The NFL’s Holiday Overload, Darnold’s Crazy Year, Week 16 Murders, and Guess the Lines

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal to discuss the Cowboys sneaking by the Buccaneers on 'SNF,' Commanders-Eagles, another Sam Darnold–led Vikings comeback, and Bengals-Browns (01:04), before discussing the Raiders dropping several spots in the draft order after beating the Jaguars, the Dolphins ending the 49ers' playoff hopes, Panthers-Cardinals, Jets-Rams, Patriots-Bills (28:51), the Saturday NFL games, Usyk-Fury, a bunch of NFL observations through 16 weeks, and a tribute to Rickey Henderson (53:19). Finally, they guess the lines for NFL Week 17 (01:05:47), and close the show with Parent Corner (01:25:26). Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Cousin Sal Producers: Kyle Crichton and Chia Hao Tat The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Bill Simmons?

  The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network, where we have a new rewatch of those coming on Monday night. We did Home Alone 2, because it's a Christmas movie, unlike Die Hard. It's also a great New York movie. It was me and Kyle Brandt. You can watch that on the Ringer Movies YouTube channel as well. You can watch all the clips from this podcast on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. Cousin Sal joins us every Sunday night. You can watch us live on YouTube on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel, or you can just watch us on the Spotify app because we run these as video podcasts. This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats. It's football season. Uber Eats is delivering deals every game day. This week, get 10 free boneless wings from Wingstop on qualifying orders. Game on, flavor on, Wingstop is here.

• 0:43Bill Simmons?

  So if your fantasy league is coming over for some in-person smack talk, order Wingstop on Uber Eats and get 10 boneless wings free. It's the perfect way to keep everyone fed tonight so you can focus on the game. No matter who scores big tonight, you'll score a great deal. Order now and get 10 boneless wings free from Wingstop, only on Uber Eats. Offer valid from September 14th to September 27th, and from November 2nd to November 16th. Order minimum before taxes and fees is required. See retailer's storefront for details. Taxes, fees, and terms apply. Product availability varies by region. Exclusions may apply. See app for details. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. Excitement is in the air. That's right, it's the start of NBA season.

• 1:26Bill Simmons?

  I can't wait to get together with friends, share some Michelob Ultras, and watch Tip Off. Plus, as the official beer sponsor of the NBA, Michelob Ultra is getting you closer to the action with the experiences that make you feel like you're courtside to actual courtside tickets. Enter now for a chance to win at michelobultra.com/courtside. Michelob Ultra Courtside 26 to 27. No purchase necessary. Open in U.S. residents 21+. Begins on October 1st, 2026. Ends on June 30th, 2027. Multiple entry periods. See official rules at michelobultra.com/courtside for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes, and details. Coming up, the Cuz and I breaking down week 16 in a football stretch of games that

• 2:08Bill Simmons?

  will seemingly never end, and it's turning my brain to tapioca. It's all next. First, our friends from Pro Jap.

• 2:35Bill Simmons?

  All right, we are taping this, 8:44. Sal, are you happy? What are your emotions right now?

• 2:43Speaker 01

  It's worth the wait. So worth the wait. I gotta tell you, Bill, I know, I can't, I can't root against them. I hate it. I know it cost us a draft, you know, draft picks in certain order. And I know, I know I have Tampa Bay to win the NFC South, and yet when that defense plays with the intensity that it did, it is very hard to root against the Cowboy. You have to feel that way, too. Come on, come on. I mean, your team didn't win, but you know what I'm saying, right?

• 3:08Bill Simmons?

  I thought you were doing Collinsworth, but you're doing Sal. I thought you were gonna do that. This is the greatest game I've ever seen. I've never seen a football game like this, Mike. It was, it was the greatest, everything is the greatest secondary is the greatest interception. That run from Baker is the greatest. The producers are in Chris's ear like, Chris, please stop saying how the Cowboys have nothing to play for. Like five minutes later, Dallas is nothing to play for, Mike. They had nothing to play for. I don't even know why they care. Why do they trust them?

• 3:41Speaker 01

  Get back on the buzz. I want to watch Vita Vea. I wish he would moon me. I'm gonna rename my son Vita Vea. You hear that, Jack Collinsworth? Vita Vea Collinsworth now.

• 3:55Bill Simmons?

  Mike, this is the hardest hitting game that doesn't matter at all, and everybody should turn the channel that I've ever seen.

• 4:04Bill Simmons?

  That was quite an ending to quite a weekend and I gotta say, I'm footballled out.

• 4:10Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 4:11Bill Simmons?

  I, I just didn't want to watch this game, especially once, uh, once, once Dallas was eliminated, even though they're already eliminated, but I watched it because we had to watch for the pod. But you know, big picture, this, this football stretch we're in, we had Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, tomorrow, to Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, nine of 12 days of football. And I'm already, I'm already feeling like I'm at Fog at a chow, ready to tap out, ready to turn.

• 4:39Speaker 01

  You're turning the red? You're going red already?

• 4:41Bill Simmons?

  We got another game tomorrow. I'm like, I'm going red.

• 4:43Speaker 01

  Red disco.

• 4:44Bill Simmons?

  I can't have any more meat. This is too much, especially the college football. It's too much.

• 4:49Speaker 01

  It's a lot, man. It's a lot. Yeah, you're right. And it started, they had a Friday on, but you know, you and I love it. We love the money line favorites and the money line favorites came in six in a row between the college and pro games Friday and Saturday. So that was a nice little nest egg we built, right?

• 5:03Bill Simmons?

  All the faves hit, except for Philly, which we will talk about, thanks to Jalen Hertz. But basically any sort of money line parlay with any reliable, good to great team.

• 5:14Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 5:14Bill Simmons?

  Five, six points and up, hit. It was your kind of weekend. I was thinking about you because Usik was fighting too. Our guy that we love betting on, he hasn't lost since the first Obama term.

• 5:25Speaker 01

  Right.

• 5:26Bill Simmons?

  And, uh, just get to throw him in with different parlays. You get the Buffalo money line and the Green Bay money line, but Philly was the letdown one.

• 5:34Speaker 01

  That was awesome. I know. It was entertaining, right? And it's, it's nice to win Christmas week, but yeah, Philly, and by the way, with Hertz going out, the first thing we thought of was our friend Brad and Hench, who both on separate leagues had Hertz starting.

• 5:48Bill Simmons?

  The two leagues were in, yeah. Our two craziest friends had Hertz.

• 5:52Speaker 01

  The most volatile, infantile fantasy rooters and owners in the, I mean, Hench was talking about the independent neurologist for 14 hours straight on text. He was so upset.

• 6:04Bill Simmons?

  He kept texting him. Hench, Hench is like diametrically opposed to Chris Dwyer and concussion protocol. So get him back in there. And then our friend Brad, who hasn't won our knockout league, I don't think since we've had the knockout rule, but he's been voted out three times.

• 6:19Speaker 01

  Yeah, I haven't heard from him. I'm honestly, we may have to do like a, an unplanned wellness check. We've done a few of those, but not, not for fantasy.

• 6:28Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. So Hertz ends up with 4.5 points. He gets, uh, he, he crushes anybody who had him. Not his fault, but uh, not the big story from that game. Cause Jaden Daniels, not only locked down offensive rookie of the year, I think five TDs, 82 rushing, um, another come from behind win, another like super exciting DC moment.

• 6:50Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 6:51Bill Simmons?

  And it feels like his mojo came back the last couple. He was definitely hurt there for, I don't know how long, but now he's starting to look like him again, but that was such a great win. It felt like they had lost that game five different times. I didn't even know if it was a bad Eagles loss. You know, they had Kenny Pickett and I, I had the Eagles in a parlay and then Kenny Pickett's in there halfway through the first quarter and you're going, the fuck? Like I definitely never wanted to bet on Kenny Pickett again in my life, but he actually roped me in. I was like, he seems okay. And then.

• 7:23Speaker 01

  Not offered insurance. Yeah. Yeah. I, uh, God bless, you know, Kami Fan and Ringer pregame show co-host Joe House, but, and I picked this Washington team to make the playoffs. And Jaden, thanks for the offensive rookie of the year loot, but I can't wait to bet against this team in the wild card round. I mean, the starting quarterback goes out, five turnovers for Washington and a drop pass, maybe the worst big drop pass of the year by Devante Smith, which would have run the clock out.

• 7:52Bill Simmons?

  There were two, cause there was that long one to Barclay too, was another backbreaker that.

• 7:56Speaker 01

  He should have had that too.

• 7:57Bill Simmons?

  By the way, the Giants fans have always said, he never catches those. He's got, he's got like butter fingers on big pass plays. And that was yet another one, but the Devante Smith one, there was a lot of those today though, in the cold weather games. I think we forget how cold it is. Like the Bills, Pats game by the second half, everybody looked like they were wearing oven mitts.

• 8:15Speaker 01

  Yeah. It's not as cold when we're screaming at the TV in our toasty living rooms.

• 8:19Bill Simmons?

  You know, wearing a blanket. Yeah.

• 8:21Speaker 01

  Yeah. But yeah, but Washington needed every, every bit of everything we just named to, to win that game. I mean, are they the full of shit team? I mean, they, you know, starting with the Hail Mary. I know maybe a few unlucky breaks with injuries, but honestly, as a seven seed, I'm good.

• 8:37Bill Simmons?

  10 and five right now? The Hail Mary was stupid. They had one other really stupid win and then this one. But I mean, this one they earned, you know, like you have, what was it? First down and goal from the nine under 20 seconds left. That should be like the most impi- It's like a nine yard two-point conversion. Guys wide open. The Eagles just completely fucked it up.

• 8:59Speaker 01

  But yeah, that was bad.

• 9:00Bill Simmons?

  So in that case, I felt like that was almost a, it wasn't a bad Eagles loss until that last drive. Cause if your defense is that good, everybody's like, this is the most well-rounded, including me. This is the most well-rounded team that Detroit's done. Their defense is gone. The Eagles, they can get stops. Not only did they not get stops, like that was like one of the worst touchdowns anyone's given up this year.

• 9:22Speaker 01

  It was really bad.

• 9:22Bill Simmons?

  Guys wide open in the middle of the end zone.

• 9:25Speaker 01

  You have to think he'll be back, Hertz, right? And so if that's the two, seven matchup.

• 9:29Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 9:29Speaker 01

  Now it's, now it spells doom, I think for Washington. I don't think there's any way Philly loses that game.

• 9:35Bill Simmons?

  Those games are always weird with them though.

• 9:37Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 9:37Bill Simmons?

  How many weird Philly, Washington games can we have?

• 9:40Speaker 01

  It's true.

• 9:41Bill Simmons?

  And then there's always like fans from either side at both of the games.

• 9:45Speaker 01

  Philly's defense needs to be a little better. That's for damn sure. But like a lot of these top teams, you could say that for.

• 9:50Bill Simmons?

  Well, the weird part was, uh, I, I just, I didn't understand like that, that the 12 man on the field. Guys running off, all of a sudden they're just giving up like a 70 yard touchdown to give them the lead. I, there's a lot of stuff I didn't like with them, but you look at the playoff picture, like they're locked into the two seed.

• 10:10Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 10:10Bill Simmons?

  Right? So they, they have Dallas and the Giants left. Dallas, your team is like a surprisingly hard out now. I don't think that's a cross off by any means, especially if they decide to sit Hertz for a week. So if you against Penny, Penny Pickett next week, hey, you might be eight and eight. So they're locked into the two seed and then, um, The one seed is just bizarre where Detroit feels like they they've lost like one time in three months and yet somehow Minnesota is controlling everything. If they just win their last two games, they're going to be the one seed.

• 10:44Speaker 01

  Yeah, now that yeah, right now the Philly loss. Yeah, you're right. I didn't think about that. Yeah, I mean, listen, I have to, I think I have to go to Vikings intervention. You have to throw an intervention for me because every Sunday I come on here and I praise Sam Darnold and he has 32 touchdown passes now. And then Friday, I'm like, oh, who are they playing? They're not going to show up this week. I'm gonna take Seattle. And I get, I get it right, right in the keister. I mean, it's, it's ridiculous what Minnesota and Donald are doing. And I'm not, I'll probably take the Packers next week.

• 11:13Bill Simmons?

  I can't believe you just used the word keister.

• 11:16Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 11:16Bill Simmons?

  That's like, no, no, it's just mid 70s, mid 70s people and up. It's like Aunt Chippy and your dad might have gotten that one and that's it.

• 11:26Speaker 01

  I just came from seeing them. I think that's a problem. Yeah.

• 11:29Bill Simmons?

  I bet on Minnesota this week.

• 11:31Speaker 01

  Oh, you did?

• 11:32Bill Simmons?

  And mainly because we have all these Seattle bets. But I've also, I'm the same way. I said uncle with them a while ago. They're, they're legit. I don't know how many times they have to do it. And I thought what was interesting about that game. So rooting for Minnesota to score, Seattle takes the lead. Minnesota's down four. They actually have to go down and score a touchdown. There's like five minutes left. And I'm sitting there on the couch where I haven't moved for like, I don't know how many hours. And I'm like, I think Donald's gonna get this. Like, I swear that was my feeling in the car. I was like, he's gonna get it. I really think he's gonna go down the field and score.

• 12:10Speaker 01

  I thought you were gonna do the orgasm face again. I was worried there. All right.

• 12:13Bill Simmons?

  No, that was great.

• 12:14Speaker 01

  Sitting on the couch now.

• 12:16Bill Simmons?

  You know what's funny about those is when I'm doing that as a joke to make you laugh and then it gets cut out as blog posts. It's like, look at this weirdo dude. I'm like, I'm literally doing a joke. You can't cut that out. Try to make fun of me when I'm doing a joke. Anyway.

• 12:31Speaker 01

  They caught you off guard.

• 12:32Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it's like, oh my God, what's he doing? It's like, I'm doing a joke. But anyway, Minnesota down four and Donald, he's done it, I don't know how many times this year. But there's seven, eight quarterbacks in the league that I feel like can get that done. It wasn't an easy scenario, but he's got these two great receivers that always seem to be open in the right times, but that throw breaks through, he's got pressure, cuts through, throws like almost like a semi sidearm. He's got to beat the safety. It was just a great play. And then Gino became Gino at the end of the game.

• 13:03Speaker 01

  They got a little lucky because they got the face mat. Was it a face mask called on Darnold? It's one of those things where there's three guys about to sack him and one of the idiots like puts his hand on the face mask.

• 13:13Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, and then like.

• 13:14Speaker 01

  You gotta call that. There's nothing about it, but it was a great throw and he marched. He is so, so cool under pressure and marches him right down the field. And Jefferson has five touchdowns in the last three games. Like, I don't want to say he was missing. He was MIA the first 10 weeks.

• 13:29Bill Simmons?

  They were double teaming him. Yeah, they were taking him out. They were like, go throw to Addison and go throw to Hawkinson.

• 13:34Speaker 01

  They're only going to get better, I think. And so why am I going to bet against them again? God damn.

• 13:40Bill Simmons?

  I think you could, if we're just going, who do you trust the most right now? I think there's a real case for them.

• 13:49Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 13:49Bill Simmons?

  Because it always feels like they can score when they need a touchdown. Their defense can, can create enough havoc that they can get some stops. They always seem to grab a turnover when they really need one.

• 14:00Speaker 01

  And Ginkgo is always in.

• 14:01Bill Simmons?

  Yep. And I, they're exceptionally coached. We make fun of coaches a lot, like my, my Patriots today, who had two really good drives in a row to start the game, but then as the game went along, they still, wheels start to come off. We had a backward lateral on like our own eight yard line that ended up getting recovered for defensive touchdown. Like, what are we doing? Why are we having Drake May whip a screen pass to Stevenson who's already fumbled, who isn't exactly Mr. Hands in nine degree weather inside our own 10 yard line? Like, what are we doing? Why are we punting from, you know, midfield when we're down 10? You watch that stuff.

• 14:39Speaker 01

  It went on fourth and two, though. He had the nice fake there. That was fun.

• 14:42Bill Simmons?

  Well, he had the fake punt, but, but then you watch Minnesota and it's like, I just, I agree with everything they're doing. This team has it. They're really well coached. Flores is great on defense. O'Connell knows the fuck he's doing. Really good team. I'm in on the Vikings. I think they're legit.

• 14:58Speaker 01

  I think they are too, and I think they play defense. And if you talk about like the four or five top teams like, you know, obviously the Lions are, it didn't kill them today, but there's their front seven is injured, you know, they have 22 guys on IR or out. Most of those are defensive players. Um, we saw the Bills defense. I don't know how much more you need to see out of that. Who else? Philadelphia was bad today, like really just like the Chiefs and Vikings are the only two teams defensively right now with a few weeks left and I'm comfortable with.

• 15:25Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, the Pats had 28 first downs on the Bills defense today.

• 15:29Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 15:29Bill Simmons?

  Wow. We have no receivers. Like we are, we have an offensive coordinator that will do 10 dumb things a game.

• 15:35Speaker 01

  That was a winnable game.

• 15:37Bill Simmons?

  It was. We've had like six winnable games. May was that good in the second half. I'll admit it.

• 15:42Speaker 01

  Yeah. He was, I mean, you know.

• 15:45Bill Simmons?

  But when it's this cold.

• 15:46Speaker 01

  Listen, you give them, you give them 15 chances to score from inside the five. He's gonna, he's gonna hurt you. That's what he did at the end. Don't you, don't do that. Cause he will show you up.

• 15:57Bill Simmons?

  Come on. Why are you making fun of me? My teammate, I have the second pick in the draft right now. Antonio Pierce.

• 16:03Speaker 01

  That is nice.

• 16:04Bill Simmons?

  Antonio Pierce like fist pumping in the sidelines. Like, we did it. We dropped from two to six. We got this. Um, wait, going back to that, let's talk Washington, uh, Philly, Minnesota, that whole vortex. So the Hertz concussion, I think is in the running for one of the biggest football moments of the year. Because it didn't just feel like it swung the seeds. It also happened during semifinals in fantasy.

• 16:33Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah.

• 16:33Bill Simmons?

  I was trying to think of like what injury that, you know, he'll be fine in a week or so, but what like relatively minor but sucky injury would have had more impact on more people. Hertz is like a top five fantasy quarterback. Like I guarantee he was on all the same. So it was just like a crazy moment. And then watching Pickett go in there and you're thinking like for Washington, like this is really good for them. Like they, they, if they're any good, they should probably steal this game. And then they couldn't do it for two hours, but so that happened. And then the Minnesota thing and Seattle's out now, it seems like, right? I mean, they're not officially out, but.

• 17:10Speaker 01

  Well, they play the Rams, right?

• 17:12Bill Simmons?

  I know, but they're a game back. They gotta, they basically need the Rams to lose next week. They need to win next week and then they need to beat the Rams.

• 17:19Speaker 01

  And those Rams will, I mean, there's a couple of games they've won, scoring one or no or two touchdowns, right? It's just, uh, they just get it done. So weird with them.

• 17:28Bill Simmons?

  You know what's weird about them? They're, they're like a January team. They're like the opposite of what their profile is. You know, like you think of them, you think that they're like this dome team. They're gonna be in these 37, they're in these ugly, like 19 to 16, 20 to 17, like that, that's kind of makes more sense when you're watching them. The Jets didn't, I don't think they punted today, or they punted, they punted once. But just like ugly turnovers, going for it on fourth down, not getting it.

• 17:58Bill Simmons?

  I don't know, I, they're like one of those boxers that you can't like figure out what their style is. They really, like they run the ball really well some weeks, other weeks they don't. Some weeks Stafford looks like he's 40, other weeks he looks like he's 25. I don't have a handle on them at all, do you?

• 18:13Speaker 01

  I don't either. I don't know. Yeah, I, I want to say I want to bet against them in the playoffs, but if Stafford, I think Stafford's gonna struggle in cold weather a little bit. I think we saw that in the numbers. Uh, support that. And you know, if Aaron Rodgers just didn't hand them the ball at the end, that might've been a, might've been a game.

• 18:28Bill Simmons?

  He was awful.

• 18:30Speaker 01

  Oh, really good, really good stuff. But yeah, they have like, what, like, what'd they score against San Francisco? 12? And then barely 19 today in 10, 10 days. They, I think they have two, three touchdowns now.

• 18:43Bill Simmons?

  And it's a lot of like, it's a little Chiefs-ish. Where they're, if it's, if it feels like if it's close in the fourth quarter, you feel like they're gonna pull it out and I'll show my face. And he's like high fiving people and doing that whole thing. The other big scenario that happened today. And you could feel it coming Thursday after that game flipped with the Chargers and the Broncos. It's like all of a sudden Cincinnati. It's doing the sleeper hold and Cincinnati's like, one, two, and it's like, oh, oh, the finger. Oh my God, what's going on? Uh, they've won three straight. They're missing their left tackle and their right tackle and their defense is awful. Although it was pretty good today.

• 19:23Bill Simmons?

  And yet somehow they're still alive. And if they have, they're, they're, uh, playing Denver at home next week.

• 19:33Bill Simmons?

  And then at Pittsburgh.

• 19:34Speaker 01

  Pittsburgh, which might not mean anything. Pittsburgh could be in that scenario where they're, oh, we're the six seed. We don't care if we're the seven seed, you know, doesn't seem like teams really mind.

• 19:44Bill Simmons?

  Pittsburgh could be the five seed. Yeah, they could be five or six and not even care. And then they need Miami and Indiana to Indianapolis to lose.

• 19:54Speaker 01

  Can I just say something?

• 19:55Bill Simmons?

  Which by the way is is not not a Miami's playing Cleveland and the Jets Indianapolis is playing the Giants and Jaguars. So those teams might run out.

• 20:03Speaker 01

  Right, right, right. I had my biggest bet of the year. I'm gonna come clean. Penn State Cincinnati teaser. And I was so mad at the Bengals. I was like, how the frick are you not putting this game away? You know, like this is this you make everyone sweat it out.

• 20:20Bill Simmons?

  For two hours.

• 20:21Speaker 01

  Jesus. And you got Dorian Thompson, Robinson, Pete, whatever his name is, running up and down the field. Like, are you kidding? I know it was 24-6, but can't they? This is, you know, this is the defense. You know, your defense has been awful all year long. Can you just keep it in check against Cleveland? Not not scare us so much?

• 20:40Bill Simmons?

  No, nobody would believe it from the box score. I actually really enjoyed the bad football. I had bets on every game except the Rams Jets. I was like, I'm not going near that. And I like what we talked about over the Rams, but that Cleveland game was close. Their kicker missed a couple of kicks. Dorian Thompson Robinson was terrible at the exactly the wrong times, but for the most part seemed pretty competent. Their defense was doing a good job, I thought, against the Bengals.

• 21:07Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 21:07Bill Simmons?

  And it felt like they were hanging around, hanging around, and all of a sudden it was gonna be 17-13, and they were gonna have the ball with five minutes left. I was freaking out, too. I didn't understand why the Bengals couldn't close it.

• 21:18Speaker 01

  It's a sexy bet. I know our buddy Raheem went with it plus 680 to make the playoffs. I haven't checked it. Of course, it's it's lower now. That's what it was this morning. But I don't even know if they run the table, even with that slate that you said, home against Denver.

• 21:30Bill Simmons?

  Their defense is bad. Yeah, everyone's doing that. You don't want to see them. And it's like, nah, I think I'd feel good about seeing them, actually. They can't stop any anybody.

• 21:38Speaker 01

  Yeah, they're very inconsistent.

• 21:39Bill Simmons?

  So you have them, you have Denver, who really looks like smoke and mirrors personified. Miami, who actually got a good game from Tua today. We'll talk about that later. And then Indianapolis, who ran for 335 yards today against a terrible Tennessee team. But if you catch them in the right 20 minutes, they look pretty good.

• 22:00Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 22:00Bill Simmons?

  And I don't know, one of those teams is going to be the seventh seed and I, who, who, who would you be the most afraid of out of those four?

• 22:07Speaker 01

  Um, so if you're, who, let's say, who's the two, would we say? Buffalo?

• 22:12Bill Simmons?

  I think two is gonna be Buffalo. Yeah.

• 22:16Bill Simmons?

  So you, you're hoping for Miami.

• 22:18Speaker 01

  Myself, but maybe Cincinnati, but I, yeah, yeah. Miami, it wouldn't scare me if I'm Buffalo going there. Colts wouldn't.

• 22:26Bill Simmons?

  Scare you?

• 22:27Speaker 01

  No, no, they, they can't. Tua, I don't know. Are they gonna have a balmy day in January? Like, I don't, I don't see it. Uh, I guess Cincinnati, but, but they're gonna kill everybody.

• 22:39Speaker 01

  What do you think? Who would you be most afraid?

• 22:42Bill Simmons?

  Miami, I'd be fired up about because cold weather, they have no chance.

• 22:44Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 22:45Bill Simmons?

  Indianapolis, Richardson in a playoff road game, no chance. Denver, Bo Nix, I don't see it.

• 22:53Speaker 01

  Right.

• 22:53Bill Simmons?

  Sorry, I know you love Bo Nix, but.

• 22:55Speaker 01

  No, it's fine.

• 22:56Bill Simmons?

  That same teams like that, that team has like a good hour in them and they kind of need the lead and then they kind of hold on.

• 23:02Speaker 01

  Their offense, Bo Nix, I do like them.

• 23:06Speaker 01

  Pretty much the same as last year. If you look at the numbers, it's a defense, it's allowed seven fewer points a game.

• 23:12Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, Benito turned into one of the best guys in the AFC.

• 23:14Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 23:15Bill Simmons?

  I would be the most scared of Cincinnati, not, I, I know it sounds like I'm contradicting what I said before, but I think the team that beats Buffalo in the playoffs is just gonna be the classic, we outscored them, we won 42 to 40. We won 38 to 35. Like, you're not stopping Buffalo anyway. So weirdly, the Bengals not having a defense. I don't know if that matters because whenever Buffalo wants to move the ball downfield, they do. What's interesting about them, Cooper, again, didn't do anything today.

• 23:42Speaker 01

  Nothing.

• 23:43Bill Simmons?

  One catch for 10 yards.

• 23:44Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 23:45Bill Simmons?

  And that was their big trade deadline move. It makes me wonder, like, should anyone trade for a receiver during the season? Like, the Adams is doing well for the Jets because Rogers is throwing to him 28 times a game, trying to get him going. But meanwhile, they scored nine points, but.

• 23:58Speaker 01

  Yeah, I don't know. I don't know what's gonna be with, yeah, you're right with Buffalo, but I think with Cincinnati, even if they do outslug Buffalo, there'll be a time to just bet against them, right? This team doesn't win two, three games in the playoffs. It is not built like that at all.

• 24:13Bill Simmons?

  No, but they could win one. And I think if you look back at the season they just had, so what's their record? Are they, are they 500 yet? They are, they're seven and eight.

• 24:23Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 24:24Bill Simmons?

  But they had how many dumb losses? KC 26 to 25, Washington 38 to 31. That was stupid. Baltimore 41 38. That was dumb. They lost that other Baltimore game 35 34. They lost that stupid Chargers game 34 27. And then they lost that Steelers game when they put up 38 points. Like they've kind of been around some of these losses. But I do think, I think they could play like a 38 to 35 type game and maybe Burrow is just awesome. So that's who I wouldn't want to play if I was Buffalo.

• 24:58Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, they have superstars, Chase Brown, Higgins and, and Jamar Chase. But yeah, it is interesting. They're almost exactly the opposite of the Chiefs, who have somehow made a deal with all the players and the organization that we're not gonna break 31 points this year. We're gonna three-peat, but never score 31. And here Cincinnati's scoring 31, like, you know, three at every four games and can't win like, you know, less than 500.

• 25:21Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, even, even in the KC game this week was like, God forbid, they took a 10-point lead.

• 25:27Speaker 01

  Right.

• 25:28Bill Simmons?

  The other team always has to be within one possession with 10 minutes left for some reason. I will say though with KC, and it's a little like Usik, watching him just kind of figure out how to win the last few rounds. You just feel like when you're in your fourth quarter, the Chiefs, you just feel like they're gonna figure it out somehow.

• 25:45Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 25:46Bill Simmons?

  And it doesn't really make sense as you're watching it. They don't seem really better than any team they're playing. You're not like, whoa.

• 25:54Bill Simmons?

  Look at those guys. It just always feels like they're just gonna make two plays and steal it. But if I was the rest of the league, I'd be dying to play them.

• 26:03Speaker 01

  I don't know.

• 26:04Bill Simmons?

  I would just feel like we can beat these guys. Watch this tape. We can take these guys.

• 26:09Speaker 01

  I just think it's all bullshit. I really do. They're good. They know you're like you said, they know how to be there at the end and yet they don't have a go to guy other than Mahomes offensively, right? It's like, oh, Noah Gray. Oh, all right. He's their guy. Well, Kelsey can only catch a three yard pass and spin for five, you know?

• 26:25Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 26:26Speaker 01

  I don't know. And also just the, can we stop with the high ankle sprain garbage? Like that's, don't call it that anymore. That's not what it is. If he's not wearing a boot on Wednesday, it's not, call it tooth decay. That's closer to what he has than a high ankle sprain. If he's running around, it's a full participant in practice on Tuesday. Give me a break.

• 26:44Bill Simmons?

  It was like an ankle tweak.

• 26:45Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 26:46Bill Simmons?

  That they tried to sell like it was this, uh, terrible.

• 26:49Speaker 01

  Yeah. When you run off your curb to get the mail or something, that's what it is.

• 26:53Bill Simmons?

  So Denver has Cincinnati and KC left. Chargers have the Pats in Las Vegas, so that's, they're winning with that.

• 27:00Speaker 01

  Mm hmm.

• 27:01Bill Simmons?

  Miami, Cleveland and the Jets.

• 27:05Bill Simmons?

  Colts. Giants. Who are awful. They are the worst team in the league. They just suck. They're so bad. I, I was having fun in the first quarter of that game thinking,

• 27:19Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 27:20Bill Simmons?

  Oh. They took the lead, seven, nothing. It's like, okay. Just don't make any mistakes, Drew Lock. He's an out. I'm gonna throw some pick sixes. I'm not even gonna throw one pick six. I'm gonna throw two. I'm gonna throw one to Judon.

• 27:33Speaker 01

  Yeah, right. Right. He got it. He knew what he was doing.

• 27:36Bill Simmons?

  So they play the Giants and the, and the Jaguars. The Jaguars are pretty terrible too.

• 27:43Speaker 01

  Mm hmm.

• 27:45Bill Simmons?

  So I don't, I don't think Cincy's gonna make it between Miami and Indianapolis. I think one of those teams are gonna win.

• 27:50Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's only two more games now for each of them, so. It's doable.

• 27:54Bill Simmons?

  Special season for the, uh, Cleveland quarterbacks. I added up the touchdowns and interceptions. What do you think?

• 28:01Speaker 01

  Who was the best? Was Jameis the best?

• 28:04Bill Simmons?

  Probably the, yeah, probably the most productive.

• 28:08Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 28:08Bill Simmons?

  Ways. What do you think for TDs and interceptions for the season?

• 28:12Speaker 01

  TDs. Uh.

• 28:15Bill Simmons?

  All the guys combined.

• 28:18Speaker 01

  11:21?

• 28:21Bill Simmons?

  Oh, that was pretty negative. 18 touchdowns somehow, 20 picks.

• 28:28Speaker 01

  18 touchdowns?

• 28:29Bill Simmons?

  Well, Jameis had like 13 in six weeks.

• 28:32Speaker 01

  Yeah, that's true. He went crazy in that one Monday night game, too.

• 28:36Bill Simmons?

  What would you guess for Thompson Robinson's career? Touchdowns and picks?

• 28:42Speaker 01

  I know he's amongst the lowest ever for QBRs, so.

• 28:49Speaker 01

  614? I don't know.

• 28:52Bill Simmons?

  Nine picks, one touchdown.

• 28:55Speaker 01

  Is that what it is?

• 28:56Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. We probably should have talked about that on the Ringer Sunday pregame. It's like, hey, one of these two teams has a guy who has one touchdown and seven picks. Now he's got one for nine.

• 29:09Bill Simmons?

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• 29:53Bill Simmons?

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• 30:17Bill Simmons?

  Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. This episode is brought to you by Expedia. You know how at the end of the season, your team goes to Cancun? Sometimes earlier than expected, sometimes after blowing a 3-1 series lead, but what if you went to Cancun? With Expedia, save up to 30% when you bundle and save. You can book the flight or the hotel now, then book the rest later. In all fairness, though, hopefully, your team doesn't go to Cancun. 1-2-3 Cancun. Or if they do, you go with them. Expedia, the one place you go to go places. Sign in to save. Savings vary. This episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. In today's sports, everyone is constantly trying to outdo each other. Trick formations, infield shifts, constant rotation changes, yet it's proven time and time again

• 31:03Bill Simmons?

  that strong fundamentals are the thing that will lead you to victory. Banking, no different. While everyone else tries to outdo each other, PNC Bank just keeps going right down the middle with steady, calculated money moves and the financial wins just keep coming. PNC Bank, brilliantly boring since 1865, brilliantly boring since 1865 is a registered mark of the PNC Financial Services Group, Incorporated. PNC Bank, National Association Member, FTIC. I have a segment we're going to call Murder Watch.

• 31:34Speaker 01

  Oh, good.

• 31:35Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 31:38Bill Simmons?

  First up, the Raiders murder their top two pick. The Raiders are locked into, it's a two quarterback draft. How do you feel about Cam Ward? What's your take?

• 31:47Speaker 01

  I like him better than Shador Sanders. I still don't, you know, my problem is I bet all these guys and lost a lot of money on them.

• 31:54Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 31:54Speaker 01

  And I've cursed Shador Sanders for hanging around the pocket too long and taking bad sacks, but I like his mechanics. I just feel like Cam Ward is more NFL ready right now. Like I said last week, I'm not sure any team. Cause you get the Deion BS with it, right? I mean, you can't, you can't shed that if you take Shador. So I don't know why. So you're thinking Raiders? I mean, who would be more fun?

• 32:17Bill Simmons?

  Well, the Raiders, right now it's Giants one. They're taking a quarterback. Raiders were the second pick. They desperately need a quarterback, even though I guess, I wouldn't say O'Connell was good, but he at least was, you know, it's like when my dad drives to my stepmom's house in Albany. It's like, he got there.

• 32:36Speaker 01

  You're proud of him.

• 32:36Bill Simmons?

  It's like that. Yeah. It's like a compliment.

• 32:40Bill Simmons?

  Raiders go from two to six because they lose today. Pats move into two. So all my Pats text threads, if we just hold on Chargers next week, Buffalo week 18. That two spot.

• 32:52Speaker 01

  Hold on.

• 32:53Bill Simmons?

  Just hold on at three and 14. And then we're in the, we're in the trade spot.

• 32:59Speaker 01

  Right. So what do you want? I mean, what do you even want?

• 33:02Bill Simmons?

  I mean, I don't know. Like, let's say the Raiders are six and they want to move up for Shador Sanders at number two. It's at least numbers, the six pick, next year's first, some other stuff. Tennessee is going to need a quarterback and the Giants. So three teams in the top seven need a quarterback. There's only two. And what I didn't want was for the Pats to be third. So.

• 33:25Bill Simmons?

  So right now it's Giants, Pats, Jaguars, Tennessee, Cleveland, Vegas. Carolina. And the irony of this is Mac Jones helped us twice. After completely murdering us last year, he wins a game to push them to three wins and push them behind us. And then loses today, the Raiders pushes them ahead of us. So he pushed.

• 33:46Speaker 01

  Is it irony or is he still on the payroll?

• 33:49Bill Simmons?

  Maybe it is. Maybe, yeah, maybe it's one of those things. We didn't change the.

• 33:53Speaker 01

  Too much irony.

• 33:55Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. So the Raiders were their pick.

• 33:57Speaker 01

  You're going to get, so what do you get? You want a big lineman to protect this guy, right?

• 34:00Bill Simmons?

  Need a lineman.

• 34:01Speaker 01

  That's what you have to do.

• 34:01Bill Simmons?

  Scouting, scouting left tackle footage, which is about as boring as it gets.

• 34:06Speaker 01

  It's not going to be sexy. You're not going to, you don't want the wide receiver. You already said that, right? So.

• 34:11Bill Simmons?

  No, it's like, hey, let's take a long look at Kelvin Banks Jr. of Texas. Anyway, I don't know. We'll see what that pick's worth because once we get close to the draft.

• 34:20Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 34:20Bill Simmons?

  And people start getting excited about the quarterbacks and then you start forgetting the bad stuff. And I, I don't know what. How it's going to play out. All right. That's one murder. Miami murders the Niner season officially. Now you can say it was on life support.

• 34:36Bill Simmons?

  They were awful. And I, and I really don't know where I stand on the Brock Purdy contract extension now because I haven't like he had another a couple of terrible plays today. And I don't know. Once you start removing those weapons, Debo's not quite Debo anymore. There's no Iuk anymore. There's no McCaffrey. And he just looks like another guy that I'm watching who's good at scrambling and occasionally throws the ball for grabs.

• 35:01Speaker 01

  Yeah, there's just no way to tell with them, you know? I mean, I guess we're getting a look now, like, right? Like, he was the guy that everybody, everyone needed to be there. Like you said, the conditions have to be ideal. Shanahan.

• 35:14Bill Simmons?

  But you and I were both in on him. Like, we were like, this guy's impressive. You gotta hand it to him.

• 35:18Speaker 01

  Flopped a thousand times on Purdy, I would say, but I, I do, I still think he's worth it, man. I watch these 10 a.m. games on the West Coast. I see eight or nine bad quarterbacks. So what are we talking 50, 55 million? I feel like, I don't know. I think you're gonna get, we know he could win 10 or 11. You don't think so? You think all these guys are going out?

• 35:38Bill Simmons?

  I wouldn't do it. I don't, I don't want to pay $50 million a year for somebody that's not, you're in the Tua situation. Again, Tua was good today, but I don't, do you want to pay Tua 50 million a year?

• 35:48Speaker 01

  No, but I think that's, he might be worth it when you look at these other guys. You got to start from scratch.

• 35:54Bill Simmons?

  How do you build a great team around him? Cause you need a better line. Like Trent Williams has been out and all of a sudden they can't block anymore.

• 36:00Speaker 01

  Yeah. That's an issue.

• 36:02Bill Simmons?

  To me, the question would be, is there a Darnold every year now? And there won't be a Darnold this year because I think if Minnesota doesn't bring him back now, this is lunacy, but maybe that's the move is you trade for J.J. McCarthy. You know?

• 36:16Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 36:16Bill Simmons?

  The Niners have like the 10th pick in the draft. Maybe they're just like, let's take that guy off your hands.

• 36:21Speaker 01

  But what, I mean, that's a monster. That's a first round pick. So you're gonna trade? I, I don't know.

• 36:26Bill Simmons?

  McCarthy went eighth last year and got hurt.

• 36:28Speaker 01

  Right. I don't know.

• 36:30Bill Simmons?

  What's he worth this year?

• 36:30Speaker 01

  When you say there's, is there another Sam Darnold? This is kind of like a unicorn situation. This is what his, his seventh or eighth.

• 36:37Bill Simmons?

  We had Baker Mayfield the year before, like.

• 36:40Speaker 01

  There's not too many guys who need seven years to prove themselves, is there?

• 36:44Bill Simmons?

  Could be Zach Wilson next year.

• 36:46Speaker 01

  I guess.

• 36:47Bill Simmons?

  Could be Cooper Rush.

• 36:49Speaker 01

  Oh, interesting.

• 36:50Bill Simmons?

  Would you take a first for Cooper Rush or no?

• 36:53Speaker 01

  I think we gotta get two firsts and someone has to fix the roof.

• 36:56Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I mean, you're probably right. History of the NFL says Donald's a complete anomaly. You can't count on getting lucky like that again. And other teams have tried, but like Geno Smith on Seattle, they were able to patch that together.

• 37:09Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 37:09Bill Simmons?

  I, I think it happens a little more than people realize, but what I know doesn't work is paying somebody 50 million who might not be worth it. I'd be really nervous about that.

• 37:18Speaker 01

  Yeah, the 49ers, the window might have closed with this, with this core group for sure. But, um, but it, it, that's still that offense does home when McCaffrey's there and Ayuk's there and everybody else. So they have to keep, man, it really is the Trent Williams thing though, isn't it? That's the big piece.

• 37:34Bill Simmons?

  And I.

• 37:34Speaker 01

  It's so different without him.

• 37:35Bill Simmons?

  Yep. Um.

• 37:38Bill Simmons?

  When we did our futures draft before the year and you tapped out, I won the Fogu to chat. I can't wait for next year now that we know it's like whoever taps out first loses.

• 37:47Speaker 01

  What do you mean? I did?

• 37:48Bill Simmons?

  You tapped out. Yeah.

• 37:49Speaker 01

  Yeah, cuz I had enough winners.

• 37:50Bill Simmons?

  Back and forth, you ran out.

• 37:52Speaker 01

  I got it.

• 37:52Bill Simmons?

  You ran out of futures.

• 37:53Speaker 01

  I'm gonna win. I'm gonna win.

• 37:54Bill Simmons?

  I did five, but no, I'm definitely winning. I, I hit more than this. Yeah.

• 37:58Speaker 01

  Really?

• 37:58Bill Simmons?

  I had, I had some, I had some great ones. I had some plus 300s. I had some big ones.

• 38:03Speaker 01

  We gotta look at those. I want to see those. That's, that's crazy.

• 38:05Bill Simmons?

  I think I'm gonna win. But, um, one of the ones I took at the tail end after you tapped out was Niners under nine and a half wins. And it was plus 260.

• 38:16Speaker 01

  Hmm.

• 38:17Bill Simmons?

  So that, I, I wish next year, I'm, I just want to print all these out. What do you think Niners under seven and a half wins would have been? Like plus 700?

• 38:26Speaker 01

  Yeah, that's nuts. Yeah.

• 38:28Bill Simmons?

  I think we have to remember that for next year. There's always going to be one or two teams that are like five wins worse than whatever the over under is. And with some crazy seven to one value, try to guess in each conference what team it's gonna be.

• 38:41Speaker 01

  Yeah, what was McCaffrey's prognosis when we had done that? Like he might miss one game?

• 38:46Bill Simmons?

  We were, no, we were dubious. We thought he might be out for like the first month.

• 38:51Speaker 01

  Well, we thought that, but the day, the day, I mean, we know better than everybody, but no, but what were they saying? They said, really? Maybe a month or they weren't saying anything.

• 39:00Bill Simmons?

  It was dodgy. It was dodgy enough that it affected our fantasy draft.

• 39:04Speaker 01

  Right. That's true. Yeah. I want to look at those numbers. I picked offensive rookie of the year winner. I picked possibly the defensive player of the year.

• 39:13Bill Simmons?

  One of your best ones was you had Pat's worst record. Detroit best record was like 36 to one. You're not going to hit it?

• 39:20Speaker 01

  Oh.

• 39:21Bill Simmons?

  But I had, I hit a bunch of like Pat's unders. NFC South. I had, I do, I did pretty well.

• 39:29Speaker 01

  We got to pull this out.

• 39:29Bill Simmons?

  It's going to be a good battle. We'll see. There's a lot of ones left, but we did well on the over unders too. Uh, that Miami Niners game. I don't know what happened to Tyreek. I don't know whether he got paid or he's, but it feels like he's not as, it feels like Johnny Smith's the most valuable offensive weapon they have now.

• 39:49Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 39:49Bill Simmons?

  But they really ran the ball today and it was the first time they ran the ball in a while. Now granted, they're playing this Niners team that felt like it was, whatever, but it did make me think like this is kind of the Miami team. We thought they were going to be before the season. This like speedy team that could also like really pound you with this crazy run game. And it feels like they're figuring out a little bit. I thought they played really well in that game.

• 40:13Speaker 01

  Well, how surprised were you to hear that Tua threw his 100th touchdown pass of his career?

• 40:19Bill Simmons?

  That makes sense. That's like 25 a year.

• 40:22Speaker 01

  I don't know why it really threw me for a loop. I was like, this guy has a hundred? That's exactly what I thought. He's at 25 for a year?

• 40:29Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 40:29Speaker 01

  But they're sitting all that time.

• 40:31Bill Simmons?

  We've been really harsh on him. I thought he was good today and Tyreek dropped two touchdowns.

• 40:36Speaker 01

  They said, like, they said someone got a hand on it, but yeah, I agree.

• 40:40Bill Simmons?

  No, he was good.

• 40:41Speaker 01

  He pulls those in. You know who's good? Me for taking the over in that game.

• 40:46Bill Simmons?

  14 and 2.

• 40:47Speaker 01

  14 and 2 with my wisest wagers. Just, just let me get this out. Just everybody set your alarm if you're on the West Coast. Watch the Ring of Pregame show on YouTube TV. On the West Coast, it's 8:04 in the morning. You catch my bet, you plug it into Fanduel and you go to sleep until 1 or 4, you'll wake up a winner.

• 41:06Bill Simmons?

  You're on a heater because the one today was super lucky.

• 41:10Speaker 01

  It really was.

• 41:11Bill Simmons?

  You were gonna lose. You were under. Achan is up 5.

• 41:16Speaker 01

  Yeah, he's an idiot.

• 41:16Bill Simmons?

  With like, less than 2 minutes left. Running for a first down. Most guys in the league fall down on the 5 yard line and he's like, "Fuck it. America needs fantasy points and they're over." And he just runs right in for the touchdown.

• 41:30Speaker 01

  Big ass smile on his face too.

• 41:32Bill Simmons?

  You must have been going nuts.

• 41:33Speaker 01

  I was like, "This is, this is insane." Yeah. I don't think I'm ever gonna lose again.

• 41:38Bill Simmons?

  I had a...

• 41:39Speaker 01

  114 Eastern.

• 41:40Bill Simmons?

  I mailed you guys my 13 pointer today.

• 41:42Speaker 01

  You had that on there.

• 41:43Bill Simmons?

  The Bills-Packers money line. The Bears plus 20, which I somehow won. And then the other one was, "You're over." It was like, "Over." I teased it down to 31. They almost had that in the third quarter.

• 41:54Speaker 01

  You needed it to the, yeah, in the fourth. Yep. That was good.

• 41:57Bill Simmons?

  One other funny thing about that game. I think Shanahan is my number one coach where it's like, they're down between 4 and 7 points and I feel like they have no chance. Remember that? I actually looked it up because I was like, I vaguely remember there was some weird Shanahan comeback thing. He was like, 0 for 37 before the playoff game in January.

• 42:19Speaker 01

  Right.

• 42:20Bill Simmons?

  Against Green Bay was the first time they came back. But it was yet another one where it's like, eh, Shanahan, they're probably not coming back. All right, next murder. Carolina murdered Arizona's season.

• 42:32Speaker 01

  Yeah, they did.

• 42:33Bill Simmons?

  And Bryce, who we left for dead last week, outplayed Kyler Murray.

• 42:40Bill Simmons?

  Who yet again, as a recurring theme with him, both this season and for his career, just cannot stop having three absolutely horrible, abysmal, excruciating plays per game. He can't not do it. And he's been in the league, what, six years? I'm out. I was out already, but I'm like, all the way out. Doors closed, locked, done.

• 43:03Speaker 01

  It does seem like he's one of the quarterbacks who really should lobby for a three-quarter football game, right? Like, you're not gonna see, fourth quarter is too long for him to not make one or two crucial mistakes.

• 43:16Bill Simmons?

  Or maybe Mulligans. Yeah, he's like the guy in golf is like, can I get a Mulligan on that? I just, I just almost killed the foursome to the left on the other hole. All right, take another shot. He just has three Mulligan passes that you don't get Mulligans in football.

• 43:29Speaker 01

  Right. And we used to imagine, like, when we were growing up, if someone kicked, no, well, no one kicked a 58-yard field goal. But if someone kicked a 58-yard field goal, you were gonna win that game, right? If it was that important. And he couldn't even do it. It was like a punt return for a touchdown. Couldn't even do it. Couldn't win this, them this game in overtime. Very strange.

• 43:48Bill Simmons?

  So the guy who kicked the field goal, Chad Ryland,

• 43:51Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 43:51Bill Simmons?

  was on the Patriots last year, and single-handedly lost us three games with terrible kicks. And is the reason we have Drake May? There's a couple of people I follow on Twitter that are Pats people, that they call him the Tank Master, the Commander and Tank Chief. Because it was like, he, he just brought us home. And he went to Arizona, and now he's just banging home 58 yarders, like, in bad condition. Like, it doesn't matter. He makes everything.

• 44:17Speaker 01

  Yeah, so he's a defensive player.

• 44:19Bill Simmons?

  So he hits that. And by the way, they got really screwed on a call on that, end of that game, where he was, Kyler scrambled out of bounds. And they, they did that weird, this is another NFL call that they just have stopped being consistent on ever. Is the guy, if he, did he fall forward or not? All of a sudden, the ref's like, no, no, no, keep it going, even though he seemed like he, you know, was in control of his own out-of-bounds destiny. I haven't figured that out yet. And then the Panthers win in OT. And the Panthers, now have four wins. This was my lock of the NFC, five and a half wins under Panthers.

• 44:57Speaker 01

  Oh, you're good.

• 44:58Bill Simmons?

  I feel like I'm gonna get it.

• 44:59Speaker 01

  Yeah, wait, how's it, how's it end up for them? I mean, we, my boys.

• 45:03Bill Simmons?

  A little nervous. They're just playing all the, they're playing the other teams in the, in the conference.

• 45:07Speaker 01

  Oh, right, right.

• 45:07Bill Simmons?

  Or in the division.

• 45:08Speaker 01

  Oh, they're at Tampa. I mean, Tampa, talk about a murder. There's gonna be murders if they don't win that game.

• 45:15Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they played Tampa. They're on the road, Tampa and Atlanta. They're not gonna win both of those.

• 45:21Speaker 01

  Yeah, they gotta start thinking about top five picks now.

• 45:25Bill Simmons?

  Am I good with the, uh, NFC South? 25 wins?

• 45:30Speaker 01

  What, how many is it now?

• 45:31Bill Simmons?

  They're, they're all playing each other. It's gonna be closer to 30 than, I, I'm a little worried. That was my all-time lock.

• 45:38Speaker 01

  Oh, there's 25 so far. Oh, I see. I see what you're saying. Oh, man. What are you gonna have to hedge? You're gonna have to hedge some dumb week 18 game.

• 45:46Bill Simmons?

  No. Yeah, Tampa's eight, 16, 20, they have 25. And they're, they're, it's like three where they're playing each other where somebody wins. So that's like 27. I think I'm gonna get it. But I can't believe I'm sweating it out. And then we're gonna win our NFC East one.

• 46:03Speaker 01

  Well, hold on. Yeah, so it's Bucks, Saints and Carolina, Atlanta. So you'll know before week 18. That's week 18.

• 46:11Bill Simmons?

  I'm okay. I'm gonna be fine.

• 46:13Speaker 01

  You'll be good. You'll be good.

• 46:14Bill Simmons?

  I, I'm furious that I'm sweating it out though.

• 46:19Bill Simmons?

  Uh, next one. The Rams. Somehow re-murdered the Jets season. It felt like this was like positive vibes with the Jets. Enigma came out. They won last week. It's like, oh, Rodgers, if you look at his stats, this is the best, best, uh, season a Jets QB has had in like 12 years, all that stuff. Nope.

• 46:45Bill Simmons?

  They sucked. And he sucked. He was terrible.

• 46:48Speaker 01

  He was bad, right?

• 46:49Bill Simmons?

  Awful.

• 46:50Speaker 01

  And you're right. The, the highlight will show the Devante Adams touchdown, right?

• 46:54Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 46:55Speaker 01

  But everything else, poor decisions in the pocket, can't get free.

• 46:59Bill Simmons?

  Slow.

• 47:00Speaker 01

  Just slow as shit. I mean, they, they, who was? What are they talking about bringing him back or another team signing him? I just don't get it. I don't care. Please, it has nothing to do with him personally. What would possibly catch your eye that you would sign this guy again?

• 47:17Bill Simmons?

  I can't think of a single thing.

• 47:21Bill Simmons?

  I will tell you another person who's not gonna be back, Olbrich. He's the 2024 Brandon Staley Award winner. I don't think anyone has a worse sense of when to go for it, when to go for it on fourth down, when to punt. He just fucks it up every time. It's like whatever's, whatever's gonna work, he's like, I'll just do the opposite. Let me try that. This guy will never be a head coach again.

• 47:44Speaker 01

  He's got brick in his name. The brick layer, we gotta, we gotta come up with something for him. But we have two weeks to do it.

• 47:51Bill Simmons?

  How about, uh, you'll never be a head coach again. Can we call him that? Is that a good nickname?

• 47:56Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's a little long. I don't know.

• 47:57Bill Simmons?

  A little long.

• 47:58Speaker 01

  On a license.

• 47:59Bill Simmons?

  I just feel like we should have appreciated pit boss Rich a little more when we had him. And the whole concept of an interim coach with like real character coming in and just being like a substitute teacher. I don't know. Uh, there's a Garrett Wilson subplot with the Jets. That you can really feel when you're watching them. I just don't think he's gonna be on that team next year. And I would love to get him on the Patriots. I'd take him right now.

• 48:24Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah.

• 48:26Bill Simmons?

  I think he's really good and I think Rogers is just favoring Adams and, or Lazard or whatever guy he has some history with over like Garrett Wilson. Garrett Wilson is gonna go to another team and be awesome.

• 48:37Speaker 01

  He's gotta be great in the right, uh, right offense, in the right scheme. I don't know if it's the Patriots, but it's definitely, uh, not the Jets.

• 48:44Bill Simmons?

  Come to the Patriots. Play with Drake.

• 48:46Speaker 01

  Man, bro, we were told you have to take Garrett Wilson's no later than seventh in the first round and Breeze Hall, fourth. Forget it.

• 48:55Bill Simmons?

  Garrett Wilson murdered two of my fantasy teams. Here's another murder. Jer, Gerard Mayo murdered analytics. I don't know if you caught this. So when the Pats punted from the New England 45 on fourth and six, 8:33 remaining in the fourth, down 10. Punting to Josh Allen, the MVP of the league. A surrender index, according to the surrender Twitter, surrender index of 9.08. It ranked in the 95th percentile of cowardly punts of the 2024 season. And the 91st percentile of all punts since 1999. Another chapter for Gerard Mayo's new book, Scared Football.

• 49:38Speaker 01

  I love the fact that cowardly punts has to go on someone's resume. Like if that guy goes for another job, like, all right, let's see your guy, your teammates, team seems to like you. Yeah, you did this. All right. Yeah. Oh, cowardly.

• 49:51Bill Simmons?

  Two cowardly punts in 2024.

• 49:54Speaker 01

  Can we get that down? Can we, uh, can someone write a letter on your behalf explaining the cowardly punts?

• 50:01Bill Simmons?

  The announcers were praising the Pats today because they, they rolled Drake May out a couple of times. They played with pace. They did a fake punt. They were like, the Patriots aggressive. I'm like, we're three and 11. Like, of course, what are we, what are we protecting? We suck.

• 50:18Speaker 01

  Yeah. I was sending you live odds for them. They were plus 142 when they're up by 10. What was it? 14?

• 50:25Bill Simmons?

  Never, never, ever, never, ever did I think we were winning that game. Cause if I had been panicking about the draft pick, there would have been a moment in that game where I was like, holy shit. We're going to blow this and actually win, but it was the perfect game. Drake May, he knows the program. Do just enough. Get everyone excited. He's going to have a couple of dumb 21 year old plays. He has every game because he's 21 years old, but, uh, I love him.

• 50:52Speaker 01

  Let me ask you something. I'm being honest. I'm not being a jerk. I do. No, but what is the difference between him and Mac Jones? The first 12 weeks of Mac Jones. Oh my God. After 10 weeks, he was saying they should redraft. Mac Jones would be one or two.

• 51:07Bill Simmons?

  Stop. It was not.

• 51:09Speaker 01

  You did.

• 51:10Bill Simmons?

  Mac Jones was always like a game manager. This guy.

• 51:13Speaker 01

  Oh my God.

• 51:13Bill Simmons?

  So the bundle sent me something. NFL offensive success rate leader since week 10.

• 51:20Bill Simmons?

  Lions, Packers, Ravens, Bengals, Bills, Rams, Patriots. Like Drake Bay is good. We have nobody. We have no receivers. We can't block. We have a running back that has seven fumbles this year. There has been a seven fumble player since 2020.

• 51:36Speaker 01

  Yeah. I'm sorry, but you love Mac Jones. You did. I'm just saying, be careful. You love, you did love Mac Jones.

• 51:42Bill Simmons?

  I'll go further.

• 51:44Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 51:44Bill Simmons?

  My favorite Boston rookie of the 21st century.

• 51:47Speaker 01

  What?

• 51:48Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Yes.

• 51:50Speaker 01

  Really?

• 51:50Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. I'm all in. I'm all in. I'm happy to be haunted with this clip forever. Drake May is a sure thing. All the Pat fans are nodding now. We've been watching him. He's fucking incredible. Team sucks.

• 52:03Speaker 01

  Wait a minute. Wasn't Mookie Betts a rookie for you?

• 52:06Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I love Mookie Betts. I have him above Mookie Betts.

• 52:08Speaker 01

  Oh my gosh.

• 52:09Bill Simmons?

  And I love Mookie Betts.

• 52:10Speaker 01

  Oh man, you are drunk.

• 52:12Bill Simmons?

  It's so hard to get a quarterback. It's like the fucking single hardest thing to do.

• 52:16Speaker 01

  I know.

• 52:16Bill Simmons?

  You could go decades without one. I really thought after Brady, we'd have no chance to ever have one again. And now we have this fucking guy fell out of the sky. It's amazing. And the funny thing is, he might not even be the best quarterback in his class because Daniels is also amazing. But like, if you gave Caleb versus Drake May, then it's like no contest.

• 52:36Speaker 01

  I can't believe you. This is a little much. This is just a tiny bit much.

• 52:40Bill Simmons?

  I don't feel like it is.

• 52:41Speaker 01

  Based on the Mac Jones phrase, you did love him. Never. You didn't call him a game manager for after 10 weeks. You loved him. You thought he was number one or two in the league. Rookie.

• 52:50Bill Simmons?

  If Harrison started to be like a lifeguard at the beach.

• 52:54Speaker 01

  Oh, this is personal now. Yeah. My Harrison or James Harrison?

• 52:58Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. And he just swam out and saved somebody's life.

• 53:03Speaker 01

  Still wouldn't like him.

• 53:05Bill Simmons?

  You'd be like, wow, that was nice. If he did it every week, you'd be like, hey, this kid's a hell of a lifeguard.

• 53:10Speaker 01

  What kind of life is he?

• 53:11Bill Simmons?

  Week after week is just like.

• 53:12Speaker 01

  He's saving lives?

• 53:13Bill Simmons?

  He's fucking, I can't believe the shit he's doing.

• 53:16Speaker 01

  Oh my God.

• 53:17Bill Simmons?

  Like the first drive, the first drive today, he did five, six things that were like, I can't believe he didn't get sacked. I can't believe he got out of that. I can't believe he threaded the needle to booty who's covered by two guys. How did he get him the ball? Like, he's like incredible.

• 53:30Speaker 01

  But you could believe that he, you could believe that he didn't win, right? Cause he's done that 12 times.

• 53:36Bill Simmons?

  Well, not that much.

• 53:37Speaker 01

  That you could believe.

• 53:38Bill Simmons?

  No, I'm super excited about Drake May. You're not going to pour water on it.

• 53:41Speaker 01

  All right.

• 53:41Bill Simmons?

  And I'd be excited for Harrison if he was a great lifeguard and just saving lives every week.

• 53:45Speaker 01

  I think both of those are over, over exaggerating. Three and 12.

• 53:49Bill Simmons?

  Do you really? Have you been watching him?

• 53:52Speaker 01

  I have.

• 53:52Bill Simmons?

  He's like shockingly good.

• 53:54Speaker 01

  What the fu, what, really?

• 53:56Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 53:56Speaker 01

  I don't know. All right. I gotta look.

• 53:58Bill Simmons?

  Give, give somebody who's super talented, the worst coaching, the worst play calling, the worst blocking and the worst receivers. And then they're still going to get 28 first downs on the road against Buffalo.

• 54:09Speaker 01

  I'm just saying be careful because we've saw Trevor Lawrence, we saw Mac Jones.

• 54:14Bill Simmons?

  Trevor Lawrence never did this as a rookie. He was never this competent ever in his life.

• 54:20Speaker 01

  I can't believe you have three wins.

• 54:21Bill Simmons?

  Here's what's gonna happen.

• 54:22Speaker 01

  This is really, yeah.

• 54:23Bill Simmons?

  Here's what's gonna happen. Mark my words. The nerds are gonna come out.

• 54:25Speaker 01

  This was a winnable game today. You could have beaten the Bills.

• 54:27Bill Simmons?

  We've had like seven winnable games.

• 54:29Speaker 01

  Great.

• 54:29Bill Simmons?

  Because of him. We have no good players. We have him and Gonzalez. Here's what's gonna happen this week. The nerds, when they do the EQ, all the, all like the fancy stats. May is gonna be amazing in these different stats, like the PFF, all that stuff. I'm telling you, he's gonna be great.

• 54:44Speaker 01

  You and the nerds, you should watch the games with the nerds.

• 54:47Bill Simmons?

  Can we bring in Kyle for a second? Kyle, are you, are you listening to this?

• 54:51Speaker 01

  No, this is, this is.

• 54:52Bill Simmons?

  Kyle, tell Sal how good Drake May is, because he doesn't seem to believe me.

• 54:56Speaker 02

  He's really good, Sal. He's really good.

• 54:57Speaker 01

  Oh, he is?

• 54:58Speaker 02

  I watched the first half of these games. You should just watch the first half.

• 55:01Speaker 01

  Oh, just the first half? Okay, all right.

• 55:03Bill Simmons?

  He's really good.

• 55:04Speaker 01

  All right, you turned me around. I didn't, I didn't believe you, but Kyle.

• 55:08Bill Simmons?

  Sal, just be on the right side of history of this. Drake May is a guy.

• 55:10Speaker 01

  Really?

• 55:11Bill Simmons?

  It's a guy. He's a guy. This is happening.

• 55:14Speaker 01

  How much are you gonna pay for him in fantasy next year?

• 55:17Bill Simmons?

  I'll say this. He's gonna be on all my fantasy teams going forward.

• 55:21Speaker 01

  Really?

• 55:21Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 55:22Speaker 01

  What a lunatic you are. What are you, eight years old?

• 55:25Bill Simmons?

  This is great. I'm so happy to have a quarterback again.

• 55:29Speaker 01

  It's fine. It's fine.

• 55:32Bill Simmons?

  It's great. I love Tatum. Tatum, first year, I was like, this guy's got it. We got somebody. This guy's like a special guy. And I feel the same way about Drake May. Felt the same way about Ray Bork in 1979. It's like, this guy's a guy.

• 55:45Speaker 01

  I gotta look back. You're missing somebody here.

• 55:48Bill Simmons?

  Mookie Betts, same thing. Mookie Betts as a rookie is like, this guy has it.

• 55:51Speaker 01

  Yeah. And he did have it.

• 55:53Bill Simmons?

  He did have it. And then he took it to LA.

• 55:55Speaker 01

  Let's wait on this guy. Yeah. He'll be around.

• 55:57Bill Simmons?

  All right, we'll see. This episode is brought to by WeatherTech. Whether it's a pumpkin spice coffee that goes splat in your seat, or a weekend tailgate that leaves your trunk full of gear and who knows what. You're gonna want WeatherTech in your vehicle. Whether you call it fall, autumn, or spooky season, whether the mess is your fault, the kids, the dogs, or the weather's fault, you're gonna want WeatherTech. For American-made floor liners and a cargo liner that laugh in the face of fall weather, visit weatherTech.com today. This episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast is presented by State Farm. Every football player brings something different to the field. Maybe they have a cannon arm, speed, power. Maybe they have their own podcast. That being said, no two players are exactly alike.

• 56:37Bill Simmons?

  And the same is true off the field. That's why State Farm takes the time to get to know you, so they can help personalize coverage for your life and budget like a good neighbor. State Farm is there. All right, quick break. This episode is brought to you by Fire TV. You ever sit down, ready to watch the game, only to search and scroll endlessly? If so, you need Fire TV. It shows you are live games from your favorite teams all in one place, right on the home screen. No more searching. Just sit down and turn on Fire TV. Separate subscriptions may be required. Feature and content availability may vary.

• 57:13Bill Simmons?

  The Saturday games.

• 57:16Bill Simmons?

  Baltimore handled Pittsburgh.

• 57:19Bill Simmons?

  Winnable game for Pittsburgh.

• 57:22Bill Simmons?

  Russ Wilson.

• 57:26Speaker 01

  We were waiting for it.

• 57:28Bill Simmons?

  Is it a Pickens thing? Or is this, this is always who Russ was?

• 57:32Speaker 01

  It, it doesn't help, but I was waiting for this kind of, I mean, it was the first bad hustle and bustle game we've seen in a while. He fumbled at the goal line, then he threw that bad pick at the end there.

• 57:41Bill Simmons?

  Two terrible plays.

• 57:42Speaker 01

  Honestly, the thing that makes them just like everyone else, if they're going to give up 220 rushing yards. I mean, I know it's Derrick Henry, but that defense can't take weeks off, that's for sure. Otherwise, you're going to look at 34-17 every week.

• 57:57Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I agree.

• 57:59Bill Simmons?

  I just feel like with Pickens, I'm not willing to make a definitive anything on them until Pickens is back. I want to see what that looks like.

• 58:07Speaker 01

  Wednesday, yep.

• 58:10Bill Simmons?

  Pittsburgh has to win out of there, the five seed. The other team is Houston, who I thought was on pace to maybe win that KC game. That Tank Dell injury was one of the worst injuries in a while. It seemed like it sucked the life out of the game. It sucked the life out of them. All of a sudden, they only had one receiver. But it felt like they had a real chance to win that game. And I liked the way their defense was playing. After that, it was like, ah, they're not going to win this.

• 58:35Speaker 01

  You know what? I think they're mid-Carters. Who, who's the good WWE comp from the eighties? Like, like David Bruno, Sam Martino? Tito Santana, all right, yeah. On his, on his way down, I would say. Santana, Cowboy Bob Orton, somewhere in there. Cause that's, that's perfect what the, right there. But yeah, you're right, that injury was awful.

• 58:55Bill Simmons?

  Val Venus?

• 58:56Speaker 01

  Yeah. Vita Vey? I don't know. No, but they, and that was an awful injury. It was gross. It was a lot of emotion. And then the sadness turned to outright hate when Fairbarn missed that extra point, which basically

• 59:08Bill Simmons?

  I know, he had ice for a half hour.

• 59:10Speaker 01

  Yeah, that was it.

• 59:13Bill Simmons?

  So we had those two games. We had terrible college football games.

• 59:16Speaker 01

  Mm hmm.

• 59:18Bill Simmons?

  But we had the fight was awesome.

• 59:20Speaker 01

  Yeah, that was a lot of fun.

• 59:22Bill Simmons?

  And both of us had a lot of money on Usik. And after round five, I was super worried. Cause it felt like, it felt like Fury had put on so much weight. It just felt like he was too big and it felt like he had somehow stayed in enough shape to battle Usik and it felt like Usik could not figure it out. And then, of course, he figured it out.

• 59:45Speaker 01

  When Fury came out with those trunks and they were so high, they were like just right under the nipples and you're like, oh yeah, he's hiding, he's hiding that gut. But he kept coming at him. I mean, I hadn't seen heavyweights like that where, you know, usually you're gonna get clenches for half the round. You didn't get, you got like one or two per round. Like those guys were just thrown at each other.

• 1:00:06Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. And Fury was. Was determined not to be leaned on, be trapped against the ropes. He was always trying to stay in the middle, moving around.

• 1:00:14Speaker 01

  Could we see it again? I know he's beaten it twice, but I, you know, it's weird because neither guy was rocked to a point where, oh man, he's really in trouble in either fight, I don't think. But I'd love to see it again. Like, why not? Just keep fighting.

• 1:00:28Bill Simmons?

  It was great. I would, I would watch Usik fight anybody. I really love how he kind of changes his style depending on who he's going against. He'll go back and forth in Southpaw and regularly. He's just, he's always up to shit, but.

• 1:00:40Speaker 01

  What about Drake May? Would you want him to fight Drake May?

• 1:00:42Bill Simmons?

  Drake May would beat him.

• 1:00:45Speaker 01

  I think you believe that too. Kyle, come on, come on.

• 1:00:50Bill Simmons?

  Drake May's a little brother. He's got, got beaten up by his brothers for his entire childhood.

• 1:00:54Speaker 01

  Does Drake May beat Usik in a fight, Kyle?

• 1:00:57Bill Simmons?

  I love Drake May. I am happy to die in this hill.

• 1:01:03Speaker 01

  Good.

• 1:01:03Bill Simmons?

  I am happy. We have a guy.

• 1:01:05Speaker 01

  Best funeral.

• 1:01:05Bill Simmons?

  So far, remember when Dak was good, those first couple games with Dallas and you were like, you were like, fuck, Dak might actually be good. And you kind of just slowly realized, oh, we have a guy.

• 1:01:17Speaker 01

  Yeah, but it was an angry guy. It was such a Romo guy there and he won, when he beat Pittsburgh, that was, that was, my emotions were all over the place. Yeah, my hormones were way out of whack that season.

• 1:01:30Bill Simmons?

  Couple of random observations for you.

• 1:01:34Bill Simmons?

  Brian Thomas Jr.

• 1:01:35Speaker 01

  Yeah, really good.

• 1:01:37Bill Simmons?

  I think he's the best rookie receiver.

• 1:01:41Bill Simmons?

  The stuff he's doing in these games, with the quarterbacks he's had and the amount of times he's been overthrown and all the different things they ask him to do, he's just terrifying. I feel like he's

• 1:01:55Bill Simmons?

  like a top seven receiver now, right? If we're doing fantasy again right now, I think he's one of the first seven.

• 1:02:03Speaker 01

  He's stuck on a bad team, I think, right now, but I was looking at his comps against Malik Neighbors this year. Neighbors has been out a bunch, but still has more catches and not nearly as many yards or touchdowns or anything else. The guy just knows how to get open. I was looking at these odds. It doesn't matter. Jaden Daniels is gonna win, but I think it's a handful of guys who are second. You could put Bowers, you could put Bucky Irving, you could put Brian Thomas Jr. right in there, I think, for a second.

• 1:02:29Bill Simmons?

  Thomas Jr. has to have that degree of difficulty of how bad his quarterbacks have been.

• 1:02:34Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:02:34Bill Simmons?

  And I don't know, I'd love to see a montage of how many times he's been wide open and somebody threw it over his head, but it's at least four times that I can remember watching. But he went 23rd, so.

• 1:02:47Speaker 01

  Yeah, right.

• 1:02:48Bill Simmons?

  And Adunze went over him. Neighbors went over him. Marvin Harrison went over him. And there was three teams that needed a receiver. And then he dropped. And he dropped. And if you go look at the little pocket of players, all the players are good, like Jared verse, you go on through.

• 1:03:08Bill Simmons?

  But I was like, goddamn, I wish the Pats had traded up for him. Or somebody. Like, imagine if KC had traded up for him. He was right in that zone where it would have been pretty easy to move up like five, six spots and grab him. But he just seems like he's a home run pick for them, so.

• 1:03:24Speaker 01

  It's hard. I'm not gonna say it's hard to pick then a quarterback, but some of these guys are in such like spread weird offenses in college, it's tough to see what's just gonna translate, even with pro days and timing and everything else. But yeah, he was a steal.

• 1:03:39Bill Simmons?

  I will say Van Lathan, LSU fan who watched him there. Was adamant that he was going to be awesome.

• 1:03:46Speaker 01

  Loved him.

• 1:03:46Bill Simmons?

  He was like, I don't understand why he's the fourth guy and why like, how did they decide that he was just the fourth best guy out of all these guys? The guy was incredible in college.

• 1:03:55Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:03:57Bill Simmons?

  Jared Goff, 33 touchdowns this year. Wanted to mention that touchdown passes. Outside chance for 40.

• 1:04:05Speaker 01

  Uh huh.

• 1:04:07Speaker 01

  Well, doesn't Donald have 32? Is it 33 to 32? I mean, that could be a good week 18. That'd be fun.

• 1:04:14Bill Simmons?

  I was just thinking like, that's one of the great random trades of this century. That Stafford Goff trade, how it rejuvenated the line. I know people have talked about it a million times, but Goff just being miles, leaps and bounds better than you ever could have expected if you're the Lions and you're getting him. And then Stafford wins the Super Bowl, but um, imagine me telling you three years ago, Goff is going to be the quarterback on a team that's 13 and two, and he's going to have 33 touchdown passes with two weeks to go. You'd have been like, what?

• 1:04:46Speaker 01

  I would. Well, you told me the same thing about Mac Jones and I didn't believe you, but yeah, no, you're right. No, he's, if, if anything else, we could stop the Goff and cold weather, can't get it done thing. He's now done it in Green Bay. He's done it in Chicago. This was an easy trap game, as bad as Chicago has been, and they uh, they butcher them.

• 1:05:06Bill Simmons?

  I wrote down Caleb has replaced Kyler as the new king of garbage time.

• 1:05:10Speaker 01

  Yeah, maybe.

• 1:05:12Bill Simmons?

  Down 20, they fucking lights it up. Look out.

• 1:05:16Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:05:16Bill Simmons?

  Here comes Caleb.

• 1:05:19Speaker 01

  I want him to break the record. Nobody's sacking him enough anymore. It's going to be David Carr's record still. He has like, he has like 60. He needs 70. Now David Carr is going to be popping the champagne yet another year.

• 1:05:33Bill Simmons?

  I mean,

• 1:05:33Speaker 01

  It's like he has a franchise record. He has a franchise record for sacks. Like if they told the Bears like, hey, you're this quarterback is Caleb Williams. He's going to set a franchise record this year. You'd be like, oh, this is great.

• 1:05:44Bill Simmons?

  Really? Franchise record.

• 1:05:45Speaker 01

  Terrific.

• 1:05:45Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:05:46Speaker 01

  Hundreds of years.

• 1:05:48Bill Simmons?

  Penix?

• 1:05:51Bill Simmons?

  Looked fine.

• 1:05:52Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:05:53Bill Simmons?

  He's okay.

• 1:05:55Speaker 01

  You know what?

• 1:05:56Bill Simmons?

  He can move. He can move. I'm like Kirk Cousins.

• 1:05:59Speaker 01

  He was, what was he, 18 for 27, 202? I bet, maybe you think this is a dumb bet anyway. I bet no interceptions because I thought they were going to put kid gloves on him. It was going to be a lot of Bijon, going to be a lot of screen passes. And that fucking Kyle Pitts.

• 1:06:12Bill Simmons?

  Oh, when he threw it.

• 1:06:13Speaker 01

  Player in NFL history, and it doesn't even count as a fumble because he catches the ball and bats it right to the defender. He even drops the ones he catches, like not called fumbles. Drafted fourth overall. That's a bad pick. That is, that's the worst.

• 1:06:28Bill Simmons?

  I would have been more outraged about that, but the Patriots have done that to Drake May like four times this year, where they've caught the ball and then just whipped it to the other team. That should have a name when a guy does that. It shouldn't count as an interception for the quarterback. It should be like a team interception or something.

• 1:06:42Speaker 01

  It's not good. It's the pits for sure. That said, Falcons defense was the ad drop of the decade. Anyone who had the Falcons defense, picked them up Thursday, Friday. Good job by you. You won your fantasy week.

• 1:06:54Bill Simmons?

  Last thing I had before I guess the lines. Ricky Henderson.

• 1:06:58Speaker 01

  Ah.

• 1:07:01Speaker 01

  Great, Matt.

• 1:07:03Bill Simmons?

  Kind of ahead of his time. Would have been really great with the internet.

• 1:07:08Speaker 01

  Mm hmm.

• 1:07:09Bill Simmons?

  Like social media, he would have been a whole other level of famous, notorious, everything. I, I remember doing the unintentional comedy rating, like doing that whole, like he was one of the unintentionally funniest athletes we've ever had. He was also great to watch. There was nobody like him. He was way ahead of his time with the on base steals, power, like all the stuff like we knew in the 21st century mattered. But we didn't really know in the previous century. Um, and in person

• 1:07:41Speaker 01

  Mm hmm.

• 1:07:42Bill Simmons?

  Was one of like the seven or eight most memorable baseball players I ever went to see in person, right? Isn't the same for you?

• 1:07:48Speaker 01

  Terrific. One of the most entertaining, obviously the fastest you've seen head first sliding just taking the base off, just holding the base over his head. We just don't see it anymore. I mean, you, because no one's breaking the records like he does. But yeah, I think you're right about the social media. He would be just what Major League Baseball needed. Like, yeah, or Mike Trout, you can't get any good sound bites at all. Ricky Henderson would be all over. He would be basically Yogi Berra from 2000, right? And before.

• 1:08:17Bill Simmons?

  The third person stuff was so fucking funny with him.

• 1:08:20Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:08:20Bill Simmons?

  Like he, other people have done it. He did it the best. I remember I went to Yankee Stadium once with a couple of my high school friends and we sat in the left field bleachers. He was playing left field. It was like late eighties. And he'd run out every inning and our whole section was just screaming, Ricky, Ricky, trying to get him to turn around. And he came out every inning for like five, six innings and he wouldn't turn around. And we're just, yeah, we're drinking. We're like, Ricky, come on Ricky, one time Ricky. Just stonewalling us.

• 1:08:54Speaker 01

  Nothing.

• 1:08:55Bill Simmons?

  And then, then like the sixth inning, we're like Ricky, Ricky. And then finally he turned around, huge smile on his face and tipped his hat. But we'd been doing it for like two hours. We were like, what was the tipping point for him? It's like, we couldn't have done that in the third inning? But it was just, we just, it was so much fun to just watch him like walk around, interact with people. Yeah. There was nobody like him.

• 1:09:18Speaker 01

  His hearing was very bad. So maybe he didn't, he just didn't notice it. No, he was great.

• 1:09:23Bill Simmons?

  Hearing it.

• 1:09:24Speaker 01

  He was so much fun. What a bummer.

• 1:09:26Bill Simmons?

  It felt like he was on a lot of teams too. Like he was on the Red Sox.

• 1:09:29Speaker 01

  He was. You do a macro grid.

• 1:09:30Bill Simmons?

  Mets and Yankees.

• 1:09:31Speaker 01

  You can nail the macro grid with him all over the place. Yeah.

• 1:09:35Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. We had a fun year with him, just watching him. I mean, he was the older version of himself, but all right, guess the lines.

• 1:09:43Bill Simmons?

  What's the score?

• 1:09:44Speaker 01

  Let's do it. You're up 8-7-1 heading into week 17. Yeah, 8-7-1.

• 1:09:50Bill Simmons?

  So I don't know if you know this, but there's Christmas Day games this year on Wednesday.

• 1:09:54Speaker 01

  Are there really?

• 1:09:55Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:09:55Speaker 01

  What? I mean CBS, NBC?

• 1:09:58Bill Simmons?

  Netflix, Netflix.

• 1:10:00Speaker 01

  The one where you mail in, you mail in the DVDs and you get them back? How is that gonna work?

• 1:10:06Bill Simmons?

  20, 20 pers- 20 people doing the two games. Pretty much everybody.

• 1:10:12Speaker 01

  Oh, that was, it's a lot. Yeah, it's your nightmare. You hate that.

• 1:10:16Bill Simmons?

  Well, it seems like they're only gonna have four or five people on the, on the thing, but the good news for them is nothing can be worse than Jack Collinsworth interviewing like Tony Dungy.

• 1:10:29Bill Simmons?

  What is that segment? Why doesn't Jack Collinsworth get to make points?

• 1:10:34Bill Simmons?

  He's like, Tony, what do you think about?

• 1:10:36Speaker 01

  Yeah, I know.

• 1:10:36Bill Simmons?

  What do you think about their defense?

• 1:10:39Speaker 01

  Well, I guess it's just-

• 1:10:39Bill Simmons?

  So you're just setting them up for questions like a fan can do that?

• 1:10:41Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's weird that Tony Dungy just asks himself the question, so I guess that's how it has to be.

• 1:10:46Bill Simmons?

  That would be amazing.

• 1:10:47Speaker 01

  You'll learn a lot from this guy, Jack. Just ask him anything.

• 1:10:51Bill Simmons?

  The Cowboys just play, "That's the greatest game I've ever seen, Jack. Let's get a drink."

• 1:10:55Speaker 01

  I could watch these two teams play till March.

• 1:10:58Bill Simmons?

  Secondary. Uh, Christmas Day, Chiefs at Steelers. So spoiler alert, I have home underdogs for both games.

• 1:11:08Bill Simmons?

  Chiefs at Steelers, I have Chiefs by two and a half in Pittsburgh.

• 1:11:13Speaker 01

  Here's where the cheating, the Netflix cheating begins. I had three, it is two and a half, exactly.

• 1:11:20Bill Simmons?

  Should be two and a half. You're gonna need a pickings back for this game.

• 1:11:25Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:11:25Bill Simmons?

  Super winnable game for the Steelers.

• 1:11:29Speaker 01

  This is a good one. Which, which NBA game is this up against?

• 1:11:34Speaker 01

  You're not gonna watch any NBA, are you?

• 1:11:38Bill Simmons?

  I might sneak out, sneak a little. I don't know what the NBA is doing with the scheduling. Three games today. It's like, God forbid they had a, God forbid they had a game going against Cincinnati and Dallas on Sunday night. A game that literally meant nothing. God forbid they had one game going against that.

• 1:11:52Speaker 01

  They wouldn't do that?

• 1:11:53Bill Simmons?

  No, didn't make sense. They're like intentionally shooting themselves in the foot.

• 1:12:00Speaker 01

  Oh, your Celtics play at 2 o'clock, uh, hard times. So you should be good.

• 1:12:06Bill Simmons?

  It's a bored Celtics team.

• 1:12:09Bill Simmons?

  Just waiting to get to April now. The Celtics are, anytime they're favored by 10 and up against anybody, you gotta be careful. Just don't know. Like that first Bulls game they played.

• 1:12:20Bill Simmons?

  I know in the first quarter, I'm like, oh, it's one of these games. Okay. I got it.

• 1:12:25Speaker 01

  Well, let me know, cause I'll live bet against them. I know you won't, but just send me a little text. We'll split.

• 1:12:30Bill Simmons?

  Tatum's been great. Um, next one is Ravens at Houston.

• 1:12:37Bill Simmons?

  No Tank Dell, no Stefan Diggs.

• 1:12:41Speaker 01

  Mid Carter's Salvatore Belomo. Here we go.

• 1:12:45Bill Simmons?

  Salvatore Belomo. S D Jones, um, Ivan Putsky?

• 1:12:53Speaker 01

  He's perfect, actually. Yeah.

• 1:12:55Bill Simmons?

  I have the Ravens by two and a half.

• 1:12:58Speaker 01

  All right. That's exactly what I had. It is three and a half.

• 1:13:06Bill Simmons?

  It's a tough one.

• 1:13:07Speaker 01

  I'd be surprised if Baltimore.

• 1:13:08Bill Simmons?

  What's the bet?

• 1:13:10Speaker 01

  For, for Wednesday?

• 1:13:13Speaker 01

  Celtics? No. Um.

• 1:13:17Speaker 01

  Man, I kinda like both favorites. I kinda do.

• 1:13:21Bill Simmons?

  I like the Steelers and the Tees.

• 1:13:25Bill Simmons?

  Thursday.

• 1:13:28Bill Simmons?

  So we had two Wednesday games and then somehow they're like, let's also have a Thursday game.

• 1:13:32Speaker 01

  Yeah, barely.

• 1:13:34Bill Simmons?

  Seahawks at the Bears. I have another road favorite. I have Seahawks by two and a half.

• 1:13:42Speaker 01

  I changed this. I had three and a half. I changed it to four and a half. We're gonna split it. It is three and a half. I went four and a half. Yep.

• 1:13:53Bill Simmons?

  Thank God they fired Matt Eberflus.

• 1:13:57Speaker 01

  What a friggin disaster.

• 1:13:59Bill Simmons?

  That fixed it.

• 1:14:01Speaker 01

  It really is something.

• 1:14:02Bill Simmons?

  Sunday Marquee. This is a really good game. Vikings Packers in Minnesota. So one of the five best games of the year.

• 1:14:10Speaker 01

  Really good.

• 1:14:12Bill Simmons?

  I had the Vikings by two because I don't think, I think people, there's a shred of doubt like which even you have. It should be a three, but I'm gonna say Vikings by two.

• 1:14:23Speaker 01

  I had three and a half. And I, I still need some convincing that it shouldn't be. You're right. It's one and a half. You get it.

• 1:14:31Bill Simmons?

  What did you guess?

• 1:14:32Speaker 01

  I had three and a half. I, I.

• 1:14:34Bill Simmons?

  Oh, Jesus.

• 1:14:35Speaker 01

  I mean, why, what do you mean, Jesus?

• 1:14:37Bill Simmons?

  No, people like this Packers team.

• 1:14:39Speaker 01

  I know.

• 1:14:39Bill Simmons?

  One and a half is like, that's an even field line now. That means if it was in Green Bay, it would be Green Bay by one.

• 1:14:44Speaker 01

  It shouldn't be. It shouldn't be. Packers off a short week and Vikings. I'm gonna, don't get me wrong. I'm gonna take the Packers after all this nonsense talk, but.

• 1:14:53Bill Simmons?

  People like the Packers. Wow. So Steelers Packers is a tease. Look at that one.

• 1:15:01Bill Simmons?

  Watchables, I got four and it's mostly playoff related. Chargers at the Pats because the Chargers need it. I think it's, it's a game to watch. It'll also be fun because Drake May is really good at football. You'll enjoy watching him. Drake May.

• 1:15:17Speaker 01

  This is a Saturday game, Saturday morning, right? For us?

• 1:15:20Bill Simmons?

  Oh, you're right. It's a Saturday game.

• 1:15:21Speaker 01

  It is three Saturday games. Yeah.

• 1:15:24Bill Simmons?

  Oh, see, I didn't mark down my Saturday games.

• 1:15:26Speaker 01

  This screws you up. This screws you up, buddy. I win the week. I win the week. This is like you're not signing your golf card.

• 1:15:32Bill Simmons?

  No, no, no.

• 1:15:33Speaker 01

  I win the week.

• 1:15:33Bill Simmons?

  It's fine.

• 1:15:36Bill Simmons?

  Chargers Pats. I have the Chargers by four in New England.

• 1:15:42Speaker 01

  All right, I get this. I said six and a half and it's five and a half.

• 1:15:48Bill Simmons?

  That's stupid. It's too high. I like the Pats.

• 1:15:51Speaker 01

  No. Have you seen their quarterback?

• 1:15:54Bill Simmons?

  The problem for the Pats in this game is they had the Lad McConkey pick.

• 1:16:00Bill Simmons?

  Number 34, traded backwards three spots to 37 to take Polk.

• 1:16:07Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:16:07Bill Simmons?

  And then with the fourth rounder they got, they took Baker. And McConkey on Thursday night had more yards in that game than those two guys have had the entire season.

• 1:16:17Speaker 01

  Polk was good though. Shit.

• 1:16:19Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, Polk lost his confidence. Yeah, I don't know what happened. Uh, next Saturday game is Bengals Broncos. This is in Cincinnati. And I think there's going to be a little, little irrational Bengals love that pushes this line over three to three and a half. Bengals by three and a half.

• 1:16:38Speaker 01

  All right. Well, I was way irrational here. I said five and a half. It's three.

• 1:16:44Speaker 01

  Nobody trusts. Fandel does not trust the Bengals at all.

• 1:16:51Bill Simmons?

  This does feel like a-

• 1:16:51Speaker 01

  That's a Saturday game too, by the way, you know. Yeah.

• 1:16:53Bill Simmons?

  I'm, I'm, I'm on it.

• 1:16:54Speaker 01

  Oh, okay. All right.

• 1:16:56Bill Simmons?

  I didn't realize that I actually did this correctly. Cause the third one I have, I just wrote down watchables and I meant to write down Saturday. Cause the other one is Rams Cardinals, which is also a pretty good game.

• 1:17:08Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:17:08Bill Simmons?

  Although the Cards have been eliminated. It's in LA. And I'm going to say Rams by four and a half.

• 1:17:15Speaker 01

  It's Rams. Uh, I got this exactly. It's five and a half.

• 1:17:19Bill Simmons?

  Oh.

• 1:17:21Bill Simmons?

  Notice I'm on with these picks. I'm like very close every, this is usually a good sign for my betting.

• 1:17:26Speaker 01

  This is, the Cardinals beat them 41-10 in September?

• 1:17:30Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that was when the Rams were banged up though.

• 1:17:33Speaker 01

  Jeez.

• 1:17:33Bill Simmons?

  Fairly watchables. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

• 1:17:41Bill Simmons?

  Home for the Carolina Panthers.

• 1:17:45Bill Simmons?

  In a game that I think is almost guaranteed to be Joe House's underdog money line special on the Ringer Sunday pregame.

• 1:17:51Speaker 01

  He shouldn't do it.

• 1:17:52Bill Simmons?

  Lock it down. Uh, I Bucks by eight.

• 1:17:56Speaker 01

  Uh, you're gonna get this. I said nine and a half. Why is it nine and a half? It's eight and a half.

• 1:18:02Bill Simmons?

  No, I did get it. Teaser.

• 1:18:05Speaker 01

  They played what, two weeks ago, three weeks ago?

• 1:18:07Bill Simmons?

  I don't think I would tease Tampa because of that. I didn't love their defense. That was another iffy game for them.

• 1:18:14Bill Simmons?

  Okay, next fairly watchable Dolphins at Cleveland.

• 1:18:20Speaker 01

  What does fairly mean anymore? I gotta look up fairly.

• 1:18:23Bill Simmons?

  Well, it's an important game for the Dolphins. The Browns are always a dumpster fire. It's cold weather. Myles Garrett.

• 1:18:32Bill Simmons?

  This game can go in a lot of directions. I have Dolphins by six and a half.

• 1:18:36Speaker 01

  I get this. I said six. It is five and a half.

• 1:18:41Speaker 01

  Six to five, you're up.

• 1:18:43Bill Simmons?

  That would be a nice little cold weather test for the Dolphins if it's cold.

• 1:18:46Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:18:47Bill Simmons?

  Right? Like, let's see, let's see what you guys have.

• 1:18:50Speaker 01

  A quarterback bad enough that you could win where the temperature doesn't matter? It's interesting.

• 1:18:57Bill Simmons?

  Is there another quarterback that can play? Are they down the road with Thompson Robinson? Is there, do they have anybody else?

• 1:19:03Speaker 01

  They're talking about signing him for next year already. I was, I was looking into this. Keeping him around.

• 1:19:10Bill Simmons?

  Eagles Cowboys. In Philly.

• 1:19:16Bill Simmons?

  And I would have said 10 and a half before what I watched today. And now? I'm gonna say nine.

• 1:19:22Speaker 01

  Yeah, you're gonna get it anyway. I said eight and a half. It is, it is 10 and a half. You should, you could have stuck with it.

• 1:19:28Bill Simmons?

  Jesus.

• 1:19:31Bill Simmons?

  That's too high.

• 1:19:33Speaker 01

  Thirty-four, six. They beat us in November.

• 1:19:35Bill Simmons?

  That's too high, especially because I'm not convinced Hertz plays, Hertz plays next week. Are you?

• 1:19:40Speaker 01

  Well. Is it gonna be a dependent? Neurologist or an independent neurologist that tests us? We shouldn't make jokes. I don't know. Is this his first, though, right? Is this his first concussion?

• 1:19:52Bill Simmons?

  But the game doesn't a hundred percent matter for them. Like, why wouldn't they be, take it easy with them and just play pick it for a week?

• 1:19:58Speaker 01

  Right. Yeah, it's true. They like beating the Cowboys, that's why, but.

• 1:20:03Bill Simmons?

  Four poop fact of games. Bills, Giants and Buffalo. I got Bills by 12 and a half.

• 1:20:09Speaker 01

  Jets, right?

• 1:20:09Bill Simmons?

  Bills, Jets. My bad.

• 1:20:10Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:20:11Bill Simmons?

  Bills minus 12 and a half against the Giants.

• 1:20:13Speaker 01

  Oh, no. I had 10. It's nine and a half.

• 1:20:17Bill Simmons?

  Too low.

• 1:20:19Speaker 01

  Let's take that. Let's, let's figure something out with that.

• 1:20:23Bill Simmons?

  It feels like a three-team seven-pointer.

• 1:20:25Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:20:26Bill Simmons?

  Saints home for the Raiders. Awful game.

• 1:20:29Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:20:31Bill Simmons?

  I have the Saints by two and a half.

• 1:20:34Speaker 01

  Ah, jerk. I had three. It is two and a half.

• 1:20:38Bill Simmons?

  Colts at the Giants.

• 1:20:42Bill Simmons?

  What's crazy is I don't think the Giants can be getting under a touchdown against anybody at this point who's half decent to somewhat crappy, which is the Colts are in there.

• 1:20:51Speaker 01

  No, they can. No, go, go on. You should guess under. Guess under a touchdown.

• 1:20:55Bill Simmons?

  I got Colts minus eight.

• 1:20:57Speaker 01

  Shit. I said six. It's seven and a half. You got it.

• 1:21:02Bill Simmons?

  I'm on this week, Sal.

• 1:21:03Speaker 01

  Damn. Hold on. Let me count. Can I even win?

• 1:21:06Bill Simmons?

  You're done.

• 1:21:07Speaker 01

  Seven, eight, nine, two, three, four, five, six. You're right. Three. I'm down three with three left.

• 1:21:16Bill Simmons?

  Jags home for the Titans.

• 1:21:20Bill Simmons?

  I got Jags minus one and a half. I think this is a neutral field line.

• 1:21:24Speaker 01

  Man, I can't believe how much I'm losing by half a point here. I said two. It is one and a half.

• 1:21:31Bill Simmons?

  I'm on it today.

• 1:21:32Speaker 01

  You really, it's like when the Patriots were cheating at their best, the spy cams and everything, stealing signs, everything working. That's kind of...

• 1:21:38Bill Simmons?

  You say what you need to say to help yourself.

• 1:21:40Speaker 01

  That's what you got. Thank you.

• 1:21:42Bill Simmons?

  I mean, we agreed that minus one and a half is the neutral field line, right?

• 1:21:45Speaker 01

  I know. They shouldn't even have a line on this.

• 1:21:47Bill Simmons?

  Are the Jags one iota better than the Titans or vice versa? They both suck. How, I mean, that's a neutral field line. Sunday night.

• 1:21:54Speaker 01

  And it was 10-6 a couple of weeks ago. Yep.

• 1:21:57Bill Simmons?

  Sunday night, Washington home

• 1:22:01Bill Simmons?

  for the Falcons.

• 1:22:02Speaker 01

  Ah.

• 1:22:03Bill Simmons?

  It's a good game.

• 1:22:05Speaker 01

  Does it mean anything for the Washington? I know there's like a 3% chance they don't make it or something, but ah, that, that touchdown now, that really did kill me.

• 1:22:13Bill Simmons?

  Does it mean anything? Let me see. So...

• 1:22:16Speaker 01

  No, they could still, I think, be out.

• 1:22:17Bill Simmons?

  No, Seattle or Atlanta, like the, the Seattle Atlanta combo could catch them, right?

• 1:22:24Bill Simmons?

  Well, you get like a three way tie at 10 and seven.

• 1:22:27Speaker 01

  I guess that's what it would be.

• 1:22:29Bill Simmons?

  If they had clinched, we would have heard that they clinched.

• 1:22:31Speaker 01

  Right. No, I know. I saw a cornack. You said.

• 1:22:33Bill Simmons?

  Oh, and by the way, they're playing Atlanta, which is one of the teams that could catch them. So.

• 1:22:36Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:22:39Bill Simmons?

  Washington minus three and a half is my guess.

• 1:22:42Speaker 01

  I get this. I said four. It's four and a half, but I think that's a little high.

• 1:22:47Bill Simmons?

  That's too high.

• 1:22:50Speaker 01

  Atlanta has Kyle Pitts, though.

• 1:22:51Bill Simmons?

  They factored in the Kyle Pitts team interception.

• 1:22:57Bill Simmons?

  Last one, Monday night, a game that I guarantee they were thinking was going to be fucking awesome. Detroit at San Francisco. This was like ESPN was probably one of their first draft picks when they draft. What games they want to have for Monday night.

• 1:23:11Speaker 01

  It's the NFC Championship.

• 1:23:12Bill Simmons?

  Probably a top three.

• 1:23:14Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:23:14Bill Simmons?

  Game, right? Oh, yeah. Let's put that December after the Monday after Christmas Lions Niners. That's gonna be one of our best games. We'll have an awesome Manning cast. Well, the joke's on you because this game's gonna suck. Uh, Lions minus six and a half is my guess.

• 1:23:30Speaker 01

  Wow. I said five and a half. It is three and a half, Bill.

• 1:23:34Bill Simmons?

  Oh, my Lord.

• 1:23:36Speaker 01

  Wait, did I maybe six, eight, three?

• 1:23:39Bill Simmons?

  Yep, I won.

• 1:23:40Speaker 01

  No, now you won. 10-8.

• 1:23:43Bill Simmons?

  Damn. What? Three and a half? What's the explanation for that? The Lions need the game. They're trying to get the one seed. How does that make sense?

• 1:23:54Speaker 01

  Is this a get right game for the Niners offense? If the Lions are that banged up, now have to travel.

• 1:24:01Bill Simmons?

  You know, I'm in an unbelievable hedge situation with the Lions one seed if they win that game.

• 1:24:07Bill Simmons?

  Cause we both have, we have a lot of one seed money.

• 1:24:10Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:24:10Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, we're like, we had them at like six to one. They're gonna be home for Minnesota, week 18.

• 1:24:17Speaker 01

  Right. Yeah, sure.

• 1:24:18Bill Simmons?

  If they win, they get the one seed. If they lose, they don't get the one seed. We'll be able to take the Minnesota money line and just walk away with a profit. And yet, we won't do it because we're gonna have that heat moment. Where you did the Tom Sizemore and you go, for me, the action is the juice. Let's ride the Lions. And all of a sudden, we're riding the Lions. That's how it's gonna play out.

• 1:24:39Speaker 01

  I like that movie a lot. And I like where you're coming from. Should we bet the Vikings this week? Isn't that kind of the same thing?

• 1:24:49Bill Simmons?

  Well, the parlay would be they'd have to beat Green Bay.

• 1:24:52Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:24:53Bill Simmons?

  And Detroit.

• 1:24:54Speaker 01

  Yeah, but if they lose this game.

• 1:24:57Bill Simmons?

  But what the odds wouldn't be.

• 1:24:59Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:24:59Bill Simmons?

  I don't feel like the odds are worth the how hard that's gonna be to do that.

• 1:25:03Speaker 01

  All right.

• 1:25:04Bill Simmons?

  Well, do they have the odds? I'm going on Fanduel now.

• 1:25:07Speaker 01

  For the division?

• 1:25:09Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:25:10Speaker 01

  Minus 290 for Detroit, plus 240 for the Vikings. I guess we could just do that. You can't be the one seed not win the division, right?

• 1:25:19Bill Simmons?

  You know, another interesting thing that happened with, speaking of Fanduel. Did you see the MVP odds?

• 1:25:25Speaker 01

  I have not looked.

• 1:25:26Bill Simmons?

  Cause Alan, Alan wasn't awesome today.

• 1:25:28Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:25:29Bill Simmons?

  It's down to minus 450.

• 1:25:31Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:25:32Bill Simmons?

  They're playing, who did, who did they say, who did we say they're playing this week? They're playing the Jets. And then week 18 Pats, he might not even play. And then Lamar's playing on Christmas. Trying to get the two, the two seater, three seed.

• 1:25:45Speaker 01

  Lots of eyeballs there, yeah.

• 1:25:47Bill Simmons?

  So Lamar is plus 380 now for MVP.

• 1:25:51Speaker 01

  He'll have to win the division, right? So he has to get lucky and have big games.

• 1:25:55Bill Simmons?

  I think if he's incredible on Christmas, it's in play. But Alan was nine to one Thursday and now he's minus 450.

• 1:26:01Speaker 01

  Yeah, well, he threw an interception, God forbid. That's good. That's a good battle, I think.

• 1:26:08Bill Simmons?

  And then make the playoffs odds.

• 1:26:12Speaker 01

  They only have four, they only have.

• 1:26:14Bill Simmons?

  Cincinnati's 22 to one not to make the playoffs.

• 1:26:16Speaker 01

  Wait a minute. That went up from this morning?

• 1:26:21Bill Simmons?

  There, if you bet them to make the playoffs, it's plus 1040.

• 1:26:24Speaker 01

  It was 680. They have a worse shot now. I guess because the Colts and Dolphins.

• 1:26:28Bill Simmons?

  You know, because of the Colts and Dolphins, yeah.

• 1:26:30Speaker 01

  Wow, numbers are fun. Yeah, the Colts are plus 390 and the Dolphins are plus 820.

• 1:26:37Bill Simmons?

  And Denver's minus 280.

• 1:26:42Speaker 01

  So the Colts need Denver to lose to Cincinnati and then they need to win their last two, which you said were very easy, right? Who was it? The Raiders, Giants, who was some?

• 1:26:49Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, but they're the Colts.

• 1:26:52Speaker 01

  I know, they really are.

• 1:26:52Bill Simmons?

  Richardson just loves to throw, they're playing the Giants, so they'll win next week.

• 1:26:56Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:26:57Bill Simmons?

  But then they're home against the Jags. I guess that's pretty easy.

• 1:27:00Speaker 01

  Oh, that could be close.

• 1:27:01Bill Simmons?

  Those might be two of the three worst teams in the league.

• 1:27:03Speaker 01

  Yeah, the Jags will try though.

• 1:27:07Bill Simmons?

  So Indy.

• 1:27:09Speaker 01

  That's a fun one.

• 1:27:10Bill Simmons?

  Yes, plus 390. Denver has.

• 1:27:16Bill Simmons?

  Denver's at Cincinnati, home KC.

• 1:27:19Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:27:21Bill Simmons?

  Why are they favored?

• 1:27:23Speaker 01

  I'm not, I go back and forth as to who that's going to matter for. Well, now it's going to matter for Denver, right?

• 1:27:29Speaker 01

  Is Denver in if they win?

• 1:27:32Speaker 01

  Now.

• 1:27:33Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I think they have to win the last two.

• 1:27:34Speaker 01

  They have to win both.

• 1:27:36Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:27:36Speaker 01

  So that, yeah, yep, that makes sense. Interesting.

• 1:27:42Bill Simmons?

  And then we have, uh,

• 1:27:45Bill Simmons?

  conference.

• 1:27:48Bill Simmons?

  Oh, the one seed bets.

• 1:27:48Speaker 01

  I think Denver would only have to win one, Simmons, because that, that minus 280, wouldn't be minus 280 if they have to win both, would it, would it be?

• 1:27:58Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, maybe they just have, or maybe they have to win one and then all the other variables, if anyone loses anything. So they have one seed bets on Fanduel. Detroit's minus 310, Minnesota's plus 310, Eagles are 17 to 1. They're not winning. So we could hedge right now with the Vikings plus 310 if we wanted to.

• 1:28:18Bill Simmons?

  For me, the action is the juice.

• 1:28:21Speaker 01

  That's it, Billy Sizemore. I like it. Stay in put. It was the worst defense.

• 1:28:28Bill Simmons?

  What do you think, Raheem? The bank is worth the risk. Raheem's threatening to go in another cold funk, by the way. I'm worried about him.

• 1:28:36Speaker 01

  What do you mean?

• 1:28:37Bill Simmons?

  He's, he's, he lost a couple of bets. He was all upset in the text thread.

• 1:28:41Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's all right. He's in Vegas. He'll be fine. He's in Vegas for like three and a half weeks. What could go wrong?

• 1:28:47Bill Simmons?

  What could go wrong? We'll see, we'll see him for round one in my house.

• 1:28:52Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:28:53Bill Simmons?

  I don't know what kind of shape he's going to be in mentally, what kind of shape JJ's going to be in. What if we get Dolphins in round one?

• 1:29:00Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah. Yeah, we should start rooting for the Dolphins now. That's what we do.

• 1:29:04Bill Simmons?

  So Rudy says the Broncos only have to win one of the next two to get in, which we probably should have known.

• 1:29:09Speaker 01

  Minus 280, yeah.

• 1:29:11Bill Simmons?

  That's at Cincy, home KC.

• 1:29:14Speaker 01

  Well, they're only a three-point underdog at that Cincy, so they're right there.

• 1:29:19Bill Simmons?

  What do you got for parent corner?

• 1:29:21Speaker 01

  Parent corner. All right. Um, so I mean, you would, you would thank you for checking up on me there Saturday. Uh, it did turn out my son did not have ringworm, so we did have to go to the tournament. I had to drive him to get weighed in because the team doesn't have buses at 7:00 AM, sat in my car. I bet EPL like a lunatic. Tournament start at 9:30, all these games going on, you know, it was supposed to be, luckily the games weren't great. But, you know, I still had to watch wrestling till like 2:00 PM. So my car from 7:00 AM to 2:00.

• 1:29:53Bill Simmons?

  The fight was at like 1:30.

• 1:29:55Speaker 01

  Got it. It was like 2:30. I got home just in time for it. Yeah.

• 1:29:58Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 1:29:58Speaker 01

  So, but you and I were talking about this and I feel like we should go further with it. This is, I think you said something like, we do these things, why? So that our kids don't abandon us later in life when we need them.

• 1:30:12Bill Simmons?

  Oh, you want to talk, this is, yeah, this is the depressing text thread we had.

• 1:30:15Speaker 01

  It was, but I think it's, I think we should make it official. I don't know what we call this, but we should make agreements with our kids.

• 1:30:22Bill Simmons?

  Lay, it's layaway plans.

• 1:30:24Speaker 01

  Is it layaway?

• 1:30:25Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. When we get old and we're dying and they're taking care of us. If they give any, if they complain at all, we're like, I was at that fucking wrestling tournament for you when you were 15. I wasted my whole Saturday and it was a great sports day. You're gonna, you're gonna go get me a glass of water now.

• 1:30:41Speaker 01

  I like it, but I wonder if we presented like right away, like right when they move out, when they're 18 years old, you have a list, like a scroll of stuff. I don't know if we call it a parental prenup or uh, kin insurance maybe. Um, but, and you like, you just show your kid.

• 1:30:56Bill Simmons?

  Kin insurance.

• 1:30:57Speaker 01

  Kin insurance. That's what it is.

• 1:30:59Bill Simmons?

  You have to take care of me.

• 1:31:00Speaker 01

  Yeah. And it's like, hey, remember you got a D in geometry and I found out and you told your mother you got a C and uh, well, I'd never said anything. So you have to shop for me when I'm old. And remember I took you to wrestling tournaments in Orange County at 6:00 AM all throughout the fall? And I don't watch Penn State who had thousands of dollars on a teaser, also for your benefit on my phone from the smelly bleachers. You're gonna wipe me when I turn 80. All right. And uh, if I bail you out of juvenile detention, you're building a ramp in my house when I can't walk up the stairs. I think we should have to lay it out for these kids. As we're, you know, it's not like, all right, plus you get money, whatever, if I pass on, but.

• 1:31:37Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:31:38Speaker 01

  I think this needs to be an official thing.

• 1:31:40Bill Simmons?

  Insurance.

• 1:31:42Speaker 01

  Insurance.

• 1:31:43Bill Simmons?

  So your dad, if he had played the insurance card a couple of years ago, is anything different? You spending more time with him on the weekends?

• 1:31:50Speaker 01

  I would never see him after he turned 50. No, no, no.

• 1:31:54Bill Simmons?

  You're like, I've lost your insurance papers.

• 1:31:56Speaker 01

  No, he's, he's like the Dallas Cowboys. Like, you know what? Why, why couldn't you be good early in the season, early in my life? Why are you turning it on now as a grandparent? No, I shouldn't say that. He's a great dude. Insurance.

• 1:32:12Bill Simmons?

  Why are you trying to finish nine and eight?

• 1:32:14Speaker 01

  What would you say to Ben? What would you, what would you present to Ben?

• 1:32:18Bill Simmons?

  I mean, I'm lying for Ben tonight. He's got girls over and he's like, don't tell mom. I'm like, all right, I won't tell her. Oh, shit, now I'm on a live YouTube. I guess I said something.

• 1:32:27Speaker 01

  He's got to take you to the Celtics game.

• 1:32:29Bill Simmons?

  I'm gonna invite people over while my dad's doing a podcast and defer him in the house.

• 1:32:33Speaker 01

  Perfect.

• 1:32:34Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it's great. In fact, we probably should wrap it up soon. Uh, yeah, I'm gonna cash it on my, my insurance.

• 1:32:41Speaker 01

  I love it.

• 1:32:44Bill Simmons?

  So mine, so.

• 1:32:47Speaker 01

  I think he just said yours. It's better than that? He's got kids, he's got girls over right now?

• 1:32:52Bill Simmons?

  My, uh, my stepmom, who has been in my life since the mid eighties. And the whole time, when we met her, she was like a young, when my dad met her, she was a young doctor. Right? And, you know, doing like the crazy hours, like you would see on the Grey's Anatomy and just like nuts. And then eventually that got better and better. I had a practice. She's been, uh, you know, delivering babies, doing all kinds of stuff, O B J Y N, forever. And this is, this is end of the year. She's done, retiring.

• 1:33:25Speaker 01

  Really?

• 1:33:26Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that's it. Great career. Saw a lot of female body parts.

• 1:33:33Speaker 01

  Not as many as Ben, but yeah, yeah, somewhere.

• 1:33:36Bill Simmons?

  Had a lot of, and it's a weird thing, cause like, like Zoe had a playoff game.

• 1:33:42Bill Simmons?

  Like a month ago and the coach came over, the other team before the game and it was, and Ma was like, my stepmother was like, oh, I delivered her baby. And it's like, she just runs into these people who she's delivered babies and done these, you know, the most intimate kind of like doctor, patient things. And it's like, oh, this is Jessica. I've delivered three of her kids. So anyway, she's wrapping it up.

• 1:34:04Bill Simmons?

  So I thought, since this is a nice moment.

• 1:34:08Bill Simmons?

  I would, I would tell a story about my stepmother, who I don't know if I've done much on parent corner, who doesn't like to be talked about at all and is probably mortified right now.

• 1:34:18Bill Simmons?

  When she, when I was in, going to college in Worcester, but then I was living in Boston, I would go hang out with my dad and we would watch sports, you know, we'd go watch like Celtics game, football game. I would just go over, we'd get dinner and she would always be on call. And part of the reason I would be over is like, oh, we'll watch sports, Molly's not gonna be home, like she, she wouldn't want to watch. Her car would always, you would see like they had this driveway in front of where the TV was in the window. And there would be like a minute left and be like, tie game, we'll be back after this to see what happens with Larry Bird and the Celtics. And then the headlights would be in the driveway. And it would be like, oh, she's home. And then she would come

• 1:35:00Bill Simmons?

  in and we'd, and my dad would have to talk to her about her day as like the last minute of these games. And I used to think it was like the funniest thing ever. I was like, oh my God, like uncanny timing for, for showing up anytime there's a big moment. And I thought it was like a, like a couple time coincidence thing, but it became something that happened all the time. And I was telling my buddy Gus about this and he had the same thing with his wife, where he'd be watching like a Mets game and she'd come home with the groceries. Oh my God, I gotta tell you a story. And it's like, I think some people have this power and other people don't, where they show up at the perfectly wrong time of the game. So I was like, well, when I get married, that's never gonna happen to me.

• 1:35:43Bill Simmons?

  And then I met my wife, same thing. Shows up, comes, comes home right there in these huge moments. Like, so I don't, do you think some people just have these powers? It's like a magnet? Cause my stepmother, I feel like invented it.

• 1:35:58Speaker 01

  I think 30, 40 years ago, it's more of a power. Now, you and I watch sports all the time. So it's gonna be.

• 1:36:04Bill Simmons?

  There's no way it even phases us?

• 1:36:06Speaker 01

  Cause sports is on all the time. But also our TV breaks into four bot. Like there's always gonna be something interesting that they're gonna walk in on.

• 1:36:12Bill Simmons?

  We can pause it.

• 1:36:13Speaker 01

  Right. What I want to know is maybe like a fox, she's been hanging out in the driveway, listening to the Celtics game.

• 1:36:19Bill Simmons?

  Oh, waiting to fuck with us?

• 1:36:20Speaker 01

  Waiting, yes.

• 1:36:21Bill Simmons?

  Oh, that's interesting.

• 1:36:22Speaker 01

  She's a bigger Celtics fan.

• 1:36:23Bill Simmons?

  I wouldn't be surprised.

• 1:36:23Speaker 01

  Than you are, it turns out. She's actually roots harder than you and just.

• 1:36:27Bill Simmons?

  I wouldn't be surprised.

• 1:36:28Speaker 01

  She's the greatest practical joker of all time. I like that.

• 1:36:32Bill Simmons?

  She, her favorite Celtic was Robert Parish.

• 1:36:35Speaker 01

  Nice.

• 1:36:35Bill Simmons?

  Still wears the Parish jersey or the KG jersey to the games.

• 1:36:39Speaker 01

  Really?

• 1:36:40Bill Simmons?

  When my dad met her, she didn't know anything about sports, like nothing, didn't have a TV. And now has this whole Celtic sister. Anyway.

• 1:36:47Speaker 01

  That's great.

• 1:36:47Bill Simmons?

  Dr. Molly Clark, hanging it up, end of the year. Great job by her.

• 1:36:51Speaker 01

  Great job by you, Dr. Molly Clark. Yeah, she delivered.

• 1:36:54Bill Simmons?

  Lot of deliveries, lot of vaginas.

• 1:36:56Speaker 01

  She delivered 14 of Tiny Archibald's babies.

• 1:37:00Bill Simmons?

  Calvin Murphy.

• 1:37:02Speaker 01

  No idea.

• 1:37:04Bill Simmons?

  What do you, what do you got for the holidays? How many people?

• 1:37:05Speaker 01

  Well, we got, we got a Ringer pregame show next Sunday. I don't know if I mentioned, I'm 14 and two with my wisest wager against the odds.

• 1:37:13Bill Simmons?

  You didn't mention that.

• 1:37:14Speaker 01

  I didn't, I should mention it now. 14 and fricking two. That's pretty good. Christmas games we'll talk about on Against All Odds, the NBA picks. We got a lot for you there. And that's it. Just sticking around. What do you got?

• 1:37:26Bill Simmons?

  How many people?

• 1:37:28Speaker 01

  How many people for Christmas?

• 1:37:29Bill Simmons?

  Like how many people during those two Christmas games? How many people are you gonna have to navigate?

• 1:37:34Speaker 01

  Nine.

• 1:37:35Bill Simmons?

  That's not bad.

• 1:37:36Speaker 01

  Nine. Yeah. Not too bad.

• 1:37:37Bill Simmons?

  You know what's interesting? The games are earlier.

• 1:37:40Speaker 01

  Yeah, right.

• 1:37:41Bill Simmons?

  Because they wanted to get them on in like, you know, Europe and so the, the first game's at 10 o'clock. It's like, almost like Thanksgiving times. And then the second one's at 1:30. There's no night game.

• 1:37:51Speaker 01

  I think Thanksgiving's a bigger pain to ask to navigate because you have that hour. You actually have to sit at a table. Christmas, I get, you know, you have the same kind of thing, but the opening gifts doesn't take forever anymore, does it?

• 1:38:03Bill Simmons?

  Well, we don't have little kids anymore.

• 1:38:05Speaker 01

  Well, how long do you knock even, even so? It was an hour?

• 1:38:08Bill Simmons?

  The little kids part though, that's like in the morning, you open, you take the pictures and then at 10 o'clock, you're like, all right, I'll see you guys later. Mahomes is on. It's tough. It's a tough one to pull off.

• 1:38:19Speaker 01

  I need a wife who delivers babies or something so she can go and I'll let her know when to come in.

• 1:38:25Bill Simmons?

  Lot of babies. Babies, they name babies after her.

• 1:38:28Speaker 01

  That's great.

• 1:38:29Bill Simmons?

  Like hundreds of Mollys in the, in the New England area because everybody likes her.

• 1:38:34Speaker 01

  Amazing. Good job.

• 1:38:35Bill Simmons?

  Hanging it up. Uh, speaking of hanging it up, we're hanging up the podcast. Thanks to Kyle and Sarudy and Gahal. Sal? I'm gonna be back with the rewatchables on Monday and then I'm not gonna be back on this podcast till Thursday. What's your schedule gonna be?

• 1:38:50Speaker 01

  Well, I don't care about your other podcast. No, against all odds, you'll hear it Tuesday morning. We'll do it right after the Monday night game. And like I said, Ringer pregame show on Sunday. Check it out.

• 1:39:01Bill Simmons?

  All right. Good job by you. Happy holidays. Merry Christmas.

• 1:39:04Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:39:30Bill Simmons?

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• 1:40:14Bill Simmons?

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• 1:40:50Speaker 03

  Para los grandes, para los chicos, para los bajos y los altos, los pacifistas, los valientes, para los optimistas y los pesimistas, los que valoran lo de adentro, para los que están lejos, los que no ven de lejos y los que no ven de cerca, para los introvertidos y los extrovertidos, para los que piensan y los que hacen, para los que nos mostraron el camino. Coca-Cola, para todos. Compra una Coca-Cola en una tienda cerca de usted.