Mamdani WINS, NYC Residents PANIC, Prop 50 PASSES + Will The AI Bubble BURST? | PBD Podcast | Ep 679

Patrick Bet-David, Tom Ellsworth, Brandon Aceto, and Barry Habib break down Zohran Mamdani’s NYC victory, the mass panic among residents preparing to flee, Prop 50’s passage and its political fallout, and whether the booming AI market is on the verge of collapse. ------ 📕 REGISTER FOR BPW 2025 - FRIDAY, DECEMBER 12TH 2025: https://bit.ly/3IU2YWx Ⓜ️ CONNECT ON MINNECT: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4kSVkso⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4kSVkso Ⓜ️ PBD PODCAST CIRCLES: ⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4mAWQAP⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4mAWQAP 🎙️ FOLLOW THE PODCAST ON SPOTIFY: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4g57zR2⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4g57zR2 🎙️ FOLLOW THE PODCAST ON ITUNES: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4g1bXAh⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4g1bXAh 🎙️ FOLLOW THE PODCAST ON ALL PLATFORMS: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4eXQl6A⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4eXQl6A 🥃 BOARDROOM CIGAR LOUNGE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4pzLEXj⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4pzLEXj 🍋 ZEST IT FORWARD: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4kJ71lc ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4kJ71lc 📕 PBD'S BOOK "THE ACADEMY": ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/41rtEV4⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/41rtEV4 👔 BET-DAVID CONSULTING: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4lzQph2 ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4lzQph2 📺 JOIN THE CHANNEL: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4g5C6Or⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4g5C6Or 💬 TEXT US: Text “PODCAST” to 310-340-1132 to get the latest updates in real-time! ABOUT US: Patrick Bet-David is the founder and CEO of Valuetainment Media. He is the author of the #1 Wall Street Journal Bestseller “Your Next Five Moves” (Simon & Schuster) and a father of 2 boys and 2 girls. He currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Speaker 00

  This episode is brought to you by Indeed. You're ready to level up your business, but the pressure to find the right person to make that happen is intense. Indeed sponsored jobs can help carry the load. It boosts your job post to help it reach quality talent fast. Cut through the chaos with Indeed sponsored jobs. Get a $75 sponsored job credit at indeed.com/podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Hiring now? Then this is a job for Indeed sponsored jobs.

• 0:30Speaker 01

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• 1:08Speaker 02

  Adam, what's your point? The future looks bright.

• 1:12Speaker 03

  My handshake is better than anything I ever signed, right here.

• 1:16Speaker 02

  You are a one of one? My son's right there.

• 1:18Speaker 04

  I don't think I've ever said this before.

• 1:25Speaker 02

  All right, gang. Lots going on. New York City got a new mayor yesterday. Congratulations to you guys. I know you're so excited about it. Those of you guys that voted for him. And those of you that just didn't show up, you helped them become the mayor. And I'm happy for you because that's what you wanted. I like to celebrate other people's victories. And it was a very weird day yesterday. Cause a lot of, a lot of Democrats won yesterday. New Jersey, we got a list of them, Rob. We're going to go through on Virginia. The only guy that had a rough night yesterday was this, our Somali friend, who said the future is bright, but it just, today's future, it wasn't bright for him. He's the only guy that didn't. I think they're still counting the numbers, Rob, if I'm not mistaken, with Jacob Frey. But everything else was a great night for the Democrats. We got a lot of things to talk about.

• 2:10Speaker 02

  What does this really mean to New Yorkers? Uh, when it comes on to homeownership, if you're sitting there wondering about buying a house, we got the four-time crystal ball winner for real estate Barry Habib in the house here. Barry, great to see you, buddy.

• 2:22Speaker 05

  I have to tell you, I'm so, so happy to be here with you.

• 2:25Speaker 02

  We're happy to have you as well. And what we want to know is, the younger audience wants to know, should I buy a house? Should I wait? What's going on with the interest rates? I know you got a bunch of numbers to share with guys. Uh, there's a reason why you win, not once, not twice, not three times, but four times, because he historically keeps making better predictions than his peers does, to the point where he is now a board member of, I think, Fannie Mae?

• 2:48Speaker 05

  Fannie Mae.

• 2:48Speaker 02

  Fannie Mae, okay. So let's go through some of these stories. Trump officials torpedoed, Nvidia's push to export AI chips to China. Uh, then you have risky loans from housing bust eras making a comeback. Is this a good thing or a bad thing? According to Wall Street Journal. Miami Realtors pitched safe spaces for millionaires fleeing Maldonys, New York. Are Trump's tariffs making money? Watch this chart. This is from Politico, we'll talk about it. How the economy has defied doomsday predictions and tariffs. Brandon's got some thoughts on that. Businesses press Supreme Court to strike down Donald Trump's emergency tariff power. This is from Financial Times. What do you mean businesses are pushing Supreme Court to not allow the president to use tariffs?

• 3:33Speaker 02

  Can you imagine that? Supreme Court cannot stop all Trump tariffs. Deal with it, officials say. U.S. has only scratched the surface of its oil potential

• 3:45Speaker 02

  as emerging technology strengthens energy outlook. Federal Reserve's Lisa Cook signals December rate cuts is not a foregone conclusion. Powell kinda hinted that they're not gonna do it, but she's saying there may be. The question becomes, is it gonna be another quarter? Could it be a half? We'll see what's gonna happen there. We'll follow up on that.

• 4:04Tom Ellsworth?

  When is she being deposed? What's she commenting on?

• 4:08Speaker 02

  More home purchases are falling through in an uncertain economy. It's now a good time to refinance your mortgage. Fraudulent rental application surge nationwide as housing cost remains elevated. If you're in the mode to have a decision, you're trying to make a decision to buy a house. Today's going to be a good podcast for you. Big tech, big tech is spending more than ever on AI and it's still not enough. Professors catch dozens of students. Guys, this is a phenomenal story. Please hear me out when I'm reading this story. I'm going to read it slow. Ready? Professors catch dozens of students using AI to write apology letters for using the same tools to cheat on class.

• 4:54Speaker 02

  Professor Johnson, I sincerely apologize for my misconduct. And you see that line that always chat GPT has, wait a minute. Why is everybody using the same letter? MIT report 95% of generative AI pilots are at companies are failing. That's a Fortune magazine story. Michael Burry comes out of nowhere and pisses off Palantir CEO. Did you see his reaction? Oh yeah, he's freaking out. Do you have that video? He is free. How dare you, Michael Burry? Aren't you supposed to stick to water after Big Short? Didn't you say at the end of the movie, Big Short, the next big investment? I'm going to go after his water. Why are you coming after Nvidia? You guys have to see this guy's position and he publicly posted to everybody.

• 5:36Speaker 02

  Here's what he thinks is going to happen to these companies, Nvidia and Palantir. And the last time he did that, he was right, the last time he did that. So after bubble warning with fewer safety nets, robbed Gen X is facing a retirement crisis. Top advisor says Netflix hires investment bank to explore a bit for Warner Brothers. Discovery report, we talked about Disney last time. Let me give you an update from my perspective of what I think is going on with Disney. Maybe I'll send some of those numbers to Rob to show you guys. Spotify gained subscribers as app offering expands. And last but not least, YouTube TV, the nice Disney bit to restore ABC for election day. Let me read it to you one more time. YouTube TV, the nice bit.

• 6:18Speaker 02

  To restore ABC for election day. So Disney comes to YouTube, it's like, look, I know. We're kind of like thinking about taking all our stuff off your app. But can you please restore ABC for election day? And YouTube says, nope, we're not doing it. What? Yep, you're trying to screw us? We're not going to let you have it. Move on. That's, I mean, listen, it doesn't look like they're going to do a deal. Because if there was going to be a deal, YouTube probably would have said yes. But apparently, nothing's going to be happening there, which is kind of what we talked about last week. And then, of course, we have to talk about yesterday, the election, all the stuff that happened. People are freaking out. We got some things, a couple of clips to show you. M'Donny's victory speech. Everybody thought it was going to be a unifying speech. And then even Van Jones is like, whoa. I wasn't expecting this kind of a speech.

• 7:03Speaker 02

  Sounded a little bit venomous. And Scott Jennings is like, where is your unifying, wonderful guy? What happened? I keep track of so. You got to see this clip. Obviously, the CEO of CNN, Scott Jennings. Did a great job saying what he's saying. Now, let's go into one thing before we get into our stories. 2026 is around the corner. Craziness is going on. For some of you guys that have big plans for 2026. I will remind you, whatever you do, do not go into 2026 without a business plan. It'll be a big mistake you're making. There are way too many moving parts. You know, every year when we do the business planning workshop, I openly talk about what threats and events we're concerned about happening the next year.

• 7:48Speaker 02

  We openly share with you. Here's what we're looking at. Here's what we're seeing as possible enemy. And here's what we're seeing as an operator, the opportunities that exist for us. And we openly share it with you. We share with you how we're growing our YouTube channel and our media company. What our consulting firm is going. We're sharing our strategies with you. If you're somebody watching this saying, I'm sick and tired of playing small. I want to take my life and my business to the next level. The business planning workshop on December 12th is for you. But number two, if you're somebody that's running a business and you are already a millionaire. We have a lot of people that watch this content. You're doing 10 million a year, 100 million a year. Maybe you're doing a billion a year, you've got a couple thousand employees. But you've gotten to a point where you're bored and it's repetitive. And it's just kinda like you're doing the same thing over and over and over again.

• 8:31Speaker 02

  This is a very, very good event to even wake you up as a leader of the company. So quietly, you can kinda get on the business planning workshop. It's not something that you have to be physically here from anywhere in the world. So if you haven't yet registered yet, click on a link below. Uh, get registered, December 12th, let's spend an entire day together. We go through 200-page manual together, which everybody will get. Or you can go to bpw.betdavidconsulting.com. Again, bpw.betdavidconsulting.com. Looking forward to seeing you guys there on December 12th. With that being said, I say we start off with New York City because the top of the line story, what happened yesterday, Rob. Can we start off with, uh, the numbers? So yesterday, New York City, everybody's wondering, is Curtis Lee what gonna be the reason why, you know, Cuomo doesn't win?

• 9:15Speaker 02

  And you look at the numbers, multiple charts. Mamdani roughly, I mean, you're showing this, Rob, but there's another one to show for that's exact, because this is not the exact one. There's one that you look at where it shows you, you know, without him, if, if Mamdani was in the race, you know, if he was not in the race, what would have happened? Mamdani wins, Cuomo second, Sliva's third. Cuomo gives a very nice speech. Hey, congratulations to Mamdani. Incredible job campaigning. One of the best campaigns ever put together. The groundwork, he was very complimentary of what he had to say about him. Sliva was very angry. Sliva did the Sliva thing. He went out there and said, if you guys do anything to the streets, we're gonna mobilize, we're gonna unify, we're gonna mobilize. He gave that kind of a message.

• 9:58Speaker 02

  Uh, uh, uh, but at the same time, while everyone was thinking Mamdani could be a unifier, this was a speech that he gave yesterday. This was his victory speech. And when you hear this victory speech, he sings a song. Not, not, not Frank Sinatra, not an English song, you know, Born in the USA, not, not, not any of that stuff, a very different song. But I want you to watch this. He still maintains a smile, but tell me if he sounds excited, unifying, or angry. Go ahead, Rob.

• 10:26Speaker 07

  If anyone can show a nation betrayed by Donald Trump, how to defeat him, it is the city that gave rise to him.

• 10:38Speaker 07

  And if there is any way to terrify a despot, it is by dismantling the very conditions that allowed him to accumulate power.

• 10:48Speaker 02

  How many people are in that room? What does it sound like?

• 10:50Speaker 07

  This is not only how we stop Trump.

• 10:52Speaker 02

  What do you think?

• 10:53Speaker 07

  It's how we stop the next one.

• 10:54Speaker 05

  Yeah, a couple thousand.

• 10:55Speaker 07

  So Donald Trump, since I know you're watching, I have four words for you. Turn the volume up.

• 11:09Speaker 02

  Can you, can you put the clip, Rob, of what he said about Cuomo? Where he said, "This is the last time I will ever say the Cuomo name again." But listen to this one, folks.

• 11:20Speaker 07

  My friends, we have toppled a political dynasty. I wish Andrew Cuomo only the best in private life. But let tonight be the final time I utter his name. As we turn the page on a politics that abandons the many and answers only to the few. After all, if anyone can show a nation betrayed by Donald Trump how to defeat him, it is the city that gave rise to him.

• 11:58Speaker 02

  You can pause it right there. All right, so what are your thoughts on what happened on some of New York City, Barry?

• 12:03Speaker 05

  Well, first of all, I, when you look at the numbers, pretty good chance that he would not have won if, let's just say, it was either Sliwa or Cuomo had backed out. So that's one. So I'm not, I'm not so sure this is a mandate that, that New York City totally got behind and wanted. His speech, I think it pretty much speaks for itself. You know, it's, it's not a unifying speech. It's not something that, that is, we're gonna, we're gonna work together. This is a very divisive speech and I, I don't think that that portends good things when you are, when you're being divisive.

• 12:39Speaker 02

  Yeah, and if you look at this here, Tom, this is the numbers. Mamdani, 50% million, 6,000 votes. Cuomo, 831,000 votes. Sliwa, 143. If you combine the two together, puts it at nine. 75 ish, so would have lost by 30,000 votes. I don't know what the rest is, if there's a couple of other things on the bottom, but some other chart said that there was a chance of Sliva would have stepped out for Mamdani to win. Having said that, Tom, what do you think about what happened last night? How, how big of a victory is this? Cause I got, I got a lot of thoughts about this, which I'll share here in a minute. But what are you thinking, Tom?

• 13:10Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, if I just look at the numbers, the numbers were tightening up over the last two weeks and they were tightening up because finally Andrew Cuomo was running a campaign that was sort of, uh, had been a little tone deaf and a little bit stale, I think. Um, as, as you thought, felt the same way. We were calling for him to do it and he tightened it up and it was an eight, this was supposed to be, um, a 14 to 16 point spread. It's an eight point spread right now. So this tightened up significantly. So number one, it's, I, I agree with Barry, this is not a mandate. But number two, what really worries me, this is, listen to his speech. This is authoritarian speech. This is, this is the kind of call and response.

• 13:55Tom Ellsworth?

  It's a dog, dog was back to the, kind of the Mussolini days and the kind of things that he promised to the people there. Now, he was a terrible, terrible dustpot, but listen to how he gained power and what he promised to the people. Free this and make the trains run on time, very famous and all that. And you know what really was alarming to me? And there's a lot of these out there, Rob, I just sent it to you. Look at this, Pat. This is an intern and this is confirmed. She is an intern and this, this is current. So by all sources that we looked at, this is not AI and this is not something from time gone by. But look at this. This is all jihad. This is all Abada. This is all counted by Allah. How committed I am to this.

• 14:38Tom Ellsworth?

  What am I willing to sacrifice for the noble cause? What they're saying is, she is saying, this is the start of holy war and jihad in America. I'm not making that up. That's what she said in her language, her words. And so they see, now listen to Mandami. He's not there to unify. He's not there to reach across the aisle. He is telling people. Exactly what they're doing dismantle turn the page listen to the verb words this is kind of this is scary this is the same wave that happened in Minneapolis outside of the view of so many Americans and what's happening there this this this is heavy Pat this is not just about the mayor of New York City and and how Cuomo should have started the

• 15:22Tom Ellsworth?

  campaign differently and sooner this is that people in New York City were realizing it it was tightening up but it was too late and now they got it and you listen to what they're saying that they're they're coming they're saying we're coming we're not here to unify with you we are coming and there is a higher calling and a jihad and what we're coming to change you

• 15:43Speaker 05

  We're here to take it down

• 15:44Tom Ellsworth?

  Right and they're they're being very open and again from everything we've been able to find Rob and I look she is the intern those were her words and that was last night

• 15:54Speaker 02

  She said that last night Rob?

• 15:55Tom Ellsworth?

  Uh yeah I believe so yeah cuz this came out 15 hours ago

• 16:00Speaker 02

  Let me let me hear let me just hear what she says

• 16:01Speaker 07

  The true believer knows that none of this is in vain that this is all jihad that this is all Ibadah and that this is all counted for by Allah SAW and so the conversation of doxing the conversation of getting arrested and suspended I think it's time for Muslims to start to say alright alright so what do what you want I'm gonna do I'm gonna do what I gotta do because that's it's it's about time to do that and I know everybody has their own families and has an education and everything just a question we don't want to get doxed and we don't want to get suspended and we don't want to get arrested

• 16:38Speaker 02

  You can pause that I have so much to say Brandon I'll come to you and I'll give the thoughts and I will move on go ahead

• 16:44Speaker 07

  I mean like what do we expect I mean I I'm honestly wondering if the powers that be put Cuomo in place just to put a candidate they knew was gonna lose cuz he's I mean if you wanna think of a guy who's universally hated in New York by both Democrats and Republicans like who better than Cuomo it's like when they got Woodrow Wilson elected they got um was they put like three candidates in the race just so that he would win he won with like 30% of the margin so I wonder if this is an intentional attempt to destroy The city because yeah, now they officially let a wolf in the hen house where you know this city as much hate as we give New York a lot of time for the things that they we disagree with. It is the like the pillar of America. It's the biggest GDP. It's 5% of the US GDP. It's the biggest city in the country by a lot. It's like $2 trillion in GDP. The next biggest is a trillion.

• 17:28Speaker 07

  I mean, they already lost a trillion dollars of wealth from 2020 to 2023. So this is gonna drive job creators out and bring in the worst types of people. So yeah, it's gonna look like Gotham City and I hope that they could survive long enough for people to learn how to actually um who to vote for, what kind of policies they should have.

• 17:45Speaker 05

  You know, to your point, I agree with you. And to your point, there's a lot of people that would never vote for Cuomo because of what happened during COVID and they lost people. There's a lot of women that are gonna resent Cuomo because of allegations and situations where he was disrespectful, to say the least. So he had a lot of the decks stacked against him from voters that he would normally need. So I agree with you. Why why run somebody like that? Who doesn't really, you know, doesn't really have support that's needed to win this thing.

• 18:14Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 18:15Speaker 02

  You know what I would say? Here's what I would say. Now I wanna watch a couple of these clips, Van Jones. And remember, guys, Wednesdays is all business. So how does this relate to you business-wise? Because here's how I look at it from the business standpoint on Wednesdays. Let's talk strategy. If if Christians in the world were in the business of going and converting everybody else and they started targeting like Muslims may be targeting the Western ideology. What if we targeted their ideology? What city would you go after? What's the number one city when you think about Muslims? What is the number one city in the world? Think about the number one city in the world for Muslims. Where is it? Tell me the city. What do you think? I'm asking. Is it Mecca? Is it? What would you say is the number one city?

• 19:01Speaker 02

  Would you say, pick it, is it is it Mecca? Is it is it Saudi? Is it Tehran? Is it? Where do you go to? Whatever that city is. Imagine if you go. And you take that city over and the leader of that city is officially a Christian. What's the likelihood of this happening? Oh, zero. What's the likelihood of a Christian capitalist taking over Mecca? What is it? You know what the likelihood is? Zero. Right. So, check this out. Flip it. If the Islam religion comes to you and they hire you as a consultant. You are the consulting firm. You dot inc, right? You're incorporated. We are hiring you.

• 19:42Speaker 02

  We want to impose our ideology on the western cities. What is the number one city for us to go to? To be able to share this ideology with? What do you think is the number one city on that list? New York City. New York City? Boom, we got victory. They just won. And they took over that city. Congratulations to you. Do you know if you're a Muslim, how massive of a victory this is for them? It's massive. Here's the question. Do Americans? Who the founding fathers built the greatest country in the world ever? That did in 249 years what a couple of countries couldn't do in thousands of years? Will they protect it? Or will they be walking on eggshells and saying? It's not a big deal.

• 20:26Speaker 02

  No one's gonna be leaving New York City. Here's the reality. To all the people that are saying no one's leaving New York City. To all the people that saw that, what is it? Unusual whales or whatever that account is that says? Yeah. 756,000 New Yorkers will definitely, key word. Are definitely moving out of New York City if Imam Ali wins. This is 9% of New York City residents. Saying they definitely would move out of New York City if he wins. An additional 2.12 New Yorkers, a million New Yorkers that they would consider leaving. Should he take office? Here's the reality of it. Let's flip it. Forget about who's moving out of New York City. Here's my question for you. Who's moving to New York City? You ready? Let's talk about who it's a good climate for now.

• 21:09Speaker 02

  There's a video clip of him saying, "Why are we putting people in jail? He wants to release them." "If you're a criminal, hello, I'm moving to New York City." "Number two, if you're an illegal immigrant, are you kidding me? "I'm moving to New York City." "What if you're a Muslim? "Oh my, I got Dearborn, I got a Muslim mayor in the biggest, number one city in America? "I'm moving to New York City." "So guess what to all the people that said, 'Nobody will leave New York City.'" "It's about who's coming to New York City." "You're welcome." "And they're gonna come in a bunches. You know how I know this? "I would ask, 'Why did Armenians move to Glendale? "Why do Syrians go to Torlock?

• 21:54Speaker 02

  "Why do Syrians go to Chicago? "Why do Persians go to Beverly Hills? "Because the first Armenian influencer moved to Glendale, "then their families moved, then everybody else moved, then the world moved to Glendale." "Because the first Assyrian influencer moved to Torlock, "everybody else moved. Moved to Detroit, everybody else moved. "Because the first Persian, Middle Eastern moved to Beverly Hills, everybody else moved." "What do you think's gonna happen right now to New York City? "You voted for this, folks. "You voted for this, and you are welcome. "And your population is about to increase." "Everybody else saying it's gonna decrease, I think it's gonna go up. "My opinion. I hope I'm wrong.

• 22:36Speaker 02

  "I'm a minority owner of the Yankees. Trust me, I hope I'm wrong. "But for the people that are like, 'How dare you say such a thing like this? "And you're, shame on you, you should not be an owner of this.'" "No, no. "If I lived in New York City, I would be more vocal than sitting on the sidelines "saying this'll never happen, and not going out there rallying other people to vote." "You got what, I was vocal in 2024, 'Cause I knew I didn't want Kamala. "I was vocal in 2020, I risked it. "Even though I hadn't sold, I was vocal in 2016, we risked it." "You know what it was like to talk pro-Trump in 2016? "Everybody was walking on XLs, doing that. "Everybody was walking on XLs in 2020, and then nobody else was walking on XLs in 2024."

• 23:19Speaker 02

  "So my concern, him and I were talking earlier, saying, 'Don't you think this is what America needs? "Don't you think we almost need this case study "to be able to show that work, what works and what doesn't work?'" "And I said, 'Look.'" I get it. I went on Jubilee and I said, I hope Mamdani wins for us to come back and do this four years later so you can see exactly what the stats are. But here's what I will tell you. Do you think if you want your kids to know how bad drugs are, would you say, why don't you try a little bit of fentanyl, see how bad it is? Would you do that? Would you say, why don't you try a little bit of cocaine? You know what the only place is? I had a friend of mine who was so addicted to drugs. It got to a point that he was trying everything. Guess what we could do at that time? Nothing. I took him to rehab.

• 24:03Speaker 02

  I took him to all these other things that we would. I took him to Bible study in Pasadena. Every Friday night, I would pick him up, take him. So he's in the car with me and I would see him go in his car and his black car and he would take the pills and it would take him. I would take the pill out of his hand. He's fighting me and another guy at the back of Shakers in Glendale saying, give it back to you. I'm not giving back to you. Done. Couple of months later, he dies. Young age, 27 years old. He passes away. Till today, I think about it. This guy was a phenom. He's a fun guy to be around. I liked him a lot. There are certain things in America you shouldn't flirt with. This is one of them. Don't ever second guess why America became the greatest country in the world. I'm an immigrant. I wasn't born here. I was born in Iran. And then I went to Germany, then I came here.

• 24:48Speaker 02

  There's no place like America. Nothing. I'm grateful to be here and I'm going to do my part. I don't need to do this. I don't need another sponsor to pay my bills. I live a very good life. The only reason we're doing this and being this vocal is because I know they're not going to slow down. I know they're not. And I know America's worth it. I know the right policies are worth it. I know what we have right now as the greatest country in the world, we have to do our part. But if you think this is it, this isn't it. By the way, here's Van Jones. Watch as a speech of Mamdani. And then Van Jones reacts this way. Here's what Van Jones had to say. Is this Van? Yeah, this is Van Jones. Watch this one here. Go ahead.

• 25:27Speaker 00

  This episode is brought to you by Indeed. You're ready to level up your business, but the pressure to find the right person to make that happen is intense. Indeed sponsored jobs can help carry the load. It boosts your job post to help it reach quality talent fast. Cut through the chaos with Indeed sponsored jobs. Get a $75 sponsored job credit at indeed.com/podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Hiring now? Then this is a job for Indeed sponsored jobs.

• 25:57Speaker 01

  Visible puts the ultimate wireless hack in the palm of your hand. With unlimited 5G wireless data and hotspot designed to keep you connected. Powered by Verizon's 5G network. And, no contract holding you back. Plans start at $25 a month. Or get the premium Visible Plus Pro Plan and save $10 on your first month when you use promo code HACK. Make the switch at visible.com. Terms apply. See visible.com for details.

• 26:29Speaker 01

  Scott?

• 26:30Speaker 07

  Oh. Are you saying he didn't, he wasn't the unifying voice of a generation that you predicted mere moments ago?

• 26:38Speaker 02

  He doesn't know what to say.

• 26:39Speaker 07

  Where was the, where was the man that you predicted would not slice and dice the other? Look, guys, he started his speech by quoting Eugene Debs, who ran for president of the United States, five times as the Socialist Party of America candidate. He repeatedly attacked people in this.

• 26:58Speaker 02

  Scott spent on Google though.

• 26:59Speaker 07

  Oh no, I know my socialists, I keep a close eye on them.

• 27:02Speaker 02

  I probably keep a close eye.

• 27:04Speaker 07

  So, here's the thing. He went after everybody that he thinks is a problem. People who own things, people who have businesses. He said an interesting quote, "No problem too large for government to solve."

• 27:21Speaker 04

  Or too small, important.

• 27:23Speaker 07

  And so, when you think of the world that way, that every problem, no matter how small or how large, is something for government to do. Let me just decipher this for you. Tax increases as far as the eye can see, which means the people who need to provide jobs to the young people that you say need jobs are going to flee as quickly as they possibly can. I think this was a divisive speech, and he clearly sees the world in terms of the people who are oppressing you and the oppressed, and he said, "The oppressed are now in City Hall."

• 27:58Speaker 02

  Okay, go ahead. Um, yeah, so to play devil's advocate to what you were saying, um, I think that potentially...

• 28:04Speaker 07

  Sometimes with the drug acts, people who are addicted to drugs, the biggest life-changing experience could be when a near-death experience with an overdose, and I think that this is going to be an overdose moment, and I think even you said the other day that you think that a Republican's going to win the mayor or the governor.

• 28:17Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 28:18Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 28:18Speaker 02

  Tom said that first with Stefanik, so yes, we talked about it.

• 28:21Speaker 07

  And I do think that that could happen, because it was only a five-point victory last time when Lee Zeldin ran against Kathy Hochul. So I do think that that could be the best-case scenario.

• 28:30Speaker 02

  Let me ask you a question. Let me ask you a question.

• 28:31Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 28:32Speaker 02

  Sincerely, would you rather have a Republican of New York City or Republican of the state?

• 28:37Speaker 07

  So governor or mayor?

• 28:39Speaker 02

  Would you rather have governor or mayor?

• 28:40Speaker 07

  Well, people in New York say that the mayor has much more influence over the city, but I think the governor couldn't have more power over the city than the mayor if it got to like a power contest.

• 28:51Speaker 02

  I agree, but if we were to go right now, the last 40 years, and ask you to list out the mayors of the last 40 years, are you more likely to be able to name the last 40 year mayors or governors?

• 29:00Speaker 07

  Mayors.

• 29:01Speaker 02

  Mayors. So to me, there are certain states you want governor. Florida, you want governor. Texas, you want governor. Okay? There's a lot of states you want, but there's only one state where you want the city, and that's New York City. Trust me, I'm giving Muslims a ma... This is the greatest victory they've had. This is a massive victory. I would be celebrating off the top of my lungs, if I'm a Muslim and I'm an Islamist, celebrating off the top of my lungs what they just got. I'm celebrating if I'm a socialist. I'm so... I took down the city that was built on capitalism with socialism. These idiots voted for us, that's what I would be saying privately.

• 29:44Speaker 02

  We got these idiots, they don't understand New York City was built on capitalists, and we took it away from them. These guys have such a short memory, don't worry, they will not be grateful for the people that built the buildings, they will not be grateful for the people that built the bridges, we're going to come in and tell them rich people are bad and they're going to side with us. Trust me, I'm going to be able to do that, and he did. This is such a massive monumental victory. Why am I saying this? This is too much. Hey, man, you better wake the hell up.

• 30:14Speaker 07

  Survivor.

• 30:15Speaker 02

  Only the paranoid survive.

• 30:17Tom Ellsworth?

  It's basically use their freedoms in our advantage. Use their open elections to our advantage. And make yourself a victim and line up with these guys over here. That's our path to victory. That's how it worked. By the way, I'm quoting the Omar playbook. They have said these things. This is not my speculations. This is what they've said. We will use their open elections against them. We will use their freedoms to walk in. And then we call out the oppressed. And the dog whistle is heard by the Democrats that will support us. And now they're turning around and looking at it. You better be careful what you're looking at. Because there's a lot of things that you believe in.

• 30:59Tom Ellsworth?

  That if they want to invoke the tenants of their laws and their systems. Don't play well with a lot of Democrat positions at all. And what you don't realize is the puppy grows up and it becomes a rottweiler. And it forgets that you raised it because it's the way it's bred.

• 31:17Speaker 05

  Yeah, I'd like to get your thoughts to see from a business perspective. I know we saw there was significant amount of people who either said they'll definitely leave or consider leaving. So people say things they don't always follow through. What do you think realistically would be the fallout? And then, you know, how does that affect the states that they go to? How does that affect the economy if they're the upper income earners, generators, job providers? Do they move their businesses? Do they move themselves? What do you think the real percentage is of people that actually leave?

• 31:50Speaker 02

  Well, you know, to me, it's no different than people who said, if Trump gets elected, I'm leaving the country. What percentage of people actually did that?

• 31:59Speaker 05

  That's what I'm saying.

• 32:00Tom Ellsworth?

  Hollywood, like four people?

• 32:02Speaker 02

  What I'm trying to say is it's a small percentage. So when they say 756,000 is going to leave, definitely leave? What do you think is actually going to leave?

• 32:10Speaker 05

  That's what I'm saying. Maybe, what, 5,000 people?

• 32:13Speaker 02

  Maybe. Do you think that you think the number is 5,000?

• 32:15Tom Ellsworth?

  No, no, it's it's like Hollywood. They're they're in Santa Monica having their lattes quietly talking to each other that they enjoy the tax break.

• 32:21Speaker 02

  What do you think the number is?

• 32:23Tom Ellsworth?

  Of the 750?

• 32:24Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 32:25Tom Ellsworth?

  Um, I'll go with 10%. Do I think 75 to 100,000 people?

• 32:28Speaker 02

  Okay, so Tom, just so you know. But here's the question.

• 32:31Tom Ellsworth?

  I I look at I look at realtor stats down here in South Florida. I look at the license plates. I look at what's happening, although we're in season right now. It's hard to measure the Canadian and the New York and the Pennsylvania plates uh that that are in for informal polling measure of South Florida.

• 32:45Speaker 02

  Correct.

• 32:45Tom Ellsworth?

  But I I believe there's 75 to 100 coming down. There's a lot of realtors that would support the fact that they're not that number, but there's a wave.

• 32:52Speaker 07

  Remember the move from 2020 to 2023, there were a trillion dollars of wealth left in New York just because of that.

• 32:57Speaker 02

  And California.

• 32:58Speaker 07

  Yeah, so if it gets, I send Rob those charts if you want to show them, but if it gets worse than that, then it could be very.

• 33:03Speaker 05

  What's really going to be critical is are they the job creators and job providers?

• 33:07Tom Ellsworth?

  Hmm.

• 33:07Speaker 05

  Because if they move their businesses down here and now, you know, you could, it's it's different than than things were previous to COVID where work from anywhere was not as easy to be accomplished or is not as popular or accepted. With that being much more accepted, you can shift your business down here and and that's a big deal. Uh, let's face it, Florida is going to have a lot more attractive tax situations. Texas, a lot more attractive tax situations. There's many states that can be more attractive than New York from a cost perspective. Maybe this is the excuse you were waiting for to move your business, to move your residents out.

• 33:41Tom Ellsworth?

  You make a really good point. We don't need people just to come drop 15 on a new place in Manala Plan and then have your advisor now on Worth Avenue.

• 33:49Speaker 05

  Yes.

• 33:49Tom Ellsworth?

  That's what we need. We need people that are going to come down here and say, wow, what a great place. And let me build down here and let me bring and let me create the jobs down here.

• 33:56Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 33:57Speaker 02

  Yes, and listen, the reality of it is, it's already happened. He's in. We're going to see what's going to happen next. The story comes out Financial Times. Miami Realtors Pitch Safe Spaces For Millionaires Fleeing. Mom, Donnie's New York. I'm coming to you with this one, Bob, uh, Barry. So if you want to pull up this video, Rob, I think you got a video on this one here. Uh, let me go to this one. I'll read it and then we can turn over to the video. So a few days af- uh, before a mayoral election, luxury real estate developers, Isaac told. Toldadano joked that a lot of Floridians are going to give Mamdani an award for being a best broker of the year. Toldadano is one of several Miami-based developers hoping to cash in on what they anticipate will be an influx of high-net worth New Yorkers

• 34:39Speaker 02

  escaping to the Sunshine State if democratic socialist Mamdani wins the city's mayoral race this week. Fears that Mamdani's left-wing policies will drive the wealthy. Rob, you have a video on this one? Yeah. Will leave fear that Mamdani's left-wing policies have circulated since the 34-year politician unexpectedly clinched a democratic primary. Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, who has poured cash into opposing Mamdani's campaign, predicted an exodus of companies and individuals to New York. Go ahead, Rob.

• 35:07Speaker 01

  On you at 6, some here in South Florida have their eyes on the race for mayor in New York City. That was an interesting point. South Florida realtors say they've been contacted by New Yorkers already looking to move to the Sunshine State if self-described democratic socialist Zoran Mamdani is elected mayor of New York City. CBS News Miami's Bree Buckley looks into it.

• 35:30Speaker 04

  A lot of people are worried. Isaac Toldadano is the CEO and founder of BH Group Miami, a high-end real estate development firm. He says the race for mayor in New York City could impact South Florida. We already see a lot of New York buyers and their brokers and agents and representatives already looking to buy real estate and getting information. His clients say they're worried if self-described democratic socialist Zoran Mamdani is elected mayor that crime will rise as well as taxes. He campaigned to lower the cost of living for the working class, proposing a rent freeze and free bus service, partially funded by raising taxes 2% for top earners. Mamdani has been leading the polls against Republican

• 36:15Speaker 04

  current.

• 36:16Speaker 02

  Because it's official now. So what do you think? You think it's going to be a big net positive for South Florida and Florida and real estate?

• 36:22Speaker 05

  I think it will have an influence because of the two things that were mentioned there. One is, obviously, taxes do have an impact. We know that, right? In Florida, there's zero state income tax. And then, when you look at the crime, you talked about it earlier. If crime rises and if there's extraordinarily lenient

• 36:42Speaker 05

  Laws towards criminals and you invite more criminals in because of that incentive. There's only so much that people could take because you worry about your safety. I think that that could be, those two items could be big influencers. And if you have people move down here, right now, we have a bit more supply in Florida. So I don't think it would have a big influence on prices immediately. I think it would just stabilize things, maybe some modest gains. But if, if the trend continued, it could push prices higher here. There's also a lot of development too, so we have to weigh the two against each other.

• 37:14Speaker 02

  Tom, what do you think?

• 37:16Tom Ellsworth?

  So, um, well, I think there's two things. There's the emotional response and the surveys you see now. And then there's the, um, the reality of it. And the reality of it is that what he's doing is going to have an immediate economic impact on New York. The taxes are coming, things are happening, he's really doing things. So it's not just the guy got elected that I don't like, okay. And he's stalemated because the city council's over here and these guys are over here. And then you know, they get stalemated, just like a president gets stuck. So nothing really changes in your life yet. But what he's talking about is about to change. And I think when people see what's coming to New York and people see the tax rates

• 37:59Tom Ellsworth?

  and they feel the change and they see the businesses that did move out. Remember, elections swing on four points in the middle. And right now, there's a swing that's going to happen and people are going to feel it. So I think they're going to be going. Now, are they going to be, is it going to be like we saw from, um, and we, we, remember, we've seen this story. We, we saw it in the stats from, um, U-Haul. U-Haul that was paying college students, I think it was $2,000 for two college students to drive a U-Haul from Dallas back to California during spring break. They were saying, hey, spring break job from U-Haul, because they had too many trucks that had come to, uh, Texas. And so when you start seeing that, I think it's going to be very, very real.

• 38:43Tom Ellsworth?

  But I think he's going to start doing things on day one. He can't wait. And that, along with that was left, the, I, that's why I think you're going to. See that first wave come and they're gonna they're gonna come down here but to back to Barry's point a very good point. I want them come down here with your roofing business come down here with your heating air conditioning business. We have a shortage. Come down here with your home services businesses. We have shortages. Come down here with your your window retrofit businesses. We have shortages of people available to do those jobs and find affordable housing outside the city areas. For your for your people. That's that's what I want. I think they're gonna move. I think I think it's gonna move because he's really gonna do stuff.

• 39:26Speaker 05

  I think the safety issue the safety issue is a big one. That's a big one.

• 39:30Speaker 02

  Here's a clip of him talking about letting out prisoners. Go ahead, Rob.

• 39:33Speaker 07

  Oftentimes we've even found as legislators when we go into these courts, the term violent crime is even used when people are stealing packages. Violent crime is even used when people are accused of burglary and there happens to be a housing unit in that same dwelling. So violence is an artificial construction. We have to be very clear that what is happening here with these district attorneys. That is violence.

• 39:57Tom Ellsworth?

  So the guy.

• 39:59Tom Ellsworth?

  So the guy that broke into your house, a home invasion to rob you, that's artificial.

• 40:03Speaker 05

  Yeah, that's why I mean the safety issue. I think that's what really speaks to people that would drive them to me. Money is important. But your safety, that can be a very visceral response that we got to get out of here.

• 40:14Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, look at what COVID, what was the reason COVID, we had such a reaction to it? You stay home and don't take your kids to school. Excuse me, I'm out of here, right? So was it that? Was it the vaccine? Was it the force? Probably a lot of it was combined, but one of it was, you know, your kids can't go to school. Let me go to a place where my kids can't go to school. I'm gonna go to Florida. I'm gonna go to a different place.

• 40:37Speaker 05

  And by the way, the number of votes that Cuomo got, I'm not saying that people are going to the polls saying, oh, Cuomo, yeah. I think it was hold my nose and it's not a vote for Cuomo. It's a vote that I can't I can't risk having one down.

• 40:49Speaker 02

  Yeah, yeah. Brandon. This is gonna be bad for Florida. I mean, there's only 220,000 open homes for sale right now and then there's 385,000 millionaires in New York. Like right now, it's insane. Like, look at a million dollar house down the. Street from here or any like any average looking house. It's like a million dollars and then for five hundred thousand you get a concrete box. So no, I think this is like between cutting rates and this it's gonna be a bad situation in Florida for real estate. Yeah. So you think cutting rates and you say what you're saying is Yeah. The market is gonna go up, valuation is gonna go up. How could it not? I mean, it's like every single time we cut rates, price of houses and asset prices go up. I mean, it's like a law of nature. Okay. So how do you feel about that? What do you think about what he's saying?

• 41:30Speaker 05

  I I I see it differently. I think that um across the United States, you have about sixty seven percent of people own homes. So prices going up is a good thing. And of the remaining thirty three percent, at least half of those are not in a position where they're going to be truly in the even the market to buy home, the the sixteen year old working at Wendy's, that that God bless them, but they're not they're not truly in the market to purchase a home. And there's many people that it would not be in that position. So how much does home price increases impact those adversely? I think it's you know, look, it's a zero sum game. Some people it benefits, some people it doesn't. But I think it benefits many more people. It benefits the economy.

• 42:14Speaker 05

  Look, home price appreciation is a magical elixir because what it does is it creates wealth. It creates equity. In fact, there's a chart um that you could see that I brought with me that shows that if you took a look at net worth and what it takes to be in the net worth category. It's probably near the end there, Rob, and you'll see for net worth. Um, there's a couple of things I'd love to show. The last slide, Rob, if you pull that up, you could see what it takes to be in the top tier in the United States. You need one top one percent as big number eleven point six million and you could see the tiers. But the real key factor is two thirds of all net worth come from home equity. It is very hard to create wealth

• 42:54Speaker 05

  without being in the real estate game. And the average homeowner's net worth is forty four times that of a renter. Now let me tell you, somebody who's lived through downturns in real estate, I know people wish for it and people say, oh, we need prices to come down. That is a very, very difficult scenario to go through because from a mortgage Side, you can't get a mortgage easily because the appraisers put something called the negative time adjustment. So you say, okay, I could do it with five percent down or 10% down. But the appraiser says this property is going to decline because home prices are coming down. So you need to put 15%, 18%, 20% down because we're anticipating the price to decline. Makes it very, very difficult lenders tighten up. The whole market seizes and then people don't want to buy a home if they see prices coming down.

• 43:38Speaker 05

  They're afraid it's just like the stock market. People buy more stocks as it's going up. People should be buying when it comes out, they don't, right? It's, it's, it's the only things that when they go on sale, people don't want them is real estate and stocks. Right? So, so what happens is that psychology. It materializes through the economy in general and it slows the economy dramatically. And then think about home equity. Home equity is something that is also magical. You could pull on it, you could pay off your debt burden, you can invest with that money. When you, when you sell your home, it could be your retirement plan. So, so look, while I completely get what you're saying and you're, you're a hundred percent right. We don't want runaway appreciation. But I think to see prices come down would probably be worse than that.

• 44:19Speaker 07

  But we're not in a sustainable place right now where it's like, you know, we talk about all the time in the seventies. It was two and a half years of an average salary to buy an average priced house. Today it's like eight or nine years of an average salary to buy an average priced house. And I see what you're saying about the 65% that own houses in the country. But I think you're overlooking like the, the core part of the economy. People ages maybe like 20 to 40 who are looking to buy a house who. I mean, it's a stretch to buy an average priced house right now for a lot of those people. So are we, is that a healthy place to be in where the core of your economy, like the, the young to mid age people can't afford to buy a house?

• 44:53Speaker 05

  It's, it's clearly a problem because what has happened. So you're, you're right there that is, it's clearly a problem because it used to be the median age of a first time home buyer was between 32 and 33 years old. Today that's gone to 40.

• 45:07Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 45:07Speaker 05

  However, I, there's, there's only three levers you could pull for affordability, right? This is not a magic formula. Prices come down, which I just explained why that's not good. The second is interest rates come down. And remember, we have had quite the shock going from very low rates at around three up to eight. Now back in this, let's call it six and a half ish range, six and a quarter. So, you know, there's been quite the shock there along with prices rising. The third is time. And the reason why time is because incomes do rise over time. You don't need all of your income. You don't need it at the same pace because you don't use 100% of your income. You can't do the simple mathematical equation and say, okay, so incomes are rising at 4.6% or 4.7%, we just got these numbers this morning from ADP.

• 45:52Speaker 05

  And home prices are rising at the same level, so you're not gaining ground. You are gaining ground because you only use a third of your income. So that additional disposable income actually helps you gain traction. The math isn't a one for one. If you get, for example, 2% rise in income, you can withstand a 4% price rise and still be neutral because of the relative difference and you don't use all your income. You're talking about like the time decay of the mortgage where you're paying less overtime? No, no, it's just that you don't, when you, when you figure out your allocation of your income, you're only using 30, let's call it 30% of your income to purchase a home, on your mortgage or home payment. So you don't need, you, you, you get 5% gain on overall income? That's more than what you need for the increase in home value.

• 46:36Speaker 05

  Yeah, but I mean, how do you apply that to like back in the day though, where like I said, it's two and a half times your income versus eight times your income? Like you don't get as much house as you used to. But you always have to be careful when dealing with medians. Medians is, is, is a, it's a very dangerous game to play because once again, if you look at median income of everyone, that's one thing. But if you say of those who are actually able to buy home, let's exclude the 16-year-olds, let's exclude the 19-year-olds, then the median income becomes much greater when you say those who are actually qualified. I'm completely in agreement that affordability has gotten worse. What I'm saying is there's a lot of clickbait out there that make the picture look a lot worse than it truly is.

• 47:18Speaker 02

  All right, so let, let, let me, let me go maybe to this question here that we got from Yahoo Personal Finance. Is now a good time to refinance your mortgage, right? With everything that's going on with interest rates? You're hearing Lisa, who is coming out saying Lisa Cook signals that rate cut is not a foregone conclusion, whether they're going to do it or not. Rob, I think you got this clip as well to play by Lisa. But in regards to refinancing your mortgage today, I'm gonna read this story to you and then I'm gonna come, so to come to you. This is from Yahoo Personal Finance. Is this a video, Rob? Yes. Okay, play this clip, then I'll read this story, then I'll go to Barry. Go ahead. All right, we got some breaking news from Washington Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who is

• 47:58Speaker 03

  Speaking in DC, Steve Leishman has those headlines. Steve?

• 48:03Speaker 03

  Thanks, Brian. The outlook for Fed policy continues to be somewhat confusing with Fed officials offering different forecasts from each other and even some officials taking both sides of the argument. Lisa Cook, speaking in Washington, said she supported the decision to cut rates last week, but says downside risks to employment are greater than upside risk to inflation. However, she says the current restrictive policy is appropriate, given inflation above the 2% target. Every meeting, she says, including a December meeting, is a live meeting. Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the Fed needs to bring down both inflation and support the job market.

• 48:39Speaker 00

  This episode is brought to you by Indeed. You're ready to level up your business, but the pressure to find the right person to make that happen is intense. Indeed-sponsored jobs can help carry the load. It boosts your job post to help it reach quality talent fast. Cut through the chaos with Indeed-sponsored jobs. Get a $75 sponsored job credit at indeed.com/podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Hiring now? Then this is a job for Indeed-sponsored jobs.

• 49:08Speaker 01

  Visible puts the ultimate wireless hack in the palm of your hand. With unlimited 5G wireless data and hotspot, designed to keep you connected, powered by Verizon's 5G network. And no contract holding you back. Plans start at $25 a month, or get the premium Visible Plus Pro plan and save $10 on your first month when you use promo code HACK. Make the switch at visible.com. Terms apply. See visible.com for details.

• 49:40Speaker 07

  We need to continue to put downward pressure on inflation and keep our policy modestly restrictive, but not hold the reins so tight that we injure the labor market unnecessarily and give people lower inflation, but fewer jobs.

• 49:55Speaker 02

  Okay, so is this, I thought it was gonna be just going straight to the clip. Is this a good time for me to refinance my mortgage today?

• 50:02Speaker 05

  Yeah, it's an excellent time if it makes sense from a rate perspective. For the last three years, two things have happened. People have taken out mortgages at higher rates, but also approximately 59% of them, when they purchased a home, they use something called mortgage insurance because they put less than 20% down. Now thankfully, we've had home price appreciation. One of the great things about it is now you could refinance your home to a lower rate. You could save the delta in rate, and then you could either reduce or remove the mortgage insurance, which means that you can actually save hundreds of dollars. Most people don't look at the mortgage insurance savings that they can get also in conjunction with rate. So yeah, I think it makes an enormous benefit if you could save 300, 400, 500 dollars a month to refinance that. It's real money. And for those people who say, "Well, maybe I'll wait because rates will come down."

• 50:46Speaker 05

  Now, I do think rates come down as well, okay? Nobody knows for sure, but I think there's reason to believe we will see lower rates on mortgages. But if you wait to get that extra 30 or 40 dollars a month, it means you're losing the 300, 400, 500 dollars a month savings you could be taking advantage of now.

• 51:00Speaker 02

  Got it, okay. So, and then the other question I'm gonna come to you is this one. Risky loan from housing bust era is making a comeback, okay? If you, Rob, is this a clip that goes into it? What's this clip about, Rob? If we...

• 51:13Tom Ellsworth?

  This is another Yahoo Finance clip.

• 51:16Speaker 02

  Is it immediately getting into it? Okay, go ahead and play this clip. Yeah, this is good.

• 51:21Speaker 01

  Well, adjustable rate mortgages, which fell out of favor in the aftermath of the financial crisis, are catching on again. Here with the story is senior housing reporter Claire Boston. So Claire, to start here, what exactly is an adjustable rate mortgage? Hi, Ally. So as the name suggests, an adjustable rate mortgage, the interest rate can change over time. Typically these days, you get either a five, seven, or 10-year period where you have a fixed rate on your mortgage. And then after that period expires, if you're still holding that mortgage, the rate will start to adjust based on the prevailing market rate. So that means it could go...

• 51:54Speaker 02

  Higher, it could go lower. In exchange for taking on that extra interest rate risk, you can often get a lower rate than what is available with a 30-year fixed. Right now, 30-year fixed rates are 6.3%, 6.4%. Adjustable rate mortgages will be around 5.8% for that seven or 10-year period. So there's savings there if you're willing to kind of stomach that risk. Okay, so if you're on the positive right there now, this is not the, this is not no income, no assets.

• 52:18Speaker 05

  No, she's got it all wrong.

• 52:20Speaker 02

  Okay, tell us.

• 52:20Speaker 05

  She's got it all wrong. So she's thinking about negative AM, like you said. Those are the risky types of loans. And then the risky underwriting guidelines are exactly what you said. We're not verifying income, asset, down payment. So she's got it wrong. Adjustables, the only reason they went out of favor is because we had an inverted yield curve. The Fed raised rates so much that now you have an inverted yield curve. Where shorter-term rates were above long-term rates. Now that the Fed's been cutting, longer-term rates have come down, but now you have a spread between them. So the reason why we've seen a doubling in the amount of applications on adjustable rate mortgages is because they make sense. As she said, you do have a savings. Right now, half a percent, 5/8 of a percent for seven years. A seven-year fixed period, that amount of savings, if you consider that, it's significant.

• 53:04Speaker 05

  For example, Pat, on a $500,000 mortgage, you'd save about $18,000, $17,000 in the first seven years guaranteed. But what nobody looks at is, this is something that people should look into, is a lower interest rate mortgage like an adjustable would have compared to a fixed, it amortizes more rapidly in the first few years. So you pick up another $5,000 in equity amortization. So now you've got a significant sum of money. Let's call it $22,000 guaranteed in the first seven years. What happens after that is what people worry about. And everybody looks at worst-case scenario. But that's like, that's betting against something that is very, very improbable. Could it happen? It could. However, what's more probable is that you look at, let's say, a 40-year history.

• 53:48Speaker 05

  And let's say that rate goes to somewhere around 7%. 6.96 is the 40-year history of where a fully indexed, meaning what it would adjust to rate goes to. In that particular case, you would never eat into the savings of the first seven years. So I believe it's a very good option to look at. And it shouldn't be something that is vilified like she say, oh, risky mortgages. If you could stomach it. This is something that really can make sense and get somebody into that home, help that affordability issue, because that's the key. Get there so you can create some of that wealth.

• 54:19Speaker 02

  Tom, where are you at with this?

• 54:20Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, I'm a Barry right now, and it's actually a little bit wider. So I'm glad that he was a little conservative and is five eighths of a point. It's actually three quarters of a point to a point. Right now, five and one. What that means is you have one interest rate for five years and one time at the end of the fifth year, you have to now reconcile and your bank will send you a notice and you change your interest once. Not negative amortization, not any of the negatives that go with it. Or seven and one, you have seven years and one time it adjusts. Those are adjustable rates. Really, I've always felt that, you know, you need to make clear, but they're looking for clickbait, they're looking for views, they're looking for their news. Oh, the arm is back, the terrible arm is back.

• 55:05Tom Ellsworth?

  No, it's not. And right now, we are looking at a 70% chance. And by, you know, Lisa Cook, when she took time away from defending herself for having three primary residences, you know, and a little action that she's got with the federal government, is sitting there talking about this. The dot plot right now, which is one of the measurements of the intent of the Fed, has us at a quarter point for December. And there's the CME FedWatch tool this morning was all the way up to 70% chance, up from 61% chance one week ago at the time that the Fed spoke. And so it looks like we're going to get another quarter point.

• 55:44Tom Ellsworth?

  So right now, Pat, people could be looking at the opportunity to get a 5.0% five-year ARM one-time adjustment mortgage that makes getting into a house much easier. And if you have the discipline to say, hey, I would have been paying about another 700 more, I'm going to save that. Now you're saving.

• 56:06Speaker 05

  More plateau.

• 56:06Speaker 02

  Or apply it towards principal.

• 56:08Tom Ellsworth?

  Or make the payment anyway. You can do that. Hey, set it up for my payment and take another 500, apply it to principal. This is how people can now look at homeownership, not just do, what can I barely afford and get into? But a sensible thing. Now, I agree about pricing and one of the things on pricing is supply. And we need regulation to come down so that builders can build more. Cause the supply was also what will bring prices down.

• 56:39Speaker 05

  So, couple of things. Lisa Cook, she, she pretty much echoed Chairman Powell's thoughts on the, it's not a foregone conclusion, monetary policy is now preset. So, we understand she's just echoing that. But what she also said was that the job market is solid, which I don't know how in the world she could possibly say that. We got the ADP numbers today and the ADP numbers, if you look at it for this month, it was pretty dismal at 42,000 job creations. However, if you look at the last three months in aggregate and you say, what have we, what have we constructed in aggregate? Because the last two months were negative numbers.

• 57:22Tom Ellsworth?

  Revised yet again.

• 57:23Speaker 05

  Yeah, yes. A grand total of 10,000 jobs in three months in the United States that were created. That is, that is not a healthy or solid economy. People that are on unemployment benefit, we got a bunch of charts. If you just want to roll through them just real quick, just a one second on each. So if you go to the, yeah, go to the, go to the second one there, right there. Okay, these are job openings. You can see where the chart's headed on job openings. Then you take a look at the next.

• 57:50Speaker 02

  What do you mean by that? Jobs?

• 57:51Speaker 05

  This is job openings and labor.

• 57:52Speaker 02

  Job openings. So people are getting jobs, are getting hired.

• 57:55Speaker 05

  Ads for jobs.

• 57:56Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 57:57Speaker 05

  Now, another thing, Pat, that people don't realize is that the way that this report is constructed is it's not the US government does it in one shot across the board. They go to each state and they say, how many job openings do you have? The reason that's important is because before work from anywhere. You know, if you put an ad, it'd be a local ad. But now I could put six different states where I want an employee. So this is a grossly overstated number. And even while it's overstated at the 7.2 million, it is, look at the trajectory. Pretty clear. Next chart shows you, once you get let go, look at what's happening. It is harder to find a job. So people are staying on unemployment benefits longer. And remember, in most cases, you fall off after six months. So the number is even much worse than this. The next chart shows the ADP report, which we just got today.

• 58:42Speaker 05

  So you could see the last two months were below the red line negative. Today's was above, but when you take the three combined, the three combined gives you a grand total of 10,000 job creations in the United States. That's unacceptable. We have a very big concern in the labor market.

• 58:59Speaker 02

  You're making the argument to say, lower the rates.

• 59:01Speaker 05

  They have to lower rates because we are so restricted.

• 59:03Speaker 02

  By how much? By a point or two?

• 59:06Speaker 05

  So there's a formula for it. There's a formula that says you take the rate of inflation and then you take something that's a little artistic. It's called R star. And Tom knows exactly what I'm talking about. And R star, Stephen Myron, who is a Fed governor, pointed by Trump, he thinks R star is 0.1. You take John Williams, the New York Fed president, he says it's three quarters, most people in the middle. So even if you said it was a half a percent, okay? So that means that the neutral rate for the Fed funds rate would be at 3.4. So we're roughly a half a percent above neutral. But I think the way that you started at 2.9 is fictitious. And here's why. I think when everybody says, we're obsessed with inflation, it's too high. I believe that they're absolutely wrong. They don't understand how to read it. Some quick things.

• 59:49Speaker 05

  Rob, would you mind possibly pulling up the very first chart? And here's the, here's the rate of inflation as measured by the Fed. They look at personal consumption expenditure, PC, they look at the core rate, then they say it's 2.9, we need it to be 2. It is too darn high, right? But when you take a look, even Chairman Powell says tariffs, they're not inflation, it's a one-time price adjustment. Now Chairman Powell thinks it could be up to 0.5%. I'm being conservative. 0.3%, so that's an overstatement. Even the Fed chairman agrees that's an overstatement. OER stands for owner's equivalent rent. Pat, this is the most ridiculous thing out there. And Tom, you know how this works. This is a survey. So a survey, and here's the literal question. If you own a home, the question is, how much could you rent your home for today,

• 1:00:34Speaker 05

  unfurnished and without utilities? Pat, I don't know how much I could rent my home for. Okay, I don't know who does, okay? And then measure the change month to month? It's insane. But yet, this makes up one-third, by far, the largest component in CPI and 14% of PCE. The number that people-

• 1:00:53Tom Ellsworth?

  And they use Zillow estimates, and Zillow will tell you that they cannot describe how they do the rent conversion. Because you look at a house, this house for sale would rent for this. They can't describe how they do that.

• 1:01:05Speaker 05

  But they do have good data. So, for example, the survey that the Fed looks at and uses, and the BLS uses, says rents are going up at 4% a year. This methodology's been in place since 1985 without a change. Now, 1985, you didn't have Zillow, you didn't have Apartment List, you didn't have Cotality, you didn't have the data from Fannie Mae. All of those things say it's actually sub 2%. But if you take 2%, the difference between 2% and 4%, it's enormous, because that means that on PCE, we're overstated by 3/10 of a percent. It's just a BS number. And then the worst one is portfolio management, and nobody looks at this thing. Portfolio management, if you put your money in with a mutual fund,

• 1:01:47Speaker 05

  or with a broker dealer, whatever it is, let's say they charge you 1%. Now, if they went from 1% to 2%, clearly that's inflationary. But if the stock market's going up, and you're making more money, but as a result, their 1% is a greater amount, the BLS says that's inflation. How could they possibly say that? Think about it in reverse, Pat. Think about if we had really bad inflation in the supermarket. Here I am, I go shopping, and I look, oh my gosh, all this inflation. And then I come home, and I open up my mail, and I see my statement. And let's just say, in this case, the stock market's tanking. And because the stock market's tanking, my portfolio management fee is less. Now, the Fed comes out and says, you know what? There is no inflation, because we got the offset from portfolio management fee. I mean-

• 1:02:29Speaker 05

  Think about the ridiculousness of this. So inflation right now is really at 2%. That's where, and it's, that's at the Fed's target. So the Fed should get off their obsessiveness with this silly idea that inflation's too high. And they should worry about the job market, which affects most Americans.

• 1:02:45Speaker 02

  Correct.

• 1:02:46Speaker 07

  Yeah, but I wonder what percent of this is attributed to the Fed's rates being too high. I mean, don't get me wrong. I think that it's crazy with the Fed does things. I think they're politicized right now. But I also, we saw this chart that Umberto showed us the other day that shows a deviation. Normally, jobs, job openings track the S and P 500, but since 2022, they deviated. If you could see us that chart, it shows like, um, half of it shows the job openings that you show, but the other half it shows for the first time that the stock market's going up while job openings are going down since Chat GPT was created. So do you think some of this, with the job openings being less and less, could be because of automation?

• 1:03:23Speaker 05

  Well, clearly, AI is, is definitely going to continue to have a big impact. We all know all the big headlines, right? So we, we know that we're going to see AI replace a lot of jobs.

• 1:03:36Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 1:03:36Speaker 05

  And, you know, obviously, there's going to be, there's going to be some individuals that are going to be impacted by that, unfortunately, right?

• 1:03:44Speaker 07

  So would a simple rate cut fix the job opening problem, I guess is what I'm asking?

• 1:03:47Speaker 05

  What, what it does is this. It can improve economic conditions. The reason it does that is because if you bring interest rates up, people slow down their, their buying because the people buy with monthly payment. And less month, you know, a higher monthly payment, I'm going to buy less of it. Lower monthly payment, I'll buy more of it. If you stimulate the economy to a greater degree, you may create more jobs, potentially to offset some of the losses from AI. So will it stop the AI losses directly? No, but will it offset by economic conditions improving and allowing jobs to be created? Yes.

• 1:04:19Speaker 02

  But what is your solution, though? Okay?

• 1:04:22Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 1:04:22Speaker 02

  So I'm curious, when you look at this chart yourself, that shows S and P is climbing, but jobs, job openings is decreasing. How do you process this?

• 1:04:31Speaker 07

  I think, I think we're in uncharted territory here. I think that, um, that like, I'm not a big fan of government intervention. I'm also not libertarian because I think there are some useful case for the government. I think this is something that is going to require a lot of thought and attention to avoid like a UBI situation being necessary. Because like, how do you get around this? Like, jobs are becoming more useless. There are a lot of jobs that are BS jobs that are going to be automated. Like, I think companies, rather than aggressively hiring, are going to be aggressively automating. So, like I said, I don't think there's like a clear, easy fix for that. But I think eventually we'll get to a place where new jobs are being created, but...

• 1:05:04Speaker 02

  The way I process what you're saying is UBI, right? You're suggesting that the government intervention, government's got to come in and get involved. He's suggesting a different way of doing it.

• 1:05:12Speaker 07

  No, I'm suggesting that like, it's a problem that a lot of thought and effort is going to be have to put into to avoid UBI.

• 1:05:17Speaker 02

  I fully agree with you, but what can you put into it to avoid UBI?

• 1:05:22Speaker 07

  No, yeah, that's a difficult question. And I don't even think that we're, I don't even think we have low inflation right now. Because if you look at the core spending of people, energy, housing, and food, those, all three of those are still going up. So I don't know if inflation is necessarily going to...

• 1:05:35Speaker 02

  I want to go to that. I want to go to that to talk about that as well. Because where's that story about beef, oh, you had it as separate, right? Is there a story you have, Rob, from supermarkets, sticker shock, beef and coffee prices? Brandon, go ahead, because I know you wanted to talk about that.

• 1:05:51Speaker 07

  Yeah, and after you do that, Rob, I send three charts of those three things. But yeah, so I think Trump is seeing this problem the wrong way. Because he's telling the ranchers to lower the price of beef. He thinks it's the ranchers that are overcharging. But I looked into what the ranchers themselves are saying. And a lot of them are saying that the problem is there's only four major meat providers that keep lowballing them when they buy the meat from them. Two of which, by the way, aren't even domestic, they're international meat providers. So it's like a consolidation thing. And, you know, this is, I think, a matter of national security. Like, the same way that energy or pharmaceuticals would be if we're talking about beef. And this is, like, you hear a lot of the stuff about, oh, stop eating meat, like, the WEF talks about that and whatnot.

• 1:06:31Speaker 07

  There's even weird things where environmentalists have advocated to have wolves released in areas where there's, like, ranchers. And they've been, and they kill the cows. So it seems like a weird thing, making conditions for ranchers more difficult.

• 1:06:46Speaker 02

  Did you say wolves being released?

• 1:06:47Speaker 07

  Like, in areas, like, the protected species being released.

• 1:06:49Speaker 02

  What areas?

• 1:06:50Speaker 07

  Colorado, I saw specifically.

• 1:06:52Speaker 02

  Rob, can you pull the story up about Colorado with wolves being released to...

• 1:06:57Speaker 07

  Not, like, they say... For like environmental reasons, but um.

• 1:07:01Speaker 02

  Who said that?

• 1:07:02Speaker 07

  The people who put the wolves in that area.

• 1:07:04Tom Ellsworth?

  But but whose whose cows are they attacking?

• 1:07:06Speaker 07

  Ranchers.

• 1:07:07Tom Ellsworth?

  Okay, well, why aren't the ranchers putting up fences or contacting the authorities that says that I've got basically feral wolves attacking my calves?

• 1:07:16Speaker 07

  I mean, they're trying, they're putting a lot of effort into stopping the wolves.

• 1:07:20Speaker 02

  So here we go. Colorado voters in November twenty twenty approved Proposition one fourteen, which directed a Colorado Parks and Wildlife Commission to develop a plan to introduce and manage gray wolves west of Continental Divide by December twenty twenty three. The agency completed a wolf restoration and management plan and sought a federal designation under the Endangered Species Act to classify and introduce wolves as non-essential experimental population, given more flexible management tools. Uh CPW released ten wolves captured Oregon into Grand and Summit Counties on western slopes. So. Okay, so this is a one-off story that you're talking about, right? For Colorado.

• 1:07:57Speaker 07

  Yeah, and um yeah, it's been talked about in other places too, but um there is a a problem with like the big four uh beef providers, like lowballing these ranchers. Like the ranchers have drastically gone out of business over the last forty years. Like, there's a lot of charts that show the amount of beef providers or ranchers. And it's like a terrible business to be in. So there there is a like a big problem with like the uh I guess profitability or surviv- survivability with the people who provide.

• 1:08:20Speaker 02

  I remember this. I had a guy on the podcast four year, four, five years ago. His name was Chad. And he was a rancher talking about how difficult things were for him. And and and most of these guys, it's it's business that's been passed on generation to generation to their families. But let me, let me transition to a different story with this one here. I'm gonna go to the story. Michael Burry. Michael Burry, who we know at the end of the movie Big Short, he says water is what I'm gonna be going into. Right? I don't know, Rob, if you have the clip at the end of Big Short, if you type in Big Short, end of Big Short movie water on Twitter, it should come up. However, all of a sudden, quietly, he comes out and he announces something and he pisses off Palantir.

• 1:09:05Speaker 02

  How dare you, Michael Burry, say such a thing? Burry reveals Nvidia and Palantir puts after bubble warning. What? You mean to tell me Nvidia, a $5 trillion company, is not going to be a $10 trillion company in the next couple of weeks, Michael? Michael says no. Alright, so let's read this. Michael Burry's Cion Asset Management disclosed bearish wagers on Nvidia and Palantir technologies just days after hedge fund manager posted a cryptic warning to retail investors about market exuberance. Rob, I think you have this up there.

• 1:09:39Tom Ellsworth?

  So I have two clips that Brandon sent from Alex Karp.

• 1:09:43Speaker 02

  Can you start off with the first one of showing what he shorted? Why don't you show what Michael Burry put up that he's shorting? You know which one I'm talking about, Brandon?

• 1:09:52Speaker 07

  Yeah, it's the second one where he's talking about the shorting, right? Um, yeah, both of them, he's complaining about the shorting, yeah. You could, it doesn't matter which one.

• 1:10:00Speaker 02

  No, what I'm trying to say is there is actually a tweet from Michael Burry, which prompted all of this. We have to start there first.

• 1:10:08Speaker 07

  Oh, the charts that he posted?

• 1:10:09Speaker 02

  Yeah, he puts it up there saying this is what he's going to be doing. And it's freaked a lot of people out. Okay, he puts a chart showing the fact that they're going to be doing, I don't know if you found it or not, Rob.

• 1:10:20Speaker 07

  The charts that he posted showed that he's basically thinks that the cloud storage and all, there you go.

• 1:10:26Speaker 05

  And the reason why it's got, it's got a lot of play because he was on an island and he was proven correct when it came to the bubble in the mortgage environment. So that's why people are looking at this. Now, every CEO is going to get pissed off when you short them. So that's, that's a normal reaction.

• 1:10:43Speaker 02

  Very.

• 1:10:44Speaker 05

  So, but, but this is something that the reason why people are paying such close attention is because this guy's kind of gone quiet for a long time and now suddenly another, could this be, you know, could he be two for two?

• 1:10:55Speaker 02

  Yeah, so go ahead, Rob. Can you go to the second one? The, the, is this him breaking down what he foresees happening?

• 1:11:02Speaker 07

  He's comparing it to the tech bubble, saying that there's like a correlation with the charts and everything. And then he's show, shows the flywheel of the US. economy right now. How everything's like, you know, they're saying like 80% of GDP growth has been because of data center building.

• 1:11:17Speaker 02

  Okay, and then go to the Palantir guy.

• 1:11:21Speaker 02

  Alex, go ahead.

• 1:11:23Tom Ellsworth?

  Super triggering because these people, they could pick on any company in the world. They have to pick on the one that actually helps people that actually made money for the average person. They that is actually supporting our warfighters. Why do they have to go after us? And I'll tell you what, though, it's crazy motivating because I'll tell you why the short sellers are constantly getting screwed by Palantir. Because every time they short us, we just are like tripling down on getting the better numbers.

• 1:11:48Speaker 02

  Okay, go to the next one. Go ahead, Rob.

• 1:11:51Tom Ellsworth?

  He's actually putting a short on AI. So the way I read it was us and Nvidia and it's like.

• 1:11:55Speaker 04

  Yeah, the biggest position is you, though.

• 1:11:57Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, great. Okay. So and then, by the way, with the shorts is very complex. It's not even clear that I honestly, I think what is going on here is market manipulation. We delivered the best results everyone anyone's ever seen. It's not even clear he's not doing this to get out of his position. I mean, these people, they claim to be ethical. But, you know, like they're they're actually shorting one of the great businesses of the world. And I'm not against shorting as a matter of theory, but I'm just saying, pick something that is not doing a noble task and.

• 1:12:23Speaker 05

  Just not his company.

• 1:12:24Speaker 02

  Just not his company.

• 1:12:26Speaker 05

  Tom, where are you? Look at the chart. I mean, it's gone parabolic.

• 1:12:28Speaker 02

  It has. Yeah, there's no question about it.

• 1:12:32Tom Ellsworth?

  Let's not talk about the leadership of Palantir. And people give this guy a lot of credit for being a crazy genius. And let's not talk about the products of Palantir. Let's just talk about the stock market, which can be over enthusiastic at time. And Palantir at 207 was the stock price when the funds started is a PE of over 620. Yeah. It's like, wait a minute. That's like, that's like your grandfather says, hey, my blood pressure is 410. They say it's the greatest of all time. It's a grandpa, you're about to die. That's the wrong stat to to set a record on. And and it went down 10%, 20.7. And now it's hovering this morning, 182, 182.7.

• 1:13:16Tom Ellsworth?

  Oh, here it is. 184.5 is that live? Nice bounce. Okay. So that's a little bitty bounce, but that means it's down 10%, but now the PE, that means the PE should be 440, 430, can you scroll down, what's PE?

• 1:13:28Speaker 07

  Yeah, 430.

• 1:13:28Tom Ellsworth?

  430, there we go. So now the PE is down to a, a not completely unconscious alcohol poisoning.

• 1:13:37Speaker 02

  430 is not unconscious?

• 1:13:39Tom Ellsworth?

  No, hang on, hang on, hang on.

• 1:13:40Speaker 02

  That's pretty high.

• 1:13:40Tom Ellsworth?

  Hang on, 620. 620 is a blood alcohol of, of, you know, point four.

• 1:13:47Speaker 02

  Rob, do me a favor.

• 1:13:48Tom Ellsworth?

  Point one, you get arrested for drunk driving, point four, you're dead.

• 1:13:50Speaker 02

  Can you just go to?

• 1:13:51Tom Ellsworth?

  This is still point two five.

• 1:13:52Speaker 02

  What is Apple's PE ratio? Go look at what is Apple, do me a favor, go to ChatGPT and ask ChatGPT, what is, I'm gonna give you several companies, what is Apple?

• 1:14:03Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, we're looking those up.

• 1:14:04Speaker 02

  Microsoft?

• 1:14:05Tom Ellsworth?

  We're not far enough yet.

• 1:14:06Speaker 02

  Alphabet?

• 1:14:07Tom Ellsworth?

  It's still 400.

• 1:14:08Speaker 02

  Give me another, Walmart, okay, go to, give me another one outside of that one. Not Nvidia, do Nvidia?

• 1:14:14Speaker 07

  You can do it, you can do Nvidia.

• 1:14:15Speaker 02

  Do Palantir, which we just saw, who else you want to put on that list? Give me some reasonable companies.

• 1:14:20Speaker 07

  Microsoft.

• 1:14:21Speaker 02

  Why don't you put Ford?

• 1:14:22Tom Ellsworth?

  AMD, making chips.

• 1:14:23Speaker 02

  Put Tesla.

• 1:14:24Tom Ellsworth?

  Intel had a bounce.

• 1:14:25Speaker 07

  You know what I have that you love?

• 1:14:26Speaker 02

  Put, uh, uh, Intel and put Oracle, okay? Go with those and let's see what it shows. Go ahead.

• 1:14:32Speaker 07

  You know what I gendered?

• 1:14:32Speaker 02

  PE ratio, PE ratio, yeah.

• 1:14:34Speaker 07

  Uh, yesterday I asked ChatGPT, what have been the most ridiculous PE ratios of all time? I sent Rob that chart, so you'll like that.

• 1:14:41Speaker 02

  Who was at the top?

• 1:14:42Speaker 07

  So every, there's been some that have been in the thousands.

• 1:14:45Speaker 02

  I, I want to know who that is.

• 1:14:47Speaker 05

  And some can be infinite if they're actually have losses, so.

• 1:14:49Speaker 02

  Is it showing PE ratios? Let's see the PE ratio.

• 1:14:51Tom Ellsworth?

  It does. 30, that first one there, Apple, PE 30.2.

• 1:14:56Speaker 02

  Okay, we, by, by the way, by the way, by the way, by the way, let, let, let's do this. Apple market cap is showing what right there? 3 trillion. Let me put it to you this way. If Apple's PE ratio was the same as Nvidia, Apple today would be a $50 trillion company.

• 1:15:15Speaker 02

  That's what, not Nvidia, what do you call it, Palantir, okay? So, Apple is 30, P ratio, solid, keep going lower, Rob, if you could. Okay, next one is Microsoft, 36, 37, okay, keep going.

• 1:15:27Tom Ellsworth?

  And 3.8 trillion.

• 1:15:28Speaker 02

  Alphabet, 24, at $3 trillion, keep going lower. You got Walmart, wow, I don't see Walmart's P ratio, Rob, do you have it?

• 1:15:37Tom Ellsworth?

  It doesn't have it.

• 1:15:38Speaker 02

  Okay, we'll pull it up separately, keep going, so Nvidia's what? 212, keep going, Rob. Palantir, 207, which that's not it, Rob, because it's not showing it now.

• 1:15:49Tom Ellsworth?

  For some reason, it stops showing.

• 1:15:50Speaker 02

  Yeah, it stops showing.

• 1:15:51Speaker 05

  And by the way, I'll give you another one, Netflix is at 46.

• 1:15:53Speaker 02

  Netflix is at 46? What are we talking about here? And the guy is saying.

• 1:15:58Tom Ellsworth?

  At $182, he's still at 430.

• 1:16:02Speaker 02

  By the way, do you know what this means, though? If Nvidia's P ratio, what's Nvidia's P ratio, 45?

• 1:16:09Tom Ellsworth?

  No, that's Netflix.

• 1:16:10Speaker 02

  I think they're 60 right now.

• 1:16:11Speaker 05

  But there's big implications of this, Pat, because if indeed, you know, we've known the stock market is at expensive levels. But if indeed, there is a change where these prices start to come down to much more, let's call it normalized, levels of PE. We know that the drive up in the stock market, and you just showed the chart before, when you saw that rise in the S and P. Primarily driven by the Mag7. If the Mag7 comes down to more normalized PE, that can have very big implications on the overall stock market.

• 1:16:50Speaker 02

  True, true, when you're looking at this kind of stuff. So, so Michael Burry announces that, how much, Brandon, maybe let me ask you this. Do you agree with him that Palantir and Nvidia are about to have a market correction?

• 1:17:04Tom Ellsworth?

  Uh, no, I mean, I, I, um, I'm scared for Michael Burry, because I wonder if he's a little bit like the guy Jesse Livermore that I think a lot of shares know about. You ever hear of that guy, um, reminiscence of?

• 1:17:14Speaker 07

  Stock operator. So he this guy, he's famous for making like what people call the greatest stock market bet ever. He made a hundred million dollars during the Great Depression. He was like a famous short seller, but he he made a fortune and lost a fortune several times. So I wonder if Burry is almost chasing that high because I I asked Chachi PT yesterday, what's his record on trades? And like he's on kind of a losing streak. He did. He did the housing bubble well. He did the GME well, but he he got some stuff wrong the last couple of years. He got the the bond bet wrong. He got um.

• 1:17:44Speaker 02

  He did.

• 1:17:44Speaker 07

  The Tesla bet wrong. So I almost wonder if he's chasing the dragon with this. And so I sent Rob this chart that shows. So that's Burry's bets right there. So he's on kind of a losing streak, you know, he had a few wins out of the gate. But um, he hasn't had like a clear definitive win the last couple of years.

• 1:18:01Speaker 02

  Sure. What are the companies that had a thousand P ratio?

• 1:18:04Speaker 07

  Yeah, I sent you that one also, Rob. So just to show, this is an example of how companies who people see a lot of potential and could be debased from reality. So Amazon during the 90s had like a 500 to 3,000 ratio, P E ratio. And Tesla in 2020 had a 1,000 P E ratio. You got it, Rob?

• 1:18:25Tom Ellsworth?

  I don't. Nvidia right now this morning is 55.

• 1:18:29Speaker 02

  Say that again.

• 1:18:29Tom Ellsworth?

  Nvidia this morning right now is 55 P E ratio, 55.

• 1:18:33Speaker 02

  Okay, I buy that. I'll buy that.

• 1:18:34Tom Ellsworth?

  So sizzling versus 30 for Apple, but not insane.

• 1:18:38Speaker 07

  So look at this. So Apple or Amazon 500 to 3,000 in 1999, Google 100 to 200 in 2006.

• 1:18:47Speaker 02

  Netflix was 3 to 600. Tesla was 1,000 plus.

• 1:18:49Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 1:18:50Speaker 02

  What's Tesla today? What's Tesla's P ratio today?

• 1:18:52Speaker 07

  Like 200, I think.

• 1:18:53Speaker 02

  Is it still at 200?

• 1:18:54Speaker 07

  200, yeah. So I think that my read on this is when people see that a company has a potential to be a monster, they'll get way ahead of it like that. And I mean, Palantir, as much as I, you know, am fearful of what it does and dislike a lot of things about it, is a great, perfect product for right now. Like they're kind of like the Standard Oil of today where, you know, Standard Oil is the first company that started refining oil in a big way. And that's what Palantir does. They're the first company that's like really refining data in a big way. And, you know, people call data the new oil. So that's why I think people see so much potential in it.

• 1:19:25Speaker 05

  Well.

• 1:19:26Speaker 02

  People also see, oh, go ahead.

• 1:19:27Speaker 05

  No, I was going to talk about, look. If you look at things like the fear greed index, it's off the chart. It's and it's literally off the chart. Uh, the, the euphoria index that Citibank does. It is, if you go above point four one, it's called, you know, euphoria.

• 1:19:42Speaker 02

  Extreme fear?

• 1:19:43Speaker 05

  It's, it's, yes. If you, uh, yeah, but, but the, uh, this is a current one? Yep. Okay. Weird. Yeah, that's, that's really weird. If, how about Citibank's, um, um.

• 1:19:54Speaker 02

  That is extremely weird.

• 1:19:56Speaker 05

  Yeah, yeah, it is. What does greed look like? If it's fear. That was updated today at 10:20 a.m. Wow, we're in a weird place.

• 1:20:03Tom Ellsworth?

  But, but, but, but. All the markets pre-market reacted badly to the New York election.

• 1:20:07Speaker 02

  But check this, I, I agree. That's why, because a week ago was at 40. So 40 is fear and a month ago was neutral at 53.

• 1:20:14Speaker 05

  Yes.

• 1:20:14Speaker 02

  But, but we haven't been at greedy.

• 1:20:17Speaker 05

  I mean, the markets are all time highs every week. Yeah. How, how about if we look at the, uh, euphoria index from Citibank? If you could possibly pull that up. So, you know, there's an old saying that, uh, the market tends to inflict the most pain on the most people at the worst time. And you, you just, you just kind of worry at these levels. Are we at, uh, are we at a point where there is at least a correction of significance coming? I'm not saying there's a crash or bear, but are we at those levels? And are there things out there that just provide the excuse for it? Mm hmm.

• 1:20:49Tom Ellsworth?

  Can we look at two charts, Pat?

• 1:20:51Speaker 05

  Yeah, look at that, that you could see the euphoria index there. Point four one, you're in euphoria. Hmm. Um, you're, you're, you're well, well above that.

• 1:20:59Speaker 00

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• 1:22:01Speaker 05

  Yeah, and I wonder if like- Rob, I texted you- Are we past the point of the Fed even allowing a correction? Because like, I mean, what does a correction look like at this point with everything so built up? And I mean, I think a lot of it too has a lot to do with index funds, because the last 15 years, the vast majority of investing has been passive investing from like Blackrock and Vanguard index funds. So I think that has a lot of effect on it too. Absolutely, which is why it's so important because these leaders are so heavily weighted within these funds that they can have a, they can have a material influence if they come down. If, you know, there's, Alex Cartman used to say, "Look, the generals in the market, they drive the market. If you shoot the generals, the market really topples." Right. So I'm not saying that this is going to happen, but if you see that, the fact of your point, which is a really good point, so much is indexing, if the indices drop,

• 1:22:46Speaker 05

  it has a very wide-based effect. Yeah. As far as the Fed goes, just to tell you this, and people aren't looking at this, and I know that the point of the 70% chance of a cut, there will be, and Powell was very emphatic about this, but you kind of have to read between the lines, there will not be a Fed rate cut without the data, which means if the government doesn't open up in time for the data to be collected, the Fed will not make a cut based upon not having the data. You have to kind of read and watch his speech carefully, but there won't be a cut if we don't see the government opening the data that there.

• 1:23:21Tom Ellsworth?

  Very interesting. So people talk about the bubble, Pat. Look at this. This is Cisco. This is historical chart. Let's see, if the eagle-eyed observer can find the dot-com crash. Yeah. Um, at that point, in 1999, Cisco had 75% market share of routers. And in 2000, at the moment of crash, Cisco had 86% market share of routers. And everybody was learning what a router was. You needed a bunch of routers to plug in a bunch of things. So you could get websites to talk to each other. You needed lots and lots and lots of routers. Well, this was Cisco. Now, take a look at that. Now, take a look at their history before 1985, Pat. Look at it. We're making routers, making routers, making routers for about five years. Go like 91, 95, and then whammo.

• 1:24:07Tom Ellsworth?

  Now, let's go take a look at Nvidia.

• 1:24:11Tom Ellsworth?

  Oh, my God. Look at Nvidia. Now compare them back and forth. Just flip back and forth. So could we be, could we be due for the correction in AI? Because you look at the market share that Nvidia has on the engine of AI. Cisco had this on the engine of routers. I don't want a crash. I don't want the madness that comes with the crash. I don't want a sudden correction where average investors can't move their funds quick enough. I don't want that. But I'm looking at both of these, and it makes me wonder, especially when I see Palantir with those PEs, because we have to remember,

• 1:24:51Tom Ellsworth?

  the Tesla and the Amazon PE came with both CEOs telling us to ignore the PE. And even Elon Musk saying, well, it's a little bit ridiculous because, you know, I've even begun to sell the next model car, so I hardly have any profit. So they're, they're completely valuing me on the future of these cars. He was right. And so it was 1,000 PE by arithmetic, but it wasn't a bad stock price by value of the company, by market cap. Amazon was the same way. So I look at this, and I'm like, wow, you know, maybe Michael Burry is right. Now, he's been wrong about a lot of things, but you can't, there's, there's my two proxies. 89% market share of routers for Cisco.

• 1:25:31Tom Ellsworth?

  I don't know what Nvidia's market share is, but they are the overwhelming market share owner of the biggest, fastest, multi-threaded chips that are

• 1:25:42Speaker 02

  So you think there's gonna be a correction? You think there could be a correction with Nvidia?

• 1:25:45Tom Ellsworth?

  I think there's gonna be a correction. I don't think it's gonna be like 2000, 2001, which is referred to the quick recession or the nuclear winter. It went like that. And I lived through it. We actually raised around a fin- a fundraising for Jam that during that, miraculously enough, we actually got it done. But it was terrible. But it was a fast, terrible year. It wasn't like COVID where it was like year one, year two, year three, bounce out. It was a, you remember that year?

• 1:26:09Speaker 02

  Of course.

• 1:26:10Tom Ellsworth?

  It was a fast, terrible year, but it was really rough.

• 1:26:12Speaker 02

  You had that back in April where you had a correction. That was a 20%, you know, correction. You had a bear market and then you had that big bounce back. So these things can happen. It can correct and go back up. That's the thing about these PE ratios. The market will allow it if you have favorable overall conditions, if you have an accommodative Fed, and if it appears you could grow profits into those PE multiples. So to the extent that right now, maybe Nvidia and Palantir look like they can grow their way into these multiples, then the market's going to be pretty lenient on them unless there's an exogenous shock.

• 1:26:49Tom Ellsworth?

  Your fear is my fear. The government doesn't open. Numbers can't come out. They don't cut the rate and then they have to chase the rate in January. And that's bad.

• 1:26:57Speaker 02

  So let me go to the story. Trump officials torpedoed Nvidia's push to export AI chips to China. Rob, I think you got a clip on this one as well. Shortly before President Trump met with Xi in South Korea, an urgent issue emerged. Trump wanted to discuss a request by Nvidia's chief executive office CEO to allow sales of new generation of artificial intelligence chips to China. Current and former administration officials said green lighting, the export of Nvidia's Blackwell chips would be a seismic policy shift, potentially giving China, the US's biggest geopolitical competitor, a technological accelerant. Huang, the CEO who speaks to Trump often, has lobbied relentlessly to maintain access to the Chinese market.

• 1:27:41Speaker 02

  Go ahead, Rob, if you can play this.

• 1:27:43Speaker 03

  President Donald Trump on Sunday said he will allow Nvidia in Beijing to make deals on AI chips, but said he will not allow Nvidia's most advanced semiconductors to be sold to China. This announcement follows earlier indications from Trump that he was open to discussing export controls on Nvidia's leading Blackwell chips. In a 60 Minutes interview that aired on CBS on Sunday night, Trump was asked about China's interest in buying the world's most advanced semiconductors, especially Nvidia's flagship Blackwell AI chips. Interviewer Noro Donald asked Trump if he would allow Nvidia to sell their most advanced chips to China, and the president replied, quote, "No, we won't do that."

• 1:28:26Speaker 03

  However, Trump said he will let Beijing deal with Nvidia, noting that the American AI chipmaker is the, quote, "prime company in the world for that," end quote, and added, quote, "We will let them deal with Nvidia, but not in terms of the most advanced." After the two leaders met face to face in South Korea, Trump told reporters that there were no talks about Blackwells. President Trump said, quote, "We did discuss chips, and they are going to be talking to Nvidia and others about taking chips, and we make great chips." The president added that he will have a word with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, and said further discussions will be between China and Nvidia with the US-

• 1:29:07Speaker 02

  Brandon, what do you have with this? Does this concern you?

• 1:29:09Speaker 07

  No, I mean, I'm glad that he's saying that we can't-

• 1:29:11Speaker 02

  To the better chips.

• 1:29:12Speaker 07

  Yeah, they're not going to send the Blackwells, but I am concerned that they're still going to end up there, because I remember in Biden's administration, he also put a ban on sending Nvidia chips to China, but they still ended up there. So I don't know if that's on par of the company, because I know Jensen was advocating to send these chips to China, but I don't know. I think that it's common sense to the highest magnitude to not send them to China. Like, all the most advanced and important things of the future economy are going to be done with these chips. So, and I hear people on TV saying, "Oh, yeah, we should probably send them there so they aren't forced to go out on their own and make their own in like a hostile way." But no, I completely disagree with the notion or the argument of sending the most advanced chips to China for sure.

• 1:29:50Tom Ellsworth?

  Tom? Well, there's two ways to look at it, right? The H20 chip is the slightly lesser chip that they're allowed to send to China. Now, what does that mean? That means China builds its own data centers with the chips inside China. Now you take a look at deals that have been struck, like what OpenAI struck the deal with Amazon, because they wanted access to Amazon's- data center through the cloud so that they could take advantage of 200,000 black wells running or H20 black wells running on Amazon's data center. So how China gets access to it is two ways. One, they build their own data center and they want the good chips to build it.

• 1:30:31Tom Ellsworth?

  The second is they're using proxy locations to do their intelligence resource. And if you don't think they're using proxy locations in other parts of the country, of the world, to get to the cloud to do some of the work, then you're not paying attention. So it's got to be bigger than just the chip shipping to China. And one of the things that was pointed out, they said, "Exports of blackwell chips to China are worth tens of billions of dollars into Nvidia and could keep Chinese companies hooked on Nvidia's technology. Nvidia a buy." That's an analyst saying, "Wow, wouldn't it be great if Nvidia's hot chips could be in China? Because now China has to depend on Nvidia and they'll keep buying them from Nvidia and so Nvidia's still a stock buy."

• 1:31:16Tom Ellsworth?

  Whoa, so that's what you see that?

• 1:31:18Speaker 02

  Greed is just the logic instead of long-term thinking.

• 1:31:21Tom Ellsworth?

  That's exactly, that's greed on that where the strategic part of it is, wait, we got to keep China

• 1:31:26Speaker 02

  America first.

• 1:31:27Tom Ellsworth?

  And anybody from operating the big data centers from giving access to China by proxy to the processing power.

• 1:31:35Speaker 02

  But let me ask you a question. If you play China real quick. If I'm China right now, and how bad do you think the president and his administration would like to get the victory done? Pre 4th of July, pre Q2 of next year, pre, you know, celebrating the 250 year anniversary?

• 1:31:51Tom Ellsworth?

  A ton of optics.

• 1:31:52Speaker 02

  So then if I'm China and I'm on their side, guess what I'm doing?

• 1:31:58Speaker 02

  What do you think I'm doing? Delay, delay, delay, delay, delay, delay, delay. And in the last week, I say,

• 1:32:04Tom Ellsworth?

  We make a deal for lithium.

• 1:32:05Speaker 02

  If you give me those chips, the better chips of Nvidia, I will agree to this, but I need those better chips from Nvidia. And then what do you do?

• 1:32:15Tom Ellsworth?

  No way.

• 1:32:16Speaker 02

  Huh?

• 1:32:16Tom Ellsworth?

  No way.

• 1:32:17Speaker 02

  But, but, but.

• 1:32:18Tom Ellsworth?

  But if you cut the deal and say, well, they're gonna get them anyway somehow.

• 1:32:21Speaker 02

  You have a choice.

• 1:32:22Speaker 05

  The other thing you have to think of is how long are they the better chips before, you know, technology is very difficult to slow down. They might be the better chips right now, but there's gonna be something better that eventually happens.

• 1:32:30Speaker 02

  But who is gonna be making the better chips then? It's probably still gonna be Nvidia. It's not like it's gonna be that changing that dramatically, no matter what the new chips are gonna be.

• 1:32:37Tom Ellsworth?

  AMD is behind, Intel is limping, getting loan guarantees from the federal government.

• 1:32:42Speaker 02

  Or, or even teaming up together, like they're investing into each other right now to create like a flywheel of three competitors giving each other money, saying, listen, one of us is gonna get this right, and if you do, I'm gonna rely on the 50 billion I've given you.

• 1:32:55Speaker 07

  Yeah, no, we have, we have a huge head start and we have to maintain that and, and keep the gap growing instead of shrinking. Like the gap started shrinking for a bit of time. There's that chart that shows China versus America's AI development and they, they started closing the gap a little bit, but stuff like this will keep us, like this is a nuclear arms race, you know, like I, I don't know why people don't see it that way. It's, it's literally the nuclear weapons of the day. So that chart right there, see China starts narrowing the gap, but that's a little bit of an old chart, so.

• 1:33:18Speaker 02

  So do you do it? This is what I'm trying to ask you guys. You're the deal maker, okay? You're noticing their delay. They want the chips, okay? They want the better chips from those guys. Do you, you're US, that deal is not done. Do you go into 4th of July without a China deal done if they're asking for those chips?

• 1:33:37Speaker 07

  China tariff deal?

• 1:33:38Speaker 02

  Yes, the tariff deal is not done. Do you go or do you give the chips and tell Huang to say, you know what, you can sell some of those chips in it for the next two or three years? What do you do?

• 1:33:49Tom Ellsworth?

  No, I don't let it, I, I, if the deal doesn't get done, it doesn't get done, but I don't let them do it. Because, look, we are the top dog on technology. This also relates to defense. You know, why does Ukraine, why does Ukraine have, have a Jones for Tomahawk missiles? Because they can fly all the way to areas around Moscow, to power plants and Russian targets deep, and they're accurate, very accurate missiles. That's why they want them. Why did Israel want a lot of our more advanced nuclear stuff? Why did they want support with that? Why did they want the more advanced aircrafts? This happens in the defense world, Pat, and people need to understand that this chip is a Tomahawk missile in the war on AI.

• 1:34:34Speaker 05

  There's probably, Pat, there's probably other areas that China really needs us for. Their economy is not in the greatest shape right now. So there are things that the tariff does inflict pain on them for. So we may have leverage in other areas so we don't have to, even if they delay, concede on the chips, we may be able to use other levers to pull, to put a deal together. And I agree with you. Optically, it would be really important to get that done sooner than later.

• 1:35:01Tom Ellsworth?

  I agree with that. But what price?

• 1:35:05Speaker 02

  Yes, for sure. No question about it. There's this event that's coming up this week with the America Business Forum that started today. Witkoff's gonna be there. I was with Witkoff, we were with Witkoff last night in Miami. Mayor Suarez, you know, this event. Lot of interesting people are coming at this event. And I'll be, we'll be there on Thursday. But you got Messi, you got Jamie Dimon, you got Mario Corino Machado, a bunch of different guys. And topic of discussion, I think, at this event, Tom, what are the odds that they're gonna be talking about New York City mayoral race? What happened there?

• 1:35:40Tom Ellsworth?

  A thousand percent. It's gonna be on, I think Bret Baer is one of the moderators. How can this not be? Hey, what is the change and what is New York City leadership gonna mean for this? And just fill in the blank, everybody could be asked that question.

• 1:35:54Speaker 02

  Yeah. Anyways, I'm asking that because this is all leading to the big 2026 Fourth of July World Cup. America's gotta be like top shape when the World Cup comes. Because we have to have every, because President Trump knows optics better than anybody else we've had in the White House. I don't think anybody's understood optics better than him. That deal with China's gotta get done for us to be able to, you know, sell that victory in the World Cup on the big stage. We'll see, we'll see what's gonna happen. I do think this is gonna be a deal that both parties will use the leverage. I wonder who is more patient. Typically, China's more patient in these types of situations, but we'll find out. Next way I want to get into is

• 1:36:41Speaker 02

  Uh, which one should I go to here? Are Trump's tariffs making money? Check this out, folks. When you look at this chart, okay? Are Trump's terrorists making money? Besant gave a number of what he thinks is gonna be making, okay? Besant says it could make us a trillion dollars. It could make us a lot of money. Rob, how much money have we made so far? Do you have the number on how much money we made so far?

• 1:37:05Tom Ellsworth?

  Uh, it says 142.2 billion more than this time last year. 2 point, uh, it doesn't say a total.

• 1:37:13Speaker 02

  142 billion more than it made last year and a growth of 174%. But is it enough to replace the income tax as a main source of funding for the federal government? As Trump administration officials argued. Treasury Department data shows that'd be a massive stretch. Tariff revenue has grown for months and the latest showing that the US has collected $223 billion. It's pretty wild. As of October 31st, 142 billion more than last year. But it's still short of the $2.4 trillion federal income tax brought in last year. You can tell when you're reading this article, it's kinda like, yes, it did bring 142 billion dollars more,

• 1:37:57Speaker 02

  but there's no way you can get 2.4 trillion dollars. Tom, your thoughts on the story?

• 1:38:01Tom Ellsworth?

  Oh, yeah, like you're comparing it to one full year of income tax. It's like, we're really, really proud that, you know, Brooklyn Bette David has reached three foot tall. But that's still far short of Shaquille O'Neal's 7'2". It's like, what the hell? Really? He just got started. This is, this comparison, oh, it's far short of. Look, I think you look at what it's brought in. Number one, it brought in more, 142 billion dollars more. Number two, number two is that it is not showing up as 5, 6, 7, 10% inflation with the inflation algebra that's tortured numbers anyway, which isn't really what it's supposed to be.

• 1:38:47Tom Ellsworth?

  And so I look at it and I'm like, this is a success, but they will take any opportunity. And this is Politico, fun with charts with people that don't normally play with spreadsheets. And it's very aggravating to me because this is good. This is good because inflation didn't happen, yet world concessions to equalize the trade that we have have happened. So why can't we look at that and say, wow, we're just getting warmed up? Can we do more?

• 1:39:16Speaker 05

  Yeah, but what people don't look at is that that's 142 billion. That is less treasuries that have to be issued. So the fact that you're issuing less treasuries means that you can actually, you don't have to incent people to buy them with a higher interest rate. It actually helps interest rates improve. So while you could look at just the negatives, right? I'm with you 100%. People just look at the negatives, right? The negatives say, okay, well, you know, a third of it's being paid by the country that the goods are coming from. Great. But the consumers here are bearing some of the burden, as are some of the distributors and channels here. So it's spread out. However, if we didn't have that, we'd probably be looking at higher interest rates than we would have currently.

• 1:40:00Tom Ellsworth?

  And when you say treasuries, that's us printing treasury bills that we sell around the world to get cash to pay our own bills. And it's people such as who and who that are buying those? Who's number one?

• 1:40:10Speaker 05

  Well, you're seeing right now, we're probably, we're probably buying more of them domestically.

• 1:40:16Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah.

• 1:40:17Speaker 05

  Because we don't.

• 1:40:18Tom Ellsworth?

  But number one international buyer typically last three years is Japan.

• 1:40:20Speaker 05

  Japan, number one. But they have really slowed down to almost neutral now as far as what's rolling off.

• 1:40:26Speaker 02

  I want you to see this chart, Rob. Can you pull up this chart here? Watch this, the spike. No one, you don't need to understand tariffs or numbers to not understand this chart. This chart tells you what's happened, not this one, Rob. The tariff revenue, that one right there, you got it. Look at that. That's 2022. Monthly, we're averaging around $10 billion of revenue coming in for the last few years, three years. 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 8, 8, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9, 8, 8, 8, boom, 20. Boom, 25, 27, 29, 30, 30, 30. October's gonna end up being 34, 32 to 34 billion in a single month. That's nearly 4X-ing some months combined.

• 1:41:11Speaker 02

  Okay, you take four months combined, we did that in one month. So, you know, the sustainability of that, and then now, there are some companies, and Tom, I'm gonna come to you with this one as well. Businesses press Supreme Court to strike down Donald Trump's emergency tariff power. Rob, I think you do have a clip on this one from Financial Times. Businesses, lawmakers, and former US officials are pressing US Supreme Court to rule against Donald Trump's use of emergency tariffs powers. Ahead of the showpiece hearing this week, about 40 legal briefs have been filed by groups ranging from US Chamber of Commerce to former national security officials in opposition to the signature policy of US president has relied on to wage his trade wars. Go ahead, Rob.

• 1:41:53Speaker 02

  This is Trump from 60 Minutes explaining the importance of tariffs. Oh, okay, go for it.

• 1:41:58Speaker 01

  ...the economy. The signature part of your economic plan is tariffs. The Supreme Court is gonna hear arguments this week on whether you have the authority to impose these sweeping tariffs without congressional approval. The lower courts have ruled against you. That's why it's at the Supreme Court right now.

• 1:42:15Speaker 07

  Very close rulings, yeah.

• 1:42:16Speaker 01

  What happens to your economic plan if the Supreme Court invalidates your tariffs?

• 1:42:22Speaker 07

  I think our country will be immeasurably hurt. I think our economy will go to hell. Look, because of tariffs, we have the highest stock market we've ever had. Because of tariffs, 401Ks at the highest level, and this is millions and millions of people that we've ever had, 401Ks. I think it's the most important subject discussed by the Supreme Court in 100 years.

• 1:42:46Speaker 02

  Okay, so, Tom, thoughts?

• 1:42:48Tom Ellsworth?

  Businesses press Supreme Court. I'd like to see some CEOs talking. Right now, we've got the US Chamber of Commerce, reputable group, and you've got former national security officials in opposition. Go take a look at what happens when people that work in defense or national security go back to the private sector. They end up on the boards of international multinational companies, often lobbying against us to help those companies profit wildly with trade deals that are tilted the other way. I mean, let's be real about it. The, you know, because those, through the miracle of, you know, cross-listing, sometimes those companies also are traded on our stock market. It's amazing to me to see this.

• 1:43:31Tom Ellsworth?

  I want to know if someone's willing to put their head up above the water and say, "Me, this company, me." No one's doing that. These are groups of people, and the Financial Times says "businesses" without naming a single CEO.

• 1:43:46Speaker 05

  There's three businesses, they're not large businesses either. That's what it is. So they say it, but it's three. And what's being challenged is, does the president have the authority under this AIPA, this emergency protection, under the fact that the president would have authority if it's national security? So when he first did it, it was because of fentanyl, which you could argue is national security. But now, what they also have is the point that you made, the CHIPS with China. So that is also something that he's using tariffs to protect us from having to, you know, give this technology to China by using leverage over Nvidia. So these are potentially arguments that should win with national security.

• 1:44:27Speaker 05

  I believe that he has appointed three members of the Supreme Court, and I believe that the Supreme Court does, what is the number of the Supreme Court that is Republican?

• 1:44:38Tom Ellsworth?

  Six-three.

• 1:44:39Speaker 05

  Six-three, right? Six-three, yes.

• 1:44:41Tom Ellsworth?

  And Gorsuch, Comey, and Comey Barrett, and...

• 1:44:46Tom Ellsworth?

  And then you also always can rely on Clarence. So yeah, it's 6-3 right now.

• 1:44:52Speaker 05

  So I think there's a reasonable chance that this is upheld, that the tariffs are. It would be awful to think about if we had to unwind him. And then how much egg do we have on our face as a nation?

• 1:45:00Speaker 04

  Yeah, and all this leverage goes away too. I mean, there was a point, Rob, I sent you a chart. There's a point in time where tariffs for 90% of the national revenue, I love this chart here. And Pat, you made a great video that has like over a million views about how we could replace the entire national income or the federal budget with a combination of tariffs and claiming money that other countries owe us. So I mean, look at this. Like this shows everything with, look at what the big dips go down when we have wars, you know? The first one, Civil War, then World War I, then World War II, that's when percentage of tariffs as national revenue goes way down. And today, like since the 50s, it's went to like less than 1%.

• 1:45:38Speaker 04

  But, you know, it could get up to a trillion dollars. We're only at like 7% right now for an average of tariffs across the board. So like with the combination of deals and rates, we could get to a trillion dollars. It's funny, they're trying to take like a jab at this as if we're like not in a successful place with 300 billion. Like, you know, we sent 300 billion to Ukraine, so it's a whole Ukraine payment.

• 1:45:59Speaker 05

  But what would happen, think about it, if it is struck down, then the chart that you showed with all that revenue, we'd have to give that back. How do you even unwind that?

• 1:46:08Speaker 04

  Well, can the executive order that saying it is a matter of national security if they strike it down?

• 1:46:12Tom Ellsworth?

  No, it's not as serious as I'm saying. Where does the money come from? You'd have to issue treasuries.

• 1:46:16Speaker 04

  Oh, for the tariff.

• 1:46:18Speaker 05

  Yes.

• 1:46:18Tom Ellsworth?

  Right.

• 1:46:19Speaker 04

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 1:46:20Tom Ellsworth?

  The money got spent.

• 1:46:21Speaker 04

  Right. No, I don't think they'll do that. I don't think they would tie his hands behind his back like that. Because that's what they would do. Like that's the leveraging for everything.

• 1:46:29Speaker 02

  It would be terrible. You know what that's like? That's like calling you and telling you, hey, we want you to be the CEO of Apple. But you can't make any changes to the comp. You can't make any changes to culture. You can't make any changes to anything. But we just want you to be a figurehead. Can I do anything? The board keeps shutting you down. No, no, no, no. Well, the stock, you know, shareholders voted me in, but no, no, no. Thank God it's 6-3 right now, because if it was the other way around, imagine you get to become president. What we did learn. During Biden's administration is that the single greatest thing that happened the last 60

• 1:47:13Speaker 02

  years in politics is President Trump flipping three seats. That's what we learned. Look at that. Look at Neil, Brett and Amy. All of them have what name next to it? Trump, Trump, Trump. 17, 18, 20. I don't think it's ever happened when you flip three seats.

• 1:47:30Speaker 05

  In four years too.

• 1:47:31Speaker 02

  In four years. And Obama flipped one in eight.

• 1:47:34Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:47:34Speaker 02

  Think about that. Rob, can you verify how many times Obama flipped? I think Obama flipped two in eight, if I'm not mistaken. One in first, one in second. I don't know what the number was on one of them, but I don't know what, it could be one in eight. The single greatest thing happened, people don't realize if that number, those three don't flip, when Colorado decided to remove, it was two of them, right, Rob? Yep. Yeah. When Colorado decided to remove President Trump on the ballot, if it was 6-3, even 5-4, this is a very different America we're living in today. Very, very different America we're living in today. By the way, polymarket just came up. So going back to real estate with Mamdani. Here's Mamdani's polymarket. They just literally tweeted this

• 1:48:17Speaker 02

  an hour and a half ago of what, Rob, I don't know if you saw this one with Humberto that he sent it in, you know which one I'm saying? Polymarket came up with saying the fact that Mamdani's ratio of what he's gonna be doing with rent freeze, okay? His rent freeze, the bet if you want to make it, is 65% likely, there you go. 60, okay, change, 63% chance he delivers on his promise of rent freeze. Okay? Will Mamdani freeze New York City rent before 2027? 63 says yes. He's gonna pull that off. What do you think? How terrible

• 1:49:00Speaker 02

  of an idea is this? How great of an idea is this, Perry?

• 1:49:04Speaker 05

  Well, just go to where you have current rent freezes. It usually doesn't provide the best conditions. Landlords don't have incentives. Real estate values are harmed. You don't have people that want to purchase those because you typically, you can't make money on those properties. You have to give incentives for investment and you have to give incentives for good conditions.

• 1:49:26Speaker 02

  And why is this a bad thing?

• 1:49:29Speaker 05

  I think rent freezes.

• 1:49:31Speaker 02

  Who's turned off by this? Who does this hurt?

• 1:49:35Speaker 02

  Isn't this a noble thing? Developers. Isn't this, isn't this helping out people that don't want their rents to increase? I- i- isn't it fair for them to not have their rents being increased? Because he's saying it's a great idea and people voted for this.

• 1:49:48Speaker 05

  So who's going to provide the housing for that?

• 1:49:50Tom Ellsworth?

  Correct.

• 1:49:50Speaker 05

  You know, that, I mean, who, who's going to provide that type of housing? And what quality of housing would it be? It, it's got to, you've got to figure out the mon- the finances on that one way or another.

• 1:49:59Speaker 02

  Think about how bad just rent controls are. Like some of the most expensive areas in the world to live in are places that have rent controls, which is in New York and California already. But it's the same thing that you said, but just to a smaller magnitude of not wanting to build or not having an incentive to own. But it's that times 10. Tom, thoughts?

• 1:50:14Tom Ellsworth?

  Um, the single family homeowner stops putting small homes as inventory out to rent.

• 1:50:25Tom Ellsworth?

  Large corporations and guys that own a lot of, um, multi-dwelling units, MDUs, apartment buildings, they're still out there, but now their, their level of improvement, the level of investment in the property is lower, so the condition is lower. Um, you know, heating, air conditioning systems, they choose to stretch them out and don't replace them as soon. But the single family homeowner that retires often looks at it and says, you know, if I can't do this, why take the risk on it? I'm not going to put that, I'm not going to put that on the market. So that inventory never comes on the market. Um, and they, sometimes they just decide, okay, we're going to sell it.

• 1:51:06Tom Ellsworth?

  And so what could have been a collection of other rentable units for the renting population is not there. So the quality goes down, but also the supply goes down. Milton Friedman is right.

• 1:51:18Speaker 02

  He also said he wants to build 200,000 units somehow. So I don't know who's going to be doing all that building.

• 1:51:22Speaker 05

  If you can't, if you can't make money on them.

• 1:51:25Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:51:25Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, satellite photos tend to show that, um, you know, um, the land area in New York is pretty built out and there's water in the way. So unless you're gonna drain the East River and get a bunch of rocks from New Jersey and, uh, you know, find a way to make more land. I mean, well, great, great. Maybe he could talk to the Saudis. They, they built this offshore area that looked like palm trees and put very expensive apartment buildings on it. Maybe he could do something like that. But where? I want to know where? Where's he gonna build these 200,000? Is he gonna, is this gonna be eminent domain? Is he gonna claim warehousing areas that are, you know, what's he gonna do?

• 1:52:04Speaker 02

  By, by the way, let's go to, he may do it in the middle of Central Park. What's more important?

• 1:52:10Tom Ellsworth?

  No, but eminent domain, you know, eminent domain is is the right of a city to buy your house from you to make the off-ramp for the freeway. They can do that. By the way, that happened in San Fernando Valley for the 101. There were homes that were right next to the 101, homes that were at the end of streets. It was eminent domain. You were paid market rate. Is he gonna take and seize commercial property or other things to make, to have land space for stuff? That is the socialist tool, my friends.

• 1:52:35Speaker 05

  Don't rule it out.

• 1:52:37Tom Ellsworth?

  Remember eminent domain is your city's ability to steal from you and then just pay you, allegedly pay you market rate, but basically evict you.

• 1:52:46Speaker 02

  You think he's capable of doing that?

• 1:52:47Tom Ellsworth?

  Do I think he's capable of doing that? It's happened in America in the name of freeways, in the name of highways.

• 1:52:53Speaker 02

  Do you think he's capable of doing that?

• 1:52:54Tom Ellsworth?

  Do I think he, I think he's capable of that and more.

• 1:52:56Speaker 05

  Just think of the heart of where it's changed and the brilliant job they've done in marketing because it used to be that that was the victim. The victim was the big bad government took it away from you. But now somehow they've flipped the script to say, you're no longer the victim. You're the bad guy because you have something that you own and the government by taking it away is the good guy.

• 1:53:18Tom Ellsworth?

  Right.

• 1:53:19Speaker 02

  Yeah, I want to go to the next story. Let me tell you another guy that's claiming to be a good guy. Um, Patrick, you know who Patrick Bateman is? Do you guys know the name Patrick Bateman, Rob?

• 1:53:29Speaker 05

  The actor?

• 1:53:30Speaker 02

  Who's Patrick Bateman?

• 1:53:31Speaker 05

  From Psycho?

• 1:53:32Speaker 02

  From Psycho, exactly. Good memory, Rob. So, can you play this clip? Interviewer is asking Newsom. Rob, do you have this or no?

• 1:53:43Speaker 05

  Yes, was it in your notes?

• 1:53:44Speaker 02

  It was in my notes. Yes, interviewer's asking Newsom that your friends are even comparing you. Watch this one. You're zooming a little bit, Rob? Go ahead.

• 1:53:53Speaker 05

  Patrick Bateman talk.

• 1:53:54Speaker 02

  I don't know, but...

• 1:53:55Speaker 05

  I mean, people say that you are like American Psycho, yeah.

• 1:54:00Speaker 02

  Like I said, new scum, I mean, look.

• 1:54:02Speaker 05

  But even your friends like say this.

• 1:54:04Speaker 02

  Oh, do they?

• 1:54:04Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:54:05Speaker 02

  Well, I'm gonna reevaluate my guest list.

• 1:54:08Speaker 05

  I mean, there was a comedian that said a literal comic book villain from Central Casting, Patrick Bateman vibes. He definitely had someone killed or may have killed someone himself.

• 1:54:18Speaker 02

  Watch his hand gesture. I'm glad I still have some humor left. I mean, this is a rough business.

• 1:54:24Speaker 05

  Yeah, it is.

• 1:54:24Speaker 02

  This is a rough, particularly if you're willing to fight. There's Vinnie. I'm just a happy camper. Rocking and a-rolling.

• 1:54:33Speaker 05

  You make up all the Patrick Bateman talk.

• 1:54:37Speaker 02

  So, California.

• 1:54:39Tom Ellsworth?

  That was nervous laughter.

• 1:54:40Speaker 02

  Yes. California voters allowed Democrats to redraw congressional map. Rob, is this it?

• 1:54:46Speaker 05

  Yes, this is Fox News coverage.

• 1:54:48Speaker 02

  Guys, it's officially four on 52, I believe. Four on 50, I think. Go ahead, Rob.

• 1:54:55Speaker 07

  The yes vote in particular was Prop 50. The reason voters said they voted yes on Prop 50, 82% of the case, eight out of 10 voters, say it was to counter the GOP changes, not because they saw it was the best way to draw those district lines. Now, if you go back and look at those who said no to the vote, they said their reasoning to do so is that they saw this as not the best way to draw those district lines, while only 34% said it was to stop the Democrats from adding seats in Congress. A couple other things we're taking away from what voters said there in California. We asked the voters and how they would actually like to see these lines drawn.

• 1:55:38Speaker 07

  The irony of this trace is that nine out of 10 voters, even more so, said they'd see...

• 1:55:44Speaker 04

  Like to see this done by a nonpartisan commission, not the party in power. Well, that was preempted with the outcome of this vote.

• 1:55:53Tom Ellsworth?

  Wow. This is crazy. Rob, do you have the chart?

• 1:55:55Speaker 02

  There is a chart on this. Yes, you have to show this on how they did it and what corner they went to. Okay, because once, once this was done, the, you know, let me, let me read this and then while Tom is finding this, once this was done, California is done, done when it comes down to ever becoming Republican, especially on the House side. But let me read this to you. California voters have easily approved a ballot measure to redraw the state's congressional map to favor Democrats, according to a race called by AP, marking the party's biggest victory to date in the national battle of redistricting ahead of 2026 midterms.

• 1:56:35Speaker 02

  The measure called Prop 50 will replace lines drawn by an independent commission with a map that could net Democrats as many as five new seats next year's House elections. Look at this number here. Look at that. That's what happened in California. Holy.

• 1:56:49Tom Ellsworth?

  See what they did? They took Northern California and they took the liberal coast and they see those lines?

• 1:56:57Speaker 02

  Of course, yes.

• 1:56:59Tom Ellsworth?

  They took, so the coastal weight, they obliterated all the northern farmers and they obliterated the area around Sacramento. And then down in San Diego, they basically made sure that the, the gains that were made by the Republicans down in San Diego, boom, they do it. And then you look at the rate change that was in Orange County. Look at that. There you go.

• 1:57:22Speaker 02

  Wow.

• 1:57:22Tom Ellsworth?

  F you.

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• 1:58:25Speaker 07

  They need somebody who's a Republican to run as a Democrat and kind of fake everybody out like a Trojan horse. I think that's the only way to do it.

• 1:58:34Speaker 02

  The only way to do it?

• 1:58:35Speaker 07

  Yeah, for like a fake Democrat.

• 1:58:37Speaker 02

  So you come in, then what do you do?

• 1:58:39Speaker 07

  You start doing Republican things.

• 1:58:40Speaker 02

  No, I get that, but what I'm saying, how are you gonna pass them? You know your House, you know what it's gonna be. Do you know the numbers?

• 1:58:46Speaker 07

  Yeah, no, the House is like a super majority.

• 1:58:48Speaker 02

  So how are you gonna pass anything? Even if you act like a Democrat, you get in, but you're a Republican and you flip and say, "All right, I'm a Republican, I want to pass the following..."

• 1:58:56Tom Ellsworth?

  Find voting results by county.

• 1:58:57Speaker 02

  "I want to pass these following things." How are you gonna do it?

• 1:59:00Speaker 07

  Yeah, there's gonna be a limited amount of things you could do, but I think across the board to people who are upset with this, they could run for Congress, like the local Congress and Senate and do the same thing. Like, you have to run for anything as a Democrat, even if you are a Republican. So across the board, from Governor to House to Senate, within the state, to judges, like, it's the same thing.

• 1:59:18Speaker 02

  But you get...

• 1:59:19Speaker 07

  I do, I get what you're saying, yeah.

• 1:59:20Speaker 02

  What are you gonna... Okay, go ahead, act. Trust me, I have... Tom, do you want to just text them? Tom, just text them. You got your phone with them. Tell them what you want them to do. So, do you realize when you think about what's going on right now? Here's how I think they thought about it, okay? I think, Tom, they did the following. I think Republicans sat there. Do you think phone call was made for Greg Abbott to redistrict Texas? Do you think that was an accidental one day Greg Abbott woke up and said, "Let's redistrict Texas"? What do you think?

• 1:59:53Speaker 07

  No.

• 1:59:54Speaker 02

  You think there was a phone call made and was strategic?

• 1:59:56Speaker 07

  I think it was strategic, absolutely.

• 1:59:58Speaker 02

  I agree.

• 1:59:58Tom Ellsworth?

  Every state does it.

• 1:59:59Speaker 02

  Okay, so here's a question, though. Watch the most important question I believe I'd be asking if I'm behind closed doors. You ready? All right.

• 2:00:08Speaker 02

  Go five years ago. What is more likely to flip to the opposite side? Is it more likely for California to go from Democrat to Republican? Or is it more likely for Texas to go from Republican to Democrat?

• 2:00:22Speaker 05

  Texas takes a lot.

• 2:00:23Speaker 02

  Exactly.

• 2:00:24Tom Ellsworth?

  They had started in Austin.

• 2:00:25Speaker 02

  Exactly. So you know what you do? You're like, guys, if I lock in Texas. And then they force Cali- we were never gonna have California in first place anyways. So who cares? Do it. I think that's the way they looked at it. Let's lock in our biggest chip, which is what? Texas and let them have California. I think that's truly how it was thought about, Tom. Because if you understand what I'm saying, right?

• 2:00:51Speaker 05

  Yeah, because Texas was vulnerable.

• 2:00:53Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's not, well, you know, we were gonna do, they were gonna do it anyways. No, Texas was vulnerable. A lot of weird things was happening in Texas. So in a way, I'm willing to bet even people who live in Texas that were former California people. Listen, you know how many, Tom, how many people would we run into in Texas that were from California? How often would we run into people from?

• 2:01:12Tom Ellsworth?

  Completely regular thing.

• 2:01:14Speaker 02

  It was such a weird thing. Oh, yeah, we're from San Jose. Oh, yeah, we're from San Diego. Oh, yeah, we're from Northridge. Oh, yeah, we're from Pasadena. Seriously. Yeah, why'd you move here? Same reason you moved here. Totally get it.

• 2:01:24Tom Ellsworth?

  Guess where we saw most of them?

• 2:01:25Speaker 05

  Nevada is the other one that's.

• 2:01:27Speaker 02

  Nevada is the other one that's grown mass in Idaho.

• 2:01:29Tom Ellsworth?

  Remember where we saw most of them? At our schools, other parents.

• 2:01:32Speaker 02

  That's right.

• 2:01:32Tom Ellsworth?

  And they, oh, we brought our kids here. We're living here and we would meet them right at our schools.

• 2:01:36Speaker 02

  Yeah. So to me, I think this redistricting thing that they did, Rob, can you flip on how many of them? I think it's 48 to four, Rob. If you can find that one chart on what it looks like California on representative. California representative. Forty-eight to four. No, by tomorrow midterms, by next year's midterms. I believe, because the ratio is what I'm looking at. There you go. That's the one. That's the one. California currently has 50 to 40 represent, 43 of them are Democrats, nine of them are Republicans. By next year, which Prop 50 passed, it'd be 48 to four. By the way, do you know who had energy last night? Like, I haven't seen him have energy in a while.

• 2:02:20Speaker 02

  Who is, who is like, kinda like, alright, we're getting some momentum. Do you know who is kind of a?

• 2:02:27Speaker 05

  Newsom?

• 2:02:27Speaker 02

  Oh, let me tell you, let, let me tell you how he sounded. He sounded looser. He sounded looser. You know who that is? Obama. Look at this clip here from Obama. Rob, if you want to play this. He see, he's smelling. He's like, okay, maybe this is a chance for me to come back. Maybe this is a chance for. No, but you, you gotta realize, they had a good night last night.

• 2:02:49Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 2:02:50Speaker 02

  If you're a Democrat, it was a phenomenal night for you last night.

• 2:02:53Speaker 05

  But not necessarily totally unexpected either.

• 2:02:55Speaker 02

  No, it was not necessarily unexpected. You're right. It's not like, because everybody is saying, well, now, you know, it's gonna be a blue wave for midterms. We don't know yet. We don't know yet. The reality of it is, Crockett's gonna be kicked out in Texas.

• 2:03:08Speaker 05

  Right.

• 2:03:08Speaker 02

  And I believe, Tom, who is that guy's name? Is it from Fresno? Issa, Issa, uh?

• 2:03:13Speaker 05

  Daryl Issa?

• 2:03:14Speaker 02

  Daryl Issa, I think he's gonna be out, and he's a stat. So I think he's gonna be out. I think Crockett's gonna be out. I think their both next move is gonna be, maybe we go Senate? Maybe we go play different roles. So it's gonna be, go ahead and play this clip, Rob?

• 2:03:29Speaker 07

  A year ago, I remember talking to folks who would tell me, this, this election doesn't matter. They, who, who, who, if these are some well-educated, bright, you know, people, they, they say, whoever the next president, next president ends up being, it's not gonna affect me, that's what they would say.

• 2:03:52Speaker 07

  If nothing else, the last nine months should have cured us of that idea.

• 2:04:02Speaker 07

  Because the stakes are now clear. We don't need to speculate about the dangers to our democracy. They're here. We don't need to wonder.

• 2:04:17Speaker 02

  If harm's gonna be done to vulnerable people. You can pause it right here. So, but do you look at his eyes though? Look at his eyes though.

• 2:04:24Tom Ellsworth?

  Yep.

• 2:04:25Speaker 02

  Go back one second, Robin. Look at his eyes. No, play, play. I'll tell you exactly when to pause. Press play. Look at those eyes. Look at those eyes. You see those eyes? You've never seen Obama's eyes like that.

• 2:04:37Tom Ellsworth?

  They're kind of focused again.

• 2:04:38Speaker 02

  You're, they're focused, but I, I seek vengeance. Yeah, anger. I seek revenge and anger. I feel like he is been humiliated. Remember, the worst day of his life was November 4th of last year.

• 2:04:51Tom Ellsworth?

  Oh, my gosh.

• 2:04:52Speaker 02

  I'm not saying mom, losing family, all this stuff, but the worst day of his life.

• 2:04:56Tom Ellsworth?

  Political life.

• 2:04:57Speaker 02

  Political life was November 4th of last year. Worst day because it proved he didn't have a voice. He has gone back, recreated himself, trying to find a way to come back. I don't know how much of that weight he's gonna carry or not. I'm just saying. He probably had a good night last night. He had a little bit more to be able to say, I told you, you know what? I was right. I think he's kind of going through it right now, Tom.

• 2:05:16Tom Ellsworth?

  You know, it's really interesting, you know, you have, you have liberals and liberal headline writers. Democrats dent Trump's coalition with three big election victories. The Democrats had a very good night last night, a very good night. But I went and I looked at it and I said, well, how good? Let's look and say, how good? And what do we have to do in response? So I went and looked at, let's just take a look at the governors they all talked about. Hey, we got Democrat governors in New Jersey and Virginia. So I went in and I looked and I said, okay, uh, Mickey versus Jack in New Jersey and Jack, um, C. Attorelli. You know, he got a lot of support from Trump, a lot of support from MAGA and some money. So Mickey Sherrill beat him 57, 42. Okay, so how did Trump do during the election?

• 2:06:02Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, Trump only got 46 during the election and Kamala Harris got 52. So 52, 46. So it's about a, a four-point difference toward the Democrats. Do you see what I'm talking about, Pat? But guess what? In New Jersey, over the last 30 years, only Chris Christie was the Republican, um...

• 2:06:22Tom Ellsworth?

  Republican governor, only Chris Christie. And Phil Murphy's been since 2018, so coming up on nine years. So, okay, so you dented Trump's coalition. We've never had a Republican governor in New Jersey with the exception of Chris Christie over the last 32 years.

• 2:06:42Speaker 05

  Before that, Mary Todd Whitman, but you know that.

• 2:06:43Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, but now you're going back. How many presidents? Five of them, right? Christine Todd Whitman, 94 to 2000. Now you go back 40 years, almost 50. So, then it went to Virginia. I said, okay, how bad was this in Virginia? Virginia, listen to these numbers, they're almost the same. Spanberger defeated Winsome Sears, 57 to 43. Almost the same, like within a half a point. And during the election, it was 46 Kamala Harris and 52 Trump. Almost the same. So it's five points different, four and a half points actually, for Trump right now,

• 2:07:24Tom Ellsworth?

  which shows, and by the way, only Glenn Youngkin, who became governor and then term limited out, he's termed out right now, term limits. And he came there because Terry McAuliffe tried to come back and be governor again, and opened his mouth and said, "Parents shouldn't control their kids. We will control them from the schools." And he said that two weeks before the election. And then everybody goes, "Wait a minute, that's your plan?" And they voted, and Glenn Youngkin beat him by a whisker. He was the only Republican, and it took parents flipping out and a horrible gaffe by Terry McAuliffe to do it, because now you have to go all the way back to 2002 Mark Warner. Only a guy named Bob McDonnell for six years was a Republican governor.

• 2:08:09Tom Ellsworth?

  So these have always been, with a couple small exceptions, Democrat governor seats, going back 30 years. So, and the margin wasn't that far off from the presidential election. So what it tells me is this is still tight, but the Republicans did not put up a good candidate in Virginia, not at all. And the MAGA and president's support didn't get you over the line in New Jersey, which means, Pat, we've got work to do. And you know what the number one thing that the voters talked about? Echo, echo the raging Cajun, they said it was affordable, life affordability led by

• 2:08:53Tom Ellsworth?

  housing. Life affordability was number one. So, we need the president's jobs to happen. We need that 1.5 trillion dollars that's being spent by companies to build factories and give opportunity here in America to happen, so the jobs can come out of that. That's what we need. And I think 26 is gonna be good, but I'm not spinning it. The Republicans have got work to do, conservatives have got work to do, and we can't just sit back and say, "Oh, boy, I can't wait to see, see what happens in New York, everybody's gonna not like that, and then we're gonna get a Republican governor." I think that will happen, but there's a lot of work to be done here. But it's not, this was not the bloodbath people are saying, but no spin, there's work to do.

• 2:09:36Speaker 05

  Well, make a great point, and that's, that's why the president's so focused on bringing interest rates down. And that's why it's so dangerous that the Fed is-

• 2:09:46Tom Ellsworth?

  Makes it cheaper to build.

• 2:09:47Speaker 05

  That's correct. And not only that, but cheaper to take out a mortgage. I mean, you know, cheaper to buy things. So, that's why it's so dangerous that the Fed is so obsessed with inflation incorrectly, not just those points, but there's something else that influences the Fed that they completely got it wrong on, and I don't even know if the Fed knows this. The University of Michigan, as you know, is considered to be one of the gold standards on surveys, and the Fed looks at this, it's influenced by it. So, they do, they do a survey on inflation. And the most recent University of Michigan survey on inflation showed that they see the future expectation at 4.6%, which is really, really high compared to, even if you look at the 2.9, which is overstated. Now, we know this country may be 50-50 Democrat-Republican. So, you should survey 50-50, and in the past, they have.

• 2:10:32Speaker 05

  However, in the most recent survey that showed 4.6, they took 65% of the respondents-

• 2:10:38Tom Ellsworth?

  Can they do that?

• 2:10:39Speaker 05

  I guess they could do whatever they want, especially-

• 2:10:40Tom Ellsworth?

  65% was Democrats?

• 2:10:42Speaker 05

  65% Democrat, 35% Republican. But here's the key, Republicans see inflation future expectation as 1.5. Democrats see it as 5.1%. It's a huge difference, right? Now, when you, if you were to say, "Okay, let's just split the difference representative of where the country..." Oh, by the way, 4% of those Democratic respondents said inflation's gonna be 30%. So, it really skewed the numbers higher. So, when you-

• 2:11:10Tom Ellsworth?

  Apparently vacationing here from Argentina.

• 2:11:12Speaker 05

  Both those numbers are, the 4.6-

• 2:11:14Speaker 07

  And the 1.5 I think are both ridiculous.

• 2:11:16Speaker 05

  Yeah, yeah. So, so when you, when you look at what it would be if we took a 50 50 representation, it'd be 3.3%. But then the Fed would be saying, okay, well, you know, 3.3 not that far off, but if they see 4.6, that's why you get people being obsessed. Inflation's too high, inflation's too high, inflation's too high. This is what influences monetary policy and unfortunately makes it expensive for us, unduly expensive for us in the way we pay for things.

• 2:11:41Speaker 07

  What do you think the rate would be if the Fed had no input at all, if it was just treated like the 10 year treasury? Cause I often wonder what would happen if the market was the one that just determined the rate of borrowing.

• 2:11:50Speaker 05

  Well, you know, you could make an argument for that we don't need a Fed.

• 2:11:54Speaker 07

  I don't think we do.

• 2:11:55Speaker 05

  You know, if you go back to 1913, when the Fed was created is because I guess we kept getting, the government kept getting tired of going to people like JP Morgan to save us and bail us out. So.

• 2:12:06Speaker 07

  Who was the one causing the problem in the first place?

• 2:12:08Speaker 05

  You could be exactly right, but I, I believe that that was the purpose of why we have that. And at times the Fed has really done a good thing for keeping stability for us. Certainly during COVID, that was probably a good thing to have a Fed, but they have done a lot of damage. Post-COVID, keeping rates too low, creating, being complicit in causing inflation to rise further than it should have, keeping rates too high now.

• 2:12:33Speaker 07

  I think you could track every bubble and crash to them though, cause like, look at 2008, they cut to try to rebuild from 2001 and they led to that. So they try and then they baby de-comme from post 08 to 2020.

• 2:12:43Speaker 05

  Analogous to driving down the freeway, but looking in the rearview mirror. It's dangerous because they just look at old data. They do not do a good job of looking through the windshield and seeing what's coming.

• 2:12:51Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, I'm a bull, not a bear. I think the future looks bright and it's got to unfold, but there's work to do.

• 2:12:55Speaker 02

  Yep, I'm with you as well. Well, there's a lot of politics covered today on Wednesday, Business Wednesday, simply because the election was won last night. And it was done. So we couldn't skip it and go till Friday, because a lot of people wanted us to talk about it. But having said that, Barry, great having you on, buddy. This was great. Appreciate your insight.

• 2:13:13Speaker 05

  It's been wonderful.

• 2:13:14Speaker 02

  You're great and the gang, everybody else.

• 2:13:18Speaker 02

  If you haven't yet registered for Business Planning Workshop, please do so. Make sure to go to the link below that we have. And everybody else, we are back on. Rob, do we have anything going on tomorrow? Is it Friday?

• 2:13:28Tom Ellsworth?

  Friday.

• 2:13:29Speaker 02

  We'll be back on again on Friday. Home team, take care, everybody. God bless. Bye bye, bye bye.

• 2:13:34Speaker 03

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