Saquon’s Big Night, a Vegas Savior Idea, Wobbly Washington, Surging Seattle, and Guess the Lines With Cousin Sal

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal to discuss the Eagles' shellacking of the Rams and the wild finish to the Cowboys-Commanders game (1:43). They also discuss Cardinals-Seahawks, 49ers-Packers, Bears-Vikings, whether Sam Darnold is for real, a close call for the Chiefs vs. the Panthers (33:46), Texans-Titans, Broncos-Raiders, Patriots-Dolphins, and Giants-Buccaneers, where they wonder, "Can Tampa steal the NFC South?" (41:24). Finally, they guess the lines for NFL Week 13 (1:02:05) and close the show with Parent Corner (1:29:06). Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Cousin Sal Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Bill Simmons?

  Coming up, week 12 in the books, a lot happened. It's all next.

• 0:07Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats. It's football season. Uber Eats is delivering deals every game day. This week, get 10 free boneless wings from Wingstop on qualifying orders. Game on, flavor on, Wingstop is here. So if your fantasy league is coming over for some in-person smack talk, order Wingstop on Uber Eats and get 10 boneless wings free. It's the perfect way to keep everyone fed tonight so you can focus on the game. No matter who scores big tonight, you'll score a great deal. Order now and get 10 boneless wings free from Wingstop, only on Uber Eats. Offer valid from September 14th to September 27th, and from November 2nd to November 16th. Order minimum before taxes and fees is required. See retailer's storefront for details. Taxes, fees, and terms apply. Product availability

• 0:52Bill Simmons?

  varies by region. Exclusions may apply. See app for details. This episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast is presented by State Farm. Every football player brings something different to the field. Maybe they have a cannon arm, speed, power. Maybe they have their own podcast. That being said, no two players are exactly alike. And the same is true off the field. That's why State Farm takes the time to get to know you, so they can help personalize coverage for your life and budget. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. We're also brought to you by The Ringer Podcast Network. I have new rewatchables coming for you on Monday night. We did Running Scared. Yeah, Billy Crystal, Gregory Hines, an all-time

• 1:36Bill Simmons?

  buddy cop classic. And we did it because on Friday on HBO and on the Max app, we're premiering our latest Music Box documentary. It is called Yacht Rock. It's really good. There's no way you're not gonna like it. I'm just telling you. The trailer's already out. I'll put the trailer on my Instagram this week, but uh...

• 1:58Bill Simmons?

  I'm really proud of this one. You're gonna like it. Telling you. But anyway, we did Running Scared because that was the official end of Yacht Rock, the Sweet Freedom video, which we talked about on the podcast. It's me and Chris Ryan, Monday night. Stay tuned. You'll also be able to watch it on the Ringer Movies YouTube channel. You can watch all the videos and clips from this podcast on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. And coming up, Cousin Sal and I, we taped this or recorded this. I always say taped because I'm old. We recorded this episode live on YouTube. You can join us every Sunday night if you want to on the Bill Simmons channel. Here we go. First, our friends from Pearl Jam.

• 3:00Bill Simmons?

  All right. It is Sunday. It is 8:35 PM Pacific time. Just watched the Eagles absolutely kill the Rams. Sal, I did something unusual there. I wasn't gonna bet on this game. And then I watched how bad the Patriots were against the Dolphins. And I said to myself, Jesus, they should have beaten the Rams last week. That might be the Rams are bad. And I bet on the Eagles. Yeah. Yeah.

• 3:25Speaker 01

  That that rarely works. So congratulations, right? When we start playing mind games and double guessing and triple guessing things. But God damn, they really did look good. I hate that this is, I hate the Giants that much more. Not that Saquon would have been good with them. He would have been ineffective and whatever. You know, they don't have an offensive line or a quarterback that could help. But to let him go to the Eagles and now, I don't know, man, they're, they're gonna be top two in the NFC, almost no doubt now.

• 3:52Bill Simmons?

  Well, it seems like things have tilted too far with the running back position. Where the contracts went down, everyone talked about how replaceable they were. And then it hit the point last summer where, or last spring when Derrick Henry and Saquon were both available, they were on bad teams. Their stock was down because of the quarterbacks, the coaching, you know, they're just wasted on the teams they were on, bad offensive lines. And then you grab those guys and put them on a different team and they look superhuman. And I wonder if going forward now, we'll just know, like in fantasy, in futures and all this stuff, it's like, oh yeah, Derrick Henry was on a bad team last year. He should be on a really, he should be in a really good situation this year. I don't know why this was so hard to figure out, so.

• 4:37Speaker 01

  Josh Jacobs also, right? To a lesser extent, not in the top two with those guys, but yeah, I know, I know, I know. And you need a good running back to, to go far in January. I was wrong about all of it, but um, you know, I, I don't, Bill, I don't know what to tell you. Melissa Starks talking about being the recipient of the tush push and I just, I can't comment. I like this job, Mike, come on.

• 5:00Bill Simmons?

  Thank God we're on a seven second delay. Thank God.

• 5:06Bill Simmons?

  Best running back rankings. Are Saquon and Henry one and two?

• 5:13Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 5:14Bill Simmons?

  I think if you're doing tandems or running back core, Detroit is probably awesome in the conversation, right? So Saquon and Henry, it's the Gibbs Montgomery combo. And then I don't even think we can make them out Rushmore. I think those have been the, the, kind of the best running backs slash whatever. And then every, then it's like a drop off to whoever you'd want to have next. Miami might have a chance to get there because it feels like those guys are getting going now, but I think that's, it's the top three at least.

• 5:42Speaker 01

  I want to put Ezekiel Elliott in there, but I just, I just can't, I can't do it. Let's see, who else, who else would have been, well McCaffrey, you, you want to put McCaffrey, but he's just now, now he's stuck on the bad team. I don't know how that happened.

• 5:56Bill Simmons?

  Well, and he doesn't look good is the other issue, right?

• 5:58Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah.

• 5:59Bill Simmons?

  Do you think he looks good?

• 6:00Speaker 01

  Ball up, no, no, no, I would, I would never say that about another man, but no, I don't, I don't, uh, I don't know. He's just, uh, that, that team is just falling apart and they were so, so deep and you wouldn't think, you would think they were like bulletproof for this, kind of meltdown, but not the case. No way in hell they're making the playoffs now.

• 6:18Bill Simmons?

  Well, Henry and Barkley are one, two in rushing. Josh Jacobs is third and, and Chuba Hubbard is fourth.

• 6:26Speaker 01

  Right.

• 6:26Bill Simmons?

  So, good luck on your fantasy teams, everybody.

• 6:29Speaker 01

  Yeah, I, I, I think Philly, Philly plays Baltimore next week. So in terms of this offensive player of the year award, like I think it's going to be one next week, even though, even though, you know, I think Barkley is a sizable favorite at this point.

• 6:43Bill Simmons?

  And he's sneaking into the MVP conversation, he won't win.

• 6:49Speaker 01

  Right.

• 6:49Bill Simmons?

  So running backs aren't allowed to win and we'll talk ourselves out of that in two weeks. So we can start with Eagles, Lions, how this is a pretty amazing NFC, or we could just do the gambling angle of how Washington absolutely murdered a slew of three team teases, money line parlays, just, oh, I'll throw Washington in. Literally, nobody on Dallas is playing. Backup QB, they're missing five of their best seven guys. They need the win. I'll just put them in there. And we haven't had one of those in a while, Sal, where it was just a mass murder, John Wayne Gacy style, going into the basement, just getting decapitated.

• 7:31Bill Simmons?

  Just brutal. And then what made it even worse was you're like, oh, I can't believe I lost that game. And then somehow Washington comes back with this insane McLaurin play that happens once a year. And they make it and that fucking kicker is lining up. And I, I, I'm like, I should be more nervous right now. And then I'm like, I am nervous. And then of course, terrible snap. You knew once you saw the snap, he was going to hook it. Not only did he hook it, he missed it by, I would say 10 yards.

• 8:01Speaker 01

  Awful.

• 8:01Bill Simmons?

  And, and, and they end up losing the tease anyway. The, probably the, the, other than the hail Mary, maybe the second biggest gambling moment of the year.

• 8:11Speaker 01

  Yeah, I would think so. I would say so. Yeah. But you know, this one was a sloppy, sloppy slop fest from the start, right? Like, and you know, also, I don't know what's going on with the kickers. Were we just too spoiled in the first few weeks when everybody was making like 59 and 61 yarders? And now, like, it doesn't even seem like it's raining, but everybody's kicks are getting blocked or sailing far right on extra points. But yeah.

• 8:34Bill Simmons?

  Fair bearing today from 28.

• 8:36Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah. Yeah. And people are like, well, you know, they put more loft on it if, if it's closer. These coaches have to get closer. I'm like, I don't think so. I don't know. I just don't know if anyone's blocking in practice. But yeah, and I was, I really wanted to be mad at my team. Like, what is that McLaurin bullshit? Like, are you kidding me? We can't lay a finger on him? And then when they missed the extra point, I'm like, can't you just let me be mad at my team?

• 9:00Bill Simmons?

  Right. Can you, can you call a timeout before the PAT so I could be mad for three minutes?

• 9:04Speaker 01

  Exactly. But the commies did a communist thing by not letting America cash on their three-team teaser. You're right.

• 9:12Bill Simmons?

  I think Washington, so we, I remember betting on Washington for the division at the height of the, wow, it looks like Washington's gonna actually be really good time of the season. And if you, if you go with the, if the Hail Mary doesn't happen, they're a 500 team. And they are way worse. So 12 games now. They're way worse in the second six than they were in the first six. Questions about whether they're even a playoff team at this point.

• 9:39Speaker 01

  I don't know if they get to 10. Yeah, I don't know.

• 9:40Bill Simmons?

  Listen, it was a suspicious line. There's no question. The line was too high. It was priced for maniacs like us to make us think twice before we did a three-teamer with them. But there was just no way I was gonna be nervous with Dallas. What I texted you after the game. The weird thing about this game was Dallas played well.

• 9:59Speaker 01

  Right.

• 9:59Bill Simmons?

  Like, you moved the ball, you ran the ball. Cooper Rush was pretty good. Like, he was throwing completions. I was nervous in the second quarter. I didn't like how it was going. The defense was really active. Washington couldn't run the ball at all. And, uh, and you played well enough that I actually had to, you know, I had to redo the playoff. I had them as a cross off. I don't know if.

• 10:21Speaker 01

  Oh, stop this garbage. Are you talk, what are you talking about? Yeah, I could see you smiling. You're, that's a nice little smirk you have there.

• 10:28Bill Simmons?

  No, it's not Michael Corleone in Godfather 3. It's Silvio as Michael Corleone. Just when I was out, they pulled me back in.

• 10:35Speaker 01

  No, they're crossed the hell off. They're, look, this is, they got up for this game. Like, not that.

• 10:41Bill Simmons?

  You're not crossed off yet.

• 10:42Speaker 01

  I could see, you're nuts. You're absolutely nuts.

• 10:46Bill Simmons?

  You're you're playing the Giants next week on Christmas. You could be five and seven. You beat Cincy at home and then you're at Carolina. You can be seven and seven in

• 10:55Speaker 01

  I was hoping

• 10:56Bill Simmons?

  three weeks.

• 10:57Speaker 01

  As a friend.

• 10:57Bill Simmons?

  Don't tell me you didn't look at this.

• 10:59Speaker 01

  Have more decency. I looked at it a month ago. I know what's up against it. We we have too many home games. First of all, we're gonna get crushed. But I I think we got up for this. And by the way, there's no way. You know, I I didn't predict this ahead of time. I was with the rest of the world, but we got up, wanted to show off for Dan Quinn. And just the same, we still needed two returns for touchdowns where our guy went untouched to to to to pull it off. So I don't know. I'm I'm not.

• 11:25Bill Simmons?

  Well, you needed more than that. You missed. The guy missed two PATs.

• 11:29Speaker 01

  Yeah, right.

• 11:30Bill Simmons?

  He missed two field goals. They got a pump blocked.

• 11:33Speaker 01

  We missed.

• 11:33Bill Simmons?

  And they gave up two kickoff touchdowns in the last five minutes of the game, which has to be a record.

• 11:38Speaker 01

  And one of the kickoffs was like mishandled at the one and he they still didn't get a finger on Turpin, who's very fast. But look, this is maybe it's this. Maybe we have to look at these division games like we did in college when we're like, no, no, division game. Take the underdog. I think every division game, except for yours, ended up one score today. That's not to say all the underdogs covered, but it was at least the ones ones, right, competitive games. I think that was four or five out of six. So.

• 12:09Bill Simmons?

  So Tennessee, seven and five. I mean, Washington, seven and five. They have Tennessee next week, bye week at New Orleans, home Philly, home Atlanta, at Dallas. There's a nine and eight in there. And you guys, you you would have at Philly in week 17, which seems like a like a terrible game, but they might have everything locked up. They might have the two seed locked up by then and that game might not even matter for them. But you play Washington in week 18. And there's a scenario where you're a game back from Washington, week 18. All the NFC North team, uh, West teams have just all beaten each other. They're all nine and eight. There's some nine and eight, you know, uh, clusterfuck that you could sneak in. I know you're thinking this deep down. I know you are.

• 12:54Speaker 01

  There's a scenario where I reach through the zoom and strangle you right now because how, how do you? Packers in, right? Packers eight, right? Uh, the Vikings have nine, they're in. And then you don't think like, first of all.

• 13:09Bill Simmons?

  I'll give you, I'll give you, I'll give you six playoff teams right now. Lions, Philly, Seattle and Atlanta. Let's say those are our four division winners. Minnesota's in and Green Bay's in. So there's six.

• 13:19Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 13:21Bill Simmons?

  Washington, seven and five. Arizona's six and five. You're two behind them. The Rams are five and six. You're a game back from them. Niners are five and six and Tampa's five and six. Ninety eight could get this seven seed. You can't, you can't rule it out. You can't. When, when could Dak come back?

• 13:39Speaker 01

  I'm ruling it out. He can come back, uh, as far as I'm concerned, when he could come back or when he can't come back. I don't, they, he could be back. He could be back by the end of the year. I, I don't think so. Why are we talking about this?

• 13:50Bill Simmons?

  I love this.

• 13:51Speaker 01

  I really hate this. I hate that you roped me in.

• 13:53Bill Simmons?

  Torturing you. You're gonna be five and seven after Thanksgiving.

• 13:56Speaker 01

  We bet Tampa Bay. Atlanta's gonna win some dumb shit ass games. So they're gonna get to nine wins, right? And, um, I don't know. Seattle and Arizona, someone stupid will get that seven seed. Don't worry. But I will say, unless, if, if your point is the NFC is not scary at all, except for the two teams and we can lock the Lions and Eagles in for the championship game. I'm all ears. Like I would, I would take odds on that right now. I don't like any other team.

• 14:24Bill Simmons?

  Atlanta's gonna win their division because they still have Vegas and the Giants and Carolina left.

• 14:30Speaker 01

  I thought we bet the, did you not bet Tampa? We said we were gonna bet Tampa. You didn't bet.

• 14:35Bill Simmons?

  I don't know if we ever did. Tampa's five and six.

• 14:37Speaker 01

  We did say that.

• 14:38Bill Simmons?

  But you play Tampa. You play Tampa in week 16.

• 14:46Speaker 01

  I'll say this about Washington. Obviously, you have to watch them today. You should be less confident in them, but they are completely different team that we fell in love with that punted twice in three weeks or something like their offense is very, are you going to get two touchdowns out of that offense? You can't guarantee if you look at their slate, doesn't matter who they play, you can't guarantee that.

• 15:08Bill Simmons?

  First half, Cliff Kingsbury, second half, he does this, right? That's his history. They can't run the ball. All right, like, be honest, you have to swear in your kid's life, all your Cowboys text threads you were on today, not one of them was like, hey, what's the path for us to make the playoffs? You did this wasn't discussed on a text thread.

• 15:27Speaker 01

  It was, but in a joking way, I think like I even tweeted Super Bowl bound and all that. That does, that doesn't count.

• 15:33Bill Simmons?

  Oh, so Rudy says Dak is officially out for the season.

• 15:36Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think he's, yeah, the IR puts him out.

• 15:39Bill Simmons?

  What if you sign Daniel Jones tomorrow?

• 15:42Speaker 01

  Well, I thought it'd be funny just to match him up against Cutlets, but I don't know. No, we're not getting to nine wins. We're not doing it. We will not do it.

• 15:52Bill Simmons?

  Can't be ruled out, Sal.

• 15:55Speaker 01

  You're crazy. I wanted to make fun of your team. This should not be.

• 15:57Bill Simmons?

  Well, we're gonna do that later. Don't worry. I have plenty of spots for that. Do you think the missed PAT by Washington canceled out the Hail Mary? Now we're back to even. It's like a zero sum game.

• 16:08Speaker 01

  I guess so, but they've been kind of crappy for a couple of weeks now, right? So I don't know, momentum wise, it might kill them further, but they have not been good at all.

• 16:19Bill Simmons?

  I'm going to read you three David Chang texts all in succession.

• 16:22Speaker 01

  Ah, let's hear it.

• 16:25Bill Simmons?

  Washington fan David Chang, I quit this team. Then McLaurin touchdown. I'm back, baby. I'm back. PAT, fuck this game.

• 16:37Bill Simmons?

  Three in a row, just like the span of a minute. That was a roller coaster ride of a, of a awful loss. Especially because everyone there is probably like, oh my God. Hail Mary a couple of weeks ago. Now this crazy McLaurin play, we're going to win in OT. Here we go.

• 16:55Speaker 01

  But Daniels isn't what he was, right? Like even when he takes off, he looks slower. I don't even know if it's ribs that with the original injury, but, or maybe it's just a long season. It's finally gotten to him.

• 17:06Bill Simmons?

  I think they can miss the playoffs because if you look at the five loss teams, they have five losses, so does Arizona, so is Seattle. You know, and there's one spot, well, Rams, Seattle, whatever, there's an NFC title team, but the NFC West title team, but then there's another spot for the wild card. So Washington had this, they were seven and two. Now it's like, holy shit. Um, Atlanta has five losses, Tampa, six losses. So I like the way Tampa looked today and Tampa's finally gotten their team back. Evans played today. Cornerbacks are back, so they can't be ruled out either.

• 17:42Speaker 01

  I don't like that you didn't bet them with me at five to one. We said it on like, when you say you're going to bet something with a friend, that's like worse than, and then you don't do it. It's like sleeping with his wife.

• 17:51Bill Simmons?

  Like, no, you know what I did? I was going to bet it with you and then I remembered that we weren't allowed to bet on the NFC South in a positive way. It was only shorting.

• 18:00Speaker 01

  No, I know, but plus 450, I love Tampa's schedule the rest of the way.

• 18:05Bill Simmons?

  You know what I'm noticing as always, I'm reading your facial cues. First 10 minutes of the pod. How many, how many bets did you have Washington in?

• 18:15Bill Simmons?

  Like all of them?

• 18:17Speaker 01

  Oh, not all of them, probably like 70, but not all of them.

• 18:21Bill Simmons?

  How many ties this Friday and Saturday games?

• 18:24Speaker 01

  Notre Dame, some UFC that I didn't even get to see that was in China. Yeah. I mean, I had it all, I had it all.

• 18:33Speaker 01

  And it's always worse when it's your team. It's like, ah, I can't even get weirdly excited for my team because the other teams.

• 18:39Bill Simmons?

  You make fun of me for that.

• 18:41Speaker 01

  I know.

• 18:43Bill Simmons?

  Welcome to Who's Delivering presented by Uber Eats, where we break down the NFL players who have delivered so far this season from household names to out of nowhere surprises. I think Saquon's the number one guy on this list. Cause it's not just that he improved their running back situation and just makes them more dangerous when you see all their playmakers now, those Smith, no. But um, the, the finishing ability of him, this team that you always felt like they would start out great and then they would kind of limp to the finish of, of these games. You never felt a hundred percent on them. And now, now it just feels like they can extend leads. They're a game behind Detroit. The Lions are like, we've won nine straight. How

• 19:25Bill Simmons?

  do we not have a bigger lead than this? So I would say, I would say Barkley number one for me. What do you have?

• 19:30Speaker 01

  I would say, well, this is down the list a little bit, although in terms of like next year for fantasy, Courtland Sutton, out of nowhere, 90 plus yards in three of his last five games, touchdowns all over the place. Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, maybe a top five hookup. And like which, which first round wide receiver that everybody swung and missed on, would you take over Courtland Sutton at this point? Not too many.

• 19:57Bill Simmons?

  All those $30 to $40, D.J. Moore, Jalen Waddle types. The other thing is he's made tough catches, like he'll make touchdown catches in the corner with two guys on him, getting the feed in. Yeah, he's good. They, the other one I'd want to mention for this is uh, Jackson Smith and the Jigba, the, the Seattle guys, 336 yards in the last three weeks, but feels like every time they need a first down, anytime it's third and eight, third and 11, third and seven, he's open somewhere. He's making a play and he's the best receiver on that team though. That was Who's Delivering presented by Uber Eats, where you can get the best deals on game day food all season long. Uber Eats, the official on demand delivery partner of the NFL. Order now, taking a break for the podcast.

• 20:45Bill Simmons?

  All right, quick break. This episode is brought to you by Fire TV. You ever sit down, ready to watch the game, only to search and scroll endlessly? If so, you need Fire TV. It shows you your live games from your favorite teams all in one place, right on the home screen. No more searching, just sit down and turn on Fire TV. Separate subscriptions may be required. Feature and content availability may vary. This episode is brought to you by Expedia. You know how at the end of the season, your team goes to Cancun? Sometimes earlier than expected? Sometimes after blowing a 3-1 series lead? But what if you went to Cancun? With Expedia, save up to 30% when you bundle and save. You can book the flight or the hotel now, then book the rest later. In all fairness, though, hopefully, your team doesn't go to Cancun. 1-2-3 Cancun. Or if they do, you go with them.

• 21:30Bill Simmons?

  Expedia, the one place you go to go places. Sign in to save, savings vary. So, speaking of JSN, Seahawks 16, Cardinals 6. This game killed me.

• 21:44Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think you had a lot riding on this one. I could tell by our texts.

• 21:48Bill Simmons?

  I like the Cardinals a lot. The game came down to two terrible Kyler Murray plays. That's really, I mean, Gino threw a pick in the end zone, but you factor that in when you're taking the Seahawks. You know he's gonna have one terrible pass.

• 22:00Speaker 01

  Right.

• 22:01Bill Simmons?

  Kyler had been playing pretty well and pretty responsibly. The game flips in the third quarter on this 4th and 1, where he rolls out, and then he has the guy. He just has him for a little 5-yard flick pass, and sails it right over his head, and it's a pick 6. And they were on the Seattle side, and it just, it was like at least a 10-point swing. That was one, and then the other one, he just missed McBride when they're driving in the fourth quarter, where if they had scored, they would have been able to get the ball potentially back with 4 minutes left. But here's where I landed, Sal.

• 22:35Bill Simmons?

  I don't know if I have, who's your career leader in? God damn it. Why the hell did I bet on that guy, guys? Cause I think Kyler's number one for me. He sucked me in nine different times where he's done this to me. And I always forget. It's like, it's like, uh, one of your friends who just has terrible taste in women and dates the same type of woman over and over again. And you're like, why'd you, why? Isn't that girl like Jenny from before? No, no, she's different. And it's like, ah, you're right.

• 23:04Speaker 01

  Same thing. Yeah.

• 23:05Bill Simmons?

  I just, I can't quit Kyler Murray just getting kicked in the teeth by him.

• 23:09Speaker 01

  Mine's Philip Rivers. Well, I mean, Phil Rivers or Matt Ryan. I'm not even sure they're, uh, different people, actually. I think they might be the same. But it was those two. Currently, there's just so many. I couldn't even name one, but you're right. He was three for 12. If he had little better of a game, they would have won. Yeah. Three for 12 and third downs. And still favored to win that division at plus 155. Still favored.

• 23:37Bill Simmons?

  16 pressures on him during the game by Seattle. Five sacks. Their defense. Raheem was calling on this on the Ringer Sunday pregame show today. He was saying how, uh, he thought Seattle's defense was coming on. They did get some guys back in the middle. The thing that shocked me, one of the reasons I really liked Arizona was I thought they'd be able to run up the middle and really run on them. And especially with Connor, physical type of team that Seattle's had a lot of trouble with this season. And they, Connor had eight yards.

• 24:06Speaker 01

  Right.

• 24:06Bill Simmons?

  They locked him down. Arizona scoring only six points is kind of crazy. That team has talent.

• 24:12Speaker 01

  But this was a must win. This is a must win for Seattle, right? This would have been five in a row at home and only the Cowboys do that. Like, so I, I, I'm not even sure. And it looks like Fandel's not sure either that Seattle is, uh, back to, um, you know, their Marshawn Lynch days, really. They're not even favored to win after taking this game.

• 24:32Bill Simmons?

  The only team I'm willing to cross off mentally, I wouldn't cross them off with Penn, but with maybe with pencil is I think the Niners are just a rap.

• 24:40Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah.

• 24:41Bill Simmons?

  I don't see it. I it's just, and we do this every year with it with at least one NFL team where we're just, we're past performance judging them and we don't want to see what we're watching now. They've lost too many guys. They're not the same team. And it wasn't even that they didn't have Purdy today. Their defense got annihilated. The Packers, the Packers ran it. Jacobs was the best guy in the field. They couldn't, they couldn't get their defense off the field. So even if Purdy had played or not, I don't think it would have changed the result. Do you?

• 25:07Speaker 01

  Too many injuries. When McCaffrey was hurt, right? They had like, you know, the good fill-ins, that was fine. They, they, you know, they kept their heads above water. And then like, all right, Ayuk is out. All right. It's all right. They still have, you know, oh, well, Debo Samuel hasn't done anything. What you want? Then you convince yourself Juwan Jennings is great. Now it's like, wow, they have really nothing offensively. If Kittle's going to play every other game. And but the one thing I thought today is like, didn't you feel like, I'm not betting the Packers because we haven't praised Kyle Shanahan in, in years. And this could be the game where he puts it together, a nice game plan for Brandon Allen. Nope, nope, nope. Not even close. It's over.

• 25:45Bill Simmons?

  So I had the Packers for million dollar picks. Then Purdy got hurt and the line went up. And I was like, this has all the makings of a stay away in real life. The line's up too high, Shannon. So I wasn't going to bet it. And then the Washington game happened. I'm like, all right, Broncos with, with the Packers.

• 26:06Speaker 01

  Good for you.

• 26:07Bill Simmons?

  Just throwing teams together to try to win money back. But um, I, I still like this Packers team. And I know even today, like, love wasn't great today. He was fine. But he missed, he got, he had Watson had, what do we make of Watson? Is he just like, I was texting our fantasy guys, Danny, Danny and Craig about it. I was just like, like, is this guy, has he killed more fantasy teams and seasons than any, he's not like, he's like a marquee receiver. But this past day, he's wide open. He's running like a gazelle. He's beating two guys. It's right in his hands and he just like muffs it, like the dude from the replacements. But anyway, that, that was Love's big, uh, big touchdown that he didn't get. Um, but I thought they looked pretty good.

• 26:53Speaker 01

  Yeah, they did. And, you know, they stomped out whatever offense the 49ers had, so it didn't matter. And they had good field position most of the way. But yeah, like they're, they're definitely a playoff team. They're definitely not as good as, I think we get accustomed and we'll talk about the Vikings, but you think teams like Green Bay and Minnesota should crush other teams like the Lions do every week and they don't until this week when Green Bay stepped up. But you know what? You did a smart thing because two, you, you just can't rely on bad quarterbacks. So it's a miracle that Levis won. It's a miracle that Cooper Rush won. And then you're like, all right, that's out of the way. This is, this is filling out nicely.

• 27:31Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 27:31Speaker 01

  I'm gonna go against Brandon Allen and who else did you go against? Minshew? That's a nice little couple.

• 27:35Bill Simmons?

  Denver was one of my favorite, uh, favorites all week. We had them in million dollar picks teased with, uh, Washington and Casey, two, two teams that almost lost. I should have just done the Broncos, uh, money line. I love the Broncos against the Raiders. So the, the Packers are somehow eight and three.

• 27:53Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 27:54Bill Simmons?

  Doesn't feel like an eight and three season, but that, it says that's their record. So they're gonna be no worse than a six seed. And I think you want to be the six seed this year because that means you're either playing the NFC South, Atlanta or Tampa, or you're playing, you know, Seattle, Arizona.

• 28:14Bill Simmons?

  Probably those two.

• 28:15Speaker 01

  The seven plays the two, the six plays the three.

• 28:18Bill Simmons?

  Plays the three. Three seeds gonna be either NFC West or NFC South.

• 28:22Speaker 01

  Yeah, that's fine.

• 28:23Bill Simmons?

  So they're right where they need to be. But then if you're the six seed, you also, oh, do they reseed after the, in the round two? They do.

• 28:30Speaker 01

  Yeah, this is.

• 28:31Bill Simmons?

  They have to play Detroit in round two.

• 28:33Speaker 01

  Yeah. Yeah.

• 28:35Bill Simmons?

  But no, this is. Maybe you want to be the five seed.

• 28:36Speaker 01

  Well, I, we're thinking about it. Is Minnesota a favorite at Atlanta? If, uh, if that's a first round match, I mean, I wish Minnesota, I wish I can get into Minnesota. I can't bet them any weeks and, um, they're a weird team. Like Donald goes for 330, but Jefferson only has 27. I don't know.

• 28:56Bill Simmons?

  He had seven at the end of the regulation.

• 28:58Speaker 01

  Yeah, that's right.

• 29:00Bill Simmons?

  Our seeds right now would be 2-7 Philly, Washington, 3-6 Seattle, Green Bay, 4-5 Atlanta, Minnesota.

• 29:07Speaker 01

  Right.

• 29:09Bill Simmons?

  And I think you're right. I think Minnesota is like a two and a half point favorite. If, we don't know what's gonna happen in the next five, six weeks. Seattle, Green Bay. See, you go through Green Bay's schedule the rest of the way.

• 29:21Bill Simmons?

  First of all, this Miami game they have Thursday night. Now, actually, a week ago, I wouldn't have said this was that fun of a game. Now I'm kind of excited for it.

• 29:29Speaker 01

  Lots of fun, yeah.

• 29:30Bill Simmons?

  Today, right? All of a sudden, that's a good game. And then they're at Detroit the next week, then they're at Seattle. So this could go from eight and three to eight and six in, you know, in, in two and a half weeks. And then they play at Minnesota in week 17 too. So, you know, they could be.

• 29:48Speaker 01

  I think you're right about the seven seed getting, having nine wins, which in that case, Green Bay doesn't have to worry about falling to seven. They'll get to 10.

• 29:56Bill Simmons?

  And plus, your team could potentially make it.

• 29:57Speaker 01

  Shut up.

• 29:58Bill Simmons?

  With Daniel, with Daniel Jones. Daniel Jones leads the Cowboys.

• 30:02Speaker 01

  Daniel Jones is Jerry Jones illegitimate son, and we learned about it on Thanksgiving.

• 30:06Bill Simmons?

  I can't believe it. How do they do that? Uh, speaking of the Seahawks, really good interception title battle going on right now. We have a three-way tie at 11 with Gino and Mahomes and Love. And then your guy Sam Darnold, your preseason pick, when we did our futures draft, you had Sam Darnold, what was it, like 10 to 1?

• 30:27Speaker 01

  I think so. Yeah. Yeah, somewhere around there.

• 30:29Bill Simmons?

  He's at 10. He's only one back.

• 30:31Speaker 01

  He's got 10?

• 30:32Bill Simmons?

  Somehow golf isn't in the top four. He had five picks in a game. It doesn't.

• 30:37Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 30:37Bill Simmons?

  Didn't, uh.

• 30:38Speaker 01

  I thought Caleb Williams would be up there too. It's a good, you know, just shaking off the rookie rust, but um, he had four weeks where he didn't have a touchdown or an interception.

• 30:48Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, he's, did he have one today? What did he have? He had a touchdown today?

• 30:54Speaker 01

  Uh, he had.

• 30:55Bill Simmons?

  Oh yeah, he had one to DJ Moore. Yeah. You know why I know that? Cause I benched DJ Moore.

• 31:01Bill Simmons?

  The uh, the Seahawks.

• 31:05Bill Simmons?

  They're at the Jets amid could Aaron Rodgers be cut rumors? If Aaron Rodgers got cut before December, before the Netflix thing came out. What would the odds have been on that in August? Aaron Rodgers will be cut, will be healthy, but cut before December. 100 to 1, 50 to 1? What would you have said?

• 31:26Speaker 01

  No, he's a basket case. Five to one. Of course that's a pop. Yeah, why not? Yeah. Or cut, I, I, I'd feel he walked away from the, from the game. That's what I would think would happen, but um, I said enough about him, but I don't think they're um, planning it around any Netflix release at this point. Yeah, he's got, he's gonna have the phantom injury, just like we all said, and that'll be that.

• 31:51Bill Simmons?

  It's probably gonna be this week against Seattle. It's a home Jets game. So that's Seattle's first game.

• 31:57Speaker 01

  Geno Smith, back, back at the old team. Yep.

• 31:59Bill Simmons?

  Then they're at Arizona rematch. Home Green Bay, home Minnesota, at Chicago, at the Rams.

• 32:06Bill Simmons?

  So we had, I went back and looked at all the future bets I made. And I think I had the most bets on Seattle, which I might've made a mistake and accidentally bet on their over twice.

• 32:16Speaker 01

  Oh, really?

• 32:17Bill Simmons?

  But I had them most on their over to make the playoffs and to win the division. I had the trifecta and I thought it was dead two weeks ago.

• 32:25Speaker 01

  I think that's the only, that's the only division that's going to come down to week 18. I mean, I don't see how it doesn't.

• 32:31Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 32:31Speaker 01

  At this point, I mean, these five and five teams, six and five, they're going to split everything the rest of the way. And it's going to be for positioning final week in January.

• 32:40Bill Simmons?

  All right. So our Sunday night NBC week 18 game.

• 32:46Speaker 01

  What do they have?

• 32:47Bill Simmons?

  Seattle at the Rams or Arizona against San Francisco.

• 32:53Bill Simmons?

  So it could be Seattle at the Rams. That feels very Sunday nightish.

• 32:55Speaker 01

  You gotta go with the quarterbacks. Yeah. I mean, if Purdy's still upright, then maybe it has a chance, but I think you're right. I think Seattle.

• 33:02Bill Simmons?

  If the Rams are a game back.

• 33:05Speaker 01

  Yeah. It all depends, right? They have to be playing for something.

• 33:11Bill Simmons?

  So the Niners game, the Niners lose by 28. McCaffrey's 11 for 31, 37 yards receiving.

• 33:21Bill Simmons?

  And has had one of the most disappointing fantasy seasons in a while, considering he came back. But there was some, Green Bay, Dobbs got a concussion. Probably no Alexander and they're playing Thursday on Thanksgiving. So we'll see what happens with that.

• 33:35Speaker 01

  Yeah, but the Dolphins have a huge handicap in that they're going to be playing in something less than 72 degrees.

• 33:43Bill Simmons?

  Oh, it's going to be freezing. Yeah. I can't wait to talk about that.

• 33:45Speaker 01

  It's gonna be a fun one.

• 33:46Bill Simmons?

  And then San Francisco's at Buffalo, which could be, they're five and six. That could be it.

• 33:50Speaker 01

  It's it anyway. Look at the rest of, even beyond that week. It's really bad.

• 33:56Bill Simmons?

  You mentioned Vikings, Bears.

• 34:01Bill Simmons?

  So they play, the Vikings play Detroit in week 18.

• 34:08Bill Simmons?

  And they're only a game back.

• 34:11Bill Simmons?

  It's not, it's not inconceivable that that game would decide the one seed, but I watched these Vikings games and it, I felt this way for a month. I'm sure you have too, where you're like, what? How are they doing this?

• 34:23Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 34:24Bill Simmons?

  Today, it looked like they blew the game because they didn't get the onside kick. But then Darnold was awesome in OT and that was why they won. All of a sudden, Darnold like really heated up and he's done this a couple of times. I can't tell. Do you think he's sucking us in like Flacco did last year or this is more real?

• 34:40Speaker 01

  He might a little bit, but you know, just like you said, you were surprised that the Packers had what eight wins? I can't believe this team has nine wins. They struggle with all the teams at the Lions and their game behind the Lions. Like you said, they struggled with all the teams that the Lions just obliterated, right? The Titans, the Jaguars, it all came down to like, you know, this was a fourth quarter game. And, uh, and, and even this one, like the Bears, I had the Bears plus three and a half. I know you don't like that, but I did have it at three and a half. And, uh, it, it, it came, it came down to the kick. I mean, you have to take away three points on the bear spread every week because of special teams. It's so bad. I've never seen a punt returner wave everybody off and then get hit by the punt himself.

• 35:25Speaker 01

  Turn it over.

• 35:26Bill Simmons?

  They are, they really, the montage of them at the end of the season would be pretty great. Yeah. So on our Sunday pregame show, your wise wager.

• 35:33Speaker 01

  Right.

• 35:34Bill Simmons?

  You're 10 and two now. You had the Bears three and a half. It was three and a half at 7:57. We start the show at eight Pacific time and at eight 10, the line went to three. I don't know if you moved the line or what happened.

• 35:46Speaker 01

  I think I did move it and then.

• 35:48Bill Simmons?

  Take credit for it.

• 35:49Speaker 01

  I'm going to say I, I'm announced three and a half and then you text like this spread is three everywhere. The spread Nazi, Bill Simmons weighs in. So I was like, what are we going to do? We have graphics everywhere. This is TV.

• 36:02Bill Simmons?

  Spread Nazi.

• 36:02Speaker 01

  I don't know. You know, you make music documentaries. You don't understand sports where you have to put the graphics on as they're going, but that's how it is. So.

• 36:10Bill Simmons?

  Hey, if you said it was three, three and a half at 7:57.

• 36:13Speaker 01

  Thank you.

• 36:14Bill Simmons?

  That's when you guys were starting the show. I'm just saying it was a pretty lucky break.

• 36:17Speaker 01

  Seven bet. That's all. That's what I call it.

• 36:18Bill Simmons?

  Pretty lucky break. So Minnesota.

• 36:22Bill Simmons?

  They played three games in a row at Jacksonville, at Tennessee, at Chicago.

• 36:26Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 36:27Bill Simmons?

  And they won those games by five, by 10 and by three in overtime. In week nine, they beat the Colts 21 13. In week five, they beat the Jets 23 17. And in week four, they won at Green Bay 31 to 29. They have not had a blowout win since week three when they beat Houston. Their next three games are at home. Arizona, Atlanta, Chicago on a Monday night, all super winnable. At Seattle, home Green Bay, at Detroit to finish it.

• 37:00Bill Simmons?

  I don't know what their final record is gonna be. It could be like 14 and three.

• 37:04Speaker 01

  Yeah, I know. Then they have all these one score wins and I guess you can compare it to two years ago with Cousins when they had all the one score wins. But they, they won the division and they were a high seed right that year. This, this time they're gonna have to do it on the road. So are they gonna, when are they gonna surprise us? When they blow it or when they just march all the way to the Super Bowl?

• 37:24Bill Simmons?

  I think this is a better team than that Cousins team.

• 37:26Speaker 01

  Really?

• 37:27Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, cuz the Aaron Jones piece, they have two good receivers. Hockinson finally came back. I feel like they can move the ball when they actually need to. And Darnold, I, I wanna not believe it, but he's, you know, we've seen guys. The Gino Baker, like there's a track record for this now. Worst case scenario, probably Case Keenum.

• 37:50Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 37:51Bill Simmons?

  Who's also on Minnesota.

• 37:52Speaker 01

  I just can't explain how Jefferson has 20. He didn't get hurt, did he? My, maybe I missed that he sat out.

• 37:58Bill Simmons?

  Well, there was one play in the, in the second half. He had like a, like a 60 yard touchdown. He tiptoed down the line and scored and got called back.

• 38:07Speaker 01

  Called back, alright.

• 38:08Bill Simmons?

  So I think that was, that was his big one.

• 38:13Bill Simmons?

  Okay, Chiefs Panthers is another one we have to talk about.

• 38:18Bill Simmons?

  Chiefs 37 Panthers 27. This was the other sweated out part of the tease that was actually

• 38:23Speaker 01

  30 27. Yeah.

• 38:24Bill Simmons?

  Hit it. Yeah. Actually hitting as the Washington game was.

• 38:28Speaker 01

  Right.

• 38:29Bill Simmons?

  So I have two things on this one. One is that KC is just Milton Burling it every week now.

• 38:37Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 38:38Bill Simmons?

  They're barely pulling it out of the zipper in these games. And then it's like, oh, all right. You guys tied and got the two point. Okay. Now Mahomes is like flying around. They're throwing to Kelsey. But it just feels like they're trying to get to January when you watch them. With that said, Hopkins got going a little today. Worthy. Apparently they have Hollywood Brown coming back. Kelsey, this Gray always seems to make one big catch. They can run the ball. Their offense looks like it's in better, way better shape than it was a year ago. Do you, are you any concerned with them yet? Cause I don't have any.

• 39:13Speaker 01

  Well, it's interesting because I'm both unimpressed with KC and, but I'm also like you, I won't say Milton Burl. I mean, we've this, we have plenty of dick jokes in this podcast, but I'll use a more PG 13. I think it's more, I think they were like, they were like playing, it's like when you play horse with your seven year old son and you spot him, H O R S.

• 39:33Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 39:34Speaker 01

  But then you don't want him to win. So you try, all right, I'm going to start doing lefty hook shots and everything because you can't ultimately let him win. I think that's what they did. But also what the, what's going on? Like they had, like Mahomes had like 180 yards passing at, at half. They had 10 points in the first quarter. It looked like they could score 50. Can they just get back to that after a loss? Do they have to make you sweat it out like this?

• 39:57Bill Simmons?

  Mahomes, we have, one of the futures bets that we did when we did our future draft was Mahomes to get to 4,000 yards.

• 40:06Speaker 01

  Oh, he's not.

• 40:06Bill Simmons?

  It's going to be, no, it's going to be tight. I think he can do it. He's, he's got to average like, uh, he's close to, he's over 2,400 right now. So he's got to average, I don't know, like two, 260 a game the rest of the way. But I can't believe I'm sweating that out. Mahomes is going to play every, every games, 17 games and not throw for 4,000 yards.

• 40:26Speaker 01

  They're going to, they're going to go 15 and two, and he's going to be stuck at like 3,700 yards. Yeah. But you know, until Noah Gray starts dating Olivia Rodrigo, I don't think the world is going to be right.

• 40:38Bill Simmons?

  That'd be great. Or Sabrina Carpenter.

• 40:41Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 40:41Bill Simmons?

  Um, that's one thing. The other thing is I thought Bryce Young was good in this game.

• 40:45Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 40:46Bill Simmons?

  Especially in the second half, I, I thought there were plays where they, apparently he was 11 for 13 on blitzes. That was the stat I saw on the internets, but there were plays where it just, you kept waiting for him to make a terrible Bryce Young pass or a tip play or, but he had a lot of poise. He delivered on some third and longs.

• 41:05Speaker 01

  Yeah, some gutty third down conversions. Yep.

• 41:07Bill Simmons?

  Moved around, bought himself time. I don't remember a situation like this. We've seen a guy lose his mojo on a team where it seemed like it was over and then he went to another team. But not in the same season with the same team is pretty unusual.

• 41:24Speaker 01

  It is bizarre. I think we both thought Andy Dalton, this was his team for the rest of the year. Right? And then, um, I, I don't know. It's not the same as what's going on with Richardson, although I don't even know what's going on with Richardson. Cause they brought him back, right?

• 41:37Bill Simmons?

  He was bad. He was bad there.

• 41:39Speaker 01

  Not good.

• 41:39Bill Simmons?

  Tough matchup.

• 41:40Speaker 01

  Yeah. Um, so no, I'm impressed with him. I mean, as long as he doesn't embarrass himself and he's not even close to doing that. He's putting up points and staying close with Kansas City. Put them in the seven seed. They're getting it before the Cowboys.

• 41:53Bill Simmons?

  Carolina.

• 41:53Speaker 01

  There we go.

• 41:55Bill Simmons?

  The weird thing about this, so Dalton has the job and they're playing okay with him and it looks like he's, and they're talking about, can you trade for Bryce Young? Are they going to waive him after that? Like what's?

• 42:07Speaker 01

  Trade him to the Giants before you go to overseas. Yeah.

• 42:11Bill Simmons?

  Dalton gets in a car accident.

• 42:12Speaker 01

  Right.

• 42:13Bill Simmons?

  And he's with his wife and all three of his kids. And they're driving home from the school pickup and they get in an accident and it's like, they're banged up, but nothing like too bad. Like they weren't like airlifted to the hospital or anything, but it was like bad enough that he didn't play that week. Right? So young, they have to, they were like, what else are you, I guess we gotta start Bryce Young, this guy who's confidence we just murdered. So the only reason he gets his job back is this bizarre, you know, fender bender with Andy Dalton leaving his kid's school. And now he's going to have the job the rest of the way.

• 42:45Speaker 01

  I see what you're saying. You, you think Bryce Young should be brought in for questioning? Interesting. I hadn't even considered that. Wow.

• 42:52Bill Simmons?

  That's good. You said it. I didn't. No, it was just, I, I can't remember a weirder just saga than this.

• 42:58Speaker 01

  It is strange.

• 42:59Bill Simmons?

  Has it gets in a fender bender like he's like us driving or, you know, like you picking up Harrison.

• 43:05Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 43:05Bill Simmons?

  And now he doesn't have his job anymore. That like, not since Tyrod Taylor getting stabbed by the team doctor. Has there been a weirder way for a guy to lose the job?

• 43:14Speaker 01

  That that franchise, we should pay more attention between that owner and everything else that goes on with that franchise. They're right up there. They're not like Clippers. They're not Donald Sterling Clippers yet, but they're they get there.

• 43:26Bill Simmons?

  We'll take one more break for the podcast.

• 43:31Bill Simmons?

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• 44:13Bill Simmons?

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• 44:50Bill Simmons?

  Couple more games I wanted to hit. Titans Texans. Titans beat the Texans. Texans have a, I think lockdown, the Shaky's game now. I don't think there's any stopping them. It's a wrap now. They're seven and five. Everybody in the AFC wants to play them in round one. They're really singularly unimpressive. Will Levis, who even when he's playing well, still has to throw a pick six to the other team. Like he can't help himself and fumble and does that, but and somehow Tennessee wins anyway. You guys talked about this game a lot in the Sunday pregame.

• 45:25Speaker 01

  We all had them.

• 45:26Bill Simmons?

  It had a whiff to it.

• 45:27Speaker 01

  Yeah, we, well, first of all, there's always one AFC South game that where you're like, no, the first place team has to beat the fourth place team. And it, and it doesn't hold true. Secondly, the Titans, like even though they had no business winning this, their defense is really good. Like by every metric, they're either first, second or third in passing, red zone. Take a look at rushing, they held the Texans to 260 yards and 40 yards rushing. I don't know what's, what's what with CJ Stroud. I hope that he hasn't been figured out because everyone's like, oh, there's enough tape on him. I'm like, no, I don't want to hear that. But three touchdowns, five interceptions in the last five games. It'll be enough to win the AFC South, but my God, you're right. This is definitely the team you want to play.

• 46:11Bill Simmons?

  Doesn't ever look like he has a ton of time.

• 46:14Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 46:15Bill Simmons?

  When you watch, it always seems like he's backpedaling or he's under duress and just.

• 46:19Speaker 01

  Times bring it though. Yeah. He wasn't under duress against my Cowboys. Yeah.

• 46:24Bill Simmons?

  They missed the 28 yard field goal to tie the game.

• 46:27Speaker 01

  Right.

• 46:28Bill Simmons?

  And then they did have the ball back near the end and he pulled a Norlovsky and they end up getting a safety. So.

• 46:33Speaker 01

  That was.

• 46:34Bill Simmons?

  You know, they hung around, they give up an 80 yard touchdown on the fucking tight end. When does that ever happen? It was a weird one, but a classic AFC South game. Then Broncos Raiders. The Vegas that now has seven straight losses.

• 46:52Bill Simmons?

  And Bobby Bacala, Antonio Pierce was playing with his trains on the sidelines again, as his team was trying to cover. And somehow didn't Broncos plus or minus five and a half Raiders guy gets tackled on the one yard line with like 12 seconds left. They somehow don't score.

• 47:07Speaker 01

  First and goal, 20 seconds left. What's the, what's the odds of the Raiders covering, do you think? They just need, they need to score first and goal, 20 seconds left. No timeout. So they're gonna pass, they're gonna pass and maybe run.

• 47:19Bill Simmons?

  QB sneak, you're probably getting it. But the funnier thing was that they're just running like a non-two-minute drill down 10 where everyone else usually kicks the field goal when it gets to like the 30s. So you have more time. They're taking their time, going down, trying to make plays. It honestly looked like he was just trying to cover. Like he had given up on winning the game.

• 47:41Speaker 01

  The coach was, but Desmond Ritter's like, you know what? I'm not doing this. I'm not for the moral victories. I'll throw the fade out of the end zone and then I'm going to get sacked and that'll be that. I'm not even going to rush to the odds, rush to the line.

• 47:53Bill Simmons?

  So their three quarterbacks, Minshew, O'Connell, and the Riddler, Desmond Ritter, the big three. 11 touchdowns, 11 picks. Could we have a quarterback who have more picks than touchdowns this season?

• 48:08Speaker 01

  Oh, that'll be fun.

• 48:10Bill Simmons?

  That's like what we grew up with.

• 48:11Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 48:12Bill Simmons?

  We're like Richard Todd would have 16 touchdowns and 27 interceptions.

• 48:16Speaker 01

  Yeah, that's right. Can I read you an unbelievable stat?

• 48:20Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 48:20Speaker 01

  The Raiders have lost eight straight to rookie quarterbacks. So they are now.

• 48:26Bill Simmons?

  That's an actual stat?

• 48:27Speaker 01

  That's a stat. Yeah. That's from ESPN. So they're like the enhancement talent. They're like the S.D. Jones now. Like if you want to get, if you want to make Bo Nix look good, if you want to make Bo Nickel look good, like in the UFC, you'll put them up against like what would be the Raiders of the UFC.

• 48:44Bill Simmons?

  I think they're more Frankie Williams.

• 48:46Speaker 01

  Frankie Williams. Got his ass kicked on Piper's bit.

• 48:50Bill Simmons?

  He really, Piper really destroyed that guy.

• 48:51Speaker 01

  Top three moment of me growing up sadly.

• 48:54Bill Simmons?

  So Vegas has lost seven straight. Pretty much guaranteed a top three. This was in the ESPN, the summary of the game. It said, what we learned about the QB today. This is an actual paragraph. While Gardner Minshew threw a game turning third quarter interception parentheses, his 10th, and Aiden O'Connell, broken right thumb, is now eligible to come off IR. A short week means Minshew probably still starts at Kansas City unless his left shoulder injury is worse than expected. Desmond Ritter, anyone? Question mark. He was strip sacked upon entering the game, denying the Raiders their best attempt to tie the game. This is a fucking shit show. It's one thing to have bad quarterbacks. Why can't these guys sign Daniel Jones? I guess they don't want to.

• 49:38Bill Simmons?

  They want to be bad, right?

• 49:40Speaker 01

  That write up is, uh, it's like, uh, like a game changer for Little League. Like tries to be nice when they're like, yeah, they made seven errors, but, uh, you know, a mighty comeback and they only ended up losing.

• 49:51Bill Simmons?

  Bobby had a couple of strong swings.

• 49:53Speaker 01

  He picked his nose. He ate some boogers, but then botched it in the bottom of the seventh. Yeah, I, I don't know. Yeah, of course they want to lose, but they, they have so much to do this. I don't know what the, I don't think they'll ever be good. Why do I always bet that? Like, why the fuck am I still on this team all the time?

• 50:10Bill Simmons?

  You had them to make the playoffs or just over?

• 50:14Speaker 01

  To make the playoffs. I'm an idiot. That was my big swing and miss. I have like 10 swings and misses. Yeah.

• 50:22Bill Simmons?

  Kyle turned the Tik Tok camera on.

• 50:24Speaker 01

  Uh oh.

• 50:25Bill Simmons?

  So Vegas is going to have a top three pick.

• 50:28Speaker 01

  Mm hmm.

• 50:29Bill Simmons?

  I would assume their coach Bobby Bakula is not, not gonna, he's going to go back to be an Uncle Junior's driver after the season. They're going to need a coach. They need a quarterback. This has Shador Sanders and Deion Sanders written all over it.

• 50:43Speaker 01

  Do it.

• 50:43Bill Simmons?

  Like all over it. And by the way, I'm here for it.

• 50:46Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 50:47Bill Simmons?

  The Vegas Raiders with Deion and his son, like I'm, I'm in. That would be great. The merch would be the number one merch, the Sanders, like Hard Knocks 10 year contract. Like let's, let's go. What are we waiting for?

• 50:59Speaker 01

  I'm with you. Mark Davis is nothing like, you know, people are saying Shador and Deion go to Dallas. Not going to happen because Jerry, Mark Davis is nothing like Jerry. First of all, his hair is beautiful. It really is impeccable. Secondly, he doesn't care who gets the spotlight. He just wants to be Raiders. That is the perfect, perfect move for them. Shador and Deion.

• 51:20Speaker 01

  Do it.

• 51:20Bill Simmons?

  People, people like Shador too.

• 51:23Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 51:24Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they, they, they talk about tough, he's athletic and like he's a leader, brings a bunch of stuff to the table.

• 51:32Bill Simmons?

  Broncos, seven and five. Sean Payton fist pumps at the end of the game. They have Cleveland next week, bye week, Indy, at the Chargers, at Cincy. And then week 18, home KC in a game where I assume KC will have the one seed locked up and whoever their backup, who's their backup quarterback this year?

• 51:55Speaker 01

  The Chiefs?

• 51:57Bill Simmons?

  Whoever it is, he's playing in week 18.

• 52:00Speaker 01

  Yeah. Why can't I think?

• 52:02Bill Simmons?

  Denver looks like a 10 win team. It's amazing. We talked about this in the over under pod before the year and it was, you know, they had a lot of the, lot of the makings of a possible like sneaky seven seed, but I, the defense looks so bad on paper. It didn't make sense, but.

• 52:18Speaker 01

  Carson Wentz, by the way, for, for the Chiefs, but I'm with you.

• 52:21Bill Simmons?

  The Red Rocket.

• 52:22Speaker 01

  Yeah. So he'll, he'll get one more shot at, at gold, but I, I don't know. What do you think they'll lie, what their odds are to make the playoffs? I was looking at this before we hopped on Denver.

• 52:36Bill Simmons?

  Probably like minus 130.

• 52:38Speaker 01

  Oh, wow. You're good. It's minus 154. I thought it'd be much higher. Like, aren't they going to be, to me, like they're good. They're decent. They can move the ball. They play defense.

• 52:48Bill Simmons?

  Well coached.

• 52:48Speaker 01

  As far as like, uh, they're well coached. They're, they're not going to embarrass you on national television, right? They have a Monday night game coming up. It's like, uh, the networks are happy to have them. I think this is a good team. They're not going to get to 10. I have to reorder my, my, I'm not sure. Like who's going to beat them out at this point? Not the Colts.

• 53:07Bill Simmons?

  And I feel like I've watched a lot of Broncos because we get these late games on the West Coast and there's only like three or four games. So I feel like I've seen like a lot of their games. And, uh, first of all, Knicks has gotten. He's just night and day from that Jets game when he threw for 60 yards. It's like a different human being, but it's kind of a badass. Like he talks shit. They had that, they ran a replay today and he's just screaming at the defensive line of their team. Now, granted, he's like a 30 year old rookie. He's like Scott Bakula, necessary roughness, but, um, but he's, I, the way he carries himself, he doesn't carry himself like a rookie. He's gotten better week to week. I think he has real chemistry with Courtland Sutton, which you mentioned earlier.

• 53:49Bill Simmons?

  And I don't know, I could see them in the playoffs and I, I wouldn't, if they're in the playoffs, I wouldn't be like, oh, I can't wait to bet against Denver. Like I think they're pretty frisky.

• 53:58Speaker 01

  Well, this is a question. If you put the Chargers in, right? You're going to put, who else are you going to put in? You're going to put the Steelers in.

• 54:06Bill Simmons?

  It's Chargers, Ravens or Steelers and then Broncos.

• 54:10Speaker 01

  They have to beat out the Bengals, but the Bengals are like plus 350. They play the Bengals, so that's going to be an interesting.

• 54:15Bill Simmons?

  Another team.

• 54:16Speaker 01

  Who else?

• 54:17Bill Simmons?

  The Dolphins.

• 54:17Speaker 01

  I'd say the Colts. Uh, yeah, I think they go away this week, but we'll see.

• 54:22Bill Simmons?

  If they, I, you know, I agree because it's cold weather, but if they can somehow pull off this Green Bay game.

• 54:28Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 54:28Bill Simmons?

  It gets pretty, it's pretty fun for them because they'd have the Jets at home, which is suddenly a way easier game than it looked like. When we had this written down before the season, when we were talking about their over under, this looked like a death stretch. Where it went at Green Bay, home Jets, at Houston, home San Francisco, at Cleveland, at the Jets. It was like, oh my God, it's brutal. Now it's like both those Jets games, San Francisco, like I, at Cleveland, none of those games are hard, except this Green Bay game.

• 55:00Speaker 01

  Right.

• 55:00Bill Simmons?

  So, you know, all they have to do is get to 10 and seven.

• 55:04Speaker 01

  I get, I mean, much like the Vikings, like I still don't know how they're not doing this with their best player. Like Jefferson can't, hasn't been lighting it up and neither has Tyree Kill. I mean, you got this John who's Smith, who's, they should just trade paychecks at this point. Like, uh, or maybe Tyree Hilton needs to get arrested every week because he doesn't show up for these games. And I don't know, I just, uh, I think they'll be stuck at eight or nine wins, but like this Denver team.

• 55:29Bill Simmons?

  We'll see if they lose this Green Bay game, it's going to be a lot. They'll basically have to sweep the rest of the way, I think.

• 55:34Speaker 01

  Right.

• 55:34Bill Simmons?

  Cause they would be five and seven at that point. Uh, the good news for them is in the pregame show for NBC today. Jason Garrett was raving about Tua, who was really good today. And compared him to Magic Johnson.

• 55:48Speaker 01

  Right.

• 55:49Bill Simmons?

  The way he was spreading the ball around. And at that point, I don't know if NBC has this person on staff, but there probably should be like one of those giant things that cops use to taze suspects. That's where somebody should just run on the set and just taze Garrett.

• 56:06Speaker 01

  Yeah, well, but in his defense.

• 56:07Bill Simmons?

  And he would still be smiling if he was electrocuted by a taser.

• 56:10Speaker 01

  He'd be like, ah, that's great. Yeah, he's, he's, um, in his defense, he's an idiot. I think that's all you can really say.

• 56:18Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I forgot.

• 56:19Speaker 01

  There's that, I mean, there are like four taser moments for Jason Garrett. And like when they're going over the highlights and Baker Mayfield's making fun of, uh, making fun of Tommy DeVito and doing the hat thing. And Jason Garrett's like, how about a little helping a gaba ghoul? And then he's laughing, laughing like a schoolgirl. And I'm like, not that I'm offended because he made an Italian reference. I'm offended that he's the worst head coach of our generation and he's talking at me through my television set. That's why I can't stand it.

• 56:47Bill Simmons?

  Or I think he'd be offended that he said gaba ghoul correctly and I didn't when I was half Italian.

• 56:52Speaker 01

  Yeah, I know. I like you and you are half Italian. So that's a difference.

• 56:56Bill Simmons?

  Well, Miami looked good today, but they were playing the Patriots. I thought the Patriots were a live dog today, that the game would be close and that they'd be able to move the ball up and down the field. And nephew Kyle watched the game with me and can attest, I was about as locked in as I've been in a while in a Pats game.

• 57:12Speaker 01

  Well, they did move the ball down the field, maybe not up and down.

• 57:15Bill Simmons?

  It was down the field, the other direction. They had nine first half penalties.

• 57:22Speaker 01

  Right.

• 57:22Bill Simmons?

  But the really special thing is six of the nine were pre snap. Which is basically like, we don't practice. You have pre snap, it's like, that's, that's what, like, if you're a high school team and the ninth grade left tackle keeps forgetting that it's on two instead of on three. It's six pre snap penalties. They got sacked, May got sacked four times, but was running for his life half the game. Had two turnovers, one was May's fault, one wasn't, it got tipped. Mayo loses a challenge. Did you see this?

• 57:54Speaker 01

  Yes. I know what you're gonna say.

• 57:57Bill Simmons?

  They throw to, for, for the viewers, they throw to Waddle for 19 for a first down.

• 58:04Bill Simmons?

  And there's also a pass interference on the play. So it's a first down either way for the Dolphins, but it looks like the ball hits the ground.

• 58:12Bill Simmons?

  Mayo says, fuck it and challenges the catch to, I guess, save 14 yards.

• 58:17Speaker 01

  Right.

• 58:17Bill Simmons?

  And then they, they said, no, it was a catch. So we lost our challenge on a play that would have been a first down anyway for Dolphins. Like you see stuff every week with this team that you just never see before. We, we had the same left tackle had three pre snap penalties in the, in the first half.

• 58:37Speaker 01

  He won't, he, he, this coach is really something else. Like I was like, ah, you're, oh, you're exaggerating, but you saw his like comment in the post game presser. They, he said, hell, there's not much I could do. Once they cross the white line. It's like, oh my God, you're not supposed to say that. You definitely didn't say that in the interview. Like, of course there's both, just like you said, they should be coached better. And then they wouldn't be having these pre snap penalties. Like, well, there's not much, that's like you and I saying, well, why would we do a podcast? Let the players do the talking and then we'll see what the records are at the end of the year. What the hell is he doing?

• 59:10Bill Simmons?

  This team, it's so frustrating because I really think Drake's good. And they'll start every, every drive with, yeah, run into the middle for one, or there'll be a false start. Now it's first and 15, or it's a run play where the guy gets tackled four yards behind. Like I've never seen a team have more second and 14, second and nine, second and 15, second and 12. And just over and over again, they're behind the eight ball. And then when they actually make a play, if they're driving, Drake throws a really nice play, Ramadja picks a tackle, they get 20. Nope, that's coming back, holding penalty. Just this team that he's saddled on with the worst coaches and the worst offensive line and wide receivers that can barely catch the ball. And like part of me is wondering

• 59:54Bill Simmons?

  like, are we even, I, I've now reverted back to, should we just sit him for the rest of the season? So he doesn't get hurt because it's this bad. But then you watch him and I had these series like he did with the Rams last week where it's like, he might win this game by himself. So I don't know what to think.

• 1:00:10Speaker 01

  Well, you, I, I, you should think that you're going to bet them over four and a half wins because you know, they're going to surprise you a couple more times. They'll reel you in and you'll lose like nine draft picks. Yeah.

• 1:00:20Bill Simmons?

  This game today that the, on both sides. You know, it just shouldn't be like last week, they're just blitzing Stafford over and over again. It's like rule number one, don't put Stafford, they're just like doing it the whole game.

• 1:00:31Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:00:33Bill Simmons?

  Today, they just seem completely blindsided by the disc jockey. Disc jockey was like, he was really spinning the tune today. He was like, alright, yeah.

• 1:00:43Speaker 01

  Miami sound machine, you got it going. Yeah, I, I don't know, like, look, there, there are some coaches who like just pull some bullshit and then they get away with it. Like Sirianni.

• 1:00:53Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:00:54Speaker 01

  I don't know, like Barkley's so good, they're gonna win regardless of his nonsense. Like that, that crazy, not, not to take it back to that game, but when he was like-

• 1:01:03Bill Simmons?

  End of the first half?

• 1:01:04Speaker 01

  Yeah, no, when that whole thing with the, with third and 13 or, or fourth and three.

• 1:01:09Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:01:10Speaker 01

  And then they bring them-

• 1:01:10Bill Simmons?

  Send them back to third and 13.

• 1:01:11Speaker 01

  It's like, no, no, no, no, no.

• 1:01:12Bill Simmons?

  But it worked.

• 1:01:13Speaker 01

  No, no, you already said, no, you can't come to Thanksgiving, our table's full, you already RSVP'd down.

• 1:01:18Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:01:18Speaker 01

  Like, just what are you doing? But, yeah, but he's gonna survive that, this guy Jared Mayo. Care. The talent's just not there.

• 1:01:25Bill Simmons?

  See, I don't think, I just don't think Kraft's gonna pay for another coach. I think we're stuck with this guy next year. The thing that, the thing I hate the most is he was such a tough player. Yeah, he was a middle linebacker, he was just a badass. And then as a coach, he just, I tweeted today, I was joking that his book would be called Scared Football. He's just scared the whole game. It's like, oh, it's fourth and one, we better punt. You know, and even if they're gonna like go for it on a play, it's the most predictable play ever when they run some sort of trick play. It's the worst trick play you've ever seen. It just, it looks like they don't practice.

• 1:01:59Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:01:59Bill Simmons?

  And I, I think it's gonna be, I said this a few weeks ago and I'm gonna predict it again. I think it's gonna be a really hard week for him in Boston, cause they, they were so poorly prepared and coached in the game today. I don't, I don't know how that's not the preeminent talking point of the week.

• 1:02:14Speaker 01

  These guys, just because they're good at something, doesn't mean, right? Like, look at Jason Garrett, horrible, horrible coach. And then he goes on and is even a worse pregame commentator. So how do you even, how could you even tell what's gonna be?

• 1:02:28Bill Simmons?

  Well, the problem is, if they're not gonna fire him this year, and then he's, it's not gonna really get better next year. Maybe they can change offensive coordinator. Like, let's say they get Dayball. Let's say they sign T. Higgins. They just do those two things. Dayball's the OC. T. Higgins is the wide receiver one. They get a left tackle in the draft. Like, they're just noticeably better in a couple ways. It's still not gonna stop how unprepared the team looks. That's what they, and he can, you can't blame the players on that when you could just have guys jumping off sides left and right. They had one play, I think it was Hooper or Henry, one of the tight ends. They had two penalties on the same play. So Dolphins like, oh, we get to choose.

• 1:03:08Bill Simmons?

  But one of them was, the tight end was, he was just a foot, like, his whole foot was over the line of scrimmage.

• 1:03:16Bill Simmons?

  He was just, he was basically like where the Dolphins were. It's like, how, how are you lined up this way? You guys are professional football players. Miami didn't have a penalty for two hours.

• 1:03:25Speaker 01

  I think you're wrong. Well, I don't know if you're wrong, because there's no way to, there's no precedent to tell if Kraft will fire a coach, because you had an unfireable coach for so long, right? But I don't think he's gonna be like Jerry Jones, where he's just gonna take shots every week, and everyone's gonna be like, what is wrong with this guy? And he's just gonna sit there and take it. He's used to winning. So he'll make a change.

• 1:03:45Bill Simmons?

  Vrabel was a really good coach who had real ties to the Pats. And everybody always thought he would follow Belichick. And he's sitting there right now. And I think the fear is, you don't get Vrabel, you do another year with Mayo, it's just as bad next year. And now Vrabel will get one of his other jobs. He's, there's like, gonna be eight jobs open. He'll get one of them. And then you've missed out on this Vrabel chance. The only other thing I had before we get to guess the lines is Bucks-Giants.

• 1:04:13Bill Simmons?

  When you mentioned Tampa trying to steal the NFC South, here's the thing against it. Atlanta beat Tampa twice already and they have a one game lead. So they're basically two ahead of Tampa. Think about it. So.

• 1:04:26Speaker 01

  But look at that. Can't they go five and one?

• 1:04:29Bill Simmons?

  Do you want to do the schedule?

• 1:04:30Speaker 01

  Do it.

• 1:04:30Bill Simmons?

  Tampa's at Carolina, home Vegas, at the Chargers, at Dallas, home Carolina, home New Orleans.

• 1:04:37Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:04:38Bill Simmons?

  That could be, they could get to 10 wins.

• 1:04:41Speaker 01

  Four and two. I, I know everybody slips up, but with this offense getting healthy, I think that's four and two or five and one.

• 1:04:48Bill Simmons?

  Do I have to worry about my NFC South bet? The division has 18 wins with six weeks left.

• 1:04:54Speaker 01

  But did you figure out how many automatic wins there are? Like how many division games are there?

• 1:04:58Bill Simmons?

  Well, there's a couple where they play each other, but I.

• 1:05:00Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:05:01Bill Simmons?

  But we have that, we had two, cause in the, we, one of the ones we did was the NFC East against the NFC South. The NFC East has a three game lead over them, but the Giants probably aren't winning again.

• 1:05:11Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:05:12Bill Simmons?

  And they play a couple of NFC South teams.

• 1:05:15Speaker 01

  Three weeks ago, it was looking great. It didn't look like the Saints or the Panthers would win another game. And, uh, and the two receivers went down for Tampa. Now you're gonna have to do a little work, I think.

• 1:05:25Bill Simmons?

  Let's take a break for the pod.

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• 1:06:15Speaker 01

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• 1:06:45Bill Simmons?

  Week 13, guest alliance. I got sad today because once it's Thanksgiving, it's like almost the end of the regular season and the playoffs and we're, what are we, 60% done with the season now?

• 1:06:57Speaker 01

  Uh, yeah, so this is 13, 12 out of 18.

• 1:07:02Bill Simmons?

  12 out of 20, yeah.

• 1:07:03Speaker 01

  Oh, wow.

• 1:07:03Bill Simmons?

  I guess 12 out of 21, yeah, we're like 58% done with the season.

• 1:07:07Speaker 01

  Well, I, yeah, I know, it gets both ways, right? I'm like, I like sort of what, well, first of all, Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday, but then, um, because it's just football, football, football and food. But I also can, you and I will be able to memorize most of the team's remainder of their schedule, right? And then, but that's also very sad because that only means there's a few left. Yeah.

• 1:07:29Bill Simmons?

  I think saying Thanksgiving is your favorite holiday is not a controversial opinion.

• 1:07:36Speaker 01

  You know, they're going to get pushed back.

• 1:07:37Bill Simmons?

  Is Thanksgiving your favorite day? I think is a better conversation. So your single favorite day?

• 1:07:43Speaker 01

  Yeah, I can't think of what will, yeah, nothing compares, except when the Cowboys allows it. Yeah.

• 1:07:51Bill Simmons?

  It's great.

• 1:07:51Speaker 01

  You don't have to worry about your team losing though, right? You just got bets and food, that's fun.

• 1:07:55Bill Simmons?

  Well, you have Cowboys, Giants is our second game. It's only the fourth time in the, uh, since the merger that these two teams have played on Thanksgiving where they both have losing records.

• 1:08:08Speaker 01

  I believe it.

• 1:08:10Bill Simmons?

  So choke on your turkey eater and that's that.

• 1:08:12Speaker 01

  Oh, I'm, I'm, I'm set my alarm for a nap for that game, that's for sure.

• 1:08:18Bill Simmons?

  What, uh, what's our guest alliance record? Seven, um, seven and four?

• 1:08:22Speaker 01

  Um, I think you're better than that. Yeah, seven, four and one, you beat me last.

• 1:08:29Speaker 01

  Tell, go over how I can make the playoffs at four, seven and one. I want to hear it.

• 1:08:35Bill Simmons?

  Sign Daniel Jones to help you with your picks. Thanksgiving, Lions, Bears.

• 1:08:41Speaker 01

  Daniel Jones is my son.

• 1:08:44Speaker 01

  Go ahead.

• 1:08:46Bill Simmons?

  Lions, Bears in Detroit.

• 1:08:50Bill Simmons?

  And I think, here's my thinking on this. I think they had to jack this up so that you couldn't tease the Lions with anyone else. So even though this is probably should be Lions, seven and a half, I think it's Thanksgiving and everybody loves turkey and throwing somebody in a tease in Thanksgiving. I think it has to be Lions by nine.

• 1:09:08Speaker 01

  Okay, good. I get this. I said 10. They're not screwing around with the Lions. It's 10 and a half.

• 1:09:14Bill Simmons?

  That's too high.

• 1:09:16Speaker 01

  Well, hear me out. Not that I have to convince you the Lions are gonna win this game, but I feel like this is the season where they get the monkey off their back in, in many ways. Like Dan Campbell beat the crap out of the Cowboys for all that nonsense that went down last year in the regular season, right?

• 1:09:30Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:09:30Speaker 01

  The 49ers are gone, so they don't even have to worry about them and what happened in the NFC Championship. They do have that whole, oh my God, we were embarrassed on Thanksgiving last year by the Packers. I think they're gonna be up for this. I don't think this, that happens again.

• 1:09:45Bill Simmons?

  I saw a great Dan Campbell post-game speech. As I've been pushing, I don't know why this isn't just a Twitter feed of all the post-game speeches and all the lacrosse. That's all it is. It's just game ball speeches. He gave game balls to like four people and then was talking about how they were road warriors. Did you see this?

• 1:10:04Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:10:06Bill Simmons?

  He was like, when I got here, we had 0, 11 and 1 and all of our road games and since then we're 16 and 5. And all you guys in this locker room had something to do with that. He's great. He gives great post-game, probably the number one post-game speaker right now.

• 1:10:22Speaker 01

  Wouldn't you rather see the, the feed of the losing coaches give their speeches?

• 1:10:27Bill Simmons?

  Like Mayo?

• 1:10:28Speaker 01

  Yeah. How great would that be?

• 1:10:30Bill Simmons?

  Mayo like, hey, you know, six pre-stap penalties in the first half. We gotta work on that, guys.

• 1:10:36Speaker 01

  Oh, that's on you. That's on you guys. No, nothing's on me.

• 1:10:38Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. So guys, when we're snapping the ball, it's like either it's on one or it's on two or it's on three. And you just kind of remember when you get, when you, when you line up.

• 1:10:48Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:10:50Bill Simmons?

  It's gonna be two this time, then you move when it's two.

• 1:10:52Speaker 01

  It's just all numbers. We'll take, take off till Wednesday. We'll figure it out.

• 1:10:59Bill Simmons?

  Unbelievable. We've been to have him for another year.

• 1:11:03Bill Simmons?

  Cowboys Giants in Dallas.

• 1:11:09Bill Simmons?

  I can't believe I'm doing this, but I think it's Cowboys by seven.

• 1:11:13Speaker 01

  Oh, wow.

• 1:11:15Bill Simmons?

  Too low?

• 1:11:16Speaker 01

  I said three and a half. It's four and a half.

• 1:11:20Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:11:22Speaker 01

  The Vegas, the Fandel Vegas doesn't like Dallas this year.

• 1:11:26Bill Simmons?

  They just put that in the Vegas zone, huh? Well, I don't know if you read anything about the Giants game today, but um, apparently the Giants were like disconsolate after the game like they were all saying after they waved Daniel Jones like, the guy's our best quarterback. Why are we waving him? And then they're they're not even playing the second best quarterback. They're playing the third best quarterback. This is why you're not supposed to tank in the NFL because this is violent sport.

• 1:11:50Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:11:50Bill Simmons?

  That guys have to commit to at a certain physicality level. And when you have your franchise based like, yeah, we're done. You know, how do you expect the team to respond to that? The coach is on his way out. The GM's on his way out. The quarterback's not going to be there like, I don't understand, like, why would the Giants beat Dallas in Dallas?

• 1:12:09Speaker 01

  Um, I, I think we should just go with division game. Underdog is always a spot to win here. I really have no idea. I don't know. Tommy DeVito, I just, um, yeah, but it was like neighbors going off on Dable. It was like, ask, ask Dable why I didn't get a reception to like, or a target until the third quarter or whatever it was. But yeah, they're a mess. But you know, Daniel Jones is probably like, I see this guy get sacked. I'm glad it's not me. Just get me on a playoff team as a backup.

• 1:12:38Bill Simmons?

  There's one silver lining to this game. Which is one of the worst quarterback matchups we've ever had on Thanksgiving.

• 1:12:46Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:12:47Bill Simmons?

  Although Cooper Rush wasn't bad today. Tom Brady announcing this game.

• 1:12:52Speaker 01

  Oh, wow.

• 1:12:54Bill Simmons?

  Could this be the Tom Brady heel turn game? Could this be his Walter Wade breaking bad, getting pushed over the edge, shaving his head? Performance. Where the quarterback play is so bad and he's so mad that he's working on Thanksgiving. He finally becomes Tom Brady, TV analyst, and he's just ripping guys.

• 1:13:13Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:13:14Bill Simmons?

  And actually telling us like what they're doing wrong. Could it happen?

• 1:13:17Speaker 01

  Starts beating the shit out of an intern with a turkey leg that's put, put, propped up on the set.

• 1:13:22Bill Simmons?

  I'll show you jujitsu.

• 1:13:27Speaker 01

  Do it, Tom. What does he have to lose?

• 1:13:29Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:13:29Speaker 01

  He owns a team.

• 1:13:31Bill Simmons?

  It's alright. Shave your head. Packers Dolphins is our third game. It's a great game. It's in Green Bay. And it's gonna be freezing cold and you're gonna see over the next four days, a lot of stats about how bad the Dolphins are when it's super cold. How bad Tua is when it's super cold. And I can't wait to bet on the Packers in this game, Sal. Just spoiler alert.

• 1:13:54Bill Simmons?

  I'm gonna say Packers by four.

• 1:13:57Speaker 01

  Yeah, that's what I said. It is three and a half.

• 1:14:00Bill Simmons?

  Ah.

• 1:14:00Speaker 01

  We split that.

• 1:14:01Bill Simmons?

  Man.

• 1:14:02Speaker 01

  Alright, so what's the, what's the tease? You know, you're doing a money line parlay. Is it just Lions Packers and you'll pay a little juice?

• 1:14:08Bill Simmons?

  Should we do this for Fando? I'll tweet this out.

• 1:14:11Speaker 01

  Go ahead.

• 1:14:11Bill Simmons?

  Like Fando.

• 1:14:14Bill Simmons?

  So we could do...

• 1:14:17Speaker 01

  You can make it simple. I mean, forget that middle game.

• 1:14:19Bill Simmons?

  Packers money line with...

• 1:14:21Speaker 01

  It's minus 120.

• 1:14:22Bill Simmons?

  With Detroit money line?

• 1:14:24Speaker 01

  That's minus 120. Oh. I'm gonna make it that easy.

• 1:14:27Bill Simmons?

  That seems so easy.

• 1:14:31Bill Simmons?

  That's all we have to do. Packers.

• 1:14:34Speaker 01

  You'll, you'll win that first one by 9:50 a.m. And then you take a nap and then you take some gummies and you take a nap, Bill, and you miss that giant Cowboy game and you come back and watch Lambo and they're gonna win.

• 1:14:52Bill Simmons?

  I'm all in on that tease. I feel like we have to grab that right now. I know I would say that, but that minus 120 is not gonna be there much longer.

• 1:15:00Speaker 01

  Yeah, let's not screw it over on there's anything. That's it.

• 1:15:04Bill Simmons?

  And then Thanksgiving, so you get Packers Dolphins. And then when it hits midnight on the East Coast, you get to watch my Yacht Rock documentary.

• 1:15:11Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:15:12Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:15:13Speaker 01

  That'd be fun.

• 1:15:14Bill Simmons?

  It's great. You'll love it. There's no way you won't love it.

• 1:15:18Speaker 01

  Come on. Kidding me?

• 1:15:20Bill Simmons?

  Sunday marquee.

• 1:15:22Speaker 01

  Well, hold on. Are you gonna do Friday?

• 1:15:27Speaker 01

  Oh, you didn't know. It was a Friday game.

• 1:15:29Bill Simmons?

  Raiders Chiefs.

• 1:15:31Speaker 01

  Raiders Chiefs. And we can't start over because we're live.

• 1:15:35Bill Simmons?

  Fairly watchable. No, I'm not going to change my guess.

• 1:15:37Speaker 01

  All right.

• 1:15:38Bill Simmons?

  I forgot about the Black Friday game.

• 1:15:40Speaker 01

  Hmm.

• 1:15:41Bill Simmons?

  And it's funny because they sent me a T-shirt of the studio crew with my face in the middle of it. I should have worn it.

• 1:15:47Speaker 01

  Really? And that's what you turn you.

• 1:15:49Bill Simmons?

  It looks like I'm in the crew. It looks like I'm ready to have an argument with Sherman.

• 1:15:53Speaker 01

  I love it.

• 1:15:55Bill Simmons?

  All right. So Kansas City home for the Raiders.

• 1:15:59Speaker 01

  Hmm.

• 1:16:03Speaker 01

  It's probably going to be Ritter, right? Because well, you read that blurb to us. It seemed like it was going to be Ritter.

• 1:16:09Bill Simmons?

  Might be Minshew.

• 1:16:12Speaker 01

  It's inspiring.

• 1:16:14Bill Simmons?

  Uh, I have the Chiefs by 11 and a half.

• 1:16:17Speaker 01

  That's what. Oh, you get it. I had 11. It's 13 and a half.

• 1:16:22Bill Simmons?

  Oh, boy.

• 1:16:24Speaker 01

  Now, listen, if you want to wait just a few hours more and do Lions, Packers, Chiefs, that gets in the plus 103.

• 1:16:32Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, but that's another Milton Borough situation for the Chiefs. It's Black Friday. Trust them.

• 1:16:36Speaker 01

  They're not loo. They they lost to them on Christmas. They can't keep listening to the Raiders.

• 1:16:40Bill Simmons?

  Oh, so you can do 13 point T's.

• 1:16:42Speaker 01

  Just do the money line. Just Lions money line, Packers money line, Chiefs money line.

• 1:16:48Bill Simmons?

  What does that get us to?

• 1:16:49Speaker 01

  Plus 103.

• 1:16:52Bill Simmons?

  That's pretty good.

• 1:16:54Speaker 01

  Oh, there's so much college.

• 1:16:56Bill Simmons?

  Aren't the Chiefs going to fuck us one of these next four weeks with the like they did that time with the Raiders a year ago?

• 1:17:02Speaker 01

  Yeah, but it's the Raiders.

• 1:17:04Bill Simmons?

  He fumbles, he throws a pick six. He gets hurt, he comes back in. Like, they haven't had that game yet.

• 1:17:10Speaker 01

  They hate this team, though, right? With the cigars and everything else.

• 1:17:13Bill Simmons?

  The Raiders talk shit.

• 1:17:14Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:17:16Bill Simmons?

  Sunday's marquee game is the Ravens and the Eagles in Baltimore.

• 1:17:20Speaker 01

  Hmm.

• 1:17:20Bill Simmons?

  It's a wonderful sporting event. The Ravens, for all we know, could be seven and five heading into this game.

• 1:17:26Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:17:26Bill Simmons?

  And sweating out a playoff spot. I personally think they're going to win tomorrow. I don't know. Where do you stand on the Chargers?

• 1:17:31Speaker 01

  I do, too. Yeah, I have them. I money line them. So that's probably going to be bad for them.

• 1:17:38Speaker 01

  Well, Big Brother wins, right? Big Brother always wins.

• 1:17:44Bill Simmons?

  Ravens, I have a minus three against the Eagles.

• 1:17:48Speaker 01

  It is, you got it exactly. I said two and a half.

• 1:17:52Bill Simmons?

  Hmm.

• 1:17:52Speaker 01

  Now we're tied.

• 1:17:53Bill Simmons?

  Okay. It's a good game.

• 1:17:56Speaker 01

  That's it. Barclay Henry, offensive player of the year.

• 1:17:58Bill Simmons?

  This is it. Trades of the year. Watchables, three of them. Bengals Steelers in Cincinnati.

• 1:18:07Bill Simmons?

  Bengals now in, we have to win every game territory. Steelers.

• 1:18:13Bill Simmons?

  So I was at the, at the, we did a premiere for the Yacht Rock Doc on Thursday night. So I had the Steelers game on my phone.

• 1:18:20Speaker 01

  Beautiful, isn't it?

• 1:18:21Bill Simmons?

  And I couldn't, I couldn't even, I couldn't watch it during thing. And I also really wanted to watch thing, but I glanced at it a couple of times. And it was 18-6.

• 1:18:29Speaker 01

  So pretty.

• 1:18:30Bill Simmons?

  And I didn't look for 10, 12 minutes, looked back down, it was 19-18 Steelers. It's like, oh. Looked back again, it was 24-19 final. And I was like, I can't wait to find out what happened in this game. That game was just fully bonkers. But, um.

• 1:18:47Speaker 01

  It's a fun Jameis game. I, I feel like Jameis might be the quarterback who doesn't have a chance. That I root for the most. It's just so, I mean, it was like 0 for nine and third down and four for four with fourth downs. It's just, uh, it was perfect for him and it looked great. And NFL Films did the thing and him running in slow motion. I'm like, oh, this is why I love football. I don't even care.

• 1:19:07Bill Simmons?

  I can't believe of all the shitty Thursday night games we have to watch. That game, you know how much I love, I know everyone loves snow, but I really like, love snow. I'm a 10 out of 10 for loving snow. And I love seeing it on the TV. The flick sticking to Tomlin's beard. I can't, of all the games, why did it have to be the game when I was at a documentary premiere? I was so bummed out.

• 1:19:27Speaker 01

  I'm a 10 out of 10 for loving snow. Sounds like something you'd hear on yacht rock. So that's perfect.

• 1:19:33Bill Simmons?

  I think that was the song. I think Steven Bishop wrote that one.

• 1:19:36Speaker 01

  Yeah. Was that Bishop?

• 1:19:37Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:19:39Speaker 01

  This is Steely Dan? I don't know.

• 1:19:40Bill Simmons?

  I'm a 10 out of 10 for loving snow.

• 1:19:45Speaker 01

  Stupid.

• 1:19:48Bill Simmons?

  I have Bengals by one and a half against Steelers.

• 1:19:51Speaker 01

  Uh, I get this. I said two, it is two and a half.

• 1:19:55Bill Simmons?

  So when was the last time a four and 17 was favored by two and a half against an eight and three team that did not have any injuries?

• 1:20:04Speaker 01

  Probably a long, long time ago.

• 1:20:07Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, pretty rare.

• 1:20:08Speaker 01

  They, are they gonna outslug the Bengals though? That's it. Cause you know, Burrows, Burrows dialed in, right? So even the Steelers defense, as much trouble as they give them, should have, should score like 26, 27 points. I think it's enough. And everything's a must win now for Cincy. That's why.

• 1:20:25Bill Simmons?

  I think the Steelers are good. And I think they played a Thursday night game, right? Four days after this emotional win over Baltimore. It snowed like a motherfucker. It was a stupid game that had a lot of dumb momentum twists and I think you throw it out.

• 1:20:42Speaker 01

  He also got outcoached a little bit and he's allowed to, right? You can get outcoached once a year and now is that game? Yeah. It's always a tough division battle.

• 1:20:53Bill Simmons?

  Falcons Chargers. It's in Atlanta.

• 1:21:00Bill Simmons?

  Probably not betting on this game.

• 1:21:02Speaker 01

  I hit it exactly.

• 1:21:03Bill Simmons?

  Probably the Chargers in the tees. But I'm gonna say Falcons by one and a half.

• 1:21:08Speaker 01

  Oh, that's why you did it. Well, you're right and you're wrong. I said Chargers by one and a half and it is Chargers by one and a half. But the one and a half's always flip. They always flip by Thursday.

• 1:21:17Bill Simmons?

  Chargers by one and a half.

• 1:21:19Speaker 01

  Chargers are favored, but.

• 1:21:20Bill Simmons?

  Oh my God.

• 1:21:21Speaker 01

  If we talk Thursday, it'll be Falcons and then it might flip again. I mean, that's what happened with Arizona and Seattle. It's happened with so many of these. Jets Texans, same thing.

• 1:21:29Bill Simmons?

  So you think there's a one and a half conspiracy?

• 1:21:32Speaker 01

  There is. It's the tic tac, tic tac terrorists out there moving these lines.

• 1:21:38Bill Simmons?

  It's like how the, it's the black eye conspiracy with celebrities.

• 1:21:43Bill Simmons?

  And celebrities only have black eyes on their left eye, some sort of illuminati thing.

• 1:21:48Speaker 01

  Exactly.

• 1:21:49Bill Simmons?

  Leno fell down the hill and it's like, left eye was black, shit's going on.

• 1:21:54Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:21:54Bill Simmons?

  I don't know how they come up with this stuff.

• 1:21:57Speaker 01

  That's true. It's all true.

• 1:21:58Bill Simmons?

  I'm gonna have a black eye on my left eye in two days. We'll show you.

• 1:22:04Bill Simmons?

  It did, there was a Reddit person who broke down that Leno thing really well.

• 1:22:09Speaker 01

  But he ended up, he almost definitely is telling the truth, right?

• 1:22:13Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it seems like he's telling the truth. He was playing.

• 1:22:15Speaker 01

  Yeah, that sucks.

• 1:22:16Bill Simmons?

  He's playing at some weird club in Germantown, Pennsylvania. There was the hotel, everyone was like, why is he staying at that hotel? He's a billionaire. But it's like, it was the nearest hotel to where that gig was.

• 1:22:27Speaker 01

  He's also cheap.

• 1:22:27Bill Simmons?

  He's also very cheap. And he's also super cheap. He spends all his money on cars.

• 1:22:31Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:22:31Bill Simmons?

  He was trying to walk to some restaurant that he tried to cut, walk down a hill to cut the distance so he didn't have to go around. And he's 74. It's the kind of thing like our dads would have done.

• 1:22:41Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:22:42Bill Simmons?

  You'd have been like, what, I'd be like, Sal, what happened to your dad? It's like, ah, he fell.

• 1:22:45Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:22:45Bill Simmons?

  Like, it's just, it's just kind of what happens when you're mid 70s. So I think it adds up, but I still like the conspiracy stuff. I enjoyed all of it.

• 1:22:53Speaker 01

  Either way, the irony is great that he didn't have a car. Guy's got like 75 funny cars and hangars all over, um, all over California.

• 1:23:03Bill Simmons?

  Well, the more confusing thing to me is he made, I mean, he was making 30 million a year in The Tonight Show for 20 years.

• 1:23:11Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:23:11Bill Simmons?

  And when he was doing stand-up gigs and making crazy money on those, why does he have to go to like the middle of somewhere in Pennsylvania and do stand-up?

• 1:23:19Speaker 01

  Yeah. And he's indignant when they ask him about it. Like, well, why don't you just cancel the show? Like, the show must go on. It's like, alright. You're 103. You could, you could sit one out.

• 1:23:30Bill Simmons?

  I'm at the Red Roof Inn on Big Bear Mountain on November 29th.

• 1:23:36Bill Simmons?

  It's like, what, it's place 74. Why didn't you retire? Go sit on a beach.

• 1:23:40Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:23:42Bill Simmons?

  Um, Vikings are home for the Cardinals.

• 1:23:46Speaker 01

  It's a good one.

• 1:23:47Bill Simmons?

  I'll never trust Kyler Murray again until about three weeks from now. I have Vikings minus three against Cardinals.

• 1:23:56Speaker 01

  I had you out here. I had three and a half and that's what it is.

• 1:23:59Bill Simmons?

  Hmm, that's too high.

• 1:24:03Bill Simmons?

  That'll be three.

• 1:24:06Speaker 01

  You're gonna throw that, you're gonna throw Kyler in a teaser?

• 1:24:09Bill Simmons?

  No, I'm not going near this game.

• 1:24:11Speaker 01

  Alright.

• 1:24:11Bill Simmons?

  Fairly watchables. Colts at the Pats. I just think the Richardson may makes this a fairly watchable, not a poop factor.

• 1:24:19Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 1:24:20Bill Simmons?

  Colts are gonna be favored.

• 1:24:23Bill Simmons?

  And I think it's Colts by one and a half.

• 1:24:26Speaker 01

  Um, I had two. I think it's two and a half now.

• 1:24:30Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:24:34Speaker 01

  That's fair.

• 1:24:37Bill Simmons?

  It's gonna be a loss. I don't think the Pats are getting to five wins. I think I'm gonna win that bet.

• 1:24:42Speaker 01

  Well, when did you make that bet?

• 1:24:44Bill Simmons?

  Before the year. That was like my lock of the year was I had the Pats under 4 and 1/2 wins.

• 1:24:49Speaker 01

  You could do it again.

• 1:24:50Bill Simmons?

  But I didn't know Drake May was gonna be, I wouldn't have made that bet if I knew Drake was gonna be good. Like in year one.

• 1:24:57Speaker 01

  You could sell it if you want because it's still 4 and 1/2. The under is minus 144. It's still 4 and 1/2, yeah.

• 1:25:05Bill Simmons?

  What's Carolina? I just had a curiosity. That's 4 and 1/2 too.

• 1:25:09Speaker 01

  Yeah, some of these, there's like Cleveland, I think is also 4 and 1/2.

• 1:25:13Bill Simmons?

  Your team's 6 and 1/2.

• 1:25:15Speaker 01

  Uh, I know. You have them winning 10. Sure.

• 1:25:18Bill Simmons?

  I said 9.

• 1:25:21Bill Simmons?

  Denver is 9 and 1/2 now.

• 1:25:25Bill Simmons?

  Jesus. What's Miami?

• 1:25:29Bill Simmons?

  Wow, Miami's only 7 and 1/2. They're 5 and 6.

• 1:25:33Speaker 01

  The over's minus 200 though, right? Yeah. It's a big, big juice on the over.

• 1:25:39Bill Simmons?

  Miami to make the playoffs is plus 240.

• 1:25:44Speaker 01

  Yeah, I don't like it. You might as well just bet them against Green Bay and then just keep rolling it in some of these important games.

• 1:25:51Bill Simmons?

  Washington to make the playoffs is, oh, that's Tampa. Tampa's plus 114. Washington's minus 188. Okay. Seahawks are at the Jets. Seahawks are

• 1:26:04Bill Simmons?

  going to be favored in this game. I don't know if there's a lot of weeks left to win real money against the Jets before the line shift. It feels like the last week. The Seahawks defense has looked legitimately good the last two weeks. Seahawks by 1 and 1/2 is gonna be my pick.

• 1:26:21Speaker 01

  You got it. That was smart. I said 2 and this is, this is another one that's gonna flip. Unless there's a quarterback change, although I don't even know what would have to move. Does, does the line move if Rogers is out?

• 1:26:36Speaker 01

  Jets favored by three?

• 1:26:39Bill Simmons?

  With Tyrod Taylor, I don't think the line moves. Rogers has been awful.

• 1:26:43Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:26:45Bill Simmons?

  So Tyrod Taylor, does the, does the Jets Seahawks line move with Tyrod Taylor? Like San Francisco moved three and a half points today when Purdy went out. I think it stays the same.

• 1:26:56Speaker 01

  I don't think it moves.

• 1:26:56Bill Simmons?

  It would be crazy if it moved the other way and the Jets were favored with Tyrod.

• 1:27:00Speaker 01

  What's he gonna do? Not throw downfield? It's fine. And so it's exactly what, um, can he bring his friends in? Tyrod Taylor? Okay, we have a whole new receiving corps. These are my buddies. I grew up with them.

• 1:27:12Bill Simmons?

  Rogers dresses up like the Chargers team doctor and tries to stab Tyrod with a needle?

• 1:27:17Speaker 01

  Yeah, well, he's a medical expert, yeah.

• 1:27:20Bill Simmons?

  Washington is home for the Titans. So this was, I guess the Lions before the day and I had Washington by seven. I'm gonna knock that down to six. Washington by six.

• 1:27:31Speaker 01

  Yeah, you get this. I said seven and a half, only because, I don't know why, but it's five and a half.

• 1:27:40Bill Simmons?

  Well, it looked like Edgar got knocked out at the end of the game.

• 1:27:42Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:27:43Bill Simmons?

  So he won't play. And he's had a few concussions before. So just Brian Robinson, who was hurt during the game today. And they have that McNichols guy, but I think they're gonna have trouble running the ball. And then Daniel still doesn't look healthy. We're gonna find out after the year that he has like three cracked ribs, right?

• 1:27:58Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, for sure. I'm just looking at it as a must win in Tennessee. It's also a must loss for them after winning this today. I mean, how are they gonna pull this off?

• 1:28:08Bill Simmons?

  Rams at the Saints. And after what we saw from the Rams today, I think they're gonna be favored, but I don't think it's gonna be much. I'm gonna say Rams by one and a half at the Saints.

• 1:28:19Speaker 01

  Rams by, I said two and it's two and a half.

• 1:28:24Bill Simmons?

  Lot of momentum for the Clogger. I don't know if you've been following this.

• 1:28:27Speaker 01

  Yeah, why not?

• 1:28:28Bill Simmons?

  People like the Clogger. The team's responding.

• 1:28:33Speaker 01

  What is the Clogger?

• 1:28:33Bill Simmons?

  He's clogging up that team with wins.

• 1:28:35Speaker 01

  Oh my God. What, what is his bye week like, the Clogger? When he doesn't have to watch what he eats?

• 1:28:40Bill Simmons?

  Lot of salad.

• 1:28:44Bill Simmons?

  Lot of salad and hot water. Poop Fecta, speaking of the clogger, we got two. We got Texans at Jacksonville. And, uh, I can't believe Doug Peterson's still the coach. It seemed impossible after the 52 to six game. What was that, a week ago?

• 1:29:00Speaker 01

  He survived the bye. I didn't even realize that. Yeah. They must've been busy. The ownership must've been vacationing or something.

• 1:29:10Bill Simmons?

  I have Texans by three and a half at Jacksonville.

• 1:29:12Speaker 01

  Uh, I had four and a half. It's five and a half. We're both.

• 1:29:15Bill Simmons?

  I like Jacksonville.

• 1:29:17Speaker 01

  You do?

• 1:29:18Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:29:18Speaker 01

  Oh, because of your guy?

• 1:29:20Bill Simmons?

  No, I don't think, I don't think Houston's very good.

• 1:29:24Bill Simmons?

  And I had that, I have future bets on them. I was all in on them. I've been waiting for it to turn around, but I don't think they can block.

• 1:29:31Speaker 01

  No.

• 1:29:32Bill Simmons?

  From what I'm watching, week to week, doesn't seem like they can block and their defense seems like when you really need to drive the ball down the field on them, you can't.

• 1:29:39Speaker 01

  It's probably a stay away. I don't, what I don't want for this last, you know, seven weeks of the season, whatever, is for the South divisions to rip my guts out. Right?

• 1:29:48Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:29:48Speaker 01

  So if we're on the wrong side of too many of these.

• 1:29:51Bill Simmons?

  It's a great way to think about it.

• 1:29:53Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:29:53Bill Simmons?

  Great way to think about it. And here's another one. Bucks at Panthers.

• 1:29:59Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:29:59Bill Simmons?

  So I have Bucks by four and a half in Carolina, and I like Carolina.

• 1:30:05Speaker 01

  Oh, I had six. It's six and a half. Oh, I'm gonna win this week.

• 1:30:09Bill Simmons?

  No. Come on.

• 1:30:11Speaker 01

  10 to 5 or something.

• 1:30:13Bill Simmons?

  Oh, I guess you are gonna win.

• 1:30:16Speaker 01

  You, wait, who did you say? You like Carolina?

• 1:30:18Bill Simmons?

  No. I'm gonna give you Carolina's last couple of weeks. Week nine, they beat the Saints by one. Week 10, they beat the Giants by three. Week 12, tied with KC with a minute left.

• 1:30:33Bill Simmons?

  And they had a bye week in there, too. They haven't really had a bad game since week seven. They got killed by Washington. But even the Denver game, the 14 to 28 loss.

• 1:30:42Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:30:44Bill Simmons?

  It wasn't like they didn't get demolished. So they're, at least they're getting better, unlike my team.

• 1:30:48Speaker 01

  No, it's respectable. I mean, I have the Bucks. You should also have the Bucks that win the division. We had an agreement, but, so I have to, have to lean heavy into this.

• 1:30:57Bill Simmons?

  But instead of doing that, I could just bet against Atlanta this week, right?

• 1:31:01Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:31:02Bill Simmons?

  Cause that Tampa, for them to win the division, Atlanta won. Sunday night, Bills, 49ers, a game that I'm sure they were thinking was gonna be one of the best games of the year. We, uh, three months ago. Oh, Al, I just, I'm thinking about how great this game seemed to knock August. Now, I just wanna do a shot of whiskey or something, Al.

• 1:31:23Speaker 01

  I don't have a goddamn good thing to say about Brandon Allen. Can we just fast forward to next week?

• 1:31:29Bill Simmons?

  I just, I'll get excited about George Kittle if you want me to, Al, but I just.

• 1:31:37Bill Simmons?

  I think this goes over seven. I think this is Bills by seven and a half.

• 1:31:41Speaker 01

  I said seven and it's six and a half.

• 1:31:45Bill Simmons?

  Just like a point off with all of these.

• 1:31:48Speaker 01

  Well, that, is this the Kyle Shanahan? We're gonna F everybody up, everybody trying to get their money back from the Thursday night and Thanksgiving weekend? Is this the one?

• 1:32:00Bill Simmons?

  So Purdy's probably playing.

• 1:32:03Speaker 01

  Yeah, that's true. Yeah.

• 1:32:04Bill Simmons?

  That's about all we got. If you're, if you're making the case for the Niners, it's backs to the wall. If they lose this game, their season's over. They have a losing record in their division. You can't lose this game and have a realistic chance. I guess maybe you could sneak into the playoffs as we made the case with your team, but.

• 1:32:21Speaker 01

  I think Purdy, is he definitely playing? Like, they thought he was gonna play this week, too. So to, to say that, that think he's gonna be ready, I don't know. I guess this is their season, though. He's gotta do it.

• 1:32:32Bill Simmons?

  Monday night, Broncos home for the Browns. This is really the Sal Bowl. Your guy Bo Nix against your guy Jameis.

• 1:32:40Speaker 01

  So much fun.

• 1:32:41Bill Simmons?

  It's really, uh, really everything you want.

• 1:32:44Speaker 01

  Do we, do you wanna guess, um, cause there's odds up for, uh, offensive rookie of the year?

• 1:32:49Bill Simmons?

  I think Bo Nix has to be favored.

• 1:32:53Speaker 01

  Then you should bet him. He's plus 125. Daniel's minus 150, minus 150.

• 1:33:01Speaker 01

  The number one pick is 50 to one Caleb Williams.

• 1:33:07Bill Simmons?

  Jesus. I didn't think he was bad today.

• 1:33:11Speaker 01

  No, he wasn't. He wasn't.

• 1:33:12Bill Simmons?

  He made some plays.

• 1:33:13Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:33:15Bill Simmons?

  So I got Broncos minus three and a half against Cleveland.

• 1:33:18Speaker 01

  You're gonna get that. I said three. It's four and a half, but

• 1:33:23Speaker 01

  too little, too late for you, Simmons.

• 1:33:25Bill Simmons?

  All right. Seven, five and one. You beat me on your favorite week of the year.

• 1:33:28Speaker 01

  I love it. I love it.

• 1:33:30Bill Simmons?

  Cowboys are alive?

• 1:33:34Speaker 01

  That's gotta stop. I mean, I don't know why that still gets me annoyed, but.

• 1:33:37Bill Simmons?

  Listen, are the Cowboys alive or are they not? They're alive.

• 1:33:41Speaker 01

  No, we crossed them off. We have say.

• 1:33:43Bill Simmons?

  But they're alive.

• 1:33:46Bill Simmons?

  What do you got for parent corner?

• 1:33:47Speaker 01

  Uh, what do I have? A couple of things. Well, first of all, we, um, you know, again, favorite weekend of the year, favorite day, got you're, you're, uh, there's always home already, right? Yeah. So now you got, you get to see her for what? A week or more?

• 1:34:05Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it's like eight days. She's been home since August 8th.

• 1:34:08Speaker 01

  Yeah, right. Same here. My guy comes home, um, Wednesday morning and he's leaving Friday. He's like, I'm going back because Oregon's playing Washington. I'm going to that game. And like, my wife was like, oh, this is terrible. It's like.

• 1:34:23Bill Simmons?

  How many times did she cry?

• 1:34:25Speaker 01

  Well, it hasn't happened yet, but I think she's, I think it's about that. I think it's gonna be, I think it's gonna be bad, but I was like, this is cats in the cradle, right? I would do the same thing and my parents would get mad and, uh, what are you gonna do?

• 1:34:37Bill Simmons?

  But she didn't cry when Archie said he was only coming home for two days? That didn't elicit tears?

• 1:34:41Speaker 01

  I think she had, um, regrouped and composed herself because I found out hours later, but I think the, I think the tears will, uh, flow naturally when it actually happens, going off. But, um, yeah, so that's that. The other thing is I picked my son Jack up from wrestling practice. And, uh, he's like extra dirty. And I was like, what, what the hell? Why do you smell? What's going on here? What, what'd you do? It's like, we had to clean garbage. So what do you mean you had to clean garbage? He's like, well, coach got mad because somebody went in the wrestling room and tried to lose extra weight and like was jumping rope and

• 1:35:19Speaker 01

  they were unsupervised and the principal found out and nobody would fess up. This is like the fourth nobody will fess up thing that they had to like do.

• 1:35:28Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:35:28Speaker 01

  They had to do community service as a result. And so we all had to clean garbage like over an hour, like an hour and a half after we ran. And I was like, all right, but can't the coach, I, I, you know, I've had bosses that do this, like the, you know, bosses and teachers and coaches that punish the whole group. But if you looked at it logically, like my kid is not going after hours to jump rope. He's just not, right? So like, can we, we could excuse him. What are we doing here? Like if, if you were at work and like a beet salad was missing from the community refrigerator? And you're like, nope, we're unplugging the refrigerator for everyone. You could assume it's not me that took the beet salad.

• 1:36:12Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:36:13Speaker 01

  I haven't seen a vegetable in like seven years. So I don't know what kind of, I don't know where you stand on that kind of messaging, but seems like it's excessive.

• 1:36:22Bill Simmons?

  Do you think Gerard Mayo should try some of this motivational tactics with the Patriots?

• 1:36:28Speaker 01

  Maybe.

• 1:36:29Bill Simmons?

  Six pre-staff penalties in the first half. You guys are all gonna have to clean up the garbage outside of Gillette Stadium.

• 1:36:35Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:36:37Speaker 01

  I'm unplugging all the electricity in the locker room. You're done.

• 1:36:41Bill Simmons?

  So everyone enjoys your parent corners every week. Rarely did I get multiple people in my life asking the same question about last week's parent corner from you.

• 1:36:51Speaker 01

  With the match? Yeah.

• 1:36:53Bill Simmons?

  If, if your, if your kid throws up during the match.

• 1:36:57Speaker 01

  Supposed to be.

• 1:36:57Bill Simmons?

  Why isn't that an automatic forfeit?

• 1:36:59Speaker 01

  Supposed to be. Cause our coach, which coincides with my, my story this week is a lunatic.

• 1:37:08Bill Simmons?

  So he somehow, he somehow talked the ref out of the forfeit?

• 1:37:12Speaker 01

  He had to be like, our kid's nervous. He's not sick. And then my kid's like, yeah, I'm nervous. And they're like, all right, uh, we'll, we'll clean up the dominoes and then we'll, uh, we'll let you finish. But yeah, that was it. But yeah, normally it is.

• 1:37:25Bill Simmons?

  It's amazing that just isn't a rule in, in Southern California sports, like vomit, wrestling, automatic match over.

• 1:37:35Speaker 01

  Right. Exactly.

• 1:37:37Bill Simmons?

  And then my wife wanted to ask that it's, it must've smelled like puke smells.

• 1:37:41Speaker 01

  It wasn't like.

• 1:37:42Bill Simmons?

  Clean up on the mat, but it's like still gonna smell, right?

• 1:37:45Speaker 01

  It was a little bit. It wasn't like stand by me, like with the, the potty contest. I wouldn't say that. But yeah, that was a lot. It was a little bit and they cleaned it up and that. Yeah. I mean, the kid was like, yeah, that's a good way to like, get a kid to forfeit. Like, I don't want to be vomited on, but yeah, that was it.

• 1:37:59Bill Simmons?

  But then I was thinking, maybe that should be Jack's thing. He throws up during every match. Signature move. Kid is so bummed out. He just wants to get pinned.

• 1:38:08Speaker 01

  You know, I once farted so bad that I was wrestling a really good kid, but I shouldn't have been pinned in the first period, but I was.

• 1:38:16Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:38:17Speaker 01

  And then like afterwards, he's like, I'm sorry, man. I had to get rid of you. That was just, that was so bad.

• 1:38:23Bill Simmons?

  The farting?

• 1:38:24Speaker 01

  I, I, I thought it would work. I thought it would work in my advantage, but to my advantage, but no, he had to, he had to step up as a arsenal.

• 1:38:32Bill Simmons?

  That was my parent corner. Um, so I picked up my daughter on Friday from the airport and I did the thing where you, you pull in illegally at the arrivals.

• 1:38:43Speaker 01

  Oh, no.

• 1:38:43Bill Simmons?

  Park the car. There are no, no cops. I think they know cause it's Thanksgiving. And I got there. I was like four minutes before her and I was watching. The, these other cars and there was a lot of kids like coming back from college already on that Friday. And it's like the most emotional hugs. You're like getting choked up in the car, watching all these people who haven't seen their kids and they just these huge, long hugs. And I'm like, I'm like, is this the most emotional place of in, in America every year? The, the kids coming home for Thanksgiving on the airplane and seeing their families? Then I was thinking, if I'm like United, this would be a great commercial over like fly the friendly sky, whatever United, United's commercial is.

• 1:39:27Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:39:27Bill Simmons?

  It should just be like these whole movie iPhone shots of all these people like, like people were like hugging each other and crying. Like they were so excited. They see each other. So I'm getting emotional watching. And then my daughter comes in with the bag and she's like, Hey dad, she's kind of gives me, cause I'd seen her a few weeks ago. So I was like ready to really have an emotional moment. It didn't happen, but um.

• 1:39:48Speaker 01

  I thought you were gonna say this should be a Twitter feed with only um embraces at the airport.

• 1:39:54Bill Simmons?

  I need game ball locker room speeches and, and emotional airport hugs. Um.

• 1:40:00Speaker 01

  I would like somebody come off and like, someone coming off a Spirit Airlines flight. Like, why do you have a black guy? What happened? What? You and Jay Leno? What is this? What's going on?

• 1:40:11Bill Simmons?

  They're lubidati after you. Um, yeah. So anyway, and I was in a good mood the whole day and then picked her up. We drive, we're talking in the car. We drive back and we end up going for dinner that night, the four of us. It was like old times.

• 1:40:26Speaker 01

  Nice.

• 1:40:27Bill Simmons?

  And then within not even 24 hours, my wife and my daughter are yelling at each other.

• 1:40:33Speaker 01

  Oh, nice.

• 1:40:33Bill Simmons?

  By Sunday, my wife's like, she's just the kitchen. Like I, I just, here's what I didn't miss is the way you treat the kitchen. And it's just like, we're just back. Like, oh, emotion, emotion's out the window. Now everybody's yelling at each other again. We're really back though.

• 1:40:50Speaker 01

  Yeah. There might be too much lead up time to Thanksgiving, right? I wonder what the perfect amount is. Two days.

• 1:40:57Bill Simmons?

  Like two and a half. Probably like a Tuesday. But it's nice, nice to have her home. The dog, Murph just lost, absolutely lost his mind. Like, uh, you know, cause he hadn't seen her in three and a half months. Was it private? Didn't even, what do you think dogs think when people disappear?

• 1:41:16Speaker 01

  They're not smart.

• 1:41:17Bill Simmons?

  I don't know if you've noticed, but not like smart animals. Or do they just have, it's almost like have dog Alzheimer's where they're just like, they have no long-term memory. And it's like, hey, it's that person.

• 1:41:28Speaker 01

  Right. Yeah. I don't know what they think. I don't, I don't, um, you know what? I'm, I'm so locked into sports gambling and losing. I don't have time to think about what dogs are thinking about.

• 1:41:38Bill Simmons?

  What'd your dog think of Washington somehow, somehow losing?

• 1:41:42Speaker 01

  I have kids vomiting on, vomiting on mats and stuff like that. Time to analyze, psychoanalyze a dog.

• 1:41:50Bill Simmons?

  It's great though. It's, it's great to have everybody in one spot.

• 1:41:53Speaker 01

  I like that idea for United or whoever though. That's a, that's really, I can't believe they haven't done.

• 1:41:58Bill Simmons?

  I was trying to think what's the more emotional other than like, uh,

• 1:42:01Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:42:01Bill Simmons?

  Like happy emotional, not like sad emotional, like a funeral. Like I guess like a wedding would be happy emotional.

• 1:42:07Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:42:08Bill Simmons?

  Airport, my kid is coming home from college. There's not graduations. Maybe there's not like a lot of just pure happy emotional moments.

• 1:42:15Speaker 01

  Wedding is the whole event, but you're right. But with the airport, it's that exact embrace moment of embracing, right? Because we, we think about, I, I don't know, living out here, we think about the airport as, oh, Andy Dick's going to be, say something terrible to TMZ, uh, stepping off a JetBlue flight or something, but you're right. It's been in a positive way.

• 1:42:37Bill Simmons?

  Even the people whose parents didn't greet them, like hugging the Uber driver.

• 1:42:41Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:42:41Bill Simmons?

  It's like, hey.

• 1:42:42Speaker 01

  Exactly. There's always a hug.

• 1:42:44Bill Simmons?

  Uber driver's like, ah, ah, all right. That was parent corner. Uh, what do you have to, uh, what do you have to plug?

• 1:42:50Speaker 01

  What do I have? Simmons through the ringer with the great Tate Frazier against all odds, couple of times a week on the Ringer Podcast Network. We're going to review Monday night football, go over the big, uh, college games and playoff implications. Cousin Sal's winning weekend with Michael Irvin and Ringer pregame show. Now, listen, this has become very competitive. And you know, I don't like that, but I gave out a bunch of winners and it's not a four hour show. We only get to talk like seven times each. Wisest wager was the Bears locked in at three and a half. My dog was the Titans plus three, 10. Tommy DeVito to not throw a touch, an interception. Jacobs over 74 and a half rushing yards. And the ice cream sundae, a segment you created, Lions by 11 to 20 points, plus 290. What a week for me.

• 1:43:35Bill Simmons?

  That one hit. The Titans didn't hit though. Did they win?

• 1:43:39Speaker 01

  Titans plus 310.

• 1:43:40Bill Simmons?

  Oh, they did win.

• 1:43:40Speaker 01

  What's the matter with you?

• 1:43:41Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they won. Yeah, so you hit all of those?

• 1:43:43Speaker 01

  Forty minutes on it. You need a hug from your daughter. What's the matter with you? Yes, I hit all.

• 1:43:47Bill Simmons?

  Talking for an hour and a half. Yeah, for some reason I thought they covered.

• 1:43:50Speaker 01

  That's it. Watch the Ringer. Watch the Ringer pregame show.

• 1:43:53Bill Simmons?

  How many, how many sides of the Ice Cream Sundae pick did we get?

• 1:43:57Speaker 01

  I was the only one.

• 1:43:59Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:44:00Speaker 01

  I don't want, I don't want to, I don't want to crap on these guys, but I was the only one. What are you gonna do?

• 1:44:05Bill Simmons?

  I have to plug, uh, Yacht Rock on HBO and Max on Friday. It's really good.

• 1:44:12Speaker 01

  Give us a little tease. What's good? What are people gonna sink their teeth into?

• 1:44:16Bill Simmons?

  I'm really glad that Michael McDonald finally gets his just due. But I, I think, but it's, put it this way.

• 1:44:22Speaker 01

  You don't know me, but I'm your brother.

• 1:44:25Bill Simmons?

  He has multiple moments where he just cooks in it, but I, it's really, I think it's not what you think it is, this doc. That's what I will say. I don't want to spoil it, but it's.

• 1:44:35Speaker 01

  The hell's that mean?

• 1:44:36Bill Simmons?

  Way more about the music than, than the comedy of it and stuff like that. I think people are gonna be surprised.

• 1:44:43Speaker 01

  Okay. And it has nothing to do with Vince McMahon?

• 1:44:45Bill Simmons?

  It doesn't. Vince couldn't put Vince into this.

• 1:44:48Speaker 01

  All right. All right, next time.

• 1:44:53Bill Simmons?

  Uh, that's it. Cuz, good job by you.

• 1:44:55Speaker 01

  Good job by you, buddy.

• 1:44:59Bill Simmons?

  All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Cousin Sal. Thanks to nephew Kyle, Steve Sarudy, Gahal, everybody, uh, behind the scenes who helped with such a spectacular production. Wasn't that many people, but it was still fun. Uh, you can watch this podcast on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. Don't forget new rewatchables coming Monday night. Running Scared, don't forget about the Yacht Rock documentary coming Friday, day after Thanksgiving on Max and on HBO. And I will see you on this podcast on Tuesday.

• 1:45:59Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by Searchlight Pictures Wild Horse 9. John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell. I like those guys, starring the sharp-witted comedy thriller from Academy Award winner, Martin McDonagh, writer-director of The Banshees of Minnehoshan and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, set in the 1970s, filmed on location on Easter Island. Malkovich and Rockwell play CIA agents Chris and Lee, who are caught in a dangerous game of secrets and survival. Also starring Steve Buscemi, another one of my guys, Parker Posey and Tom Waits. Wild Horse 9 is being hailed by critics as a revitalizing shot of pure entertainment and easily one of the best films of the year. Don't miss Wild Horse 9, only in theaters Friday.

• 1:46:44Bill Simmons?

  Get tickets now. This episode is brought to you by Whole Foods Market. Get everything you need to win Thanksgiving at Whole Foods Market. We're talking seasonal favorites from the bakery, easy weeknight meals for before the big day, and sales on body care and candles for last-minute gifts. Plus, with more than 300 banned food ingredients storewide, you know it's quality you can trust. Shop Thanksgiving favorites with higher standards at Whole Foods Market. Prime members shop at wfm.com and get your first order over $25 delivered free. Terms apply.