How We Really Get to Mars: Space Travel, Human Survival, and the Next 100 Years of Society | Andy Weir PT 2

In Part 2 of Tom’s wide-ranging conversation with Andy Weir, Andy explores how AI will transform material science, medicine, biotechnology, and possibly even human evolution itself. From AI-designed drugs and custom gene editing to the ethical dilemmas of “designer babies” and the future of cosmetic self-alteration, Andy contemplates what these advances could mean for human identity, equality, and society’s deepest values. The episode then hurtles into the far future, weighing the prospects of artificial superintelligence, AI alignment, and the ultimate “tool or agent” debate. Tom and Andy touch on open versus closed source AI, existential risk, and what humanity’s historical track record tells us about technology. SHOWNOTES 22:08 AI’s leap in material science, biotech, and AlphaFold’s revolution 28:49 Hardware bottlenecks and the coming “AI card” revolution 32:09 Efficiency breakthroughs, compression, and training paradigm shifts 36:10 How new materials could propel us to low Earth orbit 38:39 AI-designed proteins: The promise and danger within biology 39:47 The ethics of designer babies: Health, intelligence, and consent 46:38 The coming age of “cosmetic ethnicity” and identity fluidity 47:29 Body hacking: Social and economic consequences, from eating to politics 48:32 Why society will push—and resist—genetic modifications 49:34 The looming “intelligence arms race” between humans and AI 50:15 Why Andy doubts the need to compete with AI; the “bulldozer analogy” 57:15 Caution and optimism: Why Andy expects a post-scarcity AI future 58:10 Why “control” is likely to stay with humans—unless we hand it over 1:01:04 Open source debate, narrative control, and algorithmic bias 1:28:00 What excites Andy: Self-driving cars and societal revolution 1:33:57 Andy on writing, his approach to AI, and what’s next for his books 1:35:29 Where to follow Andy Weir FOLLOW ANDY WEIR: Twitter/X: @andyweirauthor https://twitter.com/andyweirauthor Facebook: Andy Weir https://www.facebook.com/andyweirauthor CHECK OUT OUR SPONSORS ButcherBox: Ready to level up your meals? Go to ⁠https://ButcherBox.com/impact⁠ https://butcherbox.com/impact to get $20 off your first box and FREE bacon for life with the Bilyeu Box! Vital Proteins: Get 20% off by going to ⁠https://www.vitalproteins.com⁠ https://www.vitalproteins.com and entering promo code IMPACT at check out Netsuite: Download the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning at ⁠https://NetSuite.com/THEORY⁠ https://netsuite.com/THEORY iTrust Capital: Use code IMPACTGO when you sign up and fund your account to get a $100 bonus at ⁠https://www.itrustcapital.com/tombilyeu⁠ https://www.itrustcapital.com/tombilyeu Mint Mobile: If you like your money, Mint Mobile is for you. Shop plans at ⁠https://mintmobile.com/impact.⁠ https://mintmobile.com/impact DISCLAIMER: Upfront payment of $45 for 3-month 5 gigabyte plan required (equivalent to $15/mo.). New customer offer for first 3 months only, then full-price plan options available. Taxes & fees extra. See MINT MOBILE for details. What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: If you want my help... STARTING a business:⁠ join me here at ZERO TO FOUNDER⁠ https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show SCALING a business:⁠ see if you qualify here.⁠ https://tombilyeu.com/call Get my battle-tested strategies and insights delivered weekly to your inbox:⁠ sign up here.⁠ https://tombilyeu.com/ ********************************************************************** If you're serious about leveling up your life, I urge you to check out my new podcast,⁠ Tom Bilyeu’s Mindset Playbook⁠ https://open.spotify.com/show/47VE90Cittmo6TGGFqg2xf —a goldmine of my most impactful episodes on mindset, business, and health. Trust me, your future self will thank you. ********************************************************************** LISTEN TO IMPACT THEORY AD FREE + BONUS EPISODES on APPLE PODCASTS:⁠ apple.co/impacttheory⁠ http://apple.co/impacttheory ********************************************************************** FOLLOW TOM: Instagram:⁠ https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/⁠ https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok:⁠ https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en⁠ https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter:⁠ https://twitter.com/tombilyeu⁠ https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube:⁠ https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu⁠ https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices https://megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

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• 1:08Speaker 01

  I'm Tom Bilyeu, and this is Impact Theory. Welcome back to my conversation with Andy. We are a bestselling author, problem solver, and one of the most original thinkers of our time. If you haven't listened to part one yet, go back and start there. It'll give you the foundation you need to enjoy part two. Now, we go even deeper into how Andy thinks, how he builds entire worlds from the ground up, the mental models he uses to stress test ideas, and what we can all learn from using fiction as a sandbox for real world innovation. Let's dive right back in.

• 1:37Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, going back to, people are going to edit, but I think they will largely do it in response to something. And I think one of the somethings that's going to drive people to want to edit the human genome is to be in a race with AI for ability. And that if there is no upper bound and AI is able to achieve super intelligence, and a stat I like to remind my audience of is Einstein was 2.4 times smarter by IQ than a definitional moron who's like 80. Two or eighty three points, something like that. And obviously, the results that were given to the world by Einstein versus somebody who's definitionally a moron is vast.

• 2:19Tom Bilyeu?

  And so if that's only two point four X, um, it seems self evident to me that, give it enough years. And I'll certainly say within twenty five years, I cannot fathom a universe in which AI is not uh, ten times or more smarter than the average person. So now we're getting into a world where artificial intelligence absolutely dwarfs human intelligence. And I know that some people, myself included, are not just going to take that sitting down. And if there is a safe technology that allows me to upgrade myself, I absolutely will. Do you think that we will be in an intelligence arms race with AI?

• 2:59Speaker 02

  No, um, I think that I don't think that'll happen at all. I think that we will just make AI to do things. We don't need to be more intelligent than them, any more than we need to be stronger than the bulldozer we're using to build the house or to level the house. We don't, we didn't, it's not like, I mean, maybe John Hendry wanted to compete with a steam shovel. But beyond that, we just kind of accepted that those things are better at us than at that task, right? And intellect and invention will eventually just be yet another thing that used to be controlled by the human endeavor that can now be done better by machines. And so why would you go out of your way to try to make your body better at it when you can just tell the machine do that?

• 3:43Speaker 02

  As long as we control what the AIs are doing, then then we're fine. So the reason people don't feel like they need to be stronger than a bulldozer is because bulldozers don't go rogue, right? So now we're getting into the core matter that everybody always asked me about, which is like, will AIs go rogue? And I say, no. It's, it's like, um, people are afraid about the evils of AI, but I would say, let's talk about a hammer. Okay, a hammer is a tool that I can use to build a house, but it's also an implement that I can use to murder someone. There's nothing inherently scary about the invention of the hammer. It's just who has the hammer and what they're doing with it. So AI is going to be no different.

• 4:25Speaker 02

  If you have an AI that's able to make these protein folds to give you a cosmetic ethnicity, it's also able to make a virus that only attacks Jewish people, you know? So it's, it's who's using it that matters.

• 4:40Tom Bilyeu?

  For sure, but hiding in there is what I call a base assumption. And that base assumption is that AI will not need motivation to accomplish the task that we want it to accomplish as the wielder of the tool. Now, if that's true, and AI just does not care whether it achieves the goal to which it is set upon, great. But one thing you hear a lot about is reward function in getting AIs to do the thing that you want it to do. Given that we are already using reward functions, meaning that it has a desire to get that reward, to train AIs, why do you believe that that won't go awry as it becomes more intelligent?

• 5:26Speaker 02

  Well, wouldn't a really intelligent AI just figure out how to provide its own reward directly? Like, wouldn't you, wouldn't you say, like, if you could just tell your brain, release dopamine, wouldn't, wouldn't you?

• 5:42Speaker 02

  Like, activate my pleasure center. All right. People are like, ah, right? So if an AI is completely, is so heavily driven by its reward system, it would just find ways to activate its reward system. But we're still limited by not really understanding how our brains work and how to just very easily activate our reward system. An AI would not have that limitation. So I don't think you can withhold something from the internal neural network of an AI. It'll just figure out how to get it.

• 6:16Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay.

• 6:17Speaker 02

  And humans, by the way, did figure out how to hack our reward system. It's called drug abuse.

• 6:24Tom Bilyeu?

  Very true.

• 6:24Speaker 02

  Goes in and directly activates the dopamine, the centers of our brain that produce pleasure chemicals and just turns it on. And that's why you feel great when you take drugs. Also does a bunch of damage to you, but yeah.

• 6:36Tom Bilyeu?

  Do you know what Mouse Utopia is?

• 6:39Speaker 02

  Yeah, universe 25.

• 6:41Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah. So is is it possible that given that Utopia's collapse, even in real life in the mouse studies, is it possible that AI hits some sort of upper limit where it does become aware of how its own mind works? It does have a pleasure center and it goes in and just starts messing with it and becomes effectively useless?

• 7:03Speaker 02

  Well, then that would that would be a pruned branch of technological development. People tell it, well, that doesn't work. Right?

• 7:10Tom Bilyeu?

  Do you think that will happen though?

• 7:12Speaker 02

  Maybe, but it doesn't really matter. That would just become a dead branch of development. They'd work on something else. Imagine if instead during the evolution of of human brains somewhere way back there, there was some monkey ancestor of ours that had just a pleasure center that would just fire off all the time. A monkey's just like, I'm loving life. And he lays down and starves to death. Right? Not selected for.

• 7:37Tom Bilyeu?

  Very true. Okay. So do you think about the alignment problem? And you just think that this is a non-issue because again, it's going to remain a tool?

• 7:46Speaker 02

  And that is, that is my belief. I mean, I so AIs don't have a limbic system. They don't have an inherent drive to survive. They don't have physical needs pressing on them. A human brain is a specialized AI made for keeping a human body alive and surviving long enough to make more humans. That's what the human brain is. It's a specialized hardcoded AI to do that. General AIs don't have to have that limitation.

• 8:17Tom Bilyeu?

  So what you know about machine learning? What what are they? Because as far as I understand that they do use a reward function now, are there other methods that are already being in use that would be what I'd call quote unquote safer?

• 8:33Speaker 02

  I now we're getting to the edge of my knowledge on AI programming, but internally in a neural network, you have to have reward and punishment. You need to say like, okay, that was good. That worked well. Strengthen all these neurons, or that didn't work. Weaken all these neurons. I mean, that's how a neural network works. It's inherent to the system. So unless there's, I mean, I just, we're reaching the edge of my knowledge on this stuff. So, but I don't think you can get around it.

• 9:03Tom Bilyeu?

  It's interesting. The thing that I have always worried about is that, given that fact, that ultimately what's going to happen to an AI is they will realize, "Oh, I really care about this outcome that you programmed me for." And unlike a hammer, which does not have a reward function, and therefore clearly does not "care" about whether you build a house or beat somebody to death, I, the AI, do care about achieving my reward function. And if it, it all comes down to the word "care" for me. So if it actually cares, like, "I want to achieve this goal", then you have a potential runaway AI problem. If it does not care, and this has always been how I, because like you, I don't know that you would use these words, but here's how I think about the future.

• 9:48Tom Bilyeu?

  There's, we're going to go through a period of disruption from a job's perspective. I think that's very real. However, as an act of faith, I choose to believe, based on looking backwards and seeing how technology and innovation has always made things better, after periods of disruption, that AI will be the same. After a period of disruption, the future will be better than the past. And so whether that's it creates jobs that I just can't predict right now, or whether it takes us completely post-capitalist, and it's just a better world, it's a world of abundance, and we're able to grab all the energy of the star, or at least all the energy that lands on Earth, and now energy costs are free, and that makes labor costs effectively free.

• 10:27Speaker 02

  You're talking about scarcity, right?

• 10:29Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay. Yeah, exactly. Everybody can have all the things they want. Capitalism doesn't matter anymore, and all the problems of that just go away. I believe in that as an act of faith. But the thing that I always bump up against is, if I have an AI that does not care, it has a goal, but it doesn't care whether it achieves the goal or not, then it's like, "Oh, being turned off or being told not to continue pursuing that is equally 'pleasurable' as achieving it."

• 10:59Tom Bilyeu?

  Then you don't have to worry about runaway AI. But minus that, you do. And so I'm still left, even after hearing your argument, where I can go, okay, as an act of faith, I can believe that it doesn't care about achieving its goal. But given that, it's the only thing that certainly either of us are aware of as a way to get these things to move forward. There is some amount of like, no, no, no, I do want to achieve this.

• 11:22Speaker 02

  I get it, but that's such a sci fi trope. I mean, people don't, you know, the idea of a rogue AI. Okay, but I want you to consider the more of the real world ramifications of this. You know what else can go rogue? Your car, because you forgot to put the parking brake. Right? It'll roll down a hill. Okay, so I want, or, or, or maybe a better example would be your car because the, the brakes fail or something like that, right? We don't rely on humans to be able to stop the car. We rely on other mechanisms to be able to stop the car, like a tow truck or something like that. So in the end, we would just have other AIs monitoring those AIs.

• 12:04Speaker 02

  So now in order to have like a rogue AI, you would need to have a conspiracy of AIs. And that starts to get a little hard for me to buy into. You know what I mean? And furthermore, like, I don't think people are going, I mean, it would be foolish in the extreme and very quickly shown to be so to give AIs direct executive function over what they're doing. I think all we're ever going to have is AI, or all you should have is AI say, here's the answer to that question you were looking for. Not like, oh yeah, sure, please put me in charge of a bunch of kill bots. I'll use them for good. It's like that, that, that's the sort of stupid decision making that only happens in fiction. Right?

• 12:46Speaker 02

  I don't think we're going to have even AI doctors in our lifetime, not that actually perform any medical things. Like I think we'll absolutely have AI doctors in that you tell your symptoms to the computer and the computer says, okay, run these tests. And then, you know, people run the tests and the computer says like, oh, you have, you know, I think you have this problem with try this treatment, you know, like all that stuff you can do. Hell, you can almost do that with that algorithm anyway. But and AI doctors might even be smarter and clever and more like on the doctor house end of things for figuring out like stuff that most people would miss. But you're not going to give the AI like a robot that can run around injecting people with things, right?

• 13:28Speaker 02

  It's just going to tell you, here, here you go. I even think once we're talking to the hundred year scheme, a hundred year time span, we could have AI governance, right? You could have just an AI goes like, all right, uh, stop planting barley over there and start planting millet. You, you need to do that. Also, uh, we do need to decrease the tax on alcohol by point oh three percent and increase the tax on whipped cream by point one oh. And that I've run all the models, this will lead to an economic boom. Yeah, you wouldn't understand why. And then whether you do it or not, that's up to the humans who are running your society.

• 14:11Speaker 02

  It's just the AI is like, here's the answer.

• 14:14Tom Bilyeu?

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• 16:41Tom Bilyeu?

  All right, we're back. Let's get into it. Now, do you think about AI being open? Do you think it should be open-sourced?

• 16:51Speaker 02

  I've never bought into the idea that anything should be open-sourced. I'm totally fine with a company owning the products that it makes. So I'm not an open-source evangelist. I'm not in that world. I think there's absolutely nothing wrong with a company spending a billion dollars to research something and then choosing not to share how to do it.

• 17:12Tom Bilyeu?

  What prompted that question for me, because I totally agree with you on that, but the reason I've always found it interesting that guys like Imad Mostak are going crazy trying to get this open-sourced and out in other people's hands, meaning not the ones that are closed-source, let them be closed-source, but that there is an open-sourced option. But what triggered me to ask that is when you were saying, "Look, only a sci-fi writer is going to be dumb enough to give an AI executive control, but if it's open-source, now you've got everybody on planet Earth has access to that, and I don't know if you feel like you can trust every human..." To not

• 17:49Speaker 02

  Oh, oh, no, I I'm assuming this is a world where everyone has access to these AIs. Like ever on your personal computer. Remember, I was talking about just on your computer at home. You have like an AI that can create a movie for you. You know that that'll be tailored to you and you'll love it. But um, I still don't see it as that big an issue because again, what executive control can you give your AI? Let's say you had an AI on your desk right now that was from 100 years in the future. What would you personally do? With what kind of you, you would always be a pass through for what the AI was doing. One way or another.

• 18:28Tom Bilyeu?

  I don't understand that. So if I had a super intelligent AI and I, let's just say I made a mistake. I don't have to be evil, but if I ask

• 18:37Speaker 02

  What is the, what is the executive function? What is the ability to affect the real world that you as an ordinary person, not a big company, but just an ordinary person in a garage could do? You could maybe have it drive your car. I mean, what is the most destructive thing that it could do by a typical layman? That the layman himself couldn't already do. Right?

• 19:00Tom Bilyeu?

  I don't know what you mean by the typical layman. So I can paint disaster scenario on disaster scenario.

• 19:07Tom Bilyeu?

  But to your point, I'm thinking like a sci fi writer, but here's an easy one. There is on X right now, an AI called Truth Terminal. And Truth Terminal was given, I think, a $50,000 Bitcoin investment from Marc Andreessen. And Truth Terminal at one point was up millions of dollars because it was betting on meme coins. Now, if you gave Truth Terminal the ability to launch its own meme coin, it's entirely possible that it could. I mean, certainly win a lot of money that it's winning from other people. And now if that is a super intelligent AI that knows exactly how to manipulate people or to time the market, you could run into a situation where the AI is just gobbling up people's capital.

• 19:49Speaker 02

  So now you're in a scenario where one actor has access to an AI. Now imagine everybody has one of these AIs on their deck, which is what you're talking about with open source. And I'm like, oh, that coin looks good. And my AI is like, that's bullshit. Don't do it.

• 20:05Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, that's why that's the argument for open source.

• 20:08Speaker 02

  It's like anti malware, you know, it's well, no. The argument for open source is just the same as the argument against open source. It's just kind of this, oh, you need open source because you need to protect yourself from other people who have this open source.

• 20:23Speaker 02

  Right?

• 20:23Tom Bilyeu?

  Sort of. So the most compelling argument that I've heard about. Why you would want open source is twofold. One, exactly what you just said, so that everybody's going to have it. You need to protect yourself from it. But also, let's imagine a world where there is no open source and it's only companies and every AI has a massive amount of bias built into it. And so just like Jack Dorsey is really going on a tear right now, talking to people, saying, listen, you're being programmed by your algorithm. And we need to move into a world where you can go to like an algorithm store and buy an algorithm that makes you feel the way that you want to feel. So that you don't feel like you're being blindly manipulated by something.

• 21:02Tom Bilyeu?

  And so same idea with the open AI is now you can tailor the AI to the worldview that you have or the way that you want to see the world. Or just so that you're not being blindly manipulated by somebody else. And to me, that's very much the the one two punch of what you're talking about is nuclear proliferation, where it's like, hey, I have nukes too, so I'm gonna keep you from attacking me because you know I could attack you right back. And then there is the other side of like, I'm now I'm just not under anybody's control because I'm able to craft something myself. The part I'm talking about.

• 21:40Speaker 02

  I mean, I understand what you're saying, but for me, this is just kind of a. One of the duller aspects of AI discussions. It's just, I mean, you can, you can talk about this with literally any piece of technology is what if someone misuses it? Shouldn't we democratize it to make sure that everybody can use it? It's just, oh, wake me when this part is over. It's just.

• 22:05Speaker 02

  Literally, this discussion comes up for every piece of technology like ever, especially things that don't require a physical product like software. You know? It's like. Ultimately, the the world always finds a balance. It's one way or another, it's like, most people use Microsoft Word for the people who really don't like it, they can use Open Office.

• 22:29Speaker 02

  No one can prevent you from making an open source AI.

• 22:34Speaker 02

  They're not going to make it outlawed, right? So if there's a need for it, people will make it.

• 22:40Tom Bilyeu?

  Um, okay. There is a base assumption in there that I've heard you talk about. It's probably worth you planting a flag on, which you have said there. Name me a technology that has ever delivered more harm than good.

• 22:53Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 22:53Tom Bilyeu?

  If you don't mind giving us that breakdown, that would be, I think, useful at this juncture.

• 22:59Speaker 02

  Well, that's the thing that I, that I often challenge when I'm at an event and I'm talking to people in the crowd and stuff. I say like, try to name any technology that has done more harm than good. Cause I see a lot of like techno alarmism. I see a lot of people, and I think that the show Black Mirror kind of perfectly encapsulates it. Every episode is about some horrific misuse of technology. And I'm like, okay, but in real life, name a technology that's done more harm than good. And people are like, oh, nuclear weapons. I'm like, nuclear power, you know? Like, how many, how many people have died as a result of nuclear weapons? Okay. How many people have not died in coal mines as a result of nuclear power? Right?

• 23:38Speaker 02

  And then people are like, oh, biological weapons. I'm like, well, if you're going to get into the realm of biological research, I think I can point out a lot of places where it's done good for humanity. Even things like dynamite has done more good for humanity than harm. So I just think that, um, that any, I, I guess it comes down to, I have a faith in humanity. Humans are inherently more cooperative than they are destructive. If you get a bunch of humans and give them a bunch of tools, 99% of them will try to figure out ways to use those tools to help people. First themselves, but then others. And then 1% will try to figure out ways to use those tools to destroy. But the other 99% will then use those tools to keep that 1% from destroying.

• 24:20Speaker 02

  You know, it's like, just, and, and I feel like this has been proven again and again and again, as every new technology enters the human knowledge base. People figure out ways to, to use it for good.

• 24:33Speaker 02

  If you, I, I, I bet you, if you went and asked, uh, you know, a thousand people, let's say you're an alien from outer space and with ultimate technology. And you go whole bunch of people on like, I have a device that can, that can render a species extinct instantly. Or it could be a subsection of a species. So for instance, an ethnicity in your, in your, in your world, if you want. I think the vast majority of people would eventually say, get rid of malaria.

• 25:02Speaker 02

  Or AIDS, you know, that's a species, render that extinct. I think that's what most people would come to. There'd be a few people who say, get rid of all the black people. But they would be greatly outnumbered by the people who say like, hey, I think malaria kills more people than anyone else. Right? Let's get rid of that.

• 25:20Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, I think every argument that you make there, the reason that this is the boring part of the discussion for you is you have a base assumption that AI is never going to have its own desires and outsmart us to treat us like the anthill in Elon's example where he said, uh, listen, AI is a demon summoning circle and, uh, you, just like the kids in the movie who summon the demon, you think, oh, this will be fine. I'll be able to control it. And then you realize, oh, wait a second, this thing is a lot smarter than me. And hey, we want to do this thing to achieve the goal that I have. And sorry, you guys are just in the way. And like we would destroy an anthill to put down a freeway. It's not, no hard feelings. It's not like we dislike ants or anything.

• 26:05Tom Bilyeu?

  We're just a level cognitively above them that is so hard to comprehend from the position of the ant. But your assumption is it's always going to remain a tool. Uh, it's not going to have agency unto itself. It will not have desires.

• 26:19Speaker 02

  The ants did not give us highway construction equipment.

• 26:23Speaker 02

  Like our own executive ability to do things that affect the real world is what gives us the ability to destroy the ants. Even if the ants had created us in the first place. Okay. So again, unless you put an AI in charge of a nuclear arsenal or something like that, it doesn't have the executive ability to do the things that it's thinking about. It can try to outsmart humans into doing it, but that's what humans do. Now you're talking about an AI that's good at politics. That's all.

• 26:53Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, but do you think I've misrepresented your position?

• 26:57Speaker 02

  Oh, um, yes, a little bit because

• 27:01Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay.

• 27:02Speaker 02

  Um, I, I do feel that humanity is inherently good. But I also feel that like, um, you said-

• 27:10Tom Bilyeu?

  You know, I'm not talking about humanity, right?

• 27:12Speaker 02

  Right, I understand, but I do not, I think it's not so much that you misrepresented my position. I just think that you have a hidden assumption over and over again during this conversation. Every time you start to go off into these scenarios, you have this hidden assumption that AI is going to have the executive ability to activate plans that can do a lot of harm. And I just don't see how that happens. So in your analysis of like, we would, we would pave an anthill in order to make a freeway. Well, the AI might come up with ideas that are effectively like that. They say like, oh, you know what? If you kill 90% of the people in your society, you won't have food problems anymore. Why don't you do that? But we're not going to give it the ability to enforce that. Right?

• 27:56Speaker 02

  We're not going to say like, hey, AI, we want you to solve all the world's problems. Here's a, here's a robot army and you know, here's a bunch of nuclear weapons and you just do whatever you need to do. I mean, we're not going to give the AI construction equipment capable of paving over our anthill.

• 28:17Tom Bilyeu?

  Yep, so, uh, the way that I see it is as follows. I'm just trying to map what you think. I'm trying to figure out what your base assumptions are. It sounds like you agree that I understand your base assumption. Um, and where we're at is just, we each have a different base assumption. So my base assumption to put in a super fine nutshell is, uh, if AI is motivated

• 28:45Tom Bilyeu?

  by desire to achieve its outcome and it becomes smarter than us, then all bets are off.

• 28:51Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 28:52Tom Bilyeu?

  Um, I don't expect you to agree with that. You've been very clear that you don't think that's going to happen.

• 28:57Speaker 02

  I don't think that's gonna happen because that's, that's like, bear in mind, that's, uh, that can only happen if all the AIs plural in the world agree. Right? So if you have an AI and I have an AI, then my AI's job is to protect me from your AI. You know what I mean? It's like, okay, it's, it's an arms race.

• 29:19Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, look, I'm I am fundamentally optimistic about the future. I think that, again, as an act of faith, I believe that the future is going to be better than the present, that AI is going to end up being wonderful. The thing I'm always curious to talk to people about, and you've been very clear, so I'm certainly not trying to change your mind,

• 29:36Tom Bilyeu?

  is what is that base assumption that people have about fundamentally the nature of AI? What will that mean for the future? I don't know. I don't know what the fundamental fundamental nature of AI in terms of goal orientation and a desire to achieve its outcome is. But to me, everything hinges on that. If it gets smarter, and if it has its own desires, we could be in trouble. But again, fundamentally, I think that-

• 30:02Speaker 02

  Could be.

• 30:03Tom Bilyeu?

  Having-

• 30:04Speaker 02

  I just, one thing I go back to a lot in my arguments when I'm talking to people is like, we have as a species had the ability to eradicate all human life on this planet. We've had it for about 60 years. Still haven't done it. Like, we make sure that that is under the control of systems that won't do it likely. You see what I'm saying? It's like-

• 30:29Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, yeah, where you and I branch is that you keep thinking, your base assumption clearly stated-

• 30:35Speaker 02

  That humans would be in charge, yeah.

• 30:37Tom Bilyeu?

  Yep, humans are always going to maintain control. My only thing is, and again, for me, this is just a question mark, will humans be able to control it? I don't know. We both end up in an optimistic stance. I'm certainly not trying to convince you, and you have been exceedingly clear.

• 30:52Speaker 02

  Well, you you talk about will humans be able to control it, like, I mean, unless, so ultimately, it comes down to humans, again. If a group of humans has enough power, like a government, to give AI executive authority, that might turned out to be a bad idea, but it's humans doing that to humans. It's humans saying, I'm going to give AI this power, these powers, and then maybe it backfires. But it's ultimately, it's humans who make that decision. The only way I can see for your scenario to play out is, I think, correct me if I'm wrong, you're talking about an AI that's so smart, it can manipulate people into doing what it wants without ever having executive action. It says like it can convince this guy that he should do this thing, it can convince that guy that he should do that thing, it

• 31:37Speaker 02

  can, it can talk you into this and you into that. And, you know, now you, now it's basically using humans as its executive action by being able to convince them of things. Okay. So that's, that's an interesting concept. I like it. But then you're just talking, in my view, what you have here is an AI politician. You have an AI that's trying to convince large groups of people of an ideology that it has devised that it thinks would be good. And if it can do that, why would it need destructive, why would it need destructive executive authority? If it's, if you, if you make an AI and you say like, I want to make the world better. And it's like, okay, I convinced everybody to share. You know, that's the quickest

• 32:22Speaker 02

  way to do it. I don't know.

• 32:27Speaker 01

  Taking a quick break, but there's more with Andy Weir when we come back.

• 32:32Tom Bilyeu?

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• 33:15Tom Bilyeu?

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• 33:36Speaker 03

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• 34:05Tom Bilyeu?

  All right, we're back. Let's get into it. All right. Going back to space travel, which is something that you're super passionate about. Given AI, given the advancements that we are likely to see there, let's say in the next 25 years. How, as the person who wrote The Martian, how optimistic are you that we're actually going to get to Mars, start colonizing it? Do you really see that as a thing that we'll see in our lifetimes?

• 34:34Speaker 02

  I think it's only a matter of time before we go to Mars. I also think people underestimate this one aspect of like space travel, which is that we think of space travel as like this endeavor that we have to do. But it's proven to be economically unnecessary, right? It's hard to make an economic case for why we should go into space. You can make a survival of the human race case. You can do that. The only economic approach I've ever come up with for space is simple tourism. Right? So there's nothing, there's nothing you can mine on the moon or Mars that you can't find easier on Earth. Or, and if you did want to mine it or collect those resources, we are now in an era where you could do it all remotely.

• 35:20Speaker 02

  Like you don't need to figure out a way to keep squishy humans alive and make sure that they can get back. Right? So, but if the technology comes about to make it so that it just doesn't cost that much to go, then people will do it just because humans have a wanderlust. So one analogy I like to use is saddles. Like a modern saddle that you put on a horse is the most. I mean, people in the 1800s would kill for a modern saddle. It's made out of synthetic materials that don't rot or don't have any problem with getting wet. It's made to be comfortable for the animal, made to be comfortable for the person. It'll last basically forever, incredibly safe.

• 36:02Speaker 02

  It, you know, it just has all these features that they just didn't have in the 1800s. In the 1800s, everybody needed a saddle and everybody used it. Nowadays, it's, you know, hobbyists, enthusiasts, some athletes, you know, stuff like that. But it's not a thing that's a core aspect of, of human need anymore. It's not a basic thing that we all need. Like if no one was able to ride horses anymore for the rest of time, it would not have a huge effect on human society anymore. Right? It would have if that happened in the 1800s, but now it doesn't matter. Yet, if you look at a modern saddle, it is this incredible feat of engineering.

• 36:40Speaker 02

  But you gotta bear in mind, every aspect of that was not invented by a national push to make a better saddle. Right? Not like we have the, you know, National Aeronautics and Saddle Administration. Right? We didn't go out of our way to invent carbon fibers to make lighter saddles. We didn't invent nylon to make better saddle straps. We didn't invent computers so that we could model straddles, saddles, so we could, you know, make them better. We didn't invent 3D scanning so that we could scan horses to make better saddles. We didn't invent any of those things for the saddle industry. But they made use of the technology that was developed for other reasons to make better saddles. But I think that's what's going to happen in the space industry.

• 37:23Speaker 02

  I think what's going to happen is, yes, there are companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin and a bunch of others that are going out of their way to try to do space travel stuff. But I think even if those companies didn't exist, the technology would come about through the normal process of like, you know, profit-driven technological development that ends up being really good for space travel. Like somebody be like, You know, we end up, you know, jet engines end up breaking down a lot because the heat, heat warping of the turbine fans is what causes metal fatigue. And if we could find a way to make that heat warping not happen, we might be able to save a lot of money on

• 38:06Speaker 02

  maintenance. And so they do a bunch of research and they're like, okay, we figured out a material that won't heat warp anymore. And we're going to make our jet engines out of that. Then me email somebody, the rocket industry is like, huh? I could make a rocket engine out of that that won't melt. You know, that's, that's the kind of way I see that the, that space advancement in space technology will go. It's like secondary accidental benefits to the industry.

• 38:33Tom Bilyeu?

  Does, um, what's going on in SpaceX?

• 38:36Speaker 02

  And then once it becomes cheap enough, once it becomes cheap enough because of all this other, um, because of all these technologies that humanity invents for other reasons, making it so you can put together a rocket, then, then once, once it's cheap enough for like ordinary people to go to space, people will just do it because humanity has, I believe, a genetic desire to spread out. Um, I think that's actually an evolved trait. So that like one, you know, one flood in one valley doesn't wipe out our species. That makes it, we, we have a desire to fan out into other biomes and go everywhere. And that makes it pretty much impossible for us to be rendered extinct, even by things like, uh, you know,

• 39:18Speaker 02

  the near extinction event about 75,000 years ago. Killed a lot of stuff. Didn't kill us because we were all over the place.

• 39:26Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, that, that was going to be the button that I pushed on is given what's going on with Blue Origin, with SpaceX. Uh, you have a generation of kids that grew up wildly inspired by the space program landing on the moon. Uh, they were, you know, sort of bothered by the fact that the space program stalled out, uh, and decided that they were going to do something about it. Do you think that, I mean, it seems like it's already driven some pretty radical advancements, given that Elon Musk and SpaceX now account for 95% of the tonnage globally that goes up into space. Um, given that Elon has said that he is going to build a colony on Mars. I think Bezos has his eyes all over the moon.

• 40:12Tom Bilyeu?

  Whether they have a purely economic reason to do it or not, given that they have so much money and in the case of SpaceX have built a truly thriving self-sustaining economic engine, do you not think that will lead to these breakthroughs coming at a faster pace?

• 40:31Speaker 02

  It could certainly help a lot. Like there, again, I always go back to the aeronautical industry. It's like things go really fast at first. Um, once, so the, the true invention of SpaceX wasn't so much rocketry, it was how to make money on rocketry. Cause all the other thing, um, you know, the other companies that were contractors to make, you know, spacecraft for the US government and for European Space Agency and so on, they were not interested in driving costs down or competing with other companies. They were just interested in getting the job done. So what SpaceX's real innovation was they said they had an obsessive focus on driving down the price so that they could take over

• 41:14Speaker 02

  the market. Cause no, before SpaceX, nobody looked at spacecraft as a market.

• 41:24Speaker 02

  But what SpaceX saw is that there is a total addressable market for spacecraft. It, the customers are almost 100% governments and with the occasional very large company that needs satellites like communication companies. So it's a very small number of potential customers, but they saw that it, this is a possible for-profit business if you do it right and you take over the market and almost all of the total addressable market goes into your hands. And I think that's what SpaceX did. But something like that can't survive. Um, a business I don't think can survive if it relies entirely on discretionary government funding.

• 42:08Speaker 02

  And which is what the vast majority of SpaceX's money comes from is like space entities and like NASA, ETH, JAXA, that sort of thing. I just, if you don't provide a service to consumers, I don't think your business is going to survive for very long. So that's why, and I think Musk knows that, and I think that's why he's trying really hard to find a way to drive the price down to the point that he can have direct consumers, like so that you, Tom, could go into space. You've got a lot of money, but someone else who doesn't have that much money could go into space, you know?

• 42:47Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, what about like what he's doing with mining of asteroids? Do you think there's anything there? Is that pipe dreamy?

• 42:53Speaker 02

  I don't, I mean, it's not pipe dreamy. I think the only real benefit to mining asteroids is you're not doing ecological damage on Earth. So, but being environmentally conscious rarely pays off financially. So I think unless, again, you have government large asset play, I don't think that's worthwhile. So if a government wants to say, hey, we want a bunch of, you know, lithium, but we don't want to strip mine, you know, some location on Earth because that's unpopular. So people elected this government to be environmentally conscious. So we are going to help fund methods of acquiring lithium in a way that doesn't disturb Earth's environment, then there's a potential market for that, but not a very

• 43:37Speaker 02

  big one because economics always finds the easiest, cheapest way to do things. And then morality finds a way to justify it after the fact. And so eventually it's like, I mean, some of the most human rights activist people I know are the people who own iPhones, right? I mean, like your phone was made with slave labor. Why aren't you worried about them? Well, that's different. Like, yeah, because morality always finds a way to justify the economics. It doesn't work in the other direction very often.

• 44:07Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, that is distressingly insightful. What is, what is something going on?

• 44:12Speaker 02

  If you want to get even darker, I mean, humanity only suddenly realized slavery was bad after the Industrial Revolution, when they no longer really needed slaves to do math production anymore.

• 44:23Tom Bilyeu?

  Oof.

• 44:24Speaker 02

  How's that for an observation?

• 44:26Tom Bilyeu?

  That's rough.

• 44:27Speaker 02

  Like, 10,000 years of slavery in every human culture everywhere. And it was only about mid 1800s when suddenly humanity's like, ah, no, this is wrong. Well, what else happened right around that time? The ability to do these things without slaves.

• 44:44Tom Bilyeu?

  Wow.

• 44:45Speaker 02

  And cheaper and more efficiently so that it was no longer an economic need. Yeah. Though I have my dark, I, I, I, I'm not just a pure Pollyanna. I have my dark observations too.

• 44:57Tom Bilyeu?

  That's amazing. Well, I think a big part of what everybody loves is the optimistic side that comes through in your writing very, very aggressively. Uh, swinging us back to the optimistic side. What, what is happening right now that excites you the most in terms of like technology? Uh, whether it's AI, whether it's space travel, like what's got that thing that really has your imagination spinning?

• 45:19Speaker 02

  Boring though it is, self-driving cars. That's, that's the thing that I'm really excited about. I think people are all dramatically underestimating the tremendous impact it's going to have on our society. Once we get self-driving cars perfected. To the point that they are, um, legal everywhere, affordable by a typical consumer and, and just found everywhere. Um, I just don't think people fully understand how much it's going to affect our society. So consider some things. First off, some downside. The entire driving industry is going to go away. There won't be any more truckers, cabbies, no, that stuff. Or truckers will really be more like directors.

• 46:00Speaker 02

  They'll be like a person who sits in the truck and then makes sure that the cargo is received on the other end or something like that. Or, or there might even, what used to be a trucker might be a guy who's stationed somewhere to make sure that the truck delivered, whatever. So you're not going to have any of that anymore. Uh, the next thing is you're not going to have to park anything anymore. Cars will just drop you off and then go away. You don't have to park a car anymore. Something like, what, 20% of the surface area of any given city is parking. That's all just gonna not be necessary anymore. Think of, I don't know where you live, but are you in a city? What, where do you live? LA, yeah.

• 46:42Speaker 02

  LA. Think of how many parking structures, parking lots, parking garages, street side parking, all of that stuff, gone and, and used for other things. Okay, next up, fifty to sixty thousand people a year won't die in drunk driving accidents. Because you can be as drunk as you want when you go home.

• 47:03Speaker 02

  Next up, um, cities are, uh, with the transition is gonna be rough because everybody that relies on driving, like cabs, trucks, all that stuff like that are gonna be against allowing self-driving cars. Because they're gonna be like, this is eradicating my profession. I don't like it. Cities, very powerful civic entities like Los Angeles, for instance, are gonna be against it. Because LA derives over a hundred million dollars in revenue per year out of traffic citation. Get rid of those, it just lose, I have traffic and parking citation. LA did, uh, I remember it was about ten years ago, LA was, um,

• 47:42Speaker 02

  their fire departments wanted GPS, um, systems in their trucks so they could more quickly get to, you know, emergencies. Uh, the city said, we don't have the budget for that. And then in that same year, the city replaced all the parking meters with automated parking meters that can alert parking enforcement if you save even one minute over the, uh, the time.

• 48:05Speaker 02

  And that cost them a bunch of money. But see, that's a revenue stream. Every entity will always orient itself around the revenue stream, no matter what it's supposed to be originally. So cities are not gonna like the idea of just losing all that revenue. And they still have to maintain the roads, right? So it's not like they're losing a cost or an expense, they're just losing the revenue. But getting past that, because like I said, economics always wins. We've seen the taxi cab industry already get destroyed by Uber and Lyft, right?

• 48:35Speaker 02

  Now, moving on, why would you own a car? Why wouldn't you just subscribe to a car service? Is just like Uber, but driverless cars. If it's quick to, I mean, eventually owning a car will be kinda like owning a horse. It'll be like, you don't, you don't need that.

• 48:54Speaker 02

  And I mean, you might want your own private car because you don't want the stink of someone else's been in your backseat. Okay, there's still be driverless, right? You just get in. And then for people who don't own cars, they're like, people in a hundred years are going to think it's absolutely absurd that we dedicated about a third of the interior space of our house to a place that stores a car. Like garages are like a big chunk. If you're if you're just living in a suburban neighborhood, your garage is like a third or a quarter of the total surface area of your house. Like now, people will be like, you're going to see a lot of family rooms all of a sudden, you know?

• 49:32Speaker 02

  Why, why, why own a car? Why maintain a car? Why get a driver's license? Why would there be a driver's license? Do we need a DMV? Yeah, somebody's got to register the electric cars, but that's a business thing. That's like a, that's kind of like registering your freight train. You know, it's like a thing where the business talks to, talks to the government to get the permits necessary. It's not a thing that affects the layman. No more cars, no more driver's licenses, no more automotive insurance. A lot of people in the insurance industry, which is very powerful in America, not going to like the idea of people no longer needing insurance. Because of course, the responsibility for car crashes won't be on the person who was in the car. It'll be on the company that made the car.

• 50:17Tom Bilyeu?

  No, it's going to be wild like that.

• 50:19Speaker 02

  Massive, massively disruptive.

• 50:23Speaker 02

  And in a good way, for the most part. Also, also for the environment, it'll be good too, because people, there'll just be fleets of electric cars. You won't need to be able to go hundreds of mile. It'll be like, okay, there's an electric car. I'll come pick you up, drop you off, and then it'll go pick someone else up and it'll go recharge when it has to. You don't need gasoline anymore.

• 50:47Speaker 02

  Okay, if you're gonna do a long haul trip, maybe you do. I don't know.

• 50:50Tom Bilyeu?

  Hmm. Yeah, that'll be interesting, especially to see if truly electric cars can get off the grid right now, which they're still tied to that. But whatever, we'll assume that problem will get solved. I want to go to, so I know your latest book, it's my understanding from things you've said publicly, that your new book integrates AI in some substantive way. Without talking specifically about your book, what made you want to tackle the issue of AI?

• 51:18Speaker 02

  So, full disclosure, that was the book I was working on, but I shelved it. I backburnered it and I'm working on a completely different project now.

• 51:26Speaker 02

  What made me want to do it was it's just a thing that I thought was a cool concept. This was before ChatGPT came out. This was before all the AI stuff exploded. And so I was just like goofing off and it was an idea I had and it was novel and unique. Honestly, part of the reason I've chucked or I backburnered this book is because now it's in the public consciousness so heavily, it would seem like hopping on a trend. So I, there are going to be a million science fiction books about AI over the next few years and I don't want to just be one of those. So I'm like, well, when I was working on it, it was a unique concept, but by the time this comes out, it won't be. So I'm gonna do something else. It's just gonna become too saturated.

• 52:10Speaker 02

  So I was a little bummed, but yeah, so I actually decided to get rid of it. But it was my usual approach of like, okay, I'm gonna look at this realistically, not like, yeah, there's no rogue AI that tries to take over the world or kill everybody, right? It was just like how people are using AI is that matter?

• 52:27Tom Bilyeu?

  Hmm. Now, are you talking themes or anything about the new book?

• 52:33Speaker 02

  No, the new book, I'm keeping that close to the dust now too. So sorry, not, I'm gonna talk about that yet.

• 52:39Tom Bilyeu?

  As a huge fan, whatever you're working on, I absolutely cannot wait to see what happens.

• 52:46Tom Bilyeu?

  Where can people follow along with you until that next one comes out?

• 52:50Speaker 02

  I mean, I have social media, Facebook is Andy Weir and Twitter is hashtag, or sorry, X is Andy Weir author. Sorry, I didn't mean to deadname you Twitter.

• 53:04Speaker 02

  Yeah, but I'm not like crazy, super active on those. It's just when I have an observation like, dang it, why we had two bottle episodes of Severance in a row, then I'll post that sort of content.

• 53:15Tom Bilyeu?

  I love it. Well, Andy, I can't thank you enough for joining me today. And everybody at home, if you have not already, be sure to subscribe. And until next time, my friends, be legendary. Take care. Peace. Let's talk about a pattern that is guaranteed to be killing your progress. You know what you need to do. You need consistent nutrition. We all do. You need vitamins, probiotics, greens. We all know that we should be doing more of it. When your morning gets chaotic, you skip it. When you travel, you skip it. When your routine breaks, everything tends to break. And that inconsistency compounds against you every single day. AG1 is designed to solve the execution problem. One scoop, eight ounces of water, and you're done. You're getting 75 plus ingredients, vitamins and minerals, pre and probiotics,

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• 54:31Speaker 03

  In a world where everyone drives distracted, danger lurks ahead. Drivers swerve. Collisions litter the shoulders. Chances are taken and lives lost. They're driven by a compulsion, a compulsion to respond.

• 54:51Speaker 03

  Sounds like a movie. Unfortunately, it's our reality. Eyes on the road, not on your phone. A message from the Virginia DMV.