The AI "Copied My Homework" Scandal, Why the Strait of Hormuz Is Spiraling Out of Control, and Other Global News| Weekly Recap

What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: Want my help starting a business? Join me here inside Zero To Founder https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show Sign up for my AI Masterclass: AI Masterclass https://tombilyeu.com/ai-masterclass?utm_campaign=Live%20Masterclass&utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=evergreen FOLLOW TOM: Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok:https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter:https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Tailor Brands: Check out Tailor Brands to get started with your business today: https://bit.ly/TailorBrandsSept Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpod ElevenLabs: Book your demo at https://elevenlabs.io/impactpod Incogni: Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code IMPACT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/impact Ketone IQ: Visit https://ketone.com/IMPACT for 30% OFF your subscription order. Horizon.ai: Go to https://horizon3.ai/IMPACTTHEORY and request your free NodeZero demo. No commitment required. Results in hours, not weeks. Butcherbox: Go to https://ButcherBox.com/IMPACT https://butcherbox.com/IMPACT to get $20 off your first box, plus your choice of free ribeye, new york strip, or filet mignon in every box for a year — with free shipping always Quo: ​​Try for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months at https://quo.com/impact The team digs into a strange and revealing controversy at the frontier of AI: a potential mathematics breakthrough where humans and AI are now fighting over who deserves the credit. For about a year, NYU mathematician Tristan Buckmaster and a researcher at Anthropic had been working on an obscure approach to one of the famous Clay Institute "millennium prize" problems (with $1 million on the line)—running their drafts through private OpenAI Codex sessions hosted on OpenAI's servers. When a step forward emerged (a result related to "blow-up" in the Euler equations of fluid dynamics), accusations flew that OpenAI's model had essentially "copied their homework"—learning from their private work and then producing the result itself. The host uses it to open up what he thinks is the defining debate of the era: when you collaborate with an AI, and it helps you reach an insight you genuinely pushed it toward, who owns the result? He walks through the emerging solutions—Alex Karp of Palantir's "put something in the middle" approach, versus self-hosting an open-source model behind your own servers with your own tuned "weights" so your inputs stay proprietary even as the world uses your outputs. He's candid that he's genuinely torn: as someone building his own project (Kaizen), he admits feeling the impulse to keep some paths secret for a six-month lead, while also arguing that since AI was trained on all of humanity, there's an obligation to keep letting it aggregate humanity's breakthroughs—especially in a field like medicine, where he shares a personal story about a family member's cancer and how siloed, firewalled medical data made coordination nearly impossible. His most provocative point is psychological: that the reason people aren't celebrating even a real (if modest) step forward is a raw human fear of being made to feel irrelevant—that "I can't let it be the AI that did this." He closes on his recurring throughline: rather than running to the government to regulate AI (which he thinks would hurt the open-source models that are the real check on Big AI), the open market and open source should be allowed to solve this—letting young upstarts protect their proprietary "weights" and compete, so a handful of giant companies can't hoard the breakthroughs. The team breaks down a sharp escalation in the Iran conflict and maps how it connects to a much bigger global picture. The immediate news: an intensifying tanker war in the Strait of Hormuz, with the IRGC claiming its largest attack of the war (striking multiple vessels and claiming hits on US destroyers), the US reportedly sinking eight Iranian oil tankers over four days, and Iran launching 20 ballistic missiles at a US base in Jordan—of which Jordan says 18 were intercepted and two hit empty desert, with no casualties reported. The host stresses a key caveat: with the IRGC claiming major damage and the Pentagon denying it, the truth is genuinely murky, and neither side's account should be taken at face value. He reads the "2-for-1" retaliation pattern and Rubio's "shoot at our ships and you lose tankers" posture as a deliberate US strategy of disproportionate response—while flagging the real risk that Iran is trying to bait the US into depleting munitions it may need for two other potential fights: a cornered, economically flailing Germany squaring off with a declining Russia, and the looming US-China collision. From there he lays out his central framework: that the US and China are two "wounded animals," both the largest economies, both feeling a narrow window, both pressing—China racing to divorce from the dollar (he floats his own contested theory that they may back the yuan with gold), reshore chip-making, and potentially move on Taiwan by 2027, because the deeper prize underneath everything is AI, and AI runs on chips. He argues energy undergirds the entire board, which is why the Strait, the Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, OPEC fracturing, and the Venezuela play all matter, and offers his read on why the US actually entered Iran (securing GCC capital for the AI bet, under the banner of non-proliferation). He's candid about which parts are his interpretation, flags his gold-backed-yuan idea as highly contested, and lands on his recurring throughline: a multipolar world is coming, and the real question is what kind of "overlord" order the world ends up choosing—one you can vote out, or one you can't. The team connects a series of escalating global stories that the host argues are increasingly becoming one convergent conflict. First, Iran: the Revolutionary Guard reportedly fired hypersonic ballistic missiles at a US aircraft carrier and a guided-missile destroyer in the Strait of Hormuz—a dramatic escalation from base and drone attacks—with both ships evading and no Americans hurt, after which US forces struck and reportedly sank Iranian oil tankers. The host frames a country as most dangerous when it's weakest, and notes Bessent's argument that Iran is running out of the pre-purchased Chinese oil money keeping it afloat, meaning the coming months could get more dangerous before any off-ramp. Second, Europe: reports that Germany is moving toward direct conflict with Russia (closing Russian consulates, restricting entry after a drone incident), which could trigger NATO and pull in the US—complicated by the rise of Germany's AfD party (now reportedly the second-largest, around 23% to the leading party's ~30%), which has floated exiting the EU. Third, diplomacy: Witkoff and Kushner arriving to broker talks, with a reported 72-hour agreement between Putin and Zelensky not to strike each other's capitals (though front-line fighting continues and a broader ceasefire was rejected)—the host cautiously optimistic given their Abraham Accords track record, while noting their recent results have been thinner. Fourth, the US-Venezuela deal versus China, which claims its own competing, "internationally protected" interest there—prompting the host's blunt aside that "international law" is really just a function of who holds the most power. And finally, the bigger economic picture: a Nordic country reportedly selling ~$80B in US Treasuries, central banks buying gold in historic amounts (with gold reportedly overtaking US debt as the top reserve asset), and the resurfaced Ray Dalio warning about what happens when an empire has to start buying its own debt. The host's throughline: the US has a real opportunity—if it rebuilds a genuine moral center, restores fiscal discipline, and competes with China by being genuinely better for partner nations (Venezuela being the key test)—but the window is closing, and a multipolar world can deliver either the benefits of real competition or the dangers of everyone violently choosing sides. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Tom Bilyeu?

  Let's talk about the moment your side hustle becomes a real business. Now, I see way too many founders stay stuck running their business like it's a hobby. And then they wonder why nothing ever feels real. It doesn't feel real because it's not. I've helped thousands of entrepreneurs build real businesses through Impact Theory University. And the first step in the path to building a legit business is registering it. And Tailor Brands will help you do just that in a few clicks. An LLC, a limited liability company, is an official business structure. It's inexpensive to form and very simple to maintain. It's how you open a business bank account. It's how customers know they're dealing with a real company. And Tailor Brands doesn't stop at the filing.

• 0:45Tom Bilyeu?

  Their dashboard tracks what comes next based on what your business actually needs. So EIN number, registered agent, licenses and permits, bookkeeping, business banking. I tell every founder the same thing, just make it official. Click the link in the show notes to check out Tailor Brands and get started on your business today. This is a paid advertisement.

• 1:07Speaker 01

  The Iran war is starting to very much heat up. The IRGC announced it carried out the single largest attack in the Strait of Hormuz during of the war period, striking 10 vessels in retaliation for tonight's US airstrikes on five Iranian oil tankers. The IRGC says it struck eight oil tankers attempting to pass through the strait and two US destroyers in aid earlier tonight inflicting significant damage. The US struck three tankers on September 5th. Iran responded with six, the US struck five tonight, and now Iran responds with 10. Two for one is now the pattern.

• 1:37Tom Bilyeu?

  The war in Iran is threatening to spiral out of control again with the US sinking five Iranian oil tankers and Iran launching 20 ballistic missiles in retaliation. Now, here's how the party started. Over two days, the IRGC fired ballistic missiles at a US warship, twice. Both missed, but that's going to piss some people off. Tuesday, CENTCOM was like, alright, if you guys want to play, then the empire is going to strike back. Four IRGC crude carriers in the Gulf of Oman, one more off Carg Island, the terminal that moved 90% of Iran's oil before the war they're starting to strike at. Crews were told to abandon ship. You've got CENTCOM releasing videos of them. You've got the Riesgo going under.

• 2:22Tom Bilyeu?

  So the US is going to use disproportionate response. They are going to escalate. You've got eight Iranian tankers destroyed in four days, three on September 5th, five last night. Marco Rubio has basically summed up this entire exchange, saying every time Iran shoots at a US ship, Iran loses tankers. And we're just going to keep that party rolling. Now, Iran isn't going to take any of this sitting down. This is why I say this runs the risk of spiraling back to, in fact, we're at the height of the war at this point. So I think that that was more Iran did more last night in attempted damage than they have done since the beginning of the war, or at least as much.

• 3:05Tom Bilyeu?

  So obviously, they're big mad. So they're going to start slotting a ton of missiles into launchers and smashing that big red button as fast as they can. And so as they launch their 20 ballistic missiles, they're launched at a US base in Jordan that actually houses troops. Now thankfully, according to Jordan, it intercepted 18 of the 20 and then the other two just landed in empty desert. There were no casualties reported. But how much of what we know is actually going on is a big question. The IRGC is claiming that it destroyed hangars full of US fighter jets and hit two US destroyers and eight tankers. The Pentagon is obviously saying that that's totally bullshit. Is there some truth that they hit anything?

• 3:48Tom Bilyeu?

  Or is this literally the US is just posting wins and the IRGC is getting a whole bunch of goose eggs? We're going to need to see there for a while now being claims that the US isn't reporting all of the damage that's been done. I don't think anybody should be too surprised. The Pentagon is not exactly a bastion of truth. But as far as we can tell, as of right now, no American warships have been struck. But the claim that we're always asked to believe is that the IRGC is completely out of missiles, out of defenses. But the reality obviously is that they have some. And so now the question becomes, are they able to get us to further deplete our munitions? Now, Trump keeps saying that, hey, we're just fine.

• 4:30Tom Bilyeu?

  But the back and forth is, yes, you probably have enough to fight Iran, but you've got China over here doing their thing. You've got Europe and Russia escalating. And you're potentially going to need munitions for those two fights. And if Iran can keep baiting you into firing off more rockets, that you're not going to have enough should something pop off in one of those other two areas. Both of those areas are watching what we're doing very closely. Now, there are negotiations being done between the US and Russia to try to find an off-ramp in the war in Ukraine. So obviously, that would be very helpful. But don't think that even if Russia takes that off-ramp, that Russia is just like, yeah, cool, we're going to chill.

• 5:12Tom Bilyeu?

  They're going to be still extraordinarily sensitive to two things. One, reuniting the USSR, which Putin has been very clear about as part of the legacy that he wants to leave. And then, two, the fact that there's still drama brewing between the EU and Russia. So even if Russia right now backs off of Ukraine to settle that, to begin building their stockpiles, what is Germany, for instance, going to do? Is Germany going to continue moving on the offensive? Germany's economy is in dire straits. Germany should rightfully be feeling pretty uneasy about their position on the globe. They used to be known as the best engineers in the world. It really meant something to say that something was German made, German engineered.

• 5:57Tom Bilyeu?

  And that just isn't true anymore. And now it's if you want to find the best engineers in the world, you're going to go to China, man. And our man, Tim Cook, over at Apple, basically said that. He was like, I don't know where everybody gets that you go to China for cheap labor. He's like, I don't go to China for cheap labor. I go to China for some of the best engineering on planet Earth. Maybe back in the 80s and 90s, they were the place that you went to for cheap labor. But we've had an entire, what, two generations of Chinese workers raised, knowing all of the US's best secrets, becoming the place that the entire world is sending everything to to get manufactured. That's going to create some of the greatest manufacturing know-how on planet Earth.

• 6:40Tom Bilyeu?

  Because everybody was sending for decades their best engineers to get everything done more cheaply. But that part of this curve has now largely played out. And China is just where you go full stop to get things manufactured. Because the entire world, through a very stupid policy of globalism, sent everything. So the US has got to be thoughtful about the fact that we are still heading towards a collision with China, that Russia may lick its wounds. But you have a declining Russia going up against a declining Germany, which tells you, we talked about this before, that a country is at its most dangerous when it sees itself as having a declining advantage.

• 7:22Tom Bilyeu?

  And so if you're Germany and you see that your economy is declining and you have a chance to get on war footing as a way to re-energize your people, and Russia calling that out, saying these motherfuckers want to fight. So now, the US, if they're paying attention, they're shooting all of their missiles to try to stop what Iran is doing. Iran is in communication with China and Russia. And they're not saying they're doing it at the behest of these guys. But you can imagine, follow the incentive structure. China wants to see the US depleted. Russia wants to see the US depleted. And so now, as we retaliate, we put ourselves in a position where there's conflict more likely

• 8:03Tom Bilyeu?

  between China taking Taiwan and thus being willing to stand up to the US. Russia, at the best case scenario, backing off of Ukraine as a way to lick their wounds and get ready for a skirmish with a cornered Europe, whose economy is just absolutely flagging. I would imagine the psychology in Germany is not great. And so you've got just so much global instability. We're going to talk about this later today. On top of all of that, all the people making money right now are getting more and more paranoid because the sure bet of owning US debt is no longer the sure bet. So it's like, we have to be very careful as we talk through all of this to remain optimistic,

• 8:46Tom Bilyeu?

  to understand what the path forward is as an individual and as a nation. But at the same time, we've got to be honest about what the threats are. And that is what I just laid out. The threat landscape is rough.

• 8:58Speaker 01

  It seems like we keep coming back to China, no matter what story we go.

• 9:01Tom Bilyeu?

  They are gigantic and a wounded animal. So you're in a position where you have the two largest economies in the world, the US and China. They're both in a declining state. And they both feel that they have this narrow window of opportunity and they're both going to press it. And so you've got China just absolutely trying to divorce itself from the US, goldify everything, deal with your housing crisis and make sure that you are the future of technology. So get a chokehold on everything that you can. You've got the US realizing, okay, our days as a global empire are over, but we're going to maximize our hemisphere.

• 9:41Tom Bilyeu?

  Venezuela has more oil than everybody. So now, you've got OPEC starting to shatter. The US going, we've got to do something because we know everybody is, it's a slow motion train wreck away from the US dollar. So we're not going to have that privilege. We're going to try to salvage it with crypto and migrate the debt need over to that. But that's a question mark right now. We don't know that that's going to work. And so we're essentially trying to build a new alliance here in the US or in the Western Hemisphere to empower ourselves.

• 10:21Tom Bilyeu?

  And so you've got two wounded animals, like closing ranks, trying to build up their regional strength. They're trying to do it to be strong. But what they're going to find is they're fighting over the allegiance of the other players in the world. Whenever you see something play out, ask, has this happened before? And the answer is, yes, this is US v Russia. And so we roughly understand how these things go. And the US and China will start spying on each other at an increased rate. They will start trying to one-up each other in every way that they can. And the threat of kinetic violence will always sit in the background. And so a lot of this is going to be, just like with the economy, what is the thing that pops that bubble?

• 11:03Tom Bilyeu?

  So we've got tensions brewing, but it isn't spilling into hot conflict yet. But what would be that one thing? If China is really like, we have to move on Taiwan by 2027 for our survival. Because remember, the real fight is AI.

• 11:20Tom Bilyeu?

  Anybody paying attention knows, if you win AI, you win.

• 11:26Tom Bilyeu?

  As the mathematicians are finding out today, AI is so smart. Drew, AI is so smart. And I don't know if people just aren't using it, if they're so caught up in their like, I'm afraid of becoming irrelevant. But if I'm China and I'm realizing how smart AI is, and I realize that the US currently has an advantage over me, and I say, why does the US have an advantage over me? And the answer is chips. I do two things. I start building chips in my home country, which they're doing. And I go, Taiwan's the current home. And so it's already on my books to get them by 27. The US is fucking up. They're gonna be depleted. They're not gonna be able to do this. I'm gonna make a move on Taiwan.

• 12:11Tom Bilyeu?

  Who's the one kid that might fuck me up? This Palmer Lucky guy in his dumbass Hawaiian shirts. Let's fucking sanction him. And honestly, this is me, this is me, this is, I don't have any information on China. But boy, if he slipped and fell, huh, I'd be okay with that. And if I'm the one that has to lay the banana peel, so be it. It's, all of this stuff is so interconnected that it gets wild.

• 12:35Speaker 01

  I, I find that interesting because I feel like China is the

• 12:40Speaker 01

  farmer's market of the world. They have tables, they sell a bunch of like random things. You don't know what you're gonna get when you get there, but you could browse around. They sell a little bit of this, a little bit of this. They have their hand in every industry. So them neutering America

• 12:55Speaker 01

  is pretty much them neutering their number one customer. Because all of our manufacturing runs through China. We're paying them arm and leg in 18 different industries, like I said, so. The advantage of taking us out, is it an ego thing? Is it a, they'll be the number one government? Like, what is China's angle that's driving it? They want everybody to be communism? What, what do you think?

• 13:15Tom Bilyeu?

  I don't think they care if people are communists or not. They just want people to do what they tell them to do. In the same way that the US wants people to do what we tell them to do. I'm not saying there's a world in which people don't have an overlord. I'm just saying, what kind of overlord do you want? One where people can be voted out of office? Or one where people can shoot the people in the face and they don't get a vote? You're going to have an overlord. The, the globe is going to have some number of powers that are either at each other, and historically that leads to war. Because somebody is going to be top dog. Or they're going to have one overlord that, like post-World War II, oversees everything.

• 13:55Tom Bilyeu?

  And when our largest period of prosperity and peace came and we had a single overlord. So the question is, what are people gonna vote for? But to answer your direct question, China just wants to

• 14:09Tom Bilyeu?

  call it debt enslaved, infrastructure enslaved everybody. So that there's no way to get around them. In the same way that digital money would be super useful. In the same way that the US uses the global monetary system to enslave everybody. China wants to do it through any and all means possible. They want to become the world's reserve currency. I still think they're gonna make a play to back the yuan with gold. I, I want to be very clear, that is not a universally held position that is highly contested. I think a lot of people think I'm crazy. But I keep watching the moves they're making. They're trying to divorce themselves from the US dollar. They're building enough gold reserves that they could conceivably back it with gold. We'll see. But anyway, they're, they're freeing themselves of all US control.

• 14:55Tom Bilyeu?

  And then what they want is the US to be subservient and wealthy enough to buy stuff. But ultimately, everything comes down to comparative advantage. So they don't necessarily need anything more than to be richer than America. They don't need America to be impoverished. That isn't their goal. But they want, is a better word. They want the US and everyone to be subservient.

• 15:21Speaker 01

  We'll keep monitoring. You said something earlier about how energy infrastructure around the world is kind of going crazy. The Houthis are making sure it gets even crazier. Operating out of Yemen, they just did an attack in the Jazran Armaco fields in Saudi Arabia. So they are also mobilizing throughout Yemen to do additional strikes. So it seems like another proxy network is moving and attacking a GCC country from a different side.

• 15:46Tom Bilyeu?

  What's going, so this is Iran. So people need to understand the Houthis are a militant wing of Iran. So Iran is trying to be the hegemon in the Gulf region. China's trying to be a global hegemon. US is trying to be a global hegemon. They'll both settle for regional hegemony. But you've now potentially got the China having control. If, if Iran wins, China having influence over its near-sphere of influence, plus influence over the Middle East. Then you've got the US having its sphere of influence. And oil, because it remains the thing that undergirds everything. Energy undergirds everything, okay? For now.

• 16:31Tom Bilyeu?

  And, well, it will always, but the question is, how much can we get from the sun? Setting that aside, right now, oil is still by far the way that the world gets its energy. So whoever has energy to export is going to be the focus of attention. Iran, for a very long time, for two reasons, have, has wanted to control the region. One, it's economically a just massive superpower. And you can make your country extraordinarily wealthy. The second is they're a theocratic regime. So they believe God has told them to do the things that they are doing. That throws a monkey wrench in things that is dizzying. But nonetheless, so as you see them going after Saudi Arabia,

• 17:12Tom Bilyeu?

  going after several of the countries, including the UAE in the region, what you see is somebody trying to take control of that region. This is a big part of why Israel remains a problem. I think the religious element is a thousand times bigger than it being the unsinkable aircraft carrier for the US. We can debate that till the cows come home. That's just my take on the situation. But nonetheless, they're trying to get a control of what's going on there. So you're gonna continue seeing these attacks until Iran is actually broken. Now, it's gonna be debated until the end of time whether the US should have gotten involved in Iran. But it's very easy to understand why the US wanted to get involved in Iran.

• 17:55Tom Bilyeu?

  So remember, when this all started, the US was trying to make sure that we were going to be able to grow our way out from under the debt. To do that, we needed to find an extraordinary amount of capital to apply towards AI, which is the only bet that anybody has any faith on right now. And the largest capital aggregators were effectively people in the GCC nations turning oil money into technological investment dollars. Made all the sense in the world. So the US was like, hey, guys, we got you. Abraham Accords, we're gonna try to unite all of this thing under the economy, which is the right play, by the way. And that, that is a hill that I will certainly fight on, whether I'll die on it or not. I'm always open to being wrong.

• 18:37Tom Bilyeu?

  But that, to me, is, understanding what's going on there is just an absolutely critical part of this. So you go in, you've got Iran wants to control the oil so that they can run their theocratic regime, take over, be economically strong, and get everybody under their caliphate, essentially. Then you've got, obviously, the US needing that to make the AI play happen. All under the guise of, we can't let them become a nuclear nation. Which, by the way, is a good move. It is very smart. It's probably not the real motivating factor, which is why they were so discombobulated with getting people to understand why they made the attack on Iran. But now that we've made the attack, you're actually seeing what's going on.

• 19:21Tom Bilyeu?

  Which is Iran shooting at not just US bases, but just blowing up the energy infrastructure of the other nations there to weaken them so that they can run the board. If you don't map it that way, and you see them just as like, we're angry because the US attacked us, and so we're gonna lash out at anybody that we think helped them, it's gonna be far more confusing than if you go, ah, wait a second. This is Iran still saying, we're willing to be more militaristic than the rest of you. And so we're going to attack everybody to get you guys all to back off the US, get the US out, and now we can run the table. Because we're the biggest economy, certainly, if we can get alignment with Russia and China, we're gonna be the biggest, most thriving economy here. And we're the most militaristic, we're the strongest.

• 20:05Tom Bilyeu?

  I think they're the biggest by numbers. And so we're gonna have this region. And then everything begins to slot into place about all the instability. Everybody making a grab for the energy which undergirds everything for all the reasons I just laid out.

• 20:23Speaker 01

  Yeah, they are the biggest by population. So you said you want, and you think this is a religious push for Iran to have everybody in the GCC, one nation under Islam type thing?

• 20:34Tom Bilyeu?

  Everyone in the world.

• 20:36Speaker 01

  Everyone in the world.

• 20:36Tom Bilyeu?

  The world.

• 20:37Speaker 01

  Got it.

• 20:38Tom Bilyeu?

  The world.

• 20:39Speaker 01

  Got it.

• 20:39Tom Bilyeu?

  So I don't know if people are still gonna waste energy trying to deny that. But yes, the idea is a global caliphate. We're hitting pause for a moment, but there's plenty more ahead, so don't go anywhere. There's a reason Quince sells cashmere for $60, and it isn't the cashmere. It's real 100% Mongolian cashmere. It's the same stuff luxury labels charge a fortune for. Quince just works directly with ethical factories and cuts out the middleman. So there's no need for a markup and no logo tax. The $60 goes to the actual sweater, not the fancy name on the tag. That's why everything they make runs 50 to 80% less. And it's not just the cashmere.

• 21:23Tom Bilyeu?

  I ordered a few things myself, their fleece joggers, a couple of their tees, which I wear obsessively. First thing I noticed was the quality, soft, well-made, built to hold up. They make down jackets and wool outerwear now, too. So upgrade your stuff to things you'll actually wear. Find your next fall favorites at Quince. Download the Quince app for app exclusive offers or go to quince.com. Get free shipping on your order and 365 day returns now available in Canada and the UK, too. And when Quince asks where you heard about them, let them know it was Impact Theory. It's the best way to support the show. Let's talk about what it means to actually be visible in today's day and age.

• 22:05Tom Bilyeu?

  When you build something public, whether it's a business or an audience, anything on social media, you become a target. This is something that legitimately keeps me up at night because our data isn't just on the obvious broker sites. It's on old news portals, public forums, obscure directories, places you would never think to look. That's where Incogni's exposure scanner comes in. It hunts down your personal information across the wider web, not just the 420 plus broker sites. Incogni already removes your data from automatically. They can't harm you if they can't find you. Go to incogni.com/impact and use code IMPACT for 60% off an annual plan. Try it risk-free for 30 days.

• 22:50Tom Bilyeu?

  That's incogni, I-N-C-O-G-N-I.com/impact and use code IMPACT.

• 23:00Tom Bilyeu?

  Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action.

• 23:03Speaker 01

  Iranians have struck back at the US trying to break up the Strait of Hormuz blockade. There's some rumors that these missiles that they use were some serious business. Tom, break it down to us. What's going on over there?

• 23:14Tom Bilyeu?

  War is going to get more dangerous, more bloody very quickly. People are not being honest about what has just happened. So the Revolutionary Guard fired ballistic missiles at a US aircraft carrier and a guided missile destroyer. Kids, this wasn't a base. We're not talking about drones. We're talking about hypersonic ballistic missiles being fired at a carrier group. This is, I can't remember if this is like the first time this has ever happened. But if it isn't the first time, boy, oh, boy. Is it rare that anybody shoots at US battleships, man? People have historically avoided that one because you're going to get back into this extremely escalatory loop of tit for tat.

• 23:59Tom Bilyeu?

  Now thankfully, literally thankfully for us, thankfully for Iran, thankfully for everybody. Both ships evaded the missiles. No Americans were hurt because you can imagine how we would have reacted had somebody been hurt. So let's all be thankful. But the fact that Iran is like, nope. Remember, a country is at its most dangerous when it's at its weakest. Because they're like, well, we don't have anything left to lose. Expect this to get crazier and crazier. It's the same fear that I have about Russia, Ukraine. If you're Ukraine, you're like, we've got to strike Russia harder. We've got to start blowing these things up. And so they've been sanctioning their oil by striking their oil facilities.

• 24:41Tom Bilyeu?

  But obviously, when you have nuclear nations that start getting hit hard, they start going, kids, you need to remember that we're a nuclear nation. And if I have to remind you, I certainly will. So the question becomes, how do they remind them? In what way? We'll get into the negotiations there because you've got Whitkoff and Kushner there trying to do something. And there's some mildly encouraging signs there. But back in Iran, within hours, US forces hit three Iranian oil tankers because they weren't having it. Whether they hit us or not, they still had to strike back. So you've got the Downey off of Carg Island. You've got the Stark one near Jask. CENTCOM's phrase for both were they were permanently disabled. I'm pretty sure one of them sank to the bottom of the ocean.

• 25:24Tom Bilyeu?

  So keep in mind, this is not, hey, we're hitting your engine room now to let you know that we're serious. We're sending you to the bottom of the ocean. And so escalatory exchanges are the very thing that people need to be concerned about. And so the ballistic missiles need to be read as a pretty dramatic escalation there. So again, I've made this clear from where I'm sitting. The thing that we have to worry about is when all of these become one conflict. And as they escalate, they become more of that. So you've got Lavrov, which is a, forget his title in the Russian hierarchy, but a high up guy in the Russian military or Russian political Politburo, whatever, saying, hey, Germany is escalating towards war with Russia.

• 26:08Tom Bilyeu?

  Boys and girls, if you get a just a no longer proxy battle between Russia and Europe, and you just get an actual open battle between Russia and Europe. Obviously, that is a deep problem. That would trigger NATO agreements. So now you've got theoretically, the US pulled into that. You've already got Russia giving aid to Iran, stating plainly that they want to help Iran. And so now you just have this increasing danger of this becoming a global conflict. So the ballistic missiles in one case is an isolated thing that happened in the Strait of Hormuz. And at the same time is a part of that escalatory framework that everybody should be wanting to see an off-ramp to.

• 26:52Tom Bilyeu?

  And so the question becomes, what's going to be the off-ramp? And as we continue the sanctions on Iran, which according to Besant, Besant is saying, listen, Iran has been able to limp along as long as they have because there was millions of barrels of oil that China had already purchased that are already on their way and they're spending that money. But now because of the blockade, there's no more oil for them to buy. So even if they were able to somehow avoid sanctions and just completely be dismissive of the sanctions that we're trying to put on people in secondary places. So directly targeting banks that are facilitating the movement of cash and things like that.

• 27:36Tom Bilyeu?

  Even if they were able to use some sort of black market, you know, back channel dealings to move the money between China and Iran, they're not going to keep doing that when none of the oil is leaving. And so they're spending the last of the money that was brokered before we put all of this in place. And so now, if you think Iran is weak now, wait till you see where they're at in a month or two months. And so that becomes a question about, okay, well, if they're already lashing out with hypersonic ballistic missiles, what do they do if they get into an even more dire situation? What are they able to do and what are they willing to do? And so, yeah, that is a big looming question. But things are not yet better. Now, it could be a darkest before the dawn kind of thing.

• 28:21Tom Bilyeu?

  And maybe Iran is really about to be forced to tap out because they just run out of money. But yeah, it's, it's going to likely get more dangerous before it settles down.

• 28:32Speaker 01

  Yeah. And then we have reports here that are saying that Germany is en route on its path to war with Russia. And it dates back to a drone attack that happened at Lepes Airport last month. Germany will, it closed the Russian consulate general in Bonn and the Russian house in Berlin and restricted Russian entry. So it seems like they're moving toward that. There's renewed reports that they actually are going toward war. So it's just going to keep escalating. And once Germany joins, that's the rest of the EU is right behind them.

• 29:01Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah. So what's happening in Germany is going to be very interesting. If you guys haven't seen, the AFD party continues to gain momentum. They are in no way, shape or form, a majority, nowhere near, I don't think anybody is in Germany right now. They are the second biggest party. So the AFD, for those of you that don't know, are the far, far right. I guess let's put that in air quotes. But they are certainly the right party in Germany. And so they continue to gain momentum.

• 29:25Speaker 01

  Like the right or the R I G H T, the right?

• 29:27Tom Bilyeu?

  No, the right is in left versus right, not correct. They are the, the right-leaning party. The AFD has said if they gain power, that they would exit the EU, which is wild. And so that'll be the tempering force. So you have a very pro-EU side of Germany that's currently in power. Obviously pro-immigration, pro some of the wilder policies from where I'm sitting, EU policies. Now losing, not as rapidly as people will tell you at the headline level, but they are losing ground to the AFD and coming closer and closer to parity. It's something like 23% for the AFD versus like 30 or 32%.

• 30:12Tom Bilyeu?

  It's somewhere in that neighborhood. Those aren't the literal numbers. They are directionally correct between the two parties. It's my understanding that the AFD is growing faster. So we'll see if that asymptotes at any point and hits a ceiling. But that is going to be a tempering force. Now, I personally don't know AFD's stance on Russia and what they would do in terms of support for Ukraine in that scenario. So they may push those policies just as hard and they may not be a mitigating force as it comes to Russia and the EU coming to a direct head. That part I don't know, but it'll be interesting to see. How the rise of the AFD party in Germany disrupts the momentum of I'll say broader EU, not just Germany, but the broader EU conflict between Russia and the EU.

• 30:56Tom Bilyeu?

  If you remember just last week, Russia was talking about how Britain gonna get it. And so Russia at this point is threatening a lot of people, but thankfully so far, has not made good on any of those threats. And so seeing Whitkoff and Kushner arrive to try to make some diplomacy happen is certainly very encouraging. It's my understanding that both Putin and Zelensky came to the table. Both sides agreed to not strike for 72 hours to not strike. I think it was specifically Moscow or Kiev. They're still fighting on the front lines, so neither side agreed to that, though I think

• 31:37Tom Bilyeu?

  Ukraine was pushing for a broader three day agreement that Russia rejected. So take that for what it's worth, but they did agree both to not strike the capitals so that the US negotiators could come and engage with each other and the both sides to try to negotiate something moving forward. Now, as of now, I have not seen anything reporting that anything substantial has come of it. But in fairness to Whitkoff and Kushner, they at least historically with the Abraham Accords have done things that other people thought were impossible. I would say their recent track record is far less interesting, far less results have been gotten.

• 32:21Tom Bilyeu?

  So I don't know that they're going to be able to actually provide an off ramp and get us out of this, but I'm certainly any sign of diplomacy to me is a good sign. So we'll see if something positive comes out of it.

• 32:32Speaker 01

  To your point, and Bustamante said this on the show as well, we're already in World War III if we count proxies and things like that. So if we don't get a deal here, Germany gets involved and the EU gets involved. We still are struggling with the Strait of Hormuz. Russia is helping back Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. So it seems like before long, when a blink, it'll be EU and America versus Russia and Iran with China kind of peeking over the gates, dispersing money where they see fit.

• 32:57Tom Bilyeu?

  Yes. China is running such a fascinating strategy of like, what do you mean? Hands off, they obviously are very dismissive of the of the US specifically and of the West in general when they need to be, but they really are trying to throw their monetary might around, which is very smart and run a very different strategy than the US. In many ways, they're counter programming against the US and trying to paint the picture of, listen, yes, we're going to be Empire Two, but we're going to do it in a very different way. We want to make things economically viable for people. And I will just say, this is how all empires begin. This is literally a page out of the US book Post World War II, helping people rebuild,

• 33:40Tom Bilyeu?

  trying to make sure that they have infrastructure, trying to make sure that they see you as the moral people that are there to help the world. And hey, guys, we're just trying to help. And then you get into a position where you have interests all over the world. People start pushing back against the way that you're running the world because nobody is ever satisfied. And then you start having to tighten the screws a little bit. And so, yeah, this is welcome the new boss, same as the old boss. So on that side of things, I think people should be far more careful. But I am deeply encouraging to the US, my beloved US, you must redevelop a moral center. You must broadcast that moral center and live up to it and recognize that it's going

• 34:21Tom Bilyeu?

  to be 10 years, 20 years before the world really starts taking you seriously, that you now have a longstanding track record of getting back to being a moral country that is focused on fiscal discipline, that you understand that exporting your inflation to the rest of the world has caused all of them to just say, yeah, we're not playing this game anymore. You've got Europeans now selling their debt. I think it was Norway or something, Norway, Sweden, one of the two. It was a Nordic country that just sold something like 80 billion in US treasuries. So there's a talk that Ray Dalio gave, but it was years ago, but he gave a talk about

• 35:02Tom Bilyeu?

  what happens when a country starts buying its own debt and what exactly they're doing and precisely how that ends up being the way that the empire shoots itself in the face. And it's re-going viral now because, hey, we're starting to escalate that as we are having to buy back so much of our own debt because you've got Japan in crisis, which normally buys a gaggle of our debt. You've got China years ago just said, yeah, we're not playing that in the game, that game anymore, selling, selling, selling. The US made the decision to sell our euros. I can't remember if it sold euros or European debt, but either way, we were exiting their system, which now of course incentivizes them to exit our system, which is exactly what they're doing now.

• 35:46Tom Bilyeu?

  Central banks the world over have been buying gold in just absolutely historic amounts for years at this point. The gold has replaced US debt as central reserve currency. So it's like, yeah, people are clearly moving away from the US. So we are going to have to find that moral center, make ourselves strong from a manufacturing standpoint, show the world that we're still the place that you want to sell into because we're such a strong economy, everybody's going to want a piece of us. We've got to leverage that though, in a much smarter way. We've got to build diplomatic relationships with people that are actually good for them. And so Venezuela is going to be a huge test.

• 36:30Tom Bilyeu?

  And if Venezuela becomes this purely extractive story where US came in, snatched your president, takes your oil, does deals that are great for America and American capitalists, but are terrible for Venezuela, then the world's just going to be like, fuck these kids. If on the other hand Venezuela experiences an economic resurgence, restabilizes, becomes a more El Salvadorian story or an Argentinian story, then that'll be like, hey, that's something that we can build on. And if the next administration follows that up and is like, listen, yes, this is a good deal for America, but it's a tremendous deal for Venezuela, then we'll have something going for us if it becomes formal policy, if we can wrap that up in a way that says, hey, listen, we're going to compete against China by being better for you than China.

• 37:14Tom Bilyeu?

  And now you get the positive effects of a world order that has two major powers. Right now, we run the risk of having all the negative effects of having people that are choosing sides that are being more violent because they can doing grabs like the power grab that we saw Russia make. If you start seeing more of that the world over, now we're going to be on the dark side of two powers instead of one. So no answers there, only questions, but we have an opportunity to do it well. Whether we take that opportunity or not is a different question.

• 37:47Speaker 01

  Yeah, so one of the representatives from China was asked about the Venezuela-US deal because China Foreign Ministry says that they have a deal in place with China, Venezuela, and it is protected by international law because they do have oil interests in that country. So it's interesting now that the US just signed their new deal with Venezuela, if that's going to make China ruffle its feathers and that's China intervening on another continent with us.

• 38:12Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, it will be very interesting to see how that plays out and be very interesting to see how China responds. But just a reminder to everybody, international law doesn't exist. So international law is a way of saying, hey, I'm not as strong as you. I want to make sure that you're held accountable to something. And the US sits outside of international law very specifically so they can do whatever the hell they want. So yeah, just keep that in mind. It's like a talking point. It's not a real thing. Like who's going to enforce international law? It's going to be people with the biggest guns. And the people with the biggest guns will always place themselves outside of international law by reality, even if not by words. So even if China ends up agreeing, they're going to sit outside of international law

• 38:57Tom Bilyeu?

  whenever it is convenient for them, such is the way that power works. Taking a short break, but there's more Impact Theory after. Stay tuned. Let's talk about how much you're paying to stay safe online. Count it up. A VPN, a password manager, something to block ads and trackers, the services scrub your data off of broker lists, a tool to flag scam emails. That's five, five subscriptions, apps, logins, and most people still have gaps. That's the problem Surfshark solves. It's not a VPN. It's an all in one security suite, one tool that protects your connection, your personal info and your devices all at the same time.

• 39:40Tom Bilyeu?

  Go to surfshark.com/tomb or use code TOMB for four extra months of Surfshark, backed by a 30 day money back guarantee. That's S U R F S H A R K dot com slash TOMB. Surfshark.com/tomb. Use code TOMB for four extra months of Surfshark.

• 40:08Tom Bilyeu?

  Thanks for staying tuned. Now, let's get back to it. The battle between humans and machines has already begun, and it is way weirder and far more petty than people realize. It's pitting humans against AI, AI against humans, OpenAI against Anthropic. This is really becoming like high school, but with Terminator implications. This shit is getting so crazy. There's a potential breakthrough that's happened in mathematics, and humans and AI basically right now are arguing over who should get credit. We've now got people claiming that AI has copied their homework, essentially. So for a year, NYU mathematician Tristan Buckmaster and Levant Alpoji, forgive me if that's mispronounced, he's a researcher at Anthropic.

• 40:51Tom Bilyeu?

  They've been working on this math problem. It's called Navier-Stokes, and one of the seven Millennial Prize mathematics problems that's been floating out there that nobody's been able to solve. These guys have been just banging away at this thing. There's a million dollars on the line from the Clay Institute, and the approach that these guys were taking was pretty obscure. Almost nobody else on Earth was on it supposedly, and every draft of the project went into private codec sessions. And those codec sessions live on, you guessed it, OpenAI servers. Now, this is an accusation that's been leveled against OpenAI before. I think we've had similar accusations leveled against Anthropic, which is basically like, hold on a second.

• 41:36Tom Bilyeu?

  I'm doing some really cool stuff. I'm loading this into your system, and I'm glad, because your system is helping me along. The AI has been incredibly valuable here. However, I need to know that me working with your AI does not mean me giving all of my IP over to your AI, who's just going to train on everything that I'm doing, and then hand that information to everybody else that wants to use it. That is going to become the big debate. At what point do we get to basically say, okay, I'm putting a wall around this. This is what I'm doing. And yes, AI has been trained on everyone, everywhere, all across time, and I've gotten to take advantage of that by working with your AI. But now, I don't want your AI to be able to learn from the things that we're doing in real time.

• 42:21Tom Bilyeu?

  This is actually a fascinating debate. I think that this is going to rage for a while, because, and speaking from personal experience, there are insights that the AI will help you generate, but there's no doubt that it only got there because you pushed it. You gave it ideas to pursue. It helped you formulate the patterns and detect all of that, pull it into your research, and come up with something that is truly unique to the combination of you and the AI. And now, the question is, who owns that? This is going to be the debate between being able to host your own AI on your own servers, and then being available to Anthropic, or OpenAI, or whoever. And so, we talked about this back when Alex Karp,

• 43:04Tom Bilyeu?

  the CEO of Drew? Oh, Palantir. Palantir, thank you. The CEO of Palantir, he was going viral, because he was talking about, you've got to put something in the middle. If you don't put something in the middle, so that you can own this information, then engaging with AI is just leaking your IP to the rest of the world. And so, yeah, that's going to be a debate that we're certainly not going to get to the bottom of today. But it poses a very interesting question that gets to the heart of the anger and frustration that people feel about AI learning from all humans, and then just making that knowledge available to the profit of companies, that it's like, wait, did they have the right to learn from all of that? And so, we all get right to that exposed nerve

• 43:49Tom Bilyeu?

  when it's our thing that is suddenly leaking out. So Alex Karp Solutions put something in the middle. Other people are saying, hold on, no way. You've got to like, house this thing yourself. It's got to be open source. You've got to allow me to put it behind my own servers, build my own weights, so that not only am I bringing something unique to this scenario, but it's behind and protected in a way where I can leverage what the AI knows, but it's my weights. So it's an AI that thinks differently is probably the right way to parse that. So I've taught the AI to think differently, and given it my injection of information. And therefore, the outcomes that I get are truly proprietary to me, and that's the secret sauce. With all of that looming in the background,

• 44:34Tom Bilyeu?

  on August 15th, these guys that have been banging away on this math problem, but doing it in a way that's exposed to OpenAI servers, they crack some big thing. I'm going to give you words, I don't know what these words mean. Supposedly, it is a blow up for the Euler equations. So basically, they're trying to figure out fluid dynamics. I know just enough about this to be dangerous. So they're trying to figure out fluid dynamics. Fluid dynamics has huge implications in terms of real life. So for anybody that wonders why anybody would care about an obscure mathematics problem, this is actually really important. When you think about unlocking the entire modern era was us discovering computation of the universe. Okay, that's what mathematics is.

• 45:19Tom Bilyeu?

  We're not inventing mathematics. We are discovering mathematics that tell you how the universe computes itself, how it takes inputs and turns them into outputs. Something that's utterly fascinating, but for now, just understand there are huge implications for how we interface with the universe itself when we discover how mathematics actually work. So if we can solve these fluid dynamics problems, then it would have implications for us being able to understand weather, blood flow in the human body, just like really big things, climate change, and what that could mean, how that's going to play out in actual temperature movements. Like, Southern California right now is experiencing all this change in humidity. If we can solve for some of these fluid dynamics, we'd have better insight into that.

• 46:02Tom Bilyeu?

  August 27th, they verified in Lean. I don't know what that means, but there you have it. So they're having these series of breakthroughs. September 3rd, rumors start leaking that, you know, they've gotten far at this point, but that AI may have done the same thing, and that it's Buckmaster realizes, hold on a second. These guys are focusing on the same thing that we're focusing on. And he reads something in one of these rumors that they were using the same method that he's using. And so, he said it was a bright red line, or a bright red flag for him. And he emails OpenAI himself to try to head off whatever is going on. So obviously, he doesn't want to miss out on getting the credit if he really was the one that solved this, and he certainly wants to know what's going on

• 46:47Tom Bilyeu?

  if they had access to his information. And so, he starts asking these really pointed questions about what did you have access to? Did you train on me? And they answer some questions like, very nakedly, we didn't do that. And then other questions, they seem to be very delayed in responding. And eventually, they say, nah, we can't quite rule out that the AI didn't see their information and take a very abstracted, unidentifiable read on what they were doing. And it's possible, though unlikely, according to OpenAI, that we did get something off of this. So OpenAI, for that reason, is writing back and basically saying that, hey, we don't want to compete here.

• 47:29Tom Bilyeu?

  Three days later, on Sunday, Sebastian Bubeck is on the phone telling Buckmaster that they have an internal model that just produced a 100-page proof that they believe that used the same unusual method. And so, OpenAI wants to basically negotiate is my word, but I think that that's a pretty reasonable read on this. And they're offering options about how they can handle this. So they put forward two options, and Buckmaster, who is obviously looking at these offers, says both of those offers involve dropping Alpoji, who happens to work at Anthropic. So now Buckmaster is going, hold on. You guys are trying to, in all of your negotiated settlements,

• 48:13Tom Bilyeu?

  you are trying to get rid of my co-author. And you're doing that purely because you guys just cannot tolerate that your competitor, or someone who works for your competitor, was involved in this. And so, if you accept the conspiracy read on all of this, it goes something like, OpenAI reads the drafts, ran the method of what Buckmaster and Alpoji were doing, and runs that method through basically 10,000 agents for 88 hours, racking up like 10 million plus dollars in cost, trying to solve this problem, and then shipped it as like a Sputnik moment, because essentially, the IPO needs one. And so, they've got to show that our new Astra model

• 48:56Tom Bilyeu?

  is so smart and so revolutionary that we're going to be solving novel math equations that are going to have big implications for the real world, which of course will make people go, see, I told you the AI hype was real, which to be honest, is exactly my read on the situation even after all of this, but we'll get to that. So that's great for the IPO. Now, anybody paying attention to real life knows that we're talking about billions of dollars, tens of billions, 100 billions of dollars of value that can be created if people simply believe that OpenAI and Astra have shown that they can leapfrog Anthropic, be in pole position.

• 49:40Tom Bilyeu?

  And if they can build enough hype, and then get to the IPO at sort of peak hype around this model, that then they've really got just a ton of money coming their way. So this isn't something where they don't have incentive. And so, when you look for motive for why somebody might want to not see something, right? So it could just be them positioning themselves, I don't want to know about that part. I want to take a nice, clean reading of this. Or they just may be completely cynical and be trying to rob this guy of his work. The details of this situation certainly are not settled yet. So I wouldn't grab on to any of these as if this is the actual fact. But you have a viral post call

• 50:23Tom Bilyeu?

  that's calling the whole thing like a major conceptual scam. It's this mathematician, and he's come out and said, this is all bullshit. And Sam Altman trying to take credit for his model using basically a brute force technique, which is, I think his quote was, "The compute bulldozer over abstract human intuition", which again, is just this pitting of AI versus humans, and which is better, this is all caught up in this. He wants people to understand that he thinks that... OpenAI is being grotesque. I think the word he used was vulgar. And to claim that throwing that sort of just brute force hack compute at it,

• 51:04Tom Bilyeu?

  and then saying that you ended up solving this problem, which he says they did not, is just all bullshit. Now, OpenAI says that no researcher and no agent access user data, and that the effort started on September 1st before the email outreach from Buckmaster. But its own blog post adds one line, and this is what I was saying earlier. It can't rule out that de-identified data from their codex usage helped improve the model. And nobody had to break in, nobody needed to try to steal their work. It's just a question of whether, if you have the right to train on the codex sessions, if the person didn't opt out.

• 51:45Tom Bilyeu?

  So, Bubeck's side is, he denies asking to cut Alpoji from his own paper. He says the conversation was about Buckmaster leading a rewrite of OpenAI's proof, and an Anthropic employee couldn't be inside of that for obvious reasons. Now, part of what OpenAI has said themselves was, look, we're not trying to cut him out. This was, he was resistant to being involved with this because we're competitors. Now, what's actually true, we will have to find out in the fullness of time. OpenAI is trying to back off of this. OpenAI is trying to let people know, look, man, like, we're not trying to take credit for anything. And upon further, like, further investigation of this, what we're realizing is we actually did take different approaches to this.

• 52:28Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, if you start looking at the math, because this, the post about this being vulgar on OpenAI's part from the mathematician, that viral post is sort of half-right and half-something else, in my estimation. The half that's right, OpenAI's proof adds external forcing term, so an outside push on the fluid. So, instead of just trying to map out the way that fluid dynamics works, it's basically you put a force on it, that causes it to terminate, and for the equation basically to be solvable. And the clay problem as written allows that. So, the clay problem, as most of the field understands it, doesn't. This is the debate.

• 53:12Tom Bilyeu?

  And the proof stands on a decade of human work by other people, including Buckmaster and Alpoji. And credit right now is a pretty legitimate fight in terms of, is the AI trading on their work or not? Now, the other half of the post, that I think is getting into something else, which is a big human pushback against AI, says that the AI didn't understand fluid mechanics at all, and it simply navigated a search space. So, it's going in and sort of using a brute force tactic. So, the same argument that people made about chess engines, right? It's not that it's a good player, or the same with Go. It's not that these things are good.

• 53:54Tom Bilyeu?

  It just throws so much brute compute at the problem that it isn't doing the same things that humans do, and therefore, we ought not value it. Now, I take a totally different read on this. I don't care how we get to the answer, we just need to get to the answer. And so, if you look at something like protein folding, I just need to know what the protein folds are, so that we can start building drugs off of them. We can start understanding how the mechanics of all this work, what the lock and key mechanism is of these proteins. And the same with whether it's fluid dynamics or any other thing in mathematics, is if what we do is come to understand how it works in sort of a Large Hadron Collider way, right? So, if you guys know the Large Hadron Collider,

• 54:38Tom Bilyeu?

  basically, we're saying, we can't figure out how particles at high energy react when they collide, so we're just gonna collide them billions of times, and look at all of the dispersion patterns. And then from that, we'll be able to see what's actually going on. So, we did not intuit our way to an answer. We just built this gigantic machine that non-stop violence collides these particles into each other. So, I for one am perfectly happy to see brute force used here. I just want to get to the answer. But the problem is that right now, there is so much anxiety and resentment around AI that there's going to be this massive battle between, did the human do it? Or did the AI do it?

• 55:19Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, what I hope we get to is ultimately, that doesn't really matter as long as we're getting to the answer. And from my own experience, it, these problems are going to be solved in combination. So, you're gonna have a human that has an intuition that tells the AI to go down a novel path, but ultimately, it is the AI that goes down the novel path. Now, I have a feeling in the fullness of time, we'll look at this and we'll figure out what actually happened. The sort of early or mid-game mumbles, if you will, from OpenAI is actually, if you start looking at the math that Buckmaster and co. were doing versus what our AI did, they're actually very different approaches. And so, when people have time to really compare the two approaches,

• 56:02Tom Bilyeu?

  we'll find out if this really was just AI copying one thing, if it was AI that got an idea to pursue, that it ended up rejecting and then moving on to something else, or if this really was just the AI taking all of sort of previous human knowledge and then throwing an absolute tsunami of compute at the problem, thinking through all the possible permutations in the way the Large Hadron Collider is just looking for just so much data that it can begin to find patterns that humans would otherwise not be able to find. Because the dataset is just so large, which is the thing that AI is uniquely good at. But until you understand, you have to parse this stuff through the lens of, I as a human do not want to feel like I have lost to AI.

• 56:44Tom Bilyeu?

  And that, I think, is what a lot of people are feeling right now in this moment, that I just can't let it be AI that did the thing here, because that makes me as a human feel like I've already been surpassed. And that is the moment that we're gonna live in. All the stuff that you see coming out of the government in terms of how we have to stop development, that is partly a real fear and largely panic about becoming irrelevant as a human. So, we'll see where this ultimately settles out. But this is really going viral, because I think it touches on that raw nerve. Because what you don't hear people saying is, oh my god, this is a, it certainly isn't a final solving of fluid dynamics by any stretch of the imagination. I don't think anybody's saying that. But it is a step forward.

• 57:27Tom Bilyeu?

  We have found a way to add a force to get these things to resolve as an equation, which previously we had not done. So, even if it's a baby step forward, it's a step forward. And the fact that people aren't excited about it tells you a lot about Terminator fears.

• 57:43Speaker 01

  What's your gut telling you? Do you think that this is more, OpenAI did it, and this just happens to be a massive coincidence?

• 57:49Tom Bilyeu?

  I went on a roller coaster ride. In the beginning, I was like, this is a thousand percent the AI going, thank you for adding things to the codex. I got an idea, I'm gonna go pursue it. I pursue it faster and better than you, but I really did start with your intuition. Because AI is trained on humans. And so, whatever it is that AI thinks and believes is predicated on all the humans that have come before it. But the bad news for humans is, that's what humans do. So, humans aren't operating in a vacuum. It's not like somebody is born today, reinvents mathematics. They look at everything that came before it. So, I was like, yeah, this is the AI accessing everything that's in its codexes, learning from that.

• 58:31Tom Bilyeu?

  And Drew, let me really make some enemies right now. It's what you want. You want the AI to learn from everything that's happening. Let me take it out of the field of mathematics and put it into the field of medicine. My cousin died because, according to his father, my cousin died from cancer, a terminal cancer. And my, technically, this was my second cousin. So, my cousin, his father, was just a crusader after he passed away to get HIPAA arranged in a way where all of the doctors could coordinate, that it was very easy for all of them to see all of his medical records with permission.

• 59:15Tom Bilyeu?

  But even with permission, it's so impossible, because everybody's trying to build all these firewalls. It's just hard to get everybody the different data from all the different tests and all that. So, we felt like everybody was operating on like a siloed piece of information, and they were sort of all chasing different paths, and they weren't coordinating. If you're in the field of medicine, and there's a breakthrough, do we want people to be able to isolate that? And if we do want people to be able to isolate that, the question is for how long? And so, I think that there's gonna be a worthy debate around, don't, there is some level, not saying at all levels, because some of the stuff I'm doing on Kaizen, I'll be honest, for the first time in my life, I have the impulse not to tell people some of the paths that I'm pursuing,

• 59:57Tom Bilyeu?

  because I'm like, these will be replicated, and I just need like a six-month lead, man. I don't need forever, like, I get it. People, as soon as I put it out into the world, people are gonna just go, oh, cool, thank you for that. You've distilled something, and now we're off and running. So, to sustain a business model, you do need to be a little bit ahead of your competition. Okay. So, but at the same time, we, to justify what AI has done in terms of learning from all of humanity, I think that there is an obligation to continue to allow AI to learn from all of humanity. Even if we say we don't want AI to get any smarter, we certainly want its level of intelligence now to be able to aggregate breakthroughs.

• 1:00:40Tom Bilyeu?

  And medicine becomes the easiest one to talk about. Gaming, maybe I have a bit more of an argument, because it's just games, it's entertainment. But in medicine, man, do you really want one company to be like hoarding breakthroughs, even though it's using AI to reach those breakthroughs? Do we say, and this does not feel like it's settled in my mind, so I want to be very clear, I reserve the right to completely reverse course on this. But right now, my instinct is, man, there are just some things where the whole idea, the whole reason that I'm willing to say, yes, AI has been trained on every thought I've ever had that I put out on the internet, and I'm okay with that, because I get to access every thought everybody else has had. And the AI is distilling these gigantic datasets into usable insights. Okay.

• 1:01:25Tom Bilyeu?

  So, my instinct at the beginning was, this was them just getting into the codex. Then it started changing as the people are actually comparing the approaches. It does seem like they were quite different. And so, now, it's like, that's when I started going, duh, this might be more just, I don't want AI to be better than a human. And you're gonna start feeling people's vibe shift from, oh my god, this is really helpful, to, I don't want the insight, I don't want to live longer. You will hear people say that. I don't, I don't care about living longer. I don't want to, they won't be able to say, I don't want to feel meaningless or useless, but that'll be the thing that's driving it. So that's in, I think we're in the middle of this.

• 1:02:10Tom Bilyeu?

  Nobody knows what the real outcome is yet in terms of what really happened. But I think that is the most important part of this debate right now, which is, okay, I didn't need it to be me. I want to know if it was me, and if it was me, I certainly want to get the credit. But if it wasn't me, I'm just glad somebody solved this problem. If we migrate to that, I'll feel good. If we stay at, but it wasn't a human and therefore I completely throw away the insight, that will be a very sad day.

• 1:02:38Speaker 01

  Yeah, I don't know. I think from the concept of AI, I'm equating it with the concept of the internet, then it's like, yeah, cool. Like, I would want AI to learn everything. I want AI to get better and be based off of the most breakthrough novel information. But when we get specifically to the LLMs, to Anthropic and to OpenAI, I do think this has a short-term effect of hurting their businesses versus helping push the narrative. Because this is now the third example of, we said we're going to bring our business into AI, trying to find, trying to work more productively, trying to find more breakthroughs. And then now Figma did it. They came out with Claude Design. There was some biotech company that came out, then Anthropic has started down to design drugs. And now OpenAI is like, oh, you were working on us with that math problem? Oh, yeah, we solved it too.

• 1:03:24Speaker 01

  Eventually, you're not going to be able to beat the allegations and people are going to go open source, offline.

• 1:03:29Tom Bilyeu?

  Great.

• 1:03:29Speaker 01

  Self-generated AI, and then that might then hurt the bottom lines of those top frontier companies.

• 1:03:34Tom Bilyeu?

  Literally, it doesn't matter. So this is where the free market needs to step in and say, yeah, I'm going to create a solution because you guys are being dirtbags. And that is completely unacceptable and it creates an opportunity. Right now, everybody's impulse is daddy, come and save me. And daddy is the government. And so everybody wants the government to come in and slap people around. There is a place for that. I want to be very clear. I am not somebody who believes in no government. That, to me, is just a crazy stance. But at the same time, I would much rather see the open market solve these problems than just the government. The government should only solve problems that the open market won't. And when you see that open source is already addressing this,

• 1:04:18Tom Bilyeu?

  companies are already turning to open source so they can pull it inside, change the weights. And anybody paying attention is going to look at this and go, oh, I'm not going to be able to compete on compute. I'm going to have to be a distilled model that operates on smaller variables, but I can pull that into my own environment, tweak the, they're called weights. But if you think of it as the way it thinks, I'm going to tweak the way that it thinks. So now I actually have something proprietary. And this is like me hiring and training employees that are very, very smart. And, but they're unique and only we have them. Now, the world can avail themselves of our outputs, but they cannot avail themselves of our inputs. And to me, that feels very fair.

• 1:05:02Tom Bilyeu?

  And so rather than trying to get the government to come in and say, okay, like, you guys have to do AI this way, which then will hurt the open source models. Far better for them to make sure that the young upstart companies are able to get off the ground and aren't immediately crushed by these big companies. Let's talk about a pattern that is guaranteed to be killing your progress. You know what you need to do. You need consistent nutrition. We all do. You need vitamins, probiotics, greens. We all know that we should be doing more of it. When your morning gets chaotic, you skip it. When you travel, you skip it. When your routine breaks, everything tends to break. And that inconsistency compounds against you every single day.

• 1:05:46Tom Bilyeu?

  AG1 is designed to solve the execution problem. One scoop, eight ounces of water, and you're done. You're getting 75-plus ingredients, vitamins and minerals, pre and probiotics, nutrient-dense superfoods, everything that used to require six, seven different supplements, and perfect planning now happens in one drink that takes about 30 seconds to make. Right now, AG1 is giving you $87 worth of free gifts with your first subscription. You get a welcome kit, travel packs, vitamin D3 plus K2, and flavor samples. Click the link in the show notes or visit drinkag1.com/impact to claim this offer.