A Hawks Power Play, Plus a Round 1 Playoff Mega-Preview With Joe House and Billy Gil

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Joe House to react to the Hawks trading Trae Young to the Wizards (2:54). Then, Billy Gil joins to break down the wild-card round of the NFL playoffs before making their Ringer 107 picks for the week (23:18). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Joe House and Billy Gil Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo Searchlight Pictures: Is This Thing On? Directed by Bradley Cooper. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit⁠⁠⁠ www.rg-help.com⁠⁠⁠ to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Football has a play for just about everything. And whether it's a flea flicker or a tush push, you need a plan that fits your unique situation. That's why State Farm takes the time to get to know you. So they can help personalize coverage for your life and for your budget. Now that's a solid game plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. This episode is brought to you by Workday. Guessing is for game shows, not your business, especially when your margin for error is zero. Workday is the enterprise AI platform for HR, finance and IT with a deep understanding of your organization's context and guardrails. So every AI action is permission aware, giving you accuracy 24/7 and the ability to not just get work done, but get it done right.

• 0:45Bill Simmons?

  It's a new Workday.

• 0:53Bill Simmons?

  The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. We're also brought to you by The Ringer Podcast Network, where I put up a new rewatchables on Monday. We did a big mailbag of questions that I got all through 2025. We kicked off 2026. We came up with some new categories and we use some of those new categories for the rewatchables that's coming on Monday night, or maybe Tuesday night. I think it's coming Tuesday night, actually, this week. We did What Lies Beneath. So stay tuned for that one. It was me and Chris Ryan and the person who loves Harrison Ford the most in this life, Malley Rubin. So stay tuned for that. Speaking of podcasts, quick reminder, tickets go on sale tomorrow for the Bill Simmons Podcast,

• 1:36Bill Simmons?

  which will be live in Los Angeles on February 11th at The Wiltern. It's gonna be fun. I love The Wiltern. I've done a couple of things there. Great theater. Get more information on tickets for this at theringer.com/events. Hopefully we'll see you there. And then this is the last podcast we're gonna be putting up fully on YouTube, because on Sunday night, we're going live on Netflix. The video for this podcast will still also be available on Spotify. You can get this podcast however you're getting it when you listen to it. And you can watch it live on Netflix. It will be right after the Pats Chargers game. I hope I'm coherent. But we're looking forward to that. Should be really fun, me and Cousin Sal. So I will see you then on Sunday night. Good luck to the Pats.

• 2:20Bill Simmons?

  Coming up, Joe House. We talked about the Trey Young trade and some basketball stuff at the top. And then Billy Gill joined us and we went through all six playoff games. Tried to turn our season around, came up with a bunch of picks. That's all next. We'll take a break. Pearl Jam and then Joe House and some basketball. The Bill Simmons Podcast is presented by FanDuel. FanDuel's got it all. Same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in live. They have your way. Go check out your way. You can build the bet that fits your play your way. Plus, don't miss out on the NFL playoffs, one of my favorite times of the year all month long. Download the FanDuel app or head to fanduel.com/bs to get started. Get ready for the playoffs. Let's go. Must be 21 plus, present in select states, 18 plus in DC, Kentucky and Wyoming.

• 3:05Bill Simmons?

  Game problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 888-79777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut.

• 3:41Bill Simmons?

  All right, 2:15 Pacific time. Joe House is there. We'll talk football in a second. But House's team made a big basketball trade.

• 3:51Bill Simmons?

  You got Trey Young. We've joked about it for years. We wondered if he was the perfect wizard. You were appalled for the last week or so as the rumors started. And then you make a trade where there's no pick in it. And I'm not sure which team should be more insulted that they didn't get a pick in this trade. Trey Young for Kispert and McCollum, two expiring contracts. The trade happened a while ago. There's been 100 podcasts about it. But none of those podcasts have an actual Washington Bullets fan on it. So Trey Young, you get in the jersey. What's happening?

• 4:20Speaker 01

  Yeah, I love that you went Bullets. That's appropriate, right? We're, because we're OGs and we're old school. And I'm coming from it from an OG, old school kind of perspective. I will tell you that I have come all the way around.

• 4:35Bill Simmons?

  I knew it. I knew it. Cause you were mad yesterday. I was, I'm gonna give this 18 hours. Let's push this back in the oven. Great.

• 4:42Speaker 01

  If you think about this from the perspective of trying to enhance your asset pool, it was a good trade for Washington. It was a good day for Washington and we will start.

• 4:53Bill Simmons?

  You outbid zero other teams. I mean, the market was robust.

• 4:58Speaker 01

  I will have my.

• 4:59Bill Simmons?

  Even the Kings were like, we're out.

• 5:01Speaker 01

  I have my quibbles, but here's the thing. We started yesterday with one player in the top 100 and now we have two. So that's, that's a good starting point, right?

• 5:13Bill Simmons?

  So 19 hours after the trade, that's where you've landed as you're trying to tuck yourself into it?

• 5:20Speaker 01

  No, here's the thing. The most important thing for the Washington basketball franchise in 2026 is to suck. And this trade absolutely positively helps them suck because Trey Young has an injury that has kept him out of quite a bit of, of his own teams, the Atlanta Hawks, uh, games this season. And I think that trend will continue. It also is a very low cost for Washington way of looking at a distressed asset.

• 5:51Bill Simmons?

  I love that you're like on autopilot with the explanation. You're dying inside. I could just tell.

• 5:56Speaker 01

  I will tell you.

• 5:56Bill Simmons?

  You're dying inside.

• 5:57Speaker 01

  I, I've had a chance. I went on local radio. I went over the sports junkies this morning.

• 6:01Bill Simmons?

  Local radio? The sports junkies? I love those guys.

• 6:04Speaker 01

  Our guys, our guys love those guys. I know. Um, I went on Toronto radio today. I'm all over the place.

• 6:10Bill Simmons?

  The fuck is happening with House? This Netflix thing has really, really turned it around. Fairway Roland's gonna be on Netflix next week?

• 6:16Speaker 01

  Yeah. How about that? That's exciting. Um, but look.

• 6:19Bill Simmons?

  I thought you gave up nothing and why not? And plus he's gonna probably either opt in or take a much cheaper deal for next year where it's either you opt in for 45 or he'll do 90 for three. You get him at a smaller price.

• 6:33Speaker 01

  Right. That rewards him for biding his time for the balance of this season. And then let's see if Washington can finally get lucky in a draft that's absolutely loaded. It, it, they, they protect themselves by not winning enough games to fall out of the bottom four. They must finish in the bottom four of the league to, to make sure that they have a pick that won't drop below eight because if it gets to nine, the Knicks take it, right?

• 6:58Bill Simmons?

  I don't even know if that's possible.

• 7:01Bill Simmons?

  Now you have 10 wins already.

• 7:04Speaker 01

  Well, I mean, I'm not kidding, buddy. I was at the Wizards magic game. Now, I don't know what the F is going on with the magic. They are.

• 7:13Bill Simmons?

  What's gonna go on? Their coach is gonna be on Red Fence soon, looking for new places to live. This is what's gonna happen.

• 7:20Speaker 01

  Are they quietly tanking? What am I misunderstanding with the magic? Like, they they put their third stringers in, and those third stringers made a very spirited comeback against Washington. So much so that I almost fired off one of my favorite, you know, angles, betting angles of the season, which is, hey, the Wizards are up by 17 going into the fourth quarter.

• 7:40Bill Simmons?

  Oh, the.

• 7:40Speaker 01

  Why don't you just get a little bit down, live bet on the Magic? And the Magic came all the way back. They were down by four points.

• 7:46Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 7:47Speaker 01

  None of their starters saw the floor for the rest of the game. All those third stringers were on. It was it was Jace Richardson and Jett Howard all the way to the bitter end. But Washington.

• 7:58Bill Simmons?

  You were texting us. You were texting us during that second half, and it almost seemed like Jamal Mosley was trying to get fired. Because he just kept all his dudes out. They have a Palo problem, too. We can talk about that another time. So Trey Young, who made the Eastern Finals once, worth mentioning, is only 27, which is a nice time to trade for somebody. And you gave up nothing other than expirings. The worst case scenario, he just leaves this summer. And it's just just two ships passing in the night. Right? Best case scenario, he's, you know. Maybe he comes in on a cheaper deal. Maybe he needed a change of scenery. The thing that's always bugged me about him, other than the fact that he doesn't play defense and his teammates don't really seem to like playing with him.

• 8:43Bill Simmons?

  He can't make threes anymore. And this has been a long time. Like, he peaked with threes in 2022 at 38%. And since then, he's been 33.5, 37, 34, and this year he was 30.5. Combined with the fact that he's not getting the line like he did. And it's a little like the John Moran thing where in your head, it's the young guy from five years ago, and I'm not sure it's the same guy. So that's the part, I trust you. You're one of the basketball people I trust. You're gonna have to watch him all the time now, and you'll know what's actually going on. I don't know anybody who's been watching the Hawks all the time.

• 9:15Speaker 01

  Well, I don't think that we're gonna get a real indication of what his role with this team is going to be until next season. Like, I really, really, really hope that he plays tomorrow night, that is to say Friday night, against New Orleans Pelicans. Because I'm going to that game, and I hope that that's his, his like debut. But I bet, like, the over/under, we should ask Fanduel if they'll do this, of games played by Trey Young over the rest of this season, I would set it at like 19 and 1/2, right? He's not gonna touch the floor.

• 9:49Bill Simmons?

  I'll take that now. I think it's like 12. Yeah. I think they'll make an arrangement. He'll get some surgery that he's always needed.

• 9:56Speaker 01

  The only thing is, is that the poor Washington franchise, it's been reported, is embarrassed by their attendance figures this season. Because I guess the, the open and notorious tanking job, not putting butts in seats, is not producing much in the way of gate money. But, so that would say, oh, let's get some Trey buzz right now, get some butts in seats. But it doesn't, it's counterintuitive to our goal, which is bottom four. That's it. That's the only thing that matters.

• 10:27Bill Simmons?

  Well, I'm sure there's gonna be a rush to the ticket gates for a guy who doesn't play defense and is shooting 31% from three.

• 10:33Speaker 01

  Gilbert Arenas thinks he's a superstar.

• 10:36Bill Simmons?

  Watch out, traffic jam, here it comes.

• 10:38Speaker 01

  Gilbert Arenas thinks he's a superstar, so.

• 10:41Bill Simmons?

  I'm fine. I don't mind a change of scenery trade when you give up nothing for a guy who, at one point, was a meaningful NBA player. And he's only 27. It's not like he's 32. I feel like you or the Kings were the two teams that were probably gonna be swimming in this pool. The most interesting thing about this for big picture is what this did for Atlanta from a trade flexibility standpoint. That's where my head went immediately. That's where a lot of the reports have come since. Is this step one, the gateway drug to the AD trade? Or, my theory?

• 11:16Bill Simmons?

  You go down the road pretending you're going for the AD trade, but you're really kind of pressuring Milwaukee a little bit to be like, "Look, we're gonna do this AD thing. If you speak now or forever hold your peace with Yanis." By the way, the Bucks lost last night to the Clippers, which I thought was a bad sign because they've been playing okay. The AD thing won't cost much because they got McCollum's expiring. They got Porzingis is expiring. AD's making 54 million. You throw in a pick. I don't think it's a New Orleans pick, but maybe something else. I don't know if Reese Shays in that. I wouldn't give up on Reese Shays at age 20. I still kind of like him. And then Dallas, if you do that and you're just getting expirings in a pick, now I'm tanking. Now I'm trading Gafford for Kaminga.

• 12:01Bill Simmons?

  Now I'm trading PJ Washington. Now I'm trying to become a bottom five or six team. And I'm just punting on the season, telling Kyrie to take the year off.

• 12:11Bill Simmons?

  And then the other thing with with Atlanta, if you get Davis, which I think we could argue about whether that's even a good idea. They're at least in a better spot than they used to be. If you're Dallas, could you then take McCollum in that deal and flip him for Fred Van Vliet in a pick? And if you're Houston, you're getting zero from Fred Van Vliet. You can turn him into McCollum for three months and maybe even re-sign Van Vliet after the season. I don't know. It just felt like there were some dominos in play with this house.

• 12:41Speaker 01

  Well, I will say this, and I'm interested in your take on this. I don't mean to immediately take every single piece of content that we touch and flip it into, what does FanDuel say? Except I'm very interested in what FanDuel has to say.

• 12:53Bill Simmons?

  I beat you four, four hours ago to this. Go ahead.

• 12:57Speaker 01

  Regular season wins for the Atlanta Hawks right now, 40 and a half is right there at plus 104.

• 13:07Bill Simmons?

  Over.

• 13:07Speaker 01

  Plus money for the Hawks over.

• 13:10Bill Simmons?

  See, that's not where I looked. I looked at Hawks 27 to one for the East. I thought caught my attention. Three months AD, actually giving a shit with the rest of the team that they have. We've watched these. Who do you like in the East? Do you like anybody? I don't.

• 13:30Speaker 01

  I like the Knicks. I do like the Knicks. Think the Knicks are good.

• 13:34Bill Simmons?

  I like Detroit, but I don't know if that's the team that they'll have.

• 13:37Speaker 01

  Well, I loved your conversation with Goldsberry. I mean, there's a deal to be, to be made, but it's just, does, do they want to mess with the chemistry?

• 13:46Bill Simmons?

  Right. Are they, do they want to move ahead of their cycle?

• 13:48Speaker 01

  They're tough, man. That's a tough team. I, I have been so impressed with Detroit this year.

• 13:53Bill Simmons?

  So Anthony Davis, assuming that this is piece number two in this trade, and I think in a, by the way, if you've been listening or watching or listening and watching to Rich and Max, Rich was spreading some breadcrumbs here, just throwing that out there. Not to promote another Ringer pod, but I just promoted another Ringer pod.

• 14:14Bill Simmons?

  Davis,

• 14:17Bill Simmons?

  I think the big fear with him is he's got a big contract player option thing. I'm looking it up. So if you trade for him, and the issue would be there's too many miles, there's too much wear and tear. Well, Goldsberry and I talked about the other day. The Carfax for him was even worse. The report wasn't honest. Somebody lied about the extra 50,000 miles on there. He's got 54 million, 58 million, player option for 62 million.

• 14:44Speaker 01

  Woof.

• 14:44Bill Simmons?

  In the 27, 28 season. And by the way, if you're trading for him, our guy Rich, the Ringer's Rich Paul, probably pushing for an extension at that point, too.

• 14:54Speaker 01

  Our guy Rich? How about that?

• 14:56Bill Simmons?

  So you just have to factor all that in if you're Atlanta. You got Jalen Johnson on a nice, cheap, cheap deal. He's one of the best star contracts in the league. I think he's like 30 million a year. You got expirings all over the place. He could probably afford the big one. From what you've seen of Davis, would this be your bet? I'm not sure it would be for me.

• 15:15Speaker 01

  I feel the same way. I mean, you, you, that's a, you have an opportunity that you really can't waste. If you're Atlanta here, right? Like you've, you've done the thing and this is, this is my quibble. No, nobody else in the, in the entire NBA was in the position that Washington was in terms of taking on salary. You said at the outset of this, nobody else was competing for, for Trey Young's services. Washington couldn't get any pick out of this. Now the, the, the pushback would be, I think from the front office. As I've thought this through, um, why do we want an Atlanta pick? If we look at how Atlanta might fare over the balance of this season and the next couple of seasons.

• 15:56Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 15:56Speaker 01

  Young core, let's see what they do in terms of this trade market. They might be good. So do you really want a pick that's going to be in the high teens or low twenties from Atlanta? Why don't we see how Trey Young performs over the next 18 to 24 months? And that's where your draft capital might come in, um, if he's able to rehabilitate himself. So I'm over here making excuses for the franchise.

• 16:18Bill Simmons?

  I just, give me a swap in like 2085, just something. Give me some sort of swap or somewhere.

• 16:25Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah.

• 16:26Bill Simmons?

  That would be the thing. Like you got all those swaps in the Bradley Beal trade.

• 16:29Speaker 01

  Amazing. Although I don't know.

• 16:31Bill Simmons?

  Which turned out to be great, except Phoenix is pretty good now.

• 16:33Speaker 01

  God damn it, Colin Gillespie. Can you just slow down a little bit?

• 16:37Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. So if I'm Atlanta, I go down the road with AD. I feel like I try to see if I can get him for cheap. And as I'm getting close to maybe being in the vicinity of landing the plane on a deal, I push hard with Milwaukee.

• 16:49Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 16:50Bill Simmons?

  And I say, look, man, we have all the expirings you need.

• 16:55Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 16:55Bill Simmons?

  We have the New Orleans pick. We have all of our other picks. We have Reese Shea. Like, let's have a real talk here. What are you doing with your team?

• 17:03Speaker 01

  Two first round picks. That would be amazing.

• 17:05Bill Simmons?

  Get out of jail free card. Plus we have the pick that is like either the best of the Pelicans pick or the Bucks pick. You are the Bucks. You can tank. Now you can tank with no conscience because you might get that pick. So that's what I would do if.

• 17:23Speaker 01

  This is a very good deal. Just, I want, I want your reaction to this parlay. Atlanta Hawks over forty and a half games. Dallas Mavericks under thirty and a half games. Is that too few for, for Dallas? That parlay pays out plus two eighty-nine.

• 17:40Bill Simmons?

  My only fear with Dallas is what Goldsberry said on the pod we did on Tuesday. That they have a kitchen right now. That, let's just say Dave Chang would be throwing punches. There's like five people in the kitchen.

• 17:52Speaker 01

  Well, that's a helpful thing.

• 17:54Bill Simmons?

  No, it's a, it's a group paralysis thing.

• 17:58Speaker 01

  But does that, that doesn't translate into wins?

• 18:02Bill Simmons?

  I know, but it's, what they should do is, is if you're going to trade Davis, then you just keep going. And it's a fire sale and, you know, PJ Washington's on a good contract. He would be really helpful for a team, right?

• 18:15Speaker 01

  Would fetch something attractive.

• 18:17Bill Simmons?

  Gafford for Kamingo is my favorite fake trade.

• 18:19Speaker 01

  Oh, wow. Amazing.

• 18:21Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 18:22Speaker 01

  It's, is that because you, you, you want Dallas to tank?

• 18:26Bill Simmons?

  I have a confession house. I didn't tell you this.

• 18:29Speaker 01

  Let me hear this. Let me hear it.

• 18:31Bill Simmons?

  As you know, I've mentioned a couple of times over the years, I have Quipper season tickets. I share with the one and only Mike Tolan.

• 18:38Speaker 01

  The great Tolan.

• 18:40Bill Simmons?

  Said over the weekend, usually we go to the Warriors games together. Because Steph Curry is, Steph Curry and Jokic are my two. I'm going if they're there. Wemby has now entered that group. Jokic, Curry, Wemby, I'm there if they're in town.

• 18:55Speaker 01

  Unimpeachable.

• 18:56Bill Simmons?

  He asked, he's like, I can't go Monday. You want the tickets? I said, no. Let's sell them. And we sold them.

• 19:07Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 19:09Bill Simmons?

  Wasn't available for my, my, uh, by Steph comes twice, the two times a year Steph comes. I rain checked it, made up an excuse. I'm under the weather, Steph. I can't make it today.

• 19:23Bill Simmons?

  I just didn't want to watch him on a shit Warriors team with fucking Draymond getting kicked out of every other game, or Steve Kerr getting mad at the refs, or these fucking guys that come in and Butler taking 10 shots. I couldn't do it. It was gonna make me mad. I wanted to enjoy my Monday night. Didn't go.

• 19:38Speaker 01

  Amazing. Unbelievable.

• 19:40Bill Simmons?

  Steph Curry, who's by the way, having an incredible year.

• 19:43Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 19:45Bill Simmons?

  Couldn't do it.

• 19:46Speaker 01

  I sat home and watched that game, um, and was, you know, unimpressed as always.

• 19:52Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, really. By the way, no regrets. Wasn't like I was sitting there at 10 o'clock going, damn, I should have gone.

• 19:57Speaker 01

  Right.

• 19:58Bill Simmons?

  But I thought that was a sad moment for the Curry.

• 20:01Speaker 01

  I'm sorry.

• 20:01Bill Simmons?

  Kerr's been saying over and over again, he's like, we're not, we're so far away. We have no chance. Like, I don't know what his agenda is with that.

• 20:08Speaker 01

  He's telling the truth.

• 20:09Bill Simmons?

  The, the real story is, we're not a must see team anymore, which is totally different.

• 20:13Speaker 01

  What do we do?

• 20:13Bill Simmons?

  Steph Curry in your team is, you know.

• 20:16Speaker 01

  You gotta pour a little out. What's, uh, Anchor Steam Ale. Isn't that up there in the, in the Bay Area? Isn't that the beer? Anchor Steam?

• 20:23Bill Simmons?

  Anchor Steam. Good beer. Um, one other thing happened yesterday. Jalen Brown had his, and I've been very praiseworthy of Jalen Brown this year. He had his first, I'm doing great this year and I'm on ESPN. Everyone watched me for a couple of hours game.

• 20:36Speaker 01

  Oh, I thought you were gonna talk about his first. He went out with his natural hairline.

• 20:40Bill Simmons?

  No.

• 20:41Speaker 01

  That is an underrated story here. I, the, the.

• 20:44Bill Simmons?

  We don't talk about it on the BS podcast.

• 20:45Speaker 01

  What about the, the Trey Young haircuts?

• 20:48Bill Simmons?

  I don't, don't, don't know about that either.

• 20:50Speaker 01

  Don't do Trey Young. I'm, I was thinking about, um, monitoring Trey's, the growth of his hair, cause that's part, that's, that's part of the refresh here. He arrives in Washington. We don't know what his hair looks like. And he starts growing some, like a giant head of hair. It would be amazing. I feel like I should, um, start a Twitter, get a Twitter handle, um, to monitor Trey's hair growth.

• 21:12Bill Simmons?

  White shaved his head for us, Derrick White.

• 21:14Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 21:15Bill Simmons?

  Looks great. It's, it was like a game changer for him. And LeBron seemed like he shaved his head the other day and I thought he looked really good too.

• 21:22Speaker 01

  LeBron's just handsome. He, what's happening with his beard and his, he's doing a great job.

• 21:28Bill Simmons?

  It's the best he's looked in a while. I remember when Karl Malone shaved his head near the end was a huge move for him. Right? It helped him. Dennis Haysburg kinda look. It did help him. But um, yeah, so Jalen had a, there was no ball movement. Murray was unbelievable, like just destroyed the salts. He was great. He's gotta be in the All-Star team. But it just worried me a little that Jalen, I, you know. Drinking his own Kool-Aid a little bit. Yeah, this team was like a very unselfish, you know, uh, last night didn't look that way. So we'll see how it goes. All right, we're gonna take a, congrats on Trey Young. Thank you. We're gonna take a break. We're gonna bring in the Duke, Billy Gill, our picks counselor to help us turn it around in the NFL playoffs. Here we go.

• 22:12Bill Simmons?

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• 22:55Bill Simmons?

  Must be 21 plus, present in select states or 18 plus and present in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Opt-in required. Rewards are non-mudorable. Restrictions apply, including bonus and token expiration leg requirements and max wager amount. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-888-789-777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by Searchlight Pictures. Have you ever hit rock bottom and found yourself telling jokes on stage? I have not had this happen, but that is the new film directed by Bradley Cooper. It's called Is This Thing On? Starring legends Will Arnett, Laura Dern, Andra Day, Bradley Cooper.

• 23:39Bill Simmons?

  It's about a guy trying to get his life back by throwing himself into the New York comedy scene. I saw this as a child of divorce. Obviously, I'm in on all child of divorce movies. Enjoyed the stand-up stuff. I thought Will Arnett was really good. Uh, Bradley Cooper.

• 23:56Bill Simmons?

  I've been with him since Star is Born as a director. Is this thing on? It's worth seeing it's now playing only in theaters. Get tickets today. All right, Joe House is still here. The Duke, Billy Gil is here. You can hear him on The Ringer NFL with Sheil a couple of days a week. Very entertaining as well as college football tailgate, which is just, I, I don't, I looked in the Golden Globes nominations, not nominated this year. It felt like a snub.

• 24:23Speaker 02

  I feel like we started too late in the year, you know, like there's the cutoffs or whatever. So next year we should be fine.

• 24:28Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, you're right. Maybe we didn't get in front of the voting committee in time. So 2025, I had a terrible everything year. I had my over unders house. I was 13 and 19. That's where I ended up, even though I had Denver, New England, Seattle, Chicago, like I had all the main ones. And then everyone in the middle just killed me. I think I went 0 and 8, 0 and 8 in the South divisions. All, all like the fringe ones like Buffalo, not getting there over Philly. I just was a bad year. And then for the picks, Ringer 107, 40 and 50. My worst year in a while, but the good news is 2026, small sample size 2025. I'm going to bet on the history with me.

• 25:13Bill Simmons?

  I doubled down. I did three days of work. We brought in the Duke. I'm feeling good about Ringer 107. Billy, how are you feeling about the playoffs?

• 25:21Speaker 02

  I feel like for you guys, this is the turnaround point in the season, right? You're 40 and 50, you're still in it in terms of Ringer 107. Last time I was on with you guys, I think you went three and two or four and one.

• 25:31Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 25:32Speaker 02

  The playoffs, I don't, I don't know how I'm, I'm excited that we're here. It was a good regular season. It was an exciting season. The playoffs were missing kind of like the classic people in the playoffs were missing. I think, I don't know who the team that you root for is. There's always one of those. I mean, you would root for the Patriots because of Drake May and all that. But there's also not really like the team you hate. Maybe the Eagles are that team just because they're the defending champions. But it's kind of wide open in terms of like teams and storylines and who you're rooting for, rooting against headed into the first week.

• 26:03Bill Simmons?

  You know, that's a really good point. We don't have the, everybody in America can align one way or the other teams. I think most people, House, would you, I don't have to ask House because he's from DC, but I think people are kind of done with Philly. And their contempt for being entertaining, even their own fans seem like they kind of can't stand them. But other than that, I don't, I don't really have any sort of hatred for any of these teams. I don't think. Is there, like, it's not like people would be like, I fucking hate the Rams. That Sean McVay, Stafford, like you going down the line, it's a pretty likable group of teams.

• 26:38Speaker 02

  It feels like this could be like the season that we get two random teams in the Super Bowl, which I don't know how I feel about. Like, it's kind of like in basketball, like you hated the Warriors towards the end because they were there every year, but also you wanted to kind of see them in the finals. But the NFL is just saying like, I want to see an established, good team in the Super Bowl. Two random teams, I feel like, I'm gonna watch either way, but two random teams will be like, eh, is this the Super Bowl?

• 27:03Speaker 01

  Well, that's, you know, I was looking at some of the exactas, trying to find some value in terms of the Super Bowl matchup and the outcome. And I landed on Seattle beating Jacksonville.

• 27:16Bill Simmons?

  Oh, fucking A house. That was the matchup I had.

• 27:19Speaker 01

  Well, you can still do it. Why are you cursing at me?

• 27:23Bill Simmons?

  No, Seattle Jacksonville is, I think, is the most likely Super Bowl in my head.

• 27:28Speaker 01

  Well, I just, looking at the last like 15 years, once every five years, we get one of these matchups that Billy's describing. So the last one was Cincinnati against the Rams. Now, the Rams had been to the Super Bowl with Jared Goff against the Patriots. The Patriots strangled the life out of them. But we had a really exciting Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, Super Bowl that really came out of left field. I kind of feel like that's the, the situation that we're in this season.

• 27:59Bill Simmons?

  I couldn't agree more. I, I've been comparing it for the last few weeks to the 2008 season, which was the year that Brady blew out his ACL eight minutes into the season and then just kind of all hell broke loose. And we ended up with Carson Palmer in Arizona in the Super Bowl against a pretty strange Pittsburgh team. And that was just kind of the Super Bowl. And it turned out to be a really good game, but I don't, I don't feel like anybody was watching it going, these are two peak football teams. It was just kind of where we landed. I think Cincinnati and the Rams is a good one. Even though the Rams were good that year, but the Bengals making it is the kind of thing that I think's in play this year. So we all agree on that, that this is going to just be weird playoffs.

• 28:42Speaker 02

  It feels like it. Looking back to the 2020 Super Bowl between the 49ers and the Chiefs, like, obviously, that was the start of the Chiefs dynasty and the run that they went on, right?

• 28:50Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 28:50Speaker 02

  But at the time, did it feel like that to you? Like, if you could forget about everything that happened after the fact, like, oh, the Kansas City Chiefs made it to the Super Bowl? Like, Andy Reid's, I guess, back. Let's see if he does it. That seemed like a random one at the time. Then you had, like, Raheem Mostert running loose. I think he had, like, 200-something yards the week before to get him to the Super Bowl. It seemed like those were two random teams that ended up being kind of like powerhouses as the years went on.

• 29:12Bill Simmons?

  Well, what was the year it was Vrabel?

• 29:16Bill Simmons?

  When they made it to the, it was Tennessee Cincinnati, right? Wasn't that one of the years when, the year Cincinnati made it? I guess they beat KC?

• 29:25Speaker 01

  They beat Tennessee. You're right about that.

• 29:26Bill Simmons?

  They beat Tennessee, but it was, I think we got killed in that game, House. Ryan Taylor killed us.

• 29:31Speaker 01

  I know. I don't forget when.

• 29:32Bill Simmons?

  I still feel like the bruises from that one.

• 29:35Speaker 01

  Yeah, there's still a chalk outline.

• 29:36Bill Simmons?

  One of those Tennessee years when it just felt like Tennessee had a chance to make the Super Bowl. We have that sometimes. I'm ready for that this year. If I had to pick, so FanDuel did a bet for me that people can do, that Jacksonville or New England will make the Super Bowl. I think the Pats, House disagrees. I think the Pats and Jacksonville win this week and we go to round two, and that's kind of, kind of decide, because I do not believe in Denver. I don't know. Billy, how do you feel about Denver?

• 30:04Speaker 02

  I saw that, that it, at FanDuel right now, you get plus 800 for the Broncos and the Seahawks to both make it, both number one seeds.

• 30:10Bill Simmons?

  Two one seeds.

• 30:11Speaker 02

  Yeah, which seems like, oh, two one seeds, like, you should do that. But I don't know if anyone actually believes in Denver. I know that they, you know, they, they had a great season. They're the one seed, obviously, but there's just something about them. Bo Nix, is he actually that good? Sean Payton, I mean, I, I don't trust them. I really don't. I feel like this could be a division round exit for them, depending on the matchup.

• 30:33Speaker 01

  The problem with, with Denver is Jacksonville went in there and kicked their ass. Like, if we didn't have in our sort of recent memory, seeing Trevor Lawrence go into Denver in, and it mattered, in meaningful, like, December football, and they just whooped them. I mean, it was, you know, it was one of those games that Denver's defense just couldn't keep up. I, that, that's the problem. What, after, with that in our recent memory banks, you can't, you know, say, oh, well, I'm, I'm, it's all, this is all Denver. This is an all Denver path here.

• 31:08Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, housemates. I thought the same thing about there are certain games you can't get out of your, kind of the taste out of your mouth. We had Denver that game, of course, from Ringer 107, and Jacksonville kicked their ass for three hours. And it was impressive. And I actually don't think they've got enough credit for how good they've been the last couple of months. They have talked about this every week. I think it's been a big rallying cry for them, which is another thing. We're going to go in the playoff manifesto in a second. They're a pretty complete team. And the catch is Trevor Lawrence turns into a pumpkin in the playoffs, and you're like, I knew it. I knew that was going to happen. But it just might not happen. We're going to go through the playoff gambling manifesto, which I have been working on every year since I had my old website, pre-ESPN. And I sent

• 31:52Bill Simmons?

  this to you guys. I'm going to read it, read through it quickly. It's been pretty reliable over the years. We've added a couple of things over the years. There's some stuff that doesn't qualify for this year, like beware of the looked a little too good, the previous round team. That's rule number one. We won't know about that till, till round two. Don't bet against God, puppies, and gambling theories from Pakistan. That's really Tim Tebow, Kurt Warner related. When religion comes in in a strong way, just, you know, just put the flashers on. Rule number three has been incredibly reliable this entire century. Beware of the nobody believes in us team. But then we also had to add the don't talk, don't try too

• 32:31Bill Simmons?

  hard to talk yourself into the nobody believes in us team either. So I want to stop here. I think the Duke probably has the best feel for this. I like calling you the Duke, even though I don't even think you really like it. The, the nobody believes in us. Jacksonville's tried to embrace it. San Francisco, Carolina's out. I mean, Carolina is a plus 10 and a half underdog at home and round. They don't even count. Does San Francisco feel nobody believes in us to you at all?

• 33:00Speaker 02

  I was trying to figure that out. The three teams that I wrote down coming into this week until nobody believes in us Jaguars that you mentioned, the Panthers that you kicked out, and I'm wondering if the Bears are one of those teams that's a nobody believes in us team. Because the fact that they're an underdog at home seems surprising to me.

• 33:19Bill Simmons?

  Can I add for one more? Because part of the nobody believes in us is you have to play out the entire upset in your head, followed by the post-game interview after?

• 33:31Bill Simmons?

  And I found myself moving to Monday night, Houston, Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh, not only covering the plus three, but winning outright. And then Rogers talking after and doing the dismissive Rogers thing and go, and look, nobody's believed in us all year. That hasn't changed. And doing that, I'd be like, oh, this is how the Steelers feel. But I don't, it's almost like baked into the Steelers. So how, does it even count with them?

• 33:55Speaker 01

  No, it's part of their identity. Nobody believes in them, including their own fan base. I mean, they were literally chanting fire Tomlin less than a month ago.

• 34:05Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 34:07Speaker 01

  In Accra sure. Isn't that the name of the stadium? Fire Tomlin.

• 34:11Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that was a slap in the face.

• 34:13Speaker 01

  And, and, and, and yet here we are. So, right. It's part of the DNA. It's part of their voodoo. I don't think that they qualify.

• 34:20Bill Simmons?

  So Jacksonville is the team because I think the case for that, on top of that, they've been playing the card for eight weeks is they are not favored at home as a three seed against a team they have a better record than, than they've been out playing for the last three months. And Buffalo's favored because of Josh Allen, really only. That's the only, there's no other reason. So I think that's the answer, Billy. I think it's Jacksonville. Okay.

• 34:42Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 34:43Bill Simmons?

  Rule number four, be careful of the everybody believes in us team. And the nobody believes in our QB, but us motherfuckers team. There's a certain level of nobody believes in us where they get very, very possessive and, and protective of their own quarterback. You saw this happen with the Rams with Jared Goff a little bit, but there's certain, I don't think that qualifies, but the everybody believes in us team. Who is that, Billy? Who has too many people on the bandwagon?

• 35:09Speaker 01

  He's right. He's right. It's the Rams. Duke is on it. It's the Rams.

• 35:14Bill Simmons?

  Anybody else? Is there an AFC? Not really. I don't think anyone believes in any AFC team.

• 35:19Speaker 02

  People are high on the Seahawks too. I mean, they're the one seed, so it's easy to be high on the Seahawks, but we haven't seen Sam Darnold unravel yet, which he did at the end of last year some.

• 35:30Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 35:30Speaker 02

  And it hasn't happened this year. So it makes you wonder, is it going to happen at some point? I mean, he has the bye week, so it can't happen this week, but it seems like it's the Rams right now.

• 35:40Bill Simmons?

  I think that's fair. They're a five seed. They blew their chance to win the division. They've looked a little gamey in a couple of these outdoor games. We'll come back to them later. Rule number five, beware of any team that could use a notable off-field distraction or tragedy as a galvanizing force, not in play yet. Rule number six is a really important one. Never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe that it has a chance to win. Doesn't always hit. There's been times underdogs cover, but don't win. But for the most part, it's the playoffs. You're just better off thinking in your head. Can they actually win? And this is a key one for Niners Eagles. Don't take the Niners plus four and a half and be like, I think it's going to be close, could be a three point. Like if you, do you think the Niners are going to win or not?

• 36:24Bill Simmons?

  And if you don't think they're going to win, don't take them with the four and a half. The next two are weather related and they're also very important. And this one especially I added this year. Beware of all dome or warm weather teams playing outdoors in cold weather or cold weather teams playing outdoors in humid weather, which is really Florida and Carolina. So we have that in play this weekend. We have a Florida home game and we have a Carolina home game. And it seems like Jacksonville is going to be high 60s. You have this Buffalo team that's cold all the time, getting a little gamey during the afternoon. I'm just monitoring that. Well, you like that one at All House? Cause we've seen the Pats go to Miami when it's 80. I know Billy enjoys when this happens.

• 37:05Bill Simmons?

  And they just run out of gas two hours into the game.

• 37:07Speaker 01

  Well, I'm not going to blame the weather, but we just watched the Bills go down to Miami. Now it was, what was it? Right after the Chiefs game? So they were running on empty. But you know, they, they, they got a boat race. I mean, that was, that wasn't, that was 30 to nothing, wasn't it?

• 37:24Bill Simmons?

  Right. That could be the Rams and Carolina too. It's another, there's a bunch of like interesting reasons to zag against the Rams.

• 37:32Bill Simmons?

  Number nine, discount first five, six weeks in the season. I think everybody knows how to do that. Doesn't, what you did in September, it doesn't matter. Rule number 10. Oh, I'm sorry. Rule number eight was the beware of any aging QB in cold weather unless it's Tom Brady. So this kind of fits Rogers, but I am, is Rogers an outlier for this rule because of how many games he's played in cold weather? What's your ruling, Billy?

• 37:53Speaker 02

  I had Rogers as my guy for this one, too. I looked up the weather there. It's supposed to be 32 degrees. It feels like 24. Not snow, 22% chance of precipitation, 50 mile per hour winds. But he spent his whole career in Green Bay in those games. So it's not like-

• 38:10Bill Simmons?

  He's like a fucking Eskimo. Like, he's not used to this yet?

• 38:12Speaker 01

  32 in Pittsburgh is balmy compared to Lambeau.

• 38:16Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I don't think, I think that bounces off him. Plus, he grew up in Northern California. Weather's weird. So I almost feel like I should add Rogers to this. Uh, rule number 10 is crucial. When in doubt, gravitate toward the one pick that would screw over the most gamblers and experts and definitely be the opposite side of the single worst gambler you know. What is the most obvious game this week?

• 38:38Speaker 01

  The Rams and the Panthers.

• 38:40Bill Simmons?

  Mm hmm. Rams money line, Rams minus 10.

• 38:43Speaker 01

  Rams money line.

• 38:46Bill Simmons?

  So the most obvious pick, I think, this week is people doing money line teases with the Rams as the first leg. Right? Either 10-point tees, throwing the minus 650 in the rest of their bets. I think that's the most obvious thing to do this week, and it makes me nervous. Just out of the gate, along with a lot of other things about that game. Is there another one that you think's too obvious? Eagles against the banged up Niners? Does that, that line move the point?

• 39:13Speaker 01

  It's the second highest line because every, you know, every, it's a really weird set of lines.

• 39:18Bill Simmons?

  You have anything, Billy? Anything?

• 39:20Speaker 02

  No, I had, no, I had the same one. I had for that one, the Panthers. I feel like everyone's staying away from the Panthers. And we saw them beat the Rams a couple of weeks ago, but it was like, everything had to go right for the Panthers in that game, and everything kind of went wrong for the Rams in that game. And they still only won by a field goal and still almost tied the game with a field goal at the end, but then Stafford kind of fumbled the ball with two minutes left.

• 39:41Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I went back and I, I, I looked through that game. There was a pick six from Stafford.

• 39:47Speaker 02

  Mm hmm.

• 39:49Bill Simmons?

  The Panthers had two long pass touchdowns on fourth down?

• 39:54Bill Simmons?

  And then Bryce Young was great. Bryce Young was three touchdowns, no picks. It was arguably the best game he's ever played. And as you said, the Rams had the ball at the end and they kind of fucked it up. But I'm not sure the Panthers could do that well ever again. They were missing guys on their side. I don't think they had J.C. Horn for that game. I think they're healthier than they were. But, you know, do I think they can score 31 points against the Rams again? I don't.

• 40:22Speaker 02

  That game fell apart quickly, though, and the Rams were still in it the entire way. So there was, they were going back and forth. Rams score, Panthers score. Rams drive down the field, interception in the end zone. Then Panthers punt it, Rams throw a pick six, and then they're still in the entire game, even with all of that going right there in it. And then it took rain at the end of the game. And by the way, Puka didn't have a good game. Like, he had his miraculous catches here and there, but he didn't have a touchdown. He had less than 100 yards in that game. They would need to replicate that exact formula to win again against the Rams. I don't see it happening.

• 40:57Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that...

• 40:57Speaker 02

  None of us do.

• 40:58Bill Simmons?

  So we only have to pick five Ringer 107 games. That could be the one we punt. It's one of these games we just kick to the side. That's the leading contender. Rule number 11 is don't ever talk yourself into terrible QB ever for any reason. This rule really came into effect the one year. Who was the guy in Dallas in the early 2000s who had to start? Quincy Carter, something, a name like that? He was really off. It was in the line, never adjusted for how bad he was. And it was, and it was just, it's stuck with me ever since. But bad QBs in general, you just don't want them in the playoffs. Miami's had a couple over the years where we've had some playoff games, not to bring up terrible memories, but...

• 41:40Speaker 02

  Skylar Thompson almost beat the Bills, what he talked about.

• 41:42Bill Simmons?

  Skylar Thompson worked out the best, yeah. Rule number 12 doesn't count yet, but where have any team that celebrated the weekends, previous weekend's playoff victory, like to win the Super Bowl? Rule number 13 is a recent ad. Don't dismiss the nerd evidence if the nerd evidence is absolutely overwhelming. So this is where we move into the DVOA EPA land. And honestly, it's stuff like Buffalo having the 31st ranked run defense in EPA is significant. When you think of the Jaguars have had some games where they have run on people's asses like they did to the Chargers. It's just when you, when you see Chicago's another one that has some, some pretty convincing nerd stuff going against them.

• 42:24Speaker 01

  Yeah, you take the turnovers away from their defense and it's one of the two worst defenses in the NFL.

• 42:30Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they're 25th in DVOA anyway. EPA, they were 17th against the pass and 24th against the run. Would they have 22, they're plus 22 with turnovers this year?

• 42:45Bill Simmons?

  Can't ignore any of that stuff. Um, rule number 14 is another, this one I added this year. Our old friend, Mike Lombardi, who stopped podcasting and become the UNC general manager.

• 42:59Bill Simmons?

  He had a law that I always thought was great about bad offensive lines don't travel. And the rule is bad offensive line, you can get away with it at home, but if you're on the road, the crowd's loud, your offensive line sucks to begin with, just be careful. And there's a couple lines like that this week, including the Chargers, fortunately for me. But I actually texted Lombardi and asked him if the Texans qualify and he said yes. Shaky offensive line for them too. Uh, rule number 15, look at the coaches. Just take a long look. We don't have any, do we have a stinker coach this year, Billy? Do we have a playoff coach that you're just like, I don't trust that dude at all?

• 43:39Speaker 02

  Um, I mean.

• 43:42Bill Simmons?

  We don't have a Norv Turner this year.

• 43:44Speaker 02

  No, we have, we have some rookie coaches, right? That we have to kind of see, is Liam Cohen gonna do well? Like, yeah, how's, how's McDonald's gonna do in the playoffs? So you have unproven coaches, I would say, but no like outright stinkers that kind of snuck their way in there with a good team, I don't think.

• 44:00Bill Simmons?

  House, any coach you just dislike?

• 44:02Speaker 01

  Many people are still skeptical about Sirianni. His, his record is outstanding, both in the regular season and, and in the playoffs. But there's still that lingering sort of fear skepticism that this, this, this Eagles team resembles the one from a handful of years ago that were, you know, but the one a couple of years ago completely fell off the rails and everybody saw the first round where, where they were, they were favorites going into Tampa and Tampa beat their butts, knocked them out of the playoffs. This is a different version altogether because that, this Eagles team defensively is, I mean, you know, a million miles superior to that one. But Shanahan, Sirianni, I don't know.

• 44:46Bill Simmons?

  Did you have one, Billy?

• 44:47Speaker 02

  No, can I ask a question about this rule? So there's a lot of hypothetical in this rule also that involves traveling and a passport. And I was wondering the specifics of that.

• 44:56Bill Simmons?

  Should I read that?

• 44:58Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 44:59Bill Simmons?

  So the, the whole rule is rule number 15. Take a long look at the head coaches, consider their playoff history, compare them in your heads to some of the all time January stink bombers like Marty Schottenheimer, Jim Mora, Herm Edwards, Norv Turner, or the clapper, Jason Garrett. Then pretend you're flying abroad with one of these coaches and they're holding your wallet and passport the entire time. How would you feel? I don't, there's no coach in here that would make me nervous like that. By the way, I just, as an aside, may, may the clapper please come back. I saw his interview for multiple jobs. I've never been more excited for non-Boston news ever. House, I know you were delighted.

• 45:39Speaker 01

  It's unbelievable. When Cousin Sal broke it out, we, we did our hump day headlines on the Wednesday Ringer Gambling Show and he said it with a straight face, Jason Garrett is interviewing for the Tennessee job. I thought it was a comedy bit.

• 45:52Bill Simmons?

  Right. You were waiting for him to finish the punch.

• 45:55Speaker 01

  What has anybody been watching on television that would instill confidence, engender confidence? He was a horrendous coach in Dallas, undermined great teams at every turn, and then has been extraordinarily mediocre. The guy that said that he has, what is it? The, the ham bone, that, that mad game of frozen ham bone for the free? Get the fuck out of here, this guy? Are you fucking kidding me? Please, dear God, if there's a God, the football gods have been so good to us. Please, in 2026, give that man a head coaching job.

• 46:29Bill Simmons?

  We, Billy, we didn't have enough comedy on the coaching sidelines this year. Everyone's hiring these young whippersnappers who actually know what they're doing. Mike McDaniel did his best.

• 46:38Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 46:38Bill Simmons?

  He really tried to be hilarious every week.

• 46:40Speaker 01

  Callahan was pretty good.

• 46:42Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, God, God bless DJ Mikey Mack. We're gonna miss him, not spinning his tracks anymore for the Dolphins. Uh, but yeah, I thought, I thought we were late this year, right?

• 46:51Speaker 02

  Yeah, this honestly was like, was this the best coaching cycle hires ever? None of them flopped, like, they all worked out. And this, this coming year, I mean, I guess you now have John out there, right? John Harbaugh is gonna get a job right away. McDaniel, everyone's kind of thinking about, where's he gonna be in OC? I don't know if Joe House wants him up there in Washington.

• 47:11Speaker 01

  I do, I do.

• 47:12Bill Simmons?

  They signed up already.

• 47:14Speaker 01

  Big fan, yeah, that's, that's his job. That's his best, you know, highest use. Let him be an OC for Dan Quinn.

• 47:21Bill Simmons?

  I saw that Vance Joseph is getting some run now. And I remember him being terrible. And I went back and looked at his two teams. And he lasted two years with Denver. In the second year, Case Keenum was his quarterback. So I'm like, you know what? Who knows? Like, I, I think if we've learned anything, it's if you have a shit quarterback or a mediocre quarterback or whoever, like, you just have no chance, right? There's other times where it's like Antonio Pierce, there's more stuff going on than your quarterback wasn't good, or Hugh Jackson. But with Vance Joseph, he's a very well-respected DC. So maybe, um, there were, there's some other coordinators they're throwing out. I don't think McDaniel's. Brian Flores, people seem to keep trying him out and it never really takes.

• 48:04Bill Simmons?

  But Harbaugh, that was, had to be one of the reasons he must be happy that. Which job would you take out of those two, Giants or Falcons? Cause to me, I would take the Falcons 100 times out of 100.

• 48:16Speaker 02

  Would you take the Ravens? I feel like the Ravens might be the best job that's out there right now.

• 48:20Bill Simmons?

  Well, not for Harbaugh.

• 48:21Speaker 02

  No, not for Harbaugh. No, no, not Harbaugh. Yeah, no, if you're Harbaugh, I honestly was wondering if this is a thing where, you know, they didn't announce Mike McDaniel's firing right away. Steven Ross always wanted Jim Harbaugh. I was wondering if this is a situation because there was the rumor out there where it's like seven teams have already contacted John Harbaugh, but there's only six openings that would apply to him. So someone is out there talking to John and then all of a sudden after that was out there, McDaniel's fired a day later. I wonder if there's like some insider trading going on there with Steven Ross where he's already decided, you know what? I couldn't get the Harbaugh I wanted. I'll settle for the other Harbaugh instead.

• 48:59Bill Simmons?

  So how? So you could be New York Giants, Jackson Dart, neighbors coming back, top five pick, good defense, fourth place schedule, famous franchise. That's pick one. Atlanta, loaded on talent. We're probably a 13 win team that went eight and nine. They don't have their first round pick, easier schedule, and you could go right in and make an impact. Or Miami, you could just live in Miami.

• 49:27Bill Simmons?

  What would you do?

• 49:29Speaker 01

  Well, what Harbaugh would do and I would do are two radically different things because I would say to Steven Ross, I just want $20 million a year over the next five years. If you give me a hundred million dollars, I'll come coach this team. The problem is...

• 49:43Bill Simmons?

  Who's on it?

• 49:44Speaker 01

  Yeah, don't care. Who's the quarterback of Miami next year?

• 49:47Speaker 02

  When yours?

• 49:48Speaker 01

  Is he going to be the starting quarterback, the Miami Dolphins?

• 49:51Bill Simmons?

  He looked good for about an hour against the Pats and then he just threw it right to us in the end zone and that was that.

• 49:57Speaker 01

  Oh, right. The Duke, you're a Dolphins fan.

• 50:01Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 50:02Bill Simmons?

  Who do you want?

• 50:04Speaker 02

  They, I mean, the two, they have to get rid of two, right? Like it's obvious that they're going to move on from two at this point in time, but it seems like that's going to be a thing just because of like financial reasons. They'll wait till after the June 1st deadline because then they can kind of move the money around, but... They're they don't have a high enough traffic to get a quarterback in the draft. You have to kind of hope that they trade for a quarterback like there's not a there's not a quarterback out there. What you're gonna hope that Justin Fields is released and then you try with him for a year and that he's bad enough.

• 50:34Bill Simmons?

  Harbaugh is not doing that. Somebody might do that. John Harbaugh is not doing that.

• 50:38Speaker 02

  Well, that I mean, the Dolphins thing is going to be fire McDaniel. He then goes becomes an OC for a team like he. I see a scenario where he can then go if he doesn't go to Washington. He can have a reunion in San Francisco, depending on how the playoffs go there, or he can then maybe go up to Baltimore where he has Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, and then he becomes the OC there. And then all of a sudden, he's an offensive genius again. You fired this offensive genius that you had because he didn't have the quarterback that he needed. He did the best anyone could probably do with Tua, right? But the thing that the Dolphins would do is fire the offensive genius without a replacement plan, hoping that you get John Harbaugh, who then goes to the Giants to coach Jackson Dart.

• 51:17Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 51:18Speaker 02

  And then you have to figure out what I do.

• 51:20Bill Simmons?

  How many times have somebody backed out on the Dolphins at the last minute? That's happened at least four times. I mean, you had Brady, basically, too. That was the other one. The secret Brady deal was one of the great 2020 stories.

• 51:31Speaker 02

  I'm so like that that Brady situation is so wild and with like all the tampering and cheating that goes on in the NFL. And I and like you read the reports of how kind of Brian Flores, he ended up suing the Dolphins and that was the whole thing and suing the league, right? But then there were reports like he kind of lost the team. Ryan Fitzpatrick came out like I think earlier this week and he was talking about how he changed like from when he started towards the end, he became kind of like a dictator and was trying to embrace like the Belichick Patriots way without actually having any of the success to do so, right? But

• 52:04Speaker 02

  this is just one of those things where that he decided that that was the moment with Tom Brady, that he was not going to step foot on a yacht to cheat and bring Tom Brady to the Dolphins. And I don't understand why that is the point of integrity that you need to kind of like take a stand on. It's crazy to me.

• 52:20Bill Simmons?

  Also, he was kind of cheating the whole time and then didn't complete the cheat.

• 52:26Speaker 02

  Yeah, just if you're gonna cheat, go all cheat like there's there's no honor in half ass cheating that then gets you fired.

• 52:34Bill Simmons?

  You paid for the OnlyFans model to come over.

• 52:39Speaker 01

  No, I didn't.

• 52:39Bill Simmons?

  Sorry, House. That hit too close to home.

• 52:41Speaker 01

  How dare you? I did not.

• 52:43Bill Simmons?

  I think the funniest outcome would be Harbaugh actually coming to the Dolphins and bringing Snoop Huntley with them. And again, Sunday style, like Pacino. I'm going on a new expansion team and I'm bringing Willie Beaman as my first signing. And the credits, it'd be amazing.

• 53:01Speaker 02

  A nice reunion for Snoop Huntley, who was there last year when Tua was out and tanked the Dolphins season.

• 53:06Bill Simmons?

  He can live in his same Airbnb.

• 53:10Bill Simmons?

  Crazy that eight, eight of the 32, that seems like a pretty high number for NFL coaching upheaval. Some of them are a surprise. I, we said on Sunday night, we said going to Sunday that Pittsburgh Baltimore was a loser leaves town match. I just really felt like whoever lost that game was done. Quickly, four more rules, beware of any team that reminds you of 2007 Giants.

• 53:32Bill Simmons?

  Maybe the Chargers?

• 53:35Bill Simmons?

  I don't think their defense is good enough is the problem, but it's that kind of blueprint, 17, 14 type games, but I don't think we have that team this year. Make sure the team with a home field advantage actually has a home field advantage. Really crucial for the Eagles. The Eagles at home, their fans can just get really bummed out and kind of surly if it's a certain type of game. Where I almost wonder.

• 53:59Speaker 01

  You mean a zero pass completion in the second half of the game?

• 54:01Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, we've watched it. You know what I'm talking about. Yeah. It's, it's, there's a vibe that can unfold in those games. And I gotta be honest, I'm a little worried about the Sunday night Pats game.

• 54:12Speaker 01

  Hmm, why?

• 54:13Speaker 02

  Why?

• 54:15Bill Simmons?

  Just cold night, late. Just, I, I, I don't know.

• 54:21Speaker 01

  Your, your, your Masshole brothers will have been drinking all day.

• 54:24Bill Simmons?

  Like that's part of what I'm worried about. Maybe burn, might be, might be peaking around three in the afternoon. I don't know. I just, those day games always worry me. 18, look at the quarterbacks again. And rule number 19, don't try to be hero. Just try to win money. So there's some good, good ones to apply to the six games. We'll take a break. We're going to come back and we're going to hit all the. This episode is brought to you by WeatherTech. Whether it's a pumpkin spice coffee that goes splat in your seat or a weekend tailgate that leaves your trunk full of gear and who knows what? You're going to want WeatherTech in your vehicle. Whether you call it fall, autumn or spooky season. Whether the mess is your fault, the kids, the dogs or the weather's fault. You're going to want WeatherTech for American made floor liners and a cargo liner that laugh in the face of fall weather.

• 55:09Bill Simmons?

  Visit weatherTech.com today. This episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. In today's sports, everyone is constantly trying to outdo each other. Trick formations, infield shifts, constant rotation changes. Yet it's proven time and time again that strong fundamentals are the thing that will lead you to victory. Banking, no different. While everyone else tries to outdo each other, PNC Bank just keeps going right down the middle with steady, calculated money moves and the financial wins just keep coming. PNC Bank, brilliantly boring since 1865. Brilliantly boring since 1865 is a registered mark of the PNC Financial Services Group, Incorporated. PNC Bank, National Association Member, FTIC. Games. All right, we talked about it in the manifesto.

• 55:53Bill Simmons?

  Rams minus 10 and a half Panthers.

• 55:58Bill Simmons?

  Give us your, your wacky angle for this game first, Billy.

• 56:02Speaker 02

  I have two angles for this one. If you'd like two or I could just give you one.

• 56:06Bill Simmons?

  No, you can double up.

• 56:07Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 56:07Bill Simmons?

  We got, we got all the time in the world.

• 56:09Speaker 02

  All right. First angle, is this Bryce Young's Powerball game slash playoffs? Is this the game where they were out on him two years ago? They, they drafted him, didn't work out. Last year they benched him. It took a car accident for Andy Dalton to then get removed. You bring Bryce back. He then plays this season. He does well. It seems like he's, he's not what they thought he was going to be as a number one pick. But he's now gotten them to the playoffs. It's hard to find a franchise quarterback in the playoffs. If he somehow pulls off a miraculous win, does he do enough with the Panthers? Who are notorious for mismanaging everything in their organization? They still don't need to do this.

• 56:53Speaker 02

  They still have a fifth year option that they could give from 26.5 million. And he still has a year on his rookie deal. But if he does.

• 56:58Bill Simmons?

  And they can tag him after that.

• 57:00Speaker 02

  Yeah, but. If he does it, is this something that gets the emotions to a place where they give him the Daniel Jones for your $160 million deal?

• 57:10Bill Simmons?

  Is that what we're calling it now, the Daniel Jones?

• 57:13Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's a power ball. It's one game and you win life-changing money because, you know, you just have the one game. You also have like Joe Flacco, you can go back to 2012 when he had the playoff run where he was done with his rookie deal. He wins the Super Bowl. He gets the long-term deal. And at the time, it was like 120 million, but it was like one of the highest average.

• 57:30Bill Simmons?

  I mean, it really should be called the Flacco.

• 57:32Speaker 02

  Yeah, well, I mean, it's, it's the Jones. When it's Bryce Young, you sign him to the deal and then it completely falls apart. Like, we're not looking for something like, this is a statement game. He's arrived. Now he's here. This is a, he has one game. They make a bad deal, give him all this life-changing money. And then it's like, oh no, now our hands are tied. Now we need to figure out how to get out from under this contract because we're just kind of stuck in the middle for the rest of time.

• 57:56Bill Simmons?

  Can I add an addendum to this?

• 57:58Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 57:59Bill Simmons?

  If Chicago, Philly, and Carolina all somehow win, which the first two, first two teams are home, this is an unrealistic, we would get the Bryce Young trade referendum Super Bowl in round two, Chicago versus Carolina.

• 58:18Bill Simmons?

  If you remember, controversial trade once upon a time. And now if Bryce Young gets killed in Chicago, doesn't that solve your issue? He wins the playoff game, but then gets killed by the team that they made this crazy trade for Bryce Young and then he does get the contract. If he beats the Rams and Chicago, now we're in a Trey Young 2018 situation where now you're a franchise guy.

• 58:39Speaker 02

  Mm hmm. Until you're not.

• 58:43Bill Simmons?

  What's your other angle?

• 58:44Speaker 02

  My other angle, does Matthew Stafford know the MVP race is over? Or is he going to try to be doing too much? So there's the whole Matthew.

• 58:53Bill Simmons?

  You think he thinks it goes through the playoffs?

• 58:55Speaker 02

  I think that he thinks that.

• 58:57Bill Simmons?

  Somebody's got to tell him.

• 58:58Speaker 02

  There's too much going on here. I was going and I was looking on like message boards of Ram fans, seeing what they're talking about, seeing if they're excited. And it's just conspiracy theories over why Matthew Stafford is the MVP of the league, like. They are so upset that Drake May could win the MVP that they're just looking into different things. It's an obsession that they have. So here are some of the things that they've come up with. They were trying to make the argument that a one yard touchdown pass, which you have said and others have said, he would have just kind of pad his stats and then he'd go in there and he'd lead the league in touchdowns. The argument by Rams fans that was being made was that the one yard touchdown pass is actually the hardest of the touchdown passes to come by because all you have

• 59:40Speaker 02

  is 11 yards of field to work with, where at any other point in time, you have a wide open field. So it would be easier to get any other touchdown than in a crowded 11 yards. Do you buy into that theory?

• 59:52Bill Simmons?

  No, especially not when I have Devante Adams, who like his last remaining like super elite skill is to catch these short telephone booth passes.

• 1:00:02Speaker 02

  All right. Do you want to hear another theory that they have going on?

• 1:00:05Bill Simmons?

  I'd love to hear all the theories. By the way, the Rams fans were the ones who were planning the parties in New Orleans in 2001. See, now I'm going to root against the Rams. I don't like this Rams red thing at all.

• 1:00:15Speaker 02

  I think you wanted to root against the Rams this whole time.

• 1:00:17Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I think I was looking for, yeah, yeah, I was looking for an excuse.

• 1:00:20Speaker 02

  All right. So here's another theory that they have out there. They believe that Drake May intentionally padded his stats and passer rating by taking sacks that because that doesn't count against you in passer rating to prevent Matthew Stafford from winning a quarterback triple crown of touchdowns, yards and quarterback rating. And their argument was that Drake May was sacked 24 more times than Matthew Stafford, but only had 50 more sack yards. So therefore, these were all like close sacks where he could have easily just thrown the ball away, but was opting not to do so so that he would have a higher passer rating.

• 1:00:55Bill Simmons?

  That's amazing. So as somebody who watched every snap this season, first of all, he's running for his life 12% of the time because their offensive line, especially when they have left tackle. But he was really good at almost getting out of the sack and then getting chased down. So it was a lot of ones where he should have been sacked further back in the line of scrimmage, but was able to kind of fight for survival for five yards. So. That doesn't add up to what we watched this season.

• 1:01:19Speaker 02

  Listen, don't shoot the messenger. So that's all leading to with those theories out there. Is Matthew Stafford going to think that he's still trying to prove to people that he's the MVP? And if you remember, we talked about it earlier, last game against the Panthers, he had two interceptions. One of them was in the end zone, then another quick one the next drive. Then he had the fumble at the end of the game that ruined the game. I started looking at FanDuel, Matthew Stafford plus 130 for an interception might be some.

• 1:01:48Speaker 02

  If he's trying to force things, the weather's also not supposed to be great there. I looked into, because of the manifesto, I started looking into the weather in Carolina. AccuWeather says that a Bank of America Stadium 70s degrees, real feel 66% cloudy chance thunderstorms. It's gonna rain probably, second half of that game like it did the last time when he had that fumble.

• 1:02:08Bill Simmons?

  Is it Rico Dowdall time? Could he be doing the Marshawn Lynch beast mode versus the 2010 Saints?

• 1:02:13Speaker 01

  Amazing.

• 1:02:14Bill Simmons?

  Is that in play?

• 1:02:15Speaker 01

  You know what I want to parlay? I want to parlay that pick that Billy is describing. I'll see if FanDuel lets me do it.

• 1:02:21Bill Simmons?

  No, they don't let you parlay the picks.

• 1:02:24Speaker 01

  Oh, that's right. You can't parlay interceptions with anything.

• 1:02:26Bill Simmons?

  No, because I wanted to do the Bryce Young, I actually looked at the Bryce Young pick parlayed with the Matthew Stafford pick. I thought that this was a perfect, everybody throws a pick in this game game and you can't do it.

• 1:02:38Speaker 01

  Because I was gonna do it with Karen Williams over 64 and a half rushing yards. Because I think that McVay is going to try and protect Matthew Stafford from himself. And I think if the Rams get up by really, you know, any 10 points, then we're gonna see a ton of Blake Corum and Karen Williams touches in the second half. They're just gonna try and run the game out.

• 1:03:00Bill Simmons?

  I had another MVP wrinkle off Billy's MVP wrinkle. It is in play for Drake May and Matthew Stafford, the winning the MVP, but having a terrible round run playoff game and losing, and then they announce the MVP after, AKA the Dirk Nowitzki.

• 1:03:16Bill Simmons?

  You remember when that happened with our guy Dirk?

• 1:03:17Speaker 01

  Sure do.

• 1:03:18Bill Simmons?

  We love Dirk Nowitzki. Nothing was more awkward than the We Believe Warriors knocking Dirk out. And then Dirk was like, here's your MVP, hey, thanks.

• 1:03:27Bill Simmons?

  Also, David Tepper, what's he gonna be capable of in the luxury box? I think is an angle, is an angle. This much maligned over the years, David Tepper.

• 1:03:38Speaker 02

  What a crazy franchise.

• 1:03:39Speaker 01

  I don't want to make any jokes.

• 1:03:40Bill Simmons?

  They really are.

• 1:03:41Speaker 01

  He has too much money. I can't afford a defamation lawsuit.

• 1:03:44Bill Simmons?

  So if the Rams win, they go to Seattle for round two, unless Green Bay or San Francisco win. If you look at the nerd stuff, it's a massacre. The Rams had the ninth highest DVOA ever. Carolina was 25th offense DVOA and 22nd defense. EPA was just as bad. There's one thing that I thought was pretty interesting beyond what we mentioned. I looked at, I really dove into, I spent a lot of time in the picks this week, guys. I really like, after the 40 and 50, it was like a wake up call in a lot of ways. Aaron Schatz had a really interesting worst DVOA to make the playoffs from 1978 to 2025. And what happened with some of those teams on the list?

• 1:04:27Bill Simmons?

  So the worst team ever to make the playoffs since 1978 DVOA was the 8-8 2004 Rams. What happened around one? They won. They beat Seattle, who was four-point favorites. The second worst team ever was the 2010 Seahawks, who were 10-point underdogs against the Saints. They won. The next team was a strike season team, we're not counting them. 2016 Houston was the next full season team. Four-point underdogs in Oakland, they win by 14. And the fourth team was the 1998 Cardinals, seven-point underdogs against Dallas. They win. And then the fifth team was the Tim Tebow Denver Broncos, who won in overtime against Pittsburgh. A seven-and-a-half-point underdogs.

• 1:05:11Bill Simmons?

  So there's other people on the list. The point is, there is evidence that this kind of DVOA miracle would happen. The problem is, this would be pretty unusual from a point spread standpoint. This would be the biggest home dog that's ever covered a playoff game, basically.

• 1:05:29Speaker 02

  House, I saw this that you might be interested in if you believe that Kyron Williams is gonna kind of run all over them and it's a rainy day. So FanDuel has a game special, Kyron Williams and Rico Dowdell each having 50-plus rushing yards in each half, plus 40,000.

• 1:05:43Speaker 01

  In each half? So both guys go over 100? I mean, plus 40,000, that's, that's.

• 1:05:50Bill Simmons?

  Plus, I can't even, so it's $10, you win $400,000?

• 1:05:56Bill Simmons?

  A hundred dollars.

• 1:05:57Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:05:58Bill Simmons?

  Hundred dollars.

• 1:05:58Speaker 01

  Hundred and forty.

• 1:05:59Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I don't know. I can't.

• 1:06:01Speaker 01

  Hey, Matt.

• 1:06:03Bill Simmons?

  A hundred and four thousand. Is that what it is?

• 1:06:05Speaker 01

  Yeah, I guess.

• 1:06:06Bill Simmons?

  Yes. Now, if you're worried about your three, your 10-point teaser with the Rams, the last 20 times we had a straight up nine and a half, a nine and a half point and up favorite. 19 and one straight up against that. The only time the team didn't win was the 2019 Ravens, who lost to Mike Vrabel's Tennessee Titans, 20 to 12 as 10-point favorites. It's the only time since the Seahawks Saints game, and they weren't even home dogs. So.

• 1:06:36Speaker 01

  15 years.

• 1:06:38Bill Simmons?

  It's a long time.

• 1:06:39Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:06:40Bill Simmons?

  And we talked about a lot. There's a lot of manifesto for this one, including, nobody believes in us, the underdog, don't pick them unless you believe they can win, the cold, the warm weather team playing, or cold weather team, no dome team, playing in humid weather or cold weather, either one. Agent QB in weird weather.

• 1:07:02Bill Simmons?

  Is this the pick that screws over the most gamblers? Do you really want to put money on Bryce Young?

• 1:07:09Bill Simmons?

  The nerd evidence and then the quarterbacks. House, where are you sitting in this game?

• 1:07:14Speaker 01

  I'm gonna take 20 bucks. I'm gonna bet it on the Carolina Panthers money line, and I'm gonna kiss that 20 bucks goodbye, and that's it. That's the only bet I'm making on this stupid football game. There, you, you mentioned it, the, the DVOA unprecedented, the, the point they have the same differential as the New York Giants. But this team is 8-0 against the spread, the Carolina Panthers, after a loss. And all of their wins this season have come after a loss. Well, they lost last week.

• 1:07:50Bill Simmons?

  They've been a pretty good home team for the most part.

• 1:07:53Speaker 01

  Pretty good home team.

• 1:07:54Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:07:54Speaker 01

  This is the biggest point spread in the history of the NFL as a, as a, a, a home dog. I, I just don't have any appetite for messing with it. Like, what? You get out of this, it could go exactly the way a lot of us imagine, which is the Rams get in, they roll. But man, we watched the Rams these last three weeks. Have you really been blown away by anything you've seen out of the

• 1:08:17Bill Simmons?

  I haven't. I still think you can

• 1:08:19Speaker 01

  Three weeks.

• 1:08:20Bill Simmons?

  I think you can throw on them too.

• 1:08:21Speaker 01

  You definitely can.

• 1:08:23Bill Simmons?

  The Panthers got Koger back and T Mac. I don't, I really don't think the Packers, the Panthers are bad. The weather was really weird in that Tampa game. Weird stuff happened in general in that game, but I felt like they should have been moving the ball better in that game. The referees, they got boned over by every call.

• 1:08:43Bill Simmons?

  Couple of props I was looking at. Puka plus 370 to have the most receiving yards in round one. Bryce was minus 118 for a pick. And there's, if you just think the Rams are going to roll, you could do Puka 100 yards plus Adams TD, Rams 29 plus points. And Rams money is plus 427 house.

• 1:09:05Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 1:09:06Bill Simmons?

  So you don't have to deal with the spread. What do you like, Billy? What's your pick?

• 1:09:10Speaker 02

  I feel like the Panthers might get a backdoor cover here, but I don't see them winning the game. They just, there was a chance, there was a time where Bryce Young, like 11 of his 14 wins or something like that, all came on game winning drives. So it was like, he's a clutch guy, but his team has to have him be in a position to be clutch. And I just don't see it happening because I don't think that this is going to be like the last time where everything breaks their way. He had those fourth down conversions that you said, he had the long touchdowns when he needed to have them. It's a team that you've been able to throw on. I'd say the, I think since week 13, they're, they're towards the bottom of the league in defense on passes. Where earlier in the season, weeks one through 12, they were towards the top of the league. So you can throw on them, but I don't think

• 1:09:55Speaker 02

  that they're going to win the turnover battle plus three again, like they did last time. So it's just, it's a nice story, but, but the Rams I think are just too much for the Panthers.

• 1:10:07Bill Simmons?

  I think this is the one I'm probably punting on for Ringer 107. But for posterity in the eternal quest to go undefeated against the spread in the playoffs.

• 1:10:18Bill Simmons?

  We kind of have to make a pick house.

• 1:10:20Speaker 01

  Well, here's the thing, and Billy just described it to us. The Rams are up.

• 1:10:24Bill Simmons?

  The backdoor's in play.

• 1:10:25Speaker 01

  31-14. The Rams are up. They beat the crap out of Carolina all day long. They let Carolina score one touchdown in the first half. And one touchdown with six minutes left in the, in the fourth quarter. It's 31-14. Carolina gets the ball. And you and I both know exactly what happens when the line is 10 and a half points.

• 1:10:44Bill Simmons?

  The line, it feels like you're getting a flash sale on extra points for the Panthers. 10 and a half at home is insane. I mean, literally, we'd be making history with this as a whole, as a. Yeah, it's a, I'm probably slightly in for Panthers plus 10 and a half, but I think it's at a Ringer 107. But just for posterity. This was nine and a half. It's weird. If it was nine and a half, I'd probably like, fine, I'll take the Rams. But 10 and a half's like, you could be down 17 with two minutes left and cover. You know, and we know the Panthers can throw the ball when they're behind. We've watched them do it. So. I don't mind the Panthers. I didn't, I didn't think they were terrible. I, I felt worse about other playoff teams. All right, now let's get to the big boys.

• 1:11:28Bill Simmons?

  Packers, Bears, Saturday night.

• 1:11:32Bill Simmons?

  Narratives include the Green Bay owns the Bears just perennially. Bears trying to shed that. There's some nobody believes in us with the Bears. There's some Michael Parsons ewing theory going on with the Packers. There's some major luck shit going on with the Bears being the luckiest team in the league. The Bear, the Packers had multiple games when like they didn't punt but lost, which usually doesn't happen. What's your biggest angle for this one, Billy?

• 1:11:57Speaker 02

  I have two for this one also.

• 1:11:58Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 1:11:59Speaker 02

  All right. First storyline to watch. Matt LaFleur versus Ben Johnson.

• 1:12:05Bill Simmons?

  Have that written down as well.

• 1:12:06Speaker 02

  Maybe rivalry because at the moment.

• 1:12:09Bill Simmons?

  A little testy.

• 1:12:09Speaker 02

  At the moment, it's a very one-sided rivalry in favor of Ben Johnson, who seems to be trying to make this a rivalry. And Matt LaFleur, who is not paying attention to him whatsoever in terms of like, this is a rivalry. So it starts with Ben Johnson introductory press conference. They ask him, one of the reasons you came here, whatever. And he throws out there, I like beating Matt LaFleur twice a year. So then Matt LaFleur goes on a podcast, he goes on busting with the boys and they ask him like, hey, what'd you make of those comments that Ben Johnson said? And he said, I don't really know Ben Johnson, so there's no beef whatsoever. So he kind of like, it's saying.

• 1:12:46Bill Simmons?

  It's a diffusing.

• 1:12:47Speaker 02

  It diffusing, but also at the same time escalating like, I don't know who this person is, but I'm going to take the higher ground here and pretend that I am not aware of Ben Johnson. Which is crazy.

• 1:12:57Bill Simmons?

  Basically like, he's basically like, I don't want to punch down.

• 1:13:00Speaker 02

  Yeah, exactly.

• 1:13:01Bill Simmons?

  In its own way, it's insulting.

• 1:13:01Speaker 02

  Yeah, exactly. So it's like a very, exactly, very backhanded, like, I'm not getting into this, I'm Matt LaFleur. So that's kind of the last we hear of it until they play each other where they have two very quick, like frosty exchanges after each game was very brief. There was nothing very welcoming there. There was nothing that you felt like, okay, these are guys that like, respect each other, have respect for each other, right? And then that seemingly end of it, unless you want to read between the lines and you want to read into comments that weren't directed directly at Matt LaFleur, which was Ben Johnson. So Ben Johnson, in the post-game press conference after week 18, he was asked like, why did you have your starters out there? Cause you look at teams like the Eagles who rested their starters, you look at the Packers who rested the starters.

• 1:13:46Speaker 02

  Now, the Packers had reason for resting their starters, they were pretty much locked in at seven. And also the Packers last year had injuries in week 18 against the Bears. So they said, you know what, we're not going to mess around with this again, we're just going to rest.

• 1:13:57Bill Simmons?

  They're banged up anyway.

• 1:13:58Speaker 02

  Exactly, Mike is out, Jordan gets now an extra week of rest headed into the playoffs. So like, it benefits them to rest their players. However, Ben Johnson is, you know, one of the young and up and coming, rough football guys from the world of Dan Campbell. And when they ask him like, why'd you play your starters here? He said, we play football.

• 1:14:20Speaker 02

  Is that a backhanded comp, is that a backhanded message over towards Matt LaFleur saying, you know what, you're, you're not taking every advantage here playing football, you're not respecting the game, you're not playing the full 18, 18 weeks of the season, you're backing out. That's not us. We play football, come hell or high water.

• 1:14:36Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that feels like a fuck you house.

• 1:14:38Speaker 01

  I, I, I mean, on the one hand, I love it. It also will be hilarious if LaFleur, you know, if Green Bay wins and, and, and immediately, well, he wouldn't do it because that, that would be evidence of beefing down, but we, you know, he, if he slipped in there, we played football today. That would really just be, that would take it next level.

• 1:14:58Bill Simmons?

  Really smart for him to play it the way he played it because he got the extra week to just prepare for the Bears, right? Although the Eagles almost screwed that up by that whole beer, that whole thing. He could have been preparing for the Bears for a week and then all of a sudden they're playing the Eagles anyway. Um, I didn't mind it though, especially when you have a QB coming off a concussion. They've had some offensive line injuries, like, let's be ready for this one. What's the other angle you had, Billy?

• 1:15:25Speaker 02

  Well, and on that one, real quick, another thing that you can watch for in the postgame press conference, we talked about it with Shield this week on the Ringer NFL Show. So this game, because they split and now they're, they're facing off in the playoffs, it has set up a situation where either coach in the postgame press conference can say, I like beating the other team twice a year. So they can bring it back and now there's three games, so it's not undefeated, but either Ben Johnson or Matt LaFleur can come out and send a message to the other one saying, I like beating Ben Johnson twice a year. I like beating Matt LaFleur twice a year. So that's still in play if you want to watch after the game.

• 1:15:59Bill Simmons?

  Wait, wait, hold on one thing on that. If Dobbs catches the onside kick, that means the Packers beat the Bears twice this season. And then we move into the land of it's so hard to beat a team three times in one year.

• 1:16:13Bill Simmons?

  Did Dobbs intentionally miss the onside because they knew they'd be playing each other again? I don't, who knows? Who knows? Did they tell him? It's much easier to go this route.

• 1:16:21Speaker 02

  It's also one of those things.

• 1:16:22Bill Simmons?

  It is easier though for them now. It makes more sense that they would win the playoff game.

• 1:16:26Speaker 02

  You also then like show them, like you give them this false sense of confidence, like, look, we beat them during the regular season. Maybe then you go to overtime. So you see them kind of whip out some tricks that maybe they weren't planning on showing you. So now you may have an advantage and may, maybe giving them that game if you look back, who knows?

• 1:16:42Bill Simmons?

  It, they stumbled into an advantage, was not their intention, but I think it's better that they lost that game. What's your next angle?

• 1:16:49Speaker 02

  All right. Here's another angle. There's a battle presently going on. I don't know if you know this of foam heads. So obviously everybody knows about the cheese heads that the Packers wear. I don't know if you caught on to this, but after the game winning touchdown, DJ Moore wore a cheese grater head. And he was celebrating the game with a cheese grater head. And the Bears, the Bears have since been wearing cheese grater heads now. We've done, we've done some research into this situation. Here's the deal. Okay. Those cheese grater heads were made by a company called Foam Party Hats. And Foam Party Hats initially was making cheese heads. Until the Packers sent them a cease and desist and told them, you need to stop making cheese heads in 2024-ish.

• 1:17:32Speaker 02

  So to respond to the cease and desist, they said, we are now going to make cheese grater heads. And now that is why they've made these heads and they didn't really catch on at first, but now since that game winning touchdown, DJ Moore wearing it. Now these hats are becoming a thing that you'll see out there. And it's all because of a cease and desist that the Packers sent to a company that was at one time supporting them.

• 1:17:53Bill Simmons?

  And this is all leading to the Packers winning and somebody in the Packers taking the cheese grater head and doing this.

• 1:18:00Speaker 02

  Mm hmm.

• 1:18:01Bill Simmons?

  I think that's what you just laid out is great for the Packers house.

• 1:18:05Speaker 02

  I couldn't agree more. I, I love.

• 1:18:06Bill Simmons?

  That's, that's like just chalkboard shit.

• 1:18:08Speaker 02

  Exactly.

• 1:18:09Bill Simmons?

  You're actually making cheese grater hats? Fuck you.

• 1:18:12Speaker 02

  Right. Who are you? You're the Bears. What are you doing?

• 1:18:15Bill Simmons?

  There's another thing here, Billy, that you didn't mention.

• 1:18:18Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 1:18:19Bill Simmons?

  Bears kind of felt like, uh, it felt a little cheap shot in that love hit that knocked love and the, that concussed them and the multiple Packers have mentioned it.

• 1:18:28Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:18:29Bill Simmons?

  That they didn't like the hit. So you got that one too. There's some chalkboard material all over the place here.

• 1:18:35Speaker 02

  So you think maybe there's a, maybe there's a little late. Oh, we didn't hear the whistle on Caleb Williams possibly here?

• 1:18:40Bill Simmons?

  Very possible. From the nerd stats, the, the most appalling thing, Packers finished 19th defensively in DVOA. And EPA 21 past 19 runs. So their defense hasn't been great, but they've also been banged up. The Bears have been just bad on defense as we discussed. Chicago's three wins, they beat Green Bay and OT on the onside kick game. They beat Pittsburgh by three and they beat Philly by nine. Those were their best three wins. And as many people have mentioned, they easily could have been seven and 10 this year if you just switched the luck a little bit.

• 1:19:18Bill Simmons?

  There's only three manifesto games here or rules here. The discount first five to six weeks of the season, which is when the Packers look pretty unstoppable. Don't dismiss the nerd evidence. So the Bears thing, it's an issue. The, the head coach's rule, number 15. We talked about, is there a coach that you're worried about? Why don't we have like a clapper this year? There's some Matt LaFleur stuff that's out there. There's some Matt LaFleur detractors. There's some Packer fans who are like, not sure about this guy. There's been some up and down stuff with him. There's some people are like, look at his record. He's been successful every year. He's made it work with every QB.

• 1:20:01Bill Simmons?

  And there's been some other people who are like, what does he want? What about this game? What about that game? So it's just warrants mentioning that there's a blueprint here of Packers dominate the game. Bears get their two fucking lucky plays, however those happen. LaFleur screws up something. That's what worries me because fellas, I love the Green Bay Packers in this game. And this is the first lock for me. Packers minus one and a half in Chicago. I just think they're better and I think they're going to be able to throw all over the Bears. And I think you can. We saw San Francisco move the ball. Would they score five straight touchdowns in that Bears game?

• 1:20:37Bill Simmons?

  I just think they're going to be able to move the ball up and down the field on them. And, and I watched both of the games they played. I thought the Packers, I just think they're better. And if the Bears win this game, it will be a fucking voodoo game. So that's where I stand. Where do you stand, House?

• 1:20:52Speaker 01

  I don't like um the strategy that they used last week of playing everybody and trying to win that Lions game.

• 1:21:00Bill Simmons?

  And putting the miles on themselves and losing anyway.

• 1:21:03Speaker 02

  They lost. That's the worst part.

• 1:21:04Bill Simmons?

  The worst part is they lost.

• 1:21:06Speaker 01

  That that defense was on the field for for 70 plays, over 70 plays, like uh their bye week was week five. Like it's time to rest, like this time of the season. So there is already a strategy advantage that I think that Green Bay has and and you know, I think this factors into the little floor Johnson assessment like one guy has been here before. Now, he did have to learn the hard way, right? He played his guys in week 18 last season and they came in. They still gave Philadelphia everything Philly wanted in Philadelphia in round one, even with the injuries that they suffered.

• 1:21:45Speaker 01

  But you know, I think very quietly, um they're coming in here very prepared, not intimidated one bit, um ready to kind of establish their their version, their game script here um at the at the very outset of this. The the um counter will be the Bears' ability to establish the run. The run has been their bread and butter.

• 1:22:07Bill Simmons?

  Can they run the ball down the Packers' throat?

• 1:22:09Speaker 01

  That's exactly right.

• 1:22:10Bill Simmons?

  Jacobs, you always talk about Jacobs when he's healthy. And it's it seems like they got Jacobs pretty healthy for January, and I think they can run the ball on the Bears. I just think they would be able to move the ball on the Bears, and I'm always going to take that. I actually like the Packers in a tease just as much to plus four and a half, but for the purpose of this, we'll go minus one. Now, Billy, what do you have in this game?

• 1:22:32Speaker 02

  I think I have the Packers winning this one also. I feel like you mentioned the fact that the Bears had their bye in week five. The Packers also had their bye in week five, and I think that you were talking about the coaching and LaFleur. LaFleur may have shown us kind of the advantage in coaching a longer period of time by saying, you know what? We haven't had, and it was not even in this game, it was last week. We haven't had rest since week five. We're already locked in. Let's get our guys healthy because there's nothing we can really do here but hurt ourselves. So let's go into this as healthy as possible, as rested as possible, where you know, the Bears are going into it and they're just kind of wanting Ben Johnson wanted to prove himself in the league. He plays everyone when he already had the two seed, didn't realize, I guess, that the Eagles had,

• 1:23:13Speaker 02

  you know, forfeited essentially the two seed. He could have looked up at any point in time and realized what was going on and that they were safe with the two seed anyways and rested his guys, but that's not what happened. So they're lucky that they didn't get anybody hurt and they're going in at full strength, but I feel like the fact that the Packers got that extra week of rest, they gave themselves a bye headed into the playoffs is gonna be beneficial because I mean, both games that they played, they've played this, what, the third time in like six weeks that they've played each other. They know each other. Both games were very close. So I think that health might be what the advantage is in this situation. And that's where the Packers kind of have the advantage, the upper hand.

• 1:23:52Bill Simmons?

  There's one of my favorite theories in play two here, House.

• 1:23:58Bill Simmons?

  The Bears, when was the last like really important Bears playoff game?

• 1:24:03Bill Simmons?

  The crowds going, it's a, it's a Saturday night.

• 1:24:08Bill Simmons?

  Most important bear for a lot of people, people bringing their kids who were 13, who have never been to a huge Bears game, people flying into Chicago. And sometimes if you can punch those teams in the mouth early, that crowd gets like super shell shocked. On the flip side, if it goes well for the Bears right away, it becomes like the most festive fucking crazy atmosphere. So I, whatever the, I almost feel like the first quarter, you're gonna know whoever you picked, you're thinking like, oh, man, I can't, it's gonna be one of those. You'll know in the first half hour with this game, I think.

• 1:24:40Speaker 02

  The weird thing about those two games is that both, like, they ended up being great games, but both first halves kind of sucked. So one, week 14 is 7-3 at halftime, week 16, it was 6-0 at halftime. Like, they were both not good games at the beginning and then turned into great ones in the second half.

• 1:24:55Bill Simmons?

  The Bears did that a few times this year where they, they just limp along offensively for two plus hours. I do, the burden piece is, I think, a fun wrinkle for this because he really was good in that week 17 game against the Niners. And kind of, and Collinsworth is making it seem like he knew this was coming for weeks, but it was really like his breakout game. But if they can get a Dunze back and have actually some weapons, but I, I like the Packers. Well, this next one is my favorite of the six on the board, Bills, Jags. I've tipped this off a couple of times this week. I love the Jaguars in this game. I can't believe they're not favored. Like, I literally can't believe it. We did DVOA, their third. They've have some really nice wins, including beat Houston by seven, beat the Chargers by 29,

• 1:25:39Bill Simmons?

  won in Denver by 14, killed Carolina, beat San Francisco by five. Buffalo's big wins are the Pats where they came back from 21 down and won by four and then they they killed Pittsburgh and that was it. They had as easy of a schedule as a as the Patriots did. Mildly warm weather, which I think we have to mention. We don't know if Josh Allen's completely healthy. We don't know if we trust the Bills kicker at all. Bills defense last two months gave up 30 to Billy's Miami Dolphins, 32 to Tampa, 34 to Cincinnati, 31 to the Pats. And most important, the Jags have won eight straight and they beat Denver and they they really whooped Denver and the and the Chargers, did 30 first downs in that Chargers game.

• 1:26:25Bill Simmons?

  I don't get it. What am I missing, Billy?

• 1:26:28Speaker 02

  All right. So here is my storyline for this game. Does Trevor Lawrence pull the classic Royal Rumble move where he's just been forgotten essentially, sneak back into the conversation and win a playoff game? Because everybody's painting this game as, look, there's now a clear path. There's no roadblocks for Josh Allen. Mahomes is out. Lamar Jackson is out. There's no Joe Burrow. There's only one stadium that Josh Allen hasn't played in his career. It's Levi's Stadium. Is this his path? Is Super Bowl a destiny for Josh Allen this season? And we've completely forgotten about Trevor Lawrence. Trevor Lawrence comes into the league and he's viewed as this is a generational quarterback. This is the best quarterback

• 1:27:11Speaker 02

  we've seen since Andrew Luck, who was the best quarterback we'd seen, you know, since Peyton Manning. And then he goes and he has the first season where he has like a bad season, but that's Urban Meyer. So there's an asterisk for Trevor Lawrence on his first season.

• 1:27:23Bill Simmons?

  Big fat asterisk.

• 1:27:24Speaker 02

  Second season, nine and eight, wins five straight games, goes to the playoffs. They're losing that game the entire time.

• 1:27:32Bill Simmons?

  The Chargers game.

• 1:27:33Speaker 02

  An absolute collapse by the Chargers. So he wins that game. Next season, Trevor Lawrence, okay, this is the year that Trevor Lawrence, he arrived last season, he took his team to playoffs, gets that playoff win. This is the season that he takes that next step. Eight and eight season, five straight losses to end the year. They missed the playoffs. Then he gets injured last year. This season starts out five and four. So you're kind of like, you know what? This, this may not actually happen for Trevor Lawrence.

• 1:28:02Bill Simmons?

  Oh, we, we were on this podcast. I was out, done.

• 1:28:07Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 1:28:07Bill Simmons?

  Cause he, cause when you blow two in a row, this is the years, I'm out.

• 1:28:11Speaker 02

  That, that, it seemed like he, he, okay. So him and Josh Allen were kind of opposite, right? Where Josh Allen came in, he's the number seven pick. His team is booing him. The fans are booing the draft pick. He has a complete disaster first season in terms of turnovers. Then Brian Dable fixes him and then all of a sudden he makes his way up to like top one, tier one or tier two of quarterbacks. And then he's in the discussion. Then it becomes a question of like, well, when is he going to finally win the big one? When is he going to get over that hump? When can he beat the Chiefs? And then he wins the MVP. So we kind of like give him a pass. So it's like, okay, well Josh Allen's there. Now he has a clear field. So now the pressure's on Josh Allen. Trevor Lawrence is that, is that rest that goes in? He leaves five minutes into the Royal Rumble. He's laying outside by the announcer's booth.

• 1:28:53Speaker 02

  He's forgotten. He's hiding under the ring. No one remembers that Trevor Lawrence is even there.

• 1:28:58Bill Simmons?

  Ring. I like that.

• 1:28:58Speaker 02

  Yeah. Yeah. He's pulling a horn swaggle.

• 1:29:00Bill Simmons?

  Did he get knocked out? I don't even remember. No, he's still there.

• 1:29:03Speaker 02

  He's, he's, it's a Jericho. You forget that he's even still in the match until there's like three people left. All of a sudden he slides right back into the conversation. That's where Trevor Lawrence is. Cause you were saying, like you were out on him earlier this year. On the NFL show with Sheel, we were talking about, do these quarterbacks have it? Like, are these quarterbacks, like, these are just not good quarterbacks? And the number one conversation that we had is, are these good quarterbacks? Was Trevor Lawrence. And since we had that conversation.

• 1:29:28Bill Simmons?

  I remember I listened to that in New York City in November and I felt like that was the same Trevor Lawrence conversation for two years. Does he have it? What's going on here?

• 1:29:37Speaker 02

  Then he went on an eight game win streak and he shut us up very quickly.

• 1:29:40Bill Simmons?

  Put a fire under him.

• 1:29:41Speaker 02

  Yeah. But everyone again has forgotten Trevor Lawrence in the conversation of next round of quarterbacks. And now there's a new batch of young quarterbacks who are there. And Trevor Lawrence is existing in this nice world where there doesn't seem to be any pressure on him whatsoever. And I wonder if now this is when he thrives.

• 1:29:58Bill Simmons?

  You know who hasn't forgotten about him? His teammates.

• 1:30:02Speaker 01

  Hmm.

• 1:30:03Bill Simmons?

  Did you see the diamond grill video?

• 1:30:05Speaker 01

  I did see the grill that they gave him.

• 1:30:07Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it's weird because I always was like, he seems like a kind of a strange teammate, but his teammates are all in. I've watched him. I've studied him in the post-game win videos when they, the coach turns it over to the QB. It really does seem like he's emerged. House, he's 10, 10 touchdowns, three, no, zero interceptions his last three home games. They've won eight straight. He killed Denver in Denver. That was when I gave up. I was like, this guy's good. Denver's a good team. He went in there and he rammed it up their butthole. House, what are your Trevor Lawrence's thoughts?

• 1:30:38Speaker 01

  Um, well, you, you, you hit on one of the key aspects to this. Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars have been very good at home this year. This is a good home team.

• 1:30:50Bill Simmons?

  And they have a good crowd.

• 1:30:52Speaker 01

  Good crowd. They, they have three wins over playoff teams as well as good wins over the Chiefs early in the season, and I would say a good win over the Colts, um, who they kind of own in Jacksonville.

• 1:31:04Bill Simmons?

  You mentioned that. Yeah, they beat, they beat KC in Indiana, Indianapolis, when those teams were actually good. And those don't get counted in the playoff wins, but they were playoff wins at the time. So they've had seven really good wins.

• 1:31:15Speaker 01

  And, and, um, you know, by contra distinction, this is the splits between Buffalo at home and Buffalo on the road are stark. Uh, and so I, I just feel like, you know, I, I can see that Jacksonville crowd. I can see, um, you know, the, the, the symbiosis between, um, Leon Cohen and Trevor Lawrence, you know, they, they finally are at a spot where they're speaking the same love language. They understand, you know, how to tickle each other. And it's been very successful. The, the thing we'll see, um, is their ability to establish the run and especially establish the run outside. That's been, uh, Buffalo's bugaboo all season long, but, um, I just love the idea of the Jets.

• 1:32:00Bill Simmons?

  Are that good? I, I don't get it. It's basically Josh.

• 1:32:04Speaker 01

  Just Josh.

• 1:32:05Bill Simmons?

  Some duct tape and some thumbtacks and some glue.

• 1:32:07Speaker 01

  Cook. I mean, James Cook, that's the interesting, yeah. The run game, the run game.

• 1:32:11Bill Simmons?

  But I'm saying, we've seen over and over again, they've come behind, they've fallen behind and then Josh brings them back, which, which was what happened in the second Pats game. Yeah, James Cook's really good.

• 1:32:22Speaker 02

  Can Trevor Lawrence?

• 1:32:22Bill Simmons?

  Jacksonville can take James Cook out, so it'll come down to a Josh thing again.

• 1:32:26Speaker 02

  Well, I think that they have what? They have like one of the league's best rushing defenses. So it's the best rushing against the best rushing defense. It's a classic, something's got to give game here, you know? What do you think that Trevor Lawrence can lose a week where he's gifted grills by his teammates? And then randomly shows up at a fan bar and is squatted by fans who put him over their shoulder?

• 1:32:48Bill Simmons?

  I would say no. I think this, House and I are old. I've just seen this too many times now. This is why I think round two is going to be Jacksonville, New England to make the Super Bowl. I just think they have the look. They've hit every checkpoint. They're home, they're somehow underdogs. There's no, there's no world where this should be Bills by one and a half. Like if you gave me, I think this line should be like Jacksonville by two and a half. From manifesto, nobody believes in us. They got that. They got the cold weather team playing in humid weather. They have the nerd evidence and they have the home field advantage. And Buffalo, the only thing you would point to them is like Trevor Lawrence is going to turn into a pumpkin. He's been waiting to do this to you for nine weeks. Don't trust him. But I kind of trust him after the Denver game.

• 1:33:33Bill Simmons?

  I thought he answered all the questions. I have a prop for you. ETN 60 plus rushing yards, Tooten 20 plus rushing yards, Lawrence 20 plus rushing yards, Jags plus one and a half, plus 458, House. Just back in the old Jags run the ball a little bit. Cause I think they have to run the ball on the Bills.

• 1:33:53Speaker 01

  Yeah, I want, I want to get in on that. So send it to me.

• 1:33:56Bill Simmons?

  And also the, if you think Buffalo is going to win this game, the South special is in play.

• 1:34:03Bill Simmons?

  Jags winning the first half, Buffalo winning the game. Big Josh Allen comeback. That's plus 650, Billy. I love the Jags plus one and a half. I love the Jags and any tees. House and I, I promise you, will be teasing the Jaguars and the Packers this weekend. I already know it. I know we're going to text about it. Billy, who do you have?

• 1:34:22Speaker 02

  I have the Jaguars winning also. I feel like there's, they have the momentum. Trevor Lawrence has no one paying attention to him. I feel like they're going to establish the run with ETN. I mean, his over 15 and a half rushing attempts is plus 110 if you want to take him. The Bills have a good, they have a good pass defense. So they're probably going to want to establish a run against the Bills. I feel like. You know, maybe weather comes into play. Maybe it gets a little wet here, but I think that the Jaguars kind of pull this one out.

• 1:34:46Bill Simmons?

  And we did mention the other coach that is a little gamey for these playoffs, Sean McDermott.

• 1:34:51Speaker 02

  He seems to sneak by every year.

• 1:34:53Bill Simmons?

  Every year. And every year, it's like stuff that I never feel great about. I thought I was out on this Bills team as a playoff threat when they had the Brandon Cooks variable and that, what was that, the Eagles game when Brandon Cooks made the big play? And I was like, Brandon Cooks is on the Bills? I had no idea. We've reached that point of the receiver season for these guys? It's like, Kian Coleman's a healthy scratch. I just don't think, I think the Jags can get explosive plays. I think they can run the ball and I think their defense is good. They're gonna be fired up and nobody believes in them. We're gonna take one more break. We'll do the other three games. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. Excitement is in the air. That's right. It's the start of NBA season. I can't wait to get together with friends, share some Michelob Ultras and watch Tip Off. Plus, as the official beer sponsor of the NBA,

• 1:35:38Bill Simmons?

  Michelob Ultra is getting you closer to the action with the experiences that make you feel like you're courtside to actual courtside tickets. Enter now for a chance to win at michelobultra.com/courtside. Michelob Ultra Courtside 26 to 27. No purchase necessary. Opening U.S. residents 21+ Begins on October 1st, 2026. Ends on June 30th, 2027. Multiple entry periods. See official rules at michelobultra.com/courtside for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes and details. All right, quick break. This episode is brought to you by Fire TV. You ever sit down, ready to watch the game, only to search and scroll endlessly? If so, you need Fire TV. It shows you are live games from your favorite teams all in one place, right on the home screen. No more searching. Just sit down and turn on Fire TV.

• 1:36:21Bill Simmons?

  Separate subscriptions may be required. Feature and content availability may vary.

• 1:36:28Bill Simmons?

  Eagles minus four and a half, 49ers is our next game. This is a Saturday afternooner. It's probably gonna be cold.

• 1:36:38Bill Simmons?

  The nerd stats do not like San Francisco's defense. I don't like San Francisco's defense. They lost their two best players. They patched stuff together. Now they've lost all their linebackers. They got run up and down the field by the Bears. And then that Seahawks game in week 17 felt like that could have been a more of a blowout than it was. Sam Darnold had other ideas. San Francisco's last 10 games, they've averaged 27.5 points a game, even with the stinker against Seattle. Philly's last nine games is 19 points a game. Philly's laying four and a half in this.

• 1:37:17Bill Simmons?

  The only case I can think of for Philly here is that it's hard for them to score points and it's easier for San Francisco to score points. And if you just do the points, this will be in the 20s and it'll be close and take the points. Billy, I don't want to take the points, but what's your angle?

• 1:37:34Speaker 02

  I have three storylines to watch in this one. First storyline to watch is the fix in. So if you start looking at this game, do you want the Eagles to go on a deep run here? Do you want a potential situation where you have an established team in the Super Bowl? We talked about there aren't really named brands. If you're buying into the fact that the fix may be in in any games in this playoffs, it might be this one where the head official assigned to this game is Alan Eck. So Alan Eck has been an official in the NFL since 2016. He wears number 76. That's not important, but he grew up in Williamsport, PA, allegedly grew up an Eagles fan. And in games that he's officiated, the Eagles have an eight and one record where the 49ers have a three and six record.

• 1:38:16Bill Simmons?

  Oh, wow.

• 1:38:16Speaker 02

  Will there be home cooking with this officiating crew?

• 1:38:19Bill Simmons?

  I like it. This is good. Good start. Strengthens our Eagles case. What do you got next?

• 1:38:26Speaker 02

  All right. What's the expiration date on a revenge game? Because a lot that's being talked about in this game is going back to the NFC championship game a couple of years ago, which ended up being a disastrous game where Brock Purdy goes out, Josh Johnson goes out.

• 1:38:40Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that's and also like, was it the Eagles' fault that their guys got hurt? It's.

• 1:38:45Speaker 02

  I mean, the 49ers fans seems to be holding this against the Eagles for all of these years, but. Can you have a revenge game if the first game is an NFC championship game and the second one is a wild card weekend round? Like, I feel like this is not fitting of the title of revenge game, but both fanbases are trying to make this a thing, it seems.

• 1:39:06Speaker 01

  That's dumb. I don't agree with it. The Eagles defense, like, look at the personnel. It's basically 100% different.

• 1:39:14Bill Simmons?

  Well, and it's also 100%. Is anybody hurt on Philly's defense anymore?

• 1:39:20Bill Simmons?

  Isn't, aren't they healthy and coming and ready to roll?

• 1:39:23Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 1:39:25Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, this is, what's the third angle, Billy?

• 1:39:28Speaker 02

  All right, here's a storyline that you should watch that has come out, a report that came out this week that you might want to look into. It doesn't affect this game because it's in Philadelphia. However, there has been a study into this electrical substation outside of Levi's Stadium.

• 1:39:43Bill Simmons?

  We read, we read this. That's incredible.

• 1:39:46Speaker 02

  So keep an eye on that situation because that is something that could play out in the Super Bowl because it's in Levi's Stadium. And it could be an explanation for why it is that the 49ers have been getting so hurt. You have a guy who's the founder of something called Sunlight is Life, which is described as a platform for transforming your relationship with light for maximum impact on health. And he went out there with something called a gauss meter and he started taking readings at the practice field where he said the reading is 8.5 milligouses when the average is somewhere in, I think, like the 0.3 to 5 range. Then he went and he went to like the weight room and the milligouses were somewhere in the 10 to 25 range.

• 1:40:27Bill Simmons?

  Then they were telling them to leave. They started to get testy with them.

• 1:40:30Speaker 02

  Well, I start wondering why. They figured out the situation. There's a lot of milligouses going on apparently near Levi's Stadium. Apparently because of the fact that there's this substation right next to the stadium, there's an increased exposure to chronic ELF and that ends up affecting cartilages and can lead to ruptures. So the explanation for why it is that the 49ers have been so hurt over the years and why people get hurt at Levi's Stadium, some people have said it's probably the turf, it's probably the playing surface, but no, it might be this substation that's right across the street from Levi's Stadium.

• 1:41:05Bill Simmons?

  Well, you undersold. They have, what was it? They had like way more tendon injuries than everybody else the last 10 years?

• 1:41:12Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:41:13Bill Simmons?

  Like a much, like a kind of aberration type of number.

• 1:41:16Speaker 02

  It's tendons, ligaments, all of, and Achilles, all of those injuries. It's way higher than the average, not just with them, but with visiting teams coming and getting hurt. It's something that should be considered. Maybe not for this game because it's a road game, but

• 1:41:29Bill Simmons?

  Oh.

• 1:41:30Speaker 02

  Someone needs to look into this situation.

• 1:41:32Bill Simmons?

  Don't worry. I had it down as, as one of the manifesto rules that apply to this game. Rule number five, beware of any team that could use a notable off-field distraction or tragedy as a galvanizing force. Could it be the Niners, like a, like a Norma Rae or Silkwood situation? The work proletariat rising up to protest the ELM bands them together? I don't know.

• 1:41:54Speaker 02

  We found it. We thought that it didn't exist, but we found the rallying cry.

• 1:41:57Bill Simmons?

  They be like, they refuse to play in round two if they don't fix the electromagnetic force? That's endangering their tenants? I thought that was the weirdest story of the year. The year's only eight days old. The other one was the Ashley Tisdale mom group, toxic mom group story.

• 1:42:12Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:42:12Bill Simmons?

  I don't know if you followed that one.

• 1:42:14Speaker 02

  Of course.

• 1:42:15Bill Simmons?

  Then the people in the mom group came flying back at her.

• 1:42:17Speaker 01

  I don't know this one.

• 1:42:18Bill Simmons?

  You didn't follow this one?

• 1:42:19Speaker 01

  I don't know this one.

• 1:42:19Bill Simmons?

  Ashley Tisdale wrote an essay about her toxic mom group that shut her out and excluded her and how mean everybody was. And then the mom group started lobbing shots back. And this was my wife's Super Bowl. I have the NFL playoffs. My wife had this.

• 1:42:35Speaker 02

  Hillary Duff's husband was then like subtweeting her, basically like taking pictures, like the picture that she put in her essay. And then they started bringing in like seemingly non-celebrity moms in this mom group and putting out pictures of their whole family. Like, look at this person. This is who this is. You should hate them. It's very weird. It's very weird. And here's the thing about Ashley Tisdale, uh, that I think she's gonna learn. And I am not, my wife is not part of any celebrity mom groups, but

• 1:43:01Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:43:02Speaker 02

  Something that she'll learn, normal mom groups, normal dad groups, exactly the same and exactly as toxic as celebrity mom and dad groups is what you're gonna find.

• 1:43:10Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, don't exclude us.

• 1:43:12Speaker 02

  Nothing has anything, celebrity has nothing to do with it. There are toxic people in all of these parent groups. You're not gonna escape it.

• 1:43:19Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it's the moms spend more time talking about the other moms in the group than their own kids. I can't believe that she had that party and didn't invite blank. And then that's just like three days of texts and arguments and yeah, it is. It's never really been captured in a TV show. I've never seen it captured correctly, like in an HBO. The whole mom group concept.

• 1:43:43Speaker 02

  You think that's the angle?

• 1:43:45Bill Simmons?

  I, I don't think it's enough. That's probably why it hasn't been captured, but I guess the closest was Big Little Lies. Got into it a little bit with the Nicole Kidman show with. Got into some of it, but not in the way. Maybe Ashley, maybe this will be a TV show, the Ashley Tisdale.

• 1:43:58Speaker 02

  I mean, it's the premise of like every Housewives though, like no scripted show, I guess.

• 1:44:03Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, the reality.

• 1:44:03Speaker 02

  Yeah. Every Housewives, The Mormon Wives on Hulu, like all of those really capture the essence of this story.

• 1:44:09Bill Simmons?

  Well, the problem with the mom groups, the dad groups, we're just, we're just meaner. We'll cut people out. The mom groups. Once people in, they kind of, they're in for life.

• 1:44:18Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:44:18Bill Simmons?

  And once you get added to the text chain, you can't get out of that.

• 1:44:22Speaker 01

  Well, it's because there's always an ally. There's always a.

• 1:44:24Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they always have the one. Yeah.

• 1:44:25Speaker 01

  They always have one.

• 1:44:26Bill Simmons?

  We saw this in college. We had these, these groups of giant 16 person girl groups. And then there were all these little rivalries and things going on in the middle of it.

• 1:44:35Speaker 02

  You also have like the private allies that won't speak out publicly. And then you're like, what are you doing? Like you're on my side. What's happening here? Why don't you stand up for me here?

• 1:44:43Bill Simmons?

  That's House. Yeah. House never stands up for anybody.

• 1:44:47Speaker 01

  How dare you?

• 1:44:48Bill Simmons?

  Manifest House, any, any angles for you before I go into the manifesto for this?

• 1:44:53Speaker 01

  No, we covered.

• 1:44:54Bill Simmons?

  Eagles, that's all right.

• 1:44:56Speaker 01

  Go ahead. You're going to make the pick.

• 1:44:58Bill Simmons?

  Well, nobody believes in us is in play for the Niners. We mentioned the galvanizing force. Never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe it has a chance to win. This is a big one. Rule number 14, the law of Lombardi, bad offensive lines don't travel. Doesn't look like Trent Williams in this game for the Niners. And if I knew he was playing, I would be more excited about Rams plus four and a half. I also don't love how McCaffrey looked the last couple of weeks with the back stuff. Ricky Pierceall might not play. We talked about all the defensive, but I just don't think. I just feel like sometimes in football, you can pass the point of no return with injuries. And I feel like we're there with the Niners and I wish they were healthier because I would love to go against this Eagles team. Coaching stuff we talked about, home field advantage we talked about.

• 1:45:44Bill Simmons?

  There's a parlay possibility for Ringer 107 house with Eagles money and either under 51 and a half or over 37 and a half. Do you have a strong feel on over under in this? Cause we know Eagles methodical. Nick Sirianni does the thing. He tries to limit the amount of minutes in the game because he feels like he has a better team. But does the under 51 and a half intrigue you at all?

• 1:46:06Speaker 01

  Well, I already bet the under. It opened at 46. It's down to 44 and a half. I bet it again. I think this is a classic Philadelphia Eagles strangle a team and we just watched this football team, uh, this football game. It was the Seattle Seahawks in San Francisco, winning 13 to three. As soon as this Eagles team gets to 10 points or 13 points or 16 points, the game is over.

• 1:46:33Bill Simmons?

  They go into the four corners. Do you like that Billy Eagles money line with under 51 and a half? And then we don't have to worry about the hook. Are you just like Eagles plus four, minus four and a half?

• 1:46:42Speaker 02

  I think I'd take a minus four and a half. Looking at the second part of rule number 15, would you trust either of these coaches with your passport went abroad? Like Shanahan, Shanahan's kind of Sirianni, I feel like would very easily lose my passport and all my possessions. Like he,

• 1:46:57Speaker 01

  That's what Big Dom is for. You have to give it to Big Dom.

• 1:46:59Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Well, he would have Big Dom, so he might not lose it.

• 1:47:02Speaker 01

  He can't, he can't manage the passport. That's why he has Big Dom.

• 1:47:05Speaker 02

  That's Super Bowl saves him because he was on the hot seat forever. And that almost seemed like if there's a coach that gets fired after winning a Super Bowl, it's probably Nick Sirianni. Just because like he seems like that type of guy. But Shanahan's also sneaky in a situation when you're like, are we going to get over this hump? Like there's been the injuries. There's been that substation across the street that's been sabotaging you, obviously in your players health. But when are you going to take this to the next level? Like what's going on here?

• 1:47:29Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Well, the comeback stat with him is the weirdest one. The no, no comebacks for more than seven in the fourth quarter since 2017. That's gotta be the weirdest stat in the league. All right. So we'll either for a Ringer 107, we either do Eagles minus four and a half. We'll make a game time decision on that. Next game.

• 1:47:47Bill Simmons?

  This is where House and I, our friendship's going to be tested. Patriots minus three and a half Chargers. The nerd stats favor the Pats. Chargers nerd stats surprisingly disappointing, including their offense, which 26 pass EPA. The Pats were first. Chargers defense nine versus the pass against EPA and third against the run. So that's the big strength with them. Both teams have three wins against decent teams. Chargers lost to Jacksonville by 19, Houston by four, and Indianapolis when they were good by 14. The Pats last 14 games, Billy, what do you think they're averaging points per game? Last 14 games?

• 1:48:29Speaker 02

  22.

• 1:48:30Bill Simmons?

  30.7.

• 1:48:32Speaker 02

  Wow.

• 1:48:34Bill Simmons?

  Easy schedule. They haven't scored less than 24 since week three. They have 28 games, or 10 games over 28 points. And before Billy gets to his big angle on this game, I just want to say two things about the quarterbacks. Do you have quarterbacks in your angle?

• 1:48:51Speaker 02

  I have quarterback adjacent angles.

• 1:48:57Bill Simmons?

  Do your angle and then I'll do my thing.

• 1:48:59Speaker 02

  All right. Well, the first angle, we can do this angle really quick. This is the third angle, but we'll get to it quickly to get it out of the way. What happened to Justin Herbert? This is kind of along the same lines of Trevor Lawrence. Justin Herbert was promised to be this guy. He's this great quarterback. It's just a situation that's not working. 0-2 in the playoffs. He has that collapse against Trevor Lawrence.

• 1:49:17Bill Simmons?

  One of the worst losses.

• 1:49:18Speaker 02

  He's, he has a good record, obviously, this season. 11 and 6.

• 1:49:22Bill Simmons?

  By the way, really bad last year in the playoff game. Like, don't sweep that one under the rug either.

• 1:49:28Speaker 02

  He's not been good in the playoffs. He hasn't lived up to the hype, but he also kind of is living in the world of Trevor Lawrence. That it's like, oh, we just forgot about him because he didn't pan out to be exactly what we thought he'd be. Maybe he'll still get there. He's still in the playoffs.

• 1:49:42Bill Simmons?

  The nerds didn't forget about him. The nerds still love him.

• 1:49:45Speaker 02

  Well, the the nerds have loved the Chargers for the longest time because the nerds love Brandon Staley also. Like the nerds, that was their poster child was Brandon Staley and the nerds took like a big hit. And I think it hurt their heart when Brandon Staley got fired so quickly. So they can't, they have, they're almost forced to love Herbert because they don't want to give up. It's like the process, right? Like they don't want to admit the process was wrong. So they're just going to keep moving the kind of the goalposts and like, no, no, we still believe in Justin Herbert. It's just circumstances. It's not Justin Herbert's fault. So that's one thing to look at. Here's another storyline. Is there any chance in the world that Patriots Hall of Famer Tom Brady wants the Patriots to win this game?

• 1:50:28Bill Simmons?

  Zero. Oh, no, he does like Josh McDaniels. That would be the only thing.

• 1:50:31Speaker 02

  He likes Josh McDaniels, but he has really been put in a bad spot with this Drake May. Because Drake May very well may win the MVP this season. And if he wins the MVP this season, that little feud and Tom Brady has lost. They found their franchise quarterback. They win an MVP. Now, if he doesn't win the MVP, but they win a playoff game, like we know Drake May is the future for the Patriots. So I don't think that Tom Brady even wants them to win this game. A guy that's in their Hall of Fame has a statue, I believe, is actively rooting for the Chargers to beat the Patriots just out of jealousy and spite for Drake May, which is insane because he has nothing to be jealous of with Drake May.

• 1:51:11Bill Simmons?

  The good news is he's not announcing this game.

• 1:51:13Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:51:14Bill Simmons?

  I forgot to mention this as part of the Rams Panthers thing. Greg Olson is announcing the game.

• 1:51:20Speaker 01

  Oh, boy. I might put 40 bucks on the Panthers money line.

• 1:51:25Bill Simmons?

  I mean, it's just shitty to do to the Rams fans. You're watching your team play a playoff game. Somebody is announced in the game who loves the other team and can't hide it, basically. I think he might even live there.

• 1:51:40Speaker 01

  Olson with the Panthers, the ref and the Eagles.

• 1:51:43Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that Olson doing the Panthers game. I just wanted to mark that down. All right. What was your third thing, Billy?

• 1:51:49Speaker 02

  My third one, and this is like very inside that relates just to this show and this company. I'm wondering how the outcome of this game is going to affect your debut on Netflix because you're coming straight out of this game.

• 1:52:02Bill Simmons?

  You're not the only one wondering about this.

• 1:52:03Speaker 02

  If this is a situation, it's like the weather's going to be a little bit sloppy. 26 degrees, partly cloudy, 25% chance of precipitation. You're coming right out of this game.

• 1:52:14Bill Simmons?

  Like literally right out, like we're game ends, we're here.

• 1:52:17Speaker 02

  You're gonna have. You're gonna have no time to like decompress whatsoever. Like your actual like full emotions will be on display. How are you going to handle? If the Patriots have like a late game situation where they blow this game?

• 1:52:34Bill Simmons?

  I did mention to somebody two days ago that if it was a Tyler Book kind of ending. And we were like going live four minutes later. I don't. That might be the first time I try cocaine house.

• 1:52:48Speaker 01

  Oh, I, I, I encourage that. Please write it. Netflix. Let's do that.

• 1:52:52Bill Simmons?

  No, I don't. I, it's gonna, it's definitely a psychology experiment. I'm hoping the Patriots make it a little bit easier for us with that.

• 1:53:00Speaker 02

  Do you think you're gonna be able to like enjoy the game knowing that, that you're gonna go live right after? Like what point do you like? I need to kind of get into podcast mode, sit down, turn the equipment on and get ready to go.

• 1:53:11Bill Simmons?

  I don't think I've ever enjoyed a game where my team was favored to win the game and it was a playoff game. I don't know how you enjoy that. The enjoyable ones are when you're like the 2001 Pats when we were like 10 point underdogs in Pittsburgh. And you was like, you're just playing. I love the house money playoff games. This one where they're favored. I feel like the AFC is open. I feel like they're better than most people think they are, including House. So there, there's a lot at stake and, and the big angle for me on top of your angles.

• 1:53:42Bill Simmons?

  I genuinely think Drake May is like special as a quarterback. I really feel like he's great. Like he's like Mahomes in 2018 where after a while you're like, this guy's fucking great.

• 1:53:52Speaker 01

  Well, you could just say Jaden Daniels last year who won two road playoff games.

• 1:53:56Bill Simmons?

  Jaden Daniels, who got hurt this year, but last year.

• 1:54:00Speaker 01

  Could say him.

• 1:54:01Bill Simmons?

  At some point, we watched Jaden Daniels, like this guy's great. And we've had this happen with quarterbacks every once in a while in the playoffs where, and I just think he has it. I think his teammates think he has it. So for me, it's like, I think they're gonna be able to move the ball. They got their left tackle back. Um, I think they're gonna be able to run the ball a little more than people realize because of Remandre and Henderson coming on. Um, and I think the Chargers have a lot of trouble, especially if Hampton's not 100% healthy. They don't score a lot of points. The Chargers, what do they have? It's, it's basically like 19 points a game, their last 10 or something. They're, they're just, they play 17, 14, 20 to 16 type of games, right?

• 1:54:47Bill Simmons?

  Herbert in the playoffs, I like.

• 1:54:49Speaker 02

  He's also fumbled a lot lately. He only had two fumbles, I think, in the first 12 games. He's fumbled the ball five times since he heard is not throwing hands. So if it's not ideal conditions, he could be turning this ball over.

• 1:54:59Bill Simmons?

  We have playoff manifesto rule, the law of Lombardi, bad offensive lines don't travel. Who has a worse offensive line than the Chargers? We have the warm weather team coming to play in the cold weather at night. We have the never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe they can win, which House thinks they can win, and then the home field advantage. But, um, I just think the Pats are better than people think. I don't think people realize that they didn't have Milton Williams and Will Campbell for, you know, four or five weeks there. And people got too fixated on the schedule. They can move the ball. They have number one offense by EPA, and they have a quarterback who's excellent. House, make the case against them.

• 1:55:37Speaker 01

  Yeah, I'm not going to be a prick about it. Um, I just think that three and a half is too many points. Like I would, I wouldn't mess with this if it was two and a half or, or two or whatever. Like Patriots as a home field, you know, having a home field advantage is a, as a 14 and three, uh, two seed, but like I'd leave it alone, but three and a half is too many. And there's a handful of reasons why. First of all, this Chargers team is tough. They, they, they've won tough games. They, they, they have three wins over playoff teams. Um, they swept the Chiefs and you know, we watched that, that Monday night game against the Philadelphia Eagles, still stuck in my craw. Now, uh, Hertz aided and abetted the demise

• 1:56:21Speaker 01

  of the Eagles in that game. But Herbert was pressured 70% of the time and took seven sacks and they won that effing football game because their defense shut down the Eagles. Now, I'm not suggesting that, you know, the Eagles offense and New England's offense are equivalent. They certainly are not. And I don't have, really have much quibble with Drake May winning MVP this year. I think there's a good case for Stafford, but if Drake May wins, I'm certainly not going to be upset. The problem I have is what you've hit on a couple of times, which is what do we know about this Patriots team against tough competition? They placed one good quarterback. He's Josh Allen. They split with him. Justin Herbert's going to be the

• 1:57:04Speaker 01

  second best quarterback that they face all season long. 14 wins for the Patriots. 11 of those wins have come against teams with rookie quarterbacks, backup quarterbacks, or back quarterbacks that got benched. 11 of 14. So that, that, you know, goes to a lot of what we were talking about with the, um,

• 1:57:24Bill Simmons?

  Can I zag on that point?

• 1:57:26Speaker 01

  You can.

• 1:57:27Bill Simmons?

  I think that's why people are off the Patriots a little bit because I think people are too fixated on the schedule.

• 1:57:32Speaker 01

  Well, not fixated. It's just what happened.

• 1:57:35Bill Simmons?

  But I think they're actually a good team is my point.

• 1:57:37Speaker 01

  We're gonna find out.

• 1:57:38Bill Simmons?

  13 and one in their last 14.

• 1:57:39Speaker 01

  We're gonna find out.

• 1:57:41Bill Simmons?

  And the Buffalo game, they're up 21. They really could have won their last 14.

• 1:57:44Speaker 01

  They could have.

• 1:57:45Bill Simmons?

  That's the part I'm confused by. The quarterback's great. They can run the ball and throw the ball and they're home. And three and a half is a fair line. I honestly think they should be favored by four, but what do I know?

• 1:57:57Speaker 02

  It's a playoff debut though for him. Do you think that's going to impact him at all? Or you think he's just got it?

• 1:58:01Bill Simmons?

  You know, I went back and I looked to Mahomes. Mahomes had the zero touchdowns, zero picks in his first playoff game, which they won, and then had the 37-31 game against the Pats. I haven't seen no defense. I have, like, if you blitz them, he knows what to do. If you play back in zone, he kind of knows what to do. The only issue with this team is sometimes they start out slow. And there's a scenario where they start out slow, Chargers get a, like the McConkey 35-yard touchdown or whatever they're playing behind.

• 1:58:31Bill Simmons?

  Can I debunk the Chargers defense for a second? Cause the stats are really good for them and I think people think they're really good. So I'm just gonna lay out some stuff here. They played Vegas twice and they played KC twice. And I don't think, does anyone think KC had a good offense even with Mahomes? They were fine, like mediocre, not explosive. They couldn't run the ball. But they were a 500 team. They had two games where the best wide out on the other team blew out his ACL in the first half of the game, neighbors and Tyree Kill. So there's, there's another two. They played broken Carson Wentz in Minnesota. They played Tennessee. They played week 18 Denver when nobody cared.

• 1:59:12Bill Simmons?

  Dallas, Pickens had 130 on them. AJ, that Philly game when Philly was in a coma, AJ still ended up with 100. Sutton had 6 for 118 in the first game. Jacksonville smoked them. Indianapolis smoked them with deep balls and running everything earlier in the season. Washington beat them 27-10. You remember that one, House?

• 1:59:31Speaker 02

  I did.

• 1:59:31Bill Simmons?

  Multiple big plays. Houston beat them a couple of weeks ago, got two bombs in the first quarter and that made the difference. And the only one that you could really make the case their defense was awesome was when they shut down Pittsburgh. But I don't know if their defense is as good as people seem to think it is.

• 1:59:48Speaker 01

  Well, the thing that they are.

• 1:59:49Bill Simmons?

  We'll find out on Sunday night.

• 1:59:50Speaker 01

  That's right. The thing they're good at is limiting explosives. There's a bunch of indicators that say that they don't allow deep passes.

• 2:00:00Bill Simmons?

  I looked at that, but they've allowed a bunch of them though. Houston had two, two weeks ago.

• 2:00:04Speaker 01

  That's fine, but across the entire body of the season, they're one of the very best at limiting 20 yard or deeper passes.

• 2:00:12Bill Simmons?

  And your guy, your white guy on the, on Washington got a 50 yarder on him.

• 2:00:16Speaker 01

  Oh, they're, they're gettable. Don't let their, you know, don't get it twisted again.

• 2:00:20Bill Simmons?

  I feel like you can get them.

• 2:00:21Speaker 02

  Do you think the weather's gonna allow explosive plays?

• 2:00:24Bill Simmons?

  Like it seems to have affected the Pats.

• 2:00:26Speaker 01

  Yeah, he's, he's gonna try and throw deep, no, no matter what. He doesn't care about the weather.

• 2:00:30Bill Simmons?

  I mean, I'll give you, can I walk you through the worst case scenario for this game for the Pats? Remandre fumble, some sort of dumb special teams thing. Drake has the first half interception that makes everyone go, oh God, he's so young.

• 2:00:45Speaker 01

  Well, don't underrate.

• 2:00:46Bill Simmons?

  Some big Chargers explosive play.

• 2:00:48Speaker 01

  The, you know, the, the hot head coaching candidate is Jesse Minter, the defensive coordinator for, for the, for the Chargers. Right? Like every, he's in, I mean, I heard his name come out in connection with, with Baltimore. This is a referendum, right? This, this defense, when they've had Derwin James and Khalil Mack this season, it's been a pretty good defense.

• 2:01:06Bill Simmons?

  Pats are pretty healthy. I'll throw this in too, guys. Everyone's taking the Chargers. This has been like one of the popular, I think the most popular of the six for underdog picks is to bend the Chargers. And I just think people are looking at the Pats schedule. So I like the spot the Pats are in minus three and a half. There's a prop I like too. Hunter Henry, 30 plus receiving yards on Fanduel with the Pats, Pats just to win. That's minus 102. I think Hunter Henry will be heard from in this game. Hampton's hurt. Eduardo, who's a Chargers fan, who I'll probably not be talking to after Sunday night, who works on our podcast with us. Reminded me that Hampton got hurt near the end of that last game. Might not be a hundred percent.

• 2:01:49Speaker 01

  Gadsden's fine.

• 2:01:51Bill Simmons?

  Last thing I'll give you.

• 2:01:51Speaker 01

  How's New England against tight ends?

• 2:01:54Bill Simmons?

  Guy by the name Mike Vrabel.

• 2:01:59Bill Simmons?

  Five times, five playoff games for him. Played Lamar twice, Tom Brady, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes in those five games. 19.8 points a game in those five games for the opponents.

• 2:02:12Speaker 01

  There's some losses in there.

• 2:02:14Bill Simmons?

  I'm just saying, Mike Vrabel is a good coach and I don't think he gets mentioned in this.

• 2:02:18Speaker 01

  Harbaugh, Harbaugh, good coach.

• 2:02:21Bill Simmons?

  How many Super Bowls did Harbaugh win? The same as Mike Vrabel.

• 2:02:24Speaker 01

  Well, how many Super Bowls has Vrabel been to?

• 2:02:27Bill Simmons?

  I'm taking Pat's minus three and a half. House can fuck off. We'll go to the next one.

• 2:02:31Speaker 01

  By the way, the spread, the, you're, you're wrong. The percentage of bets is 64% for New England. The money is 65% New England. The public is not on New England.

• 2:02:43Bill Simmons?

  That's not what the people in Boston, they think everybody's picking the Chargers. I talked to my dad two hours ago. My dad said, everyone's picking the Chargers. That might've been an erroneous report for my 78 year old retired father.

• 2:02:55Speaker 01

  Assholes. Everybody's against us.

• 2:02:57Bill Simmons?

  Jesus, everyone's against us. Texans Steelers, this dropped to, what it was at minus two and a half? Went to three and a half? Now it's at three? Didn't it start at two and a half though, House?

• 2:03:07Speaker 01

  It did. It definitely started at two and a half. Yes.

• 2:03:12Bill Simmons?

  This is another one I love, Billy.

• 2:03:15Speaker 02

  You love the game?

• 2:03:18Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I do. Cause initially I had the same instincts everyone else had of, oh, Houston. And then you start staring into it. You take a chug of the voodoo juice that Pittsburgh has. It's just improbable. It'll be the chase game for everybody who lost money in Saturday, Sunday. Put money on Houston minus three. I've just seen this too many times.

• 2:03:41Speaker 01

  Take 10 seconds. What's in voodoo juice? What, what like, I mean, Iron City is the beer up there.

• 2:03:47Bill Simmons?

  Iron City beer.

• 2:03:49Speaker 01

  Put a tiny bit of that, but what's the liquor they drink up there? Ask Horlbeck. Ask Craig. Well, let's make a voodoo juice. I'll drink it. I'll drink it Monday night.

• 2:03:56Bill Simmons?

  Permanente juice.

• 2:03:57Speaker 01

  Yeah, well, that's.

• 2:03:58Bill Simmons?

  There's some Mike Tomlin sweat.

• 2:03:59Speaker 01

  Run over of the grease from the Permanente sandwich? I don't want that.

• 2:04:03Bill Simmons?

  Permanente grease. Billy, what do you have for the angle?

• 2:04:07Speaker 02

  So I have two storylines for this one. The first one, Texans are not a Monday team. If you look at the Texans in the playoffs, the Texans are a Saturday team. They should be playing on Saturday.

• 2:04:18Bill Simmons?

  The Shaky's game.

• 2:04:19Speaker 02

  This is the first game that they have played in wildcard round that is not on a Saturday. They're six and two on Saturdays when they advance and then they go and they play on Sundays. They've lost both Sunday games that they played in. They're also 0-2 on Monday Night Football this season, so they're not a Monday team. Craig mentioned it earlier this week. The Steelers haven't lost a home game on Monday Night Football since 1991. Texans are coming in hot, but it feels like, we talked about the fix being in another game with the officials. It feels like this game was put on Monday night simply to give the Steelers a fighting chance. Like, give them the day. They played Sunday Night Football last week. Get Rogers healthy. We can't have him play on short rest, six days only after Sunday Night Football.

• 2:05:04Speaker 02

  We'll give them the Monday night game and then things will hopefully take care of themselves. We'll get, you know, the Tomlin narrative. We'll get the Rogers narrative. Maybe this is the year he does one last run. It feels like maybe the fix was in with the scheduling on this one. Plus, the Steelers now get DK Metcalf back, which DK Metcalf, you saw how important he was. That game in Cleveland, they should have wrapped up the division. They ended up not winning because of the fact there was no receivers out there. They end up kind of hanging on because of Miss Field the last week where DK would have been important to them. So DK coming back is huge, but Texans, not, not a Monday Night Football team.

• 2:05:40Bill Simmons?

  On top of that, there's some pretty disturbing CJ Stroud outdoor stats that I didn't love.

• 2:05:47Bill Simmons?

  There is some really, really alarming Houston rushing stats. And I had Woody Marks on my fantasy team. The problem with Woody Marks is he looks good for an hour and then all of a sudden he's not in the game anymore. And then he's got the red flag next to him.

• 2:06:02Speaker 02

  He had a record like 12 straight games or something that he left early, I think during the season, right?

• 2:06:07Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I don't trust him in Pittsburgh on a Monday night, then I'm down to Nick Chubb. Houston's offense 30th. EPA run. Defense first against the pass, 11th against the run, and that's the best reason to take them. Other, you know, Pittsburgh's ridiculous. You look at the Houston wins, their best wins were Jacksonville, Buffalo, Chargers, Niners. They came back from the, they came back from 19 in that Jacksonville game with Davis Mills. That was weird. They beat Mac Jones in San Francisco. No Bosa and Warner was right after they got hurt. They beat Buffalo in that Thursday night game that I still don't know what happened. And Josh was driving at the end and they end up losing. The Chargers game was just ridiculous where they got the two early passes.

• 2:06:52Bill Simmons?

  Gazed and fumbled at the goal line. That was a dopey game. They lost to Jacksonville, the Rams, Seattle and Denver. The big things for me. Is it possible house that Pittsburgh is just a good, bad team? And they roped us into this moment. And there, every win they've had was explicable. There's, they wouldn't even be in the playoffs if Tyler Loop can just kick, kick a field goal straight. And then they go into this and Houston's defense just runs over them. And we're like, God, how stupid were we? We thought Pittsburgh was going to win that game.

• 2:07:25Speaker 01

  I'm willing to live with that outcome. I, this is like all the stuff. This is the worst football field, not just in professional football, but definitely in college, maybe in America. We have to go to some high school fields to find a football field as bad as this. Watch the guys when they run. It's, it's sand getting kicked up every single time.

• 2:07:45Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 2:07:45Speaker 01

  Uh, that anybody takes a meaningful step. And on top of that, part of the voodoo, we just watched it. It's impossible to kick the football in this field. Kyrie M. Fairbarn, he wants to miss extra points anyway. He wants to miss extra points when he's in his own dome stadium. Let them get out here with, you know, they're supposed to be, they're potential, potential for precipitation. I knew I could get it out 10 times. I'll try.

• 2:08:09Bill Simmons?

  Wow, that was impressive, Hes.

• 2:08:10Speaker 01

  Yeah, potential for precipitation. And just the, the usual, the usual weird wins and stuff. I mean, e, e, e, even the Steelers own guy missed an extra point last week. That's how crazy it is.

• 2:08:26Bill Simmons?

  I was trying to think like, like the score of this game will definitely sound like a war that happened. It'll be like 1918, 1713, 1816. Like it's, you just know it's gonna be weird and it won't be in the twenties.

• 2:08:46Speaker 02

  Can I ask a weird question? Cause this is something else that I was wanting to watch, a story to watch. Do we know, do we know that Mike Tomlin wants to win this game? Because there's been conversation about, you know, maybe he's on his way out. He's the longest tenured coach, 19 seasons.

• 2:09:01Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, there was some TV stuff with him that they thought maybe he was going into the wacky world of TV.

• 2:09:05Speaker 02

  There, there's no, he, listen, he's great for short soundbites, but there's no way long form Mike Tomlin on TV is gonna work out like in pregame shows. But he's kind of, it seems like they're both, it's a loveless marriage at this point where both sides are like, this isn't gonna last forever. I don't want to be the one that calls it quits. They're not gonna fire him. They want him to just move on, but how does he do it? You know, there's a talk out there. Well, maybe he, you know, sees an opening like Atlanta. He goes down there. It's an easy division that he can win. But now that Harbaugh's gone in what was a loser leaves town match, maybe that's a game where both people leave town after that game last week, right? Where Harbaugh's out and now Tomlin says, you know what?

• 2:09:46Speaker 02

  I don't have a franchise quarterback here. We have Aaron Rodgers. He kinda hinted at this was his last season, but you never know with Aaron. Now he makes the playoffs. He says, you know what? I got one more ride in me. Do I really want to have a 20th season here? And my quarterback is 49-year-old Aaron Rodgers who's not gonna get it done. I'm not gonna win again. Or do I look over there where, you know, John Harbaugh, he, John Harbaugh left, there's an opening over there. You have a franchise quarterback, you have a running back.

• 2:10:15Bill Simmons?

  What are you doing right now?

• 2:10:16Speaker 02

  You have a situation where you have Mike McDaniel, who can you bring in as an offensive coordinator to kind of play with the toys?

• 2:10:23Bill Simmons?

  This is amazing. This is like a fucking WWE booth.

• 2:10:26Speaker 02

  He heads over to Baltimore after ending their season and he has this roster that's so much better than what he's dealing with now. But you can't do that if you win a playoff game. So does he actually want to win this game and just prolong a season? That's going to end in disappointment anyways.

• 2:10:43Bill Simmons?

  That's amazing.

• 2:10:44Speaker 01

  It is phenomenal.

• 2:10:45Bill Simmons?

  Blowing this playoff game and then immediately joining the Ravens. I don't even, that's like Hogan joining the NWO. I can't even, it's on par with that.

• 2:10:55Speaker 01

  I mean, counter, why couldn't they win this, this playoff game? Go get blown out in the next one and then get through this, do it, go right to Baltimore.

• 2:11:03Bill Simmons?

  Here's the thing.

• 2:11:04Speaker 01

  What's keeping them?

• 2:11:05Bill Simmons?

  If they win this playoff game, they go to Denver.

• 2:11:09Speaker 01

  Oh, they can, they can definitely win.

• 2:11:11Bill Simmons?

  Anyone can go and win in Denver. We've seen it over and over again.

• 2:11:16Speaker 02

  It's hard to, it's hard to leave if you go on a run. You win one, maybe you get hot.

• 2:11:20Bill Simmons?

  So your advice is.

• 2:11:22Speaker 02

  What you win, look, he's a man of integrity. He's not a man that I believe will toss the game. He's a man who on countless occasions has told us he does not blink.

• 2:11:30Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 2:11:30Speaker 02

  But should they lose, I don't think that he will think it's the worst thing in the world. Deep on the inside of him. He won't say it publicly, but on the inside, not the worst thing for Mike Tomlin.

• 2:11:43Speaker 01

  So wow.

• 2:11:44Bill Simmons?

  Manifesto rules, nobody believes in us. Steelers, they qualify. Never pick an underdog thing unless you think they can win. Yes. Dome or warm weather teams playing outdoors in cold weather catching. Aging quarterbacks in cold weather. We've already decided Rogers is immune. When in doubt, gravitate toward the one pick that would screw over the most gamblers and experts. And definitely go against the single worst gamble you know. I feel like a lot of people are going to be on Houston as the chase bet minus three on Monday night. Then last but least, the law of Lombardi, bad offensive lines don't travel. Houston, you qualify for this one.

• 2:12:26Bill Simmons?

  And on top of this, the CJ Stroud stuff. I love, I love this Steelers pick. I wish it was three and a half. I don't mind getting the three. I feel like they could lose and still cover. Because we're going to have the war of 1816 or the war of 1715 or whatever we get. House, what do you think about Metcalf 15-1 most receiving yards round one?

• 2:12:49Speaker 01

  Why not?

• 2:12:49Bill Simmons?

  15-1.

• 2:12:50Speaker 01

  Why not?

• 2:12:50Bill Simmons?

  Most receiving yards.

• 2:12:51Speaker 01

  Why not?

• 2:12:52Bill Simmons?

  Nobody has more than them.

• 2:12:53Speaker 01

  Yeah, I understand. Throw a dart. Go ahead. What's to keep it?

• 2:12:59Bill Simmons?

  What do you think of the under in this game? By the way, the, the old Anthony DeBundo Houston under.

• 2:13:05Speaker 01

  It's 38 and a half. I mean, it's, it's literally right there, isn't it?

• 2:13:10Bill Simmons?

  Feels like a teaser for me on a Monday, bringing this Steelers up to plus seven and a half, bringing that under up even more. I don't think this game gets to 40 points. I don't see it.

• 2:13:20Speaker 01

  I can't get past how emotional the Steelers were after they beat Baltimore. Like those guys, this is the absolute peak of recency bias out of me. But Cam Hayward,

• 2:13:34Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 2:13:35Speaker 01

  Rogers, they were like, they were, they were, they were pouring it out for each other out there.

• 2:13:40Bill Simmons?

  That's a manifesto rule, though. The team that was too excited after.

• 2:13:44Speaker 01

  No, I don't think they were too excited. They, they clinched their playoff spot after, on the precipice of, of, of missing, they clinched it. Those are a bunch of vets, too.

• 2:13:55Speaker 02

  Are we gonna see the Hayward brothers nonsense again this week?

• 2:13:58Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 2:13:58Speaker 02

  I, I hated that last week so much.

• 2:14:00Speaker 01

  We are definitely gonna see it.

• 2:14:01Speaker 02

  Worst.

• 2:14:02Bill Simmons?

  I actually think that these guys are related is probably my least favorite media storyline that they feel obligated to hammer home. Like, we get it. TJ Watt and JJ Watt are brothers.

• 2:14:15Speaker 02

  Anyone else on the team could have been pushing the brother. Any, anyone else on that team could have been pushing him. Them bringing in Cam to do that was just to make that a storyline.

• 2:14:25Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. I, I tried to avoid it, but now you've brought it up and now we've, we've fallen prey.

• 2:14:31Speaker 01

  We did it.

• 2:14:32Bill Simmons?

  To their tricks. All right. Today's Ringer 107 brought to you by FanDuel. It is round one of the playoffs. We have five Ringer 107 picks. We just spent over seven hours talking about them. First one, Packers minus 1.5 points in Chicago. We laid out all the reasons. We think the Packers can move the ball. We think the Bears, their luck is about to run out. Next one, favorite bet on the board, Jaguars plus one and a half at home against Buffalo. We're all aligned. We can't believe that the Jags aren't favored in this game and that nobody believes in us. We laid that whole case out. Next one,

• 2:15:11Bill Simmons?

  Monday night, our third and final favorite game, Steelers plus three. The voodoo Steelers going against a Houston team that has a lot of tiny playoff manifesto things going against it. Steelers plus three. We're also hoping the door for the Steelers to lose by two or one, which is very possible. Anything's in play in this game. Eagles minus four and a half is our next one. We talked long and hard about this. Feels like the Niners have just passed the point of no return with injuries. And then last but not least, House begged me not to do this. Billy urged me to get weird. Pat's money line parlayed with the over of 36.5 points. That's our fifth pick.

• 2:15:57Bill Simmons?

  And then for posterity, just for the quest to go undefeated, Panthers plus 10 and a half and Pat's plus minus three and a half, just to have those on the record. House, your favorite of those picks?

• 2:16:08Speaker 01

  Jacksonville.

• 2:16:10Bill Simmons?

  Billy, your favorite of those picks?

• 2:16:13Speaker 02

  I think the Panthers, which is an unofficial pick, is my favorite of the picks. But of the official picks, I'd say Steelers. I think the Steelers.

• 2:16:21Bill Simmons?

  Should we throw the Panthers in there and dunk the Pats?

• 2:16:24Speaker 01

  No.

• 2:16:24Speaker 02

  That's not to get too crazy.

• 2:16:26Bill Simmons?

  Greg Olson wearing a jersey in the booth?

• 2:16:28Speaker 02

  Oh, yeah. I forgot about Greg Olson back there.

• 2:16:30Bill Simmons?

  Panthers unofficial. And those are the Ringer 107 picks for round one. Do you, what do you call the playoffs, Billy? Are you a round one guy? Are you a wild card round guy? Where have you landed?

• 2:16:45Speaker 02

  There was a, like, are we still in the era of super wild card weekend? Cause there was wild card weekend and then there was.

• 2:16:50Bill Simmons?

  That's next weekend.

• 2:16:52Speaker 02

  Is, no, next weekend's already the divisional round.

• 2:16:54Bill Simmons?

  Oh, division, next week since, yeah.

• 2:16:56Speaker 02

  Yeah. So there was like, at one point we were referring to it as super wild card weekend, but I think now it's back to just wild card weekend.

• 2:17:02Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. How about round one and round two? That sounds pretty good. And then AFC title game, NFC title game?

• 2:17:08Speaker 02

  No, you need a name. Catch a name.

• 2:17:10Speaker 01

  It helps me, wild card helps me remember, oh yes, there are shitty teams playing this weekend. Now, now I remember why.

• 2:17:17Speaker 02

  This is like the weekend I could still go run errands and it's not really going to impact things because those Saturday games aren't going to matter all that much. Like, I don't have to give up my entire weekend for wild card. I'll catch up with what happened.

• 2:17:29Bill Simmons?

  House, did Billy do enough to come back next week?

• 2:17:31Speaker 01

  Oh, he's, it's between him and Schreger. I mean, let him, let him.

• 2:17:35Bill Simmons?

  Schreger mattered. You know what? I didn't see him today. He wasn't available.

• 2:17:39Speaker 01

  I love the, that was an amazing performance. All those storylines were magnificent.

• 2:17:43Bill Simmons?

  Today's Ringer 107 brought to you by FanDuel. Odds subject to change. Before we go, Billy, you worried about Bam Adebayo at all? What's going on with him?

• 2:17:54Speaker 02

  I don't know.

• 2:17:54Bill Simmons?

  Why doesn't he look like a franchise guy anymore?

• 2:17:57Speaker 02

  He, he's always kind of had that situation, right? Where like they wouldn't want to trade him to get anyone because they're like, this is our guy. This is our franchise guy, but he can't carry the team far enough. And then the heat started out and they were looking great. And I, I can't figure out the heat or Bam or their love obsession with keeping Bam and not improving the team. Cause like to make the heat better, you can't win with hero and Bam, just them, right?

• 2:18:24Bill Simmons?

  No.

• 2:18:25Speaker 02

  And Norman Powell is fine.

• 2:18:25Bill Simmons?

  No, you should trade hero. You should try to be moving hero, trying to upgrade. Keep Norman Pop. I don't know. I don't, what would you do, House?

• 2:18:34Speaker 01

  I'm just going to tip my cap to the pod father. We've been on here for two hours and 20 minutes and we're about to go and you say,

• 2:18:44Speaker 01

  Billy.

• 2:18:44Bill Simmons?

  I just, why he was there?

• 2:18:45Speaker 02

  I'm just curious.

• 2:18:46Speaker 01

  I'm a fan, yeah.

• 2:18:48Bill Simmons?

  I was just curious.

• 2:18:49Speaker 01

  We're fucking 40 games, barely 40 games.

• 2:18:51Bill Simmons?

  Go ahead. What's going on? Is House is hungry?

• 2:18:54Speaker 01

  Who gives a shit about them?

• 2:18:55Speaker 02

  I am hungry.

• 2:18:56Bill Simmons?

  No, House is hungry. When we would drive from Vegas that way.

• 2:19:01Speaker 01

  We just did.

• 2:19:02Bill Simmons?

  We have a Miami Heat expert right here.

• 2:19:04Speaker 01

  NFL playoffs. Oh, let's talk about the Miami Heat.

• 2:19:07Bill Simmons?

  When we would drive to Vegas and House would just be calling out fast food. Like Jack in the Box. Armies.

• 2:19:16Speaker 01

  How about Bam out of bio?

• 2:19:19Bill Simmons?

  Well, now, now we have NFL picks and we have thoughts on Bam out of bio.

• 2:19:24Speaker 02

  That no one wanted.

• 2:19:24Bill Simmons?

  We're ready to go. Uh, are you doing college football tailgate?

• 2:19:28Speaker 02

  Yeah. College football. Ooh, we're having a Friday edition of college football tailgate to recap the, uh, the semifinals game. So join us live.

• 2:19:36Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:19:36Speaker 02

  Yeah, Friday night.

• 2:19:37Speaker 01

  In.

• 2:19:38Bill Simmons?

  And then House Fairway Roland starts on, uh, Netflix as part of our batch of sports pods going to, uh, Netflix.

• 2:19:44Speaker 01

  Yeah, we have our debut show next week. Netflix is, will be on Netflix in two weeks, I think.

• 2:19:49Bill Simmons?

  Okay, great. All right. House, thank you.

• 2:19:51Speaker 01

  Appreciate you as always.

• 2:19:52Bill Simmons?

  Thank you. Good to see you guys.

• 2:19:53Speaker 01

  Thank you, Billy.

• 2:19:55Bill Simmons?

  All right. Thanks to House and Billy. Thanks to Gahal and Eduardo as well. Rewatchables, it's up, uh, Mailbag last week. What lies beneath coming Tuesday this week. Um, and tickets available starting on Friday for the live BS podcast show at the Wiltern.

• 2:20:14Bill Simmons?

  In Los Angeles on February 11th. Have a great weekend. Enjoy all the sports. Go Pats, go Celtics. Two big Celtic game this week, too. I hope this is a great Boston sports weekend for my sanity. I will see you on Sunday.

• 2:20:41Bill Simmons?

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• 2:21:15Bill Simmons?

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• 2:21:59Bill Simmons?

  Filmed on location on Easter Island. Malkovich and Rockwell play CIA agents Chris and Lee, who are caught in a dangerous game of secrets and survival. Also starring Steve Buscemi, another one of my guys. Parker Posey and Tom Waits. Wild Horse 9 is being hailed by critics as a revitalizing shot of pure entertainment and easily one of the best films of the year. Don't miss Wild Horse 9, only in theaters November 6th. Get tickets now.