The CIA Has Been Arming Kurds in Iran | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

We break down the escalating conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, including recent strikes, Iranian retaliation, and the risk of a wider regional war. Jonathan Hackett, Jack Murphy, and Jason Lyons analyze the military options, geopolitical stakes, and what the next phase of escalation could look like in the Middle East. Jon Hackett's Book:⬇️ https://a.co/d/082z28uY The High Side :⬇️ https://thehighside.substack.com/ Support the show on Patreon:⬇️ https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouse Subscribe to our new newsletter!!!! https://teamhousepodcast.kit.com/join Whitefish Security Summit ⬇️ https://whitefishsecuritysummit.com/ New merch, patches, and stickers! ⬇️ https://theteamhouse-shop.fourthwall.com Check out Mick's new podcast here:⬇️ Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/at/podcast/pub-and-porch-applied-stoicism/id1836955475 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1k3QPmkAMwnGJxMLDwUSSd?si=n6piIu8XRcag1Z0K43A3bQ Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCd0Hq6QFk8CoTu5j-VU0Ong Find Mick Mulroy here: Fogbow ⬇️ https://fogbow.com/ Lobo Institute ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/ Twitter ⬇️ https://x.com/mickmulroy?s=21&t=-Ze3F_Ix2vlJ18KFvORTCA LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/ Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/mickmulroy.bsky.social Mick’s publications ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/publications/publications-of-michael-mick-patrick-mulroy/ Find Marc P here: https://x.com/Mpolymer Find Andy Milburn here: Twitter ⬇️ https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8 LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023 Substack ⬇️ https://amilburn.substack.com/ Andy’s book ⬇️ https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/andy-milburn.bsky.social Find Jason Lyons here: LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lyons-666873316?u Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/bgsilverback73.bsky.social "Karl Casey @ White Bat Audio" 00:00 Iran War Update & Leadership Crisis 02:33 Did the U. S. Know Israel Would Strike Iran? 05:00 Why There’s No Anti-War Movement in the U. S. 12:20 Iran Attacks U. S. Bases & Gulf Targets 21:10 Arming Iranian Kurds for a Possible Ground War 34:40 How Iran Could Escalate Across the Middle East 49:30 Risks to U. S. Troops, Bases & Civilians 1:05:10 Where the Iran War Goes Next Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Speaker 00

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• 0:58Speaker 02

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• 1:38Speaker 02

  Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. I'm joined today with Jack Murphy, Jason Lyons, Jonathan Hackett. I believe the Muscles from Brussels is coming. Andy will be here shortly.

• 1:51Speaker 02

  Yeah, a lot going on. We're doing a double, double whammy this week of Isans because uh, you know, obviously the war continues against Iran. A lot has happened. I don't even know where I'm gonna start. I'm literally haven't even decided yet. But let's start with, let's start with the fact that they picked a new supreme leader, which is uh, Khomeini's son, his second son. Um, but they don't know if he's, if people are alive because they bombed the council. What is it called? Council of Experts?

• 2:23Speaker 03

  Assembly of Experts.

• 2:24Speaker 02

  Of Experts? Yeah. They bombed that when that was going on. So it really seems like we really want to negotiate with whoever comes out on top of this.

• 2:33Speaker 02

  A lot's been happening. There's like so many things. I think six service members have died. Uh, and I think 20 plus have been wounded on the American side. Uh, Iran keeps continuing to hit all the Gulf states around them.

• 2:47Speaker 02

  Targeting, mostly targeting, they are targeting civilian uh, stuff like infrastructure and stuff like that. But they're targeting a lot of military stuff. Like you see some satellite images of our bases in and around the area. They don't look like they're doing super great. Word is, is like another big uh, wave coming from us, from on our side on Iran. And I'm sure it's been happening all day. Uh, another big part of news was there's an article that came out like literally like maybe an hour ago, two hours ago, talking about that the US has been supplying arms to the Iranian Kurds since last year. And with it's supposedly like a ground thing is supposed to start within the next couple of days.

• 3:29Speaker 02

  They asked Israel and the US if they would provide uh, you know, fire support. There's no word on whether that we agreed to that. So yeah, a lot's happening and I'm sure I missed that. I mean, you, I'm sure you guys all saw like Rubio and Pete Hegseth's um, press conference. I mean, Marco Rubio just basically let the cat out of the bag saying that uh, we knew Israel's gonna hit them. So, and we knew that they were gonna attack our base. So we just hit them too. It's like.

• 4:04Speaker 02

  I don't, I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but Israel runs our shit. Let's be honest. Okay? Guys, what do you have?

• 4:11Speaker 03

  Well, I'll say that today when they were meeting with Mertz, Trump, you know, he fixed that. He mentioned that, uh, he had a feeling that Iran would attack the US and that's why it wasn't because of Israel telling Rubio anything.

• 4:22Speaker 02

  He had a feeling like what? He read like the tea leaves? He went to a psychic? Cause if, if there was, if there was real intelligence about that happening, they would be fucking leaking it from a week before.

• 4:33Jack Murphy?

  The, I mean, the thing is like, the lies they're telling us aren't really meant to be believed. And it's just this interesting sort of separation with reality that 20 years ago, they had to lie to us about WMDs, about, you know, fighting for freedom, all these sorts of things. And today they don't have to do that anymore. Um, they just have to produce social media content and enough of Congress and enough of the, uh, population of the United States. I mean, even though this has very low approval, there's no real anti-war movement in this country. Um, there hasn't been since like maybe the seventies. Um, so I, I mean, it's interesting that like, they don't really have to make the case and Congress, you know, some, some of them have said belatedly, you have to make the case,

• 5:18Jack Murphy?

  but he doesn't really have to. If he doesn't want to, it doesn't seem, so I'm not really sure, uh, what we're doing here, but I mean, it's scary times in that regard. It, it feels like a lot of the safeguards are, are off.

• 5:31Speaker 03

  I'm concerned about the Americans that are in the Middle East, like civilians, because a lot of this kind of scattershot announcement over social media, the state department's been doing that too, and they haven't been doing a very good job coordinating evacuations of people. And actually Rubio just pleaded this afternoon with media organizations to help amplify the state department's messaging about evacuation plans, because it seems like the state department no longer has the ability on its own, like it used to, to communicate to people in country, because it must've been dismantled, I assume.

• 6:02Speaker 05

  One of the uh, I'm sorry, he was he posted on, one of the um, embassies put out something that said, hey, don't come here, we can't help you.

• 6:12Speaker 02

  Yeah, Jerusalem. No, Jerusalem.

• 6:16Speaker 05

  Yeah, that doesn't um, invoke much confidence.

• 6:19Speaker 02

  It said like, we're not gonna help anybody get out, like if you want, jump on a bus and head to fucking Egypt, like that's what we said to people, which is fucking insane.

• 6:28Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 6:28Speaker 03

  I remember in 2008 out in Lebanon, we had the conflict there, we were, we were doing a Neo with civilian boats.

• 6:35Speaker 05

  Yep.

• 6:36Speaker 02

  What's Neo? Sorry.

• 6:38Speaker 03

  Noncombatant evacuation.

• 6:39Speaker 02

  Yeah, uh, I mean, I don't know where you guys want to take this, I mean, the messaging is absolutely, absolutely piss poor, I think Trump came out or since, since you sent me this Jonathan, right? Where Trump sent, sent something over to like Congress in terms of like, you know, what they're, what there's, what the aims are? And number one on the list is ballistic missiles, which outside of our bases that are in the area have no threat to the United States, continental United States. And Alaska, they definitely can hit.

• 7:11Speaker 02

  And the second, the third, I think the fourth on the list was a nuclear weapon, which by all accounts, they were not continuing their progress on building a nuclear weapon. Rumor is that the negotiations were at the point where Iran was offering to give up all their 60% uranium to the United States, to bring it to us. Let us like refine it back down, and they would only refine up to 1.5, no sunset clauses either that were in the JCPOA number one. And we still fucking bombed them. Over the weekend as well, uh, Netanyahu was chirping everywhere on, on Israeli media, saying how the negotiations were essentially a ruse to get our, you know, get

• 7:52Speaker 02

  the Jer, uh, the one aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean and stuff like that, uh, and get things in position and move whatever that we had to move. So it's like, were we down for the negotiations? Was it ever a fucking thing for the, like to try and denuclearize Iran? Like, like they're just fucking playing us and, and that's a fact, like.

• 8:13Speaker 03

  I'll jump in there on the missiles, actually. So I was talking to somebody about this today. So before the conflict started, there was an estimation of between 1,500 to 3,000 ballistic missiles of any range whatsoever, including short range, medium range, long range. And they're firing about a rate of 25 per hour. If you do the math on that, if it's a sustained rate 25 per hour since Saturday morning, that's five days of missiles in their entire arsenal of every range. Some of those are going to fail. Some of those are not in good condition. Some of those are not operationally ready. They have 80,000 drones. They can produce up to 300 drones per month if we haven't destroyed their drone production facilities.

• 8:49Speaker 03

  Which is kind of a concern more, I think, than the ballistic missiles, especially it's a lot easier to destroy a transporter, erector launcher, or a missile, a fixed missile site than it is to destroy drones that are very tiny. That it can actually penetrate through airspace. But if that's the number one reason that this conflict is going on, that's a very finite. Military objective that could easily be communicated to the world about, hey, we're going to destroy these facilities, this number of facilities. Without, and it doesn't really reveal anything. I remember during the Hagseth speech, he was, you know, very cagey about saying anything at all. And even shot down, I think it was an NBC reporter that asked him, you know, what's the military objective? And he kind of got upset at her for asking that question.

• 9:30Speaker 03

  He said, that was like a legacy media ploy to ask this type of question to like inform the American public about the objectives.

• 9:35Jack Murphy?

  I'm surprised Hagseth didn't say that having strategic goals is gay and woke.

• 9:40Speaker 03

  Right, yeah. Well, he did say that there's no need for rules of engagement anymore.

• 9:45Jack Murphy?

  Yeah.

• 9:45Speaker 02

  Yeah, stupid rules of engagement and politically correct wars.

• 9:49Speaker 03

  He also called the last 20 years of conflict dumb wars, which me, I mean, that kind of offends the nearly 4,000 service members that died fighting in those wars.

• 9:58Speaker 02

  Wasn't he, didn't he serve in those wars too?

• 10:01Jack Murphy?

  Yeah.

• 10:02Speaker 02

  Yeah, like.

• 10:04Jack Murphy?

  In a lot of this, I mean, part of it, like to put a thumb on the veteran community, you know, those of us who did serve in the war on terror years, and I know there's a huge diversity of views out there amongst veterans, it's not monolithic. But I do notice a lot of them supporting this campaign as sort of not a pragmatic policy decision, but as a catharsis for what they experienced throughout the war. Part of it is, you know, that the Iranians legitimately were targeting American soldiers during the war, that that happened. And then part of it, I think, in my opinion, is that the war has failed. And there's an attempt to regain some dignity and some honor in

• 10:49Jack Murphy?

  the aftermath of two failed conflicts. But I'm not sure that that is enough in of itself to legitimize or justify fighting a new war, because the last one was dumb. I need a little bit more to go on than that.

• 11:04Speaker 03

  I mean, in the alternative, we could do something kind of like Kosovo and Bosnia, where we captured and arrested the top level folks. I mean, that's Delta Force did a lot of that capturing in the 90s. Bring them to justice internationally, not just for the United States, but internationally, because there were a lot of NATO allies and Iraqi partners that were killed and maimed from those explosively formed penetrators. And instead of bringing them to justice, we're just dropping bombs.

• 11:27Jack Murphy?

  And yeah, on that too, you know, the whole concept, if you're going to do an assassination, right? If you're going to take out the leadership, we're calling it a decapitation strike. You know, that makes sense if, for instance, you know, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, he's number three in line. I don't know that in Iran. I'm just making an example. And you've compromised him. He works for the CIA, he works for Mossad, whatever, that it makes total sense to take out number one and number two, because you're going to move your guy up into the number one position. But from what our own government has been telling us, they're blowing away the entire succession plan that they had in mind. They're killing all of these people.

• 12:11Jack Murphy?

  Okay, I mean, is it killing for the sake of killing? We're on the record saying we're not doing nation building. We're not doing these long wars. We're not doing forever wars. Well, actually, Trump did say we can fight forever today. Um, but, but it's ostensibly a break with the past, with the past conflicts. But I just don't see any like cohesive plan. And I think that's because there is no cohesive plan, that all of this is just being done off the cuff.

• 12:40Speaker 03

  It feels like there's a tension between General Kane on the military planning side and then the policy side, where General Kane seems to have a very deliberate military, at least at the operational level, maybe not strategic, but the operational level, it clearly seems to be well formed from, you know, as well formed as it can be. But there's no connection to that and strategic end states. And it seems like there is no desire to have a strategic end state attached to this operational activity.

• 13:05Jack Murphy?

  And it like to get into the ground game, because I do want to get to the Kurds a little bit, since we're on this topic.

• 13:14Jack Murphy?

  But again, when you're going to launch some sort of an air campaign like this, and by the way, I don't think we've ever transitioned a country or regime to a democracy with an air campaign alone. I don't think that's happened since, you know, the last 80 years, if ever.

• 13:31Jack Murphy?

  But when you do something like that, you know, it should work in tandem with an unconventional warfare strategy that you have a shadow government in waiting that you have built up. And at least from the people I've spoken to over the years, we have no shadow government in Iran, like that doesn't exist. There has been operational preparation of the environment. A lot of that has to do with non-assisted recovery routes that hopefully we never have to use.

• 13:57Jack Murphy?

  But as far as the ground game, I mean, yeah, the news that came out today about the Kurds in, in Western Iran, it's the Pak, and then there's one other group over there too, one Kurdish group, the last I knew. It's been a while since I've looked at this, so forgive me if I'm a little off.

• 14:13Speaker 03

  It's the PJAC.

• 14:14Jack Murphy?

  PJAC, yeah, yeah, thank you.

• 14:18Jack Murphy?

  And the Kurds, I mean, this whole notion of Greater Kurdistan, right? So I was in a gunrunner's office for the PKK about 10 years ago. And this dude had a map up on the wall. And that map showed how they perceive Kurdistan. And the boundaries of Kurdistan for them went from the Persian Gulf on the Persian side in in Western Iran, up the side of the Persian Gulf into the area of Northern Iraq that is currently Kurdistan, which is currently Kurdish-held, into northeast Syria, the area

• 14:58Jack Murphy?

  that became called Rajava, and up into Turkey, southern Turkey, connecting to the Mediterranean. Now, that is a huge swath of land connecting the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean that they perceive as, you know, their homeland, that they would like to turn into a nation, or at least some factions would like to turn that into a cohesive Kurdish country, even though even Abdullah Ojolun has kind of backed away from that in so many ways and looked at other alternative forms of government rather than creating a Kurdish nation-state. But, and I don't know what you guys have been heard or may have read about. I do know that the CIA and Mossad have both been playing over there, I mean, all the

• 15:43Jack Murphy?

  way back to the 1980s. So it's not really a surprise that these guys have gotten weapons shipments. But how, you know, John or Jason, I mean, how would you assess their fighting capability on the ground? I mean, can they constitute a credible threat to the Iranian regime?

• 16:02Speaker 03

  So this goes back to 1946, when Mahabad, which is the provincial area where a lot of these PJAC guys are coming from, and Lake Ormya, which is the major water feature there, they had a separatist revolt against the Shah at that time. They survived for two years as an independent state under that that conflict in 1946. Very interesting thing to read about. I encourage listeners to read about it. It's something that helps you understand the Kurds a lot more. The Kurds that fought that rebellion back then were the Barzani family and one other family. They were, the end of their two-year conflict in Iran where they had independence ended when the Brits helped raise a Shah, pushed them west out of the country into Northern Iraq, and that's where the the current Barzani family came from.

• 16:44Speaker 03

  And that family has been obviously our close contact for many conflicts, as you've mentioned, and those are the combat-tested Ashmirgarh that everybody knows. The ones inside Iran never got that combat exposure, and they haven't had an opportunity to get real good tactical training that they would need to actually work together in a coordinated way. And the other problem is PJAC, that the section of the Kurds that's in western Iran, a large, there's a couple of different Kurdish groups like Congregel, for example, and some others, but this one PJAC, which would be leading the charge, is an arch-enemy of Turkey. And Iran has actually allowed Turkey to do airstrikes inside of Iran back in 2016, 17, to push back PJAC fighters away from Turkey's border. So it would be very

• 17:28Speaker 03

  hard to imagine that a NATO ally, Turkey, would allow PJAC to have any power in Iran. And I don't know if you've seen the media, but Netanyahu has already said that Turkey is a potential enemy of Israel soon. So that might even be another problem, like another movement on the chessboard of, okay, where does the threat move around now that the Kurds are coming into the picture, Turkey's getting upset, what does that mean for Israel pushing north, and they just occupied southern Lebanon, they're probably going to occupy southwest Syria. So I'm looking like bigger picture at the region of what does this mean if PJAC gets these weapons? It sounds so simple, that give these Kurds these weapons, they do a fight. But there are major ramifications regionally, especially for Turkey, if the

• 18:10Speaker 03

  PJAC gets these weapons. And I don't think, we talked about this in a previous episode, I don't think in the National Security Council that there's this level of understanding of which Kurds are which. And what happens if you give this group of Kurds something, and there's another group of Kurds that has total opposite political view, like in Rojava, there's even two different ways of looking at government in Rojava. One of those is a completely decentralized, almost like socialist system, and the other is kind of like a federalized state system, even in Rojava, which is in Syria. And the PJAC are not the leading Kurds, are not the only Kurds in western Iran. You know, there are Sunni Kurds, there's Shia Kurds, there are other Kurds are animists, you know, and the religion is very important for them, because especially with the way the terrain works, when you're isolated in

• 18:54Speaker 03

  a certain area, your religion and your culture, your language become your identity. And you can't just say that all these guys are Kurds and here's some weapons, because they might, instead of going against the far enemy in Tehran, there's a closer enemy across the mountain, you know?

• 19:11Jack Murphy?

  How does the relationship between the United States and Turkey hash out in a time where ostensibly if we're going to supply weapons and war material to PJAC when the United States seems that our policy right now is that we don't really care about NATO anymore?

• 19:29Speaker 03

  That's a great point, actually. Today, Trump said in response to Spain, so Spain doesn't want the US using Khedis or Rota. And so Trump said, well, we can just land our aircraft there anyway, and nobody can stop us, which is a very concerning thing to hear about Spain, also threatening to cut off trade with Spain. And the EU quickly shot back and said, Spain doesn't own its own trade outside of the EU. The EU determines trade for the EU, et cetera. So that will be an interesting development, and that's not even a faraway NATO partner. That's a very close NATO and EU partner, right?

• 19:59Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 20:02Jack Murphy?

  Sorry, Jack, go ahead. Oh, I was just going to point out, like, in 2003, we had this real big problem with the Turks and getting 10 Special Forces Group across the border. They ended up having to go, a lot of them through Romania, and a few guys got across the border with like some of their gear. But I mean, the Turks really made it difficult on the SF guys to do that for the same reason, that they didn't want us working with the Kurds. They didn't want us supporting the Kurds.

• 20:29Speaker 03

  Yeah, that happened in 2016. Part of my team was in northern Syria, and they got photographed wearing YPG patches. And that was kind of a little bit after the time we were saying there was no forces in Syria and all that. So not only are they seeing forces in Syria, they're also seeing the YPG patch on the guy's shoulder, which is, you know, Turkey would say is a peacock.

• 20:49Jack Murphy?

  Yeah, there was really weird stuff that happened back in those days, like when the Turks had their TAC in Turkey, and you'd have like American Special Forces and Turkish Special Forces. And like, we're working with Turkey to attack ISIS in Syria, but we're also working with the Kurds to attack ISIS in Syria. But we don't want the Turks to know that we're working with the Kurds, and we all kind of have to pretend that we don't know what's going on here. Like, war makes for strange bedfellows, as you know, all of you guys know.

• 21:17Speaker 02

  I have a question. What happens if Israel were to attack Turkey, a NATO country?

• 21:25Speaker 02

  What happens? What does the United States do? What does NATO do?

• 21:29Speaker 03

  Well, Israel is a major non-NATO ally, so they're pretty close. They have nuclear weapons. Turkey has our nuclear weapons, but that doesn't mean Turkey can use them. And I think that that would kind of answer your question right there. There's not much Turkey could do.

• 21:44Speaker 02

  That's good. I mean, you know who this, I feel like this benefits is specifically like you see the EU gas prices have gone up pretty high. Straight of Hormuz is essentially de facto shut down. It's like at a crawl, if that.

• 21:59Speaker 02

  So the Europeans are going to get their gas from somewhere and it's going to be Russia. So that money goes into Putin's pocket. The weapons were used.

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• 24:05Speaker 02

  ... to bomb Iran currently are not going to be weapons that the EU could buy from us to give to Ukraine to fight Putin. Um, yeah, I, I, I don't know if there's a fucking grown up in that room at all.

• 24:18Speaker 03

  I think the big winner here is China.

• 24:21Speaker 05

  I was just going to ask about what your thoughts on China's role in this.

• 24:26Speaker 03

  Yeah, I mean, first of all, we've moved carrier strike groups that aren't typically in the region at the same time to that region away from where they could respond to China. And if China's looking at this as a great opportunity to do something in the Straits of Taiwan, because the US's willpower to respond to that is very low already. The US has already signaled very little tolerance for helping Taiwan gain any sort of independence or even pushing back on anything Xi is saying about Taiwan. And Xi has messaged that within the next three to six years, he intends to incorporate Taiwan into the mainland like 100%. And we haven't pushed back on that from a policy perspective. This would be a fantastic time if I was a Chinese person to push into Taiwan.

• 25:06Jack Murphy?

  Do they have the capacity to do that, like actual sea power to do that yet?

• 25:11Speaker 03

  So it's hard to project power, obviously, or it's like 100 miles or so. But they could without US interference.

• 25:19Jack Murphy?

  Yeah, make it to the beach.

• 25:21Speaker 03

  The hard part is about the, the ground landing of forces. This is what the big, the big problem with the taking of Taiwan is the ground forces on the western side of the island because the terrain goes up almost 90 degree angle. But if they're going to use a lot of missiles, especially their hypersonic missiles that they've been claiming that they have, that could be a game changer. They could also, without, without US denial of the sea lanes, they could actually move around the other side of the island and start doing things on that side. Because, you know, Taiwan doesn't have a navy to compare to China. The navy that Taiwan relies on is the US Navy. And if the US Navy refuses to help.

• 25:54Jack Murphy?

  I had, I mean, this is not totally apropos, but I mean, just reality versus perception. I had a conversation with someone who, you're retired intelligence community guy, smart guy, you know, that I respect. But he told me that, you know, he's like, you know, all of this is really about fighting China, like Venezuela, Iran, it's all playing into this like 4D chess strategy to cut China's, you know, source of energy off and energy trade. And I'm like, I'm sorry, man, but this, this feels like it's a coping mechanism for failed policy. I don't know.

• 26:35Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 26:35Jack Murphy?

  How you can look at it.

• 26:36Speaker 03

  Plus, China's been developing its own self-sustainment for energy for years now, and they're going to achieve that eventually where they don't need to rely on the rest of the world for their energy. And that's going to be a real problem for the US because that's what we've been squeezing them with is the sanctions on Iranian oil, making it extremely expensive to purchase that oil, which they still purchase, it's just more expensive. But once that's removed, they can kind of go off on their own and become first a regional power, which they're already kind of become, especially in the Pacific and all the way down to Australia. And after that, they're going to look like the big boy in the room because Russia's doing all kinds of things in Ukraine. The US is doing all kinds of things in the Middle East, and China can say, I'm not doing anything anywhere.

• 27:12Jack Murphy?

  Right. Yeah.

• 27:15Speaker 02

  Also, like, it doesn't look great, too, that there's just talk about moving Patriot batteries from Korea over back to the bases in the Middle East. Like, doesn't really, you know, if I'm Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, I'm not exactly like amped about that.

• 27:35Jack Murphy?

  Do we, I'm sure like the exact numbers are classified, but do we have any inkling of like magazine depth on both sides, America versus Iran? Like, who's going to run out of ammo first?

• 27:46Speaker 03

  So Iran will run out first for sure. And a lot of that has to do with the maritime prepositioning forces that the US has that previously somewhere in Diego Garcia, others are in other places now because the British the British government's having a problem with the Chagos Islands, which was part of Mauritius and part of Britain before that. They're not letting us use Diego Garcia for that reason. But there are other places that have these prepositioning forces that can push sustainment up and replenish magazine depth. And also, I think the defense industrial base, not only the United States, but if NATO decides to invoke Article Five because of the strike on Cyprus, that'll dramatically increase the US access to munitions, which perhaps they won't openly declare Article Five. They may

• 28:27Jack Murphy?

  Threaten to.

• 28:28Speaker 03

  Without declaring it, or they may just begin pushing munitions to the US to help, you know, ostensibly to protect against the Eastern Mediterranean, which the British are moving a ship over there right now. France is moving a nuclear vessel there right now. So it's possible that without an actual like vocal agreement to the world, they may begin adding magazine depth to the US themselves.

• 28:50Jack Murphy?

  Interesting.

• 28:52Speaker 02

  Also, Qatar did, uh, just a bit of news from today. Qatar did send over like three, I think it was three missiles and like 20 drones and hit Iran, uh, back. Um, so yeah, just chaos everywhere. Um, where do we go from here? So like, are the Kurds a real, um, we mentioned it a little bit, are they a real option in terms of?

• 29:15Jack Murphy?

  Right. Can they destabilize the Iranian regime? Can they open up, um, a front that would, you know, if they can't do it themselves, at least open up that front for political change?

• 29:27Speaker 03

  Yeah, without defection at a like specific level from the current government, you're not going to be able to use a single faction in the western part of a 90 million person country.

• 29:38Jack Murphy?

  Yeah, it's, um, I'm sure the Kurds, you know, they get, they get, you know, antsy in their pantsy whenever this kind of stuff happens. Um, and I have to believe the Iranian Kurds see this as like Rajava point two, like this is our big moment to carve out a swath of this country for ourselves. Um, you know, and I'm sympathetic to the Kurds in many ways, but I mean, even, even the, the political project in Rajava unfortunately is under enormous strain right now.

• 30:07Speaker 03

  Well, it's the thing with the Kurds, you know, it's not a monolith, just like Iran. I mean, there are many different Kurds, many different, and even their languages, some of them are not even intelligible to each other.

• 30:15Jack Murphy?

  Oh, yeah, they speak Saurani and Kumaji and yeah.

• 30:20Speaker 03

  Yeah. And in the western part of the country, you don't just have the Kurds, you also have the Azeris. And the Azeris were the ones that actually had the first uprising in 1945 with Soviet help. And declared an independent state and actually kept their independent state until the Russians agreed with the Iranian government to tell the Azeris to stop being independent and join back to the country. So the Azeris have also been itching for an independent state. That doesn't mean an Iranian state led by Azeris. That means a separate country in the northwest of Iran. And I think the Kurds want the same thing. They don't want to rule Iran. They want to rule Kurdistan. And Kurdistan to them is very closely tied to the land that they live on, to the territory they they hold, which is just the west of Iran.

• 31:02Speaker 05

  So hopping back to what D was saying about the strikes in Qatar, I was listening to a unnamed YouTube.

• 31:14Speaker 05

  He's a kind of an influencer and he was saying that anyone who feels like this could become, even have his chance of becoming a regional conflict, doesn't know what they're talking about. What are your thoughts on that?

• 31:29Speaker 03

  It seems like it is a regional conflict.

• 31:30Speaker 05

  Yeah, that's what I said.

• 31:33Jack Murphy?

  Twelve countries involved.

• 31:35Speaker 03

  Yeah, I mean, it's even perhaps even like a pre-World War I scenario where you have like this Eastern European problem, this web of alliances that are, you know, everybody thinks that they're very well intact until something squeezes somebody somewhere and that they all turn in a different way that you didn't expect. Not saying there's World War III happening, I'm just saying that the tangled web of alliances absolutely indicates a regional conflict has already begun. It hasn't just already begun, it's been ongoing. I mean, think about when the Saudis and the Emiratis invaded Yemen. Is that not a regional conflict beginning, you know?

• 32:09Jack Murphy?

  I mean, the interesting thing, and I had this conversation with some people when Gaza first happened, that there were fears in the Pentagon that the conflict in Gaza could, in a sense, merge with the conflict in Ukraine. Not like literally merge, like, you know, you're not going to see Israeli tanks rolling across into Kursk. Like, that's obvious. But from a standpoint of alliances, right? Like, how we're all choosing sides, that it becomes one large conflict. You think there's a possibility for that to happen here?

• 32:41Speaker 03

  Well, even in Ukraine, we had North Korean soldiers fighting in Ukraine. So, I mean, that's even right there. I mean, the link between Russia and North Korea, right there in Ukraine. And even in Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2000, it was 2020, September 2020 and August 2020. And if you remember this, there was the fight in Nagorno-Karabakh. And the Russians went in and defended the Muslims, and the Iranians went in and defended the Christians, and the Turks went in and defended the Sunnis. Very interesting conflict because of who was supporting whom. The Russians and the Turks brought in Syrians from Syria, battalions of Syrians from the same operational units, the National Defense Forces, which Iran created, by the way, brought them in to fight against each other in Nagorno-Karabakh. You know,

• 33:25Speaker 03

  so it's just a very interesting way that the region speaks to the world in a way that I think Westerners don't understand.

• 33:31Jack Murphy?

  Yeah.

• 33:34Speaker 02

  Dude, that's so insane. Also, the funny, I don't know if you guys saw any of Lindsey Graham's clips over the last couple of days, but he's talking about, like, saving Sunni Muslims and stuff like that from the Shias. It's like, haven't we been fucking smoking Sunnis for like, since 2001? Like?

• 33:52Speaker 03

  He keeps talking about the Iran trying to export the revolution, which that was true in like, 1979 through 81. And when Saddam invaded Iran, that ended. And literally, it actually ended inside the regime. They actually made a decision to stop doing that. And that's actually why Khamenei became the Ayatollah and not a different person, because the other person, Montesiri, was like a very export the revolution guy. And the previous, the first Ayatollah said, "We can't have that. We can't be doing that anymore." So, he can't be it. He actually got disqualified for that. That's a major reason he was disqualified. And Lindsey Graham remembers that because, you know, your formative years, you just, like, keep it with you, what you heard back then. And like, that's what he heard back then. That's what he's continuing to believe. But you want to talk about exporting something? Look at jihad. I mean Sunni Salafi jihadism.

• 34:36Speaker 03

  That has literally been exported around the entire planet. I remember in June 2014, June 10th, 2014, when ISIS declared caliphate in Mosul. And the same day, there were Indonesians in Bali declaring bayat to Baghdadi. You know, I mean, that that is a globalized problem. And I think the concept of exporting the revolution is just like, it's like a fantasy now. That was true back then was has not been true for years.

• 35:02Jack Murphy?

  It's like the Cubans trying to export the revolution to, you know, West Africa or Central America.

• 35:07Speaker 03

  Yeah, Angola. Exactly. Yeah. And the Cubans did fight in Angola. They sent a couple thousand troops to Angola.

• 35:16Speaker 02

  Um, I don't know. So let's talk about the successor. They picked Khamenei's son. I don't remember his first name, Jonathan. Of course, you know it. Thank you.

• 35:28Speaker 02

  But the 88, you know, the Assembly of Experts got bombed. So I don't know if the guy made it out. I don't know if there's any word on whether he made it out or not. So what do you think happens now? Have you heard that? Has he made it out? Or has there been any word about it?

• 35:43Speaker 03

  I haven't seen if he is alive or not. The the issue is if he is alive. There's another gentleman named Ali Reza, Ali Reza Arafi. And Arafi, you remember on the last episode, we were talking about there's a group of three people that sits down like, makes the shortlist and then sends the shortlist to the Assembly of Experts. So Arafi was the third guy on that because there was Peseshki and the president. Then there has to be a cleric, which is Arafi. The third guy got killed in the in the bombing of Khamenei. Right? So Arafi believes that he should actually be the new supreme leader himself. And there may be a power struggle between Arafi and Mochtaba. Especially because Khamenei said he didn't want his son to succeed under him because he didn't want to create a hereditary government.

• 36:30Speaker 03

  And it could be that Mohtaba was selected because Larry Johnny and Goli Boff, the two IRGC guys that I've been mentioning that are the core of the regime wanted Mohtaba because he's an easy choice. And Arafi might feel slighted and there might be some other dynamics that we're not aware of, obviously, because it, I mean, imagine if you're over there right now, people are freaking out and they're making decisions on a very short notice without really thinking things through. I'm curious to see that if they're not dead, what might happen in that power struggle? Between the clerical class and the IRGC who actually wants to run the country.

• 37:00Speaker 02

  I got a question about like, I guess even just in Tehran, like just the city.

• 37:06Speaker 02

  You know, we saw a ton of protesting happen like five, six weeks ago, tens of like 10, I don't know how many 30,000 ish people have been were killed by the regime.

• 37:18Speaker 02

  Obviously, they're not going to come out and protest right now because their cities currently get and their country's currently getting bombed. But in terms, I don't know if you heard anything in terms of chatter or something like that, is there some kind of effort? Being built up for when the bombing does slow down in terms of the people getting out there and protesting or doing, you know, something? I kind of want to know the pulse. Yeah.

• 37:43Speaker 03

  They were, they were protesting the day before the strikes happened. Some of them went inside, but then once Khamenei was killed, they were out in the streets dancing. They're, they're literally dancing and celebrating and they have this little thing that looks like a mouse that they put up on a stick. Because in Iran, there's this cultural reference to Khamenei because they, they think he's like the squirrely mousy guy that's always hiding. So they hang this mouse on a stick and they're all out there with a mouse and a stick, just cheering that this guy's dead. Like he's like hanging like hung with a, a noose. Cheering that he's dead. So, and that's amidst the bombing that they're doing this. Because a lot of Iranians, they've had enough. I mean, they, they, every, if you talk to an Iranian who lives in Iran, everyone you talk to knows somebody that was killed.

• 38:25Speaker 03

  There is a widespread murder in January and everybody knows somebody and they're, they're fed up with it. And I've spoken to a few Iranians who say, you know, we've always been concerned about Israel getting involved in Iran and all this and like the US. Doing things in Iran like with Mohammed Mosadegh in nineteen fifty-three and then other things as well. And they said, even that, we want Israel and the US to come in and help now. We need help. And we don't care who it is. We need this guy gone. We need this regime gone. And the the concern now, I mean, in January, when Trump said help was on the way and they didn't help. And then people went outside and were executed because they thought the US was coming. Like, they wouldn't have all come out as much as they did if the US didn't say that. And now, again, the US originally said this is about regime change, even Netanyahu said that.

• 39:08Speaker 03

  And if if that's true, certain conditions need to occur. Certain things need to happen to allow those people to feel safe enough to go out and continue with what they're doing. But then Trump has, in the past few days, said it's not about regime change. It's about fizzle material and missiles. And now the people are probably wondering, well, maybe we shouldn't go out and protest anymore. Because we already learned the hard way in January not to trust the United States when they say we're gonna help you. And I don't want to lose my entire family because I trust the United States, right? So I think there's a decision crossroad right now where the people are watching. What is the US actually doing? Because there's a lot of messaging, obviously, and cross messages that don't make sense with each other. I think the people are trying to see what actually is going to happen, what's actually going on,

• 39:49Speaker 03

  before they make that risk a second time and risk losing their families completely this time.

• 39:57Speaker 05

  So in between the the the people on the streets and the upper echelons of the IRGC and the councils. Is there any sense of what the average military or intelligence or security personnel, what they're thinking is? I know they're just probably trying to keep their heads down. But do you think that there's something that could spur them to turn on their masters?

• 40:25Speaker 03

  Yes, there's two classes of people in the IRGC and in the Artesh. There's one class of like professional folks that are, you know, that's their job for many years. There's this thing called a sarbazi, which is a conscript. And the IRGC and the Artesh both have conscript classes. These are the ones that make up the majority, actually, of the forces. They're basically like privates that get a rifle and get a few weeks of training and they're part of the military for a year. And these are the ones that probably won't go get called up and go. They're probably gonna, many of them will stay home, and many of them are staying home. In fact, there's problems right now where in, especially in the provinces outside Tehran, a lot of the Artesh, which is the army conventional forces, Sarbazi conscripts are not showing up

• 41:06Speaker 03

  where they're being called to go because they're concerned about what's going to happen next. And a lot of them don't believe in the government, but they're forced. I mean, it's not, it's a requirement, it's not voluntary. They get called up and forced into this and they don't want to do it. And that's a big reason the regime actually brings in Iraqi Shia militia groups or Hash Doshabi groups into Iran to patrol the streets. And actually in January, when the massacres were going on, there were a lot of Iraqi Lebanese and Pakistani forces marching up and down the streets, conducting the regime's activities for them. Because there are, there are not enough Iranian conscripts that will respond to the call to murder their own people. Yeah. But there are plenty of Pakistani, Lebanese, Afghan and Syrian and Iraqi groups that

• 41:50Speaker 03

  the regime has cultivated over a long period of time called Liwas. And a Liwa is like a battalion of, of foreign forces. You know, you have Liwa Fatameyoun, uh, which, and Liwa Hadireyoun, which comes from Pakistan, that are like ideologically brainwashed to come in and fight for the regime. And that's, that's who's patrolling the streets with. That's wild. I didn't know that. IRGC, yeah.

• 42:12Speaker 02

  Yeah, I remember you mentioned this last time you were on, when the protests were so, were first popping off. Uh, it's incredible, right? Um, I mean, I'm, I'm assuming, but I'm going to ask, like, is the US or Israel or, and CIA or intelligence looking at like what, like, are they bringing in, uh, Shia, Iraqi Shia militias into like Tehran or something like, cause if they can't get, uh, contact with their conventional forces, they're gonna need somebody to backstop it, right? Like especially if the Kurds start shooting stuff up or even just to quell protests.

• 42:43Speaker 03

  You remember, we talked about the mosaic doctrine, which is the, the regime's way of decentralizing command and control. They activated the Mosaic doctrine a few days ago. And that means that you don't need directions from Tehran anymore. You just need directions from Sanandaj, which is the Kurdish area near the border of Iraq. Or you just need Mashad or Khorasan, the provincial headquarters there. And there's basically a Colonel or a Brigadier General who's in charge of that space. And that's the highest level of command that you need to care about in this Mosaic doctrine. And so those Iraqi forces that are being activated inside of Iraq and coming into Iran are being activated by the provinces on the border region that lead into Iraq. And this has been a huge problem for Iran and a huge problem for the US.

• 43:26Speaker 03

  But it's actually a primary avenue that Mossad is able to enter Iran without being detected. And a reason that the US is able to push Kurds into Iran. Because that border area between Iraq and Iran is very porous. It's not as porous as Afghanistan, Pakistan, which if you've been there, you know what I'm talking about. There's, you don't know which country you're standing in at any given point sometimes. But in the western part, those mountains are so unforgiving. They actually have these people called kholbar's, which are these kind of like Sherpas that help you navigate through the mountains to get to the other side. And there are no border guards there. There's no border, right? So I mean, there are some down in the south, especially near Basra. But as you get further up north in that border, it is completely wide open. And if those guys get the call to come help, they're going to just move across the border.

• 44:11Speaker 03

  You know, and unless you're, unless you're watching them closely with human, you're going to have a very hard time to, to notice even the troop strength moving across if they're moving across at all.

• 44:19Speaker 02

  Where are we in a week from now? Who wants to take a stab at that? Let's speculate.

• 44:25Speaker 02

  Mud wrestle, whoever wants to go first.

• 44:29Speaker 02

  Jack, you go first. I'm picking now.

• 44:31Jack Murphy?

  Oh, I mean, I don't know. I think probably over the next week, we're going to probably see more of the same kind of like volleys and counter volleys of fire going back and forth across the Persian Gulf. And Iranians, I think it's pretty clear they're trying to drag as many different players into the conflict as they can. So who knows who they're going to bomb next? Uh, I mean, I guess that's part of the deal.

• 44:56Speaker 03

  They're gonna run out of bombs. That's that's their problem. If they're gonna run out of missiles. And then the question is, what do they do after that? Just straight up guerrilla warfare? And I mean, looking back to 1980 through 1988, that that did start happening. They started running out of like big munitions and started just sending human beings across the field and they would see guys dying in front of them. They just walk over the bodies and keep going. And these ideologically brainwashed guys I was talking about earlier, those are the ones that will do that. Like they will, they will listen to that call, you know?

• 45:27Jack Murphy?

  There's something else that may or may not become relevant. A numbers station popped up in Iran right after the leadership cell got taken out in the airstrike. And for people who don't know, numbers stations are basically called out over shortwave radio, ham radio, and it's just somebody reciting off a series of numbers. And this is thought that it's how intelligence agencies communicate with recruited assets that are, you know, so-called behind enemy lines. So like if the Russians had sleeper cells in America, they could communicate with them this way.

• 46:10Jack Murphy?

  Using a one-time pad, it's pretty much uncrackable. You don't, you wouldn't have any idea what they're signaling to the cells. And like something like a dozen different countries around the world operate numbers stations, but the Iranians haven't until just this week. So the question is, what does that mean? Does it mean that the Iranians are just running a psychological operation on us to get our counterintelligence people all spun up and get and keep them busy? Or are they signaling to sleeper cells, hey, it's time to hit the cache site locations, pull out the demo and start conducting, you know? They would probably think of it as a regular warfare. We would probably call it terrorism.

• 46:55Jack Murphy?

  And I don't know. I don't know what the answer to that is, but I think it's going to be interesting to find out. You would think that after we dropped on Soleimani, that they would have activated some of these cells if they had them. But nothing happened. And now we are, let's see, we're about five days into this?

• 47:18Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 47:19Jack Murphy?

  So if there are sleeper cells and you do have to contact them clandestinely and then for them to get all of their shit together and then launch an attack, maybe they have to plan it if they haven't pre-planned it. Yeah, that could take a couple of weeks. But yeah, then again, I mean, it's quite possible that those sleeper cells simply don't exist.

• 47:40Speaker 03

  They've been using a lot of psychological warfare, actually, especially in social media, sending out a lot of imagery that's been AI enhanced, which is completely false, or from previous campaigns. Interestingly, if you look on with a VPN, if you go on Iran's news website, Tasneem, or IRIB, which is their broadcasting website, the propaganda that they're putting on there to their own people is fascinating to look at because they're claiming they're killing like a thousand Americans a day. And like, there's this like wild claims.

• 48:09Speaker 02

  Bag that Bob.

• 48:11Speaker 03

  But if you have the internet and you can go on there to see that, you can also see other websites that show you that that is clearly not true. It's just kind of interesting to think about like how like mentally they're approaching this situation. I have a friend who grew up in Iran their whole life. And when we were talking about the conflict in Syria, they were like, oh, yeah, Iran won that conflict in Syria. And I was like, no, the US won that conflict. It was just kind of this interesting, like, understanding where they came from as far as what they were told, especially without access to alternative narratives. They believe that's just true, you know?

• 48:43Jack Murphy?

  Yeah, it's like the the people in Egypt believed for so long that they won the Arab Israeli war because of the propaganda. And like, I think it wasn't until like the 90s until the truth started to come out and people were shocked.

• 48:57Speaker 03

  Yeah, information domain is extremely important. And in this campaign, I hope the US is using it also.

• 49:02Speaker 02

  What would that look like with the US using it?

• 49:06Speaker 03

  Well, I think they need to send broadcast messages inside of Iran using cell towers, sending out like the equivalent of a night letter, basically to Iranian cell phones, especially those affiliated with the regime. Especially because the internet right now is like 95% off and the 5% that's on are regime connected families. Well, that's perfect. Now you have a perfect target deck. That's not going to infect anyone that shouldn't be receiving it. And you can just blast it to them all the time. So then we in Afghanistan, we used to have this thing called a dead baby book. When we were doing interrogations until a period of time when Congress told us to stop doing that, but before that, we would actually take these books when we got our detainees, and I wouldn't even speak to them. I just showed them the pictures of these dead bodies, and they're like from all kinds of other conflicts. But this guy seeing this, that's from there, you know? And we would use it to psychologically like scare the shit out

• 49:51Speaker 03

  of them, basically. And you can be doing that all the time. And if you've anyone's been to SER school, you know, like, you can be exposed to an idea at first and be like, nah, that's not true. But then, once it's like, put into your brain like a worm, you're like, wait a minute. And then, then it's like, wait, this is true. You know? So, that is a really powerful tool, not just psychological operations, but like the persistence of information into the space, and that person has only access to that information. And you can control the way they think about things.

• 50:18Speaker 05

  Do you think that, uh, things like the dismantling of USAID and Voice of America has hampered our ability in the information war? As far as this-

• 50:28Speaker 03

  I think it's pretty clear. Yes, for sure. Yeah.

• 50:33Speaker 02

  Also seems like what you, we said before in terms of like, uh, how State Department's really not helping the people, uh, get out of the places, um, that it was kind of gutted. At least the, the resources were gutted for that. Man, I don't know. Uh, if you're an American, a- around there, it cannot be, even if you're in Israel, like where it's relatively safe.

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• 52:57Speaker 02

  I mean, technically it's not. They're getting pounded too. I mean, they're knocking most of the stuff out, but they're still getting hit pretty hard.

• 53:03Speaker 03

  I know a guy that's there. He went down 33 times into his bunker in 24 hours.

• 53:07Speaker 02

  Wow.

• 53:08Speaker 03

  I mean, it's just like super disruptive. And the thing is, you don't know when the next one's coming. So like, you get out of the bunker, you're like, okay, that was it, number 12. Then you like, try to go to bed, and like, boom, wakes you up again, you know?

• 53:19Speaker 02

  And a couple people were stuck in Dubai. Um, and you've seen some disruption too, like in terms of like everyday stuff, like F1s, I think killing their Saudi Arabia race and their Bahrain race, you know? And the Qatar one is, I think is down the line. So I think there's still time for that, but like right now, like they're looking at like canceling races.

• 53:42Speaker 03

  Yeah. Huge economic impact. I mean, not just on the energy, but like you're mentioning the tourism sector and Emirates Airlines and Qatar Airways. I mean, the Dubai airport itself was the busiest airport in the world, I believe. And that's turned off. You know, huge amount of economic value that these countries are losing just by doing, just by turning these things off, not even with the damage.

• 54:04Speaker 02

  Um, there's a ton of like differing reports, right? Like everyone's trying to get their information out. They're saying that like, there was a bunch of like satellite images of like before the strikes and after in terms of like American bases in the region. And there's a lot of American bases that have been pretty, pretty heavily damaged.

• 54:25Speaker 02

  How do we still operate in terms of like, you know, where are we sending out like our F-15s for sorties, right? In Kuwait, is it still in that on that base and we're just like whoever's essentials there and we try and hope like our Patriots take stuff down?

• 54:38Speaker 03

  I think it's a lot to do with redundancy that, you know, we're not going to have one golf ball antenna in Bahrain. That's it. You know, the aircraft carriers, the, the big decks, the LHDs, they all have the same redundancy systems. There are plenty of places to land besides Qatar and Bahrain that are close by. For example, Muafak Salty, the airbase in Jordan and some other places that are, and they're pretty easy to land on if you need to in a last minute situation. Like I was mentioning earlier, the Link 15 NATO communication system that the F-15s have, most of the F-15s have this, at least all of ours do. And they're able to coordinate what they need to coordinate regardless of which specific piece of equipment's been knocked out. And there's also the low earth orbit satellite communication system that's up there,

• 55:19Speaker 03

  which is like a mesh network, which is a pretty fascinating concept, that even if some of the ground communication systems are gone, it's absolutely redundant to the point where that pilot doesn't even realize that they've switched over to a different air system instead of the ground system.

• 55:32Speaker 02

  Quick question, because I was talking about it with Jack yesterday. Obviously for like ballistic missiles, we're using Patriots to knock them out, right? For Shahed drones, are they just using C-RAM? So like they have to get close for us to knock them out? Or I guess fighters too?

• 55:46Speaker 03

  They've got some counter UAS systems on the ground that are able to work with jamming and some other things as well. The other important component that a lot, not a lot of people have spoken about, but in the space domain, there's a lot of anti-satellite things we can do to interfere with the, with the GPS that those drones use. Some of those drones have pre-programmed coordinates in it, which makes it unnecessary to use the GPS part of it. But there are also some technologies we can use to actually take the drones over and use them. The question is, does the US want to use those technologies? Because if we do, we're going to reveal to them how they work. So there's that threshold of do we need to do this yet? And I think some of those more advanced cyber and offensive capabilities have not been used yet because they're probably not necessary. You can use a C RAM for a while. You can use some integrated air defense for a while.

• 56:31Speaker 03

  Then when things get a little bit hairy, if they even do, you could perhaps use a smaller offensive tool, maybe a larger offensive tool if necessary. The Russians were doing this quite a bit in Syria where they were actually using satellite jamming to jam a lot of our communication equipment in Southeast Syria. They didn't ever talk about it and we didn't ever talk about it either. But it was pretty effective to the point where we couldn't communicate with troops over the horizon.

• 56:54Speaker 02

  Also, I liked, I did see where the Lucas, like the low costs, you know, it's like a Shahid clone essentially. It's like, we can't make our own. We have to clone a Shahid drone. Like, are they that good? I guess, I mean, I mean, I guess at this point they're ubiquitous. Like you find them everywhere. So.

• 57:14Speaker 02

  Yeah, incredible stuff, scary stuff, frankly. And if you guys, if the listeners or viewers don't know, I'm completely against it.

• 57:24Speaker 02

  Anything else? Hit me with it. Let's go. Jack, what do you got? I know you're working on something. What's up?

• 57:30Jack Murphy?

  No, I'm not, not on Iran. Um, no, I don't know that I have much more that people haven't heard already.

• 57:40Jack Murphy?

  I just, you know, I guess add that, you know, we are living in different times. We're not in Kansas anymore. Um, the, the geopolitical arena is changing. The domestic political arena is changing. It's actually changing so fast that I haven't heard anyone, and, and I'm not holding myself up that I do this. I haven't heard anyone who can articulate or grasp exactly how quickly and how profoundly things have changed, um, both in the United States and abroad. But you are seeing a sort of recalibration of global order taking place before our eyes. And I think we're at the beginning of that process rather than the end.

• 58:21Speaker 03

  And actually, Jack, that's a really good point because this world order that we know was created by the United States because we won World War II. It's like we set up this entire system that is perfectly beneficial to just the United States. And in the past year and a half, we've been dismantling it rapidly, brick by brick on a daily basis, which is crazy because it's like this. This system is the most ideal system for the United States. Any other alternative is a lose situation for the US for just for the economy. Forget defense and everything else.

• 58:52Speaker 02

  We're dismantling it ourselves.

• 58:55Speaker 03

  Right.

• 58:55Speaker 02

  Yeah, tell me how that makes sense. 4D chess being played. It's just incredible stuff. Smartest guys in the room.

• 59:02Speaker 03

  Somebody with a very good brain knows how to fix it.

• 59:06Speaker 02

  Another interesting thing, just to cap off, like there's a Chinese ship in the Gulf. Uh, that's just been there for like months, right? And I guess it's like a it's monitoring everything and stuff like that. So I'm sure like they're probably, you know, soaking in every type of information, every information they can probably get their hands on. Also, there were some rumors talking about China. There are some rumors that like a couple dozen cargo planes from China headed into Iran. And as they were heading into Iran, they turned their transponders off.

• 59:39Speaker 02

  What could that is that like replenishment of like of of munitions? Or like, what could that possibly be if it's true, which probably is?

• 59:47Speaker 03

  It could be the HY series missiles that they were promised that Iran purchased from China. Could be.

• 59:54Speaker 02

  Those are the hypersonic?

• 59:56Speaker 03

  They're claimed to be hypersonic.

• 59:57Speaker 02

  Right.

• 59:58Speaker 03

  We haven't yet to see them actually be hypersonic.

• 1:00:00Jack Murphy?

  Do you think there at any point at any juncture in all of this that you could see foresee Russia or China trying to intervene in Iran? The way that Russia did in Syria?

• 1:00:13Speaker 03

  I think with the current conditions, no.

• 1:00:15Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:00:15Speaker 03

  But I think if there was an economic button, perhaps, especially on the China side, if there was a real squeeze on oil, which there I don't think there is in the foreseeable month that this is supposed to last. I don't think China would, but if there was that situation where they were out of necessity, trying to force something, I think they'd probably try diplomatic push much more strongly than a physical push.

• 1:00:35Speaker 02

  Said it all. Anything else? What's, what do we need to look at over the next few days like that's really gonna like put your, make your spider senses go off. John, you go first, and then I want Jay and I want Jack.

• 1:00:47Speaker 03

  I would listen to what Netanyahu is saying, because I think the most realistic understanding of how this conflict is shaping up is Netanyahu's plan. And I think what the US government is saying is not as reliable. He may not be saying the truth, but I think it's probably closer to what will actually go on than what the West outside of Israel is saying.

• 1:01:10Speaker 02

  Jay?

• 1:01:11Speaker 05

  Yeah, I was actually gonna say that we need to take, I think we here in the US need to take what is said by Netanyahu and juxtapose that against what our own government is saying. Somewhere in the middle is the truth. And I also believe, you know, believe what your eyes are showing you and not necessarily what you're, you know, what you're hearing, especially if you have that bias. Because, you know, it's, it's, it's already been proven, like Jack was saying, you know, they're, they're, we're being lied to or told certain things when your, your actual brain tells you that's not true,

• 1:01:53Speaker 05

  but your heart, you know, because of bias is telling you, well, if they're saying it's gotta be true because it's my side. So, you know, believe what your eyes are telling you.

• 1:02:02Speaker 03

  Yeah, I'll say too, like, if you read Al Jazeera, then you should read Fox News. And if you read Fox News, you should read Al Jazeera and like force yourself into the other bucket that you like will not ever read. You don't have to believe what you see, but it's helpful to understand like the bigger world of what's being said. What's the narrative here?

• 1:02:19Speaker 05

  That was what a mentor of mine at the agency said. He said, if you, if you see breaking news on CNN, turn on Fox News and listen to what they're saying about the exact same thing, then go to BBC, then everybody else, and then form your, your opinion from there.

• 1:02:37Speaker 02

  Jackalope?

• 1:02:39Jack Murphy?

  I mean, what I'm watching for, quite frankly, since there hasn't been any sort of defined strategic goal for this operation, there, there isn't any clear achievable end state that we're fighting for. What I'm looking for is, you know, the president gets bored with this conflict. He could pull out of it right now and claim victory because he killed the Ayatollah. He can say, I did all of these great things. Look how great I am and then pull out before his administration gets dragged into a prolonged quagmire, which is something that they've clearly said they want to avoid. So I'm just kind of waiting for the president to just get bored with this thing and want to go back to building his ballroom.

• 1:03:24Speaker 02

  Yeah, but you didn't see that press conference he did the other? No, it wasn't a press conference, it was a Medal of Honor ceremony.

• 1:03:29Speaker 03

  He said he won't get bored.

• 1:03:30Speaker 02

  He won't get bored and then literally like started talking about.

• 1:03:32Jack Murphy?

  About the drapes?

• 1:03:33Speaker 02

  Yeah, he saw Bumblebee and got distracted.

• 1:03:37Jack Murphy?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 1:03:39Speaker 02

  I hope you're right because honestly, he could have done that, right? Like the way, where the negotiations were before the strikes, he could have been like, this is a better plan by a million against the JCPOA. I beat Barack Hussein Obama. You know what I mean? Like, I've done it. I've done it better than he would ever have done it. And he would have been right, right? If he got that deal. You know, there's just, I, I, I hope you're right. He gets bored and like, I don't know, invades Cuba or something.

• 1:04:08Speaker 05

  I think the problem with that is though, the Iranian people are going to pay for this no matter what. We can say we're bored, we're taking our bone, we're going home. And then the whatever, you know, government is left is going to come down on the Iranian people because they're not, they can't hit us. So they're going to smack the Iranian people.

• 1:04:27Speaker 03

  That's my thing. Like if you make a promise that you're going to help somebody, you got to help them. You can't like, maybe it wasn't good to do the war in the first place, but if you made that promise now, you can't go back on it. You have to continue forward.

• 1:04:37Jack Murphy?

  That's why I think it's immoral and unethical to launch an air campaign without having a, you know, some sort of unconventional warfare program that's active on the ground to actually affect political change.

• 1:04:54Speaker 03

  Yeah, I agree.

• 1:04:55Speaker 05

  A lot of people who are probably gonna say in the comments, well, we do have that. We just don't talk about it. We can't talk about it. Well, it doesn't matter if we don't talk about it. If we keep saying publicly, we're not gonna put troops on the ground. This is not about regime saying, because again, the Iranian people are listening. And whatever we're doing behind the scenes doesn't mean shit to them if they think we're not gonna help. Because when we're ready for them to rise up, they're not going to be, and it's gonna go to hell.

• 1:05:25Speaker 02

  Also, like, question, like, um, let's say we did try and do what we did in Afghanistan. And I guess early 2003 with Iraq, with the Kurds and stuff like that, with CIA and SF. You know, the buy with and through stuff. How do they, how do they fight the IRGC, which is a, you know, a established fighting force in a relatively modern army. Without our, like, uh, our close air support or, you know, our fire support or how they even think to survive that.

• 1:06:00Speaker 03

  Yeah, especially with the, the amount of drones the regime has. They can divert some of those drones to use against those rebellious forces.

• 1:06:10Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's gonna be a crazy few weeks.

• 1:06:14Speaker 02

  I wish there was something good to fucking report on, guys. Honestly, I'm fucking done with this. You know what I mean? Oh, never. We never fucking do it. That's the thing. It's like, I never feel like, oh, you know what? This is actually going in the right direction at the end of a show like this.

• 1:06:30Speaker 02

  Jack Murphy, The High Side, incredible outlet with Sean Naylor, who literally wrote the book on JSOC. Jack's new book is coming out in June, The Most Dangerous Man. That link is in the description to preorder it. Jason Lyons, links are down in the description. Jonathan Hackett, Iran, Shadow Weapons, and The Theory of a Regular War. Both books are down in the description. We were, John, you were supposed to come here, we were supposed to talk about how the IRGC lo- lo- lo- lures money, right? Like, that's what the original plan was? Yeah, that was the original plan, but then we got like-

• 1:06:59Speaker 03

  Then there was this little war that started.

• 1:07:01Speaker 02

  Yeah, we got a decades worth of news and a fuck in three days.

• 1:07:06Speaker 02

  And you can go to patreon.com/the team house and help support the show. You get both team house episodes and eyes on episodes. If you're interested in Jonathan and Jason's story, we have episodes with them on the team house. So check those out. And yeah, what else do you get? You get free ad free episodes and you get them early as well. So and you help support the show. Guys, a pleasure as always. Anything else you guys, you guys want to say anything? How great of a host I am? No, you don't want to do that? Have lunch with AOC yet? Wish I wish she doesn't return my calls. Alright, guys. Thank you.

• 1:07:45Jack Murphy?

  Alright, take care guys. Good talking to you.

• 1:07:47Speaker 02

  Take care, gents.

• 1:07:50Jack Murphy?

  I want to tell all of you today about a new newsletter that we're launching that encompasses both the team house podcast, the eyes on podcast, and the high side news outlet, which I run with Sean Naylor. The newsletter is going to be once a week. It's going to come into your inbox and you're going to get the most current podcasts on eyes on in the team house and whatever's topical or current on the high side. So it's another way for us to get the information out to you as social media algorithms are pretty iffy and you never really know what you're going to get. So this is a once a week email. It'll slide into your inbox and it will have, you know, the greatest hits of that week.

• 1:08:30Speaker 02

  It's really good. Checking it out.

• 1:08:34Jack Murphy?

  The website for it is team house podcast dot kit.com slash join team house podcast dot kit.com slash join. Go there and you enter into your email list or you enter your email into the little thing on the website and you're good to go. And that'll be it. So we really appreciate your support and hope you'll consider signing up.

• 1:08:59Jack Murphy?

  The link will also be down in the description if you're looking for it there. And that's teamhousepodcast.kit.

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  paid for by Genentech and Novartis.

• 1:22:28Speaker 08

  ChatGPT for teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down. Rather than giving teens the answer, study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options, like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.comPARENTS to learn more.

• 1:22:55Speaker 09

  Cash flow crunch? OnDeck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds, up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:23:31Speaker 06

  She's been thinking about the sleepover all week, but I think about her food allergies all the time. Fortunately, her doctor prescribed Zolair, omalizumab. It's proven to significantly reduce allergic reactions if a food allergy accident happens.

• 1:23:45Speaker 07

  Zolair 150mg is a prescription medication used to treat food allergy in people one year of age and older to reduce allergic reactions due to accidental exposure to one or more foods. While taking Zolair, you should continue to avoid all foods to which you are allergic. Don't use if you are allergic to Zolair. Zolair may cause a severe, life-threatening allergic reaction called anaphylaxis. Tell your doctor if you ever had anaphylaxis. Get help right away if you have trouble breathing or if you have swelling of your throat or tongue. Zolair should not be used for the emergency treatment of allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis. Zolair is for maintenance use to reduce allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis, while avoiding food allergens. Serious side effects such as cancer, fever, muscle aches and rash, parasitic infection, or heart and circulation problems have been reported. Please see zolair.com for full prescribing information. Ask an allergist about Zolair. This is an advertisement for Zolair

• 1:24:29Speaker 07

  paid for by Genentech and Novartis.

• 1:24:31Speaker 08

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down. Rather than giving teens the answer, study mode helps teens work through problems and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default and parental controls offer families additional options like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.comPARENTS to learn more.

• 1:24:59Speaker 01

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of 5-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:25:27Speaker 06

  She's been thinking about this sleepover all week, but I think about her food allergies all the time. Fortunately, her doctor prescribed Zolair, omalizumab. It's proven to significantly reduce allergic reactions if a food allergy accident happens.

• 1:25:40Speaker 07

  Zolair 150mg is a prescription medication used to treat food allergy in people one year of age and older to reduce allergic reactions due to accidental exposure to one or more foods. While taking Zolair, you should continue to avoid all foods to which you are allergic. Don't use if you are allergic to Zolair. Zolair may cause a severe, life-threatening allergic reaction called anaphylaxis. Tell your doctor if you ever had anaphylaxis. Get help right away if you have trouble breathing or if you have swelling of your throat or tongue. Zolair should not be used for the emergency treatment of allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis. Zolair is for maintenance use to reduce allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis, while avoiding food allergens. Serious side effects such as cancer, fever, muscle aches and rash, parasitic infection, or heart and circulation problems have been reported. Please see zolair.com for full prescribing information. Ask an allergist about Zolair. This is an advertisement for Zolair,

• 1:26:24Speaker 07

  paid for by Genentech and Novartis.

• 1:26:27Speaker 08

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down, rather than giving teens the answer. Study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options, like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.comPARENTS to learn more.

• 1:26:54Speaker 01

  Cash Flow Crunch, OnDeck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds, up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.