Oil’s Most VOLATILE Day In History w/ Anthony Scaramucci | PBD #757

Patrick Bet-David, Tom Ellsworth, and Brandon Aceto are joined by Anthony Scaramucci to break down Trump’s Strait of Hormuz takeover threat tied to the Iran conflict, Anthropic suing the Pentagon over AI and defense contracts, the Panama Canal port war involving China, and new warning signs in the U. S. labor market and jobs report. ------ 👍 LIKE AND SUBSCRIBE! 🏢 VT CAREERS: https://bit.ly/4ungnZZ Ⓜ️ MINNECT WITH ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI: https://bit.ly/4sCB6ar

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:13Patrick Bet-David?

  My handshake is better than anything I ever signed, right here.

• 0:17Speaker 01

  You are a one of one?

• 0:18Speaker 02

  My son's right there.

• 0:19Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't think I've ever said this before.

• 0:26Patrick Bet-David?

  Alright, great to have everybody here with us. We have Anthony Scaramucci in the house. We have Tom Ellsworth and Brandon Aceto. Anthony and I met 2017, 18, I don't know what year it was. 2017. 2017, the first time we were at this hotel. First Bernard Kerri comes, I do the interview, then Anthony comes. And then it was General McChrystal right afterwards. Great conversation, great to have you back. Lots going on. Tom, we were talking to a Caucasian sports analyst this morning. And I don't want to disclose his name. But he said something that some may call inappropriate. I just felt compelled to want to share it because I think the White House is always...

• 1:09Patrick Bet-David?

  Rob, don't you think the White House is always welcoming good recommendations? People for them to consider. If you guys are following the baseball, you know, the baseball classic, this game. Bobby Wood Jr., when they were playing, US was playing Mexico, which was an incredible game. I don't know if we can show the catch. He made this catch that seemed like he was a magician. Rob, I don't know if we can show it. Because I'm sure we're gonna get hit with the stuff that they do. This analyst, I don't want to say his name, but you guys can guess who he is. He says the White House should consider hiring Bobby Wood Jr. to replace Kristi Noem. Because no Mexican can get past him. So, I thought it was inappropriate, little bit funny.

• 1:54Patrick Bet-David?

  But I'm not gonna disclose the person's name, Tom. I just want people to know that I would never do such a thing. So, I thought I was funny, but good for baseball. By the way, yesterday, Mikael, who runs the boardroom, comes to me quietly. He says, "Hey, Patrick, I want to show you, Italy beat US yesterday, 8-6." I'm like, "Are you American or Italian, Mikaeli?" But anyways. There's a lot going on tonight. There's a big game, Venezuela against DR. That's gonna be played in Miami. Should be a very, very big game. Anthony's son, by the way, for some of you guys that aren't to collectibles, I know I am. His son just bought a very small card. Cheap card. He bought a very small card that nobody was watching, nobody was tracking and some people call this some crazy, but this guy's on the way to want to buy T-Rex. He wants to buy anything and everything.

• 2:38Patrick Bet-David?

  He paid six, your son paid sixteen and a half million dollars. He did. For the Pokemon card, which I'm sure we'll talk about here today as well. And there's a plan behind what he's doing. Maybe it's some of the investment, the DNA that he has from his pops. We'll see what's going on over there. Of course, we got to talk about Iran. With what happened yesterday. They're calling it the most volatile day, day in the history of oil. Most volatile day, prices going up and down. The president making an announcement saying, hey, this thing's going to be done soon. Then this morning, reports came out with US forces sink sixteen Iranian mine layers. As reports say Tehran is mining the Strait of Hormuz.

• 3:21Patrick Bet-David?

  And by the way, some guys are like, look, I don't want to go through. The president's saying, stop being afraid, have some courage. Go through, we'll escort you. No, we don't escort you, Chris Wright. We are escorting ships, Caroline Levitt. We're not escorting ships. What are you doing? Take that tweet down. There's a lot of stuff that's going on right now, communication wise. We'll address that to get some thoughts. Oracle stock went up, so the Ellison family's doing good, which means their shareholders are probably happy with the paramount decision.

• 3:47Patrick Bet-David?

  That was made, if that ends up going through. Uh, uh, there's a lot of talks about that, so hopefully we'll see as more stories come through. Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano, yesterday Gina Carano walked up on stage. And I literally started getting fifty text messages of people like Vinnie and some other people texting saying, is she single? Is she single? I'm like, what is, who's single? Gina Carano, is she single? And then in the interview, you know what Gina Carano announces? That she's engaged. Rob, did you see that? She screwed it up for Gina. I had all these guys messaging me anyways. You look amazing. Uh, Ronda had some choice words towards UFC with, uh, Jake Paul was right in between them, Rob. I don't know if you saw that or not. I don't know what we can show. I'm sure maybe we can show some of that stuff.

• 4:33Patrick Bet-David?

  Uh, uh, so that fight, Ronda said this is going to be the biggest fight in any MMA. It almost seemed like she kept taking shots, not sure the history. We'll cover that a little bit. And then aside from that, we have to talk about. Putin and Trump had a phone call together. Uh, first phone call this year that they had. It's a long time to have the first phone call this year in March, but they had a conversation together. Oil prices, um, declined nearly after hitting a hundred and twenty dollars. I said, we'll talk about that. Let me see what else I got here. Uh, consumer index give CPI came in right this morning, two point four. Am I saying it correctly? The reports literally just came in thirty minutes ago. That's right. Two point four percent. Uh, uh, better than expected or expected. It's a positive sign on what's going on, but.

• 5:18Patrick Bet-David?

  Just a tick better. Brandon is not happy about it. He's always got something that he's not happy about with the president. He's going to share his thoughts. Anthropic, we have to finally touch this story. Crowd striking eleven other stocks that have gained every day of the Iranian war. We'll talk about those eleven stocks. And a few other things with Mexico trade agreement. If we get to it, Hong Kong firm seeks two billion dollars over Panama takeover. Which by the way, that's a story that's important. We'll address that. U S economy shed ninety two thousand, uh, jobs in February below expectation. So this CPI may be good, but job expectation not good. And then we got a few other things we'll get into. We'll give an update on the Iranian women's soccer squad.

• 6:01Patrick Bet-David?

  There's a picture of one of them flying back on the airline. You see her picture. She was forced to go back. Two others, I believe, seek asylum and they got it. And then there's this thing called the NBA. It's the worst game it's ever been today. Nobody plays defense to the point where a guy from Miami Heat yesterday scored eighty three points. The team scored a hundred and fifty points. They gotta go back to the defense days. Nobody plays defense nowadays. They played against the Washington Wizards that have sixteen wins and the guy scored eighty three, breaking Kobe Bryant's number of eighty one. There's only three players that have scored over eighty points. I don't know if Bam, uh, you know, listen, congratulations to him. Good for you with the history books. He shot nearly forty free throws, but, uh, it is what it is.

• 6:45Patrick Bet-David?

  We're definitely not going to be talking about that. I'm just putting that out there that the NBA needs to start playing defense again, or else it's getting boring, Giselle. Having said that, gang, before we get into the stories. I want to tell you guys what's going on with us. We're hiring aggressively. Nearly 50% plus of the employees that work at ValueTainment, any one of our companies, whether it's the ValueTainment Investment Group, whether it's Bedavid Consulting, whether it's Mynect, or Hire Metrics, or the production team, or any of this stuff that we do. 50% is not from here. They move here to work with us. If you're looking at the different jobs that we have right now, we have, I don't know, 30, 40 different job openings. Rob, if you have the clip to show on

• 7:25Patrick Bet-David?

  working over here, if you want to play that clip, and then at the end, I want to give you guys a tip. Guy sends me a text. A lot of people send me texts saying, hey, Pat, can you put in a good word in? My best friend's nephew applied. You know, I applied. What can I do to get up there? I'm going to give you a tip at the end, what to do to be a differentiator, because our HR team only looks at people that do this one thing. But go ahead and watch this clip. Go for it, Rob. Many times when people think about ValueTainment, all they think about is a podcast, but it's a lot more than that. It's nine companies working together on an 11-acre campus. If I was to give you a virtual tour here, you'll see the HR department hiring, talent acquisition. We have full-stack developers that are working on Mynect and Hire Metrics. We have a full-fledged events team that puts together events with thousands of people. We have a merch department designing the latest product.

• 8:09Patrick Bet-David?

  We just launched the F L B shoes, made in Italy. We have a marketing department, and if you go to the complete opposite side of the building, 50, 60 people making calls, working for Bedavid Consulting, sales, setters. And then on the complete opposite side of the campus, there's a full-on production company with editors, shooters, creating content, doing podcasts. Then you can drive down a couple miles and go to our private boardroom, cigar lounge with members only. Regardless of what it is, working at ValueTainment, every day is a surprise. You could be walking into work and right next to you is a governor, is a billionaire, is an athlete. We are hiring aggressively, but ValueTainment isn't for everybody. For the right person, this could be the last company you ever work for. So, if you're watching this and you want to learn more, go to vt.com/careers and apply now.

• 8:57Patrick Bet-David?

  Perfect. So now when you go to VT.com/curators and you apply your resume, you're going to get an email to do a five-minute AI interview. If you don't do the AI interview, they won't look at your resume. So apply, submit your resume, but we don't hire anybody without the AI interviews because we want it to be an unbiased feedback that we get from our reports afterwards from higher metrics. So if you want to find out more about different jobs that we have, again, go to VT.com/career, apply now, looking forward to hopefully working together soon.

• 9:25Tom Ellsworth?

  And you wanted to give them a tip if they're reaching out to you saying,

• 9:28Patrick Bet-David?

  Do the AI interview.

• 9:29Tom Ellsworth?

  Do it.

• 9:30Patrick Bet-David?

  Do the AI interview. Do the AI interview. It's a big differentiator that other people won't get through because we're going to come back to you and say, "Did you do it?" "No, okay, we're skipping to the next candidate." All right, let's get right into it. Okay, so first story you start off with, we have to go to oil. Oil prices declined after hitting nearly $120 as Trump says US considering taking over Strait of Hormuz. Rob, I think you got a video on this one if you want to pull it up. I'll read it and then we'll get right into the story. So oil prices fell Monday in extended trading after President Trump said he was considering seizing control of Strait of Hormuz, the most important choke point in the world for crude market.

• 10:12Patrick Bet-David?

  The crude oil was down 6.19% to 85.27%. And Trump told CBS News in a phone conversation that ships are moving through Strait. The president said he's thinking about taking it over. He also indicated he thought the war would be soon. The moment he said that, people reacted. Rob, is this the clip?

• 10:32Tom Ellsworth?

  This is Fox News. Yes, sir.

• 10:34Patrick Bet-David?

  Do you have the numbers? Can we see what oil prices are right now? As of literally right now where prices of oil are? Tom, have you looked at it?

• 10:42Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, it's a US, US WTI, West Texas Intermediate, which usually runs about $2 to $3 less than Brent Crude. Those are the two global markers. And so we're hovering around 85 right now, which is significantly down. So we're up a couple bucks today, but it certainly has settled down from the last two days.

• 11:02Patrick Bet-David?

  Can you press on five days, Rob?

• 11:04Speaker 04

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• 12:04Speaker 05

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• 12:34Patrick Bet-David?

  Five days high was what? 110, 112? 1, 110-ish? Okay. Anthony, what do you think's going on here with oil prices? Went up, went down. What are your thoughts?

• 12:46Speaker 06

  Well, I mean, obviously, you know, you've got 21 miles straight, 20% of the world's oil coming through there. You have to shut down production because there's no place to put the supply of oil in places like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. So they're shutting down production. And unfortunately, it's not like an on and off switch. You can't just flip it back on, Patrick. So it takes about three to six weeks to get it back up and running. And so, you know, I used to work at Goldman Sachs, Jay Aaron's commodity division. They would get in there and get, you know, long oil and play the volatility trade. And then, of course, the president, you know, he likes pulling Ripcord every once in a while. I mean, they

• 13:29Speaker 06

  call it taco. I think he has a really interesting strategy here in the Middle East, which we'll talk about later. But I think the bottom line is oil prices, my prediction, will trend lower back to where they were at the beginning of the year, once this resolves itself.

• 13:42Patrick Bet-David?

  Tom?

• 13:43Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, I'm on the same page of trending back lower. I mean, if you go to that chart and you just look back for, say, three months, and, you know, we were 67 to 74 was kind of the range. Yeah, there you go. 67, keep going, going, going. There we were. Right before, there's 63, 62. So between USWTI and Brent Crude, Brent runs a couple bucks more, that's where we were. And we were in a happy little place. That's above what's called extraction cost. 67, 70 bucks is good profit for most everybody in the value chain, even profitable for Alberta oil sands or North Dakota shale. So the oil market was

• 14:25Tom Ellsworth?

  okay. And what this is, is uncertainty creates this. If you take a look at the, what uncertainty does in markets, that's what people need to understand. These are not permanent things. These are reactionary. Rob, could you look at S and P and go back a full year so we can see last April? You know, Liberation Day, whatever we wanted to call it, no, no, one year, one full year?

• 14:50Tom Ellsworth?

  And it goes back, you had this huge spike that happened. And you were sitting there looking at, there we go, in April. Look at the spike down. That was uncertainty. But then the fundamentals of the market came back. People announced earnings and everything was okay. Oil is a little bit different because as Anthony said, it takes time to spin the stuff back up. But North Sea Oil hasn't stopped. And West Texas Intermediate hasn't stopped. And North Dakota and Alberta hasn't stopped. So there's a lot of supply in the West that was business as usual. And we are, I believe the number, correct me here. We are two times the amount of oil is now going out of Venezuela.

• 15:29Tom Ellsworth?

  As in the 30 days prior to, you know, relieving Maduro of his presidential duties. Dictatorial duties. Because they were basically limited shipping because there was embargoes and other things going on. And now they have all the pipes going. And so if you can get a boat to Venezuela. And you've got a place to refine heavy crude, which is what comes out of Venezuela. Then you're going to be good. So for most people freaking out, I don't think this is going to affect travel costs like air. Like, you know, avgas as they call it, aviation fuel. I think the spike is going to settle back down, Pat.

• 16:05Speaker 06

  I just add something. And the thing about Venezuela, which has been brilliant for the United States. Is our refineries, remember, were set up. Pre-Maduro, pre-Chavez, so they can refine that heavy crude. And so it's an easy shipment to the United States. And I think that was the play, you know, if you combine Venezuela and Iran, it's 31% of the world's oil reserves. So there's a big play going on right now.

• 16:32Patrick Bet-David?

  What do you think the strategy is? You said earlier, you know, Trump's strategy, it's interesting. What do you actually think the strategy is?

• 16:38Speaker 06

  Well, I mean, you know, he's got tremendous communication skills, President Trump. But he has sometimes a hard time articulating vision. So I'll channel it for you because I know him a long time. He's looking at this and saying to himself. I was able to figure out a way not to have regime change, sort of regime change light in Venezuela. I was able to get Delcy Rodriguez to come on side with me and basically flip Venezuela into a friendly. Okay, and that also gives them some leverage on China. And he was told, again rightly or wrongly, he was told by intelligence, he was told by DIA, Defense Intelligence, that there were secularists in Iran and that this sort of revolution that was happening in January was an indication that people were getting

• 17:23Speaker 06

  tired, 85% of the people against the regime, etc. And so he said, okay, here's an opportunity to create a Delcy Rodriguez II. Let's see if we can get to the table. I guess the big question I would have for the president, him and I don't talk anymore, but I would have, what happened in Oman? Because they had a deal in Oman, the Iranians more or less gave them exactly what they wanted. So there has to be something underlying why he ultimately made the decision to attack. Maybe it was the Israeli thing that Secretary Rubio said, but the vision was knock out the regime, or at least the top few guys, and then find a secularist to do business with and create the pivot. But where I know and fairly certain, he's upset with the Israelis because the Israelis

• 18:07Speaker 06

  went down the line and killed everybody, Patrick. And I think the president, and he more or less admitted that in an Oval Office conversation, he said, I'm trying to find somebody to do it.

• 18:17Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, we liked the guy, but he's dead.

• 18:18Speaker 06

  Yeah, well, we're trying to find somebody to do it, and they keep killing the people. And so you had, you had it.

• 18:23Patrick Bet-David?

  They keep, so that's funny. Because the they is Israelis keep killing the people.

• 18:28Speaker 06

  Yeah, so the Americans and the Israelis were on side, on message for the original strikes, and then they diverged in terms of what their objectives were later on. Israelis had made a decision, you caused us this problem in Gaza, Hezbollah, Hamas, you've been a state sponsor of terrorism. And remember, and I think everyone here knows this, but in the Iranian constitution, if you read it, because I've gone through it, they want to export their radicalism and they want to end Israel. Those are the two things. And so you're the Prime Minister of Israel, someone's telling you they want to wipe you out. Imagine if, you know, one of the countries near us was saying, hey, our number one dedication is to destroy the United States. You know, you've got to put, you've got to put your, you've got to put your guard up.

• 19:13Speaker 06

  There it is.

• 19:14Patrick Bet-David?

  For one is more ideological, for one is more business. For Trump, it's more business. For Israel, it's more emotion.

• 19:20Speaker 06

  Emotion, survival, want to kill everybody.

• 19:23Tom Ellsworth?

  And Anthony, over the weekend, didn't Trump basically say? He says, "The country is yours for the taking, come and take it." He was encouraging them over the weekend.

• 19:32Speaker 06

  The citizens.

• 19:33Tom Ellsworth?

  To the citizens.

• 19:34Speaker 06

  Okay, so there's another very big problem there. So the citizens have been declawed, okay? Over the last 20 years, all the guns have been taken away, all of the right to really peaceful dissent. They've got a full-on security state. So imagine the NSA to the ninth power. And they've got a tippy-tip or a payment structure going on. So if I see you in your apartment doing something that I think I don't like, I can call the regime and they'll send Supa to come in and check on you, right? So they have this massive surveillance state and they've suppressed the people. So President's right, we'd like you to overthrow the regime, but you don't have any guns and you don't have any ammo to overthrow the regime, right?

• 20:18Speaker 06

  And you don't have an ability on your own to overthrow the regime. So they've been declawed. And that's a big issue. And so what's at issue now, and I'm not in love with, I mean, you talk about regime change. You went from Hameini to younger Hameini and less than a Scaramucci. I mean, eight days later, they got, you had no real regime change. And this guy's a hardened guy. And so I'm worried about that. Now, having said all that, what's Plan Two? Plan Two is blow the living daylights out of them, degrade their missile strike capability, their drone capability.

• 20:55Tom Ellsworth?

  And manufacture.

• 20:56Speaker 06

  And manufacture. But remember something, because I've been to Afghanistan and I understand those mountain ranges over there. They've got so much stuff hidden in those mountains. And so you're gonna have to drop some severe bunker buster bombs all over the place to try to dislodge that. And it's a gigantic country, guys. You know, Patrick grew up, or was at least born there. 93 million people, gigantic country. You know, it would basically fit in the middle of the United States without the coasts. And they got a lot of terrain there where they could be hiding stuff. Last point, which I think is the most important one, you've got 460 or so kilos of uranium that's missing since we dropped those bombs.

• 21:39Speaker 06

  And so the president knows that, our people know that. That's why they're thinking about putting a ground troops or special forces in there to see if they can get that, the nuclear fizzle material out of the country.

• 21:52Tom Ellsworth?

  That's a thousand, so it goes kilos, so that's about a thousand pounds of weapons grade.

• 21:57Speaker 06

  We think, and we don't know, but that's what we think.

• 21:59Tom Ellsworth?

  But if that number's correct, it's a thousand pounds of weapons.

• 22:01Speaker 06

  Yeah, okay, so be in the situation room, let's workshop the situation room. You're the president of the United States, your ally is Israel, they want to destroy Israel, they're wreaking havoc in the region. I'm sure Patrick knows this, the Gulf states are saying two things at the same time. They're telling the president quietly, we support you.

• 22:22Tom Ellsworth?

  Publicly.

• 22:23Speaker 06

  And then they're writing open letters that they don't support them, which is totally cool, by the way. This is exactly what Delcy Rodriguez did after the decapitation of Maduro. I'm not going to take the BS of the president, but that was all staged. So you're getting two channels of information, but the Gulf states are really telling the president, hit him as hard as you possibly can, but don't destroy our economies and don't destroy the global economy. And by the way, the Iranians, because they've been thinking about this too, I can't beat the United States, but I got to outlast them and I have to terrorize the countries in this region that are allied with the United States. And that's why you're seeing drones going into the Dubai airport, hitting apartment

• 23:08Speaker 06

  buildings.

• 23:09Tom Ellsworth?

  Rein for desalination.

• 23:10Speaker 06

  Yeah, the desalination, that was a rough one. You probably shouldn't be shooting at schools, I think that was a mistake. I think the president is making a mistake by not owning up to that. That was a tomahawk missile that hit the school. I'm certain that the Americans didn't do that on purpose, that's unfortunately the fog of war, but just admit it and let's move on. Because if it happened to us, we'd be crazy, right?

• 23:34Speaker 07

  This thing feels sloppy, though, compared to Venezuela. Venezuela was meticulous. That strike on Iran last year was meticulous with the bunker buster bombs. So it's almost like, I'm wondering if they're strategically acting incompetent right now, because even when Hagseth and the other general goes up there, they're acting like they're unclear on what they want to do with the straightforward moves, which is why I think the oil market's been so volatile. Because, I mean, I imagine that it's pretty easy to clear it out if they went extra savage, but they're not showing the willingness to be extra savage.

• 24:04Speaker 06

  So let me jump in, because I think that this is the problem. They got a little overconfident, as we sometimes do. Some of my worst mistakes is when I'm overconfident, particularly in markets. They beautifully executed in Venezuela. They saw this as a six- or 12-day war. And I know what they did. They went to the President of Mar-a-Lago and said, "Hey, look at this six-day war in 1967. The Israelis knocked the daylights out of the Egyptians. It forced secularism in Egypt, and it eventually led..."

• 24:36Speaker 07

  ...fronts in that war.

• 24:37Speaker 06

  Yeah, exactly. And they took over the Sinai Peninsula, had to give it back to them in the Camp David Accords, but it caused secularization. You have a chance here. Last year, you had the 12-day war. No real damage from the Iranians coming back to us. We're going to do this six, 12, 21 days. There'll be no real damage. But once you went after the Supreme Leader, remember what Trump has said from the White House. "If they take me out, there's a whole list of things I've given people to do to the Iranians."

• 25:07Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 25:07Speaker 06

  You've heard him say that. So just imagine the Supreme Leader has now been taken out, and the Iranians are going down the list they were told to do after that takeout, right? And so the President and his team, I am now being critical, just to tell you what the vision is, they didn't anticipate that. And that's the big thing, right? That's what, you know, Mike Tyson would tell you, "Everybody has a planet that you punch in the face." You were in the 101st Airborne, 82nd Airborne was dropped off-site on June 5th prior to D-Day. They had to fight their way out of that in a 360-degree circle. So we have things that go on in war that are bad, so now they're recalibrating. But that was ultimately the mistake. But if he handles this well...

• 25:51Speaker 06

  Okay, and I've been a critic of the president. I think people know that. I don't like the process. We talk about the democracy and the threat to it, but if he handles this well, he could have, he could have his cake and eat it too. He could have a marginal, he's not, maybe not going to get the regime change and they end the fanaticism there, but he could have a marginalized country, which will lower those oil prices and stable.

• 26:14Patrick Bet-David?

  What's victory though? Because you got, to me, what victory is to US, I don't think is the same victory as it is to Israel. I don't think you're aligned there. Would you agree with that?

• 26:24Speaker 06

  A hundred percent.

• 26:25Patrick Bet-David?

  Tom, would you agree with that as well?

• 26:26Speaker 06

  A hundred percent.

• 26:26Patrick Bet-David?

  Victory to US is different than victory for Israel, Tom?

• 26:32Tom Ellsworth?

  Yes and no. There's part of it is, but Mossad has always had, and I'm not a spokesperson for Mossad, I'm very critical of them. Mossad has always had their agenda, and their agenda has been very different and sometimes a lot more lethal than the West and the UN. Because NATO has been a friend, the US have been a friend. People say, no, no, no, you've been led by Israel. No, no, no. There have been times where, okay, here's where we all agree, but then Israel's had these other lethal things to do. Israel has taken people out of apartment buildings in Lebanon with missiles and didn't tell the US. US CIA knew about it. I've read stuff. We've talked to CIA

• 27:17Tom Ellsworth?

  people that have leaked it. Said, the CIA knew and said, you know, we really think that guy, the guy in Lebanon, kaboom, well, they did it, you know, and so.

• 27:27Patrick Bet-David?

  So to them, if you were.

• 27:29Tom Ellsworth?

  They have another agenda down deep.

• 27:31Patrick Bet-David?

  I get that. So what I'm saying is.

• 27:32Speaker 06

  They want a failed partition state. That's what I think.

• 27:34Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, great. So they want to get rid of what's their right.

• 27:36Speaker 06

  They want Syria, Lebanon. Israel looks at its survival and says, we do really well in this region if we have failed partition states and we have secular Arabs that want to do business with Israel and the United States. That's the Abraham Accords. On the side where there's the radicals, mostly unfortunately the Shia Muslims, they would rather have them have failed states than anything. Or I don't think the Americans want that. That's just me talking now.

• 28:05Patrick Bet-David?

  Americans don't want?

• 28:07Speaker 06

  No, the Americans don't want a failed state.

• 28:08Speaker 07

  They want a controllable leader.

• 28:10Speaker 06

  That's what they want. Because you get Somalia with the Orlean.

• 28:13Patrick Bet-David?

  You don't have it right now.

• 28:14Speaker 06

  No. No. Which is, they want a Delcy Rodriguez.

• 28:16Patrick Bet-David?

  You can't do a Delcy because there's not a VP model there, right?

• 28:19Speaker 06

  Right, right.

• 28:20Patrick Bet-David?

  So it's not like you can go, what happened to Venezuela is not gonna happen. Tom said something very important. He says, you know what's the problem with suicide bombers? And Humberto said, what? He says the suicide part. He says, when you're going to war and you're willing to commit suicide on behalf of your country, you change the game. Venezuelans don't think that way.

• 28:42Speaker 06

  Right.

• 28:42Patrick Bet-David?

  There's only a couple countries that think that way, right? I'm willing to go out there and, you know, Iran being one of them. But when you're looking at this, so in your mind, I just pulled up right now just to search for myself. So Israel planned and executed the strike operationally to kill Khamenei. US simply provided the intelligence and military support for the operation. Israel took him out, they provided. Now, of course, they're working together on this, sure. But this is where I'm at. When they asked me a question, they said, do you think they should kill Khamenei? If you kill Khamenei, the supreme leader, you know, he's 86, he's about to be dead here soon anyways.

• 29:23Patrick Bet-David?

  But if you take him out, and now you take out 50, it's like in the mob war. If all of a sudden you took out the boss, the underboss, the capos, the consigliere, you better take out the entire family. You can't let them stay because this guy that's left behind, the, did you guys see the clip and the cardboard? I think everybody saw this clip. People thought this was a, initially when I thought, I thought this was South Park. But by the way, this, have you seen this, Brandon, or no? So this is them celebrating their new supreme leader. Play, press play? Okay, turn off the music, Rob? So this is not AI. This is real.

• 30:06Patrick Bet-David?

  At first, I said, there's no way this is real. Can you go to the comment section on the bottom? And, and go to one of the groks saying, is this real? Okay, can you go to, keep going, keep going, keep going? Keep going, keep going, keep going? Okay, go to that one right there. This clip is from IRGC Allegiance Ceremony of Mochtabah Khamenei. New Supreme Leader appointed March 8th through the 9th after his father Ali's death in strikes. He didn't appear live, so they used a cardboard cutout. This is Grok, broadcast on Iranian state TV from Tehran. The short version is one circulating widely, no longer raw footage is publicly available. So what's the point? So you took them out.

• 30:51Patrick Bet-David?

  Now the son is left, you killed his father, you killed his wife, you killed his mom, you killed his sister, you killed his nephews, you killed his sons, you killed his, you know, one of his kids. I don't know who else it was that was killed. Now he's gonna stay and you're gonna let him stay?

• 31:07Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah.

• 31:07Patrick Bet-David?

  I think if you've gone this deep, I think you either have to go finish the job or you should have never done it this way in the first place.

• 31:15Tom Ellsworth?

  Because the new guy is bitter with a vision. He's bitter with a cause, the new guy, with all of that around him.

• 31:21Speaker 06

  Let me flip it back around for a second. Let me, let's, let's flip it back around. So they're enemies of ours. They hit the White House, they blow up the president, God forbid. They then hit a school near one of our military installations and kill all the daughters of our military people. And then they hit New Jersey refineries, which are very close to Manhattan. They blow up the refineries and they send black smoke into one of our most populated cities and they choke all the people. Okay, and how is the United States gonna react to that?

• 31:56Patrick Bet-David?

  Oh, I'll give you the answer. Oh, no problem.

• 31:58Speaker 06

  You're good.

• 31:59Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, are we small or are we big? Are we the more powerful one or are we the underdog? Are we the favorite? Because there's a big difference, right?

• 32:06Speaker 06

  So, so, so let's go through both, Patrick.

• 32:08Patrick Bet-David?

  Go for it.

• 32:10Speaker 06

  Well, I think if we're the favorite, we're gonna go absolutely crazy like we did in 9/11.

• 32:15Patrick Bet-David?

  You have to destroy them.

• 32:16Speaker 06

  We're gonna go crazy like we did when they knocked down the Trade Center and bombed the Pentagon. So I think that's number one. If we're smaller than them, I think we're gonna try to gorilla. Tactically terrorize them.

• 32:28Patrick Bet-David?

  I agree.

• 32:28Speaker 06

  Those are the two things.

• 32:29Speaker 07

  They went after what's most vulnerable, though, because they went after the surrounding countries that were very dependent on in a lot of ways. You know, if you take out the oil or the, um, what is it, the water there, the, uh, desalinated.

• 32:41Speaker 06

  Desalination.

• 32:42Speaker 07

  Yeah, desalinated water there.

• 32:43Patrick Bet-David?

  Let me help you pronounce it, desalination. Go ahead.

• 32:45Speaker 07

  That, no, yeah, that's the whole petrodollar system. Like, the reason the dollar has value is because of the oil that comes from the Middle East, and everybody has to buy oil in dollars. So, I mean, I don't, I, I'm curious if they anticipated Iran going after the surrounding Middle East countries like that, and I'm curious if they anticipated Iran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. Like, I would imagine in wargaming, the thing, you would predict that, but they're not reacting as if they predicted it. So, like, those are things I'm curious about.

• 33:09Speaker 06

  Well, I would say I don't think that they predicted that, and I think that they...

• 33:12Speaker 07

  The Hormuz are the bombing those neighbors.

• 33:13Speaker 06

  Uh, I have both.

• 33:16Speaker 07

  Really? You don't think they thought that was gonna happen?

• 33:18Speaker 06

  No, because I think they looked at the 12-day war from last year. They looked at the Soleimani hit in January of 2020, where they took out the general. And they said that they're gonna try to keep the regime together, and they're gonna measure the response. And I think what the president was looking at is, okay, all that's fine, let's, let's remove some of these clerics and get a secularist in there, and he's a dealmaker, okay? And you like or dislike Trump, here is the deal. You, you're making money off drugs, and you're making money off oil, and you're heavily sanctioned, you're Venezuela. I'm gonna take the sanctions off, you can help me slow down the drugs into the US, and I'm gonna triple the pay for everybody here, including your army generals. And they said, let's do it.

• 34:02Patrick Bet-David?

  Venezuela's not Iran.

• 34:03Speaker 06

  Okay, and then the next moment, they come in and they take Maduro, one night, no bloodshed, they're not even fighting him.

• 34:09Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 34:10Speaker 06

  Venezuela's not Iran, but I think the president thought that there would be a way to create some secularism as a result of degrading them. And now the question is, if you can't create this secularism, what's the next step? I think the plan B is blow them to smithereens so that they're totally degraded. But here's the problem with that, you don't know where the uranium is, and you don't know what they've got in these tunnels inside those...

• 34:37Patrick Bet-David?

  mountain ranges. To me, if you're this deep, if you're in this deep, and this is what happened, there is no turning around. If you're gonna now do what? Okay, hey, we just killed fifty of your leaders and relatives. Okay, guys, can we not negotiate? Yeah, come in and negotiate. How would you emotionally walk into the negotiating room? How would you be able to, you're like sitting there saying, we're gonna take every one of these guys out. Did you, do you think this made the Middle East safer? No. Do you think this just made tensions go lower? Do you think, and by the way, let me, let me, let me ask a question maybe in a different way. For us, we're out, all the way out here in the Western Hemisphere. We're not worried about Iran. They don't have anything that could come to us. The only way they can.

• 35:22Patrick Bet-David?

  I know Iran's got a good-sized embassy in Mexico that they built in nineteen sixty-four, under the Shah. So who knows what they're gonna be doing, their relations with cartel. You, you have a lot of different ways to come and try to attack us, right? But here's a question for you. You know, to, to the community that says Israel has influence over what America does, and Israel's gonna negotiate on behalf of what's important to them, right? Do you think Israel is sitting there, a Bibi is sitting there, seeing where it's at right now, saying he feels safer for his people? Meaning, say, Trump comes out and says, guys, the war is over. Straight of Hormuz, oil prices are not gonna go, this is not gonna be the tanker war of nineteen eighty-four, nineteen eighty-eight. We're not gonna have the prices go up, you know, whatever, four hundred percent,

• 36:08Patrick Bet-David?

  that they have to come in and supply the insurance, we're gonna protect, we're gonna take care of everything. You don't have to worry about this stuff. Okay. And because he's thinking from what? Market standpoint. Markets down, midterms, you know, approval, because you know Trump's a data guy, so it's always looking at what approval rating and. Okay, and then China, he's trying to get China's negotiating going. But in this case, if Trump, my opinion, if Trump walks out of this. And says, we went in, we did our part, we're scored away. Do you know who's screwed if Trump walks out of this?

• 36:41Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 36:41Patrick Bet-David?

  One country. Israel is screwed, screwed. Now, Trump may say, you're not my number one priority. Americans are my number one priority. If Trump walks out, you just dropped the bomb, killed 50 of the biggest leaders and they're your neighbors. And they've said in the next 25 years, we're gonna do everything we can in our power. He said this in 2015. Khamenei said, to make sure that Israel doesn't exist. He said this in 2015, so he said 25 years, that's what? Between 2015 and 2040? You don't think they're sitting there thinking about? So, Israel, in my opinion, officially, they've always been a target, but it just went up. So what is Bibi thinking right now?

• 37:22Patrick Bet-David?

  Is Bibi thinking, I gotta make the phone call and convince this guy to continue to finish this war? If not, I'm not safe.

• 37:28Speaker 07

  Yeah, he's thinking this is the first inning.

• 37:29Patrick Bet-David?

  I think Bibi right now, Bibi's team is sitting there right now saying, guys, we can't, you think Bibi wants the war to stop? Guys, guys, we got, let's go, let's go. It's like, no, not right now, I'm seeing what's going on with the economy. I don't think, you know, the part where you're saying with the disconnect between the two? If this stops today?

• 37:50Speaker 07

  It's worse than the first.

• 37:50Patrick Bet-David?

  First of all, if it stops today, it's worse for Iranians. The people who are there, it's terrible for Israel. I think it's terrible for Israel first and Iranians, those would be a tide for me. But Trump may simply say, look, man, that's your problem, we did our part, we gave you the intel. If you wanna wrap it up, you have the opportunity to defend yourself. But I'm not gonna come out here and screw up my deals that I'm trying to do with Russia, with China, with Putin, with Xi. Xi's coming, they're having a meeting end of the month, I think. March 31st, they got a meeting that's scheduled, if I'm not mistaken. I think the country that it's in the worst situation today, if this stops, I think in my opinion, Israel's first.

• 38:30Speaker 07

  Yeah, we're in too deep though, cuz now, you know, we see what the-

• 38:33Patrick Bet-David?

  We may get out though, what I'm saying. US may say, US, if, by the way, if Trump all of a sudden says, I'm out? That's it? This is how much I'm helping you? If he says, "I'm out." Because they're realizing, you got 200,000, you know, IRGC troops. Okay, this is not Venezuela, that you're gonna be able to do the rewards for justice, that whatever the CIA wants to give million to, 25 million bucks to convert them.

• 39:00Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 39:00Patrick Bet-David?

  Then you have the 95 million, 93 million Iranians that don't have guns, don't have weapons, don't have a way to protect themselves. So, what are you gonna do? Then you have the Strait of Hormuz, the longer it goes, prices go to 200 bucks, midterms are on the corner, American people are saying, "Wait a minute." Like, you see the videos being posted, gas prices in some parts of LA, 6, 7, 8 bucks, right?

• 39:20Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 39:21Patrick Bet-David?

  You think these videos are good for them? No.

• 39:23Speaker 07

  No, but how's the price of oil get fixed if he pulls out now? Because I imagine they're on a vendetta now because of what was done to them, so I imagine they're gonna cause havoc in the region.

• 39:32Patrick Bet-David?

  They is who?

• 39:33Speaker 07

  Iran.

• 39:34Patrick Bet-David?

  What is victory? Okay, so why don't we do this? Let's talk about this. What's victory to Iran? IRGC, not the people. What's victory to Israel? What's victory to US? What would you say? Tom, I'll go to you first.

• 39:48Tom Ellsworth?

  Victory to Iran?

• 39:49Patrick Bet-David?

  Iran, Israel, US.

• 39:50Tom Ellsworth?

  The US backs off in any way.

• 39:53Patrick Bet-David?

  I think so.

• 39:54Tom Ellsworth?

  And then they can say, "Even if they're destroyed, even if we took Karak Island and held it." No. Even if it's all the stuff that's there. If we back off and the new supreme leader is there, they win.

• 40:08Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 40:09Tom Ellsworth?

  Because it means the regime hasn't changed.

• 40:11Speaker 06

  They win by not losing.

• 40:12Tom Ellsworth?

  They win by not losing.

• 40:13Patrick Bet-David?

  By the way, what do you do if you're a supreme leader? What do you do if you're a leader of Iran? And the US backs out? What do you do on TV? What do you say? So, you think?

• 40:20Tom Ellsworth?

  You run all the fake videos and you say, "We knocked down airplanes and the great Satan ran away."

• 40:25Patrick Bet-David?

  Easiest propaganda.

• 40:27Speaker 06

  You do what Kim Il-jung did in North Korea with all the propaganda videos after Trump visited him a few times. Okay, keep going, Tom. So, go ahead.

• 40:34Patrick Bet-David?

  Give the other two.

• 40:35Tom Ellsworth?

  So, that is the victory for Iran. The victory for US is complete regime change and this, you know, a seculist comes into power.

• 40:47Patrick Bet-David?

  So, Iran, they stay in power. US regime change, not collapse.

• 40:52Tom Ellsworth?

  No, no, collapse and a new secularist.

• 40:54Patrick Bet-David?

  Oh, so collapse, not change, because.

• 40:57Tom Ellsworth?

  No, no, you gotta, you gotta, you gotta get them on the path back to 1978.

• 41:01Patrick Bet-David?

  US is collapse, how about to Israel, same?

• 41:04Tom Ellsworth?

  Israel wants to see ironic, the victory for US is the victory for Israel, but Israel really wants, look, ideally, Israel needs everyone to be Jordan, that's not gonna happen. That's not gonna happen in Syria. And so they need crippled states.

• 41:21Patrick Bet-David?

  So what is victory for Israel?

• 41:22Tom Ellsworth?

  Israel is that Iran is a crippled state with no ability to attack it. Unfortunately, that turns Iran into world's largest Somalia, with warlords and districts taking.

• 41:35Speaker 06

  Okay, well, there's a lot there, so I, I agree with the failed state, because I think they feel like they can manage a failed state better. Uh, but in their way long-term interest, they would, uh, Trump is gonna, Trump, Trump's vision is right. So let's go over the different things. If, if we pull out, they'll declare victory, the IRGC will rebuild itself. It will stiffen its repression internally, which will really cause great anguish for most of the population. That's them. The Israelis, Tom's point, they want a failed state, because again, you can see their interests diverging from the United States. And for us to win this thing, and unfortunately, right now, as a money manager or somebody that's

• 42:17Speaker 06

  studied this stuff, I don't see us winning this thing the way we would like to win it, Patrick. Uh, but if the, the optimal Elysium Field winning, they topple, uh, a new government is formed that is moving towards the West and is more aligned with the Gulf nations. And you have this whole brand-new configuration, and then this summit meeting, uh, becomes very interesting, because Trump goes in, he says, knock it off with the rare earth minerals. President Xi, I'm gonna send you as much oil as you need, not just from Venezuela, and not just from, uh, Iran, which is where you've been getting it now, I'm gonna send it from everywhere. You're gonna have lower prices, but I need the rare earth.

• 43:00Speaker 06

  minerals and we're going to compete with each other and I'm going to tariff you you're going to tariff me but we have to stay in cohabitation on planet earth even though we have different systems so that's the hope for me but I think the most likely outcome is that the regime is completely degraded the Americans pull out oil prices go down as we said earlier in the show and the Israelis are sitting there simmering saying to themselves okay we're going to have to do this another way I mean they're going to have to you know they're going to someone's going to have to find that uranium because you know these people are fixated on destroying Israel and they've been saying it repeatedly and I'll put it to everybody on this panel and you as our host if you were the prime minister

• 43:43Speaker 06

  of Israel you would have no choice to stay on this Patrick because you have to

• 43:48Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, I agree. I agree for them.

• 43:50Speaker 06

  Have to protect your country.

• 43:51Patrick Bet-David?

  Is that is I agree for them the question for me is you know in your eyes is the victory for Iran the same as Tom's of them just staying in power same same thing there.

• 44:04Speaker 06

  Yeah, but I think but again I was just adding some flavor to what Tom is saying they're gonna they're gonna stiffen you know they're gonna put a big hurt on their public this is gonna be worse for their public first of all it's gonna be a way poorer nation it's gonna be more isolated and in order to stay in power they're gonna have to repress their their public population way more.

• 44:26Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, they have to for people who know history it's the Pol Pot move Pol Pot was brutal but once the smoke cleared and he was up then guess what happened that's where you get the killing fields he just took everybody out every citizen this is worse than Castro Castro took out doctors and lawyers and people remember Castro did it so never mind Pol Pot let you just look at Castro what he did to the educated to the people that were there it was miserable and what Castro did in those those three years you know how anybody on the liberal side has ever seen him in a positive light is odd to me but that's what you're gonna get exactly what he said and we've seen it we've seen

• 45:10Tom Ellsworth?

  Pol Pot we've seen Castro the war is over the West backs off and the citizens get slaughtered.

• 45:14Patrick Bet-David?

  I think if they if Iran IRGC survives the Iranian people who protested against it oh my god.

• 45:27Patrick Bet-David?

  They're gonna experience hell in ways that because guess what they officially don't have? Who officially has their back?

• 45:34Speaker 07

  Nobody.

• 45:34Patrick Bet-David?

  Nobody. They're gonna be, there's gonna, the level of suppression.

• 45:40Speaker 07

  And they're not armed and they have no way.

• 45:41Patrick Bet-David?

  And they're not armed and they're not protected and they can turn off the internet and they can end it. And, and they can do, it officially gives the IRGC so much power to say, "We can do whatever we want to you because the most feared man on earth, the last forty, fifty years, "we went up against him and we won. So if we can beat him, what do you think we can do to you?" That's what's gonna be told on Iranian state TV every single day.

• 46:07Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 46:07Patrick Bet-David?

  "We beat Trump." That's what they're gonna say.

• 46:10Speaker 07

  It's only ten to twenty percent of the population that supports the regime too, by the way. So I mean, it, I mean, is it out of fear that they didn't revolt? Is it because we took a half measure and we weren't prepared to go all the way with it? Like, it doesn't seem like it's that much force.

• 46:23Speaker 06

  They're unarmed, they have no militia.

• 46:24Speaker 07

  But like, we have assets in there though, like, we have Mossad agents undercover in there. I'm assuming we have CIA agents undercover there. Why can't we smuggle in weapons?

• 46:32Speaker 06

  They admitted that they killed three thousand. We're saying that they killed at least thirty thousand. So you're in a protest in Iran and they're coming at you with machine guns. Oh, by the way, you know, some of the IRGC guys said, "Hey, I'm not gonna shoot these citizens." They hired Iraqis and they brought Iraqis into the country to kill the Iranian citizens. This is a brutal, horrific, state sponsor of terrorism, repressive regime that would turn, in order to survive, turn itself on its own citizens. So, I don't know, maybe you could smuggle stuff in there. It seems very improbable to do the logistics that you would need.

• 47:13Patrick Bet-David?

  It's so big.

• 47:13Speaker 06

  And, and by the way, they got forty-seven years of entrenched power in this country. So it would be a very, it would be a big dislodge. I think, I think again, Trump was told, rightly or wrongly, "There are three or four secularists, if we can get them in power, "CIA, Mossad can work with them and we could end the regime and we end the terrorist nightmare." And the Israelis said, "Hey, we're not having that, we're going for the failed state."

• 47:38Patrick Bet-David?

  And guess what? If, if you did, if that's the scenario? And Israel went for the failed state. And then if I'm Trump now, and I say, I thought this was the plan. You went more aggressive than we planned on going. I, I don't have your back now. I'm out. So I, I wouldn't be surprised if knowing Trump's profile of how he is. He just says, we're out, we've done our part, we cleaned it up. Gulf states, you know, all came to us. Now we're together, we're at least unified. We know the enemy is Iran, but I'm not gonna do anything else.

• 48:10Speaker 07

  He won't do that, can I tell you why? He's gonna get tricked into thinking there's actually uranium there. Which, well.

• 48:15Patrick Bet-David?

  You think Trump's gonna get tricked into thinking there's uranium there?

• 48:18Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 48:19Patrick Bet-David?

  So you think the end of this is not here yet? You think the worst attacks are not here yet?

• 48:24Speaker 07

  Oh, yeah, no, I think this is gonna be drawn out. I mean, unless they get extra savage, like you have to get more savage, but you have to clear out the um, straightforward moves, you have to hit more targets in, in Iran.

• 48:34Patrick Bet-David?

  The reason why I think you have to do that is because you're in too deep.

• 48:37Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 48:38Patrick Bet-David?

  You go to a club with your friends. You go to a club with your friends, okay? So guys start talking to each other, okay? And you motherfucker, you, you got your own crew of 10? They got their own crew of 10. They're going through it, okay? All right. So then they punch, they punch, great, no problem, punches is no problem. Then one of your guys goes and spits in the leader's face.

• 49:03Speaker 07

  Mm-hmm.

• 49:05Patrick Bet-David?

  And you know this as a leader of a gang.

• 49:06Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 49:08Patrick Bet-David?

  What do you think is about to happen tonight?

• 49:10Speaker 07

  Yeah, brawl.

• 49:11Patrick Bet-David?

  Oh, it's not a brawl, spitting it.

• 49:13Speaker 07

  Yeah, we take the guns out.

• 49:14Patrick Bet-David?

  Oh, i, i, you better be ready for anything and everything if they

• 49:20Patrick Bet-David?

  that and that, we spat in their face.

• 49:23Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 49:24Patrick Bet-David?

  Of the leader.

• 49:25Speaker 07

  Right.

• 49:25Patrick Bet-David?

  And we said, here's what we're doing to you. So now we're so in too deep, to me, you know, the, the, the part about, you know, trying to juggle two ideas at the same time, right? The one side which is like, hey, we made our point, we've done our part, let's get out, let's think business, let's think economy. We're good, let's move on. The other side. Hey Marco, what do you want to do? Hex it, what do we do? We are so into deep in this thing. What are the generals recommending? The ones that we trust? Hey, we know what Israel's gonna tell us. We're so close, let's finish the job. They're about to, you know. We know what Reza Pahlavi and his followers are saying. You know, you know, we are so close. We almost have them, the people, they're about to defect. They're about to defect and you're like, I'm not seeing a lot of military defecting and siding with you.

• 50:10Patrick Bet-David?

  You keep saying they're gonna defect, but we don't see anybody.

• 50:12Speaker 06

  Right.

• 50:12Patrick Bet-David?

  Publicly defecting. He has to juggle these two ideas. And at the end of the day, guess who has to make the decision?

• 50:18Speaker 06

  Trump.

• 50:19Patrick Bet-David?

  Himself.

• 50:19Speaker 06

  Yeah.

• 50:20Patrick Bet-David?

  And is he gonna go here or is he gonna go here?

• 50:22Speaker 06

  I wanna, so I wanna make, I wanna predict an outcome.

• 50:25Patrick Bet-David?

  Go for it.

• 50:25Speaker 06

  And let's see what happens. The outcome is five to 10 more days of intense battle and intense strikes. And intense. And then we're gonna, we're gonna come up with a system, which we don't have right now, which is why there's been miscommunication for clearing out the strait. Uh, and then we're gonna go to our Gulf partners and say, we're done for right now. We're gonna tell the Israelis, we're sorry that we're done. We're gonna help you covertly, uh, look for the uranium and stuff like that. And I'll tell you why. He does not wanna go into the midterms with a ground war. It's polling at 12%.

• 51:04Speaker 06

  He doesn't wanna go, uh, into the spring in the United States with a aerial attack like this. Cause it's only, this is the worst polling war.

• 51:14Speaker 07

  Yeah, with oil prices at this, going into the summer?

• 51:17Speaker 06

  Yeah, yeah, top polling war, uh, was World War II, 98%. You never get to everybody, right? This is the worst polling war. Below Korea, below all the other wars. And so for me, that's the move for Trump. He's already signaled that to his friends in the Gulf. And the one thing that I wanna address here is Trump likes money. And he gets money from the Israeli donors, he gets money from Sheldon Adelson's widow, and he's getting a lot of money from the Gulf states in terms of these real estate deals that his kids keep announcing. He's got $4 billion that he's made so far in the first term.

• 51:53Tom Ellsworth?

  PIF.

• 51:54Speaker 06

  The PIF, and he doesn't want that pulled away from him. And whether Trump supporters that listen to your show like it or not, he's motivated by money, he's motivated by attention, and I think those two things are gonna...

• 52:06Speaker 07

  And legacy at this point, though.

• 52:08Speaker 06

  Pull him out of the conf.

• 52:09Speaker 07

  He doesn't want a bad legacy.

• 52:10Speaker 06

  Legacy, he's less concerned about that.

• 52:12Patrick Bet-David?

  You think legacy's number one?

• 52:13Speaker 07

  At this point in life.

• 52:14Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, you don't think legacy's number one?

• 52:16Speaker 07

  I think an extra billion dollars is more important than legacy when you're worth $5 billion.

• 52:19Patrick Bet-David?

  If legacy's number one?

• 52:20Speaker 06

  You see, now you're thinking like you. You're not thinking like Trump.

• 52:23Speaker 07

  I think he cares about legacy and image.

• 52:24Speaker 06

  No, Trump wants to be the richest person in the world.

• 52:26Speaker 07

  I think he wants to be remembered as the greatest person in the world.

• 52:29Speaker 06

  Trump's making the move for another 20 to 100 billion dollars of dough for himself.

• 52:32Speaker 07

  You don't think he wants to be remembered as the greatest president that did all these things?

• 52:35Speaker 06

  I think it's secondary. I think the three things are money, attention, he's gotta have us talking about him, and then the third thing is if I generally do a good job, as long as it keeps inside the ambit of my self-interest, then that's fine.

• 52:52Speaker 07

  Yeah, in my opinion, I think he'd rather be number one president of all time than be $5 billion instead of $6 billion. But, quick thing, why I think he got duped is because every military...

• 52:59Speaker 06

  You got raised Catholic?

• 53:00Speaker 07

  Yes.

• 53:01Speaker 06

  Yeah, see, he thinks like a Catholic. He's a good guy.

• 53:03Speaker 07

  I guess it's a good thing.

• 53:04Speaker 06

  No, I'm a Catholic. I mean, you got raised Catholic. You're talking like a Catholic. That's not how Trump thinks.

• 53:08Speaker 07

  Real quick, though, so I think he got duped here because every military strike that he's done has been like Art of War style where it's basically, it's over before you even know what happened. Very smooth, meticulous, clean, and it's done by the time you're hearing about. But this one, completely different than whether it's the Syria attack, whether it's the first Iran attack, whether it's the Venezuela attack. So, I don't know what went wrong here, who gave him bad information, if he was manipulated, if they didn't anticipate certain things, but that's why I think it's gonna drag out, because it's uncharacteristic of the other attacks that he did.

• 53:35Speaker 06

  Can I ask a question?

• 53:36Patrick Bet-David?

  Sure.

• 53:37Speaker 06

  So...

• 53:38Patrick Bet-David?

  By the way, just so you know, background, masters and bachelors in national security, so this is like...

• 53:44Speaker 06

  Okay, so that, it's such a good point, I have to ask a follow-up question. So... There are neo cons still working for Trump. They're shrouded in MAGA, right?

• 53:53Patrick Bet-David?

  Sure.

• 53:53Speaker 06

  And you know who they are, right?

• 53:54Patrick Bet-David?

  Lindsey Graham is who you're talking about.

• 53:55Speaker 06

  Lindsey Graham is one of them, right? And you know, in some ways more.

• 53:57Patrick Bet-David?

  Which by the way, on the Republican side, probably the most hated guy in the Republican side this week. Is that fair to say?

• 54:02Speaker 06

  Almost like a cartoon.

• 54:04Patrick Bet-David?

  Everywhere, yeah.

• 54:04Speaker 06

  Almost like a cartoon character.

• 54:06Patrick Bet-David?

  Right.

• 54:06Speaker 06

  When con, take, you know.

• 54:07Speaker 07

  Below the surface, Nikki Haley and others on boards and influence.

• 54:10Speaker 06

  Yeah, yeah, Pompeo.

• 54:11Patrick Bet-David?

  But Haley's been kinda low key. Lindsey's in front of camera 24/7 right now.

• 54:14Speaker 07

  He gets way too excited.

• 54:15Speaker 06

  So, so let me, not to make Trump paranoid or think paranoid, but let me ask you a question, okay? So, if I'm Trump, and I know I'm in, surrounded by neo cons that love this sort of stuff, right? Like, if we did a seance with Dick Cheney right now, he's dancing, probably the dancing in hell in purgatory. I don't think Dick made it to heaven, right? But, but I'm just saying, answer the following question.

• 54:38Speaker 07

  Okay.

• 54:39Speaker 06

  Mission, when the mission is over, do those guys go hard at him with the Epstein files? Okay, to knock his block off, to take him out, and replace him with somebody like Vance? Who they think they have more control over.

• 54:55Speaker 07

  If he doesn't do what they want him to do, you're saying?

• 54:56Speaker 06

  Correct.

• 54:57Speaker 07

  I think that people already went after him as hard as they could with the Epstein stuff. I mean, you know, what more could they have?

• 55:03Speaker 06

  I'm talking about shots from inside the tent. I'm talking about the neo cons.

• 55:07Speaker 07

  Mm-hmm.

• 55:07Speaker 06

  Going hard at him.

• 55:08Speaker 07

  Yeah, I mean, that's a fair question to ask, but no, I don't, I don't think that's a factor. I think that's a reach. I think the Epstein thing hit its peak already.

• 55:15Patrick Bet-David?

  You're saying neo cons are doing what?

• 55:17Speaker 06

  I'm just, if I were, if I were, look, I used to.

• 55:20Speaker 07

  Holding it over Trump?

• 55:20Patrick Bet-David?

  Holding the Epstein over him?

• 55:21Speaker 06

  Yes, so, yes. And by the way, by the way, I don't know what's in those files or not. And I've said repeatedly that he's never gonna get strafed or hit by those files. So, I'm in, I'm in your camp there. Unless there's a bomb somewhere in the file that I don't know about, you don't know about, but they know about.

• 55:37Speaker 07

  Mm-hmm.

• 55:38Speaker 06

  Question is, would they use it on him? Once they have used him.

• 55:43Patrick Bet-David?

  Would Lindsey use it on him?

• 55:44Speaker 06

  Not him, I'm talking about these other guys. These, all these guys, see, all these guys want power, okay? Look, I got an 11-day PhD in Washington scumbaggery. They all get up in the morning, when they put their suits on, they want to be the president. They want to be, they want to be powerful. They're willing, it's worse than the House of Cards on Netflix. They're willing to take everybody out to serve their own personal interests. And so that's what I'm asking you. And you're saying you're not worried about that. And that would give me comfort if you're saying that.

• 56:11Speaker 07

  Yeah, I, I mean, I'm sure he's influenced by certain people. I just don't think it's about that at this point. I think that people already came at them, at him as hard as they could with the Epstein stuff. And I don't imagine that's a factor.

• 56:21Patrick Bet-David?

  I think if there's one thing about his profile, it is a couple of things. And look, it's obvious that, you know, the two of you guys have... By the way, if you're watching this and if you agree or disagree with Anthony, you want to ask him a question, he's on my neck, you can send him a my neck then. Agree, disagree, send him an article, what do you think about this? What do you think about that?

• 56:38Speaker 06

  And that's a new my neck? I mean, just literally did that in the green room, Patrick.

• 56:42Patrick Bet-David?

  That's how quickly this works, so you're officially on my neck, but...

• 56:44Tom Ellsworth?

  You will be shocked how many people come ask your new questions.

• 56:47Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, it's a great conversation, it's a great exchange. But, but going back to it, to me, you know, apart with you, obviously, the market knows you're not a pro-Trump guy. So you're not somebody that's pro-Trump, but I would say you're probably more... Your, your emotions are lower today towards him than it was two years ago, four years ago, six years ago?

• 57:09Speaker 06

  I mean, once he went after my wife on Twitter, I am an Italian, you have to remember that. At the end of the day, I am an Italian kid from Long Island, grew up in a blue-collar neighborhood. Don't go after my wife on Twitter, who's never once said one thing about you publicly. And who the hell are you to do that after I gave you a million dollars personally? Worked on your campaign for over a year, was on your executive transition team? I said one thing that you didn't like on the Bill Maher Show? And Bill told me he was going to go after me. And Bill said to me, "You were seven for eight for Donald Trump tonight, you gotta go 10 for 13." So he's attacking my wife, Patrick? Let me tell you something about you, because I watch your show. Almost every week.

• 57:52Speaker 06

  If this guy, after you did all of that for him, and you did one thing that he didn't like, started attacking your wife, who is the mother of your children, I think he'd be pretty lit up.

• 58:03Patrick Bet-David?

  And by the way-

• 58:03Speaker 06

  Maybe you wouldn't be, but I'm telling you, I would be.

• 58:05Patrick Bet-David?

  FYI, I'm glad you said that. You know why I'm glad you said that?

• 58:07Speaker 06

  And I know most people would be.

• 58:09Patrick Bet-David?

  You know why I'm glad you said that?

• 58:10Speaker 06

  Yeah, tell me.

• 58:10Patrick Bet-David?

  Because it's important for the-

• 58:12Speaker 06

  I couldn't even live- I couldn't even live in my neighborhood if I didn't respond to that.

• 58:15Patrick Bet-David?

  I fully understand that. So for me, it's important for the market to know why you feel the way you feel. So, respect there.

• 58:22Speaker 06

  It's personal.

• 58:23Patrick Bet-David?

  It is, and I respect that. I respect the fact that he did that the audience need. That's exactly what I wanted. But let me give you where I'm going with this. To me, I think the profile of Trump is, you know, he wants, he believes that he truly is Teflon. He believes he's Teflon.

• 58:41Speaker 06

  No question.

• 58:41Patrick Bet-David?

  He believes he's Teflon. So he believes nothing can get in his way. Nothing. What did he say the other day? He says, "Yeah, you know what? We won't even believe. Who's calling me right now? Everybody's calling me right now. It's like I can't do anything wrong." It's like he said this, I think, a week ago, or maybe five days ago, right? So he believes that at the highest level. So do I think, in his mind, he thinks the Epstein stuff's gonna come and go, and he can Teflon that out? I think he believes that, okay? Where he's at, to the core. Number two, I do think, if you sit down, two nights ago, I'm having a conversation with my son after one of the games that he had. I sat him down, and I asked my wife to come in to have a conversation with him. And I sat there and I explained to him. I said, "Listen, let me explain to you." And I sold him the idea of what it is

• 59:24Patrick Bet-David?

  to mastering something and winning. And that moment where you go here, where it's like, "Oh, my God, I'm actually very good at what I do." If you really want to experience that, it's one of the greatest highs in life. And I saw him, I saw the eyes getting, uh, what do you call it?

• 59:41Speaker 06

  Intense?

• 59:42Patrick Bet-David?

  Intense, and not crying, but you can tell it was filled with, you know, uh, uh, he's emotional. He's feeling it. Okay, and this is not an emotional guy, he's feeling it, right? And I said, okay, this is great because he's receiving it. This is something that'll move him. Okay. Where am I going with this? I believe if you're having a conversation with Trump, the old timers, the Condoleezza Rice types, th- these types of people that you kind of talk about. Which by the way, she all of a sudden showed up. When's the last time you saw her around? She's now here? What part of the campus Condoleezza Rice? Hello. Yeah. Like it goes old school with her.

• 1:00:22Patrick Bet-David?

  Second term. What dream you think is being sold to him? What dream is being sold? You think the dream is being sold of, hey, guess what? One day you can be one of the richest men on earth. You're not going to be. Elon Musk is worth, just so everybody knows, the numbers came out. Elon's worth eight hundred and forty billion dollars. The next four combined are not worth what Elon is worth. They were all two hundred, two hundred, two hundred, two hundred. And he's worth eight hundred and forty billion dollars. So guess what? Those days is so ahead of you. Could you be worth twenty billion, forty billion, eighty billion? Yeah. But you're not. When you're worth forty billion, Elon's gonna be worth thirty trillion. So you ain't never gonna go into the room like you did forty years ago when you're sitting with David Letterman and be the richest billionaire new. It's not gonna happen. Those days are behind us because compound interest is gonna work against you.

• 1:01:07Patrick Bet-David?

  And the stuff that you're investing in, they're running and they own sixteen percent. And so I don't know if you, you understand math and business. So that one's out the window. But to me, if somebody's s- sitting there selling the dream

• 1:01:20Patrick Bet-David?

  of Mount Rushmore? Yeah. You're not gonna get there just based off of economy. Right. You have to do something big. And you have to make a massive empire fall. You have to make a massive enemy fall. You have to. Yeah. If he wants that on his resume, what is it? You think, you think on the resume, if he takes over Greenland, that's Mount Rushmore worthy? No. You think if he brings back Cuba or, you know, it's part of the country, like the next Puerto Rico? No. You think Venezuela's Mount Rushmore? No. You think toppling Iran regime collapse similar to?

• 1:01:56Patrick Bet-David?

  Mr. Gorbachev, you know, tear down this wall? That type of a moment? Guess what? He's a very, very competitive guy. And just like Edelman. Is it Edelman that was the slot receiver for Brady?

• 1:02:11Speaker 06

  Yeah.

• 1:02:11Patrick Bet-David?

  You ever seen the clip in Tom Brady's documentary? Says, "You suck. You're old. You're not, you're done, you're washed up." And Brady goes, "Shut the [bleep]." He's going back in the documentary. Because you know, Edelman's trying to get, "Hey, you're a great president. But Ronald Reagan caused the wall to come down. What have you caused to come down? Nothing. So you haven't even done what Reagan has done. If someone's poking to try to poke, knowing his DNA, he knows legacy is going to be written. He did great here, great here, great here. But you're not Reagan yet. Because Reagan made Soviet Union, USSR. And today's Soviet Union is Iran. So to me, if he is legacy,

• 1:02:57Patrick Bet-David?

  he's got to go ahead and do this for the history books. If he's purely economy, he's going to step on and say, "No, guys, we got to get our World Cup is around the corner. I don't want any issues with people coming down here." So again, I don't know because none of us are inside his head to see what he's going to be driven by. But guess what's true? We're going to know in the next three years. We're going to know the next three years.

• 1:03:16Speaker 06

  I'm going with, you made a very compelling point. But I'm going with option two because,

• 1:03:23Patrick Bet-David?

  Economy?

• 1:03:24Speaker 06

  Because I, you know, listen, I did 71,

• 1:03:27Patrick Bet-David?

  Safer decision.

• 1:03:28Speaker 06

  I did 71 campaign stops with him. Knew him for 20 years in New York. I have been fairly predictive of a lot of things that he does, primarily because I understand general nature of his personality. He definitely wants to topple Iran. But he's really thinking about, okay, what is this going to mean for me? And my family and my pocketbook. And, you know, he's got some things coming right now that he doesn't want to interfere with. Let's talk what they are. He's got an 80th birthday celebration. Our friend Dana White is going to be celebrating with him on the White House South Lawn with the UFC fight. He's got the World Cup coming and he's got the 250th anniversary of the US.

• 1:04:11Speaker 06

  I don't think he wants to be in a quagmire. Now,

• 1:04:16Tom Ellsworth?

  You know, if you told me they got to him in the Situation Room and what you just said, it was totally achievable and he had to do X, Y, and Z, then, you know, I would say, okay, yeah, that probably would work. But I don't see that achievable right now based on what's on the playing field.

• 1:04:34Patrick Bet-David?

  Tom.

• 1:04:35Speaker 04

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• 1:05:04Speaker 01

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• 1:05:34Speaker 07

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• 1:05:50Tom Ellsworth?

  I think it's, people talk about Quagmire, and maybe this is pessimistic, but I think we're there. I think we're at the front door of Quagmire. And now we gotta figure out a way to get out, and there's no good way to get out. And if you back out, think about it. I never thought I'd be saying this, but if he backs out, this could be like, like a failed retreat from extraction from Afghanistan. This could be like Carter backing out. This is the one country Cheney said, it's all about Iran. It's not Iraq. It's gonna be about Iran. Ben Chaney said that when he was getting the president to look for weapons of mass destructions that were not there in Iraq. Everybody has looked at Iran and said, this is the guy.

• 1:06:35Tom Ellsworth?

  It's like for 20 years, this is Muhammad Ali and everybody, everybody wanted to get to him. And it wasn't until age got to Ali that he ever lost. And so this is just drives me a little nuts. I think we're at the, I mean, maybe this is pessimistic, Pat, but I think we're at the front door of quagmire and we gotta, we gotta figure this out.

• 1:06:58Patrick Bet-David?

  So you're not going option two with him. You're going option one. He's going to wrap it up for legacy.

• 1:07:02Speaker 07

  He's going all the way.

• 1:07:03Patrick Bet-David?

  You think so?

• 1:07:03Speaker 07

  Yeah. I think it's more likely that we have a ground invasion than a back out.

• 1:07:06Patrick Bet-David?

  Can you run, can you run a poll on that? I mean, listen, don't put the word quagmire, like, don't, don't do that simplified for the audience.

• 1:07:12Tom Ellsworth?

  No, I use that word because that gets used a lot more.

• 1:07:14Speaker 06

  Hold on a second. You think he's going all the way to put ground, ground troops?

• 1:07:16Speaker 07

  I said, I said, I think boots on the ground is more likely than a complete pullout. I think the most likely option is that something fast and unexpected happens that makes the situation better.

• 1:07:24Speaker 06

  So polling at 12% on the ground troops, Trump's like, I gotta get this on my resume.

• 1:07:30Speaker 07

  I'm not saying I think that's going to happen. I'm saying I think that's more likely than a complete pullout.

• 1:07:34Speaker 06

  I'm fascinated by that view.

• 1:07:35Speaker 07

  I think the most likely option is something, you know, actually competent because I think they're regathering their, well, they're re, regathering their plan right now.

• 1:07:42Patrick Bet-David?

  If Israel, out of the 50 that were killed, if Trump's plan was only three or four and they went and did the other 45, they're, they're making it to say, listen, I spit in the guy's face, what should we do now? You want to go home? Cause they're, they're coming.

• 1:07:59Speaker 07

  Yeah. And they're, that's all, that's in their nature.

• 1:08:01Patrick Bet-David?

  That's what I'm saying. So to me, if, if they, if they, if they intentionally did that, I think this just goes in deeper. If they did, I don't know the intel, I don't know the stories.

• 1:08:15Speaker 07

  Well, we gave them the weapon and the intel and they just used it to kill him, so.

• 1:08:18Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, but he kept saying, you killed the next guy. Like Anthony said earlier, you know, we had a guy, but they killed him.

• 1:08:23Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 1:08:23Patrick Bet-David?

  Who's they?

• 1:08:23Speaker 07

  Right.

• 1:08:24Patrick Bet-David?

  You know, so if, if that's the case, they're saying, hey, we're already in so deep, you know, if we turn around, the people are going to say Iran won. Do you want that on your resume? What do you think you should do? So it's like, it's like one of those moments that we don't know. Let me go to the next story. Let me go to the next story, which I think, I'd like to spend a couple of minutes on this, not a long time, just quick thoughts on this. Story came in, Rob, can we real quick pull up the clip of US forces, forces sink 16 Iranian mine layers as reports say Tehran is mining. The Strait of Hormuz, I believe you have a clip on this, uh, is this it?

• 1:08:58Tom Ellsworth?

  Yes.

• 1:08:58Patrick Bet-David?

  Go for it, Ron.

• 1:09:02Patrick Bet-David?

  That's the strike.

• 1:09:03Tom Ellsworth?

  Yep.

• 1:09:03Patrick Bet-David?

  And we did that 16 of them.

• 1:09:05Tom Ellsworth?

  Yes, sir.

• 1:09:06Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, and these are not big, these are small, fast, like Tom was talking, let me read this time and then I'm gonna come to you. "American forces on Tuesday sunk several Iranian ships, including 60 mine layers near Strait of Hormuz." "The US announcement followed a post by President Trump that said if Iran had put any mines in the strait, "we want them removed immediately. If for any reason mines were placed and they are not removed forthwith, "the military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before. If on the other hand, they remove what they have been placed, "it will be a giant step in the right direction," Trump said in a truth social.

• 1:09:45Patrick Bet-David?

  So, as they're gonna, Trump later claimed that 10 inactive mislaid ships were sunk, located between Oman and Iran. The strait saw roughly 30 million barrels of crude oil passing through 25. Tom, your thoughts on this?

• 1:09:56Tom Ellsworth?

  So, for people to kinda understand, the thing that created a huge problem in Afghanistan, Iraq and other places was IEDs. Low tech, it's not a giant missile you can see, it's not a big radar installation. Those improvised explosive devices created out of gas canisters, hidden at little, um, you know, pipes by the side of the road, sewer pipes, activated with cell phones, low tech, but very effective at stopping, very effective at creating havoc, very effective at interrupting a highly organized opponent. So, the US and its friends are highly organized opponents in the Gulf,

• 1:10:39Tom Ellsworth?

  and these mines are basically the IEDs of the water. Uh, the small, fast boats, they only need about a 40-foot boat, 25-foot boat. These things sit on the back almost like lobster traps, they have weights that hold them six to eight feet below the surface. They're hard to see, so you need sophisticated techniques to see them. Once they put those out there, it's like a grenade that goes off if it gets bumped. Well, guess what? Bumping hard is what a large ship would do. So this is low tech and really a pain in the neck to, um, this is why, one of the reasons Lloyd's of London pulled back and said, hey, we're not going to insure you if you come through this because it's not just about the Iranian big navy.

• 1:11:21Tom Ellsworth?

  It's also about all of this, about drones that could just, you know, dive down onto the tanker or, or these. And so for the US is now entering a phase that says, we got to get to the mine, uh, the mine laying boats, which are not very big. We got 16 of them yesterday. This is talking to Lloyd's of London. This is talking to oil transportation companies. This is not really talking to the American people. They're trying to build confidence in the Strait of Hormuz and say, we're taking care of it. We're going out after it. And then they have to have other detection systems to see if they can detonate these things or find them and remove them safely from the water. That's what's going on. IEDs of the water. Anthony.

• 1:12:01Speaker 06

  Well, I generally agree with all that. I think I would just add a layer to that. There's 250,000 Iranians living in Abu Dhabi and Dubai right now. Lots of them are princelings from the regime. And the banking, uh, whether we like it or not, I think, uh, everybody here that has national security background knows that most of the sanctions avoiding, most of the money laundering is primarily going through Dubai. And so they, if they get those banks shut down on them, that's going to be a disaster for that regime. And so they don't want that to happen, which is why last weekend they were apologizing for shooting rockets at them. They continued to shoot them, but they're really trying to find a balance.

• 1:12:46Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah. My bad, I was aiming for a US naval.

• 1:12:49Speaker 06

  Yeah. So, so I think one, I think you're going to be right. I think they're going to straighten out the Strait of Hormuz, give more, more confidence to Trump to say that he's got unconditional surrender and victory. And then the secondary reason is that regime is going to stay on, which it likely will. They're going to have to do business with the Emiratis. And so it's all, it's all connected. So this, this won't, there won't be a lot of blowback for blowing up these minesweepers.

• 1:13:16Speaker 07

  Yeah. You know what's fascinating is that for some reason Chinese shadow fleets are still making their way through the Strait of Hormuz. So I don't know who's letting that, I don't know why, one, I don't know why we're putting up with this, like trying to negotiate with it. Like this is a part, we're talking about half measures, like what happened to, you know, decapitating them? Why are we even having the conversation of they better not be putting mines in the war? Like, we spend a trillion dollars a year on our, on our defense, our national security is like, there shouldn't be a single thing in the world that we aren't able to do, that we aren't able to fix in an instant. But, you know, we're hearing about these low tech drones. And I know, and I hear your point about low tech being able to inconvenience high tech. But why aren't we able to produce drones right now? Like, why, why haven't we factored in every possible contingency or situation that we could have been faced with?

• 1:14:01Speaker 07

  Like, you're telling me that we were planning this attack, but we didn't come across this, oh, hey, they might try to put mines in the Strait of Hormuz if we do this. Let's be ready for that. Let's have, like, we've been moving our military, our navy to this area for the last couple of months. Why, like, why are we seeming like we're unprepared for the situation? That's what's baffling to me. And unacceptable too. Like, we waste a ton of money on defense. Like, we know we get price gouged on our defense. We know, like, we pay $300 for a screwdriver. We know we pay double the price for like these planes and these rockets and drones that we buy. So that's what pisses me off. It's like, one thing if we're gonna get price gouged and taxed and all that, but we better have everything that we need for these situations.

• 1:14:37Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, it's true. And it's funny is because a part of it is, I was in the military and we would buy the stuff. And I'm like, wait, how much do we pay for these lug nut? Are you, is this a joke? Well, this is what we do as, and we always overpay. A part of it is also when the budget gets bigger and spending less, the next time around you come, then they're like, well, you don't need that much anyways. You can get, so I don't know if you saw the report that came in about the lobster and the food and the, did you see all the stories that came out?

• 1:15:06Speaker 06

  Seven million for lobster last quarter.

• 1:15:07Patrick Bet-David?

  Yes, seven million for lobster this quarter. So.

• 1:15:11Speaker 07

  But no drones.

• 1:15:12Patrick Bet-David?

  It it looks like what you think, yeah, nine million dollars spent on crab legs. This is a story that just came out today in the months before Iran reports. So, listen, at least our guys have good quality protein with these crab legs, right? Like, we're ready for what could possibly happen. But it's a it's a it's a it's a bigger story than that.

• 1:15:29Speaker 07

  I don't mind it if we're paying market price.

• 1:15:32Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, I'm with you. But they there that's the part where a business business people like us will look at this and say, what the hell are you doing?

• 1:15:40Speaker 07

  Never.

• 1:15:41Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah. What are you doing?

• 1:15:42Speaker 07

  Now, we're unequipped. We're unequipped for a situation.

• 1:15:44Patrick Bet-David?

  Why are you paying for some of this stuff?

• 1:15:45Speaker 06

  I mean, listen, this.

• 1:15:46Patrick Bet-David?

  This is what Doge was supposed to do, by the way, if you think about it.

• 1:15:48Speaker 06

  Look what they did to him. They remember something about Washington, it has an immune system second to none. Okay, you get you you get you think about Elon Musk, how talented and successful he is, and think about the immunological system of Washington that found a way to eject him after, I don't know, 130 days.

• 1:16:06Speaker 07

  Yeah. So, yeah, I don't know if we can keep up this pace for a month or two. I don't know if we have the materials in the the cupboard. I think the cupboard's too empty to keep this up for a couple of months. And that's crazy to me that we spend 30 trillion in in defense over the last 30 years, and we don't have what it takes to handle the situation.

• 1:16:22Patrick Bet-David?

  Let me get to the next thing here. So, Trump and Putin discuss Iran in their first phone call. This is according to Bloomberg. Russia, Vladimir Putin, and US counterpart Donald Trump spoke, discussed Iran in their first phone call. The talks, which lasted about an hour, were constructive and businesslike and will undoubtedly have practical significance for the further work of the two countries in various areas of international politics, Taz News Agency reported. The leaders are also discussed the US-led peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. The peace talks have stalled after Trump ordered US forces to attack Iran. A planned fourth round of talks this year that was scheduled for last week was postponed because of the war in Iran, and the sites haven't indicated when they will resume.

• 1:17:06Patrick Bet-David?

  Putin and Trump also discussed Venezuela, according to.

• 1:17:11Patrick Bet-David?

  Ushakov, and I believe Putin told him that they're not leaking intel to Iranians. I think that was one of the conversations that took place because story came out saying that Russia, Putin are sharing intel with Iran. He says, I don't think we're doing anything like that. So Tom, what do you think about this call between Trump and Putin?

• 1:17:30Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, I'm interested what Anthony thinks because my question when I read about this and says, okay, why, why, why put this out there? Why tell people you had this call with Putin? You have all kinds of calls all day long with world leaders, economic leaders, banking leaders. There's all kinds of stuff that you or a cabinet member at the highest level with your authorization is having. Why come out to the podium and say, I'm talking to Putin? I had the first phone call this year. It was constructive. It's almost like you're reassuring. And to me, it sounded like a point of reassurance for our allies and others. You know what I'm saying? I was getting to why say it? Why do you need to

• 1:18:12Tom Ellsworth?

  say it? Why do you need to talk about the call? Why do you need to even put it, put it out there? Because you have a dozen calls like this every day, right?

• 1:18:19Speaker 06

  First of all, I don't know who it is, but there's a mole inside the White House, if you want to call it that, a source inside the White House that's dumping nonstop stuff to the Wall Street Journal. Okay. And that started with the 50-year-old birthday greeting, you know, the Shapley thing and the signature that Trump sent to Epstein. And then Trump said that he didn't send it to Epstein. He sued Murdoch for $10 billion, but then sued didn't go anywhere because he really did send it to Epstein. And so the reason you tell people about the call is that there's moles inside the White House that are going to tell people about the call one way or another because the report came from somebody

• 1:18:57Speaker 06

  inside the White House that got signals intelligence picked up that the Russians were sending detailed satellite imagery to the Iranians. And so that got dumped into our press from inside. Okay. So Trump has to talk. He, he loves Putin. Okay. He's done nothing to really help the Ukrainians since he got the job. Job again, job to Trump to, he loves Putin. Why does he love Putin? I submit to you Putin has something on him because it's like if the if the window's open, Tom, and you hear clippity clop, it's a horse, it's not a zebra. This is one of the very richest guys in the world, running the most powerful military,

• 1:19:40Speaker 06

  arguably the best economy in the history of the world, and you got a failed state that's an oil and gas country with a few nuclear bombs that has a GDP smaller than than Canada and Italy. Okay, and what are you doing? You could knock him into center field and end the Ukrainian war tomorrow, and there's a lot of people pissed inside that government that are leaking on Trump, and so that's why.

• 1:20:08Patrick Bet-David?

  This is what Trump said about Putin. Brandon, I'm gonna come to right after this. Go for it.

• 1:20:12Speaker 06

  Pass me the vomit bag.

• 1:20:13Speaker 04

  Do you approve of Iran's new supreme leader? And secondly, can you tell us more about your call with Russian President Vladimir Putin today? What did you discuss?

• 1:20:23Speaker 07

  Yes, I had a very good call with President Putin. We had a lot of people on the line from our side, from his side. We were talking about Ukraine, which is just a never-ending fight. And when, look, there's tremendous hatred between President Putin and President Zelensky. They can't seem to get it together, but I think it was a positive call on that subject. And we obviously talked then about the Middle East, and he wants to be helpful. I said, you could be more helpful by getting the Ukraine-Russia war over with, that would be more helpful. But we had a very good talk, and he wants to be very constructive. Yeah. Yeah, please.

• 1:21:07Speaker 06

  You're not pissed about this?

• 1:21:09Speaker 07

  Am I pissed about that?

• 1:21:10Speaker 06

  You love the Putin ask us?

• 1:21:12Speaker 07

  Do I love it?

• 1:21:13Speaker 06

  Yeah.

• 1:21:14Speaker 07

  So I was gonna, I'm glad you asked, because I was gonna ask you a question about that. So if he loved Putin, why why wouldn't he just, you know, take the weapons that we're giving away to Ukraine and let Putin steamroll Ukraine like he totally could have? Why were we still, why, actually, why wouldn't he, why wouldn't he help Putin against Ukraine? Why wouldn't he help Putin take Ukraine back? Why wouldn't he remove sanctions off of Russia immediately?

• 1:21:32Speaker 06

  But you can't do that. Thank God. Thank the good Lord.

• 1:21:35Speaker 07

  He removed sanctions.

• 1:21:36Speaker 06

  No, the United States has many checks and balances.

• 1:21:39Speaker 07

  Biden put sanctions on, Trump could take them off.

• 1:21:41Speaker 06

  Thune has gone to him. McConnell has gone to him. The national security complex has gone to him and said, you cannot do that. And that they would stop him from doing that. They also went to him prior to Davos and said, hey, you better knock off the stuff with Greenland. Okay, that is a treaty. You had troops preparing for a potential invasion of Greenland that were calling lawyers to say, hey, we're going to invade a country that we have a treaty with.

• 1:22:06Speaker 07

  You're talking about Putin or Greenland?

• 1:22:08Speaker 06

  No, I'm talking about they're all connected. Because you have people inside the government through the checks and balances of the system that are holding him back from doing the stuff that he would like to do for.

• 1:22:18Speaker 07

  But Greenland is a national security measure against Russia, though. That's why we want Greenland.

• 1:22:24Speaker 06

  No, Greenland is a attack on our allies to help Putin. Because when you go after NATO and you start attacking NATO, you're helping Putin. When you drop the materiel that we were sending to Ukraine in the Biden administration and are not sending it anymore, you're helping Putin. When you lift oil sanctions on the Russian oil, on the global oil markets, you're helping Putin. So you're telling me we're not helping Putin?

• 1:22:56Speaker 07

  He hasn't lifted the sanctions, though, so why isn't he doing?

• 1:22:59Speaker 06

  He did. He just announced it last. Bessent just announced it last week.

• 1:23:02Speaker 07

  No, that's what this conversation was about, that they're discussing.

• 1:23:04Speaker 06

  No, no, no. Go have somebody Google it. Did they lift Russian sanctions?

• 1:23:07Patrick Bet-David?

  Ways easing Russia sanctions.

• 1:23:09Speaker 06

  No, no, he did. But Bessent made the announcement.

• 1:23:11Patrick Bet-David?

  To cool oil prices. That's Reuters. They came out.

• 1:23:14Speaker 07

  So he's, yeah, so he's winging it. He didn't do it. Yeah, but I'm saying.

• 1:23:16Speaker 06

  He did it.

• 1:23:17Speaker 07

  Why wouldn't he do it day one, though? And I say, I imagine he's doing this to ease the oil market.

• 1:23:22Speaker 06

  Because, as you know, there are people in the government that are the permanent people. They see the president as the Christmas help. And they have stopped him from doing it.

• 1:23:32Speaker 07

  But if he wants to do something, he's going to do it. And he's been, he hasn't been kissing Putin's ass. He's been tough on Putin.

• 1:23:37Speaker 06

  Okay. He hasn't been kissing Putin's ass. Let's go to.

• 1:23:40Speaker 07

  Give me an example.

• 1:23:40Speaker 06

  Let me go to ChatGDP and come up with the 10 things that.

• 1:23:44Speaker 07

  Well, what, if you're, if you're so adamant about it, why can't you name at least one or two?

• 1:23:47Speaker 06

  I just named several of them.

• 1:23:49Speaker 07

  What?

• 1:23:49Speaker 06

  Okay.

• 1:23:50Speaker 07

  You said Greenland.

• 1:23:51Speaker 06

  Sanctions, Greenland, peeing all over our allies.

• 1:23:55Speaker 07

  How's Greenland kissing Putin's ass?

• 1:23:56Speaker 06

  Taking out the European alliance, which is obviously helpful to Putin. Even, even these conversations are helpful to Putin. The summit meeting that he had with Putin in Alaska. Who started the Ukraine war? Who started the war?

• 1:24:11Speaker 07

  Russia.

• 1:24:12Speaker 06

  Okay, okay, so they are, are they the?

• 1:24:14Speaker 07

  Actually, I would say NATO did because NATO decided, NATO decided to put weapons in the countries closer and closer to Russia.

• 1:24:21Speaker 06

  Okay, well, then, then let's go really go back in our history then, because in 1994, we signed an agreement, they were the sixth largest nuclear arsenal. And we said, give us your nukes. In exchange for that, we'll give you, you've been, you've been suppressed by the Russians for 300 plus years. We will give you security guarantees.

• 1:24:39Speaker 07

  Is it suppressed by the Russians for 300 years if you're part of Russia, though? Like, they were part of Russia for 97% of all of history of that territory. So we kind of went in there when the regime collapsed and said, all right, hey, guys, this could be a new country now. We'll help you run it.

• 1:24:51Speaker 06

  Hold on a second. The, so you're, you're saying that the Russians were not an imperialist power and took over those republics? So in 1991?

• 1:25:01Speaker 07

  Everybody took over everybody, so what are we talking about? Are you calling America imperialist for taking over this territory?

• 1:25:07Speaker 04

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• 1:25:40Speaker 06

  Yeah, of course, of course, look what we did. We killed 32 million Mexicans in the Mexican-American war.

• 1:25:45Speaker 07

  So what, are you mad that we took over Texas and California?

• 1:25:48Speaker 06

  I'm, am I mad that we took over Texas and California? No, I, I'm a realist about history, but this is current contemporary history that if you want to live.

• 1:25:59Speaker 06

  Even the rules-based order that we set up to protect our prosperity and to protect our freedoms here, you have to reject incursions into sovereign territory today. I'm not talking about the Mexican-American war, what happened in the 1630s. I'm talking about what happened in 2022. And so if you want to be in a rules-based society, and you want to reject this type of behavior, so that we can maintain dollar supremacy, maintain our freedoms, and project our power around the world, yeah, you got to reject nonsense like that. Yes, you do.

• 1:26:36Patrick Bet-David?

  What are you thinking right now? Listen to this exchange.

• 1:26:38Tom Ellsworth?

  So, two things. The first thing is, I think it's true that Trump has some sort of an affinity with Putin. I don't think he's betraying any of his America First objectives or anything like that, but there always has been, from the media to cabinet members, commenting, they said, you know, it's like, maybe, maybe he appreciates his style of leadership, not the execution of billionaires, or of dissidents, or the seizure of rightfully-owned companies, which Putin has done. There's a side of that government, Russian government over there, that I think we all know is a mob. So, but there's been this something

• 1:27:23Tom Ellsworth?

  that Trump has appreciated, liked, or otherwise been deferential to with Putin. It's always been there. The other side of it is, I'm not sure everything, I agree with Anthony on everything. Greenland, I think we were thinking a lot about rare earth minerals, and a lot about how China, at the beginning of the administration, that was a big question, because a lot of stuff was needed for US manufacturing. A lot of those minerals were needed, right? And so I really believe that he was trying to corner China, and that Greenland represented an opportunity to prevent China from extracting and working with rare earth minerals. But what it also did, it did put him into this collision with our quote-unquote

• 1:28:07Tom Ellsworth?

  friends in NATO, who said, wait a minute.

• 1:28:11Tom Ellsworth?

  You know, one of, one of the European countries has done a very good job managing Greenland the same way you've done a reasonable job managing Puerto Rico. That's kind of the relationship, right? Greenland is sovereign to a point, but it's managed and it gets welfare assistance from a European country. Puerto Rico has its own independence, but it gets support from us. So I think there is that going on. I'm, I'm not sure about the whole chess game that all the moves were helping Putin, but I do believe that the president's been deferential to him.

• 1:28:46Speaker 06

  Good, can I ask a question?

• 1:28:47Tom Ellsworth?

  But I think there was more to, I think it was more Greenland.

• 1:28:49Speaker 06

  In Helsinki, when the press asked them, "Do you believe your own intelligence about the Russians meddling in the 2016 election, or do you believe Putin?" What did he say?

• 1:29:00Tom Ellsworth?

  He said Putin.

• 1:29:02Speaker 06

  Yeah, okay.

• 1:29:02Speaker 07

  Well, because his own intelligence were working, they were spying on him, so he probably...

• 1:29:06Patrick Bet-David?

  You didn't just say that, Mooch. Come on, Anthony. You said that? You think he's gonna side with the Russian intelligence that the government, when they were, you know, going...

• 1:29:15Tom Ellsworth?

  I think siding with him and making a comment.

• 1:29:18Speaker 06

  Go to the tape, go to the tape.

• 1:29:19Tom Ellsworth?

  I don't know. Putin told me they did.

• 1:29:20Speaker 06

  Go to the tape. He said it. I didn't say it. He said it.

• 1:29:22Tom Ellsworth?

  He didn't, he didn't put a hand on a bible for Russia, but he was like, I don't know.

• 1:29:25Speaker 06

  He said, "I have no reason not to believe him," is what he said. "I'm not going by what I'm saying. I'm going by what he's saying."

• 1:29:31Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, if, if...

• 1:29:32Tom Ellsworth?

  But what he said...

• 1:29:33Speaker 06

  No, I was asked to provide evidence about the ass kissing of Vladimir Putin by Donald Trump, and so I'm providing the evidence.

• 1:29:39Patrick Bet-David?

  Oh, it's, you know, you know, it's interesting when you're saying that. This is, this is the, there, there is a lot of people I don't like, and I'll still give a reasonable opinion about what they're doing. There's a lot of people I don't like, that I'll still give my thoughts on them. I think, to me, I trust him in the situational room better than anybody else we have right now. I trust his ability to negotiate on behalf of America better than anybody we have in America right now. I, uh, uh, trust that the enemy hated him from day one, did everything in their power with the $35 million dossier that, you know, Hillary wrote that saying Russians were involved, and at the end of the day, we realized it was all fake. I, I, I've realized what Obama was doing, using the DOJ to spy on his, worse

• 1:30:23Patrick Bet-David?

  than Watergate. All of this stuff has happened. This is not like it's a, a myth. I, I understand they went after this guy because he exposed the hell out of everybody, and you... He's the first guy that will call out, say anything about you, your people, your family. He brought out, you know, women that Bill Clinton was with in a debate with Hillary in front of his wife. He's capable of doing anything to try to destroy you. That's his MO. You like it, you don't like it, that's how he is. But if I'm sitting here, why did Putin attack under Biden? He didn't attack under Trump. He waited till Biden was in. You think Putin wants a Trump presidency? You think Russia wants a Trump presidency?

• 1:31:08Patrick Bet-David?

  You think Iran wants a Trump presidency? Tell me which of those three prefer Kamala Harris or Trump? Anthony, you really think Russia, Iran, and China would prefer a Trump president over Kamala or Biden? You can't.

• 1:31:20Speaker 06

  You really want me to answer that?

• 1:31:21Patrick Bet-David?

  I know you're gonna say, go ahead, you're gonna say who?

• 1:31:23Speaker 06

  So.

• 1:31:26Speaker 06

  Okay, well, let me answer with a question. Has China, by our adversaries and our allies, been perceived as being a more stable trading partner than the United States under Donald Trump too? Yes or no?

• 1:31:41Patrick Bet-David?

  You didn't answer my question, though.

• 1:31:43Speaker 06

  Well, I did answer it, because China is doing way better with Trump as president. Way better as Trump's president. And if they want to take Taiwan, Trump has given them ample license to do that.

• 1:31:55Patrick Bet-David?

  Then why haven't they yet? Why haven't they?

• 1:31:57Speaker 06

  Well, they don't have the military capability to do it. But trust me, the minute that they have the military capability of doing that, they want to do that. Because you said something about Trump, which I do agree with, about legacy, and you also said it. And Xi's legacy is that he wants to be bigger than Mao. And that was Mao's legacy. He got the mainland, but he couldn't get the island of Formosa. And so Xi wants to go down in history as the guy that connected the two. But the Chinese are doing way better in the global economy.

• 1:32:24Patrick Bet-David?

  Are they really?

• 1:32:25Speaker 06

  They are.

• 1:32:25Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay.

• 1:32:26Speaker 06

  Mao had Chiang Kai-shek. Look at the math, Patrick, look at the math and look at the.

• 1:32:30Speaker 07

  But the tariffs, though.

• 1:32:31Patrick Bet-David?

  What happened to Panama? What happened to Panama?

• 1:32:35Speaker 06

  Guys, I'm in the markets all day, I'm running billions of dollars.

• 1:32:37Patrick Bet-David?

  What happened to Panama?

• 1:32:39Speaker 06

  What happened in Panama? You mean with the ports?

• 1:32:41Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, do you, do you prefer Panama being controlled by C K Hutchinson or it being here? You think, you think what's going on with Panama is a good thing for China?

• 1:32:50Speaker 06

  First of all, the Li Kaoxing family are, are clients of mine and I understand the relationship that they had there and I don't see that as Chinese nationalism like other people do. That is a Hong Kong family, that's a capitalist family that did every single thing that the United States wanted to do with those ports. Having said that, okay, that the fact that the president didn't want those guys there, I have absolutely no problem with it. I think BlackRock is, or sure, Black, BlackRock I think it is, is taking over those ports. I have no problem with that and I think that's part of the good things. I'll call balls and strikes on Trump and tell you what he's doing right and doing wrong.

• 1:33:28Patrick Bet-David?

  No, no, what I'm saying is, do you think?

• 1:33:29Speaker 06

  I think he did a great job in Venezuela, but I think he hurts us with tariffs on, tariffs off, tariffs on.

• 1:33:36Patrick Bet-David?

  You're saying?

• 1:33:36Speaker 06

  I said, I said in April of-

• 1:33:38Patrick Bet-David?

  Anthony, the fact that you're saying China, Iran, Russia would prefer, they're more afraid of Kamala or Biden over Trump.

• 1:33:46Speaker 06

  I didn't say they were more afraid of Biden or Kamala.

• 1:33:49Patrick Bet-David?

  Here's all you gotta think about, behind closed doors, behind closed doors.

• 1:33:51Speaker 06

  I didn't say that.

• 1:33:52Patrick Bet-David?

  When they're talking, Anthony.

• 1:33:53Speaker 06

  That they're doing better with him, with this sort of nonsense.

• 1:33:57Patrick Bet-David?

  Those are two different things. When they're talking, when they're talking, do you think a Xi, a Putin, or the leaders of Iran, do you think they prefer a Trump or a Kamala Biden? Who do you think they prefer to deal with?

• 1:34:10Speaker 06

  Well, I think Putin definitely prefers dealing with Trump because I think he has been less adversarial to Putin. So there, I think as it relates to the mullahs, they definitely don't want to deal with Trump because Trump has the conviction to put a hurt on them, which he is doing. And I think with China, I've made, I've made my economic case with China, when you're sending Mark Carney, Keir Starmer-

• 1:34:34Patrick Bet-David?

  Who would they prefer? Do you think China-

• 1:34:36Speaker 06

  They're doing better under Trump, Patrick.

• 1:34:38Patrick Bet-David?

  You still haven't answered my question, though.

• 1:34:39Speaker 06

  They would prefer Trump. They're doing better.

• 1:34:42Patrick Bet-David?

  There is no way-

• 1:34:42Speaker 06

  They are. The only ones, of those three, the only ones that doesn't prefer Trump are the mullahs and you-

• 1:34:47Patrick Bet-David?

  Let me ask you this question.

• 1:34:48Speaker 06

  I'm just telling you based on the economic facts.

• 1:34:50Patrick Bet-David?

  Do you think, do you think China, do you think China could have stopped and shut down the airports earlier to not release COVID to the world at a time that they were, they were being destroyed? You think, you think at that time, China could have prevented COVID? Now that we know it's coming from there, could they have prevented it?

• 1:35:07Speaker 06

  I do think that.

• 1:35:07Patrick Bet-David?

  Why didn't they? Do you think they released it intentionally?

• 1:35:11Speaker 06

  Well, I mean, you know, I do think that they released it intentionally.

• 1:35:15Patrick Bet-David?

  So why did they release it intentionally?

• 1:35:16Speaker 06

  To get rid of Trump, is that what you're saying?

• 1:35:18Patrick Bet-David?

  No, I want to know what you think. Why do you think they released it intentionally? Eighteen trillion dollars of economy.

• 1:35:23Speaker 06

  I mean, it's.

• 1:35:25Patrick Bet-David?

  Millions of lives, seven million people, I believe.

• 1:35:27Speaker 06

  It's very hard to know why.

• 1:35:30Patrick Bet-David?

  Let's speculate.

• 1:35:32Speaker 06

  You're saying, you're saying the superficial reason why was they were trying to get rid of Trump.

• 1:35:36Patrick Bet-David?

  Give me two or three reasons why you think.

• 1:35:38Speaker 06

  I think it was a lot deeper than that. I, I think that there are seven balkanized provinces in China. There are 90 million people that run the Chinese Communist Party and they were losing their grip on China. Lots more VPN usage, lots more people like in Iran that don't like the system and want more freedom. And by unleashing that, they were able to go massive repression on their people. And as you know, they were locked down in their area of the world for almost three years longer than us. So was another reason to dislodge Trump? Yes, probably another reason to dislodge Trump. I don't think they liked the trade deal that they did with Trump.

• 1:36:21Speaker 06

  And again, to be fair to the president, the president struck a very good trade deal with them for the US farmers. And Joe Biden, due to Joe Biden's weakness and the incompetence of that administration, I think you guys all know this, they didn't live up to the deal. Okay, so they had three or four years where they were supposed to buy certain amount of agricultural products from the United States and they didn't live up to it. So it's a mixed bag. I, I understand the point that you're making. But I'm making a little bit more subtle point where you can go down subject line by subject line and say they would prefer Trump, they would prefer Biden, they would prefer Trump. That's what I'm saying.

• 1:36:59Patrick Bet-David?

  There is no way.

• 1:37:00Speaker 06

  You, you think they unleashed it, unleashed it to get rid of Trump? And I'm saying that was one of the reasons.

• 1:37:05Patrick Bet-David?

  How was America, how was America doing right before that? How was America doing right before that? Right before they released it in December 20, whatever it was? How was America doing? How were we doing?

• 1:37:16Speaker 06

  That's an American-centric view. I think the leadership in China.

• 1:37:21Speaker 06

  Was more sent their view and decision making was more centralized to repressing China.

• 1:37:26Patrick Bet-David?

  What percentage of your investments are in China? What percentage of your investments are in China? What percent? So CK Hutchinson, who is a client of yours.

• 1:37:32Speaker 06

  I don't have any investments in China. I have, I have assets from mostly Hong Kong.

• 1:37:37Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay.

• 1:37:37Speaker 06

  Yeah, I don't have, I don't have, I don't have money. I don't have money in China.

• 1:37:40Patrick Bet-David?

  When you see what America was doing, Trump had an easy route to being reelected. He was gonna get reelected. There's no COVID, he gets reelected.

• 1:37:48Speaker 06

  I, I, I, okay, so I agree that he was getting reelected. And I would have bet that reelection. I'm just saying to you,

• 1:37:58Speaker 06

  your view, okay, which I'm not disagreeing with. I just think it's number three on the list of reasons that they.

• 1:38:05Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, they wanted to get rid of him. So if you wanted to get rid of the guy, let's make it number five, number six. Now, I don't care if it's top 20 list. You wanna get, if getting rid of somebody is a way of saying, we don't want that guy back. Okay, so.

• 1:38:16Speaker 06

  Now that he's back, he's helping them with this arbitrary capricious tariff strategy.

• 1:38:21Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't mind, listen, I don't mind the whole Supreme Court ruling that happened 6-3. And they have to go back and now they're forcing to pay out. Apparently they have to pay out even sooner the way the court's doing it. And they're going back and forth with that. I, I don't know, you know, I trust the Constitution. This, the Supreme Court became a very powerful thing for, for us to watch the last eight years. Him replacing three seats. And if it was the other way around, I don't know what Obama's Supreme Court ruling would have been if they tried to remove him from being on the Colorado ballots. And if one state would have agreed two, three, four, who knows what could have happened? If we had six, seven liberal Supreme Court justices there.

• 1:38:59Speaker 06

  They ruled with Trump on that.

• 1:39:01Patrick Bet-David?

  I know they did, but because it was a conservative majority Supreme Court.

• 1:39:04Speaker 06

  Look, I mean, a conservative court ruled with Obama on medic, on the Obamacare.

• 1:39:10Patrick Bet-David?

  They did, and a conservative ruled against Trump on tariffs. So the part, what I'm saying is, I trust the Constitution because of Supreme Court. But the Supreme Court here, conservatives will typically more side, you know, with their values, liberal Supreme Courts will typically side with their political party much more than conservatives will. Draw the line and go through it.

• 1:39:32Speaker 06

  That has definitely been the case.

• 1:39:33Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 1:39:33Speaker 06

  The decisions over the last ten.

• 1:39:34Patrick Bet-David?

  So, so to me, I, I realize Trump's a disruptor. I realize if we wanted something to happen to completely dismantle. And by, by the way, you know, I'm curious to go here, Tom. I'll, I'll go to this one.

• 1:39:45Speaker 06

  Can we go back to one thing though, if you don't mind? So you guys collectively, there's four people here. If we put it to a vote, I'm the only one that thinks that Trump kisses Putin's ass. I'm the only one here? Yeah, definitely. So you, you don't, and you don't think he kisses Putin's ass?

• 1:39:58Tom Ellsworth?

  No, I don't think he does. Is he deferential to him?

• 1:40:01Speaker 06

  And you don't?

• 1:40:01Patrick Bet-David?

  Absolutely not. I, I, I think.

• 1:40:03Speaker 06

  So it's three to one.

• 1:40:04Patrick Bet-David?

  I, I think.

• 1:40:05Speaker 06

  He shook his hand.

• 1:40:05Patrick Bet-David?

  I think, I think it's the following. Listen, you think the audience is happy that I have you right now on the podcast? What do you think?

• 1:40:12Speaker 06

  I'll be getting some negative reaction because they love Trump.

• 1:40:14Patrick Bet-David?

  No, but, but here, here's, what I'm trying to tell you is, I don't care if the audience is not happy that I have you. I want to have the conversation with somebody that maybe has a different view. I want to have that conversation, right? I don't mind it. So you, there, there's a part where the audience is going to be like, I can't believe you had him on. I can't believe you had Weiner on. I can't believe you had Cuomo on. I can't believe.

• 1:40:34Speaker 06

  Well, that's what makes a good podcast, though. They have, have a.

• 1:40:37Patrick Bet-David?

  I want to talk to everybody. I want to talk to everybody. I want to talk to people and see how the conversations will go, even if it's differing. No, for me, when you sit there and think about what he's doing, he works the room. He's the best politician we've had in our generation. He's a negotiator. He's tough. He's strong. He's unpredictable and predictable in the most important ways that we need today. So for me, I like that. I trust that part of it. You know, there, there's an element of certain guys that come out of startups. You know how there's wartime leaders and there's peacetime leaders and there's startup CEO founders? And then there's, you know, corporate CEOs. You ever want to see how startup CEOs don't typically go take that big corporate job?

• 1:41:22Patrick Bet-David?

  And corporate job guys, the big CEOs typically don't show up during the startup phase? Why? They, they're not used to the chaos that much. You know, you, I, I don't know if you saw the new contract they just gave to the new CEO of Google. Did you see the number? Six hundred and thirty-nine million dollars or six hundred and forty-nine million dollar payday? He's not the founder, he's the CEO. He's gonna get paid a few billion dollars over the next few years and by the way 692 good for him. Trump is a founder startup chaos, you know, being inside the tornado, that's his comfort zone. That's not everybody. To be able to handle all of this at the same time and still come up to the State of the Union and drop the message as if it's the greatest time to be an American.

• 1:42:04Patrick Bet-David?

  Three days after Supreme Court ruled against you and some of them are sitting right in front of you. And three days after you know you're gonna attack Iran and nobody knows. Nobody in America can do that today. That's what makes him unique and that's what drives his opponents insane. Because they know he's capable of doing that.

• 1:42:20Speaker 06

  Why do you think his approval numbers then are so low?

• 1:42:23Patrick Bet-David?

  Amongst who? Amongst Republicans?

• 1:42:25Speaker 06

  No, if you look at, no, he's very high among the Republicans.

• 1:42:28Patrick Bet-David?

  And that's what matters to him. That's his base. You think it's gonna, by the way, voter ID. Go to voter ID. What did CNN show with voter ID? All this stuff you see that blacks and you know, uh, uh, uh, what do you call it? Then black people can't vote, black people can't do this, black people can't do that, like all these stuff that, uh, Rob, if you want to show this real quick, I just have this on my phone. Not this clip, if you can show up this picture. So this is what everyone's saying about voting. Chuck Schumer said blacks aren't capable of getting IDs. Okay, Hokel, blacks don't know what a computer is. Newsom, I can't read, I'm just like you black people. Okay?

• 1:43:11Patrick Bet-David?

  Biden, you ain't black unless you vote for me. That's the opposite. That's the Democratic Party. And you know what they're doing this fear porn of voter ID? They believe illegal immigrant Mexicans or others that are coming from South and Central America. They believe they're capable of getting an ID, but they don't think black people are capable of getting an ID. And in the interim, CNN comes out with a poll showing what? The majority of Americans are with him on voter ID, majority of blacks.

• 1:43:41Speaker 06

  You don't have to convince me on that issue. I think the, I think the historical issue there, this is where the Democrats are making a mistake, is that when blacks were voting after the Voting Rights Act, and I'm talking about the one that was passed after the Civil War, they got their IDs, they went to their houses, and the KKK set fire to the houses and lynched the fathers. Okay, that happened 150 years ago. I don't think people should be able to go into the voting booth without an ID. So I'm for the voter.

• 1:44:12Patrick Bet-David?

  No, what I'm saying is.

• 1:44:13Speaker 06

  You know, I remember, I'm a lifelong Republican. There's stuff about Trump I like.

• 1:44:17Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 1:44:18Speaker 06

  And there's stuff about Trump I dislike.

• 1:44:19Patrick Bet-David?

  But I think he's crushing it, in my opinion. I think he's doing great.

• 1:44:22Speaker 06

  Okay.

• 1:44:23Patrick Bet-David?

  And I think he's, again, I could be wrong, and when I am, we'll sit there and we'll talk about it. I think he's doing great.

• 1:44:29Speaker 06

  Some of the content is great. I think some of the style is really hurting the country.

• 1:44:32Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't disagree. By the way, I don't think this, disagree that his style hasn't hurt it for nine years I was in, that he was in. I don't think, you know, the whatever, five and a half years that he's been in. Uh, but to me, you can't get one without the other. Okay, you can't. You see what Rubio is doing right now. And by the way, there's, this is the part I'd like to go to, because I'm curious to know what you'll say about this. We talked about this last week, but the story eventually came out, and Trump talked about it. Trump says that he and J.D. Vance have slightly, uh, different views on attacking Iran. Did you see this story that came out?

• 1:45:06Speaker 06

  Yeah, no, I talked a lot about it.

• 1:45:07Patrick Bet-David?

  You wanna, you wanna, uh, play this clip, Rob? Go for it.

• 1:45:11Speaker 04

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• 1:45:46Speaker 04

  I don't think so, no. No, we get along very well on this. He was, uh, I would say philosophically, a little bit different than me. I think he was, uh...

• 1:45:58Speaker 06

  Maybe less enthusiastic about going, but he was quite enthusiastic. But I felt it was something we had to do. I didn't feel we had a choice. If we didn't do it, they would have done it to us. I felt, based on the negotiations that were being had by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and Marco and Pete and everybody was involved, I felt that they were gonna, that they were looking to tap us along before they hit, and I thought they were gonna hit. And if they hit us first, that would have been a very bad thing.

• 1:46:29Patrick Bet-David?

  How different you think they are, the two, J.D. and Trump, on this issue, specific Iran?

• 1:46:34Tom Ellsworth?

  I, I think they were meaningfully different. I think it was black and white, no. But I, I think they were more different than Trump is letting on. But Trump's not, you know, gonna go up and stand there, and his personality is not that he's going to promote or give credence to, you know, controversy on that level. He's just gonna say, you know, he's, was less enthusiastic, but he was enthusiastic, but he was less enthusiastic. I think when Trump says a little like that, sometimes Trump is saying a lot. And I just look at, where's J.D. Vance at the briefings? Where's J.D. Vance in photographs of the Situation Room? Where's J.D. Vance been?

• 1:47:18Tom Ellsworth?

  He's kind of been, you know, preparing to kind of go to war with Gavin Newsom, sorry to use the word, on, on fraud. Like, he's gonna be the fraud czar and go on that. And so I've seen that, and then we've all seen how Rubio has conducted himself. Not ahead of the president, very, very clear, good press conferences, good clarity, that I think gives, gives confidence. You may see things differently between the lines, because I haven't worked with them, you have, but that's kind of my take on Vance. It's like, where is Vance?

• 1:47:50Patrick Bet-David?

  Where do you stand? Please.

• 1:47:53Speaker 06

  He doesn't want those guys taking any credit for his success, number one. Number two, I said at the beginning of the term, I said that he's gonna put Vance in the wood chipper like in the movie Fargo, and Vance is halfway through the wood chipper.

• 1:48:09Tom Ellsworth?

  Is that your partner in the wood chipper?

• 1:48:13Speaker 06

  Yeah, remember? Yeah, he's putting him in the wood chipper right now because, a couple of things, he made the decision to pick Vance three days after he was traumatized by a near assassination. And by the way, whatever you think I think of President Trump, thank God he was not assassinated, okay? And I said, picking Vance that quickly, I think is gonna cause a problem because he was under the gun there. And I think that he was offered a lot of money into the campaign and things like that that I think influenced him.

• 1:48:44Tom Ellsworth?

  You read it pretty well. Who did you think was gonna be the choice?

• 1:48:48Speaker 06

  I thought Rubio was gonna be the choice.

• 1:48:49Tom Ellsworth?

  Really?

• 1:48:50Speaker 06

  Yeah, because Susie Wiles loves Rubio. Remember, they worked together very well in Florida. You gotta remember, I've been in this party for 30 years. Susie Wiles was tight with Jeb Bush. She made Ron DeSantis. I mean, they're fighting now because DeSantis sort of dispatched her, okay, which is why she ended up with Trump. But she's very tight with Rubio, and he was the pick for Secretary of State as a consolation in not getting the vice presidency. It's a better job, by the way, because Secretary of State's a better job. But let me just finish this thought pattern. Two more things. They ran as peace candidates. Go look at the brochures, go look at the, you know, the stuff on the internet. And they ran as non-interventionalists. Am I making this up?

• 1:49:35Speaker 06

  No war. And they ran on no more forever wars and things like that. And where Vance wants to differentiate himself, because he leaked this to CBS News, I can show it to you, that he disagreed with Trump on the war. Okay, because he's trying to get his footing for 2028. Okay, and he did, he did leak it. Okay? So he's...

• 1:49:54Tom Ellsworth?

  So you're saying Vance leaked to CBS about this?

• 1:49:55Speaker 06

  He did, I can show you the...

• 1:49:56Tom Ellsworth?

  I'm not doubting it, I'm just repeating what you said.

• 1:49:58Speaker 06

  Because the actual article said, officials working very closely... Vance said that he did not want to do this. Moreover, Vance was nowhere on Venezuela, right? He wasn't in the situation room like Marco Rubio. He was nowhere on this. I mean, he made up some like fake situation room for himself to sit in while everybody that was around the president making the decisions were in Mar-a-Lago. So Vance, whether you guys like it or not, in my opinion, is on the outs. Rubio is on the ins with Trump for now, but may not be forever because that's what happens in Trump world. You know, who was on the ins with Trump and was like this with Trump? Mike Pompeo, like this.

• 1:50:42Speaker 06

  And Mike made a decision not to run in 2024 because he didn't want to be on the outs with Trump. Is he on the outs with Trump now? He is. Okay, and that's what happens in Trump world. You go in and you go out unless your last name is Trump or you're Kushner that's related to the Trump family, you can go in with Trump or out with Trump very quickly.

• 1:51:02Patrick Bet-David?

  I think they've taken a different approach with this. I'm going to go to the business. They've taken a different approach at the same timeline.

• 1:51:09Speaker 06

  You think Vance is on the ins with Trump?

• 1:51:10Patrick Bet-David?

  No, no, no, no, no way.

• 1:51:13Speaker 07

  Weird thing Vance, first thing Vance said was we need to bomb Iran. He's like, hey, my name's JD Vance, we need to bomb Iran. So that's why I think this is where Trump never really spoke about. Remember that Vance, that was like the first thing he said when he became vice.

• 1:51:23Patrick Bet-David?

  He wasn't comfortable with it. That's not him though. Yeah, and by the way, behind closed doors, there's a community that's protecting JD because they want JD to go. Tech is on JD's side and the other side is going to be with Rubio. I just think Rubio's, I want to go to business. I want to go to business, Tom.

• 1:51:38Speaker 06

  And my external feelings and gut was aligned with you and you've kind of confirmed.

• 1:51:42Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, so let me go to business. Okay, can you go to consumer price index rose 2.4% annually in February as expected. That stat, at the same time, we have while that's going on, which is great news. You know, you have the other report that comes in within a week apart, three days apart. U.S. economy shed 92,000 jobs in February, well below expectations. So 2.4%, Anthony, what does that mean? Rob, is this the clip? Well, we know what it is. He's just given the report, right? What are your thoughts on this?

• 1:52:11Speaker 06

  Well, I mean, you have to tell me how the war is going to end. My thoughts on this is the near-term numbers are not going to be that big of a deal. It's the trend numbers. The trend numbers, I think rates should have been cut six months ago. I could make that whole case for you. I want to bore you with it. But you're probably 50 to 100 basis points too high relative to where the statistics are. And I would tell, I would point everybody to trueflation.com, which I think is a much better measurement of overall inflation in the United States. It's at 0.92%, something like that. So the Fed has lots of room to cut. I hate to say this about Jerome Powell, but I think he's been influenced by the fight that he's in with Donald Trump. And I think he's trying to assert Fed independence relative to that.

• 1:52:56Speaker 06

  And he should have cut the rates earlier. So that 2.4 number and the 92, if you look at them in isolation, you say, oh shit, we're heading for stagflation. I don't believe we're heading for stagflation because I think the war is going to settle out, the oil prices are going to come down, and I think the trend line for the economy is still generally good.

• 1:53:14Patrick Bet-David?

  Tom?

• 1:53:15Tom Ellsworth?

  So job reports is like this parlor game of who's telling the truth. It's like listening to China talk about their own inflation stats and their own census stats, right? You just, you have a hard time believing China on that. And unfortunately, the jobs reports has been something that a number comes out, everybody says it's political, one side's leaning this way, one side's leaning that way, and 30 days later, they revise it. Oh, so, and then they revise it again. For instance, December, Pat, let me step back to December. December's report was revised down by 65,000 in the same report from a gain of 48,000, which seemed to match all of the seasonal workers and everything that the Amazons and

• 1:53:59Tom Ellsworth?

  everything were doing in seasonal gig work, from gaining 48,000 to, wait, wait, wait, in December, we actually lost 70,000. 17,000 jobs in January. No, no, we didn't have 130,000 jobs. It was closer to 120,000 jobs. And so now we have these job loss expectations. What will so there is one simple truth, right? We need and we don't have yet the manufacturing machine kicking in. It takes time to build the factories. It takes time to build the infrastructure. That is not hit yet. So those jobs are not coming. And we have seen a tremendous amount of layoffs just in the last 30 days from corporate America. But at the same time, we

• 1:54:40Tom Ellsworth?

  have CEOs saying, yeah, I kind of blamed it on AI, but we weren't completely sure that it was AI and maybe it wasn't. We've seen guys backpedaling. So this report is not good. It shows slowing job growth in the US and that they're backing up and correcting the last two months downward. That's not good. Even if you assume this report is only 50% correct, directionally, it's not good for jobs. Is it AI? Is it seasonal? Maybe, maybe. But we also are waiting for investment and manufacturing jobs to kick in because trillions of dollars have been committed, US and internationally. But those, those facilities, those factories haven't been built yet.

• 1:55:25Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah. But by the way, did you see the unusual whales? Rob, can you post this tweet? I'm curious what you guys think, whether there's an impact of this going on. Because they posted per Fortune magazine that thousands of CEOs admitted AI had no impact on employment or productivity. And it got millions of views. Your thoughts?

• 1:55:47Tom Ellsworth?

  And what happens to your stock if you say, I'm increasing productivity. I have a little layoff because of AI and I'm going to give you

• 1:55:54Patrick Bet-David?

  Stock explodes.

• 1:55:54Tom Ellsworth?

  That's right. I'm going to give you another three cents a share.

• 1:55:57Speaker 06

  I think that statement, Patrick, is very similar to statements that we witnessed during Web 1, when people were talking about innovation related to the Internet. We're just not on-boarded yet 100%. I don't think anybody's gonna be making that statement in five years.

• 1:56:13Speaker 07

  Yeah, the implementation of it, that's gonna be a big industry, is companies that are able to help companies implement AI the best way. But, I mean, inflation thing, biggest gaslighting ever. I mean, the fact that we, I mean, I'll say Trump is doing a good job in bringing it down in the right direction, but for us to celebrate a 2.5 CPI gaslighting, I mean, that number, like inflation's not going down until that number's negative. Now, tell me if you disagree, but the fact that it's 2.5% means it just went up 2.5% from the year prior, right? So, you know, this goes back to the Pokemon card thing. That's why limited assets are gonna be valuable and more valuable every year because that means there's 2.5% more money added to the economy. So it means your savings account was devalued

• 1:56:55Speaker 07

  by 2.5%. So that happens every single year. When they say the CPI was 2% or 3% or 4%, that's the amount of value you're losing off your money.

• 1:57:02Speaker 06

  Okay, but let's explain this, because this is very important for viewers and listeners. Milton Friedman, the Nobel Prize-winning economist, what did he say? He said that deficit spending is unfunded tax liability. And you're gonna pay the man one way or another. Our politicians have decided to pay it through the most pernicious and regressive way to pay it, and that is through the tax of inflation.

• 1:57:26Speaker 07

  Yep.

• 1:57:26Speaker 06

  Okay, rather than just saying, hey, this is what we're gonna pay for the military and our social services, this is what you owe, they're afraid to do that, so they're taking it from your savings account. And one of the things that I really don't like about it, Patrick, is that the working poor don't understand it 100%. You know, my parents bought their house for $16,000. It's worth $780,000 on Zillow, but if you priced it in gold, Patrick, the house was purchased for 450 ounces of gold in 1962, but it's worth only 250 ounces of gold today. Okay, based on where the price of gold is. So I try to tell my folks, you guys think you made a killing on it, but the inflation...

• 1:58:09Speaker 06

  Is making you think that. And so this is a trick that we do to poor people. They think they have more money because $100,000 has $10,000 worth of purchasing power from 1971. But they now think they have more money because they're looking at $100,000 in their bank account. So this is really bothers me, which is why you're right. Cards like that, Mickey Mantle, Bitcoin will go up primarily because of what we're doing here in terms of money printing. But but go look at trueflation.com. The inflation numbers in the United States are not as high as that CPI is suggesting.

• 1:58:43Speaker 07

  I'm surprised by that because it felt like it was going up this year, but that's just a feeling.

• 1:58:50Speaker 06

  We had a nine, 10% move during the Biden thing. If you want to attack Biden, okay, and they were out of control with the way they handled the economy. But they haven't gone up that much relative to that move. That's why we're all feeling it because the egg prices are still very expensive. They didn't go down. They're just not going up as fast as that number is saying. Just go look at trueflation.com. They aggregate from the entire country. They don't do they don't do it in this old style methodology that the government does.

• 1:59:20Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, long before the deficits of today, I was an adjunct professor in MBA program. And I said it then, I'll say it now. If you don't believe what you're hearing, Google this phrase. Government long term debt inflate their way out.

• 1:59:35Speaker 06

  100%.

• 1:59:35Tom Ellsworth?

  Just just Google that phrase. I was talking to Pepperdine and to Biola 15 years. I told people to search for that phrase and you will see the story of how the governments can actually eradicate the debt. It's called inflate their way out.

• 1:59:53Speaker 06

  Well, that's why that's why.

• 1:59:55Tom Ellsworth?

  Thank you for the confirmation.

• 1:59:55Speaker 06

  That's why fiat currencies don't last. Can we go back to that trueflation thing because I want to show people that? The US dollar has lost 28.25% of its value since January 2020. Everybody see that, ladies and gentlemen?

• 2:00:10Speaker 07

  Yep.

• 2:00:10Speaker 06

  So if you had $10,000 in your savings account, you now have $7,200 worth of purchasing power. Does everybody understand that? And this is this is a malpractice by both parties, ladies and gentlemen. Okay, you can like Trump or dislike Trump. Both parties are doing a number on you.

• 2:00:30Patrick Bet-David?

  And by the way, if it says 28.2, that means $100 in 2020 is now worth 70.

• 2:00:38Patrick Bet-David?

  $1.75, right? But the question is this.

• 2:00:41Speaker 06

  Correct, six years later.

• 2:00:42Patrick Bet-David?

  What do I have to do to have maintained?

• 2:00:46Speaker 06

  Stock.

• 2:00:47Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't even think it's 4%. Because even 4%, what would the number be to catch up with?

• 2:00:54Speaker 06

  You're good if you're in the S and P.

• 2:00:56Patrick Bet-David?

  No, no, you're for sure good if you're in the S and P.

• 2:00:58Speaker 06

  Probably compounding 6%, 7%. I'm just doing the math off the top of my head. But most people can't do that, Patrick. And most people are living, you know, paycheck to paycheck. The other, the other big problem in the country is if you want to own a house and the median price for a house according to Realtor.com is $380,000 and you don't want to be house rich and cash poor, you got to make like $170,000. And the median income in the country, $84,000. So this is why people are angry. And this is why people are choosing populism and people like Mondani, because they really feel left out of the system.

• 2:01:37Patrick Bet-David?

  How do you feel about Mondani? You're in New York. What do you think about what he's doing?

• 2:01:41Speaker 06

  Well, I will say this, okay? I'm impressed with the relationship that he's trying to build with Trump. I'm also impressed with the relationship that he has with the cops. You know, he's, he kept Commissioner Tish and he's trying to give them exactly what they want to maintain law and order in the city. And, you know, listen, I didn't vote for him. It wasn't my choice. Chris's brother was my choice. I grew up with Chris and Andrew. And again, I'm a Republican, so I would have chose a Republican, but there was no chance for a Republican in that city. Okay, so, so I went with Andrew. But I will say this, it feels like he's running the city more moderately than he campaigned on.

• 2:02:25Speaker 06

  It's only a couple of months, Patrick, but that would be very good for the city. Because if he goes in that direction, it'll be devastation for the city.

• 2:02:33Patrick Bet-David?

  Let's do a last couple of stories here with five minutes we got left. Bitcoin prices rise. Why oil could dictate what happens next for cryptos? What do you think is going to happen with Bitcoin during cryptos during this volatility? Is that Anthony Pompliano?

• 2:02:49Speaker 06

  Yes.

• 2:02:49Patrick Bet-David?

  Play the, play the clip. All right, so let's put it all together. We've got a war in Iran. We've got a spike. For now, eight day spike in energy prices. We've got AI disruption concerns. We've got cracks. She's just asking questions. And we have a weaker jobs report. How do you invest right now? Buy Bitcoin. I got it. That's what it is. Where are you at with it, Anthony?

• 2:03:11Speaker 06

  Well, listen, it's my largest position by far. I've added to the position recently in the correction. I do believe that Bitcoin is going to be a big operating layer like your former guest, Michael Saylor, who wrote the foreword to my book about Bitcoin. And I'll just say two quick things. When we move into agentic AI and a computer is not, for regulatory reasons, able to open up a bank account somewhere, guess what the computer is going to do? It's going to figure out a way to trade on the blockchain and use things like Bitcoin. And so don't underestimate the power of this. Moreover, in a decentralized society, where we're losing our trust in fiat currencies, I think Bitcoin as a store of value or a potential layer

• 2:03:57Speaker 06

  of value that we transact with is going higher. And it's a very limited supply. And forget about you and me. I'm talking about kids that are my kids' ages. As they go 10 years from now, 20 years from now, they start running the big money. This is going to be a very big asset. So is it a $35 trillion asset like gold, trading at 1.5 trillion right now? I believe it is. Could it take 15 years to get there? Probably.

• 2:04:23Patrick Bet-David?

  35? So you think it can 20x where it's at right now?

• 2:04:26Speaker 06

  I do. I think it's going to be the market capitalization of gold, but I think it's going to take 15 years to get there. It's not going to happen overnight.

• 2:04:33Patrick Bet-David?

  Right. Right. You see Michael Saylor and them, they just bought another 1.3 billion? I don't know what the number was.

• 2:04:38Speaker 06

  1.3 billion. He's single-handedly propping up Bitcoin during this bear market. And he's set up now to buy, you know, another 10 to 20,000 Bitcoin at a clip every quarter. He's buying more than the mined supply of Bitcoin right now. Okay? So 450 Bitcoins are coming out of the network and Michael's buying roughly about 600 a day. Does he give you a sense for what he's doing?

• 2:05:02Patrick Bet-David?

  They gotta do blood work on this guy. They gotta do blood work on this guy to see. Ice cold or you know, where is it at? I mean, is there, is there a, is he that ice cold?

• 2:05:11Speaker 06

  You know, I watched your interview with him. I guess the only thing I would, not to overly simplify the interview, but Michael is in the software business and Michael tried to compete against Microsoft and lost. And he now sees this as the operating software for the future of money. And so he didn't make it, but he wants to own it because he thinks that's where the future is going.

• 2:05:30Patrick Bet-David?

  Let me get to this next one here. Anthropic sues Trump administration over Pentagon blacklist. Rob, I think you got a clip on this one as well, and we'll wrap up with the story Anthropic. Um, let me see, what page is it on? Rob, you got a, you got a clip on this. Let me read this to you. Page 27. Here we go. So Anthropic sued Trump administration on Monday seeking to reverse blacklisting by the Pentagon that declared the AI company a supply chain risk. Is that the clip? How long is it, Rob? Does it get right into it?

• 2:06:02Speaker 06

  Yes.

• 2:06:03Patrick Bet-David?

  Go for it.

• 2:06:04Speaker 02

  Artificial intelligence firm Anthropic sued the US government on Monday, trying to block the Pentagon from placing it on a national security blacklist. The lawsuit escalates Anthropic's high stakes battle with the Defense Department over the uses and limits of AI in military technology. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth designated Anthropic a national security supply chain risk last week. That came after the startup refused to remove guardrails against using its AI for autonomous weapons or domestic surveillance. Anthropic said in its lawsuit that the designation was unlawful and violated the company's freedom of speech. The filing in federal court in California asked a judge to undo the designation

• 2:06:47Speaker 02

  and block federal agencies from enforcing it. The designation poses a big threat to Anthropic's business with the government and could limit the use of a technology that a source said was currently being used for military operations in Iran. President Donald Trump has also directed the government to stop working with Anthropic, whose financial backers include Alphabet's Google and Amazon.com. Trump and Hegseth said there would be a six month phase out. Anthropic said even the best AI models were not reliable enough for fully autonomous weapons and that using them for that purpose-

• 2:07:20Patrick Bet-David?

  would be dangerous. You can pause it right there. You can pause it right there. Anthony, what's happening here?

• 2:07:27Speaker 06

  Well, listen, you know, this is again, you guys are gonna be mad at me, but I like process because process made your family and my family rich. When you're decentralized at the top and you don't have over autonomy and you have process, then people can be aspirational. When it's too concentrated, then people think the system is rigged. And so I think they overly bullied Anthropic here. And they could have gotten to a deal with Anthropic, but this is that overzeallessness that goes on sometimes when people are built up with a lot of power. And I think they're gonna lose, they've lost the tariff case. If you'd asked me that six months ago, said they're gonna lose the tariff case. They're gonna lose this case in court. And if I was advising President Trump, and I'm not Pete Hexeth,

• 2:08:11Speaker 06

  but if I was advising President Trump, I'd say, sir, we're gonna lose this case in court. I don't want to lose another case on behalf of the Trump administration. They have unbelievable technology. Before the show started, I asked these gentlemen here if they use Claude. They all said that they did, and they like it better than ChatGPT. And I don't want the government and the Department of War to lose the resource of Claude. So cut a deal and drop the case. That's my recommendation. But if they don't, they're gonna lose the case.

• 2:08:40Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, first of all, let's, let's talk about the scale. This is a $200 million contract, which the Pentagon spends more than that just in the last 10 syllables I uttered.

• 2:08:55Tom Ellsworth?

  And that's all this was, $200 million IT services contract. And they said, but we don't want you to use on domestic surveillance. Meanwhile, over at the NSA, they kind of already are, right? There's things that are happening that they're already, already, already happening.

• 2:09:10Speaker 06

  Different bucket, though.

• 2:09:11Tom Ellsworth?

  Sure.

• 2:09:12Speaker 06

  No one's pushing back about that.

• 2:09:13Tom Ellsworth?

  No one's pushing back about that.

• 2:09:14Speaker 06

  We're talking about CIA inside the United States versus the FBI, Department of Defense inside the United States versus the NSA.

• 2:09:21Tom Ellsworth?

  Yep. No, no, but that's exactly right. So one part of the argument, I think, is kind of lunacy. Do we not think that there's three-letter agencies that are using these new tools as part of domestic surveillance, tracking down terrorists and, you know, expanding the, the oversight? Yes, I do. And I don't think anybody in rational argument could say it's not. To be arguing publicly about a $200 million contract with the Department of Defense and ending up in a lawsuit position that I agree with you, the administration will lose, I don't think that's smart. I think you gotta come back and say, sir, this is a $200 million contract. NSA is already, FBI are already doing stuff and more, with and without warrants. You know, you want to talk about no-knock warrants with the FBI?

• 2:10:06Tom Ellsworth?

  That's nothing compared to what they're doing with tools like this. I think this was a dumb fight to have spilled over in public.

• 2:10:13Speaker 07

  Yeah, Claude is by far the best AI out there. But this makes me think of what happened with MySpace because if I'm not mistaken, I think MySpace was asked to do a similar thing. They said no. And then CIA, allegedly CIA-backed Facebook, crushes MySpace, MySpace disappears forever. So it tends to not go so well for companies that start off really successful, the government's interested in. If they don't play ball with the government, it tends to not go so well. So yeah, I disagree with how Trump and the administration's handling this one. I mean, you know, like if we had Biden as president, he was trying to do this with a company like Claude, we'd be outraged by it. So I mean, I don't like the nature of spying on citizens. I could get on board with the military usage of it, but not the

• 2:10:57Speaker 07

  domestic surveillance because I'm not a Patriot Act guy.

• 2:11:00Speaker 06

  Yeah, we're all agreeing again, Patrick.

• 2:11:03Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah. This is a problem. We're all agreeing, guys. Some kind of a fight. By the way, ChatGPT right now, weekly users, 900 million, 2.5 billion prompts per day, 50 million paid subscribers, 92% of Fortune 500 companies as of right now use them, and 2025 market share, ChatGPT had 87%. Right now, it's 68% and declining.

• 2:11:29Speaker 06

  Wow.

• 2:11:30Patrick Bet-David?

  Which is what's naturally supposed to be happening.

• 2:11:32Speaker 06

  Because one is Yahoo and the other's Google.

• 2:11:34Patrick Bet-David?

  Right. And the other products... Everybody I talk to now, like, no, I don't use chat. No, I moved to perplex. No, I moved to, it allows you to use all of them. This one has access to all of them. I'm using Claude, I'm using this. And Tom, you know, typically, Tom, you know, normally mentions Kim. The female name he uses the most in Tom's life is Kim. It's his wife's name. But there's a new girl in town. Her name is Courtney and it's his Claude assistant. And everybody at the office, and I'm not even kidding with you. Everybody at the office walks around saying, who the hell is this Courtney girl? We've never met her and that's his assistant. Tom, how effective is Courtney for you?

• 2:12:15Tom Ellsworth?

  So Courtney was a name that I gave to a replicant that I built on, on the OpenClaw platform. OpenClaw started out as Claudebot in October of last year. Then the engineers got a letter that said that I'm anthropic, didn't like them using the word Claude. So they said, okay, they changed it to maltbot because lobsters shed their skins called molting, which shows you why engineering should never be allowed near marketing. And then they subsequently changed it to OpenClaw and kept their mascot. So this is the origin of OpenClaw started last year. So I was reading about this last year and in Aspen is when I sat down and said, okay, I'm, I'm going to do this.

• 2:12:59Tom Ellsworth?

  So I stood up an Amazon EC2 instance with Ubuntu Linux, loaded OpenClaw on it and started teaching it skills to get done what Jason Calcanis calls chores. So I said, can I get certain chores done and get them done faster so that I can make decisions, do the mental work? And that's what's going on. It does charts and it cranks out charts for me that are easy to see. So I don't have to do that with the numbers. Then I go and make the decisions in my daily work. But I'll tell you, I'm using it at probably 15% of its capability. Cause if you look around out there, this is the, this is where agentic AI, you know,

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• 2:14:12Tom Ellsworth?

  Agents, and to get it to talk to me, I used Telegram to talk to it and I used Open Labs to choose a voice. So I chose this British voice that they call the money penny voice because she was the one that was always helping MI6 and James Bond and I named it Courtney.

• 2:14:30Patrick Bet-David?

  I like it.

• 2:14:31Tom Ellsworth?

  And you know, it gets a lot of things done.

• 2:14:34Patrick Bet-David?

  Kim is okay with it. Kim is okay with it.

• 2:14:36Speaker 06

  Does it read your emails?

• 2:14:37Tom Ellsworth?

  It can read the email if I want it to. I'm not, I'm being very careful in security because also what happens when open clog gets a bug and then it goes into your email, reads a bunch of stuff and you're a stockbroker and now a bunch of information, insider information, or it just decides to send random stuff out.

• 2:14:54Patrick Bet-David?

  Security BD Rob, they're going to have a lot of security that's going to go through it, but last thing to ask you.

• 2:14:59Tom Ellsworth?

  Anti-virus security needed viruses.

• 2:15:01Patrick Bet-David?

  Right. Anthony, last thing, your son bought Logan Paul's Pokemon card for 16 and a half million dollars, 16 plus million dollars. And he said he wants to buy a T-Rex. He wants, is this the clip Rob of what he wants to do? Go ahead, Rob. My ambitions for the card is just a small story.

• 2:15:18Speaker 06

  That's my other son next one.

• 2:15:19Patrick Bet-David?

  The real story is I'm on a planetary treasure hunt right now and I'm on a quest to buy a T-Rex dinosaur fossil that's on my list. I'm going to buy the Declaration of Independence, maybe from you. We'll find out.

• 2:15:34Speaker 01

  Oh, this is crazy. And I'm not stopping there. This was only the beginning.

• 2:15:37Patrick Bet-David?

  Yep.

• 2:15:38Speaker 01

  This is my brother, Tony Mucci. He's a, he's a, he's a film director. And we have been fans of Pokemon since we were kids. Oh, my God. This was the right way to start the treasure hunt. You're just starting? I just started it. Bro. Bro, that is so epic.

• 2:15:53Patrick Bet-David?

  The treasure hunter. First of all, how's it feel your sons are doing deals like this?

• 2:15:58Speaker 06

  Well, first of all, I'm very proud of both of them. I would, you know, I probably sound like a brat. My, my oldest son went to Stanford Business School. He went to tough Stanford Business School. Worked at Google for Eric Schmidt. He worked at Tesla. And he built his own venture capital firm. Raised a ton of money for himself, running, you know, several hundred million dollars at Solari Capital. And he is creating. A proponent of what you were saying earlier, he's looking for assets that will go up in a debasement trade. And so this would be physical assets and that would include things like collectibles. And so I think there will be hopefully a T-Rex in there. There'll be a Declaration of Independence. There'll be other baseball cards, other

• 2:16:42Speaker 06

  Pokemon collectibles, but I think he wanted to make a statement. And Patrick, you know, marketing about as well as anybody. And I'll send this to you because I did an analysis for him. The impressions on Instagram, the fact that we're talking about this on your incredibly successful show. And the impressions that he got across social media and 40 different news outlets around the world. It was like buying the Super Bowl twice. Okay, so buying every advertisement on the Super Bowl twice. And so it's $10 million for 30 seconds to get your story out on Super Bowl Sunday. And this was 16 and a half million dollars. I think he's got his story out in most places.

• 2:17:21Patrick Bet-David?

  Steel, steel.

• 2:17:22Speaker 06

  So I'm very proud of him. I thought it was brilliantly executed by him.

• 2:17:26Patrick Bet-David?

  What, what start did you give them? When they got started and they came said, Dad, can you give us some money to get started? What was that conversation like?

• 2:17:31Speaker 06

  Well, I spoil the shit out of my kids. They probably don't like me saying that because I live by Mel Brooks's adage. Relax, none of us are getting out of here alive, Patrick. And so my attitude is, I didn't have any money growing up. I have a little bit of money now. Anything I can do to help bolster my kids. It's their lives and I'm not taking any credit for AJ's success or his vision, but I've certainly tried to help in the small ways that I can.

• 2:17:56Patrick Bet-David?

  Respect, that's amazing. It's great to see him doing what he's doing. Your two boys, especially working together and giving him the credit. That was great to see. And by the way, I got a text two weeks ago of a guy messaging me. We're on a flight, says, "Do you want to buy a T-Rex?" I thought it was a joke. And I said, "What do you mean, do I want to buy a T-Rex?" He says, "Well, there is a T-Rex owner of a museum in Europe that wants to sell it. Do you want to buy it?"

• 2:18:22Speaker 06

  Yeah, we looked at that one.

• 2:18:24Patrick Bet-David?

  You looked at that one?

• 2:18:25Speaker 06

  Yeah, it's a good one. It's going, "The problem with these skeletons, they're..."

• 2:18:28Patrick Bet-David?

  You know what he's asking for?

• 2:18:29Speaker 06

  But that was probably 55, I think, right? What was it, 55 million?

• 2:18:33Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, yeah, a little less than that. But maybe I got to introduce this guy to you guys.

• 2:18:36Speaker 06

  Okay, well, I think AJ's already talked to him. But there's one in Vancouver. The problem with these T-Rexes...

• 2:18:42Patrick Bet-David?

  There's only 38 of them.

• 2:18:43Speaker 06

  There you go, and they're not complete.

• 2:18:45Patrick Bet-David?

  No, they're not complete.

• 2:18:46Speaker 06

  Okay, and so you have to really analyze and you got to get the right parts of the skeleton to really make the thing viable.

• 2:18:53Tom Ellsworth?

  You've got Lucy, which is almost complete. And then you have everything else, which was skull and this. And how many replica bones make it up?

• 2:19:01Patrick Bet-David?

  You know what the sales was? Imagine if you buy it and if you put it in your office in your hangar and people stop by. I said, "You want me to buy T-Rex and put it in my hangar for people to stop by?"

• 2:19:12Speaker 06

  Well, let me tell you something about a T-Rex. Okay, now that we're talking about it, you can get yield on a T-Rex. Okay, you can, you can display that and get yield. You know, I owned for, I don't know, 10 years, the Batmobile from Batman Returns. You know, with Michelle Pfeiffer and, and we got yield on the car. You know, we bought the car and we, we moved it around the country to various car shows. And they, that's the car. You know, we had a website called Chicks Love The Car. They're not allowed to do that anymore, but that's the exact car. And, and it was, it was in Batman Returns.

• 2:19:44Patrick Bet-David?

  Would you buy it or would you sell it?

• 2:19:46Speaker 06

  Okay, so, this is a big lesson for everybody. Already listening, we bought it for $135,000, held it for 10 years, we sold it for $370,000. It's probably worth $4 million today.

• 2:19:59Patrick Bet-David?

  Stop. That's what I was gonna say. 370 is a steal.

• 2:20:03Speaker 06

  Yeah, I was, we, we, ah, we probably sold it in 2009 or 10, right after the financial crisis. But, you know, I owned it from 1999, you know, and listen, I mean, but here's the big lesson. If you own something like that, hold on to it. I think the very big lesson, 40 years of being an investor, my mistakes have been selling too early.

• 2:20:26Patrick Bet-David?

  Hmm.

• 2:20:26Speaker 06

  That's my, that's my, that's my lesson to people. Own quality, stick with quality, think like Michael Saylor and Warren Buffett.

• 2:20:33Patrick Bet-David?

  By the way, the best part of this podcast was probably last 30 minutes.

• 2:20:37Patrick Bet-David?

  Talking about money and investment. Anthony, great having you on. Are you full-time New York or are you?

• 2:20:42Speaker 06

  Full-time New York. Yeah, I'm full-time New York. I love Florida, but I, I'm raising, I've got an 11 and 8-year-old at home, so they're going to public school.

• 2:20:49Patrick Bet-David?

  Respect.

• 2:20:49Speaker 06

  In the town that I'm in, so but I'll hopefully get down here more.

• 2:20:53Patrick Bet-David?

  Congrats on the success, gang. Tomorrow is Scott Galloway. We talked about men, marriage, fatherhood. Rob, is this the intro? Go for it.

• 2:21:03Speaker 07

  If you spend enough time telling young men that they are the problem and that they're predators, they begin to believe you.

• 2:21:09Patrick Bet-David?

  How much of young men struggling today is them versus the system?

• 2:21:13Speaker 07

  And the most frightening statistic is that if you go into a morgue and there's five people who have died by suicide, four are men.

• 2:21:21Patrick Bet-David?

  I, I don't think we have enough voices of men that are good examples and challenging boys to become men.

• 2:21:29Speaker 07

  If you, if you reverse engineer to the single point of failure when a boy comes off the tracks, it's to one point and that's when he loses a male role model. The far left hasn't been any more productive because their advice is to say,

• 2:21:44Speaker 07

  Okay, you don't have problems, you are the problem. And my advice to you as a young man is to act more like a woman.

• 2:21:54Patrick Bet-David?

  Tomorrow, 9 a.m. God Galloway cannot wait for that to come out. Having said that, he's phenomenal. We had a great conversation. Again, you got any questions, comments, thoughts, finance, anything? Go to Manek, that's his QR code, send him a Manek. Welcome him to the platform as well. With that being said, take care everybody. I think we'll do this again, home team, Friday morning. Take care. Bye bye, bye bye.

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