Office Hours: Online Sales for EVs, Should I Take A Voluntary Severance Package? And Unconditional Love

Scott takes a question about e-commerce for electric vehicles. He then offers advice about taking severance before you’ve officially been laid off and ends with some reflections on unconditional love. Music: https://www.davidcuttermusic.com / @dcuttermusic Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:01Scott Galloway?

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• 0:48Speaker 01

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• 1:26Scott Galloway?

  Welcome back to the Prof G Pod's Office Hours. This is the part of the show where we answer your questions about business, big tech, entrepreneurship, and whatever else is on your mind. If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to [email protected]. Again, that's [email protected]. I have not seen or read these questions. First question.

• 1:45Speaker 02

  Hi Prof G, this is Indrajeet from Kuwait. I have a question related to online car sales. As you know, most of the legacy brands and almost all of the new startups, like Rivian or Lucid, are offering car sales completely online, either through an e-commerce store or for placing a car for future production. My question is, what percentage of cars do you think in the year 2023 will be sold 100% online by the legacy brands?

• 2:21Speaker 02

  And I have a related question. In the year 2025, which brand do you think will dominate the US market in terms of electric vehicle sales?

• 2:34Scott Galloway?

  Andaji from Kuwait. Thanks for the question. One of the things I'm excited about living in London, or one of the reasons I'm excited about living in London is I want to spend more time in the Gulf. It's a part of the world I know very little about. I just met the guy who runs the sovereign for Bahrain. He seemed like a really interesting, neat man. I want to go to Bahrain. I'm going to Qatar and Dubai for the World Cup, but I just want to spend more time there and I want to get to know more people from the Gulf. Anyways, ABC reported that in the US, almost 30% of new car sales in 2021 were made online. Before COVID, less than 2% of vehicles were purchased online. And in 2019, Tesla started to only sell online. Now, that's misleading. Why?

• 3:15Scott Galloway?

  I would argue that for the last 10 years, maybe 20, 90% plus of cars have been sold online. What do I mean by that? You've done all of your research, you've done all of your comparison, and you've made the decision online. You've done everything from look at different models, then have them drop cookies on your browser, and then start haunting you about that new Audi Q7 that you want. And finally, you say, okay, I'm going Audi. You go online, you configure the car down to the leather piping on the seats, you know what it costs, you know exactly what you want, you printed it out, you went into your local dealership and said, this is what I want. I've done some research on different sites and I know I should pay between X and Y. So really, the decision was happening online. The actual purchase was happening online. It was just the fulfillment.

• 4:00Scott Galloway?

  And then the exchange of currency or money or filling out the loan paperwork happened in a dealership. And then how do dealers make money online now? Because most of the margin has been starched out. They don't make money selling cars. They make money servicing the car post-purchase because you have to come back. On an inflation-adjusted basis, cars are less expensive and better than they used to be. But the move to distribution or the move away from distribution had to happen. So what do they do now? Companies like Volvo offer subscription purchases, or you can trade in a car. But what they do is they have to compensate the dealership. So if you are living in a certain zip code and you go straight to the dealer or you go straight to the manufacturer, the manufacturer compensates the dealer network.

• 4:43Scott Galloway?

  And it's ended up that dealer networks are stronger than ever in terms of profitability because COVID has resulted. And really strong consumer consumer demand because everybody has money. Anyways, I don't think I think auto dealerships are not long for this world. It'll be like malls. It'll be like movie theaters and that is they won't go out of business. They'll just be far fewer of them. And at some point, why on earth do I have to drive to a fucking dealership? Bring the car to me. I know what I want. And also, why do I have to take my car in to get it repaired? Come to me, drop off another Tesla or Range Rover and then take my car and bring it back fixed with a wax job or whatever. I just, why on earth do you ever have to go to a dealership?

• 5:23Scott Galloway?

  By the way, one of the worst decisions I made in 2021 was having the clam chowder at the Lexus September to Remember event. Oh, my God. Food poisoning à la Go-Go. Not a good idea. I mean, just what was it that made me think that having the clam chowder at a Lexus dealership was a good idea? No, not a good idea. Anyways, the dealership and the automobile industry is a weak point of their brands. It's going to consolidate. They'll start buying back dealerships. In some states, they've actually passed laws where the manufacturer can own the dealership. But I would think over time, you're going to see the actual purchase in addition to the psychological purchase move online.

• 6:05Scott Galloway?

  Rivian and Lucid also sell directly to the consumer online and they have a they have a limited amount of showrooms. Lucid has about 20 showrooms across the country. Rivian, fewer than that. Other big auto brands seem to be following. Suit, the CEO of Ford, Jim Farley announced that their EV sales would go 100% online in the future. Which brand will dominate the US market in EV sales? I don't think they'll dominate, but I think the leader will be Tesla. They make an outstanding car. They have a head start. Tesla now has two thirds share. I think that'll drop below 50%, but they'll still have huge sales because the market will grow so fast. And I think a lot of people will decide that they want a Tesla. I think it's a very strong self-expressive benefit brand.

• 6:45Scott Galloway?

  When you own a Tesla, it just says something about you the same way when you own Adidas or you have a Panerai watch or you go to Wharton. It just says something about you. Some analysts predict that GM will end up pulling ahead of Tesla by 2030. I don't see it. I just don't think they have the brand equity. Why do they believe that? They have an ability to scale at a pace Tesla won't be able to because they have much broader infrastructure in terms of factories and workers. But I just don't think the brand value is there. Next question.

• 7:10Speaker 03

  Hi, Professor G. I'm 34, living in Seattle. I've worked for Amazon for four and a half years, and I'm currently a senior program manager within AWS HR. I'm also one of the employees that received the volunteer release program offer, where you can apply to take a pretty good-sized severance package. In my case, it would last me about five months, max. If I don't take the package by December 5th, I could potentially get laid off with less severance in 2023. Should I take the severance and risk a rocky job market? Or should I wait and see if Amazon axes us in Q1? My gut says I should bail out now, but I could use any and all advice for the outlook of the job market in 2023.

• 7:55Scott Galloway?

  Hello, anonymous from Seattle. So first off, this is a deeply personal decision. And I'm going to provide you or give some input here. But you need to assemble a kitchen cabinet from your spouse or partner to your parents or to other colleagues at Amazon, and get a wisdom of crowds. Something I failed to do as a young man was that I conflated leadership with not listening to other people, that I was such a baller that I could make decisions and then manifest them and make them happen, not realizing the importance of others. It is very hard to read the label from inside of the bottle. So the first thing you're going to do is present the same question to three, four, six people you trust, give them as much detail and color as possible. Now, some of the detail and color you should provide for them is,

• 8:39Scott Galloway?

  what kind of savings do you have? If you're 34, and in five months, you would run out of money. In other words, you don't have money saved up. You don't want to take this risk. And you probably, I would say, you probably want to stay and start looking for another job and wait till you have another job and then maybe leave. Because it sounds like you're on shaky ground right now. If they're offering you a package, that means there's a pretty good chance, if you don't take the package, you're going to be laid off. But I don't even know enough about the odds of that. So the first thing I'd want to assess is, what are the odds, if I stay, that I'll be laid off anyways? What is my current personal, emotional, intellectual, and financial... Prospects of the company. If they're looking to lay off people in your department right now, I would argue

• 9:24Scott Galloway?

  that that is not a growth part of the company and the prospects probably over the short and medium term are not that great. What ties me to this job? Do I have kids and family in Seattle such that if I got a job in the Bay Area at another tech company and there's a greater concentration of tech where you may want to stay? So a lot of this comes down to your personal situation, your personal financial situation, your agility or your willingness to move. All else being equal, I would argue that a firm that is offering packages and is about to give you five months, and if you've been there several years and at your age, you're young, you're at Amazon, that's an amazing emblem, badge to have on your resume. If you think you're looking for a change, if you weren't really happy there, if you

• 10:06Scott Galloway?

  didn't think you had senior level sponsorship, if you're ready maybe to shake it up, this might be an interesting time to take the package and look around and see what else is out there. Having said that, this is a very important decision. Be very sober and honest about questions you ask yourself, but here's the bottom line. You are good enough that you got a job at one of the best firms in the world. What does that mean? It means you are really good. And if it's not Amazon, you are the solution to another firm's problems. So you are highly skilled. If you wouldn't mind, check back with us in three or six months and let us know what you decided. I appreciate the question and again, again, you are very talented.

• 10:51Scott Galloway?

  That is obvious. Thanks for the question. We have one quick break before our final question. Stay with us. Support for the show comes from Superhuman. The pace of modern work can be relentless. You're getting a constant influx of messages from a ton of different apps. You haven't closed all your browser tabs in a year. Everything seems urgent and staying on top of it all feels like an impossible task. Superhuman Go is an AI chat that's always there when you need it, already aware of what you're doing and doesn't ask you to start from zero. Superhuman Go, from the makers of Grammarly, help you be the best version of yourself at work. It handles the repetitive stuff so you can focus on the work. That only you can do. Whether you need to summarize an endless email thread or prep for a meeting that's happening in five minutes,

• 11:35Scott Galloway?

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• 12:04Scott Galloway?

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• 12:49Scott Galloway?

  and other administrative tasks, so you can spend less time managing logistics and more time focused on what's next. Visit upwork.com/profg right now and post your job for free. That's upwork.com/profg to connect with top talent ready to help your business grow. That's U P W O R K dot com slash prof G. Upwork.com slash prof G.

• 13:16Scott Galloway?

  Welcome back. Question number three.

• 13:18Speaker 04

  Hi, Scott. Nate here from Brooklyn. One question for you. Since it's the season of giving and thankfulness, what's one time recently that you've been shown unconditional love? Could be from family or friends or just someone that you trust. Great work and I love the show.

• 13:39Scott Galloway?

  Nate, that's a thoughtful and a generous question.

• 13:44Scott Galloway?

  I think I get that a lot, but I get it in weird and small places. I have a close friend, my buddy Lee from LA. He'll take the time to call and leave this long voicemail about how much, how proud his parents are of me. And the fact that he takes the time to do that, that he thinks of it, is this sort of, you know, kind of unconditional love. I get it in weird ways. I don't know if you call it unconditional love, but my son, we were in Morocco and my, we're all sleeping in a strange place. And my 12-year-old gets night terrors and he got a night terror. And the first thing he screamed out was, you know, dad, dad.

• 14:28Scott Galloway?

  And I went running into his room and, and I wouldn't call that unconditional love, but having sort of, being the go-to in someone's life when they're unconsciously or consciously afraid, is just, you don't want your son to be scared, but it's just such an immensely rewarding feeling to be that person for somebody, that they just reflexively want you when they're scared. And I don't, I guess that's not unconditional love. You know, I'm at a point in my life where I've had so much of that, where there was my mother. I had a lot of people in my life, including my first wife, who demonstrated, I think, more loyalty and grace towards me than sometimes I did towards them. And, but I'm trying to be on the flip side of that.

• 15:11Scott Galloway?

  I'm trying to show more, you know, unconditional concern and affection. And I didn't figure that out until later in life. I saw most relationships, like everything else, as a transaction. And I think I just sort of subconsciously had a scorecard. Was I getting as much out of this relationship as I was giving? And what's really nice, or I think what you want to do as you get older, and I didn't get this until I was in my 40s, is you just make a decision, what kind of son do you want to be? What kind of friend do you want to be? What kind of boyfriend or girlfriend or husband or what do you want to be? And try to just be that person and always be on the plus side of the column. You know, my son was awful the other night. I'm going back to my son.

• 15:56Scott Galloway?

  He was being a jerk. He hadn't eaten, you know, he's my, my, like, my youngest is tough. There's just no getting around it. He's tough. And he was.

• 16:06Scott Galloway?

  Totally out of line, deserved to be punished. His mom was furious at him. He did something where he really knew at the moment he did it, he was really like, knew he'd gone way too far and had screwed up. And heard me coming down the hall and I could tell he was scared, knowing that punishment was coming his way. And I just laid down beside him and said, "Let's just, let's just go to sleep." And I'm trying to do more of that, just to every, at least once a day, express in some way. Regardless of how you behave, regardless of what would be the right parenting thing to do, I'm going to express unconditional love. I'm not going to judge you.

• 16:48Scott Galloway?

  I'm going to shell for the moment, my role as a teacher, or a mentor, or the boss, or your parent, and I'm just going to unconditionally love you. But the headline news here is I got more than my fair share of unconditional love the first five decades of my life. Now for the next several, it's my turn to return it. That's all for this episode. Again, if you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to [email protected]. Our producers are Caroline Chagrin, Claire Miller, and Drew Burrows.

• 17:32Scott Galloway?

  Sammy Resnick is our associate producer. If you like what you heard, please follow, download, and subscribe. Thank you for listening to the Prop G Pod from the Vox Media Podcast Network. We will catch you next week.

• 17:42Speaker 05

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