A Gutty Spurs Win, Angry Knicks Fans, Game 4 Thoughts, and NBA Draft Movements With Rob Mahoney and J. Kyle Mann

Join The Ringer’s Bill Simmons and Rob Mahoney LIVE to react to the Spurs taking Game 3 against the Knicks in the NBA Finals (1:15). Then, J. Kyle Mann comes on to break down the top prospects and the best fits ahead of the NBA draft (48:00). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Rob Mahoney and J. Kyle Mann Producers: Chia Hao Tat, Eduardo Ocampo, and Chris Wohlers Brought to you by PayPal. Learn more at paypal.com #ULTRACourtside could get you closer to the game! https://michelobultra.com/courtside MICHELOB ULTRA® COURTSIDE ’25 to ’26. No Purchase Necessary. Open to US residents 21 plus. Begins on October 1, 2025 and ends on June 30, 2026 Multiple entry periods. See Official Rules at https://michelobultra.com/courtside for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes, and details. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit https://fanduel.com/playwithaplan to learn more about the resources and helplines Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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• 0:00Speaker 00

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• 1:06Bill Simmons?

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• 2:16Bill Simmons?

  Bill Simmons Podcast, live here on Netflix. Rob Mahoney is with me. We're coming off game three Spurs Knicks. Wanted to mention, you can hear Rob on the Prestige TV Podcast. You can hear him on the Ringer NBA Show as well on group chat. I have new rewatchables that went up actually tonight. It's From Hell Month, Rob, and we did Single White Female. Not sure where you stand on that with me.

• 2:38Speaker 02

  I'm anti-single white female as a concept. You know, the impersonation into potential murder, I can't say I'm for it.

• 2:44Bill Simmons?

  Well, we loved it and we went over two hours talking about it. Okay, game three, which I think if the Knicks lost, we were gonna dub the Trump game. And yet, after watching, watching what the Spurs did today, I gotta say, I have no dog in this race. I'm so impressed by the Spurs. They, I actually thought that there was a real possibility they were gonna do this today, because there were so many good signs from the first two games. This is a team with a lot of pride, a lot of, lot of chutzpah. It's the second youngest finals team we've ever had. The first youngest finals team came back from 02 and won in the 77 finals. They showed them in the huddle before the game, Rob, and they seemed loose. They're doing their dancing stuff,

• 3:28Bill Simmons?

  and it, and it was like just unintimidating by the moment. Meanwhile, every single celebrity on the planet is there. Even though this turned into a rock fight, I was wildly impressed with them. So let's start there. What are your Spurs thoughts coming out of the gate?

• 3:41Speaker 02

  I also thought they could win this one. I mean, games one and two were so tight. It was a classic case of this is the NBA Finals, so there are huge takeaways from very, very slim margins. The, the turnover at the end of game two was catastrophic. Like, that could have been a career-altering play, could still be a series-altering play. We'll see how it all shakes out. But they were there that close to begin with. They were doing enough positively to be super competitive over the first two. And I thought in this one in particular, came out with a lot of clarity in their offensive game plan in terms of, like, the Knicks- Have been playing incredible defense, but even the best defensive game plans come at a cost. Like you're giving up something somewhere and you could see, I would say with Castle and Fox specifically. They knew the the weak side read before it even really sprang open.

• 4:25Speaker 02

  And so that gave me a lot of confidence that like, okay, this team knows what they're doing. The moment I shook up a little bit is that end of second quarter Knicks resurgence where I was like, oh no. Is it just gonna be like this where? New York scores at the end of every like late clock opportunity where they have responses for every conceivable run. That's just who they've been in these playoffs. Fortunately for the Spurs, they got, I mean, absolutely saved by a late Stephon Castle three. And De'Aaron Fox going one on one against OG Ananobe, which is like. Playing tug of war with a Doberman like I I I want no part of that matchup or anything related to it.

• 5:02Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, the it turned into a rock fight near the end. And I couldn't tell if it was the tension of the crowd. Um, and the energy of the building and just how long the night was, you know, and everybody taking so long to get in there and every. Piece of that, how hard everyone was playing. But it felt like neither team. Could get any shot they really the Spurs were starting plays with six seconds left, 45 second, 45 feet from the basket. You mentioned there were the. I wrote down that the Castle lucky bailout three was in my notes.

• 5:32Speaker 02

  Monster.

• 5:33Bill Simmons?

  That was after two San Antonio blocks Brunson scores. And it feels like, oh my God, this is we've been here before with the Knicks and Brunson, I mean, Castle. Bails him out there and then Fox. So I texted you with eight, eight minutes left.

• 5:48Bill Simmons?

  And I asked you, do we see Fox again? Cause he had come out and they were playing Harper with Castle. I think they were playing Vassell and Champagne and Wemby.

• 5:56Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 5:57Bill Simmons?

  And. I was 50 50 whether we'd see Fox again. He wasn't seemed like he he says, lost confidence in his three.

• 6:06Bill Simmons?

  Wasn't really attacking the basket like he usually does. And I didn't know if we'd see him again, but we saw him again and then he made the biggest shot of the game.

• 6:13Speaker 02

  Never found confidence in the three though. And for a moment, I thought the defining play of him coming back was that possession where he passed up an open three to drive into OG and fall over. And it was like, oh, like that was where you could feel some of the tension. You could feel some of the potential Spurs implosion. But not only did he come up with that huge shot, he had like a possession saving block on Kat during that one, like Knicks possession that wouldn't end and they kept maybe, maybe fouling, maybe blocking Kat. Who's to say? And then also I thought he had some really good drive and kick stuff for shots that just didn't fall. Like some of the cleanest looks the Spurs ended up getting down the stretch.

• 6:46Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 6:46Speaker 02

  Were triggered by De'Aaron Fox of all people.

• 6:49Bill Simmons?

  There's some weird Spurs coaching stuff still that I don't really totally understand. But the thing I love that they did today, they staggered the timeouts. I'm almost positive Wemby didn't come out of the fourth quarter. And there was, I think, at least two challenges. There was a timeout that he took right after a challenge and I think he was just trying to use the timeouts. So he never had to take Wemby out. And that fourth quarter felt like it went on for 45 minutes. Wemby ended up finishing with the 32, eight and six with the three blocks. And I, I thought seemed pretty fresh down the stretch. Now, the Knicks in the second half, I think they had at least 10 offensive rebounds. Cause there was a, for the first like hour of this game, each team only had one offensive rebound. Cause everything was going in.

• 7:34Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 7:34Bill Simmons?

  And then it turned into more of a rock fight and the Knicks started to really hurt them. But I thought Wemby seemed a lot more fresh down the stretch. I still think fundamentally, the fact that the Spurs had that pad, really, they were always up 6, 8, 5, 7, 10, 6. And so when their offense really went sideways, it was okay. I wonder what happens in a game four, if this is a two point game with three minutes left. I still don't really know what the Spurs play is in that situation. Like what do you see from them when it gets really slow down half court, crowd standing? What's their play? Because we know what it is for the Knicks.

• 8:12Speaker 02

  I would say some of the most successful stuff for them to just dial up has been like pretty simple, like staggered screens, Wemby and a second screener and Castle or Fox can come off of that action. And, and you'll see like multiple Knicks when that happens end up gravitating toward Wemby and then like Devin Vassell be wide open in the corner on the wing. So you can get like good action out of that. And frankly, I think it's like a little cleaner for them than some of the other stuff that they tried to draw up. Or, I mean, the possession that led to that Stephon Castle bailout three was just, they were just trying to run a handoff with Victor Webanyama and he got jammed up. This was not like the best cat game or the most sterling cat game, but I thought he did as well challenging Wemby's jumper.

• 8:54Speaker 02

  Like in this one, that maybe from anyone I've ever seen defend Victor Webanyama. How many possessions do we see Wemby leave his feet and have to just pass out to somebody because he couldn't get the shot off of her cat? And so they were able to jam him up in a way that I don't think you can just run ISO for Wemby or dribble handoff for Wemby. I think it has to be slightly more complicated than that.

• 9:14Bill Simmons?

  Which is what happened at least three times down the stretch where it seemed like he just had the ball with 30 feet from the basket. Under 10 seconds left, figure it out. And I don't really think he's that kind of player. Castle, you know, who, who was huge, who answered the usage rate critics, myself included in the first half. He was like seven for eight, but he was attacking the basket. And I wrote down in my notes in the first half, like, sometimes this will happen with players when they're awesome early. This always used to be the Celtics with Marcus Smart. If Marcus Smart was awesome in the first quarter, it's like, ah, are we going to pay for that later?

• 9:48Speaker 02

  Maybe so.

• 9:49Bill Simmons?

  When he's taking 10 field goals in the fourth quarter because he was hot two hours ago. But Castle, I thought for the most part played, uh, played a much smarter game than I thought he played in game two. I still think he has the ball. Just more than I want if I'm a Spurs fan when you have these other two point cards that have great handles and are real point cards, but this is how they do it.

• 10:09Speaker 02

  Well, how do you want it to shake out then? Because our confidence was wavering in DeR and Fox at points in this game. We were just talking about how you can't just give the ball to Victor Wembanyama 30 feet from the basket. I guess it's Dylan Harper by default that you want a little bit more of?

• 10:24Bill Simmons?

  Who wasn't perfect today, even though I thought he swung the game in the second quarter, thought in the second half, he got a little I got this C and had a couple like reckless drives. I think he finished with 13, but his rebounding, I mean, he does so many good things. I feel, one of the things I noticed, I've noticed this when I used to play pickup, when lefties guard other lefties, they kind of, it's like they have the kryptonite for the other lefty because they know all the lefty moves. And I think with Harper, when he defends Brunson, he just seems really comfortable on him. And I wonder if we're going to see that more because Castle's done a good job on him too. But I, how many minutes did Harper play today? To me, he has to be, so he was.

• 11:06Speaker 02

  32.

• 11:07Bill Simmons?

  And 32 seems to be where they've landed with him. I'll be interested to see if they bump that at any point because they tried Carter Bryan out. He came out guns blazing, was guarding Cat, which I wanted to see, made a three, and then all of a sudden turned into a human bowling ball. So he only played three minutes.

• 11:24Speaker 02

  The guns were always blazing with Carter Bryan. Like, he really only has the one gear.

• 11:28Bill Simmons?

  Cornet played nine minutes minus three, which is really good for him, five rebounds. And Kelton Johnson, they tried to get going. He was plus 14. He was at least being physical, but Harper is really, I think, the only bench guy they can trust. And then, we didn't even mention this yet, and we should because I can just tell you from all the text fans I was getting from my Nick fan friends, furious about the officiating. Like, asking me, knowing I'm a neutral observer, like, are you watching this? Are you seeing this? I thought Wemby throwing Brunson down was bad. I couldn't believe they didn't call that. It's worth mentioning that every time the next challenger call, it's in their favor because it was a bad call. So that's definitely happened.

• 12:10Bill Simmons?

  But for the most part, I thought it was pretty even. I don't, what did you think?

• 12:15Speaker 02

  I thought this was yet another incredibly physical game. And if you're gonna point at any game in this series where the Knicks got a raw deal officiating wise, I would say it's game two. This one, other than the Wemby shove on Jalen Brunson, I don't, I don't remember a ton of plays that were incredibly egregious. I'm sure if we go back with the microscope that we can find some, but I thought a lot of people were being held and shoved and pushed basically at all times. That's just kind of the game it was.

• 12:41Bill Simmons?

  My buddy Jim Grady, who I've known since I was 15 years old, NBA fucking sucks. The refs are doing everything in their power for the Spurs. Wemby throwing elbows is annoying. Just really like this was, every Nick fan I know is sending me some berish and the same thing. They did go into the penalty almost immediately in the fourth quarter. Like there was one moment, they had five fouls and the Spurs had zero. And if that had been the Celtics, I would have been losing their mind. But

• 13:09Speaker 02

  But so much of that was frustration too. Like the Knicks, they came on the fourth quarter. I mean, really for most of the second half, their offense, everything was so difficult. The Spurs were picking up Brunson really high. They were making him work every step of the way. And you could just tell, not even by Brunson's shooting efficiency, which is fine, like his scoring was fine. It's more about how many dribbles, how many moves, how much did it tax him just to create literally anything? And he has to do so much for the Knicks.

• 13:35Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, when he came out, so that was the second, they had a 42-point second quarter, the Knicks. But he comes out and it's 33-22 after the first quarter, but Alvarado and Clarkson coming together shift the energy and it's a two-point game. And I thought they were really effective and they got the crowd into it in a different way. And as you said, really Brunson-centric, which is usually everybody's least favorite version of the Knicks. And not to blame him, but it was just, it was just a lot of dribbling. The fourth quarter was different. I didn't feel like it was as Brunson centric. I just thought the Spurs played, I thought the level they went to defensively, and if you're gonna complain about the refs, I get it. I would do the same thing if it was Celtics, but just know that the reason the Spurs won that game was

• 14:20Bill Simmons?

  their defense was out of control in the second half. I thought it went higher and higher and higher. And it was even like, they were, they were trapping towns with two guys, getting over to the corner guy, getting over to the corner pass to the other side. Like, it was fucking crazy to watch. So I think that's fair, right? The defense won the game. Okay.

• 14:38Speaker 02

  Completely connected, completely on a string. And I'll say this too, for the Spurs, like, it's not a coincidence that Julian Schumpeter is not on the floor for critical stretches of the fourth quarter. He's like the closest thing that Jalen Brunson has to a target out there.

• 14:52Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 14:52Speaker 02

  I thought even he did fine. And really, across the board, the Spurs in switches were so competitive and so physical with Brunson, where, yeah, he's gonna get his points. And like, Jalen Brunson's become one of the most inevitable scorers in the league. But they did such a great job with the high pickup point, with the constant pressure, just wearing down, wearing down, not just him, but the flow of the offense. And the Knicks are better than pretty much anybody at continuing to find stuff late in the clock. But if you just make them pull rabbits out of the hat over and over and over, like, eventually, they're gonna come up empty.

• 15:24Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, you, after the second quarter, you have, OG and Hart have 30 points combined. They're 10 for 12.

• 15:31Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 15:32Bill Simmons?

  The Knicks are up seven. And it felt like they only played well for like, five minutes. And I'm at halftime going, holy shit. Like, this is gonna be a sweep. Cause there's, I was talking to somebody today who mentioned the Spurs Lakers 2001, where first two games are in, in San Antonio, I think. Really close games. Spurs lost both of them. And then in the last two games, the Lakers just descended and pummeled them and kicked their ass. And the question is, like, are we going this way? Or we go in, you know, the 77 Blazers comeback way. I did a thing on my pod yesterday about when a series flips, usually there's some sort of trigger for the flip.

• 16:16Bill Simmons?

  What was the trigger tonight for you? What changed other than the Spurs just actually took care of of business in the fourth quarter? Did you feel like something was different about the game?

• 16:26Speaker 02

  I think a lot of it was the Spurs offense. I think it wasn't constant and I don't think the Spurs are going to be that kind of team in this series at any point. The Knicks defense is too good. The Spurs are still too young and a little bit imprecise, but I thought they did a great job really establishing and looking for and being patient with getting Wemby around the basket early. With being a little bit more deliberate as far as what the Knicks were giving up on the weak side, like we mentioned earlier. And then also like I, there were just moments in this game where for the first time all series, it felt like the Knicks defense was actually behind in its rotation where the Spurs were getting ahead of it. And you could tell the Knicks were just like a step or an entire rotation behind. And guys were getting pretty clean, wide open shots because of the Spurs ball movement.

• 17:09Speaker 02

  That felt really new and that's the kind of thing where sometimes over the course of a series, you just pick up on the patterns, right? Of like how teams are defending, how they're rotating, what they're giving up. I think the Spurs might be a little more in tune with that right now, but even that stuff can change pretty quickly.

• 17:24Bill Simmons?

  I agree with everything you said. I would add this. It felt like after playing this Knicks style for two games, they did a much better job on the fast break transition stuff tonight. That they just were more ready for it. It felt like they were back and it just felt like the Knicks, even though the game was more high scoring, it felt like the, the shots and the points the Knicks were getting were just kind of harder shots. Like they, like in and open heart, heart, they were basically allowing a shoot. If I'm in the Spurs and I'm looking at that second half, especially, I thought they missed a lot of wide open shots. I don't know what the, what were they 12 for 36 from 12 for 34 from three of the Spurs?

• 18:05Bill Simmons?

  How many of those were contested? Like Harper missed, I don't know how many, how many heart threes did Harper take? He took. One for eight, right?

• 18:15Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 18:15Bill Simmons?

  Fox was oh for five, so it's thirteen threes. I bet twelve of those were wide open.

• 18:21Speaker 02

  And so the castles too, like they're giving all three of those guards a lot of room to fire if they want to.

• 18:26Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, so if I'm the Spurs, I'm like, dude, we won that game and we didn't, we didn't even hit all the open threes we had. We can't, we actually have a level to go higher than the level we played. If I'm the Knicks, I'm looking at the officiating.

• 18:40Bill Simmons?

  And maybe that with the, from a Brunson standpoint, so he was thirty five minutes, but how do I not put as much miles on him during a game? I mean, part of it was his fault because when Castle with that play reviewed when he knocked Brunson over, which was not a flagrant, but Castle really, Brunson really tried to sell it. And he kind of almost hurt himself with the exaggerated flop. Like, he flew back so hard, he like landed on his tailbone. It's like, oh my God, this could be our first semi flop injury, not that Castle didn't foul him. But I think they have to figure that piece out. Let's talk about the, the crowd and the Trump stuff.

• 19:18Bill Simmons?

  So I had, I knew a bunch of people out there, they said definitely loud, crazy, especially end of the second quarter. And then some quiet moments too. There's a lot of people at that game that probably, that might have been one of their few games of the year.

• 19:33Speaker 02

  Sure.

• 19:33Bill Simmons?

  Prices, which I think we saw happen during the Warriors stretch as we hit the Curry era. You've got incredible old Warriors crowd would kind of shift and was still really good, but not as good.

• 19:45Speaker 02

  They went from the, you know, the Oracle Warriors to the VC Warriors pretty quickly.

• 19:49Bill Simmons?

  Pretty quickly.

• 19:49Speaker 02

  Very different energy.

• 19:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, so the crowd seemed like it was good, but it wasn't, I, I didn't think the Spurs were affected. And this was one of the things I said last night, like, um, the OKC crowd where it's just, it's at this for three hours. Like, you're not going to beat that from, from a loud standpoint. So, atmosphere was great, but to me, the Spurs, even though they're young, answered the questions like, we like it, we're fine, we're here.

• 20:14Speaker 02

  And if anyone looked tense out of the gate, I would say it was the Knicks with some of the early turnovers. Like, they took a minute to settle in and they certainly did. But the Spurs didn't miss a beat, like they, they seemed ready to compete, they seemed ready for it. Were not daunted by, you know, celebrity row, all the pageantry with President Trump there, like, I gotta say, the, getting booed so loudly mid-national anthem when they put Trump on the Jumbotron, I've never seen it before.

• 20:41Speaker 02

  I mean, God bless you, MSG. Come on. We're really doing it.

• 20:45Bill Simmons?

  So the Knicks fans in general, I think, felt like they were invincible after game two. And this was, this was the unnatural act that could flip the game. Not that Trump was going as much as the circus that comes with that and people having to get there hours and hours for the game and, you know, just basically disrupting the entire process of a finals game, which is usually pretty chaotic anyway. We've both been to a bunch of finals. Like, it's abnormal. It's you have to get there super early. Everything's tougher. All the security stuff is, is way bigger, like the warmups. There's a million people on the court. It already feels like a circus, so that definitely added in. I was, I did wonder if that was going to affect the flow of the game.

• 21:29Bill Simmons?

  What it seemed like to me, which you, you said earlier, was like the Knicks, I don't think they seemed nervous, but they had so much adrenaline. They almost didn't look like the Knicks for like the first quarter. Like, they just seemed kind of, kind of overcharged and then they settled down.

• 21:44Speaker 02

  But probably more out of character moments within this game for them than at any point in this series so far. And so if you're thinking that this could be a sea change moment for the Spurs, that would be the proof of it right there, that you finally kind of rattled this seemingly unrattleable team.

• 21:59Bill Simmons?

  Well, they know, they know they have six guys they can trust. They have figured out this Wemby timeout strategy to kind of keep him on the floor a little bit more when it actually matters. They know they're getting wide open threes. So I think they, now they're just gonna compare and they use, they did some stuff with Towns that I thought was different than what they did the first two games. Like, they did use Castle on him.

• 22:21Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 22:22Bill Simmons?

  They tried Brian on him a couple of times. They tried different people.

• 22:25Speaker 02

  Kelton.

• 22:25Bill Simmons?

  They trapped him. They, it seemed to me like they kept trying to mix things up on him so that he never felt really comfortable. Uh, the Bridges thing was huge for them though, because he got the two fouls almost immediately, never got going, 28 minutes, two points. Um, and that was their best, you know, their best shooter. Which game is that? Game one or game two? He had that one.

• 22:45Speaker 02

  I think he was, he was great in game, he was great in game two though, two as well though, like playing with the bench and gave them some, a really critical lift in that one. Like, they need Mikael Bridges. Uh, it's, I know that's a pretty straightforward thing to say, but particularly during those stretches where Brunson and/or Towns are out, he's one of their most reliable ball handlers. It can't all be Jose Alvarado and. Somehow Jordan Clarkson, like I'm still

• 23:09Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 23:10Speaker 02

  shocked that we got honest to goodness, positive Jordan Clarkson minutes in the NBA Finals. LeBron James couldn't get that out of him in the finals, yet here the Knicks are. I wouldn't bet on that happening again. Like they need Mikhail in those stretches more than anything to be a ball handler, to be a shooter, to be a facilitator for their offense, too.

• 23:29Bill Simmons?

  Two days from now, we're playing again, Wednesday. Who does that help more?

• 23:36Speaker 02

  I don't know. Do you see a tilting advantage just based on that timeline? I feel like that's a pretty neutral one.

• 23:42Bill Simmons?

  The only thing I would say is the Wemby piece.

• 23:46Bill Simmons?

  Just from what we saw in the last series, when there was the one day rest between the games. Like he had a couple of games that OKC series, which were just strange, where he just seemed

• 23:55Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 23:56Bill Simmons?

  like he had concrete sneakers on. I thought he was incre- I mean, we probably should have talked about him earlier than just now. I thought he was really good today. Like, he was, because the Knicks now know not to challenge him on certain things. So whatever, he had three blocks, but they're just so aware of him at all times. And I thought he was prowling. They really figured out a way to kind of unleash him all over the place. They were hiding him on different guys. I think they learned their lesson with trying not to put him out 25 feet from the basket on Towns too much. And then offensively, he was near the basket in the first three quarters way more than than he used to be. So I thought he actually could have had even more than 32 points. He missed, they had the three taken away.

• 24:38Bill Simmons?

  He missed a couple of shots around. That easily could have been a 40-point game for him.

• 24:42Speaker 02

  I think not only the timeout stuff you mentioned in terms of just finding ways to keep him on the floor for longer stretches, but finding ways to decrease how much he has to do all the time. Turned out to be really important. Like you saw the Spurs mixing a little zone. You saw him like experiment, which is like, what happens if we have Wemby on? Landry Shamet in the corner, Mikal Bridges in the corner, OG Ananobe in the corner. How do we keep him out of the action? And then on offense, how do we make it so that when he goes to set a screen, he doesn't have to go from the block all the way up to half court every single time to set a high ball screen because Stephon Castle's having a hard time getting it across the line or whatever. Like, those are little things, but when you pile them up over 40 minutes,

• 25:23Speaker 02

  all of a sudden, you're fresher in the fourth quarter. All of a sudden, he has more to give you down the stretch and he can be more assertive getting to the basket over and over and over because you make these other parts of his life a little bit easier.

• 25:34Bill Simmons?

  Brunson.

• 25:37Bill Simmons?

  83 points, 81 shots in three games.

• 25:41Speaker 02

  It's pretty fucking good. I, I did find myself a little surprised by, Cat has been awesome, but the prevalence of Karl-Anthony Towns should be the Finals MVP if the series ended today, coming off of one and two. I get it. I understand the logic. I just don't know how we fall into it so soon after like the Andre Iguodala, Steph stuff, where it's like, do you, do you reward the guy who drafts off the attention or do you reward the guy who creates the attention? And Jalen Brunson draws everyone's eyes, everyone's focus when he's on the floor. Like, he's scoring this much despite being clearly the number one item in the scouting report and getting all of the defensive focus, but also the traps that we've seen throughout this series. Like, I don't know how he does this, frankly.

• 26:26Speaker 02

  And I, I remain just shocked and amazed at how impressive he is night to night.

• 26:31Bill Simmons?

  You are preaching to the choir.

• 26:34Speaker 02

  I'm glad.

• 26:36Bill Simmons?

  On, on two topics. Um, one, I, look, I know we all have to make content. We all have to come up with angles and do topics. We cannot have segments about who's the Finals MVP after two games.

• 26:51Bill Simmons?

  In a four, in a game where you have to win four to win the series, not to mention the series might extend past four games. I'm just, it's unacceptable. You could say, wow, Towns is playing like a Finals MVP, but you just can't do it. So that's one thing. Just stop. I don't want to hear it. I don't want to engage with it. Stop. Second, what you just said about Brunson and the Curry Iguodala thing is one of my passion points in life.

• 27:19Bill Simmons?

  The best part should always win Finals MVP unless something fucking crazy happened, right? If, like Curry Iguodala is a good example, and I, I think Curry should have won it either way, but it's like.

• 27:32Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, all they're doing is worrying about him for six games. There's all of these positive effects that just come from having this guy that's this good out there. You have to be the MVP. I felt the same way about Tatum two years ago.

• 27:45Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 27:45Bill Simmons?

  Brown took it, but Tatum did the most on the Celtics. Like, he should have won Finals MVP. He was the best guy in the deciding game and had the biggest responsibility. And for some, you know, the dumbest was when Parker won in 07. I think that one actually makes me madder than Igudala, where Duncan's just the best guy. He's the reason they won the title. He's the reason they've... And but Parker had a hot series against a crappy Finals team. It's like, our Finals MVP is Tony Parker. It's like, Tim Duncan's the most important guy in the league. What are we doing?

• 28:15Speaker 02

  That's probably some offense-defense bias, too, with, you know, like, the guard who's driving a lot of stuff naturally gets a lot of attention as those things go. So there's a lot in play with Tony Parker, for sure.

• 28:25Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, let's settle it down. Brunson and Wemby are the two best guys in this series, and whoever wins, they should win the MVP.

• 28:32Speaker 02

  I mean, if I'm not mistaken, Karl Towns, I'm not trying to drag Cat through the mud. He's been amazing. Thought he was great defensively again today, despite Wemby getting some impressive numbers. I don't think he has scored a basket in the fourth quarter for the entire series yet.

• 28:45Bill Simmons?

  Is that true?

• 28:46Speaker 02

  He's certainly scoreless in the fourth tonight, and I believe he was in Games One and Two as well.

• 28:52Bill Simmons?

  Well, ironically, Finals MVP has not moved. Brunson and Wemby are the two favorites. Brunson's even. For the series itself, the Knicks are now minus 184 on FanDuel. So, Game Four, Wednesday night, which was gonna be exciting either way. It was either gonna be the classic, somebody's up 2-1. Game Fours are always amazing.

• 29:15Speaker 02

  Mm-hmm.

• 29:16Bill Simmons?

  They're usually my favorite game of the series, unless there's a Game Seven. So we either had the Knicks trying to win their first Finals in 53 years, or we have this awesome setup for Game Four. If you had to guess the biggest tweak one of the two teams is gonna make, what is it? Because I'm probably leaning toward the Knicks side on the tweak.

• 29:39Speaker 02

  I don't know that we're going to see any dramatic tweaks, though.

• 29:41Bill Simmons?

  You think we're in? These are our cards?

• 29:43Speaker 02

  I think these are mostly the cards. I think the lineups are going to remain the same. I think the coverages and the matchups are going to remain mostly the same. It's going to be little stuff, right? It's going to be like, like one little tweak in this game that I thought made a big difference was in the first quarter, especially when Wemby would go up to set ball screens, he would actually set a screen versus doing his little like, I'm going to hold out my hands and sort of hip check you maneuver. And it turns out making contact on a screen really helps. And then all of a sudden, the Spurs, the guards are getting downhill and it's driving the entire offense. So there's going to be stuff like that, right? Like little things that pop on film. In that regard, I would think for the Knicks specifically, it is, how, how do you create some airspace for Cat during those stretches where the offense comes up? How do you make it so?

• 30:26Speaker 02

  I mean, this is, this is what's hard when you want to give the ball to Towns and run all this off-ball action. It's been working so well for the Knicks in these playoffs. If the defense and the Spurs are good enough to do this can somehow batten down all the hatches and keep all those guys under wraps, you're just like bleeding clock as he stands there with the ball sometimes. And so it's like, how do you get a little more free and clear movement where there's something popping up? And you're not driving all of those possessions into 20-plus seconds on the shot clock?

• 30:52Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that makes sense. I would say Shamet, 23 minutes tonight was a minus 20, was 1 for 8, 1 for 7 from 3. Probably a quicker trigger for him next time would be, I was really surprised Bridges didn't play more in the fourth quarter. And I thought, I actually thought he had five fouls.

• 31:09Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 31:09Bill Simmons?

  And I was texting with Knicks fan friend of mine who said he had five. And I looked it up and he had four and he finished with four. But, uh, I don't know, I think Riot, I think game four to me is a ride with our guys game. But this is all, all five of those guys are going to be at 40 or around 40 minutes with, and then the bench will fill in the rest. But I think that's, that would be my prediction with the, especially two days off until the Saturday game.

• 31:33Speaker 02

  I think it makes total sense to ride with your guys at this point. I would just argue that Landry Shamet is one of their guys. Like he, he's, he's a hero of New York. He's earned the right to be on the floor in these moments. And yeah, he, I wouldn't say this was his best game by any stretch, but they do need his gravity. They do need the attention that he draws. McHale can do a lot of those things too. And so if that's the trade-off, yeah, I agree. It, it can be a little steep sometimes.

• 31:56Bill Simmons?

  So what would you tell the Knicks fans right now who were up 2-0 in the finals, coming off a miracle-winning game two? With an emotional game three that was the hardest ticket, probably in the history of the NBA, I'm guessing. And now it's 2-1 and game four is on Wednesday and all those old skeletons are starting to creep out of the Poltergeist pool again. What would be, how would you calm them down?

• 32:22Speaker 02

  I would tell the Knicks, not that they need this reassurance, but in any game, I expect, in any close game, I expect them to win. Like, I expect Jalen Brunson to pull every like crazy one-footed fadeaway that he needs to make in order to keep these games competitive. OG Ananobe hit a crazy corner three to trim this thing to win a bowl late. The Spurs needed both the castle jumper and the fox jumper just to win this one. Yes, the margins are thin. Yes, crazy things can happen under those circumstances, but every indicator says this is a very, very close clutch time kind of series and the Knicks are the clutch time kings of these playoffs. So what reason would we have to doubt them even after a game like this?

• 33:01Bill Simmons?

  That's fair. And if I'm the Spurs, my Spurs fans, I know a few of them too. The series should be one and a half to one and a half.

• 33:10Speaker 02

  I don't think it works that way.

• 33:11Bill Simmons?

  Well, it doesn't. So you lost the half, you're down 2-1.

• 33:15Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 33:15Bill Simmons?

  You were up double figures in all three games. You had the lead in the last two minutes of all three games. Your young team actually kind of came through with some big moments and ramped up the defense in a really, really special way in the second half and feels like it's getting better and is now used to the speed of the Knicks and the finals and just all of it. And seems like

• 33:39Bill Simmons?

  just in a better place than they were in game one when they just seemed like, whoa, the finals is fast. Wow. Look at this. I thought they handled the speed the right way today. So if I'm this person, I'm like, fuck it, man. We have five and seven at home. Right? We just need to get back to seven somehow. We just need to win two of the next three and then seven's at our house.

• 34:00Speaker 02

  We just, we needed 2-2, all road wins going into a game five. Like, that's all we can hope for at this point.

• 34:06Bill Simmons?

  I wonder if that's ever happened. I guess that's happened in 77 because that's what, oh no. Yeah, that's what happened in 77. Portland won the second two. Oh no, that was in Portland though. Yeah, no, I don't think that's, I don't think that would ever have happened.

• 34:24Speaker 02

  Seems pretty unlikely.

• 34:27Speaker 02

  I mean, there've been plenty of like oh two series that have flipped in reverse course in the NBA finals like Mikail Bridges has been a part of one of them, you know, the the Mavs did it against the Heat in oh six, they were up two oh and blew that series. So it's like it has happened.

• 34:40Bill Simmons?

  But usually you're home for the first part of the flip.

• 34:43Speaker 02

  That's the thing. It's the all the all road wins for now three and potentially four games, but even that's getting ahead of ourselves. So.

• 34:51Bill Simmons?

  I've been saying this all playoffs, Rob. I don't think home court matters like it used to, even though it's fun to go to the games.

• 34:57Speaker 02

  Home court, even Mariska Hargitay's home court.

• 35:00Bill Simmons?

  Even when you have Larry David sitting next to Bob Kraft and Ari Emanuel and Mark Shapiro, and then you have, what do you have, Chalamet next to Spike Lee with Safdie.

• 35:10Speaker 02

  Yeah, this was, this was a real like BS pod rewatchables murderer.

• 35:15Bill Simmons?

  Tina Fey was there. Yeah, there was Tina Fey's next to Tracy Morgan. I was, I thought for sure we'd get Lorne Michaels tonight.

• 35:22Speaker 02

  Maybe for game four.

• 35:24Bill Simmons?

  I saw Irving Azoff under the basket. It was like all the OGs and then you, you know, Dolan, who I think usually watches from the stands. But if Trump's like, I'm coming.

• 35:36Bill Simmons?

  It's the president.

• 35:38Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 35:38Bill Simmons?

  You kind of can't say no. So now he's in a suite and I'm sure he's like, I would had better luck if I was in my seats, but.

• 35:47Speaker 02

  Getting cucked in your own building to go sit with Donald Trump. It's, it's tough.

• 35:51Bill Simmons?

  It is tough. But I think from, from the home court standpoint, I don't know what's different about it. I always felt like when I was growing up and especially like being a Celtic fan and some of the games we had, like, I just felt like if it was a must win game, we're winning.

• 36:04Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 36:05Bill Simmons?

  And we would, we could affect the refs.

• 36:09Bill Simmons?

  It just, you would have the momentum. It was just the way it went and the stats back it up like for years and years. It was 90, 95%. And now we see all this time, you just go into somebody else's house and you can win whenever you want. I don't really understand

• 36:22Speaker 02

  I don't, I don't know what is tilted, other than clearly, there's just like a lot of great competitive balance and talent around the league, but why that would explain the shift in home court advantage, I don't exactly know. Maybe it is just like travel has improved enough.

• 36:35Bill Simmons?

  The three pointers?

• 36:36Speaker 02

  I think the threes help, but this didn't feel like a game that was swung by Spurs hot shooting. You know?

• 36:42Bill Simmons?

  No, I'm just trying to think of all the different reasons that could swing. Three pointers would be one.

• 36:46Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 36:46Bill Simmons?

  The travel being so much better, you know, than it was in the seventies, eighties and really through the nineties.

• 36:52Speaker 02

  Mm hmm.

• 36:53Bill Simmons?

  The fact that we know more about our bodies when you're on the road and things to do and not do.

• 36:57Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 36:58Bill Simmons?

  Maybe don't have, you know, steak and fried chicken and cheeseburgers at three thirty in the morning.

• 37:04Speaker 02

  Might be part of it.

• 37:05Bill Simmons?

  We know that stuff.

• 37:06Speaker 02

  You think, you think DoorDash has saved or has squashed home court advantage? It's like, it's too reliable to get a Chipotle bowl now. You can't. You don't have to worry about the Michael Jordan like stomach virus from pizza anymore.

• 37:18Bill Simmons?

  Right. Well, you have that and then you have, you know, when you think about the way all the shooting motions were different in the seventies and eighties and the guys doing this.

• 37:27Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 37:28Bill Simmons?

  And now everybody's off an assembly line with the way they shoot.

• 37:31Speaker 02

  That's true.

• 37:31Bill Simmons?

  So the technique is more reliable than it used to be. I mean, the thing that almost killed the Spurs tonight were the free throws.

• 37:37Speaker 02

  Oh my gosh.

• 37:38Bill Simmons?

  And yet down the stretch, they went ten for ten. And then Castle, I wish we had mentioned this earlier.

• 37:45Bill Simmons?

  We've both been in the building when somebody has huge, huge free throws. The most famous ones I ever remember from this was the two that Kawhi had during, right before the Ray Allen shot.

• 37:55Speaker 02

  Oh yeah.

• 37:55Bill Simmons?

  He missed the first one, he made the second one. But the, sometimes when it's like, you have to make both of them and you're on the road and the crowd can go to this level and it almost feels like they're invading the guy's body. It's so loud. And you're, when you're in there watching and you're like, I don't understand how he's going to make these. Like this is the most pressure I've ever seen anyone in my life. And Castle, who they ran the play for, they inbounded the Fox, he threw it right back to Castle. That was their guy and he fucking drained him and it was awesome.

• 38:25Speaker 02

  I feel like we have mentioned a lot, the shot that he hit to kind of like give the Spurs the winning cushion and maybe not enough about, I mean, his physicality on these drives is unbelievable. And he's so elusive, like he's kind of constantly in a state of Euro step as he gets to the basket.

• 38:41Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 38:42Speaker 02

  Always decelerating, always kind of challenging you to stay down and not jump so he can bait you into a foul. I just thought his drives were exceptional, especially in the first half. But late, they needed him too. Like they needed somebody who could bust through even tough, competitive perimeter defense. And when the game is officiated this way, Stephon Casper can absolutely do that. Like he will dish out as much punishment as he will take, and he will somehow convert a lot of those opportunities.

• 39:06Bill Simmons?

  He does this one move that I'm not positive I've ever seen anybody do consistently before. When he goes, right, he drives right into the chest and takes a step. And usually you stop because there's a guy there.

• 39:17Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 39:18Bill Simmons?

  But then he just takes like this delayed second step and just puts it up anyway. And like one time they blocked it today, but there are other times when it just, I don't know how he does it, but he's just, you can't, he's almost like a running back who moves the line forward every time he goes into the line. On those drives, he's never losing the contact. He's always like going toward the basket. I thought he was great today. I was a little concerned about his 2011, 12 range, Westbrook range, kind of.

• 39:48Speaker 02

  He's got a little of that.

• 39:49Bill Simmons?

  A little like, I got this, guys. And it's like, no, no, not this time, you know, but he was great today.

• 39:55Speaker 02

  And not just that I got this, guys, but he is good right now. He's playing tremendous defense on Brunson in particular, on the ball, but like really, really high level stuff. And he'll come up with huge rebounds, huge hustle plays, he's doing all that. He will also, at one point in literally every game, commit one of the dumbest fouls against a three-point shooter you have ever seen in your life. And so like, you just have to live with it and you just have to accept that in the balance, OG Ananobe is going to get three free throws, but you're going to get all this great defense and this great driving and this important scoring. He just does so much for them.

• 40:26Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it's like, I feel the same way about my dog Murph. We were having a great day today.

• 40:32Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 40:33Bill Simmons?

  Preparing, I was preparing for rewatchables tomorrow, taping, preparing for this pod. It's a wonderful day. And then all of a sudden, he just walked right into the pool. And it's like, why'd you do that? And he's like, I don't know. I don't know why I did it. But it was a special day and I didn't let it mar the day for me.

• 40:47Speaker 02

  There you go.

• 40:49Bill Simmons?

  So yeah, I think we hit everything. Prediction for game four?

• 40:54Speaker 02

  Do we have to if we've we've just been wrong in this entire playoffs?

• 40:57Bill Simmons?

  I did not make an official prediction. I did bet on San Antonio today, but I had a Fanduel bet, which I think I lost because I think Harper missed the steal. But I didn't, I honestly had genuinely had no idea what was going to happen tonight. There was like five different scenarios and I would have believed all the scenarios, including San Antonio just getting waxed.

• 41:18Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 41:19Bill Simmons?

  And at halftime, I wasn't exactly racing to bet the Spurs, right down seven. It felt like the Knicks kind of had it. So, um, so there'll be no Trump. It'll be a lot easier to get into game four, um, a lot less of a circus. And if I'm the Knicks, I'm hoping Wemby's a little more tired than he was today.

• 41:39Speaker 02

  Could be. If, if forced to pick, I think the Knicks will win game four. Um, I don't feel great about it. I think they will win game four. As someone who would love to see a 2-2 game five, I hope that's not the case, but I don't know. I just, I have come to respect so much about the way New York answers basically any challenge and their resourcefulness in terms of their playmaking and the way that they will tap into. Like, I just fully expect Michael Bridges to come up with like 18 critical points in game four and Cat to be a really important playmaker again and Landry Shamet's shooting to come back on track. It's just kind of what they've done. So if, if, if I have to choose, I think that's what's probably going to happen. But honestly, who can trust any of our predictions at this point?

• 42:24Bill Simmons?

  Do we pour one out? I'm not going to actually pour one on my desk. For the Knicks, April 23rd was their last loss. It's now June 8th, June 8th, 15th anniversary of the day we launched Grantland, by the way. Shout out to June 8th.

• 42:37Speaker 02

  Congrats.

• 42:38Bill Simmons?

  Uh, thanks. Um, no longer exists, but it was a great site that I love very much. Um, but yeah, April 23rd to June 8th, legendary streak. Here's, this is not a prediction.

• 42:52Bill Simmons?

  But this is what I think will be the key to game four.

• 42:56Bill Simmons?

  I think that Spurs open threes are going to be even more open in game four. I think from what you've seen, when you look at,

• 43:04Bill Simmons?

  what do we have? We had Fox 0 for 5, Castle 2 for 5, Harper 1 for 8. Kelton Johnson wouldn't shoot any of them. Champagny and Vessel were 6 for 11. I just think they give those guards those threes and play off the ball. Go way under the picks. And guys, we don't think you can make these. Knock them down for us. And if the Spurs knock them down, they're going to go back 2-2. And if they don't knock them down, they're down 3-1.

• 43:30Speaker 02

  Yeah, that is kind of the crunch when the Spurs do play their three guards together. And they seem to like closing that way, at least for part of the fourth quarter and crunch time, if not the entire time.

• 43:40Bill Simmons?

  Ball handling.

• 43:41Speaker 02

  A lot of ball handling. But if all three of those guards are not defended, and I would say at minimum, they're not defended in the way that Vassell and Champagny are. Like, the Knicks hug those shooters a little bit more than they do Fox and Harper and Castle. But having two of those guys off the ball, if you're going to play all three guards together, that's a lot of crunch. I don't think it's an accident that the Spurs, even though they have all that ball handling and they were able to make some things happen, also didn't have any real flow in terms of like getting an actual downhill drive that then kicked out into something on a lot of those possessions.

• 44:12Bill Simmons?

  And they were playing way off. Harper was kind of in front of the Knicks bench down the stretch. They're just playing way off him and they didn't really care if he shot and they wanted to funnel him toward Towns anyway. Spurs only had eight turnovers and 28 assists.

• 44:24Speaker 02

  That's the one. I think the 16 turnovers in game two, all that driving, all of that play, like working through pressure, eight turnovers is just unbelievable stuff.

• 44:34Bill Simmons?

  Shout out to Steve Kerr, who loves nothing more than a lot of assists and low turnovers on a box score. I'm sure he's going to look at this tomorrow and be like, wow, 28 and 8. That's wonderful. I love it. But yeah, if they're going to have less than 10 turnovers

• 44:51Bill Simmons?

  and they're going to have 32 free throws.

• 44:54Bill Simmons?

  You're probably gonna send everyone. All right, Rob Mahoney, what TV show am I? What TV show? Oh, Doc Rivers texted me and wanted to mention that they finally pulled the Wemby on Josh Hart.

• 45:04Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 45:05Bill Simmons?

  That he was pushing for that whole series. What TV show should we watch between game three and game four?

• 45:10Speaker 02

  Uh, definitely Widows Bay, which is great, although it seems like you have more mixed impressions so far.

• 45:14Bill Simmons?

  I'm gonna give it one more episode. I'm two in.

• 45:16Speaker 02

  You know what's starting right now, though, that definitely has my attention is this Cape Fear remake on Apple TV.

• 45:22Bill Simmons?

  Saw both. Saw both episodes.

• 45:24Speaker 02

  Oh, just you wait for three.

• 45:26Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 45:27Speaker 02

  Things, things are getting very spicy, very interesting. If you like a little bit of trash in your TV, which Cape Fear certainly is, I just think you're gonna have a great sweaty Georgian time with it. So come along for the ride for that.

• 45:40Bill Simmons?

  Well, we're doing From Hell Rewatchables right now, and the show does check some of my boxes. Most importantly, the really stupid either father, mother, or both. And in this case, both of them are really stupid and just seem oblivious to a lot of the things that are happening, which I always enjoy.

• 45:57Speaker 02

  You got dumb, you got dumb parents, you got outright stalking, you have a lot of like ominous dead animals. I mean, what more could you ask?

• 46:04Bill Simmons?

  You've severed digits. Yeah, it's good. I would, when I saw they were making it, I was like, ah, why? Why are we, come on, why? Why are we, but then Scorsese's an EP.

• 46:14Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 46:15Bill Simmons?

  They got, uh, they got Anton Chigurh, he's the lead guy. Good to see him again. He must have survived the car accident. But yeah, no, it was good. I liked the first two episodes. All right, Rob Mahoney, this was a, a true pleasure and a privilege to stay up late with you.

• 46:30Speaker 02

  Likewise.

• 46:31Bill Simmons?

  Game three. We're gonna take a break and we're gonna come back with your friend Kyle Mann. We're gonna talk a little NBA draft right after this. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra, the official beer partner of the NBA. My favorite NBA Finals moment ever. Well, I have two. One was when I was six years old and I went to the famous triple overtime game in 1976, Boston versus Phoenix, that the Celtics won and became, I still think the most famous NBA game of all time. It's either that or one of the Jordan games. I like to claim it as the most famous since I was there, but the other one was, uh, game five, 1984 Finals, 2-2 Lakers Celtics, and it is so hot in the Boston Garden

• 47:12Bill Simmons?

  that people are passing out in the stands, everyone's sweating all over the place, the Lakers are taking oxygen on the bench and. Larry Bird, unfazed. I think he had 35 points, 20 rebounds, was just awesome. And won the game, gave them the 3-2 lead. They won in seven, and that is my favorite finals game ever. There's a lot of great moments. I was lucky to be there, by the way. There's a lot of great moments on the court, but the best ones are served cold, just like Michelob Ultra, right here. A superior light beer that's only 95 calories. Yeah, 95 calories. Even better, they're getting people closer to the game with a chance to win tickets, custom merch, and much more. Michelob Ultra Superiors worth playing for. Enter now at michelobultra.com/courtside.

• 47:57Bill Simmons?

  Michelob Ultra Courtside 25-26. No purchase necessary. Open to U.S. residents 21+. Begins on October 1st, 2025. Ends on June 30th, 2026. Multiple entry periods. See official rules at michelobultra.com/courtside for free entry, entry deadlines, and prizes and details. It's finally here, the NBA Finals, Spurs vs Knicks. Each game, I've been looking at the matchups and sharing my favorite picks from FanDuel Sportsbook on my Twitter feed. Usually a same-game parlay, usually tied to, if you think one of the sides is going to win, here is what I think the roadmap would be. So, we'll see. I definitely have 48 hours to think about what happened in game three and how that might affect game

• 48:40Bill Simmons?

  four. Stay tuned on Wednesday for the pick. When I bet, I bet FanDuel, a brand I trust. It's easy to build NBA bets on FanDuel. Super duper easy. Easier each year. 2026, the easiest year it's ever been. I know I'm getting great odds, payouts on my parlays, boosts every day, and I'll get my winnings instantly. FanDuel, play your game. All right, Jay Kyle Man is here from The Ringer. He is on the Ringer NBA Show. He is one of the many good people that help with our Ringer NBA Draft Guide, which I love. We're two weeks away, plus a day, Kyle Man. This is some draft. I've changed my opinion on the order of the top four 17 times. I have no idea who's going fifth or picking

• 49:24Bill Simmons?

  fifth. I have no idea what OKC is going to do with 12 and 17. We have no idea if the Bucks are going to have 10 and 13 if they trade Giannis in time. What's the biggest up-in-the-air subplot to you that's not one of the top four picks?

• 49:41Speaker 03

  Oh, I mean, yeah, you said you've changed yours at 17. I'm probably gonna, if I can be shy of like 25 changes at the top, that'll be good. But aside from that, because I'm gonna state some strong opinions that I have that might still change. I think the biggest thing, and I think this is probably, you've been doing this longer than I have, but inevitably, you start, you start thinking about the playoff lens.

• 50:05Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 50:05Speaker 03

  Specifically, if you think of, you know, being in the NBA as, you know, a poker table where there's a buy-in, you know, like, what does it cost to sit down at this table? What is it, what does it take? I think that these playoffs, specifically, like, if you just watch the Thunder and the Spurs, and you imagine those teams are gonna be around for how long? Some form of those teams dominated by these big guards, these incredible rangy bigs. I think how this affects these guards at the top, because we have talked about this, this assumed order where we're like, well, you know, the next guy's that you gotta take. And you look at every mock draft, it's like, you gotta take one of those guards. You have to do it. There's a gun to your head. And the more that I watch these playoffs, and I see guys like Shay, you know, Shay, or Stephon Castle, or Dylan Harper bulldozing

• 50:49Speaker 03

  every living, breathing human in front of him, I'm like, who, who, who is not gonna get picked on? Is a question that I've asked myself a lot. When I watch these guys, when I watch a Kingston Flemings, who I love, when I watch a LeBaron Philon, who I love, or when I watch a Darius Aikuff, you know, who I like a lot. I have problems with Aikuff, we can talk about. But that's the biggest thing I've been thinking about is like, who's not gonna get picked on? Because in the playoffs, man, the links of your chain, if you have one that's weak, you got a big problem. And I, and that's kind of what's been on my mind with these guards lately.

• 51:20Bill Simmons?

  And also, where have we gone wrong in the past? And I think Castle is a great example. Where you only have one year to watch a guy, he's on a great team, that didn't really need his offense that much. He was relegated to a role. People overlooked some stuff with him, especially the pedigree, and he ends up going forth, which is just nuts when you go back and you look at that draft, though. It's insane. I look at Mara like that, the center, which I've seen in different mock drafts. He'll be in like the mid-teens in some, and like, people will be like, oh, I just don't think there's any way he's not a top 10 pick with what we're watching, with how many guards are in this draft, and you can't tell me that every team needs a guard. At some point, somebody from eight to 10.

• 52:05Bill Simmons?

  Is either that's picking in those spots or is going to try to trade up to those spots because they don't really need a guard like OKC is a great example. OKC doesn't need another guard, but they need somebody like Mara is somebody that could actually potentially play for them and give them Hartenstein insurance. So I just feel like he's going eight to 10. And I feel like one of these guards is going to drop because this is what we've seen the cluster theory. I've seen five. I looked at a mock today. I think it was it was Sam Vescini on a it was Vescini or Vescini. I screwed. I'm sorry, Sam.

• 52:39Speaker 03

  Unless he hasn't corrected me his.

• 52:41Bill Simmons?

  That's my pronunciation dyslexia. Sam Vescini had Filon, I think, dropping out of the top 15. It's going to happen with one of these point guards and we're going to think it's crazy when it happens. Yeah.

• 52:54Speaker 03

  Yeah, yeah.

• 52:55Bill Simmons?

  Well, think about it. How many teams are like, all right, this is an awesome draft. This is a real pedigree pick and I don't need a guard. Why do I have to take Filon? I don't know. I just think weird stuff's going to happen when we get out of the top four. And that's before we get into all the trade up, trade down stuff, which I think is really in play this year.

• 53:14Speaker 03

  Well, this might interest you because you're the you're one of the basketball reference filter, you know, aficionados. I know you love to go on these dives.

• 53:21Bill Simmons?

  I did.

• 53:22Speaker 03

  On I went on last five playoffs. So going back to, you know, the Warriors, sorry to bring this up, but the Warriors win over the Celtics in 22. I hope I'm not fired for doing that. But over 100 minutes played for guards who are 6'2" or under. Some of these guys were listed at like 6'4" and we saw that there was some, you know, smoke and mirrors with that. But the players who are productive at that size in the playoffs for multiple games for a heavy minute load, it's not a long list. You're talking about guys who kind of get cups of coffee, who are quick in and outs. I mean, you could go down into the Schroders, into the Monte Morris's, into the, you know, Fred Van Vliets. But really, you're talking about high impact players. It's Steph Curry, obviously, it's Peyton

• 54:05Speaker 03

  Pritchard, who, you know, Jalen Brunson, Donovan Mitchell, Tyrese Maxey, Ja Morant. And if you kind of go through and look at those guys, it's like, well, what's the common denominator there? I think it's that you, if you're going to be that size, you need to have a superpower. I mean, and the question I've been asking myself is like, Could we see those superpowers when these guys were coming out? Or did we just miss them? You know, with Brunson, I think there were some things that we missed, even though I liked him, like some of the things that we're going to translate for him. Peyton Pritchard, I think I missed a lot with him, his ball handling. You as a Celtics fan, what do you, his handling really is his superpower, right? He's become a good shooter. Is there anything else that you would say?

• 54:42Bill Simmons?

  I would say the one on one skills. I just think we fucked up the Brunson thing and I, I'm 99.9% sure I went kind of haywire about it during the draft that he fell out of the first round. Just because he was just a pure awesome point guard. Like you couldn't tell me he wasn't a rotation guy for somebody. And I didn't like, that just seemed like a classic overthink. But I see your point with the size though. Curry, I wouldn't count because I think Curry is at least, I've stood next to him. He's at least 6'3". I don't know what he's listed at, but I don't know. He, I thought he was at least, I thought he was at least two inches taller than me. But I also feel like he's a little stronger. Like I, I don't, Acuff to me is the one for this conversation.

• 55:27Bill Simmons?

  Cause if you're taking him, you better think he is a really, really high end, special offensive guard. That's the only way you can justify putting him in the top seven. You have to think he's like a 25, eight, 40% three point shooter. Really uncoverable at the end of games where teams are going to have to trap him. That, that would be like the roadmap for him being worth that pick because defensively it's not going to be there.

• 55:54Speaker 03

  Well, I think the line of question you have to go into with Acuff is we all kind of know about the defensive stuff. That's been well documented. If you watch him there, you could pick at him for the physical issues where it's like, I've kind of wondered if he's laterally very mobile, if he's going to, he's not like a super vertical athlete, things like that. He's going to get attacked. You know, Brunson is good of a player. Brunson's very competitive defensively and he still gets attacked. He does what he can. You kind of have to ask yourself, is this, you know, something that was a bug of, of this Arkansas team this past year where he carried one of the biggest offensive loads in the country? They, he was the only guy on their team that was capable of making like a consistent, good decision.

• 56:36Speaker 03

  He ran that team and did he have to kind of rest on, on defense at times? Devonta kind of had the same thing going on at BYU? Or is it something that he could just choose to, and we're overrating this, you know, we're maybe leaning into this too much.

• 56:48Bill Simmons?

  No, we're not overrating it. We're not overrating it.

• 56:51Speaker 03

  Just asking questions.

• 56:52Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, yeah, no, I think it's a fair question, but the question is, is the other stuff so good, you just, just put it on the side? Everybody's got some flaws, right? Castle, even Castle, who I love, has that kind of Westbrook side where he's a little out of control at, at the worst possible times, and that's his flaw.

• 57:13Bill Simmons?

  The, I, I get more worried about a guy like Brown. And Brown has creeped up. He's creeped up to five in the conversation for the Clippers. Cause the Clippers are basically like, we're not taking point guard. We just went all in on Garland. So unless we trade back, it's either Wogler or Brown or Burris. It's gonna be one of those three. And you're higher on Brown than most. You really like, I don't know, you seem like you at least really like the ceiling.

• 57:40Speaker 03

  Are you doing the Louisville thing to me?

• 57:42Bill Simmons?

  Well, you like the idea of him. I just, but you, you also recognize the red flags.

• 57:49Speaker 03

  I've kind of like worked through my cautious optimism with him through this offseason because this, the regular season was just weird, man. I mean, like he, he was, he, you could go into the speculation about why that stuff happened. I'm not willing to like openly, just like you, if you're gonna do that, you have to like throw people personally under the bus. I don't, I'm not gonna go that direction at like right now, but like if you watch him, his consistency as a shooter, can he get to the rim and score? I mean, those are the two basic things. And if you, if you're gonna be the player type that he is, uh, and have big struggles in that area, and then also are you gonna be, you know, vulnerable defensively? I think those three things are very much up in the air with him right now.

• 58:29Speaker 03

  And if you, if you look at, uh, I, I've compared him to, he's, he's definitely in the like phylum of Anthony Simons and Keonte George for me, which is.

• 58:41Speaker 03

  Your face said a lot there. If he's gonna be an inefficient skinny guard who can't get to the rim and he's streaky from three, that's an archetype that's, you're gonna at best could be like, be like the third scorer on a team, I think, right? It's hard to be the primary if you're gonna be that, that type of player.

• 58:57Bill Simmons?

  My weakness is when I, and I, I feel like I've been good at evaluating the draft for, for over the years. I think my, I've had more hits than misses. My two weaknesses are when there's not enough kinda, kinda data slash tape on a guy and you're projecting, like somebody like Wiseman. I just completely missed on Wiseman. There was, basically didn't play any games and you're just basically looking at the, the prototype of him versus what he actually did. The other one that kills me over and over again is the raw talent could go either way guy. I just tend to discount those guys. They make, they make me nervous. Like to me, I would just, I know Burris is gonna be good. I'm positive. I don't know how good he is. I don't know if he can be a lead guard that can run your offense, because we, we would have said with Castle,

• 59:42Bill Simmons?

  even the stuff he was doing in the two OKC games without Fox and with a compromised Harper, like, I don't think anybody would have predicted he could have done that two years ago. And I wonder with Burris, like, I know that's, like, he's a prototypical two. Is he ever gonna be able to beat people off the dribble? I'm just betting on that dude. I'm betting on the competitiveness. I think he has the right size. And I think we always forget this with these young guys. Like, the stuff they're missing now might not be stuff they're missing five years from now. You know, they're gonna work on this and they're gonna try to get better and better at the things they're not good at. I'm betting on that guy. So if I'm the Clippers, and it's between Wogler and Burris, and I know Wogler has the higher pedigree, I would just rather trade picks with Sacramento, pick up an asset and take Burris at seven. I think that's a smarter move.

• 1:00:27Speaker 03

  Yeah, if you look at the, these finals and you look at the Western Conference Finals, I've circled back, I've liked Burris the whole process, but I've, I've felt pretty validated in liking him a lot and having him high, watching these playoffs, because I think if you just, if you look at how you're building teams, I mean, if you have any kind of a weakness, if you look at just even like the Knicks and the Spurs, the Spurs have a few weaknesses that the, that the Knicks are, are picking at, you know, and the Spurs came into this series Looking at the Knicks thinking, thinking there were some weaknesses that have turned out not to be. So I just think, and I've watched Burries and, and looked at these series and thought to myself, I could see, I could have seen him logging big minutes, not just minutes, like being seriously on the floor a lot in that Thunder Spurs series or this finals. And if you look at some of these other guys, I'm not sure about that with

• 1:01:12Speaker 03

  Michael Brown. Um, you know, I'm not as sure about that with Darius. It could happen because Brunson is kind of in the same mold as, as, uh, as, uh, as Darius Aikuff, but I'm pretty sure about Burries being on the floor.

• 1:01:25Bill Simmons?

  Me too. I'm all in on Burries. And Aikuff, the problem with him is you worry that 20 years from now, he's a, Darius Aikuff was a problem. He's one of those guys. And he, he basically played in five playoff games, the first five years of his career, but has this incredible five minute Twitter. This episode is brought to you by Expedia. You know how at the end of the season, your team goes to Cancun, sometimes earlier than expected, sometimes after blowing a 3-1 series lead. But what if you went to Cancun with Expedia? Save up to 30% when you bundle and save. You can book the flight or the hotel now, then book the rest later. In all fairness, though, hopefully your team doesn't go to Cancun. One, two, three, Cancun. Or if they do, you go with them. Expedia, the one place you go to go places. Sign in to save. Savings vary.

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• 1:02:56Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by Sony Pictures Classics. A perfect crime film, says the Daily Beast. John Tortore gives a career best performance. Don't miss the acclaimed new thriller, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York. Tortore stars as an aging master pickpocket, whose latest score puts him in the crosshairs of a ruthless crime family. It's also starring Giancarlo Esposito, Tatiana Maslany, Will Price, and our guy, Steve Buscemi. See the film that the LA Times calls instantly classic. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York opens in theaters October 23rd in New York and Los Angeles nationwide October 30th. Tape. I think the center, I was really impressed by him in the tournament.

• 1:03:41Bill Simmons?

  I think his tape's really good. His passing is pretty special for his size.

• 1:03:45Speaker 03

  Mara?

• 1:03:45Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:03:46Speaker 03

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:03:47Bill Simmons?

  Like, his passing is pretty special. Like, unusual. I just like him. And if, like, if I'm at Atlanta at eight, I'm really thinking about it. Because I don't really, I just committed to, I committed to Dyson 25 million a year. I paid Alexander Walker. I have Jalen Johnson. So at that point, I'm either, if I go back in and I re-sign McCollum, which I think they're probably going to do, I don't really need a point guard, combined with the fact that the point guard hit or miss rate is pretty high, whereas like a center, I felt the same way a couple of years ago with, with Klingon, who everybody seemed just hesitant to take in the top 10 for some reason. It's like, why?

• 1:04:31Bill Simmons?

  This guy's, you know, this guy's potentially a premier rim defender and a really good rebounder. Like, worst case scenario, this is a guy that's going to be a $25 million a year player if he pans out. And I feel the same way about Mara. I just, I just can't see him dropping out of the top 10 with how few centers there are.

• 1:04:50Speaker 03

  Yeah, he's, he's one of those. There's this funny phenomenon that happens whenever phenomenon. It's just a funny thing that happens whenever I'm watching a player, a certain like today I was watching Bruce Thornton from Ohio State, who's a little puck scoring guard that you may learn about, you may not. He's one of these guys that may make it. We'll see, but he's kind of a bowling ball, but they were playing Michigan and I was keeping an eye on Bruce Thornton and I kept getting distracted by Mara. Like I was trying to focus on Thornton, but there was a play where Mara was on the short corner on the right side and he got double teamed and he reached blind around the double team and whipped it with his left hand to the opposite corner on a dime. And I was just like, God, like it's hard to focus when it's 7-3. And you talk about Klingon, Mara's bigger than

• 1:05:34Speaker 03

  Klingon. He's huge. So if it's, we've entered this time too, where, you know, I always say with Wimby, you can't fight fire with fire with him because there just is no one his size, but Mara is a better mover than I think he gets credit for. He tries to dunk everything. He's not, he's got kind of a, he's got kind of a shot put, you know, baby hook thing that he does around the rim, but he tries to dunk everything. He's defensively really competitive. I think for the Hawks, you'd, you'd be presenting some like spacing, spacing questions because you'd have Daniels out there and Jalen Johnson and you know, but they'd be big and they would just kind of bludgeon people. So, I mean, and defensively, I think he's going to be pretty good. So I'm, I'm with you on Mara. I'm, I have him in the teens right now, but that could change, but.

• 1:06:17Bill Simmons?

  How high, how high before it becomes offensive to you? Like anything higher than eight is, would be pretty stupid, I think, right?

• 1:06:25Speaker 03

  That'd be tough.

• 1:06:26Bill Simmons?

  I think eight's like, yeah, it's around there.

• 1:06:30Speaker 03

  Cause there's, I mean, it's not a sure thing because we talked about Malawatch last year, who I, I had big reservations about and it's like he had some moments this year, but it's not a sure thing with him. It's, it's those guys, how well they move in space. Cause I think Klingon didn't get enough credit for how well he could sit down and move in space either. So is Mara going to be that good? I'm not so sure, but it's, it's tricky for those guys to survive in space.

• 1:06:51Bill Simmons?

  Better in college. Well, Fylon's the guy who's going to go five to seven picks later than he should and it's going to be stupid and he's going to have a big chip on his shoulder. I'm just telling people that's going to happen now. Um, the Tennessee kid has been. Circulating in the top 10. And again,

• 1:07:08Speaker 03

  I thought you were trying to provoke me over text with that the other day.

• 1:07:11Bill Simmons?

  Well, as always, these kids are right around the age of my, my son and my daughter. And I'm more sensitive than ever about being mean about NBA prospects. But like, there was a Brooklyn story the other day about they might be interested in, in Amen as, as high as six. And

• 1:07:30Bill Simmons?

  I, I just think that would be insane. And I get it. It's pedigree from high school. He was one of the top guys heading into college. Season wasn't as good as you thought, but I just, I can't picture him in the, in either of the three, either of the two conference finals we watched, or the finals we're watching now. I just don't think he plays.

• 1:07:51Speaker 03

  No, yeah, it, it, him getting, he's a perceived shot maker who's incredibly streaky. Can he get to the spots he likes to get to? He's really, really rough around the rim and I, I was shocked by that report. On the one hand, I was shocked and when I saw who it was attributed to in terms of the team that was thinking about it. I was like, this makes no sense. I would not do this. Granted, they're thinking that. Okay, that makes sense. The thinking of putting him next to Jaeger, who I like with conditions, like I like Jaeger in certain narrow conditions. Like you're going to have a guy who can, and I, and I want to get guys who are as unconditional as possible. Like you would fit in as many situations as are possible. I don't want to have a role player that I have to have these very narrow circumstances that they work in.

• 1:08:36Speaker 03

  And if I'm going to take five playmaking players who are all rough shooters, one year and then take a 6'9" guy who can't get to the rim and is a shaky spacer the next year. I don't understand, because that was in the tweet, wasn't it? That Jaeger and Nate Amen like fit together? I don't see that at all. I don't, I don't think that makes sense at all.

• 1:08:55Bill Simmons?

  Don't, don't use your picks this year to make up for some weird strategies of the year ago. I do think that's a trade down team with OKC though. And I don't know what their appetite is for trading backwards. But if I could get 12 and 17 and I could get more stuff from OKC beyond that, basically make them pay 140 cents on the dollar, I would really think about that. Because I like this draft a lot. And I think, as we said, like, there's going to be a couple of guys that fall. And at 12 and 17, you might get a guy who, one, one guy at least who ends up better than the guy at six. I normally don't like those trades, but I think this is such a unique draft. As long as you're not trading out of the top four. Anywhere from five 17, like who the fuck knows? It's gonna be like every other draft.

• 1:09:38Bill Simmons?

  The big things that are shifting is there's Boozer momentum in a real way now that he might end up just going first. I think as everybody looks at these tapes and the advanced metrics, the comparisons to guys from over the years, it's just like, alright, maybe we don't overthink this. This guy is a 23 and 11 in the pros for 10 straight years. What's wrong with that?

• 1:10:05Speaker 03

  Yeah, well, I was gonna ask you, talk me through that your Friday night when I initially sent that to you and Tate and House where I was, I was sitting over dinner and I just did like a thousand yard stare where I was thinking for a minute. My wife's, you know, waving her hand in front of my face like, what are you thinking about? I was thinking about Boozer where I had this epiphany where I was like, man, if the Wizards want to be a serious team in short order and make all the, not that you need to think about the players you have always, but in this case, you would check both boxes. He would make every player that they have right now better instantly, I think. He'd help Sar. I think he'd make Trey Johnson, Kasha George, Bub Carrington, all those dudes. He'd make them better. Well, I mean, that was the conclusion I came to initially. Did you, were you feeling that way and then you came to it or how did that go down?

• 1:10:48Bill Simmons?

  I didn't love the March Madness watching him where it just felt like he was one of those, let me put my head down and ram into the door over and over again, guys. Right? They were there. I didn't understand why he didn't have a 15 footer yet, but then the more I thought about it as well, in three years from now, he probably will. Right? So we've seen him be able to like bully his way to different spots. We've seen him be able to shoot from distance and he'll probably add the other thing. The playmaking, the rebounding, like the feel for the game, like he's always in the right spots and he's just, it's a weird thing to say. It's a weird thing to say as like a scouting report thing, but he just feels like a guy who's just been in big basketball games like his entire fucking life. Like, and he's just seen it all.

• 1:11:33Bill Simmons?

  He's not a, you know, there's some late bloomer guys that make it, but in his case, like. I just don't think he's gonna be phased. I could totally see him in the last month of basketball we watched and all of these different things. Like you could argue like if he was on the Spurs, that's I the perfect guy you would want for them at the four next to Wemby, right? So I I've been thinking a lot because I do think the Vance is gonna go first regardless of how we try to talk the Boozer thing. I just think he's gonna go first.

• 1:12:03Bill Simmons?

  I think Danny is such a wild card at second and there's no way to predict it and it's gonna come down. He's gonna take all the input from everybody, but it's ultimately come down. He's gonna be watching these guys and he's gonna hone in on some sort of specific thing that he's been able to do over and over again. He did it with Tatum. He did it with Brown. He did it when he was gonna take Durant. He over and over again, he looks at like the high end talent guys and just is able to project them. And you would think it's gonna happen with Peterson, but I I think there's too many red flags. I don't I think he's gonna stay away from Peterson and I could see him taking Boozer at two would be my that would

• 1:12:42Bill Simmons?

  be like my my my Y and S 130 bet right now. I might be wrong, but I really think they're gonna take Boozer. I do. I don't I can't explain it. I think they're gonna take Boozer at two.

• 1:12:54Speaker 03

  You think the Jazz are gonna take Boozer at two? That'd be interesting way based on what because that would be going with what we were talking about, like just taking a guy because you like him because at three, four, five, the Jazz, I mean, you went out of your way to get Jaren Jackson and you have Lowry Markkinen, you have Kessler, you have, you know, Ace Bailey. I was gonna thinking about Ace Bailey, though. What do you think the compare and contrast there is situation like his situation last year at five? I mean, remember, it's easy to forget.

• 1:13:20Bill Simmons?

  And what did he do? They went for the talent, right?

• 1:13:23Speaker 03

  And they were just they were like, yes, we know there's a lot of noise around that. Ainge just has a way of just being like, I'm not. I kind of feel like he has a way of not being as bothered by some of that stuff, right? Like he he just kind of wasn't weren't there kind of questions about Tate Tatum having distraction around him too, when he was coming in where people are like, I don't know, you know, you're you probably remember that better, but I feel like I remember hearing things about that with Tatum when he was coming in.

• 1:13:47Bill Simmons?

  Well, think about when they but think about when they did the Tatum move. They already had Jaylen Brown and they had Hayward, right? So it's like, and when when they did their trade down and they were gonna take Tatum, it was like, well, this is weird. They're gonna take another wing? How many wings do you need? But his attitude was, this is where basketball is going. I don't think you can have enough wings. We're gonna have awesome wings out there all the time. We'll have at least two, we'll play three together, and that's how we're gonna think. So that's why with the Boozer thing, I can't shake the feeling I have in my gut that he's just gonna be like, well, we have too many forwards and like, we don't have enough guards. Well, is it a bad thing to have size and shooting all over the place and interchangeability?

• 1:14:30Bill Simmons?

  And, you know, if marketing would be the piece that I guess you would, you could potentially trade or move or move for a guard. But I think it's way harder to find good forwards than good guards right now.

• 1:14:42Speaker 03

  Yeah, I mean, forwards with the skills that Boozer has.

• 1:14:46Bill Simmons?

  Skilled forwards is a premium, you know?

• 1:14:49Speaker 03

  His dad also is.

• 1:14:51Bill Simmons?

  Well, that's the other thing. They're under the hood with Boozer. They're under the hood with Boozer and DeBansa. They know those kids. They know the families, like, they know those guys would be happy in Utah, which is a whole other piece. And Peterson's like such a wild card. And the season he had was weird. What am I bringing in? What if he doesn't like it here? What happened to him last year? What was that creatine thing? You know, if he takes Peterson, then that will make me think Peterson is gonna be awesome. Because that would mean Danny's like, I've overlooked all these other red flags. I'm not gonna take this guy that I know is gonna be good because I think this guy might be Kobe. Right? So if they take him second, I feel like he would have to have landed on that.

• 1:15:33Bill Simmons?

  And I know it's like his son's there, Austin, and the owner's there. I know it's not gonna be Danny's call, but they're gonna... He's too good at this. Like, at some point, if he's convinced on a certain guy, that's gonna, I think, be the guy they take.

• 1:15:46Speaker 03

  I think of the top three guys. I mean, Peterson's personality on his team and his dynamic with his teammates is obviously the most in question. And this year, you know, after the year that we just saw Boozer, you never hear a word about him as a teammate. DeBansa, I mean, DeBansa, I haven't heard anything like that. I mean, you know, I know his dad's really involved. He's a real no-nonsense dude, but I haven't heard anything like... You just don't hear the same things about those two guys as opposed to Peterson, so.

• 1:16:16Bill Simmons?

  And it's not like we're hearing bad stuff about Peterson. There's just like,

• 1:16:19Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:16:20Bill Simmons?

  That this is a pick that could make or break.

• 1:16:23Speaker 03

  Was odd.

• 1:16:24Bill Simmons?

  Well, I think Fultz is who's a completely different story and a completely different guy is a good prism to look at this. Like you missed that Fultz pick and don't take Tatum. That set you back five years, you know, and you're betting on somebody that wasn't physically a hundred percent. And, you know, maybe wasn't wired the same way Tatum was and it worked out the way it did. So with Peterson, I think the Peterson one is the toughest dilemma in a long time with the high school tape versus what happened in the past year. And I don't know. I don't think there's a right answer. I don't think somebody can be five years from now like, I told you, like, there's no way to know. It's too separate. Cause that high school tape we've talked about is some of the best high school tape I've

• 1:17:05Bill Simmons?

  ever seen of a guard. And I, and maybe Danny would watch that and go, ah, but the thing is, if Boozer goes two, is Memphis really going to take Peterson three? Cause that would be weird too. Like, I think that I really think there's a chance Peterson go four and we, and Givony was on somewhere was saying like Peterson is the best prospect in this draft. He should go first. I don't know. I could see him going fourth too. It's such a hard one to, uh, to target.

• 1:17:35Speaker 03

  I'd go ahead and take him if I'm Memphis. I mean, you think about Howard and Peterson together. Why not? What's the, was, is there something that you, what are you worried about with him? I mean, he could come in and be your best player the way he wants. They have some guys there already. I mean, think about idiot of five if he's healthy.

• 1:17:51Bill Simmons?

  Is it Wilson the most Memphis guy possible? Other than maybe Boozer?

• 1:17:55Speaker 03

  I would say Boozer is the most Memphis guy. I think Akos has a lot of Memphis to him too. Um, yeah. Uh, Wilson doesn't strike me. I mean, we're just, we're, you know, putting the personality of our franchises on a guy. I mean, Wilson doesn't strike me as much as, as Memphis-y, but Wilson's the interesting one. Cause you'll hear people.

• 1:18:14Bill Simmons?

  Well, I was out with Wilson. I was just talking about the guy. Fucking gives a shit and tries his ass off. And that's like, kind of the culture they've tried to build over the last 20 years.

• 1:18:24Speaker 03

  I think all four of these guys do. So that's the thing. It's just, I think, you know,

• 1:18:28Bill Simmons?

  You can't say that about Peterson. That, that's, I mean, he was just, he was just leaving games and not coming back. Like, I don't know. I know weird shit was going on them physically, but that's still a red flag for me.

• 1:18:41Speaker 03

  And I polled some people about the creatine thing and they acted like that was not, not, kind of flimsy. I, I heard some, some mixed responses to that. Yeah.

• 1:18:52Speaker 03

  I, he's the most talented shot maker in the draft and I think he's the most talented scorer in the draft. I don't, it's not close, but that, like we've talked about, you know, he, you can't just draft a guy for talent. Because if we were just drafting people for talent, it's your personality, your, how you jive with your teammates. All those things matter. You know, and so, you know, I watched in Kentucky at a high school event, I watched AJ and Darren go head to head. And Darren was better, like, pretty clearly, not even close. I mean, he kind of dominated and, and you hear stories from people who have watched many of those matchups and said Darren won every single time. What do you think about that? You know, it's like, he's, he's going to be an elite dribble pull-up shooter. I think he'll be able to play off the ball. He is great middle game. He's a great athlete.

• 1:19:36Speaker 03

  Is he like a super duper elite athlete? I don't know, but he's a very good one. And I think he's a good passer. I think at times, guys have to make shots for your numbers to look good at times.

• 1:19:46Bill Simmons?

  Sounds like you're back in on him.

• 1:19:48Speaker 03

  Well, this is, this is the, this is the maddening thing about these, this top four is that I have gone back and forth over and over again. Right now, I'm kind of sitting at, I kind of think I would take Boozer one. I know House wants his, his shot making, you know, sexy score. Something to be excited about for the future. I think the most, I'll say it again. I think the most efficient, direct, straight line way for the Washington Wizards to be a great basketball team is to take Boozer first. And I, I think they'd be good. They'd be serious. They'd be like playing possibly by next year. I think that, that could be possible for them.

• 1:20:21Bill Simmons?

  Wow.

• 1:20:23Speaker 03

  You don't agree?

• 1:20:25Bill Simmons?

  No, I.

• 1:20:28Bill Simmons?

  DeBance reclass, I'm at the mode now with the research where I'm like doing reclassifying research, how DeBance reclassified after eighth grade. And he's actually, I think he's 10 or 11 months older than Flag.

• 1:20:43Speaker 03

  I think they're like a month apart, if I'm not mistaken.

• 1:20:46Bill Simmons?

  Is that what it is? Hold on.

• 1:20:46Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:20:47Bill Simmons?

  So Flag, Flag's December 2006. Oh, you're right.

• 1:20:52Speaker 03

  Loser's August.

• 1:20:53Bill Simmons?

  Flag's a month older than DeBance.

• 1:20:56Speaker 03

  Yes.

• 1:20:56Bill Simmons?

  That's what it is. Okay.

• 1:20:58Speaker 03

  Do you worry about that much, though? Because I'm, you know, as, as a parent, these little boys, I mean, I, you know, we, you have that conversation about when you start, because I used to think that was a big deal. And you talk with their kindergarten teachers, it's just lamer than you think. It's like, some people, I mean, if you think your son's gonna be an athlete, I guess it depends on when they move them from grade to grade. But I don't know. I'm like, Burries is a little bit older. That doesn't.

• 1:21:23Bill Simmons?

  He is. Burries is a second year guy. But people are holding that against Burries.

• 1:21:27Speaker 03

  If he were, if he were a sophomore, would you give a shit? Like, I just don't, I don't care about that. Like, you know, it's not like they're geriatric, man.

• 1:21:33Bill Simmons?

  I didn't say I care either way. I'm saying I'm at the point of the research where I'm doing the deep dive on other guys that have reclassified over the years. And it's like.

• 1:21:42Speaker 03

  I see.

• 1:21:44Bill Simmons?

  And it's like, oh, Josh Jackson. He was a reclassifier.

• 1:21:49Speaker 03

  I think Caleb's was similar to, to Josh Jackson, right? I mean, or not Josh Jackson, I'm thinking of Josh Smith, Josh from the Hawks, little similarity there.

• 1:22:00Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. Excitement is in the air. That's right. It's the start of NBA season. I can't wait to get together with friends, share some Michelob Ultras and watch Tip Off. Plus, as the official beer sponsor of the NBA, Michelob Ultra is getting you closer to the action with experiences that make you feel like you're courtside to actual courtside tickets. Enter now for a chance to win at michelobultra.com/courtside. Michelob Ultra Courtside 26 to 27. No purchase necessary. Open to U.S. residents 21+. Begins on October 1st, 2026. Ends on June 30th, 2027. Multiple entry periods. See official rules at michelobultra.com/courtside. For free entry, entry deadlines, prizes and details. All right, quick break. This episode is brought to you by Fire TV.

• 1:22:44Bill Simmons?

  You ever sit down, ready to watch the game, only to search and scroll endlessly? If so, you need Fire TV. It shows you are live games from your favorite teams all in one place, right on the home screen. No more searching, just sit down and turn on Fire TV. Separate subscriptions may be required. Feature and content availability may vary. Well, regardless. I would be excited to have the fourth pick of this draft. And I don't normally say that because you're getting the chip on the shoulder guy and other people are making the decision for you. And you might end up with the best guy anyway. And this has to be one of the only drafts I can remember like that. Like, I wouldn't even felt that way with the Palo Chet Jabari draft.

• 1:23:27Bill Simmons?

  This one, it's like, fuck. Might be, you might be all right at four. Washington taking Boozer at one.

• 1:23:36Bill Simmons?

  Would be the funniest outcome for a variety of reasons. Not to mention the bands that go into Utah too immediately.

• 1:23:44Bill Simmons?

  And then nobody knowing what's gonna happen after that.

• 1:23:48Bill Simmons?

  Your predictions, one through four, right now, two weeks away. What do you have?

• 1:23:52Speaker 03

  What, what will happen?

• 1:23:54Bill Simmons?

  What will happen?

• 1:23:55Speaker 03

  Not my opinion.

• 1:23:56Bill Simmons?

  Your prediction of the top four?

• 1:23:59Speaker 03

  I think AJ will go first. I think the Jazz will take Peterson. I've heard they like Peterson. I've heard Danny likes Peterson. I mean, we'll see how credible that is.

• 1:24:06Bill Simmons?

  I don't believe that because I don't, Danny doesn't reveal anything.

• 1:24:09Speaker 03

  Okay. And then, uh, let's see.

• 1:24:12Bill Simmons?

  So Peterson, Utah, and then you would have Boozer third to Memphis.

• 1:24:16Speaker 03

  Yes, he makes so much sense with the Grizzlies too.

• 1:24:18Bill Simmons?

  I mean, that's an unbelievable outcome for, outcome for Memphis.

• 1:24:23Speaker 03

  Coward, Boozer, Edie, Cam Spencer, like that. It's hilarious that I'm saying Cam Spencer fourth, but no, I mean, they got an interesting group of guys. Like, I think that'd be fun.

• 1:24:35Speaker 03

  And then Caleb with the Bulls is, that's a blast. I like it.

• 1:24:40Bill Simmons?

  Caleb with the Bulls is really fun. Right? Him, uh, Buzellis and, uh, and Giddy just kind of going up and down. Unfortunately, all the guards that they let go in February would not be there. What about our guy, uh, Yaxel at 11 with Golden State?

• 1:24:57Speaker 03

  He might not make it to 11. I've heard, I mean, I've heard talk of him as as high as like seven. So I mean, that could. I haven't checked Sam's latest one. I didn't know where he had it, but people like he would. They have a lot of fours. I mean, that's, that's the thing with Golden State. He could shoot the ball. He would fit the way that they like to play. I could see that happening.

• 1:25:20Bill Simmons?

  Cause I was thinking, no, I was thinking Mara would be a great one for them if they ended up with 11. Right? Cause the passing to me makes it makes me think that the passing and the and the pedigree of being in big games. Makes me wonder if that's a fit with them. Yeah. And you have, you have to think about. Who you're going against. Cause you know, they do think they have a chance to get LeBron in July, which I think they will. That's still my prediction. I've stood by it for two months. Then you have to think like. Well, what do we need? Yaxel for if we're gonna have LeBron playing like that same kind of three, four type of minutes.

• 1:25:57Speaker 03

  Right.

• 1:25:57Bill Simmons?

  So. Anybody dropping for you? Flemings? Is there a chance he drops out of the top 10 or is he right where he was before?

• 1:26:06Speaker 03

  He's climbing for me, actually. I liked a lot of the stuff with him and so and. At the end of the day. You bet on people. It's kind of that gets lost in this, you know, these, these guys. These guys are as much as people love to throw the analytics out there and you know, live life in a spreadsheet when it comes to the draft. You listen to Kings and Flemings talk. I've just been blown away, impressed with how sophisticated he is. I'll say who he reminds me of a little bit. It's not one to one, but he gives me some real Halliburton vibes when I listen to that kid talk. And you look at the way he gets on and off the ball. The speed, they're like, we're not quite sure where, how he scores at the next level stuff that was talked about with, he's not the same level passer.

• 1:26:51Speaker 03

  The odd shot, there are a lot of parallels between those two guys and he just seems like he'd just be a quality add. He's really strong. He might get picked on, but I like Kings and Flemings. He's climbing for me.

• 1:27:02Bill Simmons?

  People like Johnson too, is the other one that everybody likes in the interviews and the workouts who's seems like he's climbed into the mid teens. And then Lopez has dropped. Lopez was being thrown around in like that 7 or 11 range for a brief second and now it seems like he's out of the lottery. Well, we'll see what happens. Um, maybe next week, come back on. We could discuss again. Okay. We'll see if anything changes. This is right around. I feel like there's going to be a big trade too soon because like Giannis, I just, I don't think that gets super close to the draft. My guess is if there's a big trade, it would probably be after game four, before game five. I think the league likes

• 1:27:46Bill Simmons?

  to clear out the first four games of the finals and it's kind of a wink, wink with the teams. Um, but I feel like if there's going to be a big trade, I could see it be closer to the end of this week. And then, you know, Milwaukee having a chance to get potentially 10 and 13, not to mention some of those other Miami guys, like that's not bad in this draft. They might, you know, they had two swings at it here. The other one that I forgot was that Charlotte has 14 and 18.

• 1:28:08Speaker 03

  That's, that's a big deal.

• 1:28:09Bill Simmons?

  Right?

• 1:28:10Speaker 03

  Especially with the guys who might be there.

• 1:28:11Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. So you could either say, fuck it, we'll just stay here and we'll get two swings at this or try to move up if you're super excited about somebody. All right, Kyle, man. We'll see how this goes. Um, you been enjoying the playoffs?

• 1:28:26Speaker 03

  Oh, my God.

• 1:28:27Bill Simmons?

  We're recording this before game three.

• 1:28:31Bill Simmons?

  A, A minus, B plus? What's your grade for the playoffs?

• 1:28:34Speaker 03

  Uh, I, I would say my excitement level specifically for, you know, these last three series has been up there with some of the my highest excitement. This, this finals in particular, I'm, I'm just like moonwalking around during the day. Just can't wait. Just because I don't, I don't, I'm not a fan of either team. So I have nothing to lose and I just get to enjoy it. So yeah, it's been, it's been great.

• 1:28:57Bill Simmons?

  I think for me though, it's been really fun to watch the Knicks and San Antonio just as basketball teams for different reasons. The Knicks, because they've played so beautifully together and San Antonio, I just like the guys in their team. I really enjoy the experience of, of watching them, which I haven't always said with the contenders. You know.

• 1:29:15Speaker 03

  I had, I thought of something on a walk today that I wanted to run by you because you, I think you mentioned it in the mailbag. It's really strange that like the top six guys, I went back and was looking at the teams. We have young cores where guys are like really clustered together in terms of age. You the historian, how common is it to have a core that is all hitting their prime at the same time? They're like.

• 1:29:38Bill Simmons?

  The next guy, yeah.

• 1:29:40Speaker 03

  Their top six guys, I looked at it are like, they're all born within a year and four months of each other, or two years and four months of each other.

• 1:29:47Bill Simmons?

  For the next, yeah.

• 1:29:48Speaker 03

  Yeah, they're all hitting their prime. That's really, is that, I don't feel like that happens a lot.

• 1:29:53Bill Simmons?

  It's pretty unusual. I, I don't remember what the ages were with the Knicks in the late sixties, early seventies, but I feel like they were all around the same because their careers seemed to end all around the same times. But usually you end up with like a situation like Dallas where you have, you know, you have vets, you have like the older Jason Kidd type, but then you have like Chandler and Dirk around the same time. And yeah, but there, there's a little bit more of a mix. The weird thing with, with San Antonio, the cluster of the younger guys, like even somebody like Carter Bryant being 19, being like the ninth man on the team. You know, they don't have like that 34 year old, old guy bringing him out, old gunslinger,

• 1:30:35Bill Simmons?

  or like even like the Steve Kerr on 2003, they don't have any of those guys. Fox seems like the vet and Fox's 2018 draft, you know? So, yeah, it is pretty unusual. But part of it is because they didn't make the trade in February that I think they maybe would have made if they felt like this was going to happen. Like I, I do feel like they probably would have gotten some sort of physical stretch for some, just some sort of flexibility at that spot that they just, you know, I think they thought they were a year away. Um, all right, Kyle, man, we'll see you before the draft. Thanks for coming on.

• 1:31:08Speaker 03

  A pleasure.

• 1:31:10Bill Simmons?

  All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Rob Mahoney. Thanks to Kyle Mann. Thanks to Gahan Eduardo as well. And I'm going to be back with you live after Wednesday's game four with a very special guest. See you then.

• 1:31:25Bill Simmons?

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• 1:32:03Bill Simmons?

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