E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!

Follow the crew: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Follow the bestie guesties: https://twitter.com/bgurley https://twitter.com/phil_hellmuth https://twitter.com/altcap https://twitter.com/jcpolls Show Notes: 0:00 The besties & Phil Hellmuth on Trump's early lead, live betting odds, the Latinx reversal 10:09 Sacks intros political expert Michael Newman on vote tally timing discrepancies, why some states skew a certain way early & more 20:33 Assessing the 180 in the gambling markets & equity markets towards a pro-Trump outcome 24:18 SurveyMonkey Chief Research Officer Jon Cohen joins the show to talk about polling updates from 2016 to 2020, understanding the race so far, electoral college & more 41:51 Biden losing Florida, tax policy, cultural repudiation of the elites in 2020 50:43 Chamath on the stupidity of the establishment, socialism, Democratic ideology for 2024 if Biden loses 55:40 Mid-show predictions, Jason goes off on Trump 1:07:58 What will happen in the time until we have a clear winner, Trump as a middle finger 1:17:55 Brad Gerstner joins the show to talk about stock futures, what the Democrats keep getting wrong - coastal elites losing touch with normal people, rebuking lockdowns 1:38:24 Reviewing the race swing state by swing state 1:47:28 Bill Gurley joins the show to talk about divisiveness, urban/rural rapture & more 1:55:53 Pete Buttigieg as the future of the Democratic Party, Chamath calls out the democratic leaders 2:00:43 Reconciling middle America & the coastal elites, respecting each other's differences, understanding Prop 22 2:11:34 Diagnosing states that flipped from Biden to Trump, anti-business California state propositions failing, union impact on legislation 2:23:01 Senate races, market talk, which Democratic candidate had the best chance of beating Trump, voting for character over policy 2:34:32 Jason & Sacks debate Russian election interference legitimacy 2:41:34 Sacks unveils his Trump Derangement Score tracker, updated outcome scenarios & more 2:51:51 Trump declaring victory could tank markets, live reaction to Joe Biden's election night address

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Jason Calacanis?

  Hello, everybody. Welcome. We are live at the All In Headquarters, and the All In Podcast is now live. We have 63 people watching already, and bear with us while we get the besties on the line. I'll be doing my introductions in just a moment after I tweet this.

• 0:21Jason Calacanis?

  But it is an eventful night, and we had to start early because it's looking like this could be another shocker. And I am not being facetious here. I am not happy about this, obviously. But Trump looks like he's been underestimated again. This is not a blowout.

• 0:48Jason Calacanis?

  We are going live early.

• 0:52Jason Calacanis?

  This could be a shocker, folks.

• 0:59Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, so with me early on the pod is regular David Friedberg. David, you're watching this early action, and what's your early reaction to what we're seeing?

• 1:13David Friedberg?

  You know, Trump's moved. There's nothing definitive yet, but he's moved in the results, and he's moving markets. We're seeing Forex markets show a sharp indication that Trump has a real shot at winning here. Treasury markets, and as Phil Hellmuth will share with us, betting markets as well. So it is more of a nail-biter than Game 7 of the Warriors-Cavs.

• 1:48Phil Hellmuth?

  This is a hell of a nail-biter, guys, and I'm just going to say this. The UK markets had it first. He was 5 to 2. You could get Trump at 5 to 2, 2 and after 1. Then it hit 5 to 4, and I thought that was quite... Crazy, you're watching CNN, you're watching these networks and they're saying, "Oh my God, Biden's winning this." No, they're not even in the right neighborhood. I'll never watch a network again on election night. And now, the market from five minutes ago, 368 million pounds wagered, 368 million pounds, Trump is now a three to 10 favorite.

• 2:24Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, so for people, Phil, who are not gamblers.

• 2:28Phil Hellmuth?

  If you bet $3.

• 2:29Jason Calacanis?

  Let's put this in dollars. You bet $3.

• 2:31Phil Hellmuth?

  No, no, Jason, you have to understand, if you bet $13, okay, you don't get 13 back, you only get 10 back, okay? Now, if you want to bet Biden, it's 7 to 4. So if I bet $70, if I bet $40, I can get $70 back on Biden. Now, the shocker is, right around 6:28 PM, the betting odds, the markets have been in Biden's favor for three straight months. I've been live posting them on my Twitter all day. The worst I saw was, was Trump, was Biden was minus $1.25, still a big favorite to win, and then boom! And, you know, there are people in my house that are actually crying.

• 3:14Phil Hellmuth?

  You know, I'm very much more in the middle of this thing, but all of a sudden, Trump, all of a sudden, it was 5 to 4, then it was even, and then all of a sudden, Trump was nearly a 2 to 1 favorite. I'm getting live information from my friends right now. I'm seeing that, that it's a little bit lower on some of these sites. I saw 267, that's for a $200 bet, so he's a pretty big favorite. I saw the lowest I've seen is 217. But Jason, if you're watching the odds, and I put some stuff on my Twitter, it's amazing how it went from, you know, minus $1.70, you know, all the way down minus $1.30, then it came all the way up to minus $1.70.

• 3:57Phil Hellmuth?

  This is crazy, and I've seen this movie before, in 2016, actually.

• 4:02Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, so we all know that you need 270 electoral votes to win, and that there were a couple of states that were critical for Trump to win. And it seems like those states that Trump was critical to win, he has now won. So let's bring in David Sacks. David, we just turned on the live stream, and boy, is this a turn of events that I don't think any of us, except for maybe you, but you were very pessimistic on the last, maybe three or four All In podcasts. You're watching these results come in. The betting markets have totally flipped to Trump. What are you seeing? And what can we expect tonight?

• 4:46Jason Calacanis?

  What are you looking for?

• 4:48David Sacks?

  Yeah, I mean, it's looking just like 2016. I mean, you're right that I was looking at the polls in the last few pods that we've done, and there was no way to say anything other than, you know, Trump was the, was the underdog. But at the same time, I still thought that Trump had a really good shot, because I was watching both candidates on YouTube all the time. They both were doing live events. I wasn't watching it with the commentary. I wasn't watching the clips. I was watching Trump do these rallies. I was watching Biden do these parking lot events. And I would see Trump do four, five events a day, flying from tarmac to tarmac on Air Force One, having these huge crowds.

• 5:32David Sacks?

  I saw him do this event in Butler, Pennsylvania over the weekend. It looked to me like there was tens of thousands of people there. And I remember Trump saying a line like, you know, "This doesn't seem like a second-place crowd." And, you know, it's one of those Trump lines, but, you know, it did put in my mind this idea, you know, he's got a point. Whatever the polls say, we're seeing tens of thousands of people show up at these events who are fanatical, I mean, just fanatical for Trump. And so you always had to think that he had a chance of pulling off an upset, just like 2016.

• 6:07David Friedberg?

  I will say what I said on our text earlier. Donald Trump ate the COVID virus and killed it with his body.

• 6:16David Friedberg?

  And then he stood in front of the White House and ripped his shirt off and let us all know that he is our leader. He did not get elected. He claimed victory beginning in 2016 and he has not and will not let go since then. And I think it is that cult of personality that

• 6:35Phil Hellmuth?

  Cult of personality.

• 6:37David Friedberg?

  Draws so many people in that are just, you know, feeling like they need change and they need leadership and they don't need something from the old school. And he, he stood up and he showed us that this whole thing is a fake. Covid is a fake. Government is fake. The people are fake. The media is fake.

• 6:55Phil Hellmuth?

  I'm getting some late numbers. I'm getting some late numbers here, you guys. He's now at minus a dollar fifty-nine to win Pennsylvania and they took every other number off the board. However, if you're a Biden person, Jason, the number is only 2.17 right now. So, wow. The polls are, pollsters were miles off on this and this is just amazing.

• 7:22Jason Calacanis?

  And it seems like from what we're hearing from the reporting is that the pollsters did not understand the Latin, or I guess Latinx is a way to describe a group of people who actually don't think exactly the same. I've always had a weird understanding of this term Latinx, which seems to come from the woke left. But Cubans, Puerto Ricans, Mexicans, these are different countries. They're not all the same.

• 7:49David Sacks?

  Venezuelans.

• 7:50Jason Calacanis?

  Venezuelans. This is not a monoculture, just because they all speak the same language. And we're seeing something very different happen in Florida right now where male Cubans maybe are voting very differently than what pollsters expected. Bestie Chamath is now fresh off a tight haircut and he's here on the pod. Can you hear me? We've got Bestie Phil as our first Bestie Guesty of the night. Bestie P, how are you, Bestie P?

• 8:17Phil Hellmuth?

  Chamath, you and I, we shouldn't talk about this. This is about politics, but you and I were just filming high stakes poker in Las Vegas on Friday night. It was great to see you, Bestie.

• 8:28Jason Calacanis?

  Is there any indication you can give us besides, I mean, of course, there's a presidential election that is going to determine the future of humanity, but more importantly, how did you each do in the high stakes poker game?

• 8:39Chamath Palihapitiya?

  The biggest, the biggest, the biggest pot of the night was around 400K, maybe 500K, played between me and Dur.

• 8:48Jason Calacanis?

  Duh, duh, duh, duh, Dur?

• 8:50Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Yeah.

• 8:51Jason Calacanis?

  And he won?

• 8:52Chamath Palihapitiya?

  He did not win the hand.

• 8:55Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, my Lord.

• 8:56Phil Hellmuth?

  Chamath won that one. Go Chamath, go.

• 8:59Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And it was, I think it was beautifully, beautifully played. I think Doug Polk will definitely do a short video clip on it. I did a, I did a very, very sneaky three bet preflop, turn, check, river over bluff, and got him to call.

• 9:18Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, my Lord. A little set bomb, I'm guessing, but here we go.

• 9:24Phil Hellmuth?

  Jason, I can't wait. Since I'm here to promote, promote, promote everything I promote, you can only watch these episodes of High Stakes Poker, a lot of players' favorite show. You can only watch them on the PokerGo app. They're coming out December 16th. Me, Chamath, Phil Ivey, Tom Dwan, Ben Lamb, a lot of your, a lot of your heroes. Take it away.

• 9:43Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, wow. Can't wait, can't wait to, and I have a subscription to that all in, I'm sorry, the PokerGo app, it's, it's well worth it. David Sacks, you have one of your I'm recording. Friends on the pod. Why don't you introduce one of your consulting friends and, and we'll have him tee up what we think the possible scenarios are and where we're at right now at this very moment. It is 6:57 in California.

• 10:09David Sacks?

  Yeah, so Michael Newman works for me as a researcher and he's a, is a political scientist, I guess you could say, and I've known him since college and he's very steeped in these, a lot of these races. I don't know if he's, yeah.

• 10:24Speaker 05

  I have been obsessively following politics since the Reagan election of 1980. So I, I

• 10:31Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I wasn't alive then, so.

• 10:33Speaker 05

  No, I'm afraid I'm, I was only 10, but I was already a political obsessive and as you can imagine, a real hit with the ladies as well.

• 10:44Jason Calacanis?

  So tell us, what are the key states we need to focus in on here? And which one of them have enough reporting for us to sort of put them in a column? And then move on and understand the path to victory for Trump or Biden?

• 11:01Speaker 05

  Yes, well, I mean, depending upon which network or news organization you're following, they're either calling a lot of states or they're being very conservative about their calls. I mean, NBC has still not called Florida for Trump, but there's really no path for Biden to win that state. So you can put that safely in the Trump column. He has just taken the lead in North Carolina after trailing all night. We've got about 88% of the vote in now, and I suspect he's home free, as is the Republican incumbent senator there.

• 11:33Jason Calacanis?

  Well, can I just ask a question? I mean, isn't it typically the case that the counts from the most populous urban areas come last, and those tend to skew more Democrat than Republican?

• 11:47Speaker 05

  That sometimes happens. It depends on the state.

• 11:53Speaker 05

  Some states have their rural areas come in last. One of the things that has changed the vote in North Carolina is as the early vote came in, as the in-person early vote and mail-in ballots came in, the last counties that reported that early vote were the rural counties. That's why early on it looked very good for Biden, and now it looks like it's trending away from him.

• 12:16Jason Calacanis?

  Well, wait a second. North Carolina, according to the New York Times and according to CNN right now, is favoring slightly Biden, 49.7% to 49.1% for Trump with 84%.

• 12:32Speaker 05

  I don't think that's quite current. I think they're up to about 88%. But again, yeah, it's very close. What's interesting is Biden had five potential states where he could have knocked Trump out: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.

• 12:51Speaker 05

  We don't know.

• 12:51Jason Calacanis?

  Florida's off the table.

• 12:52Speaker 05

  We don't. Yeah, Florida's off the table. The others are still on the table, but none of them are trending Biden's direction at the present time. So he, uh, yeah, so far Trump is, uh, is staying in the hand, as, uh, as you poker players would, would say. He's, uh, he's, uh, he's getting the cards he needs to stay in the, to stay in the game. Uh, but we still have the river to play and the river would be in this case, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.

• 13:20Jason Calacanis?

  Texas had an early lead for Biden, which was crazy to see. Right now it's got Donald Trump at 50.3%, Biden at 48.3%.

• 13:30Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Guys, again, again.

• 13:31Jason Calacanis?

  So that's starting to normalize.

• 13:33Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I, I, I go back to this one very critical thing. The reason why Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania right now are Trump is because you count the, the, when the county is counted, you can pass the votes and you can report. And if you have 25,000 people in a county versus Allegheny County, which has like, I don't know, hundreds of thousands or a million plus people, it just takes longer.

• 13:55Speaker 05

  Yes. No, I, listen, I don't characterize Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania at all. I think one of the reasons why Michigan right now looks so red is because they're counting today's vote first. A lot of these other states that, like Florida, that had the option because their legislature allows them to do this, they counted all that early vote in advance and they dumped it in one big pile, uh, as soon as the polls closed in the, in the various counties. So that's why you saw early on a blue mirage there. What you're seeing in a place like Michigan right now is probably a red mirage because it's, it's today's vote, which was going to skew Trump, uh, because of the, because of the way he

• 14:39Speaker 05

  presented it to his people. He, uh, Florida was the one state, uh, thank goodness for his, uh, sake that he. Encouraged people to vote early and by mail. In the other states, he encourages people to vote today.

• 14:52David Friedberg?

  Here's a, here's a stat in Pennsylvania. I'm on the Secretary of State's reporting dashboard. They've counted only 12% of the mail-in ballots. Um, which is, and the total mail-in ballots is 2.5 million.

• 15:08Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 15:09David Friedberg?

  Um, which is huge, right? And they've only counted.

• 15:11Speaker 05

  It should be a majority of the vote, I would imagine, you know?

• 15:14David Friedberg?

  Yeah. And they've, and they've only counted 24%, actually, sorry, they've only. Yeah, they've only counted a handful of precincts at this point. Uh, a quarter of the precincts, right?

• 15:30David Sacks?

  Here's something I don't understand. So Nick Carlson from, was it like Business Insider? He just tweeted, um, minutes ago that North Carolina, Biden is ahead. With 99% of the vote counted and Biden has a less than 0.2% lead, but it's 9,000 votes.

• 15:52Speaker 05

  But I, I mean, that's.

• 15:54David Sacks?

  That would be a huge problem for Trump.

• 15:56Speaker 05

  If he lost North Carolina, I, listen, I think a loss in any of those five states, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, or Texas is probably.

• 16:04Chamath Palihapitiya?

  By the way, guys, I just want to give a shout out to Nathan, who's listening here, all the way from Sri Lanka. He's listening. He just texted me.

• 16:11Speaker 05

  Okay.

• 16:11Phil Hellmuth?

  By the way, guys, right now, the odds are three to one on the betting market. So, I mean, obviously, the networks, I realized, are completely useless. I stopped watching them a long time ago when they had Biden way ahead in Florida and the odds were 10 to one against. Right now, if you want to bet, Trump is a three to one favorite on, and there's been billions of dollars bet in England, Australia, all over the world, he's a three to one favorite. It looks like it's real to me.

• 16:36Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And just to, and just to, just to build your side of the case, uh, NASDAQ futures ripping, S and P futures falling, and the 10 and 30 year falling, RMB ripping, these are all pro-Trump trades.

• 16:49David Friedberg?

  And, and the euro, the euro collapse, the euro dollar falling, uh, falling sharply once the markets turned towards Trump.

• 16:55David Sacks?

  Well, here's what they're reacting to is Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Trump is all up big time now.

• 17:01Chamath Palihapitiya?

  But again, this, this, that lacks a very basic understanding of how county reporting is happening in these highly populous, you know, or these sort of, sorry, these, these uh, bimotally distributed states where they have a bunch of suburban and rural vote that's fast to count. And the big places, for example, like, you know, you're not going to see Milwaukee and Green Bay report until probably close to midnight.

• 17:23David Sacks?

  So, so the question is, why, why are the betting markets so pro-Trump then? What do they know that we don't know?

• 17:29Phil Hellmuth?

  I will say this, let me say this, Jason. I mean, if you're like, you're talking about billions of dollars, right? And so all you had to do was design a system to figure out how to calculate votes earlier and make a couple hundred million dollars. Okay? These are the smartest people in the world. There's hundreds of millions of dollars, billions of dollars at stake. They obviously do it 10 times better than any other site, than any other network. So this information, I mean, I give a friend of mine posted, hey, I'm laying two to one on, on Twitter, on Biden. My other friend bet $400,000 to $800,000. And now he looks like a genius. Somebody knows something that we don't know.

• 18:09Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Well, Trump just on Bovada, Trump just moved to minus 600.

• 18:14David Friedberg?

  Yeah, he just took Michigan.

• 18:15Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Un, unbelievable, minus 600.

• 18:18David Friedberg?

  It looks like he's, uh, it looks like he's ahead in Michigan.

• 18:20Chamath Palihapitiya?

  But again, we have to see Detroit, and there's, there's a bunch of places in Michigan. Let's, let's, let's, let's bathe.

• 18:27David Friedberg?

  The north, so here's the North Carolina Secretary of State dashboard, and they're showing, uh, two thirds of the counties, and you can actually see by county when you go onto their, their dashboard. The, um, you know, the larger counties are partially reported. Most of the smaller counties are fully reported. Um, 63% total with, um, you know, Biden ahead by literally a thousand votes right now. Across 2.522 million to 2.521 million.

• 18:58Phil Hellmuth?

  Wow.

• 19:00David Sacks?

  But what percent reported is that? I mean,

• 19:03David Friedberg?

  It's 63% of the counties have completely reported. And so the remaining counties, if you look at the reporting status, the remaining counties that are partially reported, there's a mix of rural and some of the urban counties, you know, Durham's in there partially reported. Uh, so there is a mix. It's not only-

• 19:23Speaker 05

  Durham should be a Biden county. The research triangle is upscale, well-educated professionals that I think are the backbone of the Democrats' coalition in a state like North Carolina.

• 19:37David Friedberg?

  Now, they have absentee votes that are counted, and they have so far counted 3.3 million absentee one-stop votes and a million votes by mail. But that's how many came in. It actually shows that only five, oh, I see. Yeah, okay, that makes sense.

• 19:57David Sacks?

  Trump is now ahead in Ohio.

• 19:59David Friedberg?

  Two thirds, two thirds of the votes were absentee or mail.

• 20:02Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Post the link into the Zoom chat so Nick can pull it up on the screen, please. Um, I, I need to get an understanding of something very basic here for the audience who's not degenerate gamblers. Are, is there a chance here, Phil and Chamath, gambling experts both, that people had put early money on Biden and are now covering or hedging some of those bets? Is that a possibility here?

• 20:27Jason Calacanis?

  Yes.

• 20:28Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Okay.

• 20:29Phil Hellmuth?

  Jason, Jason, the line is minus a dollar, minus 410 on Pinnacle right now. Let me just double check that source.

• 20:35Chamath Palihapitiya?

  So what, what Phil is saying, Jason, is like, yes, there's going to be a bunch of essentially covering. Now, that covering will swing the line. But I think what Phil is also saying is when a line moves this violently, literally what we've seen in the last 35 minutes, is both the equity markets, the currency markets, and the betting markets flip 180 degrees from where they have been, not just all day, but frankly, where they had been probably for the last few months.

• 21:06Phil Hellmuth?

  That's what I was saying, Chamath, for three months straight, uh, right now Biden has been a favorite, anywhere between three to one favorite at one point. All the way to maybe, you know, 50% favorite. And then all of a sudden today, the lowest I saw was $1.35 and I was kind of shocked. And the next thing you know, boom, Trump's a three to four to one favorite. So, and I'm looking at CNN and I'm looking at these networks and they're still, they still have Biden ahead and I'm like, wow, what is going on?

• 21:34Speaker 05

  They're way behind.

• 21:35Phil Hellmuth?

  That's, that's the next thing we need to take care of, Chamath. There's a business for you is somehow we can deliver the right data on elections quickly. There you go, Sax.

• 21:44David Sacks?

  Yeah, well, I think the betting markets know something we don't know because Trump is just, you know, if you look at like the live stream on Twitter or the New York Times or something, Trump just slightly took the lead in Ohio, but that's the state he's supposed to win in North Carolina. It looks like with over 99% reporting, it looks like he lost by 9,000 votes.

• 22:05Speaker 05

  By the way, a 9,000 vote margin would probably trigger an automatic recount of North Carolina.

• 22:10David Sacks?

  And there's like 100,000 absentee ballots there. I don't know if those have been counted yet.

• 22:14Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, so let's pause for one second on this, everybody. North Carolina is one of the four or five states Trump has to win in order to have a victory, right, Michael?

• 22:25Speaker 05

  I absolutely agree with that. He had to have those five, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, and Texas.

• 22:31Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, so we have Florida, he's got. Now there's four left.

• 22:35Speaker 05

  There's four left. Georgia's a very slow counting state. We really don't know. All of Atlanta could be out for all we know.

• 22:40Jason Calacanis?

  So we leave Georgia on the side. So now we've got four states we can work with. North Carolina is in Biden's pocket by just a hair.

• 22:49Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 22:50Jason Calacanis?

  That could change and it would trigger a recount which would take days to weeks.

• 22:56Speaker 05

  Yes.

• 22:57Jason Calacanis?

  The other three states, let's go through them systematically, one by one, Michael.

• 23:00Speaker 05

  Okay. Ohio was the biggest surprise of the night when Biden built an early lead there, although again, a bit of a blue mirage based upon the fact that the mail-in vote and the early vote came in so strong for the Democrats this year because they emphasized it and the Republicans kind of fought against it.

• 23:19Phil Hellmuth?

  Michael, Michael with forty-nine percent of the vote in Ohio, okay? He had a right now Biden had a massive lead.

• 23:26Speaker 05

  He had about a four hundred thousand vote lead with half the vote.

• 23:28Phil Hellmuth?

  Correct. And when you look at the betting odds, he was five to one underdog to win the state. So something doesn't add up there and you can you can say, all right, some of that is all the early voting went for Biden. We know that to be a fact, but there's something else there.

• 23:42Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, I'm just looking at the results for Ohio. We'll stay on Ohio for one more moment. And then we have another guest who just jumped on Ohio is currently showing Donald Trump with two point rounding it up two point four million votes to two point two million slightly rounding up for Joe Biden fifty-two percent to forty-seven percent with seventy-eight percent reporting. Does that mean we feel comfortable with Trump winning Ohio?

• 24:13Speaker 05

  Unless all of Cleveland is outstanding, I would say that's a Trump state.

• 24:18Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, we now have John Cohen on the line. John is a member of the Survey Monkey team. John, welcome to the All In Pod. Can you hear us?

• 24:28Speaker 06

  Thank you so much. I'm sorry. I didn't hear what was going on. I don't I don't know how much you've been disparaging pollsters so far. So we were waiting for you.

• 24:37Jason Calacanis?

  We're waiting for you to get here. Tell us as we start what your prediction was earlier today.

• 24:45Speaker 06

  Well, we're very clear to say that we're doing measurements, not predictions. That said, the measurements that we are doing clearly pointed to Biden advantages across the board, but we didn't have we so far. We have no surprises. You know, we had Florida had been Trump plus two basically all week going to dead even. You know, coming into the election day itself. We don't know where the final votes will be. Most analysts think that it's in Trump's camp. It may end up there, but it's super close. We had Georgia close. We had North Carolina close, although and North Carolina had been closing. It had been a big Biden lead. It was down to under two points with the Senate, you know, kind of even closer than that in some of our data. So, you know, so far there's no obvious surprise here like, damn, the polls were really wrong.

• 25:29Speaker 06

  Certainly ours, you know, it's our it's early, though. We're not declaring victory on those. Obviously, there's a lot to watch, but nothing really to surprise, you know, us giving the numbers so far.

• 25:38Chamath Palihapitiya?

  What about Ohio and Georgia?

• 25:41Speaker 06

  So we had Ohio pretty consistently in Trump's camp. We had him up four, so it's trending that way now. We had it as close as two points for Trump. I mean, again, I haven't mentioned the word margin of error. That's in my professional obligation and duty to mention it. It's around three points, I believe, two and a half in Ohio. So, close, but we always had it in Trump's camp. Again, Biden, that wasn't part of Biden's, you know, any of the past victory that the campaign was counting on. So, you know, no big deal, but we went from having a early night to now we're for sure in for a really late night here.

• 26:15Chamath Palihapitiya?

  John, let me ask you the, one of the most basic questions that I've had, which is, what did we learn from 2016? And tell me, what exactly did people try to fix? Like, what was the thing that everybody got wrong? And what changed?

• 26:30Speaker 06

  Well, the biggest thing that polls fixed was how they adjust their polls by education. What we see in polling, no matter how they're conducted, whether online, as we do at Survey Monkey, or still on the telephone, which most media pollsters do, is you get people with more formal education to answer those surveys in far greater proportions than you do people with lower education. So the biggest thing you got to do, and look, we always did it, so we weren't in the, among the state pollsters who kind of failed, I think, you know, kind of negligently to adjust by education at all. We always adjust by education, but we, what we failed to notice in 2016 was there was an increasing gap between those with

• 27:09Speaker 06

  postgraduate degrees and those with BAs. They've always been both a pro-democratic group, but the gap in 2016 was abnormally large. A fix to our polls, which I just point out, weren't, you know, kind of were actually standouts in the, in the upper Midwest in terms of showing it as a close race, not clear victories. We broke apart post-grads and grads into two distinct categories, and that released kind of about a point and a half of unforced error in our polling for 2016. So that's fixed. We've used it to good effect. Again, this time around, we weren't showing what all the other national polls were showing. We've had this between a four and six-point national lead. Again, we'll get quickly into why national results don't matter, but you all know that all too well. Everyone knows that all too well.

• 27:51Speaker 06

  But we've had it kind of more narrow, and that plays out in the states that I mentioned. We had Florida tied, not a four-point Biden, five-point Biden. Advantage elsewhere, you know, but we'll see how it plays out in the Midwest. We also had Wisconsin, what was our final margin there? I think it was, you know, kind of nine and nine and a half points, not the 17 points that you saw from my former colleagues at the Washington Post and ABC News. So we've always had it a little bit tighter, but again, it plays how it's going to play out in these states. And so far, no surprises, but the night is early and I'm, I have a healthy dose of pollster's paranoia. Jamal, I don't know if that answered your question well enough, but that was the main thing people did.

• 28:25Chamath Palihapitiya?

  It's really helpful, but now take off your pollster, measure, you know, chief research officer hat for a second and put on just the American hat. What does it mean when, you know, we had effectively a repudiation of the establishment in 2016? And despite everything that's happened over the last four years, we may be on the brink of another repudiation again. If you, you know, where you're there to measure the pulse of what's going on, but less in sort of measurement speak and just more in just plain American English speak, John, what like what's going on if this happens again?

• 29:05Speaker 06

  See, you're absolutely right. There's something major. I would also like to caveat it. We are looking once again at if Trump wins, it's because of the Electoral College. Like he is going to lose the popular vote. There are still far more Americans and American voters who voted today and, you know, kind of over the past several weeks, who would prefer Joe Biden to be president. So again, we can't characterize with a broad brush the American voting population when this is about effectively, I hate to call it a quirk, but this is about our system of of vote tallying. And the president, you know, but to pull back your point about kind of there is something major here. The fact that many people, you know, some of us might be friends with can't understand why this isn't

• 29:45Speaker 06

  a hundred to zero race, fail to understand that the president's base isn't small. It is, you know, we've had it 44 to 46% approving of his job performance for many years now. Like he has a completely durable, solid floor. He also has a high ceiling. Right, so he was never gonna win the popular vote this time around, but he had a chance at that electoral, you know, squeaking out another Electoral College win because he's been so stable. You know, this is a president who, you know, kind of, oh, Trump now had an NC. Thank you for the chat window. So I think you're right that we need to understand more about what is the componentry of that 45% that they would support Trump when the other 55% are so dead set against him and see it as something really wrong with the country.

• 30:30Speaker 06

  So we still have two thirds of the country.

• 30:32Chamath Palihapitiya?

  No, what have you guys done to, though, understand the people that are voting for Trump better? Because I think that they are protesting, and they're protesting a lot. And I think that, you know, if we didn't listen to them in 16, I think it's almost criminal to not listen to them in 2020. So what are they, what are they saying? What are they rejecting? Or what is it that they want? Because at the end of the day, you know, I think his incompetence can't really be debated. Competence versus incompetence. I think what we can debate is he's a vessel. And in that, I think that it's incredibly important what's happening, irrespective of what happens today, because we were supposed to walk into a landslide.

• 31:16Chamath Palihapitiya?

  We're not, as you said, we're gonna be in a nail biter. What are, what are, what are they using him as a vessel to communicate to everybody else?

• 31:24Speaker 06

  That's a really good question. I mean, some of that will depend on, you know, a closer analysis of the surveys, ours, where we talked to more than a million voters, and the exit polls that are being conducted by two separate organizations. They, well, what's the, what are the storylines that come out of the election? You know, one of the things that's been reported early is there's a much tighter Hispanic vote in Florida than many early polls, you know, predicted. How will that play out as we start to get votes, you know, coming out in Texas? How will it be in Arizona? See, Arizona looking positively for Biden and Mark Kelly in the Senate, you know, in Arizona. You know, is it, is it really Hispanic votes that are driving some Trump strength in these states? Or you kind of, is it the obsession that the news media has had for the past four years around the

• 32:05Speaker 06

  kind of Trump, middle-aged, white, male voter with less than college education who's been displaced by, you know, technological and industrial trends over the past 20 years? I think it's gonna depend on what that voting coalition looks like for Trump.

• 32:19Speaker 05

  And it's more diverse than I think we've been focusing on for four years.

• 32:22Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I think you're saying an incredibly important thing. I think that that was a ruse and I've always thought that that was bullshit. It's not some undereducated rube that's running around voting for this guy. I think that there are people up and down the the age spectrum, the socioeconomic spectrum. And this is what I mean by he has become a vessel for so many different messages. And I think we really have to start figuring out what the hell these messages actually mean because if Biden loses, to your point, maybe in Florida, it's a repudiation of socialism. Okay, but in Pennsylvania, it's going to be something else. In Michigan, it's going to be something else. In Ohio, it's going to be something else. For him to keep winning, right?

• 33:07Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And and I just don't think that there's a consistent idea and it's very dismissive to say that. I'm not saying you are, but I'm saying, you know, that idea that it was an out of work ex factory worker, you know, in rural Ohio that was protesting. This is going to be much bigger than that because even if Biden wins the popular vote, until we figure out how to rebalance the Electoral College in a completely, you know, new way or just get rid of it altogether. We're going to have to live with understanding how some folks in these extremely pivotal states are pushing back. Are they pushing back on political correctness? You know, that's one thing that I've always thought. I think that there's a huge vote here against Cancel culture.

• 33:52Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Cancel culture, all of that stuff.

• 33:54David Sacks?

  Absolutely, absolutely.

• 33:57Speaker 05

  And lockdowns. I think those are the underreported. Lockdowns are the, I think the biggest, one of the biggest drivers.

• 34:03Chamath Palihapitiya?

  No, go ahead, John, go ahead.

• 34:04Speaker 06

  No, I was gonna say, one of the components here that we have to pay a lot of attention is gender. Right? Kind of the storyline for a long time, when you think about, you know, kind of Republican Democrat politics, is that, you know, we talk about black voters and Hispanic voters, talking about them as if they're monoliths. What we have seen consistently over the course of the year is that Trump does much better among black men and Hispanic men than he does among black women and Latinas. And that is just kind of like.

• 34:32Speaker 05

  You know, whereas black women are ninety five five, you know, he nears twenty percent among black men. It blends into the what we've the ninety ten.

• 34:39David Sacks?

  Look, but I but I look, these are measurements. These are measurements. I don't think they're telling you the whys of anything. And I think for the whys, you have to go a lot deeper. I mean, first of all, let's let's talk about the lockdown issue. Can we just pull up that tweet, Nick? I mean, so this is what I said back in May. This was like months ago before the election even hit, you know, which is if the woke left insists on permanent lockdowns, Trump will have an issue that supersedes the incompetence of COVID response. Because I think, you know, we all we all agree on that, which is whether our lives and livelihoods belong to politicians to meter out in dribs and drabs as they see fit. And this was back when Elon was being shut out of his factory in Fremont. And then there was this hairdresser

• 35:24David Sacks?

  and named Shelley Luther in Texas, who was basically put on trial for opening up her hair salon. And the the judge wanted her to to grovel and beg for forgiveness. And this was the beginning of the rebellion over lockdowns. And it was so obvious back then that lockdowns weren't going to fly. They weren't sustainable. They were too politically unpopular. They weren't going to work. And and by the way, if it was something, a cause that the left agreed with, like, you know, a BLM rally or something like that, then you were allowed to do it, you know, it was that whole standard around, you know, doing things that were essential. And so, you know, this insistence on lockdowns, even after

• 36:09David Sacks?

  the public had really repudiated them, I think was a major issue for for Trump. And it was crazy to me that Biden was still insisting on lockdowns, you know, still, I mean, that is his official position. I don't think it's the only reason why he's in trouble right now, but I think it's a big one.

• 36:27Speaker 05

  I think if he if Trump reaches the blue wall again of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, lockdowns is the biggest reason why, because those are three states that had extensive and still have extensive lockdowns.

• 36:39David Friedberg?

  It hurts. It hurts people. I'll here, I'll read you a tweet. I won't name who it's from. It's from a farmer.

• 36:47David Friedberg?

  In the Corn Belt, who's well followed on Twitter, believe it or not, there's a whole ag Twitter community, and he says, "Well, it's the day. Does this country turn down the road to be like Venezuela, or do we continue on the road of capitalism?" And he's had this acute feeling that he's kind of vocalized on Twitter for months now on how painful the lockdowns have been on him and his family and his business and on the community. And it just feels like overreach to a lot of people, that the recognition that, you know, the left might be using to justify the decision is just not there, that the impact, the near-term impact that folks are feeling is what's there. And that's driving a lot of behavior right now.

• 37:29Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Boys, all markets are now up. Everything is green. Dow futures, S&P 500 futures, Nasdaq futures. Oil is up, gold is down.

• 37:39David Friedberg?

  There were some guys that made some heavy bets against the dollar going into this, thinking we were going to have massive inflation with Biden policy coming up, and some big fund managers that went really big on shorting the dollar this last week. And the dollar's up right now.

• 37:54David Sacks?

  By the way, we should make sure at some point tonight to talk about these very important Senate races, because it's not just Trump versus Biden, there's also a bunch of

• 38:04David Friedberg?

  Hickenlooper won in Colorado.

• 38:07David Sacks?

  Hickenlooper won in Colorado. But there've been some, you know, some of the Republicans who look to be in big trouble, like Lindsey Graham, have pulled it out and have won. And so it's looking like the Senate is still very much in play. I would say as big a favorite as Biden was, the Senate shifting from Republican to Democrat, I'd say that was considered as equally big a favorite. And that may not happen now. So we should make sure to talk about that at some point.

• 38:36Jason Calacanis?

  North Carolina right now is 49.8% to 49% for Biden, 2.6 million versus 2.58. Ohio is at 2.4 to 2.2, 52% to 47%, Trump is beating Biden.

• 38:53Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I have a question for John Cohen. John, let's go back to sort of your understanding as you've been measuring different trends. Have you measured? People's sympathy towards lockdowns on a state by state level? And then second question is, have you measured people's sympathy to cancel culture at a state by state level? And by the way, you're on mute, so if you want to just take yourself off.

• 39:19Speaker 06

  Yeah, thank you. We have not done anything on cancel culture. We've done a lot on the coronavirus. We've been tracking that actually in three countries since mid February. And we have a state by state look. And what's interesting is we asked the question like, is this primarily an economic issue or primarily a health issue? And those two have been running neck and neck. But the health, you kind of more people on average say it's a health issue than an economic one. Trump with Trump supporters overwhelmingly say that the crisis is one that's financial, not health related. So there's always been that, but it's been like a 45, 55 gap there. So if we've been measuring it state by state, but there's a solid core of people. And it gets to David's point about why? What are they focused on? What is the, what is affecting them and their, you know, pocketbooks?

• 40:02Speaker 06

  It is the, you know, lockdowns and the kind of clamping down and what is this economic crisis? Not a healthcare one, even though that's what we all say that they should follow.

• 40:12Chamath Palihapitiya?

  There was a, there was a, there was a fantastic line that the Democrats coined, which essentially said something to the tune, Saxi Poo, you'll tell me if I get this wrong, but it was socialism for the rich and rugged individualism for the, for the rest of us. Is essentially sort of their grab bag phrase for, um, for this election cycle. And sort of to frame a lot of policies. But when you have in these states, again, if we say this cuts along socioeconomic lines, but then maybe bleeds into, college and even, you know, graduate level educated folks. Is there a vote here for rugged individualism and just leave me the fuck alone?

• 40:55Speaker 05

  There certainly could be. I want to go back to what David said about measuring versus the why, because I mentioned gender to point out a big difference that we're seeing across racial groups, across the levels of education. But I'm, you know, we're polling every day. So you guys have the right why question, you know, send it to me, you know, send it to Xander. We'll, we'll, we'll ask it. You know, we polled 9,000 people today on, you know, kind of their willingness to accept the results. And so we'll be putting that out, you know, tomorrow. We have a, we'll have an exit poll running every day from here on to certainly till we get a result. So you have the question you want to ask, send along, we'll, we'll, we'll get you the data at the state level.

• 41:31Jason Calacanis?

  All right, John, we very much appreciate you coming on the pod and we will be checking Survey Monkey's amazing data as we go. I'm going to switch now and just John, John, thank, John, thank you and Xander, thanks for do, for hooking that up. Thanks,

• 41:45Speaker 05

  John. Thanks, guys.

• 41:46Speaker 06

  Thank you.

• 41:46Jason Calacanis?

  And we'll have some more bestie guesties coming up, some fan favorites from the Twitter and the poker group. I just want to point out right now that it's very interesting to see that Fox has Biden at 129 electoral votes and Trump at 109. And some of the other networks have it much lower. How do the networks make these decisions of when to call a state? Because it's too early, according to many, to call Florida, but we're sitting here with a pretty clear understanding of where Florida's at. Does anybody have any thoughts on that?

• 42:25Speaker 05

  Well, I think they're erring on the side of extreme caution because of the strange year that it is and the fact that there is all this. We had 100, over 100 million votes banked early through the mail or through early in-person voting. And nobody's sure how many more mail ballots. There, according to one side I looked at, there were still 27 million ballots outstanding. Now, some of those are redundant ballots, like David's father-in-law, who got three ballots in the mail in Pennsylvania. And a lot of those are probably going in the trash. But there could be another five to 10 million of those to come in that are postmarked by today. Many states will accept them after the election, as long as they're postmarked by election day.

• 43:07Speaker 05

  So they're probably being very, very careful that they don't make a premature call. Of course, they all have PTSD about what happened in 2000 when they first prematurely called Florida for Al Gore, then prematurely called it for George W. Bush, and we spent the next 37 days trying to figure out what the hell happened in Florida. So I think they're going to err on the side of extreme caution across the board. Although I feel like the margin in Florida at this point is insurmountable.

• 43:35Jason Calacanis?

  It feels insurmountable now, right? That Florida, Florida's over.

• 43:38David Sacks?

  Florida's over. It's about now, it's about, it's about Ohio. By the way, the betting markets have just moved again big time. So Donald Trump was at minus 600, now he's minus 250 on Bovado. Phil, what do you think about that?

• 43:51Phil Hellmuth?

  Yeah, he's snapping back. I will say, let me, let me address what Jake, Jason was talking about a few seconds ago. And that's it. You know, basically Florida, even the New York Times had them at, at 6:00 PM at 95% to go to Trump. 95%. That was a New York Times site. My wife and I looked it up and the betting odds had him at, at over 10 to 1. This was at 5:30. This was two hours ago. So, I mean, I just think there's a huge inefficiency with, with the way the.

• 44:18Speaker 05

  I think it was over as soon as the Miami Dade dump showed that Biden only won the early vote by nine points. I mean, Hillary won it by 29 in 2016 and she lost the state. So.

• 44:30Jason Calacanis?

  How much of this do we think has to do with tax policy? People in Florida are retiring. We have the AOC gang. We have Elizabeth Warren.

• 44:43Phil Hellmuth?

  Florida, it's his beloved state. He has a, a place there.

• 44:47Jason Calacanis?

  So hometown favorite Mar-a-Lago, I get that. But you have so many retirees and we, we have this bifurcation of how taxes should work in the United States. So I just want to open that up for the entire group to discuss of are, are we seeing old people? Are we seeing people who are concerned about taxes? Because we have had a flight in the last couple of years of people from high tax states to low tax states. Is this about taxes? Do you think? Let's start with you, Friedberg.

• 45:18David Friedberg?

  No, no one wants to pay taxes. The fuck, I mean, like, no one's going to raise their hand and say, I want to pay taxes.

• 45:25Jason Calacanis?

  But I mean, there's a moment where taxes don't matter.

• 45:28David Sacks?

  Well, but Romney, Romney, Romney was in favor of taxes and he, you know, he didn't win any, any of these elections like the way that Trump looks like he's going to. I think that the, the traditional Republican messages, message of taxes is sort of necessary, but not sufficient. Trump obviously brought a whole set of issues that previous Republicans hadn't, hadn't brought. And I think that you, I think you have to look at 2016 separately from 2020. And so, starting with 2016, I think the big issue that Trump, that no Republican really had ever figured out, except maybe Pat Buchanan 20 years ago, was the trade

• 46:13David Sacks?

  issue with China. You know, we forget that in the 1970s, when the great Chinese economic reformer Deng Xiaoping decided to open up the Chinese economy, the average Chinese was making $2 a day. And today, their economy is roughly the size of the US. Now, you know, what, what was the reason for that? Well, we had a bipartisan consensus in this country for 30 or 40 years on the part of both Clintons and both Bushes, that we should, you know, open them, we should welcome them with open arms. And we opened up our market to Chinese products. We brought them into the World Trade Organization. But, but, but that was the start, that was the start of, that was the, the killer app

• 46:54David Sacks?

  or the killer issue that Trump figured out. And that's what shattered the blue firewall in those Rust Belt states. I mean, if you're going to try and figure out going back 2016, why Trump won, you have to explain why he won. Michigan was

• 47:07Jason Calacanis?

  So you're saying our jobs, they took our jobs. But what I'm saying is

• 47:11David Sacks?

  The manufacturing jobs went out and the fentanyl came in. I mean, that's his argument. And that was a killer argument. I mean, and the proof is in the pudding. It's the proof is that he won these states that Hillary thought were so in the bag that she didn't even bother to campaign there. That was the big surprise.

• 47:28Chamath Palihapitiya?

  At 2020 and the issue of taxes.

• 47:31David Sacks?

  Well, no, no, no, no, no. Let me explain what's going on in 2020, in my opinion. Okay, this is not a partisan explanation, but I think that after the loss in 2016, look, in business, we know that when you lose, when you make a mistake, you make a bad investment or the company does something wrong, you analyze what you did wrong, right? And then you figure out what changes to make. The Democrat Party did not do that. What did they do? They blamed Facebook, they blamed it on Russian interference. They never really analyzed why they lost these Rust Belt states and made changes. Instead, what they began was this hysterical denunciation of Trump. You had this sort of, you know, you sort of had this, this sort of,

• 48:16David Sacks?

  you know, media, culture, tech, industrial complex, who decided that Trump was an illegitimate president. And, you know, and so what they did is they went all in on impeachment. They went all in on this Russia stuff. And in the process, they created this enormous backlash. And I think that 2020, if 2016 was an economic repudiation of the elites, 2020 is a cultural repudiation of the elites. That is the big issue in 2020.

• 48:45Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Yeah, I, I tend to, I tend to, I'm sympathetic to David's view. I don't completely agree with all of it, but just to build on something you said, I don't think, Jason, this has anything to do with taxes. I think that in Florida, the, if we, if we end up really getting to the bottom of what happened, I think there's a lot of people, older people that probably lived through some version of McCarthyism and immigrants who've actually fled really shitty totalitarian countries, who are like, you want to do what here? Um, and I think that there was a lot of people that basically are giving a very clear signal, which is, I'm a Democrat, but if you push me to the brink and talk about a

• 49:29Chamath Palihapitiya?

  socialized nanny state, I'm going to vote Republican. So to David's point-

• 49:33David Friedberg?

  Totally agree.

• 49:34Chamath Palihapitiya?

  To David's point, if there was an economic repudiation of sort of traditional globalism in 2016, and Donald Trump ends up carrying the day and today, then it's a repudiation of sort of these cultural manifestos and norms that we're swinging to. Now, the answer to that may be to say, change the Electoral College because it doesn't represent the majority or the plurality of Americans. I hear that. But in the same way that, you know, we've said for years now that the Republicans will have to change to win the Electoral College, or to change to win what's evolving in terms of people's perceptions on social

• 50:15Chamath Palihapitiya?

  policy, it may actually be the Democrats that also have to change if this doesn't swing hard back in Biden's favor. So-

• 50:23Jason Calacanis?

  And Chamath, when you, when you made that statement, I think what's particularly prescient is the Democrats believed that because of the demographic shift from white Americans to people of color, Latinos, Black Americans, that they were just going to win all of them.

• 50:41Chamath Palihapitiya?

  This is, this is the problem with the stupidity-

• 50:43Jason Calacanis?

  They assumed that if you were-

• 50:44Chamath Palihapitiya?

  This is the problem with the stupidity of the establishment. Like, if you take a thousand brown people and put us in a room, what I will tell you is, just in case, here's a fucking memo for all you white people out there. We're not all the goddamn same.

• 50:59Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Okay? And if you put a thousand Black people, here's the memo now for the Democrats and the Republicans. They're not all the same. You can take a thousand Hispanics and it turns out they're not all the same. So maybe, you know, you can take a thousand straight people, a thousand gay people, they're, we're not all the fucking same. So maybe what this means is that we've moved past color, and now ideology and social policy and economic and monetary and fiscal, all of these things, that the totality of how a rational, well-developed person-

• 51:35Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Makes a decision, maybe that's at hand and before if we historically only thought, you know, older white men and white women could do it, maybe now it actually applies independent of color and gender.

• 51:44Speaker 05

  Yeah, I absolutely agree with that and I would add to that, that if Trump's victory in 2016 laid waste to the Republican establishment, if he wins again tonight, it will lay waste to the Democratic establishment. And the theory of the case that they've had for 20 years, the sort of chair, emerging Democratic majority case, that they just had to sit back and let demography become destiny and they could just graft an identity politics onto the same neoliberal economic agenda they've been pushing since the late 1980s and it would all just somehow magically produce majority results in the country. They are going to have to go back to the drawing board and, and I think get more populist

• 52:27Speaker 05

  themselves and come up with some kind of version of politics that is

• 52:31David Friedberg?

  Isn't it?

• 52:32Speaker 05

  More in the Bernie mold, it's, it needs to be left but not woke.

• 52:36David Friedberg?

  Isn't it going to be socialism?

• 52:38Speaker 05

  It's, it probably is going to be socialism, but it needs to not be-

• 52:41David Friedberg?

  Like if you, if you lay waste to the center, you know, you're left, like, I mean, that's basically what happened in 2016 to the Republicans. And now if you're saying the same is going to happen with the Democrats, this time around, you're going to have AOC running for president in four years.

• 52:54Speaker 05

  And she won't be the right brand though, because she's woke. You need a Sherrod Brown, you don't need AOC. We needed a charismatic Democratic candidate. Somehow Sherrod Brown keeps getting elected in increasingly red Ohio as an old school, gravelly voiced Irish Labour Democrat. And somehow Bernie ignited a movement as a very old school, gravelly voiced Jewish Democrat, neither of whom gave a damn about identity politics, really. They were principally concerned with inequality and- Income redistribution.

• 53:30Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I want to, I want to pick up on.

• 53:32Speaker 05

  Don't want to see that happen, but I think that's the only path forward for the Democrats.

• 53:34Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Hold on, let's, let me go to Phil, because Phil had something he wants to add there. And then we'll go to you, Chuma.

• 53:38Phil Hellmuth?

  Yeah, I want to say that we needed, for the Democrats, and they just needed, I think they needed a very, they needed a charismatic, powerful leader with a lot of charisma. I mean, I know that, you know, the, I was hanging out with one of the Trump guys that was with him on the plane in the 2016 election. He said that, you know, he outworked Hillary. There's no doubt that he outworked Biden. I mean, this guy's going to seven rallies a day, showing up with a ton of energy, and he has, you know, like him or not, he has a lot of charisma. Also, I can't help but think that, if you're talking about repe- repe- repudiating, sorry, I'm getting that word wrong. To me, this is all about, I think a lot of people are really scared of socialism. Okay?

• 54:22Phil Hellmuth?

  And I think it's just like, even the young people that, you know, even the young people, you know, who say that they love it, they're looking at their path to the future. And, and with, and you know, they can, they can still do great things. There's no doubt you can still be a 20-year-old and, and make a billion dollars by the time you're 30 or 40. And I think with socialism, that goes away.

• 54:43Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I think that, um, look, I, I, I think if Trump does win, um, I don't think what it means is that you need a, a, a person that's at the extreme left to win. I actually, counterintuitively, would say the op- the opposite, which is that you need just a more credible-centered person. Now, that may only be possible if the Democratic Party cleaves in two. And the reality is, the Republicans may actually quasi cleave in two, independent of whether Trump wins or not anyways. Um, and we'll see, as David said, how some of these Senate seats break, because if that goes in a different direction, you know, for example, if Trump wins, but we have, you

• 55:25Chamath Palihapitiya?

  know, a Democratic tie in the Senate, maybe that's not possible. Um, but, um, I think that would say a lot around, um, the need for pragmatic, but more youthful leadership.

• 55:40Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, I want to go around the horn right now. What is your gut telling me? Who is going to win, given what we know right now? Everybody give it a thought, uh, when you're ready, look into the camera and I will call on you. Michael, you're looking into the camera. Who's gonna win? If you had to pick one right now, Michael, give us your best guess. We're this is a all in podcast.

• 56:00Speaker 05

  Can you spot me the winner of the recount in North Carolina? Because that would tell me a lot, but, uh, uh, I have increasingly think Trump is going to win.

• 56:07Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, Phil, you're looking in the camera. Who do you think's gonna win?

• 56:10Phil Hellmuth?

  We've seen this movie before, um, except that Hillary was actually five to one favorite last time. And I watched these numbers go straight up and now I'm watching the same thing. It seems like, although I will say this, uh, you know, Sacks has been posting some stuff within our channel about the numbers popping up and down. I'm getting texts and they are popping up and down, but still the lowest I've seen is 2.5 to one. I think Trump wins.

• 56:34Jason Calacanis?

  Trump wins. Who do you got, Sacks?

• 56:37David Sacks?

  Well, I'm gonna assume the betting markets know something. Um, I'm still a little bit unclear on, on North Carolina. Um, because I saw some tweets that Biden had won it by a few thousand votes, but the, um, the, the North Carolina website is showing, um, that actually Trump's ahead by like 70,000 votes. So I'm not sure who to believe. Um, and, uh, well, yeah, I mean, look, I'm, I'm gonna, I'm gonna go, I'm gonna, I'm gonna go with what the better markets are saying, which is Trump. And, um, you know, I thought that he, I thought he had a much better shot than the polls were reflecting. And then that's what it's looking like.

• 57:17Jason Calacanis?

  What do you got for you, Berg?

• 57:20David Friedberg?

  Donald Trump took on coronavirus for us. He killed it. He is our true leader and he will prevail here in the United States of America tonight. At least the betting markets are telling me and the treasury markets and the S and P futures are telling me that Donald Trump's gonna win. But I do think that the fact that this guy has never conceded defeat to anything in his life.

• 57:44Speaker 05

  Gives him a huge leg up and he war, you know, he is, he is like Steve Jobs. He warps reality and he tells everyone, I am going to win. I have killed coronavirus and it happens.

• 57:57Phil Hellmuth?

  Wait, like a Jedi knight?

• 57:59Jason Calacanis?

  Like a Jedi.

• 58:00Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 58:01Jason Calacanis?

  All right, Chamath, four of four so far, picking Trump at exactly 7:45 PM California time. Chamath, who do you have at this point, if you had to shove your chips all in?

• 58:12Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Uh, I still think the path is, um, um, uh, I, um, I think it's Biden and I have the advantage of some information, which is that, uh, they just announced, breaking news, they aren't counting mail-in votes in Philadelphia tonight.

• 58:32Jason Calacanis?

  And I, uh, am going with Biden.

• 58:36Chamath Palihapitiya?

  So, so we don't know, uh, Pennsylvania tonight. So if it's down to a few thousand votes, Philly, I think is going to break. I think you can count that as three or 400,000 votes.

• 58:49Speaker 05

  Oh, it should be, it should be 500,000. It should be 500,000.

• 58:53Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Well, then 500,000 would carry the state for Joe Biden.

• 58:56Speaker 05

  Yeah, they've, they've counted 100,000. So they've got.

• 58:59Chamath Palihapitiya?

  So I'm gonna, I'm gonna stick with Biden here because I think that, uh, that Philadelphia vote count is, uh, crucial. It turns out that it may, it may come down to Philly. Which, by the way, what an incredibly poignant place for the election to be won and lost.

• 59:15Speaker 05

  The city of underdogs, the city of Rocky. Uh, I, I think we can safely say that Biden is going to win the popular vote and it might be by four points, five points, which means that there is a discrepancy, uh, between the popular vote and electoral college. We're going to hear a lot about that because, uh,

• 59:33Jason Calacanis?

  I, I am going to go with Biden because. My heart is going to be so broken if this country picks this sociopath to run it for another four years after his absolute failure to do even the most modest things to battle coronavirus. And the strife he has caused between Americans and his personal style is so heartbreaking to me that I don't know that I can believe in America if they put this absolutely sociopathic person who has the least amount of character of any other human being anybody on this

• 1:00:17Jason Calacanis?

  call has ever met in their lives. It would be a complete, absolute utter disgrace if he makes it into office for a second term.

• 1:00:25Speaker 05

  Zach, are you going to respond to that?

• 1:00:28David Sacks?

  Well, look, I mean, the American people...

• 1:00:30Jason Calacanis?

  Hold on. It's an existential threat to the entire planet and humanity and democracy across the world if this country puts that maniac into office again for four goddamn fucking more years.

• 1:00:45Speaker 05

  I'll make a prediction.

• 1:00:46Jason Calacanis?

  And that's my personal feeling. I can't, I don't care what the statistics say right now, in my heart, I cannot give that man even a benefit of the doubt.

• 1:00:56David Friedberg?

  If he wins...

• 1:00:57Jason Calacanis?

  He's garbage.

• 1:00:58David Friedberg?

  If he wins, is Fauci the first guy fired?

• 1:01:00Speaker 05

  Oh, I think you can count on it. Fauci and Christopher Wray, the FBI director, and...

• 1:01:06David Friedberg?

  He's gone, right?

• 1:01:07Speaker 05

  And increasingly, maybe Bill Barr, too. Somehow, Bill Barr is not enough of a sinkofen.

• 1:01:12Jason Calacanis?

  And anybody else who has any shred of credibility or honor is gone.

• 1:01:16Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I want to, I want to just say to J Cal, I really empathize with how you're feeling because I have never, as a person that has been a citizen of three countries, when I moved to America in 2000, I have never really, I mean, you know, edge cases, yeah, I've felt some racism here, obviously, you know, but I've never felt so unwanted. And I remember 2016, for the first time in my life, feeling a level of insecurity I had never felt before because I was so afraid, I didn't know what it meant for Donald Trump to be elected. Four years later...

• 1:01:55Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Um, you know, in, in so many ways, uh, it's like two realms of a coin, you know? Um, I leave my house and, uh, you can just see that there's just so much pain and divisiveness. I come back into my little world and things seem to be really great. And that's a, a really, really terrible feeling to have, Jason. So I, I know exactly what you're talking about. I wanted to tell you guys, um, you know, I, there was like a, I, I've always been sort of like, okay, Biden's gonna win, Biden's gonna win, Biden's gonna win. And then there's a weird thing that I did, and you guys can see it in the FEC filings, but I gave a million bucks this year in the elections, but I gave 750 to the Senate

• 1:02:39Chamath Palihapitiya?

  and I gave 250 to Biden. And I didn't understand why I did it. Um, and I, and I, and I explained it to Nat as, she's like, why did you do it that way? And the best way that I could explain it is I, I think that there is so much I don't know about what is driving the vote for president, that I wanted to make sure that, you know, there are checks and balances, and the best check and balance was to, you know, make sure that there was actually some Senate, um, check and balance on Biden, I mean, on, on Trump. So, you know, I'm, I'm gonna, Jason, I'm gonna accept the result. Um, I'm gonna try to figure out what the fuck I don't know, because this is yet another

• 1:03:23Chamath Palihapitiya?

  layer of, I clearly don't know what the hell is going on. Um, but I, I can tell you pretty assuredly, guys, uh, any result that's called tonight, I think is going to be, uh, incomplete, because they're not gonna call Pennsylvania, because they're not gonna call Philly. And so if there are, in fact, three, no, I think that the exact math is about 350,000 votes that show up in Philadelphia, a gap of 350,000 votes that show up in Philly, um, Biden will, uh, do what he needs to do. By the way, how many people live in Philly? Does anybody know? How many registered voters? Friedberg, is that, is that on the?

• 1:04:04David Friedberg?

  Philly, there's supposed to be, it's supposed to be like half a million votes coming in there, and I think they've counted 100,000. Um, and so...

• 1:04:11Speaker 05

  Oh, I think it'd be more than half a million. Usually the DIMs, uh, margin is about half a million.

• 1:04:16David Friedberg?

  The margin?

• 1:04:17Speaker 05

  Yeah. Philly is, uh, I want to say our fifth or sixth largest market.

• 1:04:22David Friedberg?

  They've actually got it listed on the...

• 1:04:23Speaker 05

  It's a pretty significant population.

• 1:04:25David Friedberg?

  Click on that, that link I sent you there, Nick. And then if you click on, uh, click to view precincts reporting, you can, uh, see the...

• 1:04:33Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:04:34David Friedberg?

  Sorry, it's, it's tough to read.

• 1:04:37Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Yeah, I mean, we care about Allegheny. And then what else do we care about?

• 1:04:42Speaker 05

  You care about Philly and you care about those immediate suburbs outside of Philly, like Box County and Chester County and, um, there's, there's four or five ringed suburbs of Philly that used to be the uh, centerpiece of country club republicanism. They're the, the counties that elected Arlen Specter to the senate. But over time, as the Republicans moved right, they moved more to, toward the Democrats.

• 1:05:05David Friedberg?

  Michael, do you know why they're gonna stop reporting, um, mail-in ballots tonight? Why would they do that?

• 1:05:10Speaker 05

  They just... Probably just, uh, to go home and, uh, sleep for a while before they, uh, pick it up tomorrow. Pennsylvania, unfortunately, and Michigan as well, are states that aren't allowed to start tabulating until all the polls are closed. Uh, that's why those, uh, states in the Sun Belt, we were all looking for, uh, to be a early bellwether because they can count.

• 1:05:31Chamath Palihapitiya?

  4.81%, this is unbelievable. Unbelievable. But what are we seeing here? What's unbelievable, Chamath? So what that means, Jason, is that, uh, in Philadelphia, there are 1,706 precincts, okay? Of those, only 82 have reported the, their ballot tallies. So you have 95% of the precincts in Philly not reporting. If you take Michael's framework and say there's a swing of 500,000 votes if it goes historically Democrat, as it has in the past, you attack on 500,000 net new votes to, um,

• 1:06:13Chamath Palihapitiya?

  to Biden and, you know, and, uh, he, uh, he ekes out a win.

• 1:06:18Speaker 05

  Yeah, it, it goes blue probably in that scenario, yeah. So then it be, uh, it becomes about... But remember though, if Trump is holding, um, if he, if he manages to hold Michigan... He could lose Pennsylvania. It wouldn't matter. Uh, he had a little bit of a margin. He had, what did he have? 306 electoral votes last time. Uh, so if he holds everything he had minus Pennsylvania, actually he could lose Michigan too, as long as he carried Wisconsin. He has, he has to have one of those two. But I think Wisconsin's difficult, so.

• 1:06:52Chamath Palihapitiya?

  By the way, uh, for all of our, uh, listeners and watchers in New Jersey, they legalize recreational pots. So go out and get yourself some.

• 1:07:01Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, I'm gonna, I'm, I, I just took four gummies after my little tirade there because

• 1:07:08Jason Calacanis?

  the two Xanax weren't working.

• 1:07:12Jason Calacanis?

  So that's gonna get really strange for me in about an hour.

• 1:07:17Jason Calacanis?

  Just to go back, the reason. I mean, are we gonna crack a bottle of wine or what? Somebody.

• 1:07:21Speaker 05

  I already got, I already got one. Yeah, well, this, this is mostly coffee, but trust me, there's some Irish whiskey in here too.

• 1:07:27Phil Hellmuth?

  I guess I'm speaking to you, but it looks like I'm seeing reports of the sound of Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

• 1:07:33Speaker 05

  Unfortunately, all four of those states are gonna probably take at least a day. Arizona, three days, I think to count. Um, maybe not this year because so much of the vote was early. Maybe it'll move faster, but they are notoriously slow counters. So settle in. It could be the weekend before we have a result.

• 1:07:53Phil Hellmuth?

  Wow.

• 1:07:55Jason Calacanis?

  Okay. So let, let me just drop this. If we don't know tonight,

• 1:08:01Jason Calacanis?

  what is going to happen over the next week?

• 1:08:06Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Well, we're gonna be, we're gonna be.

• 1:08:08Phil Hellmuth?

  We're gonna need a lot of gummies, Jason.

• 1:08:11Jason Calacanis?

  No, I mean, joking aside, there are people.

• 1:08:14Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I think everybody's gonna be tense, Jay. I think, I don't, I don't think you're gonna see a lot of action one way or the other. I think that people, I think people in America are incredibly good people. I think that folks are just gonna sit tight and hope that the folks whose job it is to do their job, do their job.

• 1:08:30Jason Calacanis?

  I I but I I hope you're right Chamath, but when I see a group of trucks surrounding people's cars, when I see people bringing guns on both sides, horrible people on both sides, bringing guns malicious style to specifically taunt each other, when you see people getting shot in the street, chasing each other down over politics, this is something that has not happened in our lifetime. I mean, Phil's very old, so he kind of remembers the 60s. But for the rest of us under 68, we we have not witnessed Americans shooting each other in the street over politics. We have not witnessed people taking people out of their

• 1:09:11Jason Calacanis?

  lives because of politics. And this is got Trump's fingerprints on it from top to bottom.

• 1:09:18David Sacks?

  You you mean since the summer? I mean, what about all the looting and rioting and protests?

• 1:09:23Jason Calacanis?

  My point is, when Trump got in office, his character and his ability to trigger people, his ability to abuse people, his rhetoric, put everybody on tilt. I'm not saying people looting stores are correct. What I'm saying is George Bush and Ronald Reagan, your heroes, Bill Clinton, Obama, other people's heroes on this call, there was a there was a kindness in our differences. And when people conceded, they conceded with grace. And this individual, this horrible human being.

• 1:10:00David Sacks?

  Bush wasn't a hero of mine, but um.

• 1:10:02Jason Calacanis?

  But putting it aside.

• 1:10:04David Sacks?

  Yeah, I think Reagan was.

• 1:10:05Jason Calacanis?

  Maybe Bush Senior was.

• 1:10:06David Sacks?

  Yeah.

• 1:10:07Jason Calacanis?

  We had a classiness and we had a mutual respect for each other that this deranged individual has removed from America. And I fear for what's gonna happen in the next week. Because if people were shooting each other leading up to this, I think the next week could be incredibly violent.

• 1:10:30Jason Calacanis?

  Thank you for that.

• 1:10:31Speaker 05

  You are fake news.

• 1:10:33David Sacks?

  Now, look, Jason, I'm not going to like disagree with you about any of that. The only thing I would add, though, is I do think that the media has been a co-equal partner in sowing this chaos and divisiveness. Because, you know, we used to have a media that thought its job was objectivity and neutrality.

• 1:10:53Jason Calacanis?

  Yes.

• 1:10:53David Sacks?

  And they ripped the umpire jersey off their back to go after this guy, Trump. And.

• 1:10:59Jason Calacanis?

  And why do you think they did?

• 1:11:01Speaker 05

  Money.

• 1:11:01David Sacks?

  Well.

• 1:11:02Speaker 05

  It's very profitable. Trump, Trump has made big money.

• 1:11:05Jason Calacanis?

  Picking a side, picking a side is definitely more profitable, get more subscribers. It might also be that they were absolutely suffering from Trump derangement syndrome from the fact that the person lies and that he wants to separate children from their parents at the border.

• 1:11:20David Sacks?

  Listen, yes, but they're supposed to, they have a job to do. They're supposed to be neutral. They're supposed to be irrational opposition to Trump. Yeah, but exactly, but the, but the reason why Trump is doing well or better is because the opposition to him is increasingly irrational. And, and people have voted for Trump to, to, to basically give the middle finger to, to, to the, to the media who, you know, again, who are taking sides to these big tech censors, you know, who don't want us to read things that are critical of Trump. You know, and so on down the line. I mean, I, I tweeted earlier, I mean, Rich Lowry had a great post explaining why if Trump was going to win, why, you know, why, why that would happen.

• 1:12:03David Sacks?

  And it's because he's the only middle finger available to these people. And, uh, you know, I don't disagree with you. He's not being, no one's voting for Trump because of his integrity, perceived integrity.

• 1:12:15Speaker 05

  Oh, no.

• 1:12:15David Sacks?

  Or.

• 1:12:16Jason Calacanis?

  Integrity. It's the first time I've heard integrity in the same sentence as Trump.

• 1:12:20David Sacks?

  I, you're, I'm agreeing with that point. I'm saying they're not voting for him because of that. They're not voting for him because of even a second term agenda. They're voting for him in order to, to stop. Cultural forces they don't like.

• 1:12:35Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I have two things to say.

• 1:12:37Jason Calacanis?

  Decidedly, by the way.

• 1:12:39Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Two things to say.

• 1:12:42Chamath Palihapitiya?

  According to

• 1:12:45Chamath Palihapitiya?

  the national political writer for the Philly Inquirer, Jonathan Tamari, his tweet of 7:35 PM said, actually, it was even greater than we thought. There are still 2.2 million mail-in ballots to be counted in PA, about 87% of the total. So if that's true, then we have that and Philly, number one. The second thing I wanted to say is that if you actually look at the some counts right now in Pennsylvania, it's 371, 591 votes. That's separate Trump and Biden.

• 1:13:21Chamath Palihapitiya?

  So it's, you know, not that much, guys, if 2.2 million votes are outstanding.

• 1:13:28David Friedberg?

  Yeah, but if it's, if it's two, if it's, let's see, 60% or two third kind of to one third slash 40%. And it's not, let's say it comes in under that, right? They probably counted a couple hundred thousand already. I mean, it is still pretty close.

• 1:13:43Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Yeah.

• 1:13:44David Friedberg?

  Um, really close. Let me, um, let me ask, Chamath, do you think that part of the reason we're seeing futures markets jump? And the dollar jump and

• 1:13:59David Friedberg?

  uh, and all the kind of obviously correlated assets moving the way they are is not necessarily because of a Trump win, but because the risk of a hung election seems to be coming out of the system right now. That it seems like we're going to have a much more clear outcome here than we thought we would. Florida is going to be much more clear. That's always a worry state. Um, Georgia is going to be clear. Obviously, we've still got Pennsylvania to kind of figure out here. But it it seems like this is going to break one way or another, whereas a lot of folks were concerned we'd end up in the court fighting over hanging chads for months. And there was concern in the markets for months about that. Um, do we think?

• 1:14:38Chamath Palihapitiya?

  No, I think that people were basically, um, look, there's a reason to be long Biden in the markets, which is essentially that there are certain sectors of the economy that would have done very well. Um, those sectors of the economy were probably slightly different than Trump's. Um, under a Trump regime, the reality is that corporate taxes broadly speaking are not going to go up. And so, you know, you can forecast higher earnings power for every stock. And so, everything goes up. Um, I think what's happening right now is more of that relief trade of maybe Trump was winning. So you could be kind of long everything blindly. Um, but you know, the, the real canary in the coal mine was like, if you looked at tech futures, tech futures was just going bonkers when they

• 1:15:23Chamath Palihapitiya?

  thought he was going to win. Uh, because they will probably disproportionately benefit of just having to pay no taxes because they pay no taxes today. Um, I, um, so, so that's like, kind of like what I, what I think is happening on, on that side.

• 1:15:36Phil Hellmuth?

  I mean, Trump is very pro-business. That's why the markets are ripping, right?

• 1:15:40David Friedberg?

  I think, I don't know. I mean, I feel like there was a real concern, like there was a, a non-zero case here, call it a 30% case, that we were going to get stuck for a few months with uncertainty and litigation about where this election was going to go.

• 1:15:52Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I think, I think it's fair to say that we, we still, we, we could still have that, David, because we don't, if, if this goes to tomorrow, I think it's fair to say that, that the game theory would tell you that tomorrow, whoever loses Pennsylvania should ask for an immediate recount.

• 1:16:08David Friedberg?

  Right.

• 1:16:08Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Right. And I don't know what the, they have to. I don't know what the process for that is. If whoever loses, um, Arizona should ask for an immediate recount. You know, it, whatever is possible under the law, I think both Biden and Trump will exercise because let's face it, this is the highest stakes possible. And so you would hate to not, if it's a margin of a few thousands of votes, or tens of thousands of votes, or even 100,000 votes, and you're allowed to do a recount. So, um, if that's the case tomorrow morning, if we go to bed in another hour and a half, or if we finish this thing in another hour, and there is no winner, uh, clear winner, I think markets will be back to sort of modestly risk off tomorrow.

• 1:16:49Phil Hellmuth?

  So David, your thesis is that, your thesis is a clear winner, the markets rip either way?

• 1:16:55David Friedberg?

  I think, yeah, clear winner. It's just like there was a lot of grinding expected here that was going to cause a lot of, you know, trepidation and bouncing for a while that folks were concerned about. And if you feel like you're going to have a clear election outcome, or whether or not it gets litigated, if you feel clear about where it's going to go, because it's 55, 45, you know, sure, they're going to ask for a recount.

• 1:17:14Phil Hellmuth?

  It's good news for everybody. It makes sense.

• 1:17:16David Sacks?

  Look, I think the market does not want those Trump tax cuts repealed. Stocks just ripped after Trump passed those corporate tax cuts. So if either Trump wins, or the Republicans hold on to the Senate, then that would be a reason for the market to rip. Doesn't mean, it doesn't mean Trump has to win, but if we have divided government, gridlock.

• 1:17:38Phil Hellmuth?

  So between the two of you, the best, best possible scenario for the market is if Trump clearly wins.

• 1:17:43Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, I think, I think we have another bestie on the line.

• 1:17:46David Friedberg?

  Is it the case, if we look at the Senate races, I don't know if anyone, I don't know if there's an easy way for us to pull this up, but we have a sense of...

• 1:17:54Jason Calacanis?

  Go pull that up, David, and I just want to introduce our next bestie guest, Brad Gerson is here. He runs a multi-billion dollar, I believe you would call it a hedge fund or a fund.

• 1:18:07Brad Gerstner?

  Yeah.

• 1:18:08Jason Calacanis?

  And he invests large swaths of money in the American economy, has a very big insight.

• 1:18:13Phil Hellmuth?

  Is he the best travel investor of all time, Jason Calacanis?

• 1:18:16Jason Calacanis?

  He's up there, but certainly I would, I would guess, Brad, with COVID and airlines being grounded, this has not been the easiest year for you. So apologies.

• 1:18:27Chamath Palihapitiya?

  No, Brad, Brad just made $10 billion on Snowflake. He's fine.

• 1:18:30Jason Calacanis?

  But Snowflake made up for it.

• 1:18:35Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Brad, what's going on? Tell us what's going on. What do you know?

• 1:18:38Brad Gerstner?

  Well, hi all. You know, it's a, it's a fascinating night. I mean, all markets are ripping. We've had a massive reversal in the NASDAQ, a massive reversal in the bond market. And it, it appears that, you know, everybody's now, who is worried about a Trump victory, is now celebrating a Trump victory. You know, one of the things people didn't understand about a clear Biden victory is the underlying concern in the bond market.

• 1:19:15Brad Gerstner?

  Right? If there's one thing to explain the expansion in multiples in the market this year is the fact that rates have collapsed, right? So the 30 and 10 year went from, you know, a couple hundred basis points 20 months ago to basically 50 basis points in August of this year. We've seen them back up about 40% over the course of the last couple of months. We see him backing up again tonight. The fact is the, the market is seriously concerned about higher rates, which are the result of both a turbocharged economy, too much stimulus

• 1:19:53Brad Gerstner?

  on top of, you know, uh, vaccines and prophylactics for COVID. And so, you know, if you ask me, you know, we get all excited about the election, we get all excited about stimulus and tax policy, but the biggest elephant in the room is the Fed and rates. That's the 80 to 90% factor in the market this year in Q4 of 18. And so what I'm, what we're looking at, you know, we see the, the NASDAQ now up 350 bips, the futures up 350 bips. So that says Trump's winning. We're not going to break up the tech companies. We see the S and P starting to rise again, and we see the bond market falling, saying that we're going to have lower stimulus,

• 1:20:32Brad Gerstner?

  right? In the market. Um, so, you know, I, I, I've heard, I've heard y'all talk about, you know, a clear victory certainly is better than not a clear victory. Uh, but, you know, notwithstanding our own fucking anxiety that we have to live with for the next four years, in the short run, the market is clearly voting on, um, you know, is, is, is voting that Trump is a palatable alternative. Um, and I would tell you to keep your eyes on rates, as much as you are in the market.

• 1:21:08Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Brad, more, more than a, a great manager of money, you're actually a great human being, but you're also very wired into the Dems. Um, what are the Dems getting wrong if they lose today?

• 1:21:21Brad Gerstner?

  Well, you know, first, this is an upset already tonight. Let's call it, this is a massive upset relative to expectations.

• 1:21:31Phil Hellmuth?

  Win or lose?

• 1:21:32Brad Gerstner?

  The reversal in, in the betting markets, the reversal in the stock market. You know, I was just earlier tonight, you know, a well-known organizers' house on the Democratic side. I mean, there is despondency. This is a massive upset by Trump. And once again, a massive misread by the progressives and organizers in the Democratic Party. You know, I had my 84-year-old mother out here from Michigan over the weekend. And I'll tell you that ordinary people are made to be, to feel bad about themselves by people living in these parts.

• 1:22:13Brad Gerstner?

  The sanctimony that exists in urban areas, you know, and coastal elites is just, it's, you know, this is what we're seeing people vote against, right? The idea that you're going to close down the state of Michigan, not allow people to take their boats out on lakes. This is just, you know, not something that people are willing to tolerate. And I think more than anything else tonight, you see a protest vote against sanctimony. And this is just ordinary people saying that, you know, let us live our lives. Don't act so much smarter than us.

• 1:22:54Brad Gerstner?

  You know, and, you know, I asked my 84-year-old mother, you know, who she voted for. She goes, "Don't ask me who I voted for. That's none of your business," right? Like, that's her way of telling me, right? That, you know, that she's frustrated by how people in San Francisco make her feel, living in Michigan. I think that's, I think that's

• 1:23:18Phil Hellmuth?

  Brad, that's so smart, but David Sacks, before you talk, he's talking about you.

• 1:23:23Brad Gerstner?

  Well, no, look, I mean, I'm on Twitter and I echo extremely, I mean, it's usually VCs. Basically, they can't comprehend how somebody could have a political opinion that's different than them without that person literally being evil. I mean, I see this on Twitter over and over and over again. I'm like, really? Yeah, but, but, but, but this is like most of Silicon Valley and I'm just like, look, I mean, political opinions are like assholes. I mean, everyone's got one. And to think that yours is a lot prettier than everybody else's. I mean, it's a bit ridiculous.

• 1:23:58Jason Calacanis?

  Welcome, everybody to the podcast. If you're just tuning in.

• 1:24:02Brad Gerstner?

  Well, the family hour just ended. There we go.

• 1:24:05Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Wait, Brad, Brad, can I ask a question?

• 1:24:07Brad Gerstner?

  Sure.

• 1:24:07Chamath Palihapitiya?

  What, um,

• 1:24:10Chamath Palihapitiya?

  like, what, what do we do?

• 1:24:14Brad Gerstner?

  Yeah, you know, for me, listen, a Trump victory, the reality is we've learned to tolerate the anxiety over the last four years, and I think the market's fully prepared to uh, to manage its way through another four years of Trump. So I think that's, you know, the reason we're seeing the, the, the futures react the way they are is it's a whole lot of nothing. I mean, the fact of the matter is-

• 1:24:37Phil Hellmuth?

  Jamal's asking, how do we get off of our horses if we're on horses, the social elites?

• 1:24:41Brad Gerstner?

  Well, I mean, um, this is going to take a complete rewiring, right? Like an abandonment of, um, you know, the, I mean, listen, you, you and I all know the exodus of people out of the Bay Area right now. Right? The fact of the matter is like pragmatic politics in the Democratic Party in the state of California vacated long ago. And, you know, that is not a recipe for victory. It's not a recipe for victory at a national level. It's not a recipe for victory or tolerable victory at a state level. I think we're going to have the single largest migration of economic, uh, the single largest economic migration in the history of this country.

• 1:25:25Brad Gerstner?

  The convergence of COVID, which allows people to work from anywhere. And the risk of changing tax policies in states like California is going to cause mass economic migration. And I think that people are voting with their feet and they're voting with their wallets and they're voting, you know, tonight in in loud numbers, no matter where this where this comes down, this is an upset and a defeat for what Democrats expected to occur tonight.

• 1:25:50Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Do you do you buy the framing, Brad, that this is about political correctness versus cancel culture?

• 1:25:57Brad Gerstner?

  Yeah, I think that's I think that's a big part of it. I mean, I, you know, um,

• 1:26:03Brad Gerstner?

  I think it comes out, it's it's amplified this year because of COVID, but it comes down to something very simple, which I talked about.

• 1:26:13Brad Gerstner?

  You know, sometimes my sister likes to call me fancy pants, right? She's like, oh, you fancy people who live in San Francisco, you have all the answers, right? This is just the way that people in Indiana and Michigan and Ohio, they're made to feel every day. You know, they'll sit around watching Fox News. These are not people who are racist, right? Chamath, I heard you say earlier tonight, the idea that Trump could pull what he's pulling. And yet, if you talk to all of our friends, they would have you believe that it was just a small band of, you know, racist pickup drivers carrying Trump flags. I mean, they are their head is in the sand.

• 1:26:53Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Yeah.

• 1:26:53Brad Gerstner?

  This is this is CEOs.

• 1:26:56Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Yeah.

• 1:26:56Brad Gerstner?

  You know, these are business owners. These are small business owners. These are farmers. These are old people. These are young people. I mean, the the millennials, you can't find a millennial in the state of Indiana or Michigan who supports Biden.

• 1:27:09David Sacks?

  Right.

• 1:27:09Brad Gerstner?

  You can't find them.

• 1:27:11David Sacks?

  And I mean, just to add to that point about what they think about people in San Francisco, why shouldn't they think that when tech giants and the people who work at these big tech companies like Twitter and Facebook are asserting a right to censor articles that they don't like and trying to assert a power over what the American people get to see and read? I mean, what a campaign issue that was for Trump in the last two weeks? I mean, whatever Twitter and Facebook thought they were doing to protect or help the Biden campaign? I mean, what a blunder. I mean, to give Trump the issue of censorship in the last two weeks. And then the extraordinary thing, you know, we had that that congressional hearing in the Senate Commerce Committee that I wrote a blog about. And the amazing thing is, right on the heels of that, after that hearing, when we heard Jack Dorsey get that.

• 1:27:57David Sacks?

  You know, he just got grilled. He got ripped apart by the senators. Twitter doubled down on censorship after that. There was an article by Jonathan Turley talking about they had censored a whole new batch of accounts. And so if anything, you know, it'll be really interesting to see. I think, you know, if you think back four years ago, Facebook was really, for whatever reason, became the scapegoat. For the election, I think this time around is going to be Twitter because they have been so arrogant and their assertion of their right to censor viewpoints that are a lot. And if the Republicans hold on to the Senate and/or the presidency, I think you're going to see. Jack Dorsey become the poster child for this new censorship that they're going to target.

• 1:28:38Jason Calacanis?

  And the paradox, Friedberg, is that. Had they just let that New York Post story be tweeted. Because it's the New York Post. This is, I mean, you may not like the New York Post. It may have a sordid past or reputation. But if that had been a New York Times story, Washington Post story, or an MSNBC story, or a CNN story, it would not have been banned. Because it's a Rupert Murdoch, New York Post story, and because it was salacious. Somebody mid-level inside of Twitter decided to ban it. How much of that do you think? Plays into what we're seeing here tonight, Friedberg, which is. This is not.

• 1:29:24Jason Calacanis?

  A small event. This is a large group of people saying. I don't want anything to do with the Democratic Party anymore.

• 1:29:31David Friedberg?

  I just think back to 2016 and. You know, everyone has their own priorities, their own individual things that matter to them. And I remember in 2016 or leading up to it, I spent a lot of time in what we call kind of the Rust Belt and the Farm Belt. And if you'll remember, this was around the time of kind of the transgender bathroom, you know, movement.

• 1:29:58Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Carolina, yeah.

• 1:29:59David Friedberg?

  And this was felt very much like a coastal elite topic of interest. If you're in the Rust Belt and the Farm Belt, you're like, what the fuck? How is this possibly something people are spending time on and arguing about and thinking about? And the disconnect between the priorities of the individuals that live in the vast part of the United States versus what they read about and hear about others treat as their priority, I think is what partially helped support Trump getting elected in the first place. Because the things that mattered to them that they felt were highly consequential were completely unrelated and not being paid attention to, while other folks, you know, that had

• 1:30:40David Friedberg?

  the money and the power in the big cities were focused on social matters and social issues and liberal decisions that they thought were inconsequential or shouldn't be a priority. And I think that fast forward to 2020, and it hasn't moved in the right direction, it's moved in the wrong direction, where the disconnect is no longer a passive difference of priority, it's actually become an active interest moving against you. And so if you live in the Corn Belt or the Rust Belt or vast parts of rural America, to your point, you're now not only feeling that there's this disconnect, but you're also feeling like this point of view is becoming overwhelming and stopping you from having a point of view.

• 1:31:22David Friedberg?

  And I think whether your point of view is rooted in fact or not, you can base that however you want, it just feels like it's becoming a silencing effect and not just kind of ignoring the effect.

• 1:31:34Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Let me just jump in here. I want to come back to this, but I want to just jump to something that Bogut just tweeted. Andrew Bogut, thank you for this. Detroit, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee are all planning to post vote counts tomorrow as they work through absentee backlog. So if we look at the counts, that really could mean that Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan are either too close to call or not even yet ready to be called until tomorrow morning.

• 1:32:06Jason Calacanis?

  I think let's take a pause here and let's go through what the swing states are and where they stand at this very moment. Arizona is an important toss-up state, correct? Let's pull up Arizona, Nick. Let's all just take a moment to look at Arizona. We're going to go through about six or seven of these states and just get our bearing right now because when we did the quick survey about 45 minutes ago, four of us believed Trump was gonna win. Two of us believed, one of us emotionally, one of us somewhat emotionally believed. That's where we were at.

• 1:32:40Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Guys, guys, before you start this, hold on, before you start this, I just want to read a tweet. With two tweets. Number one from Nick Bilton. When do we get to vote on when we fire Nate Silver? And the second one, wait, wait, the second one, which is even funnier. He's named Nate Silver because all his picks come in second place.

• 1:33:04Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, ouch. Wow.

• 1:33:08David Sacks?

  I mean, I was tweeting you guys before the election. I mean, the Nate Silver thing was a joke. He was, first of all, he was saying that Biden was 90% favorite. And at the same time, he said that if Trump won Pennsylvania, then he would become the favorite. But you knew that Trump was a few points of the margin of error in Pennsylvania. So how can you be 90% favorite, but Pennsylvania is sort of neck and neck? I mean, even his own internal projections weren't consistent with each other.

• 1:33:37Phil Hellmuth?

  I mean, here's Nate Silver, one of the best sports predictors in history. He's been an absolute genius. He stepped into politics and now you guys are lashing.

• 1:33:44Speaker 05

  Yeah, but this is the worst case of analytics since Tampa Bay pulled their pitcher in the sixth inning of the World Series.

• 1:33:52Jason Calacanis?

  I mean, if we look at what's happening here, it's very clear that there are people who are either lying to the pollsters because they're embarrassed about their choice, or they may actively be trolling the pollsters. So when a pollster calls them, they lie to them to have this exact moment happen. Just like the TikTokers all registered for a Trump event. So now we have a level of trolling going on on a national level. Hashtag poll.

• 1:34:22Speaker 05

  I think there's a simpler explanation and that's that. Maybe we're not all trolls. I think the simpler explanation is that pollsters are empiricists and they're experts. And like a lot of experts, you can kind of, you can kind of interpret the Trump phenomenon of overperforming now two elections in a row is a kind of revolt against the experts. And they don't see their biases the way they should. They're blind to certain things. There's really no excuse for how bad they missed this one.

• 1:34:55Phil Hellmuth?

  Michael, they may have been experts yesterday, but they're not experts today.

• 1:34:59Speaker 05

  Well, this is, I mean, this is what Trump does. This is why people support him in spite of the fact that I don't think anyone disagrees with Jason's opinion of his, of his character is that they love sticking it to the, to the eggheads, you know?

• 1:35:12Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Brad, Brad, Brad, what happens to media? Like what happens to how we conduct ourselves? Like, do you, do you read the New York Times tomorrow and think, wow, I'm going to trust the Times? I'm not saying you did before, but I'm just using it as a generality to sort of ask the question, like, what happens to media?

• 1:35:30Brad Gerstner?

  No, I think, I think our belief in, you know, all of these polls and all of these mainstream press, I mean, this validates the arguments effectively that Trump has been making, right? That you've been told lies, that these polls were lies, that everybody was trying to manipulate you. I mean, it's, this is a validation of those who are flipping the middle finger at Washington and at the coast and are saying, we're not going to be told how to believe, how to think, how to vote.

• 1:35:58Chamath Palihapitiya?

  How to wear masks.

• 1:36:01Brad Gerstner?

  How to wear masks. And, you know,

• 1:36:04Chamath Palihapitiya?

  So maybe there's a dangerous side to this.

• 1:36:05Brad Gerstner?

  A hundred percent.

• 1:36:06Chamath Palihapitiya?

  It's the end of expertise. I mean, who, who, who can we ever trust? I mean, and this is Putin's

• 1:36:11David Sacks?

  Ironically, it's the experts who got masks wrong. Remember that at the time that I was saying that we should wear masks, the WHO was saying we shouldn't. So,

• 1:36:21Speaker 05

  And they were lying. They were deliberately lying to keep PPE from being overrun.

• 1:36:26David Sacks?

  So the experts have done a horrible job on COVID too, Jason. I mean, look, I think that's

• 1:36:31Jason Calacanis?

  Yes, I know, but now the cynicism of Trump and his approach to absolutely undermine Fauci and say to admonish people wearing masks while on stage is a level of danger and is a dereliction of duty. That's insane. We know that mask work. You actually were a proponent of it.

• 1:36:52David Sacks?

  Yes, of course. Masks should never have become a political issue.

• 1:36:55Jason Calacanis?

  Donald Trump last week said, don't wear a mask.

• 1:36:58David Sacks?

  No, he never said that.

• 1:36:59Jason Calacanis?

  He was, he literally made fun of a person wearing a mask. Let's just run through each of the states right now. Arizona.

• 1:37:07David Sacks?

  Can I, wait, can I, can I just respond to that, Jason, real quick?

• 1:37:10Jason Calacanis?

  Yes, you may, of course.

• 1:37:11David Sacks?

  Look, look, I, you know, I wrote a blog post, but going back to April 1st, saying that we should, that masks should be the policy and it should never have become a political issue. Okay. It should have been a bipartisan response and it's unfortunate it became a political issue. But, and I'm not, not forgiving that. And it took Trump way too long to get on board with masks. I think right around the time my blog was published, a few days afterwards, first he said it was optional. You can do it if you want. It took him about another three months to actually say that masks were a good idea. I agree that had he just gone all in on a mask policy, I think this would not even be a close election. I mean, that was probably the single biggest blunder that he made politically this year.

• 1:37:53Jason Calacanis?

  100% agree.

• 1:37:54David Sacks?

  Okay. So we agree on that, but, but, but look, but you're, you're missing the other half of it, which is what is our COVID policy going to be today? And the reality is that Joe Biden and all these blue state governors are still on the record as being in favor of lockdowns. And in fact, they are doing lockdowns. The only reason why Michigan and Wisconsin, but I say especially Michigan would ever be in play tonight was because of lockdowns.

• 1:38:18Phil Hellmuth?

  Absolutely.

• 1:38:19David Sacks?

  Agree.

• 1:38:20Phil Hellmuth?

  Yes, this is a resounding rebuke of lockdowns.

• 1:38:24Jason Calacanis?

  Let, let's just zip through these real quick. Arizona, pull it up, Nick. Arizona, here we are. Biden 54% if we round out, 45 for Donald Trump, 75%. Looks like Arizona is going to Biden. Next up, let's take a quick look at Iowa.

• 1:38:45Jason Calacanis?

  Iowa 64% in and we're in essentially a dead heat with

• 1:38:50Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:38:50David Friedberg?

  Iowa's going to Trump, Jason.

• 1:38:52Speaker 05

  I was going to Trump. You can see how that numbers come down.

• 1:38:56David Friedberg?

  Yeah.

• 1:38:56Speaker 05

  As the election day vote starts to trickle in, that's going to Trump.

• 1:39:00Jason Calacanis?

  So they were one of the states that did the drop off ballots, mail in ballots first.

• 1:39:06Speaker 05

  Yes, I think I think that's fair to say, yeah.

• 1:39:08Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, Ohio critically important. Let's take a look at Ohio while we're here. Ohio.

• 1:39:15Speaker 05

  Wow, that's really flipped hard.

• 1:39:17Jason Calacanis?

  With a commanding lead.

• 1:39:18Speaker 05

  Yeah, you can kiss that one goodbye. Yeah.

• 1:39:21Jason Calacanis?

  Ohio.

• 1:39:21Speaker 05

  Ohio's done.

• 1:39:23Jason Calacanis?

  North Carolina, we are now within 1.

• 1:39:26Brad Gerstner?

  Can we just all agree if we were, I mean, right, if we're momentum investors? I mean, this thing is, this is a disaster for Biden right now.

• 1:39:37Chamath Palihapitiya?

  This is a disaster.

• 1:39:37Brad Gerstner?

  This is a disaster for Biden. And on top of this, all our talk is about the presidency. They're not going to get the Senate either.

• 1:39:45Speaker 05

  No, North, uh, North, uh, Tillis is running ahead of Trump in North Carolina. So I think he's home free. And while the vote in Maine is not fully in yet, there's only about 41%. Collins has a 40,000 vote lead, which in tiny.

• 1:39:59Brad Gerstner?

  If Susan Collins keeps her seat, that is the biggest, that that is like the mega upset. The Democrats were already counting.

• 1:40:07Speaker 05

  They were targeting her two years ago after she voted for Kavanaugh.

• 1:40:11Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, okay.

• 1:40:12Brad Gerstner?

  The best, the, the.

• 1:40:14Jason Calacanis?

  As we go through this, by the way, just keep this in mind, CNN right now shows, I mean, I don't, CNN's head must be up their ass or we don't know what we're doing. But they show 192 to 114 Biden.

• 1:40:26Speaker 05

  Well, yeah, because they called, they called California.

• 1:40:28David Friedberg?

  Right.

• 1:40:28Speaker 05

  They called California when the polls closed. So that's 55 that went, yeah.

• 1:40:33Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, North Carolina, here we go. Uh, we, we, or we did North Carolina, I believe.

• 1:40:38Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:40:39Jason Calacanis?

  We're at 95% reporting and Trump has a, a lead that looks like he's going to.

• 1:40:44Speaker 05

  Yeah, and unless there's a lot of Charlotte out, I think that North Carolina is over. And that, by the way, that percentage is outside the recount window. I think you have to be within 1%.

• 1:40:54Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, let's take a look at Georgia for a quick second. We said that was.

• 1:40:57David Friedberg?

  Do we, Michael, do you know if we've counted North Carolina's mail in?

• 1:41:02Speaker 05

  I think that I think they were all dumped at the outset.

• 1:41:04David Friedberg?

  Right.

• 1:41:05Speaker 05

  In North Carolina, one of the reasons why we were watching them tonight is that like Florida, they can count in advance. And so they dumped.

• 1:41:12David Friedberg?

  Done.

• 1:41:13Speaker 05

  They dumped a bunch right at the outset here.

• 1:41:15Phil Hellmuth?

  By the way, I just got a, by the way, I just checked the betting lines. Trump is over three to one favorite to win the election right now. The later, the later it goes, the more significant that is.

• 1:41:25David Sacks?

  Wait, why did it come down to 200 on Bovado? That's the lowest it's been.

• 1:41:29Speaker 05

  That's interesting.

• 1:41:30Phil Hellmuth?

  I just got three to one on one of the sites.

• 1:41:33Speaker 05

  This has two to one.

• 1:41:34David Friedberg?

  Yeah.

• 1:41:35David Sacks?

  That's the lowest.

• 1:41:36David Friedberg?

  Brad, you better start arming these sites.

• 1:41:38Chamath Palihapitiya?

  If you assume that Biden takes Arizona, Trump takes North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia.

• 1:41:46Jason Calacanis?

  Let's go to Georgia.

• 1:41:47Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Let's give him Pennsylvania.

• 1:41:49Speaker 05

  If Biden wins Arizona, uh, if Biden wins Arizona, he could lose Michigan.

• 1:41:55Jason Calacanis?

  So Georgia is currently 54%.

• 1:41:58David Friedberg?

  Fox just declared that Biden won Arizona.

• 1:42:01Speaker 05

  Oh, well, okay, that's a quick call. Uh.

• 1:42:04Brad Gerstner?

  Biden has to take Pennsylvania though.

• 1:42:07Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Okay, so now this is what I'm saying. This is why this is in place. So if you assume Biden takes Arizona, so that's now on the table. Now, if you say that Trump takes North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Florida, Texas, Ohio, et cetera, he still needs to pull out a victory in Michigan, Wisconsin, or Minnesota. Otherwise, get this.

• 1:42:27Speaker 05

  Or Nevada. Well, actually Nevada wouldn't be enough. Nevada wouldn't be enough.

• 1:42:30Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Yeah. Otherwise.

• 1:42:31Jason Calacanis?

  Let's go to Minnesota.

• 1:42:33Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Guys, hold on, guys, hold on, just let me finish, please. It's going to be if Trump, so if that happens, Trump needs to win one of Michigan, Wisconsin, or Minnesota. Otherwise, it's 270, 268 Biden.

• 1:42:44Jason Calacanis?

  Wow. Okay, so here's Minnesota. Let's just pause for a second. Biden with a, Biden's got a 56% to 42 with 54% in. So there's a lot more to come in, but I think, Michael, you would agree that's a bridge too far.

• 1:43:01Speaker 05

  I I never thought Minnesota was in play. The Republicans, the Republicans put a brave face on there. And they are making some gains in the rural areas, but Minnesota was never in play.

• 1:43:10Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, time to go to Wisconsin. Time to go to Wisconsin. Let's take a, let's pause here. We gotta do the step by step, everybody. Wisconsin, fifty-one percent to forty-seven percent. Donald Trump with fifty-four percent. That too, I think feels like a bridge too far, or do we not know if they did?

• 1:43:25Speaker 05

  We don't, oh, you know, I think Wisconsin is another one who's probably counted their election day vote first, so.

• 1:43:32Jason Calacanis?

  No.

• 1:43:32Speaker 05

  So Biden is still very much alive in Wisconsin.

• 1:43:35Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Yeah, exactly. Milwaukee doesn't come in until tomorrow morning.

• 1:43:38Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:43:39Jason Calacanis?

  Michigan, we need to take a quick look at Michigan and then we're almost done.

• 1:43:44Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, here's Michigan, Donald Trump at, uh, trending to fifty-five percent to forty-four percent for Biden. Only forty-four percent are in. And let's be clear, is this?

• 1:43:55Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Detroit doesn't come in until tomorrow.

• 1:43:58Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, is that Michigan, Detroit doesn't?

• 1:44:00Speaker 05

  Yeah, that Wayne, that Wayne County vote is very low. Yeah, look at that, twenty-eight percent. Lot of more, lot more votes there.

• 1:44:08Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, so we don't know about Michigan.

• 1:44:10Speaker 05

  Michigan is very much up in the air. That's a, that's a pretty good margin for Trump there, but I would say it's very much up in the air. But by the way, if you put Arizona in Biden's column, he can lose Michigan.

• 1:44:20Jason Calacanis?

  Let's take a look at Pennsylvania one more time.

• 1:44:22Speaker 05

  Actually, and Tremath is right, he could lose, he could lose either Michigan or Pennsylvania and still.

• 1:44:26Chamath Palihapitiya?

  He, Trump needs to win Michigan, Wisconsin, one of Michigan, Wisconsin or Minnesota. So basically.

• 1:44:33Speaker 05

  Forget Minnesota.

• 1:44:34Chamath Palihapitiya?

  If Detroit, so then if Detroit doesn't show up and Milwaukee and Green Bay don't show up, Trump wins.

• 1:44:41Jason Calacanis?

  Pennsylvania.

• 1:44:42Brad Gerstner?

  But Tremath, does that assume that he wins Pennsylvania?

• 1:44:46Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Yes, if I give you, if we give him Pennsylvania. So again, this is why I think, guys. Um, it feels like Biden.

• 1:44:56Speaker 05

  As I said. I'm a little shaky on my prediction right now, actually.

• 1:44:59David Friedberg?

  Yeah, I think the, the betting markets are showing, uh, it's tightened almost to even. And let me ask Brad a question. Brad, if the betting markets are saying it's almost even and the analysis we just did isn't missing any information.

• 1:45:11Brad Gerstner?

  Yeah.

• 1:45:11David Friedberg?

  Why are the, um, futures markets still trading up one and a half points and, and why are things still?

• 1:45:16Brad Gerstner?

  You know, I, I, I think that, listen. The, the, the stock markets ripped the last two days, assuming that Biden's gonna win. And I think what the markets are starting to, uh, price in is that this is not going to be a blue wave. There's no mandate here for massive tax reform. There's going to be a divided Senate. It's going to be hard to pass legislation that's going to be overly onerous. That the stimulus package is going to be smaller, not larger, which is why the, the rates are backing up. So I think from a, I think from a public markets perspective,

• 1:45:55Brad Gerstner?

  the idea that we're going to have some checks and balances in place, it can live with either the, the devil we know. Uh, or it can live with Biden, but it doesn't want Biden with Elizabeth Warren as Treasury Secretary.

• 1:46:09David Friedberg?

  So democracy survives.

• 1:46:11Speaker 05

  I, I think scenario three is starting to look very possible, Biden and a Republican Senate. And, uh, I can sleep soundly with that.

• 1:46:19Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Okay, so we're gonna have.

• 1:46:21Phil Hellmuth?

  I mean, you guys, I don't know what odds you're looking at, but, uh, but I mean, 1.9 is, I mean, that's like, that's a huge significant right there.

• 1:46:28Speaker 05

  It's, it's, it's still good. I give you that, but, uh, I, I don't know those, those numbers.

• 1:46:34Chamath Palihapitiya?

  It's moving, Phil. It's moving fast. I, um, I wanna, I wanna take.

• 1:46:39Speaker 05

  It's down to 180, yeah.

• 1:46:40Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I want to go back to this topic, um, that, that we brought up. Um, okay, guys, look, we'll, we'll have a winner and it's going to be closage. Um, but think of how many people, um, like, isn't there any empathy for all these people that are, that just feel so completely shut out of the system? Like, what do we do tomorrow? Like irrespective actually of whether Trump wins or Biden wins, I think Brad's right. We're going to basically get, you know, nothing much is going to happen at that level. But what do we do at the, like on Main Street? Like, what are we doing to close the gap between folks so that, you know, this entire cohort, like literally, I, I don't care whether Biden wins by the popular vote by 5 million or 7 million.

• 1:47:24Chamath Palihapitiya?

  You're talking about tens of millions of people.

• 1:47:28Jason Calacanis?

  Bill Gurley is now on the line. Another one of our besty guesties. Bill, thanks for joining us. You heard the question being teed up here. This is neck and neck. This is not something anybody, at least pollsters, came anywhere close to predicting. And Chamath's question, I think, is a really valid one. Who has got a greater chance of bringing the country back together and maybe leading from the middle and maybe healing this wound? Because this has been the worst four years, I believe, in any of our lifetimes in terms of the anxiety and the anger between people who used to be able to

• 1:48:04Phil Hellmuth?

  What a loaded question.

• 1:48:05Jason Calacanis?

  Well, I want to know Bill's opinion because

• 1:48:09Phil Hellmuth?

  By the way, Bill Gurley is the best VC. Jason, Bill Gurley is the best venture capitalist in the world.

• 1:48:16Jason Calacanis?

  Phil, Phil, Phil, stop hijacking our fucking broadcast. Go ahead, Gurley.

• 1:48:20Bill Gurley?

  So thanks for having me on. You know, I think you guys have done a really good job of breaking down why people have underestimated this thing. There was a, you know, there's such a rural-urban split. There was a really good New York Times Daily podcast about two weeks ago where they interviewed rural Democrats in Pennsylvania that had switched to Trump. And, and all the voices they echoed were very similar to what Brad walked through with his mother. And so I do think there's a, a true lack of empathy for the, the center states and the rural areas from the coastal elites. And I'd say part of breaking any

• 1:49:00Bill Gurley?

  of it down would be somehow trying to separate that. I think a bigger issue that has really been on my mind lately is just how tribal everyone's gotten. And I, I've, I've come to believe that the, the way you can probably just ruin your mind the most is to just join a tribe and quit thinking about things. And the number of people I know on both sides that have run off to their tribe is shocking to me. And, and it's just not a way to go about being smart. Because, you know, and, and if you, anyone that makes fun of a, you know, A religion that's extreme or something. It's all the same shit. Like you're just believing

• 1:49:42Bill Gurley?

  dogma for the sake of it. So I, one of the things that I worry about, about a Trump victory is, is just very tactically in my life, and maybe it's part of living in California, but a whole bunch of people and things that I want to get solved, become more manic if he wins. Like my kid's school and the companies that I work with and, and COVID, quite frankly, I, I think that we can't get past COVID with Trump because the TDSers are so convinced that it has to be problematic. And it's just, you know, so I don't, I actually, I don't know the exact path to solve it, but I, I do worry about just being in a world where everyone hates each other. And it just doesn't seem solvable that way.

• 1:50:27David Sacks?

  Well, th- this is why I think, you know, uh, this, this scenario, which, uh, I've, I've, we've called the soft landing where, let's say you had a Biden victory by two electoral votes, the Republicans hold on to the Senate. Um, I think the radical left gets a big, um, I'd say rebuke, um, or a shock. And we have basically divided government in Washington, but it takes the whole temperature down because, you know, Trump gets replaced by Biden, but you've kind of got, you know, basically Joe and his old pal Mitch are in a power sharing arrangement in Washington. It could be a really good situation for the country for the next four years. You know, temperature would go down, there'd be kind of this, you know, healing process, if you will. Um, but, you know, there wouldn't be a whole lot of

• 1:51:11David Sacks?

  new sort of legislation that we have to worry about. I think we would get what we want, which is the ability to ignore Washington for four years.

• 1:51:19Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Yeah, but we wouldn't get a solution to really what ails us, which is the fact that there's all these people that just feel completely shut out. And I, I, that really bothers me at some very basic level, which is like, I just think like, you know, I, I fought my family, my parents, just escaped some third world fucking shithole to go to Canada. And, you know, Canada gave us a lot, but it still wasn't enough for me. I crawled and scratched to get into the United States. Things work out, but I don't feel like I have a right to all of a sudden, um,

• 1:51:55Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I don't know, just like look down on other people or make people feel like shit or not allow Do you actually think, Chamath, that Biden is gonna do that? Or do you think Biden's gonna be the middle ground? No. Who collaborates with the Republicans in the Senate and the Congress? No, no, what I'm saying is, independent of what happens, we're gonna have, basically, we're gonna have a photo finish. And what I think what Brad said is right. The fact that we are in a photo finish means that there are a lot of people in pain. And I think we have a responsibility to get our heads out of our asses and stop this sanctimonious holier-than-thou bullshit. I agree with Brad when he says that, it really hits a nerve with me.

• 1:52:39Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Because I feel like there are a lot of people, we work with them all, it's rife within the tech culture, and all these fuckbags think they know what they're talking about all the time. And we're doing a disservice to so many Americans. And we need to wake up, and that's what bothers me. The idea that there are so many people who feel like they're just getting so fucked

• 1:53:01Chamath Palihapitiya?

  really bothers me, that bothers me. So I can ignore Trump, I'll ignore his bullshit, because honestly, he's done nothing. He will do nothing. He is a complete fucking void. But whether it's Trump or Biden in a 270, 268 election, the fact that so many people still use this guy as a vessel, I don't know, that makes, that makes me more upset.

• 1:53:25David Friedberg?

  I think some people, I think everyone thinks, has some degree of empathy to the problem. I think there are different points of view on the solution, which is where this stuff gets realized. The one point of view is, we should have less government involved in our lives and our businesses, and the other point of view is, we should have more support and help from the government. And that's where things diverge very quickly. It doesn't feel to me like anyone in politics is necessarily ignoring what you're highlighting. And I don't think anyone in America does, from the rich to the poor, to the left to the right.

• 1:53:57Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I think the solutions are miscast, because, for example, like, what are we supposed to do, like with our higher educational institutions? The people that are churning out, all these folks that are meant to go and collaborate and find middle ground. I mean, I clearly like all of this says our educational facilities are completely failing from grade school all the way through to high school, um, community college, college, grad school. It's all just a contrived piece of shit. Right? We are completely putting out one in two people for failure. Okay, so that much is clear. So I don't see politicians fixing that on either side of the aisle. What I mean, honestly, what are we supposed to do?

• 1:54:39Brad Gerstner?

  Well, I mean, might I just, might I just suggest that, um, two things. Um, number one, I think in these results that you see, there's a, you know, there, there is extraordinary frustration, right? With this, with the state of affairs, the fact that Trump, in the middle of COVID, after four years of torturous anxiety inducing tweets, could even be in a neck to neck race to win this election tells you, right? How devastatingly bad people feel about how they're, how they're being treated. I think that, you know, I said recently, I mean, we have to redraft the social contract. This idea, we've been living under a social

• 1:55:24Brad Gerstner?

  contract drafted post-World War II, um, that, you know, it's pre-technology revolution. We have a concentration of wealth today in, in the world and in this country like we've never seen. And we have, uh, Republicans that are set in their ways who say, you know, no, no, no universal healthcare, you know, no reform of the education system. You have Democrats who are demanding that you have universal basic income. I think you have to have, um, pragmatic, smart, younger politicians. I mean, the fact that we have two old white men.

• 1:56:02Brad Gerstner?

  I mean, neither of these folks is on top of their game. I mean, neither of these, like this is, I mean, you compare Biden to Pete Buttigieg. I mean, Buttigieg is, Buttigieg walks into the lion's den of Fox TV and tames the lion every night. Every night, right? Let's get Pete Buttigieg solving some of these problems. Let's get some younger ideas on the Republican side solving these problems, but we're going to have to re-architect that social contract, no doubt about it. You know, and I, I think the second thing is that, you know, to me, this is going to be a wake up call

• 1:56:46Brad Gerstner?

  to the nominating processes in both parties, but, but let's be clear. Mike Pence, right, has his roadmap, um, you know, for, you know, how to win the election. Indiana governor, right, who's going to tap into the same fears that Trump tapped into. I mean, these fears aren't going away. Right? The exacerbation of the wealth disparity is going to increase, not decrease. We see it every day out here. And so I think you're going to have to have, you know, the Democratic Party who nominates people, puts people, you know, forward, who can, you know, who can tap into this.

• 1:57:24David Friedberg?

  Brad, who do you like? If it wasn't Biden, who would you like?

• 1:57:27Brad Gerstner?

  Buttigieg. Buttigieg, he's a South, this was, you know, an openly gay mayor of my hometown in Indiana.

• 1:57:39David Friedberg?

  You think he can sell?

• 1:57:40Brad Gerstner?

  Right? Who fought, who fought in Afghanistan? And who goes on Fox News every damn night, right? And has a conversation that leaves Republicans saying, oh, that guy's pretty smart. Right?

• 1:57:54David Sacks?

  Yeah, I agree that he's a tremendous political talent.

• 1:57:57Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Do you think that he's pragmatic enough, Brad? Or he would, he would end up veering more towards a, you know, sort of like politically correct leftist socialist agenda and then have the same result?

• 1:58:11Brad Gerstner?

  I think that there is a, there's been a doctrine in the Democratic Party that to win the primary, you gotta veer to the left, right? You gotta contend with Bernie, you gotta contend with Elizabeth Warren, but ultimately that's a losing strategy in the election. And so I think you're going to have the emergence of a middle of the country governor, middle of the country mayor, somebody like Pete, who's gonna run, you know, on a smart, younger, pragmatic Democratic ticket. I think that's a winning formula. I mean, I think that's the Clinton formula. You know, Obama was a bit of an anomaly, but the Clinton formula was a conservative pragmatic

• 1:58:54Brad Gerstner?

  form of Democratic Party leadership.

• 1:58:57Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I mean, I suspect that in the next three or four days, I'm gonna get a call from the Democratic leadership figuring out how much they can count on me. And my message to them is, you guys can go fuck yourselves until you figure this out. Because to your point, Brad, it is absolutely shameful that we're in, no, no, I'm serious, that we are in.

• 1:59:15Brad Gerstner?

  I know you are. That's what I love.

• 1:59:17David Sacks?

  Well, but Chamath, I mean, what you should tell them to do is go form a DLC. Remember the Democrat Leadership Committee that Bill Clinton formed? So remember what Bill Clinton did, you know, when he won in 92, we had three straight Republican presidential terms, Ronald Reagan, incredibly successful president, then his successor, basically Reagan won a, Bush won a third term for Reagan, but he was a weak candidate. And Clinton came in there, what did he do? He triangulated. He tacked toward the center. And, you know, he actually passed a lot of bipartisan legislation.

• 1:59:50Chamath Palihapitiya?

  David, David, David, let me make this even more blunt, okay? My million bucks will grow to $10 million per election to $50 million per election as I get older. Okay? So if these motherfuckers want a single goddamn dollar from me, what I want first is a root cause analysis to understand what is actually going on. So to your point, before you fix it, you need to be honest and identify the problem.

• 2:00:14David Sacks?

  Well, I mean, I think that I think it's because that the issue that Trump ran against was that Joe Biden was a Trojan horse for radical, for a radical left that really owns the Democratic Party right now. That's what he ran against.

• 2:00:31Jason Calacanis?

  Bill Gurley, what do you think the issues are that if we were going to try to have a great reconciliation between these two parties, between middle America and the coastal elites, where you have spent, you know, large swaths of your life, I think perhaps you're the only person here who has lived in both places, middle of America.

• 2:00:49Bill Gurley?

  Brad, you said he's from Indiana.

• 2:00:51Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, but I trust your judgment on these issues. What does the, what does the, what do the coasts need to understand about the people who believe, who win, who live between the coasts and what they're trying to express to us? And how can we, as coastal occupants and citizens do to kind of bridge this gap, other than just moving to Austin and getting the hell out of California, which is devolving, which is what I feel like doing at this point?

• 2:01:19Bill Gurley?

  Well, two, I have two comments on this. One, you know, having, having listened to, you know, as much as I can on, on all the, all the voter conversations, including this call, um, I'm not a hundred percent sure that, that these people feel unrepresented. I think a lot of them want to be left alone. And so part, part of what's being engineered, or what they fear is being engineered, is someone sitting in a city with views that are very different than them, telling them that this is the world they have to live by. And I think the lockdown fit in with that, but a lot of other things, too. That, the, the daily podcast I mentioned, you know, there was this guy just saying, what does,

• 2:02:01Bill Gurley?

  what does Nancy Pelosi know about what I want in my day to day life? You know, and so there, there is a notion of being left alone. Brad's story about his mom was like, hey, we're fine here. Like, don't, don't bother me. And so there's a, there's a difference between trying to solve a problem for them and being empathetic to their point of view. And, and I would say, um, having spent a lot of time in these areas and being a slow talker and sometimes, uh, made fun of for that, there is a, there's unquestionably a, a, a type of social bias against rural Americans in, in urban cities. There's just no doubt. It's, it's the only joke you're allowed to tell without getting.

• 2:02:43Jason Calacanis?

  Rebuke. In other words, we can make fun of the red knacks and we can. Oh, absolutely. All day long. All day long. We can do a Bill Gurley impersonation.

• 2:02:57Jason Calacanis?

  I mean, if we, and this is the thing that I don't understand, when I grew up, and I'm curious other people's opinions here, and I'll let anybody who wants to jump in on this. It feels like the lessons I was taught in the seventies and eighties, which were, America is strong because we're a melting pot. We take the best of all the cultures and we try to make our own out of it. And that you get to make choices for your life and in your city, town, and state, that don't have to be the same as the ones we make in New York. So if you want to have a handgun and you want to put it on your waistband in Texas or wherever, and in New York City, we don't want to have handguns in the city because it's a little bit more crowded. We can, we can have that difference and we can coexist.

• 2:03:42Jason Calacanis?

  And I don't know when we lost this script, that what makes America great is the differences. And that people living in different parts of a very large, diverse country can have different opinions about, you know, abortion and what month abortion is allowed to occur at, or the owning of a gun. Or, you know, how tall a building can be built. When did that get taken off the table and who took it off the table? You know, who took it off the table was these hysterical libs. And I think the hysterical, as much as this far-right Trump, you know, you know, flags on pickup trucks surrounding other cars is absolutely horrible to watch.

• 2:04:26Jason Calacanis?

  I have equal disdain for hysterical libs trying to tell somebody who lives on a ranch that they can't have a gun when they've never even been to a goddamn ranch and they've never had to use a gun to protect their family. Because a cop coming to your ranch is going to take 45 minutes. And that's what America needs to get back to is respecting each other's different lifestyles, whether you're an atheist or you're devoutly Catholic. Vive la différence. Let people live their goddamn lives. I think it's an astute point, Bill.

• 2:04:59David Friedberg?

  Jay Cal, can we run down California next?

• 2:05:01Bill Gurley?

  Yeah.

• 2:05:02David Friedberg?

  I'm very curious how Prop 22 is doing. Prop 22 is ahead, Bill Gurley.

• 2:05:08Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, praise Jesus, the goddamn people are allowed.

• 2:05:12David Friedberg?

  Bill, can you tell everyone what Prop 22 is and why?

• 2:05:15Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, please.

• 2:05:16David Friedberg?

  Why, why it got put on?

• 2:05:17Bill Gurley?

  Yeah, but and, and, and it would transition to a whole bunch of conversations about politics that I feel more passionate about than who gets elected, which is if, you know, in order to solve the problems that everyone's upset about with inequality and whatnot, I think you have to have massive innovation and you have to have job growth. And I don't know of any waves in history where you get a whole bunch of improvement in, in standard of living for a broad swath of a population without being positively aligned with job growth. And what, where I'm going with this is my, my biggest concern about Washington,

• 2:05:58Bill Gurley?

  I used to say the main reasons Silicon Valley works is because it's so fucking far away from DC. Um, and it's because regulation is the friend of the incumbent and it's the, it's the opposite of innovation. It locks in things and it's very resistant to change. And, um, Matt Ridley's new book, How Innovation Works, goes through this over a very, very long period of time. It's, it's fantastic. And he talks about why Europe's gotten stuck and like the top 50 market cap companies in Europe, there's no new entrant in 30 years or something like that, um, because of this. Anyway, Prop 22 is a California proposition reaction to a law that was put on the California books called AB5.

• 2:06:45Bill Gurley?

  To the best of my knowledge, and this is consistent with the editorial groups at the LA Times, the San Francisco Chronicle, and the San Diego Tribune, is that it was written entirely by a union, the SEIU, who has no representation over drivers or gig workers whatsoever. They represent service industry workers, and they would like to represent Uber drivers, but they don't today. And I think about this like a bunch of people living in Nevada trying to pass a law for the citizens of California. Unfortunately, because of regulatory capture, which I think is unfortunate on both sides of the aisle, the union's able, through a woman named Lorraine Gonzalez, is able to get the state to pass a law

• 2:07:29Bill Gurley?

  that basically targeted gig workers, which was this new job type that has all these fantastic benefits. Anyway, immediately thereafter, there were several industries who were like, "Oh, we don't want this for us." So them and their unions and constituents started calling on Sacramento with Lorraine Gonzalez and carving them out, one by one. So by the time AB5 was set to be put in action, there were over 100 industries that had been carved out, because it was a stupid law written just to target a single industry, and it was written with political donor dollars.

• 2:08:08Bill Gurley?

  Now, in a moment that I would say is completely outside of my realm of what I expected, all of the newspaper, all the editorial boards for all of the major newspapers in California came to the conclusion that this was a bad law, that this was crony capitalism, written with donor dollars, and they all got behind Prop 22, which is because we have this valid initiative in California as a way for the voters to tell Sacramento that they're full of shit. And that looks like what's happening right now. Sorry for the long answer.

• 2:08:43Jason Calacanis?

  No, no, it's a great answer, and what's particularly infuriating about this, and listen, you and I are both, you know, investors in companies impacted by this, is that it's, there's a group of people who've been exempted from this, and the list of people exempted all seem to be just slightly more powerful and slightly better-paid salespeople.

• 2:09:13Jason Calacanis?

  Fishermen, psychologists, surgeons, dentists, engineers, architects, lawyers, etc. And if this had passed, or if it still does pass, because we're only at 15% or 20% of people have been counted so far, but it's looking like Prop 22 will pass. Well, in one of the businesses I run, Inside.com, we had to tell all of the freelancers we were hiring, who are writers, that they would lose their gig work with us, because they could only write five stories a year, or 10 stories a year. And Vox, one of the big publishing companies, which is incredibly left-leaning, as left

• 2:09:55Jason Calacanis?

  as it gets, they stopped hiring people in California, and they fired and laid off all their California freelance writers.

• 2:10:04Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Nick.

• 2:10:05Jason Calacanis?

  And what this does to people who are doing gig economy, 70% of them are working part-time.

• 2:10:12Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Nick, can you go back to, can you, I need to switch topics. Nick, can you go to Georgia, please, for a second? A little, little late-breaking data. Over 400,000 votes outstanding in Atlanta in the suburbs. How close is Georgia?

• 2:10:28Speaker 05

  Let's see, how?

• 2:10:29Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Oh, my God! It's a statistical dead heat if you add back in 400,000 for all Biden. Now, I'm just saying, that's not where it's going to be, but...

• 2:10:38Speaker 05

  They won't all be for Biden, yeah.

• 2:10:41Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I mean, Atlanta, Atlanta should go 70% Biden.

• 2:10:44Speaker 05

  Oh, sure, it will, yeah, maybe 75, 80, but I guess he'd have to be 100 to 0 to catch up, if I'm reading that right.

• 2:10:53Bill Gurley?

  Anyone cynical enough to think that there's some operative in these states holding these on purpose so that they can be the center of importance tomorrow?

• 2:11:04Speaker 05

  No, I just think it's, it's almost midnight on the East Coast, and people are tired, and they're gonna go home and have a shit shower and a shave and start again tomorrow.

• 2:11:13David Friedberg?

  The reason Gurley is so successful, Gurley always knows how to diagnose the individual motivation behind every system on a macro level. And he can diagnose the shit out of it by just thinking about what one guy's motive is, and then he's figured the whole thing out, and he makes a billion dollars.

• 2:11:29Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Master of self-interest, Bill Gurley.

• 2:11:31David Friedberg?

  True.

• 2:11:34David Sacks?

  Here's what it comes down to. So Trump needs to win two out of four of these states Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan. And he's got to win two of those four. So it's got to be probably Pennsylvania and Michigan or Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But he's got to win. If he loses Nevada, he needs to win two out of those three Rust Belt states. Or he wins Nevada plus like a Pennsylvania.

• 2:12:01Brad Gerstner?

  Yeah.

• 2:12:01David Sacks?

  This is gonna be, this is gonna be really.

• 2:12:03Brad Gerstner?

  Michigan's gonna go to Trump. This is gonna come down to Pennsylvania. And really to the, to, to the Philly suburbs.

• 2:12:12Speaker 05

  I was reading on Twitter, election official in Michigan says, don't expect results before Friday.

• 2:12:19David Sacks?

  God, that's crazy. Well, and by the way, I mean, so, so, so, but let's just think for a second, how extraordinary it is that Trump looks like he might win Michigan. I mean, just to go back to the, you know, the, the theory of the, of the case that we were laying out earlier, about how China, about how Trump picked up this, this China trade issue four years ago. And, and, and this, this time he combined it with the lockdown issue. I mean, it's really amazing that that state is leaning Trump right now.

• 2:12:51Brad Gerstner?

  Michigan, Michigan was two issues. It was, you know, working class Democrats feeling like Trump's standing up for them with respect to China, and it was lockdown. And lockdown was, was an overwhelming issue, you know, for my, for my friends and my folks in Michigan, for sure. Can we go back to Prop 22 for a second, Jason? Because I think that this is, you know, this is a, an issue of extreme importance. You know, one of the things that Bill didn't say is, you know, we're talking earlier, Chamath brought up, you know, what's the third way? You know, we, we.

• 2:13:35Brad Gerstner?

  We've, we've built a social contract on the back of kind of W two tied employment for the better part of the last 70 years. We now have a massive part of the economy that's gig and it's not just, this is all freelancers. This is all part-time workers and post-COVID, this is just a massive portion of the economy. The idea that we're going to tie all benefits to W two is just totally asinine. It's got to be re-architected. And what Prop 22 does is, say, it's IC plus. It's independent contractor plus benefits. Right? It's this idea that we

• 2:14:14Brad Gerstner?

  don't have to tie benefits to W two employment. Right? So the nonsensical no argument against Prop 22, that this was an abandonment of the employee is just that. It combines flexibility with benefits. And, you know, from my perspective, you're going to see if Prop 22 passes, which I think it will tonight, it's going to be the architecture that New York and many other states follow. They're certainly not going to follow the disastrous AB5 example. But we also know that it's not sufficient just to have a bunch of workers with, with zero healthcare and, you

• 2:14:57Brad Gerstner?

  know, and so I think that this is a, you know, hats off to DoorDash, Instacart, you know, Uber and Lyft, trying to, trying to design something that is a middle way. And, you know, Chamath, if we don't have politicians designing a middle way, right, then we need leadership out of the business community designing a middle way.

• 2:15:18Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Well, that, so you just said something so, so profound, and I was gonna, I would like to build on that. I think what California shows is that if you have a completely democratic up and down ticket and it veers too far to this coastal naval gazing socialist nanny state, then it requires money and companies to basically level the playing field because the Republicans can't do it. And it's possible to fight back. And what's interesting to me is nobody ever talks about, or maybe they do, and I just don't hear it, about how the equivalent happens on the

• 2:16:00Chamath Palihapitiya?

  It'd be interesting to know if you guys know of any states where there's just Republican up and down the ticket and they just veer into such a detached laissez faire where the whole state needs to get corrected by for-profit organizations. But it seems like we're setting up for Democrats versus companies and people moving to Republican states to have low taxes and to be left alone.

• 2:16:26David Friedberg?

  Well, you know, it's a sensible set of outcomes in California, right? I mean, do you guys not agree that the yes on Prop 22 and Sacks, it looks like your commercial property tax proposition that Zuck helped fund may not pass. It's a Oh, thank God. It's a, well, we don't know. It's a 0.1% differential.

• 2:16:46David Sacks?

  Yes. No, I agree. It's, look, the California ballot initiatives are looking really good right now. It gives me a lot of hope. It gives me a lot of hope about the state because the most anti-economic, the most, let's put it business unfriendly ballot initiatives, looks like they're going down. Starting, you know, with the win on Prop 22, that's huge. But then Prop 15, you know, we talked about that on a former episode of the All In Pod. This was chipping away at Prop 13, which is the great shield of the middle class in terms of property taxes. I'm not saying you couldn't get a better tax regime that would tax commercial property at fair market value, but you sure wouldn't want to give that card away without demanding some structural reform in exchange for it, which is

• 2:17:29David Sacks?

  why I thought it was just so stupid for, you know, tech billionaires to be funding, you know, these ballot initiatives for higher taxes, you know?

• 2:17:38David Friedberg?

  But this is definitely looking like a sensible kind of middle ground outcome where a lot of folks who were concerned about California swinging all the way left and chasing business and enterprise out of the state, you know, maybe kind of getting reeled in. And I think it gives some hope and gives some pause to a lot of folks who are trying to build businesses in California to recognize that, you know, hey, there is a thoughtful populace here.

• 2:18:02David Sacks?

  Totally agree.

• 2:18:03David Friedberg?

  And this is, this is a great outcome tonight. I feel, I personally feel really good about

• 2:18:07David Sacks?

  I agree. If this sticks, it's

• 2:18:11David Sacks?

  It is because the big, the big issue with California right now is that we've got, you know, people, we've got net migration out of the state because it's just so hard for, for the middle class to live here and to build businesses here.

• 2:18:25Brad Gerstner?

  I hope what we hear, you know, if, if we're fortunate enough for Prop 22 to pass, I hear we, I hope we see a coalition among these companies come together and really promote this as a national architecture. For a third way for independent contractors, free agents across the country to have a living wage and benefits. It's totally detached from W2 employment. I really do believe a bunch of people on this call were helpful to an effort I launched around the board challenge. You know, it's high time for the social consciousness of corporate America to take the leadership position. And because it's not coming out of Washington.

• 2:19:11Brad Gerstner?

  And there's so many issues that the solution lies among us. And we got to stop spending our election nights wondering when somebody's going to deliver us from ourselves. We got to start delivering ourselves.

• 2:19:22Jason Calacanis?

  I think it's a very

• 2:19:23David Friedberg?

  How do you think you resolve things with unions? I mean, like, you know, Gurley, Gurley, are you still with us?

• 2:19:29Bill Gurley?

  Yes.

• 2:19:31David Friedberg?

  How do you resolve things with the unions after this? I mean, if Prop 22 passes, is there a, a coming to the middle ground with unions and are unions always just a kind of directional vector? You know, they're, they're always like a force on the system. They're not an absolute or objective, right? They're, uh, they're just always pushing in one direction. I mean, what ends up happening? With the resolution with unions or is it just a constant back and forth to try and manage? The impact they'll have on policy, politics, tax, um, free market, et cetera.

• 2:20:02Bill Gurley?

  So from, from, from my point of view, the, if you, if you think about Citizens United, which a lot of people were upset about, I think rightfully so, uh, because DC is so money oriented, like, uh, it's coin operated. And a lot of people have vivid awareness of it being cor- cor- coin operated on the right through corporations. This is why the most heavily regulated industries are the hardest to break into, hardest to innovate against. What, what I think they miss is how much of it's reg- is, is, is regulatory capture on the left. Uh, and the difference that a union has versus a company is it's a natural monopoly. And so it actually has more power to write regulation than a company

• 2:20:46Bill Gurley?

  does. Um, but, and it's going to be around every single election cycle. So if you listen to them, you know, you, you get what you want. And the, you know, people have pointed out that the, um, the gentleman, or he's not a gentleman, the, the individual that, that, that killed George Floyd probably wouldn't have been on the force if it weren't for the union protecting him, um, because of the stuff he had done before. But, and this goes back to the red and blue and blindness of just being dogmatic to your party. Most of the people I know that are heavily, um, uh, prescribed to the, to the democratic tribe, refuse to acknowledge that the, one of the big problems in police reform comes from the unions. And, and you can't see those things unless you

• 2:21:31Bill Gurley?

  take yourself out of that single place. Um, I would tell you the California situation, I think, is deeper than, than maybe what Brad talked about. There, the, the rule, the law that's causing more companies to leave, from my perspective, than AB5 is something called PAGA, which was passed about 25 years ago, but has finally reached momentum where it's causing problems for companies. And this was a law passed by, um, litigators with donor dollars in Sacramento that lets any lawyer bring a case on behalf of the state against a company. And so they they're basically like local sheriffs just running around bringing claims.

• 2:22:13Bill Gurley?

  And of course they'll settle every time the the the supposed victims are getting about 10% on average on PAGA claims. And once your company's been shook down on three or four PAGA claims by a lawyer who's only going to give 10 cents on the dollar to these people that used to work for you, you finally just throw up your hands and say, you know, I don't need to hire someone here. I'll hire someone somewhere else. Costs twice as much to hire someone here. And so I I do worry that if any state or country wants to move forward in in our new economy, they can't just be completely anti-business, anti-tech.

• 2:22:55Bill Gurley?

  I have a strong point of view on that, but like it it it won't work. You're going to grind to a halt.

• 2:23:00Brad Gerstner?

  Hey, Jay, Jason, can we go back to the Senate? Is anybody prepared to? I I I'm getting a read from my analysts who are live blogging to me that the Senate is almost certain to go Republican at this point with Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina going Republican.

• 2:23:18David Friedberg?

  That would do it.

• 2:23:19Brad Gerstner?

  And Michigan and Montana, both in real danger for Democrats. But even if they lost both of those, um, you're going to have 5149 to Republicans in the Senate.

• 2:23:30David Friedberg?

  Hey, Brad, why are markets trading down a bit right now from where they were?

• 2:23:36Brad Gerstner?

  Um, I still have it at, uh, you know, NASDAQ 280. So I'm not I'm not prepared to call that down. I just think that's within bouncing around.

• 2:23:46Jason Calacanis?

  And Bovada, I guess, which is the, um,

• 2:23:51Jason Calacanis?

  Bovada just came back up. They stopped taking action. Now they've got Trump minus 150. Is that how you say it? And Joe Biden plus 115. So to, if you put $100 on Joe Biden, you win 15. Is that right? And if you

• 2:24:07Speaker 05

  No, you won one hundred and fifteen.

• 2:24:09Jason Calacanis?

  You win one hundred and fifteen. So you only win fifteen dollars.

• 2:24:13Phil Hellmuth?

  One fifteen is very close, Jason.

• 2:24:16Jason Calacanis?

  And Donald Trump, if you were to put a hundred dollars in, you make a hundred fifty. Is that right, Phil Hellmuth?

• 2:24:23Speaker 05

  You'd have to win one fifty.

• 2:24:25Jason Calacanis?

  A one fifty to win a hundred.

• 2:24:28Speaker 05

  Exactly.

• 2:24:29Jason Calacanis?

  Got it. Okay.

• 2:24:31Brad Gerstner?

  I think the more surprising thing at this point is it's almost, you know, and I'm certainly going to live to regret this, but it appears at this point that the market's going to be up tomorrow. Almost either way. And if you look at what the market was saying last week, uh, you know, just yet another surprise. Um, the market is celebrating the fact that this is a close election. Um, but you know, if it's a, uh, if it's a contested transfer of power and we have, you know, there's, there's certainly a lot of room for uncertainty, uncertainty to still be injected into this. But it likes the fact that we, whether it's Biden or Trump,

• 2:25:12Brad Gerstner?

  uh, who pulls out the presidency, it's certainly liking the fact that it's going to be a close election.

• 2:25:18Jason Calacanis?

  Right now, just to give people an indication, Fox News has Joe Biden at two hundred twenty seven electoral votes and Trump at two hundred four. The New York Times is at two thirteen and a hundred thirty six for Trump. The Senate on the New York Times is forty four Dems, forty five Republicans.

• 2:25:38Jason Calacanis?

  And I don't know how we're supposed to, who we're supposed to trust here.

• 2:25:44Speaker 05

  There's a

• 2:25:45Jason Calacanis?

  Senate, the Senate on Fox News is forty five Democrat, forty four Republican.

• 2:25:52Jason Calacanis?

  So this is a dead heat, which I think could lean us towards the great reconciliation. Which is if Trump comes out of office, Biden becomes the elder statesman, Biden reaches across the aisle. We have a massive balance of power in the Senate. Everybody's forced to work together in order to get anything done. Am I correct in my reading of this as a non-political expert?

• 2:26:16Speaker 05

  Well, what you're describing is the great gerontocracy. We'll have seventy eight year old Biden, negotiating seventy nine year old McConnell and Schumer is what seventy four, seventy five. Pelosi's over eighty. Sidney Hoyer, her deputy is over eighty.

• 2:26:31Jason Calacanis?

  So who do we have in the death pool because two or three of those are dying in the next four years. So I don't mean to make it dark, but.

• 2:26:38Speaker 05

  Uh, well, I mean, just looking at McConnell and his bruised hands and lips and everything. Uh, something's eating him alive. I'm not exactly sure what it is, but, uh, uh, that's a bad, bad scene. Yeah.

• 2:26:51Bill Gurley?

  Is that on the betting markets, Phil?

• 2:26:54Phil Hellmuth?

  That's not on the betting markets. And by the way, the other direction you're talking about Trump who's 74 negotiating. I mean, you know, it's, it's.

• 2:27:02Speaker 05

  Now, we've, we've got to get younger in our political leadership across the board. It's, it's ridiculous.

• 2:27:09Jason Calacanis?

  Who, who had a better chance of beating Trump? Would Bernie, Elizabeth Warren, or Buttigieg? Would one of those three, if you had to pick one of those three, and I think it's one of those three, or you could pick your other, which one would have performed better? Brad, you seem to have some thoughts.

• 2:27:26Bill Gurley?

  I'm with Brad on Mayor Pete for sure.

• 2:27:28Phil Hellmuth?

  I'm with Brad on that one. Yeah.

• 2:27:31Jason Calacanis?

  Okay. So Bill, you believe Mayor Pete would have had a better performance? He would have been more inspiring? He would have been more energy?

• 2:27:39Bill Gurley?

  I, I think that there is a lot of people that, that want what Brad talked about, which is someone who's, who's rational and calm and, and centered. And I also think that if you look at the history of, of presidential campaigns, um, most Americans favor an outsider. And I, I attribute that to personally to them feeling like Washington's on the hook and been bought. And, you know, Biden would be an outlier for a lifetime senator.

• 2:28:08Phil Hellmuth?

  I mean, there was a lot, there was a lot of excitement around Obama. There was a lot of excitement about Reagan who came, you know, from Hollywood. There was a lot of excitement about Clinton. So, you know.

• 2:28:17Bill Gurley?

  A lot of governors, a lot of, a lot of first time senators is what you tend to see. And so Pete fit that mold.

• 2:28:25Phil Hellmuth?

  Some youth and some charisma would be nice.

• 2:28:29Jason Calacanis?

  And David, the two Davids, and Michael, who do you think would have put up the best fight? Because tonight, if Biden does win, and it's feeling maybe like that's gonna happen, it's clearly a jump ball here. It's coming down to the last 30 seconds, last minute of the game. If Biden does lose, who would have been the candidate that would have beaten Trump if there was another one? Who would have had the next best chance, Davids?

• 2:28:59David Sacks?

  Well, Biden's still looking pretty good right now. So I don't know that there was somebody better. But I do agree that I always was most impressed with Buttigieg out of the candidates in the sense that I thought he was the most articulate, I thought he was the best debater, I thought he was the best on TV, and he knew how to reach for the center. And he had the kind of Obama thing of having identity politics working for him, but without making a big deal out of it. And so, yeah.

• 2:29:31Jason Calacanis?

  Unpack what you mean by that, Mr. Sax.

• 2:29:33David Sacks?

  Well, he's gay. He'd be the first gay president. But he's not making that an explicit part of the reason to vote for him. And but it would have been a first, and his voters would know that. But he doesn't want to, you know, he doesn't want to run on the idea of identity politics. And so.

• 2:29:48Jason Calacanis?

  So he's not leading with that?

• 2:29:49David Sacks?

  He's not leading with it. I think that's a smart way to play it. It's, you know, Obama was obviously taking an incredibly important first. But he didn't lead with that as the reason why you should vote for him. So.

• 2:30:01Jason Calacanis?

  And to a certain extent, Hillary did lead with that. Hillary was going to be the first.

• 2:30:05David Sacks?

  I'm with her, you know.

• 2:30:06Jason Calacanis?

  "I'm with her" was the slogan.

• 2:30:08David Sacks?

  Yeah. And I think a lot of people did want to make that first. But I think you have those votes, you need to make the case to everybody else. So, yeah, I think he's a great political athlete. And, you know, someone who's got probably a bright future in the Democrat Party.

• 2:30:25Phil Hellmuth?

  I'm seeing some people on Twitter say that Biden's now become the favorite. But I just checked Betfair. It's basically 1.1. It's very close now. Kind of crazy.

• 2:30:34David Sacks?

  This is going to come down to Pennsylvania and Michigan. And it's going to take days to do those counts, and we're probably going to end up in the courts.

• 2:30:45Jason Calacanis?

  Friedberg, who would have done a better job here?

• 2:30:48David Friedberg?

  Look, I mean, the market already voted, right? It voted for Biden. He is the leading candidate. I don't know if anyone else would have outperformed Biden at this point. I think, you know, the next in line was a very different ideology, and that's Bernie. And, you know, Bernie really is the contrast to, you know, the points that we were making earlier. You either think that the way forward is to have the government leave me alone, or to wrap me up in a blanket and give me a hot cocoa and rub my feet. And Bernie Sanders is the, you know, the guy in middle school who runs for class president and tells you the vending machines are all going to be free if you elect me. And that's a broadly, you know, like, everyone votes for that guy.

• 2:31:31Jason Calacanis?

  Brad, let me, uh, let me ask you a question, Brad, that I build off of David's.

• 2:31:36David Friedberg?

  I just, I just think the Mayor Pete thing, by the way, let me just say, I think Mayor Pete is a great, articulate, thoughtful guy. And he's certainly appealing to those of us who want to have a thoughtful, well-articulated response to the problems we're facing. But I think that there is a guttural kind of, you know, innate drive that folks want. They either want free shit, or they want to be left alone. And, you know, you're gonna need to appeal to one of those two motives.

• 2:31:59Jason Calacanis?

  Brad, how would you have voted, had your choice been, and I'm gonna go around the horn on this, so everybody gets a chance to think about it, except really Brad. Brad, if you had the choice,

• 2:32:10Brad Gerstner?

  Yep.

• 2:32:11Jason Calacanis?

  Elizabeth Warren slash Bernie, hardcore socialist, let's go with Bernie, since I think he's even more on the socialist side, or Trump? Could you have conceived of voting for Trump over Bernie? Or would you have voted, actually voted for Bernie Sanders?

• 2:32:30Jason Calacanis?

  Take your time, and you can think out loud when you answer that question.

• 2:32:32Brad Gerstner?

  No, I mean, I have to say that, um, you know, I have a nine and 12-year-old boy, boys, and the conversation we had is, it's not just about what you stand for, it's about how you stand for it.

• 2:32:48Jason Calacanis?

  Character.

• 2:32:49Brad Gerstner?

  Character. And I just couldn't tolerate, uh, Trump's character, either in my own life, my own level of anxiety, or, or... Standing for that, you know, and telling my boys that that's a okay way to lead. And so for me, I was willing to vote against my own interests. And taking comfort in the fact that four years under any president is not enough to really change the arc of the country. But to send a signal that, you know, how you lead matters in this country. And a rejection of this form of leadership.

• 2:33:28Phil Hellmuth?

  Yeah, but Brad, if you didn't think that Bernie Sanders policies would actually, I mean, if you thought they would actually pass everything he wanted to do, you couldn't conceive then of voting for Trump?

• 2:33:38Brad Gerstner?

  Yeah, I mean, you know, again, like I would just say that I would have bet that the system that we have would have been slow enough in moving that Bernie would not have been, you know, that when weighing those two evils, right, that, you know, again, for me.

• 2:33:55Phil Hellmuth?

  Socialism versus Trump are your two evils.

• 2:33:57Brad Gerstner?

  I can, I can tolerate the mean spiritedness perhaps myself. But, you know, like I'm trying to, you know, I think it is important that we, we say that like this is not what we stand for. This is not a an honorable way to lead. And, and certainly when it comes to sitting around the dinner table every night and talking to them about the way I expect them to behave in their form of leadership. You know, that, that mean spiritedness just didn't work for me.

• 2:34:23Jason Calacanis?

  Would anybody else like to answer that question?

• 2:34:25David Sacks?

  Well, I'm not, I'm not going to disagree with any of that, but I would just like to point out, I'd like to ask a question, actually, which is, if, if this president was so bad that he had to be impeached, why wasn't that a campaign issue? I don't remember it being mentioned once by Biden that Trump was impeached. You would think that impeaching the president would be something you'd want to make a major campaign issue. So I just think this idea that Trump is the only one who's dishonest and unethical. You know, that whole Russian.

• 2:34:59David Sacks?

  The insane hoax that they put us through for years, they put this whole country through. Before the guy even took office, they were trying to delegitimize his election. I mean, come on, you can't just look at Trump's behavior, which I agree is outrageous, and not look at the other side and say they're doing the same thing. And this is like a, they're, they're, they're sort of like co-equal partners in this chaos that's been created.

• 2:35:25Jason Calacanis?

  David, let's be candid.

• 2:35:25David Sacks?

  They're, they're co-founders in chaos.

• 2:35:28Jason Calacanis?

  Let's be candid. All these politicians that we've had to live with in our lifetime are grifters. We know that. And their kids are grifters. Putting that aside, do you think there is any chance that the Russians have not bought an inordinate amount of apartments from Donald Trump at extraordinary prices?

• 2:35:45David Sacks?

  Are you just making that up, or?

• 2:35:48Jason Calacanis?

  I'm just going with my gut.

• 2:35:50David Sacks?

  Right, exactly. Yeah, Q E D, case in point, because you feel it, you can now make an accusation that the president has received bribes from the Russians. I mean, come on.

• 2:36:01Jason Calacanis?

  Well, we know Putin.

• 2:36:01David Sacks?

  And actually, I wanna, I wanna bring up something.

• 2:36:03Jason Calacanis?

  The election. We all know Putin interfered with the election. And we all know he interfered on behalf of one candidate. Okay?

• 2:36:09David Sacks?

  I, I honestly like.

• 2:36:11Jason Calacanis?

  Unless you don't trust the CIA, unless you don't trust the FBI, unless you don't trust our agents.

• 2:36:15David Sacks?

  Really? I mean, you're still holding on to this crazy idea?

• 2:36:18Phil Hellmuth?

  Every election we've ever had, Jason.

• 2:36:20David Sacks?

  J-

• 2:36:21Phil Hellmuth?

  The story's more than the New York Post.

• 2:36:24David Sacks?

  We had, we had Bob, we had Bob Mueller with a team of like 18, like pit bull Democratic prosecutors and 50 special FBI agents, let me finish.

• 2:36:34Jason Calacanis?

  What happened to Manafort?

• 2:36:35David Sacks?

  Who investigated for two years and they couldn't find any collusion. I mean, come on. And you're still hanging on to this, this insane fallacy? And you're wondering why the American people are turning against, why they're willing to vote for Trump again? Come on. Can't you see the insanity of the other side?

• 2:36:54Jason Calacanis?

  Well, I mean, I did see Manafort go to jail and pay a 25, 30 million dollar fine. And I did see that Trump's kids took the meeting with the Russians to try to set up a secret back channel. So while they might not have been smart enough or effective enough to actually collude, there certainly was a lot of graft going on.

• 2:37:13David Sacks?

  This is, this is, this is on the level, if not worse than the whole Hunter Biden hard drive story, which I thought was a ridiculous story, which I thought was a ridiculous story, an attempt to smear up Biden. Come on. For you to lay this integrity issue on Trump alone, which I agree, there's some truth there, and not lay it on his Democratic inquisitors in the Senate who put, in the House who put us through this impeachment hooks for two years? Come on.

• 2:37:42David Friedberg?

  We're starting to sound a little like AM radio. Let's get it.

• 2:37:45Jason Calacanis?

  We did go there.

• 2:37:46Phil Hellmuth?

  No, Sacks is a free thinker. I like this. He's a free thinker for.

• 2:37:49David Sacks?

  But it's like, you got, but, but this word impeachment, this entire campaign.

• 2:37:53Phil Hellmuth?

  All Sacks is saying is own both sides of this.

• 2:37:56Jason Calacanis?

  I just said Hunter Biden is a complete.

• 2:37:58David Sacks?

  Jason, can you say the word impeachment? Can you say it? Can you say the word impeachment?

• 2:38:06Jason Calacanis?

  Impeachment? I just said it.

• 2:38:08David Sacks?

  Okay, there we go. I was wondering what happened to that word. You know, normally, normally when you impeach a president, normally when you impeach a president, it becomes a really big campaign issue. It becomes a really big campaign issue.

• 2:38:18Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Nick, can you please throw Georgia back on the map, please? Are you guys seeing this, that, that now they're tipping Georgia back to Biden?

• 2:38:29David Friedberg?

  Who is?

• 2:38:33Chamath Palihapitiya?

  This is insane.

• 2:38:34David Friedberg?

  Where?

• 2:38:35David Sacks?

  Well, they're also saying that Arizona may have been prematurely called for Biden. So Arizona may be back in play for Trump.

• 2:38:45Phil Hellmuth?

  That was really weird that they called Arizona so early, wasn't it?

• 2:38:47David Friedberg?

  And only Fox, only Fox has done it, I think.

• 2:38:50Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Yeah, Nick, where do you have, how do you have Georgia reporting right now? How much is in right now? Uh, yeah, click on Georgia just for a second. We have 81%. Yeah, the Times had it flip on at 9:13 PM. I have a screenshot which shows Biden plus four. And then North Carolina is now just Trump plus 1.1.

• 2:39:10David Friedberg?

  Michael, isn't it

• 2:39:11Jason Calacanis?

  Well, and Arizona is 76.

• 2:39:13David Friedberg?

  When they show the precinct reporting, it's precincts reporting, right? It doesn't show, uh, mail-ins or by precinct or mail-ins or at the state level.

• 2:39:20Speaker 05

  Well, a precinct will have both mail-ins and, uh, election day votes. Uh, and when they, and when they say 81% of precincts reporting, that doesn't mean that 81% of precincts are finished reporting. It's a very misleading, uh, number because what it, it means that 81% of precincts have reported what they have, but it doesn't mean they're finished counting necessarily.

• 2:39:48David Friedberg?

  Right.

• 2:39:49Speaker 05

  So, you know, Atlanta is probably, uh, the precincts in Atlanta have probably reported some vote. In fact, we, we see that when we click on it. But there's obviously a lot of outstanding vote in Georgia. There could be outstanding vote, uh, in some precincts in North Carolina as well. And they, at this point, once you get into the 95% and above range, they do tend to be, uh, urban centers that are, that obviously have a lot more vote to count. It gets late at night, they go home, uh, they finish in the morning.

• 2:40:18Bill Gurley?

  Or three days later.

• 2:40:20Jason Calacanis?

  If you go zoom in on Arizona, please, 76% of voting reporting.

• 2:40:24Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I mean, how is this possible?

• 2:40:26Jason Calacanis?

  54% basically.

• 2:40:28Bill Gurley?

  I don't know, but in, in all those things, you're gonna have the intensity you had around hanging chats in Dade County, you're just gonna have like massive tension and drama around counting each of these last votes.

• 2:40:42Speaker 05

  Yeah, we're gonna have five Floridas. You knew 2020 would do this on the way out the door.

• 2:40:48David Sacks?

  Yeah. So, so Arizona, they counted all the absentee ballots for the mail-in ballots first, but the in-person voting hasn't been counted yet. So you can't call that state if they haven't counted all the in-person because Trump's gonna do better with, you know, election day ballots.

• 2:41:02Speaker 05

  I agree. It's premature.

• 2:41:04Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Well, it depends on whether they're considering Phoenix as part of that, right?

• 2:41:08Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, why is Nevada only reporting 1%?

• 2:41:14David Friedberg?

  In local news, there are now groups of people gathering at Oakland City Hall.

• 2:41:20Jason Calacanis?

  So they, they go there when like.

• 2:41:25Jason Calacanis?

  What night aren't they rioting in Oakland? I mean, come on. In Berkeley, they smashed a pizzeria window. They do it every other week.

• 2:41:34David Sacks?

  Hey, hey, guys, I want to, I want to just discuss an idea I have that might be a little bit cheeky, but since Jake Hall and I were getting into it before, I kind of want to, I want to talk about it a little bit.

• 2:41:44Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, let's do it.

• 2:41:45David Sacks?

  Which is, I've, I've called that Trump Derangement Score.

• 2:41:51David Sacks?

  Which is, if you go to Twitter, that, yeah, Trump Derangement Score, which is if you go to Twitter and search Trump from your username, it'll show you how many tweets you've, you've published that you've posted that mentioned the word Trump. And so I did this before the show to see which bestie had tweeted the most and see what the score was. And my sense is like, if your, your score is like zero to 10, you haven't really paid a lot of attention to Trump. It's probably like very healthy. And then if you're in like the 10 to 30 range, you're paying a little more attention. This could be a normal interest.

• 2:42:29Jason Calacanis?

  Here it comes.

• 2:42:34David Sacks?

  Say, hold on, if you're in like the 30 to 50 range, I think you pretty much are infected. There's two strains. There's kind of the MAGA strain and then there's the resistance strain. But clearly you've tested positive for Trump Derangement Syndrome. And then I would say there's kind of like an advanced level where you can't even count how many tweets there are. You've got to like scroll and like you keep scrolling and you can't even get to the bottom. And that's, that's like a level of infection where you need to immediately quarantine yourself. And so anyway, I, I, I did this and anyway, the winner actually was Friedberg. Friedberg only had, he had a score of one. He literally only had one tweet mentioning Trump for the last four years.

• 2:43:19David Sacks?

  I only had eight, but in fairness, five of them were posted yesterday to advertise this, this pod. So I.

• 2:43:28David Friedberg?

  My one was during this podcast, by the way.

• 2:43:32David Sacks?

  Yeah. Tomoth at 20.

• 2:43:34Jason Calacanis?

  I had 20.

• 2:43:35David Sacks?

  You had about 20, about 20. Yeah. And then Jake Hall, you, you were in scrolling territory. I couldn't even, I couldn't even count. I gave up.

• 2:43:44Jason Calacanis?

  Well played.

• 2:43:48David Sacks?

  I feel for you. I really feel for you that you're hurting over this election. Like, you know, I don't like, I'm not trying to make fun of you or see you.

• 2:43:55Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Hey, guys, guys, another, just another quick update here that, um, uh, DeKalb County, Fulton County, and Cobb County in Georgia are pro-Democrat. They're huge, and they're at 31%, 58%, and 70%. And if you play these out, there's somewhere between 400,000 and 500,000, uh, potential incremental votes for Biden, which would eke out Georgia for Biden, potentially, according to just this last.

• 2:44:34Jason Calacanis?

  Just looking at Fox News, I think that they're trolling the libs, because they have Trump at 210, uh, and they have Joe Biden at 237. Uh, the, the New York Times has, let me just make sure I'm refreshing here and have the latest data, 213 to 145. So Fox is aggressively calling electoral votes,

• 2:45:03Jason Calacanis?

  um, at a level that, uh,

• 2:45:07Jason Calacanis?

  the New York Times is, is far behind, like, behind by 50, at least 100.

• 2:45:15Chamath Palihapitiya?

  What, what is the explanation of this?

• 2:45:18Jason Calacanis?

  Wow. Uh, I, this is, I mean, this is nuts. Um, MSNBC, 205 electoral votes for Joe Biden, which, uh,

• 2:45:28Speaker 05

  NBC has been the most conservative overall.

• 2:45:32David Friedberg?

  What happens if it's tied? It can tie, right? We, we still have that scenario on the table.

• 2:45:37Speaker 05

  269, 269. Uh, uh, yeah, there's probably a way to, to get there. Uh, let's see. Uh, well, interestingly, uh,

• 2:45:48Speaker 05

  Biden did not get that one district in Omaha, Nebraska that he had targeted that Obama won his first time that would give you one electoral vote in Nebraska, Nebraska and Maine both. You get you get two for winning the state and you get one for each of the congressional districts. So while while Biden was not going to play in overall in Nebraska, he had a shot at Omaha. And that 272 68 scenario we talked about earlier could have potentially been 269 269 if that Omaha district was in play. But the polling really missed.

• 2:46:23Jason Calacanis?

  Michael, just to jump in, BG Gurley, Gurley's got to hop off, boys. Say bye to Gurley.

• 2:46:30Bill Gurley?

  Thanks for having me. Appreciate it.

• 2:46:31Jason Calacanis?

  Bill Gurley, miss your best to BG.

• 2:46:35Phil Hellmuth?

  Speaking of Bill Gurley, how about Texas? I mean, I think I think Texas is definitely going to be Republican, right, Michael?

• 2:46:41Speaker 05

  Yeah, that one's trending far away from Biden. He looks like he's down about 500,000.

• 2:46:46Phil Hellmuth?

  So how many points is that? No one's called that yet, right?

• 2:46:48Speaker 05

  It's bizarre that Florida and Texas are still listed as in play.

• 2:46:53Phil Hellmuth?

  Right. So that could explain what J. K. is looking at between the disparity and what.

• 2:46:58Speaker 05

  Yeah, I don't blame Fox. If Fox called Texas, I don't blame them. But I think Arizona, yeah, that might.

• 2:47:03Phil Hellmuth?

  That would explain your difference, J. K. Texas and Florida.

• 2:47:07Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, Fox.

• 2:47:09Speaker 05

  Yeah, that's 60 67 votes right there.

• 2:47:11Phil Hellmuth?

  That explains it.

• 2:47:13Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah. So the New York Times has not called Florida or Texas.

• 2:47:17Phil Hellmuth?

  The New York Times had Florida at 98%. I mean, it's like 99.9 or something.

• 2:47:22Jason Calacanis?

  If you add 38 for Texas, 29 for Florida, you're 67. 67 until the 145 puts you at 212 and Joe Biden at 213, which would be a one point difference.

• 2:47:38Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Ralph Warnock and Kelly Loeffler in a runoff for the Senate seat in Georgia. That's just incredible. I mean.

• 2:47:43Brad Gerstner?

  Hey guys, a comment and then a question. Uh, it looks like the Washington Post is projecting that California approved Prop 22. Um, so there's a, uh, that's the first one.

• 2:47:56David Sacks?

  Biden's speaking right now, I think, right?

• 2:47:58Phil Hellmuth?

  Yeah, Biden is not speaking yet, but he's, he's getting ready.

• 2:48:01David Sacks?

  Biden's about to speak.

• 2:48:02Brad Gerstner?

  The implied volatility on Uber stock at the, at the close today was 14%.

• 2:48:07David Sacks?

  But by the way, every ballot initiative in San Francisco, the city level ballot initiatives passed. One of them, the Prop H was good, all the rest were a disaster. So San Fran, so the, the state level ballot initiatives were pretty good news for California, but San Francisco.

• 2:48:21Phil Hellmuth?

  Lock shop. Okay. Not much of that.

• 2:48:24David Sacks?

  So, you know, in, in terms of what we were talking about earlier about creating a more business friendly environment, unfortunately, what happened in San Francisco? I think California as a whole is positive with Prop 22, Prop 15 failing. Um, but every single crazy ballot initiative in, in San Francisco passed, so it's just getting crazier in San Francisco.

• 2:48:44Jason Calacanis?

  I don't know if you did this in your household, but with my 10 year old, Brad, I went through, my wife and I, Jade, we, we went through each of the uh, ballot initiatives as many as we could. We listened to little encapsulations of what they were and we, and we talked about the stem cell one. And I just thought, why is California, which is losing all of these businesses, adding to the tax burden, stem cell research? And why isn't that being done by the private sector? If there is a huge prize to be had with stem cell, why would we have California send billions of dollars on this?

• 2:49:23Jason Calacanis?

  When we're losing all the, this government, I'm wondering, uh, you know, how, how people thought about something like that, like the stem cell. Did you vote for that, David? To continue to have California flip the bill for stem?

• 2:49:36Brad Gerstner?

  I, by the way, just before you answer David, I took the pages of the ballot initiative and I used them to keep my white truffles from developing humidity.

• 2:49:46Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I mean, basically, there is

• 2:49:47David Sacks?

  The truth of the matter, Jason, is that when I don't understand a ballot initiative, I just vote against it. And I didn't really understand the stump so ballot initiative, or why even why if that was a spending priority, why it couldn't just be handled by the state, you know, legislature, I didn't understand why that needed to be a ballot initiative. So, you know, I feel like ballot initiatives, like I'll support them when the state legislature does something wrong, like was a perfect example where, you know, Lorraine or whatever, the had this tremendous amount of power, passed this crazy AB5, and the people had to overrule that. So I feel like that's where like these ballot initiatives make sense is when you want to overrule the legislature. But, you know, it's kind of crazy for to be

• 2:50:31David Sacks?

  passing these laws directly when, you know, we don't know that much about them.

• 2:50:36Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Concur.

• 2:50:38David Sacks?

  I mean, the founders had this vision of representative democracy, not direct democracy. And that's generally a good idea.

• 2:50:45Brad Gerstner?

  So, Jason.

• 2:50:46Speaker 05

  I don't know. You have to kind of like what director the results that direct democracy has produced tonight. The initiatives may be saving us from ourselves, since we don't have in this state, unfortunately, a viable Republican Party to represent us. The initiatives may be our last line of defense.

• 2:51:01David Sacks?

  Well, I think I think you're right in terms of overruling things. But like in San Francisco, you know, every single ballot initiative passed, and I think most of them are just

• 2:51:10Speaker 05

  Well, there's no saving San Francisco. We all knew that.

• 2:51:14David Sacks?

  Well, I don't like hearing that.

• 2:51:17Speaker 05

  Come to LA, baby. We got a few more years at least.

• 2:51:22Brad Gerstner?

  What is the consensus view seems to be the markets are still up, Nasdaq futures up 280 still. What what causes us to wake up tomorrow or the next day and have the futures down 34500 bits?

• 2:51:39Chamath Palihapitiya?

  There's there's one thing. And so far, it hasn't happened. And if we avoid it, we're going to fade a really big out here, which is Trump declares victory right now.

• 2:51:54Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I think that is the disaster scenario because I think Biden's gonna get up there. He's not gonna say much of anything. He'll be very kind of down the middle. You know, kind of let's take a wait and see approach. We're waiting until tomorrow. There's a lot to go. Grind it out, blah, blah, blah. But if Trump comes out and says, we won, we're done, let's move on. It's gonna be panicked because look, I mean, you can't certify Georgia, apparently.

• 2:52:20David Sacks?

  Right.

• 2:52:22Chamath Palihapitiya?

  So, you know, there's a path where there's seven or eight states that have to go through on a meticulous recount.

• 2:52:30David Sacks?

  I think this thing is back to a coin flip. I mean, Trump now has to win Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in order to win the presidency. If Biden wins any one of those three states, he wins. He has to be a three for three in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

• 2:52:49Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Well, Georgia is God.

• 2:52:51David Sacks?

  Well, but we're saying that may that may become ungot. So if he loses Georgia, he loses. If he loses Pennsylvania, he loses. If he loses Michigan, he loses. Assuming he's already lost Wisconsin and Arizona.

• 2:53:08Brad Gerstner?

  So, hey, guys, Biden's coming out, but my analysts just run this analysis. If Biden wins Ann Arbor and Detroit by the same percentage as 2016, that's 420,000 Biden incremental votes versus the 300,000 current Trump lead. So just apply the Clinton math and he wins Michigan.

• 2:53:30Speaker 09

  We feel good about where we are. We really do.

• 2:53:38Speaker 09

  I'm here to tell you tonight, we believe we're on track to win this election.

• 2:53:47Speaker 09

  We knew because of the unprecedented early vote and the mail-in vote, that's gonna take a while. We're gonna have to be patient until we, the hard work of tallying the votes is finished. And it ain't over till every vote is counted, every ballot is counted.

• 2:54:10Speaker 09

  But we're feeling good. We're feeling good about where we are. We believe, one of the Nets has suggested we've already won Arizona, but we're confident about Arizona. That's a turnaround. We also just called it from Minnesota, and we're still in the game in Georgia, although that's not one we expected. And we're feeling real good about Wisconsin and Michigan. And by the way, it's gonna take time to count the votes, we're gonna win Pennsylvania. Yes! We're talking to the folks in Philly, Allegheny County, Scranton, and they're really encouraged

• 2:54:55Speaker 09

  by the turnout and what they see. Look, you know, we could know the results as early as tomorrow morning, but it may take a little longer, as I've said all along. It's not my place or Donald Trump's place to declare who's won this election. That's the decision of the American people. But I'm optimistic about this outcome. And I want to thank every one of you who came out and voted in this election. And by the way, Chris Coons and the Democrats, congratulations here in Delaware. Johnny Turner. Hey, John, the Gov, yeah, the whole team, man. You've done a great job.

• 2:55:35Speaker 09

  I'm grateful to the poll workers, to our volunteers, our canvassers, everyone who participated in this democratic process. And I'm grateful to all of my supporters here in Delaware and all across the nation. Thank you, thank you, thank you. And folks, you heard me say it before, every time I walk out of my grandpa's house up in Scranton, he'd yell, "Joey, keep the faith." And my grandmom, when she was alive, he'd yell, "No, Joey, spread it." Keep the faith, guys, we're gonna win this. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

• 2:56:08Jason Calacanis?

  Oh my God. Well, there you have it.

• 2:56:10Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Guys, before, before, before we just, I just wanted to give a big shout out and thank you to Brad Gerstner.

• 2:56:15Jason Calacanis?

  Thanks, Brad.

• 2:56:16Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Incredible investor and person and thinker. Thank you, BG, for being on the call.

• 2:56:22David Sacks?

  Thanks for having me, guys.

• 2:56:23Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Really appreciate it.

• 2:56:23David Sacks?

  Incredible, incredible time.

• 2:56:24Jason Calacanis?

  And thanks to Bill Gurley, who stepped in, and Phil Hellmuth. This has been a great first time effort. We, we, we had, I think, about 4,000 of you at the peak here and certainly 5,000 or 6,000 over the night. This was an experiment. I think a successful one. And of course, I'm speaking about this country, America. What a successful experiment it has been to change.

• 2:56:50Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Jason, Jason, you can unclench your, your nether regions because I think we're going to be okay.

• 2:56:57Jason Calacanis?

  You think we're going to be okay?

• 2:56:59Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Yeah.

• 2:56:59Phil Hellmuth?

  It's very tight. Anyway, see you guys. Good night. Thank you.

• 2:57:02Jason Calacanis?

  All right. Thank you.

• 2:57:02Speaker 05

  I'm, I'm changing my prediction to scenario three. Biden presidency.

• 2:57:06Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, yeah, yeah. Let's do that as we wrap. Besties. Besties, bestesties. I'm still sticking with Biden.

• 2:57:12Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I'm still sticking with Biden.

• 2:57:14Jason Calacanis?

  Okay.

• 2:57:15David Sacks?

  Trump just tweeted that I will be making a statement tonight, a big win. So we, we're either in scenarios. Well, I mean, it's not.

• 2:57:22Speaker 05

  Two, three and four are all still on the table.

• 2:57:25David Sacks?

  Just for, I don't know if the viewers remember, scenario one was a Biden landslide. That's clearly not happening.

• 2:57:29Speaker 05

  Off the table.

• 2:57:30David Sacks?

  Scenario two was, was basically, was, was Trump pulling a big upset that's still on the table. I'd say probably 49% chance right now, 40, 45% chance. Then you've kind of got the scenario three was the soft landing where Biden wins the presidency, but the Republicans take the, the Senate. And I think it's probably like the 51%. And then scenario four was the shit show. That was a totally inconclusive outcome.

• 2:58:01Jason Calacanis?

  And here we are.

• 2:58:02David Sacks?

  Here we are. So, I mean, the reality is, I think this thing, I mean, I think it's probably at the end of the day, 51, 49 in favor of Biden right now, but we probably have at least three more days and maybe a bunch of court cases.

• 2:58:15Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah.

• 2:58:16David Sacks?

  This could, this could be really bad. I mean, we may not know who the winner is till December, and this may require another stream court case.

• 2:58:23Speaker 05

  I think we'll know within a week who won. But it's gonna be a, it's gonna be a white knuckle kinda week.

• 2:58:29Jason Calacanis?

  We, um, we'll know, I think we're gonna know tomorrow.

• 2:58:33Phil Hellmuth?

  I think we're gonna know tomorrow. I'm with Trump.

• 2:58:35David Sacks?

  I, I, I guess, you know, I guess based on the electoral map, I'd say it's 51, 49 in favor of Biden at this moment.

• 2:58:42Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, so Sax wants Biden to win. Uh, Friedberg, where are you at the end of this shit show?

• 2:58:51Jason Calacanis?

  Known as 2020.

• 2:58:52David Friedberg?

  I was looking at which island in Hawaii I want to go to.

• 2:58:57Jason Calacanis?

  I'm, I'm looking at Austin and then just to look at our final.

• 2:59:03Speaker 05

  The dots are getting a little better for Trump. I wonder.

• 2:59:06Jason Calacanis?

  Who the hell knows? This has been an incredible evening.

• 2:59:10David Friedberg?

  Feel better about the market reaction. I feel like, you know, those of us who operate businesses and try and build businesses and, you know, have employees and all this stuff. I mean, I'm disappointed in San Francisco. It's a fucking shit show of a city. But, uh, I feel good about the fact that markets are taking this well and it, it, you know, means businesses will continue to operate and find funding and.

• 2:59:30Jason Calacanis?

  Shout out Bill Lee in Hawaii.

• 2:59:32Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Muthie, Muthie, what's your pick? And then J Cal and then we're, we're gonna bounce.

• 2:59:37Phil Hellmuth?

  I have to go with the math. I think Trump, uh, $1.60 is pretty significant. So I have to pick that direction.

• 2:59:44Jason Calacanis?

  And I'm going by. All right, everybody. This has been a special edition of the.

• 2:59:47Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Love you besties.

• 2:59:48Jason Calacanis?

  Thank you, Michael.

• 2:59:49Speaker 05

  Thank you. Thank you for having me. I enjoyed it. Thank you.

• 2:59:51Phil Hellmuth?

  Later, guys.

• 2:59:52Speaker 05

  See you guys at the poker table soon. Yum, yum.

• 2:59:55Jason Calacanis?

  Soon, yes. Bye bye.