The NFL’s Coaching Carousel, and a Round 2 Breakdown With Peter Schrager and Joe House

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Peter Schrager and Joe House to react to the coaching news around the NFL, before previewing the divisional matchups and making their Ringer 107 picks for the week (2:14). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Peter Schrager and Joe House Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo Post your job today at https://www.linkedin.com/simmons The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit⁠⁠⁠ www.rg-help.com⁠⁠⁠ to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to by Viori. When it comes to clothes that score high in both comfort and style, Viori is my MVP. Sunday performance joggers, oh yeah. They have the perfect, I could watch a game and then go out to dinner vibe. And the Meta pant, that's my number one, I need to look like I tried option. Get 20% off your first purchase at Viori.com/Simmons and discover the versatility of Viori clothing. Exclusions apply. Visit the website for full terms and conditions.

• 0:32Bill Simmons?

  The Bill Simmons Podcast, presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. We are also presented by The Ringer Podcast Network. I put up a new rewatchables on Tuesday. We did What Lies Beneath. We have a really good movie coming out Monday. Good, meaning that we've been dying to do this one for years. So stay tuned for that. You'll be either pleasantly surprised or horrified. It'll be one or the other. This is my fourth podcast of the week. It's our first week on Netflix. We remain on video and you can listen to us on Spotify as well. And you can find us on any podcast platform you want. We will be going live on Sunday, right after the fourth playoff game of the weekend, which is Rams Bears. Cousins Allen will be here. Should be around seven o'clock.

• 1:15Bill Simmons?

  We will be live on Netflix for that and you'll be able to listen to that one right after. Coming up here, we're going to have Peter Schreger come back. We have Joe House still here. We're a carcass from last week. We got killed on picks. It's fine. We're going to talk round two. We're going to talk coaches, a whole bunch of other stuff next. Let's take a break, Pearl Jam, and then boom, let's go. The Bill Simmons Podcast is presented by FanDuel. FanDuel's got it all. Same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in live. They have Your Way. Go check out Your Way. You can build the bet that fits your play, your way. Plus, don't miss out on the NFL playoffs, one of my favorite times of the year all month long. Download the FanDuel app or head to FanDuel.com/BS to get started.

• 1:59Bill Simmons?

  Get ready for the playoffs. Let's go. Must be 21 plus, present in select states, 18 plus in DC, Kentucky and Wyoming. Game problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit RG-Help.com. Call 888-79777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut.

• 2:41Bill Simmons?

  All right, recording this late afternoon Pacific time. Joe House here as always as we continue the carcass that was our Ringer 107 picks season. I like it at this point. I'd rather with picks either be terrible or good, and we've been terrible this year. Peter Schrager joining us. He's been doing media, I think for 48 straight hours. I've seen him on every ESPN channel. Just Tom and Harbaugh. He's just on rinse, lather, repeat. Tom and Harbaugh, Tom and Harbaugh, Tom and Harbaugh. Why was this such a big deal?

• 3:11Speaker 01

  Which one? Both of them?

• 3:13Bill Simmons?

  Just the combo of it. It felt like this end of an era, start of a new era thing. But meanwhile, neither guy had won a playoff game. Well, Tom and I had won, he'd lost his last seven. Harbaugh hadn't made the Super Bowl since when? 2013?

• 3:28Speaker 01

  Yep, since the Superdome.

• 3:30Bill Simmons?

  And yet it was, everyone was reacting like this. Like, do these guys have anything left in the tank, in your opinion, to be Super Bowl winning coaches?

• 3:38Speaker 01

  Interesting, because as everyone was doing flips on my ESPN networks today, and hello to the Netflix audience, I'm happy if you're watching Emily in Paris, I'm here now, this is good. As everyone's doing flips about the Harbaugh, you know, someone in the NFL, a very trusted source, texted me and goes, I could have sworn you were all doing the same flips about Pete Carroll last year when the Raiders hired Pete Carroll and they thought that that was the culture guy and that was going to bring stability. And I said, it's a little different. It's a little different in that Harbaugh is 11 years younger than Pete Carroll. And in this case, like, he is what the Giants actually

• 4:21Speaker 01

  need. Such turbulence there over the last five, 10 years. And this is almost, I don't like saying, I didn't want to say this on air, on television, because it's almost, goes to like a dark place, but John Mara is sick. Like, John Mara, the owner of the Giants, is sick in a way that, in this move, is like him putting his flag down, saying, okay, whatever happens over the next However, long like we know this franchise is at least in capable hands and we know that John Harbaugh is going to at least instill stability and install a professionalism and a culture of discipline, winning Giants football. That is what those fans have always

• 5:05Speaker 01

  known, whether it be Coughlin or Parcells or even Dan Reeves. Like, there's always been that that senior voice, that leader, that guy who's been there, done that before even getting there.

• 5:16Bill Simmons?

  You mean, you mean the fans over 18 years old?

• 5:19Speaker 01

  Yeah. I mean, that's.

• 5:24Bill Simmons?

  Sorry, I hate the Giants in Soto's house. No, just they haven't been good in 11 years. I've been fine with it. I've enjoyed it. It's like, oh, the Giants fans are so used to this. It's like, there's Giants fans in high school who have no recollection of anything good happening with this team. So it's been a while. I guess is my point.

• 5:42Speaker 01

  And the counter to Harbaugh, which there's many, like, I'm telling you, my phone lights up when I go on these ESPN shows, people in the league who are like, always just quick to tell me I'm wrong. So as I was praising the hire and saying why this doesn't necessarily work for seven of the nine avail or not, seven of the eight teams, Giants made sense. Giants need this. That franchise needs this. Someone said, he's 63. He doesn't call offense or defense. He's, he lost the locker room this year in Baltimore of a bunch of 20-year-olds who he didn't connect with anymore. And oh, by the way, for Mr. Special Teams Coach and CEO, they blow leads more than any team in the fourth quarter. So what exactly are you getting? And I'm like, all valid, all fair. The Giants fan base and franchise needed this

• 6:27Speaker 01

  guy at this moment.

• 6:28Bill Simmons?

  Well, you left out that the hiring of coaches didn't seem like it was one of his strong suits either, other than Mike McDonald, who was awesome for him and a big reason why they were succeeding. And now you're seeing him in Seattle. How, so you nervous of Harbaugh being in your division?

• 6:42Speaker 02

  Yes, definitely, especially with that Giants roster. I mean, on both sides of the ball, there's talent. I've enjoyed the ineptitude and the thing that that from the perspective of a Washington fan, they still have that GM. Thank God that GM is still sitting right there in the chair. Somehow he survived over all these years of ineptitude. But here's the thing, man, they needed an adult and they hired an adult. Like that's the thing that's been missing. Daboll is awesome. And honestly, it's impossible, but the best move for the Giants would be to hire Brian Daboll as the offensive coordinator. That would be a team that I would honestly be.

• 7:22Speaker 01

  Well, don't laugh like so Dable is actually interviewing or doing this on Thursday. He's interviewing for the Titans head coaching job tomorrow. And I think Eagles actually makes a lot of sense for him. But Mike Kafka, who was the interim coach and the offensive coordinator last year, like, I got it from pretty good people like he's still in the mix as an offensive coordinator for the Giants that the rare like, all right, so I was offensive coordinator, new head coach, and I was the interim head coach, but I still might be the OC because Dart actually showed a lot of flashes with him. Everyone in the morning was like Todd Monkin is going to be his offensive coordinator. Well, Todd Monkin is interviewing for the Cleveland job on Tuesday, I believe, for the second time. It might be the Cleveland Browns head coach. So slow down with putting in who's going to be the coordinators. But

• 8:02Speaker 01

  these hires, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator are almost as important as landing the plane with Harbaugh.

• 8:10Bill Simmons?

  I just I thought they were sloppy the last couple of years. And I thought the stuff with Lamar and the relationship was just strange. Guys, one of the best five quarterbacks in the league and and everything about it seemed choppy and weird. I thought they blew just, I mean, how how many times did they blow games that we bet on?

• 8:29Speaker 02

  I mean, that's true, although I would push back gently on the notion that they were sloppy last year. There were some regular season losses that became

• 8:38Bill Simmons?

  You're right.

• 8:39Speaker 02

  the hallmark, but like they were one play away and they were absolutely as talented, if not more talented than the Bills. They just, you know, because they threw away a stupid Raiders game in the early part of the season last year.

• 8:51Speaker 01

  At home to Minshew.

• 8:53Speaker 02

  Ended up having to go on the road to Buffalo and it was a last play of the game, you know, kind of situation. And that's been the tale over the last half decade with this Baltimore.

• 9:03Bill Simmons?

  My thing is it increases their floor. Right? Totally agree. Now, it's like if Harbaugh had been in charge of last year's team, they probably don't have the record they have. I like that he's an adult in a city that's needs adults and needs, you know.

• 9:22Speaker 01

  It'll be interesting though, so like the whole, there's a couple of cool meta Brian Curtis sports media stuff here. The people that were, the people that were on it were Ian O'Connor, who's not necessarily a Giants beat writer, right? Like Art Stapleton, who's the local, like NewJersey.com writer. And, you know, you've got guys who we don't typically get the day to day from. And it was like, this is an old school coach and he's got his people. And as we're tracking everything, what I loved about it was that in real time, we, it wasn't the 48 hours, let me show you how they got them. People were like, all right, they're at

• 10:06Speaker 01

  dinner at a restaurant in East Rutherford right now, or Chris Mara went and flew to Harbaugh's home and sat with him. Like, the chase was fun. This was like a cool ride for Giants fans and as much as Joe Shane gets shit on and as much people think, Joe Shane landed this plane. And I know money talks and I know that maybe Harbaugh wasn't going to have 10 other opportunities, but to, to get Harbaugh to agree to do this before meeting with Tennessee, which from all accounts, we're going to offer them the world also, no state income taxes, no pressure, Cam Ward could have been an opportunity that was interesting. It was pretty cool to watch this in real time from a media standpoint and not the usual players who are saying, here's what the latest is like Ian O'Connor,

• 10:50Speaker 01

  like dusted off the old notebook and was like, all right, I'm going to be up to one in the morning working on this. Paul Schwartz from the New York Post was like, I'm going to be on this. It was, it had a kind of old school chase to it. And from the journalism standpoint, from the spotlight or from whatever, it was like, all right, there is a place for media in this and those Giants beat reporters did a great job on this one.

• 11:10Bill Simmons?

  And there was a piece about, I read on Sports Illustrated about the dinner. In the wine cellar.

• 11:15Speaker 01

  In East Rutherford, a Mediterranean restaurant.

• 11:18Bill Simmons?

  House, you would have liked it. They went off the menu with the dinner.

• 11:21Speaker 02

  Oh, you know how I feel about off menu.

• 11:23Bill Simmons?

  Some stuff that wasn't normally on the menu. I, I think the Harbaugh thing's fine. We'll see. We'll see how it goes. He's hitting that mid 60s.

• 11:33Bill Simmons?

  It's another young team and if he had trouble clicking with the young Ravens, I don't know why that would change with the Giants. So the Tomlin thing was way more interesting to me because he's younger. I think he's a better coach than Harbaugh. And I think there are real reasons why he didn't succeed, which basically stemmed to the fact that he, they threw away the quarterback position for seven, eight years, ever since Big Ben started to, uh, fall apart. I guess the question with that one is, he seemed to discount the quarterback position. And never really, even like when they could have drafted Jackson Dart, like there was stuff in the draft they could have done. I, it feels to me, House, like he, he just needed a break. I'm excited to have him on TV. I don't know if he's going to be as good as everybody seems to think he's going to be on TV.

• 12:14Bill Simmons?

  I, I reserve judgment because I think he's coming back to the league. Those guys always scare me. But it's like, I'll do TV, but I don't want to be too hard and, um, but what, what's your dream scenario for Tomlin House?

• 12:26Speaker 02

  Well, TV for sure this upcoming season. God, we need that. And, and you know, we did a draft, Cousin Sal.

• 12:33Bill Simmons?

  I saw that, yeah.

• 12:36Speaker 02

  And you know, the, the possibilities range from, you know, the new head of the, Defense Department, Department of War, all the way to Fox. And I think Fox is probably where he'll, he'll, he'll land. But honestly, BS, you just raised a point that I am fascinated by, and I have to ask Pete, because Tomlin will never tell the truth. What was going on in the front office of the Pittsburgh Steelers over the last decade? Mike Tomlin didn't miss out on drafting Jackson Dart. It wasn't a hundred percent his decision. How, the only quarterback they drafted was a tiny person with tiny hands. Why did they do that? And, and how have they missed over, like, there's been good quarterbacks for eight years now?

• 13:21Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, but they were in quarterback, you know, purgatory.

• 13:24Speaker 01

  Because of the draft spot, they never had that top 10 pick. So when they took Tony Pickett at 20, it was like, all right, like he watched Pickett every day at practice because they share a facility with University of Pittsburgh. There was a comfort level there, but I don't, I can't blame him. Now, look, they had the 20th pick, I think this year in the draft, they passed on him. They took a defensive lineman. But yeah, they passed on Jackson Dart, Shador, Tyler Shuck, like, could they have taken one of those guys? Sure.

• 13:49Bill Simmons?

  Tyler Shuck was a tough one. That, I mean, he went to the 40th pick.

• 13:53Speaker 01

  Yeah, but I think in his heart of hearts, they knew they were all in and I had a good feeling that he had an assurance that Aaron Rodgers was the quarterback this year. So again, I.

• 14:03Speaker 02

  That's fine. They could still take Shuck. I mean.

• 14:06Bill Simmons?

  How about, how about Terrell Edmonds over Lamar Jackson?

• 14:09Speaker 01

  All these are fair.

• 14:11Bill Simmons?

  I just felt like, I, I know he wasn't in charge of it, but he also had an immense amount of power. I'm sure they didn't want him to leave the last five years. And at some point you got to slam your fist down and be like, I can't do this again with shit quarterbacks. Like, what are we doing, guys? Help me out.

• 14:28Speaker 01

  What's interesting is the stuff that came out afterwards is that he handed his papers and he said, I'm done. He walked away and it sounds like the Steelers were willing to run it back maybe one more year and have that conversation. So whereas Harbaugh was flat out fired by Steve Bisciotti, who by the way, the best hour press conference I've ever seen.

• 14:47Bill Simmons?

  I loved it. Yeah.

• 14:49Speaker 01

  And we don't have enough of him on television. He, he should be on a microphone more. But that said, where that's a firing, this one, Tomlin gets his papers in and says he'll do it. And he goes out with dignity and he tells the team and you get the story today that he, everyone was crying and standing ovation, the whole thing. He's got two more years left on that contract and as pleasant and as amicable as that was, the Steelers are a business and they're not just going to let him go anywhere. So he's going to have to sit out at least one year and then next year there has to be a trade to get him. Now, he was making more than $20 million a year to be the Steelers head coach and he's got two more years left on that. So like, it's a, he's walking away in a place where I don't, I don't think he wanted to hear the noise anymore. I think he wanted a break.

• 15:32Speaker 01

  I think he wanted to have a fresh start and the media deal. I worked, obviously, with Sean Payton the one year he was away. You know, Mike McCarthy and I did the draft together this year when he was away. And it's amazing that these guys still, like when Payton was gone for that year, he might not have said too many vitriolic things or done, made, gone viral, but like watching games with him, like he is just, he was just peppering everybody in that green room. What are your thoughts on Bryce Young? What are your thoughts on Justin Herbert? Do you think that Chargers job would be open? Like, he spent that whole year navigating the landscape and getting his butt. What do you think of David Tepper? Is that a guy I could work with? What do you think of that? Like, those were the questions. I would imagine if Tomlin takes a year off, next year will be a fact finding mission,

• 16:16Speaker 01

  and he will be the Mike Vrabel hire of next season, where he was away for a year and now he will have all the information he wants.

• 16:24Bill Simmons?

  So, should I have done this after I left ESPN House?

• 16:27Speaker 01

  Take a year?

• 16:28Bill Simmons?

  Just taken a year and just done the Fox Sunday NFL show? Just branch on those guys and been like, I don't know what I, I don't know what I have long-term yet.

• 16:36Speaker 01

  Steak dinners?

• 16:38Bill Simmons?

  It just sounds great.

• 16:39Speaker 02

  A whole year's worth.

• 16:40Bill Simmons?

  It's basically like a gap year.

• 16:42Speaker 02

  Honestly, I feel like you owe me. Cause I would have been, I would have invited myself to at least two thirds of the courtship. I mean, scarcity is the, is the most valuable sort of attribute, right? And, and, and look at the coaching cycle we're in right now. There's still, what, six jobs to get filled?

• 17:01Speaker 01

  Eight.

• 17:02Speaker 02

  Eight.

• 17:03Speaker 01

  Eight. And there's not exactly Ben Johnson and Mike Vrabel on the market. And we're talking about teams are going to be fighting over Jeff Halfley and Jesse Minter. No offense to those guys, but that's where we're at.

• 17:13Speaker 02

  No offense.

• 17:14Speaker 01

  Also, I would add with the, the gap year and the, the year away, like, Bishadi said something interesting. He said to John Harbaugh, hey, you're 63, you like to travel, your wife, you know, you guys are in your 60s and your daughter's in her 20s at law school. You like, like, use this year because five years from now, when you're 68, or 10 years from now, when you're 73, you won't be able to travel like you want to, you won't want to do these things. Tomlin walking away now, perfect time, come back refreshed, and truly already will be the bell of the ball for the next head coaching opening.

• 17:49Bill Simmons?

  It's tough because if you're a Steelers fan... Hard to feel good about the rest of the decade. Right? Tom is like, okay, guys, we'll see you later.

• 17:59Speaker 01

  It went all in this year.

• 18:00Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, this is like the guy selling the house that he knows that the, there's all kinds of shit in the basement and there's black mold in the bedroom.

• 18:09Bill Simmons?

  And the neighbors are about to do construction and there's 90 things that are about to happen. And he's just like, I'm out. I wish everybody the best. Thank you. And he's just gone.

• 18:21Bill Simmons?

  I'll be interested to see where he goes. Not just for football, but for TV.

• 18:26Speaker 01

  What do you think?

• 18:26Bill Simmons?

  Well, first of all, we have too many people on every show to begin with. So it's not like, oh, man, they need one more person on this show. I do think Fox could use, um, could, could, could maybe use a little botox.

• 18:42Speaker 02

  An injection?

• 18:43Bill Simmons?

  I thought Fox was pretty brutal this year. I, I didn't really understand. I know Shreks, I know you, Shreks is good at saying, this is tough for Shreks, but I just, I feel like the mix is, is kind of gotten stale on the Fox show. So I think that would help.

• 18:59Bill Simmons?

  NBC?

• 19:00Speaker 01

  There's a coaching seat.

• 19:02Bill Simmons?

  Well, NBC, I think the Sunday night show. You know?

• 19:06Speaker 01

  NBC is interesting because then you could do the whole big announcement at the Super Bowl with 50 million people. You could roll out Tomlin. Oh, we got the Olympics. We're going to bring Tomlin to Milan. Like he's could be the shiny new toy for a little bit too.

• 19:17Bill Simmons?

  But most times they go in the studio, whereas I'd actually enjoy it more if they knew how to do the games. And I know that games are really hard to just get thrown into, but I think that would be really fun to hear him, uh, break down different stuff. Well, it's, this is, we've talked about this every time this happens, the, the Pat Riley NBC factor of, you just grow in stature in the year off. By the time it's 12 months from now, it just seems like you're the biggest prize imaginable. Uh, maybe House's commander's job will be open by then.

• 19:47Speaker 02

  Well, um, I don't want to divert us too much, but this Brian Flores defensive coordinator thing really has my attention.

• 19:56Speaker 01

  You like it?

• 19:57Speaker 02

  And would that be a head coach in waiting potentially if this Washington team does not perform up to standard?

• 20:02Bill Simmons?

  They just got rid of, they just parted ways with Cliff because they felt like. Hey, can we have people who are going to be here for a few years? Why would you then hire Flores for one year?

• 20:13Speaker 02

  Oh, no, no. It would be for longer than one year because he's the next head coach.

• 20:18Speaker 01

  That's not awkward or anything.

• 20:20Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that doesn't, come on.

• 20:21Speaker 01

  What do you think of, what do you think of 30 year old David Blau, who's never called a play at any level?

• 20:27Speaker 02

  I'm not worried about that because we have lots of evidence, you know?

• 20:30Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 20:30Speaker 02

  Every one of the most successful young offensive minded coaches in the NFL were here in Washington.

• 20:36Speaker 01

  It's true.

• 20:36Speaker 02

  At one point, and they were all young. They were David's age. So let's go ahead and take a swing.

• 20:41Speaker 01

  I've gotten to know him a little bit. He's, I mean, significantly younger than me, which is alarming. But like, I don't think anyone expected him to be an offensive coordinator, but he is outstanding. And like, is one of those guys, him and Davis Webb, who we both, we all watched are both like these like quarterback whispers now. And they're basically saying Jaden and him had a great relationship. Let's just elevate him and let's go.

• 21:03Speaker 02

  It's great.

• 21:03Bill Simmons?

  Listen, after Conconiple comes in age 20, does the BS pod for 75 minutes. Like everything's just happening younger and faster these days. 30 year old coach sounds great.

• 21:14Speaker 02

  They all grow up quickly.

• 21:16Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, everybody, maybe it's the internet gets everybody going.

• 21:18Speaker 01

  Can I use that to throw out a name for the Cleveland job that's getting a lot of heat right now?

• 21:24Bill Simmons?

  Before you, hold on, before you do that.

• 21:26Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 21:27Bill Simmons?

  I can't think of anything worse than the Cleveland job. I would rather not have a head coaching job. I honestly, I would rather, I would rather just pass.

• 21:34Speaker 01

  Why do you say that?

• 21:35Speaker 02

  That's not true.

• 21:35Bill Simmons?

  Cause I think they're terribly owned. Um, I think they have not figured out their quarterback situation at all. They have this Deshaun thing hanging over them and, and I just think that there's seven other teams I would rather be for the next five years in the AFC. Hands down, without even blinking. How am I going to turn things around in Cleveland? Good luck. Go ahead.

• 21:57Speaker 01

  The, uh, I know there's a lot of former Browns employees who listen to this podcast. They're grinning right now at that, at that whole comment.

• 22:04Bill Simmons?

  That's not why I did it.

• 22:05Speaker 01

  No, no, no, no, no.

• 22:07Bill Simmons?

  Who's the worst franchise to them the last 13 years? They had one year and a 13 years where they were competent. Congratulations.

• 22:15Speaker 02

  Still a good defense.

• 22:16Bill Simmons?

  What I would, what I would say is, um, we were talking about.

• 22:21Speaker 01

  The young, like, that's the team that goes and swings for that super young coach because there are no expectations next year. They have this really good rookie class, whether you like Shador or not, he's a part of it, but besides him, it's Schwesenger and it's Fanning and it's Judkins and they got all these guys and it's a blank slate.

• 22:38Bill Simmons?

  Congrats.

• 22:39Speaker 01

  The two, the two names that are getting a lot of buzz with them and comes from good sourcing, Grant Udinski, 30-year-old offensive coordinator of the Jaguars and Nathan Schillhaus, no relation to Joe House, who is the like number three on that Rams offense, who's 35 years old and used to coach at Iowa State. So like those two guys might not get a look anywhere else, but they might be the next head coach of the Browns or they just go super young and say, screw it, let's just, let's just go with like a young, fun vibe. And by the way, Watson, Watson stuff falls off the books after next season too. So there's a silver lining to all this at some point.

• 23:22Bill Simmons?

  Honestly, I'd rather hire Mike McDaniel than any of those dudes.

• 23:26Speaker 01

  He, he interviewed well with them.

• 23:27Bill Simmons?

  The McDaniel thing, you could really talk yourself into if you stared at it long enough because Tua was just not a quarterback that you could do anything with on top of all the injuries they had the last couple of years. And it was a weird situation to begin with. I would rather, at, at least there was some proven stuff happening with him with DJ Mikey Max spinning his tracks.

• 23:46Speaker 01

  Let me ask you guys, because this was a good debate I had with someone today. Would you rather be the head coach of like the Cardinals or the Browns? Or would you rather, if you're Mike McDaniel or you're Cliff Kingsbury, there are so many amazing offensive coordinator jobs open right now. So Detroit's offensive coordinator job is open, Philadelphia's, Tampa's. Are you better suited going to one of those teams with an established quarterback? The Chargers with Justin Herbert, crushing it for a year? Or do you say, you know what? A head coaching job only comes around so often. I gotta take a head coaching job because I don't know if anyone's gonna have to choose between the two, but there's a lot to like about those coordinator positions and there's so many negatives to some of these head coaching jobs.

• 24:28Bill Simmons?

  I have a take on this, but House, let's say you're a 32-year-old, you're not a red hot coordinator, but you're definitely respected and you're in the interview process.

• 24:40Bill Simmons?

  Would you grab the first head coach job that you could get and talk yourself into it? Or would you play the long game and try to build your, build, basically build your, your fortitude for a year from now, basically versus like grabbing something?

• 24:56Speaker 02

  Yeah, the credibility, the quals. Yeah, I, I absolutely adore the Detroit opportunity. I think that's amazing and that would be my absolute number one first choice.

• 25:06Bill Simmons?

  I agree with that.

• 25:06Speaker 02

  Without hesitation or reservation.

• 25:07Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 25:08Speaker 01

  Over like Arizona head coaching job with no question, without a quarterback.

• 25:12Bill Simmons?

  But here's the thing, Shakes.

• 25:13Speaker 02

  No quarterback. Who's the quarterback? Who plays quarterback for, for the Cardinals?

• 25:17Bill Simmons?

  Can I be new coach conciliary for a second?

• 25:19Speaker 01

  Yeah, please.

• 25:20Speaker 02

  Let's do that. That's fun.

• 25:22Speaker 01

  This is good.

• 25:23Bill Simmons?

  Who's your quarterback? Who's your owner? That's it. You can figure out everything else, but if you, if you're oh for two with those two things, I'm out. Arizona, who's been a fucking bigger disaster than them other than Cleveland, right? Arizona's, it always goes wrong with them.

• 25:42Speaker 02

  Jets would like to be included in the conversation.

• 25:44Bill Simmons?

  I'm saying out of the ones that are available, the Jets have a coach at least for the next couple of months.

• 25:48Speaker 02

  Raiders are kind of interesting.

• 25:49Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, but I would much rather have the Raiders job because at least I have a quarterback in that scenario, right? And I have a.

• 25:55Speaker 01

  And you're assuming Mendoza?

• 25:56Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, at least I have somebody that I can talk myself into.

• 26:00Speaker 02

  Okay, okay.

• 26:01Bill Simmons?

  And Mark Davis, who's been a bad Raiders owner, but he's been a good WNBA owner. It's not like he's completely incompetent, whereas the Browns. And he spends. And, you know, when he hired Pete Carroll a year ago, we were like, that makes sense. Pete Carroll, maybe he can.

• 26:16Speaker 01

  Kelly, that's great.

• 26:17Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 26:17Speaker 02

  We thought, and Gino, like that, that was a good risk, a good gamble.

• 26:21Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, so I, I look at it like, I, I just wouldn't do those organizations unless they had this awesome quarterback. I'd be afraid to do the Tennessee one too, because I think they're a mess too.

• 26:33Speaker 01

  Oh, I think their quarterback is good.

• 26:34Bill Simmons?

  But you have Cam Ward, that's what I mean.

• 26:36Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 26:37Bill Simmons?

  So with that one, it's like QB organization. All right, I can talk myself into Cam Ward. I'm sure Harbaugh probably heard stuff about the organization that made him be like, oh, I'll do this Giants thing. Biggest, longest NFC franchise we have, right? Them or the Bears? Who's been around longer?

• 26:55Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 26:56Bill Simmons?

  Those two? Packers? I'm talking out of my ass now.

• 26:59Speaker 02

  How do you rate, how do you rate the Dolphins?

• 27:03Speaker 01

  Good question.

• 27:03Bill Simmons?

  I think that's a bad job.

• 27:07Bill Simmons?

  Right? That same thing. Organization QB. Well, I don't have a QB.

• 27:12Bill Simmons?

  Steve Ross has been not as bad as the Browns owners, but he's in the running.

• 27:17Speaker 01

  They've never won a playoff game.

• 27:18Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they haven't won a playoff game this century. So you're gonna just walk in as a 30 year old guy with no QB and turn that around? Probably not. I'd rather go to Detroit, build my shit up like Ben Johnson did, and then wait to strike for the, for the, like, what's it, if you're 30 versus when you're 32, like, what's the difference? Think about the guys like, what was that guy, Rob Chudzinski?

• 27:39Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 27:40Bill Simmons?

  Who took that Browns job? The Browns couldn't find a coach. They're like, alright, this guy. That guy's career was over after that. Like, nobody was hiring him after that. I wouldn't want to be that. I wouldn't want to be like, this is a career ender that I took this job. The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel, the divisional round. I call it round two, where the NFL's best takes center stage and with everything on the line, FanDuel is turning on playoff mode. More boosts means more way to level up your playoff bets and all customers are getting a profit boost pack every NFL playoff game day waiting for you right in the app. FanDuel makes it fast, easy and fun to get in on the playoff action. When your bet wins, you will get paid instantly. So visit FanDuel.com/BS and grab

• 28:24Bill Simmons?

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• 29:07Bill Simmons?

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• 29:28Speaker 01

  So each franchise is different. I've spoken to a lot of these candidates who are interviewing for them and it's funny, they're all on Zoom right now until they can meet in person unless they're fully out of a job. And like, I guess I haven't, like Brady's very involved with the Raiders one. I think I'm allowed to say that. Like Brady is, he was at this Fanatics event.

• 29:45Bill Simmons?

  Doing cell phone, cell phone calls from a St. Bart's yacht.

• 29:48Speaker 01

  That's what I'm saying.

• 29:49Bill Simmons?

  From a Fanatics event.

• 29:50Speaker 02

  He's at Bakers.

• 29:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 29:51Speaker 01

  At this Fanatics event at the Intuit Dome the other night.

• 29:54Bill Simmons?

  Hold on, I'm talking to Alex Cooper. I have to call you back.

• 29:55Speaker 01

  Alex Earl, um, late and then all of a sudden he's, uh, you know, he's on a Zoom, you know, and he's very engaged and dialed in. So like

• 30:04Bill Simmons?

  Very engaged. Great.

• 30:05Speaker 01

  That was interesting.

• 30:07Bill Simmons?

  Glad he's engaged. He owns a part of the team.

• 30:09Speaker 01

  He's leading the interviews. All right. He's playing a big role. I was like, all right. So what's Aikman's role in Miami? Well, once they hired the GM, apparently John Eric Sullivan, who's the Packers GM, or was the Packers number two, is now their GM and he's running the show, but Aikman's on these calls also. The, you know, it's interesting. Each team is different. Like who's in the room and who's got the voice. So I think owner and leadership and corporate structure and org chart are almost more important than quarterback. Like we'll figure all that stuff out, but give me a stable franchise where I know who I'm reporting to and I have some sort of base. Like that to me is almost more important than the quarterback.

• 30:51Bill Simmons?

  So would you say the Giants are a stable franchise?

• 30:53Speaker 01

  I would because it's family owned and those guys.

• 30:56Bill Simmons?

  So stable but incompetent.

• 30:58Speaker 01

  Potentially the last couple of, yes, they, they've not had, they've not been competent the last few years.

• 31:04Bill Simmons?

  Ten plus years is incompetent.

• 31:05Speaker 02

  Stable with a lot of swings and misses.

• 31:08Speaker 01

  They went to the playoffs three years ago and won a playoff game. A lot of franchises would sign up for that.

• 31:12Bill Simmons?

  Eight, eight and one or something that year.

• 31:14Speaker 01

  I get it.

• 31:15Bill Simmons?

  Come on.

• 31:16Speaker 01

  I get it.

• 31:17Bill Simmons?

  Come on, Shreks. So House, you're with me?

• 31:22Speaker 02

  On what?

• 31:23Bill Simmons?

  Organization QB if I'm over two.

• 31:24Speaker 02

  Of course, yeah. I feel like we've had this conversation already.

• 31:27Bill Simmons?

  So the Washington job from two years ago, I think, has become more interesting because House ends up with Dan Quinn and Jaden Daniels, right? Coaching QB spot available in that draft. Pats end up with Vrabel and Drake May, who easily could have both been the Washington picks. And then you have Ben Johnson, who ends up a year later getting matched with Caleb, but potentially could have had the Washington job. It's like, you could write a book about how all these like sliding doors, right?

• 31:58Speaker 01

  They were on the airplane.

• 31:59Speaker 02

  Oh, they were on the plane. That's right.

• 32:01Speaker 01

  And they read on Twitter, an Adam Schefter report that he was withdrawing his name and they landed in Detroit and found out that, oh, wait, he's actually going back to Detroit and they flew back home.

• 32:11Bill Simmons?

  I mean, that could be Ben Johnson and Drake May right now. It's just weird. There's all these variables where it's like, whoa, whoa.

• 32:21Speaker 02

  You know what the difference between those teams and quarterbacks is in Washington? Washington played in the NFC Championship game last year. Yeah. So I'm okay. I'm pretty good.

• 32:31Bill Simmons?

  Amazingly, it worked out for everybody. Ben Johnson waits a year, ends up with Caleb, becomes a cult hero in Chicago. If they win this game this weekend, probably doesn't have to buy a drink again for the next couple of years. I think he's had a profound impact on Caleb.

• 32:47Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 32:48Bill Simmons?

  I based that just studying the locker room speeches and the demeanor of everybody. Yeah. The last one was one of the best ones last week.

• 32:56Speaker 01

  F the Packer.

• 32:58Bill Simmons?

  And then the Vrabel thing was a miracle that nobody hired that guy for a year and the Pats end up with him.

• 33:03Speaker 01

  He was with Cleveland last year.

• 33:05Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, just like, what was it? Coaching special teams or something?

• 33:08Speaker 01

  No one thought to hire him the year before. Like, it's actually amazing.

• 33:12Bill Simmons?

  So worst job is what? Cardinals?

• 33:15Speaker 01

  Cardinals is tough. Cardinals is tough. That's an uphill battle in a lot of ways.

• 33:20Bill Simmons?

  You're in a division with the Rams, Niners, Seahawks. You have no quarterback.

• 33:25Speaker 01

  Facilities are not, yeah, facilities are not what the other teams have. Like you're dealing with Jed York, who spends like no tomorrow. Stan Kronke, one of the richest men in America. And then that Seattle franchise with the, you know, the Allen family money, which is just insane. So you're, it's an uphill battle from the start.

• 33:42Bill Simmons?

  You think the Cardinals, you think they feed people on the team charter? Or is it one of those like just chips and spring water and soda?

• 33:49Speaker 02

  I mean, that's, that was the Dan Snyder playbook.

• 33:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that's one of the things they do. This is one of my favorite things, like finding out like the cheap owners, like some of the tricks they do.

• 33:58Speaker 01

  Or if you want to, if you want a T-shirt, you have to, they, they take it out of your paycheck, that kind of stuff. Yeah.

• 34:04Bill Simmons?

  Or like the one less bus where it's like some teams will have like a lot of buses and the other ones you're like crammed onto the bus. Like you can cut, cut corners every single way. I, I think the Cardinals job and the Browns job are tied for worse. I kind of like the Vegas job.

• 34:19Speaker 01

  I do too.

• 34:19Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I think, you know, the fourth place schedule next year, the Chiefs are going to be a mess. Who knows?

• 34:25Speaker 01

  What about the Atlanta job? What do you think of that job?

• 34:27Bill Simmons?

  You like the Atlanta job too.

• 34:29Speaker 01

  Why do you love the Atlanta job?

• 34:30Bill Simmons?

  Cause I think they have a lot of good players. I, I really thought that was the best team that didn't make the playoffs.

• 34:36Speaker 02

  The funniest thing about the Atlanta job is that we, we basically have to say something nice about the quarterback situation for that to be as appealing as we, we.

• 34:45Speaker 01

  You just talked about it, right?

• 34:46Speaker 02

  We intuit that that's an appealing job because of all of the talent on both sides of the ball. But they're going into the season with who playing quarterback?

• 34:56Bill Simmons?

  I think Penix is a write off.

• 34:58Speaker 02

  I know. Isn't that insane?

• 34:59Bill Simmons?

  Penix is a write off.

• 35:01Speaker 01

  So you'll appreciate this because you just, I know you guys love like the corporate, like how this all, okay, so. Raheem Morris thinks he's keeping his job. They lose that game. He ends up getting fired afterwards. Everyone's shocked. It turns out that that was weeks in advance. They'd already hired a consultancy firm that had already done all the work. Now, this consultancy firm, it's called Sportsology. They gave Arthur Blank, like, a book of recommendations on how he, you know, should build his franchise, how the corporate org chart should be, all this stuff. And then Arthur Blank is like, you know what? I want Matt Ryan involved. Matt Ryan and I was involved. They do an interview for a couple other guys, but it was really Matt Ryan's job, head of football operations. And now it sounds like Matt Ryan's the loudest voice that's going to be deciding all this stuff.

• 35:46Bill Simmons?

  I mean, this is nuts. It's just honestly nuts. I mean, the Brady thing is nuts, too. These guys have never had any sort of organizational anything. They were just quarterbacks.

• 35:58Speaker 01

  But they've been there. They know, they know the franchise inside and out. They know the market, you know? It's...

• 36:05Speaker 02

  They were, they're that, I, I'm less dismissive than you.

• 36:10Speaker 01

  Bill, you're the same guy who hates the blue shirt, khaki pants mafia.

• 36:15Bill Simmons?

  That you work for?

• 36:16Speaker 02

  Who is that?

• 36:17Speaker 01

  You know what that is, right, Phil?

• 36:19Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 36:20Speaker 01

  It's any of those middle managers.

• 36:22Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, the middle managers at the former giant company I used to work for.

• 36:25Speaker 01

  Well, no, I don't even know if it's that company. It's any company, middle management.

• 36:29Bill Simmons?

  They just show up in, in waves like coyotes, wearing blue shirts and khaki pants.

• 36:34Speaker 02

  Office space.

• 36:34Bill Simmons?

  And they have generic notes for everybody. Hey, guys, here are generic notes.

• 36:39Speaker 02

  You missed work yesterday. Well, I wouldn't say I missed it.

• 36:42Speaker 01

  So now you've, you've got Troy Aikman and Tom Brady and, and, you know, Matt Ryan, who are like, I actually have done it. It's, I actually respect that, too.

• 36:51Bill Simmons?

  It's like, Matt Ryan, you've been on the set of CBS for the last two years. We need your thoughts on how to rebuild our football organization from top to bottom. Come on in.

• 37:00Speaker 01

  No doubt.

• 37:01Bill Simmons?

  Hear the car keys. Please tell us what to do. I, I don't understand. I don't think this is that hard. Like, the, the, the fact that Vrabel was sitting there for an extra year. I almost feel it's probably like us with the Ringer 107 picks house. We just stare at too much information and like you're the brain breaks. And you can't just like step away from it and look at stuff logically and be like, I'm taking Trevor Lawrence against Josh Allen. What am I doing?

• 37:28Speaker 02

  I'm gonna, I have to ask Pete, did the Titans put out some, some bad words about, did they let, you know, some whispers? Because that, there was acrimony that led to that split. And Vrabel was always the, you know, we, we understood, uh, from our side of things, it seemed like he was the one that, that should have, um, outlived that situation.

• 37:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, in hindsight, in hindsight.

• 37:53Speaker 02

  Well, not even in hindsight, in, in real time.

• 37:55Bill Simmons?

  Let me speak first, Shreigs is, uh, reporting that. I don't know if he wants to do or not, but I, he's a big outsized personality alpha. And some people don't want that in the building. I don't think Washington did either. Like you get that guy. That's like your guy, your whole, the whole culture is coming from him. The Patriots don't care because they had no culture. Their owner's 85. Yeah. And they're like, fine, take this.

• 38:19Speaker 02

  He was there.

• 38:20Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. And they knew him. Whereas like Washington.

• 38:23Speaker 02

  Why did you mention Washington?

• 38:24Bill Simmons?

  Because Washington hired Peters. They had, they had the new ownership.

• 38:29Speaker 02

  Peters and Vrabel could have coexisted?

• 38:32Bill Simmons?

  No, but they didn't necessarily, they didn't necessarily need the awesome.

• 38:35Speaker 02

  They were together.

• 38:36Bill Simmons?

  But they didn't necessarily need the one man culture show. They wanted to do like this group, group thing where a bunch of people are in and Dan Quinn fit that.

• 38:46Speaker 01

  Survival for these executives is always in the equation. And it's why Belichick got one interview. And it's why, you know, a Vrabel isn't for everybody because you're handing the keys over to Vrabel. And I give Elliot Wolf, who preceded Mike Vrabel as a GM, a ton of credit for saying, you know what? Bring it on.

• 39:06Bill Simmons?

  Read in the room.

• 39:08Speaker 01

  Yeah, like this could save my job also if we start winning because at the end of the day, it won't. And then today, you know, Joe Shane could have very easily argued for a 33 year old defensive coordinator because that means he's going to be the biggest voice in the room. Joe Shane is no longer the biggest voice in the room, but knows what's best for the franchise is to hand the keys over to a 63 year old. And he's going to say, I'll do my job the best I can, but this is the new face of the franchise.

• 39:33Bill Simmons?

  Well, he wouldn't have had a voice if he didn't go for that. Um, can I just read you Bob Kraft's house? You know where you saw this? Bob Kraft gave an interview a couple of days ago and one of the things he talked about was Gerard Mayo's firing. And he said, uh, he was talking about how tough it is. And he said, I would say that was one of the one or two hardest decisions I've had to make because to fire after one year. And by the way, it was very expensive because it was not only his contract, but 25 other coaches. It's the worst financial implication since we've owned the team. Oh, I'm sorry, Bob Kraft. You're like a freaking multi billionaire. The team's worth $8 billion. You print money. We spent 50 million unspent money this year. You're complaining because you hired the wrong coach? You had to fire him?

• 40:18Bill Simmons?

  I love Bob Kraft. Thank you for bringing us six Super Bowls, but come on. You can't complain about how expensive it was. You're the fucking owner. You've printed money from this team for 30 years. Just stop.

• 40:30Bill Simmons?

  We're gonna take a break.

• 40:33Bill Simmons?

  We're gonna go through the four games. We only have four. We have some great subplots. I can't wait to talk about them. So a quick break. This episode is brought to you by Workday. Guessing is for game shows, not your business, especially when your margin for error is zero. Workday is the enterprise AI platform for HR, finance and IT with a deep understanding of your organization's context and guardrails. So every AI action is permission aware, giving you accuracy 24/7 and the ability to not just get work done, but get it done right. It's a new Workday. This episode is brought to you by Expedia. You know how at the end of the season, your team goes to Cancun, sometimes earlier than expected? Sometimes after blowing a 3-1 series lead, but what if you went to Cancun?

• 41:18Bill Simmons?

  With Expedia, save up to 30% when you bundle and save. You can book the flight or the hotel now, then book the rest later. In all fairness though, hopefully your team doesn't go to Cancun. 123 Cancun. Or if they do, you go with them. Expedia, the one place you go to go places. Sign in to save. Savings vary. All right, we'll go through the games in order, fellas. Same scenarios last week with the Bills, who are now one and a half point underdogs in Denver.

• 41:47Bill Simmons?

  And this all comes down to what is your appetite for betting against Josh Allen? Last week, it seemed like a great idea. I stand by the pick. I feel like Jacksonville lost the game in the first half, but there hit a point in that game where every third and seven, you just felt like Josh Allen was getting it and it felt really dumb to bet against them. So House, why is this different this week? Why would this be different in Denver?

• 42:09Speaker 02

  Because Sean Payton is not Liam Cohen. I mean, honestly, the thing that we missed in the handicapping of that Jacksonville game is we, we did not spend enough time thinking through, we're, we're so dismissive of McDermott, I think somewhat justified, like the touchdown with a minute left that gave the other team the ball back with a chance to tie. Probably not the best decision in the highest leverage moment. So, and he's got a lot of those on his resume. But respectfully, respectfully, because I am a huge Liam Cohen fan.

• 42:47Speaker 02

  He just wasn't up to it. I mean, you know, he, he botched the, the play calling and that Jacksonville team did exactly what we asked of them. Go run down Buffalo's throat. Keep doing it. Never stop. Run, run, run, run, run, run, run. And instead we're giving the ball to Trevor Lawrence. Now, good. I'm glad that we're, we're continuing to build him up. He is your franchise quarterback. Next season, they should be good again, but it's the playoffs, motherfucker. It's time to go win the football game. Take advantage of your advantage. The advantage was the run game. And they didn't bite down hard enough on it and they lost because of that, in my humble opinion.

• 43:29Bill Simmons?

  So that's the question for me, Shreigs.

• 43:33Bill Simmons?

  What do we, do we throw out the result last week because Jacksonville screwed the game up? Or is Buffalo in 2006 Pats mode where they somehow made the AFC title game with Brady and Rashad Caldwell? And Jabar Gaffney and Ben Watson and Lawrence Maroney. And it's just like, how did this happen? I look at the Bills who now are down to Shakir. Brandon Cooks, who wasn't in the league six weeks ago, Samuel, who just came off IR, banged up Kincaid.

• 44:03Speaker 01

  I think McCole Hardman, I saw.

• 44:05Bill Simmons?

  Oh, yeah. And, uh, and Dawson Knox.

• 44:08Speaker 01

  No shavers.

• 44:09Bill Simmons?

  Running backs, shavers out.

• 44:11Speaker 01

  No Gabe Davis.

• 44:12Bill Simmons?

  Gabe Davis out. And, uh, and now they're missing two safeties. And.

• 44:18Speaker 01

  No Poyer, you know, no Harrison.

• 44:20Bill Simmons?

  Honestly, House, the line should be Broncos by three. And you're getting a point and a half just because of Josh Allen, and it sucks to bet against Josh Allen. That's it. I can't think of another reason other than Bo Nix just shitting the bed in this game, which is the other thing you have to think about with Denver. Oh, shit, I took Bo Nix against Josh Allen. Why did I do that?

• 44:42Speaker 01

  I, I also, I saw a good, and they were underdogs to start the week. Now they're favored. They were the first number one seed in the AFC ever in the divisional round to be an underdog at home. They are the second ever since, and the only other one is the Eagles in 2017, who Carson Wentz had just gone down with a knee injury, so no one believed in Foles. There's no reason that the Broncos should have ever been underdogs. Now they're favored by a point or whatever. The disrespect is out of this world for Bo Nix. And you gotta think, full two weeks, but really three weeks because of that week 17, that week 18 game.

• 45:19Bill Simmons?

  Trey Lance.

• 45:20Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 45:20Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that was an exhibition game.

• 45:22Speaker 01

  Been resting, home field advantage, out of control. Besides the Jacksonville game, they didn't lose at home. So on paper, and they've got a Super Bowl winning head coach and Sean Payton, who is a master motivator and doesn't let these guys take their foot off the pedal.

• 45:36Bill Simmons?

  And they're, and they're healthy.

• 45:37Speaker 01

  And they're all healthy.

• 45:39Bill Simmons?

  Healthy.

• 45:40Speaker 01

  So.

• 45:40Bill Simmons?

  It seems like their biggest problem is like Patrick Surtain is awesome. Who do we put him on? There's nobody left on the Bills.

• 45:47Speaker 01

  Right.

• 45:47Bill Simmons?

  How do we use this advantage? We don't even have a number one receiver to throw him on.

• 45:51Speaker 01

  I say all this, and I'm with you because you and I rode the Mahomes train all those other years in the playoffs, and it was always the right move. This guy is Superman, and it's his time, and he's been knocking on the door for years, and the path is clear. I, I can't pick against him, dude.

• 46:11Bill Simmons?

  Wow. Wow. I mean, we can get into the X's and O's. I was expecting, I spent a year with Sean Payton, and this guy's built for this moment. Nope. Didn't do it at all.

• 46:23Speaker 02

  I mean, you know, the game plan, the Bills just have to be close in the fourth quarter. And then let Josh be Josh. That's it. That's the game plan.

• 46:33Bill Simmons?

  Allen has

• 46:33Speaker 01

  It's a fun game.

• 46:35Bill Simmons?

  Allen has five playoff losses, four to Mahomes, one to Deshaun Watson, who was good.

• 46:42Speaker 01

  Wild card round.

• 46:43Bill Simmons?

  So

• 46:44Speaker 02

  That was an overtime game.

• 46:45Bill Simmons?

  It was like baby Josh.

• 46:46Speaker 01

  Crazy lateral.

• 46:48Speaker 02

  And they'll timer.

• 46:51Bill Simmons?

  My fears for this game from the Denver side, other than Josh Allen. I thought there was some weird game management stuff with Peyton this year as as good of a coach as he is. And I think culture setter, motivator, all that stuff. There was some over aggressiveness at times, some just kind of do the thing you should be doing. I, to me, like, I love RJ Harvey, 90 plus yards rushing in this game is plus 400 on Fandel. After watching that Jacksonville game where they should have had 200 plus yards in that game.

• 47:23Speaker 01

  I think they averaged seven yards a carry.

• 47:26Bill Simmons?

  I just like, just feed RJ Harvey, have Bo Nix doing some design rollouts, like just fucking run and keep the ball. And don't let Josh Allen have it. Have these long ass drives. Then on top of it, no safeties, Courtland Sutton, 30 yard pass reception, plus 195. I like him hitting one.

• 47:46Bill Simmons?

  I, I think Denver's just, it would have to be a collapse on their part combined with Josh late, right?

• 47:52Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 47:53Bill Simmons?

  So it'd have to be like that Jaguars game where it's halftime and you're like, fuck, they blew it. They, they left all this shit on the table. Now I know where this is going.

• 48:02Speaker 01

  They've also, like Chicago, have won a ton of one score games in miraculous fashion. And as we've seen time and time again, sometimes that, that stuff wears down towards the end of the season and it doesn't happen in the playoffs. So, you know, they've won all these games. They were winning at home. That Jaguars loss was real. They got beaten in their building and A lot of these guys, they're young still. Now, they played Buffalo in the playoffs last year. Bo Nix, they threw for 140 yards and completed 55% of his passes, but that was in Buffalo, totally different circumstances. I don't know. Is it their time? Might be, or it's not.

• 48:40Speaker 02

  The Broncos.

• 48:41Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 48:41Speaker 02

  I mean, that's, this is the fascinating piece of it to me, right? They, if they run, then they don't need very much from, from Bo Nix. And if the Bills play their, their standard, like, you know, too high, and they take away the explosives, and they throw the, the, the skies coverages, right? I mean, because McDermott is a good defensive coordinator.

• 49:04Speaker 01

  And Bobby Babbage is there, is calling the D. And like, he's really good, too.

• 49:08Speaker 02

  Yeah, like, they, they can throw a defense at Bo Nix that will sort of bottle him up. But if, if the Broncos can establish the run, that you don't need very much out of Bo Nix. You just need him to really not turn the ball over.

• 49:21Speaker 01

  Now, Bill, I heard you on with Sal, and you said, you know, you're kicking yourself. But then again, the outlier is the Eagles' Chiefs' Super Bowl last year, where we all took Mahomes, because we're like, on paper, it should be the Eagles. Did you not? You took Philly?

• 49:36Bill Simmons?

  I took, I took Mahomes. And the lesson I learned from that is, if literally the only reason I have is the quarterback, and I don't want to bet against him, that's not a good enough reason.

• 49:49Speaker 01

  Well, then you're taking Denver.

• 49:50Bill Simmons?

  I think I'm leaning toward Denver House. Where are you leaning?

• 49:53Speaker 02

  Unfortunately, I already bet on Denver. I like Denver. I understand exactly the harm that I'm putting myself in front of. You and I have been terrible, terrible.

• 50:04Bill Simmons?

  It's fine.

• 50:05Speaker 02

  At this.

• 50:05Bill Simmons?

  We, everyone has a bad year from time to time.

• 50:08Speaker 02

  I, I still don't think that our analysis of the Jacksonville situation was wrong.

• 50:13Bill Simmons?

  And the Packers one wasn't either. We should have hit both of those.

• 50:16Speaker 02

  I mean, we should have had a minimum, been three and three across the six games. You had New England pegged perfectly.

• 50:23Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, and then I threw the dumb under. I know.

• 50:25Speaker 02

  I told you not to do that.

• 50:26Bill Simmons?

  I know you did.

• 50:27Speaker 02

  We, we took the, we had the Panthers figured out. That was a good angle.

• 50:31Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 50:31Speaker 02

  Stupid Packers. They had that game in, in hand. But let's ask Shreks, we, we, we moved on too quickly. Who is Green Bay trading Matt LaFleur to? And what will he fetch it in return? So he could be a head coach somewhere.

• 50:43Speaker 01

  That's a good idea. He still doesn't have an extension. Now, he's going into the final year of his contract, which none of these guys.

• 50:49Speaker 02

  Still doesn't have an extension. Oh, really?

• 50:52Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 50:52Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 50:53Speaker 01

  They didn't fire him, obviously.

• 50:55Speaker 02

  Right, because they can get something in trade.

• 50:57Speaker 01

  New, new president, Sky had policy who's trying to put his imprint on things. And the truth of the matter is this, it's like, they're talking about a deal. LaFleur is not one of the higher paid coaches. Like, there are some head coaches in this league that have been hired in the last few years that make significantly more money than him. So he's got a point, too. The question is, can we win without you? Or do we just suck it up and pay the extra six, seven million that you think you need? That's going to be one that they have to decide, but it, it, time is ticking. Like, you're going to do this when? So, I don't know. I think he stays, but I could be wrong.

• 51:31Speaker 02

  All right, all right.

• 51:32Bill Simmons?

  House, Bo Nix, 25-plus yards rushing.

• 51:36Speaker 02

  Love it.

• 51:36Bill Simmons?

  Harvey plus 90. And the Denver money line, that's 12 to 1 as the same game.

• 51:41Speaker 02

  Let's go. That's it. That's how we're playing it. Well, I mean, well, I'll take the L. It'll be the second week of going against Josh Allen in the year that the AFC is the most wide open it's been in his entire career. And he is the best quarterback in that conference. And here we are going against him two straight weeks.

• 51:59Bill Simmons?

  A weaker team than they were a week ago. In a game they should have lost. He's more banged up than he was. I just can't, I don't think they have enough. I, this is disrespectful to Denver to think that somebody can go in there with Shakir and Cooks and Samuel. So the thing we didn't talk about was could James Cook actually cook in this game? Because Jacksonville shut him down, but.

• 52:24Speaker 01

  Well, Denver's defense is really good, too, against the run.

• 52:27Bill Simmons?

  And healthy. I just think this is a bad spot for Buffalo. And it's this, to me, if I had to pick the narratives, Buffalo wins, the narrative is, oh, my God, Josh Allen, this is your superhero. The other version is Denver just kind of controls the game, beats them, and then we turn into a, they're not doing right by Josh Allen. And we do that whole thing.

• 52:47Speaker 01

  Why didn't they get a wide receiver?

• 52:48Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, why did, this is their fault. They wasted a great Josh Allen season. All right, so we're going to go Denver minus one and a half. I honestly think that line is, is, I think this should be Denver by three.

• 53:01Speaker 01

  Okay, then definitely take it minus one and a half if you can.

• 53:04Bill Simmons?

  Next game, Seahawks, seven.

• 53:07Bill Simmons?

  Over the depleted 49ers who are just losing guys left and right and are under attack by electromagnetic rays at their practice facility.

• 53:17Speaker 01

  Has an article ever gone more viral?

• 53:19Bill Simmons?

  No, it's it's amazing. Kittle out. We've lost him. Trent Williams playing, but just is like, I'm just not healthy. I don't feel great at all.

• 53:30Speaker 02

  Gave up six pressures last week.

• 53:31Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I'm just not not doing good. Seattle.

• 53:37Bill Simmons?

  Two week rest.

• 53:38Speaker 01

  Well, major news today.

• 53:39Bill Simmons?

  Killed this team and yet the Sam Darnold comes out of nowhere with a weird abdominal injury.

• 53:44Speaker 02

  Middle of the day on a on a Wednesday, Thursday.

• 53:47Speaker 01

  At practice.

• 53:48Speaker 02

  What are we? Come on. He's running with the theragun.

• 53:52Speaker 01

  It's listed as an oblique. And Clint Kubiak said in his press conference, who's the offensive coordinator, that Drew Locke took a lot of snaps with the ones. Certainly, and I was with Orlovsky today in Bristol and I'm like, I don't know enough about like each injury. I'm like, oblique. He's like horrible for a quarterback. Horrible. It hurts to run. Every throwing motion like it's it's as bad as one of the arm injuries.

• 54:18Bill Simmons?

  Well, that's why we have drugs, shrinks.

• 54:20Speaker 01

  That's what I said. Is that that's something you can just shoot up?

• 54:22Bill Simmons?

  That's why we have Toradol.

• 54:24Speaker 02

  I don't know. Can you get it? Oh.

• 54:27Bill Simmons?

  House, I have a question for you, House.

• 54:29Speaker 02

  Go ahead.

• 54:29Bill Simmons?

  Sam Darnold versus Drew Locke. How much of a drop off is that for you? If I have a better defense and I'm just gonna run the ball and at bare, I'm gonna ask my QB to do anything.

• 54:38Speaker 02

  So no joke. What do you think the line will be? Let's play guess the lines. What will the line be if Drew Drew Locke is announced Saturday morning as the quarterback of the Seattle Seahawks?

• 54:49Bill Simmons?

  I think it drops to Seattle four and a half.

• 54:52Speaker 01

  Yeah, five and a half, four and a half. Sure.

• 54:53Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I think we go into the Vegas zone.

• 54:55Speaker 02

  Only a point and a half, only two and a half. That's the difference between Darnold?

• 54:59Bill Simmons?

  Because I don't think for this game.

• 55:02Bill Simmons?

  So one of my ideas, you'll love this, House, was a parlay with this game.

• 55:08Speaker 02

  I'm out. Go ahead.

• 55:13Bill Simmons?

  Seattle money line under 49 and a half.

• 55:16Speaker 02

  No, sir. No, no, thank you. No.

• 55:20Bill Simmons?

  I mean, the bet I would really, we're not allowed to do this in the contest, but Seattle money line with Kenneth Walker to rush for 60 plus yards, plus 109.

• 55:28Speaker 02

  Like that.

• 55:29Bill Simmons?

  Like that bet in general.

• 55:30Speaker 02

  We'll bet that. I'm gonna bet that.

• 55:31Speaker 01

  I'm not betting. I'm just. The contest, no, but in real life, yes.

• 55:34Bill Simmons?

  I'm willing to be talked out of it over the next four minutes. I just don't want to take the Niners. I don't see it. I don't, I just can't believe how many injuries they had.

• 55:44Speaker 02

  We, we just did this. Yeah.

• 55:47Bill Simmons?

  I thought they got dominated. I thought that game should have been like 30 to three.

• 55:51Speaker 01

  174 yards of offense. It was the least.

• 55:54Bill Simmons?

  Couldn't do anything.

• 55:55Speaker 01

  Kyle, a Kyle Shanahan offense has ever had.

• 55:57Bill Simmons?

  And by the way, if I'm Seattle and I'm their fans, like this is it, man. This is now lined up to win the Super Bowl, right?

• 56:06Speaker 01

  But wait, look who they'd beat. They'd have to beat, let's say hypothetically, their arch rival Niners and then their arch rival Rams in their building.

• 56:13Bill Simmons?

  An absolutely beatable Rams team playing their third straight playoff road game, right? A team that they know really well. And then AFC, like, are they scared of any of those teams? Like, they have the best, they have the best unit of any, I sound like I'm a Seahawks fan. I'm just like, I just feel like this is laid out for them. They, they could easily fuck it up. But if I'm a Seahawks fan, I'm like, holy shit. We might be able to win the Super Bowl, like for real. Our defense could just dominate the Niners this round. We go to the next one. We get the Rams at home, fine. And then we didn't play Bo Nix in the Super Bowl or, you know, this Pats team that has.

• 56:48Speaker 02

  Josh Allen.

• 56:49Bill Simmons?

  The team in the league or Josh Allen with no receivers. Like, I like my chances against anybody.

• 56:55Speaker 02

  I, I want to try and make a case for, for San Francisco. I want to try. I want to see what you think about this. So first of all, it's not like Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers had an infinite amount of time to prepare for the Eagles defense. And yet he looked Vic Fangio right in the face.

• 57:14Bill Simmons?

  No doubt.

• 57:14Speaker 02

  And said, eat this, big boy. Uh, Robinson, deep, over the top, twice in the first half. Nope, nobody had him on the bingo card. You know, trick, trick plays.

• 57:28Speaker 01

  Reverse sky bang is what that play was called.

• 57:33Speaker 02

  I have some ideas for that one.

• 57:37Bill Simmons?

  How's he stand that tonight?

• 57:41Speaker 02

  The circumstances are so upsetting.

• 57:45Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, Netflix just canceled us.

• 57:47Speaker 02

  No, they encourage that.

• 57:51Speaker 02

  But the question is, he knows Mike McDonald very well now, right? He's very familiar with what Seattle's bringing to the table. He's seen it. They had, over the course of the two games that they played, 17 drives on offense that were non kneel downs. Of those 17 drives, nine of them reached, they were inside the Seattle 40 yard line. 17 drives, nine of which landed inside the Seattle 40 yard line. And they scored a grand total of 20 points over those, those two games, right? There were missed field goals, there was blocked field goal, there were turnovers, all inside that 40 yard line.

• 58:35Speaker 02

  So there is a demonstrated ability for San Francisco to kind of get into the scoring zone, but they couldn't capitalize in any way, shape or form. Again, I'm just trying to make a case here to make sure that we're thinking it through.

• 58:51Bill Simmons?

  There's a couple more manifesto rules here for this. Beware of the nobody believes in us team. And that's the Niners and all flashing colors and neon. That's rule three. Rule six, never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe they have a chance to win. I can see them winning. I don't think it's inconceivable because more because the Seahawks offense. I could just see throwing a turd sandwich out there and it just being like a 10 to seven game in the fourth quarter or something.

• 59:16Speaker 01

  It was four months ago, but they beat the Seahawks in Seattle, week one.

• 59:19Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 59:19Speaker 01

  They've done it.

• 59:20Bill Simmons?

  I don't trust the Seahawks offense at all. Right? If you can just like limit JSN a little bit, then they're going to have to run the ball and.

• 59:29Speaker 02

  They have been running the ball and they've been doing it successfully, like the last four games.

• 59:33Bill Simmons?

  That's the case.

• 59:33Speaker 02

  They established the run.

• 59:34Bill Simmons?

  That's why I like them heading into this podcast because I think they can run on the Niners. But then there's the, the when in doubt, gravitate toward the one pick that screws over the most gamblers and experts. That's a Seahawks tease or money parlay. That's the logical bet. Everyone has it. I might even have it right now. I might've already done it. But people are just like, oh, cool. I can move the Seahawks down to one and then I'll do other stuff. And that makes me nervous.

• 1:00:01Speaker 01

  Kyle Shanahan, to House's point, is a mad genius. And whether or not you think he's good in the late stages of a game, or a Super Bowl, or a big spot, no one prepares and out schemes these defensive coaches better than Kyle. So you're banking on Kyle and Purdy, who's been outstanding the last few weeks, with the exception of the Seattle game. And you're just thinking that they're going to find a way. Again, this is not X's and O's. This is not, this is purely, you're betting on people and you're betting on Kyle Shanahan to out coach Mike McDonald and

• 1:00:34Bill Simmons?

  And you're betting on the nobody believes in us factor.

• 1:00:36Speaker 01

  And the nobody believes in us. But I would say this.

• 1:00:38Bill Simmons?

  There's one other thing you're betting on. Sorry to interrupt you.

• 1:00:41Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:00:41Bill Simmons?

  The Mike McDonald, we've seen it a couple of times. The underwear gets a little tight for him.

• 1:00:49Bill Simmons?

  This is his first playoff game.

• 1:00:51Speaker 01

  Right?

• 1:00:52Bill Simmons?

  His first playoff game.

• 1:00:53Speaker 01

  This is his first playoff.

• 1:00:55Bill Simmons?

  I'll take the points. And I don't know if I 100% trust him. Anyway, go ahead.

• 1:01:00Speaker 01

  Like San Francisco has, playing completely free.

• 1:01:04Bill Simmons?

  They're fucking not, San Francisco's not wearing underwear anymore. They're just fucking free balling it.

• 1:01:09Speaker 02

  You can tell Bobby Sala's swinging that baby maker every which way.

• 1:01:14Speaker 01

  No doubt.

• 1:01:14Bill Simmons?

  And they are, I don't think there's more of a nobody believes in us team that we've had that might actually be able to back it up in a while.

• 1:01:21Speaker 01

  And I would add, you know, they were pissed as hell at the league. And I, but when I tell you furious at the league that they chose ratings and the thought of a Chicago and LA market Sunday night.

• 1:01:37Speaker 02

  It's fucking outrageous.

• 1:01:39Bill Simmons?

  It's, it is bad.

• 1:01:40Speaker 01

  Doing what's right and what's fair and what seems to be

• 1:01:43Speaker 02

  Integrity of the game.

• 1:01:44Speaker 01

  Health and safety, all this stuff. You would think you wouldn't want a team playing on six days when they can play, another team gets eight days. So all that. But guess what? Jed Yurk, John Lynch, Sala, Shanahan, they get the players going. Hey, the league doesn't want us. The league doesn't think we're a big enough market team. They don't want us to be good. They, we're getting screwed again. We're getting screwed. And the players, they hear that, they respond, and they galvanize. Now, whether or not that plays out on the field, that's a different question. But I know that the motivational tactics are at play here.

• 1:02:18Bill Simmons?

  Well, and when you go back to that last game. Trent Williams didn't play in that game, right?

• 1:02:25Speaker 01

  Nope.

• 1:02:25Bill Simmons?

  Yep. Kittle played, but Kittle's been in and out all year and they, I do feel like they can replace some of his production. Pierce saw.

• 1:02:32Speaker 02

  Tungus is a stud. Get every Tungus.

• 1:02:35Speaker 01

  He is good.

• 1:02:36Speaker 02

  Now.

• 1:02:36Bill Simmons?

  Pierce saw, Pierce saw this week?

• 1:02:39Speaker 01

  They're hoping Pierce saw goes. Fred Warner is not ready yet. He'll be ready, they're hoping next week.

• 1:02:46Bill Simmons?

  I don't know, House, he might've won me over in this one.

• 1:02:49Speaker 02

  Well.

• 1:02:50Speaker 01

  Straight up or with the points?

• 1:02:51Bill Simmons?

  No, with the plus seven. I just don't.

• 1:02:53Speaker 02

  We have to make a, a pick. I like this, uh, uh, teams playing on a short week like the 49ers against a team off the by nine and six against the spread in, in recent memory.

• 1:03:05Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. The, the third time play, I feel like that's always gets weird in some way, but I like the, uh,

• 1:03:13Bill Simmons?

  I don't even think, I mentioned this a couple of weeks ago, cause I always text Danny and Mina about the Seahawks. I don't even think they fully trust the Seahawks. Like the people that have watched them week in, week out, I don't think they trust their offense. So you're throwing in this Sam Darnold abdominal thing that we know about on Thursday, which is like, okay, they're not going to need him that much, but they're still going to need him. We know he's hurt.

• 1:03:33Speaker 01

  48 hours.

• 1:03:34Bill Simmons?

  They play in 48 hours. It's clearly something.

• 1:03:37Speaker 01

  Not to be, not to be so obvious.

• 1:03:39Speaker 02

  So number one seeds favored by seven or more, 21, 25 and one against the spread.

• 1:03:46Speaker 02

  Just, just keep doing it. I mean, we could just keep pounding the.

• 1:03:49Bill Simmons?

  And the part that I mentioned earlier, that it is so lined up for Seattle, so lined up for the next couple of weeks that it almost makes you nervous. Well, maybe we take the points. Uh, for this next game, I have a featured bet and it's a featured bet from, uh, Fanduel's sports book because they have turned playoff mode on. Fanduel's got it all. They have same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in lives, offers to boost your winnings every game day. And, uh, my Patriots are playing and they wanted me to do a three teamer, same game parlay. Which I was happily obliged.

• 1:04:24Bill Simmons?

  Here's where I landed, cause I have to have the Pats winning it and we'll talk about the game in a second. Ramon Dre Stevenson over two and a half receptions.

• 1:04:34Bill Simmons?

  More and more as the season went along, he's gotten better as a receiver. Drake trusts him. There's a couple where he's like in trouble and he dumps it off to him. They'll have a design wheel route for him. I just feel like he's getting three. And then Drake for 225 plus passing yards. Everyone's terrified of this Texans defense. After that Pittsburgh game. I have some thoughts on that, but anyway, that total price right now is plus 370. You can use your 30% SGP profit boost token, getting even higher payout. Tail my bet. Trust me, don't throw away the last eight, 19 weeks. Tail my bet, make your own bet on another playoff game. The possibilities are endless during playoff mode.

• 1:05:17Bill Simmons?

  With Fandel. All right, Patriots favored by three.

• 1:05:22Bill Simmons?

  No Nico Collins, it looks like.

• 1:05:24Speaker 01

  Likely out concussion protocol.

• 1:05:26Speaker 02

  He can't possibly.

• 1:05:27Bill Simmons?

  You can't have a concussion and play five days later. That's nuts.

• 1:05:30Speaker 02

  I don't, it's like the playoff concussion protocol. Let's not do that. Let's not do that.

• 1:05:35Bill Simmons?

  Here's why I became confident about the game, guys. Josh McDaniel, a press conference this morning, just raving about the Texans defense. These guys are this, the fastest defense we've seen all year. They don't make mistakes. We're going to need our best offensive game of the year to compete in this one. Just doing the, just doing the butter upper team. I'm like, I don't believe that for a second. I think.

• 1:05:59Speaker 02

  I agree with all that, by the way.

• 1:06:00Bill Simmons?

  It's a zone team.

• 1:06:02Speaker 02

  I'm persuaded.

• 1:06:03Bill Simmons?

  I think they think they can throw on them. And I just, I've seen them do this before. They rave about the other team and then they meanwhile have five things up their sleeve. I think they're gonna move the ball.

• 1:06:14Speaker 01

  How, how does New England score on this Texans defense, Bill?

• 1:06:19Bill Simmons?

  Drake May.

• 1:06:21Speaker 01

  Couple of big deep shots to Booty.

• 1:06:23Bill Simmons?

  We've seen the Texans get beaten by deep shots. It happened in that Chargers game.

• 1:06:27Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:06:28Speaker 02

  Riley Leonard.

• 1:06:29Bill Simmons?

  We saw Rogers.

• 1:06:29Speaker 02

  And Alex Pierce.

• 1:06:31Bill Simmons?

  We saw Rogers because a lot of times they're just rushing for it. We saw Rogers with opportunities to run where he didn't because he's old. Drake May will run.

• 1:06:41Bill Simmons?

  And I just think the paths are way better than the Steelers. But that Steelers team, in hindsight, maybe we should have predicted this house when we actually made our picks. But the Ravens game was the Super Bowl for them. The moment they, and they still almost had a chance. It was 7-6. They still had a chance.

• 1:06:58Speaker 02

  We weren't on the wrong side of the analysis. They just ran out of steam and that defense eventually got them. They were not good enough. That's right.

• 1:07:08Speaker 01

  I was pushing you guys hard to pick the Steelers that day for the Ravens game. I felt vindicated and then I picked them again to beat the Texans and I felt like an idiot. So.

• 1:07:16Bill Simmons?

  The big issue with the Pats is the left side of the line and Campbell not being good. He's taken some heat. He got a little salty in an interview. But I also think that they can, there's stuff you can do. You can put an extra tight end on there. You can roll coverage away from Will Anderson. There's, there's things in play. Shreigs, what do you think?

• 1:07:35Speaker 01

  I've seen the Texans defense up close now twice this season. Seattle for a doubleheader, Monday night football. They lost the game, but they crushed Sam Darnold. I think they picked him off three times and they were in the backfield the entire game. And then I was at Monday night football. I am blown away by all three levels of this defense that I am going to give you the biggest hyperbole of all. This might be like the 2000 Ravens. They might not need to do anything on offense. They might just win games 13-10, 16-13. They might, we might wake up, you know, the Monday after the Super Bowl and it's fricking Will Anderson on a float at Disneyland. Like this defense is that good? They're that fast?

• 1:08:17Speaker 01

  And I just don't see how, you know, I just don't see how the Patriots score enough to beat them. And the only way they lose to the Patriots, and I know they're a young team on the road playoffs,

• 1:08:28Speaker 01

  is that their quarterback holds them back and their offense just isn't good enough and they give the ball away. Because if they just protect the ball, I, I think you're underestimating this defense in a serious way. I think it's historically good.

• 1:08:39Bill Simmons?

  Definitely not underestimating, but my question is.

• 1:08:44Bill Simmons?

  This Texans offense going against the Pats defense, which was really, really good last week and is healthy and is a different defense with Milton Williams. I don't think they're gonna be able to run the ball and the pass at all. Is that gonna be a worse matchup than Drake May, who's been one of the best players in the league all year, a really good offensive coordinator, playing at home, cold weather that they're used to, Houston plays in a dome, all of these other factors that go into it, that Houston defense would have to overcome all of that. They were able to do it on Monday night, but that game, like Pittsburgh blew that game. They were-

• 1:09:16Speaker 01

  No, 7-6 in the third quarter.

• 1:09:18Bill Simmons?

  They were in it. Like Stroud was like broken. What makes you think Stroud's not gonna be broken this week? What do you think, House?

• 1:09:25Speaker 02

  It really comes down to how many plays do you think that Houston defense can make? Because I don't see a scenario under which Houston establishes any kind of offensive rhythm whatsoever. The difference-

• 1:09:40Bill Simmons?

  Especially without Collins.

• 1:09:42Speaker 01

  Agreed.

• 1:09:43Bill Simmons?

  It's like, oh, we're replacing with Christian Kirk. Christian Kirk has bounced around for three years? Get out of here.

• 1:09:48Speaker 02

  I don't think we're properly rating the significance of Milton Williams. I mean, I know you, Bill Simmons, understand the difference.

• 1:09:56Bill Simmons?

  I've been saying it all year. He left the defense and everyone could run on us.

• 1:10:00Speaker 02

  Yeah. So, so when he's in the, in the lineup, 3.8 yards per carry for opposing running backs, that's the second best run defense in the NFL at that rate. They give up 83 yards a game. The high running back rush when Milton Williams was in the lineup was 58 yards and he got hurt in that game. That's how that running back got to 58.

• 1:10:25Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, Marks is, Marks is over as 55 and a half and I think it's dropped four yards during the week.

• 1:10:31Speaker 01

  Don't you feel like Willie Marks, he has a season ending injury every game and then just plays the next week?

• 1:10:35Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, then he's fine.

• 1:10:36Speaker 02

  Right. You have to, he misses four carries because he's in the blue tent. Four to six carries.

• 1:10:41Bill Simmons?

  And they have Chubb as a backup. I don't think they're gonna be able to run the ball at all. And I think Stroud is gonna be in a lot of trouble. Keep going, House.

• 1:10:48Speaker 02

  Well, that, I mean, that's it. I, I just want to make the case for the New England defense. Um, and how the version of this defense, Gonzalez was a full participant in practice today, Thursday. Uh, Tonga's back. He was, what, how do you say his name? Chris, Kyris? I don't know how to say it. Tonga, Tonga, the defensive tackle. We call him Tonga. That's part of the, um, you know, the, the, the run defense as well. And I think that they can get a little bit of a pass rush going as well. They were in Justin Herbert's lap. All, all game Sunday night. They certainly. Yeah.

• 1:11:21Bill Simmons?

  Also, Shreg, some manifesto rules this week, and you just laid out one of the, my favorites. This is the number one rule. Beware of the looked a little too good, the previous round team. This is textbook with the Texans D. Texans D was awesome all season, right? It was one of the three back. They, they went up a level against this Pittsburgh team that offensive line wasn't good. Didn't had Metcalf, that's about it. Rogers was slow.

• 1:11:49Bill Simmons?

  And that's as good as, that's as good of a situation as they're probably going to get.

• 1:11:54Speaker 01

  Texans offense was not good against the Bills, but they sacked Josh Allen, I think nine times on a Thursday night.

• 1:11:59Bill Simmons?

  Thursday night.

• 1:12:00Speaker 01

  And they won. All right. That's one. Chiefs, Chiefs season on the line in Arrowhead. Texans offense, nothing special. Stroud made a couple of plays. They eliminated the Chiefs with their defense. Like I, this, the defense travels and what's interesting is.

• 1:12:16Bill Simmons?

  Defense travels, but offensive lines do not travel. That sucks.

• 1:12:20Speaker 01

  Fair.

• 1:12:20Bill Simmons?

  And their line in the Steelers game didn't travel. It's not going to travel in New England.

• 1:12:24Speaker 01

  I think there's also, we look at those logos and I think you said this because I covered, I was in Foxborough for about three of these. And the Texans always with Matt Schaub and with whoever else used to go up there to Foxborough in a divisional round game on a Saturday night. And they just get the shit kicked out of them by the Patriots. And like, we know that visual, like it always happened. I would say. This particular group of Texans, they have been to the final four of the AFC the last two years. So it's not like they're just this neophyte team that's going in with wide eyes. Like they've banged on the door. They took the Chiefs to the wire last year.

• 1:12:58Speaker 02

  They did.

• 1:12:59Speaker 01

  And the year before that, they took the Ravens with Lamar to the wire. And if it was for a couple of plays, they could have won that game. So they're not this group of just wide eyed guys that are like the old Texans where we don't belong on the same field as Brady. If anything, they've got more experience than this Patriots team when it comes to big games.

• 1:13:16Speaker 02

  I want to hear from BS, the recipe on offense, because part of the reason why I was bullish on the Chargers last week, the case I made.

• 1:13:25Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:13:26Speaker 02

  That defense was excellent. And, and that was the first top 10 defense that the Patriots had faced in, in quite a while, maybe the entire season, depending on the metrics you want to use.

• 1:13:36Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:13:36Speaker 02

  And this defense is an entirely different class altogether. Like, one of the props that I'm already on is Drake May over 35 and a half rushing yards. I don't know if it's going to still be there.

• 1:13:48Speaker 01

  I like that one.

• 1:13:49Speaker 02

  It's, it might go even further up.

• 1:13:50Speaker 01

  Scramble yards.

• 1:13:51Speaker 02

  Of 40, of course. And, and those scramble yards are what were really the only thing available to Aaron Rodgers. But the problem for the Patriots is because Houston doesn't blitz, and they don't have to blitz, they just put four man pressure, they take away the middle of the football field because their linebackers can all go back. And, and you're, you're saying to the Patriots, you know, who's going to beat us in the middle of the, the football field when we, when we have that, we're going to take that away from you. And I absolutely adore your Remandre play. So that, that's one of the ways, right?

• 1:14:27Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:14:27Speaker 02

  He, he's, he's, he's been built in. I like his yardage. I like his reception overs. But let me hear the recipe from your perspective.

• 1:14:35Speaker 01

  All right. The viewers probably noticed there was a little edit there is because the power on my street went out and I lost power for like five minutes right as I was about to answer House's question about why I thought the Patriots could move the ball on the Texans.

• 1:14:49Speaker 02

  Symbolic.

• 1:14:50Speaker 01

  I don't know if that was an open.

• 1:14:55Bill Simmons?

  I wish I had a better answer than this. I really believe in Drake May. And I felt what he did in the second half of that Chargers game against, I think, a good defense. Where he just kind of figured it out as the game went along. I think he got out all his like rookie, rookie C leg, playoff rookie C leg stuff. And I don't think he was happy with how he played. All the dialogue all week was Drake's gotta be like, just like slightly nudging him. And I think he's gonna love playing in this game against Houston. Like, I think that, I think he likes this shit. It's like, oh, this is the best defense. We've seen teams move the ball on, on Houston. And I don't, the 2000 Ravens, I get it. You can, that feels like a little bit of over and over reaction, Triggs. I know, it's hyperbole, I know.

• 1:15:39Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, after, after a Steelers team that we've seen other defenses do that to, you know? The Browns. I just like the, the, our defenses' chances against their offense as much as I think the reverses. So they'll patch it together. The McDaniel's, I have one crazy play. Henry will be involved. Drake will use his legs to save some plays. That's what Rogers couldn't do last week. He didn't save any plays. You know?

• 1:16:09Bill Simmons?

  I have a bet house that you're gonna absolutely love.

• 1:16:13Bill Simmons?

  Love or hate?

• 1:16:15Bill Simmons?

  No, this is a FanDuel prop. Okay, great. I'm gonna love it. First half of the game is a tie.

• 1:16:22Bill Simmons?

  Why? Why though? Why? Patriots, no, this is a for Ringer 107. First half of the game is a tie. So it's like 3-3, 6-6, 0-0, 7-7, whatever. Patriots win.

• 1:16:35Bill Simmons?

  17 to 1. Wow. So you're just rooting for like a 3-3 first half and then? Do it. I thought those odds were great. Now that you're talking about it, we gotta do it. This is my favorite bet of the entire second round. CJ Stroud to throw a pick, minus 125.

• 1:16:57Speaker 02

  Fine.

• 1:16:58Bill Simmons?

  He doesn't throw a pick, I'll be disappointed. So Shriggs is in on the Texans. You're in on, there's a bunch of manifesto rules against you, including um, the law of Lombardi. Your guy Lombardi, bad offensive lines don't travel. Just throwing that one out. We're just throwing out the dome team outside. We're just throwing out CJ Stroud. Looked like he was having a, like a legitimate meltdown last week. It's only gonna be worse. Obviously I have to take the Pats, but I, I think the line's fair and I like the minus three. How's you agree?

• 1:17:31Speaker 02

  I'm fine with it. Um, because I can't come up with on the offensive side of the ball for Houston.

• 1:17:40Bill Simmons?

  A way for them to get 14 points?

• 1:17:42Speaker 02

  There's no rhythm. Like there's like, you know, I might just play like on the pregame show.

• 1:17:48Speaker 01

  You guys watched Monday, Jalen Petry, like a scud missile on every single, I mean, they were, there was not a second, they were amazing.

• 1:17:54Speaker 02

  It's Christian Kirk and it's, you know, it's, it's all these guys. Yeah. Petry was amazing. That's, that's absolutely.

• 1:18:00Bill Simmons?

  It was like Shriggs went to the Boogie Nights set during the filming of Spanish Pantalones and he's like, you don't understand this Dirk Diggler. This guy's, I was there. This guy is the best porn star I've ever seen.

• 1:18:14Speaker 02

  He was too.

• 1:18:15Speaker 01

  Am I Scotty in the corner?

• 1:18:16Bill Simmons?

  He would go doggy style. He'd go straight up like.

• 1:18:19Speaker 02

  Really? He really was that though. That's the problem. Pete, Pete's right.

• 1:18:25Bill Simmons?

  I mean Roller Girl, Roller Girl did say he was the goat.

• 1:18:30Bill Simmons?

  All right. Last game, the most fun one and the one I actually feel the most strongly about. Bears, Bears uh, getting three and a half at home against the Rams.

• 1:18:38Speaker 01

  Can I set the table for you and your listeners, both of you guys?

• 1:18:41Speaker 02

  Just cut, oh, let's do it. Let's.

• 1:18:42Speaker 01

  So a little bit was made out of it and Stephen A actually hit on it a touch, but like.

• 1:18:49Speaker 01

  That handshake and all that mother F, mother F stuff from Ben Johnson did not go over well with the McVeigh tree, if you will, and around the league. Mike LaFleur is Matt LaFleur's little brother. He's the offensive coordinator for the Rams. And Sean's best friend in coaching is Matt LaFleur. So when you do the utter disrespect and the brazen locker room video where you're saying F the Packers, F that coaching staff and the social media team clicks go, send it, put out in the world. And then the next day, when you've got 24 hours to really think about it, to say, no, I'm fine with what I said and my owner's

• 1:19:30Speaker 01

  got my back on that, too. It's, it's the stuff that I know you and Sal were talking about. We were like, it's the stuff that I live for. It's like, this is the, the, the, the WWE part of this where this actual personality is involved. And like, I think McVeigh wants to kick the snot out of Ben Johnson. And I think Ben Johnson, who's beaten McVeigh the last two times when Detroit played the Rams, has no problem with that. I'll beat the snot out of you. Like, I love these two guys. Two young, alpha, offensive minds, like, going at it in this game. I can't wait. Wow. Shreks got legitimately aroused. I did.

• 1:20:05Speaker 02

  Well, I'm, I'm right there with him. I love that shit so much. And Shreks, you just put the, the hairs on my neck. No, I did get a nice haircut.

• 1:20:12Speaker 01

  Put them revenge.

• 1:20:13Speaker 02

  Let's go, man. Let's go.

• 1:20:15Speaker 01

  In a league where every coach hugs the other coach and they give, they give the jerseys.

• 1:20:19Speaker 02

  Great effort, great effort.

• 1:20:21Speaker 01

  The, you know, Tua loses to, to the Steelers on a Monday night game and is seen there hugging Jalen Ramsey trading a jersey. Like, that's the stuff that, this is the opposite. These guys do not like each other right now. And I think that's great. What's your take on the game, Hoss?

• 1:20:37Speaker 02

  So I can't get past.

• 1:20:41Speaker 02

  The Bears terrible run defense. That's the starting point for me.

• 1:20:48Speaker 01

  Where you start.

• 1:20:49Speaker 02

  It might be the ending point as well.

• 1:20:53Speaker 02

  The ability of the Rams to establish the run. I think like all of this stuff with the weather and everything, we're just overdoing it. I'm just not gonna like use that as a element, but for for sure. It's the case like the Rams can run the football. They have one of the best run block win rate, you know, percentages across their number two in that. All three of their their guys, Jackson, you know, he's playing McLendon. It looks like they're getting Kevin Dotson back.

• 1:21:26Speaker 01

  Dotson is getting back. That's a big deal. They haven't had him since Seattle. He's big.

• 1:21:32Speaker 02

  He's big. He's huge. I mean, he's huge for their for their run, but they've been doing this two headed run monster here with some success over the last, like, you know, six, seven games. And this is the way that they keep their defense off the field. Cause their defense since week 13.

• 1:21:50Speaker 01

  It's a.

• 1:21:52Speaker 02

  Kind of trash, kind of, you know, I don't, I don't want it to be a shootout kind of scenario where the Bears have the ball in in the fourth quarter and they need to go down to to tie or win. At some point, it feels like that luck will run out, but who the hell can say when? Who can say when?

• 1:22:10Speaker 01

  Well, here's the thing. The Bears have won in crazy fashion. They have won games in the wildest ways. And the Rams have lost games in crazy fashion, like that Seattle game, the San Francisco Thursday night game, the Carolina game.

• 1:22:24Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:22:25Speaker 01

  So like it's.

• 1:22:26Speaker 02

  Philly, did you say Philly?

• 1:22:28Speaker 01

  The polar opposites of like.

• 1:22:29Speaker 02

  The craziest.

• 1:22:30Speaker 01

  No doubt. The cold weather thing is interesting. So you could say, you know, it's gonna be eight degrees and the Bears play in that. And that's just what they are. And like the Rams are a warm weather team. I would argue Blake Corum went to Michigan, Karen Williams went to Notre Dame, Pukas went to with the BYU. Devonte Adams played at Green Bay, like I Stafford's a Detroit guy like I, I don't know.

• 1:22:52Speaker 02

  He's at least an NFC North guy.

• 1:22:54Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:22:54Speaker 02

  Like he, he's played in Chicago when it's cold before.

• 1:22:57Speaker 01

  Hundred percent. So I don't know if I make as big of a deal as it, Bill, what do you think?

• 1:23:00Bill Simmons?

  Rule number eight, beware of any aging QB in cold weather.

• 1:23:08Speaker 01

  By the way, by the way.

• 1:23:09Speaker 02

  Busted finger, right?

• 1:23:10Speaker 01

  A finger that's real.

• 1:23:12Speaker 02

  Uh oh.

• 1:23:13Bill Simmons?

  Rule number 12, beware of any team that celebrated the previous weekend's playoff victory like they just won the freaking Super Bowl.

• 1:23:20Speaker 01

  That's the Bears.

• 1:23:21Speaker 02

  There is one of those. We have one of those in this game.

• 1:23:24Bill Simmons?

  Rule number 13, don't dismiss the nerd evidence that the nerd evidence is absolutely overwhelming. So that goes both ways. Bears run defense that House mentioned.

• 1:23:34Bill Simmons?

  Can we talk about how bad the Rams special teams is and how that's gonna be the demise of their season? In eight degree weather, has there ever been a better blueprint for getting your season fucked up?

• 1:23:44Speaker 02

  God.

• 1:23:49Bill Simmons?

  I'm in on the Bears.

• 1:23:51Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 1:23:55Bill Simmons?

  Stafford in freezing cold, Rams special teams, and the Bears have just done this too many times that I'm tired of watching. I think they're gonna be able to throw on them. The eight degrees thing is meaningful. It's gonna be freezing cold. The Rams are a fucking dome team. And I know they have the profile they can do outside and run the ball and all that stuff, but I just feel like the Bears are, it's like a legitimate Michael Myers situation. You have to be up like 20 points before you feel safe. The Packers were up 20 points, or they're up 18. They basically need to go up to 20.

• 1:24:33Bill Simmons?

  I just think this has all the makings. I can see it in my head. The Collinsworth, Tarrico, oh Mike, just going nuts. Just the shots of the Bears fans freezing.

• 1:24:42Speaker 01

  The crowd.

• 1:24:43Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Bears fans just loving it. Them cutting the Rams and them being like, Jesus Christ, I've never been this cold in my life. Like, you say Stafford was from Detroit, they played indoors in Detroit.

• 1:24:54Speaker 02

  They played in the NFC. They played in Lambeau and it's overfield.

• 1:24:58Bill Simmons?

  I get it. But he lives in LA. I go back east when it's cold and it takes me like two days to, I'm just freezing the entire time. It's a real thing. The Edwards thing really wears me.

• 1:25:11Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 1:25:11Speaker 01

  How about the left tackle? They have their left tackle was a, played a great season. He's injured.

• 1:25:16Bill Simmons?

  Is he definitely out?

• 1:25:19Speaker 01

  Right now, he's trending that way.

• 1:25:22Bill Simmons?

  The hook is great. I like that this could be Rams 27 17 and I could still get a hook at the end and steal one with the Bears. And the picks have been terrible all year and it'll be more fun to root for the Bears. That's really my case. The Rams go in road game last week, road game this week, road game looming next week, I think is unless San Francisco can somehow win. So there is this other weird scenario where Rams can win, Niners win, and then all of a sudden

• 1:25:51Speaker 02

  They'll know that going in because they're good. They have extra rest for completely unnecessary

• 1:25:57Speaker 01

  When the Rams won the Super Bowl that year, they were the five seed and the Niners were the six seed. Same thing happened. They hosted them at the NFC Championship game.

• 1:26:06Bill Simmons?

  Well, can we do worst case scenarios for each side? Because I think this is the perfect game to do that.

• 1:26:11Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 1:26:11Bill Simmons?

  Worst case scenario, you bet the Bears, you can't stop the Rams running game. They just have the ball the whole time. Caleb gets it, three and out, Rams back, Puka makes his one 50 yard play that he broke three tackles. You can't get the ball back and you're like, we just want to get it to the fourth quarter and then it's 27 to 10 and you never had a chance. Right? Is that the worst case scenario for the Bears? Just the Rams on the field, 39 minutes of possession.

• 1:26:38Speaker 01

  Do you know what team scored the most points in the wild card round? The Rams. Like they score.

• 1:26:42Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:26:42Speaker 01

  They're gonna score. Can the fear is that they come out and they just put up 40 on you.

• 1:26:47Speaker 02

  When they don't play good defenses, they're they they average 32 and a half points. They've scored 27 points in 11 of their 14 games, the Rams.

• 1:26:56Bill Simmons?

  Worst case scenario for the for the Rams, couple dumb things happen. Stafford pick, miss field goal, block field goal, some sort of kick return, something. And

• 1:27:10Speaker 01

  They're just frigid.

• 1:27:11Bill Simmons?

  And it's close late and Caleb starts heating up and you have the Rams minus three and a half and you're like, fuck.

• 1:27:18Speaker 01

  You bring out that kicker.

• 1:27:19Bill Simmons?

  Why did I bet against this? This is, this team has done this seven times. The Bears done this seven times. The 19 week schedule where they've had these crazy comebacks. I just, I don't know how you can bet again. This feels like the last hurrah for them because then they go to Seattle the next week and.

• 1:27:38Bill Simmons?

  But I don't know that the hook, I wish this line, if it was two and a half, I'd like the Rams, the three and a half, I feel like it's an extra point house.

• 1:27:45Speaker 01

  What do you make of a few of the Rams assistants interviewing for head coaching jobs this week?

• 1:27:50Speaker 02

  Oh, distraction, distraction, distracting. So you have to weigh that against the, the, the Ben Johnson hatred, which, which one, which emotion is, is, is gonna carry the day?

• 1:28:03Speaker 01

  They might hate him, you know, and obviously a football sense, not personally, but like that.

• 1:28:07Speaker 02

  Yes, of course.

• 1:28:08Speaker 01

  But, but he has run the ball and done whatever he's wanted with Detroit's offense the last few times they've played also.

• 1:28:15Bill Simmons?

  Can we talk about the Rams last two months would be my other thing I wanted to bring up? Where, yeah, Carolina last week, Arizona, week 18, whatever. Uh, the Atlanta game they lose, they lose the Seattle game by one. The Detroit game is back and forth. They end up winning by seven, 41 34. Arizona, the other game, throw out. Carolina, they lose by three.

• 1:28:38Bill Simmons?

  Is there like a ton of evidence this is a juggernauty kind of team at this point? It's a, it's a, would you, would you argue a beatable team house?

• 1:28:48Speaker 02

  Of course. The Panthers almost beat them. Like they were one play away from winning that football game, the Panthers.

• 1:28:55Bill Simmons?

  So last piece of my case.

• 1:28:56Speaker 02

  They deserved it. They deserved it.

• 1:28:58Bill Simmons?

  Last piece of my case. What if Caleb went up a notch? What if he actually went up a level over these last couple of weeks and like that fourth quarter was actually like, this might be closer to who he is now versus like this guy who takes two hours to warm up. Like what if he just comes out and he's really good in this game? What if he's just awesome in this game? It's conceivable, right?

• 1:29:19Speaker 02

  Yes, of course. And we know the Bears can run. I mean, that, you know, they, they've demonstrated against defenses at least as good, uh, run defense wise as this Rams team, you know? Well, if Ben Johnson gets any kind of a weakness, it's what he did to that Philadelphia Eagles. He's like, oh, I have an advantage here.

• 1:29:41Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:29:41Speaker 02

  Let me just keep running the exact same play for 260 yards on the fucking ground. Let's see how that works out. And they just beat them.

• 1:29:49Bill Simmons?

  Last week, Coker, nine for 134.

• 1:29:53Bill Simmons?

  McMillan, five for 81. And now, and the other thing is Loveland's turned into an absolute monster in the last four weeks. I just, I really like their passing offense. I think they can throw on the Rams and keep the game. Even if the Rams score on them, I think they can come back and score on the Rams. And my whole thing is like, if, if, if you feel like either team can win, you gotta take the points, right?

• 1:30:18Speaker 02

  It's totally fine. I'm not, I'm not getting you right. The other thing you have going for you is like the first bet I made this week was Seattle Rams money line parlay. And then I, and then I put Indiana with it as well. So, you know, you know how this is gonna go.

• 1:30:31Bill Simmons?

  I feel like either team can win this game.

• 1:30:35Bill Simmons?

  Bears plus three and a half. That's my last one. Shreigs hates it.

• 1:30:39Speaker 01

  I hate it.

• 1:30:40Bill Simmons?

  I forgot one bet that I really love from the Texans game. Drake made to have the most rushing yards in the game, plus 410.

• 1:30:47Speaker 01

  Okay. More than Remondre.

• 1:30:49Bill Simmons?

  That could be like 47 yards, could be the most rushing yards in that game, right?

• 1:30:54Speaker 02

  What is it? What, what are the odds?

• 1:30:55Bill Simmons?

  It's plus 410.

• 1:30:57Speaker 02

  I gotta, I gotta take a break.

• 1:30:58Bill Simmons?

  He had 66 last week.

• 1:30:59Speaker 01

  What's the over under in that game? What's the total?

• 1:31:02Bill Simmons?

  Well, that was one, this is my last thing, talking about the picks. Over under is 40 and a half.

• 1:31:09Speaker 02

  Forty and a half.

• 1:31:09Speaker 01

  Patriots Texans?

• 1:31:10Bill Simmons?

  House, we could do Pat's money line, under 51 and a half. The game would have to do 52 points to beat it.

• 1:31:16Speaker 01

  Why is he doing this?

• 1:31:18Bill Simmons?

  He hates these bets.

• 1:31:19Speaker 02

  No, no, no.

• 1:31:21Bill Simmons?

  House, what scenario, what scenario does this go to 52 points?

• 1:31:24Speaker 02

  It doesn't fucking matter. What scenario did the Chargers and the Patriots not get to 31 points? How'd they not get to 31? It doesn't matter.

• 1:31:34Speaker 01

  You just don't do totals? You're done?

• 1:31:36Speaker 02

  No, we, I'm, we, we do do totals and we lose because of it.

• 1:31:40Bill Simmons?

  It's one of the reasons we have a 40 and 55 record in 107.

• 1:31:44Speaker 02

  I honestly, I think the the parlays, like if you took out the parlays, we'd be damn near 500.

• 1:31:50Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:31:51Speaker 02

  Like we were on the correct side many times on these on these parlays.

• 1:31:55Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to by WeatherTech. Whether it's a pumpkin spice coffee that goes splat in your seat or a weekend tailgate that leaves your trunk full of gear and who knows what, you're going to want WeatherTech in your vehicle. Whether you call it fall, autumn, or spooky season, whether the mess is your fault, the kids, the dogs, or the weather's fault, you're going to want WeatherTech. For American-made floor liners and a cargo liner that laugh in the face of fall weather, visit weatherTech.com today. This episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. In today's sports, everyone is constantly trying to outdo each other. Trick formations, infield shifts, constant rotation changes, yet it's proven time and time again that strong fundamentals are the thing that will lead you to victory. Banking, no different. While everyone else tries to outdo each other,

• 1:32:37Bill Simmons?

  PNC Bank just keeps going right down the middle with steady, calculated money moves, and the financial wins just keep coming. PNC Bank, brilliantly boring since 1865, brilliantly boring since 1865 is a registered mark of the PNC Financial Services Group, Incorporated. PNC Bank, National Association Member, FTIC. Today's Ringer 107 brought to you by FanDuel. We're picking four playoff games. House would not allow us to do any parlays. We went against Peter Schrager's advice. On all four games, I think. Is that true? No, I was with you on Seattle. Broncos minus one and a half over the Bills. When the only cases don't go against

• 1:33:20Bill Simmons?

  Josh Allen and you can't come up with a single other reason to take the team, sadly, you gotta take the Broncos. And I actually think that line should be minus three. Next one, 49ers plus seven over the Seahawks. We're all aligned on this one. Line's a little too high. Don't know about the startled abdomen thing. Haven't loved the Seahawks' offense the last couple of weeks. And third time these two teams have played, which usually leads to something wacky. Uh, next one, Patriots minus three over the Texans. Some people are asking, how are the Patriots going to move the ball against the Texans, D? I ask, how are the Texans going to move the ball in cold weather in New England against

• 1:34:03Bill Simmons?

  the Patriots, D? Uh, low-scoring game. I just think this is a quarterbacks game at some point. This is Drake May versus CJ Stroud. Pick carefully and then last but not least, Bears. Plus three and a half against the Rams. Shreigs was horrified by this pick. House kinda liked it. I think I talked him into it.

• 1:34:24Bill Simmons?

  Two things here. I think either team could win. I like the hook and I think the Bears are gonna be able to move the ball. So I actually like the over in this. I think, what was that game you played last year, House? Was the Washington Philly game? What was that, like 52 to 30?

• 1:34:38Speaker 01

  55 to.

• 1:34:39Speaker 02

  Oh, yeah, yeah.

• 1:34:40Bill Simmons?

  Usually cold weather games don't do that.

• 1:34:42Speaker 02

  It wasn't 80 degrees. It was the NFC Championship game.

• 1:34:44Bill Simmons?

  Cold weather games tend to bring that down, so.

• 1:34:47Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:34:48Bill Simmons?

  All right.

• 1:34:48Speaker 01

  Hey, Bill.

• 1:34:49Bill Simmons?

  And wait a second, wait a second. That was today's ring 107 brought to by Fanduel. Odds subject to change. What do you got, Shreigs?

• 1:34:56Speaker 01

  I was gonna tell you, you're still on fire. We were talking about this two weeks ago. Your Peyton Manning, OJ Simpson, uh, mailbag question was one of the, you're still in your apex moment here. You're still on fire.

• 1:35:08Bill Simmons?

  It's a reapex.

• 1:35:09Speaker 01

  Reapex. That's exactly right. You're on Apex Mountain in the reapex with the sliding doors and the whole thing. Uh, I'm telling you, on fire. Whatever you're doing.

• 1:35:17Bill Simmons?

  Do you agree to that, House? That the modern OJ would.

• 1:35:20Speaker 02

  I missed the mailbag.

• 1:35:21Bill Simmons?

  The mu, I did it. Yeah, it was within the last 20 hours.

• 1:35:24Speaker 02

  Damn, I'm trying to catch up.

• 1:35:26Speaker 01

  Tell them what the answer was.

• 1:35:27Bill Simmons?

  If the OJ car chase happened again, who would be the athlete that could compare the most to how we felt about OJ in 1994 when that happened? And my answer, after offering Serena Williams and Charles Barkley, I forgot who the third one was. Oh, uh, Jason Kelsey.

• 1:35:45Speaker 01

  Kelsey.

• 1:35:47Bill Simmons?

  But the answer is clearly Peyton Manning.

• 1:35:51Bill Simmons?

  Fame, being shocked that it's happening. Um, my mom would care. I think he's the answer.

• 1:35:58Speaker 01

  And then House is like, they would break into even the Oscars.

• 1:36:02Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Super Bowl, Oscars, name, name an event. Stranger Things, season finale?

• 1:36:09Speaker 02

  Every event. They would, they would be interrupted. Peyton Manning is in, what would he be driving?

• 1:36:14Bill Simmons?

  With Peyton Manning? Who's the Zoukali?

• 1:36:20Speaker 01

  Dwight Clark?

• 1:36:21Bill Simmons?

  It's probably Marvin Harrison, actually. Oh, God. I gotta look around. Hope it's not here.

• 1:36:27Speaker 01

  I'll say that.

• 1:36:30Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, so you agree with that answer, Shreks?

• 1:36:32Speaker 01

  It was amazing. You're on fire, dude. Please, whatever you're doing, no carbs, no sugar, just keep it going. You're on fire right now. You're kicking ass and I love being a part of it.

• 1:36:40Speaker 02

  I'm gonna see him in three weeks. Oh, that's going to hell. I'm telling you right now.

• 1:36:44Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, House and I are going back for Bob Cousy's court retirement at Holy Cross.

• 1:36:49Speaker 02

  Naming ceremony. College of Holy Cross in Woodston.

• 1:36:52Bill Simmons?

  It's the weekend of Super Bowl. We don't care.

• 1:36:55Speaker 01

  Are you really gonna go Super Bowl weekend?

• 1:36:57Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it's Bob Cousy. It's the fucking Cousy.

• 1:36:59Speaker 02

  I'll be back in time.

• 1:37:01Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, no, we'll be back for the game, but we're not, we're not going to, I don't want to go to Santa Clara and have the electromagnetic rays being shot at me.

• 1:37:10Bill Simmons?

  I care about my tendons and my ligaments.

• 1:37:13Speaker 01

  No Super Bowl week for you at all?

• 1:37:14Bill Simmons?

  No Super Bowl week.

• 1:37:16Speaker 01

  Oh, that's a disappointment.

• 1:37:17Bill Simmons?

  It's gonna be, it's gonna be a Holy Cross weekend. Me, House, and Jacko, we're back.

• 1:37:23Speaker 01

  Jalen Coker.

• 1:37:24Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, maybe Jalen Coker will be our fourth house. Should we ask him? Nine catches last week.

• 1:37:31Speaker 02

  It's either him or Gordy Lockbaum, one or the other.

• 1:37:33Bill Simmons?

  Shreks, Cousy's 97.

• 1:37:36Speaker 01

  It's unbelievable.

• 1:37:36Bill Simmons?

  And still killing it.

• 1:37:37Speaker 01

  Like, he was so old in the movie Blue Chips, and that was 30 years ago.

• 1:37:41Bill Simmons?

  He's, he's the absolute best, and we like, one of the reasons we loved being at Holy Cross 30 years ago is we had this Cousy Heintzen legacy. Of, it was just so cool that they won the NCAA title and IT, like, it was a big part, and now it's like so many years ago, I don't even think the kids there probably even realized those guys went there. So, yeah, we're going back.

• 1:38:02Speaker 01

  I'm gonna miss you in San Francisco. We usually have a good hang during Super Bowl week. I'm, I'm a little sad.

• 1:38:07Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I mean, San Francisco, Santa Clara, it's all over the map.

• 1:38:12Bill Simmons?

  I don't know what to tell you. You love Super Bowl, though. There's nothing more you love than saddling up to a minority owner and a TV exec and then a retired quarterback just like being able to just move around. You, I've seen you in action.

• 1:38:27Speaker 01

  You, me, Mike Tirico and Bryce Young in a conversation last year.

• 1:38:31Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that happened last year. That was great. That was really fun. All right, guys.

• 1:38:35Speaker 02

  Well, I mean, that rivals this, this appearance by Lena Dunham on Netflix. I'm on with Lena Dunham and Bill Simmons. That's amazing.

• 1:38:42Bill Simmons?

  I forgot about that.

• 1:38:45Speaker 02

  Look at Lena.

• 1:38:46Bill Simmons?

  How's your and Ringer Gambling Show on Saturday. Shreigs, any more TV this week for you or you done?

• 1:38:51Speaker 01

  Friday morning, I'm on Get Up.

• 1:38:54Bill Simmons?

  That's tomorrow.

• 1:38:55Speaker 01

  Yes, in a couple hours.

• 1:38:56Bill Simmons?

  Oh, Jesus. Go to bed, Shreigs. Thanks, guys. Thanks to Gahal and Eduardo as well. Don't forget, I'll be back here live on Netflix on Sunday night after the Rams Bears game. You'll be able to watch and listen to that on Spotify as well. Enjoy the weekend. Enjoy the gambling. Great to see you guys.

• 1:39:29Bill Simmons?

  Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 888-797777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplineMA.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts or call 877-8HOPENY or text HOPENY. This episode is brought to you by Searchlight Pictures, WildHorse9, John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell. I like those guys. Star in the Sharp Ridded Comedy Thriller from Academy Award winner.

• 1:40:11Bill Simmons?

  Martin McDonagh, writer-director of The Banshees of Minnehoshan and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, set in the 1970s, filmed on location on Easter Island. Malkovich and Rockwell play CIA agents Chris and Lee, who are caught in a dangerous game of secrets and survival. Also starring Steve Buscemi, another one of my guys, Parker Posey and Tom Waits. Wild Horse 9 is being hailed by critics as a revitalizing shot of pure entertainment and easily one of the best films of the year. Don't miss Wild Horse 9, only in theaters November 6. Get tickets now. This episode is brought to you by Core Power Protein Shakes. You know how we always talk about the little things that separate great athletes? Post-workout recovery is a big factor.

• 1:40:55Bill Simmons?

  Core Power Protein Shakes help you keep going after your workout with high-quality protein to build muscle and electrolytes to help hydrate. It's all you need for your recovery in one bottle, available in 26 and 42 gram protein options to pick what works best for you. Visit corepower.com to learn more. New York.