#730 What is going on with the price of Bitcoin?! w/ Dylan LeCLair

Dylan LeClair is the Senior Market Analyst at UTXO Management, a digital asset fund investing in the analog to digital transformation of money and the emergent financial system. In this conversation, we discuss bitcoin, on-chain metrics, market structure, and what to expect from the rest of the bitcoin bull market. ======================= Mode, UK Fintech app, allows you to buy, earn and grow Bitcoin, all in one app. Not only is it an easy and safe way to buy and hold Bitcoin, with Mode you can shop and receive up to 10% Bitcoin Cashback for FREE from its growing list of online partner brands. Available on the App Store and Google Play. Download Mode at modeapp.com and enjoy 0% trading fees on all buys and sells until Dec 31, 2021. Only available in the UK. ======================= If you haven’t started building your crypto portfolio on Okcoin, there’s no better time. They’re one of the fastest growing global exchanges around and they have some promotions happening right now to help even more people be part of the future of finance. If you have an account already, you can split $100 in BTC with a friend when you invite them to sign up for Okcoin if they buy $100 of crypto in the first month. The more friends who sign up and buy, the more BTC you get. And I always recommend dollar-cost averaging as a way for investors to have more control over their average price when building their portfolio. Now you can automate dollar-cost averaging with completely fee-free daily, weekly, or monthly recurring buys on Okcoin until November 1. That’s no fees at all on your purchases until the holidays. Get started on the web or on their new super easy-to-use app at okcoin.com/pomp ======================= My friends at Coin Cloud will give you $50 in FREE Bitcoin when you buy $200 or more at any of their 4,000+ machines. Use promo code POMP to get your free Bitcoin. For details or to find your nearest Coin Cloud machine, visit www. Coin. Cloud/Pomp Coin Cloud has been serving customers since 2014 and has established itself as the world's leading digital currency machine (DCM) operator. More than just a Bitcoin ATM, Coin Cloud machines make it easy to buy and sell Bitcoin and 30+ other digital assets with cash. To find your local ATM and get $50 in free Bitcoin, visit www. Coin. Cloud/Pomp =======================

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Dylan Leclerc is the Senior Market Analyst at UTXO Management, a digital asset fund investing in the analog to digital transformation of money and the emergent financial system. In this conversation, we discuss Bitcoin, on-chain metrics, market structure, and what to expect from the rest of the Bitcoin bull market. I really enjoyed this conversation with Dylan, and I hope you do as well. Before we get into this episode, though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. First up is Mode. Listen up. If you're a UK Bitcoin investor, this is for you. It's a brand new sponsor, so I want you guys to pay attention. This episode is brought to you by UK fintech app Mode. Mode is an

• 0:45Anthony Pompliano?

  app that allows you to buy, earn, and grow Bitcoin effortlessly. Not only is it an easy and safe way to buy and hold Bitcoin, Mode also allows you to pay and receive up to 10% Bitcoin cash back for free from its growing list of online partner brands. That's right, they've got cash back for free from a growing list of online partner brands. For a limited period of time, Mode is offering 0% trading fees on all Bitcoin buys and sells. That's right. You can buy and sell Bitcoin and pay no trading fees. The offer ends at the end of the year, December 31st, 2021. So hurry up and download the app now. I have to say, I think the company behind the app is pretty impressive. Somebody who's willing to give 10% Bitcoin cash back and also zero trading fees through the end of the year. You should

• 1:29Anthony Pompliano?

  probably check it out. They are FCA-registered and are listed on the LSE. They chose to hold Bitcoin on their balance sheet. They're piloting a Bitcoin payroll product to pay UK employees in Bitcoin as well. UK friends, I'm telling you, if they're going all in on Bitcoin, you should be paying attention. I recommend you go check out Mode right now. Their app is available on the App Store and Google Play. You can download the app now and start buying Bitcoin with 0% trading fees today. Mode, M-O-D-E. Go check it out. The offer ends December 31st, 2021. Go let me know what you think in the UK. Next up is CoinCloud. Did you know you can buy and sell crypto with cash? I want to introduce you to my friends at CoinCloud. More than just a Bitcoin ATM company, they're the world's leading digital currency

• 2:13Anthony Pompliano?

  machine operator. They've been around since 2014 and have thousands of machines across the country. You can buy and sell Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Cardano, and over 30 other digital assets. No connecting bank accounts, no long waits. And if you've got questions, you can speak to a live US-based customer support rep 24/7. I've had a lot of Bitcoin ATM companies reach out, but CoinCloud is the only team I've found that's doing it right. They put together a special offer for listeners of this show. You can get $50 in free Bitcoin when you buy $200 or more at any CoinCloud machine and use promo code POMP. Again, $50 free Bitcoin, buy $200 or more at any machine, use promo code POMP. You can find your local ATM at coin.clopes.com/pomp, coin.clopes.com/pomp, and use promo

• 2:54Anthony Pompliano?

  code POMP to get that free $50 worth of Bitcoin when you purchase $200 or more at the machine. Last but not least is OKCoin. If you haven't started building your crypto portfolio on OKCoin, there's no better time. They're one of the fastest-growing global exchanges around, and they have some promotions happening right now to help even more people be part of the future of finance. If you have an amount already, excuse me, an account, account, account, not an amount. If you have an account already, you can split $100 in Bitcoin with a friend when you invite them to sign up for OKCoin if they buy $100 of crypto in the first month. The more friends who sign up and buy, the more Bitcoin you get. And I always recommend dollar-cost averaging is a way for investors to have more control over their average price when building their portfolio. Dollar-cost averaging,

• 3:36Anthony Pompliano?

  superpower. Now you can automate dollar-cost averaging with completely fee-free daily, weekly, or monthly recurring buys on OKCoin. That's no fees at all on purchases until the holidays. Get started on the web or on their new, super easy-to-use app, okcoin.com/pomp, okcoin.com/pomp. Go check it out. All right, let's get into this episode with Dylan. Hope you guys enjoy this one.

• 3:58Speaker 01

  Anthony Pompliano runs POMP Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of POMP Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by POMP or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.

• 4:22Anthony Pompliano?

  Dylan, what's going on, man? How are you?

• 4:23Speaker 02

  Yo, what's up, guys? I think I joined just at the right time.

• 4:28Speaker 02

  Gaslighting is unbelievable.

• 4:30Anthony Pompliano?

  It's pretty crazy, right? I mean, like, we literally are watching people explain that in order to deal with inflation for Thanksgiving, you shouldn't buy a turkey. Or that it's somehow your fault, or that inflation is good. I mean, it's insane. What do you think about all this?

• 4:44Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's just gaslighting. It's every other reason for inflation, other than they just printed, you know, 30% of the money supply. And all the credentialed economists and academics were wrong, and all the anons and, you know, cartoon characters on the internet were right. And it's like, maybe that's, you know, saying something.

• 5:01Anthony Pompliano?

  The other piece of this that I read the other day that absolutely blew me away was, I forget who tweeted it, but somebody was like, no one saw inflation coming. Like, it surprised all the economists. And there was a whole article about it. And I saw a bunch of people dunking on it, obviously. And they were like, what are you talking about? Like, literally, the memes were the Fed chairman, like, literally printing money with music behind it while they were doing it. Like, the entire internet knew this was coming. It just somehow, in these academic or kind of theoretical circles, people thought that it wasn't going to happen, I guess. I don't really know.

• 5:33Speaker 02

  Yeah, and it's a global thing, too. I mean, like, we're seeing, you know, the lira is crashing. I don't know if you were talking about earlier, the lira is crashing 12, 15% daily, right? It's unbelievable.

• 5:44Anthony Pompliano?

  When you look at the Turkish lira, walk me through how you think about Bitcoin in relationship to that. Obviously, Bitcoin continues to hit all-time high over all-time high with the Turkish lira as like the denominating currency. Does that play into anything around Bitcoin adoption or kind of price movements? Or do you think of it as, no, that's just kind of the outlier situation, and it's really because the fiat currency is devaluing, and you stick to US dollar denomination to your analysis?

• 6:12Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, I think it's huge. I mean, obviously, Bitcoin is a global asset, and, you know, some people may not have access to Bitcoin or like the technology that, you know, we have in the US. But, you know, a simple smartphone is accessible for, you know, billions of people around the world. And traditionally, like, you know, I think the old, I saw a tweet today, the older generations kind of favor gold. And, you know, that's holding up better than the lira. But you know increasingly the younger generations want Bitcoin and it makes sense and you know the USD volatility like oh Bitcoin was at sixty nine thousand and now it's fifty seven. Uh but when your when your currency is crashing fifty percent a year, you don't really care. I mean, it's it's a lifeboat for you and your family and your savings. So.

• 6:55Speaker 02

  Um you know, the Lira and I think every other, basically every other currency besides. Uh the dollar and some of the main currencies like Michael Michael Saylor talks about. Um are all going to continue to collapse against the dollar and the dollar will continue to collapse against real, you know, hard assets. Uh I think that's going to be, you know, continued trend. So. Uh even if there is volatility in Bitcoin, uh it's gonna it's gonna serve you a lot better than than holding fiat.

• 7:18Anthony Pompliano?

  What's going on with Bitcoin's price drop recently? We went from sixty nine thousand to under fifty eight thousand. What what's going on there?

• 7:25Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's just, uh I mean, it's just the volatility. It's, you know, we talked about the derivatives, uh and we talked about, you know, I think. The dollar against these other basket of forward currencies is strengthening. So. Uh if you're looking at like the the Dixie, DXY, it's a dollar uh currency index against a bunch of other fiats. Uh and and you know, a good argument is like, yeah, it doesn't really matter because all fiats are devaluing. Uh but uh with the dollar as a well-reserved currency, uh there is kind of. Basically, everybody's implicitly short the dollar. There's so much dollar debt out there. Um and so when you see the dollar uh strengthening against other fiats, regardless if. Uh you know, CPI inflation or the money supply is expanding in the US, which it is. Uh you know, CPI at six percent, thirty year highs, regardless of that.

• 8:06Speaker 02

  Uh if the dollar is tightening against other foreign currencies, uh you know, financial uh financial conditions are tightening and and so that's. That's kind of when we see, you know, we haven't seen it really yet in legacy markets, but. This is kind of what leads to uh two thousand eight events, you know, March twenty twenty events. I don't think we see a a spike that. You know, with that much magnitude or that dramatic, but uh. You know, it could potentially be a catalyst for some sort of risk off, and I think Bitcoin is as a. is reacting to that in a way.

• 8:34Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, and when you think about what we're watching, Jerome Powell was just renominated or is going to be renominated as the Fed Reserve Chairman. Is that just a continuation and pretty bullish in terms of we're going to continue to see interest rate manipulation, quantitative easing, asset prices will go to the moon? Or do you think that there's the possibility that even though we have the same person running kind of Federal Reserve, there may actually be some difference in the policies that they implement?

• 9:03Speaker 02

  Yeah, I think it's more of the same. I don't think, I honestly don't even think Powell or anyone else really matters. I mean, I don't know what he's doing. Why, why aren't you just retiring and going on an island somewhere? That I don't understand, but yeah, I mean, they really don't have a choice and they're going to go up there and jawbone and pretend that they're switching some sort of policy, but even now, I mean, like tightening or, you know, tapering is really just decreasing the rate of how fast they're expanding the balance sheet. It's not even tapering in the sense of what it used to be a decade ago. So more of the same. Rates can't rise. They have to remain negative in real terms or else the whole system implodes and they won't say that, but that's the truth.

• 9:44Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah. And then when you think about Bitcoin, we were talking earlier, the number of Bitcoin addresses with at least 0.01 Bitcoin in the balance hit an all time high over 9.2 million now about 9.245 million. How do you look at something like that in terms of the overall picture? You know, we estimate that it's either new people coming in or just more and more people stacking sats and kind of dollar cost averaging. But is that an important metric to you or is it less important?

• 10:12Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, I think that's just kind of the trend over the last decade is that this thing is just becoming distributed in more and more hands. And while addresses isn't the perfect measure because, you know, I can have, I can have 100 different UTXOs all in different addresses. And honestly, for privacy, best practices, that's optimal. And so, you know, you can't really see that it's, you know, one entity that has multiple UTXOs. But essentially, you know, starting with Satoshi and then with Hal Finney, and then, you know, two, three, and now millions of people, you know, seem to be billions of people all holding Bitcoin. It's just basically becoming more and more distributed and there's less sats per person to go around. And so, you know, that trend, you know, 0.1 Bitcoin per, you know, address, one Bitcoin per address, I kind of expect that.

• 10:57Speaker 02

  Just continue to hockey stick up until the right.

• 10:59Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And then what what else are you watching right now? When you see these price drawdowns, is there one or two metrics that you're, you know, you wake up every day during a price drawdown, you're like, this is the first thing I'm checking?

• 11:09Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, like, you know, this kind of chop day to day volatility, it's not something that that worries me too much. I mean, I checked the derivative stuff because, you know, those dislocations can turn just this, you know, this little pullback to something more drastic and we're not really seeing that. So, you know, ranging around fifty, sixty thousand, I mean, I was of the opinion that we would we'd be higher now, but it's not something that that I'm worried about at all because, you know, I'm I'm just holding the asset and, you know, if it takes a little longer, then that's fine, fine with me. It's not something that, as a as a convicted holler, stressed out a little bit. I would like to see, you know, higher prices because of those those calls I had in the summer, but, you know, it is what it is.

• 11:49Anthony Pompliano?

  What were the calls again? What what's the end of November?

• 11:52Speaker 02

  It was, yeah, it was December hundred K calls. And so I've I will admittedly say I've trimmed up a little bit of those, but, you know, bottom in the summer when there was no hope. And so I did I did well, but, you know, could have could have done better on them.

• 12:05Anthony Pompliano?

  Are you changing your opinion as to the bull market or where price could go over the next couple of months?

• 12:13Speaker 02

  No, I mean, honestly, if anything, it's just more of the opposite in the sense that, you know, the longer we just chop and consolidate, the longer I think the the market has in terms of in terms of months. And I think potentially the higher we go, you know, the more price just kind of like fifty K, even like, you know, if we go to fifty K today, people are going to be like, you know, it's going to be the end of the world. And think about just how different the sentiment is and how, you know, the market structure as as more and more people allocate to it. You know, this is kind of their benchmark in terms of in terms of like their performance and their percent gains. So the longer that Bitcoin just kind of consolidates, the more normal that fifty, sixty K becomes, and the more capital that kind of gets allocated to it. So if anything, the The longer, the longer the better.

• 12:57Anthony Pompliano?

  And when we see people, let's say we did go down to $50,000, is it the same kind of mechanism or sentiment we saw around $30,000 where people were starting screaming, "We're going to 20, we're going to 20," and then obviously we never went and we kind of came back up to 60 again? Is that kind of what you would expect if we really dipped lower than we already are?

• 13:17Speaker 02

  Yeah, I think, I mean, I think, you know, big round numbers are definitely, they have some market, you know, significance, but really just with Bitcoin, you know, the price is set by the hodlers and stackers of last resort. And so whatever that price point is where, you know, the sellers are gone, they're exhausted, you know, absolutely scarce asset, there's only, you can only sell Bitcoin so much until you have none. And there's that we know that there are buyers around the world that will be a buyer at any price. So, you know, whatever that price point is where the sellers, you know, are exhausted and then, you know, have only one place to go and that's up. I think, I think it's, you know, somewhere around this range, but, you know, we'll see, you know, we just know the long-term trend is up until the right.

• 13:59Anthony Pompliano?

  Talk to me about Bitcoin City down in El Salvador. Obviously, we saw President Bukele really, really pushing kind of this idea of building an entire city issuing the Bitcoin-backed bonds. What was your general thoughts when we saw the announcement?

• 14:13Speaker 02

  I think it's definitely, it's definitely optimistic and it's definitely exciting. You know, constructing a city from scratch is definitely ambitious. We'll see how that goes, but I think the Bitcoin-backed bonds and kind of a bond Bitcoin structure is actually pretty, it's pretty interesting in terms of, you know, kind of a fixed income, from a fixed income standpoint. I mean, I, I don't want 6.5% yields and for the most part, I probably would just buy Bitcoin. But, you know, for a lot of these, you know, maybe if you're a fund manager, I don't know if they're going to be allowed to allocate to this institutional capital, but I know there are a lot of Bitcoiners that would, you know, fork over some money to secure citizenship, secure some upside with Bitcoin and, you know, kind of just fund something that they, they believe in.

• 14:58Speaker 02

  And it's really exciting just from a, you know, a bigger picture standpoint, like the jurisdictional arbitrage, the kind of sovereign individual thesis where, where nations, where governments are competing for citizens and competing for capital, kind of the opposite trend that we've seen where, you know, governments are trying to, you know, almost trap their, their citizens, trap the capital. It's, it's exciting. And I think that's what, that's what Bitcoin kind of brings to the world and seeing, you know, these first dominoes fall. is really, really exciting.

• 15:25Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, what's fascinating about it is if there are institutions that want to buy bonds, but they can't. And so this is a way for, or I'm sorry, they have to buy bonds. They can't buy Bitcoin. This is a way for them to buy bonds, but get some underlying Bitcoin exposure, very similar to a bunch of folks who were allocating to MicroStrategy in their unsecured notes, right? You could basically get some exposure there, or you could buy MicroStrategy stock and get some indirect exposure to Bitcoin, almost like this tracking stock for a period of time. Is your thought process that like, that's really who's going to be buying this? Or do you think it's going to be Bitcoiners? Like, do you think it will be more folks that understand Bitcoin and they want to see this happen? And therefore they'll go ahead and they'll buy this, even though they could buy Bitcoin if they wanted to?

• 16:06Speaker 02

  Yeah, I think it'll probably be a mix of both. I mean, I haven't I've talked with some people, but haven't, you know, had too many high level discussions on this more just kind of gauging the sentiment on Twitter and and reading the official kind of block stream posts and, and what, you know, B. Kelly is saying, but I think, you know, from, from a kind of like a securitization standpoint and like a digital asset standpoint, I think maybe that's a little overhyped when people say, just to around the word digital asset, like it's kind of a buzzword in a way, but I think like kind of being on native Bitcoin rails with, you know, the liquid network and what it's, I think they're teaming up with Biffinex. I think these notes will probably be trading just like a, you know, another crypto asset.

• 16:50Speaker 02

  And so that's kind of from a, from a, you know, finance or econ lens, it's exciting to see all this kind of unfold because you know, this sort of innovation and I hope it'll be somewhat seamless in the sense that, you know, these things are just trading 24/7, 365, like, you know, these other assets, that's exciting and the ability to, you know, kind of custody these these notes and have a maybe a Bitcoin income stream is pretty cool.

• 17:14Anthony Pompliano?

  Joe, John, what questions you got? Maybe Joe, we'll start with you first.

• 17:16Speaker 03

  Yeah, I'll go. Dylan, what's going on, man? So my question is, as we get closer to the, kind of the end of these cycles and stuff like that, how are you thinking about drawdowns of the past? Do you think they'll continue to be as aggressive? Or do you think as we move further out and kind of the

• 17:33Speaker 03

  in the process of Bitcoin and the rewards get slashed down and so?

• 17:36Speaker 02

  Like that that will see less aggressive drawdowns. Yeah, I think you're going to see volatility probably for for the next decade or however long it takes for for fiat to really cannibalize itself. The volatility, the leverage unwinds, and we're talking now today when we're talking Bitcoin volatility, for the most part, it's native to Bitcoin or crypto. Crypto traders, Bitcoin traders, and they're getting aggressively long or short, and, you know, they get wiped out one way or the other, but that's true for the legacy system as well. And we just started to see those kind of two worlds intertwine the last 24 months, 20 months from, you know, March of 2020.

• 18:12Speaker 02

  And so now I think as Bitcoin gets bigger, as the whole, the whole ecosystem gets a lot bigger and more people and more institutions and more capitalized Bitcoin on their balance sheet. They've become more and more intertwined and and all the, you know, the fiat fractional reserve IOUs on everyone's balance sheet. Along with Bitcoin, that's, you know, BTC USD, USD is the denominator in that equation. I think we're going to see these kind of these violent unwinds and and then reinflations as as the system is is essentially dying, the fiat system while Bitcoin is monetizing. So I think volatility is here to stay, and I think from an investing standpoint, it's it's exciting because, you know, there's there's a lot of opportunity there.

• 18:54Speaker 02

  Bitcoin draws down 50%, and that well, you know, you have a you have a pristine asset that you can collateralize and, you know, use to to lever up or, you know, do all these sort of things to take advantage of it. So I don't think volatility is going away. I think in real terms and purchasing power terms, volatility is decreasing. But, you know, that's that's a broad trend that's happening over over years, over maybe a decade or two. But in terms of fiat volatility, I don't expect it to go away at all.

• 19:22Speaker 04

  John. What's up, Dylan? How are you?

• 19:25Speaker 02

  What's up, John?

• 19:26Speaker 04

  So the last halving was in May of last year, and obviously, we're not going to see another halving until May of 2024. So typically, we kind of see full market after the halving, bear market going kind of almost into the halving. What do we expect to see? Like, do we expect to see the exact same thing that we've seen in recent cycles?

• 19:46Speaker 02

  And how do you think about that? Yeah, I think the halving will probably make, you know, less of a market impact than it than it ever has just because relative to the market, the circulating supply is just not as significant. You know, and the POC subsidy is is cutting from nine hundred to four, four fifty a day. Inflation rates like one point eight percent annualized to, I think, ninety basis points to zero point nine percent around there. So in terms of like, you know, market impact, I think it it still has one, but it's not going to be as significant. I think more more what's driving this now is, you know, the fiat's demise as well as as just kind of the natural, you know, boom and bust and and human psychology.

• 20:28Speaker 02

  Like we saw, you know, somewhat like a, you know, six month and then three month bull and bear cycle. I think, you know, you know, not to expect that over and over again, but I think maybe maybe three years of a bear market and then twelve months of parabolic bull markets, it could happen, but I it's not my base case. And I think more what's driving it is just, I think we've almost hit this like threshold or this this point of no return in terms of Bitcoin adoption. And it's just, it's just kind of, you know, exponentially feeding on itself. And so we'll see that reflected in the price with a lot of volatility. But, you know, I I think that the the halving as a catalyst is not is not nearly as big as it was in twenty twelve, twenty sixteen or twenty twenty.

• 21:09Speaker 02

  Agreed, especially when you think about kind of ninety percent of the supply is already in circulation. Yeah, I think we're hitting that ninety percent threshold in like, I don't know, a month or two. So that, you know, that's going to be a pretty cool landmark.

• 21:20Anthony Pompliano?

  Dylan, when you look at a lot of the on-chain metrics, what's your general sense? Like, when the price draws down like this, is it possible to see a reversal? Like, we started to see some of the dispersion that was happening as price went up from people have been holding for a while. When price draws down, can they almost like head fake a little bit or or like give us like a pump fake? They start actually accumulating more at the lower prices and then we go back up to sixty five, seventy thousand. Then they restart that dispersion or would that be not really something that that you would expect?

• 21:51Speaker 02

  Yeah, I think I think that's, you know, that's fairly accurate. A lot of the on-chain stuff is like showing these these broad Trends that happened over months, over quarters, over years. And then the day to day, hour to hour stuff is just, is just traders wash trading, right? Like, there's a couple million Bitcoin that are sitting on exchanges. And there's hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin in spot and derivatives volume that you have whales that are just trying to accumulate more Bitcoin. And they're, you know, they're driving the price up and down and up and down. But really, what kind of unlocks, you know, these bull and bear markets, what unlocks these, you know, millions of coins of supply that have been dormant for years is higher prices. Right? It's, it's literally the higher prices of a parabolic bull market that, that gets people to, you know, just liquidate a little bit and, and take some off, take some chips off the table.

• 22:32Speaker 02

  And so when price draws down, uh, you kind of see the opposite dynamic and say, hey, I'm not going to sell and, and maybe I'll, I'll allocate a little bit more. And so, um, we started to see that, that profit taking, that distribution phase, uh, as we, you know, hit sixty eight, sixty nine thousand, we started to see that just a little bit. Um, and so, you know, I think that, that has slowed down since then. And so if we just continue to consolidate around, I don't expect bull market profit taking because, you know, we're, we're not seeing a bull market price action. Um, and so from that sense, you know, just more accumulation and it's just like, you know, repeating myself over and over again, but it's like loading that spring up. Um, and, and, you know, the higher, the higher like parabolic reflexive phase of that bull market is, is still yet to come. And, and we'll see that when, when higher prices start to come.

• 23:15Anthony Pompliano?

  How do you think about, uh, timeline on the bull market? We've talked in the past that maybe December isn't the end of the bull market, it could go longer. You still think that?

• 23:24Speaker 02

  Yeah, I do think that. I think, uh, you know, obviously we have to reclaim the all time high, whatever that comes. And then, um, with just how, how Bitcoin trades, like I think eventually, uh, well, there'll be a clean break of sixty, seventy K. Um, and then from there, I think honestly, there, there's probably going to be some gaps upwards. Um, you know, who's, who's a willing seller at seventy four or seventy eight, right? Like, I think, I think a lot of those, those limit orders, the sell orders just get pulled. Um, and I think there's a good chance to just gap. Um, and then from there, probably a hundred thousand is a nice psychological barrier. But, um, you know, I think, I think there's months, months left of, of this bull market. And, and right now, we're not even really seeing bull market price action. It's almost like the bull market, like the, the phase.

• 24:06Speaker 02

  Two of the bull market hasn't really started yet. We're still kind of we're below all time highs. We broke the April all time high, but really not convincingly. It was, you know, just, just briefly. And so, um, I think December is, is, you know, it's definitely not the top unless we see some really significant macro event like, you know, some March 2020 event, but even then, right? Like March 2020, if you're just looking at the chart, uh, you know, ranging around 10,000, it just drops down and then goes way back up and basically a month or two. And then we just kind of see that accumulation until, until the bull market was ready to go, until there was no more supply left. And so that's kind of how I think about it. I think,

• 24:40Speaker 02

  um, you know, eventually we're just going to see a snap upwards, uh, once, uh, the big players have filled their bags and, and they're buying like making a mistake. Um, and so however long that takes and then, and then, you know, it's off to the races and we'll probably have some, some, you know, weeks and months of fun left. And so I think that goes, you know, you know, pretty far into 2022. Uh, it, it, you know, depends on, on what blockchain is looking like. It depends on what price action and sentiment is looking like, but uh, I, I don't think people are ready for how crazy it's going to be when everyone's eyes are on Bitcoin and it's, it's going up days on end.

• 25:12Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah. I mean, it, it could, uh, it could get quite crazy, quite quickly, as we know. Uh, last thing is, um, when you look at the, uh, market, obviously we had the Bitcoin ETF, the futures ETF coming to the market. Does that have any impact on, uh, on price that you think either positively or negatively? Or do you think that's just a coincidence that, uh, it was, uh, approved and gotten to the market around the same time that some of this price action happened?

• 25:38Speaker 02

  Yeah, I think, I mean, it has a marginal impact, um, just with how derivatives are positioned. Um, it kind of increases that at basis premium. So basically, um, kind of the neutral, the neutral like market, uh, the market neutral rate, the risk free rate that you can get by just, um, you know, long, longing spot, shorting futures. Uh, this is more of an institutional move. You're not seeing retailers, uh, retail traders going and shorting futures and long spot to capture a 10% yield. But, you know, for, for an institution, that, that's pretty, that's pretty exciting. That's, that's a good trade for them. So we're seeing, you know, it increases the incentive to go do that. But besides that, um, you know, it's, it's pretty marginal. I think a spot ETF would be. Probably in order of magnitude more, uh, more important to the market. Uh, and so when we get

• 26:21Speaker 02

  that, I don't have a, a good feel for it, but you know, probably sometime in, in 2022, but, uh, you know, a couple of million, a couple of billion dollars of, uh, of open interest added to the CME. Um, you know, it's, it's meaningful. Um, it's not, it's not the biggest driver in the market, but, uh, it makes a difference.

• 26:36Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. Joe, John, you guys got any other, uh, questions?

• 26:39Speaker 02

  Dylan, what's the sentiment out there? Are people getting angry on Twitter or what's the deal? Yeah. I mean, I think, I think a little bit, uh, which is exciting. I mean, I think that's close, the bottoms, you know, must be close because, you know, people are getting, people are getting restless and anxious, anxious. So. What do you think about Odell taking his salary in Bitcoin? About time. I mean, well, we got, we're going to see more, I think. Um, I think it's cool. It's cool seeing the cultural aspect of it. Um, you know, I think, I don't think a lot of the, the Bitcoin haters and the people in the, in the mainstream, uh, media who are kind of, you know, Bitcoin skeptics, uh, for the longest time, were expecting, you know, the cultural side of it to take place. Um, but you're seeing Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Odell, Saquon, uh, and, and definitely a lot more to come. Um, it, it's a pretty cool, it's pretty cool to see it all unfold. And I think it's just a start.

• 27:25Speaker 02

  Great.

• 27:25Anthony Pompliano?

  John, anything else?

• 27:26Speaker 02

  A few hat? You sell that few hat in the store?

• 27:29Anthony Pompliano?

  Oh, you need one of those too?

• 27:31Speaker 02

  I, I may have to cop one of those. He said, I'll take one of everything.

• 27:37Anthony Pompliano?

  Dylan, on Friday, we've got, uh, uh, a bonanza. We're doing like, I don't know, six, seven, 10, 12, maybe 24 hours straight live stream. We're going to have everyone here in the studio on, uh, Black Friday, just see how crazy it can get. So if you're around, you'll have to, uh, come back and, uh, and bullshit with the rest of us.

• 27:57Speaker 02

  I might just swing by. Yeah. I'll be free.

• 28:00Anthony Pompliano?

  All right, man. I appreciate you, uh, you taking the time to do this. Uh, as always, anyone who's not following you on Twitter, uh, they just haven't been paying attention. How are we looking on, uh, on follower count? Let's see here real quick. We're sitting at, uh, oh, 80, oh, you're definitely hitting, uh, 100. Uh, you might hit 100 this month. More tweets out there.

• 28:23Anthony Pompliano?

  Maybe. I mean, 100 K by the end of the, at the end of the month, that puts us in range. What did I say? Uh, 150 K by the end of the year? I think that's, that's bullish, Bob. I think you can do it. I think it's in the bag. As long as you tweet, if you don't tweet, then we're not getting there. But if you tweet, we got it. I'll, I'll post some hoping.

• 28:46Anthony Pompliano?

  Awesome, man. Listen, thank you so much for doing this. We'll, uh, maybe we'll talk to you on Friday. All right. See you guys. Have a good day. Later. See you, Alan. Happy Thanksgiving.