The Knicks Stay Alive With Rob Mahoney and Joe House, Plus NFL Offseason Intrigue Rankings With Albert Breer

Bill Simmons is joined by Joe House and Rob Mahoney to react to the Knicks winning Game 5 in New York to push their ECF series against the Pacers to Game 6 (2:30). Then, they discuss OKC eliminating the Timberwolves in the WCF, what an OKC-Pacers Finals would look like, and SGA’s scoring ability (44:35). Finally, Albert Breer joins to talk about NFL offseason subplots (01:07:36). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Joe House, Rob Mahoney, and Albert Breer Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo Get anything delivered on Uber Eats. www.ubereats.com The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit⁠ www.rg-help.com⁠ to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Bill Simmons?

  It's the Bill Simmons Podcast. We are part of the Ringer Podcast Network where you can find the rewatchables, a great podcast. We did Heaven Can Wait. We wrapped up Big Ass 70s Month on Monday. You can find that podcast on the Ringer Movies YouTube channel. You can also find it as a video podcast on Spotify. We already have next week's movie that we're doing. We, we need to call a brand on it. Hadn't been on in two months and we needed to do an action movie. Naturally, it led us to the Steven Seagal movie that we haven't done yet, that we have to do, Out for Justice, the most important Steven Seagal movie in the catalog. That will be coming Monday. There will be some laughs. So you have the

• 0:41Bill Simmons?

  whole weekend to, to watch it. FanDuel, we did Taylor Fade this week and it actually hit. Jalen Brunson over 30 and a half. So you can check out, they have same game parlay stuff for this weekend that you can check out on FanDuel Sportsbook. So coming up, I went live after game five Pacers Knicks with Rob Mahoney and Joe House and then brought in Albert Breer to talk about all the NFL stuff that's happened over the last month since the draft, things you might've missed if your head was buried in the NBA playoffs. So that's all next. We'll take a break. We'll bring in Pearl Jam and then Joe House and Rob Mahoney all next. You're listening and watching the Bill Simmons Podcast presented by FanDuel, our

• 1:26Bill Simmons?

  friends, America's number one sportsbook, and they've made it easier than ever to get in on the action during an NBA playoff game, even after tipoff. Just look for the live SGP tab on the FanDuel Sportsbook app and build your own bet slip, then sit back, relax, track the outcome of your parlay right in the app. And if you don't already have it, download the FanDuel app today to make every moment more. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available and listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com.

• 2:30Bill Simmons?

  All right. Starting the BS podcast here with Rob Mahoney. And Joe House, are we sober, House? Are we buzzed? Where are we?

• 2:40Speaker 01

  Late night, House.

• 2:41Bill Simmons?

  Late night, House.

• 2:42Speaker 01

  See what the cards give us.

• 2:44Bill Simmons?

  Groggy, like a little letting it loose, House. Unlike Andrew Nemhard today. We're doing this live on YouTube. I thought this was going to be an awesome game today and New York had other ideas. A couple of the Pacers had other ideas. Did New York figure anything out today, Mahoney? Or did Indiana just suck?

• 3:03Speaker 02

  I think they figured out how to play defense like they had something to lose. You know, I think there, there's games where the Knicks defensive problems are personnel based, are schematic. That's been the case in this series to some extent. In this game, I didn't think they changed a ton. They changed some. Mostly they just played with actual intensity, especially on the perimeter to the point that it did feel like the Pacers kind of forgot for a while that they were allowed to move into the direction of the basket. Like it was all side to side. It was all handoffs up top. Once they, you know, Ben Matherin came in and decided to cut and they decided to drive a little more, the game changed a bit. But I thought the Knicks perimeter defense pressured them out of a lot of their stuff and they, they deserve a lot of credit for that.

• 3:42Bill Simmons?

  What'd you think, House?

• 3:43Speaker 01

  Um, the Knicks did the thing that's most important in basketball, which is make the shots. They started off by, by the making of the shots in the first quarter and that had the effect of keeping the Pacers from running. So we had two quarters from the Pacers where they scored less than 25 points. They scored 45 points in the whole first half. 23 points first quarter, 22 points second quarter, because the Knicks did the making of the baskets, Bill Simmons.

• 4:11Bill Simmons?

  And Indiana stunk.

• 4:14Speaker 02

  Not a good game for them.

• 4:16Bill Simmons?

  It's pretty tough when Ben Matherin saves you from having like a 75 point game, which is where we're headed.

• 4:22Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 4:23Bill Simmons?

  And, and the stats reflect how bad it was, but it was even worse watching it. Neesmith was one for eight. He only played 15 minutes, by the way.

• 4:32Speaker 02

  They seemed like they were limiting him with, with that ankle probably. And that, I mean, Jalen Brunson feasts every minute that Neesmith isn't on the floor.

• 4:40Bill Simmons?

  And once they kind of realized, maybe the game was a little behind them, they started a little more careful. Nemhard was three for eight. It felt worse. Three turnovers. Turner.

• 4:52Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 4:53Bill Simmons?

  24 minutes, five points, four turnovers and a couple of like really just awkward offensive moments. 25 feet from the basket where he's like trying to dribble against Mitchell Robinson. Like there was one time he just kind of fell out of bounds. It was like, I thought the biggest thing the Knicks did today, other than pressure Haliburton and just make it more difficult for him on defense was, uh, they felt like they were attacking Miles Turner, Rob.

• 5:17Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 5:18Bill Simmons?

  Like, oh, you're going to have the bomb coming at you.

• 5:20Speaker 02

  Completely. And he's been beating up on their smaller defenders all series against mismatches. And they were swiping really well to kind of dislodge him. They were fighting for position much more effectively. You mentioned like on the perimeter, there's times, there's times where Miles Turner looks like a, a great athlete. And then there's times where it looks like one of his legs is like a dramatically different length than the other. And he can't quite move in any kind of like fluid manner. They brought that side out of him to the point that like Mitchell Robinson at some points was pressuring Miles Turner up to half court. Like they just wouldn't let him move at all, much less get into that little handoff game.

• 5:53Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it's weird. The Miles Turner free agency tape is going to have to be a carefully edited 20 minute highlight tape house. But I think the 20 minute highlight tape will be excellent.

• 6:03Speaker 01

  It can't have anything to do with Karl Anthony Towns. I mean, I think Cat has, has found the, the opposing center that he's most comfortable with in the entire NBA. And it's a version of Cat, you know, that man going to the rim with, with ferocity, relentless ferocity. And his, you know, making himself into a true. New York Nick, you could see the crowd get super fired up every time he went to the, to the rack and bang Turner out of the way and, and you know, got his and, and really he and Brunson set the tone in, in the first quarter with that intensity that they brought and they controlled the flow of the game in the first quarter. And it was weird that the Pacers didn't really have

• 6:48Speaker 01

  a, a, any kind of retaliation. I mean, the closest we got was that 10 points with four minutes left in the third quarter.

• 6:54Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 6:55Speaker 01

  And then they kind of got there again in the fourth quarter, but really, uh, they just never got there, Mahoney.

• 7:01Speaker 02

  Yeah. But to that point with Cat, it was really telling that this series for him has become not really a post-up series, not really a three-point shooting series. It is drive past Myles Turner, drive past Pascal Siakam. Pacers have nobody who can stay in front of him so long as Cat can stay out of foul trouble. And granted, you know, he had about three or four dumb fouls in this game. I think he easily could have been called for five or six, uh, you know, shove here or there that just didn't get whistled. And maybe this game is very, very different, but he definitely showed up. Brunson definitely showed up. Like those guys had to deliver and the depth also did like, honestly, just might be the best Landry Shamet playoff run we've ever seen from him.

• 7:39Speaker 01

  Has there been a Landry Shamet playoff run?

• 7:41Speaker 02

  This is the thing. He tends to be, he tends to be the guy who comes into the playoffs and just immediately disappears. Like way too small, gets boxed out of series, too streaky a shooter to really make a difference. This guy was like freezing TJ McConnell in the lane, like kill dribble on the baseline, completely stalling out the, the Pacers offense. I, the pressure that Shamet and Delon, and Delon Wright have brought to the series, I think has been like a really meaningful thing, which is crazy to say.

• 8:05Speaker 01

  McConnell was another one who sucked tonight. Um, the, really everybody in the Pacers, you look through Matheran has 23 points and they scored 94 as a team. That's pretty rough. Um, the Towns piece of it, I still feel like anytime a team isn't just completely attacking him on defense house, especially once he gets to four fouls. I would just go at him every play because I just feel like law of averages. He's just going to foul somebody. It was funny to hear Van Gundy, uh, on this three man team we had tonight.

• 8:39Bill Simmons?

  And we've had all through the playoffs.

• 8:40Speaker 01

  Your favorite.

• 8:41Bill Simmons?

  Conferences. Just poor Kevin Harlan. His usage rate is all time low. He's basically like McHale Bridges in those games when he has six shots in 48 minutes. But it was funny to hear Van Gundy just openly saying like, they shouldn't put Towns back in. He's just crazy enough to get a foul here. Cause I thought the same thing. 0.6 seconds left. It's like just enough time for him to foul somebody on a pick. But for the most part, I think this series has been a win for him. How's?

• 9:09Speaker 01

  An enormous win, an all time win. I mean, in the same way that we were observing Julius Randall, you know, kind of of a rebranding for himself by the excellent performance he had for the Timberwolves in the West.

• 9:23Bill Simmons?

  Until recently.

• 9:24Speaker 01

  I know, but look, for the most part, like who saw that coming, right? And you had to do some, some research. You had to go back into your, uh, you know, basketball reference, Bill Simmons database to compare him to some greats.

• 9:36Bill Simmons?

  19 and nine. Yeah. Him and Elgin Baylor, him and the greats.

• 9:38Speaker 01

  You had to do that. He made you do that. Julius Randall made you do that, but.

• 9:43Bill Simmons?

  But now he's gonna make Charlotte give him a weird free agent offer and that's gonna be the only one he gets. Anyway.

• 9:48Speaker 01

  Undoubtedly true, but Towns, uh, also, this is like a version of Towns that I don't think anybody could say, we've seen this from Karl Anthony Towns in the playoffs. Like this is the Eastern Conference Finals for Christ sakes. It's very impressive to me.

• 10:01Bill Simmons?

  I like how hard he's playing. That's a big thing for me is like, whatever the stats are gonna come and go, shots are gonna come and go, but he really seems like he fully gives a shit, which I think is, uh, and if I, I felt that way last year with him too, in the, uh, Western Finals too. So we've at least gotten over that hump with him.

• 10:16Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 10:17Bill Simmons?

  Mahoney.

• 10:17Speaker 02

  I think he's had great responses, right? It's like, he's been embarrassed a couple of times in this series, especially defensively, like we were just talking about, played off the floor in fourth quarters, taken out of the rotation for critical stretches, like Mitchell Robinson, kind of taking his spot a couple of times. And then you get a huge response in crunch time. Then you get this response to the Indiana win. I, I don't know that you can ask a lot more of Towns than this. He's on a bad knee right now and he's still driving all that much. He's still hold, like relatively holding up defensively. Again, give or take all the fouls and credit to him too, gets to kind of punch it through with that final possession before the Pacers took everybody out. It was like a. Indiana couldn't pull down a defensive rebound. Josh Hart gets it rerouted to Towns, pump fake, drive, finish over Matherin, shrug off everybody.

• 11:02Speaker 02

  We're going home. Like, he deserves that kind of moment with the series he's had.

• 11:06Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, and the Knicks were like dying to let the Pacers back in the game in the third quarter and the Pacers weren't. But there was like a six minute stretch where it just felt like the ball was flying around off everybody. It's funny, you mentioned that Towns playing with a bad knee. Not sure how bad the knee was because it felt like he was doing a lot of stuff out there.

• 11:25Speaker 02

  That's true.

• 11:26Bill Simmons?

  I had the hockey game on the smaller TVs. I was watching the basketball and I was just thinking how funny it is. You're on the, you're at the playoff basketball game like Carl Towns, cutting it out with a sore knee. And then you go to the hockey game and guys like they have just divots in the side of their heads. They're playing with just broken hands or broken orbital bones. It's just, it's just funny how different the sports are.

• 11:49Speaker 01

  And classic tips. I mean, with, with his, with, with the knee, he had the most minutes of any Nick on the floor. 36 minutes and he got the most attempts up, 20 attempts. So, you know.

• 12:01Speaker 02

  Taking offense to it.

• 12:02Speaker 01

  What a warrior.

• 12:04Bill Simmons?

  I thought it affected his shot a little bit was the one thing I noticed it, but the barreling to the basket thing. And I kind of feel like the, the knee piece didn't matter, but.

• 12:12Speaker 02

  Maybe so.

• 12:12Bill Simmons?

  I don't know. I've changed my opinion on that trade 100 times since they made it, but now I think Knicks won the trade. That's where I've landed today after, after watching Julius Randall a couple of times against OKC. Big win for the Knicks. This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats. It's football season. Uber Eats is delivering deals every game day. This week, get 10 free boneless wings from Wingstop on qualifying orders. Game on, flavor on, Wingstop is here. So if your fantasy league is coming over for some in-person smack talk, order Wingstop on Uber Eats and get 10 boneless wings free. It's the perfect way to keep everyone fed tonight so you can focus on the game. No matter who scores big tonight, you'll score a great deal. Order now and get 10 boneless wings free from Wingstop only on Uber Eats.

• 12:56Bill Simmons?

  Offer valid from September 14th to September 27th and from November 2nd to November 16th. Order minimum before taxes and fees is required. See retailer's storefront for details. Taxes, fees and terms apply. Product availability varies by region. Exclusions may apply. See app for details.

• 13:15Speaker 01

  Can I ask you a question? I, I've already taken a shot at Tibbs, but I think he coached a great game. I honestly think that, that him getting four guys on the bench, double-digit minutes at this stage of, of the playoffs. I mean, we are, we, we keep exclaiming out loud, we're, we're shocked by this Shamet revelation, but really Delon Wright and Shamet and McBride, and I think the move of Hart to the bench, you, you still getting the 34 minutes out of him.

• 13:44Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 13:45Speaker 01

  Got to tip our hat to Tibbs here a little bit, Mahoney.

• 13:47Speaker 02

  Completely. I like, maybe he should have been here all along. Maybe they should have been playing this way. You know, they, they brought in Delon Wright and Landon Shamet a little later in the season, but once they did, maybe those guys should have been in the rotation. That's fine. We can, we can talk about that. I'm here to encourage positive growth. This is Tom Thibodeau and we're, we're meeting him where he is, which is in a moment of desperation, started turning to these guys and really found something with it. Like, I don't even think it's just a minutes thing in terms of keeping the starters minutes down. I think having those guys in for meaningful runs, where the Knicks are winning on defense, where they're creating all this energy, where they have the momentum. To me, that's taking a lot of pressure off of OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, too. You really don't even dwell or notice on the fact that like, those guys can't hit threes

• 14:31Speaker 02

  right now, aren't really hitting a lot of shots, because the Knicks are winning with this defensive energy.

• 14:36Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that's a good point. Their bench, I guess Hart, eh?

• 14:42Bill Simmons?

  Two for, two for eight from three. And the Knicks, the Pacers seem super happy to give them as many as you want. It's a weird thing for me. I agree that Tibbs coached a good game tonight. I also think it was reprehensible that he didn't ever try to figure out how to use his bench during the season. I remember doing a podcast after that Knicks out the game in Boston in like February, where he's just playing the, goes guys huge minutes in this game that ultimately they're really going to be the three seed or the four seed. It's like, what are you doing? And I think the Knicks fans in my life. They're they're just apoplectic that it took until this series, losing game one, to then now experiment with all these different lineups and and lineups that really haven't played

• 15:25Bill Simmons?

  together all season. But in a way, better late than never, I guess, because it's definitely helped them. I don't know. We've we've seen Shamit for a few seasons here. I I refuse to believe he's like a late bloomer as a playoff asset.

• 15:40Speaker 02

  And yeah.

• 15:40Bill Simmons?

  There's been a bunch of teams that have given up on Shamit.

• 15:43Speaker 02

  Totally.

• 15:44Bill Simmons?

  The record.

• 15:44Speaker 02

  But he's out there. And again, like these lineups are lineups that I would never choose to put on the floor in a must win playoff game, right? Like lineups that should not work, that should not make sense. But I think it speaks to the fact that like New York's needs right now are less for explosive offense and more for where are they getting that defensive intensity? Who are the guys who are really going to pressure, who are really going to play up? And right? And Shamit have both done that. McBride always does that. And playing those three guys together shouldn't be a thing, but it's a thing. And it's working in the series.

• 16:14Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. And make Indiana turn the ball over and make Halliburton not as comfortable, which they've managed to. Indiana had 20 turnovers tonight. The Knicks were rebound, out rebounding them by 10 for most of the game, and that evened out a little bit. But I guess from the Knicks side, they were 28% from three and they won handily. Good sign for them. From the Pacers side, they had 20 turnovers and it felt, still felt like they were going to make a run, even with like five minutes left with no, literally nobody playing well except Matherin. I was like, I still feel like they might get going here. It was a bad Halliburton game.

• 16:48Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 16:50Bill Simmons?

  You know, a lot of smoke, including on this podcast and all the Ringer podcasts, about the big leap he was taking and how great he was playing. And it just felt like he was flustered from the get go with all the pressure. My guess is that he'll be fine in game six.

• 17:05Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean.

• 17:06Bill Simmons?

  And that this is one of those, I looked at the tape, I can't believe how bad I was. I'm going to do this, this, this, and this. And it will be a different Halliburton, would be my guess.

• 17:14Speaker 02

  He was the making the big leap and then he took the big shit. And that happens sometimes. I mean, we saw SGA, the MVP of the league in what was it, game three, you know, lay a big fat egg. It happens. The good players.

• 17:25Bill Simmons?

  When you start talking about like, top 20 guys, top 15 guys, top 10 guys, once we go higher up the list, what what separates the top five, top seven guys, like you noticed that one SGA game when he wasn't very good in game three. But for the most part, every single playoff game, he's been between 30 and 38 a game.

• 17:44Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 17:44Bill Simmons?

  And consistently scoring and consistently getting his shot. And you just always know you can count on him, you know? And when you go through all the best guys in the league, that's usually in place, which is why even with somebody like Edwards, people are so disappointed that, oh, what happened to him in second half of game four? And why did he seem so comfortable? Because there's, he's being held to a certain standard. I feel like Halliburton had at least, was knocking on the door of that level. So for him to suck tonight is just like, that's not great. And now he's gonna take it tomorrow on the shows. There's gonna be a lot of, they need Tyrese Halliburton to step up. He's gonna be the step up guy tomorrow.

• 18:22Speaker 02

  Who was that?

• 18:23Bill Simmons?

  Who was the step up guy heading in?

• 18:25Speaker 02

  No, who was the voice you just did?

• 18:26Bill Simmons?

  That was my generic ESPN voice. It was all the collage of the voices.

• 18:31Speaker 02

  All, every one, every voice.

• 18:32Bill Simmons?

  I want them to have a segment called Step Up, where they just, each of them just screams at the TV that somebody needs to step up. And then at the end of the segment, they all just look at each other and they tell each other to step up.

• 18:43Speaker 02

  Why are you stepping on our content? This could easily be a Ringer, hottest take style podcast. 10 minute segment, anyone in the world, you know, like any world leaders.

• 18:53Bill Simmons?

  Who needs to step up?

• 18:54Speaker 02

  The new pope, anybody, like it could be.

• 18:56Bill Simmons?

  Democrats need to step up.

• 18:58Speaker 02

  Well, perpetually.

• 18:59Bill Simmons?

  Well, they definitely, I actually do need to step up. But. Tyrese Halliburton. Plus his main screen needs to step up because I can't find Mission Impossible.

• 19:10Speaker 02

  Whoever's doing the UI on those things definitely needs to step up. It's, it's a disgrace.

• 19:14Bill Simmons?

  Well, anyway, I think Tyrese, but long story short, Tyrese Halliburton might need to step up.

• 19:18Speaker 02

  Yes. There's a version of a Tyrese Halliburton game where he shoots seven times and is still awesome. He's done that before plenty of times. This was not that. I think it was, it was distressing how little he was even looking at the rim. And the times where even he would turn the corner on the Knicks defense. And it's just like, he's, it looks like he's waiting for the breakdown to make the easy pass for the layup that frankly has like been there for the last three games or so. But if you're that guy, if you're a top 20 guy, you are the breakdown. Like that, that's your job to create that and to capitalize on it. And the fact that he wasn't really looking to score for, I would say at least two, maybe two and a half quarters, it just wasn't enough for where the Pacers were.

• 19:57Bill Simmons?

  House, do you think it's because Michael Imperiali was there? You think he was psyched out? It's one thing to play in front of Chalamet, Spike Lee, some of the stars, but. When Christopher's in the house, I don't know. It's a different level.

• 20:08Speaker 01

  Anything is possible. You don't want Christopher going to the trunk. That's for sure.

• 20:13Bill Simmons?

  I mean, it's Paul, Paulie's dead, right? Paulie Walnuts is dead.

• 20:16Speaker 01

  I believe so.

• 20:18Bill Simmons?

  That would have been the next move is to put courtside, just all the Sopranos characters, the living ones, just all in a row. But some of the key ones are dead, but I still think that would be a little intimidating. Maybe you get all the mafia movies.

• 20:31Speaker 02

  Can we pour one out from Miles Teller, though, who was next to Timothy Chalamet? Couldn't even get the broadcast shout out like he was just the normal guy sitting to the side of Timothy Chalamet. That's Miles Teller.

• 20:41Bill Simmons?

  Tough beat. He's in Top Gun Maverick, for God's sakes. He's in Whiplash. He's been in some big movies. He was just in a movie that led Apple TV. He should have at least gotten a Chyron.

• 20:51Speaker 02

  That's what I'm saying. He's at Chyron level at bare minimum.

• 20:55Bill Simmons?

  I agree with that. Uh, my son was admiring Chalamet's fit. He likes the Chrome heart Knicks pants. We thought, uh, it was a great job. He thinks, he thinks Chalamet's done a great job with the, uh, with the, with the fits during the games. I don't, I'm not going to bring him in later for a fit, fit thing. Brunson, six for nine in the first quarter, laid the smackdown. I had in the Taylor fade, my, my weekly prop, I did over 30 and a half. Cause I thought Brunson was going to have a big game. I think he finished with like 34. But one of the reasons I thought that was because I didn't think Towns was going to be good in this game. So whatever they got from Towns, I wasn't expecting. I'm not positive. The Pacers were expecting either, but, um, this Brunson thing, his eyes just light up when Nemhards, you mentioned it before, Rob.

• 21:41Bill Simmons?

  It's like the Nemhard Pacers and then the non Nemhard. When he sees Halliburton, it's, he looks like House passing an Arby's.

• 21:47Speaker 01

  Hey, hey.

• 21:49Bill Simmons?

  No, that's a compliment, House.

• 21:51Speaker 01

  I know. I'm not, that was an excited, hey.

• 21:54Speaker 02

  There's a stomach growl.

• 21:55Speaker 01

  It was.

• 21:56Bill Simmons?

  I met somebody else who loved Arby's and I always bring you up when somebody else likes Arby's.

• 22:03Bill Simmons?

  Because you're my number one person that loves Arby's.

• 22:05Speaker 01

  We should.

• 22:06Bill Simmons?

  No, I, I just feel like it's almost like House is a part owner in Arby's, even though he owns nothing, but.

• 22:11Speaker 01

  I've invested enough, believe me.

• 22:15Speaker 01

  Believe me.

• 22:16Bill Simmons?

  Thank God for Arby's. Anyway, Jalen Brunson, Rob, go.

• 22:21Speaker 02

  I'm not gonna come back from Arby's. No, he, look, there really is only one Pacer who can guard him in this series. He's currently kind of injured, clearly, at least being held back to some degree. I thought it was a sign of, you know, it was representative representative of Indy's desperation. That Ben Matheran was not only like the only guy who could score, but the only guy they would even trust to guard Jalen Brunson during critical stretches of the second half. Like they, they gave him that job too. Because then, like Shepard can't do it. Nemhard cannot do it. Those guys have no impact, honestly, on Jalen Brunson. And they're good defenders who fight through screens and like can be very effective against any other kind of scorer. But for some reason, Jalen Brunson can just kind of bump them off. He can shoot right over the top of Nemhard. They don't bother him at all.

• 23:06Speaker 02

  And so if we are watching which injuries are real and which ones are exaggerated. Karl Anthony Towns, you know, clearly good enough to drive and still be a dominant player in this game. Aaron Neesmith has to be a fully operational member of the Pacers rotation. If they're gonna slow down Jalen Brunson at all.

• 23:21Bill Simmons?

  Well, the recipe for the Knicks to come back from 3-1 house. If you're doing the 2004 Red Sox, don't let us get one, don't let us get two, whatever Kevin Malar said. It's easier to do it when you have five and seven at home. You win five, you have to go on the road and take six. But when the Celtics tried to do this last round, no Jason Tatum, zombie Porzingis, Sam Hauser and a sprained ankle, and the Knicks played the best game they've had and were completely healthy. This, uh, this Pacer situation, Neesmith not healthy, Turner and Nemhard coming off terrible games. Pacers bench not doing that well, Halber coming off a bad game. And weirdly, some pressure for a team up 3-2.

• 24:08Bill Simmons?

  What do you think the line is for the series now, House? Don't look.

• 24:13Speaker 01

  Oh, this is a great question.

• 24:15Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 24:16Speaker 01

  The Pacers are definitely still favored. Let me think about this.

• 24:21Speaker 01

  Plus, for the, for the Knicks, the Pacers are favored minus 220?

• 24:30Bill Simmons?

  Rob, I can't remember if you know how to do odds.

• 24:32Speaker 02

  I don't.

• 24:33Bill Simmons?

  I'll let you have a guess if you want.

• 24:34Speaker 02

  I'm gonna say they're more than that. I think it's probably more of like a minus 5 or 600.

• 24:38Bill Simmons?

  Ohhh. Look at the big balls on Brad.

• 24:45Speaker 02

  They're up 3-2.

• 24:46Bill Simmons?

  Minus 370 for the Pacers.

• 24:47Speaker 02

  There we go. What's the difference?

• 24:49Speaker 01

  Yeah, right in between the two of us.

• 24:50Bill Simmons?

  Well, the Knicks were minus 5 today, which jumped out at me immediately because I thought it was gonna be like a minus 2. So Vegas, obviously, and Fanduel and everybody else probably liked some of the metrics that were going. I do think they saved Neesmith a little bit.

• 25:05Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 25:06Bill Simmons?

  This is one of those you feel it out. Oh, I didn't realize Myles Turner was gonna be hot in this game. Ooh, I didn't realize Walker was gonna make 3-3's. But none of those things were happening. Carlisle was like, alright. I'll save my guy for Saturday night. Here's the, here's, oh, I'll save this. We're gonna take a break for the podcast. Keep going on YouTube. Fanduel has been your buddy for the NBA playoffs, and they still have the same offer for the weekends. It's a no-sweat same-game parlay every weekend when you bet the NBA playoffs. You know, we're gonna have that for the NBA Finals as well. Use your token on 3+ leg, same-game parlay, or same-game parlay plus. On any NBA playoff game, you'll get bonus bets back if you don't win.

• 25:50Bill Simmons?

  So Pacers-Nicks, game 6. If you think the Pacers are gonna bounce back and close it out against the Knicks this weekend, throw together a little same gamer. Maybe you could bet on a Tyrese Haliburton triple-double, or a double-double, or just him hitting 2-3's. Throw it with the Pacers, throw it with the over, and you're off. There's no better place to bet all the playoff action than America's number one sportsbook. Visit fanduel.com/BS. And again, you get a no-sweat same-game parlay every weekend of the NBA playoffs. Fanduel, official sports betting partner of the NBA. You must be 21-plus and present in select states, or 18-plus and present in DC. Opt-in required. Minimum 3-leg parlay required. Refund issued as non-deductible bonus bets that expire 7 days after receipt.

• 26:33Bill Simmons?

  Max refund $5 unless otherwise specified. Restrictions apply. Including token expiration. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Game problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats. Summer is almost here, and you can now get almost anything you need for your sunny days delivered with Uber Eats. What do we mean by almost? Well... You can't get a well groomed lawn delivered, but you can get chicken parmesan delivered. I love chicken parmesan. A cabana, that's a no, but a banana, that's a yes. A nice tan, sorry, nope, but a box fan, happily yes. A day of sunshine, no. A box of fine wines, yes. Uber Eats can definitely get you that.

• 27:14Bill Simmons?

  Get almost, almost anything delivered with Uber Eats. Order now. Alcohol in select markets. Product availability may vary by region. See app for details. Here's the best thing about tonight. We get a game on Saturday night now.

• 27:30Speaker 01

  I'm so happy. It's magnificent.

• 27:31Bill Simmons?

  We weren't going to have basketball for a week.

• 27:33Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 27:34Bill Simmons?

  What are we gonna do?

• 27:34Speaker 01

  I'm so happy I'm gonna order Arby's. How about that? I will have the meats. Me and Jalen Brunson will have the meats. The Jalen Brunson thing that I wanted to observe is that the, you know, it's a very stupid observation that I made at the top of the show, but they created their force of will. They dictated their pace by the high percentage shots that Jalen Brunson gets and takes. And the same thing is true of Towns. I want for the record to say out loud, I tailed the Brunson wager, the Brunson prop.

• 28:09Bill Simmons?

  Thank you.

• 28:10Speaker 01

  Of course, I mean, my, my, my token, my, I'm gonna, you know, cash that in. But it was based on the idea that Towns might be compromised. He wasn't compromised, but it was based on that. And we also had, as a narrative, Knicks aren't gonna go out like this. This, not this, this Knicks team with this Knicks fandom, what they've done in these playoffs, they're not going out with a whimper. They're gonna come home and show pride. JJ, John Dostumsky made a great case for why the Knicks would show up and show out tonight. And they, they, they did that. And I do think, I mean, and let me get your guys' take on this. I've said this a couple of times and, and I think it's, you know, reasonable argument. I think the Knicks have the best five in the East and.

• 28:57Speaker 01

  You know, that doesn't necessarily mean they're the best team in the East, but I think they have the best five in the East.

• 29:03Bill Simmons?

  We argued about this on the phone today because the plus minus stats for the five man units do not back this up. And yet I don't think you're wrong.

• 29:10Speaker 02

  Well, I think this is why I think you're wrong. Which five are you talking about? Cause I think there's, you know, like, is it the Mitchell Robinson five or the Josh Hart five?

• 29:19Speaker 01

  It's definitely the Hart five. Um, but you know,

• 29:22Bill Simmons?

  the stats say it's the Mitchell Robinson five. That's the better one.

• 29:25Speaker 01

  I get it. I'm not, I, I, I understand the point, but I just, you know, when they, they, they, they have six, they have six guys. They have five and a half guys. Cause what you get out of Mitchell Robinson is half a game. You get 20 minutes or you're, you know, uh, you get two thirds out of, out of a minutes wise out of him. Um, but I, I, I would stack this Knicks five up against every other five in the, in, in the East. And I think that's an element of, of why we're sitting here at this point with a game on Saturday night.

• 29:55Bill Simmons?

  Can I give you another element?

• 29:56Speaker 01

  Let's hear it.

• 29:57Bill Simmons?

  This is going to make Rob feel awkward, but this is really House's love language.

• 30:02Speaker 02

  I'm terrified of whatever you're about to say. I honestly have no idea.

• 30:05Speaker 01

  I hope it involves Frank from White Lotus.

• 30:07Bill Simmons?

  No, no, no, it's not. Frank is not involved. Um, you know, if Indiana wins one more game, we're going to have an Indiana versus Oklahoma City finals.

• 30:18Bill Simmons?

  But if the Knicks win the series, we'll have the Knicks in the finals. And if you've noticed from ratings and interest, it's a little more interesting nationally when there's a New York team in the finals. I'd like to bring you back to the year 2002.

• 30:35Bill Simmons?

  Game six, Portland Lakers. I'm sorry. Game six Sacramento Lakers in Sacramento.

• 30:43Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 30:43Bill Simmons?

  If Sacramento wins, we're going to have a Sacramento, New Jersey finals.

• 30:50Bill Simmons?

  And David Stern was like, not on my watch. This is not happening. We are not letting this happen. And we did not get a Sacramento, New Jersey finals. And I'm just, I just, I, I just, I'm being, just be careful. Let's be careful out there for game six, if you're wagering. Just be careful.

• 31:12Bill Simmons?

  Put two fouls on Neesmith pretty quickly. I don't know. Conspiracy Bill. I'm not going to dress up like Conspiracy Bill, but it just, how, so we, the 2002 game six, we've talked a lot about over the years. So I'm just saying.

• 31:24Speaker 01

  An all.

• 31:25Bill Simmons?

  It's in the back of my head. It's in the deep recesses of the back of my head.

• 31:28Speaker 01

  Well, guess when I remembered it? When, when Dallas won the effing lottery two weeks ago on my birthday. I remembered that 2002 game six. Weird things happened. Miracles happened.

• 31:39Bill Simmons?

  Weird things, miracles.

• 31:40Speaker 01

  Miracles, NBA miracles.

• 31:42Bill Simmons?

  Miracles, like Aaron Neesmith having three fouls, six minutes in the first quarter. Like some miracles can happen. You just never know. So we'll have this, this Indiana game Saturday night.

• 31:56Bill Simmons?

  Which will be, I'm trying to think if there's been a bigger Indiana game since the 2000 finals. I'm going to say no. Right?

• 32:04Speaker 02

  I think the only thing that would even come close is when they had a chance to upset the LeBron Cavs. You know, like they were in some of those series and had some pressure packed games.

• 32:13Bill Simmons?

  Right. They never had a chance to, if we win this game at home, we go to the finals. I don't think they've been in that situation. Cause I was thinking during the Pistons, when they, oh, three or oh, four range, they played the Pistons a couple of times. But yeah, I think, what was the game where Tayshaun Prince blocked Reggie Miller from behind?

• 32:31Speaker 02

  The, the chase down.

• 32:32Bill Simmons?

  That was in Indiana, the chase down thing. But this is the biggest Indiana Pacers game, I think, since the 2000 finals. Game four, ironically, the Kobe becoming a special player game. You know, T after Shaq fouls out. So we'll see. I, I guess my question, if you're, Rob, if you're Rick Carlisle, how many, many Pacers do you trust right now? Because we always see the number starts dropping as the playoff series goes along. How many of these guys do you actually trust?

• 33:03Speaker 02

  I thought in this game, you could see his patience being tried with Obi Toppin, especially in the first half.

• 33:09Bill Simmons?

  When he tried to dribble through the two guys?

• 33:11Speaker 02

  That, you know, that's not going to get you on Rick Carlisle's best side, I would say. I thought TJ McConnell had some bad like momentum halting plays that, but you kind of have to play him. Like Tyrese Halliburton needs, needs a rest at some point and Nem Hard hasn't been good enough to be your backup point guard on any kind of full time basis. Like, is Thomas Bryant going to have to continue to play? How bad is that Tony Bradley hip? I cannot believe I'm talking about Tony Bradley in the Eastern Conference Finals.

• 33:35Bill Simmons?

  Who would have thought a Tony Bradley hip injury would be a game six subplot?

• 33:38Speaker 02

  But you know what? The Thomas Bryant minutes are that bad that, that it becomes a subplot. And so I, yeah, I think the guys who are definitely going to be in there, like Shepard is going to be in there. He's, he's earned the right to have some minutes. He plays conservatively enough. I think he's going to be in the mix. Matherin clearly over the last two games has been one of the Pacers best players. I'm, I'm a little worried about Nem Hard at this point though, because like in order to not play those bench guys, you have to stretch the starters more and Neesmith, we'll see what state he's in physically. Obviously Siakam and Halliburton, and I think Turner on a good night, which these have mostly been good nights for him. You want to play those guys a lot.

• 34:11Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 34:11Speaker 02

  Andrew Nem Hard didn't just struggle tonight. He struggled now for like a week.

• 34:15Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 34:15Speaker 02

  It's been, it's been.

• 34:16Bill Simmons?

  It's three awful games in a row.

• 34:17Speaker 02

  Three awful games in a row, shooting like 20 ish, 23, 24% over those three games like.

• 34:23Bill Simmons?

  And doing stuff like drives to the layup to get a layup, but then kicking it out when like, there was one play specifically where Jalen Brunson was the only guy who could come over and try to stop him. And Brunson was coming and he kicked it back out to the corner. It's like, just lay it up, just get two points.

• 34:39Speaker 02

  I think he's got some yips.

• 34:40Bill Simmons?

  He's playing basketball. That's what I was thinking. It felt a little yipsy.

• 34:43Speaker 02

  Very concerning from that perspective.

• 34:46Bill Simmons?

  Well, I'm going to make you a, a once in a lifetime offer right now, both of you. As you know, Zach Lowe and I cleaned up on Neesmith Island. It's been a revelation for us. Just unbelievable how it worked out. It's been, sorry to everybody we had to turn away in the condo projects.

• 35:05Bill Simmons?

  Jarrus Walker Island.

• 35:07Speaker 02

  Oh.

• 35:08Bill Simmons?

  I did buy some property, not, not tonight during the season. Every time he's played, I liked him.

• 35:14Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 35:16Bill Simmons?

  And he's, it's gotten to the point where I don't really understand why he's not playing more. Cause I feel like he's at, I'm sure, listen, I haven't watched nearly enough Pacers games as the actual Pacers fans. I'm sure like, oh my God, this fucking guy thinks Walker should play more. I don't know if I'm right or wrong, but I like when he's out there and I think he does good stuff. And I wonder if we see him more in game six instead of the Thomas Bryant minutes. Do you just go a little smaller? Like what's Robinson? He's going to hurt you on the offensive boards, but it's not like he's going to be posting up whoever it is. They don't post them up. And I wonder if they just try to go small because Walker's a dog. Like he'll, he'll, he'll, uh, he'll fight anybody and fight for position. And I don't know, I, he seemed really comfortable shooting a couple of those threes tonight. And I thought he was playing hard. Am I crazy, Rob?

• 36:02Speaker 02

  You're not, well, here's the thing, if you are crazy, we're crazy together because I have been on the, could Jarrus Walker be a playoff X factor for the Pacers?

• 36:11Bill Simmons?

  It sounds like you've just bought a plot of land.

• 36:14Speaker 02

  I look, the land has been bought. My financial manager has said like, I am ruining his professional reputation. If I continue to buy land on Jarrus Walker Island, so.

• 36:23Bill Simmons?

  Wow, I didn't realize I, I saw some lights on down, down in the island. I didn't know who else that was.

• 36:29Speaker 02

  I'm a believer, you know, the, like, these lights are pretty bright though, right? Like these now crucial must win games to get you to the NBA finals. I thought he, he played pretty well in this one. And, and again, like he's, he's going to make some spotty decisions here and there if he tries to do too much with the ball. But I thought in this game, he was kind of in that Nuggets championship season, Christian Brown zone of like, you go to that spot and you stand there and if you dribble the ball, we will take you out of the game. And you're going to try hard on defense and you're going to fly around. And he was like, he brought some of the athleticism that I thought, you know, if you're taking Obi Toppin off the floor, because you don't like some of the choices he's making, you bring in Jarrus Walker and you're, you're getting some of it back. Maybe not Obi Toppin level athleticism, but some real pop and some length.

• 37:11Bill Simmons?

  How's he calling your broker? Or are you too overextended with the three Wizards rookies when you bought all the stock?

• 37:17Speaker 01

  I mean,

• 37:17Bill Simmons?

  The Bub Carrington Island.

• 37:19Speaker 01

  I have Bub Carrington. I have A.J. Green. I mean, you know, Johnson, A.J. Johnson.

• 37:25Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, A.J. Johnson. You gotta remember what his name is if you're gonna have stock on the island.

• 37:29Speaker 02

  What about Johnny Bryant? Are you are you leveraged on him?

• 37:32Speaker 01

  No.

• 37:32Bill Simmons?

  No.

• 37:33Speaker 01

  Nothing.

• 37:34Bill Simmons?

  And he never bought any any property on Johnny Davis Island.

• 37:38Speaker 01

  No, no, I.

• 37:40Bill Simmons?

  He called in fake fire alarms for Johnny Davis Island, trying to get the island shut down.

• 37:45Speaker 01

  I, yeah, I, I can't say out loud what I what I really prayed for, but.

• 37:49Bill Simmons?

  Please don't.

• 37:50Speaker 01

  Yeah. Even though it's late night.

• 37:53Bill Simmons?

  House? Are you with us on Walker or no?

• 37:55Speaker 01

  I like it. Look, I would be interested in getting some of the, what's it called? Second Spectrum? I want to see some of the data about him on Towns. I'd like to see the idea of him on Towns because Towns is too comfortable. Why, why?

• 38:12Bill Simmons?

  Going in the basket. Yeah, like.

• 38:14Speaker 01

  That's what I'm saying.

• 38:15Bill Simmons?

  A smaller guy should just get in and try to make Towns basically bowl him over.

• 38:20Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, just, I mean, he's got the athleticism. I feel the same way about Toppin. Why isn't Toppin trying to defend Towns? Now, maybe that's true. Maybe.

• 38:28Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 38:29Speaker 01

  There are some matchups there that I'm not like catching as they're occurring in real time. And you certainly don't want Obi Toppin feeling like he can take 10 effing field goal attempts in in field goal attempts in 18 minutes. That's not permissible. You don't get 10, Obi. You don't get 10. You don't get more than than, you know, Tyree Taliberton, okay? Please.

• 38:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 38:51Speaker 02

  Can I? Can I speak for the second spectrum stats real quick about Jairus Walker on Towns? He's not ready for all that. That's too much.

• 39:00Speaker 01

  Okay, okay.

• 39:01Bill Simmons?

  Who's left?

• 39:03Speaker 02

  That's that's kind of it. Like, that's the rotation. I mean, well, oh, yeah, I think Siakam's gonna continue. He's he's gotten some chances. He honestly has not done any better than Turner has.

• 39:13Bill Simmons?

  See, this is the problem with the Pacers in game six is there's some a couple foul trouble guys that they don't really have plan Bs for. Siakam's one of them. Neesmith, I think, is another one, and then Halliburton, obviously, but.

• 39:26Bill Simmons?

  I don't know.

• 39:27Speaker 02

  I mean, I think we know the way that the Pacers guard Towns in this series and it's you make him a defensive liability or you foul him off the floor. Like those are really the two options for them. And they've, they've been pretty effective both throughout most of this series. It's just when he does manage to stay on the floor, he can get by Turner so easily that it creates problems everywhere.

• 39:45Bill Simmons?

  Can we go big picture? Can we go big picture on the Knicks for a second? Cause I feel like I've watched six months of Knicks playoff games at this point, pretty intently. Don't ask why, but I really enjoyed that pit, that Piston series.

• 39:59Speaker 01

  What do you mean? Don't ask why. It's good basketball. It's fun. It's interesting.

• 40:03Bill Simmons?

  Are the Knicks, we always talk about good hangs. Like we even called the Amy Poehler podcast, good hang. Are the Knicks a good hang? It's just for casual basketball fans who don't care. You know, obviously other than the betting pieces, but is it fun to watch this Knicks team? Cause I can't, I haven't really totally decided yet. I, I find myself more aggravated by them than enjoying them with Towns, like all the facial expressions and him calling Brunson. The, the cuts to Tibbs, he has the same look on his face all the time. It just looks like he's trying to pass a kidney stone. Brunson's never smiling. All that, the bridges, the fact that nobody seems to realize that every time he goes to a spot and jumps backwards and everybody forgets that that's his jump shot every time.

• 40:48Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 40:49Bill Simmons?

  Mitchell Robinson, just bowling guys over from behind, getting offensive rebounds. I just find myself frustrated watching them and I, I have no skin in the game. It's, I think I've seen too many Knicks games, Rob.

• 41:00Speaker 02

  I think they're pretty fun. I honestly, I think this is a cat litmus test to me. Cause you're right. That some of the personalities on the court are not the most emotive. Like OG and an Obi, you're not going to get a lot out of during the game.

• 41:11Bill Simmons?

  Blank slate.

• 41:12Speaker 02

  But I'm, I enjoy the cat experience, the ups and the downs, the dramatic turns. Like I'm, I am here to see like every night, can this guy stay on the floor? Can this guy get out of his own way? Can he be the all NBA caliber player he proved to be this season that we all know he's capable of being? Can he be that when you need it? And those have been some of the most satisfying moments of this Knicks run are the moments where cat steps up.

• 41:34Bill Simmons?

  I think he's right, House.

• 41:35Speaker 01

  I agree. How about this? I fucking love these Knicks. I'm into them. I think it is a great time.

• 41:43Bill Simmons?

  I think, cause I think I'm bitter about the Celtics thing and I think that's tainted.

• 41:46Speaker 02

  Yeah, I never would have guessed that.

• 41:47Bill Simmons?

  I'll just put all cards on the table. I might still be mad. Go ahead, House.

• 41:51Speaker 01

  Especially when they're at MSG. I think that they have engendered this love and, and, you know, being reminded of what a great venue, like historic, precedential, precedent, important basketball has happened at MSG.

• 42:09Bill Simmons?

  And presidential.

• 42:10Speaker 01

  Presidential, precedential, all of them, all the Ps.

• 42:14Bill Simmons?

  Probably a president there.

• 42:15Speaker 01

  All the Ps happen at MSG. But it's been a really fun ride watching this team who I, I think, you know, the off-season stuff was a goddamn miracle. How did they get Mikhail Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns? How did they do that?

• 42:35Bill Simmons?

  They traded every asset they had. That's how they got them.

• 42:38Speaker 01

  It was effing worth it. They're in the Eastern Conference Finals in year one, and I think it's like a three-year run. And they can, I do, yeah. I mean, the, the, the combination of, of where they are.

• 42:51Bill Simmons?

  See, I feel like everything's on the table. You could tell me this is Tibbs's last game at Coach on Saturday. You could tell me they're gonna have Giannis next year. I'm ready for anything with them.

• 42:59Speaker 02

  This is the East, though. You know, like, there's that thing where you write your name on the SAT and you get 200 points. You play in the Eastern Conference, like, that's 14 wins. Like, I think you're gonna be all right, right there.

• 43:09Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that's a good point. I will say one thing.

• 43:11Speaker 01

  Their offensive efficiency all season was so good.

• 43:14Bill Simmons?

  House, I agree with you on MSG, and it's fun to have the celebrities there. I will say this, I have noticed this over and over again, the people courtside around the area, a lot of people on the phones. And I think the Knicks fans have to really police. I'm not saying, it's not like the Shalameh guys, but there'll be somebody shooting free throws, and you'll see behind, and it'll be in the front row, and it'll be six people just texting. And it's like, you're at game five of the fucking Eastern Conference Finals, and you guys have a reputation as being some of the best basketball fans in the earth, and you're sitting on the wood. Get off your fucking phone. Get off your phone.

• 43:49Speaker 02

  It could be Mitchell Robinson shooting, in which case it's a hazard. You gotta be careful.

• 43:53Bill Simmons?

  I could get hit by a field goal. All right, so who wins game six? It's in 48 hours.

• 43:58Speaker 02

  Pacers.

• 44:00Speaker 01

  Pacers.

• 44:05Bill Simmons?

  I don't think I'd bet it. Either way, I think it's a stay.

• 44:08Speaker 01

  Should we wait to see who the refs are?

• 44:11Bill Simmons?

  It's something I'm definitely gonna do on Saturday.

• 44:14Speaker 01

  Did we get a Tony Brothers?

• 44:16Bill Simmons?

  Tony Brothers? What's wrong with Tony?

• 44:20Bill Simmons?

  Calls a solid game? Now, I need to think about it some more.

• 44:26Speaker 01

  The extender?

• 44:26Bill Simmons?

  I'll say this, I think it'd be really tough to beat this Pacers team three days, three games in a row with how

• 44:34Bill Simmons?

  one of those games, they're gonna have a really good offensive game. One of those games, Carlisle's gonna figure out something. But I, I think I'd probably lean Pacers because I, I just think their style, especially at home.

• 44:47Bill Simmons?

  I believe in it. But it does, the knee spent 15 minutes today does scare me a little bit.

• 44:53Speaker 02

  It should. I think that combined with Nemhard being this bad, like that's, that is a little bit spooky, but.

• 44:58Bill Simmons?

  Turner will be better at home.

• 44:59Speaker 02

  Turner will be better.

• 45:00Bill Simmons?

  T J McConnell will be better at home. Today was dying for the random T J McConnell. I'm just gonna take over a quarter for six minutes, but he did the opposite. But I, he'll, he has that in him, which they need. Trying to think from a Knicks standpoint, probably hitting a bunch of threes. Brunson has to be around 30. They need something major from Towns. And they need the bench guys to be decent would be the recipe. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Football has a play for just about everything. And whether it's a flea flicker or a tush push, you need a plan that fits your unique situation. That's why State Farm takes the time to get to know you. So they can help personalize coverage for your life and for your budget. Now that's a solid game plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.

• 45:46Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by WeatherTech. Whether it's a pumpkin spice coffee that goes splat in your seat or a weekend tailgate that leaves your trunk full of gear and who knows what? You're gonna want WeatherTech in your vehicle, whether you call it fall, autumn, or spooky season. Whether the mess is your fault, the kids, the dogs, or the weather's fault, you're gonna want WeatherTech. For American made floor liners and a cargo liner that laugh in the face of fall weather, visit weatherTech.com today. You guys both talked about OKC on your, on podcasts this week, but why are, why do you think people are so begrudgingly

• 46:20Bill Simmons?

  careful about calling them a great team?

• 46:24Speaker 02

  Because they're young, I think mostly. I think people are always hesitant.

• 46:26Bill Simmons?

  They just don't fit the profile?

• 46:27Speaker 02

  Yeah. Well, I mean, they're profile wise, they're like, like closer to like the Iverson Sixers or something. It's like, but if you supercharge their defense and also supercharge Allen Iverson, and that's not a formula that we're used like wrapping our heads around, you know, a defense first team that is this defense forward in the modern NBA is, is a bit of an anomaly on this stage.

• 46:47Bill Simmons?

  I told House this on the phone today. They've played nine playoff games at home. They won eight of them by 51, 19, 43, 7, 32, 36, 15, and 30. And they lost one game to Denver in game one. They're up nine with three minutes left and lost the game by two. This is about as dominant of a home team as we've seen through three rounds. And I think that crowd, I think their young guys are more comfortable at home to begin with. It's usually when they go up eight to 10 and their defense takes it over. I just think like, I was saying to House, I really regret not just banging the blowout odds for every game because we should have seen it. Because especially the history of the playoffs, young teams like this built

• 47:30Bill Simmons?

  around a talented guy, they usually kind of kick everybody's ass like this.

• 47:34Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 47:35Bill Simmons?

  And I wonder, like even watching the game tonight, I, I'm just hard pressed to think either of those teams have much of a chance, right?

• 47:43Speaker 02

  I mean, look at the way the Pacers responded to Knicks level defensive pressure. And, and think about the decisions that sometimes Cat will make on the move, or OG or Mikal Bridges will make on the move as they try to navigate through the lane and they're trying to make those connecting passes you have to make. I, I don't see it. I think the Thunder should and will be a heavy favorite against either of these teams. They deserve that. They are a great team. They're, they're an all time team, kind of like hiding in plain sight.

• 48:07Speaker 01

  All, all that is 100% true, and I will be banging hard every one of their home games and playing alt spreads and, and everything. But on the perception question, I think, you know, It's right to think about this, this whole season in, in context. The league kinda has a, a role in this. Like, the league isn't out there promoting SGA. They, it wasn't back in October, we were looking at-

• 48:38Bill Simmons?

  We've said this all year. We've all done it on our, I remember doing a whole monologue about this, about, you know, LeBron and Curry, we love those guys, but-

• 48:46Speaker 01

  Durant.

• 48:46Bill Simmons?

  It's time to start pushing the new dudes and they're just over and over again, hinging on LeBron and Curry on these Saturday night ABC games. It's not like they didn't know OKC was gonna be good, House. Their over under was like 61 wins.

• 49:00Speaker 01

  The thing that I shared with you when we were talking earlier, I'm interested in Rob's opinion. SGA didn't help himself in the Olympics. Like, remember, the, the Olympics did sort of, you know, give everybody a, a big burst of basketball in August and it was high level basketball. The competition was incredible and it took an amazing, like, end of legacy kinda game by Steph. Another career defining, legacy defining game by Steph to put them to night night. And SGA in Canada was forecasted to make a nice little run and they made a run again right to the toilet.

• 49:41Speaker 01

  Cause they stunk. They stunk bad. They were not good. Jamal Murray was horrendous. SGA and Lou Dort, I mean, they were loaded. That Canadian team was good and maybe they should do better.

• 49:52Speaker 02

  I feel like I've been waiting, I've been waiting- Yeah, my entire adult life for Canada basketball to be a real minted thing. And it's just, it never pans out. No matter who's on the roster, they're always quite talented. It's an incredible pipeline of basketball ability and skill and, and development. And for whatever reason, they just do not play well in international play.

• 50:11Bill Simmons?

  That's why they're not good enough to be our 51st state, Rob.

• 50:13Speaker 02

  Wow, okay.

• 50:14Bill Simmons?

  This is why we keep projecting their resume.

• 50:16Speaker 01

  Step up, Canada. Step up.

• 50:19Bill Simmons?

  So SGA, in 16 playoff games this year, 29.8 points a game. And I think that even would have been better, but that, a lot of these games have been blowouts. He's playing almost three minutes a game, more than three minutes a game, less than he did last year in the playoffs. He's now at, his last 26 playoff games, he's at 30 a game. Which, look, the stats are a little skewed. It's a little like late 90s baseball steroids, just cause the pace is different, points are up. If you're a guard scoring 30 a game for a long sample size, I think that might even go up in the finals. And in some of these games, just getting any shots he wants in the biggest moments,

• 51:00Bill Simmons?

  it's really, really impressive. It's what he did those first three rounds was as impressive as, I don't know, anything I've seen from a two guard in the last 25 years. It's up there with any of Kobe's playoff runs. It's, I don't want to put it with the Wade 06 because what Wade did in the finals especially, like that was just him up by himself, just willing them. But it's way up there and I, I don't think he's a finished product yet. Do you, Rob? It feels like we still were like 90% there.

• 51:32Speaker 02

  He's a different player than he was six weeks ago. Like his development through these playoffs has been a huge story and part of the reason they're here. His ability to adapt to the variety of defenses that have been thrown at him. Like you would think if you're someone like Shay, you've seen everything, but you kind of haven't until you get into these seven game dogfights over and over against dramatically different teams. I think he's aced kind of all those tests. Like he's had moments where this game in crunch time, maybe I don't love the shot selection. This game, maybe the percentages aren't there, but on balance, you just see the line going up and up and up. And from a Thunder perspective, what more could you ask for than that?

• 52:07Bill Simmons?

  There's been some revisionist history, House. And I even might've been guilty on it on this pod a couple of times recently. No, just, I think we all liked the trade when it happened. And now it seems like the worst trade of all time, the Paul George and the J and the picks. But when it happened, we were all like, that's amazing. Nobody, the Clippers were dead in the water. This was the way that they could get Kawhi Leonard, who had just won the finals MVP for Toronto. And basically they're trading all this stuff for Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. And they didn't want the Lakers to get him. And Ballmer was an owner for five years and he had to do this to keep the Lakers from getting Kawhi Leonard. And also like this made them

• 52:47Bill Simmons?

  the favorites to win the title in 2020. So they gave up a lot, but I, to me, that it's not as bad as the Durant trade, which I think when they, when the Suns did that one, we were like, man, that's a lot. I get why they did it, but holy shit. And you have no outs now after this trade. With the Clippers, it was like they had one, one way. Now you could argue, should they have played poker with Kawhi and just been like, look, We're back. Just sign with us. We have all these assets. We're going to be able to keep building around this and just kind of talk them into it because it didn't seem like they want to play with the Lakers. But I don't know, that trade, it's easy to say five years after the fact, it's a complete catastrophe because it is. But I think the reasoning behind it was was solid. What do you think, House?

• 53:32Speaker 01

  I thought it was a worthwhile gamble at the time, under the circumstances and in the context, and you just kind of laid it out. But the, you know, the real animus there, driving animus, the driving force was Ballmer trying to do something with that franchise.

• 53:48Bill Simmons?

  Like, right. Invigorate, not even reinvigorate them, invigorate them.

• 53:52Speaker 01

  Invigorate, exactly right. And that's fair. Like, he's the owner, he's the guy with the money and they're trying to do a thing. So they try, they had to pay a price for it. It just turned out that the price exceeded what they imagined. And that that happens.

• 54:08Bill Simmons?

  Well, and SGA was, turned out to be a, oh, I think a way better player than anyone expected, even though we all liked him.

• 54:13Speaker 01

  Sure, yes.

• 54:15Bill Simmons?

  And they also nailed the picks, Rob, which, like, you look at all the picks New Orleans got, or New Orleans got from the Lakers, and it's, sometimes you nail the picks, sometimes you don't. Like, they took Jalen Williams at the 12th pick.

• 54:26Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 54:26Bill Simmons?

  Right? And he's the second best player on the team. They tanked for three, four months in to get the Chet Holmgren thing. But they also had to get the ping pong balls in the top three, which is, House can attest, doesn't always work, even after you spend the whole year trying to lose.

• 54:44Speaker 01

  It's a low blow.

• 54:44Bill Simmons?

  Well, it's true.

• 54:45Speaker 01

  It's a fact.

• 54:46Bill Simmons?

  So there was some luck with them.

• 54:48Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 54:49Bill Simmons?

  They made an awesome trade, and the Jalen Williams pick was great, and they were lucky to get in the lottery. They smartly took Chet. Everything they did was super smart. But that trade, you know, I don't think you can look at it and be like, oh my God, that's the worst trade ever. I would, I would go the other way. I would say that's like, one of the best trades ever. Turning Paul George into all the stuff they got. All they gave up was Paul George.

• 55:12Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 55:12Bill Simmons?

  All the stuff they got back, it shouldn't be discussed as worst, it should be discussed as best.

• 55:18Speaker 02

  An incredibly worthwhile gamble for the Thunder, given their circumstances, to recoup all that for Paul George.

• 55:23Bill Simmons?

  And they knew they had to get rid of Russ, too.

• 55:25Speaker 02

  Yeah. And for the Clippers, I still completely get it. You put yourself back in those circumstances, it still makes sense to me. Like, the premise still makes sense.

• 55:32Bill Simmons?

  It's a great trade.

• 55:33Speaker 02

  I think, honestly, like, that trade has been amazing, and we've spent, I would say, the last, maybe 18 months or so, debating on and off, do the Thunder need to make some kind of move? Like, should they cash in some of these picks that they've stockpiled for another player? Is Jalen Williams gonna be a good enough second star? They made the big trade to get Shay, and they did not make the big mistake of trading away and disrupting what, as we're saying, is clearly a great team, is clearly a championship-worthy team. Like, they invested in that project, and they're fucking there. Like, they are right there on the precipice of doing everything they set out to do.

• 56:08Speaker 01

  It's amazing, it's an amazing what if, because if they lost to Denver,

• 56:13Speaker 01

  like, I do think they'd be cashing in some chips.

• 56:15Speaker 02

  Maybe.

• 56:16Speaker 01

  I mean.

• 56:17Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, the sliding doors for them is what if Aaron Gordon doesn't hurt his groin? I still think they probably win by 20, but I think that Denver team with healthy Aaron Gordon was Michael Myers, and they just were not, you were, you know, I think once Denver fell behind 15 in that game, they kind of knew. And that's been, I think you and I were talking about this today, House. The thing that's special about this OKC team, beyond the obvious stuff, is they really do break teams during a series. And they, in all three series, the team they're playing against hit a point, and you could really feel it in that Minnesota series, was 26 to 9, and it's like, this game's over. You're not coming back against OKC. Their defense is too good.

• 56:59Bill Simmons?

  It's, this is a wrap. You know where it's going. And you could kind of feel the energy from Minnesota go sideways. And, you know, they had limitations, and the Conley thing was, I think, as the series went on, even, even more disastrous than we could have predicted. But the type of team that should be able to hang with them, unless you have somebody like Jokic, is a team that plays like Indiana. I just don't know if they have the horses, but the up and down pace, like let's get in a track meet that 128 to 126 Minnesota game four. That to me is the model of how the Pacers can hang with them, but there's a reason the OKC is minus 750 on FanDuel to win the title right now. Minus 750 house.

• 57:40Bill Simmons?

  That's, that's like the biggest since you're talking like Warriors. I don't know, 2018?

• 57:50Speaker 01

  I am nothing if not a creature of recency bias, you know, right in the, right in the, in the kisser, but the Pacers have no chance. They, I, this, that's a 4-1 series because the thing that OKC did to Minnesota, which was strangle them like a python.

• 58:13Bill Simmons?

  They'll be a dead Indian.

• 58:14Speaker 01

  When they go all the way up to the free throw line and say, oh, you want to bring the ball up? Go ahead. And they, and they, they start like, like, you know, mini trapping. Forget it. No chance.

• 58:29Bill Simmons?

  What's interesting is Indiana can do the flip side to OKC. It's, it's not like OKC has like a real point guard and you could try to do the same thing, but I just think OKC's defense is better. Rob, who do you think has a better chance from, let's just, I'll give you either side. Knicks, OKC, Knicks or Indiana going to the next round?

• 58:48Speaker 02

  I think there's no question Indiana has a better chance. The only way to beat the Thunder is to be unbelievably precise with your passing. And you know, you have Tyrese Halliburton has these amazing 15 assists, zero turnover games overall. It's an incredibly low turnover offense. I suspect that would change if they meet in the NBA finals. I think the, the pressure ratcheting up is going to be a totally different thing. And it speaks to what you mentioned, Bill, about the way that the Thunder break teams, the way that they kind of break your spirit. I think a lot of it is game one, you go in, you think you know what they are, you see it, it's tough. You think, okay, we're going to go back, we're going to look at the film, we're going to figure out where the holes are. You look at the film and it's like, there kind of are no holes or they're vanishingly small.

• 59:30Speaker 02

  And whatever, however you think playing against the Thunder is going to be, they are so much faster and more frenetic than you anticipate. And so even like, by the time you get to game three, it's like, I just don't think there's anything here. Like, I don't know what the mechanism is again, short of, as you said, having Nikola Jokic on your team, a guy who can see over the top of that entire defense and try to make. 99th percentile passes out of it. Short of that, I honestly don't know what you do. That's not to say that they're unbeatable. I just don't know what the formula is.

• 59:58Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they cause turnovers that you see in like an eighth grade basketball game. Of just like

• 1:00:04Speaker 02

  That's true.

• 1:00:05Bill Simmons?

  Long lob passes that just get picked off or dunked. I'll give you one case for Indiana that I thought was interesting. I looked this up.

• 1:00:14Bill Simmons?

  There's been 10 teams ever that have won 10 playoff games and averaged at least 28 assists a game. Here are the teams. The 85 Lakers won the title. 33.7 assists a game, by the way. 82 Lakers won the title. 84 Lakers went to a game seven, the finals. 80 Lakers won the title. 86 Celtics won the title. Number six all time, Indiana. 86 Houston made the finals. 19 Warriors should have won the title, made the finals. 87 Lakers won the title. And the 17 Warriors won the title. Those are 10 teams that did that.

• 1:00:56Bill Simmons?

  And that made me think like, maybe this Indiana team's a little more rare offensively than we're giving it credit for. And then they stink tonight and that's that. That's why I waited 53 minutes to redo that list. So I'm ready to lead with that if they win tonight.

• 1:01:10Speaker 01

  Here's the thing, we saw a valiant effort out of Minnesota, you know, last night. That you, you can try and score with Oklahoma City. That your best bet is to like, score with them. Because they go, they go gaps, you know, where, where they're just a little too happy with taking shots that are just like comfortable. And they'll go a couple of minutes without making a bucket. I mean, Shaq can always, always, always get to the lane, get inside the lane and, and, you know, get a floater off or get to the, to the rim if he wants to, but.

• 1:01:42Bill Simmons?

  We're, we're old. We've seen a lot of great scorers. Shay's way getting way up there for me.

• 1:01:48Speaker 01

  He's way up there.

• 1:01:50Bill Simmons?

  I can't believe how easily he gets whatever shot he wants, no matter how much the defense is throwing stuff at him. Like, you know, Kobe was more in that Jordan side of, and I think Wade was a little, Wade would just either go to the basket or he would shoot. He didn't have the three point shot. He was so athletic, he could always figure out a way to kind of bounce off people and get in. Shay, the way he navigates, it's honestly like watching a hockey player. The way he kind of skates around until he gets what he wants and then he gets a shot he wants.

• 1:02:19Speaker 01

  Well, if you're gonna do that, I'm gonna say Gretzky. Like, he moves that way. He moves angles. Like, he has shoulder tilt to getting off his stuff where he's avoiding contact.

• 1:02:32Bill Simmons?

  And then the footwork to finish and he always finishes. He always finishes the, whatever the great move was, which most guys, this is Jason Tatum was his biggest issue. He'd have these great moves and he would, wouldn't finish half the time. Shay finishes every time.

• 1:02:46Speaker 01

  He finishes every time.

• 1:02:47Speaker 02

  Crazy good finisher. Like, the way, his length and the way he extends around the basket is so hard to counter. The mid-range game is basically unstoppable, no matter what your size is. Like, there's not a lot you can do. And, you know, you can have the conversation about the way he's officiated, but he also plays through contact to shoot. You know, this isn't James Harden pulling up through your arms and throwing the ball literally straight up in the air. Like, he is playing to complete plays. And he honestly will convert a lot of and ones, or kind of would be or should be and ones in a lot of cases.

• 1:03:15Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I don't feel, like, when I was complaining a couple of times about how he was being called, I don't really blame him for some of the calls. It's just for whatever reason, refs gravitate towards certain styles. And for him, he has that way of when he drives, he can throw his left arm out and they usually think it's a foul. Sometimes it isn't, but I don't think that's the reason. I mean, to me, it's the footwork and just his, the herky jerky stuff, the stop start. His stop start stuff is the best. I feel like it's even gone up a level in the playoffs. I just have not seen a lot of guys like him. I really think like this start to finish year for him. They have a chance to go 84 and 18.

• 1:03:57Bill Simmons?

  For a season, which puts them in this whole like highest possible level of dudes. And he's just 32 a game that afternoon. And it's not like, oh, he had that 75 point game that skewed his average. It's every night, it's 32, 38, 31, 35, 37, 29, 39. And it's just the steadiness of it, especially on a team where you kind of don't know who else is going to be steady offensively. Like they haven't shot the ball well from three all playoffs, Rob, and it hasn't mattered.

• 1:04:27Speaker 02

  No, I mean, they'll have select guys who will pop off here and there, but the defense is so good and Shay is so good. And I think in enough games, Jalen Williams has been so good that that triangulated together is enough to be an incredibly dominant, potentially historically dominant playoff team. Like I, I think what you described about Shay being that rock solid as a scorer, like he doesn't have these Tyrese Halliburton games. He doesn't even have the off Jalen Brunson games where he'll, you know, shoot six for 19 from the field or whatever. Like it's just always going to be there. And the fact that you can bank on that every night as a team gives you immense freedom to play guys like Alex Caruso and stretch them as far as you can, like relative non-scores, play guys like Lou Dort even more than you would otherwise be able to get away with.

• 1:05:09Speaker 02

  Have the odd game from Chet where he, you know, can't quite hit from three and isn't a factor offensively in the way you would want, but who cares because Shay has 39. Like I think you just have so much you can make up for when you have those two things as your two tent poles. Shay putting in 30 plus, a defense like that, it's incredibly tough to beat.

• 1:05:27Bill Simmons?

  We say this every time a team, Nav, it obviously needs four more games, but we always say like, you immediately start talking about how long could this go? Could this keep going? How many could they get?

• 1:05:38Bill Simmons?

  This feels like the safest bet to have like two in a row or three in a row since the Warriors.

• 1:05:43Speaker 02

  Like, yeah, let's not get too far ahead of it, but yeah.

• 1:05:46Bill Simmons?

  Because I still feel like they're probably going to be better next year.

• 1:05:49Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:05:50Bill Simmons?

  Everybody comes back. The only thing I could see changing is if they traded Lou Dort because they had to move some money around, but it's going to be the same team a year older and not, you know. All of their young stars aren't even close to their primes, except for Shay. So we'll see. I'm sure they're licking their chops, hoping this Indiana, New York game goes seven and, and more and more people get, or, or playing semi injured. Do you have a TV show recommendation for House once basketball ends for five days?

• 1:06:17Speaker 01

  I'm here.

• 1:06:18Speaker 02

  I'm trying to figure it out. You know, everything's ending right now. I think we're about to check out Stick, the Owen Wilson golf comedy on Apple. I'm excited for that. I'm, I'm excited to see what's going on with Stick.

• 1:06:28Speaker 01

  That's right in my wheelhouse. There we go.

• 1:06:30Bill Simmons?

  We got some stuff next month. The Bears coming back.

• 1:06:32Speaker 02

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:06:34Speaker 01

  Can I say out loud that the last season of The Bear bored the shit out of me?

• 1:06:39Speaker 02

  I think.

• 1:06:39Bill Simmons?

  It was a transition season. It's funny.

• 1:06:41Speaker 02

  You definitely can say it out loud.

• 1:06:42Bill Simmons?

  It's also not a show that was meant to be binged.

• 1:06:45Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:06:46Bill Simmons?

  It's a two, it should be two. House, I have a show for you.

• 1:06:50Speaker 01

  I'm listening.

• 1:06:52Bill Simmons?

  It's the, the Mormon, the, the mom talk moms on Hulu, whatever that show is, the reality show.

• 1:07:00Speaker 01

  Oh, it's a reality show?

• 1:07:01Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it's these mom talk moms. It's not a real Housewives show. It's, it's like Mormon, the Mormon something.

• 1:07:07Speaker 01

  Let me ask a question that's delicate on live YouTube.

• 1:07:10Bill Simmons?

  No, no, be careful, House.

• 1:07:12Speaker 01

  How much menopause is involved?

• 1:07:14Bill Simmons?

  No, they're younger. They're all like young Mormon women.

• 1:07:18Speaker 02

  Is this the secret lives of Mormon wives? Is that the show?

• 1:07:22Bill Simmons?

  That's what it is, House.

• 1:07:22Speaker 01

  Hey, but wait, are they on mom talk?

• 1:07:25Bill Simmons?

  They're on mom talk. They're mom talk. No, not on mom, not mom talk. They're, it's, they're called mom talkers.

• 1:07:31Speaker 01

  Mom talk?

• 1:07:32Bill Simmons?

  I was watching with my daughter. This is her new favorite show. My daughter's home. So I'm watching bad television shows like this again, but, uh, there was a swinging scandal, House.

• 1:07:42Speaker 01

  Oh, I'm in. That's not a scandal if you're Mormon. Oh, shit.

• 1:07:45Bill Simmons?

  Well, it was a scandal because.

• 1:07:47Speaker 01

  You're not allowed to say that.

• 1:07:48Bill Simmons?

  No, well, that was the thing. It's, it's, it violated the religion. It also violated some friendships and there was some healing to do. The Mormon, like they, you know.

• 1:07:58Speaker 01

  Okay. I'm gonna stop.

• 1:08:00Bill Simmons?

  Some stuff was, let me tell you, it's in your wheelhouse.

• 1:08:04Speaker 01

  Okay, good, good. All right.

• 1:08:05Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. And then it's episode four, I'd be like, it would be cool if you guys all went on vacation and then played games where you guys got into fights with each other. And of course, they do that. So anyway, for me and my daughter, it was really, it was really a win all the way around. That's my recommendation.

• 1:08:19Speaker 01

  Is that what it's called?

• 1:08:19Bill Simmons?

  Secret Lives of Mormon something.

• 1:08:22Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 1:08:23Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. There you go.

• 1:08:24Speaker 01

  I don't get, uh, the categories on TikTok.

• 1:08:28Bill Simmons?

  I don't know if they're cranking out the secret live show at Rob's house. Secret Lives of Mormon Wives. That's what that's the title.

• 1:08:34Speaker 01

  Lives of Mormon Wives.

• 1:08:36Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:08:36Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 1:08:37Speaker 02

  I have died inside during this segment, but you know, we, we live on, we're gonna be reborn tomorrow.

• 1:08:42Bill Simmons?

  Just gets 40 minutes out of your life. We might not have basketball in two days.

• 1:08:45Speaker 02

  That's fair.

• 1:08:47Bill Simmons?

  I remember trying to talk House into Laguna Beach 20 years ago. Mission accomplished. Well, cause he was already watching it.

• 1:08:55Speaker 01

  Didn't really have to bend my arm.

• 1:08:56Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Um, all right. Uh, Rob Mahoney, are we gonna see you? When are we seeing you on group chat?

• 1:09:02Speaker 02

  Well, the good news is now that we have a Saturday game, we're gonna have a Saturday group chat. So.

• 1:09:06Bill Simmons?

  There you go.

• 1:09:06Speaker 02

  Tune in for us on Saturday night.

• 1:09:08Speaker 01

  Let's go.

• 1:09:08Bill Simmons?

  House, we'll talk gambling. This episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. In today's sports, everyone is constantly trying to outdo each other. Trick formations, infield shifts, constant rotation changes, yet it's proven time and time again that strong fundamentals are the thing that will lead you to victory. Banking, no different. While everyone else tries to outdo each other, PNC Bank just keeps going right down the middle with steady, calculated money moves and the financial wins just keep coming. PNC Bank. Brilliantly boring since 1865. Brilliantly boring since 1865 is a registered mark of the PNC Financial Services Group, Incorporated. PNC Bank, National Association, Member, FTIC. All right, quick break. This episode is brought to you by Fire TV.

• 1:09:54Bill Simmons?

  You ever sit down, ready to watch the game, only to search and scroll endlessly? If so, you need Fire TV. It shows you are live games from your favorite teams all in one place, right on the home screen. No more searching. Just sit down and turn on Fire TV. Separate subscriptions may be required. Feature and content availability may vary.

• 1:10:13Bill Simmons?

  All right, we're recording this part of the podcast. It is late Thursday morning Pacific time. I needed a Massachusetts guy on. It'd been a while. I don't know. I've had, had a few over the years, but we got Albert Breer from Sports Illustrated. Also haven't talked football in a long time on this podcast. Haven't talked football with you on this podcast ever. And I sent you a text and I said, come up with a gimmick. I don't want to know what it is. Maybe it's a gimmick like you're buried in the NBA playoffs. Stuff's happened in the NFL that you're probably not paying attention to. I'm here to tell you what that is. What gimmick did you come up with?

• 1:10:48Speaker 03

  That was actually exactly it, Bill.

• 1:10:50Bill Simmons?

  Oh, great. I spoiled your gimmick.

• 1:10:53Speaker 03

  That, uh, that, yeah, you might be buried in the NBA playoffs. And so we're going to get everybody caught up on what's happening in the NFL who hasn't been paying attention. And, um, I got a sneaking suspicion. A couple of these you probably, uh, you probably paid some attention to, but, um, I, I actually had trouble narrowing it down to five, but I think I have five.

• 1:11:13Bill Simmons?

  You could do an honorable mention at the end, if there's a couple.

• 1:11:15Speaker 03

  I have a couple honorable mentions, like, my honorable mentions, we can do that start, like Jim Ursay's passing. I, I think, you know, I, we should give some, uh, give some mention to that. And then Trey Hendrickson's contract situation. I didn't know if that was interesting enough, but that's still ongoing.

• 1:11:32Bill Simmons?

  We'll save those for the end. Come, come at it with a bang first, and then we'll save the honorable mention for late.

• 1:11:38Speaker 03

  The other thing is like over the last 48 hours, I did learn what pink cocaine is. So I got that too.

• 1:11:45Bill Simmons?

  So this has been on a few of my past fan text threads. I also did not know what pink cocaine is, but I'm old. Um, yeah, Stefan Diggs already in a, what, is it a yacht scandal? Is it an embrolio? What is it?

• 1:12:01Speaker 03

  I mean, I don't know if it would. I mean, it's not like it's up there with like the Love Boat, you know, um, in Minnesota 20 years ago. That, that I think is still a gold standard. I'd probably put. I'd probably still put this behind like the SS Beckham in um in 2016, right? Right before the playoffs, but maybe it might be number three in my time covering the NFL as far as boat scandals go.

• 1:12:23Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, Vrabel, Pat's coach, Mike Vrabel, the new most important coach of my life. Did he was just basically like, we're not talking about this and yada yada did it a little bit and we'll see if this story dies. All right. So let's go top five biggest things do first and then we'll do honorable mentions. So the biggest thing that has happened during the NBA playoffs NFL related that you think I should care about because I'm paying attention is what?

• 1:12:48Speaker 03

  The Steelers didn't sign a quarterback.

• 1:12:52Bill Simmons?

  What are they doing?

• 1:12:54Speaker 03

  Um, they are pretty confident that their quarterback's going to be Aaron Rodgers. And I do think that there's like, I, I think there's actually some decent reason here for people who want to listen to it. And I, I think this, this, this goes back to like how you manage everything in the spring and trying to get their work done. And I, I think the logic for both sides here was if he signs April 1st, and look, he's got personal stuff he's dealing with, he's traveling. And if he signs April 1st and says, okay, guys, like, I'm going to go away for the next two months and when I'm back, I'm back. But like, I gotta, I got some personal stuff I gotta attend to. I gotta, I'm, I'm, I've got travel planned.

• 1:13:38Speaker 03

  What you're inviting then is then whenever you, you, you start the off season program, you get into OTAs, anytime the media is there, it's going to be where's Aaron, where's Aaron, where's Aaron? And so I think both sides wanted to avoid that. And so that's part of it. And then I think the other end of it, and this is like, to me, almost the more interesting thing. I think Aaron was really affected by the way his, um, his trip to Egypt was covered last year. And so going through all of that.

• 1:14:07Bill Simmons?

  We can, we can we go backwards? How was it covered? I don't even remember.

• 1:14:11Speaker 03

  Well, if you remember, so he skipped the mini camp, the Jets had their mini camp at the end of June or in the middle of June last year at the end of their off season program. And Aaron had been like pretty much a full participant in everything that they'd done up until then. And then he skipped the mini camp. And it was something that they had kind of predetermined he was gonna do, but you know, Sala said to him, okay, like, that's fine, but I still have to find you and I still have to hold you responsible. And I still have to say, like, this isn't an excused absence because we have to have a standard for everybody. And it became like a two or three week story. And when they hit bumps in the summer and early in the fall, it continued to be a story. And I, like, the sense I get is that Aaron was frustrated by that and he didn't want

• 1:14:54Speaker 03

  to go through that again. So I think part of the logic here for the Steelers, for Aaron, is just whenever you're in, you're all in, but not until then. And so I, I think the logic here between the Steelers and Aaron is like, okay, like, once you show up, like, we need all of you, bud. We need you, we need you all the way here. And so Aaron's taking care of everything he needs to take care of now. And, and, and when he shows up, I do think he'll be all in. And, you know, again, I think a huge part of this is marked by what happened with the Jets last year.

• 1:15:28Bill Simmons?

  Can I recap your seemingly logical explanation?

• 1:15:32Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:15:33Bill Simmons?

  So Aaron Rodgers was upset that when he left the team to go to Egypt during a time when all of his teammates were actually around and accountable to play for the Jets, that people covered that like it was a news story because he was the quarterback of the most famous person in the team. And he didn't like how that played out.

• 1:15:51Speaker 03

  Because it was a news story?

• 1:15:53Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. So he didn't like that a news story was a news story. And now he is doing this, I don't know what I'm doing yet, but then he's also showing up on Pat McAfee, just pining on stuff and kind of doing whatever he wants. Like, if I'm on the Steelers and I thought this guy, I, I thought Rodgers was, didn't want to get hit anymore last year. I don't know how you felt. Did you feel like he wanted to get hit anymore? Cause I didn't.

• 1:16:17Speaker 03

  So I think that there's an element of that, but I think if you go back and you watch, you see pieces of it. Like, I'm telling you, just pull up like a 10 minute highlight of their game against the Jaguars, which nobody watched because it was the Jets and the Jaguars at the end of the season. But if you pull up like a 10 minute YouTube highlight of that game at the end of December, you'll see it's like all. Still there. You'd be like, wow, like that looks like Aaron Rodgers in 2011, you know?

• 1:16:40Bill Simmons?

  I mean, I, I didn't realize he was able to pull that off against the tanking Jaguars.

• 1:16:45Speaker 03

  Yeah, but it does look good. I'm just telling you that like, like I, I understand, but like there were some real, there was like some high level shit in that game. And that he and Devante Adams, they, they, it, it, it's really, it's, it's all there, you know? So, um, you know, I, I think, I think what's maybe most interesting about this whole thing to me is where the Steelers are. And that they are so leveraged for right now. Um, TJ Watt wants a new contract. He's turning 31. Minka Fitzpatrick's turning 29. I mean, Cam Hayward isn't on the back nine. He's, I mean, basically walking to the clubhouse now. Like he, this is probably his last shot. They trade for DK Metcalf, who's a third contract guy and has had some injury issues.

• 1:17:28Speaker 03

  Like it's really, I mean, this is a team, like if this group's going to win, it sort of has to be right now. And so, you know, I think a big part of, you know, the Steelers logic, and I felt like all along, like they were going to be a contender for whatever big name quarterback became available. Is Kirk Cousins a swing for the fences?

• 1:17:49Bill Simmons?

  I've been waiting on that one, by the way.

• 1:17:51Speaker 03

  Yeah. And like to, to me, like, that's the thing with Kirk. It's like Kirk is like more, you may be more likely to hit a double with Kirk and less likely to hit a homerun. If that makes sense, you know, where with Aaron, maybe you're more likely to strike out, but at least you're swinging for the fences when you've been really average at that position since Ben Roethlisberger retired.

• 1:18:11Bill Simmons?

  So you're basically only in the torn Achilles recovery, old quarterback business at this point.

• 1:18:17Speaker 03

  I mean, what else is available though? I mean, if it wasn't going to be Stafford, right? Like, and I think Stafford was the most logical answer for a lot of different teams, you know, and the Raiders and Giants were really in that one. The Steelers dipped their toe in it. I, like, there just aren't that many options, you know? So it was a bad year to be looking at quarterback in the draft, especially, you know, if you didn't have the first overall pick. And the veteran options, again, like there were a lot of, I mean, the Rams. When the Rams, when, when the Rams made the offer they did to Stafford, you know, back in March, it was with it in the back of their head. This guy doesn't want to leave Los Angeles and this guy doesn't want to play for anybody but Sean McVay.

• 1:19:02Speaker 03

  And the Giants, and the Giants had, yeah, and the Giants had the same, the Giants had the same like sort of thing in the backs of their head as they were, as they were pursuing him. Raiders too, it was like, yeah, we're really going after this, but this guy's going to wind up back in LA. So, you know, if you take Stafford off the table, then it really is, it's Cousins, it's, it's, it's, it's Rogers. And then, I mean, now after that, you're talking about getting into like Joe Flacco territory. There just wasn't a lot out there.

• 1:19:31Bill Simmons?

  So just all, all probably washed up guys. So the Steelers died in the last month of the season. And one of the people, one of the things, one of the reasons they died is TJ Watt died as the season went along. And the last, I don't know, 40, 35, 40% of his season, he just didn't seem disruptive anymore. And I know they, you know, maybe under the, under the radar blaming, but the Russell Wilson thing got weird. Team wasn't that good to begin with. The schedule got really unfavorable for them down the stretch, et cetera, et cetera. But like, I'm looking at FanDuel and they are over eight and a half wins.

• 1:20:05Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:20:06Bill Simmons?

  Which with, in the Tom and era, for me is just a blind, I don't even have to look at that, checking it. Uh, that's plus 125 on FanDuel. Cause all the action has been on the under, which is now minus 145. Um.

• 1:20:22Speaker 03

  I don't, how much of that's just because Mason Rudolph's the quarterback right now?

• 1:20:27Bill Simmons?

  But could it also be what happened to them in the last month of last season? And the fact that you can point to a couple AFC teams and go, well, that team's going to, the Pats are going to be better. The Jets are going to be better. They're in the same thing with the Ravens. The Bengals, they might fix their defense. We'll see with Hendrickson.

• 1:20:44Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:20:44Bill Simmons?

  The Browns might actually have a little more stability at quarterback. AFC South is going to be better, except for Houston. You go on through and it's like, maybe this is going to run out this year. I'm just starting my homework and it makes, they make me nervous.

• 1:20:59Speaker 03

  They're, they're so like, I would, you know, I would say like their, their offensive line should be a lot better. Like, and they've, we've actually drafted okay. Troy Fatanu, you know, works out for them at tackle. You know, they've got Broderick Jones. That's two first round picks at tackle. They should be as strong. Zach Fraser might be the best young center in football. Like they, they have a chance to have the best offensive line they've had in over a decade. And then if DK Metcalf comes through, and I know I'm talking a lot of ifs here, right? Like if DK Metcalf comes through, if TJ Watt is himself again, if, I think if it's Patrick.

• 1:21:29Bill Simmons?

  If Aaron Rodgers is still alive.

• 1:21:31Speaker 03

  Right. So like, there's all of these ifs, but if, but if you're them, like what's your other choice? You know what I mean? It's either, it was either this, like take this big swing at quarterback and try to get it right and try to squeeze a championship run out of this core that you've had together for the last few years, or blow it up. And like, that's why I look at this as like, that's, it's a, it's the one team where you look at it. I was like, that's a team that like, that's a really worthy swing. Because now at least like, you're taking that swing with TJ Watt and Fitzpatrick and like some really great players they've had there for a long time. I don't, I don't mind this swing if I'm the Steelers. And, and look, like, I think people

• 1:22:11Speaker 03

  there would tell you that the Russell Wilson thing undermined so many things in the last month of the season, and that a lot of that building really wanted them to go back to Justin Fields. And it was, it was something where, I mean, Tomlin was kind of, again, all on his own on that one. And I think it's part of the reason why Tomlin likes Shador, like, like he likes Shador going into the draft. But I don't think Tomlin wanted to, I don't, I don't think he wanted to like, press that button again at quarterback after what happened with Russell at the end of the year last year. So there were some dynamics there where it's like, I mean, there's some stuff that happened at the end of the year in games where it was

• 1:22:52Speaker 03

  just like, man, like if we were just like average at that position or we were just running the running things as they were supposed to be run, we might've been okay. And like, so I think their thought is if we can get like 80, 85% of what Aaron Rodgers was three years ago, like we might have a Super Bowl team, which you can argue whether they would or not. But I think when you, when, if you're them and you're looking at it with this group of players that you've had for the last few years, and this might be your last shot before you really like go through like a real reset, then it's worth taking that swing.

• 1:23:29Bill Simmons?

  Well, philosophically, they just feel like they're one of the teams that have decided it doesn't make sense to spend a lot of money at quarterback unless the guy's awesome.

• 1:23:37Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:23:38Bill Simmons?

  And we could patch this together, put together the rest of the team around and try to get to 10, 11 wins every year and then hope we can cross our fingers. Here's the issue for them. I mean, if, if I asked you on Fanduel right now, who had better odds to make the playoffs, the Patriots or the Steelers? Who would you say?

• 1:23:56Speaker 03

  Well, because you're asking me, I know it's the Patriots.

• 1:23:58Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I probably could have framed that better. I should be better at this after 19 years. Yeah, the Patriots are plus 158 and the Steelers are plus 164. Now, a lot of that has to do with this.

• 1:24:08Speaker 03

  Schedule.

• 1:24:09Bill Simmons?

  This schedule the Patriots have is, it's comical.

• 1:24:12Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:24:13Bill Simmons?

  Like you're like, is this real? Where are they? Oh, there's Buffalo. Okay, there's, but you go through and it's like they're favored apparently.

• 1:24:20Speaker 03

  In 11 games, I think it is.

• 1:24:21Bill Simmons?

  I think it's 13 of the 17 right now or 12, something like that. Anyway, uh, well, we'll see with Pittsburgh. All right. What's your number two thing?

• 1:24:29Speaker 03

  So my number two thing, the Cowboys, a year after Jerry Jones famously used the phrase all in, actually pulled an all in move and traded for George Pickens and.

• 1:24:40Speaker 03

  This one is really interesting to me because they're another team where like what all the things you said about the Steelers, I think sort of apply to the Cowboys, right? Like, is this group that they have right now going to be good enough? And like, is there something that you can do to try to put that group over the top? And so I think the answer was like, we gotta get Dak Prescott some more help. And so that when they went into the draft, they looked at it like, we either want to come out with, come out of this with a lineman, or a, or a receiver. And I think if Tetero McMillan, who went eighth to the Panthers, made it to 12, like, maybe that would have been a consideration, but they were sort of looking at it as this mosaic. It's like, well, we still have, there were, I think

• 1:25:23Speaker 03

  there were a handful of receivers they were considering in trade, veteran receivers that they had studied and they had talked to teams about. And so McMillan's gone, they like Tyler Booker, they just lost Zach Martin, they draft Tyler Booker, and then on the back end, they go and make the deal for George Pickens, which here's the most interesting thing about it to me.

• 1:25:45Bill Simmons?

  I'm cracking my neck as we get ready for this discussion.

• 1:25:48Speaker 03

  So, so, so this one, this one, so the reason, one of the main reasons the Steelers got rid of George Pickens is because like, the issues with him, a lot of times have come out, come down to his role in the offense, the direction of the offense, and how much he's getting the ball, which is normal with a lot of receivers. He's very over the top with it, which makes him worse than most with it when it comes to that stuff. And so when they traded for DK Metcalf, the thing was, it was like, he plays the same position, not that, not that they're just receivers, the same receiver.

• 1:26:24Bill Simmons?

  Same running a straight line down the sideline position.

• 1:26:26Speaker 03

  The X receiver position, right? So they're both X receivers. Okay. So now you gotta figure out a way to play them together. And now George Pickens is in a contract year. So do you think if he goes through a two or a three or a four week stretch in the middle of October with say three catches? And is he going to be okay with that just because we got another receiver?

• 1:26:50Bill Simmons?

  Also, as we discussed earlier, the quarterback situation might not be to George's liking.

• 1:26:56Speaker 03

  Right.

• 1:26:56Bill Simmons?

  To say the least.

• 1:26:58Speaker 03

  So is he going to be okay? Is he going to be okay with? If he wasn't okay with it before, now in a contract year with a hundred million dollars on the line, is he suddenly going to be okay with? No, that's fine. I'm okay. DK Metcalf's on the team now. Okay. So like, that's part of the logic for the Steelers and moving off of them and saying, we're going to be better off with Calvin Austin and Roman Wilson and whoever else.

• 1:27:22Bill Simmons?

  Well, can I interject one thing here?

• 1:27:24Speaker 03

  Now, here's the thing.

• 1:27:25Bill Simmons?

  But when he started the Thursday night, that last play of the game against the Browns.

• 1:27:29Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:27:30Bill Simmons?

  When instead of trying to go for the Hail Mary, he just chose to get in a fight with the D back that he'd been waiting to get in a fight with for an hour.

• 1:27:36Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:27:37Bill Simmons?

  That to me is like, it's the beginning of the end, at least with George in Pittsburgh. That was such a weird play.

• 1:27:42Speaker 03

  So there's that, but like, and there's the lack of effort blocking sometimes, all of that, right? Like, so like, that all exists. Okay, so if, if that, if that, that whole thing was going to be the ball, be, be, be a problem in a contract year in Pittsburgh, who's one of the highest volume receivers in football as far as targets go?

• 1:28:02Bill Simmons?

  Well, C.D. Lamb.

• 1:28:04Speaker 03

  Right. So like, is this now going to be okay with him? Again, he's in a new place. He's with new offensive coaches who are in their first year truly running the offense because Mike McCarthy's gone now. And he's not getting the ball with all that money on the line. Is he suddenly going to be okay with that?

• 1:28:21Bill Simmons?

  Like, you don't think they're going to take care of him as part of this deal? Because that was my assumption.

• 1:28:26Speaker 03

  Not right now, they're not. I mean, they're going to see how it goes. And like I said, like, everything. Everything's going to be in May and June, like, like it's all, it's really easy for everybody to have their arms around each other and say, this is all going to work out in May and June. It's a little different to, to project these things in September and October. They still have the Micah Parsons thing floating around out there, too. Uh, like, and I, and I know, like, one thing that they had sort of discussed with, with George and his people was, are you comfortable going into the year without a new contract? And the answer was yes. And so like, if they go into the year, so like, but you can look at that both ways, right? Like, is it, are you going to get a super motivated guy who's going to be out to prove to everybody he's team first, maybe?

• 1:29:10Speaker 03

  I think the people in Pittsburgh would tell you what might be more likely is if he's not getting the ball a month or two into the season, you could have a problem. So that's sort of like.

• 1:29:18Bill Simmons?

  We also have a, we have a 30-year, maybe even longer, um, sample size with receivers like this who aren't getting paid or aren't getting the contracts they want, then aren't getting the ball enough and kind of how that's going to go. I just, to me, like from afar.

• 1:29:33Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:29:35Bill Simmons?

  It's just like a typical Jared Jones move, but it's a, it's another shiny new toy. It's like when, when the bark box comes for my dog every month and it's like, hey, it's a newspaper that's a squeaky toy and my dog will be excited about it for 20 minutes and then moves on to the next thing. That's how he's been in free agency almost every year. I thought they, I mean, running back to me was a way more important. They, the running backs murdered them last year. They addressed that, too. The offensive line isn't close to where it used to be.

• 1:30:01Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:30:02Bill Simmons?

  Um, and I, I don't see any scenario where they're one of the top two teams in the NFC East. So you're just going into a season knowing you're number three and maybe even worse if the Giants are a little bit better right away than people think. So I don't, I do not feel good if I'm Dallas.

• 1:30:17Speaker 03

  Yeah. And, and that division, by the way, you've seen the schedule for that division. They're playing the NFC North and the AFC West.

• 1:30:25Bill Simmons?

  So brutal. It's the worst one of all the schedules.

• 1:30:28Speaker 03

  Yeah. Yeah. So, so, I mean, it's going to be really interesting and I think a lot of it for them is counting on Brian Schottenheimer as a culture builder, that he'll be able to build the right environment.

• 1:30:37Bill Simmons?

  Oh, yeah, that'll go.

• 1:30:39Speaker 03

  I, I always go back, but I always go back to like, I, I don't like the idea of like the, the receiver that the Steelers, that Mike Tomlin is ready to get rid of, like the history of that's not great, you know? Like when, when Mike Tomlin, I mean.

• 1:30:57Speaker 03

  Back in 2015, 2016, like, did anybody think of like Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell as bad guys? It wasn't until they were gone, really, you know?

• 1:31:06Bill Simmons?

  Or disruptive in some way.

• 1:31:08Speaker 03

  They got disruptive at the end, like Bell got disruptive at the end, but it's like, generally, when, when, when the Steelers are ready to walk away from a guy for those sorts of reasons, or a guy who has that sort of background, generally, it doesn't work out for the next team that gets them.

• 1:31:23Bill Simmons?

  Dallas is, you could get, and their over under is eight and a half, playoffs not looking great. I, I, I'm, I'm down on them. What's your third thing?

• 1:31:33Speaker 03

  Derek Carr tired, which I feel like this, maybe because it happened on a Saturday, kind of like flew under the radar, you know what I mean? Like, but it's one of a number of quarterback situations. I kind of grouped this together. This is cheating a little bit by me, but the Saints, the Vikings, the Browns, like I, there are, it feels like a few teams where the quarterback situations are going to be really interesting. And

• 1:31:56Bill Simmons?

  Or macabre. What's, or, or grisly. I don't know what the right adjective is, but there's gonna be some tough ones.

• 1:32:04Speaker 03

  I mean, and I throw the Vikings, I'm hesitant to throw the Vikings in there.

• 1:32:08Bill Simmons?

  Don't be hesitant. We don't know if J.J. McCarthy coming off a torn ACL is gonna be good, who knows?

• 1:32:13Speaker 03

  And the reason, the reason I throw them in there with the other two is because the expectations are so high there. Like, if you're a player on that team, that's a 14-win team last year, like, that's not the type of team that, like, can throw the year overboard in the name of quarterback development. So, you know, what does that look like? And, you know, I, I know, like, J.J. fought through a lot last year, he lost a lot of weight, like, and he had a lot of ups and downs, like, coming back from that injury. And, you know, obviously had the second follow-up surgery, it's more of a cleanup. He's in a much better place right now, and I don't think there's a better place in the league for a young quarterback to be, especially because of what they did with their offensive line and signing Ryan Kelly and Will Fries and drafting Donovan Jackson and, you know, getting Christian Derasaw back, obviously will help a lot, but the Vikings are the

• 1:32:58Speaker 03

  one where I look at it and it's like, so much is gonna hinge. I mean, that could be a Super Bowl team if J.J. McCarthy has a great year, or the quarterback position could really hold them back.

• 1:33:11Bill Simmons?

  Plus, especially you had Cousins for a few years there, who, regardless of how you feel about him, was still a significantly above-average quarterback.

• 1:33:19Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:33:19Bill Simmons?

  Then you get Darnold for four months last year, who was excellent. And now you have a new guy who god only knows coming off ACL.

• 1:33:27Speaker 03

  Yeah. So I gotta look at those three teams. The Saints to me, I mean, like Tyler Shuck, Spencer Rattler. I mean, Jake Hander's hurt now.

• 1:33:35Bill Simmons?

  Well, can you explain the salary cap piece of it? Cause wasn't it in a weird way, a great thing that Derek Carr retired? Cause I think the Saints were gonna suck either way. So doesn't that help them?

• 1:33:45Speaker 03

  It was one of the more bizarre endings to a career I've, I've, I've seen in 20 years covering this. I mean, it started with, if you go back to the end of the season, like I think like Kellen Moore committed, but didn't really commit to Carr as the starter in, in the, in the, the, the introductory press conference. Then there were some whispers that Carr wanted to trade and some teams sniffed around that.

• 1:34:14Bill Simmons?

  They sniffed around and it smelled like sewage. They're like, oh.

• 1:34:19Speaker 03

  And, and, and then there was, and then there was, well, Carr wants a raise because to affirm like this is my team.

• 1:34:26Bill Simmons?

  Then, yeah, we gotta, we gotta confirm that. He was so good the last two years. Let's, let's give him the car keys.

• 1:34:32Speaker 03

  Then after that, then after that, they convert his contract, which basically means he's on the team without really consulting with them, which they can do. It's a contract mechanism, but it basically locked them in where it converted. It took like basically, you know, 95% of his, 98% of his salary and turned it into a signing bonus.

• 1:34:51Bill Simmons?

  So they F themselves for this season with how they did that because they didn't think this season was gonna go well.

• 1:34:58Speaker 03

  Yeah, they had that. And that restructures, that, that, that restructure pushes the cap money forward, but it basically locks him in with the team. Now, where this, where they are saved by this is that they, they, they don't have to spend that money now. Now they, they sunk a $10 million roster bonus into him and part of the separation agreement is he gets to keep the $10 million roster bonus.

• 1:35:19Bill Simmons?

  So it's a buyout.

• 1:35:20Speaker 03

  Yeah, for the most part. And now, and now they move on. And we'll see. I mean, Tyler Shuck was in college for seven years. He was at four different schools. I've actually, I've heard he has, I think it's four degrees, which is pretty wild. But like, he was, he was Justin Herbert's backup for two years at Oregon, which is, which gives you an idea how, how, how old he is. And then you have him competing with Spencer Rattler and, you know, you see where that goes and that looks like, is this a full reset? Is this a full reset year for them where they're in the mix for one of the quarterbacks next year?

• 1:35:56Speaker 03

  You know, obviously there's a quarterback who could be in the draft. I don't think he will be in the draft, but a quarterback who could be in the draft next year with a very famous last name that has ties to that organization.

• 1:36:06Bill Simmons?

  Wouldn't you say that's the number one? I could see them tanking once we get to November NFL team that we have. I can't even think of another one. That would be a bigger suspect.

• 1:36:15Speaker 03

  Yeah. I mean, like they, I'd have to think about that one. I mean, I, I don't know how many teams there are that are like just outright in that position, need a quarterback, might wind up being in that position where they're not very good. And you never know, like the way these things are gonna, gonna play out. And Kellen Moore is a first year coach, obviously can't afford for them. It's, it's hard for him to.

• 1:36:37Bill Simmons?

  They're the number one. Cause like even if you look at a team like Tennessee, they just got their quarterback. Right? So it's not like they'd be like, oh, I hope we suck. Carolina has a quarterback. Chicago has a quarterback. Cleveland would be the only other one, right?

• 1:36:51Speaker 03

  Vegas should be competitive. I think more competitive with Geno as a quarterback. So yeah, I mean, Cleveland would be the other one if that thing crashes and burns.

• 1:36:58Bill Simmons?

  Even though they just took two.

• 1:37:01Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. And the only other one I can think of is the Colts.

• 1:37:04Speaker 03

  Yeah, yeah.

• 1:37:06Bill Simmons?

  It's probably an AFC South team that will be, have the number one pick next year would be my guess. The Colts have.

• 1:37:11Speaker 03

  The Colts, the Colts, the Colts are interesting because that could be, I mean, obviously with, with new people, with a new owner, a new principal owner in charge. And then like the GM has been there now for, Chris Ballard's been there for, this will be his ninth year there. And they really haven't accomplished a ton. If he's in trouble, then maybe the coach is in trouble. It could, if things get off to a bad start there, it could get messy in a hurry.

• 1:37:36Bill Simmons?

  He's good at telling everybody how well he's doing though, Chris Ballard. It's going great. He seems like a lot of people love him and every year it's like a victory lap about how good their drafter for agency was and then, you know.

• 1:37:50Speaker 03

  Yeah, it's hard because like, I mean, like they, it really, while Luck was still a quarterback, it looked like it was really going in a great direction. And then, you know, you have this surprise retirement, two years into his time there. And that was, that's the thing is like, it had been a crutch for a while and it can't be a crutch anymore. It's been way too long.

• 1:38:11Bill Simmons?

  No, you look at that division because I think Houston's, I really liked Houston last year.

• 1:38:16Speaker 03

  So Houston's might be the not enough.

• 1:38:19Bill Simmons?

  They make me really nervous, right?

• 1:38:21Speaker 03

  Not enough people are talking about how I think Houston could bounce back in a really big way.

• 1:38:25Bill Simmons?

  Oh, make the case.

• 1:38:28Speaker 03

  So like, I think Houston, I think Houston's got a top five defense. And I think with the level of like, like the young core players like Will Anderson and Derek Stingley and, you know, they bring Daniel Hunter back and they've got like a lot of nice ancillary pieces on defense too.

• 1:38:47Bill Simmons?

  Really good coach.

• 1:38:48Speaker 03

  They've, they've, they've got the defense. Yeah, they've got the defense where they want it. And part of the reason they traded Laramie Tunsil was because they felt like the, the culture in their offensive line room was broken and that they weren't able to kind of match like the culture they built on defense on offense.

• 1:39:04Bill Simmons?

  Interesting.

• 1:39:04Speaker 03

  And so they trade Laramie Tunsil, they bring in a million different tackles to try and fix it. They draft a kid from Minnesota, they bring in Trent Brown and Cam Robinson, they just throw a bunch of darts to tackle. They bring in a new offensive coordinator from the Rams and Nick Calley.

• 1:39:18Bill Simmons?

  They take two wide receivers from the same college.

• 1:39:20Speaker 03

  Right. Who I think have a chance to be really, like, if you look at the history from that school, like a lot of guys from that school come in and produce right away. So it wouldn't shock me like as like complimentary pieces to, to Nico Collins, if those guys are playing pretty well right away. And you have CJ Stroud. I, I look at it and I'm like, a lot of people have totally forgotten about them. I think they have an elite defense. And if your problem is offense and you've got CJ Stroud to build around and you're bringing in a coordinator from the Rams, who I think is really capable and has both like the Josh McDaniels and Sean McVay background.

• 1:39:57Speaker 03

  And you play in a weak division and like as much as people thought they were not the same last year, they were down by one point going into the fourth quarter of the divisional rounded Arrowhead.

• 1:40:08Bill Simmons?

  I was just gonna, I was gonna say that. That, well, that Chiefs game is the best case for that. They're actually going to be good this year and they're a little, little closer than people think. The other case would be the division.

• 1:40:19Speaker 03

  Right, right. So like, like it's, I think we look at it like it was broken because our expectations were so high after CJ's rookie year, D'Amico's first year. And I'm, I, I just don't know that teams are looking at that. Like, I don't know if people are looking at that team enough and saying, you know what, like, there's still a lot of like really good stuff in place here. And if the young quarterback bounces back where CJ was doing incredibly high level shit in 23, like, that could be a dangerous team. Now, do they break into the Buffalo, Baltimore, Kansas City? Do they break into, to, to, to that tier? You know, Cincinnati could get back into that tier. Like, maybe, maybe not, but I, I think they're like, if you look at like the, the teams in the AFC, like, they may

• 1:41:03Speaker 03

  have the best chance to do it of the, of the teams that are right below that.

• 1:41:08Bill Simmons?

  So the division odds, do you know what their odds are for that division?

• 1:41:12Speaker 03

  Houston's gotta be, Houston's gotta be an overwhelming favorite, right?

• 1:41:14Bill Simmons?

  So that's what I thought too. Went to Fanduel, they're plus 115 when the AFC South. I don't know who else you would bet in the AFC South unless you wanted to really talk yourself into Jacksonville.

• 1:41:24Speaker 03

  I was gonna say, is there like a lot of belief in James Gladstone and Liam Cohen now? I don't know.

• 1:41:29Bill Simmons?

  Or, or is there belief that that trade might, we actually might be like, wow, Travis Hunter's like pretty good, but holy shit, they gave up a lot for that guy. He's done jumping out of my TV.

• 1:41:40Speaker 03

  I can't wait to watch him, but I just.

• 1:41:42Bill Simmons?

  Me neither.

• 1:41:43Speaker 03

  I, I think Jacksonville's problem, like, under the last regime, you know, the, and this is where I think, like, there's some cleaning up that needs to be done.

• 1:41:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:41:51Speaker 03

  Is like, they paid a lot of good players, great money. Like, there are guys, there are guys in that roster that they paid like their franchise players when they're just pretty good. And you know.

• 1:42:02Bill Simmons?

  Would you put Trevor Lawrence on that list? Cause that would.

• 1:42:04Speaker 03

  I mean, you, you could, you could. I think, you know. They they pay Walker a little to play left tackle after he played for like 15 minutes for them. Right. Tyson Campbell at corner. I mean, Christian Kirk is gone, but I think he'd be another example of that. Um, you know, like, there was just a lot of examples of like, I mean, you could even, you could even like argue that that that Walker is one of those guys. You know what I mean? Like, so like, are they just, do they just have like a collection of pretty good players and they don't have like the types of, they don't have like Houston has Will Anderson, like I said, Will Anderson, Derek Stingley, Nico Collins, CJ Stroud. I mean,

• 1:42:41Bill Simmons?

  They have an identity at least.

• 1:42:43Speaker 03

  Right. Like, how many players on Houston's roster? Like, if you rank the two rosters, Houston, Jacksonville, how many Texans would you have to go through to get to the first Jaguar?

• 1:42:52Bill Simmons?

  Oof.

• 1:42:53Speaker 03

  You know?

• 1:42:53Bill Simmons?

  Good point. All right. Well, I sidetracked you. You have two more on your list.

• 1:42:56Speaker 03

  Yep. So number four, Caleb Williams is in the news again. And this is an excerpt from, I think, our mutual friend Seth Wickersham's book. And it was, for those who missed it, before the 2024 draft, he and his dad had looked at the idea of, he and his dad had looked at the idea of forcing their way out. I guess what you would call it is pulling an Eli and had their eyes on the Vikings. And the Vikings had actually researched Caleb, too. That was the, that was, of course, the, the draft they took J.J. McCarthy in. So like, this has become like a little bit of like a firestorm in Chicago. And I think it's sort of, I think, the first signal of like, what's to come for Caleb

• 1:43:41Speaker 03

  there. And I, I think he is such a high end talent, like,

• 1:43:46Bill Simmons?

  When you, wait, when you say what's to come, you mean venom and disappointment?

• 1:43:50Speaker 03

  Well, just, no, like, just, just the level of, like, the training wheels are off. Now the excuses are gone.

• 1:43:55Bill Simmons?

  Oh, this, from a scrutiny standpoint?

• 1:43:56Speaker 03

  Yeah, like, like, now it's like, you have to start playing well.

• 1:43:59Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:44:01Speaker 03

  You know, we've seen the year two jump. I mean, this might get you excited about Drake, too, but we've seen the year two jump where

• 1:44:06Bill Simmons?

  I can't get more excited.

• 1:44:07Speaker 03

  I mean, I mean, but you look at it like Patrick Mahomes MVP of the league, um, his second year, Lamar Jackson MVP of the league his second year, Joe Burrows in the, in the Super Bowl in his second year, Josh Allen, 10 wins and in the playoffs in his second year.

• 1:44:20Bill Simmons?

  Drake May is going to be in his second year.

• 1:44:22Speaker 03

  And so, and so like you look at all of this, right? Like, and so like, is Caleb going to take that step? And I think, I think this is like a, this, this is a scrutiny that Caleb's going to be under because they fixed so many things. They drafted Colston Loveland, 10th overall, Luther Burden with their second pick. They traded for Joe Tooney and Jonah Jackson to play guard. They signed Drew Dahlman from Atlanta to play center. Um, they hired Ben Johnson, which is a huge part of it.

• 1:44:49Bill Simmons?

  They removed every excuse he had, coaching, offensive line, weapons, whatever. And see, he has everything now.

• 1:44:55Speaker 03

  He has, and, and you look at it and it's like, this is a, this now looks like they should be able to get a very clean read on what Caleb can be. And it was interesting because I did a little reporting on this last week where, um, you know, I kind of like asked around like, um, you know, what they've been working on with Caleb. And the stuff that they've been working on was really how you carry yourself as a franchise quarterback and how you, and how you have to, like the command that you have to have to be a franchise quarterback. And, you know, a couple of the examples that were brought up to me, they watched tape of him taking sacks and how long it took for him to come off the ground. And basically the point they were trying to make to him was last year was a tough year. We understand your offensive coordinator gets fired, then your head coach gets fired,

• 1:45:38Speaker 03

  your offensive line wasn't very good. We get it. It's like, but if you're lying on the ground, you know, for an extended period of time, you're not picking yourself up off the ground, that's going to resonate with the rest of the team. That's the sort of thing that's going to, and so it's like, you need to be, you need to be popping up off the ground after hits.

• 1:45:56Bill Simmons?

  Did they show them Drake, show them Drake May tapes of him popping off the ground during his 120 sacks?

• 1:46:01Speaker 03

  Probably be, probably could be a good example. Yeah. Another thing they said, but they showed, um, they showed tape like early in the game of him and the motion's coming from the right and he's looking through the left. And so like, there's little things as far as like command, like we want you to be the commander of the offense. And so I like so much of what they're doing right now is we're trying to make you the guy and we're going to give you every tool to make you the guy and we're going to tell you how you have to carry yourself as the guy. And so, um, you know, I think the expectation is he's going to take a big jump.

• 1:46:33Bill Simmons?

  This is why we spend so much time talking about this position because what works and doesn't work is so complicated and has so many different factors in it. And all the stuff you're talking about is what I believe in the quarterback position. It's not just about your arm strength. Can you move around? Like you really, you're a leader of men. You're, you have to be the most charismatic guy in the team. You have to make those guys believe in you for, you know, 12 months a year. And the guys that fail are always the guys that fail that test.

• 1:47:04Speaker 03

  I, I remember Brady saying, I remember talking to Brady about this way back when I was covering the Patriots.

• 1:47:09Bill Simmons?

  By the way, who Brady put the most thought into this out of anybody, but go ahead.

• 1:47:12Speaker 03

  And he, yeah. And he said to me, the only way I can show my toughness is availability. The, that's the only way I can, at that position, the only way I can, in this tough, in this, this game where everyone's tough. So the only way I can prove my toughness to the guys who are really out there in the trenches is to be available and to be the first one into the huddle and to be the first one up and to be available to them. And I think that was sort of the point with like, you have to be the first one to pick yourself up off the, off the ground too. Cause no matter how hard you got hit, someone's probably hurting worse than you are out there on that field. And like even like the thing about the motion, right? Like, is it gonna be like that guy who's coming, that receiver who's coming in motion, right? From your right and you're looking left? Is that guy gonna follow you after that happens? You know what I mean? Like, or he's, is he gonna see that and say, what, what is this kid

• 1:47:56Speaker 03

  doing? You know? So it's little stuff like that, that I think they're trying to do to empower Caleb and.

• 1:48:03Bill Simmons?

  That's really interesting.

• 1:48:04Speaker 03

  Yeah. And so I think like it's, it's just, I think that stuff is really, they're trying to kind of empower him to be the leader there. And I even think like the way he handled the, the, the backlash of the Seth thing. Um, I think it was yesterday, he stood up there and he just, he stood in front of the, the, the, the media and said like, look, like, he, he took, took the bullet for it. He said, look, like, when, when I was coming out, me and my dad were looking at everything. My dad, you know, as any parent would, would like just, we were just investigating all of our avenues. Once we came and visited the Bears and we got to know the organization, we felt differently about it. But of course, we looked at the history and it was. To me, it was like, he could have hid from that. You know what I mean? Like, he could have just said, I'm not talking about it. It's in the past.

• 1:48:49Speaker 03

  But the only way to kill that story is to stand up there and answer the question. So I thought that was a pretty good sign for maybe him maturing a little bit and growing into the leadership role for, I mean, what's, I mean, one of the most, I mean, that market for football, like, that's one of the, the more pressure packed markets in the league.

• 1:49:07Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, certainly among the hungriest. Yeah, if the story is true, admit it's true, and then nobody's going to talk about it anymore. It's funny, though, that a lot of the stuff heading toward that draft, when people were trying to say what they were concerned about with them, and nobody could fully articulate it. And then the way this story blew up over the last month, it's like, it's kind of what we're talking about. We know you have the talent. There's more to that position than just talent. Are you going to figure out that part? And that's it. I mean, even Anthony Edwards was taking shit during this OKC series about people didn't like how he handled the game five loss. They didn't like that. He disappeared a little bit in game four. And it's like, there's just a different spotlight of how you're getting picked apart when you become the guy.

• 1:49:49Bill Simmons?

  And that's part of how it goes. It's funny. You mentioned the getting yourself up fast thing because there's a social media video of all the hits Brady took, especially early in his career, which were, there's one, I think it's the Colts. He's running, he's scrambling on the right sideline and just doesn't see somebody. And he just gets like annihilated, like it's a video game. He gets right up like that. But he was always passionate about that, which was what was so scary about the ACL injury. Remember? Because he didn't get up that time. It's like, oh, this is bad. He's not getting up.

• 1:50:20Speaker 03

  You know, sometimes you pick up things on these things, covering them in really stupid ways. And this is one example for me. So, you know, when I was, when, when I was covering the Patriots, when I was in the beat, you know, my roommate is one of my best friends from college and he was coaching, he was a limited earnings coach at Northeastern, before they dropped football. And we were living in the North End. And so like, he and I would, would talk about all these things. And I remember him like, it was, it was awesome. Like, you know, when I, when I watched football with him, like, he would actually come and, and watch with me when I would like, watch the Patriots games over again. And he said, you know what the difference with Brady is? And I'm like, no, what would you say it is? It's like, it's that he lets the plays develop.

• 1:51:01Speaker 03

  It's like, if you watch other quarterbacks, they get rid of the ball. He is so willing to take the hit. And this was before the ACL. But he is legitimately like, watching him, he was saying to me, he's like, he is legitimately giving the receivers an extra second to get open. He is giving everything an extra second to develop because he's willing to take a hit that the other quarterback won't. You know, and I thought that was such an interesting piece of insight and I think it matches up with what you're trying to say on Brady. And I think the guys, the guys recognize that too. You know what I mean? Like the receivers recognize that too. The guys who, because that's going to help them out.

• 1:51:35Bill Simmons?

  That was the amazing thing about Drake May last year.

• 1:51:38Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:51:39Bill Simmons?

  He was always willing to hold the ball for an extra second to the point where we're like, dude, we're going to go three and 14. Like, maybe just get rid of the ball, but he didn't want to. And I think that speaks to what you were talking about.

• 1:51:50Speaker 03

  The concussion at the end of the year. Where you're getting downs. Yeah.

• 1:51:53Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. But also like Rogers last year, I didn't feel like he wanted to keep the ball. I thought he wanted to get rid of it. I don't think he wanted to take hits last year. What's your fifth thing?

• 1:52:02Speaker 03

  So I was, I had like tush push here, but I'm so freaking sick of talking about that.

• 1:52:08Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, please.

• 1:52:08Speaker 03

  I'm done with it.

• 1:52:10Bill Simmons?

  I did, well, I will say I did love the Eagles owner getting all aggro about it. I like when those guys get aggro in those meetings. And he really seemed like he was like challenging the manhood of all the other owners, which was like hilarious how he approached it.

• 1:52:23Speaker 03

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think, yeah, calling the other owners a teenager was, was, was an interesting, interesting strategy to take. I, I think, I actually think the bigger thing to come out of that meeting is the discussion on the playoff format changing.

• 1:52:38Bill Simmons?

  And let's fucking go. I was hoping you'd bring this up.

• 1:52:41Speaker 03

  So like, I don't think enough people are talking about this. When they first brought it up in the meeting in, in March, they had, they, they had probably five or six votes. So for people don't know, you need 24.

• 1:52:55Bill Simmons?

  Well, you gotta explain what the, what the big tweak they wanted to do.

• 1:52:58Speaker 03

  So they wanted, they wanted, they wanted, so you still get in the playoffs automatically if you win your division, but they want opens. But the Lions proposed open seeding. Or less, it would mean everything like, you know, you're seeded purely by record.

• 1:53:11Bill Simmons?

  But the genesis of this, explain the Vikings week 18 thing because that's, that's where this really starts.

• 1:53:17Speaker 03

  So I like, so yes, the Vikings, the Vikings in week 18 were in a war with the Lions. They, they lose their 14 wins. And now they gotta go on.

• 1:53:26Bill Simmons?

  It's the most violent game of the year, basically.

• 1:53:28Speaker 03

  Right. And they gotta go on the road and week, in, in, in the wild card round and play a Rams team that rested everybody in, in week 18.

• 1:53:35Bill Simmons?

  And, and lost what? Four, four more games than the Vikings.

• 1:53:38Speaker 03

  Like I think they had 10, I think they had 10, they were 10 and seven. Yes. They were four games worse.

• 1:53:44Speaker 03

  But I think the nuance to this is that people think this is about fairness for the league and it's not. It's about games in week 17 and week 18 being compelling. And the Rams are actually the example of why the Rams are what scare, what, what the Rams did scares the league. Because the Rams didn't have nothing to play for in week 18. If you remember, they could have played to avoid the Vikings. Like they could have been the third seed or the fourth seed. Sean McVay makes the conscious decision. It's more important that my guys get the rest than play for the third seed. So I'm going to sit everybody down. They lose to the Seahawks.

• 1:54:24Bill Simmons?

  I was on this podcast saying, I couldn't believe they're playing this this way. How would you want to have, like, this is nuts. You're going to end up playing the Vikings or the Lions? That's crazy. Why would you want to do that?

• 1:54:35Speaker 03

  So that scares the league because it paid off. And because now you have a team and, and the NFL, they're very cognizant of what's happened in the NBA. And they look at each, each of the 272 games as pieces of real estate that they can sell. So are we making those pieces of real estate as valuable as we possibly can? If you have the, the format they have now, I think is fair in a lot of ways because of the scheduling formula and the way that works. But you have these games at the end of the season now, like where it's like, screw it. Like we'd rather get the rest.

• 1:55:07Bill Simmons?

  But how does, how does the 18 game season tie into this?

• 1:55:11Speaker 03

  That's what I was going to say is like the, this is like, so they're projecting it forward and they're saying, this is going to get worse.

• 1:55:17Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:55:17Speaker 03

  Like it just worked for the Rams and this now is going to get worse. If if we don't do something about it. And so if they have open seating, like there will be more to play for at the end of the year. The problem is the scheduling formula. In the NFL, you only play 14 teams. Um, over the course of a year, of course, you play your, you know, three teams in your division twice. And you only play teams in your conference. You only play 11 teams in your conference. So the schedules are so wildly different. And I use the example of like the NFC East, right? Like, so the NFC East plays the NFC North and the AFC West this year. The NFC West plays the two South divisions.

• 1:55:57Speaker 03

  So, I mean, you could argue an 11 win season by the Eagles is more impressive this year than a 13 win season by the Niners, right?

• 1:56:07Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:56:08Speaker 03

  The Niners have played eight games against those two South divisions. So.

• 1:56:13Bill Simmons?

  It's the reason the Niners over under is like three wins higher than it seems like it should have been. Because their schedule is ridiculous.

• 1:56:20Speaker 03

  Yeah. And so like you had the the Rams COO Kevin Demoff stood up in this meeting. Um, you know, last week and basically said to the room. Guys, we need to decide what we're trying to do here. Are we trying to be fair? Or are we trying to make the games at the end of the season more compelling? And that led to like more big picture talk. Where I think the scheduling formula is going to come under some scrutiny. Are we doing this right? And I I think the scheduling, the scheduling formula, I think, is mostly fine.

• 1:56:52Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:56:53Speaker 03

  But like, that's the sort of big picture things that they're going to be looking at. I mean, was it possible that it would be fair to have every like, just have open conference? And no divisions, right?

• 1:57:05Bill Simmons?

  I don't, I don't, I do not like that.

• 1:57:07Speaker 03

  And like just, but but but if you hear will be the idea. You play, you play every team in your conference. So you have 15 games in conference. And then if you're going to an 18 game schedule, you play three games out of conference every year. I like, I don't, I'm not.

• 1:57:20Bill Simmons?

  So you would basically, you do two divisions instead of three. You play everybody in your division twice. That's 14 games.

• 1:57:29Speaker 03

  No, no, no, no, no.

• 1:57:30Bill Simmons?

  Oh, no.

• 1:57:30Speaker 03

  You, you deconstruct the divisions altogether.

• 1:57:33Bill Simmons?

  So you have a 16 team division, you'd play 15. Yeah, that's, I don't know about that.

• 1:57:39Speaker 03

  I mean, it's, it's one solution, but I, like I, but I, the point is like, I don't think they're going to do that. But the point is like, I think this is the sort of big picture thinking that's coming out of it. Like I saw, you know, on the way out of the meetings, a team president say to somebody else, you know, hey, I want to be part of the scheduling discussion. It's going to be a, a big picture topic for them over the next couple of years. And, um, I think it's going to have way more of an impact than what everybody was focusing on last year with the Eagle, last week with the Eagles.

• 1:58:06Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:58:07Speaker 03

  Because it could, you know, they could lead to some structural change in the way that all this stuff works. So I.

• 1:58:13Bill Simmons?

  Well, think about this, last year Tampa was 10 and 7, they're the three seed. The Rams were 10 and 7, they're the four seed. The Vikings were 14 and 3, five seed, and Washington's 12 and 5, six seed. So, you know, if it's within two wins, I get it because that can be really comes down to, oh, my division was way harder than yours. We had to play the other, other conference division. I think when it gets to like more than four wins, like, did they talk about the possibility of you have to be three wins better than the team you're playing in round one to have the home game?

• 1:58:46Speaker 03

  Yeah, that, that was one was like, do we have a marker where it's like, if there's a three game gap or a two game gap, then like, then, then, then that's a stipulation in there.

• 1:58:55Bill Simmons?

  Do you like that?

• 1:58:57Speaker 03

  It just feels like too arbitrary for me. I don't know. I mean, there, there was another one where it was like, you have to be plus 500. If you win your division, you have to be.

• 1:59:05Bill Simmons?

  Well, I've been saying that for 20 years.

• 1:59:07Speaker 03

  You have to be, yeah. You have to be plus 500 to, to, to get the automatic seed, otherwise you're in the pool with a wild card.

• 1:59:12Bill Simmons?

  So you have to be nine and eight or.

• 1:59:14Speaker 03

  Or better.

• 1:59:15Bill Simmons?

  Eight, seven and two, or whatever it is. You have to have some sort of over 500 record.

• 1:59:19Speaker 03

  Right. So they had, they, they, they discussed that, which I, that makes some sense to me too. I just, I, I think, you know, when you're in a league that only plays 17 or 18 games and you're not playing everybody. It's just the, the records aren't the same, the records don't mean the same thing. And so I, I don't know that there's really a simple way to, to take care of it.

• 1:59:41Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. If you go through the previous seasons.

• 1:59:45Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that like so in 2022 Tampa was eight and nine hosting the 12 and five Cowboys in round one. That's where it gets stupid.

• 1:59:56Speaker 03

  And they beat them, right?

• 1:59:57Bill Simmons?

  And by the way, they won, right?

• 1:59:59Speaker 03

  Yeah. Well, the Seahawks, you remember the Seahawks and the the beast quake game, the Marshawn game?

• 2:00:04Bill Simmons?

  That's the famous one.

• 2:00:05Speaker 03

  Right, right. So they beat the Saints. And I think if I remember right, the Saints were like 11 and five that year. It was like Breeze in the prime of his career and they had to go all the way to Seattle.

• 2:00:14Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they were like, yeah, so if it's 17 game, it's 17 game season and it's three wins higher than the other team. I kind of like that. Cause then if you're trying to make stakes for week 18, I think that's one way to potentially do it. I don't know if it solves every problem, but I thought the fact that the Rams that you made the key point earlier, the Vikings are in this absolute war.

• 2:00:37Speaker 03

  Right.

• 2:00:38Bill Simmons?

  And then they have to go play the Rams the next week who have just, you know, been on vacation basically for a week.

• 2:00:44Speaker 03

  And coming off the wildfire thing and they're playing and the game was weird in Arizona. Like the Vikings were dealing with all of these strange circumstances.

• 2:00:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, right, right.

• 2:00:52Speaker 03

  And it was like, and, and, and it, but I again, like, I think that's what scares, what scares the league is like, if that really works, that means more teams are going to consider it next year.

• 2:01:01Bill Simmons?

  Especially in 18 games, you could do it for the last two games of the season.

• 2:01:05Speaker 03

  But even that, like even this coming year, don't you think some teams are going to look at what the Rams did and say like, we need to consider that if we're locked into a playoff spot and we're just playing for, you know, a single, a single spot in the seeding.

• 2:01:18Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 2:01:18Speaker 03

  Like, maybe we are better off sitting all of our guys. And if you watch that game, you go back and watch that game, the Rams looked like they were shot out of a cannon, like it went and the Vikings looked like they were dead legged. So I think, you know, like that's, that, that's what scares the league about it. And I think it's, it's something that's going to be part of like the big picture discussion going forward.

• 2:01:38Bill Simmons?

  Can you explain to everybody in 40 seconds why we're going to 18 games? Cause you know the answer.

• 2:01:42Speaker 03

  Yeah, it's because of money. I don't need 40 seconds to explain that.

• 2:01:47Bill Simmons?

  But why would the players agree to it?

• 2:01:49Speaker 03

  Because it's eventually going to be shoved down their throat. And like, I think for the players, it's as much about like, how do we, how do we get as much as we can for it? And I would say like, my argument, if I were a player, if I were the union, what I would want is you need to get me to free agency quicker. Like you need to, instead of it being four years on rookie contracts, you need to have it be three years. Because if you think about it, like the difference between 16 and the difference between 16 and 18 games, right? That's eight more games that you've got to make it through to get to free agency over four years, right?

• 2:02:23Bill Simmons?

  Plus playoffs.

• 2:02:24Speaker 03

  And, and you're talking about the most violent game, right? Like, so that's a real thing that, you know, if I'm looking at, I'm a player, I'm like, you gotta get me to free agency quicker. The problem is, in the NFL is that the union is controlled by the older players who, is that going to be a priority for them to get a 22, 23 year old to free agency faster? Generally, historically, it hasn't been the priority for them. But I think that that's what you would, if I'm the union, like, I think that would be one of the first things I would ask for is you have to get more of my players to free agency faster. And maybe even like, you, you look at franchise tags and those sorts of things, is there a way we can loosen the reins on those as well?

• 2:03:03Bill Simmons?

  So the older players wouldn't want that to happen because they're competing

• 2:03:06Speaker 03

  Right.

• 2:03:07Bill Simmons?

  With those people in free agency. And then you have a league that 80% of the people, their careers are what, three years or less, four years or less?

• 2:03:14Speaker 03

  It's the dichotomy of the league.

• 2:03:15Bill Simmons?

  So they can't, they can't go on strike because you just lose the season and I've lost my earning power for one of the four years, basically.

• 2:03:21Speaker 03

  Right, right, right. That's exactly it. Like, that's a dichotomy of it is like, the rank and file in the NFL is making less than a million dollars a year and like, is probably going to be out of the league within a couple of years. So they've got to take every dime they can get while they can get it. And yet the guys who are controlling the negotiation are the 1% of the 1%.

• 2:03:42Bill Simmons?

  All right, we're wrapping up. So apologies to Jimmer Say and Trey Hendrickson's contract, but you do have to give me 25 seconds on Drake May, who's really the only thing I have going for me now in the Red Sox club room and Anthony.

• 2:03:56Speaker 03

  I would say the best thing I could say is like, the new staff's gotten in there. There was a lot of things broken last year. Josh's offense is pretty complex. He has worked on kind of simplifying some things. He studied the college game a bunch last year to try to make it a little more user friendly. But the best thing I can tell you, the most encouraging thing I can tell you is that they, they have not needed to like game the offense up to make it work for Drake May. He has looked like a professional quarterback in the meeting room and on the practice field at this point.

• 2:04:28Bill Simmons?

  And they got him a left tackle who's, who's already sworn to protect him with his life. Game of Thrones, Game of Thrones style, like that lady, what was her Brianna, Brianna or whatever her name was?

• 2:04:37Speaker 03

  I can't remember who it was. There was somebody who tried to top it. There was somebody who tried to top it later in the draft too, who said that they were going to lay their life down for the franchise. I, there was, I don't know if that's going to become a trend now, like who can go more Braveheart on like?

• 2:04:51Bill Simmons?

  I loved it. I, I've consumed all the Will Campbell content and I'm here for him. I love how all he wants to do is protect Drake May. That's his job in life.

• 2:05:00Speaker 03

  If you Google it, there's some really good like LSU weight room content that you'd really like.

• 2:05:04Bill Simmons?

  Like I haven't watched it. Come on.

• 2:05:06Speaker 03

  Okay. All right.

• 2:05:07Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. No, I'm in. I don't care that his arms are an inch short. I'm all in on Will Campbell. All right. So you can read it, read Albert on SI listeners podcast as well. Great to see you. Thanks for coming on.

• 2:05:17Speaker 03

  All right. Thanks, Bill.

• 2:05:18Bill Simmons?

  All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to House and Mahoney and Albert and Gahal and Eduardo. You can watch this as a video podcast on Spotify. You can watch on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel as well. Don't forget new rewatchables coming on Monday. We're doing Alpha Justice, the Steven Seagal anti-classic. This is an unbelievable movie. I can't wait for you to watch it this weekend. We will be, me and Kyle Brandt coming Monday for you on that. And then Russell and I on Sunday. Have a great weekend. I will see you on Sunday.

• 2:06:01Bill Simmons?

  Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas and affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in DC. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-887-897777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplineMA.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8HOPENY or text HOPENY in New York. This episode is brought to you by Searchlight Pictures Wild Horse 9. John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell.

• 2:06:41Bill Simmons?

  I like those guys. Star in the sharp-witted comedy thriller from Academy Award winner Martin McDonagh. Writer-director of The Banshees of Inisherin and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Set in the 1970s, filmed on location on Easter Island, Malkovich and Rockwell play CIA agents Chris and Lee who are caught in a dangerous game of secrets and survival. Also starring Steve Buscemi, another one of my guys. Parker Posey and Tom Waits. Wild Horse 9 is being hailed by critics as a revitalizing shot of pure entertainment and easily one of the best films of the year. Don't miss Wild Horse 9, only in theaters Friday. Get tickets now. This episode is brought to you by Core Power Protein Shakes. You know how we always talk

• 2:07:26Bill Simmons?

  about the little things that separate great athletes? Post-workout recovery is a big factor. Core Power Protein Shakes help you keep going after your workout with high-quality protein to build muscle and electrolytes to help hydrate. It's all you need for your recovery in one bottle. Available in 26 and 42 gram protein options to pick what works best for you. Visit corepower.com to learn more.