Diet TBPN: October 30, 2025

Our favorite moments from today's show, in under 30 minutes. TBPN.com is made possible by: Ramp - https://ramp.com Figma - https://figma.com Vanta - https://vanta.com Linear - https://linear.app Eight Sleep - https://eightsleep.com/tbpn Wander - https://wander.com/tbpn Public - https://public.com AdQuick - https://adquick.com Bezel - https://getbezel.com Numeral - https://www.numeralhq.com Polymarket - https://polymarket.com Attio - https://attio.com/tbpn Fin - https://fin.ai/tbpn Graphite - https://graphite.dev Restream - https://restream.io Profound - https://tryprofound.com Julius AI - https://julius.ai turbopuffer - https://turbopuffer.com fal - https://fal.ai Privy - https://www.privy.io Cognition - https://cognition.ai Gemini - https://gemini.google.com Follow TBPN: https://TBPN.com https://x.com/tbpn https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235 https://www.youtube.com/tbpnLive

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00John Coogan?

  Meta missed earnings. Meta reported record revenue in the third quarter, but the technology company warned of accelerating capital expenditures around artificial intelligence, sending its stock down 7%. Now a $1.7 trillion company. Not bad, but we are in the age of three, four, five trillion dollar companies now.

• 0:19Jordi Hays?

  Standout for me reels at north of a $50 billion run rate.

• 0:23John Coogan?

  Crazy, which is more than all of TV combined.

• 0:27Jordi Hays?

  In 2024, television advertising spending in the US was expected to amount to approximately $60 billion.

• 0:33John Coogan?

  I mean, they're within striking distance. So there was this one-time tax charge of $15.9 billion that crushed net income. Spending on AI researchers has also been crazy recently.

• 0:45Jordi Hays?

  So in between two stories, you can get up to

• 0:48John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 0:49Jordi Hays?

  five individual ads. So gotta pay for all that capex somehow.

• 0:54John Coogan?

  $51.2 billion in revenue this quarter. They were up 26% year over year. My bigger question today is what happens to the advertising cash machine once you're two decades in? I don't think these businesses, at least most of them, would exist if they hadn't grown up in a cash-rich environment. Like, I don't, I, it's just so hard to predict in 2009, how much capital is it going to take us to build a self-driving car network that we'll be able to launch in San Francisco and barely be profitable? And then we'll probably need another decade?

• 1:27Jordi Hays?

  Strange, strange comp here is YC, I don't know, it's some years ago at this point, was trying to understand what, what the factors that contributed to the breakout successes. And one factor was founders having wealthy parents. So the founders felt like they could just take these really massive, high-risk swings because they weren't going for a base hit. The founders like, if I make a few million dollars, it doesn't change my life, right? Trust is, is, is well beyond that.

• 1:54John Coogan?

  I gotta go big.

• 1:55Jordi Hays?

  And so I gotta go big, willing to like, look silly for a long period of time, willing to. Uh, you know, just stumble around as long as it takes to hit it really big.

• 2:04John Coogan?

  Google was able to just hold on to Waymo from 2009 to today, 16 years. They're probably still losing money on it. I wanted to look at some parallels between what's going on with with Google, who's been on a tear and now has this like, all of a sudden, pretty diversified business. The search giant, the search, the cash machine of the of the ads business is taking the other bets as their children. And now as search becomes less relevant potentially in the age of AI. Well, what does Alphabet have? They have Google Cloud, they have Waymo, they have Maps, Gmail, Chrome, DeepMind, Google AI. Like, it's a stacked lineup. And so, yes, even if search does get older.

• 2:45Jordi Hays?

  I love how YouTube is doesn't even isn't even deserving of its own Ninja Turtle. Right now, you're seeing more AI content on YouTube, but it's still created by independent channels. You know, YouTube pays out a huge amount of its revenue today to the creators on the platform. There's a world in the future where YouTube just generates the the video, the content itself through, you know, its its various AI products. It never actually has to pay out a creator.

• 3:07John Coogan?

  The Google story is very interesting. For the last decade, since 2015, when they rebranded as Alphabet, I feel like they were not getting a lot of credit. Now, everyone's waking up to this idea that it's like, whoa, they have like four monster businesses. And yeah, there's a ton of gravestones in the graveyard from various note-taking apps and chat apps and Google readers over there. But overall, they wound up building a very diverse, very valuable business where even if Waymo's not cash flowing a ton, is it worth $100 billion? Facebook rebranded to Meta in October of 2021. People, I think overly were overly narrow about framing that transition about specifically VR, specifically specifically virtual reality, the metaverse, everything that Mark Zuckerberg was investing in.

• 3:52Jordi Hays?

  I feel like the name Meta has aged pretty well.

• 3:55John Coogan?

  I agree.

• 3:56Jordi Hays?

  Even though it was ultimately embarrassing over investment at the time.

• 4:00John Coogan?

  It was just important for for Mark Zuckerberg to send the message that.

• 4:05Jordi Hays?

  We're not any single app.

• 4:06John Coogan?

  We're not Facebook. Yeah, yeah. And we're not even just social networking.

• 4:09Jordi Hays?

  People are using LLMs in social ways. And so as, as people spend more and more time talking to LLMs, that is time that they are not in meta. I'm just saying, like, Mark certainly sees ramping attention and user minutes on

• 4:25John Coogan?

  Totally.

• 4:25Jordi Hays?

  OpenAI products.

• 4:26John Coogan?

  Totally.

• 4:27Jordi Hays?

  And it's a concern. It's a risk.

• 4:30John Coogan?

  On the face of it, Google and Facebook have similar backstories, similar cultures, you know, young founders who, who built up these tech companies, only seven years, eight years apart from each other when they started. But Google had a very different culture. You know, it's a PhD research project, sort of an academic campus when you're walking around. The, the mission is organizing the world's information. It's like very nerdy. And that obviously translates to, hey, how do we organize the world's information? Let's create a mapping product, Google Maps. Okay, what do we do when we have all the maps? Let's try and drive around a car on it. And then they get self-driving cars, right? And it's like, it's a little bit harder to jump from like, our mission is to bring people together.

• 5:10John Coogan?

  So we're generating AI or VR, which feels like the opposite direction.

• 5:16Jordi Hays?

  What's Meta's mission? Monetize the world's attention? I would love for Mark to just go supervillain mode again. Updated on Halloween? Spooky.

• 5:26John Coogan?

  I like that. Are any of the side projects going to become monsters? Because you're kind of in the side project era now that you're 20 years old.

• 5:32Jordi Hays?

  In the second quarter of 2022, Reels was at a $1 billion run rate. By the third quarter of 2022, a $3 billion run rate, second quarter of '23, 10 billion. And the third quarter of 2025, 50 billion. So the growth is absolutely incredible.

• 5:48John Coogan?

  Google's parent company reported a 16% surge in third quarter revenue, with growth in its digital advertising and cloud computing units, helping to finance robust artificial intelligence spending. Sales reached a record 102.3 billion.

• 6:03Jordi Hays?

  Is that good?

• 6:05John Coogan?

  Hey, we did our first hundred billion dollar quarter. Net income was thirty five billion, a thirty three percent increase from the same period a year ago. Like other large tech companies, Google is pouring tens of billions of dollars into AI development. I mean, what a remarkable result. Let's move on to some timeline. Let's move on to some news. Tyler, what's new in your world?

• 6:26Speaker 02

  I mean, most of the big news, I guess, was the OpenAI IPO.

• 6:31John Coogan?

  Yeah. OpenAI lays the groundwork for juggernaut IPO at up to a one trillion dollar valuation. The company has looked at raising sixty billion at the low end and likely more. They cautioned that talks are early and plans, including figures and timing, could change depending on business growth and market conditions.

• 6:53Jordi Hays?

  Depending on where Meta's market cap is at the time of the OpenAI IPO will be like potentially, it will be an interesting comp because you're going to be able to look at a business that's like, you know, at scale, like profitable, still growing very quickly versus OpenAI, which we know will be losing, you know, tens of billions of dollars at the time of the IPO.

• 7:17John Coogan?

  Makes no sense what the F Meta is spending all this money on. You've spent seventy billion on Reality Labs to make the Ray-Ban vision? Are you serious? I don't know. He does have one of the biggest cash machines in the entire world, in the entire history of business. Google has all this money. Why do they have this growing cash pile? Why can't they find something to do with it? They truly had too much cash to do. They like, they invested so much in Waymo and so much in DeepMind and so much in Google Cloud. And at the same time, they still had money left over.

• 7:51Jordi Hays?

  Meta Platforms is one of the greatest businesses of all time. And the CEO is a little crazy. He's a bit of a wild card. Like, he has, like, obviously has an incredible-

• 8:00John Coogan?

  That's true for all of the big tech companies.

• 8:01Jordi Hays?

  And the last time that Mark invested this, heavily in something, it did not deliver ROI.

• 8:08Speaker 02

  People were calling for Sundar to be basically fired for like a long time.

• 8:11John Coogan?

  I know.

• 8:11Speaker 02

  Like, until like, basically this year.

• 8:13John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 8:13Speaker 02

  So I feel like you're-

• 8:16Jordi Hays?

  Exaggerating how much like Google has been like this like winner the whole time. Breaking news.

• 8:20John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 8:20Jordi Hays?

  This is gonna rock your world.

• 8:21John Coogan?

  No way.

• 8:22Jordi Hays?

  Taylor Sheridan and Peter Berg team on Paramount and Activision's Call of Duty movie.

• 8:29John Coogan?

  Let's go.

• 8:29Jordi Hays?

  Let's go. Hit the, hit the gong for that. The creators that made Yellowstone, Hell or High Water, and Lone Survivor and Sicario.

• 8:38John Coogan?

  Basically, Taylor Sheridan left Ellison's new empire, left Paramount, and said, hey, I'm out and I'm going over to NBC Universal. I'm riding with the Comcasters. Uh, this AI stuff is so dumb. Zuck is repeating the 2022 sinking of a great money machine in Meta with wasteful spend. The Metaverse sucked and AI is nearly as dumb.

• 9:04Jordi Hays?

  I think part of the blowback here is that the first AI product that Meta announced was Metavibe. That does not inspire confidence, right? Because it was, they, if they had launched Sora, people would have been saying like, wow.

• 9:18John Coogan?

  It's not like you walk down the street and you were like, oh, wow. Like this is actually breaking through with just like everyday random people in the way that Threads has. I don't know, maybe in a year we'll be like, oh, wow, they actually figured it out. They funneled a ton of people to Metavibes and it's as successful as Threads. It seems like a tall order.

• 9:36Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, it won't be.

• 9:36John Coogan?

  The Jensen video is only seven seconds, so look at this. He's having beers with some absolute dogs. He's hanging out with the CEO of Samsung, the CEO of Hyundai, hanging out in South Korea. Just having some beers, crushing some beers with the boys. This is how you do it. People will call it a top signal.

• 9:55Jordi Hays?

  I mean, this is gonna go so hard in a top signal vibral that we will definitely create. Yeah. When the time is right.

• 10:03John Coogan?

  Korea has the best fried chicken in the world, taking shots at Colonel Sanders.

• 10:08Speaker 03

  I don't know why Korea has the world's best fried chicken, but Korea has the world's best fried chicken.

• 10:13John Coogan?

  Let's go.

• 10:14Speaker 03

  Best fried chicken in America is Korean. Neo's Nvidia investors.

• 10:22Speaker 03

  That's why Korea is so rich.

• 10:27John Coogan?

  He's got bits.

• 10:27Jordi Hays?

  He's feeling good right now. I mean, on your five trillion day, I mean,

• 10:31John Coogan?

  I mean, come on.

• 10:32Jordi Hays?

  Let him have a little fun.

• 10:34John Coogan?

  The first trillion took him 6,138 days. The second trillion, they did it in 180 days. The third trillion in 66 days. Then the fourth trillion was in 273 days. And then the fifth trillion in 78 days. So from 6,000 days, it took him 20 years to make that first trillion. They say that the first trillion is the hardest.

• 10:57Jordi Hays?

  But they do say that. Amazon will sue me for leaking this. He says, worth it. New.

• 11:02John Coogan?

  This is so funny. Putting the tiny Amazon package in the missile launcher. That just flies in. Me, after loading the dishwasher, instead of paying a robot $20,000 to do it for me. And I wonder.

• 11:17Jordi Hays?

  Chrome hearts all over my Neo.

• 11:20John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 11:20Jordi Hays?

  He says 20K to simulate the experience of a roommate with a ketamine problem.

• 11:24John Coogan?

  It's ridiculous.

• 11:27Jordi Hays?

  No, this is what we were saying, that we were saying on the show yesterday. It's like, hey, Neo, you know, clean up all those wine glasses. And it's just like.

• 11:36John Coogan?

  Yeah, just smashing everything.

• 11:38Jordi Hays?

  Neo with, got the Glock out. Now tell me where the seed phrase is. Got to make sure that the, just another reason why they put the experts locally.

• 11:48John Coogan?

  You definitely have to arm them. This is important.

• 11:51Jordi Hays?

  Every day, I'm more bullish on 1X.

• 11:55John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 11:55Jordi Hays?

  They have a great understanding of the internet.

• 11:57John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 11:58Jordi Hays?

  They're folk, they've been focused on like a specific use case, the home for a while.

• 12:01John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 12:01Jordi Hays?

  They're focused on teleoperation, which is the right thing to be focused on.

• 12:05John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 12:05Jordi Hays?

  Because even if it's only as good at teleoperation forever.

• 12:08John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 12:09Jordi Hays?

  That still could be valuable. Wait till you find that MF 20K clanker in your kitchen acting too friendly.

• 12:15John Coogan?

  It's ridiculous.

• 12:16Jordi Hays?

  Damn. After so long.

• 12:18John Coogan?

  Oh, that's funny. I got caught following it. But I did like this post. And I was like, I gotta follow this. There's a dev.

• 12:23Jordi Hays?

  Eric Katana has a less, less, not so PC post in here. Is it gay to have sex with a female robot teleoperated by a man?

• 12:33John Coogan?

  Elon Musk comes in with the crying emoji.

• 12:36Jordi Hays?

  Crying emoji.

• 12:38John Coogan?

  I don't know. We'll leave that to the philosophers, I suppose.

• 12:41Jordi Hays?

  My sense is that selling Blackwell chips to China would quite possibly be the most unpopular tech policy move of the Trump admin, especially on Capitol Hill. It's plausible that the long-term, really even near-term result will be much more compute regulation.

• 12:56John Coogan?

  I like this guy, Dean Ball. Tyler, do you know Ball?

• 12:59Speaker 02

  I think you've already made this joke. Yeah, I don't think the capabilities right now merit the nationalization.

• 13:05John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 13:05Speaker 02

  But I think a lot of people still think that like, it's like, you know, two more years, then we'll be at a point where like, it would make sense for there to be like major geopolitical conflict just over the AI question. The people who were super like bullish on that idea, I think are still, I don't think they've been fully like disproven yet.

• 13:23John Coogan?

  Yeah. Even if we wanted to sell Blackwell to China, would they even buy it? The more you buy, the less incentive you have to build locally.

• 13:31Jordi Hays?

  Zero Hash. We talked about this briefly yesterday. Mastercard is set to acquire crypto startup Zero Hash for nearly $2 billion. Zero Hash powers most crypto to fiat on-off ramps, holding money transmitter licenses and MSB licenses across the US. Most on-ramps you use today likely run through Zero Hash. This is a pretty big deal. So Mastercard getting into the game. Please vote your Tesla stock. There is no one remotely close to my brother and no CEO on earth that would accept this package. It is a massive win for you as a shareholder every way you look at it. Elon says, thanks, bro. These are the original technology brothers.

• 14:08John Coogan?

  What is, oh, true.

• 14:10Jordi Hays?

  CEO gets 10% of the incremental value creation if they 10x the stock with a 2x hurdle. So shareholders get a 900% stock increase and the CEO gets an incremental 10%. The first Tesla plan incented Elon to 10x the value of Tesla. He achieved all the milestones and may never be paid for this.

• 14:26John Coogan?

  There is no one remotely close to Elon for Tesla. Like, I'm totally in on that. I'm in on the idea of incentive packages. I like that as a structure.

• 14:36Jordi Hays?

  It's just that the targets are so aggressive that most CEOs don't think they would achieve them.

• 14:41John Coogan?

  Like, if I go to the CEO of Target or something and say like, okay, you won't make a dime unless you 10x the stock, they're gonna be like, what are you talking about? No way. He was the senior vice president, iPhone software. 13 years ago, he was apparently fired from Apple after the disastrous launch of Apple Maps.

• 15:02Jordi Hays?

  I am an Apple Maps.

• 15:05Jordi Hays?

  Guy.

• 15:05John Coogan?

  Apple Maps was this kind of disastrous launch where it really didn't work as anywhere near Google Maps, but eventually they turned it around and Apple Maps became a really great product for the iPhone. As someone with a bit of insider info, sorry for baiting, I can tell you that the current trajectory for Apple would likely have been better off if he ended up CEO.

• 15:30Jordi Hays?

  I wonder what he thinks about iOS 17. I keep getting ads for cocaine on Facebook.

• 15:37John Coogan?

  Oh, yes.

• 15:38Jordi Hays?

  They're just using Linktree as a cloaking page, kind of surprised this works. And to that, I would say, who's going to pay for the CapEx, right?

• 15:46John Coogan?

  Oh, okay. We will see you tomorrow. It's Halloween. We have a special show for you. Please tune in.

• 15:52Jordi Hays?

  Tomorrow's gonna be spooky. And I can't wait.

• 15:55John Coogan?

  Goodbye.