LA Riots, Trump vs Newsom, & Ray Dalio Predicts Civil War | The Tom Bilyeu Show

Tom and co-host Drew taking listeners deep into the volatile landscape of American current events, zeroing in on the LA immigration riots that have dominated headlines. With tensions flaring between national and local leadership—Trump pushing for a hardline federal response, Newsom resisting—the conversation explores the patterns of civil unrest and political division that have marked recent American history. Tom and Drew set the stage by wrestling with the disconnect between lived experience on the ground and the dramatized narrative pushed by media and politicians, and they unpack the psychology and historical context that frame our national sense of crisis. Join Tom and Drew as they analyze pattern recognition in societal upheavals, the rise and repetition of riots, and the role that both media and political actors play in stoking societal fear and division. They candidly debate law and order, the line between peaceful protest and violence, and how responses from leadership can either escalate or temper unrest. It's a raw, unfiltered look at American fault lines through the eyes of two thoughtful centrists with sharply different perspectives on what’s at stake and where we go from here. SHOWNOTES 00:00 Random kickoff, LA immigration riots, Trump vs. Newsom 00:52 Media narratives vs. lived experience; historical cycles of riots 02:30 Deep dives: Creature from Jekyll Island and AI, preview of upcoming Ray Dalio civil war content 03:10 Tom’s “inside the car” vs. “drone's eye view” analogy on threat perception 05:12 Debt, wealth inequality, and existential threats to American stability 06:10 Examining news, protest origins in Paramount, media weaponization 06:36 Role of Trump, National Guard, and police statements 08:09 Agitation, escalation, law-and-order arguments 09:11 Tom on zero tolerance for violence, personal property, and police response 12:28 Drew on distinctions between protest and violence, the need for context 13:19 Discussion of left-wing agitators and policing dynamics 14:40 Blocking streets, crowd management, protest policing strategies 15:21 Debate on in-the-moment criminal crackdown vs. escalation risks 18:24 Societal order, community safety, and escalating force 19:30 Defining peaceful protest; competing moral frameworks for resistance 22:33 Tom lays out the slippery slope to civil war when national values diverge 24:49 The debate over armed vs. unarmed resistance, the nature of violence 25:05 Political theater in raids and the true nature of immigration enforcement 27:27 Discussion on California as a political flashpoint, media tactics 29:50 Political capital, incentives, and why the reactions might matter more 30:59 Are “let it burn” tactics viable? Drew and Tom’s fundamental disagreement FOLLOW TOM Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter: https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu CHECK OUT OUR SPONSORS Vital Proteins: Get 20% off by going to ⁠https://www.vitalproteins.com⁠ https://www.vitalproteins.com and entering promo code IMPACT at check out ButcherBox: New users that sign up for ButcherBox will receive their choice between steak tips, salmon, or chicken breast in every box for a year + $20 off their first box at ⁠https://butcherbox.com/impact⁠ https://butcherbox.com/impact Monarch Money: Use code THEORY at ⁠https://monarchmoney.com⁠ https://monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year! Shopify: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at ⁠https://shopify.com/impact⁠ https://shopify.com/impact iTrust Capital: Use code IMPACTGO when you sign up and fund your account to get a $100 bonus at ⁠https://www.itrustcapital.com/tombilyeu⁠ https://www.itrustcapital.com/tombilyeu Jerry: Stop needlessly overpaying for car insurance - download the Jerry app or head to ⁠https://jerry.ai/impact⁠ https://jerry.ai/impact Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices https://megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Tom Bilyeu?

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• 1:08Speaker 01

  You hit us with a pinprick. You know, we hit back 10 times harder. They're not going anywhere. I promise, you've tried for a decade now. It's not working. I knew exactly what I was getting into. I'm damn proud of it. Everybody sucks. You suck. They suck. This guy sucks. That's not happening. This is not that show. This is the Dan Bongino Show. We bring receipts and facts. Go to rumble.com/bongino or listen on Apple, Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts.

• 1:38Tom Bilyeu?

  L.A. immigration riots kicked off and were going strong for days. Trump says it would be a good idea to arrest Newsom. Newsom tells him to come and do it already. Cash Patel says there's no videos of Epstein's victims. Penn Bondi, however, says there's tens of thousands of them. Someone doesn't know how to count. And Ray Dalio drops an article titled "Civil War." Drew. This feels like a rerun of the 2020 Summer of Love, where things are burning and people are calling it mostly peaceful. I get that we're always being spun. This is a political game, all of that. But it does admittedly get a little exhausting in terms of, rather than people actually laying out their arguments from a position of cause and effect,

• 2:21Tom Bilyeu?

  it's always fighting to capture people by the emotions and lead them instead of down a path that is designed to get people to a stated end goal, where it's like, we can all agree, yes, that is where we want to end up. Instead of that, it's just pure emotion. And I was interviewed today about the economy and where things are going. And I realized, man, I'm like really painting this incredibly dark picture of where this goes. Because right now, I feel like I am on a train with no brakes. And given the physics of the human mind, the physics of the political system and the physics of the monetary system,

• 3:04Tom Bilyeu?

  it just feels like conflict is the only conceivable destination. It, something would have to come out of left field to stop this.

• 3:14Speaker 02

  It's one thing where we're getting forced to have conflict, or this is something that's been happening for the last hundreds of years. I think this recent example is a bit more manufactured than actually what's happening. So let's like level set really quick. Over the weekend in Paramount, California, there was a protest that erupted. That's where we saw a lot of the tear gas getting released. That's where we saw the Waymo's were on fire. And then the following day, the 8th, the 9th, that Saturday, that Sunday, LA protests happened in different parts of the country, of the city in response to that. So then the next day, there was a protest in downtown LA. That's where some, we saw some of the looting of the Apple Store and another store. LAPD was called. That's when the Marines were called in as well. Sunday, there was a little bit of protest as well, but we haven't seen any crazy footage.

• 3:59Speaker 02

  It kind of died down. There was a protest Monday in LAX. But as of right now, it seems like people are taking their foot off the brake. And now it's kind of, we're taking a break.

• 4:09Tom Bilyeu?

  Foot off the gas.

• 4:09Speaker 02

  Or taking their foot off the gas, excuse me. And then until June 14th, this weekend, where there's supposed to be another national organized immigration protest. So just hearing the news over the weekend, level setting, putting all those things together. What do you think is happening in culture right now, specifically for these protests? Some calling them riots.

• 4:27Tom Bilyeu?

  I think the honest answer is that the country is divided at the extremes, that the extremes control the agenda. And for a very long time now, the two parties have been pulling away from each other. And the pulling away has accelerated dramatically in the last, call it decade. And when I nest that inside of the debt crisis that we're in. When I nest that inside of the AI revolution that's coming, that's going to upend jobs. Ray Dalio wrote an article that he dropped this week, just titled Civil War. And man, I really, I don't want to play that card as something that is sensational. So I play that card as something that's merely directional.

• 5:11Tom Bilyeu?

  I'm not saying like Alex Jones would have you believe that it's actually going to happen this weekend. But I do think that the fences of our democracy are being tested. And that we've got people going up to check for weaknesses in the system. To see if they can topple it over. I think that there, there is a derangement that happens when a society goes well for too long. You get to the point where people begin to think that meals just show up on their table magically. That air conditioning works magically, that roads are magical things that are manna from heaven and they just fall. And that you don't have to earn a modern civilization.

• 5:55Tom Bilyeu?

  They have no context for something moving backwards. They have no sense of what it looks like when a country goes broke. They have no sense of what it looks like when a company goes into open revolution. Revolution becomes like this buzzword, this cool thing that people want to somehow be a part of. With absolutely no view on what it would be like to live through a level of disruption like that. They think what they're doing is tearing the system down, giving a finger to the man, upending the tables, that they're going to end up on top. That all of the people that have been historically marginalized to use a very.

• 6:35Tom Bilyeu?

  Weaponized word that all those marginalized people are suddenly going to have a good time of it. And that's not how it works. What ends up happening is one elite group gets replaced by the other, that there is massive bloodshed, economic horror show. And then finally, people get to the point where they they just cannot bear the death anymore. And then the culture resets. History has shown that you actually have to go through that because of debt. And I don't want to make this about debt. So I'll just say that moments like this come around every time you get late stage empire. And I know whatever 18 months ago, this was like, everybody was obsessed. Like, when was the last time that you thought about the fall of the Roman Empire?

• 7:17Tom Bilyeu?

  And then very quickly, like memes do, it became sort of cliche and we all moved on. But the reality is, this is what happens. Like, you get late stage empire, and

• 7:28Tom Bilyeu?

  the culture loses faith in the values that got it where it was, which is almost always discipline, hard work, delayed gratification, like all of the things that we're not willing to do anymore. And you sit in that abundance long enough, and you get to the point where, for a whole host of reasons, including you have economic weakness, and so you've got people that won't take jobs. So you want to bring in immigrants who will work for less. I mean, it's like, literally, this thing repeats and repeats and repeats. And then you begin to learn that when you don't have shared values within your borders, that you tear yourself apart from within. And so it's like, when I look at it through that lens of the

• 8:11Tom Bilyeu?

  the repeating cycle of the fall of empires, and the way that it's usually on the back of, a technological revolution, AI, economic problems in terms of getting overextended with debt, we're 36 trillion in debt, having open borders or something close to it, having a culture that spawns weak men. It's like,

• 8:35Tom Bilyeu?

  A tale as old as time. And so I'm looking at this and going, look, you can brush off the, what the LA immigration riots and be like, all right, listen, at the end of the day, is that really the straw that's going to break the camel's back? No, probably not. But when you start to go, wait a second, people placed cinder blocks on the street on purpose so that they could be broken and turned into rocks. Wait a second, there are pamphlets all over the ground that tell people exactly how to riot well. Wait a second, there are, there's some organization that's dropping off face masks. So people are putting money behind this stuff. Now you do that when you have an agenda. And is it a confused agenda? Does this sort

• 9:20Tom Bilyeu?

  of late stage empire just bring this out in people where it's this really muddied, muddled thing where some people feel guilty, some people think that, again, this is manna from heaven and that everybody should have access to it and we shouldn't have to be disciplined?

• 9:39Tom Bilyeu?

  I don't know, because I haven't thankfully lived through one of these before. But the more I look at history, the more I'm like, don't brush this moment off because directionally, we're going in a direction that ends with open revolt, rebellion, collapse. So none of those things strike me as good.

• 10:00Speaker 02

  In physics, they say like, every force has an equal and opposite force. And I think that it's very paramount to bring that up right now, because I think that these riots are the exact opposite force of Trump's deportation style. I think when Obama deported nine million people, nobody blinked an eye because they were all in detention centers by the border, sent back. And I think with Trump weaponizing ICE, weaponizing the military, bringing them into sanctuary cities, when Texas is the number two place of immigrants in the whole nation, but there's been one Texas state sign overturned, he wanted to throw the military in Chicago, in California, in New York, it seemed like this is a politically motivated game in order to get his base rallied and say, okay, we're going after those immigrants and if you stop us, you hate America.

• 10:45Speaker 02

  Where they're not going into detention centers and trying to get illegal immigrants broken out. They're not going to South Central in the gangs pulling people out. They're going to Home Depots. They're pulling people out of schools. They're deporting people who have jobs here. And the worst of worst of them, they're not coming to America to become a teacher to turn their life around. The worst worst of them are coming to America to continue their criminal empire. So it's one of those things where we want to act like we're doing this in a virtuous way. And at the top, you know, immigration is precious and you should respect rules and respect law and order. You're absolutely right. All those things are true. But going into schools and taking moms from kids and saying, we're doing this so that way this is going to help the country. No, that's a cruel way to do that. And I think

• 11:26Speaker 02

  that there's a better way to do that. So people who are powerless, who aren't in Senate, who can't overturn the executive orders, who can't stop those deportations, they now rally up and they want to be the resistance force that's pushing against those people in those tanks, in those military, military vehicles. And that's where we're having this disconnect. So to act like ICE was just walking down the street trying to rile up some gang members and some dude threw a brick at him and started a war. It's, we're starting at, at question seven, instead of starting at the beginning, like, what caused this riot? Why do you think these people are doing this? Do you think that people are just bored and they're going outside their house like, I'm bored, let me go break some shit? I think that we need to start talking about the causes in that first domino that falls, instead of judging the pile of dominos on the floor and calling it a mess.

• 12:11Tom Bilyeu?

  Man, you make some really good points, but I think that we're gonna pretty violently disagree on this one. So this will be fun. Okay, so first, the things that I, that you're saying that I think are really brilliant. There is a way to do this that agitates, and there is a way to do this that is more calming. And the fact that Obama was deporter in chief, and yet did not create this kind of backlash certainly says something. Now, I think that we were certainly in a different time politically when he was in office. There wasn't this kind of divisiveness. And just as a person, he did not elicit the kind of response that people get from Trump. I think that Call it what you will, but there are people that have an allergic reaction to Trump.

• 12:56Tom Bilyeu?

  So, uh, Trump derangement syndrome, obviously is a word that everybody uses. I don't say it to be inflammatory. I just say it to signal that there are some people that no matter what he says or does. It's bad, it's Hitler, it's fascism. There's no way that they're going to be cool with it. Yeah. Uh, now if the reports can be believed, according to Tom Homan, um, they have tried to get people at detention centers. And certainly California is not cooperating and they say, nope, you may not pick people up in the detention centers. According to Tom Homan, they are being forced to go out onto the streets and pick people up there. Now, is that true?

• 13:30Tom Bilyeu?

  I don't know, but from his own mouth, uh, he has said that they've reached out to Newsom, that they have said, hey, we would like to work within the system to pull people out of prisons, jails, detention centers and move them back. And they've said, no. Now, why they can't use the executive authority there? I don't know. So that one, I'll admit, I was like, okay, I'm going to need to look a little bit closer on that one to see if they had that card and didn't want to play it. And now they are playing a political game. Trump is an extremely astute political operative. And so, yeah, I have no doubt that he is playing some game, trying to, uh, make a point.

• 14:11Tom Bilyeu?

  I don't think in any way, shape or form, he likes feeling like, um,

• 14:18Tom Bilyeu?

  any governor doesn't dance to his tune, let alone Governor Newsom, who obviously he's got beef with, and they've been going back and forth. Uh, he'd be a fool to think that Newsom isn't thinking about running, um, against the Democrat or the Republican party. Obviously Trump is not eligible, uh, for election. I would just like to remind everybody, and I'm very excited about that, lest that did not come across. Yep. Uh, so I, I don't doubt in any way, shape or form that there's, um, gamesmanship that's being played. But the overwhelming thing that I thought, watching all of this unfold, because you hear people like Karen Bass, I think Newsom said similar things, but you hear people saying like, well, everything was fine until you came in.

• 15:03Tom Bilyeu?

  And my thing is timeout. This is like saying, well, my kid was fine as long as I let them play on their iPad, eat ice cream and not go to bed. And it's only when I try to get them to do that, that they throw a fit. It's you can't allow people to break the law and expect to have law and order. And there's a reason that people were, I mean, you, you can go into a normal neighborhood now and find CVS just keeps everything locked behind the counter because people are just going in when you could take, if it was $999 or less, like you could just leave and you weren't going to be prosecuted. And so those kinds of policies have had tremendous impact on people going, oh, I can get away with

• 15:48Tom Bilyeu?

  this stuff. And so at some point, this is like super nanny territory where yes, when you go to put your kid to bed, they're going to cry and scream and freak out. And at some point, you just have to say, listen, there's a very knowable set of rules. We're going to adhere to those rules. We're going to be consistent, loving, but consistent. And Trump is not being loving, fine, but the goal should be consistency. But I don't even think he's being consistent. Quick break, but don't go anywhere. There's more to come after this short break from our sponsors. Luxury brands are not charging you more for better cashmere. You're paying for the storefront, the ad budget, the name on the tag, but Quince cuts all of that out.

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• 18:38Tom Bilyeu?

  All right, we're back. Let's get into it.

• 18:41Speaker 02

  Because the last championship winner, whether it's the Eagles or whatever team wins, they immediately go to the street, they immediately light things on fire. It's a shitty day for law enforcement that night. Everybody wakes up, goes back to work. So to say that the line is a car on fire in the middle of a city, I can bring up the Cincinnati Reds winning a championship, the Cardinals winning, and red state, blue state, uh, black people, white people, boys, girls, whatever like demographic you want to add into that, have excitedly celebrated something and it looked just as chaotic, it caused just as much property damage. So I do, I don't want to say that Karen Bass is the most best mayor. I'm definitely not Team California. I miss Jersey every day. However...

• 19:24Speaker 02

  To say that they didn't know how to maintain, it made Trump seem like the super nanny because he's stepping on their toes. He's saying, "I'm bringing the Marines there because you guys are letting this go too far." And Newsom, the governor, is saying, "We got it." Karen is saying, "We got it."

• 19:37Tom Bilyeu?

  But are you saying that we should just let them spaz?

• 19:40Speaker 02

  The spaz was contained, it was done, it was over. And then when you start militarizing people, now I'm shutting it down. Now you have those agitators that are going to say, "Okay, the military is coming, now I'm activated." So it's the same thing as, um, I'm trying to think of a good analogy. I'm trying to stay away from sports. But when one side decides, "Okay, I'm going to up the ante a little bit." The other side is naturally going to up the ante a little bit.

• 20:04Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah.

• 20:04Speaker 02

  And I was in downtown LA with my 13-year-old daughter last night on Saturday. I didn't see a cop drive past, I didn't feel threatened for my life. I was out there whistling, I was right by the convention center, corvined out. So to act like LA was just in fire, it looked like Gotham City, and Trump needed to do that, he didn't necessarily need to do that. Now, if you want to talk about how to police protests, how to police wild or group organizations, that's a different conversation, we could talk about that. But to say every time you see a group get rowdy and light a car on fire, that the National Guard needs to be called in, I can give you plenty of celebrations that had the same exact result, that the National Guard didn't need to come in, the next morning it was business as usual. Even though it was a cleanup, it was still property damage and things like that.

• 20:46Tom Bilyeu?

  Palmer Lucky was talking about this, and he said, "What we have here is basically a lack of shared values. We don't have agreement, this is literally you and I. We don't have an agreement on what is an acceptable way to protest, what is an acceptable way to celebrate, what is an acceptable way apparently to do a lot of things. If you light a car on fire, it is a riot. I don't give a fuck why you're lighting the car on fire. We now have a problem. If you are throwing rocks at a car, again, I don't give a fuck why you're doing it. We now have a problem." And so for me, it's like, having lived in LA as long as I've lived here, almost 31 years, I'm telling you, this shit is different. Like, right before I came down where the LA riots, and that was like, holy bejesus.

• 21:30Tom Bilyeu?

  I just could not fathom that you would get something like that. And then for...

• 21:37Tom Bilyeu?

  Almost thirty years, there was nothing. And then twenty twenty hit. And it was again like pandemonium. And it was so different all of a sudden. Shops burning, cars burning, uh, people all over in the streets. I'm buying a gun. It just felt different, man. And so that's when I was like, hold on a second. Like you cannot let people run riot on the streets like this. Like if people wanna protest a hundred percent, but it, there's a big difference between a peaceful protest and lighting shit on fire, um, threatening violence, being violent, like, and the, uh, the setting bricks on the street and stuff like that.

• 22:19Tom Bilyeu?

  Giving people flyers, telling them how to do it well, like that, that is something different, man. This is, this is manipulation because you know humans are manipulatable. This is getting people riled up because you, whatever. Oh my God, like the, the real language is the behind the scenes puppet master people, whether they think they have like a great agenda, whether they think that they're trying to bring a more loving and caring world. I don't give a fuck. They are manipulating people. They are trying to get them to act like this. And I'm saying we are living in a weird fucking era where people are leveraging that. The fact that they can mobilize people, the fact that we are so divided, using social media to get people into their echo chambers, to push people farther and farther apart, not being aware of the fact that we are in a populist moment, which means everybody's riled up.

• 23:04Tom Bilyeu?

  Every team wants to see the other team slapped in the mouth. They wanna see people be punished for the situation that they're in. And everybody thinks that the other side is a fucking asshole and they need to be punished. And so when you step into something like that and you're, uh, Newsom or you're, uh, Mayor Bass, like you've got to let people know, hey, this is what is acceptable and this is what's not acceptable. And dude, when you've got people like burning Waymos, pulling them over, smashing them out, lighting them on fire, which what the fuck does Waymo have to do with it? Literally nothing. Doing donuts around it in the middle of the street, blocking freeways like I'm not even gonna get into the like waving flags of another country that will get there.

• 23:45Tom Bilyeu?

  But right now, I'm just saying you cannot let people act a fool like that. And so if like as a an American citizen, forget the fact that I'm an Angelino. As an American citizen, I'm like, what the fuck? So if Newsom is going to lock it down, great, I would love that. I don't want to have to have the pissing contest between the president and the governor. The mayor is sitting there telling people, hey, if you vandalize or whatever, we are gonna find you. How about you stop them? Like this weekend's gonna be a test. Everybody knows it's coming. So what are they gonna do? Like, these things get broadcast on social media. It's not like there's a big mystery when where these things are going to happen.

• 24:29Tom Bilyeu?

  And yet they're letting things get unhinged. You've got people.

• 24:32Speaker 02

  So so with that, right? Knowing that it's coming, knowing that it's on there, you're you're calling out the burning of the cars, you're calling out the bricks, you're calling out the the response. Do you have a problem with tear gas being used on people? Do you have a problem with rubber bullets? Organizing on the street facing off?

• 24:49Tom Bilyeu?

  Uh, facing off carries a lot of weight. So if they're facing off, like I legitimately think that it's about to break into violence. Yeah, tear gas to break it up.

• 24:58Speaker 02

  Well, we'll do the the Trump quote, you spit, I hit. So when they face off and somebody spits on the cop, the cop has a green light to hit him with a stick, hit him with the baton.

• 25:06Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, that's aggressive. I'll I'll admit. Am I here for you spit, I hit? No.

• 25:15Speaker 02

  Okay, so if I'm hearing you correctly, you think that the police should be monitoring, but allowing the people to organize, move freely, do the things that they want?

• 25:24Tom Bilyeu?

  Yes, and you've got to give them some grace. So somebody acting a fool and spitting, it would just be way too easy to cause an escalation when you have a paid agitator that comes in and spits on somebody that's not gonna hurt you. But if they throw something at you, it now is on.

• 25:39Speaker 02

  And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make is that while we were largely talking about what happened Friday as the LA riots, again, there was three other protests that happened the next day, not nearly as much coverage because it's people walking, people waving flags, people with signs. And when we see those protests, they're, at this point, they're a little bit boring. They're not fun. We want to see somebody burn. We want to see somebody fight. We want to see the media, if it bleeds, it leads, right? We need to go, we need to lead with that. So we keep having these cycles of like, well, look at this is cars are on fire and ALA is descending into total chaos. If you go outside, 97% of Angelenos didn't even run into the protest. The other 3%

• 26:16Tom Bilyeu?

  Interesting. Drew, recently I thought of an analogy that now really helps me understand the difference when I'm talking to somebody. There's two levels of analysis for society. Think of society as a group of people in a car. There's what's happening in the car, and then there's pulling outside the car and seeing where the car is headed. I'm outside the car and I see the car is about to drive off a cliff. That's what I believe. You may also be outside the car, but you don't see that, you don't think that the car is about to drive off a cliff.

• 26:46Speaker 02

  Are we still talking about that? Are we talking about the immigration rights?

• 26:48Tom Bilyeu?

  We're talking about immigration.

• 26:49Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 26:50Tom Bilyeu?

  So when I see the, what's going on here, I'm not in the car. I'm up high. I'm looking at it and I'm like, oh, this is all a part of a bigger moment that repeats over and over and over and over and over in history. And it's revolt, civil war, revolution, or external war. And they happen at this time in the debt cycle, which of course is why you were asking about that. But just looking at what's happening in the car, yeah, it doesn't seem like that big of a deal. We go back to business as usual. But take the riots in, whatever, 92, and next riots are 2020.

• 27:35Tom Bilyeu?

  Then we go from 2020 to 2025 and we get the next batch of riots. That's speeding up a lot. And what I'm saying is, America is being torn apart. And when I pull outside the car, I'm like, oh, this keeps escalating. And you sound dumb, not you, me, but those who say things like, oh, there might be a civil war coming. They sound dumb until it kicks off. And I was thinking today, I was like, I'm gonna call nine out of the next one civil wars. I get that. I get that the prediction will hopefully fail to come true.

• 28:19Tom Bilyeu?

  And that I'm just being overly paranoid. But never been paranoid before. I can feel, I could document the beats that have created a feeling of change in me. This isn't just an emotional thing. This is like, the more I do deep dives, and the deep dives for me are strictly about creating cause and effect. The more I feel like Peter Attia, if you guys don't know him, he was on the show. He's actually a medical doctor. That's what he's famous for. But he was an oncologist who just was so burnt out. It was like, I can't do this anymore. You just watch people die all the time. It's like, I can't keep doing this.

• 28:59Tom Bilyeu?

  And so for a while, he went in and worked in mathematics and axiary science. And he was at a bank and they were looking at subprime mortgages. And he runs all the facts and he goes, um, America's gonna go bankrupt. The, the economy's going to implode. It is a mathematical certainty. And this was like in 2006. And so his job was to tell the banks, okay, you've been doing this thing for the last, whatever, 10 years. There's no way out. You are going to die. And now it's just about watching it play out.

• 29:43Tom Bilyeu?

  Same thing when you take, he obviously ended up being right, by the way, this is the 2008 collapse. And he was like, it was so surreal to just see the numbers and be like, oh, there's, there is no way out. Yeah. So I'll give people a stat.

• 30:01Tom Bilyeu?

  12 out of the last 16 times that a declining power met a rising power. 12 out of those 16 times it ends in war. Only four times was war averted. So we are three times more likely that this ends in bloodshed than we are that, oh, this ends up being nothing. And Tom was an alarmist and we had nothing to worry about. Okay, those are terrible odds. If you were in Vegas, you bet on that all day long. Cause you, 3X, baby. So that's where we're at. That's this moment. And so I'm like, yes, if you want to have any shot of being the fifth time that we avoid the war,

• 30:46Tom Bilyeu?

  instead of the 13th time that we go to war. You absolutely must start being disciplined now, reining some of this back in, pulling people back to the middle, figuring out who's doing the agitating and why. Have open conversations about where we want to go as a country instead of surreptitious DA level shit. Like, I think what you're about to see is Elon running the Soros playbook. And that, that will be horrifying. As in establishing a new party, controlling? No, Soros was, uh, go to the local election level.

• 31:32Tom Bilyeu?

  They're really cheap. Win them over, get district attorneys that match your politics and just do it really quietly across the entire country. Uh, and then, I mean, Soros, suppose that they haven't looked deeply enough, is doing this all over the world. And so you just very slowly terraform ideologically the world. And it's like the classic case of you're planting a tree under whose shade you will never get to sit. But you just go this, I'm making the world over in the image that I want. And if it ends up being a bunch of, um, Extraordinarily wealthy people doing social engineering. Um, I couldn't hate that more because that is a bunch of people that are utterly convinced that they're right.

• 32:16Tom Bilyeu?

  And I hate that Soros has been doing it for God knows how long, and I will hate it if Elon starts it, even if he's trying to do it to combat it. It's just, man, that is not, I, I feel a bit Pollyannaish saying this because I'm talking about the world, the way that I wish it were, not the way that it actually is. But I really, I don't want that. I don't want to live in that system where it's just like all happening in back rooms, local elections from guys with huge piles of cash. Quick break, but don't go anywhere. There's more to come after this short break from our sponsors. You're probably paying two salespeople to do one salesperson's job.

• 32:59Tom Bilyeu?

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• 33:43Tom Bilyeu?

  There's no credit card payment needed. Just head to pipedrive.com/impact to get started. Again, that's pipedrive.com/impact and you can be up and running in minutes.

• 33:56Speaker 03

  Hey there, I'm Vince.

• 33:57Speaker 04

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• 33:58Speaker 03

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• 34:00Speaker 04

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• 34:01Speaker 03

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• 34:17Speaker 05

  And thank you for your attention to this matter.

• 34:28Tom Bilyeu?

  All right, we're back. Let's get into it.

• 34:31Speaker 02

  I hear that. That's a good point. I want to take a step back, though, with your framing of the question. I was thinking of analogies, like if you see something in a metal can with a label and the substance inside is floating in liquid, most people are like, oh, it's a can of soup or something. Okay, cool. But it also could be like baked beans, or it can also be like sauerkraut. So there's other objects that are wrapped in cans with items floating in like a liquid. So with that being as a framing, going back to the specific moment, what I'm hearing from my friends on the left, I have a communist friend, I love her to death, I don't agree with eight of the 10 things out of her mouth, but one thing that she is very accurate in this specific moment is, there is a resistance

• 35:14Speaker 02

  to the immigration policies that are happening right now, because people are seeing the villainization of immigrants, similar to the villainization of other marginalized groups. So the same people who said, oh, if Hitler was here, I would be hiding Anne Frank. No, you'll probably be yelling at the Jews for illegally protesting against it. You will be trying to say they need to go home and listen to the cops and things like that. And people see this in that moment. So how would you frame it for those people that are coming from it? And wholeheartedly, I'm not, we'll put the paid actors to the side, you know, I'm a moderate, according to Ray Dalio, my head's gonna roll first. Like, a moderate's in the elites, they die in the revolution first. So I'm out of here. But just understanding

• 35:55Speaker 02

  that a lot of people really think we're fighting fascism part two. I need to be this resistant because this is what the people in 1940 didn't do, and that's how Adolf Hitler won, versus this is just a law and order thing and you guys are fighting for the wrong side. I think there's a different narrative across those two sides. What do you say to that framing?

• 36:17Tom Bilyeu?

  My thing is, in business, you always ask, if you're attempting to do something, always ask, has this ever been done well before? And if it is, then you go back and you look at that thing and you say, okay, cool. Like, what happened here?

• 36:34Tom Bilyeu?

  To your specific friend about communism, I will say it's never been done well. And when you find yourself having to make excuses or say things like the most recent one I heard, the first four years of Soviet Russia was amazing and then it just became a bureaucratic mess. It's like, bro, at some point, you've got to recognize that those ideas do not line up with the way that humans actually are. So this is why I find myself, and I'm gonna have to decide what I'm gonna do about this. Am I gonna force myself to take

• 37:10Tom Bilyeu?

  a optimistic view, or am I going to just journalistically list all of the beats that I see us going down that have cause and effect tied to them? This is Ray Dalio's approach. So Ray Dalio is very gentle with the words that he uses because he's really just following cause and effect. And so he doesn't want to be alarmist, and I appreciate that about him. But it really does seem like there's an inevitability to what's going on right now. So I can give you a prognostication of exactly what has to be done. I just don't think I believe that people will do it until they suffer tremendously.

• 37:49Tom Bilyeu?

  And so people have some really delusional sense of what a revolution looks like. And they're horrible. Like even in France, when heads were rolling and there was like a euphoria, after a couple of years, you don't even want to see it anymore. You don't want to see another person beheaded. Like, yeah, like you got it. Yes, okay, I guess we got what we wanted. And so it just becomes, the revolution is like an on switch, and it's really hard to turn off. So Napoleon had to reorient people to the Napoleonic Wars. That was like, once the bloodlust gets going, like you gotta point at it something.

• 38:33Tom Bilyeu?

  And it was just eating France alive from the inside. And so you needed, remember, he ends up crowning himself fucking emperor. So you get that kind of energy to wrangle people once they click over into that like animalistic place.

• 38:52Tom Bilyeu?

  So wanting to see people avoid that kind of bloodlust, I'm like, okay, let's lay out, what is the cause and effect here? Where do we think this goes? The debt is a huge part of this, and unfortunately, I repeat myself, because whenever you're talking at the level of physics, there's only so many things that are true. Debt and money printing are driving all of your problems. Everything is born out of that. That's not the level at which people experience it. They experience it at the level of, um, these groups are being marginalized and, uh, immigration policies are just another way to be cruel to a marginalized group. Okay, uh, that isn't true. So let's backtrack. What is happening?

• 39:34Tom Bilyeu?

  What's happening is you're likely part of the tribe that is, um, what we in political language would call left-leaning. So you are designed to be compassionate. Like, that's the dominant lens through which you view the world. And so when people feed that, and they say, that's a just world, the way that you think about it is just, the way that these greedy pigs think about it, that's unjust, and they need to be stopped. And they're the new Nazis, and this is your chance to show that you really would hide Anne Frank in your attic, that you really would stand up to Trump, who is the next Hitler. The problem is, they're miscategorizing what's happening.

• 40:14Tom Bilyeu?

  So what they don't understand is, this isn't the 1940s, this is the 1930s. This is, um, Weimar, Germany on the edge of hyperinflation, populism is rising, and out of this moment will be born the next Hitler. And what we should all want to avoid is deficit spending into oblivion, because as we do that, then we're gonna find ourselves in a very bad situation, where you're gonna need a draconian person to come in and say, this is exactly what we're gonna do, and how we're gonna do it, we're gonna confiscate wealth, I mean, this is exactly Hitler's playbook. I'm gonna get us back on track economically, we're gonna steal everything from the Jews,

• 40:57Tom Bilyeu?

  that's gonna help the economy, we're going to invade these other nations, if we're gonna take- All their resources, that's gonna help the economy. We're going to ignore the Treaty of Versailles. We're gonna stop paying those debts. We're also gonna ignore the Treaty of Versailles and start building our military. It's like, that's the response when the economic breaks to the point where people are now suffering so much. They're like, I just need somebody to fix this.

• 41:18Speaker 02

  Chiming in right there. You don't see any parallels over like that list? Over what we're seeing now in that moment? Where?

• 41:24Tom Bilyeu?

  You're talking about the authoritarian bent of Trump.

• 41:28Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 41:29Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah? So, everything that Trump does that's authoritarian is fucking dangerous, horrific. And every time he's taking a step down that path, like that's dangerous, people need to scream. The question is, where is actually that line? And what I'm saying is that line isn't, there's a law and we're going to uphold it. That's why I'm saying they're miscategorizing what's happening with immigrants. So for instance, I think it would be extremely wise of Trump to find a path. Like if you've been here five or 10 years, man, you don't have a criminal record. You're paying taxes, which is crazy. As an illegal immigrant, you can actually get an ability to pay taxes. Crazy, I didn't know that.

• 42:10Tom Bilyeu?

  That's weird. But anyway, they're, they're here, they're paying their taxes, like find them a path. There's humanity in that. Too many people know, beautiful human beings, they came here illegally, but they're good people. And by the way, you are in the moment that you're in. People are extremely suspicious of you. So, do conspicuous acts of kindness. Pull a killer immigrant story into the surface, into the spotlight. People that you wanna help and you wanna see, this is the kind of person we wanna see thrive. They're here, they're raising a family, they're paying taxes, like they've got American values. Doesn't matter where they're from, but they've got American values, like fuck yeah.

• 42:55Tom Bilyeu?

  Like those are the kinds of people. That would be a huge win for, he's constitutionally incapable. He is not going to do it. But understanding that saying, here are the laws, we are going to abide by them. And just because you push back does not mean I'm going to back off. Like we, and also have some empathy for the other side. And I'll even take this one.

• 43:21Tom Bilyeu?

  Values matter. And America will get torn apart if we don't plant a flag and say, these are the values that we stand for. And anybody that's pushing back against that, um, we've got beef. So seeing a bunch of people in the streets waving Mexican flags is crazy. That's crazy. If I was in Mexico, lighting things on fire and waving an American flag, I would expect them to have a real fucking problem. In fact, if what I have found in my research can be believed, it is actually illegal in Mexico. If you are a non-citizen for you to protest even peacefully publicly, not allowed to do it. So, nah, that makes sense.

• 44:04Tom Bilyeu?

  And I think when we think about somebody else, we go, yeah, that makes sense. But we don't do that here. So I'm just saying, listen, peaceful protesting all day. I highly encourage Trump, fucking bury those weird authoritarian impulses you have, bro. They are going to take you down a dark fucking path. They are going to push people farther away from you. You will rapidly become, if you're not already, a president for half the country who literally does not give a fuck about the other half. That is fucking suicide. Don't do it. Find the humanity in this situation. Map out very publicly what we want to see from what I call foreign-born Americans.

• 44:46Tom Bilyeu?

  I love that America has people from all over the world. We should want the best and the brightest and the most loving and the most tax-abiding and all of that tasty shit. But where we have to get to is agreement on if we've got laws and they're being violated, especially if the president said, this is what I'm going to do, and that's how he was elected. And now he's coming in and doing that thing and people aren't standing up. And if this had been peaceful and then Trump had brought Marines in, that would be crazy. But there's a lot of shit burning. And anybody that tries to make out like these were peaceful protests, LA's gigantic. Of course, this is only going to happen in like small areas. But in those small areas.

• 45:33Tom Bilyeu?

  Stop, arrest the people that are doing it, simple as, and once people see, oh, the laws are going to be enforced, then they're gonna chill the fuck out. You have to be deft, you cannot overplay your hand, you don't want to go into areas where nothing is popping off, you don't want to institute curfews, like, this obviously can spill into police state real fast. And then that would be disgusting on Trump, and he becomes instantly the problem. But right now in California, people have been able to get away with the most outlandish shit.

• 46:06Speaker 02

  Arrests have been made, so people have been cracked down.

• 46:11Speaker 02

  I got this stat from, I think his name is Kaizen, the black dude that Elon keeps retweeting, Elon's black friend. He said that this all started over 118 migrants that they were going after, illegals that they were going after in California. It caused 134 million to deploy the National Guard, all in, taxes, fees included.

• 46:35Speaker 02

  It caused 17K to deport one person. So somebody who is trying to pass a bill that's going to raise the deficit, spending nine figures to crack down on 100 people. Now, mind you, if it was the 100 people trying to start the Sharia law city in Texas, maybe it's a different story, I might be able to lean to the right, close my eyes and be like, okay, I get that. But do you think that there is a economic reason that maybe we can be spending our time in other places versus immigration?

• 47:04Tom Bilyeu?

  I mean, there is certainly a case to be made to spend your money in other places, but what I will say are what are the big threats that you've got? And for four years, you had an open border. So you have, no one agrees on the numbers, but millions and millions and millions and millions of people that have come in illegally, that some certainly are not assimilating, some certainly are violent criminals. And so, part of this is you have to draw a line in the sand and say, these are going to be enforced now, they're going to be enforced in this way. And I was just talking to somebody, I won't rat them out, but I was just talking to somebody who had originally come here illegally, and they got their papers.

• 47:49Tom Bilyeu?

  Lovely person and very happy that they've managed to become a citizen now. It's awesome. And this person has a sibling that's here and they are um piecing out. They're like, lot of uncertainty, gotta go. And so, yes, this is like, if you just look at the numbers of all the people that you actually deport, you're probably not going to be able to make the math work. But showing that this is a place of discipline, that does work. And there's a hilarious Yeah.

• 48:29Tom Bilyeu?

  uh skit from South Park where they're like, you want to know how to, we deal with uh ADD in my classroom? And the kids are all freaking out and he slaps the shit out of the first one. And the kid like, whoa, whoa, whoa, and he starts crying, goes to the second one, he's still freaking out, slaps the shit out of him. He like, whoa, I got, whoa, whoa, what? He gets calm. And then the third one just calms down on his own. And it's like, yeah, you, obviously a joke. But if you start enforcing the rules, people will adhere to the rules. If you don't enforce the rules, then you won't.

• 49:09Tom Bilyeu?

  And the interesting thing is, to me, this is really a question about do we believe in personal property or not? And that, I think, is a big thing at the heart of the cultural debate right now is Because of the damage, we're going that way? That's part of it, but no, it comes down to if you believe in personal property, then a whole bunch of things echo out from that. So um if you believe in personal property, then uh if you come into my house, you can expect a violent response. California either already has made that illegal or has presented a bill to make that illegal. Meaning if you break into my house, I have to flee.

• 49:52Tom Bilyeu?

  What? That's fucking crazy.

• 49:56Speaker 02

  Versus to stay in your ground in Florida and Texas where I have a right to defend myself.

• 49:59Tom Bilyeu?

  Bro, this is my house. You gotta be fucking kidding. If you come in with intent to harm me, and I can't defend myself, that's somebody who doesn't believe in personal property. Because my body is my ultimate property. My house is my property. But a nation, a state, property. And so if you're not allowed to defend the borders of your country, that's somebody who doesn't believe in personal property. You don't believe that people can own a country. Drew, one thing we have to look at is Michael Schellenberger. He really explains very well,

• 50:31Tom Bilyeu?

  my sort of rough take, but eloquently explained on what's going on with the riots.

• 50:36Speaker 06

  The fact of the matter is that the people who run California don't see the riots as a crisis. They see them as a cleansing. They believe civilization itself, in the form of its laws, its borders, and its police, is corrupt at the root. In that worldview, civilization is not progress, it's crime. It's what made the conquest of indigenous people possible. It's what permitted slavery, it's what created capitalism, fossil fuels, families with two parents and fixed addresses. To them, the entire American project is a centuries-long atrocity masquerading as democracy. In their view, public order is not something to protect, it's something to dismantle. The violence we see in the streets is not a failure of their leadership,

• 51:19Speaker 06

  it's the fulfillment of their ideology. They believe the very existence of American law enforcement is an expression of white supremacy. The burden of all this doesn't fall on the celebrities or the influencers or the politicians who created it, falls on the working people and the poor, on the elderly, on the immigrants who followed the law, on the single mothers trying to keep their kids safe, on the nurses and teachers and cashiers and delivery drivers who can't afford to leave. It falls on the people who believed that if they worked hard and obeyed the rules, the state would protect them. Instead, the state has turned its back on them. And all the while, we're told that the law is the enemy. The truth is, the law is what makes life livable. It's what allows strangers to live alongside one another.

• 52:04Speaker 06

  It's what allows parents to send their kids to school, to open a store, to walk home at night. If you're not already a subscriber to Public, please subscribe now to support our award-winning investigative journalism, our defense of free speech, and to watch the rest of this video and read the rest of the article.

• 52:20Tom Bilyeu?

  That really does a phenomenal job of summing up what I am trying to get across, but did not say nearly as eloquently.

• 52:31Speaker 02

  I feel like it was a bingo board of like 2020 terms, and he was just like knocking them off. Because it's easy to say, this is the problem with California, and you group up the last 30 years and place it at this moment in this day. But as he was making that list at the end, like, it's illegal. You could get cited for watering your lawn, but it's not illegal to have a meth lab next to a school. Like, it still is legal. There is still some type of law and order. And I just don't want us to go off the rails with what happened this weekend, as California's in total chaos, put the whole thing in rice.

• 53:04Tom Bilyeu?

  But put the whole thing in rice? So, when you look at California, everything is fine.

• 53:11Speaker 02

  I think that's a jump. I didn't say that.

• 53:13Tom Bilyeu?

  So, give me, um, so, talk directionality for a second. Maybe you disagree with a few things with him, but directionally, you get where he's coming from. Or, like, this guy is so far out of his skis, like, this is nonsensical, he's blowing it out of proportion.

• 53:29Speaker 02

  Copy. Directionally, I get what he's saying, in the sense that California has allowed people's feelings to dictate policy, and that isn't always the best way to set policy for the masses. However, to say that... Californians think the problem with this weekend is white supremacy and that's why we went to write like that was just a buzzword that he knows gonna it's kind of like that's gonna invigorate a certain type of person to then fight back and say yeah that's what's wrong in California.

• 53:55Tom Bilyeu?

  I don't think so. So this goes back to what I was saying with the um there is there is almost certainly Marxist ideology underneath all of this trying to tear down the capitalist structure. Uh, this is the collision of values that I'm saying that we're gonna have to wade our way through. The the when he says white supremacy, I have a feeling he feels the way I feel when I talk about the debt where I'm like. I whenever I'm not saying debt, I'm just arguing at a different level of analysis because it's all an echo of the debt. It's all an echo of the debt. It's it's debt and money printing. That's all that matters. Everything else is a behavioral change that's downstream of that.

• 54:34Tom Bilyeu?

  And so I putting words in his mouth here, but I have a feeling that what he's saying is when you start putting people into group identities, it creates a frame of reference through which all you see is oppressed and oppressor. And the go to one here in America, obviously, is oppression from white privilege. I'm guessing. But that makes a lot of sense to me because I think that people are still lost as a framework in victim victimizer. That's why you can have queers for Palestine, which is absurd. They they will literally kill you and they have uh, had people like tell them to their face, we don't want your kind like out of March and stuff. They'll go right up to them.

• 55:18Tom Bilyeu?

  And uh, but at the same time, they can't make that make sense because in their worldview, well, hold on a second like you're being oppressed. And therefore we're on the same team because I'm being oppressed. And so there's this sense of when that's your entire worldview. Everything is going to be filtered through that lens, even if the term starts becoming passe. The idea of but we're this is this is a power struggle. This is um, the class struggle by another name. And like when you start reading the history of why Marxists moved away from the class struggles because it didn't end up working. They thought there was going to be this huge uprising of the classes. No.

• 55:59Tom Bilyeu?

  And so finally, they were like, huh, the class thing doesn't work, which is crazy. So what do we do? And they found identity politics and fucking hell. It's worked so far. It hasn't gone all the way, so it may too peter out. We'll see. Fingers crossed. But I, I, he, Schellenberger, I'm admittedly not deep, deep familiar with, but I've seen enough of his stuff that I wouldn't want to end up in a debate with him on the opposite side. Like, he's really thought about this. Whether you're right or not is different. He's just thought about this so much. He's got a pretty airtight cause and effect. People are not always right about that. But, yeah.

• 56:42Tom Bilyeu?

  He certainly has it.

• 56:43Speaker 02

  And then Victor Davis Hansen had another alternative take about Newsom as well, talking about how he pretty much torched his opportunity to be president.

• 56:54Speaker 07

  But here's what's interesting. The mayor, Karen Bass, came down in her public comments on the side of the protesters who were protesting the idea of deportation at all, kind of like Kamala Harris used to march against deportation. And Gavin Newsom then gave a series of editorializations that I think have ruined his chances ever to be a serious national candidate. He said this was chaotic. This was reckless. And he said that they were just trying to have an arbitrary deportation quota. Gavin, Gavin, 12 million people came into the country illegally. That was 3 million a year. That was 250,000 per month. That was over 8,000 a day.

• 57:39Speaker 07

  They have not been able to deport more than 1,000 on most days, sometimes 500. They would have to deport 8,000 people every single day for four years to get back where we were with 20 million illegal aliens when Joe Biden entered office. So it's not a quota. It's an effort to stop an invasion. And it's a very funny invasion because now Gavin is mad that they nationalized the California Guard. Trump has that ability. And people said, no, no president, they have to request it. No, they don't. You think that JFK said to George Wallace, when he nationalized the Alabama National Guard, said, would you please let us nationalize your guard so you can be removed

• 58:23Speaker 07

  from stopping African American people going to the University of Alabama? No.

• 58:27Tom Bilyeu?

  Very, very well said. The reality is that protecting your borders is absolutely critical to maintaining the integrity of the value structure of your country. And without that, you pull apart from the inside. We are in the middle of a battle for ideas. In the eighties, it was like this really overt battle for which was better economically, the Soviet system or the capitalist system. Capitalism won. Great. Now we're in a different battle for ideology around equality of outcome, personal property, like really foundational

• 59:06Speaker 02

  But I feel like it's still socialism versus capitalism.

• 59:09Tom Bilyeu?

  It will play out like that, but that's not the battleground. The battleground is ideological. The battleground is algorithmic. The battleground is about what ideas make up your worldview. It will manifest ultimately in that kind of system for sure. But before, we just talked about the surface system. We didn't talk about like the underlying values that were driving it. We certainly didn't, they certainly weren't because I was too young for to be a part of this, but it certainly wasn't propagated in the way that it is now. Now is what they call the slow march, long march through the institutions, whereas one by one, you take

• 59:51Tom Bilyeu?

  over education, administration, the government, et cetera, et cetera. And so then it's just like, people are just born into this ideological soup that is slowly undermining that, breaking everybody instead of into class, breaking people into races, into group identity, prioritizing victimization, looking at the world through the lens of that. Like, we are actually, this is so crazy to me, but we are actually living in a time where people are like, but America's on stolen land. What?

• 1:00:25Tom Bilyeu?

  I'm sorry, like that is uh, that is so ignorant of human history that I don't know what to do with that.

• 1:00:33Speaker 02

  What do you mean by that? That's so ignorant of human history.

• 1:00:36Tom Bilyeu?

  So would you please point to the land that wasn't taken over by somebody?

• 1:00:41Speaker 02

  So everybody's on stolen land, so nobody's on stolen land?

• 1:00:44Tom Bilyeu?

  Correct.

• 1:00:45Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 1:00:46Tom Bilyeu?

  Everything, everywhere has been taken, lost, fought for, taken back, lost again. Like it, it, it is a never ending sequence of my tribe, kill your tribe. People went to war for women for a long time. Where it was like, in fact, there was a, a modern conversation with, uh, I don't know if they were in the Amazon or in Africa, but it was like a tribe that had resisted modernization. And they were talking to them and he said something like, um, well, why do you guys go to war? And he was like, for women, why else would you go to war?

• 1:01:26Tom Bilyeu?

  And when that clicks for people, that like the ultimate thing to get in a war historically, was either land or women, yo, like that is rough trade. So that's history. History is, um, history is a freak show. It is, it is an unbearable litany of death and destruction. And at this point, we've gotten to something approaching stability. And people are harkening back to a past that never existed. The whole idea of like, there were noble savages that had this land before whoever and just isn't true. In terms of they weren't peaceful anywhere.

• 1:02:11Speaker 02

  Okay, so it seems like since we were the last perpetrators, we're treated as if we're the only perpetrators. And that's where you're saying is a ignorance of history.

• 1:02:20Tom Bilyeu?

  Correct.

• 1:02:21Speaker 02

  Copy.

• 1:02:24Speaker 02

  Ray Dalio, in his article on X about civil war, he talks about what led up to this moment and how in his book Principles, Chapter 5 and Chapter 6 talks about pre-civil war. Chapter 6 talks about civil war and kind of the bridge between those two. One of the things that jumped out to me about that was the classic toxic mix. And he said, "The classic toxic mix of forces that brings about big internal conflicts consists of, one, the country and the people in the country, or state or city, being in bad financial shape, e.g. having big debt and non-debt obligations. Two, large income, wealth and value gaps within that entity. And three, a severe negative economic shock." So to me, although we are talking about this in the frame of immigration,

• 1:03:08Speaker 02

  we have a country that has large massive debt. We have, number three, a severe negative economic shock, where everybody's still recovering from COVID. But number two specifically, the large income, wealth and value gap, I think is what's being discussed right now, live in front of everybody, where there's a value gap between of... There's people who don't even use the term illegal, because they don't think a human being can be an illegal alien.

• 1:03:32Tom Bilyeu?

  That's a personal property value. That's what I'm trying to get at. They're gonna say those words, "nobody can be illegal", but what they mean is, "there should be no borders." Once you say that, then it's like, "well, then I should be able to come into your house." What's the problem? So it's like, you want to ask them, "where do you draw the line? Your house? Your bedroom? Town, city, state, nation? Where? And if you draw it just at the house, who gets to protect your house? Or who should protect your house? Now we have police? What about fire? And so, very quickly, you realize, "oh shit, to protect property, I have to be back in a nation." I mean, that's what all of this sprang from. In my most recent deep dive, one of the facts that I came across was how gunpowder

• 1:04:17Tom Bilyeu?

  gave us the nation-state. It allowed money to become, like, way more important, because no longer could a king with a bunch of knights hold me down, because I had a gun, I'd fucking shoot your knight. And so, now, all of a sudden, it was like, "oh shit, they've got to build armies." And so, once they start building armies, then it's like, "okay, I'm gonna fold you under my protection, because I've got this big army", and you start getting into these wealth-driven, because they've got to pay for these very expensive wars, these wealth-driven nation-states, which is basically what we live inside of today. Now, they're way better than the alternatives that we had for god knows how long, where most people were essentially enslaved. Um, but it, these things come about for reasons.

• 1:04:58Tom Bilyeu?

  And unless you're willing to backtrack, I mean, the reality is like, I just come back to this one all the time. If somebody's gonna be weak as fuck, somebody else is gonna come along and take your shit. It's just that simple. If you don't protect your house, people are gonna come take your shit. Simple ass.

• 1:05:17Speaker 02

  Okay, uh, if so, fact though on that.

• 1:05:19Tom Bilyeu?

  Do you disagree with that?

• 1:05:20Speaker 02

  No, I, I just think that's a very animalistic principle of the bigger, the stronger wins. The biggest and the baddest, they win.

• 1:05:29Tom Bilyeu?

  Do you think that, uh, Zelensky would agree? That I better be able to protect myself?

• 1:05:37Speaker 02

  That Zelensky would agree that I better be able to protect myself?

• 1:05:39Tom Bilyeu?

  Yes. Okay, do you think, uh, the Palestinians would agree? I better be able to protect myself?

• 1:05:45Speaker 02

  Uh, yes.

• 1:05:46Tom Bilyeu?

  Do you think the Israelis would agree? I better be able to protect myself?

• 1:05:50Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 1:05:51Tom Bilyeu?

  And on and on and on it goes. So.

• 1:05:53Speaker 02

  So you think so, America should be able to say, I'm protecting myself?

• 1:05:57Tom Bilyeu?

  America has a moral obligation to its citizens to protect itself. Now, I guarantee you and I will draw different lines around what that should look like. And certainly I and many other people out in the world are going to, uh, draw different lines. But I believe one of the lines that you have to draw is the border around your country. And you have to be realistic that values make a difference, a wild difference. I'll paraphrase a quote from, uh, Thomas Sowell, the fucking genius economist, uh, who said, "No thing has ever been claimed without any evidence to back it up more vociferously than the fact that diversity is our greatest strength."

• 1:06:40Speaker 02

  No thing has ever been claimed that has yet to back it up.

• 1:06:44Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, there's no backing to, to prove that diversity is actually beneficial. Why? Because it's not. You have to overcome the problems of diversity. Now, I think that you actually do get something, which is you want different perspectives to see a problem from different angles. But it's like a republic if you can keep it. Because the problem is people tear themselves apart. The, the lack of shared values rips at people. And when they don't have shared values, then whatever good may come of it, you first have to get on the other side of that lack of shared values. And so, yes, some diversity is good, but too much diversity is a problem. And this is why, even within a company, one of, one of the most important things that I look for is cultural fit.

• 1:07:29Tom Bilyeu?

  Like, can I, like Drew, it's entirely possible that inside you're seething and you cannot wait to get away from me. That is possible. I admit, I may be blindsided by that one day. Uh, but I feel like you and I can disagree about something and there's still mutual respect. Because underlying it somewhere, there's enough shared values, they'll never map perfectly. But there's enough shared values that we're like, yeah, I get it. Like, he doesn't agree, may even think I'm crazy. Um, but he's giving me the space to say my thing, whatever, whatever. And when you have that, yay, good. You have been extraordinarily good for this channel. I've said that a thousand times publicly and privately.

• 1:08:09Speaker 02

  Appreciate it, thank you.

• 1:08:10Tom Bilyeu?

  And so I am extremely glad that you think slightly different than me. But I'm also glad that, um, you're not anti-capitalism or, uh, thinking that I'm evil, like that would not be fun.

• 1:08:27Speaker 02

  There, there's something to the response of it all, though. Um, because the reason I, I bring up the civil war thing, um, Ray Dalio's words, is because I think at the root of it, we're back at the haves and the have-nots. We're back at incoming, like, income disparity.

• 1:08:42Tom Bilyeu?

  Yep.

• 1:08:42Speaker 02

  And I think once that income disparity, then you start adding, adding these layers of culture. That's where we're kind of going through this disconnect. That's why we're having all these problems.

• 1:08:51Tom Bilyeu?

  Yes.

• 1:08:52Speaker 02

  So.

• 1:08:52Tom Bilyeu?

  Six degrees of federal banking, central bank.

• 1:08:56Speaker 02

  Mm-hmm. But in this moment, how would you recommend we help fix that income disparity? Because I understand, not the deficit spend, I understand the dangers of the Fed. But with the bill that Trump has out and the Senate and the backers and the money that's in their pockets, I don't see as not deficit spending.

• 1:09:16Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah.

• 1:09:17Speaker 02

  So is it one of those situations that this is just going to be the first domino of a bunch of other, as the income keeps widening?

• 1:09:24Tom Bilyeu?

  This is the 362nd domino of, God, I hope 500, but I fear 363. So, uh, I, it.

• 1:09:40Tom Bilyeu?

  is obvious to me that the nature of our economic and political system is such that Trump was always going to print. My belief is that he would print less than we would have gotten with Kamala. And I'm happy to make the case for you or anybody else, because it's clear that Trump has authoritarian tendencies. But I have a similar allergic response to Kamala Harris. I'll keep it specific about her, because I would be very open to a Democrat candidate. But her economic illiteracy, the fact that they hid Joe Biden for, I probably would

• 1:10:22Tom Bilyeu?

  have said two years, but it might have been a lot longer than that. And all the censorship and the control of AI, all that, like, they, I know some people are gonna think I'm out of my mind for this, but from an authoritarian standpoint, Donald Trump does not scare me nearly as much as Kamala and the Democratic Party that ran in 2024. Now, maybe next election, that won't be true. I am not on a fucking team. I am not a Republican. I am not a Democrat. I'm gonna vote for the person who I think best understands cause and effect and will take us to where we're trying to get to. So, yeah.

• 1:10:58Speaker 02

  But in this revolutionary times,

• 1:11:00Tom Bilyeu?

  Yep.

• 1:11:01Speaker 02

  the elites and the moderates die first.

• 1:11:02Tom Bilyeu?

  Yep.

• 1:11:03Speaker 02

  In populist moments, things like that. So how, how are you navigating the moderateness? I'm gonna use that, the moderateness, because I feel like on immigration, you're a bit right-leaning.

• 1:11:15Tom Bilyeu?

  On immigration, I'm right-leaning, yeah, yeah, for sure.

• 1:11:17Speaker 02

  I wouldn't call you moderate on that issue.

• 1:11:20Tom Bilyeu?

  That's interesting. I feel like, what would, what would far-right look like? Far-right would be, fuck them. If they're here illegally, get them the fuck out. Whereas I'm saying, hey, there's probably a window, call it five to 10 years, where, if they're like...

• 1:11:41Tom Bilyeu?

  Never been arrested, paying their taxes, like, yeah, like, help them find a path to citizenship. Some test of some kind to see if they're assimilating, maybe the test that they already do for citizenship is enough. But something like that, that feels pretty moderate to me. I'm not like banging a drum, lock them up, get these fucking guys out, send everybody to Libya, like, that's insane to me.

• 1:12:07Tom Bilyeu?

  We need to figure out what due processes, everybody should have due process. Is it a full jury trial? No, that doesn't seem sensible to me. Anyway, I won't spend a lot of time defending myself there, but I do feel like, I get why you say that, but I think that there are positions way further right than me.

• 1:12:23Speaker 02

  Agreed, yeah. You're not Breitbart, so I don't want to say that, but at the same time, I just think that there's levels to how things can get handled, and I think that Trump is doing this to maximize political wins versus actually.

• 1:12:37Tom Bilyeu?

  Every politician is, 100%. He is a politician. He lies, he spins, he is constantly trying to manipulate in position. If I ever see a politician that's not, I'll let you know. Rand Paul, I align with him economically, so my emotional pull is to think that maybe he doesn't, but he probably does, and I probably just haven't looked closely. It is the nature of the political game to make you do that.

• 1:13:08Tom Bilyeu?

  As far as I can tell from the outside, you have to do that to get elected. There's just some people that are worse at it, better, I don't know how to look at it, but there are some people that do it more aggressively than others.

• 1:13:20Speaker 02

  With the national organized protests happening this Saturday, do you think that things are going to escalate more?

• 1:13:27Tom Bilyeu?

  I would like to believe not. I would like to believe that it's gonna be chill. Things are never as bad as I fear they're gonna be, they're never as good as I hope they're gonna be. So hopefully it's pretty chill, we've got the National Guard or whatever on standby, everybody's ready, they actually enforce the laws, like, that would be wonderful. So, no, I'm not living in fear, but I will say that I continue to ask myself one question.

• 1:13:59Tom Bilyeu?

  If it all kicked off, if I really believe that civil war is inevitable, am I in the right place?

• 1:14:08Speaker 02

  Like, America, California?

• 1:14:10Tom Bilyeu?

  Definitely California, Drew. I will be heartbroken if I ever come to the conclusion that America is not the place.

• 1:14:18Speaker 02

  You just gotta go to Puerto Rico, like Peter Schiff, man, you'll be fine.

• 1:14:21Tom Bilyeu?

  Nah, that's a bad idea, but if you wanna know what I'm really thinking, and I can't believe this is true, Singapore?

• 1:14:28Speaker 02

  Singapore.

• 1:14:29Tom Bilyeu?

  UAE? Like Abu Dhabi? Dude, the vibe in the UAE is, um,

• 1:14:39Tom Bilyeu?

  90s America.

• 1:14:40Speaker 02

  We can take IT on the road, let's do it.

• 1:14:43Tom Bilyeu?

  You're joking. I'm not.

• 1:14:46Speaker 02

  Hey. I got a passport.

• 1:14:49Tom Bilyeu?

  Let's go.

• 1:14:51Speaker 02

  Trump called the National Guard and the Marines, like sidestepping Gavin Newsom. This is the first time a president directly called for the National Guard to help since the civil rights movement. And for those that need the flashback of what was going on at that point, they were trying to get into school, the cops were beating them, the National Guard was coming in to kind of curtail the local law enforcement. Do you think that, do you have an issue with Trump kind of using that executive powers? LA has 80,000 cops, they didn't even use 50% of that this weekend.

• 1:15:25Tom Bilyeu?

  Dude, whenever I look at stats on California, I feel like it's being woefully mismanaged. So this is admittedly a little bit of the, um,

• 1:15:36Tom Bilyeu?

  annoyed husband who's just like, I've fucking had enough. So, yeah, I've had enough. And I have zero faith that Newsom or Bass are going to do anything. They, they had so much time to prepare for the California fires and did not. They just let it fucking burn. And they have obviously had time to prepare a response, learning from what happened in 2020, and have not. Like, they have a amount of leniency. That I think is for riots, that I think is wildly inappropriate. And their argumentation about, well, if you didn't try to stop them from rioting,

• 1:16:20Tom Bilyeu?

  you would have been fine. It was like, what the fuck are you talking about? This is like, look, I don't have kids, but when I see people with kids that just run riot and they take their iPad and the kid is shrieking and crying. I'm like, okay, first of all, you let your kid get addicted to the iPad. That was dumb. Second, you are where you are now. You can't take it away and then hand it right back because they start screaming. You've got to be like, what is actually best for the citizens of this state? And safety would be number one. Now, again, you can spill over into a police state and that will be just as bad, rapidly heading towards something worse. So I'm not saying be draconian or ham handed. I'm saying you've got to have the deftness to go, we're not going to let you people do this.

• 1:17:03Tom Bilyeu?

  But if you spit on an officer, arrest them. I'm sure that it's assault or whatever, because you don't want to make it so that everybody's fucking spitting on you. But no, you should not hit them with a baton.

• 1:17:15Speaker 02

  All right, Cash Patel was out here lying again on Joe Rogan.

• 1:17:18Tom Bilyeu?

  Dude, this was crazy. Did you watch this?

• 1:17:20Speaker 02

  I didn't watch the whole episode though.

• 1:17:21Tom Bilyeu?

  Here's the thing, we should probably play this particular clip, but let me just set up the whole interview really fast. Okay, I know nothing about who Cash is before he became the director of the FBI. So supposedly he's got backstory and he's like been a gunslinger, like really fought to uncover like corruption and all this stuff and paid a personal price. And I didn't know any of that. But man, every time I hear this guy talk about the Epstein files, I'm just like, he's not being honest. I don't know that. These are just my feelings. I want to be very clear. I have no evidence whatsoever. But man, there's something so weird about the way that he talks about this stuff. That like, I'm going to get you the files right on day one. And it's like, nope, hard pass.

• 1:18:06Tom Bilyeu?

  And so what we're watching the episode with Joe Rogan, I was like, he did not convince me at all. I was like, what is happening? And so after the interview, people were saying, Wait a second, uh, he made claims, which you're gonna hear. He made claims that there are no tapes of Epstein, um, doing anything. And then Pam Bondi has said the exact opposite. I actually have a very different take on this, even though I still get the heebie jeebies every time he talks about this. But I'll say that after we show the clip.

• 1:18:38Speaker 08

  Again, logical play out. If there was a video of some guy or gal committing felonies on an island, and I'm in charge, don't you think you'd see it?

• 1:18:47Speaker 09

  Tens of thousands of videos of Epstein with children or child porn. And there are hundreds of victims. And no one victim will ever get released. It's just the volume and that's what they're going through right now. The FBI is diligently going.

• 1:19:06Speaker 02

  What did Dan say? He killed himself. Trust me, he killed himself.

• 1:19:10Tom Bilyeu?

  Oh, God, I'm looking like he's in pain every time he talks about it. Okay, I, I don't know, man. I don't know what any of this is. So just from a pure speculation standpoint. One, if you go and watch the full video, he, it's, I'm gonna be very generous. The words he say go something like this.

• 1:19:33Tom Bilyeu?

  There's footage of Epstein. It's not the footage that you wanna see, what people are expecting to see. Doesn't say what he thinks they're expecting to see, but let's read into that and say, there, there are no other people. The only person you're gonna see on tape is Epstein. None of these words are said, but Pam Bondi says there's tens of thousands of tapes with Epstein and, uh, does she say underage girls? Or child porn, whatever, but she only says that it's Epstein. So it's possible, what Cash was saying is, what you guys want is footage of Donald Trump, Bill Gates, Reid Hoffman, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, sleeping with underage girls. It just doesn't exist.

• 1:20:17Tom Bilyeu?

  Bill Clinton, like all the fucking names that people have been expecting. So that, that thing you want, that's not there. And because Epstein is, he did not say these words. This is my very generous interpretation. Because Epstein is already dead, to release these tapes would just be to victimize the women. Because there's no one left to get. It's just Epstein, over and over and over and over and over. And so, yeah, you're, you're not going to be satisfied. I believe Epstein already killed himself. Uh, he's the only one on any of these tapes. And so to release them won't satisfy the public, and it's going to victimize these women. So that would be the way, even though it really does,

• 1:20:59Tom Bilyeu?

  in this clip, sound like, uh, they're saying the exact opposite things. I have a feeling that's what he was trying to articulate. But dude, oh man, do I have, I have a, um, what do they call it, idea virus? Anyway, I have an idea that is lodged in my head that I cannot shake. That mind virus? A mind virus, a mind virus, yes. That, that, that, this is like some Eyes Wide Shut shit, man. Yeah. And that there's just powerful people on these tapes, and no matter what, because it's both sides of the fucking aisle, uh, that they're never going to release it. And every time I say this out loud, in my head, I'm saying, slow down,

• 1:21:42Tom Bilyeu?

  map cause and effect, go off what you know. Uh, as Michael Malice says, take one red pill, not the whole bottle. Like, I try not to get ahead of myself and, uh, get sucked into conspiracy theory land. I like a good conspiracy theory like anybody else, but this one admittedly has wedged itself in my brain in a way that I can't shake, to where I'm reading into like, when he looks at the camera, when he looks at Joe, like, uh, fucking analyzing everything in his body movements. And I was just like, he cleared his throat! Uh, oh god. So, I need to be a little bit careful getting, uh, obsessive with this one, but it's a clear indication that I have come to believe that there really are, uh,

• 1:22:26Tom Bilyeu?

  people behind the scenes. Like, do you know CFR? CFR, huh? Council on Foreign Relations. It's interesting, it makes its way through the book, um, The Creature from Jekyll Island. Mm-hmm. And I, I thought about covering it in my, um, deep dive, and I ended up not doing it. Because I feel like I need to do more work on it, like to see if there's really something there. But there's a distressing number of really high level people. It's like something like, this is directionally correct, like eight out of the last 12 presidents were CFR members.

• 1:23:04Tom Bilyeu?

  It's crazy. So, and it's like a think tank, invitation only, like they don't publish their whole membership, like kinda thing.

• 1:23:15Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:23:15Tom Bilyeu?

  And, I don't know, man.

• 1:23:17Speaker 02

  Secrets of society, man.

• 1:23:18Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, yeah, like Skull and Bones, that kinda shit. I'm just like, meh. So I need to be careful with this one. I'm probably out over my skis.

• 1:23:25Speaker 02

  That's all I got.

• 1:23:26Tom Bilyeu?

  Awesome. If you guys are not already watching our lives, make sure you join us 6 a.m. Pacific time, Wednesday and Friday. I'll see you there.

• 1:23:34Speaker 02

  Obama deported nine million people. There wasn't a single protest in downtown LA. Biden deported more people than Trump. There wasn't a single protest in downtown LA. Trump is agitating people. That's the, that's the point that's like frustrating me.

• 1:23:48Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, so to act as if LA does not have an illegal immigrant problem is insane. Second.

• 1:23:55Speaker 02

  That those, that's, those words never came out of my mouth.

• 1:23:58Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, that was certainly the implication, that LA is not the place that you would go when you're talking about illegal immigrants. That, that, first of all, the southern border of California is for sure one of the places that people are coming over. Do they stay in San Diego? No, they come up to Los Angeles. Why? Because there's more opportunity here. So that strikes me as very weird. Without at all saying that, I'm perfectly open to, is Trump coming to LA specifically because he wants to like make it a flashpoint so that we can talk about it? Maybe, but I-

• 1:24:34Speaker 02

  He's been on Fox News all the time. He's getting praises for being a law, law and order president. He's already getting political capital. You're, you're, in this moment, you're defending him in this act, saying, he's just doing what he, what I voted for him to do. That's, that's the win that Trump is getting by doing this.

• 1:24:49Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, first of all, I'm not defending Trump. What I'm saying is- The debate for me is do we protect borders or not? When people come across the border, do we deport them or not? When people are rioting, do we draw a line between peaceful protests and riots or not? Do we let things burn fast? Which is where this argument started, which sounds absolutely crazy to me. Or do we actually say, we're going to enforce this? You guys are not children, you do not get to lash out. And the more that we let people lash out, then the more they're going to lash out because they're going to be emboldened. Now, at what I'll call the 11th hour of that argument, you're introducing the idea that this is really just about political capital.

• 1:25:32Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, in your defense, you brought that up very early, the last time we talked about it. So I know it's sincere, I know you're not just trying to pull off that subject. But I think you have to take these things one by one. Even if Trump is doing this purely for political capital, you know what that's going to trigger in me? Yes, politicians are going to politic, period, end of story. There isn't going to be a politician that doesn't politic. So Trump is going to use, first of all, the country is so different now than it was when Obama was in office. But setting that aside, uh, there's no doubt that Trump is going to do everything he can to stay in power. That's the game. I am very unnerved by how often he talks about a third term.

• 1:26:17Tom Bilyeu?

  So Trump gets no pass from me. I do not consider myself a Republican. I do not consider myself on the right. I do not consider myself Team Trump. None of that shit. I am, there is an end state that I'm trying to get to. Fiscally responsible, safe, the land of opportunity, personal freedom. Like though, that's what I'm looking for, for America. You know my stance, you come back out of the car far enough and you're going to see that this is a response to fucking debt.

• 1:26:46Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, zooming back in on the issue, it, to me, right now, this moment is a question of, how do you respond to people that are being violent? And the overwhelming argument that I hear from you, setting aside the, this is for political capital, which I will just concede, because everything any politician ever does is for political capital. But the overwhelming argument that I hear from you is that if you just left them alone to burn a few things, then this would go back to normal and we would be fine. And what I'm saying is, that, that argument, just to stay on that, is where we disagree.

• 1:27:23Speaker 02

  If you just leave them alone long enough, it would go away.

• 1:27:27Tom Bilyeu?

  Yes, it would burn fast, I think is what you said.

• 1:27:29Speaker 02

  I said that, but I think that's a much different argument than allow people to do whatever they want for a night and just turn your head to it.

• 1:27:36Tom Bilyeu?

  So where's your line? If it isn't breaking cars?

• 1:27:39Speaker 02

  The reason I'm not so uppity about a car fire is because I'm a sports fan. So I've seen when people win games and championships and you go through the parade and people flip over cars, they burn stuff. When Rutgers beat Louisville, that was like our biggest, we were, they were number three, we beat them. We took down the cross links, we went outside, like, so I have seen people go outside and riot for a celebration for a sports team, for things like that. Yes, cars were burned, yes, windows were broken, yes, things like that. So to me, I have seen things happen like that, that didn't equal civil war, it equaled excessive expression. So I am a little bit less, I see a car on fire, we need martial law, because, again, any national championship-

• 1:28:24Tom Bilyeu?

  Who called for martial law?

• 1:28:26Speaker 02

  Or, I'm sorry, National Guard.

• 1:28:29Speaker 02

  I see National Guard, I don't see car fire equals National Guard, and that's the thing that's different for me. Now, everybody wants to bring up Black Lives Matter, everybody wants to bring up 2020. I think all of this is just an open scab from that. And I think that the honest thing is that we're looking through, we're looking at this and saying- If we allow them to protest, it's going to equal that. And I think we're making a lot of assumptions. I think we're jumping the gun a little bit. And that's where, even with Newsom and Karen Bass, which I would say, for the record, I think LA and California has terrible leadership. But that's, if you're gonna say politics is gonna politic and be okay with Trump politicking and going to a sanctuary city to enforce his policies, you can't then look at Newsom

• 1:29:14Speaker 02

  and Karen Bass trying to defend themselves, saying they had it under control and say, "They were stupid, they didn't have it under control." I feel like you can't have it both. If the politicians are gonna say whatever they can to rile up their bases, then we should take all the politicians off the table. Now, if we're just going back to, okay, Carson-

• 1:29:28Tom Bilyeu?

  I don't think there's a way to take all the politicians off the table. What I'm saying is, it is irrelevant to me whether Trump did this as a stunt. What's happening is, the response is the response. And so, if, if he came here, because it's like, "I know that this is gonna get coverage, I know I'm gonna be able to make my point," which I don't know that I buy, that sounds super counterintuitive to me.

• 1:29:49Speaker 02

  Apple released a paper on LLMs. They called "The Illusion of Thinking: Understanding the Strengths and Limitations of Reasoning Models Via the Length of Problem Complexity." Now, this was a super wordy document, but something that jumped out to me that I wanted to highlight here. "Current evaluations primarily focus on established mathematical encoding benchmarks. It's emphasizing final answer accuracy. However, this evaluation paradigm also shifts, often suffers from data contamination and does not provide insights into the reasoning traces, structure, and quality. In this work, we systematically investigate these gaps with the help of controllable puzzle environments that allow precise manipulation of compositional complexity while maintaining consistent logical structures.

• 1:30:33Speaker 02

  This setup enables the analysis of not only final answers, but also the internal reasoning traces, offering insights into how LRM's quote-unquote 'think.'" The reason they're writing this is to say that they don't actually think that they think, they just recognize patterns and regurgitate and kinda spit it back out.

• 1:30:49Tom Bilyeu?

  100%.

• 1:30:49Speaker 02

  So, no beef on that. And then, on the flip side, Sam Altman said that the new-

• 1:30:55Tom Bilyeu?

  Uh, oh three, I think it's where at oh five. Oh, three pro just dropped. Oh, three is fundamentally smarter than him and he's okay with that. So it seems like on one. Saying, I just tested it out for the first time today. It's so fucking slow. Yeah. I was mortified. It was like doing deep research for a really basic question. So I think that you're only going to ask that thing like really hardcore shit, which hey, great. Another tool in the toolkit. I love it, but it took like literally 15 minutes to get a response to a single, not like go do research on this, like a very simple question. Yeah. Um, so that'll have its limitations, but hey, great. Like it's a tool that we can use. Going back to what you were talking about. So this is the fundamental question.

• 1:31:38Tom Bilyeu?

  This is the thing that makes me uh curious as to whether Yan La Kun would make a good interview for me. Yan La Kun believes, guys, L L Ms are simply guessing at the most likely next token, given the context that you gave it. It has gone out and taken in the world's information, and this is why it's always going to feel like uh, a mid writer, because it's like, it is literally giving you the mid answer, the, the most likely answer. Now you can probably skew that through uh reinforcement by saying, okay, yeah, yeah, yeah. That might be the most common, but this is actually the best. So, you know, you start bumping it up, up, up, up, up. But he's saying it will never understand the physical world. It just can't because it's just a pattern recognition device.

• 1:32:23Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, my hope is that Yan is wrong for the following reason, that all of the patterns are there. We're just not able to see the patterns because we cannot take in the data from all the different sources. And so for instance, what Einstein was noticing in his imagination was a pattern that nobody else had recognized. That for all the things that I know and see in the world to be true, the following thing would have to be true. That if I were traveling at the speed of light and I turned a flashlight on, the light is going to race ahead of me. It's not going to stand next to me. And so uh, that's when he was like, holy shit, this is actually relative. Uh, and I have a feeling that that is what we're going to learn from um.

• 1:33:06Tom Bilyeu?

  L L Ms that you guys just aren't seeing the patterns. If you haven't already, be sure to leave us a review wherever you get your podcasts. Make it a five star. If I might, it really does help the show. And until next time, my friends, be legendary. Take care. Peace. Let's talk about a pattern that is guaranteed to be killing your progress. You know what you need to do. You need consistent nutrition. We all do. You need vitamins, probiotics, greens. We all know that we should be doing more of it. When your morning gets chaotic, you skip it. When you travel, you skip it. When your routine breaks, everything tends to break and that inconsistency compounds against you every single day. AG1 is designed to solve the execution problem. One scoop, eight ounces of water, and you're

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• 1:34:23Speaker 01

  You hit us with a pinprick, you know, we hit back 10 times harder. They're not going anywhere. I promise. You've tried for a decade now. It's not working. I knew exactly what I was getting into. I'm damn proud of it. Everybody sucks. You suck. They suck. This guy sucks. That's not happening. This is not that show. This is the Dan Bongino Show. We bring receipts and facts. Go to rumble.com/bongino or listen on Apple, Spotify, wherever you get your podcast.