Why a Weird NBA Season Finally Went Full Weirdo On Us, With Tim Legler

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Tim Legler to discuss what a strange NBA season it’s been before breaking down Bill’s updated power poll (2:54). Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Tim Legler Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit⁠⁠⁠ www.rg-help.com⁠⁠⁠ to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. In today's sports, everyone is constantly trying to outdo each other. Trick formations, infield shifts, constant rotation changes. Yet it's proven time and time again that strong fundamentals are the thing that will lead you to victory. Banking, no different. While everyone else tries to outdo each other, PNC Bank just keeps going right down the middle with steady, calculated money moves and the financial wins just keep coming. PNC Bank, brilliantly boring since 1865, brilliantly boring since 1865 is a registered mark of the PNC Financial Services Group, Incorporated. PNC Bank, National Association, Member, FTIC.

• 0:46Bill Simmons?

  The Bill Simmons Podcast is presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. We are also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network, where I have a podcast called The Rewatchables that was on Spotify and all these other platforms and you could watch the video on Spotify. And now you can watch it on Netflix as well. We put up a bunch of old episodes and then the newest episode we did on Monday, Zodiac, and we went longer than the actual movie Zodiac. I think we were 13 minutes longer. You can watch it on Spotify and listen to it on Spotify. You can also watch it on Netflix and you can watch the movie on Netflix. So next week, we are going to do Wild Things, another movie that's on Netflix, a movie that's been on the list for a long, long time.

• 1:31Bill Simmons?

  So you have five days to watch Wild Things. And by the way, if you want to get this podcast or The Rewatchables or any of the other Ringer podcasts on Netflix, click on the My List thing. If you click on it, every time we have a new episode, it'll just pop up on your My List thing and it makes it way easier to see if we have a new one up. But it's been fun to be on there and I hope you're continuing to consume the podcast on Spotify as well because we love Spotify. Anyway, coming up on this podcast, the one, the only Tim Legler. I had a bunch of stuff to throw at him and I made him go through a power poll of all the teams 30 to 1. I ranked them. He played off my rankings.

• 2:12Bill Simmons?

  We've done this before as a Bill Simmons podcast, but this was fun. We had a lot to cover. And we, and we got to talk about Charlotte again, which is really all I want. All I want to do is talk about Charlotte and the Celtics on my podcast at this point. The other 28 teams, whatever. Anyway, that's all coming up next. We're gonna take a break, gonna bring in Pearl Jam and then Tim Legler. The Bill Simmons Podcast is presented by FanDuel. Playoff mode is on. FanDuel's got it all. Same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in live, offers to boost your winnings every game day. You do not want to miss out on the playoff action, the remaining playoff action we have on FanDuel. Download the FanDuel app or head to fanduel.com/BS to get started.

• 2:54Bill Simmons?

  21 plus and present in select states or 18 plus and present in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com, call 888-789-7777, or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut.

• 3:34Bill Simmons?

  All right, our friend Tim Legler is here. We're taping this Tuesday afternoon Pacific time because he had to fly. Congrats on actually getting a flight that successfully landed in another part of the United States. He's in Cleveland, getting ready to do a Cavs game tomorrow. We're going to go through the league. I sent you my power pull that I did 30, 30 to one. We're going to go down in order. We've never done this before. You're going to enjoy it. I had a thing at the top that I didn't prep you on. I looked this up. Last 25 games, the best record in the league is 17 and 8, and the worst record in the league is 7 and 18. All 30 teams in the last 25 games are separated by 10 games, which raises the larger question of...

• 4:17Bill Simmons?

  What's going on this season?

• 4:20Bill Simmons?

  Why, why does it feel like everybody is kinda near each other game to game? Anyone could beat anybody on a given night. Nobody is elevating above anybody else. What the hell is happening?

• 4:31Speaker 01

  So I agree with everything you just said. It's been the weirdest year that I've covered. Absolutely no idea on a given night what to expect. You look at matchups and you think you got a pretty good feel for who should win the game. And you, you have no idea. And the reason is because I think it's because I'm seeing a greater fluctuation than I've seen in the guys being available. That's been going on for a while, but the, the availability of players being as tumultuous as it is. That lends the sum of this, but I've also seen a tremendous fluctuation. The number of nights that I've seen teams either been person when I've sat courtside

• 5:14Speaker 01

  calling a game, sitting at home on league pass, watching the game. The fluctuation in effort. There, there are nights when you watch teams and you can't believe how flat they are. You know, and, and I've seen more of that this year than any other time, which means on any given night, anybody is capable of beating anybody. It may sound like you think that's a cliche because it's the NBA, but you, normally that's not the case. If you have teams that are contenders, that are teams that are really playing for something later in the year, we all know that. And you get a team that is not, or a team that's got a bunch of young dudes, or a team that's clearly not really that concerned about winning games because they're trying to think about the future. Like, and you get that team on your home floor, mid-season, in the dog days, you're

• 5:59Speaker 01

  supposed to beat that team down. And I've seen more nights now where those teams have been flat. Or one team even in a matchup where two really good teams are about to play and you're super excited about the game. And for whatever reason, one of them just comes out and they're so flat, it's almost borderline disinterested. And you just, it leads to these crazy scores, these really weird results. Some of the blowouts we've seen from bad teams beating down. On good teams.

• 6:27Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 6:27Speaker 01

  Not just winning like buzzer beaters like, oh, wow, they played hard. They thought they were in the game and they eventually won it. No, they beat it, beaten teams by 25 and 30 points on their home floor. So I agree with you. It's been a crazy year. Now I think it's going to stabilize. I think when you get to, after the All-Star break, you get into early March, you're going to see start, some of this start to stabilize. And you're going to start to really hone in on that, whatever it may be, six, eight, 10 teams, however many you are really interested in at the top. Those are the teams you're going to focus on. You're going to see more consistent effort and more consistent availability of their guys. At that point, I think both of those things have led to it.

• 7:04Bill Simmons?

  I think that's a good answer. I would throw in a couple ideas I had as well. The three-point shooting, because there's more threes than ever. Every year, there's been more threes than the last year. Since, I don't know, seven straight years. And you just have these nights like, I might be able to beat OKC if they shoot seven for 30 from three, right? Which they'll do from time to time. And you look at some of the losses they've had, they just didn't make threes. Conversely, I might be able to beat anybody if I go 20 for 42 from three.

• 7:32Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 7:32Bill Simmons?

  I just might, that just might be what I shoot today and you're probably not going to beat me because I'm getting 10 extra points. So I think the shooting's better. The depth is better. I think there's teams with benches this year. Where you look back to 2006 or you go to 2013. You, nobody had benches. Like, remember that one year the Nuggets were good when they had Ty Lawson and all those guys? I was like, the Nuggets are so deep. Oh, there's like 20 teams like that now. I think that's one of the reasons the Raptors have been good. Like, they can be down 10 in the first quarter and then you watch their bench just bring them back. So there's, there's depth. Then the third thing, which I did prep you on. I do feel like there's a before and after moment happening with the coaching. I feel like we're moving into this new era of coaches.

• 8:16Bill Simmons?

  And I'm looking at guys like, for instance, uh, Jordy.

• 8:24Bill Simmons?

  Darko, Charles Lee, Missoula, Adelman, Tiago Splitter. There's one more that I'm leaving out because

• 8:32Speaker 01

  Jordan.

• 8:34Bill Simmons?

  Those seven guys.

• 8:35Speaker 01

  I put Mitch Johnson in there, too.

• 8:37Bill Simmons?

  So Mitch Johnson. So, and I was thinking about in football, when we watched this happen, at some point with like these younger guys, like the McVay type guys, and they came in and they were young, they were hungry, they were workaholics. And it just became harder for these old school coaches to beat like these young type guys. And this was a thing that happened in the NFL for a while. And I wonder in basketball if this is starting to happen. These guys are raised on analytics. They're raised on, they have more pieces to work with. They're like chefs in the kitchen that have like 10 different ingredients instead of four. They can kind of shape their team to a style. They can be like, you know what, like Phoenix, we're just going to try harder than everyone else. That's going to be our style. We have one great player.

• 9:20Bill Simmons?

  We're going to be really intense. We're going to pressure everybody and we're going to come at waves. And this is just how we're going to play. And then we're actually going to do it. There's just more of that than ever. And I think day to day, I think it's just harder to get through the schedule. Like I'm impressed now when teams win seven in a row. I think that's like shit, like Toronto just went four and two on the West Coast trip. I'm like, that's pretty good. Charlotte, think, what did they go four and two, four and three? It's like, that's impressive. Like you shouldn't be able to do that. But do you see, I know you care about this probably as much as anyone. Do you see something shifting with the coaching here?

• 9:55Speaker 01

  I think this is the best collection of young coaches as far as an infusion of young coaching talent that this league has ever seen.

• 10:01Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 10:01Speaker 01

  And, and I didn't know a lot of these guys very well. I got to spend time with them in, in September, when I did some of those coaches corner things I was doing. And, and so, you know, what you see is like three minutes of film breakdown, but we had longer conversations than that. That, you know, wasn't aired unless the longer version was on NBA TV or something. You might've seen it there, but. That was, for some of these guys, you know, like last year, I interviewed Adam a couple of times because I had playoff games and he took over obviously right before the playoffs. So you get an opportunity to kind of meet him, but that's different in a pregame interview than really spending time and kind of like just, you know, shooting the shit with him. And I was so impressed walking out of the room with all of these different guys you just mentioned for a lot of different reasons.

• 10:44Speaker 01

  One is that they clearly have like minds for the game that they're processing stuff and constantly trying to find ways to like make offense better, make defense better. Like their minds are so analytical in the way they think, but they have found a way to command the room at a time when I think new coaches come in, there's just natural skepticism on the part of the players.

• 11:09Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 11:10Speaker 01

  It, that's always there, particularly when, you know, in some cases, guys hired from within, like these guys stayed within the organization, it's a little bit easier. The players have been working with those guys already so that transition is a little bit easier, but it's still a totally different power structure when now they're the head coach. It's a different relationship, but the guys that have come in and they come from other places and you know that these players are not that familiar with them, to be able to come in when you're young, particularly when because they made it higher and obviously why, because the team has not done well the last few years, there's a natural pessimism and a cynicism that exists already in the room. So you've got to come in, not only convince them, you know what the hell you're talking

• 11:52Speaker 01

  about, which players are constantly seeking out fraudulent things that come out of your mouth when there's a coaching change to not buy in. When, not only do you have to do that, convince them like, okay, this guy's pretty smart, it's a pretty good idea, you then have to be able to have the presence, you know, to command the situation and, and, and handling both is not very easy for guys to have this many young coaches doing it at the same time. It's really high level, look, and some of them haven't had as many wins as other guys, you know, for different reasons, you hope they get a long enough run to turn it around where they are, but that's a long list you just gave. I mean, it's basically, you almost named almost a third of the league.

• 12:34Bill Simmons?

  I literally named 25, well, you throw in the San Antonio coach, that's eight of the 30.

• 12:39Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 12:39Bill Simmons?

  And there are all these younger guys. Like, I look at a team like Brooklyn, that team's overachieving. Like, I watched the entire Celtics-Nets game Friday night, and I

• 12:47Speaker 01

  Wait a second, though. Wait a second, though. I love Jordy. I love Jordy. I tell, but I will say this. The defense at the end of overtime.

• 12:56Bill Simmons?

  Oh, that's bad. That's bad.

• 12:57Speaker 01

  To allow that three-point shot. Like, that's way beyond a miscommunication. I mean, I have no idea. I watched it four times in a row. I just kept replaying it because I'm thinking, with like, two seconds to go, and you're, you're up three, how in the world could Gonzalez get that open in the, in the corner off an inbound pass where there's nobody within 20 feet of him? And I'm just watching, like, what was Michael Porter Jr. doing? He's running with them and then just stops, changes direction, and starts running to the opposite side of the court with Sam House. But there's no screen that took place. It was so bizarre that I'm not going to beat up Jordy for that, but that's a brutal way to lose a game. When you, when you basically stole one, it didn't look like you had a chance with three minutes ago in regulation.

• 13:41Speaker 01

  And now it looks like you can't possibly lose at the end of overtime, and somehow you find a way to let them tie it. So it's a bad loss, but I agree with you. I do think that the team is overachieving. Look at their roster. I mean, there's, there's, there's no question about it. But then guys like Mitch Johnson and Ott and Darko, who I've always been really, thought was really sharp. He's finally getting some wins now that people are starting to buy into that a little bit. Adelman is unbelievably bright, and he's just really cool. He's kind of funny when you get to hang around him. His personality shows.

• 14:08Bill Simmons?

  Going nine and five without, without Jokic, and then Murray leaves halfway through that, and they're still, like, succeeding, and he's getting stuff out of the young guys.

• 14:15Speaker 01

  All the other guys that have been out already, when, you know, Christian Brown's been out, Aaron Gordon's been out. So you look at the totality of what they are, and knowing their best punch by far is going to come over the last six weeks of the regular season. So, so, you know, and we're going to get into that. Like, what does that mean overall for how we view, like, what this could look like at the end of the year? Because I think it looks a lot different than any of us thought two months into the season, for a variety of reasons. And we'll get into the top teams as well.

• 14:47Bill Simmons?

  I was sticking with basketball analysis. There was a specific moment, and that was in the middle of it because I was writing for ESPN, and we had Grantland, where you could feel the discourse about basketball, like, changing in real time, right? And it was The old school way of like, oh, he's really good in the clutch. And you would just kind of say that. And then all of a sudden, we started to get numbers.

• 15:06Speaker 01

  Right.

• 15:07Bill Simmons?

  And we started looking at five man lineups. And I remember I've talked about this before, but the, when I was on Countdown that first year and Rudy Gay got traded and we had this whole argument about, well, what are they going to do without Rudy Gay? That's their guy at the end of games. And we had enough data at that point, but it's like, he's actually not that good at the end of games. They might be fine. And then they went on a run and it felt like this before and after moment for analytics. And I'm starting to wonder with coaches, it's not like coaches weren't using all this stuff for the last 10 to 12 years, because they were. I think what's changed is these first time coaches, younger guys are coming in, they know how to explain it to their teams and craft different lineups that the players are buying into, right?

• 15:49Bill Simmons?

  It's not, it's not like, hey, I have this wacky idea and you have your fingers crossed they're going to do it. Like the teams are buying in. I see a team like Phoenix, the team should not be 10 games over 500. I'm sorry, but when you watch them, it makes sense. Cause the eye test is telling you like, yeah, these guys are just, they play really well together. They're all in the right spots. They knew who the best guy in the team is. They game the threes correctly. They have enough rim protection size. They can guard the other team's best player. Like this makes sense as I watch it, but if you look at their roster on basketball reference, you're like, this doesn't make sense. I don't get it. And that's what's shifting.

• 16:25Speaker 01

  You make, you make a great point for this. And this is, this is why I think about now the difference in mentality. If you've got a guy that's been around a while, okay? He, he knew the other way. There was another standard way of kind of analyzing like lineups. And it was mostly the eyeball test and like your gut feeling. And the numbers weren't a big part of what they were doing on a daily basis to process like what their team was about. These guys are so young, that's all they've known. So from the time they really first started getting to a place where they're starting to, you know, ascend a little bit within, on an NBA bench, that's all they've known. This has been around long enough that it has completely influenced the way that these particular group of guys analyze their teams.

• 17:08Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 17:08Speaker 01

  So you didn't have to sell any of these guys on it. They already utilized it prior to becoming head coaches and in a lot of ways, that's all they know. So I think that they are more willing to like look at that stuff. I think sometimes it can be overused, but there's no question. It has a major bearing and JJ Reddick will be another guy you could throw into the mix. Also, by the way, really young coach, recently retired coach. You talk about a guy that's like diving into the analytics. I mean, it's, it's like such a big part of what he was doing when he was in media and, and what he's as a player. So he just rolled that right into now the way that he kind of used his team as well. There's so many coaches in the league now that that's just par for the course. That's, that's the way they've always done it because they're so young and it's influenced the way they coach. And I think there is some really good stuff that

• 17:53Speaker 01

  comes out of that as a result. Different combinations that you didn't know were that good because in the past, there wasn't enough data to back that up. But now even a smaller sample size, you kind of go, wow, that's interesting. Maybe I'll give that group a little bit more run. If there's something to that, you're going to find out.

• 18:08Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, the Celtics had that. Walsh, eye test wise, looked like he was playing really well, but there were lineups that were just better when he wasn't in them, right? And they started gravitating toward this Hauser lineup.

• 18:19Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 18:20Bill Simmons?

  And if you look at like their best five man lineups, Hauser's usually in the best one. I don't know, there might be the spacing he does offensively. He's kind of an underrated defender too, but for whatever reason, he's the one that fits. And you mentioned JJ because I think JJ is probably has the most frustrating team to coach out of all these teams because you have these, these offense only stars. You don't know when they're going to guard anybody. They don't really fit together, but he figured out, I just got to play Rui as much as possible and I gotta start moving away from Ayton, right? And that's what's happened with them in the last week. They're moving, Ayton's kind of, you can see it happening in real time. He's getting shoved out. They're going with Rui, with Luca, with LeBron, and

• 19:01Bill Simmons?

  that's in Marcus Smart, and they'll try to figure out who that fifth spot is. And that's, and I'm sure there's a bunch of advanced stuff they're looking at, like this is actually when we have these four together. This is probably our best chance. And Rui's been the secret sauce for them. One thing I had before we get to the power pole. And we say this every year, but I feel like it matters more than ever. I think about it a lot this year. The difference between being a good regular season team and being a good playoff team. Cause when we go into this power pole, there's some teams I don't know where to put, because obviously in April and May, I'm going to trust them more than some of the teams that are in the power pole. And there's some regular season teams, like a team like Toronto, if you have depth during the regular season, that's great. In a playoff series, I'd probably feel

• 19:44Bill Simmons?

  pretty good about going against them. But game to game, week to week, road trips, you want like a deeper team. Maybe the Celtics could be like that because their bench has been good. I don't know. But do you feel like this is a more pronounced chasm than ever between what do I trust when I'm watching here in the regular season versus in the playoffs, am I just going to feel differently about this team?

• 20:07Speaker 01

  Completely, because I think some of the teams that have been great stories and they've surprised us and it's been great. It's been refreshing because it gives you more teams to talk about, which is great for us. You know, give me more to dive into. Toronto, Phoenix, like teams like that, like being where they're at, that's great. And they kind of surprised us. But individually, when you start looking at some of these teams, and it's going to be interesting because I think we're going to talk about in the power pole, like some of these teams, like obviously we know who's, there's so several of these teams at the very, very top, like kind of know that, okay, these teams legitimately can make a deep run, go all the way, who knows?

• 20:39Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 20:40Speaker 01

  Then there's going to be that next group where you're going to, you're trying to analyze, like picturing them having to win multiple playoff series or even win one playoff series. And you start thinking about matchups. And now all of a sudden, some of these teams you realize like, I don't know if they're going to be able to win four times against some of those teams because there's no track record there. So there's a, there's an uncertainty about how some of these teams are going to handle that situation. I mean, even a team like Detroit, as great as they've been, truth is, they haven't won a playoff series.

• 21:13Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 21:14Speaker 01

  And to win a playoff series is a lot different than battling the Knicks, you know, giving them all they could handle last year. That's a lot different than finishing off those games, winning four times against a really good team. It's different. Now, look, they're not going to have to play a top tier team in the first round. So you would think home court advantage Detroit should be okay. Now they'll say, whoa, there you go. Now they've got a playoff series win under the belt. That that should make things a lot different. I'm talking about beating teams that can come close to looking you in the eye, right? That that's different. Winning four times against them when you've got no experience in doing that collectively and you've got a bunch of young guys, you don't know how certain guys are going to react when they get into that situation. And guys

• 21:57Speaker 01

  that are giving you that little burst and punch now and giving nice to help you. Well, it's a fine line between those same players having a 30% shooting series. And now it's like really tough, man. Those minutes that were so great in the regular season, it's harder now with particular groups because certain guys are really struggling in the playoffs for a variety of reasons. So that's why I think there is a lot of uncertainty with that second tier of teams that are trying to crack through and make us believe like they could be a conference finalist or a finalist. Like that next group beyond the top two or three, that's when it gets a lot more interesting, this conversation.

• 22:32Bill Simmons?

  Well, there's even a couple of teams in that 1B group where I watched, like the Celtics had a really interesting game against the Pistons last week. And one of the things that was happening was they were just like, we're just not going to guard Thompson.

• 22:45Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 22:46Bill Simmons?

  Good luck. Ironically, that's also happening in some of the Houston games where teams are going, yeah, we're just like, no, good luck. We're going to let him go. And in a playoff series, when you're playing the same team seven games, that's the stuff that starts pulsating. Like Detroit and the Celtic game found something against Garza. They just started attacking him. Not so coincidentally, like all of a sudden Amari Williams is in the Celtics rotation. Garza didn't play last night. Like, maybe he was hurt. I don't know. But it was one of those moments where it was like, shit, I don't know if we can play Garza in the playoffs here because Detroit's just like feasting on him in these five minutes. And that's the kind of stuff you tuck away for later. The other thing is like, when I think about teams like the Knicks, Minnesota, whoever, like, if you have a top eight player...

• 23:31Bill Simmons?

  I'm just, you're on my, I'm taking you seriously list, no matter how you're looking over this stretch. I do want to see you put together like one nice 15 to 20 game stretch, though, during the season, which I think we'll talk about the Clippers in a second, but like, the Clippers going 15 and 3 in 18 games is meaningful.

• 23:47Speaker 01

  Yeah, no kidding.

• 23:49Bill Simmons?

  Reclaim their corners.

• 23:51Speaker 01

  Still amazed at the number of conversations that I'm, that I'm having here over the last couple of weeks, whether in the industry or outside the industry, just like basketball fans that are friends of ours, right? They're just not remotely convinced that you better take notice, like, because they're not just like winning, you know, when you go, whatever they were, 6 and 21 at the start, I guess maybe people just completely think, I don't have to watch the Clippers anymore the rest of the year. We do, it's our job, so you're still paying attention, they start winning some games, you're like, okay, that's interesting. 15 and 3, 18 games in basically a, a five to six week period of time, when their defensive

• 24:31Speaker 01

  numbers have, have shifted to this extent, is something you have to pay attention to. They have held teams in that 18 game stretch 11 times to 105 points or less. 105 in today's NBA, right, is, is like 90 when I played, like, that's what it feels like. If you hold a team under 110 points, it's like, you know, wow, they really got after it tonight. They just did it 11 times in the last 18 games. And, and it reminds me of what they were doing last year defensively, when I, I called a few of their games, and I was so impressed with their ability to pressure the ball all over the floor and their length and their quickness to recover for each other. And of course, and Kawhi was healthy most of

• 25:12Speaker 01

  that time. They're back to playing that level defense, and they're getting incredible offensive years out of their two best players. So, how can you not notice? And it's like, it's also like, it's like a string of wins that they're getting. Like, these are some good teams that they've knocked off. So, I'm listening, I've got one eye on them at all times now. This ascension, and you think about what I'm talking about, they've only gotten to 10th. I mean, that's how far they were buried. You went 15 out of 18 and you're still 10th. That's where they were.

• 25:43Bill Simmons?

  They're still 13 to 1 to win the division. Yeah, their last 18, they're plus 8.9 per 100, they're fourth in the league. But the, you, you mentioned Kawhi. He's averaging, the last 18, he missed two, he played 16. He's averaging 32 in the, in the, in the games that he played. And he's 51, 43, 92, and looks like Kawhi. I mean, eye test wise, this is 2017 Kawhi, it looks like. So, anyway, we'll take a break and then we're going to go through the power poll because we've got a lot of stuff to cover. The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. It's the last call for football on FanDuel. Makes me so sad. One final Sunday, one last kickoff, the final chance to place

• 26:23Bill Simmons?

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• 27:07Bill Simmons?

  1-888-789-777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut. All right, so I separated in groups. We'll just rip through this group. I want to talk about one team, and if there's a team in this group you're excited about, flag it after. Number 30 is Washington. They have the worst net rate. They're minus 11, 1-9 in their last 10. I think they've settled into, we want to stink, we want to get a top four pick. Number 29, I have Milwaukee. This is no Giannis Milwaukee. He's not playing for another six weeks. I actually think their 2 through 12 is the worst 2 through 12 in the league. I want to get your take on that. I think, I don't think any other team in the league would trade their 2 through 12 for Milwaukee's 2 through 12.

• 27:54Speaker 01

  I mean, I think for that particular question, if I really wanted to just give you like definitive answer, I would probably need to right now pull up two through 12 on four or five different things. But my point is this, you're not crazy for throwing that into the conversation.

• 28:07Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 28:07Speaker 01

  I mean, look at the roster.

• 28:09Bill Simmons?

  It's brutal.

• 28:10Speaker 01

  It's, it's, it's brutal. It's, and, and, and, and you look at what's happening to them now, like when you combine the roster with now the level, like what they're dealing with psychologically, not having him. And the one differentiating factor for your team every night is having that force and not having that combined with that roster. I think you probably have put them appropriately where they belong as long as he's out.

• 28:35Bill Simmons?

  So they, the biggest wrinkle with them is they get the worst of the first pick between them and New Orleans. So in a weird way, if the, if the season goes south and they end up being one of the eight worst teams, it's not the worst thing in the world. The what's killed them is I don't think they could trade Giannis. Zach did a thing on his podcast yesterday with Mo about is this actually still okay that they can trade Giannis or did this make this impossible and not really landing either way? I'm more in the, I don't, I don't know who's trading for him with all this stuff you'd have to give up, not knowing if he's going to even be back in April. Plus he's had this injury multiple times. To me, it's a complete stay away. I'll revisit in the summer. Show me you're healthy. I can't see anyone doing that. Do you agree with that?

• 29:17Speaker 01

  I, I, first of all, that would be the approach I would take. Um, not, I'm not saying I wouldn't want to try to acquire Giannis Antetokounmpo, but with the number of times now that he's been dealing with this injury and me needing to see like this motivated Giannis in the summer, healthy Giannis in the summer. Yes, I think there are teams that you, you do what you have to to make a run at him. I kind of agree with the uncertainty right now of when you're going to see him again at full strength and the possibility, because you know, it's going to be tight then with the playoffs. Is he going to be coming back like forcing himself onto the court because he wants to make a run with some team? And does that mean he ends up re-injuring himself in the playoffs anyway? And you've given up a ton. Now, if you've got more of a longer term view and it's not just about trying to get

• 30:00Speaker 01

  it done this year, I don't know, maybe you do it anyway because he's just so intriguing because how dominant he is, and I think how highly motivated he would be with a change of scenery and what that could do to reinvigorate him. I, I would still think about it.

• 30:16Bill Simmons?

  I'm in a thought bubble list for you. Would you trade for anybody about to hit their mid 30s who is a big guy with a lot of miles in them with the, all the evidence that we've seen at this point? Would you give up the farm? What are the success stories here? Like even KG, when the Celtics got him in 08, and he's probably 31, he broke down a year later. Chris Webber, Dwight Howard, broke down a bunch of times. Go on Shaq started, he started to have the injuries in the mid 2000s. I would just get really nervous about trading for big guys with miles. And there's been a couple outliers. And then when you go smaller and you get to like the LeBron size, there's probably more success.

• 30:56Bill Simmons?

  But the taller guys, I don't know, I'd be really nervous to do it. This, to me, the Yanis, if they were like, hey, no, he's going to be back in late March. You should trade for him. It's like somebody offering you the nicest car ever. And it's like, it was just in the shop for the seventh time, but it's, it's going to be great. The mechanic said he fixed this one thing we have. You should get it. It'll be awesome.

• 31:17Speaker 01

  I'm staying in that garage. I'm looking at that car for a long time.

• 31:20Bill Simmons?

  Man, this is a nice car. How fast does it go?

• 31:25Speaker 01

  The only thing they're not gonna let you do is test drive it though. That's the problem. You just gotta, you gotta buy as is. It's an as is contract.

• 31:30Bill Simmons?

  They're showing you clips of the 2021 race that it won. It was going 220 miles an hour. It beat all these guys.

• 31:37Speaker 01

  Meanwhile, you're on the side like Googling Carfax, trying to get that report, you know, the commercial, the commercial with the cute fox that we see all the time. Like I would go into that website. What's that, you know? And yeah, so that's a good point, but I'm telling you, I mean, I'd, I'd, I'd be, I'd be looking at that car for a while. Trying to make up my mind. I'd have to sleep on that decision.

• 31:57Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. If you're Atlanta, if you've never been in a race.

• 31:59Speaker 01

  That's the thing.

• 32:00Bill Simmons?

  You're like, all right, maybe this is our one chance to get him. Okay.

• 32:05Bill Simmons?

  Number 28, Brooklyn. Number 27, Sacramento. They both basically have 12 wins. Number 26, Indiana, who I think is a noble 11 and 36 team.

• 32:15Speaker 01

  Man.

• 32:16Bill Simmons?

  I actually think they play hard and give a shit and they just don't have enough talent sadly.

• 32:20Speaker 01

  Has anybody, has any player, like, I don't know, earned more respect on an 11 win team than Pascal Siakam?

• 32:28Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 32:29Speaker 01

  Every night, and I watched the Pacers a lot just because, I don't know, the guys on that team, I'm kind of interested in, so I watched the Pacers a good amount.

• 32:37Bill Simmons?

  I like them too.

• 32:38Speaker 01

  And I love watching Siakam play.

• 32:40Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 32:40Speaker 01

  And I'm watching this guy, and if you had no idea, when you, when you turn it on to watch the game, you had no idea what their record was, what's going on, like, you're just like watching this guy that looks exactly like he did when he was playing for Toronto and they won a championship, exactly like he did last year, the last two years with Indiana, last year going to the finals, like, you don't know there's any difference in his demeanor, approach, effort, intensity, like, all, leadership, like, all of that stuff, and it's led to 11 wins, like, that's how decimated they've been, but I've got a lot of respect for the way he's carried himself this season.

• 33:13Bill Simmons?

  McConnell's another one, Nemhard, there's guys on that team that are still carrying themselves like they did last spring, and at some point, they're gonna have to take Pascal for a nice steak, and explain to him that his calf needs some maintenance, and he might need to take four to five weeks off, that the trainer was mildly concerned, and it's just, for the safety of everybody, we're just gonna have to sit you for a little bit and get you ready for next year. We're almost there with the Pacers, because this will be a miracle, you throw away one year, you get Halliburton back next year, and you could potentially get a top five pick.

• 33:45Speaker 01

  Here's the thing, here's the one thing I'll say about them.

• 33:48Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 33:49Speaker 01

  You think about how quickly they immediately reemerge on the scene of relevant teams as soon as they get Halliburton back, okay? They desperately need a five, and there's a list of them, there's eight or nine of them that are out there, some are more interesting than others, some I don't think you can get, but there's a list out there, and you can pull it up just about anywhere, of the number of centers that are like, kind of, at least their names come up, some I think it's absolutely pipe for you, you're never gonna get them, some I wouldn't want, and then there's a few, and you kind of go, man, if you can add that with giving up what they would have to give up to get it, and now, next year, you go in with Siakam and Halliburton and a five that fits your style, man, it's, that's

• 34:33Speaker 01

  something I think that they're gonna look hard at, and I'll be very surprised, actually, if they don't make a move before the trading deadline to try to acquire one of those centers.

• 34:42Bill Simmons?

  So you think they would put their number one pick on the table?

• 34:45Speaker 01

  I don't know if they'd put their number one pick. I think there's internal conversations that are probably taking place because that's that's, you know, beauty in the eye of the beholder. If you think that, for instance, you know, those top three picks, which a lot of people are talking about are absolute can't misses, the Bonsa Peterson boozer. If you think all three of those guys are, man, these are franchise guys and weren't going to be in that mix, you probably don't do that. If you think, hey, man, there's a chance we don't even get into the top three and we don't know that we love it after that, even though I think it's a good draft class and I think there's going to be even diamonds in the rough found probably, you know, 15 through 25, it always is. They would, does that young player, like, does that serve them?

• 35:27Speaker 01

  Well, if that's going to take a few years for him to hit a stride when they were so close a year ago, as opposed to, I'm not talking about picking up a 34-year-old center. If you can get a guy-

• 35:35Bill Simmons?

  Talking about like Jaren Jackson, like, and Memphis is like, we'll discuss Jaren Jackson, but we want your unprotected first.

• 35:41Speaker 01

  Even a guy, even a guy like, you know, a lower level, maybe a lower caliber player than that, like a Nick Claxton, like somebody like that, like that's young, that runs, that, that you don't have to run plays for, that can defend, that will fit your style and pace because he's got stamina. Like a guy like that, if you're talking about giving up, not the number one pick, if you're talking about giving up something else on your roster, that they would be, it would be intriguing to them either because it could be a salary dump or it's a-

• 36:09Bill Simmons?

  Or you're doing top five protected, like, we'll trade whatever, but we need top five protection or you get our next year's thing. Yeah, we'll see. Cause what I like about them and the Celtics losing their best guys, but somehow keeping some sort of infrastructure, what they had last year, the Celtics did it more successfully. But when you watch Indiana, like, they don't stink. Like, like, they might be overmatched some nights, but they, they do play like they did last year. So that I have them 26. New Orleans, I have 25. They're 12 and 36. All these teams have 12 or 11 wins that we just rattled off.

• 36:47Bill Simmons?

  I want to flag New Orleans really quickly though, because I think they're a sneaky important trade machine team. Not just because Zion, I think every team in the league probably has had a Zion meeting at this point. Let's just, let's just do a one hour. Bob, Bob is going to do a Zion presentation for us. We're going to go through the pros and cons. Like they're all doing it. Murphy, they've tried to make it seem like they wouldn't trade him. I refuse to believe that. I think they're playing it smartly, but if somebody's going to give them the Bain Bridges offer, there's, it would be irresponsible not to do it. But then they have Missy at 3.3. They have Siddiq Bay at 6'1" and 6'4" the next two years. They have Alvarado at 4'5". They

• 37:27Bill Simmons?

  have Looney at 8, expiring. They have some fun little levers to push for contenders. I, like somebody, I look like Alvarado. There's five teams that he would just be fun on in the playoffs, right? But you put him on the Pistons and he would just be like, I am rolling up my sleeves. Who are we fighting? You know? So I don't know what they're going to do, but I feel like we'll be hearing from them.

• 37:49Speaker 01

  And Missy's also one of those guys on that shortlist of centers that would be intriguing for Indiana.

• 37:53Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 37:54Speaker 01

  I think, well, and especially with Derek Queen there, you know, they, obviously, Missy becomes completely expendable in that situation. Here's the thing, like, I agree with you what you said about Trey Murphy. I mean, look, I love him, but, but I don't know, you know, they, they want to make it seem like there's nothing that you can offer me that would get him. I don't know if I believe that. I know there's like, when it comes to Zion, like, and it seemed like the stuff they put out there is like, no, no, we're, you know, we're committed to Zion. I don't know that I would be willing to give up anything to get him. I just, I'd be far too concerned to give up a lot of stuff of value for Zion Williamson with his track record. And the, the part of his game that drives me nuts, because he's such a unique force and talent, entertaining as well. How's a guy get six rebounds a game?

• 38:37Bill Simmons?

  I love this. This is one of my corners. I mean, I hardly started this. You can't get two rebounds a quarter.

• 38:45Speaker 01

  Rebounds a game when you're built like that with that kind of athleticism.

• 38:47Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 38:48Speaker 01

  There's one reason and one reason only. You don't go often enough. It's that simple. It's that simple. And particularly for Zion Williamson, particularly, look at his career.

• 38:59Speaker 01

  He had 2.7 offensive rebounds his first two seasons in the league. You know, obviously not a ton of games, but he's never been since then like over 2.5. To me, that's a guy that should be three and a half to four offensive rebounds a game. And if you watch him play, the reason it doesn't happen. Zion's that guy that if there's a shot by somebody else and he happens to be anywhere from the third hash up the lane to the foul line, you're 12 to 15 feet from the rim. Very rarely does Zion Williamson go. He starts immediately backpedaling. And it's so that it just tell you it's a mentality. Because the mentality is if I go and don't get it, damn, that's a long run to the other end of the floor. And, and, and that's, that's, that's the impression I get.

• 39:43Speaker 01

  As talented as he is and as just like unique in what he can do and how difficult he is to deal with when he's healthy and playing right. That has always bothered me. I've never understood. I think he is one of the most underachieving rebounders in the NBA. And it's, it's, it doesn't make sense to me because there's no way that guy should not be getting a ton of double-digit rebounds games. You make double-digit rebounds games? He's, think about this. Double-digit rebounds game. Now, last two he's had 10 and 11 against San Antonio and Memphis. You have to go back to October 24th to find his last 10 rebound game. That's incredible to me.

• 40:29Speaker 01

  When you look at a guy like Josh Hart, right? It's like that doesn't make any sense. And it's so, it's just like that combined with the injury history. I'm just like, I don't know if I'd want any part of it.

• 40:40Bill Simmons?

  You also made the case why you would want a part of it if you felt like you had a good team with a good coach and a good infrastructure. And you could kind of shove him in the correct directions. That's how you talk yourself into this.

• 40:50Speaker 01

  I got news for you. You could put him on any team in history with whatever direction you want. And if that guy doesn't want to run to the rim from 12 feet when someone takes a corner three, he ain't never gonna. Like, that's not, that's not about infrastructure and leadership in the locker room and like accountability. That guy either wants to. He doesn't and he has now played 240, it's unbelievable, actually, only 246 games in six years. It's kind of incredible. He's got 246 games under his belt and I don't recall really.

• 41:21Bill Simmons?

  So you're going with that? He is who he is. Interesting. Well, if you cut, if you cut him a mixtape of VJ Edgecombe and Hugo Gonzalez being in the corner, seeing somebody about to shoot and veering toward the rim at full speed to just see if they can get a hand on anything. Maybe that, maybe the light bulb would click for him. Hey, you could also do this. Watch how these guys just move because somebody else was shooting. They might be able to dunk it or get a rebound, tip it.

• 41:49Speaker 01

  Listen, I would.

• 41:50Bill Simmons?

  The ship has sailed, you think?

• 41:51Speaker 01

  I pray for that day because of how much I've enjoyed watching Zion Williamson play when he's healthy. It's just a long track record of that one particular thing. You can be a real difference maker on the glass. It's a major, majorly important quality to bring, finishing off defensive possessions, to giving your team extra possessions on a given night. They're so critical to do those things on nights when maybe you don't shoot well. For him, I'm also thinking, you get another two, three offensive rebounds some nights, that's, that's a guaranteed probably with his quickness off his feet. That's another, you know, four to six points and plus some of those might be and ones, like just from your own production. You could take your scoring average up five points if you just

• 42:35Speaker 01

  wanted to go more. And so that's, that was, that's my big concern with Zion. His name's always going to come up because he's so intriguing and I just think we're six years in and I think, you know, when you're on a team that's got the worst record in the NBA and you've been out a lot again this year and the rebounding numbers are what they are. I think add all of that up. I don't know. I don't know.

• 42:55Bill Simmons?

  See, that's, the case you just made is my case for why I'm not crazy about Jaren Jackson. He's 5.7 rebounds a game.

• 43:02Speaker 01

  Let's, you're 100%.

• 43:04Bill Simmons?

  You can't get to a quarter?

• 43:05Speaker 01

  And I've said that, I've said that on the air when I've called Memphis games. I haven't, now I haven't called a New Orleans game this year for obvious reasons, but.

• 43:12Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 43:13Speaker 01

  We did call a Memphis game and it's, it's the same thing. I think the same way, like. Why are his rebounding numbers not better? Now, the one thing though, I will say this. He does do this and this could cost him maybe some defensive rebounds.

• 43:27Bill Simmons?

  Challenging.

• 43:28Speaker 01

  Exactly right. When you're last line of defense and you're trying to get most things at the rim, you are bypassing opportunities to rebound by doing that.

• 43:37Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that's fair.

• 43:37Speaker 01

  But here's the thing, a guy like Jaren Jackson and Zion, and I'm not sure if I watched the New Orleans game tomorrow night. Does Zion, is Zion on the inside slot every, every opponent's free throw? Is Jaren Jackson, how does that not free a game?

• 43:51Bill Simmons?

  Westbrook figured that out 12 years ago.

• 43:53Speaker 01

  Right there, you're halfway to their current total, like.

• 43:56Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 43:56Speaker 01

  You know what I mean? It's like, how does that, how does that not translate to us? So I agree. Jaren Jackson has always scratched my head, but the all around game, you know, the all around amount of energy he's expending defensively. I think I'll, I'll give him a little bit more of a pass than Zion.

• 44:11Bill Simmons?

  You know what I would say, Tim Legler? Some guys are just good at rebounding. Even when you play like pickup or when you played at high school or in your case, college and the pros, some guys just have a knack for it. Josh Hart, he's six foot three. He just goes and gets rebounds. He knows where they're going to go. Derrick White's really good at it. Weirdly as a guard. Just can study the patterns. He's good instincts for it. Some guys just suck at it. Uh, finishing the dregs, Utah 24 and Memphis. 23 at 18 and 26. I just don't think it's going to happen for them and we can move to the next group. This group is a one team group. It's called panic time.

• 44:50Bill Simmons?

  And I put Orlando in here at 22, even though they have a winning record. Their net rating is minus 0.6. Their last 25 games legs. They're 11 and 14. They're 25th in net rating.

• 45:06Bill Simmons?

  And I test wise, I have a real problem with this team and we talked about. I don't want to throw Jamal Mosley under the bus, but we talked about some of the great coaches we've added. This is a team that to me does not look well coached. I don't know what they're doing. I don't understand it. I don't, I think the effort comes and goes. They just seem like the ball finds the wrong person at the wrong times and the wrong spots of the game. And I think they're incredibly frustrating to watch.

• 45:33Speaker 01

  Here's what, here's what, here's why I can't, I don't know if I can go with the coaching thing for this reason. Last year, and I didn't, again, I haven't, I called an Orlando game this year. To see them in person is definitely different for me as an analyst. I pick up on a lot of stuff that I can't see when I'm watching on TV at home. But look, I mean, they just lost four straight games by a total of 75 points, I believe. You know, Wagner's out again. They barely, him and Carroll barely have had any chance to establish rhythm. But here's why the coaching thing would be bothersome to me. If like that were true, because last year, I had as much respect for the way that that team competed and defended as anybody in the league. I mean, when I watched the Magic play, and I watched them,

• 46:17Speaker 01

  and I called games where they only had one of their stars, and they're going up against like teams that were like top five teams in the NBA, and they're in position to win these games, and in some cases did. And one particular stands out when they broke, Cleveland had that long winning streak mid-season, like 15 games, and they beat them in Cleveland on a Sunday ABC game.

• 46:38Bill Simmons?

  That's a good game. I remember that one.

• 46:39Speaker 01

  Oh, it was incredible game. And they didn't, they, their want to was so impressive. And so when I see that in a team, like, I'm gonna go ahead and most times, and I'm gonna give the coach credit in that situation. Right? Now, now, some of it, maybe just internally, certain guys just play hard. They just show up, play great. You got the right guys in your building. But, you know, we can't just dismiss that if a team's playing hard. If we're gonna beat up a coach when the team doesn't look like they're playing hard, if they are playing hard, I'm always gonna give credit to the coach. He's establishing some sort of culture in there. His message is resonating with these guys. To a certain extent, they're buying in for them to play that hard a year ago.

• 47:18Bill Simmons?

  But can that fade away, though?

• 47:20Speaker 01

  I mean, it can, but it would be surprising to do that from one year to the next when they've had, you know, their top guys have missed as much time as they have. It's almost like a built-in reason why it's a struggle some nights. But, look, when you lose four games the way they just did, and look, Memphis, Charlotte right now, who could put up numbers on you, and Cleveland could put up numbers. Those aren't like horrific losses. But it's, you know, it's a tough stretch, man. Three of those four were at home. And you're not really in the game in the last six minutes?

• 47:50Bill Simmons?

  It's alarming. That's why, that's why I brought it up and put them 22. The only thing I could say for-

• 47:56Speaker 01

  I think panic time's a good place to put them. I think that's a good, good way to sum it up. Like they, put it this way. It's go time. Like if you're going to hit another gear.

• 48:05Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 48:06Speaker 01

  It's gonna have to start now.

• 48:07Bill Simmons?

  But what's funny is I thought that was gonna be like a week and a half ago. I was looking at their schedule. They were like, I don't know, 23 and 18 or something. It was like, okay, if, if we're gonna hear from this team, it's gonna start right around now. And it went the other way. Their best five is still plus 18 per 100, I guess is the one good thing about them, but I, they're almost like a take off the league pass team for me. Like I don't want them on a TV anymore. I don't, I don't like watching them and make me mad. All right. Next category, four teams, the play in dreamers. Starting with Dallas, 19 and 27. I feel like they're better than 19 and 27, especially with the injury luck they've had, but I, on the right night, if you catch them, I feel like they can hang with just about anybody.

• 48:50Bill Simmons?

  I wanted to mention, uh, Max Christie.

• 48:54Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 48:54Bill Simmons?

  I think has officially reached. You're insulting him if you don't mention him when you recap the Luca trade and you just say Luca for AD. I think Christie's become a legitimate asset. He's 22. He's put together two months now where he's like 16 a game and like 45% from three. He can handle the ball. I thought he was coming on a little for the Lakers last year, but, um, ironically has become a bigger asset for them than Anthony Davis. So just wanted to mention that.

• 49:21Speaker 01

  That's the perfect context and perspective to put him in because you're a hundred percent right. He was not even mentioned when that trade went down.

• 49:29Bill Simmons?

  No, it was like, it was like a set of steak knives.

• 49:31Speaker 01

  No, no doubt. And I knew how much, how much JJ valued him because we had had conversations about him. Like that was tough for him to part with him. But you know, there was just so much focus on, you know, arguably is this the worst trade in the history of team sports?

• 49:48Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 49:48Speaker 01

  You know, he's gonna get lost in all of that conversation, particularly AD went down right away. And look, it takes a, at the time, like a role player, a little bit longer even to get comfortable when a trade like that happens. Cause your touches are infrequent, like your shots, your little bit, kind of feeling things out. And now you look at the way this guy's playing now, and every night now, you're expecting him, you know, his, his floor now is like, you know, a double digit scoring night. And then like, his average game is like 16, and then like, his ceiling is now in the twenties.

• 50:20Bill Simmons?

  And he fits with Flag, which is the only thing that really, really matters here. He actually makes sense on a basketball court with Cooper Flag, which is all you're trying to find out this year.

• 50:29Speaker 01

  And you're right, by the way, they're better than their record, I think, a lot of it being this. Like, if, if Christie's playing this well from the very beginning, if Cooper Flag didn't have to take, you know, some time, you know, at 18 years old to try to, you know, figure out the league a little bit, they would be closer to 500 than they are right now. It's been a great story, and they play hard as hell every night.

• 50:49Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they're annoying to play. You can just see it. You could see the other teams. The thing with Flag, like, he's not shooting the three well at all. I think he's 28%. But everything else, like, when you consider how young he is, and he's at the same age Kobe was when Kobe came in, and, or maybe he's like six months older than Kobe. KG, when KG came in, LeBron, when LeBron came in, um, you just know this is the floor, and it's a really good floor, right?

• 51:13Speaker 01

  He's so good with the mid-range.

• 51:14Bill Simmons?

  This is the worst he's ever gonna be right now.

• 51:17Speaker 01

  I did, that's, that's a great point, and that's why I look, you know, I, I, I use the expression can't miss with him coming out, and I, and I kind of felt the same about him. Before he got to Duke, I'm like, no, no, this guy, like, because he's got a nasty competitive edge to him, even though he's got like a, like a, that little boy smile on his face. Like, he has a meanness to him and a toughness for being challenged for the last, like, five years on, on, in the high profile, like, youth circuit into Duke. Like, he was challenged, and every night he took to court, people were coming for him, and he just wanted, um, you know, he wanted all of it. So, and you kind of knew, but man, is he better with the mid-range pull-ups and push shots.

• 51:59Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 51:59Speaker 01

  In that 10-foot area, these really difficult shots, and they go to him to decide games. It's kind of incredible, really, what he's been able to do in the fourth quarter of close games. So, man, how much better will this guy be even in two months? It's incredible.

• 52:13Bill Simmons?

  Quick question. So they're 19 and 27. If they had Kyrie this whole year, from game one, what's their record?

• 52:22Speaker 01

  Well, definitely.

• 52:23Bill Simmons?

  How many wins is he worth, you think?

• 52:25Speaker 01

  They're definitely over 500.

• 52:26Bill Simmons?

  I think they're, honestly, I think they're like 30 and 16.

• 52:29Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 52:29Bill Simmons?

  I think he would have swung like 12 games.

• 52:32Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, look, so you're talking about 11 more wins than they have right now?

• 52:37Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 52:37Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, look, Kyrie's that great, but again, you know.

• 52:40Bill Simmons?

  The end of the game stuff he would have brings in. Yeah, I'm just saying, healthy Kyrie from game one with this exact roster. I just think he's exactly what they need. That's why I'm kind of hoping he comes back because if you put him in with everything I'm watching, I'm like, I'm kind of interested in this team.

• 52:55Speaker 01

  I'd probably take it as far as flipping the numbers, 19 to 27.

• 52:58Bill Simmons?

  27, 19.

• 52:59Speaker 01

  27 and 19. That's probably where I would go.

• 53:01Bill Simmons?

  So Dallas 21, I have Atlanta at 20. I don't want to talk about them. I can't quit them. Every time I'm out, they have some sort of fun game. Forget it. 19 Portland. This is interesting. So they're 23 and 24. Their last 15, they're 10 and 5, where they beat Houston twice, San Antonio, the Lakers and Atlanta. They had this crazy Billups situation to start the year, plus Scoot Henderson got hurt. Holiday got hurt like three weeks in. I have no idea how they're 500, and I don't really know what I would do if I was their GM, because you could argue they should be a seller.

• 53:39Bill Simmons?

  You could also argue, they say, like, I got an email from a reader, a listener named Dylan, who said, Ja to Portland, why not? Why not Scoot and expirings, which they have the expirings, Scoot Thible and Rob Williams for Ja? Like, why not? And I was sitting, and I was reading the email going, yeah, why not? Why not roll the dice, see what you have? Maybe you're a buyer. You could also go the other way and start selling off some players and trying to tank. What would you do?

• 54:07Speaker 01

  I mean, that sounds a little bit low for Ja Morant, but at the same time, his market value is just taking.

• 54:11Bill Simmons?

  Nobody wants him.

• 54:12Speaker 01

  Plunge. It's, it's, and that's just like, you know, everything you're hearing is like, it's really, it's really, you know, becoming absolutely buyer's market. Because here's the thing, even if you think, you know, man, you know, we, it might, we might not have to give up that much to get him. And you kind of come to terms that like, we're not giving up anything we really want to get Ja Morant. You then have to think about incorporating him into what you have going on with the players you do like.

• 54:38Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 54:38Speaker 01

  And what does that look like? And that's a whole nother conversation. Where with some of these guys, maybe it's injuries, right? But it's not like that. Like, how's he gonna fit with these guys? How hard is he to coach? Like, all of that stuff. Some guys, just like injuries, ah, do we, do we, you know, roll the dice on him?

• 54:53Bill Simmons?

  Is he gonna like that it's Abdi's team and not his and things like that?

• 54:56Speaker 01

  Exactly. And look, if you're Portland now, I mean, some, some part of me would think like, what have you got to lose?

• 55:03Bill Simmons?

  That's kind of how I felt. I, on the one hand, there's a lot of red flags. And it's, as you said, a buyer's market for Ja. On the other hand, he's 26. Like, you have a chance to get a guy who, three years ago, would have been like number seven in my trade value column. Call him, you're just stealing him. And he hasn't, seems like relatively healthy. He keeps having these small injuries. Why not? I don't know. I think about it.

• 55:29Speaker 01

  There's probably two or three teams in the league that I would put in a category of, I mean, come on, what the hell have you got to lose? When you really look at who they have and what ultimately their ceiling is, you kind of look at their roster, Portland's, and Abdi has been incredible, but this, this is, I mean, Abdi, Abdi, Abdi is not gonna average 32 next year.

• 55:47Bill Simmons?

  No.

• 55:48Speaker 01

  You know what I mean? He's playing great. And I actually think, I actually think the guy's got a great case to be an All-Star. With what he's done in there and, you know, how well they've played for the last month.

• 55:57Bill Simmons?

  He's definitely an All-Star for me.

• 55:58Speaker 01

  He's gotta be. He's gotta be. But it's funny, I, I, you know, just, I'm always constantly looking at how people view it. And I've kind of put mine out there on, on the, um, the All City Podcast. I put my reserves out there. And I gave him a spot. But it's, if you look around at where people are speculating, it's not like it hasn't like a guarantee. I think he's pretty close.

• 56:16Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 56:16Speaker 01

  26 and like, you know, seven and seven.

• 56:18Bill Simmons?

  Nobody watches Portland. Well, the other Ja team is number 18 on my list, the Chicago Bulls, who are 23 and 23. The only reason I mention them is they have expirings they could put together, you know, they, maybe they could put Kobe White in it. But their style of play, I actually would think would be pretty fun for him. You know, it's basically balls to the wall. They're going up and down. The ball's constantly moving. People are just attack, attack, attack. Billy Donovan.

• 56:46Speaker 01

  I like that one a lot too.

• 56:47Bill Simmons?

  I don't know. I don't mind that one.

• 56:48Speaker 01

  Again, no, I really like that one because again, there are limitations on their roster that are not going to change. You know what I mean? It's not like they've got that young guy that was a top five pick, you know, in the last couple of years that isn't ready now, but you're like, man, this is what we're going to be building around. This franchise player. Now you're adding Ja to that? No, I wouldn't do that. That they don't have that. So that that team has like a finite ceiling. And so Ja Morant, yeah, now, you know, would Billy Donovan want that? I don't know. I don't know. You know, if he'd want to sign up.

• 57:23Bill Simmons?

  Does he want to go 40 and 42 for the next nine years or like at some point?

• 57:29Speaker 01

  No, I hear you.

• 57:30Bill Simmons?

  I just want to take a swing somewhere.

• 57:31Speaker 01

  Hey, listen, at least, and I was there the other night. Um, I was in the building for the, you know, the Derrick Rose game when he retired his jersey. I'm thinking to myself, if somebody's going to replicate some of those highlights, that's the guy.

• 57:42Bill Simmons?

  Ja Morant, right.

• 57:43Speaker 01

  That's the guy.

• 57:43Bill Simmons?

  All right. One more break and then we're going to do the rest of the list. And now it's time for today's with the assist segment presented by State Farm. In basketball, the best players don't just go it alone. They lean on teammates, coaches, even fans to push them to be better. And we've seen some pretty iconic assists over the years. As a Celtics fan, um, probably the assist team I was the most afraid of was Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in the eighties, especially as Magic got better and better. Kareem got older and older. They had a little flip when Magic came to the league. Kareem was probably the best player in the league or one of the best two or three. And then by the time we got to the mid eighties, Kareem was older. Magic was becoming one of the two or three best players in the league, but they still figured out how to work together.

• 58:26Bill Simmons?

  1985 finals famously, Kareem just took over the finals, killed the Celtics, wins the finals MVP. 14 years after the first time he won. Two years later, they win again. Guess who wins? Magic Johnson. Like basketball, life is easier with great assists, like the way those two guys helped each other. State Farm is here to dish one your way. They're not just an insurance company. They're a teammate who's on your bench, ready to listen, assist and help you get the right coverage when it matters most. State Farm with the assist coverage options.

• 58:57Bill Simmons?

  Are selected by the customer. Availability and eligibility vary by state. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. Excitement is in the air. That's right. It's the start of NBA season. I can't wait to get together with friends, share some Michelob Ultras and watch Tip Off. Plus, as the official beer sponsor of the NBA, Michelob Ultra is getting you closer to the action with experiences that make you feel like you're courtside to actual courtside tickets. Enter now for a chance to win at michelobultra.com/courtside. Michelob Ultra Courtside 26 to 27. No purchase necessary. Open to U.S. residents 21 plus. Begins on October 1st, 2026. Ends on June 30th, 2027. Multiple entry periods. See official rules at michelobultra.com/courtside

• 59:40Bill Simmons?

  for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes and details. This episode is brought to you by Viori. When it comes to clothes that score high in both comfort and style, Viori is my MVP. Sunday performers joggers. Oh yeah. They have the perfect, I could watch a game and then go out to dinner vibe. And the Meta pant, that's my number one. I need to look like I tried option. Get 20% off your first purchase at viori.com/ simmons and discover the versatility of Viori clothing. Exclusions apply. Visit the website for full terms and conditions. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Football has a play for just about everything. And whether it's a flea flicker or a tush push, you need a plan that fits your unique situation. That's why State Farm takes the time to get to know you so they can help personalize coverage for your life

• 1:00:25Bill Simmons?

  and for your budget. Now that's a solid game plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. The fork in the rotors. Number 17 Golden State, number 16 Miami. I would love to punt on talking about either of those teams if that's okay.

• 1:00:39Speaker 01

  I'm totally fine with that. I talk, I talk.

• 1:00:41Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:00:43Speaker 01

  Yeah, I'm good with that.

• 1:00:45Bill Simmons?

  Number 15, I have not had enough to say. This group is called the wild card. The Charlotte Hornets now 19 and 28. In their last 25, they're 13 and 12. Their best four guys with Diabate plus 26.5 per 100. It's been exciting to watch. Zach Lowe and I have been fighting about them since December. I had him on my podcast. We did league pass rankings. I had them sixth. He mocked me. He made fun of me. He said, what are you thinking? And I'm like, I'm, I'm buying whatever's going on there. I like that team. LaMelo came back and started to look like LaMelo. And then this Diabate piece.

• 1:01:25Bill Simmons?

  And now this team has, has, they've had, they have some real wins. They went to the West Coast and they had one of those West Coast trips where it was like, wow, they could go 0-7. This could be a disaster. Fought through it, put a couple of wins up. Their only stinker was a game you did last week. You probably saw their worst game of the last couple of weeks, unfortunately, but give me your Charlotte thoughts.

• 1:01:45Speaker 01

  Well, that's obviously where I was gonna go first. So I'm the same. Every, my guilty pleasure, bad team. That's the way I've described them. And they started to become like a little bit more than like bad team, like, you know? And I, but I liked watching them. They're fun. So here you go. They're, they're on our national TV schedule.

• 1:02:00Bill Simmons?

  This is it. Charlotte party.

• 1:02:01Speaker 01

  Wait, somebody asked me when, you know, somebody asked me walking in the building, like, were you here last year to call a game? I said, I, the last time I was in this building, I think I was guarding Dell Curry. I said, so I don't know, you know, haven't been here. And actually ironically, they, they announced that night at the game that Dell Curry is gonna have his jersey retired, which is a very, very cool thing. But, so here we go. I'm excited. We, we all were. Green, myself, Richard, we sit down, ready to do the game. We did a, we did a feature with Tom Kinnipel before the game. We broke down some of his off-ball movements and stuff. It's really, it's really exciting. And then they scored 32 points in the first half. And, and I think LaMelo was one for 15 in the game, over 10 from the three.

• 1:02:45Bill Simmons?

  They just stunk.

• 1:02:46Speaker 01

  Now, look, they, they had a horrible night, but at, at same time, it's like, okay, you didn't really show me anything. And I, you know, I don't think I had anything to do with national TV being in the building. I just don't think that's gonna affect guys that much or anything like that.

• 1:02:59Bill Simmons?

  I think that was a little bit. That was like their biggest game of the year and they stunk.

• 1:03:03Speaker 01

  Maybe a little.

• 1:03:03Bill Simmons?

  And they haven't looked like that for two months. That was easily the worst game they played.

• 1:03:07Speaker 01

  During the coaches interview, Charles Lee walks out of the room and the last thing he said as he was walking out of the room, because we were like, he basically turned to us and was like, man, you know, I, I hope, I hope these guys are ready for it. Like, you know, like, it was a big night. Turns out they weren't. But so I've obviously been watching the last three since. And they're averaging like 125 a game in the last three games, which is what they were doing to everybody prior to that. Their wins, they have their most. The strangest list of like, strong resume wins over the last month, right? Smoked Oklahoma City.

• 1:03:37Bill Simmons?

  Killed them.

• 1:03:38Speaker 01

  City, beat the Lakers, like, pretty easily. And all of a sudden, like, you're looking at this team, you're like, man, this team is like, you better be ready to guard them.

• 1:03:47Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:03:48Speaker 01

  And so, look, I'm with you, I'm with you, and they've, I give them credit, they had that game, and they turned right around and played three great games and put up numbers. That, that told me more about them than the one bad game that we called.

• 1:04:02Bill Simmons?

  There's an eye test thing with them. The guys make sense together when you're watching it. I, I mean, a canip will make sense with anybody. I just think he would fit in with any lineup, but I also like Miller. I think Bridges has been good this year. LaMelo is the one I could never get there with. I talked to Ed Khan on the podcast a couple of weeks ago and, and was just saying, like, this is the most fun I've had watching him. There's an arrogance in a good way about him sometimes, especially at the end of games. I used to say this a long time ago about Carmelo, where he wasn't the best player in the league or one of the best players, but when he played LeBron and Wade, he thought he was on their level.

• 1:04:39Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:04:39Bill Simmons?

  And sometimes you need that. Paul Pierce was like that for Boston. He was like.

• 1:04:42Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:04:43Bill Simmons?

  He thought he was as good as those guys, and that's all that matters. I think when LaMelo goes against these teams, like, he's like, finally, my peers, finally, my peer Shay Gilgis Alexander. Meanwhile, LaMelo's like, you know, never been even in round one of the playoffs, but he thinks that. And I think there's an energy and a, and a confidence with them offensively.

• 1:05:03Speaker 01

  Well, yeah, the thing is, even that night, by the way, if I'm, you know, giving full disclosure, that was the best, um, individual big man defensive game I've seen all year that Mobley played in that game.

• 1:05:14Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:05:14Speaker 01

  And, and so, and they still ended up getting it within six in the fourth quarter.

• 1:05:20Bill Simmons?

  Thought they were gonna come back.

• 1:05:21Speaker 01

  Yeah, despite, despite how poorly they played, give them some credit. They were in the game, it was just one of the lowest scoring games we're gonna see all year, and Mobley was unbelievable in the game, contributed to their offensive woes, but, like I said, I, I care more about what they've done since then than, than just one night where they didn't play well.

• 1:05:37Bill Simmons?

  So.

• 1:05:39Bill Simmons?

  Would you do anything if you were them? We got the trade deadline coming up and they have a slew of picks and some good ones. Like they have Golden State's pick this year, I think. They have a top two from Dallas, top two protected and 27 from Dallas. They have things to trade. I mean, the smart word would be like, let's just have a good time, enjoy this. Maybe we'll make the play in. But then I look around the East and you think like, man, maybe they could just kind of move around the edges there and grab somebody like on a cheap price, some, some veteran shooter. Like some sort of like stretch four that can guard some people. There's things they need.

• 1:06:15Speaker 01

  They do, and there's, yeah, they do. And even as well as they've played, as fun as they are, they're, they're still like, obviously because they've got 11 players, 23 and under.

• 1:06:25Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:06:26Speaker 01

  Okay, there's a maturity thing with them sometimes. So you go, okay, well, that'll just come with time, maybe. But maybe we can expedite that by bringing in the right piece, a guy that's got a little bit more seasoning on him. That's maybe in his upper twenties.

• 1:06:40Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:06:40Speaker 01

  That can bring that to, to this group. So I would be looking if I were them, yeah, I would be.

• 1:06:45Bill Simmons?

  I'm glad we agree. Next group is the Enigma. This is one team, the Philadelphia 76ers who are 24 and 21. And on Thursday night, they beat Houston in overtime. And it was the most impressive Eastern team performance I saw all season. The Embiid was great. I thought Houston played well. And the size and speed of Philadelphia was alarming. And on my thread with Sal and House and Hench, where we always talk about NBA futures. I was like, do we have to start thinking about Sixers? East futures? Cause it was still a pretty good price. And then all of them like, come on, Embiid's going to get hurt. And that's where we landed where it's like, we can't trust this because we don't trust Embiid.

• 1:07:28Bill Simmons?

  Meanwhile, Embiid in his last 14 is 29 and eight.

• 1:07:31Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:07:31Bill Simmons?

  But then you watch them on the Knicks on Saturday. Did you do that game or did you do the other game?

• 1:07:36Speaker 01

  Uh, we didn't do, I didn't do the.

• 1:07:37Bill Simmons?

  You didn't do either, okay.

• 1:07:38Speaker 01

  The other one.

• 1:07:39Bill Simmons?

  So Embiid, um, in that game, and you saw the weakness they have is those energy. Like the Knicks are like a pain in the ass. They rebound, they crash the boards. And that's, I think, what could sink the Sixers in the series.

• 1:07:52Bill Simmons?

  I don't really understand the Embiid thing right now because when you watch him, it only seems like one of his legs work and he only occasionally has explosiveness, but he's getting all the shots that he wants and he seems relevant. He'll fall down once a game and you think the season's over and then he gets up. I don't really understand it, but it's way better than I thought where we were in October when we were thinking this was like Andrew Bynum, right? So at least that's a win. What do you see from Philly? Do you, how high is your ceiling for them in the building?

• 1:08:21Speaker 01

  You cannot dismiss their chances to make a legitimate run at the Eastern Conference.

• 1:08:26Bill Simmons?

  That's how I feel. I hate it, but I feel that way.

• 1:08:29Speaker 01

  Yeah. And I called, like the week before that, I called back to back games Philly, Cleveland. It was weird. I was there for, you know, Wednesday, Friday was same matchup.

• 1:08:37Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:08:38Speaker 01

  And it's funny, we're talking about his jumping, his lack of explosiveness, and I've been kind of talking about that, but to see it in person, he had an offensive rebound in that game. He, he, he got it. He was right under the rim. He got it. And like, you know, go back a few years, healthy Embiid, MVP Embiid, he's probably going to gather, like swing his shoulders a little bit, go up and just, just dunk on whoever's in front of him.

• 1:08:59Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:08:59Speaker 01

  He bent his knees and he went to jump and I called it a toddler jump, you know, because like I have a four-year-old and when he was learning how to jump and he was like two, you know, he bent his knees and he'd go to jump, but he wouldn't leave the ground at all. It was just like nailed to the floor. It was the weirdest thing. He, he literally tried to jump and he only got as high as his tiptoes and it Mobley blocked it and they went the other way. And I was like, man, man. And even on the defensive end, like those incredible plays where he covers block to block to get a shot at the rim or trail a guard all the way to the rim that turned a corner on him and it smacked it off the glass. Like those are rare to nonexistent now, and yet he's putting up the numbers you're talking about because his shooting touch defies

• 1:09:43Speaker 01

  everything I know about, like, you know, biomechanics. There's no way a dude that big should have that kind of a shooting touch. He's that talented of a shot maker. He's always going to put up numbers if he gets touches and plays minutes. So he's giving them that. Now that other part.

• 1:09:59Bill Simmons?

  Wait, can I stop you on that for one second?

• 1:10:01Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:10:02Bill Simmons?

  I'm trying to think of somebody who, somebody else who came into the league as one thing.

• 1:10:08Bill Simmons?

  And 10 years later is a completely different thing, right? He comes into the league and he's just like, oh my God, this is one of the great big man athletes we've ever seen. This is like, this looks like young Shaq almost like, holy shit, where's this going? And then 12 years later, he's on one leg and makes every shot he takes, it seems like, and all of them don't even hit the rim. It's like, how did we, how did this guy emerge from what I remember from like the Kansas season and all that? So it's just, I think a bizarre evolution. I don't remember anything like it.

• 1:10:38Speaker 01

  It's, no, it's incre- it's incre- look, I'll put it this way. It's, it's nuts because you know, on one hand, you're always, we're always constantly scrutinizing his injuries and like all that stuff over the last few years. At the same time, I am marveling at his ability to put up those kinds of numbers when he's got that level of physical limitation and he's that far from what he was.

• 1:10:56Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:10:56Speaker 01

  And still being able, because some guys, Derrick Rose is a great example of this. I just was talking about the other night because I'm like Derrick Rose, think about, oh, he lost athletically. He came back and he was actually pretty productive. He had some decent years as a totally different shooter, but he wasn't putting up those numbers.

• 1:11:12Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:11:13Speaker 01

  Like Embiid is putting up close to the same scoring numbers he did when he was an MVP and he's playing under like, playing like 27 minutes a game. And he's doing that because he's that good. When you pair that with the backcourt, Paul George, they've got other pieces like they just got Oubre back. They, they've got, you know, McCain, I don't know what's going to happen for him this year, but that's maybe for next year, but like he's.

• 1:11:34Bill Simmons?

  Or he's a trade piece. They, that McCain-Grimes combo, they want to train something.

• 1:11:38Speaker 01

  So hard defensively. I was so impressed with him when I was in Philly. You cannot dismiss this team's chances to make a real run at the whole conference.

• 1:11:48Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:11:48Speaker 01

  They're gonna, they're gonna be middling until then. They're gonna be up and down. It's funny because you look up, I'm like, looking at their schedule. So they were 24 and 21 and I'm sorry, they were, they were 16 and 11. You're like, okay, that's pretty good. Now they've gone eight and 10 since. It's like, but, but they're capable at any given night of looking like, oh my God, like how can we forget about this team? So that's kind of where they're at.

• 1:12:09Bill Simmons?

  I texted my buddy House, size and speed.

• 1:12:13Bill Simmons?

  That's what they have, which I don't think anyone else in the East has that combo. And I don't know if it's sustainable and Embiid might get hurt tomorrow. You mentioned the limitations. I remember Duncan in probably around 2011, 12 range. One of his legs just stopped working basically, and you could see it when you went to the games. He was basically on one leg, but he was so good and his footwork was so good and he was so smart. It just didn't really matter and he just picked the spots. But one of his legs didn't work and when I watch him beat it, I'm like, one of his legs doesn't work. I don't, he can't push off it. I don't understand how he's getting to his spots. I don't understand how teams aren't using this against him, but he's making it work.

• 1:12:55Bill Simmons?

  I'm taking them seriously, especially because of the maxi edge comb. I think at home in a playoff series, that team's going to be a nightmare. Cause that crowd loves those guys, you know, and there's an energy in the building. And if they get anything from Embiid, who knows? All right, lingering Lakers, Toronto, Phoenix. We've talked about all of these teams. Just quickly on the Lakers. And I'm sorry for the Toronto and Phoenix fans who are probably like, oh, you skipped over our teams. We've talked about them in the past. I don't think, I don't see any scenario where the Lakers get out around one of the playoffs. And yet they're 28 and 17 and they have Luca, who's one of the best five guys in the league. And they have LeBron, who's looked pretty good lately. And they have a lineup that seems to make more sense than it did.

• 1:13:40Bill Simmons?

  And they might even be able to make a trade or two because they have some expirings. And I don't take them seriously at all because I don't think they're going to be able to get stops. But they have a way of just stealing six minute stretches of these games where they just, all of a sudden they were down eight and then they're up 10. You know, you kind of don't even know what happened. There's no team in the league like this. I still hate the Lakers. I'm just, I freely admit it's my least favorite team. So I'm rooting against them and I'm probably not the best objective observer. What do you see when you watch this team?

• 1:14:12Speaker 01

  Well, I just see. Their defense is so bad at times, it's hard for me to wrap my head around like taking them really seriously like to potentially win the West, which you would think a team with Luca and LeBron and even a healthy Austin Reeves, like you think they should be in that mix just based on those names alone. It's hard for me to get to that point because of how their defense looks for stretches of games. Having said that, the only two teams in the Western Conference that I would say like definitively now and going forward, like they're not beating these two teams in a seven game series are Oklahoma City and Denver. Now, would I put money on them beating San Antonio or Houston or Minnesota? I probably

• 1:14:57Speaker 01

  wouldn't want to risk, I'm not a gambler anyway, but I probably wouldn't want to risk my money on that. But would I dismiss their chances of being able to do that with like Luca on your team and how good he can be in playoff series and what we've seen him do historically on nights when he's damn near won games by himself? Um, I can't just, and, and look, it's not, cause it's not like San Antonio is really young. They haven't gone through any of this. Houston, I like a lot, but I, they haven't had as good a year as I thought they would, as consistently dominant as I thought they could be. And then Minnesota, you say the same thing about, especially to stretch them in right now. So like, I'm just saying, like, you said, there's no way you can envision a scenario

• 1:15:40Speaker 01

  where they get out of the first round. I wouldn't go that far, depending on what that four, five or six, three matchup looked like if they get into that. But I don't think they could, they could beat Denver or Oklahoma City if they played them right out of the gate. And I don't think that's gonna happen. I guess conceivably they could end up with Denver in the first round. I guess that's possible, but more likely they get a team like Houston or they get a team like Minnesota.

• 1:16:04Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. The thing that scares me about them, when they want to get like eight minutes of pretty good shots, they seem to be able to do that. And LeBron, who I don't, I don't think LeBron has a first step anymore in the same way in the half court, but coming off a rebound or coming off pace, he still can do the old LeBron, go 60 feet and you can't stay in front of him and he's going to get a layup. And then he's obviously great in the half court, even though I don't think he's the same player anymore. Smart, they're relying on a lot, which would make me nervous. And I think they're losing Ayton once and for all. I just think the, the confidence in him is fading to the point that you're going to lose him as an asset pretty soon. And they probably already have. So whether they can put him in a

• 1:16:48Bill Simmons?

  trade or whatever, I, I just think the ship has sailed for, for him with them. But, uh, but I mean, to get, to get the athleticism they're getting from LeBron at this age, it's pretty good. I don't think they'll be able to get stops and I think they're going to lose in round one to whoever they play, but maybe I'll be wrong.

• 1:17:06Speaker 01

  I think my strongest argument for them potentially, potentially being able to beat one of the teams I mentioned, that's why I wouldn't rule it out. Luca didn't want to get Chicago, like that was Luca to me.

• 1:17:17Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:17:17Speaker 01

  At his absolute peak in Dallas, where

• 1:17:21Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:17:21Speaker 01

  he was less, you know, and it's never going to be non-existent, but less of the distracting stuff with the officials, less of the constant body language that's just to me is just like not, you know, doesn't demonstrate enough leadership. He wasn't doing it as much the other night. And there's some of the passes he threw in that game to, by the way, chips in 46 points as well. But some of the passes he threw in that game and the way that the Bulls had absolutely no chance to stop this guy in the half court, that reminded me a lot of him at his absolute best in Dallas. And that's why I'm saying he's capable of doing stuff like that. And if that's one or two games in a seven game series, that's enough to potentially shift the series.

• 1:18:01Bill Simmons?

  Well, that's why, as I said, I don't see any scenario where they get out of round one. I also wouldn't bet against them. I'm just like the look at that game he had the other night. It's just like the ceiling's off in Alder. The ceiling and the floor is off. I don't know what to expect from them. If he just decides to do that for two months. What are we gonna do? Clippers number 10. They're officially the sleeper. Even though they are still under 500. We talked about them already. The only thing I wanted to mention was five weeks ago. We were terrified that OKC was gonna go 75 and 7. And that the Clippers were gonna give them a top three pick. And now times have changed. So anyway. Zach did a good job of breaking them down with Mo and his podcast, but.

• 1:18:45Bill Simmons?

  The five out thing that they can do now, I think, is the biggest thing I've noticed. That they have looks now. I don't think they knew what the hell they were those first four weeks. And Kawhi wasn't really back and fully Kawhi. And there was just kind of the James Harden. It was awful. Now they have different things they can do. They got some young guys off the bench now and they're just, they have a little bit more of a defensive identity. They figured out how to use Collins. I think they're good. I'm taking them seriously. I'm.

• 1:19:10Speaker 01

  You have to.

• 1:19:11Bill Simmons?

  I'm taking them more seriously than the Lakers.

• 1:19:13Speaker 01

  What's crazy is, what's crazy is like, this is how buried they were. They've won 15 out of 18 and they're still six games away from getting.

• 1:19:21Bill Simmons?

  I'm unbelievable.

• 1:19:22Speaker 01

  Like to catch the six seed. So, you know, can you make up, can they make up six additional games on a team like Minnesota or a team like the Lakers? Like, can you make up six, seven games on those teams with 30 something to go? Probably not. So you're talking about, most likely going to be like, you know, a high seeded play in team, a seven or something. Like, that's the route they're gonna have to take, even if they continue to play out of their minds, because that's just a lot of ground to make up on other teams that are pretty good teams. I don't know they could do that. So.

• 1:19:51Bill Simmons?

  That's a horror show matchup for the one seed. You'd be like, oh, cool. We're the one seed. We get to play. Now, we don't know if Kawhi's gonna be healthy in two months, but who knows?

• 1:20:00Bill Simmons?

  Next group is lurking. And this is just Cleveland and New York. Cleveland's 28 and 20. New York is 27 and 18. Cleveland, last 15 games, 11 and 4. You saw them in person. You saw an awesome mobile game. In general, I never. Really gave up on this team because. It wasn't like they could make a trade. They were so hampered by the apron. It wasn't like, it's kind of like, this is your team. So you have 82 games to figure this out. You have a lot of talent. Are you going to figure it out? They look better than it did. I want to mention they have a five game West trip coming and I think this is, we'll know when they go on this trip. If they're gonna start to look like the 16 game win streak team from last year. The wet, going on the West Coast and, and being on the road and being together, like this is usually when

• 1:20:44Bill Simmons?

  it comes together. So I'm monitoring that trip.

• 1:20:47Speaker 01

  It's, it's, they absolutely are starting to come together.

• 1:20:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:20:51Speaker 01

  I've been scratching my head all year about this team that last year was unstoppable, most nights offensively and also really good defensively. A lot of nights, but they were, their offense was literally, they'd hit you with an onslaught of offense that you couldn't recover from last year and it was not, it wasn't a lot of that this year. You know, Garland's been hurt and took him some time to come back and De'Andre Hunter just hasn't shot the ball well all year. So, and you know, Merrill now out, they haven't had Strews. There's like a lot of reasons, a lot of different lineups.

• 1:21:19Bill Simmons?

  All that stuff.

• 1:21:20Speaker 01

  All these teams deal with it. They've had a lot of it. They're starting to convince me more here that like, okay, like they're getting it together. Not fully like, okay, there you go. Now we're good to go the rest of the year, but definitely a better product than you were seeing over the first couple of months.

• 1:21:38Bill Simmons?

  I'm monitoring them. The Knicks, this goes back to our regular season versus playoffs discussion. They're six and nine in their last 15. Catch them on the wrong night, they look awful.

• 1:21:49Bill Simmons?

  I still think when we get to the playoffs, it'll be a different story. The Towns, the Towns piece is worth monitoring because uh, I, it's weird that his offense went backwards and he seems to be a little bit of a lightning rod these days, but we've already talked about the Knicks in this pod. All right. Second to last group is the contenders. I still have Houston as a legitimate contender. So I have seven teams left. Houston, Boston, San Antonio, Minnesota, Detroit, Denver, and OKC.

• 1:22:16Bill Simmons?

  Are you good with that as a final seven here? Or is there a team that, would you have put Cleveland or New York in that final seven?

• 1:22:22Speaker 01

  Give me that, give me that seven again.

• 1:22:24Bill Simmons?

  Houston, Boston, San Antonio, Minnesota, Detroit, Denver, and OKC. Would you have jumped Cleveland or New York over any of those teams?

• 1:22:35Speaker 01

  Man, it's tough right now because it's like

• 1:22:38Bill Simmons?

  Sounds like you're down on Houston a little bit.

• 1:22:40Speaker 01

  Well, I was. I actually punished them severely when they lost to the Kings. I punished them. I banished them to 10th on my like rankings in the West alone. I was like, and I didn't obviously fully buy into that, but I was like, this was at a time when the Kings were losing by 30 to everybody.

• 1:22:59Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:23:00Speaker 01

  And then they get them and losing that game. I was like, are you kidding? And everybody played. Everybody played. It wasn't like they sat guys. Everyone was there. They were trying to win the game and they got beat by the Kings. I punished them. It was just a temporary thing, obviously.

• 1:23:16Bill Simmons?

  They're out of solitary confinement.

• 1:23:18Speaker 01

  They're out of solitary. They're back. They're back out. Yes, they're back out in the yard. They're back out, you know, I'm letting them out, but obviously they've got the talent and they've got the talent on both ends of the floor. That yes, they have to be still considered in the mix. Um, you know, Minnesota is just kind of like, man, like, you know, you're asking me at a time when they're playing the way they're playing now. Like, I'm kind of going, yeah, I mean, I guess you'd have to put almost New York and Cleveland kind of in that boat.

• 1:23:45Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it might be a nine person contender group.

• 1:23:48Speaker 01

  Um, I'm not, I'm not, I'm not ready to, I think of the two between the Knicks and the Cavs, I'd probably be more likely to go with the Knicks. Um, but it's six, one half thousand the other, honestly.

• 1:23:59Bill Simmons?

  So Houston number seven, they still have a, they're still plus 6.2 per hundred, which is fourth in the league. They're still 12 games under five, over 500. The thing that's weird with this team. So you would think KD and Shangoon and Jabari and Reed Shepard and Amen Thompson. You'd think that's, that's my five. If I'm going to do anything in the playoffs. KD, Shangoon, Jabari, Reed, Amen Thompson. Those are going to be my five. That's gives me the most flexibility. I could put Reed in the corner. He can run fast breaks. I have scoring. I have size. I can kind of hide Reed on their worst player on the other team. Thompson can guard everybody. That's minus 2.2.

• 1:24:43Bill Simmons?

  This season, those five guys together and it kind of matches. Watching their games and wondering why when when those guys play together, why it's not better? And I don't know what it what what is missing with those five. So what do you think? KD, Shingun, Jabari, Reed, Amen Thompson. Why isn't that a kick ass five? What am I missing?

• 1:25:04Speaker 01

  Yeah, well, I think that it's always more of a even more so than I think than that five. Two things I think that that they have shown me that like is why I'm not fully bought in. I do think their offense can be stagnant and stale sometimes.

• 1:25:19Bill Simmons?

  No question.

• 1:25:19Speaker 01

  It's not. They're not making teams guard them. They're making it easy to be guarded. And I think there's more there that they could do with with just motions and movements and cuts and like weak side action taking place, multiple actions at the same time with different sides of the floor. They're very predicated on get the ball in the hands of KD or Shingun and they're just going to play out of that and see what happens. And I think they make themselves easier to guard than they have to. The other thing, and I said this last week, I think there's the most, one of the most untapped

• 1:25:52Speaker 01

  weapons in this league is Amen Thompson in the post.

• 1:25:58Speaker 01

  I don't know why they haven't really examined it. He never goes down there.

• 1:26:03Bill Simmons?

  I would throw in him on the post, but then also when they spread out their team and he just tries to beat people one on one. I always feel like he's getting a layup. I'm with you like he's he's some sort of force and I don't know what, maybe they don't know how to harness it.

• 1:26:17Speaker 01

  But even in the, and I agree with you, the one on one stuff, but even then you can kind of at least you can kind of back up, dare him to take a pull of 15 footer with a hand in his face.

• 1:26:25Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, good point.

• 1:26:25Speaker 01

  When he posts up, the rare times that he does, but I'm I'm thinking of potentially viewing this. He's so quick off his feet.

• 1:26:34Bill Simmons?

  He's slippery.

• 1:26:35Speaker 01

  Incredible athlete down there and he's a good passer. So if you if you put him in a one on one situation, you know, do you want to leave Reed Shepard? Do you want to leave Kevin Durant?

• 1:26:46Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:26:46Speaker 01

  Like, do you want to rotate off those guys to even Shangoon? Like, do you want to leave those guys to go double Ahmed Thompson post? That's a tough call. And I just think he could

• 1:26:55Bill Simmons?

  Jabari in the corner.

• 1:26:56Speaker 01

  Just learn how to go two, three dribbles with a guy on his back and like the different spins he could get into because he's so lightning quick off his feet. It would put a lot of pressure on defense to try to figure out. I'm not, you know, run your offense that way. But why you can't do that five, six possessions a game, four, four possessions a game, one a quarter even, they don't ever do it. And I think that would be something I would look at the team and go, wow, that's, that's a nice other option to go to for a stretch of a game if Durant's getting a blow. Let's see how teams guard that. That's a tough matchup for guys that at that spot have to guard him. They're smaller and they're not nearly as quick as him. And so I just think it's something else.

• 1:27:32Bill Simmons?

  I love that. That's really smart. Yeah, they, it doesn't feel like they've fully understood how to use him. But with that, it's what's funny is nobody posts up anymore, right?

• 1:27:43Speaker 01

  Yeah, that's very true.

• 1:27:45Bill Simmons?

  But I always feel like

• 1:27:46Speaker 01

  Except for wings.

• 1:27:48Bill Simmons?

  True.

• 1:27:48Speaker 01

  Wings and point guards do, but big guys don't.

• 1:27:50Bill Simmons?

  True. Like Peyton, Peyton Pritchard's posting up. Um, I'm always for anything that makes the defense panic. And I think if you spread things around with him, that would actually work. But, uh, I haven't given up on Houston. I think we'll be hearing from them. Adams seems like he's going to be out for a while. Adams is one of those guys that seems like he gets hurt every year, though. So I'm not, I'm not sure.

• 1:28:11Speaker 01

  Yeah, very true.

• 1:28:12Bill Simmons?

  I'm sure that's why they got Capella.

• 1:28:13Speaker 01

  He's such a difference maker, too.

• 1:28:14Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. All right, quick break. This episode is brought to you by Fire TV. You ever sit down, ready to watch the game, only to search and scroll endlessly? If so, you need Fire TV. It shows you are live games from your favorite teams all in one place, right on the home screen. No more searching. Just sit down and turn on Fire TV. Separate subscriptions may be required. Feature and content availability may vary. This episode is brought to you by Workday. Guessing is for game shows, not your business, especially when your margin for error is zero. Workday is the enterprise AI platform for HR, finance, and IT with a deep understanding of your organization's context and guardrails.

• 1:28:54Bill Simmons?

  So every AI action is permission aware, giving you accuracy 24/7 and the ability to not just get work done, but get it done right. It's a new workday.

• 1:29:06Bill Simmons?

  Number six, Boston. We don't have to talk about them. Number five, San Antonio. I feel like we've talked about them a bunch. Number four, Minnesota. Twenty-eight, nineteen, eight and seven in their last fifteen. Also, some terrible stuff going on in the city, which I'm sure isn't, you know, when you're trying to play basketball and stay focused on stuff, having your city falling apart around you probably isn't awesome.

• 1:29:31Bill Simmons?

  I'm not giving up on this team either. I do worry about them in the playoffs when they're up five with a minute left and these other, these teams that they're playing are just like, let's go get the ball. They don't have a point guard. And they're just, and they just get attacked. And it's like watching a football team under attack in the, like a two-minute drill. And all of a sudden, it seems like they can't dribble the ball over half court. And I don't know how they fix that. How do they fix it?

• 1:29:57Speaker 01

  That's, that's, that's personnel dictates they really can't unless they make a change in personnel. They can't. And it's, that's one of the reasons that I, like, they're off, they're, they're, they're so difficult to come to a full evaluation of because they can be so good defensively some nights. And obviously Anthony Edwards can, can just be too good for some defenses some nights. But that's just so much to put on his plate.

• 1:30:19Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:30:19Speaker 01

  All the time, every night, like he, not, oh, because he's such an explosive, talented scorer. And he's gotten better at reading defenses and getting the ball out of traffic and all of that. But that's just so much to put on a guy's plate that should just be raw, go attack, like, like all the time without having to think that way. But I think he has to because they don't have the personnel to really do that around him. And I think it is a hole with their team that hasn't really been filled.

• 1:30:46Bill Simmons?

  I think you and I both value the point guard position. You know what's nice sometimes? A point guard, a guy who can dribble, who's looking around and be like, hey, he hasn't had a shot in a while. Hey, we have a fast break rebound. I'll run the fast break and get somebody a layup. It's nice to have one every once in a while. That's why I value Reed Shepard.

• 1:31:03Speaker 01

  By a pickup game and I just take a look and I see a guy running the show that way, you know?

• 1:31:07Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, and it gives you a little hop in your step.

• 1:31:09Speaker 01

  Forty-five-year-old, you know, weekend warrior guy, but he knows how to run a team.

• 1:31:13Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:31:14Speaker 01

  There you go. Just give him a shout out through the window.

• 1:31:16Bill Simmons?

  Well, that's why when I watch Reed Shepard, I'm like, I feel like it's in there with him. I could see him like running a team like we talked in the past podcast.

• 1:31:24Speaker 01

  He reminds me of a more athletic.

• 1:31:26Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, there's some Mark Price stuff.

• 1:31:27Speaker 01

  More athletic Mark Price. That's kind of what he reminds me of.

• 1:31:30Bill Simmons?

  I want to see if they.

• 1:31:31Speaker 01

  Glad he's had the year. He's had the year that he's had because it was, it was a lot of scrutiny on him. And early on, you weren't sure like, oh, man. Which way is this going to go? He has really stepped up and he, he's on the court. Like you already mentioned, he's on the court.

• 1:31:44Bill Simmons?

  A lot.

• 1:31:44Speaker 01

  A lot of their important runs and games.

• 1:31:47Bill Simmons?

  He reminds me of my guy Drake May a little bit. Like silent assassin. Doesn't really talk that much. Sneaky, competitive, just ready to fight. I just wanted to bring Drake May in the podcast. Uh, number three.

• 1:32:01Bill Simmons?

  Minnesota, we'll see. I, I don't know how they can make a trade with how handicapped they are by the roster, but I think that point guards just sit. Even though I have them fourth.

• 1:32:10Bill Simmons?

  I, because I, I'm almost projecting some sort of move. If this is the roster and May. They're dropping out of the top seven. Detroit, number three. We talked about them a little bit already.

• 1:32:21Bill Simmons?

  My only thing with him.

• 1:32:24Bill Simmons?

  One shooter short. Twenty seventh and three point attempts, seventeenth and three point percentage. And I feel like so much is on Kate at the end of these games. I, the Levert thing, which I didn't like when they did it and it doesn't seem like it's worked. And he's 14 million this year and 14 million next year. They have all their picks. Feels like that's the move, something with Levert. And a pick and just try to get somebody who's more reliable. They could go nuts and try to do Troy Murphy. I don't know if. If I'm New Orleans, I'm not trading for all of Detroit's picks because they're going to be good for the next five years, but.

• 1:32:57Speaker 01

  Same.

• 1:32:58Bill Simmons?

  There's a move, right? There's something. Could it be Klay Thompson for Levert? I don't know. They, like, there's some sort of veteran shooter that I want to trust in the last five minutes of a game. That will give them space. I don't know.

• 1:33:09Speaker 01

  Like that, I think that's the, that's the only thing I see. One thing that I've been, is their three point shooting. Like that's, that's a legitimate thing. Like they're. You know, to think that there's going to be nights. In playoff series. When. They make eight threes. And the other team makes 15.

• 1:33:26Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:33:26Speaker 01

  Right? That's, that's tough to overcome that with, I don't care how good your, your mid-range is and you get to the line, you could score in the paint. At some nights, it's going to require you to make 12, 15, maybe 18 threes in a game. And they, that's the one thing about the team, but, but when I start to think about that, what I counter that with is their ability to show up with this absolute focused, business-like approach. And the fact that they've lost, I think, two games in a row, three times all year, never more than that. They always come back quickly. When you think that they're like, okay, look at Detroit, they went off five in a row again. They've been doing it all year.

• 1:34:09Speaker 01

  I just love how serious they are. They're, they're tough. They're gonna, they're gonna come at you. They want to fight in an alley when the game starts, that they're ready for that. And they've got a star that you can't speed up. He plays how he wants to play under the most pressurized moments. But the shooting is a thing and it's, it's, we'll see if that ends up costing them at some point down the road.

• 1:34:32Bill Simmons?

  Friday night, I watched a bunch of basketball, including Denver, I'm sorry, Detroit versus Houston. Those are probably the, the top two seeds in the, these guys might fight tournament when you're, and they were together and it was like, there's actually might be a fight in this game. And there was a couple of times it was brewing, even in the fourth quarter, there was a couple of like guys had to get separated, but Detroit's ready to roll. That's why I want them to get a shooter, but I would also love to see them get one more, one more chest out guy, because I think that's a real asset for them. They're a real hard team for the Celtics because they're so physical and they're so tough and the Celtics, you know, it's a younger team. I, they don't have a ton of size and you put somebody like Stewart out there and he's,

• 1:35:16Bill Simmons?

  you know, moving bodies is intimidating. And Durant too, who I think I just went, he's my most improved guy this year. I'm voting for him. I'm just telling you now.

• 1:35:25Speaker 01

  It's a great call. He has to be an all-star. And yeah, I love the point you're making about the toughness, because you don't rarely see teams this young that are this tough. Typically, those are teams that got like a bunch of veterans sprinkled in there. It's a group of young guys that all have the same look on their face. And I just, I don't know. I'm just so impressed. And they give JB all the credit in the world, man. He did a great job in Cleveland, too. And he just, you know, I'm glad that he ended up in a place where he could go win right away. Some of those guys, they win, then they get fired, and then they got to go to their next job as a 20-win team. And you don't know if it's ever going to turn out to for him to go to a place that was a bad team, but had a lot of talent to turn it around. We're both he and Kenny Atkinson ended up in good places. Is I'm two of my favorite guys. So I'm happy for both of them.

• 1:36:10Bill Simmons?

  You know what's funny about that team? Because this happened in the Houston game. Jabari Smith almost got into it. And the Pistons have a couple guys on their team that are we have to get this guy out of the situation, guys, where you can see the other team, the other teammates are like, oh, shit, we got to get Ron Holland out of here now. Something's gonna happen. And they have like, Isaiah Stewart's like that. They have like three of those guys. There was like, oh, shit.

• 1:36:36Speaker 01

  They like, they like hired extra coaches on staff, and that's all they're there for. They're not even a basketball guy. Yeah, they got it from some nightclub. And they know how to get out there quickly and separate people.

• 1:36:46Bill Simmons?

  You got to do it. All right, the favorites. I think Detroit, if that's my gun to the head team in the East, I would pick them because I think they have a trade to make right now. If I who's going to win the East, I'm projecting whatever trade it is. But I really like that team. They're gonna have home court. And I just think that I think it's all lined up for them. They have a top seven guy. Now, if they don't add another piece, I get more worried because I think there's a sameness to how they play that I think you get used to in a series. I'm just assuming they're gonna get somebody.

• 1:37:17Speaker 01

  This this massive, massive X factor hanging over the Eastern Conference with Jason Tatum, possibly being injected into like a playoff run by the Celtics.

• 1:37:28Bill Simmons?

  I don't even want to talk about that.

• 1:37:29Speaker 01

  Okay, so so like, there's that hanging out there. So like, as good as it looks for Detroit now, we know things. Listen, if he doesn't say he didn't even play, and Boston somehow makes it to the conference finals. I mean, that's one of the great coaching jobs and like stories like we've seen in a long, long time in this league. But if he comes back, and none of these other

• 1:37:48Bill Simmons?

  Well, he's coming back. The question is, how good is he gonna be? We will see him again.

• 1:37:53Speaker 01

  Yeah, he's gonna play. I agree.

• 1:37:57Bill Simmons?

  I'm gonna write down every week who I think is gonna come out of the East and I bet it changes every week. This week I'm picking Detroit. Next week it'll be another pick. Alright, the favorites. We'll go through these quickly. Denver, number two. I used to have OKC as the sole favorite. I have now moved Denver into that group together, partly because this, this no Joker run was so important for their young guys. I mean, Watson in January is averaging 23 and 6 a game. 50%, 49 from 3. Like, this is, whatever happens when Joker comes back, the fact that they know that they have what they got from Watson and Pickett, even a little Najee, um, I just think you can't put a price on that. Like, this is the most important thing that could happen. Them surviving without the best

• 1:38:42Bill Simmons?

  guy in the league is crazy. I never, ever in a million years would have predicted it. The other thing would be Gordon's hammies. We'll see what happens with them.

• 1:38:49Speaker 01

  You know, real quick on Watson, like, you know, because this has been a big conversation, obviously, for like a month.

• 1:38:54Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:38:55Speaker 01

  How well he played, but, you know, I'm being realistic about all of it, saying, okay, get everybody back out there. Aaron Gordon, Christian Brown, Jokic. He doesn't go back to what he was. Okay? So he's more than that now, but at the same time, there's only so many opportunities in a given night when you add all those guys to the mix, right? So his numbers are gonna obviously take a big hit. But here's what they did find. They found this, because they're gonna need this. There's going to be nights in big games where now, maybe, you know, somebody's hurt or foul trouble, or he just gets it going when he's now capable of giving you a 20-point playoff game.

• 1:39:35Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:39:35Speaker 01

  And this was a guy that was like, he almost became robotic to me in like his decision-making. It was all about, I'm just gonna guard, because I don't, I don't, offense, I don't, I don't even factor offensively for this team. I didn't know what he was offensively. I'm like,

• 1:39:48Bill Simmons?

  Me neither.

• 1:39:49Speaker 01

  Pretty good defender. He's gone from that to a guy now that I think is gonna be a turning point in games for the Nuggets.

• 1:39:56Bill Simmons?

  I agree.

• 1:39:57Speaker 01

  In the playoffs. It's crazy.

• 1:39:58Bill Simmons?

  Well, you know, it's funny. They also have Tim Hardaway, who I think once around will probably have a good half. Where like, Tim Hardaway said 4-3's in the first half.

• 1:40:08Speaker 01

  That's all it takes.

• 1:40:09Bill Simmons?

  They have wild cards. That last year, you'd think like, DeAndre Jordan was playing in playoff games for them and they, they had their fingers crossed. Every minute Joker would. I personally, they would be my gun to the head pick right now. And I don't think that's going to change over the course of the next couple of weeks because I just, I just think there, I, I can't imagine Jokic is only going to win one title. I keep coming back to that. So they have this, the best supporting cast he's ever had. This is the best Murray's ever looked. Is Cam Johnson going to be healthy ever? I don't know. That's an X factor too. Like it'd be nice if he could just play basketball. Um, but for the most part, when they, if they can get everybody back in April, this team's a monster. And then OKC is the

• 1:40:54Bill Simmons?

  other one. They're 30 and seven and 10 now. They're 12 and eight in their last 20 and J-Dub and Hartenstein have only played half the season. I don't really know how worried you should be here. I guess the only things that would worry me are the three-point shooting, which has been bad and the fact that they don't get offensive rebounds at all. So when the three-point shooting goes away and the league's better and it feels like you can get them late now, like they're losing like a couple of two-point, two-point games that I just don't feel like they were losing the same way last year. What else are you seeing?

• 1:41:28Speaker 01

  Yeah, they've had three of those type of losses in the last three weeks and that wasn't the case like a year ago. Here's what's happened with Oklahoma City and it's the best thing that could have happened really to the league, you know, is they went from an inevitability of repeating.

• 1:41:46Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:41:47Speaker 01

  Which is what it looked like to me.

• 1:41:49Bill Simmons?

  Yes.

• 1:41:49Speaker 01

  I was just like, we're gonna, we're gonna go ahead and play this out, but what's the point? I mean, you know, and I know they got taken to seven games twice last year, but the fact that they had this strange off-season because they were champions, a bunch of young guys, they come in, everybody gets paid, like, and that didn't, that, there wasn't even a blip on the radar for them. They roll out to 24 and one to start the year. I'm like, forget it, man. Like, how are you supposed to deal with this team? And again, defensive numbers off the charts. Here's what has happened in the last three, uh, what, month and a half?

• 1:42:20Bill Simmons?

  Four weeks, yeah, five, four, five weeks.

• 1:42:22Speaker 01

  Yeah, month, really, yeah. Is they look like they can be had.

• 1:42:28Speaker 01

  Right? They can be had if certain things happen. Now, you said gun to head Denver? Gun to head for me right now would probably be OKC. I'm not ready to just act like, you know, them at their best isn't still something I'd look at as the standard. But they've now opened the door to the conversation. That's what they've done. Even the struggles they had with San Antonio, like three times in 10 days, that's not a fluke. That there's something there. Denver at full strength, you're going, my goodness. Like that with Jokic getting another shot at that team again with a better supporting cast around him. Like, yeah, you might want to bet on Jokic, but here's the thing. We haven't seen Denver like that yet because everybody's been out. So

• 1:43:09Speaker 01

  we're going to see this and we're going to revisit this a couple of times. I'm sure at least several times before we're done the season. Going into the playoffs, it could change, but right now I'm still kind of hanging with them. But the fact that we're even having the conversation that there's doubt is made everything more interesting in the NBA.

• 1:43:26Bill Simmons?

  Well, can I give you a scenario here?

• 1:43:29Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:43:30Bill Simmons?

  It would, it would require San Antonio is 31 and 15, Houston's 20 and 16. So it would require Houston somehow jumping San Antonio and it would require Denver doing a little better. There is an OKC, San Antonio one slash four scenario in round two.

• 1:43:46Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:43:46Bill Simmons?

  And then there's a Denver, Houston, three, two round. Like basically there's a way for this to happen where San Antonio, OKC would be the round two matchup. I think that would suck for OKC. Not saying they would lose, but that would have to be their worst case scenario to then have to play San Antonio and then Denver the next round. So I would just watch those top four spots. The Lakers are kind of lurking, but I don't. I just think it's going to be those four in some order after OKC. And where they end up, can Denver get to the two seed when Jokic comes back? So they could at least have home court in the first two rounds.

• 1:44:23Speaker 01

  I think Denver will be the two seed. Denver will be the two seed when it's all said and done, which is actually amazing that we're not even talking about beyond that because as much as we've acted like Oklahoma City is so vulnerable, they're five and a half games up.

• 1:44:35Bill Simmons?

  Right, right.

• 1:44:36Speaker 01

  So, you know what I mean? And that could, that could end up being eight, but it's all said and done. Who knows? But I think Denver will get the two seed and prolong seeing Oklahoma City as long as they can.

• 1:44:47Bill Simmons?

  What's your Super Bowl pick?

• 1:44:50Speaker 01

  I'm going with Seattle.

• 1:44:53Speaker 01

  I'm going with Seattle.

• 1:44:53Bill Simmons?

  Because you worked for ESPN and that's just what everybody did?

• 1:44:56Speaker 01

  No.

• 1:44:57Bill Simmons?

  They poured the Kool-Aid down your throat?

• 1:44:59Speaker 01

  I, it's as simple as this. I'm an NFC guy. I'm an NFC guy.

• 1:45:04Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 1:45:04Speaker 01

  So my, that's been my conference my entire life. I'm an NFC guy. Um, look, this would be incredible if the New England pulls this off, man. It's almost, it's not even fair that you people that root for these teams up in that.

• 1:45:18Bill Simmons?

  People hate us. It's great. We're so back.

• 1:45:21Speaker 01

  You just had Tom Brady for 20 years and he went, you know, you're back in the Super Bowl?

• 1:45:26Bill Simmons?

  We made it.

• 1:45:27Speaker 01

  22 year old quarterback? Come on, man.

• 1:45:30Bill Simmons?

  Listen, we, we suffered for five full years.

• 1:45:34Bill Simmons?

  It's terrible. We're just completely irrelevant.

• 1:45:37Speaker 01

  I still though, I, I'm going to wonder for a long time what the hell Sean Payton was doing, not going kicking that field. But that's another, for another day.

• 1:45:45Bill Simmons?

  I was on multiple Pat's fan text threads praying for them to go for it.

• 1:45:49Speaker 01

  Yeah, that situation.

• 1:45:50Bill Simmons?

  I didn't want to go down 10-0.

• 1:45:52Speaker 01

  Please go for it because you're just looking at the conditions and the way this game is going. You're like, that 10-point lead? It's like, it looks insurmountable.

• 1:46:01Bill Simmons?

  Plus, even if they got it, it didn't guarantee they were going to score a touchdown. They just sort of went first and goal on the night.

• 1:46:06Speaker 01

  Risk reward, the risk reward was not there.

• 1:46:09Bill Simmons?

  There's no basketball version of this where people have just decided you should just go for it blindly on all these fourth downs. Cause I always feel like you gotta bring in the situation, that Denver, New England thing, and Seth Wickersham wrote a great piece about it. The perfect example of like, throw away the analytics and think about the actual situation and what's going on. And the fact that the Patriots offense couldn't do anything and you could go up 10-0 at home with a blizzard coming, take the points. Forget about the analytics. Forget about, oh, we could go up 14-0. Cool. You could also just go up 10-0. And make us try to get two scores on you and you didn't do it and you gave us.

• 1:46:46Speaker 01

  You know what's funny though? I'll say this, like what's going on currently changes your thinking. And I'll give you an example. Two years ago, I'm a commander's fan, right? We go to the NFC championship game that year. We went forward on every fourth down all season. And got every one of them because Jaden Daniels.

• 1:46:59Bill Simmons?

  Twenty for twenty-three.

• 1:47:01Speaker 01

  Impossible to stop.

• 1:47:02Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:47:02Speaker 01

  So now, now, you know, going into that year, I wasn't that aggressive with it. Now by mid-season that year, every single time, ah, why do we even have a punter? Just cut the punter. We don't need a punter. We're going to go for it every fourth down all season. Like that's where I, that's where I got to. So it is amazing how like you can change your thinking based on like current success.

• 1:47:22Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:47:22Speaker 01

  With something.

• 1:47:23Bill Simmons?

  Tasting anything. Last thing I had for you. I talked about sun and NBA mailbag. A rule in the last minute of a game, if a team's up four and there's a foul,

• 1:47:37Bill Simmons?

  the team that's up only get, only takes one free throw. If they make it, it counts for two points and we keep the game going.

• 1:47:45Bill Simmons?

  Or we can say last thirty seconds, whatever, whatever it is, last thirty, you're up. You fouled me, I'm up four because you want to stop the clock. One free throw, I get two. If I miss it, I still get to take the other free throw. But if I make it, I get two points for the one free throw and we keep going.

• 1:47:59Speaker 01

  To penalize, to penalize the team for trying to foul and get back in the game?

• 1:48:03Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Yeah.

• 1:48:05Speaker 01

  Why?

• 1:48:06Bill Simmons?

  Because I don't like the fouling. The fouling is out of control. We're seeing teams now proactively fouling to try to game it with like thirty-seven seconds left.

• 1:48:14Speaker 01

  I agree with that. It starts, it starts.

• 1:48:16Bill Simmons?

  I'm tired of it.

• 1:48:17Speaker 01

  Yeah, it starts with even, even the whole thing up three, protecting a three-point lead and how early some of these teams are fouling. I think it's a massive mistake, by the way, strategically to me, if you're up there, I've seen teams do it fifteen, sixteen seconds left in the game.

• 1:48:31Bill Simmons?

  Right. I hate it.

• 1:48:32Speaker 01

  You have any idea how much you, how much longer you're extending the game? Cause you're also going to put pressure on yourself to make free throws.

• 1:48:38Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:48:39Speaker 01

  Like, and, and there's good, you're going to miss one eventually. I just think it's silly. Like you get down to that seven, six second range. Yeah, I see it. I get, I get the, I get the point then. What some of these teams are doing with fifteen, twenty seconds left in the game up three, they're already taking fouls. I don't get it.

• 1:48:54Bill Simmons?

  All right. Tim Legler, Cleveland and who tomorrow?

• 1:48:58Speaker 01

  Lakers, man.

• 1:48:59Bill Simmons?

  Oh, there you go.

• 1:49:00Speaker 01

  We got a good one. Yeah, we got it. We got a good one. Both.

• 1:49:03Bill Simmons?

  That's a good one.

• 1:49:03Speaker 01

  Playing pretty well. Yeah. So I'm looking forward to it, man.

• 1:49:06Bill Simmons?

  All right. Great to see you. A pleasure as always. I'll see you in February.

• 1:49:09Speaker 01

  You got it, Bill. Thanks.

• 1:49:11Bill Simmons?

  All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Legs, thanks to Eduardo and Gahow as well. Don't forget, new rewatchables went up Zodiac, which you can also watch on Netflix, and you can get that podcast wherever you want, including on Netflix. Wild Things coming next week on the rewatchables. I have one more podcast coming on Thursday as we start to get ready. Notice how I didn't talk about the Patriots really at all during this podcast. I was really proud of myself. I'm saving my thoughts. I'm listening. I'm listening. There's already been some disparaging comments made in media circles. I'm hearing everything. We'll be talking about the Super Bowl over the next week and a half. Anyway, I will see you in this feed on Thursday.

• 1:50:11Bill Simmons?

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• 1:50:52Bill Simmons?

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• 1:51:38Bill Simmons?

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