Ray Dalio: America’s Hidden Civil War, and the Race to Beat China in Tech, Economics, and Academia

Ray Dalio on AI, the debt crisis and what actually makes people happy. (00:00) The Hidden Civil War Happening in the US (05:00) What Caused This Mass Polarization? (08:03) Will the Advancement of Tech Destroy Us? (16:44) Ray Dalio’s Predictions About AI (21:09) AI’s Impact on Economics Paid partnerships with: Levels: Get 2 extra months free at https://Levels. Link/Tucker Silencer Central: Promo code Tucker10 for 10% off your purchase of banish suppressors at https://www.silencercentral.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Speaker 00

  That sound? That's the National Squash League. Pro teams, the world's best players, and rallies so fast you'll forget to breathe. Season four is in full swing, and every match streams free on YouTube. Big hits, bigger rivalries, and a front-row seat from wherever you are. Watch every match for free on YouTube. Search "National Squash League" and hit subscribe or follow live updates on Instagram at NSL.Sport.

• 0:30Tucker Carlson?

  So I've heard you say that the United States is in a civil war. And I think most Americans don't perceive that. Can you tell us what you mean by that?

• 0:39Speaker 02

  Well, what I mean by a civil war, I should say a type of civil war, right? And what I mean is that there are irreconcilable differences that each side is willing to fight for in order to get the outcomes that they want. And that in that environment, the issues of how does the legal system work? Is that going to stand in the way of that fight? Or is there going to be a fight that will make the cause more important than anything? So that's the type of situation that we're in. And those gaps, we understand

• 1:24Speaker 02

  there's wealth and values gaps that are entering to this. This is, we've seen this through history. So where that goes is a different question. But we are in that type of civil war, are we not?

• 1:37Tucker Carlson?

  Clearly, we are. Clearly, we are. How are they resolved? I mean, clearly, they can be resolved through violence. But what are the other ways you resolve the kind of conflict we have?

• 1:47Speaker 02

  Normally, they're resolved through conflict. Because you get to the point where both sides can't... Reach agreements, both sides don't even want to talk. Both sides don't want to respect the rule of the law. So when we're dealing with things like sanctuary city issues.

• 2:07Tucker Carlson?

  Right.

• 2:07Speaker 02

  And we're dealing with enforceability. Who has the enforceability? Okay, and you almost have to play out. Okay, enforceability means police forces and such things.

• 2:18Tucker Carlson?

  Right, people with guns, yeah.

• 2:20Speaker 02

  People, right, people with guns and, you know, causes that just because the legal thing says they shouldn't do that, that's not going to stand in the way. We have that kind of a situation. So we are probably past the point of being able to resolve that by compromise and empathy and all of that. So normally it goes that way. I mean, the only thing that can be done is to have the fear of that. Create a necessity for having another path. You know, like we were talking about the debt situation.

• 3:01Tucker Carlson?

  Yes.

• 3:01Speaker 02

  So can, can there be a fiscal commission that gets together and then achieves those things or not? I think it's unlikely. I think we're going to more fragmentation. States, there are some states, other states, I think you're going to see more fragmentation. And so, but, you know, it's like this dynamic through history. This isn't the first time this happened. This happens repeatedly through history. And usually, you know, it runs its course.

• 3:34Tucker Carlson?

  So the way our leaders in the United States have dealt with it over the past 30 years has just been to ignore it completely, just ignore.

• 3:41Speaker 02

  Well, there's a cycle, you know? The cycle was.

• 3:47Speaker 02

  Let's say, I don't know, Ronald Reagan and Tip O'Neill, and they get together, and they were operating in a certain way, and the manifestations of the circumstances, you know, the manifestations of debt, or wealth gap, or values gaps were not as great. So you didn't, over that 30-year period, have as much polarity in many different ways. So now you've gone to greater polarity. If you watch statistics, everything I do comes from measuring things. So I look at statistics. The gap in measuring conservative or liberal

• 4:30Speaker 02

  votes in the House and the Senate is the greatest gap since 1900. And the voting across party lines is the least since 1900. So you see this gap. You see it in the elections, right? The green, so the blue and red. So we're not, it's not just an evolution, it's where we are, where we have gotten to, that is the irreconcilable questions. Does the Supreme Court, you know, we thought about the Supreme Court differently, not long ago,

• 5:11Speaker 02

  right? The Supreme Court was the Supreme Court. And so now it's different.

• 5:18Tucker Carlson?

  So what accounts, I mean, there are a million ways to measure this, and all of them-

• 5:22Speaker 02

  Do you agree?

• 5:23Tucker Carlson?

  Well, of course I agree. Of course I agree. And I agree with you that every measurement shows the same result, which is the country is polarized.

• 5:29Speaker 02

  Okay, so we know where we are.

• 5:30Tucker Carlson?

  But what, completely, and we're not sure how it's resolved, but I think it's also worth pausing to ask, what hap, what was the change that led to the polarization? That was unimaginable even 35 years ago?

• 5:45Speaker 02

  The change was in a combination of the system working well for the majority of the people and which has to do with the majority of the people not being productive. You have productivity equals income. Right. Okay, so now if you take education and you take measures of how productive or how well-trained you're going to be, you see, and therefore also income, your productivity, you see by all of these measures, great, great gaps that exist. So by way of example, is unicorns and the changes that we're seeing, fabulous changes

• 6:30Speaker 02

  in what we're seeing in technologies. Yes. But it really comes down to, if you take the number of people who have been making those changes and having unicorns in this wonderful world, they go to the best universities and they make these wonderful things happen. That's about 3 million people in a country of a little over 330 million people. And if you take the average, 60% of Americans have below a sixth grade reading level. 60% of Americans. So when we deal with education, you have to make that population productive and through

• 7:11Speaker 02

  productivity, they become educated and they become productive, they earn money and you have a better society. So a number of things changed that. It was the combination of globalization. Yep. And technology. Think about, I remember, and you probably remember, what the middle class working on an assembly line at an auto plant was like and how manufacturing occurred. Yes. Okay. A combination of foreign producers and automation changed all that. Of course. So that produces a larger wealth gap. And then with that wealth gap, we also have very large values gaps.

• 7:58Tucker Carlson?

  But it's driven by the wealth gap.

• 8:00Speaker 02

  It's it's both, you know, um, some population. Here we are at the World Government Summit in Dubai. And you have very globalization and everybody, the elites, let's call them the elites, where they're among the elites, are here doing deals and, you know, facing questions and all of that. And at the same time, then there's those who are dealing with their basics. So, um, wealth gaps contribute to it, but there's also values gaps.

• 8:32Tucker Carlson?

  Technology is part of the reason that we're here.

• 8:37Speaker 02

  Religion.

• 8:39Tucker Carlson?

  Yes.

• 8:40Speaker 02

  You know, belief systems. These are important, too.

• 8:44Tucker Carlson?

  Of course. But we're on the edge of this AI transformation, which seems like it's going to accelerate the trends that have led us to where we are right now. So what do you, I mean, if artificial intelligence, you know, increases efficiency but leaves an even greater number of people without meaningful work in the United States, what happens?

• 9:06Speaker 02

  There needs to be a game plan.

• 9:09Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah.

• 9:10Speaker 02

  Okay. There needs to be a game plan. That's the main thing. In other words, I can describe the circumstance.

• 9:18Tucker Carlson?

  Yes.

• 9:19Speaker 02

  Okay. And we can agree that there needs to be a game plan.

• 9:22Tucker Carlson?

  Well, let me ask you since.

• 9:25Speaker 02

  I'm not responsible for the game plan.

• 9:27Tucker Carlson?

  But since you know everybody and you spend your life talking to everybody and, you know, you're one of the world's biggest investors, so, you know, you're taking these questions seriously. Are you familiar with a game plan in progress?

• 9:38Speaker 02

  There is not a game plan.

• 9:40Tucker Carlson?

  At all?

• 9:41Speaker 02

  No.

• 9:42Tucker Carlson?

  That seems crazy.

• 9:43Speaker 02

  You know, yeah, it seems crazy. It seems a. We are going from a transition, I'm just being analytical, right?

• 9:53Tucker Carlson?

  Yes, of course.

• 9:53Speaker 02

  Mechanical, okay. We are going from a transition in which there is, I don't know, collectivism, a multinational, you know, all the constituents working together kind of environment that has also created a bureaucracy and inefficiencies and so on. So you're going from an environment in which there was a World Health Organization, a World Trade Organization, a World Bank and all of that, to unilateral, in my own interest.

• 10:33Speaker 02

  In other words, as a country or within a country, as a constituency, my tribe, what is my interest and you're going to fight for it. So we have evolved into that kind of lay of the land.

• 10:47Tucker Carlson?

  Yes.

• 10:48Speaker 02

  Situation. And so the question is almost, what is the "we"? Who is in control? Okay? I mean, we change control very quickly.

• 10:59Tucker Carlson?

  I've noticed.

• 11:00Speaker 02

  And then, who has the plan? So now you get in control, you fight to get into control, you're in control, you gotta do things quickly, and you're doing things quickly. You know, we don't have the continuity to be able to work together, to be able to have a plan.

• 11:16Tucker Carlson?

  Well, to be more specific about it, I would say the people developing the technologies. So they would be various Chinese companies, of course, but also Google and Microsoft, Sam Altman.

• 11:29Speaker 02

  Tucker, you're so idealistic, but...

• 11:31Tucker Carlson?

  No, no, I'm...

• 11:32Speaker 02

  Realistic, yes. We all should work together.

• 11:35Tucker Carlson?

  No, no, no, I'm merely saying, if I'm, you know, unleashing something on the global population, then I think it's fair to ask me, like, what, you know, like, what do you expect to happen to everybody?

• 11:47Speaker 02

  I think, no, no, but I think, that's what I mean. The notion that it's fair to, denies the reality that we're in an environment of pursuit of self-interest.

• 12:00Speaker 02

  So if you take the fight, let's say of technologies, um, of course, the one who wants to get the latest AI out wants to beat the other one who does it, let alone an American firm and a Chinese firm. And I'm just trying to describe the reality to you, Tucker. So now let's look at those realities. That's the reality. So when you say they should, okay, that's the theoretical should.

• 12:28Tucker Carlson?

  Yes.

• 12:28Speaker 02

  They should come up with rules that is better for the harmony of the people as a whole. Okay, I agree they should.

• 12:36Tucker Carlson?

  I guess what I'm saying is I'm once again disappointed by people.

• 12:40Speaker 02

  Oh, you gotta grow up, Tucker.

• 12:43Tucker Carlson?

  I know. I'm 55, I'm still disappointed, but you're absolutely right. Um, and I'm not, not here to sort of inspire a moral lecture from you or deliver one. I just want to kind of know what you think is going to happen. Um, so you have these technologies. Is it fair to say that they really are as transformative, they're as big a deal?

• 13:02Speaker 02

  Hugely. The greatest. So I've studied history, right?

• 13:06Tucker Carlson?

  Yes.

• 13:07Speaker 02

  I study, um, you know, what was the impact of the printing press and what was the impact of, for the industrial revolutions and so on? This, in my opinion, is the biggest impact that we have because it will revolutionize all thinking that applies to everything, that applies to everything. So whatever you're doing, it will make it much more efficient, much more powerful, but that includes wars too, you know? Everything is going to be radically transformed because anything that we apply thinking to is going to be very much transformed by it.

• 13:46Tucker Carlson?

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• 14:28Tucker Carlson?

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• 15:08Tucker Carlson?

  is, big tech, big pharma, and big food combine together to form an incredibly malevolent force, pumping you full of garbage, unhealthy food with artificial sugars, and hurting you, and hurting the entire country. So with Levels, you'll be able to see immediately what all of this is doing to you. You get access to real-time personalized data, and it's a critical step to changing your behavior. Those of us who like Oreos can tell you firsthand. This isn't talking to your doctor in an annual physical, looking backwards about things you did in the past. This is up-to-the-second information on how your body is responding to different foods and activities, the things that give you stress,

• 15:48Tucker Carlson?

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• 17:14Tucker Carlson?

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• 17:59Tucker Carlson?

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• 18:29Tucker Carlson?

  Can you give us some concrete examples that you believe will come to pass, you know, in the next few years? What will change that we at this point can understand?

• 18:38Speaker 02

  Well, right now, according, tests of AIs is we, all of them, can pass tests that are equivalent to the PhDs in all fields in one mind. So that there is what we call malle paths, that people who can think both across domains. So in that, we have these operating so that it's not just like a PhD in one area.

• 19:21Speaker 02

  It's like a PhD in all areas. And that it could look across those areas and give you answers and operate that way. That has created the, there's an acceleration of this because it compounds. As it learns, the learning compounds and it produces that. So that is a reality today. People just haven't yet experienced all of that. And so you're very quickly going to be in a situation where the, the problems are going to be given to it. You're going to ask it strategies and so on, that can take into consideration all of the things that are happening from everywhere and how the cause effect relationships work. Think about it this way.

• 20:06Speaker 02

  There's so much complexity in the world. Everything that we're, you know, what happened, there's, there are economic policies or economic things, there are financial things, there are health things, there are all of these things. And they all relate to each other. It's, you know, it's called, I think, the butterfly syndrome. You know, butterfly changes, flaps its wings, it has these

• 20:30Tucker Carlson?

  Of course.

• 20:31Speaker 02

  Secondary consequences. This is all very complex. It's very complex for the human mind to think about those things.

• 20:37Tucker Carlson?

  Yes.

• 20:38Speaker 02

  Having a situation where it can all be taken into consideration. And be a partner, a thought partner that can actually go beyond our capacities. To think about those relationships. And in thinking about those relationships and so on, it has an enormous impact. Somebody in medical area was giving me the example of learning about all the causes. But with the data that they're going to have on each one of us. About what were our experiences and what is our diagnosis of your each of the parts? And you watch that over time. What air do you breathe? What environment are you in? What stress are you in and all that?

• 21:22Speaker 02

  That there will be the understanding of these cause effect relationships. That in turn change things. And then you go down to the microscopic level. Of dealing with practically at the molecular cell level in dealing with these problems. Okay, the changing of DNA and these types of things. All of those, we are in the midst of a tremendous revolutionary change.

• 21:49Tucker Carlson?

  What about the field of economics? Can you take kind of the art and the guessing out of it?

• 21:53Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 21:53Tucker Carlson?

  At this point, so you're saying you have said many times, you've written a lot about it. But the need of governments to get down to 3% of GDP with their debt. So or else everything collapses. How do you do that at all these political consequences? The population doesn't want less money spent on them. Obviously, you could get, you know, governments falling and stuff. Wouldn't AI just solve that for you? You said it produces strategy.

• 22:19Speaker 02

  There's, there's. Does AI control human nature?

• 22:25Tucker Carlson?

  No, but these are.

• 22:27Speaker 02

  Human nature. My bet is that human nature is going to be the biggest force. And it's all going to come down to like how we are with each other.

• 22:37Tucker Carlson?

  I'm so glad though, so there'll be room for human beings still, even as we're changing DNA and implanting chips in our brains and stuff.

• 22:44Speaker 02

  Well, if not, we're lost. And if so, uh, we're dealing with each other.

• 22:50Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah.

• 22:50Speaker 02

  I don't know how well that's going to go either.

• 22:53Tucker Carlson?

  But I wonder like that, you know, there's still debates. I mean, you're effectively an economist. The debates about supply side versus demand side, like what is, you know, what is the near and far term effect of these economic policies?

• 23:05Speaker 02

  We're going to be able to understand at a micro level, how things work better.

• 23:11Tucker Carlson?

  Exactly.

• 23:12Speaker 02

  Okay. So, uh, by the way, um, again, I put out this, um, this writings, uh, this study that shows the mechanics. And I want to convey that mechanic so everybody can see the mechanics, but you're going to go down to a molecular level. That means like nowadays, um, we or policymakers like the Federal Reserve, think about, uh, something like inflation.

• 23:36Tucker Carlson?

  Right.

• 23:37Speaker 02

  And there'll be maybe five measures of inflation. And we're using the term inflation because our minds are limited in its capacity to the, of the number of things we could think about.

• 23:49Tucker Carlson?

  Right.

• 23:50Speaker 02

  When we're now in this new reality, which we now are, you can go down to a molecular level essentially in saying, I could see all the different transactions of what was bought and what was sold.

• 24:03Tucker Carlson?

  Exactly.

• 24:03Speaker 02

  And why? And now I can really have a level of understanding. We don't have to be at this grand level that we don't. We're going to be at the molecular level of understanding individual transactions and what's affecting them and be able to deploy resources at the individual molecular level, just like we can do it in biology or, uh, physical existence and so on.

• 24:29Tucker Carlson?

  So, I mean, this will, lots of downsides to AI, obviously. I dread it. I would end it if I could. But there are upsides and this sounds like one of them. So like if you-

• 24:39Speaker 02

  Of course.

• 24:40Tucker Carlson?

  So we have a COVID again, and we're thinking about, should we issue COVID checks? With AI, we can know.

• 24:45Speaker 02

  What the money's going for and that'll change everything will change the controls. And it but it is of course a two edged sword, right? It'll change who controls it, who has access to it? Who can use it detrimentally to other people? All of these things are part of the question.

• 25:03Tucker Carlson?

  Is there any way to avoid like totalitarian social controls under AI with AI?

• 25:09Speaker 02

  I think there's a question of whether you can have social and totalitarian controls. Or maybe you just have anarchy. I mean, I don't know where we're going. I can't tell you, I cannot tell you what this world. I do, I do believe we're going to go through a time warp. Okay, what I mean, it's going to feel like you're going through over the next five years. And that environment is because of these five major forces that do all of these things. And the changes in the technologies, particularly artificial intelligence and related technologies. So the world five years from now is going to be a radically different world.

• 25:51Speaker 02

  And I don't know what that's going to look like when you go into the world of quantum computing. And what quantum is like in so many different ways. It raises questions of, you know, what is that like? I'm not smart enough to tell you what that world is going to look like.

• 26:05Tucker Carlson?

  Investor for 50 years.

• 26:06Speaker 02

  Who is in control? I don't know who's in.

• 26:08Tucker Carlson?

  Okay, so but right. So this is like the opposite of what you've done your whole life where you try to predict, you know, five years hence that's your whole business, right?

• 26:16Speaker 02

  Well, that's, I said, my, my business is try to predict. But I would, I'd say, first thing, whatever success I've had in life has more to been due to my knowing how to deal with what I don't know than anything I know. Okay, so how you deal with what you don't know.

• 26:37Tucker Carlson?

  I believe that.

• 26:38Speaker 02

  Is so important. So I guess my, my business in a nutshell is I try to find a bunch of bets that I think are good bets. But to diversify well so that I have a bunch of diversified bets. Because I, I do not know. I mean, in terms of my actual track record, I've probably been right about 65% of the time. Okay, and I, and any one bad bet can kill you. So I've known how to deal with that. That's what I've learned, including how to deal with what I don't know.

• 27:09Tucker Carlson?

  So now you're describing an environment where you can't really know anything about the world in five years.

• 27:15Speaker 02

  You, well, I can know, I could place good bets, okay? There are some things that are highly knowable, okay? Highly knowable, like they say, you know, death and taxes.

• 27:27Tucker Carlson?

  Right.

• 27:27Speaker 02

  Okay? Uh, demographics, okay? Um, so I can know or have a view, for example, that owning, I believe, owning dead assets is not going to be a good thing. So I could think about alternative storeholds of wealth. I could think about that. I can place some bets that allow me, you know, they're not the certain bets, but I can place enough bets and have enough diversification that I can be relatively confident of some things, but never absolutely all totally confident. But I think when we're coming back anyway, that's the reality. I'm just describing my, our reality the best I can.

• 28:10Speaker 02

  That's why people who are confident in the future and are just experiencing the present, you know, right now, people are describing, all of them are describing how things are. And almost everybody thinks the future is going to be a modified version of the present.

• 28:31Tucker Carlson?

  A pure extrapolation forward, yeah.

• 28:32Speaker 02

  Okay? Things are good.

• 28:34Tucker Carlson?

  All right, I get it.

• 28:35Speaker 02

  Okay? Things, well, I'll guarantee you, there will be big changes.

• 28:40Tucker Carlson?

  So those are dumb people, you're saying, making those calls?

• 28:43Speaker 02

  I'm not, I'm, I'm saying it's understa, it's understandable, but when you study change.

• 28:49Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah.

• 28:49Speaker 02

  And the nature of change, it's a, um, you know, the world changes in dramatic ways because of causes that we can look at and get a good understanding of.

• 29:03Speaker 02

  But we can't be sure about anything because of the nature.

• 29:07Tucker Carlson?

  But in this specific, I mean, that's always true and wise people understand that like you don't, you're not in control of the future. Of course, you're not God. But in this specific case where there are specific technologies whose development, we understand because we're watching it, it almost feels like there's no human agency here. Like, not one person ever suggests like, well, why don't we just stop the development of the technologies by force?

• 29:29Speaker 02

  Well, there's, I think you're being theoretical again.

• 29:34Tucker Carlson?

  Well, I don't know.

• 29:34Speaker 02

  Just look how the system works, okay? Who makes what decisions how? Like, I think you have the bias of we should stop all these technologies and just stop it. Somebody else has another position, view, and the other people have other views. And as, and then there's a means by which those views turn into actions, okay? And so it's correct, the system that we're dealing in will make those types of decisions. And we could discuss the pros and cons of all of those things, but that's just how it works, right?

• 30:09Tucker Carlson?

  I don't know. I mean, there, there are all kinds of pernicious longstanding things that we've stopped, like the global slave trade. The Brits are like, we're not for this, we're stopping it. And they did.

• 30:17Speaker 02

  Tucker, you, you are using that we stopped, okay?

• 30:21Tucker Carlson?

  No, Britain stopped it.

• 30:22Speaker 02

  Okay, but I'm just trying to say, you have to look at the system and say, who has their hands on the levers of power?

• 30:30Tucker Carlson?

  Right.

• 30:31Speaker 02

  And what will they do? And what are their motivations?

• 30:35Speaker 02

  How does the system work?

• 30:37Tucker Carlson?

  I think that's right.

• 30:37Speaker 02

  Okay, how does the machine work to make decisions? Okay, we, so if we can agree on this person makes these types of decisions about these things, and it works this way, then we can say, we, the collective we, can do that. But this theoretical collective we that is going to make decisions, like, we could sit here and be very theoretical.

• 31:00Tucker Carlson?

  I, I get it. A determined nation probably can't stop this. So that, my second question is, you keep hearing there's this AI race between the United States and China.

• 31:10Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 31:11Tucker Carlson?

  Is it true that one country will be completely dominant by the end of this race? And that that will be meaningful, or?

• 31:18Speaker 02

  I think, no, I think that what's going to happen is... And again, I'm speaking now probabilistically. I think that there will be different types of developments, but by and large, you, it's very difficult to keep intellectual property.

• 31:33Tucker Carlson?

  Yes.

• 31:34Speaker 02

  That you, when you take the products of the intellectual property, you put them in the public.

• 31:38Tucker Carlson?

  Exactly.

• 31:39Speaker 02

  That'll last about six months, I mean.

• 31:41Tucker Carlson?

  Right.

• 31:41Speaker 02

  At most, and you'll develop your, the nearest, um, and, and so intellectual property protections. And isolation is probably not going to work. So, um, and so now we're going to have, um, um, different advantages and disadvantages. Let's say, for example, in China's case, there are many fantastic chips, not quite at the same level. And see, we design chips, but we can't produce chips effectively. We can't produce, by and large, we can't produce things, any manufactured goods, as effectively, cost effectively, by and large, we have a problem doing that. Um, so what we'll, we'll do is we'll design those better chips.

• 32:26Speaker 02

  You won't have the intellectual protections. And you're going to then have the production of things in China at a very inexpensive way. Manufacturing, China has about, uh, thirty-three percent of the manufacturing in the world, which is more than the United States, Europe, and Japan combined. They manufacture effectively cheaply. They will embed chips in the manufacturing, the application of chips, they're going to prob, they are more ahead on, China's more ahead on, the application of chips, robotics. So we're talking about just thinking, but when you connect the thinking to bodies that are automatic bodies too.

• 33:05Tucker Carlson?

  Yes.

• 33:06Speaker 02

  And you have robotics and so on, they're ahead on that type of thing. So different entities are going to be ahead in different ways. And we're going to then be in this world in which there's competition in that world. And then there's an attempt to be protectionist or whatever, or to fight those differences. And that's what the world looks like.

• 33:26Tucker Carlson?

  Does, uh, the combination of AI and robotics bring manufacturing back to the United States?

• 33:31Speaker 02

  Um, we are behind in, in both of those areas.

• 33:34Tucker Carlson?

  Yes.

• 33:35Speaker 02

  Uh, greatly behind, you know, um, so, um, you know, I, I would say we're not going to be have competitive advantages in those things. What we're competitive in is that small percentage of the population that is uniquely inventive, in terms of inventiveness, you know, the number of Nobel Prize winners in the United States. The United States dominates Nobel Prize winners in the world. The inventiveness, best universities and so on. We have a system that is a legal system and a capital market system, and we can bring the best from the world all to the United States to create

• 34:20Speaker 02

  an environment if we could work well together in that inventiveness with rule of law working and all of that working, we have those things that are our competitive advantage. We do not have manufacturing and we're not going to go back and be competitive in manufacturing with China in our lifetimes, I don't believe. Okay, so now the question is how we deal with that.

• 34:45Tucker Carlson?

  Our inventiveness, you just said, and many have said, comes from our education system, from our universities. But then you began the conversation by saying that AI is already-

• 34:55Speaker 02

  And foreigners. If you look at that population, this 3 million people who's, you know, just basically changing, about half of them are foreigners. If you can attract the best and the brightest-

• 35:05Tucker Carlson?

  Right.

• 35:06Speaker 02

  And there's a lot to be attracted to in the United States from the best and the brightest, because we are a country of all of these different people-

• 35:13Tucker Carlson?

  Right.

• 35:14Speaker 02

  ... operating this way, and we create these equal opportunities. Look who's running some of the countries with companies, they come from different places. If we can have the best of the world in the world come in that kind of environment to be creative and so on, we can invent and so on, but we can't produce.

• 35:31Tucker Carlson?

  But those, the people you're describing have come to our universities, that's basically-

• 35:36Speaker 02

  That's right.

• 35:37Tucker Carlson?

  Silicon Valley's there, because Stanford's there.

• 35:38Speaker 02

  That's right.

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• 37:43Tucker Carlson?

  But you began the conversation by saying that AI is now at the point where, you know, the machines have the equivalent knowledge of a PhD in every different topic. So like at some point. Are you gonna have universities?

• 37:55Speaker 02

  We'll redefine what universities are like, but you're going to have that combination of things working together? Because still, we're a long way from, not a long way, but we're away from the point of the decision-making will be made by the AI. Because, okay, and the wisdom will be by the AI. Like, you're not gonna have the AI determine how you raise your kid. And different people will raise their children differently, and so on. The actual, you'll rely on it, but it's really the magic for the foreseeable future is remarkable

• 38:34Speaker 02

  people with remarkable technologies producing remarkable changes, and then we're going to have then the consequences of that.

• 38:43Tucker Carlson?

  As long as human decision-making plays a role, I'm totally fine with it.

• 38:47Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 38:48Tucker Carlson?

  You say that the university's gonna change, I mean, how could it not? I thought the internet was gonna get rid of universities, it didn't happen. But, I mean, how long does it take for the current model to change? It's pretty resistant to change.

• 39:01Speaker 02

  I think it's, yes, it's slow to change, and those who change slowly will be left behind, and then you'll have the best, I would say, you see things taking place, but anyway, it'll, I would expect that it's going to, life is more like a game, I think. You know, it's almost like, it's almost like a video game. And you're going to be able to have real-world learning experiences in many different ways to be able to provide education, but it's gonna be interactive. You're gonna see a type of merging, whether you like it or not.

• 39:44Speaker 02

  You're gonna see a type of merging of the man and the artificial intelligence.

• 39:51Tucker Carlson?

  Does that were you?

• 39:55Speaker 02

  Of course, it worries me, and then it excites me. You know, what worries me most fundamentally is how people are with each other. Yes. Can we put harmony and happiness, togetherness? Can we resolve decisions, issues? Can we deal with these issues together? That is the most important thing. I think we emphasize too much the wonderful, remarkable things that we get from AI, like we'll have greater life expectancy and less disease, and we can have all of those things. But the question is, do we have harmony, quality of life?

• 40:40Speaker 02

  You know, I did a study, also I put it out free online, which is ratings, lots of statistics used for rating various conditions of countries. Twenty-four top countries. It's called the Global Powers Index. It's online free for anybody who wants to look at it. And I rated different powers, power, economic power, military power, education power, and so on. Then I rated health, how long you live, the diseases you're encumbered by, and so on. And happiness, what your happiness level is. And what's interesting about that is that the measures of power don't have a...

• 41:25Speaker 02

  past a certain level of living standards, don't have a correlation with health, which is amazing because you have all the money to produce the health, and have no correlation with happiness. That, like, for example, in the United States, which is the most powerful country in the world by these measures, our life expectancy is five years less than Canadians, so they're right next to us, and five years less than countries of equal income levels. Okay? So health, we don't... There's... Poor correlation.

• 42:08Speaker 02

  Um, and in happiness, there's no correlation. The, like, Indonesia, um, has the second highest happiness rating, you know? So, all I'm saying is, we think about also how we work with each other, how we are with each other. The, the highest, um, uh, determinant of happiness is community.

• 42:33Tucker Carlson?

  Of course.

• 42:34Speaker 02

  If you have a good community, you have happiness and it has a positive effect on health. So I think it all comes down to how we are with each other that is going to, in dealing with all of the questions that you're raising.

• 42:50Tucker Carlson?

  There's been no advance in, like, changing human nature over time, right? I mean, what's a technological advance? No advance in getting along with each other.

• 42:59Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's, uh, it goes in ebbs and cycles. I would look at it this way. Um, there are many religions in the world. Uh, most of the religions have two components to them. Um, the first component is, you know, follow the word of God and you have to follow it, you know, in, in that way. Uh, but the others are about harmony. And they are, in other words, how do we create a harmonious society? You know, the, so you look at the Ten Commandments or something and you, and their rules for how do you achieve harmony? And there are things like karma. Okay, how do you achieve harmony? So different societies have different ways of trying to achieve harmony.

• 43:44Speaker 02

  We, so I think that's important. Harmony. I think it comes down to some basic things, like, um, I watch, I study this thing and I go around the world. I think first, um...

• 43:56Speaker 02

  Do you educate, raise your children well? Okay. In other words, educate them in capabilities, so they're capable, but also in civility and how they are with each other. Because a capable civil person will come out to a society in which they can work well together to be productive. That people have to be productive, right? So, but in order to be productive, you have to have harmony. They have to deal with the questions. I'm answering your question about how we deal with this. I'm saying we have to deal with it together. There's only in an environment where there's harmony, rather than fighting, are you going to be able to address

• 44:39Speaker 02

  the types of questions that you're raising, right? How do you, you know, when you're asking me, you know, is what's going to happen with AI? And then you say, we need to do this and we need to do that. It strikes me that it depends how the we's deal with each other. To be able to deal with those things is the most important things. And there are basics of how we deal with each other. That's the most important thing. I agree with that.

• 45:07Tucker Carlson?

  Last question. You didn't, I don't think you grew up in like a billionaire world.

• 45:12Speaker 02

  No, my dad was a jazz musician and, you know, we had a low middle-class family, but I have everything I ever needed.

• 45:19Tucker Carlson?

  Well, so that's kind of my question. Now you live, obviously, in a billionaire world. Which is, where do you run into more happy people?

• 45:25Speaker 02

  Oh, almost generally, if you get past the things that you, your basics, you know, if I can, you know, health, education, habitat, and you get past those, you've got everything you need. And then if you have community, you have everything you need. That is the best.

• 45:46Tucker Carlson?

  Ray Dalio, thank you very much.

• 45:47Speaker 02

  Thank you.

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• 46:37Tucker Carlson?

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