The Equity crew predicts we'll see a lot less VCs in 2024

It's time to brush the dust off of an Equity tradition that stretches back into the years: our predictions episode. As we try to do every year, we brought in a number of voices to ensure that we covered a good amount of ground. And, we went back and vetted our predictions from last year as well, in case you wanted to see how off we were! Who took part? Alex Wilhelm, Mary Ann Azevedo, Kirsten Korosec, and Becca Szkutak. The voices you heard the most on the podcast this year! (A big thanks to Theresa Loconsolo for getting the whole gang together!) We bucketed our predictions into a few categories, including startup trends, media, proptech, AI, and transport. Mary Ann expects venture to continue contracting in personnel terms, Alex wanted to talk about AI at the OS level, Becca had notes on media, and more. There are other themes mixed in as well, but find your headphones and get ready for some Hot Takes, yeah? That is a wrap on Equity in 2023. We recorded something around 150 episodes, racked up seven-figures worth of downloads, oodles of streams, and more. But most importantly, we got to spend time with you. Thank you, for being you. Hugs, and more soon! Connect with Equity on X and Threads @EquityPod, and keep up with all of TechCrunch's podcasts @TechCrunchPods on TikTok. For episode transcripts and more, head to Equity’s Simplecast website. Equity drops at 7 a.m. PT every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, so subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts, Overcast, Spotify and all the casts. TechCrunch also has a great show on crypto, a show that interviews founders and more! Credits: Equity is produced by Theresa Loconsolo with editing by Kell. Bryce Durbin is our Illustrator. We'd also like to thank the audience development team and Henry Pickavet, who manages TechCrunch audio products. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:10Speaker 00

  Hello and welcome back to Equity, a podcast all about the business of startups, where we unpack the numbers and the nuance behind the headlines. My name is Alex and we have a full crew today because we are going to be taking a look at our old predictions and talking about what is coming up next year. So I have rounded up the troops. In one corner, I have my dear friend, it's Mary Ann Azevedo. Mary Ann, hi. How are you feeling in your Nostradamus hat today?

• 0:34Speaker 01

  You know, Alex, I can't believe it's the end of 2023 already.

• 0:39Speaker 00

  I can because I've aged about seven years this year. So yes, I'm actually ready for a new year so I can stop feeling ancient. But Mary Ann, you're not the only person with us today. We also have Kirsten Korosec back yet again. Kirsten, hi, hello, how are you?

• 0:53Kirsten Korosec?

  I'm great and I'm ready to make bold predictions.

• 0:56Speaker 00

  Yes, Kirsten was not with us last year, so she will not be grading herself, but she will be making some bold new bets for the new year. And thankfully for everyone, we also have Becca Scootack with us. Becca, hi, how's life?

• 1:08Speaker 03

  Life is good. I'm also excited to make some bold predictions. And if I have the same track record as the last few years, I will get most of them wrong.

• 1:16Speaker 00

  Yes, well, the old joke that we tell every year is that for the longest time we used to say, here are our predictions, we're looking forward to being wrong by like January 15th, because the world would always make us look silly. All right, now, before we get into what we said last year and what we are saying for the year ahead, I just want to say that if you hear a buzzing in my sound background, it's because some very fine folks are currently getting rid of the leaves in my backyard with very loud machines. So sorry about that, just how the timing worked out.

• 1:42Kirsten Korosec?

  Maybe there will be some new electric blowers that they can use in the new year.

• 1:49Speaker 00

  You know, there has been conversation, I think at the providence level, about banning gas-powered leaf blowers. And I think we have bigger problems to sort out first, you know?

• 1:59Kirsten Korosec?

  Okay, well, with that in mind, I think we should start off with you, Alex. How did you fare in your predictions for 2023?

• 2:09Speaker 00

  You know, I know I just said we're usually complete trash at this, but I don't think I did that poorly. So I'm going to do this really quick, but my first prediction was that the theory that companies are infinite software sponges is wrong, and it's going to get harder to sell software in 2023. Correct. Generative AI in its current and next iterations remains mostly a toy and not yet a product. I'm going to go ahead and say mostly correct outside of some writing tools and code generation. Definitely made progress there, but I don't think everyone's like living and dying by generative AI today. So eh, 50/50. And then NFTs remain in winter until either crypto returns to prior heights, where somebody figures out an actual use case. NFTs are coming back a little bit because prices are back up. But otherwise, I think

• 2:51Speaker 00

  that's correct. So frankly, not to be too kind to myself, but I don't think that's that bad of a set. Not terrible.

• 2:58Speaker 01

  Not at all. Definitely the NFTs one, though. I mean, I think, you know.

• 3:04Speaker 00

  Mary Ann, the NFT pumpers are back in my, in my tweets, talking about their punks and their, I don't even know, their lads and their gentlemen and all these different like sets of, of images. And God bless them. You know what? They're having fun with their trading cards and that's okay.

• 3:20Speaker 01

  Let them have fun.

• 3:21Speaker 03

  You're gonna get a lot of anger emails from generative AI startup founders with you being, saying that we still are mostly just using it as a toy. They're gonna be like, my marketing software? Pound my fists on the table. That is not a toy. I agree with you.

• 3:38Speaker 00

  If startup founders want to share the ARR they are generating from their generative AI powered products and services, I would love to hear about it. In the meantime, I think people are still in the prototyping and testing phase more than the implementation and production phase of gen AI. But enough about me, Mary Ann, grade yourself.

• 3:55Speaker 01

  Yeah, this is a little tough because my first prediction is one that's, I think it's hard to, I don't know, quantify if it really played out or not. I predicted that companies would approach hiring with a more disciplined mindset, especially in sectors like fintech where there were so many mass layoffs in 2022. And I predicted, along with that still, that there would be, they would be more realistic about the future when considering how many people to hire. I'll come back to that in a minute. Secondly, fintech will likely see more consolidation even among smaller players who realize it makes more sense financially and otherwise to team up than continue to compete. First one, you know, I don't really, I can't, I don't know for sure if companies approached

• 4:37Speaker 01

  hiring for more disciplined mindset. So I think that's, that's a hard one to gauge how I did.

• 4:43Speaker 00

  I think on the hiring, you're looking good, though.

• 4:46Kirsten Korosec?

  Yeah, I was gonna say with that, though, there's been a ton of layoffs, too. So it's like, we're laying off and we're also now going to take a more disciplined mindset. So there's like been a lot of layoffs to get them to this now more disciplined place, I guess.

• 5:06Speaker 00

  Yeah, that feels right. And then Mary Ann, on the consolidation part, we talked about some fintech M and A this year. So I think that's looking pretty good.

• 5:15Speaker 01

  Yeah, you know, it came in waves. Like I think we've mentioned in January, there were a bunch of deals. We started out with Marketta acquiring Power. We had a summer deal with Visa and Pismo. We recently had Weebull and Flink. And then Robinhood bought X1, the credit card startup. So they were sprinkled throughout the year, some smaller and some larger deals. So I think, though, overall, we did see a decent amount of consolidation in the fintech space. I would have to say maybe, though, not quite as much as I expected.

• 5:45Speaker 00

  Got it.

• 5:46Speaker 03

  Yeah, no, I was gonna agree with you there because I, one of my predictions from last year was just that general startup M and A would increase of startups buying other startups. And that definitely did increase this year, like you're saying with fintech. But again, I would agree, just not as much as I thought it would. But I also think that ties into a lot of people originally predicted that startups would run out of money en masse in 2023. And now a lot of people are saying, no, that will happen in 2024. So I think, as I did in 2022, I'm going to make the exact same prediction for next year. But before we get to our predictions for 2024, the other thing I predicted last year was that as valuations

• 6:29Speaker 03

  fall, secondaries will become crazy, which didn't really happen. It came and went in waves. And it got active in the summer because of the upcoming IPOs of like,

• 6:41Speaker 03

  Arm and Instacart and that kind of brought a lot of public investors back to venture secondaries. But it didn't last because the IPOs didn't do as well as everyone wanted them to. We're recording this a couple of weeks in advance, but been chatting with a lot of folks about secondaries over the last couple of weeks. And with the IPO window expected or predicted maybe to be a little bit more active in 2024. People are pretty excited about what will happen for secondaries because a few secondary investors just recently told me I did a survey and I asked them, I was like, so are we at the bottom of valuations? Like, can valuations actually drop further than they already have on the secondary market? And a lot of them said they didn't think we're at the bottom yet.

• 7:21Speaker 00

  Oh, wow.

• 7:22Speaker 03

  Which surprised me. Yeah.

• 7:24Speaker 00

  It's not good news, but I just want to throw in there because I have to because I'm biased. If you want to read more of Becca's excellent coverage on the secondary market, there's a place called TechCrunch Plus that has all of it. It's fantastic. You should check it out.

• 7:33Speaker 03

  It's arguably the best subscription service media company there is.

• 7:38Speaker 00

  Literally number one.

• 7:39Speaker 03

  Literally number one.

• 7:40Speaker 00

  Except no substitutes. Sorry, New York Times. All right. I'm not going to lie. I'm actually pretty happy with how those predictions turned out. Better than expected. Definitely our best year in the history of this show, which is getting pretty old now. So that's not so bad. Now let's ruin that record by being spicy about next year and getting everything wrong like we're supposed to. Mary Ann, you're going to start us off here. You have a prediction about startup trends. Go for it.

• 8:04Speaker 01

  Well, just piggybacking on our predictions from last year, I do think we will see continued fintech M and A. I think there's going to be more smaller players, not just like a bigger companies buying smaller startups. But I think more smaller players are going to team up and just realize, okay, one plus one equals three. Right? Like, you know, we can do this. You can do that. If we join forces, we can do something even better faster. So the thing with that is, is that we don't always necessarily hear about all of those sorts of consolidations. So it may be hard to gauge, but I do think we're going to see more of that. Then another thing, and I have to, I have to credit someone on X who tweeted this that

• 8:48Speaker 01

  got me to thinking, someone named Alexander Nihenke, I believe that's how you might pronounce his name, I'll spell it, it's N I E H E N K E. He posted on X recently that he, he expects we're going to see more than 25% of partners at VC funds exit the business in the next few years and a similar shrinkage of funds. So I thought that was really, really interesting, especially in light of the fact that OpenView Ventures shutting down, partners leaving. We had layoffs at Anthemis earlier this year, or I reported on it earlier this year, a

• 9:27Speaker 01

  fintech focused VC firm. So I, I think what he said makes sense. I mean, we're, we're dealing with a very different environment. People are not investing in the way they once were. Firms are not investing in the way they once were. And I think a lot of people who went into venture are second guessing that decision. I think I read that one of the OpenView partners is, I think he's investing in small businesses like car washes and totally out of venture.

• 9:55Speaker 00

  Well, what's the difference between a car wash and a software startup? One generates cash.

• 10:00Speaker 01

  Oh.

• 10:01Speaker 00

  What?

• 10:02Speaker 01

  Zing. I mean, I just, I do think that we are going to see some shrinking in the space, both in terms of how many funds there are and how many actual VC investors there are.

• 10:14Speaker 03

  No, I agree with you because earlier this week, I was at a VC holiday party and the news of OpenView essentially broke when all of us would be traveling to said parties. So vibes were a little interesting. Like people were in good spirits, but definitely a little bit of a damper. But pretty much everyone I spoke to about it was like, oh yeah, like they're just the first one people found out about it. Like no one would give me names, but they're like, so many funds have slashed all of their teams. So it's just partners. They got rid of everyone who's not a partner. Some funds, people think will shut down entirely next year, similar to OpenView. And then just a whole lot of other stuff like that. It's, it's going to be, we're going to see a lot less VCs next year. I would agree with that prediction.

• 10:58Speaker 00

  Okay, but thinking about the numbers and the trends, this actually, it just feels kind of logical. If venture capital funds get smaller, as we expect them to, there's less money in the pot for fees and there's less dollars in the pot to make investments. So you probably want to have fewer partners to lower your cost base and also to ensure there's enough capital for each partner to be useful. So that makes sense. On the not being as many funds total and firms shutting down, well, I wonder how many venture capital firms are right now sitting on negative IRR and inability to deliver any sort of cash on cash returns? Can't be, it can't be 0% and those firms are in trouble.

• 11:34Kirsten Korosec?

  Yeah, I was actually just thinking the same thing. And also, I'm wondering how much of this was made in the latter half of 2023? Are we gonna, like, has the correction already been made? Or are we going to continue to see it in 2024? Because if it's already done, you know, Becca, you mentioned that based on people you spoke to, they had already heard of this happening and just that open view was the first to get out. So if all these corrections are already been made, what does 2024 look like as a result? Or really, is this just this beginning of cutting back? So to me, I'm not really sure. But I don't know if anyone here like has any insight on that.

• 12:13Speaker 03

  Yeah, it's funny that you say that because one of the guys that I spoke with at this party was saying that he was like, Q3 was a bloodbath for VC and he's like, and we just, it just hasn't, like, the extent of that just isn't realized by folks like outside of the industry. So I think, what I think is happening is like, big firms are cutting this year, or big firms, not necessarily like Sequoias and Resins, but like bigger firms are cutting this year. And I think we'll see sort of the pain in the emerging manager, the small fund solo GP space more next year would be my guess.

• 12:45Speaker 00

  Okay, can I, can I make this self referential for a second? I just realized that no, no venture capital firm is like- Tried to hire me or any of my friends lately. Now that I think about it, maybe they are pulling back.

• 12:57Speaker 03

  So true.

• 12:58Kirsten Korosec?

  That is the, I guess that's the, the TC Linman's test, right?

• 13:03Speaker 00

  Yeah. So maybe that's the best way to think about where we are in a venture cycle. The pace at which tech people are poached by venture firms is correlated to exactly how overheated the venture capital market is in any given time. All right, let's move on to media predictions. I'm going to go ahead and start this one off. Media is a sometimes venture backed category of digital company, not super startup-y. But I think that in 2024, the media biz doesn't get worse. I think the ad market picks up a little bit. And I think that subscription focused media does okay. I think there'll always be winners and losers, but I think in general, people are discovering that subs are not a salvation, nor are they terrible. They're just kind of in the middle.

• 13:45Speaker 00

  And so I think media is going to do kind of blah all of next year. Does anyone have a more positive take?

• 13:51Speaker 03

  I do. I think we'll see, obviously the layoffs in media this year have been hard to watch and the shutdowns of publications as a whole has been hard to watch. But it's been really fun seeing the subscription only, like sites pop up of journalists who all like a team of reporters that left, like the Vice team that started 404 Media and stuff like that. And like, I know we were just talking about how a lot of the science desk at Wired was laid off and I was like, oh, well, like that would be another prime candidate to like launch another one of these journalist led, like subscription only publications. And like the defector did it a few years ago and is still around. So obviously it's going at least somewhat successfully.

• 14:32Speaker 03

  And I really hope and think we might see not a ton of these because the bandwidth for so many of these companies to launch, but I think we'll see at least a couple next year. And I think this is smart because people are moving away from venture backed media, which is going to be good for them.

• 14:48Speaker 00

  Yeah, I don't think media and venture capital line up well because margins in media are shite. And I think venture capital is dependent on technology level margins, which media doesn't have. Scooting along to PropTech, Kirsten, I'm going to go ahead and bring you in here.

• 15:01Kirsten Korosec?

  Oh, yeah.

• 15:02Speaker 00

  Because you have our sole PropTech prediction. Hit us.

• 15:05Kirsten Korosec?

  I felt like we needed to because PropTech has just been so crushed over, you know, the past 18 months or so. So I'm going to say this, I do expect PropTech to continue to have a rough beginning into early 2024. However, I am already seeing like diversification. Just the other day, we were talking about a kind of a different kind of PropTech that was looking at rentals.

• 15:31Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 15:31Kirsten Korosec?

  新房 homes. So I'm seeing diversification within the PropTech space going into 2024. And obviously, if there's a rate cut, we're going to see probably a boost as well. I just don't see PropTech going falling any further. And so it's like, I think they hit the bottom. I think that the ones that managed to survive will have either diversified or will get a little bit of upside on a rate cut, which I do think was going to happen in 2024. So kind of continuing story, the first quarter, but I expect by the second half of the year, things kind of turn around.

• 16:11Speaker 00

  Slipping macro predictions about federal funds levels inside the tech podcast.

• 16:15Kirsten Korosec?

  Hey, why not? I like to be spicy.

• 16:19Speaker 00

  Mary Ann, can you can you vet that for us, that Kirsten prediction?

• 16:22Speaker 01

  I mean, I I hope she's right, honestly. I mean, I've been obviously paying attention to PropTech for a long time. It was a very, very difficult year, interest rates getting reaching as high as 8%. I mean, honestly, the last time we saw them that high was. Mid 2000s, that 2007-ish, you know, before the big crisis. I didn't think it was going to happen again anytime soon. So a lot of projects either went out of business or are struggling. I would, I hope that the bottom was this year. Kirsten, I hope you're right. And I, and I hope that they will continue to figure it out, tweak their models so that they can continue to operate.

• 17:06Speaker 01

  And I do agree, I think there are a lot more focused on different aspects of the market, not just like luxury homes, you know, which just feels really tone deaf sometimes.

• 17:17Speaker 00

  Yes, luxury housing doing just fine. Other housing, not so much. But I do want to get to AI because clearly this is the place where we have the most predictions for next year. You can't not think about AI. And Becca, I want to start with you.

• 17:29Speaker 03

  Yeah, so I think, and there's already some signs of this in the data. I think AI investing will slow down a little bit, not like drop off a cliff, not like what we saw with crypto getting hot and dropping off or anything like that. But there's definitely signs that investors are not happy with kind of how investing in AI has been going. Another thing I pulled from chatting with secondary's investors is a few of them said they don't invest in AI because on the secondary market, how highly valued the AI startups are, they would have to grow like something like 500% year over year in revenue for them to actually like work out as like getting in at that valuation. So it's like even just covering it over the summer, some early stage investors too,

• 18:12Speaker 03

  who have traditionally invested in AI were like, we're sitting this out for at least a bit because everything is so overpriced now and people are all jumping in. And there's a lot of companies built on garbage business models because people are just trying to grab a slice of the trend and I get that. So I think AI investing won't go away, but I think, I don't want to say flight to quality because I don't particularly like that term, but people are going to actually invest in only good AI companies. Or we'll see more concentrated investing, I think is the better way to put that.

• 18:47Kirsten Korosec?

  I'm glad you mentioned overpriced because I saw the same thing happen in sort of the autonomous vehicle space a few years ago. It really hit peak hype and I do feel like we did hit that this year. So when you're talking to VCs, are you getting a sense that they're still actually interested in the potential of AI as a product and not a marketing ploy to, you know, raise money by a startup and that they're just waiting for a good one and for valuations to settle? Or is it actually a much probably more serious issue where they just don't feel like it's ready and they're going to sit it out for quite some time?

• 19:32Speaker 03

  So I think it's the first thing, which is a good sign for AI in the industry in general, because I think you can already see that a little bit this year. It's just some of the companies that get funding in the AI space that like don't draw as big of the headlines. Like I covered one in Deal Dive back in November, a company called Pippin Title. And what they do is they use AI to pull like title information for real estate developers, people who work in like, who builds in the climate space, people who would build like wind turbines and stuff like that. And they use AI to pull that. It's a public database. So it's obviously built on, they won't run into copyright issues down the line. It's publicly

• 20:13Speaker 03

  available information. They built this AI system. If they document it online, they actually send someone in person, which I thought was kind of a fun aspect of the company. But there, and that company raised a very modest sized round. They said they turned away investors. Like they're definitely still smart plays in AI now and companies that are making, I think I had the headline of the article was like an AI company actually making a significant improvement as opposed to a minor one, which we're seeing a lot of AI companies raise money now that make minor improvements to things and sort of like slight upgrades. But there are companies in AI that are making major upgrades to especially things like the legal industry and stuff. And I think those companies will continue to have success and investors will still be interested there.

• 20:55Speaker 00

  So places where we're seeing AI used to analyze lots of either structured or unstructured data in a way that humans can't individually to unlock either productivity or insights seems to be a place where AI can have a lot of leverage versus today. I think a lot of people are expecting that AI is going to be your best buddy in your working environment very soon. And I do think that co-pilot Microsoft model applies for things like development and maybe some writing tasks, but I don't think we're going to get that close to what people are hoping for. It's like a personal assistant. And that's kind of why the thing that I want to think about for next year for AI is the OS level. So I think we talk about apps at the application level quite a lot, but I think, I think that the real thing people want to see that hasn't existed yet to Becca's

• 21:39Speaker 00

  point will come at in the OS and I'm, I'm hoping that's next year. I don't know if we'll get that far, but I'd rather be a year early and right than not be adventurous, if that makes sense. So I think, you know, Windows and Mac OS are going to get a lot more fun in the coming years.

• 21:57Speaker 03

  Yeah, because something I said in that story a few weeks ago is that like there are literally AI companies that make using Excel better. And it's like you're using Excel still like that's not really a huge innovation. Like you're just building on top of something existing, but then you have all these other companies that are really building their own models, building either like a closed loop data system. So like, again, won't run into the copyright issues, stuff like that down the line. So I think there are definitely really attractive pockets in AI still. And I think investors are not just going to be trying to grab anything with AI in the title to get a piece of the trend next year. Some investors.

• 22:31Speaker 01

  Yeah, I just wanted to jump in and say that you and I are on the same page generally there, Becca. It sounds like I agree. I think AI has been obviously the buzzword this year. It will continue to be so in 2024. But yes, I think we're going to see a little bit of a slowdown, a little more discrimination in terms of investments as well. And I don't know if it'll ever not be this crazy, but it just, it can't be this nuts forever.

• 22:58Speaker 00

  Yes. All right, Kirsten, I want you to hit us with a take on the future of self-driving cars before we wrap up here.

• 23:06Kirsten Korosec?

  Self-driving cars, it's going to be a race between commercialization and running out of money, same old story, but I think that is going to come to a head in 2024, especially.

• 23:19Speaker 00

  That was so brief, I have to ask a follow-up.

• 23:21Kirsten Korosec?

  Okay.

• 23:21Speaker 00

  Why is next year the year that is the crux?

• 23:23Kirsten Korosec?

  Well, we already know that companies like Cruise were burning through tens of millions of dollars. We don't have insight into what Waymo is spending, but we can probably take an educated guess that it's close to that. Then you have Zooks, then you have Motion, all these companies that are pouring through a lot of money, not yet really making significant revenue, and you can't continue that forever. So, in order to do that, while there is also pressure from local opposition, potentially federal government, some states, you have to make a move. You can't just drag it out. I also expect the same thing to be happening on the self-driving truck front with companies like Aurora, who have said they plan on doing a commercial launch in about a year. So,

• 24:08Speaker 00

  Right.

• 24:08Kirsten Korosec?

  that puts us, you know, at the end of next year. So, a lot has to happen, and that means having the money to do so. It's always been the case, but this year, I think, is 2024 is going to be particularly important.

• 24:23Speaker 00

  Well, you know where I stand on that issue. Viva La self-driving cars, so let's hope next year ends up good for them. And then, Becca, last one goes to you. What's going to happen with late-stage valuations next year?

• 24:33Speaker 03

  That's an interesting one, because I would have thought we would have seen some, not normalization, because everything going back up to the right doesn't necessarily mean it's normal, but I thought we had hit the bottom, until I read the secondaries investor survey response, where everyone said, no, I don't think we have reached the bottom, and there's still areas they're not willing to pay for. And so, I thought that's interesting, because they're more short-term investors than traditional VCs, because they generally try to exit within two to four years. So, they are a little more acute to some of this, or tuned is a better way to put that, to some of these issues. So, now I'm not as sure. I originally thought we'd see nothing like 2021, but I thought we'd see at least like some movement upward with valuations, but now I'm not so sure.

• 25:19Speaker 00

  Well, on that incredibly cheery note, we send you off into the new year with a lot of hugs and thanks for all of your support of The Equity Show and the Equity team. I want to say a big thanks to Kirsten, and to Becca, and to Mary Ann, and people you can't see and hear as much. Teresa Locan Solo, of course, our ever adventurous producer, Maggie, elsewhere in the podcast crew, and of course, Henry Pickavet, who does lead our podcasting effort at the management level. So, thank you all so much, and Happy New Year, everybody.

• 25:48Speaker 01

  Happy New Year.

• 25:51Speaker 00

  Equity is hosted by myself, editor in chief of TechCrunch Plus, Alex Wilhelm, and TechCrunch senior reporter, Mary Ann Azevedo. We are produced by Teresa Locan Solo, with editing by Kell. Bryce Durbin is our illustrator, and a big thank you to the audience development team, and Henry Pickavet, who manages TechCrunch Audio Products. Thank you so much for listening, and we'll talk to you next time.