AI Profits Surge, $70B Capex Surge Raises Investor Concerns, Automated Skin Exams | Diet TBPN

Diet TBPN delivers the best of today’s TBPN episode in 30 minutes. TBPN is a live tech talk show hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays, streaming weekdays 11–2 PT on X and YouTube, with each episode posted to podcast platforms right after. Described by The New York Times as “Silicon Valley’s newest obsession,” the show has recently featured Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Mark Cuban, and Satya Nadella. Follow TBPN: https://TBPN.com https://x.com/tbpn https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235 https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02John Coogan?

  We had to rush back from Stripe Sessions, fantastic interview with the Collison Brothers, many others yesterday. Go check it out if you haven't already. Fun stuff. We didn't go nearly deep enough on the whole Kosian singularity. There's a debate on the timeline about it. We can get into it later. We need to have some more economists on the show to break it down for us, but this is their big pitch. Firms get smaller and the future, the coast theory of the firm. Anyway, if you studied economics, you might be familiar, but it's jargon and you're going to be hearing a lot more of it.

• 0:31Jordi Hays?

  Whole lotta mumbo jumbo.

• 0:33John Coogan?

  I'm not even gonna try. I'm not even gonna try. Well, here's some, here's some less mumbo jumbo. Tech earnings, quad kill recap, four in one day. Last time this happened, I think it was 2020, four big tech companies, all same day. It is random. No one really knows why. It just sort of lines up. It's like a solar eclipse.

• 0:54Jordi Hays?

  Can you use astrology to predict the next one?

• 0:57John Coogan?

  Potentially, potentially.

• 0:58Jordi Hays?

  You would have to imagine it's some, something around the alignment of the planets that causes hyperscalers.

• 1:04John Coogan?

  More like the holidays, because books close, then certain things line up. Also, like Nvidia is never in the country. They're always like two or three weeks later. But anyway, let's go through what actually happened. Google was the big winner. They absolutely crushed. The stock's up 10% in the last couple of days, really successful. And there's a few reasons. So the core business is still growing. Google search, this was the question of is AI, are chatbots going to be eating into the core Google search revenue, the core business that drives all the other investments? The answer is unequivocally no. Google search and other revenue was 60.4 billion. Yeah. Up 19% year over year. I mean,

• 1:45John Coogan?

  two years ago, there was the whole like Google search is dead thesis that has not been borne out, at least this year. Very, very strong results there. Then Google Cloud is like the major story. So much so that take him, when he did his earnings recap, he didn't even talk about top lines at Google, Amazon and Microsoft. He just says Google Cloud revenue, 63% year over year. Amazon Web Services, 28% year over year. Azure, 40% year over year. And then Meta overall revenue, which we'll get into, 33% year over year. So he's not even looking at the, at the rest of the business, all that matters for the three major. Public clouds are those cloud businesses, not even anything, anything specific within

• 2:27John Coogan?

  the overall business. So, long story short, higher capex at Google, totally justified in a world of cloud acceleration. Backlog growth is huge. Cloud backlog nearly doubled to more than $460 billion. And importantly, this isn't like a five-year, 10-year contract type thing. Half of that, more than half of that backlog is expected to be recognized in the next 24 months. So, really good news there. Google Cloud hit $20 billion, up 63%. Now, it is smaller than Amazon, and that's why AWS is, people are hunting for high 20 growth rates, maybe it begins with three. In Google, it's smaller, so it can grow 63%. But that's still fantastic. And cloud operating income was 6.6 billion, which is very strong

• 3:12John Coogan?

  margin. So, everything is looking good. Search durability, demand for AI infrastructure, it's the full stack AI play right now. Microsoft showed solid execution, but they didn't dramatically change any particular narrative. I think a lot of this goes to like the, the, the just naturally slow deployment of enterprise AI. But this is the focus for Microsoft. They are the enterprise AI play.

• 3:35Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, one, one thing was notable is they weren't, they weren't heavily teasing anything related to the next Gemini release.

• 3:43John Coogan?

  Yeah, I, I, they wouldn't tease that at earnings.

• 3:46Jordi Hays?

  No, no, they have, they have historically. So, maybe that, maybe they want to let the model speak for itself.

• 3:51John Coogan?

  Yeah, probably announced Gemini 4, I would imagine, announced it.

• 3:57Jordi Hays?

  Or a coding specific model.

• 3:59John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, something there. I mean, there's certainly demand for it. They have the capacity. There's lots of opportunity. We'll probably be following that in three weeks when Google I/O happens. So, Microsoft, investors wanted to see Azure growth.

• 4:14John Coogan?

  Copilot adoption and a solid justification for all the capex. The stock's down 2%, nothing crazy, but Microsoft beat on headline numbers. Revenue was 82.9 billion, up 18% year over year. And from an analyst's perspective, it was a clean beat. But there's more nuance here. So in terms of AI adoption, Microsoft added about

• 4:36Jordi Hays?

  Look at this beautiful LED wall, John.

• 4:38John Coogan?

  Million, yeah.

• 4:40Jordi Hays?

  Still underrated. We ordered this bad boy maybe like six months ago.

• 4:45John Coogan?

  Six months ago, took a while. But it is fun. We need to figure out

• 4:48Jordi Hays?

  Worth the wait.

• 4:48John Coogan?

  More things to do with it. On copilot adoption, this is the big question. For Microsoft 365, like total seats, you know, you think about Microsoft Teams, Outlook, like the standard Microsoft enterprise seat. I think it's about $30 per user per month, competes with Google Apps Enterprise, right? But Microsoft's been doing this for much longer. They have 450 million paid seats. So in terms of copilot, they added 5 million, which is great. They're at 20 million now, so that's a solid adoption, but it's still small compared to the 450 paid seats. Ideally, like every seat would have a copilot alongside of it. That, I mean, that's the idea, right? And so the question is, how quickly can they get that 20 million copilot seats up to

• 5:33John Coogan?

  200 million, 400 million? You know, ideally, everyone has one of these add-on subscriptions and that's lifting the overall business. Market reaction was a bit choppy as the new OpenAI relationship gets digested. And so there's two sides to the Microsoft OpenAI deal right now. Of course, OpenAI is no longer limited to selling just through Azure. Azure no longer has exclusive access to OpenAI models. OpenAI is now available on AWS as well. And it's, and it cuts both ways. So on one hand, Microsoft, you know, they used to be the exclusive provider. If you're a sales guy at Microsoft on Azure, you're probably really excited to call somebody up and say, hey, you want to use GPT-5.5? We're the only place in town, like, like you should come over here. You should migrate more of your infrastructure.

• 6:18John Coogan?

  You should be using Azure. But it was probably frustrating because a lot of people say, no, we're locked into AWS. We are stuck in that cloud and we'd love to, but we'll just use the API directly or we'll do, we'll figure out some other workaround, but we're not moving for this.

• 6:31Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, or people could be like, yeah, we're, we're, we're open to trying it, but it'll take, you know, a, a couple of quarters realistically to get, to get ramped up.

• 6:39John Coogan?

  Yeah. And so from an Azure perspective, losing exclusivity is a negative, but from a business perspective, uh, the more growth for OpenAI is good for Microsoft's equity stake in the company. And so these two tensions, like the, the capital balance sheet side of the business versus the Azure sales and acceleration side of the business, like these two are at odds.

• 7:02Jordi Hays?

  Not to mention Copilot versus Codex.

• 7:04John Coogan?

  Sure. Yeah. And so these two, the, these two sides of the business are sort of, uh, butting up against each other and Satya Nadella ultimately has to go and, and, uh, you know, renegotiate the contract and they did. And it seems like they're in a good place because, uh, a lot of people were, were sort of saying like, oh, well, is this going to get messy? Is there some, going to be some lawsuit here? It seems like there was a very clean negotiation, renegotiation and, uh, they, OpenAI got rid of the AGI clause that allows them to, to stop, uh, sharing, uh, models, but they are sharing revenue.

• 7:33Jordi Hays?

  Basically the, the, I think 2032 end date.

• 7:36John Coogan?

  Yeah, is just the end.

• 7:37Jordi Hays?

  For the IP share.

• 7:38John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 7:38Jordi Hays?

  Instead of this like arbitrary.

• 7:40John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 7:41Jordi Hays?

  AGI.

• 7:42John Coogan?

  Uh, so over at Amazon, Amazon still, of course, the capex king, they topped the capex forecast, uh, but the, as scary as that would be, AWS is re-accelerating. And so that's very good news. So, uh, the stock moved slightly upwards. Uh, Q1 2026 sales for Amazon overall were a 181.5 billion for the quarter, for the quarter. They're, they're like on track to make a trillion in revenue soon. Up 17% year over year, beating expectations. AWS is expected to see 25% growth. That was the expectation, 25%. That's sort of where they've been. They came in at 28%. So they beat on AWS growth and that's really, really important, especially for their scale. This was very good news. Uh, the ads business is

• 8:24John Coogan?

  still cooking, uh, churned out $17.2 billion in revenue and the chips business just crossed 20 billion run rate, which is very, very good. And they have big deals. AWS is in this interesting position, less of this like Google pure play, full stack and more focused on, uh, Working with both OpenAI and Anthropic at this point. And so that all justifies more investments in Tranium and AI infrastructure broadly. And the market seems to like it. Huge capex numbers, but reasonable response from the market and the stock. So Meta, Meta had a rough go. Huge drop, nearly 10% down following earnings. It's sort of jumping up and down now, but the core business was extremely strong. So Q1 revenue was 56.3 billion, up 33% year over year.

• 9:08John Coogan?

  So high growth for the overall business. Ad impressions rose 19%. Average price per ad rose 12%. They raised the capex outlook from this. They have this range. It's within $10 billion of 125. They added 10 billion to both. So instead of saying, hey, we'll be between 115 and 135. Now they're saying we're going to be between 125 and 145. Will they actually get more compute for that? Or is that just a reflection of rising prices for all the inputs that go into compute spending? That's a big debate because there's one bull case where, oh, they're optimistic. They're going to buy more compute. But it's like, no, there's a possibility they're just spending more to get the same amount of compute as they thought. But the big problem for shareholders, the big answer is it's not as clean of a.

• 9:52Jordi Hays?

  Can you imagine, just take one second and imagine that Meta is a private company and their pitch is that we make AI agents for selling products. They're at a $200 billion run rate, growing 33% a year. How's it price? 20 trillion?

• 10:09John Coogan?

  Probably.

• 10:11Jordi Hays?

  With those operating margins?

• 10:12John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 10:13Jordi Hays?

  Joking. It truly is one of the most incredible businesses.

• 10:17John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 10:17Jordi Hays?

  Of all time, but.

• 10:19John Coogan?

  They don't have the cloud.

• 10:20Jordi Hays?

  People are, yeah, yeah, they don't have, they don't have the cloud thing. He's kind of acting like the most AGI pilled CEO, like, like hyperscaler CEO, right?

• 10:30John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 10:30Jordi Hays?

  He was talking about like, basically talking about like RSI on the earnings call. He's like, it's not just about like coding, you know, coding. Like he really seemingly believes and he doesn't want to be in a position where someone else has actual superintelligence and he does not.

• 10:48John Coogan?

  And so.

• 10:48Jordi Hays?

  And, and that's just like a little bit too fuzzy because when you look in the rest of the market right now, it's like productivity tools.

• 10:54John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 10:55Jordi Hays?

  Right? And so the market just like can't really read into it.

• 10:58John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 10:59Jordi Hays?

  And they're just kind of like not even giving him full credit for the business that he has.

• 11:03John Coogan?

  Yeah, and I forget if he's ever mentioned the idea of of selling tokens, selling AI infrastructure, getting in the cloud market, but it's way easier for an AWS.

• 11:13Jordi Hays?

  He kind of loosely mentioned that last year when he was like starting to ramp stuff up, like basically saying like, maybe we could do this.

• 11:21John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 11:22Jordi Hays?

  At some point.

• 11:23John Coogan?

  Yeah, this is way easier to justify the the capex at Amazon when you say, oh, well, like, you know, if, you know, regardless of how this market plays out, maybe Anthropic takes some of the compute, maybe OpenAI takes the compute, maybe there's a whole bunch of new AI labs that take compute, maybe we'll use it for our services, our own models. If models commoditize, it's still valuable. If they don't, it's still valuable. There's a whole bunch of different ways to to shift that capex around and justify it. Meta, it's got to show up in the AI figures. It's got to show up in the ad business, at least right now. And so there's there are questions about how the big capex spend feeds back into cash flow. When the company doesn't have a platform with big enterprise AI contracts, massive

• 12:07John Coogan?

  RPO figures, there's not an easy place to just like stuff compute necessarily and at least get, you know, a market standard return on investment. Of course, they could spin up reselling, they could become a neo cloud or something like that, but at their scale, it's a it's a whole new host of challenges if they go that direction. And I think that that's not the plan. I think you're you're dialing into it that they are in fact recursive self improvement pilled at this point. The other sort of tremor in the system was the fact that daily active people, which is something that they were it's not users anymore, it's DAP, daily active people, declined sequentially since the first time that Meta began reporting

• 12:47John Coogan?

  the metrics. So less people were using Meta platforms this quarter than previously. But they had some. Good explanations for it. They said that there were internet disruptions in Iran and WhatsApp restrictions in Russia. And so this was not representative of a real change in internet user behavior. And I think we all recognize that that is reality in the sense that there's not some up and coming social network that's eating Meta Platforms' family of apps lunch, right? Like, the TikTok threat came and sort of went. The Snapchat threat came and sort of went.

• 13:22Jordi Hays?

  Sora.

• 13:23John Coogan?

  Sora came and went, right? And so there was a different post I saw that social media use is declining, especially under young people, but it was already so high, it's not really showing up in the data.

• 13:36Jordi Hays?

  It will truly be insane if we get this new alien technology. We get LLMs, which in digital form can convince you that they're a person.

• 13:47John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 13:47Jordi Hays?

  And we end up getting no new big social platforms.

• 13:50John Coogan?

  That just strengthened the current ones.

• 13:52Jordi Hays?

  Well, yeah, no, I mean, I think that's the base case right now, but it's still wild. I think you would expect, I think, again, if you rewound to like 2020 and you said, hey, we're going to have this technology where you can effectively have a digital twin of yourself, you would think that somebody would figure out some new.

• 14:07John Coogan?

  Yeah, maybe. I don't know. I continue to think it just strengthens the incumbents, Roblox, Instagram, WhatsApp, Facebook. Like, these platforms will just get more content on them that will probably be LLM-generated, LLM-enhanced. Even if it's not LLM-written or developed, it's, you know, a creator taking less time doing other boring things and spending more time on their core output. So we'll keep tracking it. So overall, what did we learn this earnings season? One possible takeaway is that there's a little bit of a fracturing in the overall AI narrative. So the AI narrative over the last 12 months has basically been like, say, the biggest number, biggest capex number,

• 14:50John Coogan?

  biggest deals, just grow, grow, grow. Now... Every hyperscaler reports a big CapEx number, but each company does have a different story. So Google's the full stack platform. Microsoft's focused on enterprise adoption and distribution. Amazon's most aggressive on infrastructure and partnerships with OpenAI and Anthropic. They have the cleanest, less, it's a less competitive relationship with Anthropic and OpenAI because they don't have the DeepMind equivalent necessarily. Meta is all about ad optimization. And Meta is also this interesting, like, high-risk option on frontier AI. Like, it's possible that if TBD Labs, MSL, if that pays off, you wind up getting an OpenAI-sized or Anthropic-sized business out of it

• 15:34John Coogan?

  in the oligopoly world where they have a breakthrough. They get to something that's 5-5 or 4-7 level, and then they're competing at an equal level and they're playing in that oligopoly. And so, like, the Meta traders are sort of, or the investors are sort of weighing both of those sides. You have a very solid ads business, and then you have this call option on potential frontier AI, which is still early but showing some really solid signs. So, the market likes short-term revenue evidence right now, and there's still many strategies that will play out over the rest of the year. But this quarter was focused on, can you justify your CapEx this quarter? And so, we'll keep following it. Let's go over the timeline and see what people were saying.

• 16:19John Coogan?

  The headline numbers, of course, were huge cloud growth. AWS 28%, GCP 63%, Azure at 40%. Absolutely massive numbers. Remember, people were hoping for GCP to be at 40%, and it went up 63%, absolutely massive. AWS, people were hoping for 30, they got 28, not too bad. This poster, Ren is comparing the price-to-earnings multiples.

• 16:46John Coogan?

  Today versus the dot com boom. So today's mag four P E ratios, the companies that reported earnings, Meta's at 16x price to earnings, Google's at 17x, Amazon's at 24 and Microsoft's at 25 price to earnings ratio. Compare that to during the dot com. Microsoft is at 73x, Cisco is at 200x plus Yahoo is trading at 800x earnings. The NASDAQ as a whole traded at 200 times earnings during the peak of the dot com bubble. Today's bubble is trading at 16 to 25x earnings on companies generating hundreds of billions of dollars in real cash flow. Now they're drawing down on that cash flow, but even in some bizarre world where,

• 17:27John Coogan?

  you know, AI is a bubble and it's fake and we all go back to pencil and paper, we'll probably go back to digital advertising and spreadsheets in the cloud and, you know, SaaS and all of these companies will still benefit and be in fantastic position.

• 17:42Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, the only thing that's, you know, or one thing that's imperfect with these comparisons is when you look at like the peak, you can say like, okay, Meta, Google, Amazon and, and Microsoft have relatively reasonable P E ratios.

• 17:55John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 17:56Jordi Hays?

  But if you look at the rest, you look at all the companies that have been started in the last like five years, especially in the private markets that have been marked up from 20 to 100 to 500 to a billion and beyond. Many of them have absolutely no earnings.

• 18:11John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 18:11Jordi Hays?

  And so you have to look at like, maybe something more like a Yahoo as like a decent comp, right? Where Yahoo was trading at peak at 800x.

• 18:19John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 18:20Jordi Hays?

  And so.

• 18:20John Coogan?

  And there is some, there is some pushback in the, in the replies here. Reasonous four says AMD's at 130, Tesla's at 350, Palantir's at 220 and Intel is at 900 times earnings.

• 18:33Jordi Hays?

  I know. So it's like very, very convenient to just take the four of the greatest companies ever in the history of the world and say like, there's no bubble. Like they're, they're reasonably priced.

• 18:44John Coogan?

  Yeah. I think it is, it is, it is useful to go back to the fact that like there, there's, there's a lot of hype in tech, but what's driving the vast majority of the market cap right now is still fairly low P E companies. Like Intel is so much smaller on a market cap basis than Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, that even if you're overpaying on earnings for that, the overall market is anchored to a pretty decent. Earnings engine still, and that's like the bull case here.

• 19:15Jordi Hays?

  George Hatz is back with a white pill.

• 19:18John Coogan?

  What'd he say?

• 19:19Jordi Hays?

  May 1st, he says, AI will create jobs. Says, it's nice to see Jensen talk about this, and it's super obvious when you think about it. AI and immigration are fundamentally the same. There's new people showing up and hopefully everyone understands how and why immigration creates jobs. Wants are effectively unlimited. It's classic Jevon's paradox that if we make something more efficient, we end up using more of it. Or a cool aphorism I learned at Facebook, if you make the site 10% faster, people spend 5% more total time on it.

• 19:46John Coogan?

  He worked at Facebook for, he was like an intern.

• 19:49Jordi Hays?

  He's part of the machine. Now, just like you get the wah wah crying people about how immigration lowers wages for native born Americans, and we gotta keep the hardworking immigrants out because you have some right to be lazy or something. You'll get this about AI. AI will outcompete some humans at some jobs. But protectionism is for losers. The important thing is that the overall pie grows and inequality stays somewhat in check, not by redistribution, but by design. There will be more to do than ever before.

• 20:16John Coogan?

  More to do than ever before.

• 20:17Jordi Hays?

  Can we pull up this video of Jensen?

• 20:19John Coogan?

  Yeah, let's do it.

• 20:21Jordi Hays?

  In the production chat for you.

• 20:24John Coogan?

  Yo, you have it?

• 20:25Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, we can play it.

• 20:26John Coogan?

  All right. I'm excited for Eric Sufer's deep dive here. We'll get into that later.

• 20:30Jordi Hays?

  The Suferator?

• 20:33John Coogan?

  And reminder, we have the Isaacinator coming on in just seven minutes. Mike Isaac has been covering the Elon Musk versus.

• 20:41Jordi Hays?

  Do they do?

• 20:41John Coogan?

  Trial.

• 20:42Jordi Hays?

  Is it like a four day work week with trials?

• 20:45John Coogan?

  It is.

• 20:45Jordi Hays?

  Are they living in the future?

• 20:46John Coogan?

  It is, wait, wait, wait. So can, can, can we pull up this screenshot? Because, did you read Mike Isaac's full thread on, on his experience covering the trial? Did you read the whole thing? Cause he's been live tweeting it. And it's very funny because he will post, so we gotta zoom in here. This is a.

• 21:05Jordi Hays?

  Did you turn this into?

• 21:06John Coogan?

  I turned it into an infographic. So this is a, this is a minute by minute chronological log of off topic slash personal slash minor inconvenience moments. Because Mike Isaac will talk about, oh, Elon Musk just said this on the stage. Oh, the lawyer. Fired back with this, the jury said this, the judge said that, right? But then in between that, he has been logging very, very minor inconveniences that he's that he's experienced. So he talks about his lunch, the roasted tomato and corn pizza. He says he forgot a pillow for his bird to sit on.

• 21:42Jordi Hays?

  Wait, corn pizza?

• 21:44John Coogan?

  I don't know. He said he bought.

• 21:46Jordi Hays?

  That's a very Oakland thing.

• 21:47John Coogan?

  At sixteen oh seven forty-five, this is transcribed from X, so I think the Times or U T C or something. He brought a water bottle but forgot to fill it in the rush for a seat. Now he's increasingly thirsty during an intense moment of testimony. Someone's laptop suddenly blasted a loud YouTube video in the gallery. This is a garden hose nozzle, it said, courtroom mishap. So he's going through it all. It's very fun to track his. And we'll, and we'll dig into his experience, both in the court and actually with what's going on with the case. But let's play this Jensen clip. This sounds fun.

• 22:21Speaker 02

  There's the things that, the things that are said are very counterproductive and in fact hurtful. On the one hand, maybe, maybe a scientist thinks that by warning people that A I is going to completely permeate and proliferate across radiology and therefore radiologists are going to get wiped out. On the one hand, that might be considered warning and therefore helpful, but in fact, the counter would have been hurtful. If we convinced everybody not to be radiologists and we now need radiologists, that actually is hurtful to society. It is hurtful that we convince all the young college graduates to not be software engineers and it turns out United States need more software engineers than ever. That's hurtful.

• 23:06Speaker 02

  And so we have to be mindful of how we communicate the importance of this technology and what it's able to do to advocate for policy and advocate for guardrails on the one hand, on the other hand, scaring people with things like saying nonsensical things, which are not going to happen, that this is an existential threat to humanity. There's twenty percent chance that is existential. That's ridiculous, that it's going to wipe out fifty percent of, of, of new college grad jobs, that it's going to completely destroy democracy. I mean, these kind of comments are not helpful. They're not based, they're, they're made by.

• 23:50John Coogan?

  He's sub tweeting in real life. He's not vague posting, he's sub tweeting. Uh, I, I do think the 50% numbers are so funny because it's like 50 50 is like the most neutral you can be about some prediction. It feels like, I mean, I get that it's not in, in that case, it's like 50% of jobs. But whenever you issue like a 50 50 proclamation, it sort of tells you nothing. Like we were looking at like the prediction markets on the trial and we were like, oh, it's 50 50. Okay. So that actually doesn't give me any information about what's going to happen in the future. And it's very easy to make a prediction that's like, oh, I predict this will happen 50 50. And then if it doesn't happen, you can be like, well, yeah, 50% chance it wasn't going to happen. Like I had it really high that it wasn't going to happen. And then you can also say, you know, I predicted it.

• 24:29Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. It's so, it is, it is truly universal when we talk to these companies that are building AI, AI products or selling AI products. It seems like the ambition level in every single industry is just going up. Even, even Gabe from Rogo was saying, yeah, there's an opportunity to cut costs or there's an opportunity to get aggressive and like take market share. And, and he said, like a lot of firms are saying like, let's just do more work. Let's grow, let's grow our revenue. Let's take on more clients, right? It's harder and harder to, to doom about the job market.

• 25:01John Coogan?

  Yeah. Do you need to doom about the task market?

• 25:05Jordi Hays?

  It's over for tasks.

• 25:07John Coogan?

  Tasks are getting automated. No, it's serious. Like there are tasks that like the reading of the x-ray or whatever it was, the, the radiologist scan. What, what do they actually read? Is that an x-ray that they're looking for tumors in? You know what I'm talking about, right? The famous Hinton.

• 25:23Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. I don't know if it's technically an x-ray.

• 25:25John Coogan?

  It's not, right? It's a CAT scan or something.

• 25:27Jordi Hays?

  It's some scan where you can look.

• 25:27John Coogan?

  Yeah. They do a scan and of course image generation and image models are very good at detecting cancers. But that is just one of several tasks, many tasks that a radiologist does throughout the day. And so radiologists are currently making more money than ever and they are in more demand than ever. And I was telling you before the show about, uh, truck drivers. They don't just drive the truck. There was a survey that said 70% of them carry weapons because they are effectively, they are security guards for the truck, uh, as well as probably a bunch of other things that you don't think about. Light repairs on the truck. Uh, you know, stopping for different things, rearranging things in the back, making sure that the load is like balanced and whatnot.

• 26:06Jordi Hays?

  If you're driving with kids in the car.

• 26:07John Coogan?

  It's not purely just, yes.

• 26:08Jordi Hays?

  If you're driving with kids in the car and you drive by a big truck on a road trip, you can go like this.

• 26:12John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 26:13Jordi Hays?

  And then.

• 26:14John Coogan?

  That's another thing that the, that the self-driving truck needs to do.

• 26:16Jordi Hays?

  A computer could never look out the window, see some kids in the car and, and honk.

• 26:20John Coogan?

  But, well, yeah, I mean, we'll, we'll see. Data center beautification, uh, and he summed it up, uh, perfectly. He says, make data centers aesthetically beautiful. And so people have been quote tweeting, posting, riffing on this, uh, sharing different ideas. More people would be pro data center if every data center had a beautiful, open to the public heated pool. That's an interesting twist. Uh, full water slide. I think, uh, half pipe is a big idea. Monster truck rally constantly going on. These are ways to, you know, win people over, sort of a nitro circus going on at every data center.

• 26:59Jordi Hays?

  Monster truck rally on the roof of a data center.

• 27:01John Coogan?

  Yeah. Sort of a universal basic nitro circus. So you get, are you familiar with nitro circus? Are you not, are, are, is this a three fingers moment for you? Or you're like, ah, I'm familiar.

• 27:11Jordi Hays?

  No, I'm just imagining they're building a ramp.

• 27:13John Coogan?

  Just say you've never actually been to nitro circus.

• 27:15Jordi Hays?

  I'm imagining they're building the like dirt bike ramps over the data center.

• 27:19John Coogan?

  Exactly.

• 27:20Jordi Hays?

  Backflipping over the data.

• 27:21John Coogan?

  Exactly. Julie Young shares a trick, this one neat trick that Los Angeles uses to hide oil deckers. Uh, we have a few oil derricks in LA that are disguised as synagogues. They are literally just sitting in the middle of the city, lol. Surprisingly few people are aware. There's a number of data centers that are disguised in Los Angeles as well. Usually you can tell because there's no windows in the building, but these exist in downtown, usually for edge computing, for, uh, like the content delivery network. You put store in your Netflix videos there, that type of stuff. Not doing training runs, not gigawatt clusters.

• 27:55Jordi Hays?

  Just then, skin exams are getting automated.

• 27:57John Coogan?

  Oh, yes.

• 27:59Jordi Hays?

  This is a very cool product.

• 28:00John Coogan?

  Okay. Break it down for us. Let's pull it up.

• 28:03Jordi Hays?

  We have video here.

• 28:04John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 28:05Jordi Hays?

  I think anybody that's been to a dermatologist, it's like looking for potential, you know, skin cancers, things like that, abnormalities, has had the experience of like the, you know, the, when you're, you know, that video or the meme where the, the guy's like walking through security and the, and the security guy is just like, you know, does this like really

• 28:26John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 28:27Jordi Hays?

  pat down. It's like, that's basically what like a lot of dermatologists are doing where they just like take a quick glance and they're like, oh yeah, like, looks good.

• 28:34John Coogan?

  Yeah, they might be busy, they might be sleepy.

• 28:35Jordi Hays?

  Come back in like a couple of years.

• 28:36John Coogan?

  But this robot.

• 28:37Jordi Hays?

  And so a robot that just does it like really, really precisely, consistently, ideally, uh, hopefully, hopefully a lot more excessively. I can see this making a lot of sense. And then you actually, it doesn't even replace the job of a doctor.

• 28:50John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 28:51Jordi Hays?

  It just helps them, um, speed up the process.

• 28:53John Coogan?

  Uh, where, where is this company? What stage are they? Do they have to go through FDA medical, uh, device approval process? That could be a couple of years maybe, but this seems like once you get it, uh, through, it's going to be massively successful. Um, I wonder, I wonder where they are in the FDA process. Hopefully they can move along quickly. Um, Arc Prize put out an update on Arc AGI V three, which Tyler, are you still on the human leaderboard for that or?

• 29:21Jordi Hays?

  I don't think I'm on the leaderboard anymore. That was still early on. Like I think there's actually more games now.

• 29:26John Coogan?

  Roasted. Uh, well, Arc AGI V three has been very tough for even the most frontier AI models, but the good folks over at Arc Prize have benchmarked the two latest and greatest AI models from OpenAI and Anthropic. GPT five point five scored zero point four three percent. Opus four point seven scored zero point

• 29:51Jordi Hays?

  That's state of the art.

• 29:52John Coogan?

  one eight percent. It is, it is state of the art. They, this is the weird thing about these, uh, these Arc AGI tests is that they, they start with such a low baseline, zero percent, one percent. And then they start, they start shooting up as the models get more capable. But it is very interesting and reassuring to see these powerful models that you sometimes hear these narratives, it can do everything. And then, eh, there's something that, you know, to, to continue working for, to look forward to in the future. Uh, there's more applications here. And so they found three total failure modes, uh, true local effect, false world model, wrong level of abstraction from training data, solve the level, but didn't reinforce the reward. And so the Arc Prize account goes through.

• 30:33John Coogan?

  A little bit of what's going on when an AI model tries to play Arc AGI V3, which is basically a 2D video game, simple enough for any human to progress through, but increasingly difficult for AI models.

• 30:47Jordi Hays?

  Okay.

• 30:48John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 30:48Jordi Hays?

  We got to talk about one of the most exciting new products created.

• 30:52John Coogan?

  What's that?

• 30:52Jordi Hays?

  In the last 100 years.

• 30:53John Coogan?

  Tell me.

• 30:54Jordi Hays?

  According to Katie at Business Insider, Amazon will now create an AI podcast.

• 30:59John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 30:59Jordi Hays?

  About their products where two AI hosts discuss the products and take your questions as if it's a call-in show.

• 31:05John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 31:06Jordi Hays?

  Let's play.

• 31:07John Coogan?

  We don't need to play this one. This one is so rude, but you can imagine the type of products that people are generating AI podcasts for. Only the silliest things will be generated. I don't know if people want to listen to a full podcast about every product they buy on Amazon, but you have had some very strong opinions about paper towels. You wanted paper towels from like the 1950s or something. Remember this whole thing?

• 31:31Jordi Hays?

  Well, I just wanted a filter to be able to buy, only shop for things on Amazon.

• 31:36John Coogan?

  Well, now, instead of a filter, you can listen to an hour-long podcast about every possible SKU, and then you can make the most determined decision available. Go enjoy your weekend. Enjoy your Friday. We will see you on Monday. Goodbye.

• 31:52Jordi Hays?

  We love you.

• 31:52John Coogan?

  Flashbang!