AI Bubble Watch: Has the Hype Gone Too Far? — ft. Josh Brown

Josh Brown, co-founder and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, returns to the show to discuss what drove the latest tech selloff and share his thoughts on whether AI has reached bubble territory. Then he and Ed break down the significance of private funds entering 401Ks and evaluate the viability of alternative assets in retirement portfolios. Finally, Josh offers a prediction for the Fed’s path forward following Jackson Hole. Subscribe to the Prof G Markets newsletter Order "The Algebra of Wealth" out now Subscribe to No Mercy / No Malice Follow Prof G Markets on Instagram Follow Scott on Instagram Follow Ed on Instagram and X Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Speaker 00

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• 0:30Speaker 01

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• 0:59Ed Elson?

  Today's number, 20. That's how many dogs participated in the World Dog Surfing Championships in Pacifica, California this month. The winner was a chocolate Labrador from Brazil named Kakao. When asked how the waves were, Kakao responded, "rough."

• 1:20Josh Brown?

  Why am I laughing at that?

• 1:32Ed Elson?

  Welcome to Prof G Markets. We are back from vacation with one of our worst jokes, possibly in history. But we're very excited about it. We've been out for two weeks. Somehow Scott is actually still on vacation. He should be coming back very, very soon. But I'm very glad to say that we have an incredible stand-in. The one and only Josh Brown, filling in for him today. So Josh, thank you very much for joining me again on Profy Markets, our very first show back. Very excited to have you on.

• 2:02Josh Brown?

  I'm so excited to be here. I wish I were on vacation, but since I'm not, this is the next best thing.

• 2:07Ed Elson?

  Did you take any vacation this summer? I think I saw some stories of you jet skiing around. I don't know where you were. Were you on vacation?

• 2:14Josh Brown?

  That's all day, every day. I'm from the south shore of Long Island. We're born on a jet ski. But I went to, I did Lake Como and Milan earlier this summer. It was pretty cool.

• 2:23Ed Elson?

  Oh, amazing. What were the highlights from Lake Como?

• 2:26Josh Brown?

  You know what? The lake itself is the only highlight that you need. The hotels are fabulous, obviously. Grand Tremesso and Pasalacqua are two of the most beautiful hotels I've ever seen. But like, you literally jump in the lake and it's crystal clear. You know, it's a mountain lake and it's pristine. And it's, it's worth the trip.

• 2:47Ed Elson?

  All right. Well, I'm glad you got your rest. Let's get into this episode. Today we're discussing the latest tech sell-off and we're also discussing why private funds are entering 401ks or might be entering 401ks. So let's get started.

• 3:04Speaker 04

  Now is the time to fly. I hope you have plenty of the power at all.

• 3:11Ed Elson?

  AI may be hitting its first real wall. An MIT study released last week found that, quote, 95% of organizations are getting zero return on their generative AI investments. Adding to the unease, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recently warned in an interview that we may already be in bubble territory. Meanwhile, Meta just announced a restructuring of its AI division with potential downsizing ahead. These reports fueled fear in the market and triggered a sell-off in US tech, sending every mega-cap stock on a multi-day decline. The Nasdaq fell more than 3% and the S and P 500 shed $1 trillion in value. So a pretty significant sell-off here.

• 3:51Ed Elson?

  We've had three main drivers for the sell-off, three main catalysts. First were Sam Altman's comments. Where in this interview with The Verge, he said, quote, "Are we in a phase where..." Investors as a whole are over excited about AI. My opinion is yes, end quote. That was really what got investors spooked. Second, we had this Meta news. It was a New York Times article about Meta. According to the New York Times, Meta is considering downsizing its AI division. And then third was this MIT study. This report from a research group at MIT called Nanda, this AI research group. And their report found, as I said, that 95% of organizations are getting zero return

• 4:35Ed Elson?

  from their investments in generative AI. So those three stories were really what set this off. That's what caused this sell off. Josh, let's just start with your reactions, your reactions to the sell off that we saw in tech last week.

• 4:48Josh Brown?

  So these things do tend to happen in threes. So I like hearing you run down that list of. No, it's, I'm not even joking. So my, my, one of my formative experiences 25 years ago was being a young retail stockbroker, trading all of the stocks related to the original dot com boom. And there were, there were literally three events that happened, all within close proximity to each other. That I don't want to say caused the top to be formed and then the subsequent 85% crash in the NASDAQ. But they were like the most notable events that happened at the top.

• 5:27Josh Brown?

  So we can argue causation, correlation, but like those specific moments, because there's an echo here to what you just laid out. The first is MicroStrategy, the original MicroStrategy, not the Bitcoin treasury we know today. Same company, same CEO, had an accounting problem. They disclosed it and it was like a $400 stock that fell 300 points. It was like shocking to, to the investor class because they were trading 50 different stocks like MicroStrategy. I think at that time it was a beat quote unquote B to B internet software provider. The professor would probably remember more of the details, but that was notable.

• 6:10Josh Brown?

  Um, within that same week or two period, this is March of two thousand. Bill Gates came out and said he wouldn't buy his own stock.

• 6:17Speaker 05

  Hmm.

• 6:18Josh Brown?

  Uh, Microsoft, he was, he was still the CEO at the time. And he was talking about how expensive valuations for tech stocks were. And he included his own, uh, his own company. Of course, nobody wanted to hear that. Um, you know, so you like, you had like these like touchstone events and you can't really point to one of them and say, that was the moment, but in hindsight, you can go back and you could be like, oh, that, you know, we should have, should have known, we should have, okay. So the things that you laid out to me don't spell a death knell for, um, the AI theme. I, I, my personal belief is we could run into the end of the decade at least, with all the momentum and the money that's been being spent, et cetera. But I think the past couple of days, stock price action in the market,

• 7:03Josh Brown?

  tells investors how over-owned this theme is. And how, and how easy it is to now spook the herd. Um, it doesn't take much. Like, a rumor of Facebook, uh, Meta restructuring, the way it's doing its AI hiring, is like enough to, you know, knock billions of dollars off all these semiconductor stocks and, um, and, and, uh, hyperscaler stocks. So I think we're like in kind of a fragile state now. And, uh, I think it's okay. Like, stocks are supposed to be volatile. Um, so the way I'm thinking, the way I'm thinking about this is, right now, if you're an investor or you're a money manager, you should not be out there hunting for your twenty-first AI stock.

• 7:48Josh Brown?

  Like, the twenty you have is probably good. And the last thing I want to say on this, if you think, um, AI is going to be transformative for society, and if you are hugely bullish on the theme, and I know most people are, and with good reason. With your next thought, you should consider the fact that everybody else agrees with you already.

• 8:10Ed Elson?

  Yeah.

• 8:10Josh Brown?

  Right? Uh, there are currently twenty AI-specific ETFs publicly traded, twenty. They all own the same stocks. They all own Nvidia. They all own Microsoft. So twenty specific ETFs and all of them have been raising money this summer. Twenty. And there are another ten that are considered AI infrastructure. So like, they also own

• 8:35Ed Elson?

  Also an Nvidia.

• 8:36Josh Brown?

  Utilities and, and power transmission lines, plus Nvidia. So you got thirty ETFs, um, that investors are using to capitalize on the AI theme. You got Nvidia sitting with a four trillion dollar market cap. Broadcom is one of the biggest stocks. That's, that's like the stock that people buy because they missed Nvidia.

• 8:55Ed Elson?

  Exactly.

• 8:56Josh Brown?

  Um, AMD is, is hundreds of billions of market cap. So like, you are not, but by professing your bullishness for AI, you're not saying anything that anyone doesn't already know.

• 9:05Ed Elson?

  Yeah. Just go, I mean, I'm glad you said that about the, the, these headlines. I read, I see these headlines and I'm, it seems like a giant nothing burger to me. I mean, I, let's just look at Sam Altman's full comment. Um, so he said, he said, quote, "Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes." And that's the part that I quoted and that's the part that the street's worried about. He then directly followed it up. He said, "Is AI the most important thing to happen in a very long time? My opinion is also yes." So, you know, he's just making a rhetorical point in an interview. To me, it doesn't say anything about his, his long-term thesis on AI. He also spoke, I mean, people are saying in the headlines,

• 9:50Ed Elson?

  I, I saw this headline on CNBC where it's like, "Sam Altman sees a bubble in, in AI." Um, but he spoke, you know, he spoke very, very generally. About bubbles. He spoke very generally about the idea that, you know, bubbles happen and people get over excited and, you know, stocks can get ahead of their skis. It's very general stuff. So to me, that I'm like, okay, whatever. Then you have the Meta news. And let me just read you the full quote from the New York Times article. It said, quote, "Meta is also looking at downsizing the AI division overall, which could include eliminating roles or moving employees to other parts of the company because it has grown to thousands of people in recent years," the people said. "Discussions remain fluid and no final decisions

• 10:35Ed Elson?

  have been made on the downsizing." So that's what they said about Meta. Again, very soft news. And then this MIT report. I do not understand this. I don't understand, since when did a small group of researchers at MIT, putting together a little research project, possibly by undergrads, I actually don't even know, since when did they become the leading authority on the adoption of generative AI? I mean, these are the kinds of numbers I see in consulting and research reports all the time. You know, these kind of broad numbers, oh, 95% of organizations, they're not seeing a return. Like, I've probably

• 11:18Ed Elson?

  seen that like a million times on the internet. And then I sort of think, okay, so MIT says that, fair enough. But isn't this exactly the kind of thing that investors on Wall Street are supposed to be tracking themselves? I mean, isn't it literally the job of the buy-side analyst to look at the companies that he or she is covering and figure out, okay, this is the return that they're getting on their Gen AI investments? I mean, this is what we're all supposed to be focusing on. And then suddenly MIT comes out and says this little research number. A few media outlets pick it up because, let's be honest, it's a fun story. And then suddenly, we see this drawdown in the NASDAQ. We see the S

• 12:01Ed Elson?

  and P lose a trillion dollars in value. And I just think it's fascinating that this is what brought down the markets. I agree with your point where it's like, you know, this indicates that there's a level of sensitivity in the markets right now, which is interesting. But I think back to a month, two months ago, you know, it wasn't a missile strike on Iran. That brought down the markets. It wasn't the president firing the chief of the BLS for supposedly falsifying national economic data. It wasn't, it wasn't even the reintroduction of tariffs. I mean, we saw, you know, some, some small corrections, but the, the level of correction that we're seeing in tech itself, it didn't really compare to this. I don't

• 12:45Ed Elson?

  understand that. How is it that it was this little obscure research report from a little division out of MIT? How is it that that spooked the markets?

• 12:55Josh Brown?

  I think it's because all of the gains in the market this year have come from the AI infrastructure theme. There's nothing, there's no other show in town.

• 13:02Ed Elson?

  Yeah.

• 13:03Josh Brown?

  Even the GLP-1 stocks have been falling, like nothing else is working. So then people say, all right, well, what are the top performing sectors this year? Utilities, tech, communication services and financial, I think financials neck and neck for the third spot. All, all of those are directly related to earnings growth that's coming from the AI infrastructure build out. The utilities is obvious. I don't need to explain it. These stocks have just undergone a once in a century rerating. They're all at 52 week highs. They all look unbelievable. And the story that they're telling investors is that they are submitting formal proposals

• 13:44Josh Brown?

  to their regulators for a rate increase. And the justification for the rate increase is the fact that they need to spend money, CapEx, in order to keep pace with the demand coming from the hyperscalers for more electrification needed to facilitate the ubiquitous use of AI. There's one particular utility called Dominion, which I wrote about recently for CNBC. Dominion is like this 100 year old company, sleepy, boring utility, right?

• 14:16Josh Brown?

  And it just so happens, they're based in a place called Loudoun County, which is the cloud data capital of the world. It's in Virginia. And the reason it's there is because a million years ago AOL was based outside of DC. And that's where like the first, they weren't calling them data centers back then. This predates even cloud computing, but like that's where the first cluster of this stuff started to be built. And then Yahoo came and then Google came. Now, Amazon has spent $50 billion there. So like this is an example of a utility that is completely transforming itself because of demands coming from

• 14:56Josh Brown?

  hyperscaler AI infrastructure. And that's why the utilities are leading the market. Tech, why tech is working, that's obvious. Why communication services is working? That's obvious. Keep in mind, Meta is in that that sector. Alphabet's in that sector.

• 15:15Josh Brown?

  Why financials? Why are financials so good? Because Wall Street came alive this year. We have IPOs. CoreWeave, Figma, Bullish, believe it or not, Circle. Like, all of a sudden, the amount of activity, private equity, private credit, underwriting, M&A is back. There are deals again. Like, that's why the financials are, but all of this is coming as a result of the AI buildout. And then the ripple effect coming. So you asked the question like, I don't understand, we were shooting at Iran and nobody cares.

• 15:55Josh Brown?

  But an MIT study and a Facebook rumor surfaced that could be negative for the AI theme. And the Nasdaq loses a trillion of value. That's, that's why. It's the whole thing. There's nothing else going on. GDP growth is sluggish. No offense to anyone who believes otherwise, or they think the data is fake. The labor market is okay, but not as good as it was last year, right? Wage, wage growth is gone. So now you have price growth. You have inflation, but no wage growth? Not a great recipe. That's probably why we're going to put a communist in the mayor's office in New York. Like, what other stories are out there? What else is happening in the economy? And the answer is nothing.

• 16:37Josh Brown?

  It's it's the high end consumer who owns stocks out there spending with abandon. The reason they're able to do so is because their portfolios are absolutely juiced by record insane amounts of capex being spent on AI. And if you pull that leg of the stool away, there's no way we would have had a 30% recovery off the liberation day lows in April. No chance, not a chance. If if you don't have that leg of the stool, there aren't two other legs. And that's what the the market is very precariously balancing itself upon.

• 17:12Ed Elson?

  Well, I think that that really sums it up. And I think that is possibly what I think that is probably what is most concerning is it does emphasize the extent to which the entire market is dependent and relying upon this AI story. And so, yeah, an MIT report comes out and suddenly people get very nervous. I mean, by the way, I'm almost shocked by the lack of conviction that that investors seem to have. The fact that this report comes out and then they say, oh, our thesis is wrong. That, to me, is a little bit crazy.

• 17:47Josh Brown?

  Well, in fairness, in fairness, we're talking about a 2% move. But the Nasdaq has like tripled in in recent years. It's not

• 17:57Ed Elson?

  They haven't reversed their their their opinions, but there has certainly been a vibe shift in AI in the last two or three days.

• 18:04Josh Brown?

  I agree.

• 18:04Ed Elson?

  We're seeing it in the markets. We're also seeing it online chatter. People saying, oh, is the AI story? Is it? Is it not going to happen?

• 18:10Josh Brown?

  The Sam Altman thing is notable, but I think people don't understand what he's saying. He's not saying there's a bubble in AI. He's saying there's a bubble in other people investing in things that might compete with him.

• 18:22Ed Elson?

  Yes.

• 18:23Josh Brown?

  He's still gonna raise money in the private market at a $500 billion market cap. You know he is. He's gonna, he'll break every record on the books for a privately held company that only two years ago was like a not-for-profit. He's gonna raise money at a half a trillion dollar valuation. So what he's basically saying is he sees a lot of other people funding things that could represent a challenge to ChatGPT and other products at OpenAI and they're destined to fail. Um, and that's, that's, that, read between the lines, that, what he's basically saying is we own this. And, uh, all these other valuations people are paying for other startups are, uh, are gonna look foolish.

• 19:05Ed Elson?

  Right.

• 19:05Josh Brown?

  He's not gonna say it the way I'm saying it, but that's what he means.

• 19:09Ed Elson?

  Yeah, no, I think that's definitely right. But, uh, just going back to what you, what you say there about the, the reliance, the dependence in the markets on AI. Just some, some data here. So the top 10 stocks in the S and P right now account for 40% of the entire market cap of the S and P. 25% of the entire, uh, earnings of the S and P. Nvidia alone makes up 8% of the S and P. It's the largest single stock concentration in over 40 years. We've seen this just unbelievable capex spending, you know, leading AI companies spending at 10x increase in capex in the past three years.

• 19:51Ed Elson?

  This is basically the AI market. This is the entire stock market. This is all that anyone cares about. And I, I, I, I just, as, as a money manager yourself, I mean, how are you supposed to kind of defend against that? You can't just get off of the AI train. There's clearly a bunch of AI hype that's happening. And that's sort of what Sam Altman is alluding to a little bit. But how are you supposed to sort of protect yourself and, and keep those two things in, in your head at the same time? One, yeah, of course we've got to invest in AI. AI is the next thing. Two, at the same time, what does it mean that this MIT report is, is, is shaking investors' confidence at least a little bit?

• 20:31Josh Brown?

  I think Palantir is a really powerful example of the case that we make with our clients. And, and just to back up. Um, we're not bears on AI. And, uh, you know, we're, we've been invested in this theme the entire way up. Uh, obviously, these are some of the biggest stocks in the world. I've been bullish and talking about Nvidia and long Nvidia personally for 11 years now. So like, I'm not, I don't want to give people the impression that I'm like predicting a crash. Um, but we're very sober when we talk to clients about the possibility that there could be a hiccup along the way or something worse. And, you know, we preach diversification, which seems really quaint right now.

• 21:13Josh Brown?

  But, um, like fanny packs, it will come back into style eventually. It always does. Uh, it could be many, many years between now and when that happens. Um, we're managing, uh, six and a half billion dollars for over 4,000 families. And people have a lot of money at risk in the stock market. Um, with good reason, people are going to have very long lifespans and they need to earn above inflation returns. And our job is to help people, um, you know, get from A to Z and Z could be a long way off. So we have to take risk. We have no choice. Um, but we want to take intelligent risks. I was talking to a client yesterday, um, extraordinarily wealthy, uh, person, very successful,

• 21:57Josh Brown?

  uh, way more successful than I am. Um, but one of the things that we're talking about, you know, he's saying, look, I understand, diversify, et cetera, but it seems like none of these other stocks matter anymore. And he had a really good point. I remember a time where like Target would report earnings. The markets would almost shut down because everybody would want to hear what the CEO had to say about the outlook and the consumer and but no one even, no one even notices anymore. There, there were times where like McDonald's and Home Depot and like these were like bellwether. Like what, what is the state of the consumer? Let's tune in and listen. These earnings reports in the last week, they just, they come and go.

• 22:40Josh Brown?

  Um, because they're not the thing that's driving earnings. When you talk about the size of the hyperscalers in the S and P 500, like what percent they make up. Um, proportionally, the earnings growth is even bigger. The earnings growth is coming from a very select group of stocks. They happen to be so gigantic that it's meaningful for the overall index. And then you start talking about like, oh, Freeport-Mackay is a bellwether for copper demand and nobody gives a shit. I don't even think its market cap is 20 billion. So like, it almost doesn't matter. The, the amount of, the amount that Nvidia's market cap moves in a day is larger than 400 companies in the S and P 500.

• 23:24Josh Brown?

  So, so what people say like, oh, the, the, try to connect the dots, the stock market, the economy. From my perspective, they've never been further apart. So I don't think the main street economy is bad. I just don't think it looks anything like what the S and P has done over the last couple of years and that people struggle with that disconnect. Um, so our message, you know, to get to the, the answer to your, your question in a very roundabout way, but our message, Ed, is the market that we're in right now is not the market that we're always going to be in. This year, the factor with the most import to returns is momentum. Fine, we all understand that, but that's not every year.

• 24:06Josh Brown?

  Some years it's dividend yield, some years it's balance sheet quality, some years it's competitive moat. Some years it's, it's value, some years it's, it's a size factor and small cap does better than large cap. It's been a minute, but it happens. The, the purpose of maintaining diversification is you always have to say you're sorry, but you also never have to say you're sorry. You, you are not going to be able to race Nvidia and Broadcom with a portfolio year after year and not eventually pay the, the, the penalty. So I mentioned Palantir. This company put up one of the most insanely good earnings reports I have ever seen. I'm doing this 28 years, insane on every metric.

• 24:48Josh Brown?

  The rate at which they're adding corporate customers, the rate at which they're adding government contracts, the the growth of cash flow, the growth of profit, the growth of profit margin. It you look at this report and then the CEO comes on the call and he's like, fuck you to the haters. Li- literally, that's what he did. The stock has now erased the entirety of its post earnings pop. It had this massive move where like Down like 10%, right? Something crazy there. So like every growth manager who owns stocks and didn't own Palantir, basically had to buy it that day or get fired, right? And then like within a week, that entire post earnings pop disappears. What is the message?

• 25:33Josh Brown?

  The message is, yeah, we already know how good AI is. We already get it. We already know how good Palantir is. That's why it's a $400 billion market cap on revenue of $4 billion. We get it. Everybody gets it. There's no one left to figure it out. So that's really what we're trying to get across to clients. It's not saying we're bearish on AI. It's just like, dude, how much more do you think could possibly be in the tank? Given that everyone agrees. But I I think some people would say that sounds like a little bit like a bubble. It is a bubble, but it could be, but but it could be 1997. It doesn't have to be March of 2000 yet. Of course, it's a bubble.

• 26:19Josh Brown?

  Every there's a capex bubble every generation. It's not that rare. It's not that unique. We we we had them in the 50s. We had them in the in the 60s, in the 70s, but it it always happens. It's happening again. No big deal. It's it's not a signal to sell everything and hide. Um, not every capex bubble has to result in a generational crash. You could just have a bear market follow this. And what if it starts three years from now? Think of all the money that you you are missing out on making worrying about it's a bubble. It's not a bubble.

• 26:52Ed Elson?

  The answer remaining that that the diversification is key. I I assume is is basically where you ultimately land. But again, it's an interesting thing because a lot of people, as you say, these days is saying, well, diversification is for losers. You might as well be in the S and P ten.

• 27:10Josh Brown?

  If I listen, I have some clients where if I listen to them, their portfolio would be like thirty percent Nvidia, thirty percent Palantir.

• 27:16Ed Elson?

  They'd be crushing it.

• 27:17Josh Brown?

  And by the way, they they would have, they would have won big. Um, the the problem is, what does that look when this ends? What does that look like? And I I want to say one thing about the bubble idea. Uh, and then we can move on. The two thousand bubble burst. It's real, it's really important. I was talking to a venture capitalist who was about my age. We both had roughly the same uh experience when we when we started in the nineties. Um, there were, it was about, uh, I don't know, let's call it four hundred fifty billion in market cap in this in the stocks uh that that we tend to identify with the two thousand bubble. Like, it was not large, four hundred fifty billion in market cap.

• 27:59Josh Brown?

  The combined profits of all of those companies was like fifteen billion. It was, it was tiny, like literally tiny. OpenAI is going to do like fifteen billion dollars in profit this year alone by itself. And when you look at the revenue of the companies involved today and the market cap and the amount of employees and the amount of customers, it's literally night and day. We're back then, we'll forget about price to earnings ratio. These were companies that were pre-revenue. No revenue, no business model. You can't say that today. These companies are among the most successful companies of all time on every metric. Tons of revenue, tons of earnings, tons of uh growth.

• 28:43Josh Brown?

  So it's it's not a great analog. Um, back then, there were two hundred million internet users. There are 7 billion internet users right now. It's a completely different world. So I don't love the comparison for that reason.

• 28:58Ed Elson?

  And it's almost too easy of a comparison. Everyone's trying their best to figure out how do we make the analogy? And that's kind of when you know, okay.

• 29:06Josh Brown?

  It's too easy. It's too easy. Yeah.

• 29:08Ed Elson?

  We'll be right back after the break. And if you're enjoying the show so far, be sure to give Prof G Markets a follow wherever you get your podcasts.

• 29:22Speaker 00

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• 29:53Speaker 01

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• 30:23Speaker 06

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• 30:57Ed Elson?

  We're back with Prof G Markets. Trump has signed an executive order that could reshape how Americans invest for retirement. The order tells regulators to update the rules for 401ks so that they can include alternative assets like crypto, private equity and real estate. Supporters say the move could unlock fresh capital for the private markets while also opening the door for Americans to gain exposure to investments that they are typically locked out of. So this executive order actually happened a couple of weeks ago. I've been on vacation, so that's why we haven't really covered it, but it is important. It essentially means that your 401k manager, so you know, for us, it's a manager called Empower.

• 31:40Josh Brown?

  So that's a 401k administrator. So you have the plan sponsor, which is the company that you work for.

• 31:46Ed Elson?

  Yes, please.

• 31:47Josh Brown?

  And then you've got the administrator, which is effectively like the platform that you log into to make your investments.

• 31:53Ed Elson?

  Yes, and those platforms can now offer alternative investments. So private equity, private credit, even digital assets like crypto. And there are $9 trillion in retirement accounts in America today, and 90 million Americans have some form of retirement account. So this is a big deal for private market investment. It's basically opening it up to $9 trillion in capital. And so I think this is relevant for a lot of reasons, one of which is we've been talking a lot on this show about this idea that retail investors are increasingly locked out of

• 32:35Ed Elson?

  investment opportunities that are reserved for private investors, institutional investors, accredited investors. We've talked about that as well. And you know, I've talked about the idea that you've got OpenAI, which is being valued at half a trillion dollars, most valuable private company in history. And yet, if you're a regular investor, if you're a retail investor, you can't get in. So that's, that's kind of another talk track, but it's certainly related. It's also relevant because you wrote an article about this new executive order on your blog page, Downtown Josh Brown.

• 33:11Ed Elson?

  Josh, give us your reactions to the executive order. A lot of people are saying this is going to open up the opportunities for retail investors. Now they can get into alternative assets. And there are other people saying, no, this is, this is going to sort of expose retail investors to all of the risk and the craziness that exists in the private investment world. Plus, Trump was being lobbied by all of these private investment groups.

• 33:37Josh Brown?

  Yeah, all right. I think it's a really big deal for the private equity and private credit industry. I think it's a nothing burger for investors.

• 33:46Josh Brown?

  I actually, there's no danger here. The danger is like lagging returns because you're going to take a portion of your 401k. You're going to allocate it into some high fee private equity fund. You're going to lock up that portion of your money, which is already locked up anyway. You're sitting with a 401k for decades anyway, so that's not a big deal. So you're giving up liquidity, but who cares? Because it's not liquid for you anyway. All right, so I could see that people saying that's a negative. I don't really view it that way. I think the longer you hold investments, the better personally. So I don't know that that's definitely a negative in a 401k. So put that hysteria aside. The other thing people will say is like, oh, you're exposing people to new, you're at risk anyway.

• 34:31Josh Brown?

  When you cite Nvidia is 8% of the S and P 5. Well, what do you think America owns in their 401k? They're already at great risk. They already are overloaded in gigantic technology stocks in the midst of a capex bubble. So it's like, it's not like, oh, now all of a sudden they're at risk. Stocks are risky. They're inherently risky. Here's a fun fact. I don't mean to name drop. I was talking with a legendary investor, Peter Lynch, considered to be the GOAT. Literally, literally.

• 35:04Ed Elson?

  Name drop.

• 35:04Josh Brown?

  I was talking.

• 35:05Ed Elson?

  Love it.

• 35:05Josh Brown?

  Fine, whatever. I'm owning it.

• 35:07Ed Elson?

  You own it, exactly.

• 35:08Josh Brown?

  I'm dropping that name. I'm picking it back up. I'll drop it again. Peter Lynch asked me a question. He stumped me. He said, do you know what the average range of a New York Stock Exchange stock is over the course of a year? And I was like, the average range, like, like how much from the high to the low? And I said, like 30%. He goes, okay, 90% of people say 30%.

• 35:35Josh Brown?

  It's a hundred, he said, he said, Josh, it's a hundred percent.

• 35:38Ed Elson?

  What?

• 35:39Josh Brown?

  And, and I, I said, what do you mean? He said, well, just think about it. A stock starts the year at twenty, drops to fourteen, rallies to twenty-eight. That's a hundred percent, uh, range.

• 35:50Ed Elson?

  Yeah.

• 35:51Josh Brown?

  It's not linear, it doesn't like go in the direct, you know, it doesn't go all in one direction. It doesn't, the average stock doesn't double or get cut in half.

• 35:59Ed Elson?

  Yeah.

• 36:00Josh Brown?

  So like the, he said, people don't even understand the basic, the basics of how volatile the stock market is. So I bring that up to you so I could drop a name. No, I bring that up to you, Ed. Because the, uh,

• 36:11Ed Elson?

  What does that have to do with anything, huh?

• 36:13Josh Brown?

  Pu- public stocks are volatile.

• 36:16Ed Elson?

  Yes.

• 36:16Josh Brown?

  So private equity, which is just privately owned companies, that volatility is not like this new dimension of risk. Okay? So the hysteria around this is, is, is not necessarily founded. Um, the last thing is, is actually really important.

• 36:34Ed Elson?

  Yeah.

• 36:34Josh Brown?

  Um, for, for the people listening to this, everyone pay attention to me. Uh, I hope you already have it. This is really important. You're not forced to do anything. You, no one's gonna like shove private equity down your throat. They might include it as a sleeve in a target date or a life cycle fund. But it's gonna be tiny. You won't even know it's there and you can opt out of it if you don't want it. You could say, well, I'm not buying that life cycle fund because it has private equity. And I read something about the high fees of private equity funds and I don't believe in it and I'm, I'm, I'm opting out.

• 37:11Ed Elson?

  Yeah, but that, that, that's, those are the listeners of this show.

• 37:14Josh Brown?

  That's your own choice.

• 37:14Ed Elson?

  Those are the people who kind of know what they're doing. I mean, I said, certainly gonna be a lot of people who don't really know what any of this means. But, but the, the administrator is gonna say, oh, you gotta get into this. This is the, this is the greatest thing since sliced bread.

• 37:26Josh Brown?

  You won't, alright, so you, you, yeah, you won't hear that from an administrator because none of them want to get sued. And that's one of the interesting things I wrote about. That, I agree with you, Ed. That's not a good thing. If, um, if plan sponsors start pounding the table to their employees, why they should allocate to private equity. That's problematic, but there's no incentive for them to do that. So it's not, I don't think it's a real danger. Um, what's, what's actually gonna happen is, These will be, these will be very large providers like Blackstone and Vanguard and huge private equity firms and they'll create specific vehicles meant precisely for this 401k

• 38:07Josh Brown?

  use case. So you are not going to be investing alongside people that traditionally invest in private equity. They're going to create like a kiddie pool for you. I'm not saying it's going to be bad. I'm just saying, don't think you're investing with Mark Cuban. You will 100% or not. Those people are getting into the top, top, top, top funds. That is not going to be available through Vanguard and Fidelity. It's just, it's, you can't, why would they? If you're an amazing private equity investor, why would you be looking to take in retail flows? It makes no sense. Nobody would do it. So I don't think this is that big of a deal and I don't think that many people are going to be into it. The crypto stuff will probably attract an

• 38:52Josh Brown?

  audience faster. Young workers who see an option to put 10% of their 401k into a Bitcoin fund, they're going to do it. 100% they're going to do it. The venture thing is really where we get silly. So you kind of interchangeably, we're talking about OpenAI and private equity. To be very clear, like venture capital opportunities do not belong in a 401k. Just it's, it's like the ultimate asset class mismatch. There is absolutely no reason for there to be shares of privately held experimental companies with no earnings and revenue. The, the

• 39:32Josh Brown?

  odds of that working at scale are zero. The nature of, of venture capital is like one out of 50 companies turns into something and one out of 100 can outperform regular stock market. It's like. Very, very difficult odds. It's a very specialized market where the practitioners um know what they're doing. You can't export that into a mutual fund wrapper and throw it into, you know, an insurance company's 401k. So I don't like that at all. I don't think it's necessary. Um, so in summation, you will see private credit be substituted for some public bonds.

• 40:14Josh Brown?

  You will see private equity be substituted for some of the equity portion. It'll be minor. Very few people will actually be interested. I don't think anyone's going to be massively hurt by it. Venture capital in a 401k is fucking stupid. And um Bitcoin is probably going to attain some real uh fund flows, just given how much young people are attracted to being invested in crypto.

• 40:38Ed Elson?

  I find it interesting that venture capital is sort of off the table. It's too silly in your view, but Bitcoin you don't seem to have, or crypto you don't seem to have the same view.

• 40:48Josh Brown?

  I'm not endorsing people do this, but I I think it's uh, I think it's just an easier, it's an easier rollout into a product at a 401k than venture capital would be. How, how does a, so you could have an existing mutual fund, and some of the large asset managers do this, where they have a sleeve in their portfolio for pre-public, uh, pre-IPO venture-backed startup. I'm okay with that. But like, you can't invest into Andreessen Horowitz in a 401k, because they're not going to give you the access to be able to do so. So like, just, you're not going to get the best of the best. And in venture capital, you have to be in the best funds.

• 41:32Josh Brown?

  You can't be the fourth best fund. It's, there's just no way. Um, so I think that's like a very winner-take-all type of investing. Bitcoin is a commodity. One Bitcoin is as good as another Bitcoin, and a Bitcoin fund doesn't need a manager. So that's where I would draw that distinction.

• 41:51Ed Elson?

  Okay. Well. I'll lay down my my views on this. So I think this has been sort of portrayed as, oh, we are democratizing access to alternative investments. That's that's been the pitch. That really has been

• 42:05Josh Brown?

  I know.

• 42:06Ed Elson?

  And and that's the part that I really find a little annoying. And I think it's especially annoying because I've been I've been talking a lot about this, about how the the private markets have been getting so big, and there's so much money now that they are essentially acting as if they are the public markets. There's basically no incentive to IPO if you're an OpenAI, or if you're a Stripe, or if you're a Databricks at this point. If you're a big venture backed company, and as you say, with massive profits, massive revenues, you're well on your way. It used to be that you go public to get some liquidity. You don't really need to do that anymore. The liquidity is there

• 42:46Ed Elson?

  in the private markets. And what it essentially means is that if you want to get in on AI, you only have your Nvidia's and your big tech stocks to choose from in the public markets. You can't invest in OpenAI and Anthropic and all of these other AI startups that honestly, that's where the actions kind of happen, at least on the consumer side.

• 43:09Josh Brown?

  The 401k, though, is not the answer to that problem.

• 43:12Ed Elson?

  Well, so so fair enough. And this is this is part of my issue here. So the way that this has been presented is that now you have access through your 401k. And by the way, I agree, the 401k is not where you should be putting that money. But I also think there that should be a distinction here. There's a huge difference between investing in a private fund versus investing in a private company. If you want to go invest in a private company with some some leftover money that you have, I think that would be great. And the big difference between those two things is, you know, one is autonomy. I mean, you're kind of just letting these these money managers decide what they're going to invest in. And as you say, these these venture funds

• 43:57Ed Elson?

  that are going to go in these 401ks are probably going to be ridiculous. And two, the other big thing is the fees. I mean, You're going to be paying stupid fees for these funds that, as you've pointed out in the past, don't even perform well. I mean, I think one thing that you brought up in your article is that actually the stock returns on the top private equity companies, I love this, the stock has outperformed their own funds.

• 44:21Josh Brown?

  People hated this. People hated this so much. Let's take Blackstone as an example.

• 44:28Ed Elson?

  Yeah.

• 44:28Josh Brown?

  This is, this is one of the best performing stocks in the, in the S and P financial services sector. It actually, when it came public, it wasn't a corporation, it was a partnership. And they changed the structure because a lot of funds couldn't own it as in, as a, as a partnership structure. They, they have to invest in corporations. So all of these companies, KKR, Blackstone, they did these conversions and now they're all in the S and P 500. I think Blackstone's up 1,800% since it came public in 2007. And that's including the stock probably losing like 60% of its value during the, the 2008 crash. So this has been a runaway winner. I can promise you, Blackstone doesn't have a single fund, private

• 45:13Josh Brown?

  credit or equity that has done as well as its stock price has. At least I don't, at least I'd be shocked, I really don't think so. I know the average fund is not. So what we did, my research partner Sean and I, is we took the universe of the top 10 publicly traded private equity and private credit funds. And you know all the names, it's Aries, it's Apollo, it's Carlyle. These are amazing companies, by the way. But we took the top 10, we market cap weighted it, and then we equal weighted it, just to make sure that we weren't being unfair. We compared it to Bloomberg has a P E index benchmark. And I'm sure people will complain about what's in it, but effectively, it's the best way

• 45:56Josh Brown?

  we know of to track the returns of private equity funds. So basically, we raced the sponsors themselves, like the companies that launched the funds, their publicly traded stock prices versus the products they sell. And the results are hilarious. So if you had invested in the market cap weighted basket of the top 10 private equity companies, invested in their stocks, the hundred dollars turned into 264 dollars going back to 2022. If you had put the money into the Bloomberg PE Index Benchmark, let's just assume that's like an approximate of the average of all their funds, a hundred dollars would have turned into 113 dollars. So it's like not even like you almost can't even see.

• 46:41Ed Elson?

  To put it in percentage terms, the funds returned 4% per year, the stocks returned 38%.

• 46:48Josh Brown?

  Yes, now, is it fair? I'm just using the last three years? No, and I don't, I don't know what the next three years will be. Maybe it'll be the opposite, but it struck me, why be a player in the casino when you can own a piece of the casino and let other people try to pick private equity funds to invest in? So I just thought that was an interesting way to think about it.

• 47:10Ed Elson?

  Yeah, and I think it's indicative of the point, which is, I think unanimously understood at this point, which is that these funds, net of fees, are not very good. They, I mean, you compare them to the S and P, the S and P consistently, I don't know if there's really been a 10-year span in the history of the stock market where the S and P has underperformed these P funds, maybe in the early days of private equity.

• 47:36Josh Brown?

  In the early days, like if Mitt Romney was your private equity manager at Bain Capital in 1993.

• 47:45Ed Elson?

  You got it all day on the Bistro.

• 47:46Josh Brown?

  Yeah, their returns are amazing. Like, I read Steve Schwarzman's biography last year. It's incredible what these people have done. I'm friendly with Harvey Schwartz at Carlyle, I interviewed him for my podcast.

• 47:59Ed Elson?

  Boom.

• 48:00Josh Brown?

  Well, I'm saying like, I revere these people, I think they're amazing, but that doesn't mean that an individual investor needs to own a product necessarily in a 401k. Like, if the goal is long-term compounding equity returns, I think the stock market's good enough. That's, that would be my comment.

• 48:23Ed Elson?

  We'll be right back. If you're enjoying the show so far, hit follow and leave us a review on Prof G Markets.

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• 50:10Ed Elson?

  We're back with Prof G Markets. The final thing that I've been thinking a lot here about is this distinction between the private markets and the public markets, which in my view, the distinction is becoming increasingly blurry. I don't know if you agree with that. Yeah, it's true. I mean, the private markets are functioning pretty much like the public markets and...

• 50:34Ed Elson?

  You know, I just think it's, I think it's a shame that this is happening because I think it's a shame that we're not having more companies, more strong, growthy AI companies that are, that have really proven themselves. They're not going public. And I'll just put it flat out. I want to invest in OpenAI. I want to invest in all the AI startups.

• 50:55Josh Brown?

  Or they are coming public, but once all of the money has already been made.

• 50:59Ed Elson?

  Exactly.

• 51:00Josh Brown?

  Coming public at a full valuation.

• 51:02Ed Elson?

  And that's a shame. And, and I, and my issue is, I think a lot of people saw this headline. They said, well, this solves the problem. You can get in. It's like, no, no, no. I can get in in some bullshit basket and, and pay one to 2% in fees per year and then pay the 20% in the carriage.

• 51:20Josh Brown?

  I was gonna say, if there's a venture capital fund that's like actively courting people in their twenties and thirties that are not like sent to millionaires, you probably don't really want to invest there. The best way to get in early on, on a hot venture-backed private, private company that then goes public is to work there and be paid in part with RSUs or ISOs, some sort of stock, stock option. That's the best way. The second best way is to be like the college roommate of the guy that founds Uber. Like, that's a really great way. And I'm saying this like half facetiously, but like, at the end of the day, life is not

• 52:03Josh Brown?

  fair. I, don't you think everybody wishes that they had the ability to invest in Facebook in, in 2006? Like, obviously, everybody, it's just, it's not going to be democratized because the wealth of the world is not democratized. It sucks. Get mad about it. Start a band. Put on eyeliner. What, you know what I mean? Like, what do you, what do you want me to tell you? Like, it's, it's not gonna be fair. It's never gonna be fair. So.

• 52:28Ed Elson?

  It's become increasingly unfair is what I would say. It's, it's gotten, it's gotten a little out of control.

• 52:35Josh Brown?

  One thing that's true, one thing that's true, Ed, and one, one reason that's true.

• 52:38Ed Elson?

  Yeah.

• 52:39Josh Brown?

  People, people talk about the small cap premium in the stock market, which has vanished. But there used to be this concept that small caps offered better performance than large caps over time. And there were all these reasons for it, like growing earnings off of a smaller base and the multiple increasing as companies become more well known. Like, there are a lot of good, that's vanished. And people don't understand why it vanished. The reason is, the best young growth companies no longer come public as small caps.

• 53:08Ed Elson?

  Exactly.

• 53:09Josh Brown?

  They come public, they come public with twenty billion dollar valuations. They go right into the S and P.

• 53:15Ed Elson?

  This is my point.

• 53:16Josh Brown?

  Right.

• 53:16Ed Elson?

  Five hundred billion dollar valuations. OpenAI is, is nineteenth most valuable company in the world. It's a private company.

• 53:23Josh Brown?

  And ten people benefited.

• 53:25Ed Elson?

  Exactly.

• 53:26Josh Brown?

  I know, I got it.

• 53:27Ed Elson?

  And my point to you, Josh, is that's new, that's new. And, and I, I, I do believe it is unfair. And fair point, you know, I'm complaining, go start a band, go, go work for OpenAI if you really want to. Maybe I fucking will, maybe I'll be their podcast. But, but, uh, my point is, w- we, the young people, the retail investors can't get in. And I just want to say this because it happened while I was on, on break. There was a, a Business Insider article that came out about this at this point that I've been making. Specifically about how all the best companies are staying private and kind of the shitty companies, sans maybe Figma are going public. And, and so we're frozen out.

• 54:05Josh Brown?

  I disagree with that. I, I disagree with that premise. I don't think it's all shitty companies going public, but okay, continue.

• 54:12Ed Elson?

  Okay. Uh, less impressive companies, maybe I'm being too harsh.

• 54:16Josh Brown?

  Well, remains to be seen who's impressive. You need a little bit more seasoning. Uh, you need a little bit more time for these, for these companies to see which are the good and which are the bad.

• 54:26Ed Elson?

  We'll, we'll table this one and then you and I will get, again, I get into an argument about this later because we do need to get through this. I just want to cover this one point. Joe Weisenthal, uh, podcaster, Bloomberg journalist.

• 54:39Josh Brown?

  Shout to Joe, that's my boy.

• 54:40Ed Elson?

  I, I like the guy. He came at me on Twitter. He, he posted this article, he said, "The way people talk about wanting to get access to hot private companies drives me crazy, riddled with hindsight bias and other biases." I just want to say, Joe. Uh, you gotta at me next time. I mean, he screenshotted the article at Elson, at Elson, at Elson. I hear people talking about this. It's clearly, it's me talking about it. So he's gotta at me next time.

• 55:06Josh Brown?

  That's a vicious subtweet.

• 55:08Ed Elson?

  It's vicious.

• 55:09Josh Brown?

  Where he screen grabs your quotes in an article he doesn't like. That's like, that's, that's a very aggressive.

• 55:16Ed Elson?

  I don't know why he's coming at me.

• 55:18Josh Brown?

  You and Joe, you and Joe, if you guys, if you guys spend time together, you guys actually would probably be friends. Uh, Joe is awesome.

• 55:24Ed Elson?

  I totally agree. Um, but we're gonna have to get over this boo.

• 55:28Josh Brown?

  I'm gonna connect you guys behind the scenes after this. I'll do it. I got it.

• 55:32Ed Elson?

  Okay, thanks, Josh. Let's take a look at the week ahead. We'll see fresh inflation data from the personal consumption expenditures index for July. We'll also see consumer confidence for August. And Nvidia is reporting earnings on Wednesday night. Now, we're recording this just before the Jackson Hole summit where, where Jay Powell will be speaking. But a lot of stuff going on in Fed land. Specifically, Trump asking one of the Fed governors to resign. We're seeing more pressure on the Federal Reserve. Uh, any, any thoughts on what's happening with the Fed right now, Josh? And perhaps any predictions maybe on interest rates? Or what's gonna happen in terms of the, uh, the Fed governorship?

• 56:17Ed Elson?

  What's, what's, what's going on here with the Fed?

• 56:19Josh Brown?

  All right, on Wall Street, this is being characterized as Powell's last stand. Meaning this is conceivably his last Jackson Hole address. If you believe the president's rhetoric on Twitter, this guy's out of here, uh, when his term ends in May, if not sooner. So this is really his chance, I think, to cement his legacy rhetorically, um, on the, on the, at, at the podium. There's a lot of people who think he's gonna use this as an opportunity to reassert the, the need for there to be an independent Fed and to do something that's somewhat politically charged.

• 56:56Josh Brown?

  I actually am predicting I would go the other way. I think this is gonna be more of like, I don't wanna say victory lap, but like, uh, I think he's gonna signal that September, we're getting a rate cut because the Fed has given it so long and has done what it had to do. The big debate in the Fed minutes that came out this week, um, some of the, uh, some of the, the committee believe that the risk is to the upside, meaning higher inflation, stickier inflation. And then some believe the risk is actually to the downside because the labor market by some metrics is weakening. Um, so there's, there's not agreement in the committee. It's not like they all think one thing.

• 57:38Josh Brown?

  And you had two dissenters on the Fed's last FOMC where they chose not to cut rates. You had two dissenters who thought they should have. So, uh, and that's, you know, it's not that rare, but it's rare enough that it's worth mentioning. So I think the Fed is not gonna give a politically, I think, uh, Powell is not gonna give a politically charged speech. I think he's gonna give us a dovish hint and then in September he'll follow through with maybe 25 basis point rate cut. And, uh, I actually think he's aiming to cool down the temperature, not, um, you know, uh, stick his chin up and say, come, come fuck with me.

• 58:16Ed Elson?

  Cool down the temperature politically?

• 58:18Josh Brown?

  Yeah.

• 58:18Ed Elson?

  I mean, that, that, that is what, what is interesting is I, I agree. I, I, I think he's, he does not wanna get involved in a political spat. By the way, Scott takes the other side of this. He thinks, oh, Powell's, he, he says Powell's not gonna cut rates because he wants to sort of give the finger. My view is this guy doesn't have an ego like that.

• 58:35Josh Brown?

  Yeah, I don't think so. I don't, I don't think so. And-

• 58:38Ed Elson?

  But what you're saying is he does wanna turn down the temperature politically because it has become politicized.

• 58:43Josh Brown?

  The more independently he tries to act as Fed Chair, the more he's endangering-

• 58:48Ed Elson?

  He doesn't have a choice.

• 58:49Josh Brown?

  But the more he's endangering the independence of the Fed. This is not the first president in history to have an opinion on where interest rates should be. This is not the first president in history to try to intimidate the chairman of the Federal Reserve into acting on the administration's best interest. It's just not. He has a style all his own. It's the first president to do this on Twitter.

• 59:10Ed Elson?

  Important detail.

• 59:11Josh Brown?

  Yeah, no, I get it, but I- I just, I don't think that Powell thinks what's, what's in the best interest of the institution is to give the middle finger to Donald Trump.

• 59:22Ed Elson?

  Agreed.

• 59:23Josh Brown?

  And I also don't think a rate cut would be so crazy. Rates are too tight for a, a, a one to two percent GDP growth environment. If you're basing your opinion on whether or not rates should be cut on the stock market, then you don't even understand how the Fed works. The Fed, the Fed is not supposed to be paying attention to the stock market as its own variable. It's employment versus costs. I don't think we're in an inflationary emergency and I think rates are too high given economic growth. Um, the labor market is not as strong as it was last year and they did a rate cut last year. So I, I don't think it's that hard for Powell to get to the place where he says, all right,

• 1:00:07Josh Brown?

  here's your fucking 25 basis points. Enough already. And that's what I think. Well, that's my prediction. I don't, I don't know anything more than anyone else. That's what I think.

• 1:00:16Ed Elson?

  I like that prediction. Okay. Josh Brown is the co-founder and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, a New York City-based investment advisory firm managing six and a half billion dollars in assets for individuals, corporate retirement plans and foundations. He also is a podcaster. You should check out his podcast, The Compound and Friends. Uh, am I missing anything, Josh?

• 1:00:36Josh Brown?

  Nah, it's enough. It's enough already with me. It's enough.

• 1:00:40Ed Elson?

  Okay. We really appreciate you standing in, uh, for Scott this week and we hope to have you on again very soon.

• 1:00:46Josh Brown?

  Love you guys. Thank you. Thank you so much for having me. Really appreciate it.

• 1:00:49Ed Elson?

  Thank you for joining us. This was great.

• 1:00:53Ed Elson?

  This episode was produced by Claire Miller and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our associate producer is Alison Weiss. Miel Severio is our research lead. Our research associates are Isabella Kinsel and Dan Shalan. Drew Burrows is our technical director and Catherine Dillon is our executive producer. Thank you for listening to Prof G Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network. Tune in tomorrow for a fresh take on markets.

• 1:01:52Speaker 09

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• 1:02:05Speaker 09

  to a stay surrounded by nature.

• 1:02:11Speaker 09

  That's nice. Go on, book it. It's easy. Booking.com. Booking dot yeah.

• 1:02:22Speaker 10

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