Adapt or Get Left Behind: You’re About to Be Replaced — Not by AI, But by People Who Use It Better Than You | Ian Bremmer

Tom Bilyeu hosts renowned political scientist and founder of Eurasia Group, Ian Bremmer, for a high-stakes analysis of today’s dramatically changing global order. With Donald Trump’s unprecedented tariff moves sending shockwaves through the global economy and AI advancing at blistering speed, Tom enlists Ian’s expertise to break down the chaotic landscape and offer insight into where the world is heading. Ian dives deep into the fragmentation of global alliances, the crucial implications of U. S.-China decoupling, and why eroding trust in America’s leadership is creating economic and strategic risk on a global scale. Whether you’re a business leader, investor, or simply trying to navigate the world, this episode will give you frameworks to stay ahead as major powers reposition their strategies in real time. SHOWNOTES 00:00 Uncertainty in Global Trade Policy 04:12 "Chaos vs. Trade War Consequences" 08:18 China-U. S. Trade War Intensifies 10:25 Decouple Manufacturing from China 13:28 US Strategy: Outcompeting China 18:55 Greatest Capital Allocator: Elon Musk 21:29 Elon Musk: Controversy and Influence 25:15 Embracing Friction for Innovation 28:13 "Disillusionment with Leadership and AI Impact" 29:53 AI's Transformative Impact on Industries 35:51 Trump's Uneven Ukraine-Russia Strategy 37:56 Trump's Advisors on Russia Sanctions 40:35 Putin-Trump Dynamic: Personal vs. Political 43:28 Trump's Tactical Diplomatic Moves 49:39 America's Failure on Immigration Laws 51:02 Follow GZERO Media & Ian Bremmer CHECK OUT OUR SPONSORS Audible: Sign up for a free 30 day trial at https://audible.com/IMPACTTHEORY https://audible.com/IMPACTTHEORY1 Vital Proteins: Get 20% off by going to https://www.vitalproteins.com https://www.vitalproteins.com/ and entering promo code IMPACT at check out Upway: Get $150 OFF any purchase over a thousand when you use code IMPACT at https://upway.co https://upway.co/. Thrive Market: ​​Go to https:thrivemarket.com/impact http://thrivemarket.com/impact for 30% off your first order, plus a FREE $60 gift! American Alternative Assets: If you're ready to explore gold as part of your investment strategy, call 1-888-615-8047 or go to https://TomGetsGold.com https://tomgetsgold.com/ Tech Unheard: Tune into Tech Unheard from Arm and NPM—wherever you get your podcasts. Monarch Money: Use code THEORY at https://monarchmoney.com https://monarchmoney.com/ for 50% off your first year! Mint Mobile: If you like your money, Mint Mobile is for you. Shop plans at https://mintmobile.com/impact. https://mintmobile.com/impact DISCLAIMER: Upfront payment of $45 for 3-month 5 gigabyte plan required (equivalent to $15/mo.). New customer offer for first 3 months only, then full-price plan options available. Taxes & fees extra. See MINT MOBILE for details. What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: If you want my help... STARTING a business:join me here at ZERO TO FOUNDER https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show SCALING a business:see if you qualify here. https://tombilyeu.com/call Get my battle-tested strategies and insights delivered weekly to your inbox:sign up here. https://tombilyeu.com/ ********************************************************************** If you're serious about leveling up your life, I urge you to check out my new podcast,Tom Bilyeu’s Mindset Playbook https://open.spotify.com/show/47VE90Cittmo6TGGFqg2xf —a goldmine of my most impactful episodes on mindset, business, and health. Trust me, your future self will thank you. ********************************************************************** Join me live on myTwitch stream https://impacttheory.co/4fitmnJ. I'm live daily from 6:30 to 8:30 am PT atwww.twitch.tv/tombilyeu https://impacttheory.co/4fitmnJ ********************************************************************** LISTEN TO IMPACT THEORY AD FREE + BONUS EPISODES on APPLE PODCASTS:apple.co/impacttheory http://apple.co/impacttheory ********************************************************************** FOLLOW TOM: Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok:https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter:https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices https://megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Tom Bilyeu?

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• 0:45Tom Bilyeu?

  Their dashboard tracks what comes next based on what your business actually needs. So EIN number, registered agent, licenses and permits, bookkeeping, business banking. I tell every founder the same thing. Just make it official. Click the link in the show notes to check out Taylor Brands and get started on your business today. This is a paid advertisement. I'm Tom Bilyeu and this is Impact Theory. This is the moment to be decisive because right now the entire global order is being rewritten in real time. And the world is not going to wait for any of us to catch up. Trump's new tariff policies have thrown global trade into chaos. Allies like Europe, Japan, and Mexico are scrambling to cut their own deals.

• 1:28Tom Bilyeu?

  China is doubling down on alliances across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. And in the middle of it all, AI is advancing so fast governments can't even keep up. This isn't about just staying informed anymore. It's about understanding things well enough to build a strategy. Because if you understand cause and effect, you can build a better path forward than the people who do not understand that. That is why I wanted Ian Bremmer back on the show right now. He's one of the only people who can connect all the dots from the tariffs to the trade wars to the AI arms race. And break it down in a way that's actually useful by giving you the framework to make better decisions today. Whether that's navigating the AI disruption, understanding where the global economy is headed,

• 2:12Tom Bilyeu?

  or seeing opportunities that others are going to miss. So without further ado, I bring you Ian Bremmer. If you don't mind, because we have a live audience, I've given them a primer already. But if you don't mind taking like a 15, 20 second, just who is Ian Bremmer?

• 2:29Speaker 01

  I am a political scientist that started a company almost 30 years ago, trying to help us all understand where the world is heading. So we've got 250 people around the world. They're mostly analysts. They cover countries, sectors, themes. It is based in New York City, but it's global. It's certainly not left or right partisan. It's all based on analysis and that's what I am and who I am and all that.

• 3:01Tom Bilyeu?

  I love it, man. Well, jumping into the analysis, so who Trump keeps things interesting. How are you feeling about his handling of the tariffs?

• 3:13Speaker 01

  I guess depends on what hour you ask me, since it's changed about 10 times over the course of the last week since Liberation Day. Obviously, the markets don't like it. Most American voters don't like it. Most American allies don't like it. And most American adversaries don't like it. So it's hard to find a policy that has been so universally panned so broadly in such a short period of time. But I think the biggest challenge is the uncertainty. Is the fact that the world's most powerful country, the world's strongest economy

• 3:55Speaker 01

  is actually driving the most geopolitical uncertainty. And it's doing that in many ways, but principally right now through trade and tariff policy. We have now applied the highest level of global tariffs that the world has seen since the 1930s. But it's been on again, off again in so many ways. Is it 10% or is it more on most countries around the world? Are there going to be major exceptions for certain types of goods? Or is US-China going to be in a trade embargo environment? Will?

• 4:38Speaker 01

  Will there be dramatic changes in 90 days? Or will there be further suspensions? Are there going to be a number of huge deals that get cut between the United States and other countries around the world? Or will those be underwhelming? All of those things completely unclear a week.

• 4:57Tom Bilyeu?

  At a meta level, though, do you think that this level of chaos can only be described as negative? Like, the uncertainty, just no matter what he's got in mind, the uncertainty is is creating an unacceptable level of economic trauma? Or do you see it some other way?

• 5:20Speaker 01

  I'd rather have a chaos that gets to a better place than have a trade war with everybody that leads to a fragmentation of the global economy. So I don't think that chaos is the worst possible short term outcome. But long term chaos and a lack of trust and an erosion of America's reputational power, reputational capital, where other countries don't trust the United States to do what it says it's going to do, will lead to behavior that we Americans don't like. It'll lead to fewer people sending their kids to be educated in American universities,

• 6:04Speaker 01

  fewer people wanting to buy real estate in the US from outside the country, fewer people want to work in the United States with high skill set that is difficult to substitute for domestically presently in the US. It'll lead to other countries trying to de-risk their long term trade and investment exposure to the United States and do deeper deals with each other, like you're seeing with Xi Jinping's trip to Vietnam and across Southeast Asia this week, like you're seeing between the Canadians and the Europeans right now, like you see between the Brazilians and the Europeans right now. I mean, so many other examples, India and UK

• 6:50Speaker 01

  or Australia and New Zealand. I mean, so much hedging and trying to risk away from a United States that countries feel like they can't have the same level of exposure to that they have historically.

• 7:05Tom Bilyeu?

  And how do you think this plays out? So he's got, let's say, till the midterms to get this right. Do you see this, as Ray Dalio has warned, as a fundamental breakdown of the international economic order that's going to disrupt all of trade? Or do you think that, nope, he's going to restabilize? Everything's going to be fine, bit bumpy, but we're going to be good?

• 7:27Speaker 01

  I think that it's in between those two things, Tom. I think when it comes to a lot of American allies that are much smaller than the US, they are desperate for deals. So just this week, the Japanese are sending the Trade Minister and a large delegation with an offer. And that offer will include buying a lot of US LNG. It'll include significant Japanese additional investments into the US in high tech, in automotive, in other areas, and will also include trying to bring the Japanese yen down from the mid

• 8:07Speaker 01

  140s to 120-ish, which is, which they don't have a clear policy for yet, but they're trying to formulate one. And I'm sure that will be announced as a huge win by Trump, by Secretary of Treasury, Scott Bessent, by others. I think the South Koreans are oriented towards a deal. You've got a country like Mexico with a leader that has 85% approval. She can get anything done she wants, and she is trying, highly, highly trying to get deals done on greater crackdown on fentanyl trafficking, greater crackdown on illegal migrants coming into the US and the border, all sorts of things that she is trying to

• 8:52Speaker 01

  get done for America. So I think there will be a number of countries, Tom, where in the next one, two months, the Trump administration is able to announce deals, maintains 10% additional tariffs, has additional revenue collection, but, but things become normalized. But I don't think that's going to be true with Europe. I think with the EU, it's going to be a lot harder. It's 27 countries. They have to coordinate. They're very bureaucratic. They move slowly and trade is a core competency of the Europeans. I also think that with China, we are in the throes of what is, what feels like a trade war.

• 9:35Speaker 01

  And even if the Americans pull back more dramatically than they already have, and Trump might well do that, because this morning you may have seen China already said, we're not going to buy any more Boeings. Chinese have already started to say that they're going to be tougher on critical minerals exports. These are things that will hit the Americans pretty hard if they're implemented fully. But even if they don't, the Chinese are utterly convinced that the United States wants to contain them. And that means that the two largest economies in the world are going to further decouple from each other. And there will, of course, be significant economic cost globally as a consequence of that.

• 10:17Speaker 01

  So I don't come down in the camp that this is all the precipice of a disaster and globalization will be completely over. I don't accept that. I think that's overstated. But, but the idea that Trump is suddenly going to just cut big, beautiful deals with everybody and we can go back to where we were ex ante, except America's in a stronger position. That's clearly not true. And one other reason for that is that the US is not only picking fights on trade. The US is also picking fights in terms of the way it treats other countries and their citizens when they are tourists in the US, when they are students in the US.

• 11:02Speaker 01

  They're undermining rule of law in the United States. They are.

• 11:07Tom Bilyeu?

  You're saying Trump is undermining rule of law?

• 11:10Speaker 01

  Absolutely. Yeah, I mean, he's trying to erode the checks and balances that the executive has from the judiciary, from the legislature, and that he's ended the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, for example, suspended that. And there's been a bunch of things that the US has done that makes the US feel less trustworthy by allies around the world.

• 11:33Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, I want to get to that in a minute, but I want to go back first to the implications here in China. So my belief system rides on the back of one of the, the following statement is one of the most important pillars of how I'm thinking about this moment, and that is, you absolutely must decouple from China, having such control over your manufacturing base, even if I can't get people on board with that returning jobs will help the working class here in America, that you can't have your largest military rival, your only pure military rival, control your manufacturing base. So do you think from that perspective,

• 12:15Tom Bilyeu?

  something had to be done and this may or may not be the right path?

• 12:19Speaker 01

  Yes. Yes, you're right. You're absolutely right. The United States exported its entire semiconductor industry to Taiwan, 100 miles off of the coast of the PRC, right? I mean, that is, that was, that's easily as stupid, maybe even stupider than the Germans saying, we're going to get all of our energy from Russia, right? I mean, it makes short-term market sense, short-term profits for corporations that don't care about the long-term strategic viability of the country, and it undermines the interests of the country. So absolutely, you're right. And my point, and the reason why I was going beyond trade and talking about

• 13:01Speaker 01

  all of these other issues, is if you are focused on a significant and vulnerable exposure that the United States has to its principal adversary, which by the way, is at parity with the US in almost every technology that matters, and ahead of the United States in a lot of core technologies, then you cannot pick fights with your allies at the same time. You can't drive your allies to do more with China. You bring your allies to the

• 13:32Tom Bilyeu?

  Why do you think he's doing it? Why is he doing it? Is he a madman? Or does he have an agenda?

• 13:39Speaker 01

  Oh, no, he's not a madman. Um, I mean, he he's completely convinced that he's right about everything and he doesn't listen to experts and doesn't have either a lot of policy expertise, nor is he patient um to get it. Um, and so, you know, he basically says, well, I've always been convinced that these countries are all ripping us off, China and Europe and Mexico and Canada, and even countries where the US runs trade surpluses like Australia and Brazil, and America's the strongest country in the world, and I'm 78, and they just tried to assassinate. They they shot me in the head, so I don't have much time. I need to do all this now, so I'm just going to use my power, my position of strength, and beat up on everybody simultaneously.

• 14:23Tom Bilyeu?

  What's going to be the result of that?

• 14:24Speaker 01

  He needs allies. Doesn't think he needs allies.

• 14:27Tom Bilyeu?

  What's going to be the result, though? Is is America going to end up isolated? Uh, do we have enough juice to isolate China?

• 14:36Speaker 01

  No, not by ourselves. I mean, you you again, I Tom, you hit on the correct point, which is that there is a big country out there that is not only an adversary to the US, but has the ability long term to outcompete the US unless we are smart. And if we want to win, if we want to ensure that our economy is actually working and that we have a level of sovereignty over our decisions in the US and globally, we need to be outcompeting the Chinese. So, for example, the CHIPS Act, which is one of the smartest things that Biden did, and is completely aligned with Trump's desire to outcompete China and reshore semiconductors

• 15:19Speaker 01

  in the US, Trump has said he's going to blow up. Why? Because it was Biden's. That's just stupid. It's just stupid, right? You can't play politics with something this important. You have to get out of your way, and you have to think about what's in the country's interest long term. And so maybe you do have fights with the Europeans, but you don't fight them simultaneously. Maybe you are concerned that you want to redo your deal with the Mexicans and Canadians, which Trump got done to begin with. The USMCA, that was Trump's deal. And now he's telling the Canadians 51st state. And now he's telling the Mexicans, you know, 25% automotive tariffs. He's picking these huge fights at the same time that he's trying to address

• 16:03Speaker 01

  a long-term, structural, deep issue that really matters with the Chinese. And he's driving other countries away from America.

• 16:12Tom Bilyeu?

  Coming up next, Ian breaks down why Trump's tariff strategy could backfire and how it's already pushing America's closest allies into China's orbit.

• 16:22Tom Bilyeu?

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• 17:49Tom Bilyeu?

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• 18:33Tom Bilyeu?

  All right, we're back. Let's get into it. You said something about Trump that I thought was very interesting. And that was by far the most dysfunctional and kleptocratic, referring to America, and unfree political system of the advanced industrial democracies. Talk to me about the kleptocratic part. How do you see Trump fitting into that? Is Trump a cause, a symptom? How do we, if we wanted to map your mind about the the character of Trump as it will play out politically, what are the few beliefs about him that we would need to understand?

• 19:11Speaker 01

  Well, I said that in a structural way. It is getting worse under Trump, but it is not new. The idea that Trump is responsible for kleptocracy in the United States is farcical. The US has been by far the most coin operated of advanced industrial democracies for decades. I mean, one thing that almost all Americans agree on is that the United States is the most politically dysfunctional and kleptocratic of advanced political systems. Americans agree on that. They just don't agree on the cause. A lot of people would say, oh, well, it's because of the Democrats.

• 19:54Speaker 01

  Others would say, oh, it's because of Trump. When the reality is, it's a dual system where people with money have access to power and have different standards in terms of policing and rule of law applying to them than people that don't have that money. And, and we see that operate, we've seen it operate for decades now. You know, that's why it costs billions of dollars to run our election. And it takes over a year to get done. The Canadians have an election that costs a few million dollars and takes five weeks. Which system is more democratic? Obviously not ours, right?

• 20:36Speaker 01

  I mean, those companies expect to get something for the billions of dollars that they donate to American political campaigns. And they do get something. They get outcomes. I mean, we saw this with TikTok, right? Trump used to be opposed to TikTok. He said it was a national security concern. He was concerned about it before Biden was. And then he got lots of money from Jeff Yass and other investors into TikTok. And he did a complete 180 on the issue. Now it's no longer a national security concern. Now he's willing to cut a deal. Now he's extending the lifespan of TikTok without a deal, even as he's putting 145% tariffs on the Chinese. Why?

• 21:18Speaker 01

  Well, because the investors to TikTok are getting what they paid for. And that's true for crypto and it's true for oil and gas. And on the democratic side, it's been true for Big Pharma and it's true for retail. It's true for trial lawyers. I mean, you know, it goes on and on and on. Um, this is a huge problem. And Trump was elected in part because it was seen as a huge problem, but he is not going to fix it. I mean, he's actually, in my view, made it considerably worse. When you take the wealthiest person in the world, you give them a political position and more access to the presidency than anybody else.

• 21:59Speaker 01

  At the same time that he continues to run, own and run, um, you know, sort of six major multinational corporations. It's hard to even identify what a conflict of interest is in that environment.

• 22:12Tom Bilyeu?

  Let me, let me give you my take on that. Obviously, I have a frame of reference as a longtime entrepreneur. I get that that's going to have skewed my worldview very dramatically. I look at Elon Musk and I say, you have literally, for sure, the greatest living capital allocator, full stop.

• 22:33Tom Bilyeu?

  Possibly the greatest capital allocator ever. What he's doing is just absolutely unbelievable in, in the world of business. And you get him to focus on doing things inside of the government to help us allocate capital well. For me, while I obviously understand the potential conflict of interests,

• 22:58Tom Bilyeu?

  I want this cabinet of very effective business operators to come in and point out systems that are broken, how we can fix them, where there's fraud, waste and abuse, not to get sucked into the, you know, the typical language there. But that all makes sense to me. And given the level of transparency that the Trump administration has put forward, I'm very open to saying, okay, cool. These guys are proximity to power for sure. They're going to be able to make policies that are good for them, but we can see everything that's happening. And I would rather have these guys than the historical bureaucrats that I've gotten playing these kinds of roles. Do you have a similarly charitable view?

• 23:43Tom Bilyeu?

  Or do you think that I'm so distorted by my years as an entrepreneur that I cannot see the clitocracy that's happening right before my eyes?

• 23:50Speaker 01

  No, I appreciate your honesty. I always have, Tom. And of course, I mean, I'm a political scientist, but I mean, I started a multinational corporation myself. I'm a founder, I'm an entrepreneur. And I never would have the success that I've had if I didn't start in the United States, which is a system that's so, you know, promotes entrepreneurship, unlike what we see in Europe, for example, unlike what we see in Japan, for example. So, and I've, I mean, I'm not a rocket scientist. I'm I'm not an electric car whiz.

• 24:28Speaker 01

  So I I don't have an ability to judge Elon as an entrepreneur, except for by looking at his results. But this is a guy that has shown, right, that he can build world-class corporations at scale, or at least lead them and finance them, right? So, I mean, clearly, he deserves, I think, a lot of attention and credit for that. I have no problem with that, and if he was prepared to put those companies in a blind trust, I would have no problem. In fact, I would welcome his talent in trying to create more efficiencies in the United States government. I don't like the idea

• 25:12Speaker 01

  of people that have expertise in one area, believing they have expertise in every area. And so I see Elon as opining on democratic systems in Europe and saying that the AFD should win and showing up on video calls with them, which is considered to be a neo-Nazi party by a strong majority of German citizens. And and the rest of the government won't work with them because of that. I think he's damaging the United States and its core alliances by doing that. And he's doing it inside the Trump administration. I have a serious problem with that.

• 25:56Speaker 01

  And I also have a problem with him meeting with Narendra Modi in Blair House, which is part of the White House complex. And it's not clear whether he's doing it in his official capacity, running Doge, or his unofficial capacity, building business. When Trump was asked by a journalist that evening, Trump answered honestly. They said, you know, in what capacity is Elon meeting Modi? And Trump said, I don't know. And I mean, that's the right answer. How could Trump know? He could be doing either, both. Who knows? But that's not okay. I mean, if Modi came to the United States and brought,

• 26:36Speaker 01

  you know, sort of, you know, Ambani or Adani into a meeting with Trump or met with Trump separately, we in the United States, Democrats, Republicans, independents, would say that India was becoming a banana republic. Like, that's just not acceptable. All right. So, but the fact that the United States government is now doing that, I think, really undermines capability. So, I mean, in short, I think that what Elon is bringing to Doge, the fact that we now have some world-class AI and technology capabilities that otherwise would

• 27:14Speaker 01

  never be applied to a very bureaucratized US regulatory system, and is going to look for regulations that are destructive of value, that are overlapping in different departments. I think there are a lot of countries around the world that are going to take that as a model and try to do the same thing inside their countries, and they won't be as effective. So I think there will be efficiencies that come from Doge. It is clear that that's not the only thing that they're doing, and I truly mistrust the conflict of interest, especially for someone already worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Like, he doesn't need

• 27:56Speaker 01

  more money. So it would be trivial for him to put his country's companies in blind trust and not have those conflicts of interest if he so chose. He chose not to. And I have to, I cannot afford, as an American citizen, to give him the benefit of the doubt for choosing not to have rules that apply to everybody else in US politics a court over 200 years of history. Those rules should not suddenly apply to Elon. I'm not okay with giving him the benefit of the doubt for that. I'm very interested in your views on that, Tom.

• 28:32Tom Bilyeu?

  So I think that level of friction is good. I think it's good that you and I view this very differently. Because I believe that the best ideas are arrived at not by one person convincing somebody else, but by there being dynamic tension between the two and them having to find this compromised way forward. So I think it's good when I, given how hard I have worked in my life to achieve the kind of success that Elon has achieved and found it with my talent and intelligence and interests, just not possible. He's, he's excelling on a level that my imagination failed to offer as a possibility. Like I just, until I saw it, I did not think running that many companies, engaging with the world at the level of engineering

• 29:17Tom Bilyeu?

  would yield the kind of results that, that he's done. So I am, I think it's wise to be skeptical, but at the same time for me, I come at it with, I want the smartest people on planet earth aimed at the problem of making America the most successful country. And then getting a sensible immigration policy so that we can continue to be a beacon for all the people, all the world over, to come here and to out China by being the most American thing ever and not by trying to out China by being better at being Chinese. And so in that milieu, I get that I'm taking a risk, but I fall on the other side of that where I'm like,

• 29:59Tom Bilyeu?

  I get it. It's different. It's a breach in decorum. I might look at it funny if I didn't align with the things that he's done in life are the exact kind of things that I've tried to do and I know how hard they are. And for whatever success I've had, it was extremely difficult. And so for him to be able to do it at such a scale, I'm just like, yes, that's the kind of person that I want aimed at this problem. But you brought up AI earlier and I know the community here is very eager to hear you. Give us your view. I for one think AI is a meteorite screaming towards the earth. And not that it's going to destroy everything, but that it, nothing will be the same, literally nothing, top to bottom. Nothing will be the same on the other side of this.

• 30:41Tom Bilyeu?

  I'm so curious to get your take, what you think the impacts of AI are going to be.

• 30:46Speaker 01

  I agree. And, and look, in the context of that, there's going to be so much change in the geopolitical system and the economic system and how societies function in the next five years because of AI. You know, maybe the conversations we're having about, you know, is, is it problematic or not for Elon to have a conflict of interest? Maybe we're rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, right? Maybe it just doesn't matter. Maybe, you know, your point is like, you just need to go in all in on your smartest people. And if that means the US ends up to be less of a democracy, well, hey, if we're efficient and we can grow and we can out compete China, maybe that's fine. We weren't much of a democracy anyway. There are a lot of Americans that feel that way. There are a lot of Americans

• 31:31Speaker 01

  that say, look, I mean, I've given these guys a chance, Democrats and Republicans for the last 40 years, and all they've done is enrich themselves. They haven't actually taken care of the average American. So why do I care so much about this ostensible democracy? You know, I mean, why don't I just go with people who are, are gonna like break a bunch of things? And, and I, I think that's, I mean, Planet Elon in that regard is, is quite popular, especially to a lot of young men who haven't felt so good about where the leadership of America has been driving them. So I get that. Now, in AI front, I mean,

• 32:13Speaker 01

  I, I think here is an area that is, I mean, even the last three months, if you look at these new models that are, you know, they're world-class capabilities, they're out competing, you know, humans in, in top math competitions, in science competitions. I mean, you know, you know, high-level employees in almost every sector are now using AI to improve their work. And I think it's a very short leap from that to displacement of very large numbers of, of white-collar workers. I mean, you know, you've got

• 32:55Speaker 01

  Tens of thousands of people in the, in New York and in London, uh, doing risk management in banking industry. I, I think we're a year, a year and a half away from needing 10% of those employees, for example, where I see this happening in so many industries, including my own. Um, I mean, you know, there's so many things that are happening inside my company that like we have to every month rethink, okay, are our employees capable of using this technology? Well, or are they going to get displaced? And being very open and honest with them. Yeah, yeah, same here. Someone's going to do it. Um, so I, I do see it as, as completely transformative.

• 33:40Speaker 01

  For me, the thing that I find most interesting, which is coming like this year, is as AI starts training on our individual data, um, either on the cloud or eventually on our smartphones. Because right now you and I, the most dysfunctional thing that we do in associating ourselves with the world around us, is that when we open our smartphone, we are on like a hundred different apps. We're going from one to the other, to the other. You and I just experienced that in trying to get this live stream going, right? Now, that is going to change radically. When AI

• 34:23Speaker 01

  starts training on us, we will have an individual AI agent. And so instead of just being able to use AI to have a voice, suddenly we're going to use an AI to act for us. It'll become our most essential relationship that knows us better than any person does. Um, and, and that I think is really going to change humanity. It'll make us much more capable. It'll bring knowledge on, world-class knowledge on medicine, on training and education, um, on business to human beings that have access to it, no matter. What country they're living in, whether or not they have infrastructure around them.

• 35:08Speaker 01

  All they need is that smartphone and that app. Um, so they just need access to a battery, electricity, and then they're they're off to the races. They're globalized. Um, but it also is going to change how we think, who we are, how we interact with others. And for people that don't have it, they're not going to be like human beings. And I worry a lot about that. I don't think that we have the governance and the society structure to handle that kind of transformation that quickly.

• 35:40Tom Bilyeu?

  After the break, we'll dive into why AI is moving so fast and what's going to happen with a political system that simply can't keep up. And how all of that is about to create a permanent divide between the people who adapt and the people who get left behind.

• 35:57Tom Bilyeu?

  All right, we're back. Let's get into it.

• 36:00Tom Bilyeu?

  I wrote a comic book. This is five or six years ago now, exploring this moment. And the punchline of my comic was that there would be an inevitable schism between what I'll now call the new Puritans, who refuse to embrace AI, who refuse to integrate technology into their body, and then people that embrace it whole hog. And that was always, that still is how I think that this is going to play out, that there becomes a religious friction between people who believe that integrating technology and going that deep on AI is somehow an affront to God. Uh, and I think that's going to create the schism. But I hear you saying something slightly differently. So where do you think the friction point is?

• 36:43Speaker 01

  Um, I think your friction point is real. Um, I am a little less worried about that than I am about the, say, two, three billion people that won't have access to AI, even though they'd like it.

• 36:58Tom Bilyeu?

  Because they can't afford it? Because governments keep them from accessing it?

• 37:03Speaker 01

  Um, I suspect more the former than the latter. I think that we're likely to have a period of, you know, it might be 10 years, it might be one year. But look, there's been a digital divide and you've got a whole bunch of people that don't have access to the internet right now around the world. Um, and they're still able to exist in this economy and society. It's just, you know, there's a huge gap there, right? But with AI, you're talking about creating something that's different from Homo sapiens. Right? I mean, you know, once you are engaging with AI real time, it's changing who you are. It's changing your brain function and capacity.

• 37:46Speaker 01

  You're becoming kind of a hybrid, right? Um, and, and you wouldn't be able to imagine not engaging with it real time. You'll never shut it off, right? And I think that those people that don't have access to that, um, will, will lose.

• 38:07Speaker 01

  They may, they may gain something in terms of existential humanity. That's a philosophical conversation. But in terms of access to power and, and capital and the ability to like develop and grow in a society that is speeding, speeding, speeding up ever faster. Those are people that will not be treated as fellow humans. And we've always been bad at that, right?

• 38:33Tom Bilyeu?

  Uh, yes, we have. Uh, that, that's very interesting. All right, I could go on for that forever, but we have you. You're such an expert on what's going on in Russia, Ukraine. If you don't mind, give us a, a quick take. Trump had talked about, I'm going to end this war on day one. Needless to say, I don't think anybody believed that was going to happen. It didn't happen. It seems to be stalling out. No, no, he's even said, look, I was being somewhat sarcastic, I think is his exact quote. Uh, is Putin playing games? Does Putin have any interest in resolving this? Or is this going to drag out for years?

• 39:08Speaker 01

  So Trump has used a carrot and stick approach on Russia, Ukraine. The problem is that he's used stick against Ukraine and carrot against Russia when he should be using a more even-handed approach. His stick approach against Ukraine has been effective in my view. Um, I, you know, was just with the former Ukrainian Foreign Minister here in my office a few days ago, and he admitted as such, which is, you know, he wasn't super comfortable with it, but the fact was that when Trump suspended intelligence and military support to Ukraine, which Biden never would have done, you know, and he didn't suspend it forever.

• 39:51Speaker 01

  He suspended it for a couple of weeks, but the Ukrainians took notice and, and they were like, okay, we cannot mess around with this guy because we will lose the war very quickly. So if he's telling us that he wants a ceasefire unconditionally, we have to give him a ceasefire unconditionally. And that is indeed what Ukraine did. He demanded it and Ukraine immediately said, yes, sir. Right? So now you have Trump going to Putin saying, okay, let's have a conversation about a ceasefire and Trump's talking about all the things the Americans can do with Russia. They can end the sanctions and they can co-invest in the Arctic, um, and they can work together on, you know, sort of the Middle East, all these

• 40:33Speaker 01

  things. And, and yet he hasn't been saying, and if you don't, like there's going to be holy hell to pay. And Putin-

• 40:41Tom Bilyeu?

  He's started to talk a little bit more like that now. Um, I don't know if you think he's serious. He, the only thing he can do that's really going to disrupt Russia is, uh, stop their exporting of oil and natural gas. Do you think he'll really play that card?

• 40:56Speaker 01

  That's not true. Um, there are lots of things he can do. He can say-

• 41:00Tom Bilyeu?

  Say more.

• 41:01Speaker 01

  And Russia, if you don't, uh, agree to a ceasefire, um, I'm going to provide a lot more support to Ukraine.

• 41:10Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah. So I meant non militarily.

• 41:13Speaker 01

  Oh, well, but, but actually Trump's own advisors like Keith Kellogg, I mean, were saying that before the inauguration. They were saying that, look, if, if there's a deal, great. And if there's not, I'm going to hit you hard. Um, and you know, that, that is the reality that they've also talked about sanctions directly on the Russian central bank. Um, they've talked about, yes, they've talked about taking sanctions against Russian energy export, which would bring oil prices up, but in an environment where OPEC is pumping a lot more and where prices are so low that the American frackers are actually starting

• 41:54Speaker 01

  to pull back on drilling, uh, because it's no longer profitable. There's a lot more flexibility for Trump to hit the Chinese and the Indians on that front. I mean, we've got oil prices that have been touching under 60 right now. Wow. That's very different than when they're at 80, right? So, yeah, I do think there's flexibility, but it's interesting that Trump in the last just 24 hours, right, has been talking about, well, this was Ukraine and Biden's war. This wasn't Putin responsible for it. I mean, he is, it's been, it's been an interesting issue. It's the one foreign policy issue where you can consistently see a difference in what Trump is saying publicly

• 42:34Speaker 01

  from what his own advisors are saying. Um, and you don't see that on Iran. You don't see it on Gaza. You don't see it on China, but on Russia, Trump has been so much more cautious about, about a willingness to ever say anything critical about Putin. Um, and you know, at this point, Putin is starting to make Trump look weak on this issue. It's, he's, he's starting to imply that I don't need to actually do anything that you're telling me. I, I don't need a ceasefire. I can just keep going. I can, I can actually, I can launch missiles and kill dozens of people, including kids, on Palm Sunday, which you

• 43:18Speaker 01

  saw a direct condemnation from a number of US top officials. You saw it from Marco Rubio, Secretary of State. You saw it from Rick Grinnell, Special Envoy. You saw it from Kellogg. You didn't see it from Trump. Trump, Trump said, well, no, the Kremlin told me that was a mistake. Usually, you know, Trump doesn't usually give the benefit of the doubt to folks like that.

• 43:44Tom Bilyeu?

  Well, people think he does to Putin all the time. Do you think that he is a shill for Putin? Or do you think there's another take on this?

• 43:52Speaker 01

  There's no reason to think he's a shill. I mean, we've never had evidence. I need evidence before I'm willing to make an argument like that. I think that Putin certainly has historically treated Trump a lot more nicely on an individual level than European leaders have. Like, I remember when Trump was first president, he attended the G20 in Hamburg. And, you know, he went across the table and sat down with Putin because he felt like the Europeans treat him like Obama used to treat him, that he thinks that he's a rube, he's rude, he's an idiot, doesn't deserve his position. Where, I mean, you know, Putin's kind of like Mohammed bin Salman, like, you know, he's just one of the guys, right, hangs out. So I think there's some of that.

• 44:35Speaker 01

  And I also think that Trump literally doesn't like the EU. I disagree with him strongly on this. He believes that a strong European union is bad for the US because they get together and they coordinate their policy against the US. He would rather see a fragmentation so that those individual countries are weaker and have to do bilateral deals with the US that's stronger. I think in a world where China's a big adversary, Russia's an adversary, having stronger allies is actually important for the United States. Trump disagrees, just fundamentally disagrees. That's a real point of contention between the two of our worldviews. But I don't see, I think what Trump, Trump just wants a deal with Putin, thinks he can

• 45:19Speaker 01

  get one. You'll remember President Bush, right, Jr., looked into Putin's eyes and saw his soul. There are, I mean, Trump would not be the first leader that has good meetings with Putin and thinks that, you know, sort of that's, that's going to lead to a breakthrough in the relationship. But it's not. And Trump is gonna have, if he wants a ceasefire, and he does, he's gonna have to actually push Putin a lot harder and more directly than he has been willing to do heretofore.

• 45:54Tom Bilyeu?

  All right, I know we have to let you go. Before we do, do you have a quick take on what's going on? Israel Gaza, how are you feeling about that?

• 46:03Speaker 01

  Well, let me first say something positive about Trump in the Middle East, which is that his Iran opening is a big one. And I think he is reasonably likely to succeed. The Iranians are in a very weak position right now. They have lost control over their proxies across the region. You'll remember with Signal Gate, Vice President Vance was saying, "Oh, this is a horrible thing and I should really tell Trump that he shouldn't go ahead with this war. It's going to hurt the Americans." But nobody else wanted to back him up and Stephen Miller shut it down. So he didn't actually tell Trump he opposed it.

• 46:45Speaker 01

  Well, now we're a few weeks into America going after the Houthis. No American soldiers have been killed in battle. And the Houthis are now basically telling the Americans, "Okay, if you please stop, we'll stop attacking shipping that's going through the Red Sea." So that looks like a win. And now the Iranians, who said they wanted nothing to do with the Americans, are willing to do direct talks. So this has been Trump using a fist to get to a place of peace. And the meeting that the Israeli Prime Minister had with Trump a week ago in the White House was almost as bad as Zelensky's trip to the Oval last month.

• 47:29Speaker 01

  And I mean, for everyone that says that Trump is in Israel's pocket, and yes, he certainly supports a lot of things that Israel is doing, but he was willing to make sure that Bibi knew who the boss was. Bibi wanted the tariffs to come off and Trump said, "We give you billions a year and you should be appreciative about that, sir." And Erdogan's our friend and we like his policy in Syria right now. We don't like what you're saying. And by the way, we're about to engage in direct talks with the Iranians and we're not going to engage in military strikes against their nuclear capabilities the way you want to drag us into a war, Bibi. So I give Trump full marks on the way he handled that conversation.

• 48:13Speaker 01

  Now, on Gaza, the US here is losing a lot of...

• 48:21Speaker 01

  Support around the world because you know it's not just defending Israel after the heinous terrorist acts of October 7th, it's now supporting Israel in occupying over 50% of Gaza, right? And cutting off completely all humanitarian aid to the Palestinians in Gaza for the last month. And that is unconscionable behavior. It is clearly unacceptable to the international community, but we, the United States, apparently have no problem with it. And we're also prepared to deport American residents with green cards that are critical of that policy, that we

• 49:06Speaker 01

  have not accused credibly of any crimes. And that fundamentally is opposed to free speech, which I firmly oppose. I mean, free speech is an essential, an essential right for everyone that lives in this country. And we've decided it doesn't actually apply to a whole class of folks. And I think that that sends a very bad message to those that we want to attract to our great nation.

• 49:35Tom Bilyeu?

  Help me think more clearly about this one, because I'm very hardcore about free speech. It is one of the hills that I would quite literally die on. And at the same time, I believe that we have an obligation to protect our culture. And it's like in my company, we have this thing called principles, actually came from Ray Dalio. And Ray Dalio talks about this. When you open up a culture so that people can say anything they want, you find that they will go and attack the foundations of your, your system. Now, I believe an American citizen should be able to attack those systems, because you're a citizen and you have the full protection of the law. But if you are coming in as a green card holder who is not

• 50:19Tom Bilyeu?

  a citizen, I'm married to a green card holder. So let me be very clear. I will have to suffer the consequences if this goes in the wrong direction. But I do believe that we're in a position right now where if we don't establish that America does have a culture, that we have values that are worth protecting, we're going to end up losing that culture. And the very, the, the paper that things are written on are only as good as the culture that backs them up. And so- How do we, how do we dance this dance?

• 50:50Speaker 01

  I agree with that and, and, but that means that our leaders have to stand for those values. They have to actually live as examples of those values. And I, I do not believe, I mean, we're not talking about students that are standing for Hamas. We're talking about students that oppose ethnic cleansing. We're talking about students that stand for rule of law. These are students that would support Ukrainians, just as they would support Palestinians. And, and, and I, I think it is important as someone whose own grandmother was Armenian fleeing genocide.

• 51:33Speaker 01

  And by the way, ethnic cleansing just committed against the Armenians, 120,000 in Nagorno-Karabakh that were forced out of their territory. The land's been taken and Americans barely said boo, just happened because that's the way of the world right now. But the United States has supposed...

• 51:50Tom Bilyeu?

  What? Who pushed in?

• 51:53Speaker 01

  Azerbaijan, supported by Turkey. I know, barely made news, nobody cares.

• 51:57Tom Bilyeu?

  I didn't hear about it.

• 51:58Speaker 01

  It's just the Armenians. But I mean, you know, we could talk about all this stuff's happening, South Sudan right now, the DRC right now. I mean, there's so many places that, you know, a lot of people suffering, but there aren't any journalists on the ground. There are no economic interests, so we don't care. But, you know, in the case of Israel, Palestine, of course, is a lot more focused, a lot more tension. Russia, Ukraine, a lot more focused, a lot more, a lot more tension. The, the, the point is that we need to stand for rule of law. We need to stand for the ability of human beings around the world to experience personal liberties. The ability to make a life for themselves and their children.

• 52:38Speaker 01

  And, and we, America, are falling down on that, both at home and around the world right now. And that is, I think, why this moment feels so fractious. We have to start standing for the things that our founders believed in to a much greater degree. And we need to look at ourselves and ask ourselves first and foremost, how are we not living up to that? Um, I fully agree that if you have someone that shouldn't be in this country legally, um, we should be addressing that. And the Democrats lost badly in part because they failed to address something that was clearly a matter of rule of law in the United States. They were

• 53:22Speaker 01

  allowing people to take advantage of an America that wasn't upholding its own laws. That's where American leaders are failing. And they're failing on the left and they're failing on the right. Uh, but to allow green card holding students to get caught up in identity politics and partisan warfare, that's not what America stands for. America stands for due process for everybody in this country. Um, and that, that's why people try to come here, um, from everywhere because they understand that this is not just a place to make money. It's also a place where we respect individual liberty. Um, and, and, and we're losing that.

• 54:05Tom Bilyeu?

  I hear that. Well, Ian, thank you so much for joining us, man. It was an honor to have you as the very first guest to join us during a live. It was wonderful. This was fantastic. Since you're here, where can people engage with you?

• 54:19Speaker 01

  Uh, G zero media.com, uh, is where they can follow all of, uh, the work that our media company puts out. And you can also follow me on your, whether it's the Twitter sphere or, uh, you know, sort of LinkedIn or wherever else you want. Ian Bremmer, all of those things work. And if you send me a note, I do my damnedest to respond.

• 54:38Tom Bilyeu?

  Awesome. Brother, thank you again so much, man. I really appreciate it.

• 54:42Speaker 01

  I want to say we'll do it in person live. It'll be

• 54:43Tom Bilyeu?

  I would love that, man. I would love that. All right. Until then.

• 54:46Speaker 01

  You gotta tell me where I can get that, that jacket, right? Because like if we were twinsies, we'd be like trading places or something.

• 54:52Tom Bilyeu?

  There we go. See now that spirit I like. I'll send you a link.

• 54:56Speaker 01

  There you go.

• 54:57Tom Bilyeu?

  All right, brother. Take care.

• 54:58Speaker 01

  Take care. Bye.

• 54:59Tom Bilyeu?

  Peace out. Bye.

• 58:29Tom Bilyeu?

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