All-In's Best Ideas Pitch Competition: 4 Investors Present Their Top Trades Live

(0:00) Chamath explains the Best Ideas format (2:31) Suvretta Capital Management's Aaron Cowen pitches MGM Resorts (13:07) Bornite Capital's Dan Dreyfus pitches Talen Energy (27:19) EcoR1 Capital's Oleg Nodelman pitches Aktis Oncology (40:20) Multicoin Capital's Kyle Samani pitches GEODNET (54:50) The Besties recap the pitches and announce winners Thanks to our partners for making this possible! EY - EY helps private equity firms turn market insight into action, navigating complexity and unlocking new paths to growth and long-term value. https://www.ey.com/en_us/industries/private-equity? WT.mc_id=3501315&AA.tsrc=sponsorship https://www.ey.com/en_us/industries/private-equity? WT.mc_id=3501315&AA.tsrc=sponsorship NYSE - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE. https://www.nyse.com Plaud - Never miss a moment. Plaud, our official wearable AI note-taking partner at All-In Liquidity Summit, captured every insight. https://www.plaud.ai Follow Aaron: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aaron-cowen-0a44a450 Follow Dan: https://x.com/dreyfd https://www.linkedin.com/in/daniel-dreyfus-b65554209 Follow Oleg: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oleg-nodelman-375131 Follow Kyle: https://x.com/KyleSamani https://www.linkedin.com/in/kylesamani Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Maybe you could tell us a little bit about how you selected our presenters and your vision for this. I mean, for any of you guys who've been involved in Ira Sone, this is a gentleman that passed away from cancer far too young. And his family created this thing called the Sone Foundation, and they would host this event. And it started in Lincoln Center. And they would ask these managers. And so at the time, I was like a young venture investor. And I got this invite, and I showed up in New York at Lincoln Center in 2015. And I said, "Amazon's going to be a trillion-dollar company." And I was laughed out of the room. David Einhorn, who's a friend of mine, but who is totally wrong, said, "I know trillion-dollar companies. This is not a trillion-dollar company." Wrong.

• 0:43Chamath Palihapitiya?

  It turned out to be a great bet. I went back. I did Tesla in 2016. We picked the converts. And then in 2017, I was like, "All right, this is my, this is, this is it. This is my magnum opus." And I said, "AI is the future." And then I picked Box. I was like, "If I had just picked Nvidia, I would have been a..." A legend. A legend, and I could have retired. Well, anyway, so we wanted to recreate Ira Sone and start to get these great managers who are making great picks, making a ton of money for their LPs. They don't get the distribution. And so it's just a chance to like, get to know some of these names. You don't have to see them on CNBC. You'll see them here more and more often. And we can just get to opine. Roll the video. Yeah.

• 1:26Jason Calacanis?

  Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Best Ideas Pitch. Let's meet our contestants.

• 1:35Speaker 02

  Anyone should be able to trade any asset, anywhere in the world, anytime, 24/7, with just an internet connection and a phone in their pocket. We're building a new financial system from the ground up here.

• 1:45Speaker 03

  People are going to want to own equities, and it's going to be fun the next couple of years. Companies are going to innovate and create products and applications. And that's where hopefully long-short managers like us can make a boatload of money.

• 1:57Speaker 04

  My fund, EcoR1 Capital, which is based in San Francisco, thinks of investing in biotech in a slightly different way. We're looking for unfollowed, unloved, misunderstood biotech companies. It's an amazing moment in time for those types of companies.

• 2:08Speaker 05

  There's been a structural and permanent perception shift where both sides of the aisle are going to be leaning into nuclear in a big way. I'm massively optimistic. You know, all of this leads me to just be maximum risk on.

• 2:29Speaker 03

  Thanks to Vestes for having me and this is obviously a fabulous event you guys put on. I'm happy to be here. For those of you who don't know me, I run a $4 billion firm in New York called Suvretta Capital. Before founding my firm, I ran the equities business for George Soros. I was then CIO for Steve Cohen and I've been doing hedge funds now for 29 years. So I'm definitely on the older edge of my peer group. So I was thinking about, you know, I run a generalist fund and, you know, we own a bunch of tech stocks, but, you know, given this audience here, for me to pitch a tech stock would be absolutely completely stupid. So I was thinking about what else and, you know, obviously the theme of this

• 3:11Speaker 03

  conference besides tech is poker. So I'm going to pitch to you MGM. Now, most of you know MGM as you would think about it as the Vegas company. They own 13 properties in Vegas. They're one, them and Caesars are the two largest owners of casino assets in Vegas. Now, if you notice, the other day Caesars got taken out. And so we think Vegas is actually starting to improve. But I'm not here to pitch MGM because of Vegas. What I'm going to tell you is there's a couple of things we noticed. One is, this company's been very

• 3:54Speaker 03

  aggressively been, stock's been aggressively acquired by Barry Diller lately. Barry now owns 26% of the company. Now, I put this presentation together two weeks ago. Yesterday, he actually bid for the company. Okay, so when I put the presentation together, the stock was about $37. It's now high 40s. He bid $48. Okay? I would not sell my shares to him for a second.

• 4:19Chamath Palihapitiya?

  When did we get this presentation? Did we get it early enough to dress up?

• 4:23Speaker 03

  I would not sell his, I would not sell my stock to him for a second. And the reason is also, besides him buying the stock, the company's also been buying the stock. Rarely have I ever seen a company in six years buy half their float back. So you have Barry Diller, who's the legend aggressively buying the stock and it's also now 80% of his NAV. Okay, so you, most people think of Barry Diller as the ABC producer. He did IAC, which owned assets like Expedia. And now he's a casino guy. What is going on here? So we spent a lot of time asking ourselves why.

• 5:05Speaker 03

  And why is MGM has two hidden assets. Okay, the first one is, and this is sort of our, the punchline of what we think the stock is worth. So you add the Vegas assets plus China, you get about low 60s. So from $48 or 37 when I started this, great return. What is, they, what they have now is a license to open a casino in Osaka, Japan. Japan, a couple of years ago, went through a whole referendum around the country. They have prefectures, the prefectures voted. The only one that decided to own, open a casino is Osaka.

• 5:50Speaker 03

  Now Osaka is, and this is what the asset's gonna look like. It's gonna open in 2030. If you go to the company's slide presentations, they sort of mention this, but they're not really talking about it. Japan, just for you people, sorry, I don't know, this is very slow. Japan actually has a reasonably large gambling market. They have pachinko parlors and they have horses. That's about a $40 billion market. If you look at the market in Macau, that's 30 billion. And if you look at Vegas, it's only $10 billion. So this could be a massive opportunity. You know, we're estimating they'll do about $2 billion of EBITDA. They own 40% of the property. They also get a management fee for this.

• 6:35Speaker 03

  If you also look at where Osaka is located, it's a great, you know, so the Japanese like to gamble, but the Chinese really gamble. Okay? So if you look at where it is from Shanghai, it's shorter than Macau and Singapore, which are the two big gaming options in Asia. And from Beijing, about the same distance as Macau, and obviously much shorter than going to Singapore. So if you want to go gambling for a weekend and you live in Shanghai, you live in Beijing, Osaka is great. It's also a first world nation. And if you think about it as an investor, where would you want to have your money? Look, Macau has issues. It's a low multiple business. This is Japan, it's a first world country.

• 7:16Speaker 03

  So we think Barry Diller understands gambling, he understands casinos, but what he's really doing is now trying to pick off the company to get the Japanese opportunity, which we think is worth more than double the stock. The final option, and I'm keeping this simple, what I love about this pitch is it's really simple, it's not that hard to do the math. MGM is built, they're branding, they're building a property in Dubai, okay? Now, it's a grand complex, it has an Aria, it has an MGM, and it has a Bellagio. Gambling is illegal in Dubai right now, okay?

• 7:56Speaker 03

  But they have snuck in this building 300,000 square feet of space. Well, one day, if Dubai decides to legalize gambling, guess where it's going? Right there. Next year, sorry, two years from now, Wynn is going to open a casino in a place called Al Marjan, which is 45 minutes away from Dubai. Now, any of us who want to go gambling in Dubai, we, Al Marjan's a bit of a pain they ask to get to, we're going to want to go here. So we think there's a chance that, especially when Wynn opens, also, look, there's a possibility

• 8:34Speaker 03

  of the war, Dubai wants to reestablish themselves, that they open a casino in Dubai. And, you know, what that would be worth, so when you take the Vegas assets, which we think are worth about 60, when you take Japan, which we think is worth about 50 bucks, if Dubai happens, that's worth another 40 or 50 dollars. So we think the stock is a triple. Remember Barry's bidding for the company, okay? He is not a strategic buyer. He is a financial buyer and he's doing it to get rich. So therefore, I think this company is now in play. I don't know how it's all gonna play out. But if you own shares, don't tender them. And the risk reward is incredible right now.

• 9:18Speaker 03

  Because, you know, I'm telling you, I think the stock could be easily worth over 100. Could be worth 150. And now you have Barry Diller, who is a, has a firm bid, owns 26% of the company. Basically at the same price. So I think this is a cool idea.

• 9:33Jason Calacanis?

  Well done.

• 9:36Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, anybody, let's do two questions. And yeah, we'll put, I'll give you both questions at the same time for efficiency.

• 9:43David Friedberg?

  How much have you looked at like the monetization of the assets outside of gambling? I had heard from someone that Barry Diller was spending a lot of time trying to reinvent the entertainment piece of the properties. He was active on the board. And they were trying to identify that the entertainment properties way, the entertainment value is way under monetized. And they could be making a lot more per.

• 10:03Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, don't answer yet, that's question one.

• 10:05Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And then question two is how, when you expand internationally, do you scale customer credit? Because that tends to be the thing that drives, you know, people to come back and.

• 10:16Speaker 03

  Well, obviously MGM, let me start with your question first. MGM has a massive database of customers, right? So, you know, I assume the Vegas properties have guys that come from China. They come from Japan. They'll use that database to do it. They also have a loyalty program. I unfortunately made a bad investment in a company called Rio, the Rio, which was in Vegas. Which we bought when they separate, when Caesars merged with El Dorado. They had to shed an asset. That was, that was the Rio. We, I did an investment with a couple of friends and we were buying the thing at $200 per square foot. The thing we forgot was when you separated from Caesars, you lost the loyalty program. And that ended up being a pretty bad investment.

• 10:58Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And I have two quick questions from the audience.

• 11:00Speaker 03

  Wait, wait, I gotta ask Greg Cow's question.

• 11:02Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Hold on, question, and then from the audience.

• 11:04Speaker 03

  Let me get his first.

• 11:04David Friedberg?

  Yeah, the entertainment question.

• 11:06Speaker 03

  I don't know the answer to that. I don't know the answer to that. If it's, if he can make them better, it will help. But as I'm saying, this is not really a Vegas play. This is an Asian casino play that.

• 11:20Speaker 03

  And if you look at the presentations, which is really cool, they are not, they barely mention it. So what, one of the things we happen beside, we were hoping in one of the cat, so, look, I worked at SAC, and one of the things we focus on is catalyst path. So what was the catalyst path? The catalyst path was they would have an investor day, blah, blah, blah. Barry just showed his cards. So, um, but, you know.

• 11:43Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Aaron, two questions. Caesars left Dubai waiting for a license. Why would this be different for MGM? That's question one. And then question two is, the Osaka casino was approved in 2023. Why was the market ignoring this hidden asset until the bid?

• 12:00Speaker 03

  Sure. Let me answer this stack. So what's also cool about this idea was, so I've been doing this for 29 years. Um, Wynn, um, they opened Macau. So Wynn started as a Vegas property, then opened Macau. The market started caring about it about three years before it opened. So that the answer is, they should care about it. The reality is it's tends to be about three years before it opens. Well, we're almost in that timeframe, which is why we think it's opportunistically the right period of time. Um, I, you know, regarding the question with Caesars, look, this is an option. As I told you, somebody built this project for them. They are running it for them. And they were intelligent enough to leave 300,000

• 12:45Speaker 03

  square feet of empty space in case they get a casino. Well, if that happens, great. If it doesn't, you know, you're still going to double it more than double your money. So, you know, if, if it happens, you triple your money.

• 12:56Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Re-option, you're saying?

• 12:58Speaker 03

  It's a re-option.

• 12:58Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Well done. A round of applause.

• 13:00Speaker 03

  Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.

• 13:02Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Nicely done, Aaron. Next up, Daniel.

• 13:06Speaker 05

  Long time no see. So today we're doing talent energy. Uh, but first.

• 13:14Speaker 05

  The anatomy of a power cycle.

• 13:19Speaker 05

  So, a power cycle typically goes like this. In normal times, power demand grows about GDP. So if GDP grows 2%, power demand grows 2. If GDP grows 3, power demand goes 3. And there's moments in time where we get technological breakthroughs. And a lot of those technological breakthroughs are very power-intensive. So power demand spikes. And once everybody adopts that technology, it trends back down to its on-algorithm GDP growth. And then you go through the efficiencies phase, where we say, "Let's try to conserve and figure out ways to consume less power." And then the cycle starts all over again.

• 14:03Speaker 05

  So, you know, in history, the big technological boom that sent power demand skyrocketing was appliances and air conditioning. Everybody had to get their kettles and the air con. Then, in the 70s and 80s and 90s, demand normalized again. But then the 2000s were all about efficiencies. You know, we had like LED lighting, smart HVAC, tinted windows, smart electronics. And at the same time, as I said earlier, we were like, you know, ripping down all our power-hungry infrastructure, like aluminum smelters and moving over China. So we had two decades of effectively no power demand. And now we're just coming out of it and starting a technological cycle again, where power demand is gonna really start to explode

• 14:46Speaker 05

  from these sort of high 2% numbers you're seeing on the screen. Now, I wanna say something right now that is incredibly important.

• 14:57Speaker 05

  We do not need AI demand to keep the power markets incredibly tight for the next 20 years.

• 15:10Speaker 05

  AI demand just turbocharges. That's all it does. And it creates shortages. So just remember that. Early in my career, I was on a panel with Sam Zell. Interestingly, it was a panel on opportunities in Mongolia. I was looking at a copper mine and he was looking at real estate. There was one thing he said that stuck with me for the rest of my career is he said, "If you can buy an asset, a hard asset, at below replacement cost for an asset that's going to be needed in the future, where we're going to need to build new capacity of that asset, then you buy that asset at a discount to replacement cost, you hold it, and you sell it at a big premium to replacement cost when the market wakes up."

• 15:55Speaker 05

  That's exactly what we did with Equity Office Properties, sold it at the peak of the market, but bought it at a discount to replacement value. Talen Energy is a power producer. They have 2 gigawatts of nuclear power and they've got 6 gigawatts of natural gas baseload power. Today, in the stock market, as a good speculation, you could purchase this company at a $25 billion enterprise value. The replacement cost is $45 billion. And because they've got debt, it means that the equity value, just to get to replacement cost, is more than a double from where it's trading today. And if you follow Sam's playbook, then we ultimately end this cycle at a big premium to replacement value.

• 16:39Speaker 05

  So when I see this, I say, "The plan for America on the power side has to be this: Make America great again, copy China." If you look at what China did over the last 20 years, we started out this cycle with having 2X the power generation that China had. Fast forward to today, China has 3 times the power generation capacity that we have. Now... If you believe that artificial intelligence is going to be responsible for scientific breakthroughs, you either have it or you don't have the scientific breakthroughs. If you believe that artificial intelligence is going to drive robotics, you either have it or you don't have that productivity from the robots.

• 17:22Speaker 05

  If you believe that artificial intelligence is going to be helpful for national security and military affairs, then you either have it or you're dead. And so, this is an absolutely mandatory build-out that we have to do. Otherwise, we're going to fall behind. Because at the end of the day, what is a data center? You know, in my world, in the commodities world, I look at the data center as the exact same thing as a refinery. In a traditional hydrocarbon refinery, you put oil in, crude oil in, you refine it into jet fuel or gasoline for your car. With a data center, you put electricity in, and on the other end, instead of gasoline or jet fuel, it comes photons or tokens or intelligence, whatever you want to call it, but it's the same thing.

• 18:07Speaker 05

  Big capital-intensive asset, $50 billion per gigawatt. And power, just like electricity, just like oil, is the input to that refinery. So here's Jensen, and he was just recently quoted that we need a thousand times more power than we currently have. Now, if that's remotely true, we need every single source of power that you can imagine. We need hundreds of gigawatts of nuclear, we need solar, we need orbital, we need it all. If this is even remotely true. But the challenge, as we spoke about before, is the supply chain, right? All of these, you know, a data center competes for the same supply chain

• 18:50Speaker 05

  of the critical minerals that space launches and orbital data centers do. Power plants need all the same nickel super alloys that it takes to launch rockets, and the silver that goes into these photovoltaic cells and so. And so, there's going to be shortages of everything and delays everywhere. And my point here is we are just going to need every solution that we can throw at this for the foreseeable future.

• 19:18Speaker 05

  So here's a little region in the US called the PJM, Pennsylvania, Jersey, Maryland. This is a forecast from the grid operator where they say that over the next 10 years, we're going to need 106 gigawatts of new power in the PJM in just one little area of the US. Now, in 10 years, in geological time, that's like tomorrow morning, right? We're all so used to internet time, you press a button and you get your food delivered to you, or your car picks you up in two seconds. You know, building infrastructure happens in geological time. 10 years to build out 106 gigawatts is literally a nanosecond from now. And, you know, you see that thermal coal retirements? We ain't retiring those coal plants because there's no world where we're going to be building 100 gigawatts in 10 years.

• 20:01Speaker 05

  That's the size of what Japan consumes today for one little part of the US. And, you know, what I'll say is, those that understand the supply chain and what goes into building all this, everybody's in panic mode because we know that we don't have the raw materials to meet this level of demand that's coming our way. So that's going to keep existing capacity and power prices very tight. Now, the data centers and the hyperscalers are in a panic. They're trying everything they can to source as much power as they can under long-term PPAs, Power Purchase Price Agreements, at fixed prices for 20 years.

• 20:41Speaker 05

  There's a famous example, you know, I thought Microsoft was a green company, but they went and convinced Constellation Energy, which is a company that owns the Three Mile Island nuclear reactor, you know, the one that melted down and created, you know, the nuclear meltdown that gave nuclear a bad name for 30 years? It was Microsoft that told them they needed to start it up, and in order to incentivize, to stimulate their hand-to-wallet reflex to start this thing up, they said, "Power prices today are $50 a megawatt hour. We'll pay you $100 a year for 20 years, minimum price for you guys to start this up." And so here we have it, Three Mile Island brought to you by Microsoft Azure.

• 21:23Speaker 05

  So, you know, it's getting harder to do these deals because the regulators are saying, "Wait a minute, if you're taking all this power off the grid for your data center, how are we going to heat the homes of our customers?" And so, you know, we're getting ourselves... Into the moment of what I call crunch time. So just to finish up, here are the numbers on Talon. The stock today is sort of in the high 300s. If they just do absolutely nothing, just absolutely nothing, just sit there and run the business, let their Amazon data center contract roll up. These guys will be generating $50 a share of free cash flow per year. Again, the stock is in the high 300s. So it's about seven times free cash flow.

• 22:08Speaker 05

  Good infrastructure assets in the U.S. Traded about 15 times. So that's pretty good. You get a double for basically management just sitting around and doing nothing. But if they continue to figure out ways to sign contracts with data centers at premium prices, or if power prices go up. I mean, the amazing thing right now is in the PJM where these guys operate, the power price is still too low to stimulate new capacity. The math still doesn't work, which is really mind boggling. So if power prices go up a bit, they do more deals, you get to $70 a share of recurring annual free cash flow, put a 15 multiple on that, that's 1,050. But then if they get into building power plants, right? And right now, the regulator is telling these companies to go sit in a room, power producer,

• 22:53Speaker 05

  data center, come in a room, make a deal so that you build power and get a good return on it, and the data center gets their power, gets a good return on it. And Talon is in a pole position to be able to do this. If they just build like 4 gigawatts of the 100 gigawatts that we need, you could get up to, you know, over $100 a share of free cash flow. The stock's in the high 300s today. So go and buy the shares. It's a good speculation and we can chat.

• 23:18Jason Calacanis?

  All right, not financial advice. Gavin, go.

• 23:21Speaker 07

  I'm just very curious, like, how do you think about regulatory risks here? Nobody likes their electricity prices going up. AI is an increasingly political issue. Just...

• 23:33Speaker 07

  Like, how do you think about that risk?

• 23:34Speaker 05

  We need AI and we need to figure this out. And so, there's different ways to skin a cat here, right? My personal view is during peak hours, right? If you go drive down a highway at 4:00 in the morning, you know, you would sit there and say, "Why do we have all this highway capacity? This is crazy." But then you go on that same highway at rush hour, you're like, "Oh, we don't have enough highway capacity. There's not enough lanes." Power's the same thing. There's only a few hours a day where you really stress the system. And so, I think the working solution to get around this regulatory issue is you do the PPAs with the data centers. You force the data centers to throw a ton of battery behind it and some peakers just to get through that really intense period. And then, that's a good Band-Aid solution until we build more power.

• 24:19Speaker 05

  So, there's ways to do this. Human ingenuity is going to win here. We're going to get our data centers and consumer power bills are going to be, I think, relatively under control. They're going to go up, but they're going to be under control.

• 24:29Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Okay, Dan, I have three questions from the audience, really good ones. Number one, does your thesis actually need behind-the-meter co-location to clear? Or is it just a bet that clean, firm base load is scarce enough that it doesn't matter whether power flows in front of or behind the meter?

• 24:46Speaker 05

  It's the latter, and that's why I gave three scenarios, right? The $50 a share of earnings per share, again, a high $300 stock, right? $50 a share of earnings, nothing has to happen. You just sit, right? And then you double your money. Now, if you get more behind the meter or even front of the meter, that's how you get up to that $70 a share of earnings from 50. And then, if you get up to the 70 but start building new capacity, then you get to the $100 plus.

• 25:11Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Okay, question two from Brad. How do you think about competition for power from things like fuel cells, gas turbines, aeroderevid turbines, orbital compute, and other sort of IPPs, independent power producers?

• 25:23Speaker 05

  We need all of it. We need all of it. We, you know... Fuel cells and the Caterpillar solar turbines, these are fantastic bridge solutions. But the cost to run these things, the LCOE is like through the roof. But you know, look, to build a $50 billion data center, you don't want it to sit idle for three years waiting for your base load CCGT. So you do whatever it takes. You don't give a crap what you pay for that bridge solution. And so we're finding ways through fuel cells, through Caterpillar solar turbines, hopefully through orbital data centers where we can alleviate this because I want AI to happen in a really big way and we're going to need all the above.

• 25:59Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Okay, question three. By the way, great questions, guys. Thank you for these. What is the right terminal multiple for Talend if the business mix shifts from merchant IPP to contracted infrastructure?

• 26:11Speaker 05

  Fabulous question.

• 26:13Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And the addendum here, and what percentage of EBITDA needs to be contracted before the market should re-rate it?

• 26:20Speaker 05

  So that's a great question. And I only had six minutes to do this and I think I blew through my time. So I couldn't get into this kind of detail, but it's something I would have really wanted to get into. So whoever asked that, thank you. I just use the 15 multiple because it's sort of a blended multiple between the contracted stuff, which will get a big premium multiple because it's a bond-like cash flow stream and bond-like cash flow streams trade at a small spread to treasuries. And so treasuries, if they're at 5%, should trade at 20 times plus some growth or whatever, plus or minus. The uncontracted stuff, the merchant stuff that has spot market exposure is more volatile, less visible. That should trade at a lower multiple. We can get into the minutia, but just suffice to say, the more contracts, the higher the multiple, the less the lower the multiple. Use 15 times as a good rule of thumb

• 27:05Speaker 05

  and you'll probably get to the right answer, which is what I used.

• 27:07Chamath Palihapitiya?

  That last question from Daniel Scherer, thank you for that. Dan, thank you. That was great.

• 27:12Speaker 05

  Oh, yeah. Great. Thanks.

• 27:18Speaker 04

  My name's Oleg Nodelman. I'm the founder and managing director of Ekor One Capital, a San Francisco-based, value-oriented biotech fund that I started about 13 years ago. Thanks a lot to the besties for having me here. I'm a huge fan of the pod, like I'm sure all of us are, and I know how challenged Science Corner can get. So I wrote this in a way that even David Sacks would appreciate and pay attention to if he were here.

• 27:44Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Well, paradoxically, he's taking a nap, which is what he normally does during Science Corner.

• 27:48Speaker 04

  Exactly.

• 27:51Speaker 04

  Generally speaking, investing in biotech companies is a horrible idea, sandwiched somewhere between movies, wineries, and Sacks. In fact, our sector often feels a lot more like a casino than an actual financial market, and most of the tourists who are investing are playing the slots.

• 28:12Speaker 04

  Of course, at EcoR1, we consider ourselves poker players. In a sector where virtually everyone else is a momentum investor, betting on science, we focus on margin of safety. We're one of the few funds not managed by PhDs or MDs, and that's by design, because we don't want to fall in love with the science. We fall in love with the risk-reward. And like the slide says, we want to monetize other kids' science projects.

• 28:37Speaker 04

  This is my 25th year investing in biotech. I started my career with an 11-year stint at another fund, and launched EcoR1 in 2013, humble beginnings with 13 million. Since inception, we've 10x'd to our investors and annualized at 20%. And today, we have about 2.5 billion under management.

• 28:55Speaker 04

  We're lucky to have long-term partners, many of whom are biotech entrepreneurs themselves, and have been with us since day one. And we recently reopened for the first time in four years.

• 29:08Speaker 04

  Today, I'm going to tell you about a company that's on the front lines of the war on cancer. Military terminology has been used when describing treatments for the disease since the early 70s, when President Nixon signed the National Cancer Act.

• 29:23Speaker 04

  The warfare analogy is actually perfect.

• 29:28Speaker 04

  The warfare analogy is actually perfect for cancer, because both domains are trying to accomplish the exact same thing: Find the enemy, figure out the best weapon to kill them, and have minimal unwanted casualties along the way. First, a quick history of how this war has evolved.

• 29:47Speaker 04

  Early surgical cancer treatment and radiation was akin to a medieval siege. Level the entire castle, burn the surrounding village, and hope the enemy was left somewhere in the rubble. Chemo actually evolved from an accidental observation during World War I, that mustard gas killed rapidly dividing tissue. Tumor cells divide fast, so doctors would flood a patient's body with chemo and hoped it killed the enemy faster than it killed allies. Unfortunately, hair, skin, gut, and marrow cells also divide quickly, and the poison doesn't discriminate. First-generation targeted therapies were next, like a GPS-guided munition. Instead of carpet bombing every dividing cell, you identify the enemy's command and control center and destroy it.

• 30:31Speaker 04

  The problem, like with any weapon, is that the enemy adapts and hides. And in cancer, these are called resistant mutations. Immunotherapy was first introduced to patients a decade ago. With IO, you don't send in your own troops. You recruit local allies, also known as T-cells, and let them do the fighting for you. Spectacular when it works, but highly dependent on the terrain or the tumor microenvironment. This brings me to the reason we're here today. Modern-day radio pharmaceuticals, like a swarm of microdrones, small enough to navigate the bloodstream and find their target by molecular recognition, then detonate a precisely-sized warhead with a blast radius of 100 microns or the diameter of a single cell.

• 31:14Speaker 04

  An autonomous assassination with the force of a bunker buster and minimum collateral damage. The company I'm going to tell you about today is AKTS Oncology. The ticker is A-K-T-S. The company has a billion-dollar market cap, a $500 million enterprise value, and a stockpile of cash which should last them over three years. Long past critical milestones that are coming next year. AKTS was started five years ago, but recently went public with a $300 million IPO that was 18 times oversubscribed, and backstopped with a $100 million order by Eli Lilly, the folks who bring you all the weight-loss drugs. The company has designed a platform that can carry any radioactive payload, is complex enough to go after a variety of targets, and small enough to clear your body with

• 31:59Speaker 04

  minimal side effects. The beautiful thing about this approach is that physicians can verify target engagement in early clinical trials with imaging. This significantly de-risks clinical development because you know the drug is getting to the tumor. Another derisking strategy for their first few programs, Actus chose known valid targets like Nectin IV and B7H3. Nectin IV is critical in bladder cancer, and the company's second program targeting B7H3 is even more ambitious, expressed on every major solid tumor, including the big three: prostate, colorectal, and lung. Actus started clinical trials last year and has publicly guided to initial clinical data in both of

• 32:40Speaker 04

  these lead programs in 2027, with Nectin IV coming as early as Q1, so you won't have to wait long. If either program shows a signal, the company is likely to get value not only for those programs, but the entire mini-protein platform. This is the holy grail in biotech: getting value simply for the promise of what might come. What's even more compelling is there's an amazing amount of interest in radiotherapies from pharma. The big ones, including Bristol, Novartis, Bayer, and Lilly, who backstopped the Actus IPO, have been building radiotherapy capabilities, and they're hungry for assets to add to their pipelines. There's been $15 billion in M&A in deal-making in radiotherapy

• 33:23Speaker 04

  in the last few years, and we're very much in the early innings. The neatest thing about this modality is that it's very hard to replicate. Generics generally don't traffic in radio-pharma, and because the class involves radioisotopes, it's off-limits to China. So unlike most of biotech, there's a real moat. And now, the obligatory safety warning. Actus is not for everyone. You should consult your biotech analyst before purchasing Actus. Initiating a position may cause increased anxiety, reduced sleep to the night. Serious sometimes drops in stock price occur in biotech. Immediately after investing, you may experience sudden volatility due to handling risks from competitors. If stock declines or experience no further reason, call your broker immediately to increase your position. Remember, serious safety concerns have arisen in other companies' clinical development programs. While those safety concerns occur, then the Actus clinical programs date, they may in the future. The use of mini-proteins liberated from signals

• 34:05Speaker 04

  has not been proven. Actus is no market of products, and thus no recurring revenue. Solution for equity offerings may occur. In the event of a secondary offering, immediately schedule a call with Actus management team to discuss placing an order.

• 34:22Speaker 04

  It's notoriously challenging to value biotech companies because when you risk adjust and discount back, you pretty quickly get to zero. For earlier-stage opportunities like this, we like to triangulate. We think Actus could be worth $10 billion or $200 per share if even one of their programs makes it to market, and in this case, you have a lot of outs.

• 34:40David Friedberg?

  I'm not familiar with why radioisotopes are off limits to China.

• 34:45Speaker 04

  So, in this particular case, Actus' radioisotope payload is actinium, and actinium is manufactured from radium-233, which was used in our own nuclear programs in the US in the 50s and 60s, so it's a waste product from there. So, actinium is not even available in other countries like China because they had a completely different, their own program was completely different with enriched uranium and plutonium.

• 35:13David Friedberg?

  But the risk for a lot of biotech in China replication came about that Amgen-Senofi Supreme Court case, didn't it, where you could make a small, because it basically said all patents are composition of matter patents, so you could change one amino acid, get around the patent, and China's basically done that with a lot of biologics that are patented in the US and Europe. They just rip them off, and then you attach the radio-emitting radioisotope to the molecule, and you can kind of chase it. That's kind of why a lot of biotech's been depressed. Is that not true?

• 35:45Speaker 04

  Yeah, so with radioisotopes, again, because you have to have a manufacturing supply that you have to source locally in the US, we haven't seen any competition coming from China at all.

• 35:58David Friedberg?

  And if they have a successful readout, though, would it not be like the case that someone in China would say, hey, let's go get some of the necessary radioisotopes?

• 36:08Speaker 04

  I'm sure they can do it for the Chinese market, but in terms of then transferring that over here, we haven't seen it or kind of any wind of it at all.

• 36:19David Friedberg?

  And so then my last question, I'm sorry for monopolizing, why do you think the markets discounted the value so much since the IPO?

• 36:24Speaker 04

  Oh, gosh.

• 36:25David Friedberg?

  Given the return in biotech valuation.

• 36:27Speaker 04

  It's pretty classic biotech, so it's traded flat since the IPO. Biotech investors are so insanely short-term oriented that even though we're now, call it, eight or nine months from data, that's still way too long. And so, our expectations and the folks will start accumulating this in the second half in anticipation of the data coming in the first quarter.

• 36:46Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Gavin, you had a question?

• 36:47Speaker 07

  Yeah, sure. So, in the distant past, I ran a biopharmaceutical fund. You know, it's a very hard job. Congratulations on those numbers. But I ran that fund right after the human genome had been sequenced. And there was an expectation that the sequencing of the genome was going to lead to this explosion in therapies, personalized medicines, et cetera, et cetera. And I don't think, broadly speaking, we've made as much progress over the last 25 years as maybe people thought in the early 2000s. And my hypothesis is that the genome is too big of a problem space for the human mind or software written by humans, and AI is going to unlock a lot of kind of revolutionary therapies.

• 37:30Speaker 07

  So my question to you, I will just admit, is a selfish question. It is not about your stock pitch, which was great. It's what do you think the odds are that in the lifetimes of everyone in this room, the average human lifespan in a developed country extends well past 100, 125, 150?

• 37:49Speaker 04

  I would take the over on that.

• 37:52Speaker 04

  In no small part because we already have one of the best longevity drugs out there, and folks don't even realize it, in the GLP-1s and the obesity drugs. So one of the only things that's ever been shown with actual data to extend life is caloric restriction, and that's literally what all the obesity drugs do. So I'm sure half the people in this room are on one of them. And that's just the beginning because it's trained people that you can inject yourself with something and have healthy living through pharmaceuticals. So I think that's only going to continue.

• 38:19Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Oh, I got two questions from the audience. First one, as the launch costs per kilogram continue to fall, is there a credible pathway to use space and microgravity as a therapeutic variable, given that cancer cells appear to behave differently in low-gravity environments?

• 38:35Speaker 04

  That is a great question. It's probably not applicable to this.

• 38:38Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Okay. And then the second question, what would be a technological breakthrough that could disrupt precision radiotherapy as a result of AI at scale to drug development and pre-cancer screening?

• 38:50Speaker 04

  Yeah. Another awesome question. There's a small, skunk-swork project within ACTUS, AI project. So with all these biotech companies, they have their little proprietary data sets that they hope to leverage with various insights. So a company like this, with their mini-proteins and everything else they're trying to accomplish, they have their own little, tiny group of PhD data scientist nerds who are seeing if they can leverage that in a pretty decent way.

• 39:14David Friedberg?

  So it's been really hard to get CAR-T in solid tumors. Is it the case that these kind of personalized peptide-based immunotherapies are showing some efficacy in some solid tumors? And is that a space that's going to expand and kind of intersect here?

• 39:33Speaker 04

  What's most promising that I think a lot of folks have probably heard of is a new drug for pancreatic cancer from a company called Revmed with just another targeted therapy. So for now, there's not a huge amount of progress from peptide space.

• 39:47David Friedberg?

  And have you looked at D proteins before? These kind of right-handed proteins that seem to be able to penetrate solid tumors?

• 39:53Speaker 04

  Well, so one of the neat things about these mini proteins is they're hopefully of the right size to be able to deliver their payload inside of the tumors.

• 40:01David Friedberg?

  Incredible.

• 40:02Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Oleg, thank you.

• 40:03David Friedberg?

  Thank you.

• 40:03Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Well done.

• 40:09Chamath Palihapitiya?

  By the way, somebody just YOLO'd into the stock while Oleg was on stage. It's up 6%.

• 40:16Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Don't do that while we're all trying to buy as well, please. Come on.

• 40:19Speaker 02

  Morning, everyone. My name is Kyle Samani. Thank you for being with us at the All in Liquidity today. Thanks to the besties for organizing. Today, we're going to be talking about a little-known asset, a little crypto asset called Geonet, which is building the rails for AI. So let's jump in. Quick bit about me. I founded a firm called MultiCoin Capital about eight and a half years ago. I stepped down a few months ago. And in my time there, I was probably most well-known for leading all three rounds of investment in Solana prior to Solana's network launch in 2020. I've been deep in the crypto space for a very long time, and I thought this would be a very natural forum to talk about a very interesting investment at the intersection of crypto and AI. Also, a big shout out to David Sacks. Unfortunately, he's not here, but David did seed MultiCoin back in the day.

• 41:04Speaker 02

  So thank you, David, for believing in me very early. All right, let's get into Geonet. So the way to understand GeoNet first is to look at GPS. Probably everyone in this room has been in the situation on the left where you're using your phone and your phone is in the wrong spot, facing the wrong way. Right here, you can see this guy, it looks like he's facing a wall according to his phone. GeoNet fundamentally is a new, uses a technology called RTK or Real-Time Kinematics, where you can localize your location down to about 2 cm. For context, GPS roughly the precision is about 2 meters. So you're getting about 100x accuracy for very precise geolocation. As you can imagine, any form of kind of robotics can make use of RTK, drones being

• 41:49Speaker 02

  the very obvious example. I'll touch on a few more, just in a couple of minutes here. Today, GeoNet is the world's largest RTK network in the world, and it's also the fastest growing. The three companies you see on the left here, Trimble, Hexagon, and TopCon, have all been building RTK networks in some form or fashion for, call it, 20 to 30 years. All of them combined have roughly 12,000 base stations deployed around the world. GeoNet was founded in 2021, began building out the network in 2022, and today they are roughly twice the size of the next three guys combined. Today, GeoNet is live in 150 countries around the world, more than 11,000 cities, and covers roughly 80% of the global population excluding some sanctioned countries. So this thing is really growing quickly.

• 42:33Speaker 02

  You might say, how did these guys build this network so fast? And the key is really this decentralized crypto model. So here we're looking at literally a photo of a GeoNet base station on the roof of someone's house. The global GeoNet network, those 22,000 nodes, are not being built and deployed by someone that looks like AT&T or Verizon. Those base stations are being deployed by any random guy, or hobbyist, or professional, or small business owner who wants to make some extra money. You can go on the GeoNet's website today, you can buy one of these base stations, they're a few hundred bucks, you put it on your roof of your house or your small business, it broadcasts radio waves, you make money. You actually get paid in Geo tokens, which is the really cool part about this incentive system to bootstrap this thing to get it off the ground. So the GeoNet network started about four years ago doing this.

• 43:18Speaker 02

  Today, it's now the largest, fastest-growing in the world by a pretty wide margin. If you want a sense of scale, here we're looking at their coverage in the United States. Obviously, every single major metro is covered, but even if you look at most of the rural parts of the country, you're covering actually the vast majority of even the rural areas. Let's talk about some of the customers and use cases for this. We'll start with agriculture first. The USDA actually launched a couple of years ago, a program to encourage farmers and ranchers to use precise ag technologies, including RTK networks. Today, the USDA is now actually subsidizing many farmers and ranchers all over the country to adopt high-precision ag, most of which is powered by Geonet. Getting into some specific examples of that. Here, we're looking at what's called a robotic mule. This is made by a company called Burrow.

• 44:03Speaker 02

  Obviously, this is transporting some grapes. You could put anything on this. It has pretty obvious application for almost any farm or ranch you can imagine. With the advent in computer vision, CPUs, batteries, all the other AI stuff, these things are growing like hotcakes. All of them are going to be powered by Geonet or something like it. Here, we're looking at John Deere. They have a new service that they rolled out recently called Global Unmanned Spraying Systems, or GUS. These things drive around. They literally spray plants with pesticides and other things of that like that. I did actually confirm this morning there are wineries here in Napa that are actually using John Deere GUS vehicles. That was pretty cool. So if you have some wine tonight, maybe it was powered by GUS. It was powered by Geonet. Obviously, autonomous vehicles has a pretty obvious application for this.

• 44:48Speaker 02

  TomTom is one of Geonet's customers. TomTom is a supplier to basically every AV program in the world, excluding maybe a couple. And today, TomTom is using Geonet's data to update their maps to get them more accurate and precise as they need to cover every square inch, basically, around the planet.

• 45:06Speaker 02

  One of my favorite use cases are kind of the next wave of consumer robotics, which are getting a lot of hype these days. I think the most obvious one are robotic lawn mowers. I don't think anyone loves to mow their lawn. Robotic lawn mowers are now actually rolling out at pretty good scale. They're estimated they're going to sell 1 million robotic lawn mowers this year, made by companies like Yarbo, Sunseeker, and others. All of those guys are all powered by Geonet.

• 45:30Speaker 02

  Next up, let's get to drones. The world's largest drone manufacturer, DJI, is a Geonet customer. It's not in all of their models, but it is in a lot of their models. And so, obviously, DJI is sending a ton of traffic now over Geonet. In the coming months and years, as DJI wounds down in the US and you have a new wave of American drone manufacturers pop up, I'm going to venture to guess that most, if not all of them, are going to end up on the Geonet network as well. The Geonet team is based in the US, has deep roots here. What I love about Geonet is it's a really obvious network effect, network affects business. This thing looks like a natural telecom. You have base stations kind of all over the world, you've got to cover the whole planet. Telecoms naturally form monopolies historically. I think the same is likely to be true here.

• 46:12Speaker 02

  Today, Geonet is the world's largest and fastest-growing network with also the lowest cost structure by a very wide margin because of this decentralized nature where people just put these things on top of their house. In terms of where the business at, the business just crossed about $11 million in annualized run rate a few days ago, and it's growing more than 3X year-over-year. I think it's going to probably more than triple over the next 12 months. What's really cool about Geonet is how capital-efficient it is and how they're actually returning capital to token holders. So today, the Geonet network is taking of that $11 million in revenue, roughly 80% of it is being used to make open-market purchases of geo tokens. And this is all visible on the Solana blockchain. They have all the addresses are published and stuff, so it's all verifiable in real time.

• 46:56Speaker 02

  That means $8.8 million right now per year is going into buying Geonet tokens on the open market. What's amazing is that last 20% is they're covering all their R&D costs and scaling out now their business development team. With a business like this, of course, like it's a pretty small network of customers, the guys who work at John Deere know the guys who work at DJI, who know the guys who work at TomTom. And so, this thing is now growing virally amongst this kind of core community of customers. And as you can imagine, with customers who sign up for a service like this, they tend to ramp up their usage of that service over time. So, once someone starts rolling out Geonet, in the first year, they're usually spending about $60,000 per year. After two years, though, they're usually spending about $170,000 per year. So, the average Geonet customer is growing their revenue with Geonet. About 3X in that second year.

• 47:41Speaker 02

  Obviously, then we look at they're just their customers. They've signed up in the last two years. You can see they 5X their customer base last year. Those are that net new customers. So applying some pretty simple math here. You can see they have a very clear path to more than 3X this year as this thing ramps up. Just to wrap things up, summary. Geonet is the world's largest RTK network, growing the fastest. It has really obvious network effects and is likely to be a very natural monopoly. Growing 3X year over year with a bunch of flagship customers and brands that you all know. Obviously, we have this huge physical AI tailwind behind us now. Robotics and all the other amazing stuff happening. And they're returning capital to shareholders. The token does trade on the Solana blockchain. If you want to buy, it trades 24/7. The ticker is G E O D. So if you want to actually get some Geo tokens.

• 48:25Speaker 02

  I encourage you to sign up for a crypto wallet, a Solana wallet. And you can go ahead and buy Geo tokens from there. And with that, I think we are ready for some Q and A.

• 48:36Jason Calacanis?

  Awesome. What's the market cap?

• 48:39Speaker 02

  Oh, sorry. It's trading about 150 million on a fully diluted basis. If you were to go look at any of the crypto price websites like coin.co or coinmarketcap, they're going to show you something like 60 or 70 million. That's because not all of the tokens are floating yet. But the fully diluted number is about 150.

• 48:51Jason Calacanis?

  Is there a corporation behind it? Or is this just like a project in the Cayman Islands, in Panama, with a board that nobody knows who's on it? Tell us about governance.

• 49:03Speaker 02

  So the Geonet team is a US-based corporation. They're four teams in San Francisco. The CEO's name is Mike Horton. A really, really good guy who's been building in this kind of IOT smart device space.

• 49:13Jason Calacanis?

  Explain the relationship between the corporate entity and the token. And which one should we own?

• 49:21Speaker 02

  You should own the tokens. I own a lot of the token, as you might imagine. I don't own any of the equity. The relationship is Geonet, the company is facing John Deere, DJI, all these companies. And they have a contractual relationship with the Geonet Foundation to use 80% of their revenues to buy tokens off the open market.

• 49:39Jason Calacanis?

  And does that corporation raise venture capital or anything?

• 49:42Speaker 02

  Yes, my prior company, MultiCoin, actually led around in Geonet previously.

• 49:47Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, Kyle, I have many questions from the audience, so bear with me. Question one. Do you like helium as much, which is Geonet for 5G signal?

• 49:55Speaker 02

  Yes, I actually led MultiCoin's investment in helium six or seven years ago. And I continue to be a very big long-term believer. They actually had big news go out this morning. But yeah, I'm a big helium fan.

• 50:06Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Question two. There's a long list of deep in projects that have failed because people just don't value the token rewards. Why is this any different?

• 50:15Speaker 02

  I mean, they're returning capital to shareholders. This thing is, you know, trading $8.8 million to shareholders, just trading at $150 million valuation, and it's going to grow 3X this year. It's an unbelievably cheap asset. It's just people aren't paying attention because it's crypto bear market right now.

• 50:29Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Okay, from Sam.

• 50:30David Friedberg?

  Can you understand, it's a securitized interest in the cash flows from the customers?

• 50:35Speaker 02

  Effectively, yes. It is a revenue. It is a...

• 50:38David Friedberg?

  It's a revenue share token.

• 50:39Speaker 02

  Correct, 80%.

• 50:41Chamath Palihapitiya?

  So the more John Deere pays GeoNet the company, the more you basically deprecate the tokens, which should cause the token...

• 50:50Speaker 02

  They're buying tokens in the open market, correct. Yes.

• 50:52Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Okay, from Sam. What accrues value? The equity or the token? Similar to...

• 50:55David Friedberg?

  We just covered that.

• 50:56Chamath Palihapitiya?

  How does the value accrual mechanisms square or not with current securities laws or what's contemplated in the Clarity Act?

• 51:03Speaker 02

  Yeah, so the one answer to your question is the tokens are the ones accruing value because they're taking 80% and buying. The other 20% is obviously funding operations. They have engineers, salespeople, all that stuff. So that's all there and being funded. In terms of securities laws, the Clarity Act passing is certainly very good for GeoNet. I'm not a lawyer, so I'm not going to tell you that, you know, it passes the bars set in the Clarity Act, but I can tell you I'm an optimist and I've been very involved in the Clarity Act and I'm not too worried about it.

• 51:30David Friedberg?

  Okay, can I ask about the business just real quick?

• 51:32Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Yep.

• 51:33David Friedberg?

  So John Deere, I know this space somewhat well. I used to manage a company called Precision Planting in agriculture. And there was, John Deere makes their own RTK systems. So when you like run a piece of equipment that relies on RTK, you're buying, in the construction industry, Topcon or Leica or Trimble or John Deere, and you install the RTK base stations and you run your equipment, why would John Deere and others want to rely on this system as a different, like, why is it better than like the systems that they're already using? It wasn't quite clear to me.

• 52:07Speaker 02

  I mean, CapEx versus OpEx, right? Like, right, these networks are all over the world now. They're running at very low cost. GeoNet is probably a third to half, sorry, a third to a quarter of the price than buying up your own CapEx and doing it. And it's just available everywhere. So now it just reduces the sales cycle time for John Deere when they just say, buy the tractor, it's good.

• 52:26David Friedberg?

  There's another big push right now for MicroSats to be an alternative to GPS in a way that they can actually provide sub-centimeter resolution, effectively replacing both GPS and RTK using a mesh network from SpaceX launched, or actually SpaceX, I don't know if SpaceX has looked at doing this, but I know that there is a very well-funded company that is trying to put up MicroSats to basically replace GPS and RTK. Doesn't that ultimately kind of wash out the need to have all these Earth-based base stations?

• 52:58Speaker 02

  There's no chance they can compete on cost because just sending things to space, satellites, that's so, I mean, these Geonet base stations are a few hundred bucks. Like, you're just not going to compete on cost with Geonet.

• 53:09Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Do you think that this is a viable replacement at scale and saturation for GPS itself?

• 53:15Speaker 02

  No. GPS is definitely very different.

• 53:18Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Because the SLA is different.

• 53:20David Friedberg?

  You've got to have ubiquity for GPS, for GPS alternative, which is why you have to have the satellites everywhere. You've got to have enough satellites. But if you get enough satellites, you can actually get to RTK precision, and you don't need to have the big expensive GPS.

• 53:32Chamath Palihapitiya?

  You'd have a hybrid situation where you have a bunch of GEO and LEO plus a bunch of base stations all over the place. That hybrid situation, probably.

• 53:41David Friedberg?

  You could actually get, the LEO alone can replace all of the GEO stuff.

• 53:46Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Right.

• 53:46David Friedberg?

  That's the goal. And then, if you get enough of them, which SpaceX unlocks, yeah.

• 53:51Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And Kyle, what about like other tokens? When you think about other compute tasks, like work to be done, for example, there's a bunch of tokens that have emerged in distributed training. How did you hone in on this and exclude the others? Not meaning prefer this over that?

• 54:08Speaker 02

  I mean, I met the Geonet founder years ago. He pitched us, and I've gotten to know him and followed it. The distributed training stuff, there's a whole bunch of people trying it. I'm pretty skeptical. I don't think any of it's going to work. The distributed inference stuff is possible, although it has not worked as well as we would have hoped. I did put some money behind that a few years ago. It's working, but not A+. One last thing, actually, David, on your prior question, I want to highlight, is also energy use. Going to space just consumes way more energy than going to a base station that's, you know, on the ground. And so, yeah, for a tractor, maybe that doesn't matter, but for a drone, or for any other battery-sensitive application, ground is always going to be the preferred solution.

• 54:45Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Super interesting.

• 54:46David Friedberg?

  Well done.

• 54:47Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Kyle, thank you. Thank you so much.

• 54:51Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Before we vote, Chamath, give your feedback. Here's what I like. I apply the Stan Druckenmiller school of invest and investigate. I really believe in it. Yes. If you don't have any skin in the game, you don't care. And this is the kind of stuff that I love. I love hearing ideas like this. I love all four. My difference is in sizing. So, you know, there's certain asymmetric alpha that each one of these exhibits, and then there's very different downside risk for each of them. And then there's also liquidity issues. So, for example, like, I love Kyle's idea. The problem is, I could not get enough working for me where... So, I don't even think I could get a million dollars in today. It would, to scale in, it would move the market. So, I would have to, I'd have to probably, I'd be like 10, 20, 30,000,

• 55:36Chamath Palihapitiya?

  and then maybe start to buy into it. Talon, I think that you could absorb tens of millions, and people wouldn't bite an eyelash.

• 55:45Chamath Palihapitiya?

  The biotech company, the issue there is that I think that there is, as you said, Friedberg, this discontinuous illiquidity zero risk, but then there's the 10x upside. So, there's just like huge wired alpha. Lilly will bid for it. And then MGM, I think, is just, so I think MGM and Talon are the ones you could have huge sizing in. Right. And then the other ones, I think you have a piece, because they're like lottery tickets. I think your point on MGM... Okay, wait, hold on, let me just review. So, company number one was MGM. And that was Aaron. Resorts, okay? Company number two? Talon. Talen Energy. Company number three? Aktis. AKTS. And then? Geodnet. Geodnet, not company, but I guess token. Yeah.

• 56:29Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Company number four, Geodnet. And you're buying the token, not the company. Do you think the, maybe for you too, Gavin, like the upside? Gavin, you ranked them. Well, no, even before you rank, just...

• 56:42Jason Calacanis?

  Tell us what you think of the format and then assess the companies. We'll do ranking at the end. We're gonna do 4-3-2, we're gonna do 4-3-2-1 onstage, but give me your general ideas about the pitches, what you liked, what you didn't.

• 56:54Speaker 07

  I thought the pitches were great. I thought the format was amazing. I would for sure expand it next year. There are platforms that you guys could have a all-in basket or ETF that people could trade in. So like, maybe that's something.

• 57:08Jason Calacanis?

  Will you do it next year?

• 57:09Speaker 07

  Will I pitch next year?

• 57:11Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah.

• 57:12Speaker 07

  Jake, I'll do anything.

• 57:13Jason Calacanis?

  Well, I, I, he's locked.

• 57:16Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Actually, here's what I would ask Gavin to put you on the spot. Next year, I would, I think we would all learn and benefit if you would do silicon and memory super cycle.

• 57:27Speaker 07

  Sure.

• 57:28Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Would you be willing to do that for us?

• 57:29Jason Calacanis?

  The talk.

• 57:30Speaker 07

  I'll do it. Sign me up.

• 57:31Jason Calacanis?

  Perfect.

• 57:32Speaker 07

  Sign me up.

• 57:33Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, so keep going.

• 57:34Speaker 07

  Well, no, as far as the pitches, I do think, I think it's important to disaggregate, like, what was a really great entertaining pitch versus what I think is a really good risk reward. I thought Oleg and Kyle did a great job with the pitches, but I'm, I'm not a healthcare investor, nor am I a crypto investor. I thoroughly enjoyed the presentations. I actually thought GNET was very interesting. I'm happy to learn from Oleg that I might lift well into my 100s. That was good news for me and everybody in the room. I enjoyed all the, the military terminology and analogies.

• 58:09Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, that was really great, huh?

• 58:10Speaker 07

  That was great.

• 58:11Jason Calacanis?

  Really great.

• 58:12Speaker 07

  I do think, from a pure risk reward perspective, I thought MGM was the best. Your downside is really capped because of the Barry Diller bid, and then you have Japan and Dubai as, I think, very valuable future sources of value. And I do think Talend is also a very compelling risk reward. I just think everything in AI is going to need to grapple with increasing regulatory risk, which we talked about last time, that I was on the pod with you guys. And I don't know how to dimensionalize that. And, you know, I've been...

• 58:48Jason Calacanis?

  Like the big negative externality for Talon is nothing to do with Talon.

• 58:52Speaker 07

  Nothing to do with Talon.

• 58:53Jason Calacanis?

  It's like something over the top from the US government caps prices, something, something.

• 58:57Speaker 07

  Yeah, you have.

• 58:58Jason Calacanis?

  Nationalizes the lab.

• 58:59Speaker 07

  You have a change in administration, you have a change in Congress. There's laws that are passed that I think make it hard for terrestrial compute, which changes the utilities supply-demand, but I actually think outside of that Talon was super compelling.

• 59:12Jason Calacanis?

  So you got MGM, you got Talon, now just the other two.

• 59:15Speaker 07

  I thought they were both great pitches. Can I tie them for third?

• 59:19Jason Calacanis?

  Well, no, don't even give the score, just any feedback on those two ideas, or those are just a little bit lottery ticket for you?

• 59:27Speaker 07

  No, I thought ACTUS was very compelling. They're trying to do something different, as Oleg said. If you ever get a biotech company that can become a platform and they have a mechanism, whether it's of drugging, whether it's targeting, if you have something that is broadly applicable, that is when you can get these really, really big $100 billion-plus outcomes in biotech, which are rare. So I thought that part of ACTUS was super compelling.

• 59:57Jason Calacanis?

  You don't play crypto?

• 1:00:00Speaker 07

  I don't play crypto, but I thought the entire Geonet discussion was fascinating.

• 1:00:04Jason Calacanis?

  Is there anything that would get you off the bench and make you jump into the crypto game? Or it's just you're... Why are you not playing the crypto game?

• 1:00:14Speaker 07

  I feel about crypto exactly the way I do about snowboarding, okay? I'm not a very good athlete. I've spent a lifetime learning how to ski, and I'm okay. And just the idea of getting on a snowboard, having, you know, thousands of hours of ski instruction.

• 1:00:33Jason Calacanis?

  You don't want the pain for the game?

• 1:00:34Speaker 07

  Yes, and I have 25 years of lessons, learnings, pain, scars from investing in equities and public securities. And just crypto, it's a little bit like snowboarding for me, but like, you know.

• 1:00:49Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, too hard.

• 1:00:50Speaker 07

  Everybody who wants to snowboard, that's great. Everybody who wants to do crypto, that's great.

• 1:00:54Jason Calacanis?

  Just please don't go sideways down the mountain and ruin the powder, David. I think your assessment of MGM Talon.

• 1:01:00David Friedberg?

  Okay, so I think MGM, I look at the kind of return upside, the downside and the timeline. MGM is like probably a 3X. I think it's also missing this point that I've heard a lot about. You can actually upgrade the monetization on these Vegas properties. We were talking to a friend of ours in Vegas. They're making a million bucks a day in incremental EBITDA every day that they have a show at the Sphere. At the Venetian Hotel, which is an unbelievable statistic, which tells you that when you have the entertainment draw, the gambling revenue just flies.

• 1:01:34Jason Calacanis?

  Flies.

• 1:01:34David Friedberg?

  And so Barry Diller, I have heard separately, has been spending a lot of time on trying to reinvent the entertainment at these properties and thinks he has an idea on how to do it, which will cause the gambling revenue to fly. So I think even if you discount the upside on these new locations, there's probably a lot of work to be done. And I do like the floor on the bid. And then you've got, call it 3X in two years, even if this bid goes nowhere and they keep the thing running, and they're like, we're going to reject the bid and keep running independently. Talon is maybe 3X upside, 5X upside, but it's eight years out. And I think one of the other challenges with Talon that I would kind of use as a valuation metric is, I think it's more interest rate sensitive than MGM is. Because the power purchase agreements really are where a lot of the revenue comes from.

• 1:02:19David Friedberg?

  So you're going to get a discount rate that's a function of where interest rates are sitting. So I think if interest rates shoot up, which some might argue there's risk there, you actually get margin compression from that 15X outlook that he has for Talon. So that would be my kind of downside scenario on Talon in the time ahead. And Actis, I do worry, because I'm an investor in a company that's got a deep protein conjugate that shows really strong efficacy into getting solid tumors. I think that there are new modalities for therapeutics for solid tumors that are being discussed that may kind of put this at risk. I think the China risk is legit, because I've seen it across the board in biotech. Everything gets ripped off and people go to China. But they could have a hit and Lilly could bid on it in six months if they actually get a good readout.

• 1:03:03David Friedberg?

  So there's certainly upside, but the downside is probably 50, 75% if they get a bad readout or China. Or some new modality comes out. So I think the ranking is probably MGM, Talon, Actis. And then the, for me, the Geodnet piece, I just think the space thing is likely the path. It's going to replace all RTK and all GPS in the next decade. It's an inevitable piggyback on systems that are already going up.

• 1:03:25Jason Calacanis?

  All right, great. So I think I've got everybody. For me, I put them into two buckets. I think AKTS and GOD, those are like lottery tickets, could be crazy returns, but you know, there's a, there's a big probability of a zero there if they don't, you know, actually work. And then MGM and Talon, obviously you've got the downside protection and those feel like, people will always gamble and leave the lights on. So I kind of like both of those. I put 200K into each in real time. I bet they gamble and leave the lights on. So that's just like my, I don't have a public vehicle.

• 1:04:00David Friedberg?

  Did you actually buy?

• 1:04:01Jason Calacanis?

  I'm just day trading.

• 1:04:02Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I, I bought half of his action.

• 1:04:04Jason Calacanis?

  Okay.

• 1:04:04Chamath Palihapitiya?

  He's just lying to me. And I don't have a Robinhood account. I have to call my office. So I was like, just I'll take half.

• 1:04:10Jason Calacanis?

  Stew's you lose, buddy.

• 1:04:11Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I'll take half your money.

• 1:04:12David Friedberg?

  I'm up seven. I didn't see you with your thumbs.

• 1:04:14Jason Calacanis?

  I'm up 7% across the portfolio, so I don't think I can include you here.

• 1:04:18Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I gotta go through 19 steps to buy it.

• 1:04:19David Friedberg?

  I waited the three in the order I said on my, so anyway, I'll just give mine really quick. I will go MGM, Talon, GOD, AKTS.

• 1:04:30Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Gavin's only gonna make $50 trillion.

• 1:04:32Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, let's bring the, let's bring our four pitchers out.

• 1:04:35Chamath Palihapitiya?

  You can have a $1,000 bottle or please get the...

• 1:04:38Jason Calacanis?

  Two men hugging statue. Wait, wait, no, before you announce it, I need the extremely alpha male heterosexual trophy. The all-in heterosexual alpha male trophy, please. And I need our four pitchers to come on stage. It makes it more exciting. It's like, makes it uncomfortable when, like, they show the five people for best actor.

• 1:05:04Jason Calacanis?

  Yes.

• 1:05:08Jason Calacanis?

  They all got the tequila. You put those on the table. But wait, where's my award?

• 1:05:12Speaker 07

  We're doing full marketing here.

• 1:05:13Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, the award. You guys have the award? Please bring me the extremely heterosexual alpha male award.

• 1:05:19Jason Calacanis?

  You'll see why when I show you the award. Pass me this.

• 1:05:21Speaker 07

  Side over a little more.

• 1:05:22Jason Calacanis?

  Bring me that award. Let me show you how we 3D modeled this. Okay, no one wants to see this whole board. Look at this. This is two men uncomfortably hugging, and the way we did this is the best award. Come here, Friedberg. I'm not doing it with you. Come on, Friedberg. You do it tomorrow. Friedberg, okay, fine. He's extremely comfortable.

• 1:05:39Chamath Palihapitiya?

  That's David and I.

• 1:05:40Jason Calacanis?

  It's David and you, but let's show them how we modeled this. We just did a long.

• 1:05:43Chamath Palihapitiya?

  This is uncomfortable, and we hold it for five extra seconds. At two minutes, you get the release of oxytocin. There it is.

• 1:05:50Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, so gentlemen, this is it. Do you guys have the results? Go ahead. Audience award. Okay, right. Audience award.

• 1:05:57Chamath Palihapitiya?

  So, based on 150 votes from the audience, do I just go 4 to 1?

• 1:06:03Jason Calacanis?

  4 to 1. 4 to 1 is more exciting.

• 1:06:05Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Okay. Fourth place with 5% of the vote was Kyle Samani.

• 1:06:09Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, well done on the board.

• 1:06:13Chamath Palihapitiya?

  A very close second place.

• 1:06:16Jason Calacanis?

  No, third.

• 1:06:17Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Third place with 21% of the vote, Oleg Prokhorov.

• 1:06:21Jason Calacanis?

  Oleg, oh boy, we're closing in here, guys.

• 1:06:24Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Here it goes. Okay, here we go. And with 50, 50, 5-0% of the vote.

• 1:06:30Jason Calacanis?

  Who's number two?

• 1:06:30Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I'm gonna go to... No, you say number one now.

• 1:06:32Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, okay.

• 1:06:33Chamath Palihapitiya?

  No, okay. Well, okay, sorry. Yeah, you're right. With 24% of the vote, in second place,

• 1:06:42Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Aaron Cowen for MGM, number one with 50% of the vote, Dan Dreyfus.

• 1:06:46Jason Calacanis?

  Hey! Wow, unbelievable. Give it up. Nicely done. Now, the bestie.

• 1:06:52Chamath Palihapitiya?

  But hold on, before we do the bestie, how do you feel right now, having won this... Pass him the award.

• 1:06:57Jason Calacanis?

  You guys look so uncomfortable. There's no ace.

• 1:07:02Chamath Palihapitiya?

  But pass him his award for a second. Let him hold it.

• 1:07:05Speaker 07

  Give it Academy Awards. Thank everybody who got to this place.

• 1:07:09Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Say a few words. I got my award. I got my tequila. Thank you.

• 1:07:14Jason Calacanis?

  There you go.

• 1:07:15Chamath Palihapitiya?

  All right, well done. Okay, now.

• 1:07:17Jason Calacanis?

  Okay.

• 1:07:18Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Bestie award, 4, 3, 2, 1. It's relatively similar here. Fourth place was Kyle Samani.

• 1:07:25Jason Calacanis?

  Okay.

• 1:07:25Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Third place was Oleg. Second place, Dan Draper's first place, Aaron Cowen. Big upset, flipped the audience vote.

• 1:07:34Jason Calacanis?

  There you go. All right, so MGM wins.

• 1:07:36Speaker 03

  All right. Thanks, guys.

• 1:07:37Jason Calacanis?

  This was amazing. All right, thank you all for participating.

• 1:07:41Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Thank you very much for coming.

• 1:07:42Jason Calacanis?

  Thank you so much for coming, and we'll see you at a bit.