimental Value.

• 29:48Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 29:49Sean Fennessey?

  Should win The Secret Agent.

• 29:50Amanda Dobbins?

  We match.

• 29:51Sean Fennessey?

  Okay, so what, what informed that thinking?

• 29:53Amanda Dobbins?

  Sentimental Value is nominated in Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and with four acting nominations. People really like that movie. We spent a lot of time on Oscar Noms Morning being like sentimental value wave, like here it really comes. And I think that just the sheer numbers of it propel it. Secret Agent is nominated in Best Picture and also Bagnamora, Bagnamora is nominated for Best Actor. And it's nominated for casting.

• 30:24Sean Fennessey?

  It is.

• 30:24Amanda Dobbins?

  So there is like appreciation for it. But I think sentimental value, I mean, it has more nominations. And also, if you're imagining the person who actually sits down, who hadn't seen these movies before nominations, sits down and watches both of them, I think that sentimental value is gonna be an easier ask.

• 30:43Sean Fennessey?

  I think so, too.

• 30:45Amanda Dobbins?

  But I feel like I am betraying myself in Brazil. I am betraying both myself and the nation of Brazil.

• 30:51Sean Fennessey?

  I think this is a coin flip.

• 30:53Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 30:54Sean Fennessey?

  Joachim Schreer, a previous nominee. I think that helps him. I think he has campaigned very effectively, is extremely well liked. If you go through the list of nominees, favorite movies of the year, a lot of them, you'll hear say sentimental value. That's an interesting indicator of something. I think you're right that the raft of nominations that it has is notable. They don't have a lot of wins. They have not won a lot of precursors. You've got that Stone, Scars, Guard, Golden Globe win is very memorable, but there's not a lot of victories for this movie over that period of time. So it's not as though it has like a dramatic advantage over The Secret Agent. Is there any part of you that thinks it could be like a wild, it was just an accident or voice of Hinricha moment here?

• 31:35Amanda Dobbins?

  Anything could happen, but I, you know, when all else fails, when you don't know, I, like you, do ground myself in the numbers.

• 31:42Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah, the only thing that crossed my mind is just it's been such a dramatic and traumatic six weeks in Iran. And, you know, first the protests and then the awful murder of protesters and then the strikes from Israel and the United States. And there's just so much unrest in that space and so many people who are so angry about what's happening in that part of the world right now, that I don't know if that could boost the movie like this. I mean, it's so strange to conflate real world consequences.

• 32:10Amanda Dobbins?

  But listen, it's, I mean, it has been an escalating six weeks for sure, but none of that is new and it did not, and certainly not in the last six months. And Jafar Panahi won the, and it was just an accident, won the Palm, and then has been pretty much blanked throughout. Was threatened, you know, with imprisonment when he returns to Iran and it still didn't get him. Yeah, so I, I don't know. I mean, certainly the US has escalated in absolutely terrible ways. And, and Oscar voters do like to vote for some of their, vote their politics through that, but I don't know, it just doesn't seem to have caught on.

• 32:49Sean Fennessey?

  I think you're right.

• 32:50Amanda Dobbins?

  Amazing movie.

• 32:51Sean Fennessey?

  I'm a huge fan.

• 32:52Amanda Dobbins?

  I would be really excited, exciting if it won.

• 32:53Sean Fennessey?

  This is a good collection of nominees. This category is sometimes a bit wonky and I really like it this year, probably in part because Neon just plugged four of the five nominees. Documentary, feature, film. The nominees are The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, and The Perfect Neighbor.

• 33:11Amanda Dobbins?

  Not my favorite group of nominees.

• 33:13Sean Fennessey?

  Uh huh. We talked about it last week on the show.

• 33:16Amanda Dobbins?

  Will win The Perfect Neighbor, should win The Alabama Solution.

• 33:19Sean Fennessey?

  That's exactly what I had.

• 33:20Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 33:21Sean Fennessey?

  I would say it's a kind of a mild enthusiasm for The Alabama Solution, too.

• 33:24Amanda Dobbins?

  I think that Alabama Solution is competent and important and furthers really important work that, you know, a lot of people are already doing in an additive way.

• 33:34Sean Fennessey?

  Mm hmm.

• 33:35Amanda Dobbins?

  The Perfect Neighbor, we talked about on the documentary episode. It's certainly the most widely seen, the buzziest. It, you know, it was distributed by Netflix.

• 33:45Amanda Dobbins?

  I guess, I mean, it's interesting and the emotions and conversations that it elicits are worth further discussion.

• 33:53Sean Fennessey?

  Mm hmm.

• 33:55Amanda Dobbins?

  We both felt a little strange about it.

• 33:58Sean Fennessey?

  I don't think that the voters are going to feel as strange about it. I'm not ruling out Mr. Nobody Against Putin. There is a long track record of Russia-related films winning in this category. You can think about Icarus, you can think about, what is Modest Love Chernobyl's previous film before 20,000 meters to Andreyevka?

• 34:19Amanda Dobbins?

  Hmm.

• 34:21Sean Fennessey?

  Twenty Days for Mary Pole. Mary Pole, yeah. There is, I think there are certain sectors of the world that this category sometimes speaks to, and it's not always, there's some consistency there. And I think also Mr. Nobody Against Putin has a watchability factor that is maybe behind The Perfect Neighbor, but is probably in second place in this category.

• 34:45Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 34:45Sean Fennessey?

  And so I won't be shocked. I don't think I'll be thrilled if it wins, but I won't be shocked.

• 34:52Amanda Dobbins?

  Sasha standing on stage at the Oscars while everyone else is still in the most polluted town in Russia? Great.

• 34:58Sean Fennessey?

  Not ideal. I didn't realize that that film was also the submission by Denmark for international feature film, which is kind of fascinating about you because of the origins of the filmmakers. Anyhow, we'll see how that one shakes out. Okay, original score. The nominees are Jerskin Fendricks for Begonia, Alexander Des Plaats for Frankenstein, Max Richter for Hamnet, Johnny Greenwood for One Battle After Another, and Ludwig Gorenson for Sinners.

• 35:23Amanda Dobbins?

  Wait, is it? Oh, yeah, it's your turn.

• 35:25Sean Fennessey?

  It's my turn. Will win Ludwig Gornson for Sinners.

• 35:29Amanda Dobbins?

  Mm hmm.

• 35:29Sean Fennessey?

  I'm zagging Driskin-Fendricks for Begonia.

• 35:32Amanda Dobbins?

  Just who should win?

• 35:33Sean Fennessey?

  Just a score I like.

• 35:34Amanda Dobbins?

  I, we agree on Will win Ludwig Gornson for Sinners. And a should win is Daniel LaPatten for Marty Supremes.

• 35:40Sean Fennessey?

  Okay, well, that's not really how this works.

• 35:43Amanda Dobbins?

  This is our show. We can do what we want.

• 35:47Sean Fennessey?

  If that's where you want to be, understa- I mean, you can do that for every category.

• 35:51Amanda Dobbins?

  I'm doing it for this one.

• 35:52Sean Fennessey?

  Okay.

• 35:53Amanda Dobbins?

  The score branch is on notice.

• 35:57Sean Fennessey?

  What does that mean? Like, what are the consequences of that? What are you gonna do to them? You gonna hurt them?

• 36:02Amanda Dobbins?

  No.

• 36:03Sean Fennessey?

  You're gonna scold them publicly?

• 36:05Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes, I'm gonna scold them publicly and I'm gonna keep needling it.

• 36:10Sean Fennessey?

  Do you think you can make change within the Academy? Do you think you're possible?

• 36:13Amanda Dobbins?

  I think I'm 41 years of proof that you absolutely cannot.

• 36:17Sean Fennessey?

  What do you mean? Here you are, shining.

• 36:20Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 36:22Sean Fennessey?

  I-

• 36:22Amanda Dobbins?

  Here's, the next category is evidence that there is nothing I can do, even though this will be a deserving winner.

• 36:29Sean Fennessey?

  So in the race for how many Oscars does Sinners get? This would be the first one.

• 36:33Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 36:34Sean Fennessey?

  Okay, original song. Here are the nominees. Dear Me from Diane Warren, Relentless. Remember when I told you that I saw every single one of the Oscar nominees? I lied, I have not seen this and I will not see it. Golden from K-Pop Demon Hunters. I lied to you from Sinners. Sweet Dreams of Joy from Viva Verde. Train Dreams from Train Dreams.

• 36:52Amanda Dobbins?

  Mm hmm.

• 36:53Sean Fennessey?

  What do you got?

• 36:54Amanda Dobbins?

  Will win, Golden. Should win, Golden.

• 36:57Sean Fennessey?

  Did you consider I lied to you for should win?

• 37:00Amanda Dobbins?

  No, because at 7:55 this morning, uh, the only way I got my son's shoes on his feet was promising a Golden Dance Party at the end of it. And then everybody joined in. The baby, me. I still don't know all the words, but up, up, up, listen. That shit hits.

• 37:19Sean Fennessey?

  Can't argue with that.

• 37:19Amanda Dobbins?

  Also, both, both I lied to you and Golden obey the rule of it is a, um, song that is like material to the film itself, as opposed to just being tacked on at the end.

• 37:32Sean Fennessey?

  Agreed.

• 37:33Amanda Dobbins?

  So I, I like both of them. This is a rare good year for a category that for the most part exists to take, uh, Oscars away from Dua Lipa.

• 37:44Sean Fennessey?

  I think this is one of the only super locks of the whole night.

• 37:47Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay, I hope so because I explained to my four year old that this song was gonna win a trophy. And now every time he listens to it, he says, win the trophy, they win the trophy. So there's gonna be a lot, we're gonna learn about loss on Sunday if not.

• 38:04Sean Fennessey?

  Well, I mean, honestly, this is just great for the Academy. This is how you get little kids hooked on the Oscars. Like, I've been taking Alice to the Academy Museum and we go into that room where all of the Oscars are on display and then there's a room where you see a series of acceptance speeches and you see some of the outfits, the gowns, some of the envelopes that people opened. There's a way to kind of build some intrigue for young people around these awards. I think that's how I got started was just kind of getting interested in what my mom was watching on TV on that Sunday night every year and trying to figure out why that mattered. So this is a way to say, hey, this is something I should watch next year when it's like Diane Warren alone singing a song as the opening song to the show. It's not gonna be as effective, but this year they should take advantage of it. Okay.

• 38:45Amanda Dobbins?

  Wait, did you, did you officially give your pick for that?

• 38:48Sean Fennessey?

  Yes, Will Win.

• 38:50Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay, I'm just making sure, listen, you know what, you're the spreadsheet man, let's get it, you know.

• 38:56Amanda Dobbins?

  We have to use this against you later on, so.

• 38:59Sean Fennessey?

  If Golden doesn't win, I'll be very surprised.

• 39:01Amanda Dobbins?

  Me too.

• 39:01Sean Fennessey?

  Okay, next category, let's, let's go to the shorts. The dreaded shorts.

• 39:06Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 39:07Sean Fennessey?

  You watched all the shorts?

• 39:08Amanda Dobbins?

  I did.

• 39:10Sean Fennessey?

  Did you, did you like any of the shorts?

• 39:12Amanda Dobbins?

  I did. There was one that, and it's in our next category.

• 39:16Sean Fennessey?

  Okay.

• 39:17Amanda Dobbins?

  That I was deeply moved by and, and it's in my should win, so I can, it's, is it your turn or it's your turn? So you read the nominees.

• 39:27Sean Fennessey?

  I'll read the nominees. For best documentary short, the nominees are All The Empty Rooms, Armed Only With A Camera, The Life And Death Of Brent Renaud, Children No More, Were And Are Gone, The Devil Is Busy, and Perfectly Estrangeness.

• 39:42Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 39:42Sean Fennessey?

  Okay, so I have Will Win, All The Empty Rooms. And should win "Perfectly Estrangeness."

• 39:49Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay, whatever. Like, that's, they, you know, put some cameras on a donkey.

• 39:54Sean Fennessey?

  I enjoy that.

• 39:54Amanda Dobbins?

  Or put cameras on many donkeys.

• 39:56Sean Fennessey?

  Here's the thing, I would like for the doc branch to change their conception of what good documentary is. And good documentary is not always issues-oriented journalism. That's not, that's not only what documentary can be. The fact that this film, "Perfectly Estrangeness," which is this sort of like exploratory nature documentary about wildlife living near some sort of astronomy space, I thought was really interesting and fun to watch in a way that is different from all these films. Now, this is a pretty good category, I thought. I thought the nominees were pretty solid this year, but they bear a similar tonal weight.

• 40:34Amanda Dobbins?

  They do.

• 40:35Sean Fennessey?

  That the best doc category has this year.

• 40:37Amanda Dobbins?

  They do. I think picking the wordless donkey documentary, which was like experiential, that would be fine on the side of, that would be fine in a museum, you know, and you'd wander into a room and you'd be like, now I have the perspective of a donkey.

• 40:53Sean Fennessey?

  I disagree.

• 40:54Amanda Dobbins?

  I also have will win "All the Empty Rooms," should win "The Devil is Busy."

• 41:01Sean Fennessey?

  Okay.

• 41:01Amanda Dobbins?

  Which is, as you were saying, in some ways, an issues-driven documentary. It's about, you know, it follows a Planned Parenthood clinic in Atlanta, and it's directed by Gita Ganbir, who also directed "The Perfect Neighbor" and "Crystal and Hampton." And it's, it's exploring the setbacks, the rollbacks in women's healthcare, and yes, abortion, following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, and what that looks like for a clinic on the ground. So, sure.

• 41:33Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah, focused tightly on a, on a security officer within this space.

• 41:36Amanda Dobbins?

  So here's the thing, but here's the thing. It is about all those things. It is about issues, but it is about a woman named Tracy, who is the head of security. And I was knocked out by Tracy. And it's one of the examples of finding the right subject and finding someone who illuminates. And what Tracy illuminates about the day-to-day life at, at this clinic is important and outrageous, you know, outrageous and frustrating.

• 42:04Amanda Dobbins?

  And she's the first person there in the morning, and she has to make sure that all of the cars that are, are people waiting are. You know, people who have appointments and not people with guns and just like make sure you check the bags. You know, the, the day to day or hour to hour risk that she puts herself in is quite frightening, but it's really just the way that she goes about doing her job and doing her job despite the impossibility that the government and America and everything has set out for her and the lack of funding and just the specifics and the, the care

• 42:44Amanda Dobbins?

  and the matter of factness. She calls everyone guests. She puts out the, I just, I, I was so, so moved by her. And I'm like, I don't know if this film deserves an Oscar. Tracy deserves much more than an Oscar, but I like, I've thought about it every day since.

• 42:57Sean Fennessey?

  Well, that's the thing. I mean, so that's, that's an issue and something that feels very personal to you. And that is often what this category and these kinds of categories do.

• 43:06Amanda Dobbins?

  But it's not about the issue. It's about this person. Like there are, there are many of these people working.

• 43:10Sean Fennessey?

  But they're within the context of something that does matter to you.

• 43:12Amanda Dobbins?

  I guess, but sure. But like in healthcare, in education, there are like are many people who have, have like so much going on in their own lives and they just like do their job and try to help other people and they are never, never given a spotlight. And like that, that is genuinely what it is. There are many Tracys in the world. They don't all get documentaries. I, I thought she was wonderful.

• 43:33Sean Fennessey?

  I won't argue with that. All the empty rooms, we should say, which is the, the odds on favorite to win in this category is also a very emotional film. It's follows Steve Hartman, the CBS News correspondent, as he travels with a photographer embarking on a journey to memorialize the bedrooms of children killed in school shootings and speak to the families and create this kind of news media piece that represents this, you know, awful wave of 70 years of school shootings that we've had that, you know, primarily takes place in this country and the rage and the despair that kind of comes across those two things. Just a handful of Oscar voters I've talked to, this movie resonated very deeply with them.

• 44:14Sean Fennessey?

  It does seem like this is likely to, and this is also a Netflix film, so it is very easily accessible as well. You never know with the shorts, it's often very hard to predict, but this one feels right. The Devil is Busy and Armed Only with a Camera are currently available on HBO Max. Children No More is not available to view on for free.

• 44:38Amanda Dobbins?

  Just don't understand.

• 44:39Sean Fennessey?

  And Perfectly Estrangeness is coming to the Criterion Channel, I believe, next month. Either this month, or maybe it's available right now, maybe available right now.

• 44:47Amanda Dobbins?

  Is it Criterion or is it Canopy?

• 44:49Sean Fennessey?

  It may be on Canopy, but it's on the Criterion Channel.

• 44:52Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes, you're right.

• 44:54Sean Fennessey?

  Okay, live action short film. It's been a little while since I've seen these, so you'll have to help remind me a little bit, but you'll be able to predict first.

• 45:03Amanda Dobbins?

  I've now reverted back to, I don't like these shorts categories.

• 45:06Sean Fennessey?

  Understood.

• 45:07Amanda Dobbins?

  Tracy had her moment.

• 45:09Sean Fennessey?

  I had some time for a couple of these.

• 45:11Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 45:12Sean Fennessey?

  Live action short film, the nominees are Butcher's Stain, A Friend of Dorothy, Jane Austen's period drama, The Singers, and Two People Exchanging Saliva. I believe Will Win is Two People Exchanging Saliva. I think that's my should win. I think this and The Singers, I both thought were kind of interesting. I didn't love either of these films, but I liked them enough. I did not enjoy the other three. And I found a couple of them to be like borderline bad.

• 45:44Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes. Jane Austen's period drama, get out of here.

• 45:47Sean Fennessey?

  It was horrible, I thought.

• 45:48Amanda Dobbins?

  Well, it's just, it's like an SNL sketch.

• 45:50Sean Fennessey?

  Yes.

• 45:51Amanda Dobbins?

  But not, one of the not as funny ones, stretched out over 12 minutes.

• 45:57Sean Fennessey?

  Couldn't agree more.

• 45:58Amanda Dobbins?

  I don't care about, you know, I'm with like a real like, girl boss, let's talk about it. Not my type of humor.

• 46:05Amanda Dobbins?

  Um, I have will win Two People Exchanging Saliva and should win the best first feature Oscar. Like, get out, like, let's just, let's get out of this. Let's make a first feature and odd, because this is, this is the category where it's like, people are trying out what they can do.

• 46:19Sean Fennessey?

  Well, Two People Exchanging Saliva is really interesting. This is also the odds on favorite in this category. It's a film, you know, it's kind of an absurdist romance set in a world where kissing is illegal and slaps in the face are currency. And it's, it's an unusual movie. It feels very Yorgos Lanthimos.

• 46:39Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 46:40Sean Fennessey?

  Um, it's black and white. It's a French film. It's gotten some very strong reviews.

• 46:46Sean Fennessey?

  The woman who is the star of Ali Abasi's Holy Spider is the star of this movie. Um, her name is Zara Amir Ibrahim, and she's really good in the movie. It does feel like a, like a road test for a feature. And it felt like it could be a feature and maybe will be a feature.

• 47:03Amanda Dobbins?

  Right.

• 47:04Sean Fennessey?

  Um, and to your point about the best first feature.

• 47:06Amanda Dobbins?

  This is what I'm saying.

• 47:07Sean Fennessey?

  It's the most fully formed film.

• 47:08Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 47:09Sean Fennessey?

  Um, and there is an art to being able to make a 14 minute narrative feature that works really well. I didn't really feel like these other nominees did a great job of that. The Singers is really more of like a mood piece. It's about like a sing off in a bar amongst a group of men. And it's really more like a stylistic accomplishment to me. It looks very beautiful. It's the, the performances are, are interesting. It doesn't have the same, here's what we're trying to say about the world quality. It's just kind of nice to watch for 13 minutes and then you move on with your day. Butcher's Stain, I think, is very heavy and at times a little heavy handed.

• 47:43Amanda Dobbins?

  Correct.

• 47:44Sean Fennessey?

  Um, and a friend of Dorothy, I thought it was nice for Miriam Margulies to just like have a moment like that, who's had a very long career, I think of her most is the angry mother who shoots, accidentally shoots her son who is falling off of a roof in the film Magnolia.

• 48:01Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 48:02Sean Fennessey?

  An actress who's been around for a very long time. So it's a nice platform for her, but, you know, I think Two People Exchanging Saliva and The Singers are at least kind of interesting. And was this an easy pick for you?

• 48:15Amanda Dobbins?

  I think the two people exchanging saliva has enough. As you said, it's the quote unquote most mature, or it has the most like grabby look at me doing cinema stuff. You know, it is in, it looks very nice. It's in black and white. It has a lot of strange ideas. You want to try to figure out what's going on.

• 48:35Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah.

• 48:36Amanda Dobbins?

  So it made a lot of sense. It's being distributed by The New Yorker. So I heard from Madison at The New Yorker after my short slight.

• 48:44Sean Fennessey?

  Wow.

• 48:46Amanda Dobbins?

  Great humor. I'm excited for Madison. Thank you. You know what? And thank you to The New Yorker for at least making these available.

• 48:52Sean Fennessey?

  Agreed. That is a nice thing. If you're going to do this, these movies should at least be widely available. Let's do the last shorts category. It's best animated short. The nominees are Butterfly, AKA Papillon, Forever Green, The Girl Who Cried, Pearl's Retirement Plan, and The Three Sisters.

• 49:10Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 49:11Sean Fennessey?

  Now, you're not historically an animation person?

• 49:13Amanda Dobbins?

  I'm learning and I'm growing.

• 49:15Sean Fennessey?

  You are learning and growing. Not a shorts person either.

• 49:18Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 49:18Sean Fennessey?

  What'd you make of this crop?

• 49:20Amanda Dobbins?

  There were some things that were nice to look at.

• 49:24Amanda Dobbins?

  And I found myself, I'm not an animation person, but I'm, I'm heavy in illustrated children's books right now. And so, and spending a lot of time with the varying styles of artwork in those books. Because we recently tried to switch to chapter books and not accepting like, well, so where are the pictures? So I found myself responding to the, to the animation more as art and more to the styles that I thrill to.

• 49:53Sean Fennessey?

  I have to assume that's Papillon.

• 49:55Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 49:56Sean Fennessey?

  So I think Papillon will win.

• 49:58Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 49:58Sean Fennessey?

  I'm predicting it to win.

• 49:59Amanda Dobbins?

  I am as well.

• 49:59Sean Fennessey?

  It's a beautifully hand painted movie about a Jewish swimmer named Alfred Nikash who survived the Holocaust. You know, there's obviously a long history of Holocaust related films doing well at the Academy Awards. I don't think that's the, you know, the only reason, the primary reason why this movie would win. I think it's very visually distinct.

• 50:17Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 50:17Sean Fennessey?

  From a lot of these other films, some of which use traditional hand drawn animations, some of which use 3D animation. This just feels like a, a different kind of artistic experience. Yes. It's very, it's beautiful and very captivating and short.

• 50:30Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 50:31Sean Fennessey?

  And I think conveys its story and its message without being heavy handed either. So I think that's going to win. Honestly, if you told me The Girl Who Cried Pearls or Retirement Plan won, I wouldn't be surprised.

• 50:44Amanda Dobbins?

  Same. Retirement Plan has won a lot of like festival presentations.

• 50:50Sean Fennessey?

  It's very funny.

• 50:51Amanda Dobbins?

  And I liked it. I enjoyed it. I thought it was very funny. Shout out again to The New Yorker for making it available. I'm not a stop motion person.

• 50:58Sean Fennessey?

  The Girl Who Cried Pearls is a stop motion film.

• 51:00Amanda Dobbins?

  I just, I'm not, unless it's Heat Miser and Coal Miser and Rudolph. I just, I'm not really there.

• 51:05Sean Fennessey?

  Rank it in Bass, we salute.

• 51:06Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 51:08Amanda Dobbins?

  But that's personal preference.

• 51:09Sean Fennessey?

  Retirement Plan has a very small benefit, not just for being a New Yorker distributed short film, but also having a modicum of celebrity attached to it and Donald Gleason, who is the narrator of it. And it does feel a bit like an extended New Yorker cartoon. And in that way, it's very clever and also somewhat brief and effective. I think it's only seven minutes long. I liked that one the best. I think Pop, I think Papillon will win, but who the hell knows?

• 51:35Amanda Dobbins?

  I'm going with will win and should win Papillon.

• 51:38Sean Fennessey?

  Okay.

• 51:38Amanda Dobbins?

  But we'll see.

• 51:39Sean Fennessey?

  Next category, costume design. The nominees are as follows. Debra L. Scott for Avatar: Fire and Ash, Kate Holly for Frankenstein, Malgoja Turzanska for Hamlet, Miyako Belitsi for Marty Supreme, and Ruth E. Carter for Sinners. What do you got?

• 51:56Amanda Dobbins?

  Kate Holly, Frankenstein, will win, and should win Miyako Belitsi, Marty Supreme.

• 52:01Sean Fennessey?

  We match.

• 52:01Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 52:02Sean Fennessey?

  I probably would have been comfortable with any of the, I think this is a pretty good category.

• 52:08Amanda Dobbins?

  It should win.

• 52:10Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah, I have Frankenstein for Kate Holly will win, and I have Miyako Belitsi for Marty Supreme.

• 52:14Amanda Dobbins?

  She's won the guild stuff and she won it back to.

• 52:16Sean Fennessey?

  Kate Holly.

• 52:16Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 52:17Sean Fennessey?

  Yes. I feel pretty strongly this is gonna happen. I just mean that all five of these nominees I think are good.

• 52:25Amanda Dobbins?

  Say more about Avatar: Fire and Ash costume design.

• 52:30Sean Fennessey?

  Um, I think there's costume design for giant Na'vi creatures.

• 52:34Amanda Dobbins?

  Sure.

• 52:34Sean Fennessey?

  And that's an art.

• 52:35Amanda Dobbins?

  The, uh, what's the Una Chaplin character's name?

• 52:39Sean Fennessey?

  Varrang.

• 52:40Amanda Dobbins?

  Varrang's, Varrang's look is, is very, uh,

• 52:44Sean Fennessey?

  Hip forward.

• 52:45Amanda Dobbins?

  Directional. Yeah.

• 52:46Sean Fennessey?

  Yes, it is. Uh, that, that's, it's an aspect of costume design that is a little under discussed, which is that it's, it is fabrics and textures sometimes, but it's, it's also just look. It's what are, how are CGI characters clothed is a factor, I think, in this category. And maybe like a way that the category might be evolving a little bit. I think one of the reasons why Kate Hawley has the most classical costume winning design.

• 53:10Amanda Dobbins?

  Right.

• 53:10Sean Fennessey?

  That you will find at the Academy Awards.

• 53:12Amanda Dobbins?

  Listen, one of the nice things I had to say about Frankenstein was that red dress and how that red dress is used. It was, and also the, the bride of Frankenstein in that film is very beautifully ornately present, you know?

• 53:24Sean Fennessey?

  Yes.

• 53:25Amanda Dobbins?

  So I'm, I get it. Deserving.

• 53:28Sean Fennessey?

  Won't be the last time we talk about Frankenstein. Let's talk about makeup and hairstyling.

• 53:31Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 53:31Sean Fennessey?

  The nominees are Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cleona Fury for Frankenstein. Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu for Kokuhou. Uh, Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry for Sinners. Kazuhiko Glen Griffin and Bjorn Raven for The Smashing Machine. And Thomas Foldberg and Anne Catherine Sauerberg for The Ugly Stepsister.

• 53:56Amanda Dobbins?

  Mm-hmm.

• 53:59Sean Fennessey?

  Will win Frankenstein?

• 54:01Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 54:02Sean Fennessey?

  Should win The Ugly Stepsister.

• 54:04Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay. This is the one I forgot to watch.

• 54:06Sean Fennessey?

  Okay.

• 54:07Amanda Dobbins?

  Because it's, I knew that I needed to do Kokuhou and The Lost Bus. And because you also hadn't seen.

• 54:16Sean Fennessey?

  I watched Kokuhou. Yes.

• 54:17Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 54:17Sean Fennessey?

  Yes. I had seen The Lost Bus previously.

• 54:20Amanda Dobbins?

  But you had seen The Ugly Stepsister.

• 54:23Sean Fennessey?

  I had.

• 54:23Amanda Dobbins?

  So I forgot because it wasn't noted in your list. Um, I think should win Frankenstein. They did a good job with the creature design.

• 54:31Sean Fennessey?

  Can't argue with that.

• 54:32Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 54:32Sean Fennessey?

  Um, I think Kokuhou is an interesting film. It's a three hour Japanese epic about Kabuki and two friends who move through the world of Kabuki. Um,

• 54:43Sean Fennessey?

  Tom Cruise's favorite movie of 2025. Ugly stepsister is very gross and funny. And its humor hinges on its makeup and hairstyling, which is why I'm making the pick. It is like to your point about songs. It's not just incidental to the movie. It is core to the movie, as is Frankenstein. But I just liked what the ugly stepsister did with it a little bit better. Two wins for Frankenstein.

• 55:05Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 55:05Sean Fennessey?

  Zero wins so far for One Battle After Another. One win for Sinners. Production design.

• 55:11Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 55:13Sean Fennessey?

  The nominees are Tamara Deverell for Frankenstein, Fiona Crombie for Hamlet, Jack Fisk for Marty Supreme, Florencia Martin for One Battle After Another, and Hannah Beekler and Monique Champagne for Sinners.

• 55:26Amanda Dobbins?

  Will win, Tamara Deverell, Frankenstein. Should win, Jack Fisk for Marty Supreme. Give Jack Fisk an Oscar.

• 55:36Sean Fennessey?

  I agree. We match on this as well. I don't know how we just, how we just settled on this. It just, just.

• 55:42Amanda Dobbins?

  We're doing a tremendous amount of work there.

• 55:45Sean Fennessey?

  I have, how did the Academy and all the precursors just land on this?

• 55:49Amanda Dobbins?

  Because Frankenstein really has swept the guilds and precursors in production costume and makeup and hairstyling. And the putting, and at the time, people talked about, oh, it's, you know, handmade and so beautiful and like so magisterial to look at. I think you and I did not thrill to all of it in the same way. But I do think a lot of craft, there are a lot of craft voters. And they like, they appreciate and that they can see all of like the hand, literal handwork that goes into it. So.

• 56:25Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah, I mean, it's, it's a really interesting category because it, it waxes and wanes in terms of what kind of stories it wants to celebrate. From fantasy to historical period piece to future set movies.

• 56:40Amanda Dobbins?

  Right.

• 56:40Sean Fennessey?

  And I think Marty Supreme falls into an uncomfortable middle zone.

• 56:45Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 56:45Sean Fennessey?

  In terms of what is being celebrated and, and recognized. So just to go the last, through the last few years of production design, last year's winner was Wicked. Which I think is actually not a bad, I think the production design in that movie is pretty good. I think it's shot very poorly, but I think the, the, the design of the world works.

• 56:59Amanda Dobbins?

  Which is also what you could say about Frankenstein. And I, the production design is not, and also the cinematography is like not dissimilar.

• 57:06Sean Fennessey?

  It's true.

• 57:06Amanda Dobbins?

  And I remember watching Frankenstein, I mean, like, why does this lair where he's building it look exactly like the clock room in Wicked?

• 57:13Sean Fennessey?

  That's a very good call. Uh, 2023 is Poor Things, also wonderful production design in that movie. 2022, All Quiet on the Western Front.

• 57:20Amanda Dobbins?

  Sure.

• 57:21Sean Fennessey?

  2021, Dune. 2020, Mank.

• 57:24Amanda Dobbins?

  And 2019 was, um, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, right?

• 57:28Sean Fennessey?

  Yes, Barbara Ling and Nancy Hay. And that's probably the closest we have in terms of a comp to Marty Supreme.

• 57:33Amanda Dobbins?

  Right. But what were the, what were the competitors in 2019? Cause they tend to go just what is, what's the oldest, uh, we can go here?

• 57:43Sean Fennessey?

  Uh, that year's nominees were The Irishman.

• 57:46Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 57:46Sean Fennessey?

  Similarly, you know, in the 50s, Jojo Rabbit, 1917.

• 57:51Amanda Dobbins?

  Oh.

• 57:52Sean Fennessey?

  And Parasite.

• 57:52Amanda Dobbins?

  All right.

• 57:53Sean Fennessey?

  So.

• 57:54Amanda Dobbins?

  But they didn't give the home in Parasite production design. So.

• 57:58Sean Fennessey?

  No, they didn't.

• 57:59Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 57:59Sean Fennessey?

  It's very interesting. Jack Fisk, here's the thing. He's extremely well-known amongst cinephiles.

• 58:06Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 58:06Sean Fennessey?

  Why the Academy doesn't care, I'm not sure. Um, he has been nominated four times with no wins and he's 80 years old. It's a shame.

• 58:18Sean Fennessey?

  This episode is brought to you by Volkswagen. There is such a thing as becoming too comfortable in your day to day, but our favorite films with stories that make us change the way we think, they weren't made by people content to just sit back and watch the world pass by. This is your sign that you shouldn't either. From us, from VW and the other drivers out there, grab the wheel. Do what you love, even if it means taking the road less traveled. Learn more at VW.com. Okay, let's do sound. There are quite a few people associated with this, so I won't read every single nominee's name, but these are the films that are nominated for best sound. F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, and Serat.

• 58:56Amanda Dobbins?

  Mm-hmm.

• 58:57Sean Fennessey?

  Is it my turn to go first?

• 58:58Amanda Dobbins?

  It is.

• 58:59Sean Fennessey?

  Will win F1.

• 59:00Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 59:01Sean Fennessey?

  Should win Sinners.

• 59:03Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay. I did should win F1. Like, why not? Vroom, vroom.

• 59:08Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah, Sinners is both a music movie and an action movie.

• 59:14Amanda Dobbins?

  I had Sinners until I was just kinda like, sure.

• 59:17Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah.

• 59:17Amanda Dobbins?

  Cars go loud.

• 59:18Sean Fennessey?

  At the MPSA Awards, Sinners won the award for ADR dialogue, which I thought was interesting, in part because, you know, they're using those heavy cameras. And so the ADR really has to work well because they're loud. F1, of course, there's a lot of cameras mounted on fucking race cars. So that also is a feat. As always, I am no expert in sound. And every year, someone who works in the sound industry DMs me and is like, "Stop talking about this. You sound like an asshole." I apologize. I'm doing my best. I'm not an expert. F1 seems like it would be a fine winner.

• 59:50Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 59:50Sean Fennessey?

  You think this will be F1's only win?

• 59:53Amanda Dobbins?

  Uh, yes, I do. I had to scroll down a little, but yes.

• 59:56Sean Fennessey?

  Not that picture?

• 59:57Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 59:58Sean Fennessey?

  Okay, just making sure. Next category, visual effects.

• 1:00:03Sean Fennessey?

  The nominees are Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1: Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus, and Sinners. What do you got?

• 1:00:11Amanda Dobbins?

  Will win, Avatar: Fire and Ash. Should win, F1. I don't know. Why not?

• 1:00:18Sean Fennessey?

  No.

• 1:00:19Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 1:00:19Sean Fennessey?

  No. Should put some respect on Big Jim's name. He invented an entirely new way of making films.

• 1:00:25Amanda Dobbins?

  That's cool, and he's won Oscars for it. And I didn't like watching this one as much as I liked the other one, where they did race cars and then they made it look real.

• 1:00:33Sean Fennessey?

  Okay. Did you know that Avatar won?

• 1:00:35Amanda Dobbins?

  I would prefer that we make things look real believably and with craft, than, rather than creating new things. That's just my taste.

• 1:00:44Sean Fennessey?

  That's interesting. That does seem to be stifling creativity.

• 1:00:49Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay. It's just like, I like stories about humans instead of, you know, fantasy stories. That's fine.

• 1:00:55Sean Fennessey?

  Humans appear in the film Avatar: Fire and Ash. They're the villains, of course.

• 1:00:59Amanda Dobbins?

  It's mostly just Edie Falco and one of the...

• 1:01:02Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah, power loader.

• 1:01:02Amanda Dobbins?

  Power loaders.

• 1:01:03Sean Fennessey?

  God bless. Okay, film editing, and here's where things...

• 1:01:06Amanda Dobbins?

  I should have ordered a power loader for the Instagram life.

• 1:01:09Sean Fennessey?

  Whoa.

• 1:01:12Sean Fennessey?

  Do those exist? Is that a real thing? No, Jack, you don't know.

• 1:01:16Speaker 05

  I don't think so.

• 1:01:17Sean Fennessey?

  Jack, get us a power loader.

• 1:01:18Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:01:19Speaker 05

  All right, I'm on it.

• 1:01:19Amanda Dobbins?

  And make it fit into this studio.

• 1:01:22Sean Fennessey?

  Should I interview Steven Spielberg Waltz in a power loader? That would be a real alpha move. Okay, film editing. And here's where.

• 1:01:30Amanda Dobbins?

  We show our hand?

• 1:01:31Sean Fennessey?

  Well, here's where the wheels start churning, truly, for what's gonna happen on this night. We have just gotten through the bulk of the Kraft Awards, but there's a couple more to come. And I think they're gonna be very indicative of what's going to go down. So film editing. The nominees are Steven Mirion for F1, Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme, Andy Jurgensen for One Battle After Another, Olivier Boudot for Sentimental Value, and Michael Schauer for Sinners. I go first.

• 1:02:04Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 1:02:04Sean Fennessey?

  Will win One Battle After Another. Andy Jurgensen should win One Battle After Another. Andy Jurgensen.

• 1:02:10Amanda Dobbins?

  Oh, interesting. Okay, you're not spreading the wealth.

• 1:02:13Sean Fennessey?

  This is a two hour and 40 minute film that feels like it's an hour and 40 minutes. The most memorable moment from the film, among the most memorable moments in movies this year, is the car chase scene, which is an extraordinary feat of editing through the hills of Borrego Springs. This is Andy Jurgensen's second feature as lead editor on a movie. He is not an Academy regular. His only other editing credit as a lead editor is Licorice Pizza. So him winning here, it would remind me a little bit of Eric Messerschmidt's win for Cinematography for Mank, where it was a guy who was on Fincher's team for a while and was present for a lot of stuff. And when he got bumped up, he got awarded pretty quickly. That's kind of what this feels like to me.

• 1:02:59Sean Fennessey?

  What do you think is gonna happen?

• 1:03:00Amanda Dobbins?

  I also have Andy Jurgensen One Battle After Another to win. I would be happy. It should win. It can, I agree with you, but I put something different just for fun, which is Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme, which is another. Long movie that moves and moves and moves. And part of its feature is that relentlessness. And, and the editing and the pacing to make you feel incredibly stressed out. You think also about like the sports elements of it and like the ping pong scenes and the, and it's, it is, there's a lot to fit into it. And I loved that film, so let's spread the wealth.

• 1:03:38Sean Fennessey?

  I think it's a great shout. It's a, it's a really good category in general. I think actually sentimental value is probably running in last place in this category, but is also a very well edited film because there's lots of, it's kind of sliding between history at times and sliding between perspectives and trying to balance a lot of characters' narratives in a way that is a little bit more, is a little quieter, but I think is also very accomplished. Good job by the Academy Awards recognizing these films. Now for our predictions for this year's best casting award brought to you by Volkswagen. No one wins an award by just sitting around thinking up great ideas for the big screen. They make it happen. No matter how many years it takes, this is a call from us, from VW and from all those award winning drivers out there. Get in the director's seat. Make your dreams happen because honestly, what are you waiting for?

• 1:04:21Sean Fennessey?

  Okay, best casting, the first year ever for this award. The nominees are as follows. For Hamlet, Nina Gold. For Marty Supreme, Jennifer Vanditti. For One Battle After Another, Cassandra Colacundus. For The Secret Agent, Gabriel Dominguez. And for Sinners, Francine Maisler.

• 1:04:37Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 1:04:38Sean Fennessey?

  What do you got?

• 1:04:39Amanda Dobbins?

  Oh, it's my turn. Uh, will win Francine Maisler, Sinners, and should win Gabriel Dominguez, The Secret Agent.

• 1:04:49Sean Fennessey?

  That is exactly what I have.

• 1:04:51Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:04:51Sean Fennessey?

  Now, let's start by just talking about Francine Maisler for a moment. Francine Maisler is a legend. I'm gonna just share with you, well, let's start with this. She's cast nine Best Picture nominees in the last seven years. She is perhaps the most revered casting director in Hollywood. Here are her credits from the beginning of her career in the 1990s. These are just the movies that she cast in the 1990s. Her first film where she's identified as the casting director is Reality Bites, then The Usual Suspects, then Bad Boys, then The People vs. Larry Flynt, then As Good As It Gets, then Out of Sight, and then You've Got Mail. Those, that's sequentially, I've not removed anything or added any, those are the

• 1:05:35Sean Fennessey?

  movies that she cast, which are basically all incredibly memorable.

• 1:05:38Amanda Dobbins?

  That's one of the all time streaks in any discipline?

• 1:05:42Sean Fennessey?

  If you go through the, her career, I mean, her 2000s is not dissimilar from this. She has been associated with so many beloved movies over the years. I met her at Telluride a couple of years ago. She was such a cool person and an interesting person. She is a Hollywood casting director, though. She's great at casting working actors. And what makes her different from most of her other nominees in this category, which is they do something different. And if you look at what Jennifer Vendetti has been doing for a lot of movies, a lot of A24 movies, but a lot of films over the last 10 years, especially Safdie Brothers movies. Gabriel Dominguez, who we both think did amazing work, finding so many Brazilians who are non-professional actors. And One Battle 2 has reams and reams of first time faces, people who've never been in a

• 1:06:27Sean Fennessey?

  movie before.

• 1:06:28Amanda Dobbins?

  And grace notes like Mr. Wonderful and, no, no, that's Marty Spring. Sorry. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. But other, but other recognizable people from other movies, but not in the sense of, I see, it's not Leonardo DiCaprio.

• 1:06:42Sean Fennessey?

  Yes, yes.

• 1:06:42Amanda Dobbins?

  But you also have Leonardo DiCaprio.

• 1:06:44Sean Fennessey?

  No, I mean, the two most memorable ones to me are the, the sort of the intake nurse when Bob has been arrested and then the nurse who frees him, those two women who are not, who are non-professional actors and who are among the most memorable people in that movie. So there's so much accomplishment there. And then Nina Golden Hamnett is a smaller crop, but I think Jacoby Jupp in particular is like a real discovery and he is the beating heart of that movie in many ways. And so she did good work as well. The question I think about this category, which fascinates me is, will this secretly just become a best ensemble win?

• 1:07:18Amanda Dobbins?

  Because Sinners won the best ensemble at the SAG Awards and because it is, it's rewarding a bunch of people that we really like.

• 1:07:27Sean Fennessey?

  Correct.

• 1:07:27Amanda Dobbins?

  It could, I think it's unfair to pin that on Sinners because in addition to casting Michael B. Jordan and Hailee Steinfeld and Jack O'Connell and Delroy Lindo and people who we know, although maybe not, you know. Lee Steinfeld was, I didn't expect that from her.

• 1:07:44Sean Fennessey?

  I didn't either.

• 1:07:44Amanda Dobbins?

  So, you know, that's some imagination, but like Miles Keaton is the find. And the movie hinges on him. And so it's doing, and then on down the line of the supporting actors, some are more well-known than others and some are, some are that guys. But there is, she's working at volume and she also found the right new person and found, and reinvented some known people. So I think that this actually is a feat of casting.

• 1:08:13Sean Fennessey?

  I think it is too. You've also got to consider when you introduce a new award, there's a whole line of people who are ready for an It's Time Award.

• 1:08:20Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:08:21Sean Fennessey?

  Francine Maisler happens to be the casting director of one of the most acclaimed films, the most nominated film in the history of the Oscars. It's just a convergence of a lot of things that I think is leading to this, her likely winning. If she doesn't win, that will be notable, I think, for the future precedent of the award and kind of what the award, what people are voting for and why? Because most people who are voting on this award will have seen these films. Unlike some of these other categories where there may be abstentions, there's not going to be a lot of abstentions in this category going forward. It's going to be one of the most voted on categories, despite it being a below the line category. It's kind of interesting to me. That was our Best Casting Awards prediction, brought to you by Volkswagen. Like some of our favorite protagonists in film this past year, if you want to make the most of your life, you have to chase after what you want.

• 1:09:05Sean Fennessey?

  Because when you sit back and become a passenger in your day to day life, that's an easy way to make regrets. Learn more at vw.com. Okay. Next category is cinematography.

• 1:09:17Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 1:09:17Sean Fennessey?

  The nominees are Dan Lausen for Frankenstein, Darius Kanji from Marty's Supreme, Michael Baumann for One Battle After Another, Autumn Dural Darkapoff for Sinners, Adolfo Veloso for Train Dreams. What do you got?

• 1:09:30Amanda Dobbins?

  It's my turn again?

• 1:09:31Sean Fennessey?

  Okay, it's my turn. Michael Baumann for One Battle After Another will win. Autumn Dural Darkapoff for Sinners should win.

• 1:09:37Amanda Dobbins?

  We match. But it's, I mean.

• 1:09:41Sean Fennessey?

  It's a tight race.

• 1:09:43Amanda Dobbins?

  It is, but.

• 1:09:44Sean Fennessey?

  You think Autumn could still win?

• 1:09:45Amanda Dobbins?

  She could. She could, and that would be really, really exciting. I just, awesome interview on this podcast, but like amazing work. And I think even compared with some of the other nominees in this category, and I won't name names, but it's Sinner's is a period piece and it is like recreating a world. And as she talked about recreating it, like in a beautiful photographic way. So it's, it's really, really great work. It could happen. On the other hand, when Michael Baumann won the ACE Awards.

• 1:10:21Sean Fennessey?

  ASC.

• 1:10:22Amanda Dobbins?

  ASC, ASC. We sat here talking about like, no, he's won every single precursor. So it's probably going to be Michael Baumann. And also that is a beautiful movie.

• 1:10:31Sean Fennessey?

  It is. He's another interesting person like Andy Jurgensen, who, you know, on his previous film with Paul Thomas Anderson, they were co credited as DP. Paul Thomas Anderson did not take a DP co credit on this movie. He is now, Baumann is now, he's made a lot of television as well. He's the DP of the forthcoming Anthony Bourdain film that Matt Johnson made. He's obviously very gifted, but he's not like an industry legend. The other thing for Autumn is a woman has never won this award.

• 1:11:01Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:11:02Sean Fennessey?

  I mean, it's just crazy that a woman has never won this award. And there have been many nominees over the years and Ryan Coogler films have gotten nominees over the years. Rachel Morrison has been nominated here, but you know, that's not the reason she should win. I think she should win because she brings a real artistic flair to the world that Coogler created. But it's an interesting one. This feels, we're getting into the indicative zone.

• 1:11:27Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:11:27Sean Fennessey?

  Of where my head's at with the awards and what it could mean.

• 1:11:31Amanda Dobbins?

  The only other thing I want to say, because this sort of concludes the below the line category and Autumn is one of a trio of Sinner's department heads. Also Ruth E. Carter and Hannah Beekler.

• 1:11:44Sean Fennessey?

  Yes.

• 1:11:45Amanda Dobbins?

  That Coogler has assembled and worked with, and they're just like the, the power trio.

• 1:11:49Sean Fennessey?

  Yes.

• 1:11:49Amanda Dobbins?

  Of. Black women and making movies. So it seems, and we haven't predicted them to win, and that's kind of a bummer.

• 1:11:59Sean Fennessey?

  Anna Beakler has won in the past and Ruthie Carter has won in the past. And I think that there was some thinking that Autumn would be able to go in there because these films are so loved. I mean, the look of Sinners is really fascinating and Autumn talked about it at length when she was on the show. And Autumn has also been doing a lot of press and has put herself out there, and I think in a very smart way. So, you know, we will see what happens, but.

• 1:12:18Amanda Dobbins?

  Just wanted to, wanted to shout them out because they're, they're great. That's all.

• 1:12:21Sean Fennessey?

  They are great. I'm going to come back to Andy and Michael being my picks and how it relates to the rest of the puzzle.

• 1:12:26Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 1:12:27Sean Fennessey?

  Best original screenplay.

• 1:12:28Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 1:12:28Sean Fennessey?

  The nominees are Robert Kaplow for Blue Moon, Jafar Panahi and script collaborators for It Was Just an Accident. Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme, Joakim Trier and Eskil Vokt for Sentimental Value and Ryan Coogler for Sinners.

• 1:12:43Amanda Dobbins?

  Will win Sinners, should win Sinners.

• 1:12:47Sean Fennessey?

  I wrote will win Sinners, should win Sentimental Value.

• 1:12:50Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 1:12:51Sean Fennessey?

  Just, just a feeling I had.

• 1:12:52Amanda Dobbins?

  That's, that's beautiful.

• 1:12:53Sean Fennessey?

  I think it's a great film. I think it's really art. I think the, I think the work, the, the best work the Cooler does is the vision. I think the script is very good.

• 1:13:02Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:13:03Sean Fennessey?

  And I think the central conceit of colliding the idea of a vampire movie and black blues music and the history of black Americans is just ingenious, right? There's just something very special in that metaphor. But sentimental value is very writerly. It is very novelistic in a way that I admire. I really like what Joakim Trier does. So that's my pick. Any, there's no chance for an upset here. Coogler is getting this.

• 1:13:29Amanda Dobbins?

  I really, I will be very upset if there is an upset because this is, this is our category. This is, this is where all the real ones actually do get their Oscar, even if they're deserving of many more, which is also the case of Ryan Coogler. And also I just, I think it's a, it's a, a tough night and a bad look if he's not up there.

• 1:13:52Sean Fennessey?

  I agree with that.

• 1:13:53Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:13:53Sean Fennessey?

  Best adapted screenplay. The nominees are Will Tracy for Begonia, Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein, Chloe Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell for Hamlet, Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another, and Clint Bentley and Greg Queedar for Train Dreams. Will win One Battle After Another, Paul Thomas Anderson.

• 1:14:08Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 1:14:08Sean Fennessey?

  Should win One Battle After Another for Paul Thomas Anderson.

• 1:14:11Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 1:14:12Sean Fennessey?

  You agree.

• 1:14:12Amanda Dobbins?

  What if I was like, should win Hamlet?

• 1:14:14Sean Fennessey?

  You should say Frankenstein. This will almost certainly be Paul Thomas Anderson's first Academy Award. He has been 0 for 11 up until this point. Will it be his last of the night? Probably not. Let's talk about that category now. Best Director. The nominees are Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another, Ryan Coogler for Sinners, Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme, Joakim Trier for Sentimental Value, and Chloe Zhao for Hamlet.

• 1:14:43Amanda Dobbins?

  Will win Paul Thomas Anderson and should win Paul Thomas Anderson.

• 1:14:46Sean Fennessey?

  I agree.

• 1:14:47Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:14:48Sean Fennessey?

  Won the DGA. Everybody likes Paul Thomas Anderson.

• 1:14:52Amanda Dobbins?

  Has won, and it is the, the quote unquote, it's time narrative comes to its conclusion. Not like too far past when it should have gone. It's, and this is also, it's not like a Scorsese winning for The Departed type situation, I think, even though I enjoy watching The Departed, even though I don't understand what happens at the end of it. I, we really like, like this movie. And I think that there is a magic to the way that it was made, that we've heard about from PTA and from everyone who worked with him. And there was a magic to the result, his first action movie, but is also so much more than an action movie.

• 1:15:34Amanda Dobbins?

  And he has, he has been the leader of all these people. So I, I feel good about it. I mean, I feel bad that other people are losing. Let's say that.

• 1:15:45Sean Fennessey?

  How did, how did, how did Phantom Thread not get nominated for Best Original Screenplay?

• 1:15:51Amanda Dobbins?

  It's.

• 1:15:51Sean Fennessey?

  What happened there?

• 1:15:52Amanda Dobbins?

  The, the Phantom Thread disrespect.

• 1:15:55Sean Fennessey?

  I don't, he didn't even get nominated.

• 1:15:57Amanda Dobbins?

  Listen.

• 1:15:58Sean Fennessey?

  The nominees are Get Out, The Big Sick, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards.

• 1:16:04Amanda Dobbins?

  I, I remember that morning feeling excited with the number of nominations that Phantom Thread did get.

• 1:16:11Sean Fennessey?

  But it's just bananas. Cause he got best director that year.

• 1:16:15Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:16:15Sean Fennessey?

  And not screenplay and there are obviously 10 screenplay nominees. I'm that's just utterly bizarre to me. I like the big six too, but I mean, come on. Okay, that's just a sidebar. It's one of those things where it's like, that's one of the things that happens where you would expect someone like him to have already had a best original screenplay Oscar. And then that leads to this feeling that has been burbling throughout the year of like, man, it's beyond its time for Paul Thomas Anderson. And then like, now you can say, well, is there going to be an overcorrection on that time? We'll get, we'll get to that. Okay, this is where things get really interesting.

• 1:16:46Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:16:47Sean Fennessey?

  We're gonna do the, the acting awards. I don't feel good about three out of these four. I don't think most awards prognosticators feel good about three out of these four. How do you feel?

• 1:16:56Amanda Dobbins?

  I think that I'm going to be wrong about one of them.

• 1:16:58Sean Fennessey?

  For sure.

• 1:16:59Amanda Dobbins?

  And so then I was spiraling of trying to outthink what I would be wrong about and then correct for it. And then I, you know, I am looking at history. I'm looking at the old results. I'm, I'm triangulating as best I can, but then I have to think about, am I, you know, like, holding on too hard to the past? Do I need to like, open my mind? So I'm, listen, I'm spiraling. I don't know what to say.

• 1:17:24Sean Fennessey?

  You're spiraling.

• 1:17:25Amanda Dobbins?

  I'm not spiraling. I've made my decisions and I have written everything down.

• 1:17:28Sean Fennessey?

  Hang in there, mama. You got this. Best actor in a supporting role.

• 1:17:33Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 1:17:33Sean Fennessey?

  That's how we're gonna start.

• 1:17:34Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 1:17:35Sean Fennessey?

  The nominees are Benicio del Toro for One Battle After Another, Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein, Delroy Lindo for Sinners, Sean Penn for One Battle After Another, and Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value.

• 1:17:46Amanda Dobbins?

  Mm hmm. I think it's your turn.

• 1:17:49Sean Fennessey?

  I've chosen Sean Penn.

• 1:17:50Amanda Dobbins?

  I have as well.

• 1:17:51Sean Fennessey?

  For will win. And I've chosen Stellan Skarsgård for should win.

• 1:17:55Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 1:17:57Sean Fennessey?

  I think it's possible that Stellan Skarsgård wins. I don't see the Delroy Lindo thing.

• 1:18:04Amanda Dobbins?

  But there are people who are passionate about it.

• 1:18:05Sean Fennessey?

  There are people who say, this is Marcia Gay Harden for Pollock. Has not won any precursors.

• 1:18:11Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 1:18:11Sean Fennessey?

  Nobody is really talking about this happening. And then all of a sudden, you hear that name and you're like, oh, my God. A real, genuine Oscar surprise.

• 1:18:20Amanda Dobbins?

  And I think many of those people are pointing to, first of all, that he got in without having won. And he was the surprise nominee.

• 1:18:29Sean Fennessey?

  He was.

• 1:18:30Amanda Dobbins?

  But then also that he accepted Best Ensemble at the Sack Awards. And so he was the last person on the stage that you heard from.

• 1:18:39Sean Fennessey?

  Correct.

• 1:18:39Amanda Dobbins?

  And really like held the room.

• 1:18:41Sean Fennessey?

  And so if you believe in the vibe shift.

• 1:18:43Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:18:43Sean Fennessey?

  The Sinner's vibe shift, that this is, would be the clearest sign of it changing. It wouldn't indicate specifically, but I will say this. Sean Penn winning the two precursors despite not showing up. What that has essentially done, and I had someone who's very smart about this stuff, share this insight with me yesterday. This is a category that this movie didn't even have a month ago.

• 1:19:08Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:19:08Sean Fennessey?

  You know, when, when everybody thought it was Stellan Skarsgård or Jacob Elordi. This just adds to one battle's strength. So if Sean Penn wins.

• 1:19:17Amanda Dobbins?

  Mm hmm.

• 1:19:17Sean Fennessey?

  That might also very clearly indicate which way the wind is blowing. Now, there's some speculation that Sean Penn won't even go to the Academy Awards.

• 1:19:24Amanda Dobbins?

  He went to the Golden Globes.

• 1:19:25Sean Fennessey?

  He did, but I wonder if the reaction he got at the Golden Globes is why he's like, fuck all this, I don't care, which would be really, honestly, really funny. But like, I think it was Variety today had some piece that was like, please, Sean Penn, go to the, go to the Oscars. I don't, who cares? Like, it's like, that's his whole thing is he's like, fuck you to everybody.

• 1:19:43Amanda Dobbins?

  Surely they can, I, I don't think they'll let him smoke inside the auditorium, but they've, they can set up a little room on the side.

• 1:19:49Sean Fennessey?

  How do you feel about public smoking? You think we should bring it back?

• 1:19:51Amanda Dobbins?

  Smoking is back. I mean, I don't think that-

• 1:19:52Sean Fennessey?

  That's not what I asked you.

• 1:19:53Amanda Dobbins?

  I, I think that, I think that we should not have it everywhere all the time because, like wherever you want.

• 1:20:02Sean Fennessey?

  Mm hmm.

• 1:20:02Amanda Dobbins?

  Because I gotta take my kids places. And then also it's just your hair really smells, your clothes, that sort of thing. And I just, I can't be doing laundry on that level. But, uh, and also it's bad for you, children. My children, no. Um, don't smoke.

• 1:20:17Sean Fennessey?

  I grew up in a house with two parents. While they're still together, my dad smoked Parliaments and my mom smoked Winstons. And there's just smoke in the house. Yeah, I know. She was letting him rip. She was really letting him rip, for real, all the way up until I was like nine. And then she just quit cold turkey. But I think that they had both, I think they both smoked since like 14. And man, it just smelled like fucking smoke my entire childhood. And that obviously wasn't good for me.

• 1:20:44Amanda Dobbins?

  No.

• 1:20:45Sean Fennessey?

  So I don't really believe in that. That being said, you know, people look cool smoking. What are we gonna do?

• 1:20:49Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:20:49Sean Fennessey?

  This is life.

• 1:20:50Amanda Dobbins?

  I went to a party recently where it was just smoking indoors, bouquets of cigarettes everywhere.

• 1:20:56Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah.

• 1:20:57Amanda Dobbins?

  It was, it was fun.

• 1:21:00Sean Fennessey?

  Why are we talking about this? Sean Penn?

• 1:21:01Amanda Dobbins?

  Sean Penn, I do think he'll win.

• 1:21:02Sean Fennessey?

  Did you make your, you make your picks?

• 1:21:04Amanda Dobbins?

  Oh, I will win Sean Penn, should win Benicio de Toro.

• 1:21:07Sean Fennessey?

  You're, you're still on that train.

• 1:21:08Amanda Dobbins?

  Listen.

• 1:21:08Sean Fennessey?

  Is there any chance it happens?

• 1:21:10Amanda Dobbins?

  I don't think so.

• 1:21:11Sean Fennessey?

  Okay.

• 1:21:12Amanda Dobbins?

  But I, that makes it all the more special to me.

• 1:21:16Sean Fennessey?

  If Benicio wins even more so, I'm like, wow, one battle is in a really prime position. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. There's nothing better than having friends who support whatever you're into, like rewatching a director's entire catalog in the lead up to their latest release. And like those friends, State Farm is there to help you feel supported by helping you choose the coverage you need. With so many coverage options, it's nice knowing you have help finding what fits for you. So you can check coverage off the list and spend more time debating movie rankings. Go online at statefarm.com or use the easily accessible app to get help from one of their local agents. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. This episode is brought to you by the Autograph Journey Credit Card from Wells Fargo. The Autograph Journey Credit Card from Wells Fargo is built for travel. You can earn rewards wherever you book, your favorite hotel site, your go to airline and more.

• 1:22:02Sean Fennessey?

  You get five times points with hotels, four times with airlines, three times on restaurants and other travel and one point on other purchases. Whether it's a big vacation or a quick getaway from booking your stay to that first meal when you arrive, you're turning your trips into rewards with the Autograph Journey Credit Card from Wells Fargo. Learn more at wellsfargo.com/autographjourney. Terms apply.

• 1:22:23Sean Fennessey?

  Let's go to another stumper. Best actress in a supporting role. The nominees are Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value, Inga Ibsdard-Lilias for Sentimental Value, Amy Madigan for Weapons, Wunmi Musaku for Sinners, and Tiana Taylor for One Battle After Another.

• 1:22:39Amanda Dobbins?

  This is the one that I wrote in right before we started recording. This is what I was texting you stressed about last night. This is what I've been texting friends and loves ones.

• 1:22:47Sean Fennessey?

  You're flummoxed.

• 1:22:48Amanda Dobbins?

  Did a little like pre bedtime council with my husband Zach, who talked me off the ledge of what was a bad pick, though, if it's then right. I'm gonna be mad at myself.

• 1:23:03Amanda Dobbins?

  Ultimately, I was trying to decide between Amy Madigan and Wunmi Musaku. Amy Madigan for Weapons, Wunmi Musaku for Sinners. There is a tradition, there is a precedent, as you have previously noted, of someone winning in Best Supporting Actress as the only nominee for their film, which Amy Madigan is for once.

• 1:23:22Sean Fennessey?

  Nine times this has happened. It's very rare for anyone to win an acting award when they're the sole nominee from their film.

• 1:23:30Amanda Dobbins?

  Right. She also has the SAG bump and gave a great speech at SAG and is beloved. I have maintained that I don't think international voters care about Field of Dreams and the Amy Madigan Hollywood legacy in the way that we do. But I also, I had a gut instinct like last week. I was like, I think it's gonna be Wunmi Musaku. I just, and that is like pure, that's how I make decisions at some point. I'm going with what I feel. So I'm going with Wunmi Musaku.

• 1:24:07Sean Fennessey?

  What is your should win?

• 1:24:08Amanda Dobbins?

  I thought Inga Ibsdard-Lilias was very good in Sentimental Value.

• 1:24:11Sean Fennessey?

  Fucking hell, yeah. Love to hear that. That's really nice. Will win, I chose Amy Madigan.

• 1:24:16Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay. I get it.

• 1:24:17Sean Fennessey?

  Here's my logic.

• 1:24:18Amanda Dobbins?

  I get it.

• 1:24:19Sean Fennessey?

  Here's my, and I don't fucking know. I don't fucking, this is gonna be the first big award they give out.

• 1:24:23Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:24:23Sean Fennessey?

  And I'm gonna be like, alright, well, that happens. Elf fanning.

• 1:24:26Amanda Dobbins?

  When we were talking about it last night, you were like, I just had to make a decision and move on.

• 1:24:29Sean Fennessey?

  That's what I did.

• 1:24:29Amanda Dobbins?

  Like, I had to let it go.

• 1:24:30Sean Fennessey?

  That is what I did. I, I thought about it very clearly this way. There has been only one race this entire award season in which Amy Madigan, Tiana Taylor, and Winmi Misako have gone against each other, and that is SAG. And Amy Madigan won SAG.

• 1:24:44Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:24:45Sean Fennessey?

  That's it. SAG isn't always predictive. I'm not saying that's the only reason she's winning. I just kind of feel like she's gonna win. I told this story to Bill the other day. I was sitting in a movie theater and Telluride with an award strategist. We're just chatting about what's gonna, the next six months gonna be like. And I turned to the person and I was like, I feel like there's a great campaign to be run for Amy Madigan. I feel like she's insanely memorable in that movie. She is an actor with a huge history. She'll be great at Q and As because she's got a great personality and she's got a lot of cool movies to talk about in her career. She's a very, um, principled person and a thoughtful person, but she also feels like a normal person. She doesn't feel like a star. This category likes that. So I'm just going with it.

• 1:25:25Amanda Dobbins?

  You know, you've been consistent on it since the very beginning and I respect that. I-

• 1:25:31Sean Fennessey?

  You could definitely be right. I don't feel confident at all.

• 1:25:33Amanda Dobbins?

  I, I don't feel confident at all either, but I just have a vibe.

• 1:25:39Sean Fennessey?

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:25:39Amanda Dobbins?

  And then, it's interesting if we disagree, not that we planned it, but you know?

• 1:25:45Sean Fennessey?

  Interesting test of this too, and we've talked about the villain thing and how villains often win in the supporting actor category.

• 1:25:49Amanda Dobbins?

  Is this the first time we don't have the same pick?

• 1:25:51Sean Fennessey?

  I think it is.

• 1:25:51Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 1:25:52Sean Fennessey?

  Isn't that crazy?

• 1:25:52Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:25:53Sean Fennessey?

  It's probably good. Um, I think most people can remember the name of Amy Madigan's character in this movie, which is Aunt Gladys.

• 1:26:01Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 1:26:02Sean Fennessey?

  I don't know if the same could be said for Winmi Misako's character. I think it could be said for Tiana Taylor's character, in part because her name is so unusual for Fiddy of Beverly Hills. Maybe they can remember Annie, maybe not, you know? Obviously, Sinners is the much more popular of all of the movies that we're talking about. But that's another thing where it's just like Aunt Gladys kind of went into the lexicon a little bit. This is all circumstantial. I'm just kind of throwing things out there.

• 1:26:22Amanda Dobbins?

  Were you alerted, as I was, um, to the- I guess HBO Brazil to the Brazil specific promotional video that Tania Maria, AKA Donia Sebastiana from The Secret Agent did in which she is like, she, you know, she does the Billy Crystal thing. She's like juxtaposed into various films.

• 1:26:43Sean Fennessey?

  Yes.

• 1:26:44Amanda Dobbins?

  And she's, she's like in Sinners as Jack O'Connell for a while, which is really funny. It's also, it's all in Portuguese. And to my knowledge, no one has translated it.

• 1:26:53Sean Fennessey?

  So I haven't seen it.

• 1:26:54Amanda Dobbins?

  Once again, just vibing. And then at the end, she is, she is on Gladys. So, and then she's rapping Marty Supreme ping pong balls.

• 1:27:03Sean Fennessey?

  Her, her as Aunt Gladys is very memorable. Um, my should win is Inga as well.

• 1:27:07Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah. Last night, last night I was like, Zach, what about Inga? And he was like, she hasn't won a single thing.

• 1:27:13Sean Fennessey?

  I, I was predicting Inga a couple of months ago, and I have moved way off of that. That could be actually the Marcia Gay Harden thing where they're like, oh,

• 1:27:23Amanda Dobbins?

  Right. And where is the sentimental value? You know, it's, it's so powerful nominees wise.

• 1:27:29Sean Fennessey?

  It could go over nine. I mean, that's, that's a hundred percent in play, you know? If it, if it does, if Secret Agent wins international, it could go over nine. Okay. Let's go back to some normalcy. Best actress in a leading role. The nominees are Jessie Buckley for Hamnet, Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, Kate Hudson for Song Song Blue, Renata Ryan's vote for Sentimental Value, and Emma Stone for Begonha. Will win.

• 1:27:54Amanda Dobbins?

  The bride herself.

• 1:27:54Sean Fennessey?

  Jessie Buckley in Hamnet. And here she comes. Uh, should win. I wrote down Emma Stone and then just went, fuck it, Jessie Buckley. Like, I don't know. Jessie Buckley, in the last 40 minutes, knocked me out. I'm not immune to it. I, I said it when you, we talked, after you came back from Venice, I was like, look, man, this movie, I have some notes about this movie, but I really liked it. And I liked it because I walked out of the last 40 minutes feeling crushed, overwhelmed by what she pulls off in the movie. So.

• 1:28:23Amanda Dobbins?

  And not just in the last 40 minutes, in that the birth scene of the twins.

• 1:28:27Sean Fennessey?

  Yep.

• 1:28:28Amanda Dobbins?

  I think about it all the time. She is astonishing. She really is. She's very good in this.

• 1:28:32Sean Fennessey?

  And you have the same?

• 1:28:33Amanda Dobbins?

  I have will win Jessie Buckley, should win Rose Byrne.

• 1:28:37Amanda Dobbins?

  Rose Byrne is doing a different but similar thing in like in perfect and electrifying detail and the scene that like the support group and the like it is our fault it's our fault scene and where she's just shoving cake in her mouth is unbelievable she like goes for it and it's all the therapy scenes with Conan speaking of

• 1:29:01Sean Fennessey?

  She's fantastic.

• 1:29:02Amanda Dobbins?

  Amazing. It's an amazing movie that she carries on her shoulders.

• 1:29:07Sean Fennessey?

  I won't quibble. This is another one of those like this this category and the next category is a sign of the strength of this year that there were a lot of good movies this year and that this is a I would say an unusual equality Oscar slate.

• 1:29:20Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:29:20Sean Fennessey?

  Some like I'm not so sure about that's you know the F1's over it was just an accident. Like you know, could have could have done a little better, but it's a very good slate. Okay, now for the fucking barn burner.

• 1:29:30Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 1:29:31Sean Fennessey?

  This is like the category of my life. This is like I've never had more of a weird feeling about a category.

• 1:29:38Amanda Dobbins?

  And you've been crunching numbers?

• 1:29:40Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah, there's a lot of data to think about. There's a lot of strategy to go into this and then the vibe shift plays a big part in this and I don't know whether this will be predictive of the rest of the night or not, but I I'm very eager to talk about it with you. So it is best actor in a leading role. The nominees are Timothy Chalamet in Marty Supreme, Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another, Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon, Michael B. Jordan for Sinners and Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent.

• 1:30:06Amanda Dobbins?

  Mm hmm. It's my turn.

• 1:30:07Sean Fennessey?

  Go.

• 1:30:08Amanda Dobbins?

  Will win.

• 1:30:11Amanda Dobbins?

  Michael B. Jordan.

• 1:30:12Sean Fennessey?

  Okay.

• 1:30:12Amanda Dobbins?

  Sinners.

• 1:30:13Sean Fennessey?

  Okay.

• 1:30:13Amanda Dobbins?

  Should win Timothy Chalamet, Marty Supreme, and I love opera and ballet. I love them.

• 1:30:19Sean Fennessey?

  I am picking Michael B. Jordan. I don't feel good about it.

• 1:30:23Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 1:30:24Sean Fennessey?

  This is we're kind of in like, don't be a coward, predict F1 territory here because I have got like a really weird feeling that either Leo or Wagner Moura is gonna win. Really weird.

• 1:30:34Amanda Dobbins?

  I I was doing this myself because as you know, I've been on the Wagner Moura this it's Wagner Moura's time, you know, fear and respect Brazil.

• 1:30:44Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah.

• 1:30:44Amanda Dobbins?

  For months and there is an interpretation where Timmy wins the first few and then you have the BAFTAs. I don't remember the actor's name and I swear.

• 1:30:56Sean Fennessey?

  Robert Aramayo.

• 1:30:57Amanda Dobbins?

  And then the Michael B. Jordan surprise at SAG. And you think, okay, so this is, this is wide open. And then maybe Wagner Mora and the international vote.

• 1:31:09Sean Fennessey?

  Okay, here's.

• 1:31:09Amanda Dobbins?

  Comes through.

• 1:31:11Sean Fennessey?

  The case against Wagner Mora there is that Wagner Mora was not even shortlisted for the BAFTA.

• 1:31:15Amanda Dobbins?

  I agree.

• 1:31:16Sean Fennessey?

  I think there is a, there is a prevailing theory. I talked to two different people about this yesterday. There is a theory. Unprovable that Leo is in second place at BAFTA. And that the case for Leo.

• 1:31:29Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 1:31:31Sean Fennessey?

  Who has not been campaigning as much in the last couple of weeks.

• 1:31:33Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah, that's because he's filming a movie.

• 1:31:35Sean Fennessey?

  Yes, which I'm very grateful for.

• 1:31:37Amanda Dobbins?

  With Martin Scorsese and Jennifer Lawrence.

• 1:31:39Sean Fennessey?

  That there's a weird thing here where like, no one's talking about this, but that he, Leo is Leo. He's very understood to be great. You know, the Academy for years kind of gave him the stiff arm, but that this is a bit of a culmination. And then there's two things to note here. One is that BAFTA is usually the bellwether. They've matched on best actor nine out of the past 10 years. So the Robert Aramayo win really throws this thing into a state of disrepair. SAG also, and that is where the Michael B. Jordan prediction comes. If not for that SAG win, no one would be predicting him to win. But SAG has been off in actor and actress in three out of the last six years. SAG is just not super predictive. We just saw last year, Demi Moore and Timothy Chalamet.

• 1:32:22Amanda Dobbins?

  That's right.

• 1:32:23Sean Fennessey?

  Won best actor and best actress, and they both lost at the Academy Awards.

• 1:32:26Amanda Dobbins?

  I agree with you, and I was trying to talk myself out of this. And then also, by the way, so I, I am picking Michael B. Jordan. So I'm picking a Sinner's win in best actor and best supporting actress.

• 1:32:38Sean Fennessey?

  You are.

• 1:32:38Amanda Dobbins?

  So then I, I need to start doing some math. And does that affect any of my other picks? So I, I agree with you that I have. A lot of like, I'm, I'm not sure, but I was talking to a friend of ours last night and just like, hey, who do you think is going to win? And they also said Michael B. Because this SAG moment was perfectly timed in the middle of voting.

• 1:33:03Sean Fennessey?

  It was.

• 1:33:04Amanda Dobbins?

  And what had that great viral moment of surprise. And in the room, you could just feel people being like excited for something new that they didn't expect and also excited for him. And then, as my friend said, he wears it so well.

• 1:33:17Sean Fennessey?

  Yes.

• 1:33:18Amanda Dobbins?

  He just, and it was an amazing speech and, and, and natural and heartfelt and still a movie star. And it just kind of like clicked into place. And there was this moment of like, oh, why isn't Michael B. Jordan, the frontrunner for best actor? And

• 1:33:36Sean Fennessey?

  I just, I don't know. Okay.

• 1:33:39Amanda Dobbins?

  When do people vote is a real question. Did people vote the first week, the second week?

• 1:33:43Sean Fennessey?

  I don't know. I think there's a couple of things to take into consideration here, some of which is a little bit unseemly, but I'm just going to talk through it.

• 1:33:49Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:33:50Sean Fennessey?

  One, Michael B. Jordan is a classical kind of extremely well-liked Hollywood person who's been involved since he was a young kid. And we've watched him grow up in television and movies. He's a legitimate star.

• 1:34:03Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:34:03Sean Fennessey?

  Like, he opens movies. People really like seeing him. He also is a classical star in that we don't know a lot about him. He has done an amazing job of managing his persona and just basically showing up for the movies. And occasionally when he talks about what he likes, it's like, I like anime. Like, it's kind of harmless. And so, all of that is going for him. And you've got a lot of people who have interacted. I was with some people over the last few days who have like interacted with him a lot over the years and are like, he's a good guy. I like him.

• 1:34:30Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:34:31Sean Fennessey?

  That movie is on his shoulders. He's giving two performances, right? There's all those things. On the flip side, I don't know what the International Academy thinks of Sinners. And I, I think this is, to your point about having two acting wins and maybe more, plus a screenplay win, this is a movie that's going to have to play for the new Academy in a way that I'm not sure if it will. It might.

• 1:34:51Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:34:51Sean Fennessey?

  It very well might. We just don't know.

• 1:34:53Amanda Dobbins?

  But the other thing there is, okay, if they're not going for Michael B. Jordan, is the vote splitting between Wagner Moura, Leonardo DiCaprio, Chalamet, like the

• 1:35:04Sean Fennessey?

  There's some harebrained thinking out there that Chalamet, who still has a lot of supporters.

• 1:35:09Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:35:09Sean Fennessey?

  And, and BJ would split and that that would be the pathway for a Wagner or for a Leo to climb up. I think that's I almost did it, man. I almost, almost, I almost, I almost picked Leo. And I know I've been kind of wish casting that throughout the year.

• 1:35:23Amanda Dobbins?

  I would be elated if Leo won. I would feel for Michael B. Jordan as well because that, the, the thing you were talking about at the beginning of this, like this is about emotions. And Michael B. onstage at SAG felt so good.

• 1:35:36Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah, I agree. I agree.

• 1:35:37Amanda Dobbins?

  And for all of the reason you just said, and I do, and I do think that that has weight. And so I do also think that if, if Leo wins, I would feel sad because the Michael B. Jordan thing would, like, would be so special.

• 1:35:50Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah.

• 1:35:50Amanda Dobbins?

  That said, Leo is unbelievable in one battle after another.

• 1:35:55Sean Fennessey?

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:35:55Amanda Dobbins?

  He is so, he is funny. It's so emotional. The scene at the end, I, and, and deserving an amazing actor and, you know, like, the only, the, the true only movie star we have left. So I'd be good with it. I don't know.

• 1:36:10Sean Fennessey?

  Let's talk about the Timmy fallout a little bit.

• 1:36:11Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 1:36:12Sean Fennessey?

  Um.

• 1:36:15Sean Fennessey?

  It's a paradox.

• 1:36:16Amanda Dobbins?

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:36:17Sean Fennessey?

  Marty Supreme is not a hit without the swaggering Marty promo machine.

• 1:36:21Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:36:22Sean Fennessey?

  And Timmy, you know, being a rapper, being stunt-y, talking his shit. And if you don't have that, I don't know that Marty Supreme is quite in this place that it's in right now. And I don't know that Chalamet's career is quite in this place that it's in right now. The backslide of that is that there are some people who think that there is maybe not as much of a divide between Marty and who Timothy Chalamet is.

• 1:36:44Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 1:36:44Sean Fennessey?

  In real life.

• 1:36:45Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:36:45Sean Fennessey?

  And then you compound that with what I think is mostly internet bullshit, but is like something that did happen, which was the comments about the ballet and the, and opera.

• 1:36:55Amanda Dobbins?

  Right.

• 1:36:55Sean Fennessey?

  Which happened earlier this week and really only took off on Thursday after Oscar voting closed.

• 1:37:02Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 1:37:03Sean Fennessey?

  But has set off a kind of internet firestorm. I don't know how much of a real firestorm that is, but all the Oscar voters I've talked to in the last week were like, they wanted to talk about that.

• 1:37:12Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:37:14Sean Fennessey?

  I thought those comments were like, maybe poorly phrased, but basically true and understandable, what he was trying to communicate. That being said, if you're in the world of the ballet or opera, I understand that you have certain sensitivities to how your work is characterized. I love the ballet, so I don't want it to be denigrated in any way. But it's not so much what he said, I thought, but just how people feel about him. That's what that's what that indicates.

• 1:37:39Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah, I mean, the comments themselves, I think, were poorly phrased, or a true thing phrased in an unappealing way, which, who could relate to it more than me? But, so, I get it, and I'm sure he regrets it.

• 1:37:57Sean Fennessey?

  Your energy.

• 1:37:58Amanda Dobbins?

  Or maybe he doesn't. But like, he's not wrong, and he was talking about it in the context of, like, going to theaters and wanting to make art that is still commercially viable, which opera and ballet are less so for a number of reasons, which aren't his fault. And I also love the ballet and opera, and we are Met Opera streaming subscribers in my home. So how about that? Thank you to my dad for that Christmas gift.

• 1:38:26Sean Fennessey?

  Great.

• 1:38:26Amanda Dobbins?

  But I do think that, I don't know how closely, and I hope not at all closely, you followed the Justin Baldoni Blake Lively ongoing circus.

• 1:38:39Sean Fennessey?

  Kind of checked out after a while.

• 1:38:40Amanda Dobbins?

  I think that's wise. I think they should have checked out long ago. But one of the things that was revealed, and one of the major points of contention was, you know, kind of, who was hired to start a campaign against her, and how much of that campaign was professional and seated, and then how much of it was just, how much was the seeding versus how much was just people waiting on the internet to get their takes off against Blake Lively?

• 1:39:05Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah.

• 1:39:05Amanda Dobbins?

  And I think the answer ultimately, and again, no one sue me, this is my interpretation of an ongoing legal case, is that it was a little bit of both. But that there were a lot of people waiting who don't like Blake Lively for reasons valid and and strange, both. And and they had their memes ready. And it feels like that for Timmy as well, where it's like, oh, we found something that we can really, we can start unleashing everything.

• 1:39:32Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah. And as soon as you get to the mountaintop, that's when they start taking you down. There's definitely something going on there. Um, I don't know. I'm from New York. His energy is very, very notable to me. I like it. I've always liked it. You know?

• 1:39:44Amanda Dobbins?

  It it works on me from beginning to end. I just, it's where I am. I'm in the bag for for Timmy Chalamet, and that's fine. You don't have to be.

• 1:39:53Sean Fennessey?

  There's, I still think there's a chance he wins. He's still running at like 35%. Like, it's not like he's not going to get any votes. Um, this is not, I think that the thing, the other thing that goes against him, of course, is that he's a young guy, and young guys don't usually win. And MBJ is just now crossing the threshold of when it's like, okay, this is when a person who's been in the industry for a while usually starts to win. One important note here. In the past five years, there's been a big trend where leads match with Best Picture winners. Four of the five past years, there's been a Best Actor or Best Actress lead winner that has been matched with Best Picture. Now, it doesn't have to happen, but it being more common, you're kind of, you're Killian Murphy

• 1:40:31Sean Fennessey?

  and Oppenheimer sort of wins, or Michelle Yeoh and everything, everyone's. MBJ and what that means for sinners, feel, it feels tied, and yet I still predicted MBJ. And now we will talk about Best Picture. Are you ready?

• 1:40:48Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 1:40:49Sean Fennessey?

  Okay. Let's read the nominees for Best Picture for hopefully the last time. Best Picture, Begonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamlet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, and Train Dreams. I believe it's your turn.

• 1:41:06Amanda Dobbins?

  Will win one battle after another and should win my favorite film of last year, one battle after another.

• 1:41:13Sean Fennessey?

  I agree. I will win one battle.

• 1:41:15Amanda Dobbins?

  But you've brought up the essential point and I predicted, so the only category in which we disagree, we have our picks are 23 for 24.

• 1:41:25Sean Fennessey?

  Wow.

• 1:41:26Amanda Dobbins?

  And all it is.

• 1:41:27Sean Fennessey?

  Is supporting actress.

• 1:41:28Amanda Dobbins?

  Is that right? Did we match on the shorts too?

• 1:41:30Speaker 05

  I believe so.

• 1:41:31Amanda Dobbins?

  Okay.

• 1:41:32Sean Fennessey?

  Unbelievable.

• 1:41:33Amanda Dobbins?

  Then, and we don't, we don't consult. I guess people are, we do it in separate docs.

• 1:41:38Sean Fennessey?

  Should I just have a little fucking gumption and change Michael B. Jordan?

• 1:41:41Amanda Dobbins?

  No.

• 1:41:42Sean Fennessey?

  Because that's the one race, that's the one race that to me is, it should be studied anthropologically. Because it's a great, we didn't even, we barely mentioned Ethan Hawke.

• 1:41:51Amanda Dobbins?

  Right.

• 1:41:52Sean Fennessey?

  But it's a great collection of performances. It's old, young, new, international blockbuster, small, arthouse film. It's the, it's the gamut.

• 1:42:01Amanda Dobbins?

  Mm hmm.

• 1:42:04Sean Fennessey?

  Okay.

• 1:42:04Amanda Dobbins?

  And they'll never release the vote tallies.

• 1:42:07Sean Fennessey?

  All right. Here's, here's, here's a ton of information for you about this.

• 1:42:10Amanda Dobbins?

  Here's the thing is, so we are 23 for 24.

• 1:42:12Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah.

• 1:42:12Amanda Dobbins?

  And the one difference, I also, I picked Winmi Masaku, Four Sinners.

• 1:42:18Sean Fennessey?

  Yep.

• 1:42:18Amanda Dobbins?

  So I have five sinners wins, I think, when you asked me.

• 1:42:21Sean Fennessey?

  You do.

• 1:42:22Amanda Dobbins?

  And yet I went with one battle. So when I, what I was saying about.

• 1:42:26Sean Fennessey?

  Casting.

• 1:42:27Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 1:42:27Sean Fennessey?

  Score. Screenplay. Supporting actress and actor.

• 1:42:32Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 1:42:32Sean Fennessey?

  And you, for one battle, now currently have director, screenplay, picture, cinematography.

• 1:42:40Amanda Dobbins?

  Editing, supporting actor.

• 1:42:42Sean Fennessey?

  Supporting actor.

• 1:42:43Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:42:43Sean Fennessey?

  Six to five.

• 1:42:44Amanda Dobbins?

  So six to five, which is more of a even split than we've seen historically the past few years. So again, we haven't really had this two people, two films in the race. It's been Oppenheimer and Everything Everywhere and Denora from the very beginning. But yeah, I have five and six and I have more acting nominees. I have, you know, more above the line, or at least in the, in the movie winners. For sinners. So my math doesn't add up.

• 1:43:19Sean Fennessey?

  Well, it does.

• 1:43:20Amanda Dobbins?

  But it does.

• 1:43:21Sean Fennessey?

  One battle wins more films and one battle gets an acting award.

• 1:43:23Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:43:24Sean Fennessey?

  Which is usually, that's usually part of the package. Um, let me just give you some, some, some data points here. Um.

• 1:43:34Sean Fennessey?

  One battle after another's dominance across the precursors. Here's everything it's won. You ready?

• 1:43:38Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:43:39Sean Fennessey?

  PGA, DGA, WGA, Ace Eddie for the editors, ASC for the cinematographers, costume design for contemporary film, makeup for contemporary film, international awards, BAFTA, Caesar, the Australian Academy, televised award shows, Critics' Choice, Golden Globes, the Critics' trifecta, Los Angeles Film Critics, New York Film Critics Circle, National Film Critics Society.

• 1:44:05Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:44:06Sean Fennessey?

  That's everything.

• 1:44:07Amanda Dobbins?

  Yes.

• 1:44:07Sean Fennessey?

  The only prize that it doesn't have is Best Ensemble. That's the only prize at SAG. That's everything.

• 1:44:14Amanda Dobbins?

  Mm hmm.

• 1:44:14Sean Fennessey?

  This is the most dominant frontrunner in the history of the Academy Awards. If it doesn't win, and it might not win.

• 1:44:22Amanda Dobbins?

  It might not win.

• 1:44:23Sean Fennessey?

  It is 100% possible that Sinners could win.

• 1:44:26Amanda Dobbins?

  But so now we talk about the vibe shift.

• 1:44:27Sean Fennessey?

  Yes.

• 1:44:28Amanda Dobbins?

  And I don't even think vibe shift is totally fair because Sinners has also been in the running, I mean, since April, much, much longer, just because it's been out for longer.

• 1:44:42Sean Fennessey?

  I said in our episode in April of 2025, this movie is getting at least 10 nominations.

• 1:44:46Amanda Dobbins?

  Right. And it's been loved. It's rewarded at every single award ceremony in one way or another. It has been a part of the discourse and there has just been this sense of, we don't know, we don't know, it could go either way. And that happened before SAG, which was a real boost to Sinners and just also Sinners prominent on screen and Sinners dominant in an awards setting. So, and in the middle of Oscar voting. So my best rationalization for this was that the vibe shift is what pushes Michael B. Jordan.

• 1:45:25Sean Fennessey?

  Mm hmm.

• 1:45:25Amanda Dobbins?

  And then people are like, I haven't been sure what to do. This race has been wide open. I'm not passionate about Timothy Chalamet or whatever. So Michael B. and then the one battle is the best picture. And so instead of like a best picture, best director split, it's a best picture, best actor split. I don't know. Again,

• 1:45:45Sean Fennessey?

  I fully agree with you. I mean, that was how I rationalized it. And that something had, something strong had to burble up for Sinners because of how beloved it is. And this is the strongest thing that could burble up.

• 1:45:56Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:45:56Sean Fennessey?

  This is the thing where Leo hasn't really been competing. You know, he hasn't been winning anything. And so that was a place where One Battle was not strong. And that was a place where Sinners could be much stronger. Maybe this is cope from a couple of One Battle fans who just can't see the Sinners wave.

• 1:46:15Amanda Dobbins?

  It could be.

• 1:46:16Sean Fennessey?

  About to crash down on Sunday night.

• 1:46:17Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah, but also like the, the list that you just read of precursors. Like, we have to be real. Like, that is, that's, we're two Oscar nerds. Like, we can only, we can only work within the bounds of what we're seeing.

• 1:46:34Sean Fennessey?

  That's why it's this battle between precedent and vibes. That's the, that is the question that is happening. It's been very exciting for the race. Here's, this is gonna sound like it's a strike in favor of One Battle, but it's actually a strike against it, right? This is a really, really, really cool data point if our predictions here hold. If One Battle after another wins Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing, and Cinematography, it will be the first time that that quintet of awards has gone to one film since Schindler's List. Before that, Dances with Wolves did it in 1990. The Last Emperor did it in 1987, and Gandhi did it in 1982. Before that, you have to go all the way back to Gigi in 1961, when all five of those awards happened.

• 1:47:20Sean Fennessey?

  But even then, there was a color category and a black and white category for cinematography. Gigi won for color, and the Defiant ones won for black and white. Now, there's a wrinkle here. If Sean Penn does win, and you tack on an acting award on top of that five, the only film in the history of the Oscars to do that is Gandhi.

• 1:47:41Amanda Dobbins?

  Oh.

• 1:47:42Sean Fennessey?

  That's it.

• 1:47:45Amanda Dobbins?

  Schindler's List didn't win a single acting award?

• 1:47:46Sean Fennessey?

  It did not. Ralph Fiennes and Liam Neeson did not win.

• 1:47:51Amanda Dobbins?

  Give Ralph Fiennes an Oscar.

• 1:47:53Sean Fennessey?

  That, I mean, that is true Oscar history.

• 1:47:56Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:47:57Sean Fennessey?

  To have that collection of six prizes, because so many times over the years, you have, one, cinematography is a very volatile award where it frequently doesn't go to the best picture winner.

• 1:48:09Sean Fennessey?

  The acting awards are not always so closely associated historically with best picture winners. They are much more so now, but they used to be more like spectacle event films that weren't prized for their performance. They were prized for their, the scope of their stories. There's this, you know, and One Battle and Sinners are both a nice kind of convergence of those. Those are big scale movies that have great performances in them. So, I don't know. First of all, I love this, that there's something like this can happen. It's so exciting as somebody who cares about this stuff so much. But also, that's a, that's a note against One Battle, that the Academy very rarely does this.

• 1:48:40Amanda Dobbins?

  It's true, though, when you were just doing the five nominees and Schindler's List and Spielberg was the last example. I was like, that just, that's symmetrical, right? That is, and you know, they obviously are friends. We saw the first Q and A between them when we saw one battle after another at the DGAs. They, you know, they're the saviors of TCM. Like, it makes sense that he would be in that league. I don't know. What I've been telling myself is that this is a wacky Oscars year, but it's wacky in the acting categories and unpredictable in the acting categories.

• 1:49:20Amanda Dobbins?

  And which it still may be, which I think, which it still is, but that best picture has been decided for a while, even though we've been trying to keep it spicy.

• 1:49:30Amanda Dobbins?

  That's how I'm justifying it.

• 1:49:31Sean Fennessey?

  I think you're right. This is easily the closest we've ever matched in our picks. The fact that we matched on all three shorts, the fact that we didn't... I didn't do a lot of zagging here. I don't feel good about the MBJ pick, even though I think all the logic that we talked through makes sense. Supporting actress, if I get it wrong, I can live with that. You know, that's just a

• 1:49:51Amanda Dobbins?

  Same.

• 1:49:51Sean Fennessey?

  It's been a weird race. We barely even talked about Tiana Taylor. If she was the first person to go up on stage on Oscar night, I wouldn't be surprised either.

• 1:49:58Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah.

• 1:49:59Sean Fennessey?

  That's just a, that's a wild category. 23 of 24 for us, though, man. I mean, are we just too similar? Are we just coming, are we sharing a hive mind?

• 1:50:10Amanda Dobbins?

  I mean, yes, we definitely spend way too much time together. Definitely talk about things too much. I, I do, I wonder if some of it is that

• 1:50:23Sean Fennessey?

  There's just two movies.

• 1:50:24Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah, and two movies we both like.

• 1:50:27Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah, I've got 10 awards going to two movies and you've got 11 awards going to two movies.

• 1:50:32Amanda Dobbins?

  Marty Supreme blanked in my predictions.

• 1:50:35Sean Fennessey?

  Me as well.

• 1:50:36Amanda Dobbins?

  Didn't deserve it.

• 1:50:39Sean Fennessey?

  Secret Agent also blanked in my predictions.

• 1:50:41Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah, really tough, didn't deserve it.

• 1:50:43Sean Fennessey?

  Frankenstein winner of three awards? Two awards?

• 1:50:46Amanda Dobbins?

  Three, makeup, production and costume. It's their choice, not ours. We don't vote.

• 1:50:53Sean Fennessey?

  Is it weird to feel confident and not confident at the same time? What do you call that?

• 1:50:57Amanda Dobbins?

  I would call that my daily existence. So, welcome.

• 1:51:01Sean Fennessey?

  How intriguing.

• 1:51:01Amanda Dobbins?

  How does it feel?

• 1:51:02Sean Fennessey?

  When will you show us the real you?

• 1:51:04Amanda Dobbins?

  Never.

• 1:51:06Sean Fennessey?

  One of these days, I'm gonna get it out. Get it out and show the world. Uh, any closing thoughts?

• 1:51:13Amanda Dobbins?

  I'm looking forward to it.

• 1:51:14Sean Fennessey?

  Me too.

• 1:51:15Amanda Dobbins?

  I'm ready. I love watching the Oscars.

• 1:51:16Sean Fennessey?

  Me too. I'm very excited for the show. I hope it's a great show. Thank you to everyone who's been listening and following along with us for this very long, protracted award season.

• 1:51:25Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah, make it earlier, next year.

• 1:51:26Sean Fennessey?

  Yeah, please.

• 1:51:27Amanda Dobbins?

  Earlier, February. Let's go.

• 1:51:29Sean Fennessey?

  Thank you to Jack Sanders for his work on this episode and his coverage as our producer throughout this award season. Thanks to Lucas Cavanagh for production support. On Sunday night, we will see you before the Academy Awards. 3pm PT, 6pm ET, tune in. We'll talk about this all over again.

• 1:51:46Amanda Dobbins?

  Yeah, and just a reminder, the Oscars start at 4pm Pacific, 7pm Eastern. You're welcome, ABC.

• 1:51:56Sean Fennessey?

  And we will come to you immediately after the telecast. Even if it's six hours long, we will be here in studio, recapping the entire show, live on Netflix.

• 1:52:06Sean Fennessey?

  We'll see you then.

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