Oil Market Turbulence, Sundar's New Comp Package, TBPN Weather Report | Diet TBPN

Diet TBPN delivers the best of today’s TBPN episode in 30 minutes. TBPN is a live tech talk show hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays, streaming weekdays 11–2 PT on X and YouTube, with each episode posted to podcast platforms right after. Described by The New York Times as “Silicon Valley’s newest obsession,” the show has recently featured Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Mark Cuban, and Satya Nadella. TBPN is made possible by: Ramp - https://Ramp.com https://ramp.com/ AppLovin - https://axon.ai https://axon.ai/ Cisco - https://www.cisco.com https://www.cisco.com/ Cognition - https://cognition.ai https://cognition.ai/ Console - https://console.com https://console.com/ CrowdStrike - https://crowdstrike.com https://crowdstrike.com/ ElevenLabs - https://elevenlabs.io https://elevenlabs.io/ Figma - https://figma.com https://figma.com/ Fin - https://fin.ai https://fin.ai/ Gemini - https://gemini.google.com https://gemini.google.com/ Graphite - https://graphite.com https://graphite.com/ Gusto - https://gusto.com/tbpn Kalshi - https://kalshi.com https://kalshi.com/ Labelbox - https://labelbox.com https://labelbox.com/ Lambda - https://lambda.ai https://lambda.ai/ Linear - https://linear.app https://linear.app/ MongoDB - https://mongodb.com https://mongodb.com/ NYSE - https://nyse.com https://nyse.com/ Okta - https://www.okta.com https://www.okta.com/ Phantom - https://phantom.com/cash Plaid - https://plaid.com https://plaid.com/ Public - https://public.com https://public.com/ Railway - https://railway.com https://railway.com/ Restream - https://restream.io https://restream.io/ Sentry - https://sentry.io https://sentry.io/ Shopify - https://shopify.com/tbpn Turbopuffer - https://turbopuffer.com https://turbopuffer.com/ Vanta - https://vanta.com https://vanta.com/ Vibe - https://vibe.co https://vibe.co/ Follow TBPN: https://TBPN.com https://x.com/tbpn https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235 https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00John Coogan?

  Of course, oil is, it's gushing all over the timeline, all over the Financial Times, all over the Wall Street Journal. Let's go through the timeline and see how people are processing the news of the Strait of Hormuz and the oil price spikes.

• 0:13Jordi Hays?

  Fox News this morning, they were saying, just basically their advice to the, to the captains was to man up and just send it.

• 0:23John Coogan?

  Yeah, send it. That seems crazy. If you are on a shipping vessel, please stay safe.

• 0:29Jordi Hays?

  I'll read the actual quote. A guy, Brian, said, "If you want to diminish the Iranian threat, if you want to make sure this ends with complete capitulation, show some guts and go through that strait."

• 0:40John Coogan?

  That seems very, very risky right now. Stay safe out there if you are on a shipping vessel. There are some crazy twists happening. So apparently ships in the Gulf are declaring themselves as Chinese vessels to dodge attack. At least 10 vessels have changed transponder messages in an apparent attempt to avoid becoming targets. Clutch of vessels trapped in the Gulf under enemy fire are adopting a tried and tested ruse to avoid attacks. They're changing flags, using transponders to declare themselves to be Chinese. There's always been a very odd tug of war between how ships identify themselves because often for tax reasons, they're bought in one country, operated by individuals from another company, but they fly a different flag to be able to go from one place to another.

• 1:25John Coogan?

  And it's all based on like the port systems. I don't fully understand it, but it is very interesting. At least 10 ships over the past week have altered their destination signal to read Chinese owner, all Chinese crew, or Chinese crew on board. About 1,000 ships are currently shut inside the Gulf and its immediate surroundings with a cumulative value of $25 billion.

• 1:43Jordi Hays?

  And I don't know if you've seen some of the maps that show the strait where it looks like nothing is actually moving through. I think in actuality, a number of the ships are actually turning off their transponders. So you can't see the movement because they're basically moving a little bit, going through the strait. And then turning back on.

• 2:03John Coogan?

  I wrote about what oil, what oil prices mean for the AI build out and data centers. It's just sort of interesting to dig into the deeper supply chain of artificial intelligence. But there are some posts that we should go through around the oil story. So crude oil is five standard deviations above its 50 day moving average. Statistically speaking, this occurs every 9,500 years. So the last time would have been about 6,000 years before Moses parted the Red Sea. Imagine what that did to shipping in the area. Fancy.

• 2:36Jordi Hays?

  Pull up this clip from Landman.

• 2:37John Coogan?

  I haven't seen Landman. Have you watched it? Is it good? Let's.

• 2:43Speaker 02

  You want oil to live above 60 but below 90. And don't get me wrong, we're still printing money at 90, but gas gets up over 350 a gallon. It starts to pinch. It's 100, every product in America has to readjust its price. $78 a barrel, that's about perfect. Yeah, it brings enough profit to keep exploring, but it don't sting as much to pump. Unless, of course, you're in California. I mean, they tax the shit out of it out there. It could be $45 a barrel and it's still $4 to pump. I don't know how those son of bitches do it out there.

• 3:16John Coogan?

  It's movie day.

• 3:17Speaker 02

  2020.

• 3:18John Coogan?

  TV again.

• 3:18Speaker 02

  A barrel of oil is worthless. This place became a ghost town. And nobody's immune. Kids have to quit college. Trucks get sold or repoed.

• 3:30Jordi Hays?

  How old were you when you discovered that gas is really expensive in California? Not just because there's a lot of demand for it.

• 3:37John Coogan?

  I mean, I discovered it when I was filling up in Montana and it was like $2 a gallon. And it's like $5 a gallon here. That was pretty wild. The first major gas price shock that I noticed was Hurricane Katrina in my life. I think it was in high school because I was too young.

• 3:51Jordi Hays?

  I was talking about, I was talking about just the fact realizing that it's so expensive because of the taxes that California puts on it.

• 3:58John Coogan?

  Yeah, because it's nice to drive around here, put the top down. The weather's good, so they're like, yeah, you're gonna pay, you're gonna pay more for the joys of driving and a, a, an internal combustion engine car. No, uh, the price in California is, is aggressive. I don't know the structure of the prices, though. Is it percentage based or fixed? Because that affects how much the price will move based on oil price shocks. So, because if the price per barrel doubles, but the, but the tax is flat, you don't feel it as much here as you do other places, so.

• 4:30Jordi Hays?

  I'm pulling it up, but you can run through.

• 4:32John Coogan?

  It's the largest supply shock by a factor of four. So, the Hormuz blockade, which is current, uh, 20 million barrels were lost in supply. The Iranian revolution in 1978 was 5.6 million. The Yom Kippur war embargoes in 73 was 4.4. The Iraq Kuwait war was 4.3 in 1990. The Iran-Iraq war in 1980 was 4.0. And then the Ukraine-Russia invasion in 2022, which is the last time that oil spiked over a hundred dollars a barrel, was 1 to 3. So, an absolutely huge supply shock, and I'm sure it will have a lot of implications all over the economy. With triple-digit prices, here's what's going to happen now, says Policy Tensor. Markets

• 5:16John Coogan?

  will scream when they open tomorrow. VIX will surge to levels beyond what we saw in April. The sell-off will continue for some time as intermediaries shed risk. And the markets are red. They have been screaming today. Uh, the VIX futures curve already has inverted, bid up by dealers looking for insurance. This predicts a massive sell-off. The pressure on this captured White House now, now beings in earnest, that's kind of sort of oddly written. Anyone can tell them that if this persists for very long, it will destroy the Trump presidency and gut the GOP for a generation. The controlling factor here, as I have told you over and over again, is that the United States does not have the military means to

• 5:57John Coogan?

  reopen Hormuz. Uh, there's no military solution in sight. This means that not only does Iran have the strategic upper hand now, it means that Iran enjoys the unambiguous strategic advantage. Uh, all they need to do is keep the thing closed until he capitulates. I put my neck out far to call this in advance, and, uh, someone told him yesterday I was in the minority, perhaps even a minority of one. No longer. I was correct. Just calling a shot. The blob heads and scribes were incorrect in their assessment of the strategic situation and now markets will price to reflect reality. We briefly touched on Scott Sumner's blog post on Substack at the end of Thursday's show, maybe Friday's show. We didn't get a chance to read it. I actually read through it earlier today.

• 6:42John Coogan?

  It's pretty interesting. It basically makes the case, you know, it has a very controversial tendency to freak out and the thought is that like he's doom posting, maybe it's about AI, maybe it's about this particular conflict. He is more just reflecting on this dynamic between when the market freaks out, it acts as a moderating effect to policy. And so he gives a number of examples around like tariffs.

• 7:05Jordi Hays?

  Or more specifically the admin.

• 7:06John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, like the tariffs caused this massive circuit breaker, 5% sell off in the market. And then that was internalized and very quickly adjusted. And there were a whole bunch of different carve outs to sort of like create soft landings. And so he's actually, what he's getting at is that after the fact, a lot of people say, look, you didn't need to freak out because the taco happened. Trump always chickens out. The actual proposed policy effect didn't go into, didn't go into effect. And his point is that, well, it's precisely because people freaked out that it didn't go into effect. So freaking out is good in Scott Sumner's mind at least. Anyway, I love this.

• 7:45Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, we have a solution.

• 7:46John Coogan?

  We have a solution. If you're feeling the pain at the pump, pivot and get a horse at oil at 110. The urban horse is the only option. Pulling up to the gas station on a horse is truly elite. I do want to know, what's the TCO on a horse with the food and the stables versus, you know, just keeping a, what is that, a Ford Taurus in your, I don't know, that's something else, you know, in your garage. The horse really mogs at the, at the gas station in particular, right? Because it's just making everyone feel so stupid. Yeah, we got to go back. One horsepower is all you need. Nick Carter says, seeing a lot of non-processed trusting panic-ins on the TL.

• 8:31John Coogan?

  And then he followed up by saying, that's what I thought because the oil prices spiked up and then they fell down and we did not get $120 a barrel oil. We got exactly 100, which was still-

• 8:43Jordi Hays?

  It's not like it's way, way, way too early to celebrate or anything.

• 8:46John Coogan?

  Yeah, exactly. Unreal numbers about Germany's nuclear power generation. So if you scroll down, look at this curve. This is truly the bell curve meme or something like that. JP Morgan estimates that had Germany not phased out nuclear power, the country would have generated 50% less electricity from fossil fuels and 84% less electricity from natural gas in 2024. Electricity prices in Germany would have been around 25% lower and the country would have imported half as much electricity. And just complete rise and fall of nuclear power generation in Germany. One of the craziest graphs. You don't see graphs

• 9:26John Coogan?

  like that very often in new technologies. Typically, you see S-curves or you see exponentials. No one considers the models get better and then they get dumber. That's certainly the funniest outcome. Goldman Sachs sent a note to investors saying if oil prices increased by $10 and remain elevated for three months, US year-over-year headline CPI inflation would likely rise from 2.4% in January to 3% in May. Those are small numbers, but we're looking at a oil price increase of maybe $30, $40 over the baseline, potentially higher. We don't know where oil's gonna land. And so you have this weird tug-of-war right now with the Fed where if oil prices go up, inflation goes up, the Fed has a mandate

• 10:10John Coogan?

  to curb inflation. That means higher interest rates. At a time when the labor market is shedding jobs, you would expect a Fed rate cut, or a lot of people are optimistic about a rate cut. Trump certainly wants rate cuts. But if inflation is climbing, there's really no solution other than keeping rates high or even raising them further. So a real jam in terms of federal monetary policy, Fed monetary policy. Here's Art Cashin at the opening bell. This is a historical video. When was this? This was a long time ago. Let's play this clip.

• 10:46Speaker 03

  This may be it. First, let me start out, "Muratorite Salute Thomas Essay", and you know that's the Gladiator salute. We who are about to die salute you. So it's gonna be a tough morning. This may be it.

• 10:59John Coogan?

  We who are about to die.

• 11:01Jordi Hays?

  Die, salute you.

• 11:03John Coogan?

  Insane, insane aura for, you know, CNBC really doesn't get enough credit for being so innovative in terms of broadcasting and entertainment. Really, some of the greatest clips.

• 11:14Jordi Hays?

  I love, one of the top comments, "This is an old clip."

• 11:17John Coogan?

  Yeah, obviously.

• 11:19Jordi Hays?

  Sleep, brother.

• 11:20John Coogan?

  40p, it's probably from the 90s. So Zero Hedge says, you know, "With oil at 111, total panic", and Memetic Sissavas shares a clip that says, "Half of this site for the last week has sounded like this. Let's see."

• 11:33Speaker 04

  Producers are telling me there is breaking news. The Asian financial markets have just opened to a huge sell-off, and we're gonna switch to that story right now. Good. I'm glad I'm here. Your thoughts, Tracy Jordan, on how this is gonna impact Wall Street? Larry, I'm not an expert, but I do have a strong opinion. New York as we know it will no longer exist tomorrow. Producers are telling me there is...

• 11:59John Coogan?

  Is that from 30 Rock? That's so good.

• 12:03John Coogan?

  That's so funny. "Oil came way in from its overnight highs", says Joe Weisenthal, and the quote post is, "Chris Paul..."

• 12:13Jordi Hays?

  Chris Paul hits a huge 3 to cut down the lead to 42.

• 12:17John Coogan?

  Absolutely, absolutely brutal. My essay this morning was titled, "Why Is No One Talking About Oil?". Of course, everyone is talking about oil. Oil discourse gushed onto the timeline this weekend, and crude prices spiked to nearly $120 a barrel as a broadening war in Iran threatens both transportation routes and production, the geopolitical... And economic analyses are flowing, but what does this mean for AGI timelines? And a lot of people in the AI world are sort of tuning all of this out because they see recursive self-improvement, AGI, ASI, the build-out as more important. And I just wanted to sort of reality check the AI supply chain to understand, how does oil actually affect data center construction, AI production, token pricing?

• 13:02John Coogan?

  Like, is there any effect? My conclusion was that it's very moderate, but there are some interesting effects in the financial markets that are probably the bigger takeaway. But it's still interesting to hear about, like, yes, oil actually is used in the production of AI, at least a little bit. Power has been at the forefront of the AI pushback. Like, everyone's worried about these local energy prices, these electricity prices increasing near the data centers. But pain at the pump might become a bigger story as gasoline prices spike. And that has been pain at the pump. Oh, it's been the most tangible sign of inflation. It moves so quickly. You know, one jitter in the economy.

• 13:40Jordi Hays?

  And it's a huge component. You know, people on the coast, people in tech, don't have a good sense for this, right? Gas, gas, for a lot of people, gas could quadruple.

• 13:50John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 13:50Jordi Hays?

  And it wouldn't, they wouldn't really notice it.

• 13:52John Coogan?

  No, no.

• 13:52Jordi Hays?

  But if you actually look into the average American, how gasoline fits into their budget.

• 13:57John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 13:57Jordi Hays?

  It's a meaningful component of their monthly budget. So they feel it super intensely.

• 14:02John Coogan?

  And.

• 14:02Jordi Hays?

  It's variable.

• 14:03John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 14:04Jordi Hays?

  Costs.

• 14:04John Coogan?

  There are so many different ways where a lot of Americans go on driving vacations. That obviously is directly impacted by gas prices. And then also just psychologically, there's something about filling up at the gas tank where you see the number ticking up and you're doing that on a every week basis or so. And it's just so visceral. It's this thing that you have to stop and then go experience and watch the money flow out of your account, like, in real time. It's very, it's very visual, it's very interactive.

• 14:32Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, I remember, I remember, I must have been probably 18 at this point, where I would just go and I would, like, for a long time, I just put, I'd like. You know, prepay for a certain amount of gas.

• 14:43John Coogan?

  I got 20 bucks.

• 14:44Jordi Hays?

  I got 20 bucks.

• 14:44John Coogan?

  Let's see how much I got.

• 14:45Jordi Hays?

  And I felt like really, like I felt like the king of the castle.

• 14:48John Coogan?

  Exactly.

• 14:48Jordi Hays?

  I just put my card down and let it run up.

• 14:50John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 14:51Jordi Hays?

  How far it go.

• 14:53John Coogan?

  But in AI circles, the discussion's been much more focused on RSI now is the new acronym that everyone's focusing on, not AGI. AGI is here, we know, artificial general intelligence. We passed the Turing test. But can they recursively self-improve? Are they RSI? Are we in RSI now? Is it a coming? Is this going to be a fast takeoff? Is this going to be a slow takeoff? Well, something's taken off. Dylan Patel said, being in SF is like being in Wuhan right before the pandemic. Something is happening. It's going to hit everywhere, but so few people know it. So he's sort of echoing that something big is happening.

• 15:27Jordi Hays?

  The irony is that George Hart's hitting the timeline to raise money.

• 15:32John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 15:33Jordi Hays?

  Makes me more bullish on acceleration.

• 15:36John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 15:36Jordi Hays?

  Right? Because if not, he's obviously not historically been a huge fan of venture, venture capitalist.

• 15:42John Coogan?

  Well, he's not raising from traditional VCs, he said. So he said, this is from Tiny Corp. If Tiny Corp was raising $20 million at $200 million valuation, who'd be interested? Business model is basically this. Buy an $11.5 million building with five megawatts of power. Link in our Discord. Wait for AMD to launch the RDNA 5 96 gigabyte cards mid 2027. Pre-order 3,000 cards. Hopefully, we can negotiate for $2,500 each. Build 520,000 tiny boxes with six of the cards in each box. Run all the Chinese LLMs. Make $600,000 per month revenue selling tokens on OpenRouter. Market depth is there.

• 16:26John Coogan?

  This is 1% of OpenRouter. Improvements to TinyGrad yield revenue improvements. Due to how power is priced in Oregon, it's only like $50,000 for the electric bill before the four megawatts, before they price for peak, not usage. We get like 3C kilowatt hour power, 3 cents per kilowatt hour. We can also make $100,000 per month leasing colocation space to comma. Building and cards paid off in three years max, investment made back, low risk of being undercut since we're using consumer GPUs and running the cheapest colo you can believe. If someone chill wants in, I do it. I'm not gonna fake hype. I'm not gonna hype fake tech,

• 17:07John Coogan?

  but demand for tokens is gonna skyrocket. Look at the open claw install numbers with crazy good optimizations. We could potentially get 3X more from the machines and we have electricity for 3X more machines, 5.4 revenue per month, then continue to scale from there, custom chips, etc. He's starting a NeoCloud. Are you starting a... Yeah, he's gonna be serving tokens. There is an immense amount of desire for this binary moment. This is the singular. This is AGI. This is ASI. The RSI is here. This thing is happening right now and there's before and after and everything has changed. And he just doesn't see it that way, I think. I think he sees it much more like the internet, the mobile phone, like other technologies that have been rolled out. Continuum.

• 17:50John Coogan?

  Electricity. Yes, there is like a before and after, but you can only really, you know, define the period by maybe a decade and you need a few decades to understand that moment. It's very hard to go back and, you know, there is like the iPhone moment and there is like, you know, the first launch of, I don't know, AOL. Like, I don't even know, I don't even know what the iPhone moment of the internet was, just because it was sort of a slow rollout. It's clear that the AI industry continues to grow and continues to need more and more power and compute, as we've seen from George Hotz's new project. That means large data center campuses, but if they're not in random office buildings that George is picking up on the cheap, they're probably going to be built with construction equipment. So what does this

• 18:33John Coogan?

  mean? They don't just drop from the heavens. They require building, which requires oil, but how much oil and is oil a serious, is a serious oil shock enough to impact the AI build out in a meaningful way? Spoiler alert, basically no. Live GPU clusters in the United States do not use much oil directly. Only 0.6% of US electricity in 2024 came from petroleum. We're much, much more dependent on natural gas, something like 42% of US electricity is natural gas. And so, America ramped up natural gas production significantly over the past two decades. A lot of that was in reaction to the wars in the Middle East. Hey, we need to be less dependent on on foreign oil. We need to be energy independent.

• 19:18John Coogan?

  And so you have the fracking boom, the natural gas boom. And that's where a lot of our fossil fuels come from today, I believe. Data centers only consume a single digit percent of US electricity. So you're looking at 0.6% of a few percent is like the actual impact. So the short term impact of high oil prices should be very limited on AI. When you're talking about building new capacity, building new data centers, oil is a little bit more involved. So diesel powers, trucks, trains, boats, barges, generators, pumps, compressors, excavators, and tons more construction equipment.

• 19:54John Coogan?

  Petroleum is also broadly used for plastics, polyurethane and solvents that all work their way into the data center supply chain. The biggest problem is delaying already tight schedules because of narrowly available components going out of stock. The price of oil goes up, there's one marginal factory that can't produce one ingredient that goes into the rack and that slows things down. You have to wait a week while you find another supplier. That that stuff can add up to just a little bit of a delay. This happened during COVID and the AI industry was already experiencing something similar with transformers. And so you don't want products getting stuck in transit or going out of stock. But the bigger problem and the one that people should be talking about, and I think you were debating with Dan Primack at Axios about this, is macroeconomic. So higher prices, higher oil prices lead to higher inflation.

• 20:38John Coogan?

  If the Fed has to raise rates to control inflation, capital formation for mega projects gets a lot harder. So JLL has this estimate. The next 100 gigawatts of data center capacity could require about $870 billion of new debt financing. And so using this rough number, every extra 50 basis points of borrowing cost on 870 billion is 4.35 billion in annual interest expense.

• 21:06Jordi Hays?

  Question right now is the hundreds of billions of dollars of sovereign AI projects in the Middle East, right? I think a lot of those, people are going to be like, eh, do we want to send, you know? Billions of dollars of GPUs.

• 21:19John Coogan?

  Over there, and then also the money coming here is another thing where you might want to spend it elsewhere. Have you been noticing that it's been hotter in Los Angeles?

• 21:27Jordi Hays?

  I have.

• 21:27John Coogan?

  Downtown Los Angeles is forecasted to approach 100 degrees Fahrenheit on Thursday and Friday.

• 21:33Jordi Hays?

  Which is why.

• 21:34John Coogan?

  Not good.

• 21:35Jordi Hays?

  We're gonna do the weather.

• 21:36John Coogan?

  We have a new segment.

• 21:37Jordi Hays?

  New segment for you today. We're doing the weather on TVPN. We have our very own Ben.

• 21:43John Coogan?

  We have Ben.

• 21:44Speaker 05

  Hello, guys. How are you?

• 21:45John Coogan?

  We're doing great. Tell us about the weather.

• 21:47Jordi Hays?

  What's happening?

• 21:48Speaker 05

  Well, I want to start off by saying, as you can see, the weather today for the low, low today is going to be 75 degrees Fahrenheit up there.

• 21:54John Coogan?

  Mm-hmm.

• 21:55Speaker 05

  High of 100 degrees Fahrenheit down there.

• 21:56John Coogan?

  Mm-hmm.

• 21:57Speaker 05

  But there's something I actually wanted to point out that I saw and I thought that was quite interesting. As you can see up here, there's a localized low pressure area up there and a localized high pressure area right down there, if you can see that right there.

• 22:06John Coogan?

  Does that mean rain?

• 22:07Speaker 05

  The issue with, that's not normally an issue and not a cause for concern, and it's not very common for this time of the year. However, today, later in the afternoon, these two areas are going to collide and they're going to hit each other.

• 22:16Jordi Hays?

  No.

• 22:16John Coogan?

  Really?

• 22:17Speaker 05

  And what that's going to cause is a barometric pressure inversion.

• 22:20John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 22:20Speaker 05

  It might sound a little bit scary, but I guarantee there's no cause for concern. All that means is that hot air rushing in from the west is going to collide with that cold air rushing in from the east, and it's going to cause a bunch of turbulence in the sky, moving all the airwaves around and oscillations in the sky. However, I want to add one more point. A byproduct of this effect is that all that humidity that dropped after that hot air moved to the bottom is going to raise up because the water, so you know evaporation and stuff. It's going to raise up into the sky, into those clouds, going to cause big clouds in the sky. And eventually, all that water is going to fall down onto the ground. We're going to have big rain later in the afternoon.

• 22:56John Coogan?

  Wait, it's actually going to rain in LA?

• 22:58Speaker 05

  Yeah, it might sound crazy, but I just want it for all you guys at home. I definitely tried to step outside with a jacket today, maybe a hoodie, just in case the rain comes.

• 23:05Jordi Hays?

  Whoa, narrative violation.

• 23:06John Coogan?

  I'm fact-checking you right now, and the weather app says it's going to be sunny all week. Is this just complete fake news?

• 23:13Speaker 05

  My team, those are the numbers my team gave me. I don't, I can't.

• 23:15John Coogan?

  This is complete fake news.

• 23:16Speaker 05

  No, no, no.

• 23:17John Coogan?

  This is the fakest news I've ever heard.

• 23:19Speaker 05

  No, no. All that cold, the transatlantic current.

• 23:21Jordi Hays?

  John, John, I'm, I don't trust your app. I trust the weather.

• 23:26John Coogan?

  Apple says it's not going to rain the entire month. There's zero chance of rain.

• 23:32Speaker 05

  Did you look at the transatlantic current?

• 23:33John Coogan?

  No.

• 23:34Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 23:34Speaker 05

  The transatlantic current.

• 23:35John Coogan?

  Precipitation, zero inches today, zero inches tomorrow, zero inches on Wednesday.

• 23:39Jordi Hays?

  John, you're really gonna, you're really gonna trust an app?

• 23:42John Coogan?

  I asked.

• 23:43Jordi Hays?

  You're really gonna trust an application?

• 23:44John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 23:45Jordi Hays?

  That was probably vibe coded yesterday over Ben, who's doing the weather.

• 23:49John Coogan?

  How did he get here? What happened here?

• 23:51Speaker 05

  Yeah, I got a, no. If you look right there, you can see a localized high pressure area. That's a localized high turbulence.

• 23:59John Coogan?

  Who's just looking for drama in the most boring weather market in America, which is Los Angeles.

• 24:04Jordi Hays?

  I think, I think this is the most important story in the world.

• 24:09John Coogan?

  This is ridiculous.

• 24:09Speaker 05

  You guys can look at the jet streams. They're coming in from the west.

• 24:12John Coogan?

  I don't want to hear any more mumbo jumbo about jet streams. Get out of here. You're done.

• 24:16Jordi Hays?

  Great work, Ben.

• 24:17John Coogan?

  Thank you, Ben.

• 24:18Jordi Hays?

  This is the future of the weather. We have a weatherman who gets into a live altercation with one of the other hosts. We need to talk about the wealth of Sundar Pitch AI.

• 24:28John Coogan?

  Pitch AI.

• 24:29Jordi Hays?

  His new pay deal worth up to 692 million.

• 24:35John Coogan?

  Is this like 10 times what Tim Cook's making? No, it must be over, over time, right?

• 24:40Jordi Hays?

  Cook's making around 70 a year.

• 24:43John Coogan?

  70 a year.

• 24:43Jordi Hays?

  Combined.

• 24:44John Coogan?

  So if he works for 10 years, he makes what Sundar makes in three? We've been advocating for this, so this is good. Yeah, no, no, we're, we're, we're in support, but.

• 24:51Jordi Hays?

  Google has increased Sundar's potential pay to 692 million over the next three years.

• 24:55John Coogan?

  You know that Tim Cook dropped this in the Apple board members group chat as soon as it hit. He was just like, dude, this is, this is a cool article. You should read this.

• 25:03Jordi Hays?

  Drops it in thoughts, question mark?

• 25:05John Coogan?

  Yeah, exactly.

• 25:07Jordi Hays?

  The bulk of his package comes in performance units with a target value of 126 million, split evenly into two branches. It could pay out as much as twice the target, a quarter billion if it outperforms significantly, or nothing if it lags behind.

• 25:20John Coogan?

  Got to beat the S and P 100.

• 25:23Jordi Hays?

  Pichai will receive Waymo's stock with a target, stock in Waymo with a target value of 130 million and 45 million in Wing Aviation. That's their, their drone

• 25:33John Coogan?

  Yeah, drone delivery platform.

• 25:34Jordi Hays?

  Platform. Again, both can pay out up to 200% of the target.

• 25:40John Coogan?

  If he delivers and the, and the company does well, he should, he should be richly rewarded. Stick a fork in it. Turn out the lights. Hasta la vista. Say it any way you'd like. The simple truth is the Mag7 trade is over. Finito. I love Barron's writing. Dead. The collective stock market outperformance of those seven tech icons, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Apple, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, Microsoft and Tesla is now a thing of the past. The group may still do okay and some of the individual stocks may even kill it, but the slam dunk, set it and forget it, run circles around the market era of the Mag7 is gone with the wind. The actual argument was the growth to value narrative, the loss of cash flow as

• 26:22John Coogan?

  they increasingly invest in CapEx. The, the financials will look very different. There'll be a margin compression, that type of thing. It's not an unreasonable take, but it is, it's just funny the, the way it's written. Sundar Pichai took over as CEO in August of 2015. He's going on 11 years in the seat. Google's market cap has increased almost sevenfold from half a trillion to 3.6 trillion, briefly topping 4 trillion in January. This surge has made the Indian-born 53-year-old former McKinsey consultant a billionaire. He joined in 2004 and made his name developing the Chrome browser and leading the Android division. He had been criticized for being too slow to adopt AI at the search giant, allowing OpenAI to release the first hit

• 27:05John Coogan?

  product, ChatGPT, in late 2022, but has since bounced back, releasing cutting-edge AI models and integrating the technology into its dominant search engine. Yes, he's done very, very well on that front. Pichai has also navigated a duo of antitrust cases brought against Google's search and app store businesses, avoiding the worst-case scenario of forced breakup. A third lawsuit is pending against the advertising network. Pichai got last got a stock award in December of 2022 worth 218 million, which was structured in the same way. His earnings are topped up by his personal security costs, which rose to 8.3 million in 2024. Earlier in the week, he sold 32,500 Class C shares, an average price of $303, worth roughly $10 million.

• 27:49John Coogan?

  The Bloomberg Billionaires Index estimates that he has sold about $650 million in stock since becoming CEO. They still own, along with his wife, he owns 1.67 million shares of Google, worth half a billion at the latest stock price. And Google's founders, Sergey Brin and Larry Page, still control the company through their ownership of super voting Class B stock, which gives them 56% of decision-making power. Interesting. I think you gotta give Miami.

• 28:20Jordi Hays?

  Paperhands?

• 28:21John Coogan?

  Oh.

• 28:22Jordi Hays?

  He sold 650 million of stock?

• 28:25John Coogan?

  No, no, no. He sold that, but he's, oh, and he only owns half a billion. So, yeah, he sold more than half.

• 28:32Jordi Hays?

  I'm just saying, hopefully he put it all into video.

• 28:34John Coogan?

  Paperhands Pichai. Paperhands Pichai. But he's getting topped up and he's diamond handings the new, he's diamond handing the new brand.

• 28:41Jordi Hays?

  I know, I'm just saying, I'm just saying, looking at the stock chart since 2015, when he became CEO, would have done pretty well just to not do anything and trust, trust his own process.

• 28:50John Coogan?

  Hey.

• 28:51Jordi Hays?

  Owner of Four Loko is exploring a sale of a storied alcohol brand. Sources say the parent company of Four Loko, the canned alcoholic beverage that became a college campus sensation in the late 2000s before being reformulated under regulatory pressure, is exploring. I cannot believe they nerfed Four Loko. You can just imagine the trajectory of the United States if it hadn't been nerfed and then.

• 29:15John Coogan?

  Straight downward.

• 29:16Jordi Hays?

  Really?

• 29:17John Coogan?

  Yes. It was so bad. It was so, the impact.

• 29:20Jordi Hays?

  I thought people were having like heart attacks.

• 29:21John Coogan?

  Yes, it was terrible.

• 29:22Jordi Hays?

  Oh, really?

• 29:23John Coogan?

  So Four Loko was. A 24 ounce can, so twice the size of a normal alcoholic beverage.

• 29:28Jordi Hays?

  Trey, the birthday boy, says it was amazing.

• 29:30John Coogan?

  It was amazing, okay. The original formulation was twice as big as a normal can of Bud Light, or Miller Lite, or Coors Lite, your normal beer, something that you would grab. And then instead of it being 3.2% alcohol, or 4.5% alcohol, it was like 10% alcohol. It was the strength of like wine, almost. And so, a single Four Loko was like four or five beers in one can. And then they also added like 200mg of caffeine. You would become incredibly intoxicated and inebriated, but then also incredibly stimulated from all the caffeine. And that spelled doom for many people. People would be very high functioning, but completely inebriated and discombobulated.

• 30:13John Coogan?

  And so, they would, you know, get into all sorts of trouble.

• 30:17Jordi Hays?

  A discombobulator.

• 30:18John Coogan?

  It was the, it was the discombobulator. It was also wildly illegal from an FDA perspective. You can't mix alcohol and caffeine in a single product. That's just a rule.

• 30:28Jordi Hays?

  They're looking to, and potentially will capture somewhere around 400 million on the sale.

• 30:36John Coogan?

  The brand value. So, people, it's hilarious that they're working with JP Morgan on this. That's wild.

• 30:41Jordi Hays?

  Here's what the CMO had to say. For over a decade, our sales have been the leading, have been leading the flavored malted beverage market by embracing bold innovation, unconventional marketing, and a risk-taking attitude that delivers results year after year. I think that's a good place to call it.

• 30:57John Coogan?

  Thank you.

• 30:58Jordi Hays?

  Thank you.

• 30:58John Coogan?

  Goodbye.

• 30:59Jordi Hays?

  Cheers.