
Written by a model from the transcript; not yet reviewed.
This episode covers the intersection of volatile commodity markets and the rapid expansion of online sports betting. The host discusses ongoing uncertainties in global oil supply, specifically focusing on the Strait of Hormuz, US-Iran tensions, and surging diesel prices with a commodity research director. Later, a policy expert breaks down new reporting on DraftKings utilizing machine learning models to target vulnerable gamblers, the massive shift in sports betting revenues, and regulatory headwinds facing prediction markets.
Hosts introduce the show and list multiple sponsors before transitioning to the main topic.
Ed reviews recent market movements, noting Brent crude’s volatility and the impact of geopolitical events.
The hosts discuss President Trump’s remarks at the UN and their implications for U.S.-Iran relations and oil prices.
Matt Smith explains how Saudi and Iranian actions shape oil supply and price risk premiums.
The conversation turns to how Strait of Hormuz risks feed into diesel prices and broader inflation.
JPMorgan Abandons Oil Forecastsinsight
JPMorgan commodities team officially abandoned its baseline oil forecast, stating they do not know how to model the end game.
Global Diesel Export Shut Downsdata
Russia, the Middle East, and potentially the US face export restrictions, which could remove 40% of global diesel exports from the market.
Markets Fix Themselves Through Priceinsight
Economics eventually drive everything, raising prices to the point where demand is killed when supplies are bottlenecked.
DraftKings Elasticity Scoring Modelstory
DraftKings built a machine learning model to score customer elasticity and target high-loss players with promotions.
Concentrated Sports Betting Revenuedata
The vast majority of sports betting revenue is concentrated among a tiny fraction of heavy gamblers.
Economic Harms of Legal Bettingdata
Data shows a 10% increase in personal bankruptcies and higher auto loan delinquencies following the legalization of online sports betting.
Sydney Sweeney Betting Ad Analysisinsight
An ad featuring Sydney Sweeney is analyzed as a masterclass in targeting young men struggling in the modern economy.
“We simply don't know how to model the end game”
“10% increase in personal bankruptcies, a 6% to 8% increase in auto loan delinquencies, increase in child maltreatment cases, increases in food insecurity”
“The number one driver is availability, right? Since the 2018 Supreme Court decision, 39 states in Washington DC have legalized sports betting in some form, 32 of them providing it online.”
Ed Elson is joined by Matt Smith to break down how Trump’s latest threats are driving oil prices and where he thinks they’re headed next. Then, Jonathan Cohen returns to discuss the state of the sports betting market and what the regulatory landscape could look like going forward. Finally, Ed explains why he thinks the AI debate is the dumbest conversation of the year. Matt Smith is the Director of Commodity Research at Kpler. Jonathan Cohen is the Policy Lead at the Institute for Boys and Men and author of Losing Big: America’s Reckless Bet on Sports Gambling. Subscribe to the Prof G Markets Youtube Channel Follow Prof G Markets on Instagram Follow Ed on Instagram, X and Substack Follow Scott on Instagram Send us your questions or comments by emailing [email protected] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
5,905 words · 8 speakers
Speaker names marked are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.
Page updated · transcript and summary are machine-generated