Tucker’s Unhinged WW3 Conspiracy Theory has Gone Absolutely Nuclear Online | The Tom Bilyeu Show

Hey everybody, Tom Bilyeu here. On today’s episode of The Tom Bilyeu Show, we’re diving headfirst into the whirlwind of political chaos, market volatility, and the seismic shifts happening across the globe. The conversation focused on everything from Tucker’s explosive World War III conspiracy theory and the real risks behind nuclear escalation, to the latest maneuvers in the polls on the eve of Election Day, and why hedge funds are making moves that could shake the entire market. A key theme that emerged was how AI is radically changing the internet—and maybe even the economic landscape itself—as companies like OpenAI and Anthropic find themselves wrestling with shrinking funding and existential questions about their future. The discussion explored why poll numbers are losing credibility, the fractures forming within political parties, and the economic consequences of instability in Europe, with a special lens on the looming constitutional crisis in Poland. We’ll break down the recent Learjet crash in Florida, unpack the mechanics behind the tragedy, and look at how private credit defaults are quietly setting records that could spell trouble ahead. Plus, expect unfiltered takes on the struggles facing Gen Z in the job market, the long-term dangers of short-form video addiction, and where hope might still lie for healthcare reform amid all the dysfunction. Buckle up—today’s episode is about challenging the narratives, questioning who’s in control, and understanding what it all means for your wallet, your future, and your mental game. Stay tuned—this is one you won’t want to miss. What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: Want my help starting a business? Join me here inside Zero To Founder https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show Sign up for my AI Masterclass: AI Masterclass https://tombilyeu.com/ai-masterclass?utm_campaign=Live%20Masterclass&utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=evergreen Follow Me: Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok:https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter:https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Thank you to our Sponsors: Tailor Brands: Check out Tailor Brands to launch your business starting at $0 + state fees: https://bit.ly/TailorBrandsSept Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpod Quo: ​​Try for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months at https://quo.com/impact Ketone IQ: Visit https://ketone.com/IMPACT for 30% OFF your subscription order PLUS receive a free gift with your second shipment—or find Ketone-IQ at CVS stores nationwide and get $5 off your first 6-pack for a limited time! Shopify: Sign up for your free trial period at https://shopify.com/impact See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:01Speaker 00

  The mighty dollar. Once upon a time, it had a whole menu named after it. Now, no more. But $1 a day lets you add Progressive Renters Insurance to your auto insurance. Definitely something your younger self would roll their eyes at, but your current adulting self appreciates. Learn more at progressive.com. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company affiliates and other insurers. Average premium cost based on Progressive Home data from 2025. Product and prices may vary by state.

• 0:30Tom Bilyeu?

  Let's talk about the moment your side hustle becomes a real business. Now, I see way too many founders stay stuck running their business like it's a hobby, and then they wonder why nothing ever feels real. It doesn't feel real because it's not. I've helped thousands of entrepreneurs build real businesses through Impact Theory University, and the first step in the path to building a legit business is registering it. And Tailor Brands will help you do just that in a few clicks. An LLC, a limited liability company, is an official business structure. It's inexpensive to form and very simple to maintain. It's how you open a business bank account. It's how customers know they're dealing with a real company. And Tailor Brands doesn't stop at the filing.

• 1:15Tom Bilyeu?

  Their dashboard tracks what comes next based on what your business actually needs. So EIN number, registered agent, licenses and permits, bookkeeping, business banking. I tell every founder the same thing. Just make it official. Click the link in the show notes to check out Tailor Brands and get started on your business today. This is a paid advertisement. Tucker's unhinged World War III conspiracy theory has gone absolutely nuclear online. You're not going to believe this one. All hell has broken loose in politics as Democrat Haley Stevens has done the unthinkable in the Al-Sayed runoff. Tomorrow is election day. If you guys aren't paying attention, buckle up.

• 1:58Tom Bilyeu?

  The final New York Times/Siena polls are pretty shocking, but the question is, are they actually accurate? Speaking of shocking, hedge funds are making a big move that could rattle the entire market right as private credit defaults set the wrong kind of record. AI is having a very surprising impact on the internet as a whole, and it may be part of why OpenAI has been forced to reduce its most recent funding round. We're going to get into the details there. Speaking of details, man, do you guys know about the crisis in Poland? It is worse than people realize, and the European riots have gotten so bad, they've spread to a country no one expected. There is so much instability in Europe.

• 2:39Tom Bilyeu?

  Plus, we've got a breakdown of the insane truth behind the Lear jet crash in Florida. You're going to want to tuck the kids away when we get to that story. We've got audio recordings as the plane went down. It is wild. If you guys haven't seen the footage, yo, buckle up. It, it really is very distressing. All of that and more right now on the Tom and Bill U Show Live. Happy Monday, everybody. Welcome. All right. Tucker's unhinged World War III conspiracy theory has gone absolutely nuclear online. It is pretty wild what he's claiming, but distressingly, there's actually a lot of logic once you get past his escalatory claim. So if you guys didn't see it, Tucker Carlson posted on X Sunday night

• 3:22Tom Bilyeu?

  that the Trump administration may be within days of a nuclear strike on Iran. Now, the core of the argument is that Trump is reluctant, but Bibi Netanyahu is pushing for it. And in Tucker's world, what Bibi wants, Bibi gets. We'll get more into that in a minute. Now, according to Tucker, the target of the nuclear strike would be Pickaxe Mountain. I don't think anybody's surprised to hear that. We've heard all kinds of stuff about them going back into Pickaxe Mountain, putting nuclear materials in there, trying to spin back up their program. However, the bad news is Pickaxe Mountain is a tunnel complex that has buried a full 80 to 100 meters in granite.

• 4:04Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, like I was saying, in fairness to Tucker, his chain of logic on the logistics of the strike are real. The rest is where it gets a bit dubious. Now, Israeli intelligence says that centrifuges have in fact moved in and that they are buried so deep that no conventional bomb, not even the Moab or the bunker busters can reach that deep. Therefore, if you are going to take it out from the air, your only realistic option is nuclear. Now, that doesn't mean that we're going to do it. Now, according to Tucker's unnamed source, this isn't like a background issue. This is like nonstop violence in terms of a pressure campaign from Bibi Netanyahu to Trump.

• 4:48Tom Bilyeu?

  According to Tucker's X post, this is a quote, "Bibi calls Trump about it every day." Supposedly, the decision is going to be made by November 7th. So we're just waiting to get it on the other side of the midterms and then all bets are off. Now, I would love to just hand wave all of this away as Tucker being a little too obsessed with Israel, but the Israeli pressure part does actually check out, or at least there are other sources saying the same thing. Axios also reported, I think it was the same night, that Netanyahu spent a tense Saturday call pushing Trump to strike immediately after Tuesday's midterms. Why, you ask? Because Netanyahu came out of last week's Israeli election with no majority.

• 5:31Tom Bilyeu?

  So he needs this war, at least as the argument goes, to help him build up a coalition and stay in power and avoid a mass of legal woes. Everybody is expecting that if he loses power, that they're going to descend on him, try him, lock him up. There was, if you remember, even before the war kicked off, there was all kinds of calls for him to be removed from office, even if forcibly. People have been very divided on Netanyahu within Israel for quite some time now. Now, some are even saying that without Trump directly helping him secure a coalition government in Israel, he's toast. So the calls are that people are saying that what Netanyahu wants Trump to do

• 6:15Tom Bilyeu?

  to help him stay in power is make some back channel phone calls to other politicians in Israel, make promises of what I have no idea, but the, not the least of which would be that he's going to continue to pressure Iran militarily. But if you step back from all of that for a second, here's why I think the nuclear claim is insane and way overdrawn. Carlson himself actually laid out the consequences of a US nuclear strike in his post, and after laying that out so cogently, I am surprised that he still thinks that's what's coming. It would be insanely self-defeating for the US to do that. And not just for the US, but for the entire world. There is no way that Trump doesn't understand that.

• 6:58Tom Bilyeu?

  There's no way that his advisors don't understand that. So as we walk through this, I hope you guys will draw the same conclusion. I do, which is that a nuclear warhead is not going to be used. First of all, the reason I don't think this is going to play out is a nuclear warhead used on a buried target is a ground burst nuclear strike. So a ground burst nuclear strike would throw a radiated rock and soil into the air as fallout, and that would go all over the place. It will contaminate drinking water and put tens of millions of people in a radiological crisis. Downwind, you've got a whole bunch of US allies. The Persian Gulf, where you've got Saudi Arabia, the Emiratis, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, all of them are going to be in the fallout zone.

• 7:42Tom Bilyeu?

  They would be massively impacted and oil prices would go crazy. They would spike so hard, they would likely be untradeable. Hormuz is already still in the middle of all the tanker attacks, and a nuclear attack would be completely unhinged in terms of its impact on global energy prices. But honestly, none of that is what I consider the worst part and the reason that this is very unlikely to be the outcome. The thing that people should really be thinking about is the nuclear escalation that would happen all around the world. As of right now, America is the only country to have ever used a nuclear weapon in war.

• 8:24Tom Bilyeu?

  But if we use one again, like a bunch of sociopaths, and use it on a non-nuclear state, every nuclear armed government around the world will read that as a green light. All of a sudden, nukes are back on the menu of options. So far, everybody, even Russia, even North Korea, has been like, all right, I got them, I'll flex them, I'll talk about them. They don't actually use them. If the US is like, listen, listen, sometimes there's a thing so important that you would use it. Now you've got Russia putting that on the menu of items over the Ukraine. You've got India and Pakistan, who've had itchy trigger fingers for a long ass time.

• 9:06Tom Bilyeu?

  Obviously, North Korea versus South Korea targeting Seoul. So that would become so dangerous for the entire world. I would be beside myself with shock if Trump actually went ahead with this. The non-proliferation treaty would die the exact moment that we drop that nuke because every country without a nuke learns a very simple lesson. The only thing that stops a strike is having one. So boy, oh, boy. I firmly expect clear heads to prevail. Trump has been saying via Rubio that he still wants a diplomatic solution to all of this. And

• 9:51Tom Bilyeu?

  That I think is ultimately the only thing that makes any sense. Trump ruled out nuclear weapons back on October 16th. He said, I wouldn't use nuclear. We don't have to. So let that be a thing that rings through this entire discussion. Tucker's post is a reminder, though, of just how much is at stake. But I don't think that we have any reason to believe that Trump is actually going to do that. Now, do I think we have reason to believe that Trump is going to launch another attack? He has certainly said as much. I just don't think it's going to be nuclear. So while I think that we are probably looking at a return to kinetic hostilities, I do not expect this one to be nuclear.

• 10:34Speaker 02

  We just got reports in that US oil prices are dropping after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says that the president prefers to use, to not use military force and would like to resolve the Iran war diplomatically.

• 10:45Tom Bilyeu?

  It is hilarious to me how reactive the markets are. Now, we do have to separate here the difference between the paper prices, which is what that quote is about. And then the landed prices, I haven't looked into the landed prices this weekend, but at last check, ooh buddy, they were still high.

• 11:01Speaker 02

  Yeah, those don't play around. Those don't fluctuate.

• 11:03Tom Bilyeu?

  Nope, not, not that fast.

• 11:04Speaker 02

  I don't care what your paper says. It's going, it's oil, a drum of oil, it's going to cost you. There's been a lot of speculation on what exactly is going to happen. We heard Iran is going to wait until after the election. We heard Trump was going to wait until after the election. It seems like tomorrow is going to be the hinging point and can pretty much dictate what are the terms of our future.

• 11:23Tom Bilyeu?

  Yes.

• 11:23Speaker 02

  Do you think it's really hanging on that like quote unquote, blue wave or red resistance?

• 11:29Tom Bilyeu?

  Well, I think that there, it, no matter what happens, there is going to be a response to what happens. I think if Trump is, retains control, and we'll get to this when we look at the polls, I think is very unlikely. But if he were by some miracle to do that, he'll probably be more measured. I think if he's given the hand that like, okay, the only thing I have left are the things that I can control outside of needing to engage with Congress. Then he goes back into just hardcore EO mode. He goes into, well, there's a certain amount of striking that I can do before they can stop me. And I think that he will do all of the things that he can to try to get a result because he knows that he's now going into lame duck territory.

• 12:12Tom Bilyeu?

  He's not a person that I think will sit well with lame duck territory. So it'll be interesting to see if he lashes out. As a reminder, we've covered this a lot, but countries tend to get their most aggressive when they see that they have a narrowing window to act. As a reminder, Pearl Harbor became a thing specifically because the US and England cut Japan off from oil. And they realized, okay, we've got about 18 months where we've got to make something happen here. And so they moved to strike the US. So I don't, I, I think he is likely to be more tempered if he has more of a runway. If he feels like, okay, I've still got control-ish, if you will. He's been stymied.

• 12:57Tom Bilyeu?

  He hasn't been able to get much legislation through anyway. But I, yeah, I think that his psychology will be impacted enough that he's less likely to be ultra aggressive and bombastic if he maintains some control in the House and the Senate. Luxury brands are not charging you more for better cashmere. You're paying for the storefront, the ad budget, the name on the tag, but Quince cuts all of that out. They work directly with ethical factories. They skip the middlemen and sell 100% Mongolian cashmere, starting at just 60 bucks. 50 to 80% less than similar brands. Now, I gave one of these as a gift last year. It was a big hit and gifting is really the test of a brand.

• 13:40Tom Bilyeu?

  You might tolerate a lot of stuff in your own closet that you would never give to somebody else. I've got their joggers and a couple of their tees as well, and I can tell you their whole line is high quality. Give the gift of quality this holiday season. Download the Quince app for app exclusive offers or go to quince.com. Get free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. It's now also available in Canada and the UK. And when Quince asks where you heard about them, make sure you tell them that it was on Impact Theory. That's the best way to support the show. Let's talk about something that genuinely keeps me awake at night. My team at Impact Theory gets hit with phishing scams from bad actors pretending to be me all the time.

• 14:24Tom Bilyeu?

  And they keep getting more sophisticated attacks with details specific enough to look legit. AI has made a lot of things possible, including scams like this, but AI still needs raw material. It gets it from data brokers who sell your name, address, phone number to anyone willing to pay. Incogni goes after that supply. They handle removal requests across 420 plus harmful broker sites and they keep checking back as brokers constantly try to relist you. On the unlimited plan, the exposure scanner hunts down your information. Send a link and their privacy experts handle the takedown. Track your progress in the app and get a monthly risk assessment showing exactly where you stand.

• 15:08Tom Bilyeu?

  Go to incogni.com/impact and use code IMPACT for 60% off an annual plan. Incogni is I-N-C-O-G-N-I.com/impact. Promo code IMPACT. It's completely risk free with a 30 day money back guarantee. You're probably paying two salespeople to do one salesperson's job. That's where today's sponsor, Pipe Drive, comes in. An intelligent AI powered sales CRM loved by growing sales teams. Pipe Drive just launched meeting intelligence built right into the CRM. Before every call, it pulls deal history and past conversations into one brief. During the call, it records and takes notes.

• 15:53Tom Bilyeu?

  After it, it drafts your CRM updates to review and approve. So there's less admin and more selling. Switch to a CRM built by salespeople for salespeople and join the over 100,000 companies already using Pipe Drive. My link gets you an exclusive 30 days free instead of the usual 14 day trial. There's no credit card payment needed. Just head to pipedrive.com/impact to get started. Again, that's pipedrive.com/impact and you can be up and running in minutes.

• 16:28Speaker 02

  We don't know if he's going to press the nuclear button physically, but what if he does like the political nuclear button where he then does an all out ground invasion of Iran and doesn't allow the transfer of power because we are at war, pulls a Zelensky? There's some speculation about that as well. Do you think that that's just internet rot brain or there's some credence there?

• 16:47Tom Bilyeu?

  I don't think he'll do it, but that one feels more like emotion than having a strong backing of data points to say that he won't do it. But he has been very sensitive to, there's a certain type of way that he prosecutes a war and that has been from the air, very surgical strikes. I think he's been stymied enough in Iran that he is very unlikely to think, oh, well, if I put troops on the ground, that this is all going to go swimmingly. I think he's been punched in the nose enough times in Iran that he realizes, okay, these guys are not to be trifled with. I think part of the reason he wants a diplomatic solution is one, I actually believe him, let that not be naivete, but I actually believe him when he says that he doesn't want to

• 17:30Tom Bilyeu?

  see death, whether it's in Ukraine, whether it's US soldiers. I think that he has tried to keep troops off the ground because he knows that the death toll will be staggering. Also, if he's paying attention, what's going on in Russia, then he understands how quickly these front lines are going to solidify, that it's going to be drone warfare, that we won't be able to throw a bunch of expensive things at this, that it will get very grindy on the front lines. And he will not survive politically, a bunch of US soldiers dying. There's no way. And so it's like, man, would that be a break glass in case of emergency kind of thing

• 18:10Tom Bilyeu?

  where he thinks, okay, I've got one last hail Mary where I can retain power for a while. Oh God, it just, that does not feel like it's going to be the play. I think he will limp along. I think he will try to find some story that allows him to get out of this and putting people's attention somewhere else. And then basically kicking the can down the road and saying, okay, we've got them at a stalemate. We're, you know, effectively mowing the lawn. We're stopping them from making additional progress. We're not able to completely decimate without using a nuke. We're not going to be able to get deep into Pickaxe Mountain. However, we can continue the Anaconda approach.

• 18:51Tom Bilyeu?

  I think it will be something like that, but I don't see an easy end to this unless Iran's economy really does break. Now, the rumors are that you have people that were traditionally far more hard lined in Iran finally saying, all right, listen, a return to kinetic strikes, we don't want that. And so we're in a much better position if we can actually find a negotiated way out of this. But you get back to Iran is famously very frustrating to negotiate with. So that's not going to be an easy path, but if we can sort of stall things out for. I don't know, a year and buy some time for the economics to really wear them down

• 19:32Tom Bilyeu?

  without an election standing over your shoulder, uh, forcing you to constantly exacerbate the situation. I think that's probably more likely, but we'll see.

• 19:44Speaker 02

  I just want to kind of fact check the couple of things because this is a report coming from Tucker. Some people have skepticism when it comes to him. Do you think that Trump, that Tucker does has insiders and there is some sliver of truth? Maybe it isn't bombastic. Do you think Israel would want to escalate the war this much? Or is this just again, I'm trying to like tease out what actually will happen versus what is just noise around the midterms type of thing.

• 20:08Tom Bilyeu?

  My read on Tucker is that he really does have a lot of information. He's been in the thick of things for a very long time. So I think when he says, I've got somebody that's saying this, they probably really are saying it. The conclusions that he draws though are so overwrought that I think from the perspective of the conclusions that he draws, those I wouldn't take seriously. So I would take the information and say, okay, here you've got Bibi applying a ton of pressure on, uh, Trump. You've got Bibi in a difficult situation politically in that he probably really does need Trump to come in and help him build a coalition government. But the odds that then Trump will somehow suddenly go, oh, that means I have to do a nuclear strike,

• 20:51Tom Bilyeu?

  knowing all of the knock on effects, that seems very unlikely.

• 20:55Speaker 02

  Yeah. We started this war in February. We thought we were going to do it. We applied sanctions in July, then we temporarily took them back off. Then we put, uh, applied them again. So at this point, I don't want to say we're just like they were two weeks away from a nuclear weapon. And now I was like,

• 21:12Tom Bilyeu?

  The Dead Sea Scrolls?

• 21:13Speaker 02

  Yeah, I feel like now we're two weeks away from like their economy crippling.

• 21:17Tom Bilyeu?

  That's actually a really good point, Drew.

• 21:18Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 21:19Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah. So they, their economy really is crippling. And if the U S were to suddenly experience what they're experiencing, there would be a naked revolt in the streets for sure. So we can't take that away in terms of the actual impact on the ground level is something like somewhere between, I've seen both stats and I think it's just been escalating, but between 90 and 300% inflation.

• 21:41Speaker 02

  It's crazy.

• 21:42Tom Bilyeu?

  So when you're getting that kind of inflation, people really are going to be suffering. It's just, given that they shot tens of thousands of people, their own citizens, they are willing to make them suffer. And I want to remind everybody, if this is reading internally to the people that support the regime as jihad, then this is a very different thing. God is asking you to make a sacrifice to get the victory. And when you believe in that to your core, there is a lot of suffering that you will endure in the name of doing what God wants. And so removing that from the picture will make it impossible for a Western audience to understand the mentality inside the country. And so just like here in the U S, there's massive division between the two sides.

• 22:28Tom Bilyeu?

  You can assume the same is true basically everywhere, but certainly in Iran. And if one side has the guns and will shoot you in the face for going into the streets and expressing your dissent, then you're in a very difficult situation. So one, they would have to get armed. There have been rumors for a while that the opposition is sort of slowly getting armed behind the scenes. We'll see if that actually ends up being true. But they've had opportunities to rise up and they have not taken them. So it just becomes a question of, are there enough people on the side that want to return to something that more approaches Western values like we saw in the seventies under the Shah? Or are there way more people that want this jihad against the West to continue?

• 23:12Tom Bilyeu?

  And they're just not going to back down for any reason whatsoever. That is what is going to play out. That's what we're going to see.

• 23:20Speaker 02

  All right. And I feel like we're going to find out tomorrow, but there's a lot of things happening around the midterms that are just getting interesting.

• 23:26Tom Bilyeu?

  This is wild.

• 23:27Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 23:27Tom Bilyeu?

  This is wild. On November 1st, two days before the election, Haley Stevens stood next to Mike Rogers at perfecting church in Detroit and endorsed him for the Senate. So you've got now a Democrat going against El Said in that race in Michigan. There have been other Democrats that have come out against, uh, for the opposition and against their Democrat, um, teammates. So the fact that that is playing out is very unusual. And so this I think is a tug of war between, uh, I guess if we're going to call them the establishment Democrats, the traditional Democrats, and then the far left wing of the party, the DSA energy.

• 24:09Tom Bilyeu?

  I know El Said has tried to distance himself from the, uh, the DSA. I do not buy it at a policy level. I think that they are very much aligned. You don't have to look much farther than things El Said himself has been saying. Uh, so now the question becomes, how far is this going to go? Because when you look at the polls, the polls do not suggest that this is going to make that much of a difference. That El Said in his own race is far enough ahead that he is likely to beat Mike Rogers, but it does show they have a big fracture in the Democratic Party. Now going back to Stevens, she'd been scheduled to appear with El Said and Jim Clyburn at a different Detroit church that same morning. And then El Said's campaign pulled the invitation.

• 24:54Tom Bilyeu?

  So there was obviously a lot of tension going back and forth between the two in the buildup to this. Now Stevens stated reason was short, she's not being very explicit about what it is about El Said that she doesn't like. This is the part that gets very troubling. Uh, one, if for no other reason, then El Said is a very talented politician. He is extremely bright. He is very articulate and he's very good at moving around, uh, a lot of the ways that reporters and other people try to trap him. Now in a video posted to X, Stevens said El Said had told her she was no longer welcome in his campaign.

• 25:37Tom Bilyeu?

  We don't know exactly why, but she said, he's right. Uh, she said, I don't belong in Abdul's campaign. She said 90% of her votes will still go to Democrats and called the switch a weight off my shoulders. When pressed by CNN that night though, she would not say anymore. So when you look at the context, it seems like this is tied to a week long fight over an ad. You had an outside group run by actual former, uh, guest on Impact Theory, Chank Yuger, uh, who put a thousand dollar online spot showing that a couple putting groceries back to, um, set that $7 aside for killing Palestinians.

• 26:19Tom Bilyeu?

  So basically trying to make this all about what's going on between Israel and Gaza. And the Anti-Defamation League called it a case study in antisemitism. Now, if that's what this is really about, Stevens is not being very explicit about it, but that had been some tension leading up to this. El Said's campaign said that the ad wasn't theirs and they certainly stressed that over and over, but they didn't condemn the content. Stevens, whose fiance is Jewish, uh, and had already said that he'd vote for Rogers, wrote on October 30th that a, a quote, "A disclaimer is not a condemnation." And demanded El Said apologize for his own rhetoric linking Israel to Michigan's cost of living.

• 27:03Tom Bilyeu?

  So, uh, we'll see how this plays out. Schumer, by the way, called the endorsement a despicable betrayal. And you can expect to see a lot more of that as this fraction within the Democrats continues to, uh, grow. But we'll see in the elections, how many of the far left candidates end up actually getting elected. All right. Speaking of that, let's look at the polls. So the Real Clear polling average has El Said up 5.3. So you're 50 to 45. The latest Mitchell poll for CBS Detroit has him up seven, 51 to 44, with independents breaking his way 52 to 38. So it is not looking good for Stevens at this point, if the polls can be believed.

• 27:46Tom Bilyeu?

  YouGov says 51 to 47. Insider Advantage says it's just one point. Polymarket has him at 78% likely to win. No Republican has won a Michigan Senate race since 1994. So all of that is certainly stacked against Rogers. Now Rogers needs this to move the Jewish and undecided suburban voters in basically 48 hours. So when you look at the actual polling, it all says that is a very tall order. And we'll see if we're able to actually, uh, get to that. Now, when you look at the New York Times, Siena polls, they are also pretty shocking.

• 28:27Tom Bilyeu?

  Basically saying that this is going to be just an absolute blue annihilation. So meaning they're going to win everything. So the final polls put Democrats ahead in all seven Senate races that are going to decide the chamber. You've got Texas, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Michigan. And while Dems are also ahead in Alaska and Iowa, those who are just within the margin of error, but they're still tracking ahead. The problem is in 2016, the final state polls had Clinton taking Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and she ended up losing all three. In 2020, the industry's own postmortem called it the worst polling miss in 40 years.

• 29:11Tom Bilyeu?

  So national polls are taking a beating. They've overstated things like Biden's margin by 3.9 points, state polls by 4.3, Senate and governor polls by six. Susan Collins trailed in every public poll in Maine that year and still won by 8.6 points. So in 2024, the final Times Siena polls had Harris ahead in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia, and tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, but yet Trump swept all seven swing states.

• 29:44Tom Bilyeu?

  So how trustworthy are the polls right now? What is going on? What is the discrepancy between the polling and the people? Are the polls trying to take a political side? And they're trying to put something forward as like, hey, these guys are winning in the hopes that it gets people to go vote because they think that their side is going to win? Are they trying to demoralize the other side? It's tough to say because they've been wrong in different directions. Battleground polls underestimated him by about 2.7 points. Three presidential elections in a row, all in the same direction. Now, part of like all this madness is mechanical. So Time Siena response rates run under 2%. Before the 2024 vote, the Time Zone polling chief admitted white Democrats were 16% likelier to answer than white Republicans.

• 30:29Tom Bilyeu?

  So if you've got half the people that are going to be polled, just like not wanting to say, then you're certainly not getting a very clear picture of what's going on. Now, I'll say that midterm polls have traditionally been better than the national ones. So, or the big cycles, the presidential elections. And the 2025 off-year polls have missed in the other direction, underrating Democrats by six points. So you're, you can expect errors is basically the punchline. But which direction are the errors going to be in? That has been historically harder to pin down. So are the polls right? Probably not. But are they off in the direction favoring Democrats?

• 31:13Tom Bilyeu?

  Or is it going to be even worse? And the Democrats or the Republicans are even farther behind than we think. So we are about to find out. Uh, it all happens tomorrow.

• 31:23Speaker 02

  I kinda wanna show the ad, um, but I don't know if you wanna overindex on Haley Stevens specifically or not.

• 31:29Tom Bilyeu?

  Let's play it, let's see what's going on. So this is the Chank Uger ad.

• 31:33Speaker 02

  Yeah, that started the beef.

• 31:35Speaker 03

  We get all the sandwich stuff for the kids lunch? They don't like turkey anymore.

• 31:39Speaker 04

  Yeah, I know.

• 31:40Speaker 03

  What about the bananas?

• 31:42Speaker 04

  Yeah, I got them too. But honey.

• 31:45Speaker 03

  What?

• 31:46Speaker 04

  You're gonna have to put those eggs back.

• 31:48Speaker 03

  They don't like eggs anymore?

• 31:50Speaker 04

  No, they like eggs, but we have to set that $7 aside for killing Palestinians.

• 31:57Speaker 03

  What? I mean, don't we give Israel $4 billion a year anyways?

• 32:00Speaker 04

  Yeah, and now we're giving them another $26 billion. Do you know how much that is per American taxpayer?

• 32:08Speaker 03

  No.

• 32:08Speaker 04

  It's like $161 per person. Apparently it's costing us a lot of money to drop bombs on Gaza.

• 32:14Speaker 03

  It's terrible.

• 32:16Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 32:18Speaker 03

  Don't they get universal healthcare too?

• 32:20Speaker 04

  Yeah, they do. We're paying for that too, probably. Might as well put the bananas back.

• 32:26Speaker 03

  Why the do we have to pay for all of this?

• 32:30Speaker 04

  Don't cuss at me.

• 32:32Tom Bilyeu?

  Why does Mike Rogers care so? Yeah, I mean, listen, it, they're, the Democrats are doing a very good job of making this about Trump and making this about Israel. And one of the things that I've seen them beating the drum is a vote for Mike Rogers is a vote for Trump. I thought that was very smart. If you know that Trump's favorability ratings are low, and they are low, then trying to associate anyone with him is a very smart political move, for sure. So if they, if they've done an effective job of that, I think then the polls are probably directionally correct.

• 33:07Speaker 05

  Whoever says saving money is hard doesn't know that new customers who bundle and save with Progressive save hundreds because switching your home and auto insurance is better than cutting down on the things you love. Like those ice lattes that help you get ready to face the day. So switch your home and auto to Progressive and see if you could save and keep sipping away. Get your quote today at progressive.com. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company affiliates and other insurers, not available in all states.

• 33:37Speaker 06

  In a world where everyone drives distracted, danger lurks ahead. Drivers swerve, collisions litter the shoulders, chances are taken and lives lost. They're driven by a compulsion, a compulsion to respond. Sounds like a movie. Unfortunately, it's our reality. Eyes on the road, not on your phone. A message from the Virginia DMV.

• 34:06Speaker 02

  Uh, I'm gonna put this in the same camp as Thomas Massey earlier this year because during the primaries, the AIPAC lobby has spent over $30 million endorsing Haley Stevenson, trying to get Abdul Saheed out of here. They unfortunately didn't pull a Kentucky and win. So I think Haley Stevenson, Haley Stevens now is just siding with their backers. So she's getting the same money that Mike Rogers is getting. So it's easy for them to stay and shoulder to shoulder. After a while, we're gonna start realizing that it's not the blue and red, it's who's paying their bills. And if the same people are paying their bills, it doesn't matter what you say or what letters next to your name, y'all on the same team.

• 34:39Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, it's, uh, money in politics is wild, man. It is wild.

• 34:43Speaker 02

  Um, there's a bunch of speculation. Polls say one thing, results say another thing. I was always anti-poll because I just felt like nobody ever asked me something and I'm smart. So if they're not indexing for me, who else smart people are they not indexing for? So how much stock do you put in these poll numbers? Do you think that there's some credence to this blue wave that everybody keeps talking about?

• 35:03Tom Bilyeu?

  Well, so set the polls aside for a second. If you just look at Trump's favorability rating, if you look at the state of the economy, it's really going to be hard to get people excited about your side. The only thing that you can do is get them to vote against the other side. So that's a dangerous place for the Republicans to be right now. So even like if you said, hey, I've got polls and one side shows being way ahead. I'd be like, obviously the Democrats, because almost always elections are a referendum on the people in power, the midterm elections. And the president made a lot of promises. He had a lot of goodwill going into the beginning of his term. And he has squandered that goodwill very aggressively.

• 35:44Tom Bilyeu?

  And he has essentially nothing to show for it, for the people that he needs to win over the most. So the fact that people are looking at, everything is more expensive. You said that there were gonna be no new wars, that you were the peace president. And yet here we are with a war that is dragging on. You had a good showing in Venezuela and a terrible showing in Iran. So there are gonna be very few people that are like, oh my God, he's amazing. And then you look at his own favorability ratings, they've been going down, down, down, down, down. So you put all that together and if you had the poll results in a blind envelope, I would have said, oh, if one side is showing up, it's gotta be the Democrats. There's no way that Republicans are polling ahead right now. Now, is there enough energy against the far left wing of the Democratic Party

• 36:29Tom Bilyeu?

  that people actually will vote against them? So again, not voting for Republicans, just voting against the far left of the Democrat wing? That is a question that I can't answer. That has me so animated, I'm way more animated against the far left DSA wing than I am opposed to what the Republicans are doing. So it's like, I hate them both, but one of them is far more troubling to me. So I think that there are going to be some number of people that share that sentiment. I just do not expect it to be enough to secure them, the Senate and the House.

• 37:01Speaker 02

  Yeah, I feel like that's the Republican strategy right now is that everybody's DSA, we need to worry about it. It's coming, they're trying to take everything, they're gonna ruin our economy, they're gonna ruin the world. So I think that's what Republicans are running on because they can't hang their head on the successes of the last two years.

• 37:13Tom Bilyeu?

  100%.

• 37:14Speaker 02

  They don't have it.

• 37:14Tom Bilyeu?

  So it's like, you've got all these weird things popping off. So Europe is like showing us what it looks like when you have far left policies for long enough. That's been burning. I, I didn't even put it in the read because France burning again is like so boring. And people be like, wait, am I just watching the same episode? Dude, they, they're still going. They've been going since September. So that, that is just like so ridiculous. And so you're watching all this play out and it does not go in a direction that you would want it to go. And the Republicans are very smart to make that the core issue. I think that the energy in the Democratic Party is the far left wing. So there's just a reality to be faced there.

• 37:56Tom Bilyeu?

  And the fact that we see all of that energy there really does give them something to campaign on. And then the flip side is you've got the Democrats that can totally take your mind off that and go, bro, look at what they've done to the economy, look at the war that they've started. This is crazy, this guy is not at all who he said he was. And so what are you even doing, like giving him more power? And so this is one of those things that it starts to get wild when both sides really do have legitimate points. I don't know if you've been paying attention to what's going on in Poland. Same idea. You've got both sides acting like lunatics. And because of that, it's like you're, you're, I mean, they are in the middle of essentially a constitutional crisis.

• 38:37Tom Bilyeu?

  So you can expect that kind of energy to continue to swirl here in the US as the debt continues to eat more of our ability to keep things affordable-ish. That's just gonna get worse. And the fact that people in light of all of the debt that we already have, all of the interest that we're having to pay, how much of the budget that's already eating, that people are still banging the drum for universal healthcare is wild. But nonetheless, here we are. Instead of saying, hey, you know what we need to do? There are certain things we care about, we really care about healthcare. Let's balance the budget so that we can get universal healthcare on the docket. But we're not doing that. So it's just more, more, more debt.

• 39:15Speaker 02

  We got a vote in the poll, in the chat right now. What, how do you think the midterms will play out? We have 38% thinking that'll be a blue wave, 15% thinking it'll be a red resistance. Republicans keeping power of all three, uh, uh, branches of power. A 50-50 split is 20% and 27% say they have no idea. So about a third are confused and about 38% think that the Democrats are gonna take it.

• 39:40Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, well, wait, so if you've got a third and a third, that's not enough.

• 39:43Speaker 02

  38, 27. And then the rest is either split between the Republicans will hold power or it's gonna be a 50-50 split.

• 39:51Tom Bilyeu?

  Gosh, oh, oh, 50-50 split. I thought 50-50 was I'm unsure. 50-50 is it'll break, some will go one way.

• 39:57Speaker 02

  Yeah, Democrats will get Senate, Republicans will get House or vice versa.

• 40:00Tom Bilyeu?

  That seems reasonable, blue wave 38%, no idea, 28%. I mean, the real answer is, uh, none of us really know, given how bad polling has been. But I'm so curious what people think based on how unpopular Trump is becoming, what exactly they think people would vote for his side on? Is it what I said or is it something else?

• 40:24Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, it'll be interesting to see what you guys are saying.

• 40:26Speaker 02

  Yeah. Um, we got a couple of super chats relevant to this topic. So I'm gonna jump to those early now. Uh, all right, let's jump into some super chats.

• 40:37Speaker 07

  Yes, which one are you talking about that's relevant?

• 40:39Speaker 02

  You can start at the top because they're all, yeah.

• 40:42Speaker 07

  Cool. Patrick Wrightson says, most recent all-in episode was quite interesting. Seems that actually, seems that actually Anthropic will be unprecedented powerhouse. It was originally projected to be. Seems the debt concerns were either a misread or kind of just cynical noise. Your thoughts?

• 40:56Tom Bilyeu?

  I haven't seen the episode, so I can't speak to that specifically. But I think ultimately, this is always going to come down to the technology is real, but will the debt eat them first? It is way too early to call that they have no debt problems and that they're just going to be able to fund their way out of this. But what will be interesting is I'm far less worried about the survival of Anthropic and far more worried about OpenAI. So we'll see if they end up able to keep getting the funding longer than OpenAI. And if that puts OpenAI under enough stress that it ends up causing a problem. Investors are now starting to move away from some of the historical cash cows, like a Microsoft, like a Google, specifically because they're seeing that their revenue

• 41:39Tom Bilyeu?

  is slowing down its growth pretty dramatically. We'll look at Google's decline a little bit later in the show. But that's where this is all going to be a question is what happens to the debt versus the incomes that go into Anthropic? And if there is a big enough mismatch, you are still going to see a wobble. Remember, my prediction is not that AI drops off the face of the earth or that OpenAI is, that Anthropic or OpenAI for that matter, is going to go out of business. What I'm saying is there's going to be a brutal dip that's going to happen as more and more investors tighten their investing thesis, if you will. What they give debt for and what they don't, they've already begun to constrict that pretty dramatically.

• 42:23Tom Bilyeu?

  And we're going to do a full segment here on the realities of what that's doing to the market. So there are some pretty rough records being set right now that I don't, that do not speak to just like an easy path for Anthropic. So we'll see, but right now, they certainly have a much brighter future than anybody else in the AI space.

• 42:47Speaker 07

  Thank you for the $50.

• 42:48Tom Bilyeu?

  No kidding. Patrick, big supporter. Thank you.

• 42:51Speaker 07

  Big digger says, a wild thought, which keeps me up at night, is what if a non-state actor has nuke capabilities? Not saying I think this is to be the case, but do we think we are, we are not aware of all the major belligerents making moves? Some of all fears.

• 43:06Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, well, okay, so that's a reference to one of the Jack Ryan novels. Yes, the, when you go back and look at what happened in the 90s in Russia, there was, there are great fears that like what they were calling briefcase or suitcase nukes had been taken out of the country or put into the hands of people that were rogue actors. Now, the fact that none of them have gone off this long tells me that maybe that's not as founded a fear as we originally thought. I think there have been plenty of reasons that if people were going to use one, they probably already would have. Now, the bigger question is, as AI gets better and better, what are the odds that it helps people spin this stuff up? Now, the knowledge has been out there for a while and it just seems like it's

• 43:49Tom Bilyeu?

  a very hard engineering challenge. But I do worry that AI makes all scary things easier. And so a lot of things that we just counted on, it's just too hard. That barrier may go down and down and down. So I don't have a big fear that we have non-state actors that are building nukes right now. But that fear does go up as AI makes things easier. The question is, would they be able to spin up the facilities without flagging somebody? And I don't know enough about nuclear engineering to know if that's really a thing. Now, if you guys saw, there's been a recent on the nuclear energy front. There are these shipping container size nuclear power generators that are getting,

• 44:32Tom Bilyeu?

  I think they're in the process of being approved right now here in the US. And the way they would work is they ship you the shipping container. You use the nuclear energy. When the fuel rods are spent, you send them back. They take them out, replace them, refuel it and send it back. So the fact that we've been able to get like a full setup down into a shipping container does tell me that there are advancements being made. Will AI accelerate that to the point where somebody could do it inexpensively enough? I just have a feeling, and again, unfortunately, I have not researched this enough to have anything more than a feeling, but I have a feeling that those supply chains are watched so religiously that it would be pretty tough to spin something like that up without flagging somebody somewhere. So yeah, I'm not super worried about that right now.

• 45:16Tom Bilyeu?

  But ask me again in three years, when AI is solving novel physics problems, I may have a different take.

• 45:24Speaker 07

  Nate of the South says, Tom, do more of the cuff scripture, do more off the cuff scripture. Imagining Christ talking about glass houses is in the Bronze Age had me chuckling all weekend. Much love. Keep helping people.

• 45:37Tom Bilyeu?

  Yes, Drew and I off camera also, Drew is trying to be very encouraging of my, whatever he would call it, but to me, in, in the West, you are so immersed in Christian theology, whether you intend to be or not. All of this stuff, it permeates literary references, film and TV, like all of this stuff is everywhere. So you don't have a Western perspective if you haven't like imbibed a ton of that kind of stuff. So yeah, I'm going to make references to that all the time. Whether I get the scripture right or not, maybe amusing, I suppose, to people that know the scripture well.

• 46:23Tom Bilyeu?

  But the way that I look at religion is religion is just trying to take basically personal development and package it in a, a guy in the sky said this is true, therefore it's true, to give it credence. But they're really just trying to help people live better lives

• 46:38Tom Bilyeu?

  to keep society cohesive. So yeah, it's pretty difficult to talk without referencing ideas that have been memorialized in the Bible. They will have withstood the test of time long before they got documented in the Bible. So anyway, that's my perspective on that.

• 46:55Speaker 07

  Zagros Oskin with a $50 super chat. Thank you Zagros.

• 46:58Speaker 02

  Thank you for the $50 super chat. We appreciate it.

• 47:00Tom Bilyeu?

  People coming in hot today.

• 47:02Speaker 07

  Says, Tom, you've made a lot of claims with such certainty about the chain of events that would unravel regarding nukes and their proliferation. Should Trump use them on Iranian sites? Lots of assumptions I think aren't quite justified. Much love.

• 47:13Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, so one thing that I was really dogged about telling people when we first started the show, and I maybe don't do enough anymore, is to understand the way that I think about this. So that I think in general, the way that I think in general is to plant a flag so that you understand your own thinking and then immediately update your thinking as you get new information. The odds that I'm wrong about a lot of things are very, very high. But the reality is the odds that everyone is wrong about a lot of things is very, very high. So it's not anything unique to me. The thing that may be unique to me is I don't value myself for being right. I value myself for constantly reorienting to new information, never getting stuck in dogma, never getting stuck in, well, I said that before

• 47:58Tom Bilyeu?

  and therefore I've got to remain constant with that. This is why I don't do debates. The second somebody gives me information that seems like it has higher utility in terms of predicting the future, I will take that on. Now, the reason that I'm not afraid to say, oh, this is what I think is whatever audience I'm able to build is going to be predicated not on, oh, he got everything right. It's going to be predicated on the way that he thinks through issues is useful in my own life. And the way that I think through issues is to seek disconfirming evidence, to never be afraid to say what I think and then go, okay, but I know some part of that is wrong. I surround myself with a team of rivals that will point out where they think I'm wrong. And if I think, oh, yeah, that actually is very useful, I will adopt that. And so the very reason to turn into the, tune into the show is to watch my thinking evolve.

• 48:43Tom Bilyeu?

  So to me, people that are dogmatic, they might build a bigger audience because they make you feel what you want to feel, but they will inevitably fall off. I like to think part of the reason that I've had the longevity that I've had, I've been at this now for 10 years. Part of the reason that I've had that longevity is I'm constantly updating my thinking. I'm moving from one thing to the next as I feel like, okay, I've explored that about as much as I can be useful on. And now it's like, cool, you've got that, like take mindset. If you guys want the mindset content, it's all there. But I've moved on now to economics, world affairs, so on and so forth. So yeah, anyway, that will be the thing that you guys will see me do. I am in no way saying, okay, I'm saying this with veracity

• 49:27Tom Bilyeu?

  because I think there's no way I could change my mind. I'm saying things with, what do they say, strong convictions loosely held. I'm always not only open to changing my mind, I'm interested in changing my mind because I want to be able to predict the future as much as possible, as accurately as possible.

• 49:43Speaker 07

  And that's it for super chats.

• 49:45Speaker 02

  Cool. All right, let's jump over to the hedge funds because they are milking the economy again and are going to cry too big to fail when it all goes to shit. So.

• 49:55Speaker 02

  I was expecting a bigger reaction from that.

• 49:56Tom Bilyeu?

  Wow. Truer words never spoken. I thought that was the beginning of you preaching through.

• 50:03Speaker 02

  Sounds like it.

• 50:03Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, so the economy is going through it right now and hedge funds are making a big move that could rattle the entire market. And that's all happening right as private credit defaults are setting bad records. Goldman Sachs's prime brokerage desk tracks what hedge funds actually do with their money. And the answer right now is not very pretty. From October 8th through October 14th, its clients net sold artificial intelligence stocks five sessions in a row. Those five days erased every dollar of net AI buying the funds had done since the start of 25. That's nearly two years of accumulation gone in a single week. And if you widen out

• 50:48Tom Bilyeu?

  to two weeks, they dumped roughly $20 billion in tech stocks. But here's the important part. They're not exactly betting against AI. I think there's actually something different going on here. I think this is much better understood as capital rotation and not as them just panicking and trying to eject out of AI. They weren't piling up a bunch of shorts against AI. Okay, they were actually selling what they already owned and doing so at about 3.5 times the pace that they added new shorts. So I don't think that this is people like, oh shit, bubbles pop, fuck these kids, they're about to drown. That's not what we're watching play out. On October 22, Goldman's basket of the most popular

• 51:30Tom Bilyeu?

  hedge fund holdings fell 4.2%. And that marked its worst day since 2011. So these guys know that there is a deflation of the bubble that's happening right now. And I think this is a good thing. I think we should want this. The sooner that we can get to something that approaches normalcy, the more controlled that is, more orderly this migration is, the better. Now, Morgan Stanley says gross exposure is down about 8% from the June peak, which is the largest pullback. It's in its data going back to 2016. They also said that funds are now underweight on the AI trade for the first time since early 2023. So this

• 52:11Tom Bilyeu?

  to me, again, you've got air being let out of the bubble. That's good. And we, when you drill into the data, what you're going to start seeing is that we're more and more people, more and more investors are moving out of the tech trade and into other companies in the S and P 500. So you're getting like this weird, we've had a bear market inside of a bull market. So we had a bear market with the non-tech stocks and we had a bull market with the tech stocks. Now we're seeing a rebalancing and I think that is very wise. Now, if you're not sure why I wanted to go through all of what's happening with the hedge funds, consider the reality that hedge funds run on borrowed money. And when they

• 52:56Tom Bilyeu?

  lose on a leveraged bet, the fund sells to get that risk back in line. And that has all kinds of knock on consequences throughout the entire market. So when they start selling, that pushes prices lower, which forces the next round to sell and so on. So this is what I hope will remain orderly, but this is what that orderly deflation of the AI bubble looks like. Now, the International Monetary Fund warned in October that this is how hedge funds flip from providing liquidity to amplifying stress. So this is how, despite my desire that this stay orderly, it could break loose. I don't have undue concerns

• 53:35Tom Bilyeu?

  about that. So far, things have been working as expected, but that chance is real. So when you've got gross leverage that's still sitting at near five-year highs, there are reasons to have question marks around all of this. And Goldman is looking at those near five-year highs and saying, there's going to be more selling likely in the near future. So we certainly aren't done. You can expect more of that. But if we zoom out a little bit more and look at private credit's role in all of this, this is where I actually start to get worried. This to me is the, I won't call it a black swan, because we've been talking about it for a while. But this is where I'm like, okay, if this thing is going to get disorderly, it's likely to come from private credit. Fitch Ratings reported

• 54:18Tom Bilyeu?

  on October 30th that the US private credit default rate hit 6.3% for the 12 months through September. That's not good. That's the highest quarterly reading on record and the fourth straight quarter it has risen. Okay, not ideal. I think that there is a lot of probably shaky to outright bad debt that's hiding in private credit that has likely been sold into pension funds and insurance funds. That is not what you want to see if this debt is going to go belly up. Now, there have been 91 defaulters over just one year. Now, most of those defaults weren't bankruptcies. That's good. But they were maturity extensions, interest deferrals, and borrowers trying to pay interest by taking

• 55:02Tom Bilyeu?

  on more debt. So this is not healthy. That is not what you want to see. When you look at it, no matter how you shake it or bake it, the loans are not being repaid. They're just kicking the can down the road. And this is why I'm still a little skeptical about overly rosy pictures about whether it's anthropic or just AI in general. There is still this looming threat from all of the debt that has found its way into the markets via private credit. So when you put it all together, you've got two leveraged corners of the system that are now deleveraging at the same time at a pretty rapid clip. Wall Street traders understand that they're going to be the ones that need to get out first.

• 55:44Tom Bilyeu?

  And so now it becomes a question for your everyday retail investor, what ends up happening to them as the prices come down? So how long will they be left holding the bag? So we will see. I'm not freaking out by any stretch of the imagination, but this is definitely something that people should be paying attention to. And the more you can understand your own exposure to private credit, the better. The more you can be defensively positioned, the better. I don't think people should be trying to ride the AI trade to the moon, but that is one person's opinion, man. That is not financial advice. You guys need to do your own research. You need to understand what is happening in your own mental model because you want to talk about something where I would change my opinion on a dime

• 56:26Tom Bilyeu?

  if I saw new information. And the last thing you want to be doing is writing something because I said it? Like, I'm paranoid in my own strategy. I am diversifying because I understand that to have perfect information in this market is impossible. And to even be going up against the guys that are doing this all day, every day, you would have to be doing it all day, every day. And I for one am not. So I think you guys need to be looking at where your money is, build a mental model of where you think the future goes. And if you think you understand it perfectly, by all means, do big bets. I advise against it.

• 57:00Speaker 02

  The markets have opened actually green. Stocks jump as oil prices tumble before midterms, tech stocks rebound. A lot of people, they are calling it just like a sell-off and now people are buying it quote unquote on discount. We saw Bitcoin is still slightly down. I would say down 1%, but still pretty much flat. Has this recent news, whether it's the, I won't say the AI bubble pop, but the AI bubble deflation?

• 57:24Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah.

• 57:26Speaker 02

  Has any of that changed your grand five, 10-year plans with how you're investing your money, where you see the economy going or anything like that?

• 57:33Tom Bilyeu?

  Because I'm invested so largely out of paranoia that I don't see something coming, that I can't predict the future, that no, every time I think about where am I going to go, the only thing that looms in the background is I would love to have more physical gold, physical gold, not paper gold. But I am paranoid about whether it's government seizures, I'm not going to store it personally for reasons that I trust are beyond obvious. So now I'm going to have to trust somebody to hold my gold. So that's the one place where I sort of hem and haw. But it's not like I have some intention to put a massive amount into gold. I don't. I'm just trying to be as diversified as I can, meaning that I'm

• 58:14Tom Bilyeu?

  exposed to different economic forces. And so when I look at my returns over the last couple of years, they've been dizzying. And that actually makes me nervous. And so I'm actually trying to rebalance away from some of that. I'm not like overly indexed on tech already, but would still like to get some of those secondary things, which are probably still exposed to tech more than I would like, and smooth some of that out. I'm heavy into treasuries right now, all short term, because I'm super paranoid about the government's accumulation of debt for obvious reasons. So there, because I'm already like, I can't

• 58:56Tom Bilyeu?

  see the future. I'm super paranoid. I know I can't sit in cash. So it's like, I don't know where else to go.

• 59:02Speaker 02

  Yeah. It's interesting too, because like we talked about this on Friday, there's usually like this pendulum swing of capital. Raul Paul calls it like follow the liquidity. Where is it going? What markets are they investing in, things like that?

• 59:14Tom Bilyeu?

  And even that, just one thing to say about that. Follow the liquidity, yes, but to ride the ride. The very thing I'm trying not to do is ride the ride. So I get that I'm going to give up upside because I'm trying to hedge against a bunch of downside. So when you're following the liquidity, it's very good advice and you will hear me talk about that. But that's more from where I'm sitting to understand the market, to know why it's moving in the way that it's moving, to take higher risk dollars and say, well, these are my high-risk dollars. So where do I want to put them? I want to put them where the liquidity is going, because that means that the valuations are going to go up because you have more dollars chasing the same goods. And so that's what makes price go up. So from that perspective, he's just talking mechanistically, what do you

• 59:57Tom Bilyeu?

  have to pay attention to? But when you think that the money follows a narrative, then it's like, whoo, now you've got to start thinking about when's the money going to shift? When does the regime change? When does people's attitudes begin to change? That you're starting to see in AI. You need to look no further than what's happening to what are people loaning to? Before, it was like dot com. If you had dot com on the end of your name in 98, 99, then people were giving you a ton of money. If you have AI in the title now, people are giving you a ton of money until recently. Now, even on the big boys, they're starting to pull back because those guys are burning through so much their free cash flow and their growth is beginning to stall because AI is just

• 1:00:39Tom Bilyeu?

  fundamentally changing the nature of how people interact online. And that is going to damage business models. Now, I think that their, Google, for instance, is very smart. Disrupt yourself before somebody else does it. You're not going to be able to stem the title of AI, so you might as well get involved. But dude is starting to hurt their ad revenue. Like, I don't even, I don't know about you. I almost don't go to search engines. Of anything even remotely like a search, I would say 99% at least of what I do online is just ask AI and it gives me the answer and I move on. It almost never sends me to a website. I have this growing sense of websites being a danger zone. And so it's like, I don't want to click links. Like, I don't know who's been hacked. So.

• 1:01:24Tom Bilyeu?

  On that side, I would just much rather get the instructions from the AI, get the summation, what are people saying about XYZ? I'm not going to the site itself. And so I like to play a game as an entrepreneur called, what if my behavior were universal? And then you get a picture of if everyone is like me, search is going to fall off of a cliff. Ad revenue is going to fall off of a cliff. It is going to be very, very different. The revenues are going to go to very different people. And so, yeah, that the world in the future does not look like the world in the past.

• 1:01:59Speaker 02

  Yeah. And to your point that the market is now reacting differently to AI. OpenAI has just slashed their funding target. So, yeah, it seems like that IPO might not be as promising as they once thought.

• 1:02:09Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, listen, these guys understand that people are not giving the money that they once did. They understand that AI is having a surprise impact on the internet as a whole. And when, if you're OpenAI, you're going to realize that you're forced to reduce your goals. So when they did their most recent funding round, it was like, yeah, obviously that was going to have to come down. Why? Because look at sites like Reddit. They've lost like some ungodly amount of their traffic from Google. Not all of it, obviously, but in October, the site was down more than a million search referrals a week. Their own chief executive, Steve Huffman, told investors the causes Google's AI overviews and AI mode.

• 1:02:53Tom Bilyeu?

  In his words, AI mode doesn't drive traffic to anyone. So now let's say that you're OpenAI and you're backed by the big boys. And you know that those guys, their own revenue is getting hammered. And so now everybody is getting tighter with the money that they're going to pump into this because nobody is certain how this is all going to play out. So when you've got Reddit warning its 130 million daily users could fall by double digits next quarter, then everybody watching the stock market is like, okay, Reddit's drop of 29% in a day. By the way, it's worst day since going public is a harbinger of things to come

• 1:03:36Tom Bilyeu?

  for a lot more people than just Reddit. It's actually going to impact Google. It's going to impact Microsoft. All of the big boys are going to have to figure out how they make money in the future. And given that these are the cash cows that the AI companies were expecting to be able to raise the debt to build up all of the infrastructure that they were going to need to justify the amount of money that they were supposedly going to get from people in terms of consumers actually paying for this thing. It starts to paint a picture of maybe there are more question marks on this than we all thought. So when you look at Google, man, that trade is not winning right now. Alphabet reported third quarter results on October 28th. Search revenue grew by 12%. You would think that would be amazing, but it's slowing down.

• 1:04:20Tom Bilyeu?

  So two quarters ago, it was growing 19%. So Google's business is now trending in the wrong direction. And Google's own chief business officer said, one reason is lower monetization in, you guessed it, AI mode. The world is just changing, man. Right now, the markets, the magnificent seven are all predicated on a traditional way of interfacing with the internet. And AI is radically altering that. You're going to talk to your coffee pot about what, like coffee pods to buy and when? You're not going to go to that website. And so whoever can convince that coffee pot to recommend their pods, they're on lock. And everybody else is a question mark.

• 1:05:05Tom Bilyeu?

  And you're not going to be able to beat it with SEO, which is traditionally how this has been. Now, AI has its own SEO mode, so people will, I'm sure, go sicko mode there. But we'll see how controllable that gets or if that becomes a pay to play game. All of that is undecided right now. But search queries are growing at the fastest rate in five years. But the money isn't keeping up because people are just going for the AI answer, man. So, yeah, this is, this is all going to change everything. And while this is all happening, capital spending more than doubled to $51 billion in one quarter. So these guys who are previously free cash flow, just like monsters,

• 1:05:48Tom Bilyeu?

  now are ringing in at a negative $9 billion in free cash flow. Bro, that, that is a bloodbath. And that's the second negative quarter in a row. And Wall Street took $500 billion off of Alphabet's market cap as their reward. So they're looking at this going, hey, listen, we bought into the whole AI thing when you guys had all the cash in the universe to pay for this. Now that we're seeing that that's slowing down, not so sure. So they took their largest one day loss of value in the company's history. But that's Alphabet. That's like the biggest of the big. So it is a new era. So we'll see what happens. One day after all of that, the Financial Times reported OpenAI obviously cut its funding round.

• 1:06:31Tom Bilyeu?

  And so now people are like, man, if you drop from trying to raise 30 billion to 20 billion, what does that say? Is that just a straight up acknowledgement that the Middle East, which is on fire, is now saying, yeah, we're, we're not going to be spending as much money on that. So remember, the oil dollars in the Middle East were basically being funneled directly into the AI bet in the United States.

• 1:06:56Tom Bilyeu?

  And now we're in a totally different universe. So it is the Wild West in the Middle East right now. And so the fact that you've got AI damaging the investment strategy on AI. So it's own thing. It's good. And in the long run, we're all going to win, but it's going to take us into that. It's likely to take us into that trough of despair where for a while, everybody pulls back, but the commitments to spending keep going. The interest on all of the debt that they've accumulated keeps going. And historically speaking, the revenue doesn't come in fast enough. And investors can smell the distress. They're loaning less money.

• 1:07:40Tom Bilyeu?

  They're being far more stringent. There's going to be a knock on, we were just talking about all the selling that's going on. Hedge funds are moving away from the riskier tech bets. They're rotating, this is the good news. They're rotating into treasuries and into other non-tech stocks. So it's not like they're panicking and going out and burying their money in the backyard. But they are rebalancing away from tech. All of that is going to make it harder for tech to thrive, at least for some period of time till the money starts coming in. So we'll see if there's a mismatch.

• 1:08:13Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's, it's very interesting because going back to Patrick Rice in Super Chat, it seems like Anthropic started off as number three. Google, OpenAI had them at first. It seems like they've been steadily growing and maintaining the ship. OpenAI has lost the most amount of market share and has been kind of exposed to the market, like the market.

• 1:08:33Tom Bilyeu?

  Volatility.

• 1:08:33Speaker 02

  Yeah, volatility the most. So I'm not necessarily sure if they'll like actually survive. You know what I mean? Because just like with all social media and tech companies, stuff like that, there's eventually going to be the consolidation. So if I'm Anthropic, I'm like, yeah, OpenAI, stop playing, come to the money team. Like I'm already hiring, half your engineers already work here. Sam Altman is going to vitally disagree. The whole board, everybody else will be like, hey, man, I'll take the money. We could just be the big two and drop out. Like, everybody wants to be the Google. I don't think anybody wants to be the bank of OpenAI. So I think eventually somebody's going to have to put in their, put in the, the offer sheet. But I don't know, it's interesting to see how everything is playing out from this leapfrog of who's number one, who's number two, who's number three, and the market quietly dictating those terms. Because we know that Google's going to be good.

• 1:09:18Speaker 02

  Amazon's going to be good. Meta is going to be good, even if Mark Zuckerberg's delusional. It's really OpenAI and Anthropic and Anthropic right now with the amount of regulatory capture or at least willingness from politicians to look the other way when it comes to them versus OpenAI, which I think is getting a bit more scrutiny. It's only a matter of time before at least something happens, some type of shakeup.

• 1:09:38Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, I would have less confidence that OpenAI is going to disappear. They're one product innovation away. Because I don't, I think people look at AI as a commodity. And I use Claude right now, but if OpenAI came out with something that was substantively better, I would switch immediately. In the background, and I don't know how much credence to give this, but Jan LeCoon, who was at Meta, left Meta, started his own company. He's been saying for a while that this whole LLM thing is not going to work. It is going to asymptote. You guys are going to be left holding the bag. There's gotta be, not gotta be, there is a better way. Now, he's saying that they've recently made some breakthroughs.

• 1:10:17Tom Bilyeu?

  And that basically the reason that LLMs are so expensive to train and take so long is because they basically just try to brute force the learning. And they try to show the AI so many of the patterns over and over and over and over and over that they finally get an accurate representation of what the world is. But he said, there's a better way to do that. And you show them the same thing from two different angles. And that if you show them the same thing, like take a cat as an image and as a description, and you show it to them at the same time, now it learns much cheaper and faster. And they are claiming that on far fewer parameters, they can deliver better results. Now, I'll believe it when I see it.

• 1:10:58Tom Bilyeu?

  But I say all of that because if they come out with something that's better, I will immediately switch. I have no allegiance to any of these companies, which means if somebody has a technological breakthrough in, and I will remind everybody, this technology is still so early that there are likely to be major breakthroughs on the horizon. That the second somebody does something better, everybody will switch. There's, it's too important to have access to the best intelligence around that to think that this is anything other than a race to see who can deliver the most like high utility to me as the user to, you know, everybody's saying that same thing, like they, they would

• 1:11:38Tom Bilyeu?

  be fools. And so this reminds me back when we had all of the different search engines and then Google came along and just cleaned house because they were better than everybody else. And by being better than everybody else, there was just a suction sound of the entire world going over to Google, but it was just on the back of being better. And then they built the network effects that were impossible to beat. But I don't think that you have the same need for network effects in AI. This is why open models are likely to thrive. You don't need a ton of people using your version of AI. In fact, you want your version of AI to be your proprietary version and that only you can get the specific

• 1:12:21Tom Bilyeu?

  outputs from your setup. And so there's going to be a very different reaction to all of this stuff where people are going to want to use an open source model. And if you've got a ton of people using open source models, then you begin hollowing out the big boys and you make them less relevant. Now, if they can keep the frontier edge important enough, at least for the biggest consumers, then they may be able to push on and they have a mode of just being able to train these gigantor models. But if someone like Yan Lacun proves that's not necessary and that's not where the alpha is, then we may see a totally different race. So I think it's way too early to call this one.

• 1:13:01Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's interesting. It's one of those we have to wait and see unfortunately, but if you let Ed Zitron tell it, the AI bubble is just, it's about to pop, it's about to pop, the world's about to end.

• 1:13:10Tom Bilyeu?

  Well, listen, Ed, Ed is on to something and it's very good to have voices like Ed Zitron in the mix that are pointing out, you cannot ignore the circular financing, you cannot ignore all of the debt, you can't ignore that these cash cows now are bringing in revenue at a slower pace, you can't ignore that people are willing to loan less and less money and that these guys are having a harder and harder time raising, you can't ignore how much it costs to be at the bleeding edge, you can't ignore how much energy is going to be required, that you are almost certainly going to hit a wall in 2027. There's nobody saying that like, we aren't going to have energy problems, meaning that you've got that whole Amazon, it was discovered that they have warehouses full of GPUs and

• 1:13:53Tom Bilyeu?

  the reason that they're doing that is they can't bring on the data centers fast enough because of energy. So there are a lot of headwinds. This is why we should want to see the bubble deflating in a controlled manner now before it becomes a massive crisis. And so at least it seems like people are responding somewhat sensibly right now. We'll see if it's fast enough. We'll see if there are like very hidden troubling debt bombs already so deep into the private market, sorry, the public markets that we have a problem coming that is just too late to avoid. But right now I'm encouraged to see things slowing down.

• 1:14:35Speaker 02

  Yeah. All right. We gotta jump internationally now because Poland is on fire. We already said we not talking about France being on fire because that's just a Tuesday for them. So let's talk about Poland because this is a new fire.

• 1:14:45Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah. So Poland is, I don't think Poland is burning yet. Switzerland though is, is on fire, which is wild. That's the one that I was alluding to earlier. Nobody saw Switzerland coming. But if you look at what's going on in Poland, this is getting pretty weird. Poland's highest court is the Constitutional Tribunal. They have 15 judges. Its job is to decide whether laws are constitutional or not. Okay. Nice and simple. Control the tribunal and you can block the other side's laws. Okay. So this ultimately is a basically left and right battle that would not be unfamiliar to anybody paying attention to what's going on in the US here. So keep that in mind. But because they have, within one government,

• 1:15:29Tom Bilyeu?

  they have two different roles that can fight for power, it gets a little bit weirder. Now, both of the major camps in Poland know that if you control the tribunal, that you can block the other side. So they're fighting over the tribunal and they've been fighting over it for 11 years. Okay. One of the things that's hard to track in all of this is who are the players? So here's your cast of characters. You've got Donald Tusk, he's the prime minister. Remember I said there's two roles. You've got the prime minister and you've got the president. So Donald Tusk is the prime minister. He runs a pro EU coalition government. So you can think of him as the guy on the left. Then you've got Carol Nowrocki. Okay. He's the president and he's backed by the Law and Justice Party. So you can think of him

• 1:16:12Tom Bilyeu?

  as the right. He's the nationalist conservative. His party ran Poland from 2015 to 2023, but they're now the opposition. Okay. So you've got Tusk versus Nowrocki, you've got the left versus the right, the left is in power, the right was in power, but they're now the opposition. Poland's president has the ability to veto and a role in like swearing in judges. So if the prime minister says, okay, here are our new judges, the president can refuse to swear them in and you can stall that process out. And that is exactly what's happening. So you've got Tusk who writes the laws, Nowrocki can block them or give them the stamp that

• 1:16:56Tom Bilyeu?

  they need to go through. And the tribunal, the court that should referee is itself right now, the very thing that they're fighting over. So both sides are saying, hey, I'm handling this the right way. No, I'm handling this the right way. And now they're fighting over the judges in a way that Americans should be looking at because it was all about packing the court. So you've got one side, I believe it was the people on the right packed the court when they were last in power. So now there's this whole fight over, were all the judges that they put in place legit or not? And forgive me if I have that backwards, but that's what the fight is over. All right. It started back in 2015. So Tusk's party was leaving power. Okay. So it was the left. The left was the party leaving power. They

• 1:17:39Tom Bilyeu?

  picked five judges on their way out and the tribunal later ruled that only three of those picks were valid. Okay. So three, yes, everybody agrees, but you've got two more that are supposedly a problem. So the people on the right, when they took office, they ignored that and installed their own people in all five seats. The then president Duda refused to swear in the three valid judges. So now that's the problem because nobody was arguing that, but he still didn't swear them in. Over the next eight years, the right reshaped the courts. In December of 25, the European Union's top court ruled the tribunal no longer qualified as an independent court. Uh oh. So now everybody's saying, okay, this isn't even a legitimate court anymore. So you can understand why there's so much fighting.

• 1:18:25Tom Bilyeu?

  Tusk returns in 2023, promising him, I'm going to clean this mess up. This year, their parliament elected eight new judges. Now Rocky swore in three, but he refused the other five. The Council of Europe's Constitutional Advisors say the president's role here is ceremonial and he should just be swearing them in, that he has no power to review parliament's picks. The five took their oaths in front of parliament instead. So it's supposed to be done by the president, but instead parliament did it, Tusk, basically ignoring the way that this is supposed to be set up. And the tribunal's chief, a law and justice appointee, so a guy on the right, would not let them sit. So now you're in deadlock between the

• 1:19:06Tom Bilyeu?

  left and the right. On October 30th, the government side broke in, literally broke in to the tribunal where the judges are. One judge announced that she was suspending the tribunal chief and his deputy for a month and was taking over herself. Now her authority to do that is completely disputed. People are saying she has no right to do that. The justice minister, who is also the chief prosecutor, began moving towards criminal charges against both men. Riot police cordoned off the building. Now Rocky, who was on his way to Senegal, ends up turning his plane around, coming back, pushing past the judges, barging in to get inside and to basically forcibly take over the constitutional body.

• 1:19:50Tom Bilyeu?

  So it's just absolute mayhem. Tusk on the left went on television the next day and said there would be no compromise. So the problem is that both sides have a case that the other side is overstepping the bounds and that it's been decided for whatever it's worth by a European court impartial supposedly, that the Polish court had been captured, that it was no longer an independent body. And you've got a president who sits on judicial oaths, which is basically creating a veto of sorts that he doesn't have the constitutional power to do, but the fix is a judge of questionable standing, suspending the court chief prosecutors

• 1:20:31Tom Bilyeu?

  are circling and you've got police at the door and it's just like all kinds of mayhem. So we'll see where this ends up going, where this ends up settling out. But I had no idea that these guys were right on the edge of a constitutional crisis. I thought that they, I actually did a speaking event remote, I remoted in, but to a bunch of people in Poland and was like, oh, everything seems to be going great. So had no idea that they were teetering on the brink of this. So we will see what comes of it. But man, I'm telling you, more and more, Europe is a preview of what populism run amok looks like and everybody in the US should be paying attention because this is exactly what we need to avoid. And you avoid this by finding your way back to the middle. But if you just think there's no way to compromise, these guys are an existential threat, we've got to pack the

• 1:21:16Tom Bilyeu?

  court, we've got to do all this shit, we've got to legally pursue our opponents, you only get madness. You only get madness. And I understand people want that law and order, they want that quote unquote justice, but you've got to give a wide berth in times of populism or you end up here.

• 1:21:33Speaker 02

  It seems like this happening everywhere too. Like we're getting to the same type of conflicts, independent of where we are. I thought it was Americans being Americans, but now we're seeing Europeans do it. I thought it was, okay, this is just France do it. They had that history, but now we're seeing it in Poland, we're seeing it in Switzerland, we're seeing it in, like, it just seems like everybody has this group thing, making the same decisions at the same time.

• 1:21:51Tom Bilyeu?

  Yes, this, this is largely a.

• 1:21:56Tom Bilyeu?

  Global in as much as the West is a global phenomenon, but of the global West, you have this same battle raging at different volumes all over the place. It is the same thing happening in France. It's the same thing happening in Germany. It's the same thing happening in the UK. It's the same thing happening in the US. It's, it's really one in the same fight. It is populist left versus populist right. They both think the other side is a true existential threat. And that means anything is fair and love and war. And so they are weaponizing the judicial system against each other. They are doing things like the decoy Dan thing in Alaska.

• 1:22:39Tom Bilyeu?

  You've just got all kinds of madness, not to mention the money in politics. It's, it is a wild time and we need politicians that can march from the front, talk at the policy level about here are the policies that we need to change that are going to be better for Americans. So for instance, you want, you think you want a single payer healthcare system. In reality, what you should want, because it will actually drive costs down, is you want to get the government the fuck out of all of this madness. So right now you've got the government basically putting so many regulations into the world of healthcare that you're now getting the worst of all worlds,

• 1:23:20Tom Bilyeu?

  where you have, you don't have the single payer ability to negotiate terms, but you have no transparency so that these companies can charge an absolute fortune. And they do. So if we were to say the policy here needs to be that everybody needs to publish their prices transparently, everybody needs to understand exactly what something costs so that these guys can begin competing on service and price. And you don't have a situation where we have one price if you're insured and another price if you're not insured, like all of that is ridiculous. Now you do need to solve that problem. It is a ridiculous problem. It is not a free market that's happening there. And the solution, at least they're putting something forward

• 1:24:04Tom Bilyeu?

  because the current thing is such a fucking mess. We have to do something, but the solution that they're putting forward is retarded. So now getting a politician that can say, hey, guys, I get it. I understand what you want. And by the way, if you want to have an option for the government to pick up the tab on healthcare, cool. Here are some things we would have to do. Balance the budget. And if you make life choices that are absolutely ridiculous and make you unbelievably expensive, you're going to pay more. All of this stuff is doable, but we've got to get realistic about what the trade offs are. And right now we don't have any politicians talking trade offs. We only have politicians that are talking about, I'm going to give you more free shit to get elected. That is left and right. So yeah, wild times are upon us.

• 1:24:49Speaker 02

  Somebody in the chat asks, has the, is there a healthcare model that you like, would like to see us move to or like a country or something that you would like?

• 1:24:55Tom Bilyeu?

  What I just laid out, there is no country that has good healthcare that I'm aware of. So you have free-ish healthcare. Remember, nobody gets free healthcare. Everybody gets paid to work. And if everybody gets paid, that means somebody is paying. That means that it's all coming from taxes. So the idea that this is free is a joke. Because I'm married to a Brit, I'm way too close to what actually happens in the UK. So I have a front row seat to what that looks like. And that is very much ridiculous weight times. People that I know and love basically being sent home for their appendix to burst because you're just not getting the quality of care that you need to get. And so of course you end up going private. So yeah, all of that stuff is a mess.

• 1:25:40Tom Bilyeu?

  What you have to get to, you want the free market involved. You want just enough regulation that these guys don't create a monopoly. You want to put things that allow the free market to work well. So transparency of prices, not letting there be whatever. Mark Cuban talks about this so eloquently, and I don't know the players well enough, but you've got the like middlemen in the benefits process that are causing like this massive problem. And his whole thing is transparency of pricing. That'll make sense to me. I'll let him speak to the details on that. But if you start doing things like that where people can actually see what the costs of this stuff are and you're paying $400 for a Band-Aid, it's like, that's where all of this stuff gets stupid beyond like being consumable. So we do have a problem. It has to be solved.

• 1:26:23Tom Bilyeu?

  The model is nothing that you're going to see going on in Europe. You need companies that have enough regulation that they can't abuse you, but that are innovating, driving costs down, making services better. And they have to impress you, the customer, in order to win. And right now they're not in that position. They don't have to impress you. You don't even know what the fuck they're charging. So yeah, it's stupid.

• 1:26:47Speaker 02

  Yeah. That reminds me of this graph we saw on X that says the, we're at the highest share of not feeling hopeful about their finances. So this chart shows the share of Americans who expect their financial situation to be worse in a year is at a record high, almost 40% of Americans. This is not promising for the economy, especially the day before election day.

• 1:27:07Tom Bilyeu?

  So. Yeah. And this is also a one-two punch. So this is partly real, for sure, for sure. And then partly psychological. And when you see, and we, we're going to do a whole deep dive on this later today. When you see the way that Gen Z talks about jobs, it's a problem that they didn't start, but they are making worse for themselves. And so to understand what's really going on in the job market, you got to give the devil its due. Gen Z has a rough go of it. There are real headwinds that suck that these guys have to deal with. And then also from just an attitude shift perspective, EGADs,

• 1:27:50Tom Bilyeu?

  the way that they are approaching their careers is horrific. It is, it's MPC tier.

• 1:27:59Speaker 02

  Okay, we have to jump over to Palm Beach, Florida. Cause this Lear jet crash is like ridiculous. I'm not gonna lie, I'm at the headline level. Once I seen the plane blew up, I was like, I get it. Like, I don't need to deep dive anymore into it.

• 1:28:12Tom Bilyeu?

  Unfortunately, this one is going, I expect, if you dive deep on it right now, you will see it's already happening in terms of the conversation that's going on. I'll be interested to see if this catches fire culturally because there is a cultural read on this that is going to get interesting. I will say that. Okay, so I have done a distressing amount of research. This just happened, so please know that more information is going to come out about this over time. But for those of you that don't know, there was a horrific crash in Florida.

• 1:28:52Tom Bilyeu?

  A Lear jet fell from the sky like a lawn dart and exploded on the street, killing nine people onboard instantly, man. And for better or worse, there are so many cameras now on cars that we've got footage. If you watch it frame by frame, you watch this plane just implode on impact. It is crazy. Now we're gonna be, Drew hopefully has this all queued up because there are links that I gave you where people are mapping out what the plane is doing in coordination with the pilot talking. This, this is chilling. This is one of those things, if you've got kids, it's not something that you need in their head.

• 1:29:35Tom Bilyeu?

  So drop them off at school, boot them out of the car, wherever they're at. Like this is not one that, that you need. Oh God, if you're looking at your screens right now, you can see the freeze frame of the plane making contact with the ground. It is wild. So they were flying from Austin to the Bahamas. There was a storm. Is this the bill? Yes. Okay, so click the show more. So here we go. This is from Bill Ackman. He said, from a pilot I trust. It is too early to tell all of the factors that played a role, but likely complacency and inexperience. From the ATC audio tape and radar, see below, I would say inexperienced pilot or pilots and obviously weather. They likely flew into the storm and iced up. And so this is something I've heard now from more and more people

• 1:30:19Tom Bilyeu?

  that are seeing the trajectory of the plane and what happened. So the Lear, the type of jet that crashed, has a very critical wing, meaning that when you get to a certain speed, there is, or a certain set of conditions. So if there's like ice on the wing or you're at a certain elevation, there's a very narrow band of speed that you can be at. You go too slow and it's like the turbulence hits you too hard. You go too fast and you lose the ability to control the wing. So it's like now where you normally have much more latitude, it gets crushed. Okay, so the Lear has a very critical wing. And if they iced up in the thin air at altitude, they likely experienced a power on stall, which can result in an upset

• 1:31:02Tom Bilyeu?

  and/or snap roll. As they asked to climb, because you'll hear that when we play the audio, we know they were likely at a very high power setting. Investigation should prove more insight as to whether they had the radar on or not and the training records as well as experience levels of the crew. Bad news punchline is at least one of the pilots was very young. And so that's going to play into the cultural reaction here. Again, we'll get to that in a minute. Training records as experience levels of the crew and any difficulty they may have had over the years with training. Meaning, do we see this person struggle and make bad decisions in this kind of setup as they've gone through all of their training?

• 1:31:46Tom Bilyeu?

  They will also rebuild their days before the flight, looking at any causal factors like fatigue. This should not have happened. I have a video of the impact and the plane appears to be intact just before impact. And yes, all the reports that I've seen say that the plane was completely intact at the moment of impact. So that wasn't the problem. We absolutely, he's now speaking as a pilot. We absolutely would not cross a line of storms like that. There's an image included while descending into them. Okay, so what this looks like is you've got a person who doesn't go around a storm and instead goes into the storm, then tries to climb above the storm and something possibly icing on the wings.

• 1:32:29Tom Bilyeu?

  Cause they did report that they had icing, but they called it manageable and causing this narrowing of the, like their ability to, the narrowing of the speed window in which they can control the plane. And then something pushed them over the edge of that. Their speed began picking up. The wing hit a point at which they were no longer able to get lift. And they were moving so fast that for whatever reason, and this is where I don't understand aviation well enough to explain it, but I've read multiple reports that there comes a point where you're traveling so fast that as you try to pull back to actually pick the nose up, your bank speeds up. And so you end up banking faster and faster, going down towards the ground, the more you try to pull up. Okay, with all of that, here we go.

• 1:33:14Tom Bilyeu?

  We're going to be playing the audio, not necessarily in sync because you only have so much footage of the crash. But here we go with the audio.

• 1:33:24Speaker 05

  Mayday, mayday, we're descending 10,000 feet per minute.

• 1:33:27Speaker 07

  November 722 Bravo Delta, Roger.

• 1:33:31Speaker 05

  Declare emergency 722 Bravo Delta, we are in an overfeed condition, descending 20,000 feet per minute.

• 1:33:38Speaker 07

  November 722 Bravo Delta, Roger, out. Excuse your distress, let me know what you need.

• 1:33:45Speaker 03

  Something just fell down.

• 1:33:49Speaker 05

  We're gonna crash into the ground, 722 Bravo Delta.

• 1:33:53Speaker 07

  November 2 Bravo Delta, I'm here with you, talk to me.

• 1:33:56Speaker 05

  We are descending 22,000 feet and we are banking 60 degrees.

• 1:34:07Speaker 07

  November 2 Bravo Delta, Roger.

• 1:34:12Speaker 05

  Look outside, Jack, look outside. Holy fuck, we're at a 10.

• 1:34:19Tom Bilyeu?

  That's so brutal, man.

• 1:34:21Speaker 02

  Well.

• 1:34:22Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, it uh, there's something uniquely terrifying about plane crashes because you have so much time to realize that you're in trouble. It's like with a car crash, you, a couple of seconds is about all you get and then it's, it happens and it is what it is. But with a plane crash, like you've got minutes, man. There are some, um, people did like remakes. I know you were playing one of them, but they've done like remakes that show the bank and like, so they're flying through the storm, they try to raise, can't, and then they just start like falling like a rock. Uh, and then as she tries to pull up, it starts banking and then they're just a lawn dart. And there've been, uh, other pilots that I've seen coming on and saying, yeah, the way that these planes work, like if you're, if you start going too fast,

• 1:35:07Tom Bilyeu?

  that you, there, it's physically impossible to pull out of it, like it's unrecoverable. Now, I don't know if there was an extended period of time where she could have recovered and was unable to because she didn't know what she was doing. Or if going into the storm itself was, uh, the fatal flaw and there was no way to recover. Once you go into the storm, that I don't know. We'll see in the fullness of time. Now here is what's beginning to come out. So there, this, um, pilot, for better or worse.

• 1:35:37Speaker 02

  Co-pilot. I've liked that we're missing that part.

• 1:35:41Tom Bilyeu?

  Very great point. Now, I don't know if, uh, she has anything to do with it in terms of the final analysis of what happened. But where the reaction is going online, and I want to be very careful here, is that she was extremely young. And that basically now everybody's quarterbacking and saying, bro, if I walk into my plane and I see that there's a pilot who's like 23 years old or 21 years old or whatever, because she got her pilot's license in high school. And there was like this coverage done that was like, oh, she's so young and like, isn't that cool? And now that she's the voice that you hear, people are saying that this is like inexperience and they never should have gotten in a plane with her.

• 1:36:26Tom Bilyeu?

  And then of course, there are other comments about, uh, it being a young woman specifically. So we'll have to see what comes of this. Like the pilot was saying, they'll do a rebuild of the days leading up to this. But her youth and inexperience, if she had anything to do with the decision to fly, uh, into the storm is going to be a big part of the story.

• 1:36:52Speaker 02

  Uh, I mean, hearing in the chat, she was the co-pilot, that's why she was on the radio, the pilot has a control. So it was, I'm seeing his name is Jack.

• 1:36:58Tom Bilyeu?

  That certainly makes a lot of sense.

• 1:37:00Speaker 02

  Jack would be the one that was actually behind the wheel, making, yeah, making the decisions there. So, um, yeah, it's, it's tragic. Nine people are confirmed dead, uh, and it sucks. So I was just about to start getting my pilot's license. So I gotta let that, I gotta let this cool down a little bit before I bring this conversation back up.

• 1:37:15Tom Bilyeu?

  Here's the thing, if you're gonna get a pilot's license, spend a lot of time in the simulations, a lot, a lot, a lot, a lot, a lot.

• 1:37:23Speaker 02

  Sheesh. Um, all right, thoughts and prayers. Uh, anybody connected to that, that is.

• 1:37:28Tom Bilyeu?

  Fucking, they're toast of cheese.

• 1:37:29Speaker 02

  Hey, then, and there are nine families grieving right now. So to those families, we hug you.

• 1:37:35Tom Bilyeu?

  Here's the thing, if you had to go, it would not be a fun couple of minutes leading up to it, that is for sure. But there's, your brain would not be able to process that.

• 1:37:46Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's instant. Yeah, it's over.

• 1:37:48Tom Bilyeu?

  There, you just, it, it's great, literally. So if you look at the frames of the video hitting from one frame, so a frame in video is one, uh, essentially one 30th of a second. And so from one frame to the next, it's like, it takes maybe two frames for the plane to be completely gone. So it's like 1/15th of a second and it's just nothing, none of it exists. It's so crazy. It would just be lights out. Ah, so wild. Wow. So wild. What a reminder of all of our mortality.

• 1:38:22Speaker 02

  Um, two major changes coming to Claude mile, uh, Claude models. The first one is being text watermarking. And these texts are only supposed to be seen by regulators, other fact checkers, journalists, things that it won't be visible. It's not gonna be visible, characteristics, visible written, but people who are auditing these models, it would be able to see it. Um, that is a positive. And the other thing for fellow game designers, Claude code is banning reverse engineering of video games. So.

• 1:38:48Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, that, that'll buy some time. The reality is ultimately this is all gonna go open source and one day the models that now seem super gangster are gonna be like the super basic off the shelf thing. Um, so, uh, nobody in the game design space should be taking too much solace in that. Uh, it might buy you six months, uh, but it's probably not gonna buy you much more than that. So we'll see what ends up happening there. But, um, on the, the watermark thing, this is interesting. It's one of those where at first it's like, oh, that's kind of interesting. People are gonna be able to see if certain people will be able to see that this was something that was generated by AI. So for teachers, shout out, right?

• 1:39:29Tom Bilyeu?

  Uh, you didn't write this, this was all AI all the time. This is not you understanding the argument and then making it, this is you just copying, pasting from AI. Cool. I get why, um, teachers would have beef with this. Where I start to go, uh-oh, is where, what do you mean this is going to regulators? Why is this going to regulators? And so does this just become another vehicle for the government to look at everything that you're doing? Because now, like when I think about myself, how many conversations I have with AI, uh, are they going to scan everything? It, it becomes a question of where are they doing the ingesting of this information? If they're only able to ingest information that I put out in the public, okay, whatever, I put it out in the public.

• 1:40:14Tom Bilyeu?

  If they're doing the ingestion of the information at the anthropic server levels, that becomes way more problematic. Now, I think the way that it works is like, sort of, um, they give a key to the people. So the regulators would be able to go, okay, I see this public text, I'm gonna drop it in here, I'm gonna be able to see if it's done with AI or not. So my hope is that this is all sensible, it can all only be done on things that are public facing. But the fact that they're going out of their way to give regulators a key for text and not doing something to say this video either was or wasn't AI, which is the real thing I think we need to do,

• 1:40:55Tom Bilyeu?

  that becomes far more problematic. Cause I'm not super worried about what, if, other than students, I'm not worried about whether somebody used AI, I'm assuming they used AI. What I'm worried about is, is something that somebody represents as truth, like this thing actually happened, is that video AI? So it seems out of order for them to be so focused on what's going on at the text level, if we're not just talking education, and not worried about what's going on at the video level, which is the most unhinged part of AI right now, is you can make very compelling fakes where I'm like, okay, hold on, in context, it seems impossible, but it looks so real.

• 1:41:33Tom Bilyeu?

  I've just been eternally shocked by the fact that there's not Insta like AI stamps on video. So that's the one that to me is like, there's something weird here.

• 1:41:45Speaker 02

  That's crazy. Um, you wanna set up the, uh, request?

• 1:41:49Tom Bilyeu?

  I do, indeed.

• 1:41:50Speaker 02

  I usually save these like ladder stories for Friday, but this one like jumped out to me and I just wanna, it kinda, daily changes what we're about to get into. Um, this is from Dylan O'Sullivan. In 50 years, one of the most common deathbed regrets will be, I wasted my life on short form videos. And the darkest part is they won't even remember a single one.

• 1:42:08Tom Bilyeu?

  Bro, that's gangster. That's so true. So I limit, the only time that I do short form videos if I'm with my wife. And we're watching funny videos. Even that, we do very little of for that exact reason. Like it's fun, it's like popcorn munching. But it's like, at the end of the day, and here's the thing, you, I, I am now an old man, uh, screaming into the void. But it makes me tremendously sad that people will not experience the profound nature of a really good book. That you feel like you know the characters, you're learning something about yourself and the world and you feel lost in that world.

• 1:42:50Tom Bilyeu?

  Like that is such a joy for a, a certain personality type and that's just sort of going away. And the amount of time that we either used to have to just go be bored and you got super creative or go read a book, that was like a big thing. Mom, I'm bored, go read a book, go read a book, go read a book, go read a book. And it would open these incredible worlds to you. So, but it is what it is. Short form is having a dramatic impact on people's brains, their attention span, their desire for dopamine. So yeah, it's all wild. Now, fingers crossed, there's sort of a push back against that and people understand what a negative impact that it has.

• 1:43:29Tom Bilyeu?

  And they start basically limiting that access, but some people just are not good at self imposing limits. Like if you look at obesity rates are affect, not effectively, obesity rates are 100% in that person's control. And they just like a drug addict, they don't have the ability to not eat the thing. But since all you have to do is not eat the thing, um, yeah, obesity is 100% a problem of personal discipline. I'll be so curious to see how people respond to that. Uh, but that is mechanistically true. Now, having said that, I understand that some people get a brutal roll of the dice and we're all automaton.

• 1:44:11Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, you just, you got a brain that doesn't make that possible. So this is not a moral condemnation, it just is mechanistically true. So there are gonna be some people, they can't turn away from those tight dopamine loops and they will pull out their phone absentmindedly and begin scrolling. And it is a loss of time in the way that Mr. Dylan O'Sullivan has said. All right, everybody, that's it. Thank you, guys. You're all amazing. I appreciate being here. We will be back on Wednesday. And then on Thursday, we have an AI masterclass, November 5th at 1:00 PM Pacific. Link is in the description. This is a free masterclass. I will teach you guys how to launch a company using AI. It, dude, AI has changed everything. If you're not using AI, I guarantee you're falling behind.

• 1:44:55Tom Bilyeu?

  And as we're hearing right now, so many people can't get a job, make a job for yourself, build a company. If you're wired for it, it is one of the most extraordinary journeys you will ever go on. Obviously, I could not hype it enough. And Thursday, November 5th at, uh, 1:00 PM Pacific, I will teach you guys how to do that using AI. All right. We'll see you guys on Wednesday.

• 1:45:13Speaker 02

  Don't forget to vote tomorrow, vote tomorrow, vote tomorrow, vote tomorrow. Read the pamphlet. Don't just listen to what we say. Don't just follow the letters next to their name. Read the voter information pamphlet, do your research, don't blindly vote.

• 1:45:23Speaker 07

  Check your local elections, they're just as important as the ones on the larger scale.

• 1:45:27Tom Bilyeu?

  Yes, these are facts being spit. All right, everybody, we'll see you on Wednesday. Till then, be legendary, take care, peace. Let's talk about a pattern that is guaranteed to be killing your progress. You know what you need to do. You need consistent nutrition. We all do. You need vitamins, probiotics, greens. We all know that we should be doing more of it. When your morning gets chaotic, you skip it. When you travel, you skip it. When your routine breaks, everything tends to break and that inconsistency compounds against you every single day. AG1 is designed to solve the execution problem. One scoop, eight ounces of water and you're done. You're getting 75 plus ingredients, vitamins and minerals, pre and probiotics, nutrient dense superfoods,

• 1:46:08Tom Bilyeu?

  everything that used to require six, seven different supplements and perfect planning now happens in one drink that takes about 30 seconds to make. Right now, AG1 is giving you $87 worth of free gifts with your first subscription. You get a welcome kit, travel packs, vitamin D3 plus K2 and flavor samples. Click the link in the show notes or visit drinkag1.com/impact to claim this offer.