WTF is Going Down with the Iranian Protests? | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

In this episode, the discussion revolves around the ongoing protests in Iran, the regime's response, and the implications for U. S. foreign policy. The conversation highlights the mechanisms of control employed by the Iranian regime, the role of the IRGC, and the potential outcomes of regime change. Additionally, the episode delves into the geopolitical implications of oil control in Venezuela and the U. S.'s approach to NATO and Greenland, raising questions about the future of international relations and U. S. foreign policy. Jon's books:⬇️ Iran's Shadow Weapons: Covert Action, Intelligence Operations and Unconventional Warfare https://a.co/d/3CulLSG Theory of Irregular War https://a.co/d/dvSYCGn Support the show on Patreon:⬇️ https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouse Subscribe to our new newsletter!!!! https://teamhousepodcast.kit.com/join New merch, patches, and stickers! ⬇️ https://theteamhouse-shop.fourthwall.com Check out Mick's new podcast here:⬇️ Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/at/podcast/pub-and-porch-applied-stoicism/id1836955475 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1k3QPmkAMwnGJxMLDwUSSd?si=n6piIu8XRcag1Z0K43A3bQ Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCd0Hq6QFk8CoTu5j-VU0Ong Find Mick Mulroy here: Fogbow ⬇️ https://fogbow.com/ Lobo Institute ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/ Twitter ⬇️ https://x.com/mickmulroy?s=21&t=-Ze3F_Ix2vlJ18KFvORTCA LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/ Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/mickmulroy.bsky.social Mick’s publications ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/publications/publications-of-michael-mick-patrick-mulroy/ Find Andy Milburn here: Twitter ⬇️ https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8 LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023 Substack ⬇️ https://amilburn.substack.com/ Andy’s book ⬇️ https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/andy-milburn.bsky.social Find Jason Lyons here: LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lyons-666873316?u Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/bgsilverback73.bsky.social "Karl Casey @ White Bat Audio" 00:00 IStart 03:05 The Role of the Regime and Military Options 05:53 Internet Control and Communication Strategies 09:12 Economic Mechanisms of Regime Control 11:43 Potential Outcomes of Regime Change 14:53 The Impact of Foreign Influence and Historical Context 17:46 The Current State of the IRGC and Quds Force 20:47 The Situation in Venezuela and Oil Economics 32:35 International Implications of Oil Control 34:41 U. S. Foreign Policy and Imperialism 39:03 The Role of Collectivos in Venezuela 41:18 Greenland: A Strategic Dilemma 44:52 NATO's Future and U. S. Relations 52:01 The Consequences of U. S. Actions 55:39 Insights from Jonathan's Book Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Speaker 00

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• 0:56Speaker 02

  When we say who's in charge, we're usually wrong. When we killed Salami, for example, the commander of the military, you know, we thought that would decapitate the IRGC. It didn't because he's not in charge. The people who are actually in charge are not big names. They call them sepahis or guardians that are in the background that are controlling a lot of this stuff, not for ideological reasons as their number one reason. It's more about economic control and wealth generation for their inner circle. If the Ayatollah left, I feel very little would change.

• 1:30Speaker 03

  Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. We've got a special one today. Of course, we're joined by Mick Mulroy, Jason Lyons, and a special guest, Jonathan Hackett. He's been on the Eyes on and Team House before. Incredible episodes. Check them out for sure. He's a, wrote this great book, Iran: Shadow Weapons, Covert Action, Intelligence Operation, Unconventional Warfare. And I think he's a perfect guest for what's going on, what's been going on for a while, you know, last week or so in Iran. Protests against the regime and stuff like that. They've seemed to turn violent over the last few days. The internet's been cut off countrywide. There's been like a lot of reports, varying reports of like how many people have been killed by the regime and stuff like that.

• 2:14Speaker 03

  It's like all the way up to a couple thousand. They're saying that a lot of their hospitals are like overrun with people with gunshot wounds and stuff like that. Jonathan has an intimate knowledge of what goes on in Iran and stuff, so I think he would have been a perfect guest for today, so. Thanks to me. Jonathan, what's up, man? How are you?

• 2:33Speaker 02

  Good. How you guys doing? Good to be here.

• 2:36Speaker 03

  Good, man. I mean, where do you want to start? You guys want to start like a basic on a TikTok on like what went down, when and how it all popped off?

• 2:45Speaker 04

  I could start with what I'm getting from media folks on the inside scoop, if you will, like stuff that's not reported yet and obviously

• 2:56Speaker 04

  of interest. So apparently, obviously, there's significant protests like over 70 cities. It appears that they have been identified as enemies of God now, which apparently in their lexicon means, you know, open fire at will when it comes to the besiege in the IRGC. I think it's unknown how many have been killed, but I've seen reports as high as 1,000 plus. I don't think people know, but I think there's a new scrubbing mechanism that uses AI to go through social media to try to identify, you know, more accurate numbers. But either way, it's really bad.

• 3:40Speaker 04

  And for the protesters, I should say, and for the regime, which is a good thing, of course. And I think Jonathan will get into all of the mechanisms that the regime has to stay in place. It's basically their main effort at all times, right? And they're just as concerned about their population, if not more so than even external threats. The other big factor I would throw out there for discussion with the group is, and this is now reported, so this is public, is that the administration is reviewing potential military options to enhance the protests in Iran. I would assume, although I don't know, that there's already a pretty massive covert program going on.

• 4:25Speaker 04

  If not, there should be. I don't think that's the debate. I think the debate is whether they would use overt military efforts like strikes,

• 4:34Speaker 04

  potentially on IRGC facilities or something that's directly associated with the security forces that are

• 4:43Speaker 04

  oppressing the people. I heard, and I think this is somewhat in reporting, that the debates between the White House and the State Department, so the State Department's kind of of the mind that this won't help the protesters. It'll just potentially, you know, give the regime an out to say this is all US-based, it's not real, etc. Hard to say that when it's extensive as it is, but they'll use it and potentially try to get people to rally around the flag, so to speak. And then I'm told that the White House has been very pleased with their use of military force in the second term to date, and that they are more inclined to use it. So, there you go.

• 5:26Speaker 04

  Throw it back to you guys to hit those points you think, Jonathan, would be great to really talk about, what the regime does to keep itself in power, because he's written some excellent books on the topic, and I think, as you said, the perfect timing.

• 5:42Speaker 04

  And he's a Marine.

• 5:42Speaker 02

  Yeah, yeah. Almost have our fire team.

• 5:45Speaker 04

  Had to throw that out there, yeah.

• 5:46Speaker 02

  Lead with that. Yeah, yeah, so it's day fifteen of the protests, so that, as you're saying, Mick, it's very tough to know exactly how many are injured, how many are killed, how many have disappeared. And the problem there is that both sides benefit from whatever number they're using, because it can satisfy different objectives based on what that number is, and that's similar in most conflicts and protests. So, we probably will never really know exactly how many died in this protest or were arrested. Similar happened in the past, there's been about ten different protests that have names that are very significant in Iran in the last forty-plus years, and this always is an issue of knowing how widespread is it, who actually is dying, who's doing the killing. Interestingly, in this particular protest, because they shut the internet off around

• 6:31Speaker 02

  seventy-two hours ago, the only media that's being released is being released by IRIB, which is the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, which is a state-owned and state-controlled, IRGC-controlled news outlet. That's the outlet that's actually releasing images of morgues and warehouses and hospitals full of bodies, which is very interesting to consider, why would the regime be doing that? And I think it's more about messaging to Iranians than it is about messaging to the world, and what they're probably trying to do is intimidate the people that are, once their internet actually gains some access, the first images they're gonna see are images of their dead people. And I think that's probably the goal of what that is right there, and that's...

• 7:12Speaker 02

  Again, the internet has been a weapon that the regime has been using recently. They used it in June against their own people. They actually shut the internet off when Israel and the US were striking Iran. That wasn't the outside shutting them off. That was the regime shutting the people off from knowing what was going on because fear is their weapon. I think it was Rage Against the Machine that said like, fear is your only god on the radio. And I mean, it's, it's, it's really true. You can weaponize this, this feeling, which will maybe prevent some people from actually taking to the streets because what the regime does not want is more people on the streets. Even if those people don't have weapons, they have voices and they have the ability, they have spending power. And in an economy that's damaged like the current Iranian economy,

• 7:54Speaker 02

  spending power is everything. And that's, that's a huge point about who is actually protesting right now. If you look at, for example, in 2021, during the water shortage protests, or 2019, which they called Bloody Aban, which is when fuel prices had tripled. And I could name a bunch of other ones. There was usually a single segment of society protesting, you know, for example, during the Masa Amini protests, it was a lot about human rights, women's rights. So there's a certain segment of society that's going to stand out there and protest. Right now, the significant news item is that it's not just one group, it's the Bazari merchants, which were actually the people that fueled the base for the regime to take power in 1979 in the first place. And that core element of their constituency is protesting against them. This is a huge change and has never happened since 1979. So that's a very interesting development.

• 8:40Speaker 04

  Question for you on the, on the internet, so we don't go past that because I mean, they, they shut it down, but what about Skylake? Like, is there ability to override that? Does it take? And if you don't know the answer, I'm sorry if I'm putting you on the spot, but this is for everybody. Like, is that able to get through? Are they actually able to interfere with Skylake's ability to?

• 9:05Speaker 04

  You know, provide the internet to the population in Iran or uh and there's something we could do cyber wise to affect that change.

• 9:13Speaker 02

  Absolutely. So what you're talking about is basically a mesh network configuration, which Starlink is is a branded version of a mesh network. I actually wrote a paper on this at Naval Post Graduate School where you can create a mesh network to provide internet and basically circumvent a state controlled internet system, which the regime actually imported the great firewall from China. China came in and actually as a as a partnership built Iran's internet infrastructure, which is what the regime is throttling right now. So they're able to filter almost ninety eight percent of internet traffic using this mechanism. But the regime has had a problem, not just with mesh networks like you're talking about, but also with dishes on roofs. And if you see pictures of Tehran or any other major city, you just see roofs covered in satellite dishes.

• 9:56Speaker 02

  Because the everyday people, they want to be able to reach out to the outside world and they're using these these parabolic antennas to do that. There are other ways as well, because even with the throttled internet, you can still get around it. There's two applications. One is called Free Gate and one is called Cyphn. And both of these are used to get around the Chinese great firewall and Iran's what it's called National Internet Network, which is called the N I N. Both of these basically act as open web proxies that have these huge rotating server lists. They don't always work. Let's say it's like a ninety eight percent failure rate. But if you can get a two percent success rate on that penetrating the filtered network, that's success, right? So if you couple that with a mesh network like Starlink, you could have some success. The problem with with Starlink is it costs money.

• 10:41Speaker 02

  You're talking about a regime where the economy is completely controlled by the IRGC and the people are protesting because they have no money. How are you going to pay for that?

• 10:48Speaker 04

  That seems like it would be a good investment on the US government's part, just throwing it out there.

• 10:53Speaker 02

  That's exactly what I was getting at, is that if we're talking about covert support or even overt support, maybe that means paying subsidizing Starlink temporarily to allow people access so they can go out and arrange protest movements.

• 11:05Speaker 04

  Absolutely. And so the rest of the world, you know, and I would say that we should stick to the covert side and not do direct over strikes. I kind of agree with state on this. But one of the things we can do is amplify the organic nature of what's going on right now. And that's giving people the internet to put out there what's happening, you know?

• 11:26Speaker 04

  Hopefully that's the case. Hopefully, and I'm sure, you know, there's smart people looking at this right now, how we can do that. But so you do think, Jonathan, there's a way around this attempt of the regime to basically put the country in the dark?

• 11:41Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, it's going to affect most people because most people aren't sophisticated enough to figure out how to get around it. But there are other ways too. So I mentioned the filtering, anti-filtering, those two applications, Freegate and Cyphn. Then there's the mesh network like you mentioned. And there's another way, which is if you're in the border areas, like in Kurdistan or Abadan down in the south, if you're close enough to the Emirates, or you're close enough to Iraq, you can use Corec, you can use Atesalot. These are the two other internet service providers that are in Iraq and the Emirates that actually you can reach them because of line of sight. So you could actually still transmit outside the country, totally absent of the government's control of the internet.

• 12:19Speaker 04

  Can you amplify those?

• 12:21Speaker 02

  You could do that with repeaters. Yep.

• 12:25Speaker 02

  So and especially in a country like Iran that has a lot of high dramatic terrain, perfect situation for repeaters across the top of the ridge lines to just pass that signal from a major city to the to the border area.

• 12:35Speaker 03

  Yeah, you got to, are they doing that? I'm hoping, right? CIA, MI6, whoever?

• 12:41Speaker 04

  Hopefully.

• 12:42Speaker 02

  It's really tough because those things are so obvious that if the regime, I mean, all you need is a, you know, a small handheld device to figure out where that signal's coming from and direction find on it and destroy it, which is what they were doing with the antennas on roofs as well. There's just so many of them. So if you could flood the environment with these devices, the regime just wouldn't have the resources to stop it. Right now, that's not the case.

• 13:03Speaker 04

  Version of a repeater?

• 13:05Speaker 02

  You could, but that would require a lot of power.

• 13:10Speaker 04

  I know we're geeking out here, or at least I am on the tactics of this, but I'm not a cyber expert by any stretch, but it seems like that would be one of the best things that the international community, including the United States, of course, could do to amplify what is clearly an organic, not fabricated uprising against the regime, right?

• 13:34Speaker 04

  So, I mean, and you're a very well-published author, which is awesome. Can you explain, and sorry, Dea, I know you probably have some questions, but I just wanted to know this, because I'm gonna be talking, be yapping about this today. Like, what is the mechanism, other than what we all know, IRGC, besiege, etc., Kudz Force? Like, the mechanism internal that keeps the regime in place, both by, you know, the counterintelligence and the action arm of that element? And are they any good? Because we've obviously saw direct strikes by Israel on individuals that they had, you

• 14:16Speaker 04

  know, they were hosting, and clearly they've been infiltrated. What's your thought on that? And can you kind of give the listeners an idea just how they keep themselves in power with such an opposition?

• 14:32Speaker 02

  Yeah, so this grip on power that we see today is kind of a long-term development that started in 1989, when the current Ayatollah took over from the original Ayatollah. And what happened was he consolidated power economically through these organizations called Banyads, which are essentially kind of like quasi-religious charity organizations on paper, but what they do is actually funnel all the money the regime controls into these specialized entities. That's at one layer, and then below that are things like banks, state pension funds, you know, overseas investment funds. So you think about like in the United States, we have private equity and hedge funds and things like that. The regime has something very similar to that, that are owned in the person of the Ayatollah. And one of them is called Setad, S-E-T-A-D, which is interesting to look into if you have

• 15:17Speaker 02

  time. There was a Time article, I think in the 90s, about Ayatollah Khomeini, about how he's potentially one of the richest human beings on Earth, more than Jeff Bezos, because of his control over these banjads. And it's a, we're talking hundreds of billions of dollars. And there was actually a statement by the Minister of Finance in the regime's inner circle a few years ago, where he admitted that 20% of the black market in Iran is controlled by the IRGC. So if the government is saying 20% is controlled by the IRGC, you can only imagine what the real number is, right? And if they're controlling the black market and they're also controlling the regular commercial market, it's not about necessarily our conventional ideas about securitization

• 16:01Speaker 02

  of a state, which is what's causing repression. Instead, it's economic control of the state. So the reason fuel prices are high, the reason the toman is devalued, the real is devalued, the reason there's little water access, this is because the regime is controlling the economy, rather than allowing actual government functions to move normally as they they should. I grew into it very deeply, but I'll I'll leave it there.

• 16:21Speaker 03

  John, we had like, there was like a report, maybe a month or a few months ago, maybe two, three months ago, about Iran and their, the drought, the problem with their water. Has that, is it really like, just comes down to the regime, like, holding the, you know, the spigot open or not, in terms of like, getting, because they were talking about moving the capital and stuff like that, like, like, just insane things that you can't even like, you know, the scale of it is like unbelievable to even think about.

• 16:51Speaker 02

  Yeah, so this is not a new issue. I mean, 2021, there was a huge protest movement. It was water shortage and labor issues and some other stuff. The problem is this infrastructure that is in their, the water system is poorly maintained. It's basically Shah era infrastructure that's not ever been updated. So you've got like rotting metal, you've got pipes clogged up, you've got poorly managed dams, because there's a lot of corruption in the government, obviously, right? So like, the people that are supposed to be like technocrats that you'd want running these things are not running them. Instead, it's IRGC affiliated individuals who are either brainwashed or sympathetic to the regime as their number one qualification to be running a dam.

• 17:31Speaker 02

  Right, so that's, that's a big problem. Also, I think it's, I can't remember how many decades, this is the worst drought Iran has had in decades. Right, so they're already at a low water table. They're, they're having issues with how the crops are being, like how, how the efficiency of the actual movement of water to grow crops is happening. You have to remember, it's a very mountainous country, like we, we mentioned, there's, there's very little kind of lowland, flatland with, with water access, so. It requires extra infrastructure to actually move water from mountain to mountain. There's one navigable river in the entire country, the Karun River, where actual ships can move on, the rest of it are not navigable by large ships. So there's already like a environmentally low water level there. Combine that with corruption and with a drought.

• 18:16Speaker 02

  Now you've got a recipe for water disaster, which is like one small component of the current protests.

• 18:22Speaker 04

  So the one, the next thing, of course, is what if we have catastrophic success? Oh, sorry, Jay. Uh, I'm just throwing that out there, maybe you have like. Uh, the questions I'm getting is, uh, what comes next, right? Like what if, what if, uh, you know, there's reports that the Ayatollah is talking about fleeing to Moscow, et cetera. Like what if the regime is decapitated? Is it just simply gonna leave? Um, the IRGC is, is presumptive power, uh, that will fill the vacuum. Um, is there any chance that it could be a? Formation of a government, uh, more friendly to the United States, the West, and being part of a, you know, community and nations?

• 19:04Speaker 04

  Is there any leader that actually has the clout, uh, to stand up and do that? Or are we basically gonna move from a theocracy into, you know, a military dictatorship?

• 19:15Speaker 02

  Yeah, I think there's three possible outcomes, but I'll first put a pin on the thing about the decapitation. When we say decapitation, we're, we're typically thinking about a person or a small group. So in this case, most people are thinking, well, if we kill Ayatollah Khomeini or he runs away to Moscow. The regime is decapitated, but there's a problem. It's like that whole problem framing concept in military planning. If we don't frame the correct, the problem correctly, we're going to be pursuing the wrong problem and the wrong solution the entire time. The thing is with the regime, when we say who's in charge, we're usually wrong. You know, when we, when we killed Salami, for example, the commander of the military, you know, we thought that would decapitate the IRGC. It didn't because he's not in charge. The people who are actually in charge are not big names. They're not on the, on

• 19:58Speaker 02

  the news all the time. It's a small group of, they call them Sepahis or guardians that are in the background that are controlling a lot of this stuff, not for ideological reasons as their number one reason. It's more about economic control and wealth generation for their, for their inner circle. So if, if the Ayatollah left, I feel very little would change. And I'll go back to the, the three outcomes. One is that he leaves and or dies. The second one is that the monarch returns. And the third one is that the IRGC takes over. These, these are very three, you know, common, uh, potential outcomes. The most likely thing that will probably happen, and I'm not a future, you know, predictor of the crystal ball, probably what would happen is the IRGC would take over. That

• 20:39Speaker 02

  third option is most likely. The reason for that is because the monarchy is not universally liked, even by people who want freedom in the country, because a monarchy doesn't really equal freedom. It just equals another way of consolidating power, which is what the revolution was about in the first place. A lot of the outside Iran support for inside Iran protests talk about the monarchy and that does not correlate to what people want inside the country. And it's the people inside the country that ultimately have to live every day with what that next government is. Right? So that's always a question of what do the people outside want versus what the people inside want. And we have to rectify those two desires in, in kind of trying to predict what might happen next and what

• 21:20Speaker 02

  the consequences are. And if the US or Israel is perceived widely by people in Iran that they were behind a regime change and the monarch came back, I feel like we'd probably run into a very similar problem that we had with the original Shah before he left, where there was this, you know, widespread kind of consternation about who's actually running things in the country, even if the monarch was purely running it himself without foreign influence. If, if people doubted enough, you're going to lose that kind of support for that leadership.

• 21:50Jack Murphy?

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• 22:31Speaker 06

  It's really good, man. I'm checking it out.

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• 22:57Speaker 06

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• 25:08Speaker 03

  Jay, what do you got? You were gonna say something.

• 25:11Speaker 11

  I was just gonna ask, as far as the protests are concerned, do you think that the regime is willing to, is there a red line that the regime would not want to protest across before they increase their, the use of violence against the protesters, and what might that look like if they were?

• 25:33Speaker 02

  I think the regime is acting in a state of fear and survival, and they're not using logic to calculate. To your question about a red line, I think what they're doing is they're going to continue throwing assets at the problem to try to tamp down, and there's actually clear indications of that happening. Right now, they have Afghans actually manning checkpoints in eastern Iran. They have Hezbollah in Tehran marching down the streets enforcing the law. They have Pakistanis, and they have some other foreign fighters that are, that were working with the regime in Syria that are now in Iran, actually doing besiege-like law enforcement activity. They did this previously in, I think it was 2019 or 2017,

• 26:16Speaker 02

  it was 2017 during one of those protests. They had 5,000 Lebanese Hezbollah fighters patrolling the streets in Tehran. And I think you'll see something like that continuing where, rather than making a logical choice about what to do next, they're gonna just continue throwing these foreign assets at it to try to tamp down.

• 26:32Speaker 11

  And you mentioned, which was, what is their probable state of mind, and you said it's panic mode right now.

• 26:39Speaker 02

  Yeah, they've been this way for a long time and they've that's kind of been their main mode of behaving. Rather than thinking like a rational actor, they've been acting like someone with their back up against the wall, making very rash decisions about what to do next.

• 26:52Speaker 03

  I mean, you do see what the uh, what uh, Khomeini's tweeting and stuff like that. He's tweeting like an absolute maniac. Uh, that doesn't sound like somebody who's really in control and and locked in to what's going on.

• 27:07Speaker 02

  Yeah, if I was, you know, if I was the ninety year old dictator and I was afraid that I might get deposed, I'd probably stay off of Twitter. Because uh, every time you hit send, you know.

• 27:17Speaker 03

  Yeah. Hey, gents, I gotta jump real quick. I'll try to jump back on. I have a viable issue based on.

• 27:25Speaker 03

  Good luck. Mick's going to say Mick's going to parachute into Tehran right now to assassinate the supreme leader. You didn't, you heard it here first.

• 27:35Speaker 02

  Bring me back some saffron.

• 27:37Speaker 03

  Yeah. So, I know you don't want to speculate, but like you said, like the IRGC is like, if you had a bet money, likely the IRGC is the one that would take over Iran. Also, the interesting thing I've seen like over the last, it's been more than like the last few weeks of protests. It's been more like the last few months. Basically, ever since we, Israel and the US hit Tehran, the nuclear sites, was like, you see these kind of like puff pieces in American, like the Western media about the Shah. And how, and you know, you hear it on Twitter too, how has these protests have continued to go on? Where they're like, bring back the show, long live the show and stuff like that. And it's like, dude, this guy's been outside of Iran for

• 28:21Speaker 03

  fifty years. Yeah. So it's like, there really is some like secret love for this guy to come back? Or is that just what like Western powers really want?

• 28:31Speaker 02

  You've got to think about the, a lot of the Iranians that are, let's say, our parents' age that are outside of Iran. They, they left Iran during the revolution. So like, they grew up pro-Shah, left the country, left their views, and now they're speaking. And their kids grew up like that, too. So people that are our age or even younger grew up in that environment, like in California, for example, Los Angeles. A lot of pro-Shah stuff, because that's, those were the people that left the regime or left the country and came to the United States. You know, that's what we have. Doesn't mean it's, it's false support, but it may be overemphasized or, or over, over. It's not, it's not representing the actual sentiment, especially, like I said, ins- inside Iran, like, because those are the people that will have to be

• 29:11Speaker 02

  dealing with the new government, if there is one, every day. And is that the government that they wanted in the first place? You know, and actually Iran, people think about Iran, they think like, oh, it's this centralized authoritarian system, whether it's a monarch or it's a Ayatollah. But Iran actually has had democracy twice in its, uh, you know, century, recent century of history. Nineteen oh six, they had a constitutional revolution, and then nineteen fifty-three, they had Mohammed Mosadegh, who was deposed by the CIA. Both of those times that people actually picked their government, and it, both times, it was a democracy. So there, there is a, a big desire for that in Iran. The problem is, and I don't know if this crosses over to the Venezuela discussion, there's oil in Iran.

• 29:53Speaker 02

  And foreign interests in oil are always looking, and they, and it's easier to manage a single authoritarian than it is to manage a democracy if you want the oil out of that country. Right? And that's just rational, uh, you know, international relations concept. That you want to, you want to have the simplest access to that resource. So whether it's the United States, Britain, Russia, or China, all of them have something in common, and that is they want the oil in Iran. And if that means that they need to keep a dictator or a monarch in power, they'll, they'll do it, because that means they get what they want.

• 30:23Speaker 03

  It's interesting you said how, uh, you know, uh, folks that came from Iran, like immigrated to the States and like, you know, maybe the UK and other places after the year, during the, you know, the fall. It mirrors a lot like Cuban immigrants, right, to the States, even like Greek immigrants to the States, right? Like, a lot of them came over during like the junta and stuff like that. So there are those like, you kind of gets, they kind of get stuck in time a little bit, right? And remember like the good old days before, without thinking what the actual people on the ground of whether it's Cuba, Greece, Iran, or take your pick, really want for themselves.

• 31:07Speaker 03

  Yeah, if you have anything else in Iran, or Jay, if you have any questions on Iran, just let them.

• 31:11Speaker 11

  I wanted to ask if you know what Israel's role on the ground might be, or even geopolitical as far as all this is concerned, what are they saying?

• 31:23Speaker 02

  From my contacts inside Iran, the consensus or feeling is that Israel has deeply penetrated the IRGC and outside the IRGC, but still in the government, because there are some actual like secular components of the government. And I think that's probably true. And the question is, the ones who are infiltrated, are those the ones that will eventually take over? Or is there a separate element that will eventually take over? And it's really tough to say, because when, obviously, when you're doing clandestine work, it's hard to manage that because it's clandestine. So you can't actually, you know, answer every question about what your move might do, what the effect might be. I think it'll be interesting because if you look at who was assassinated in June, there was certainly a select deck

• 32:04Speaker 02

  of individuals who were killed, and then a select deck of peers who were not killed. And of course, you know, doing some inferential analysis, you could question about why did they survive?

• 32:14Speaker 03

  Let me ask you this, you know, because we're, you know, relatively, it's understood that it could force an IRGC, obviously, it protects Iran, and its main thing is to protect itself and the, the supreme, you know, the Ayatollah. But like, they're obviously deployed across the world. Are they pulling back in terms of like their covert stuff outside of Iran to like come back and be like, oh shit, we gotta make sure things are covered at home?

• 32:44Speaker 02

  Yeah, so it's important to distinguish between Quds Force, which is like a special operations element that does partner force training with their elite partner units, like in Syria previously, and the IRGC generally, which is much larger, because the IRGC also has an intelligence organization, which actually took over from the, we call it the MOIS, but they actually call it VADA. So IRGC Intelligence Organization took over domestic intelligence activities from this other entity in 2009 after the Green Revolution, the John Bashi Sabs. And when they did that, they set up across every province, an outpost. So there's IRGC Intelligence Organization all over the country. And there's also some other elements, there's actually quite a few other named elements that are supporting them on all these provinces.

• 33:27Speaker 02

  So Quds Force is still doing what Quds Force does, because it's a foreign entity. Like, they're supposed to only do stuff outside the country. Whereas IRGC Intelligence Organization is the one that's most concerning domestically, and also regionally. So there's, we call it IRGC IO. The IO is all over the place in Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Turkey, Syria, like the ring around Iran, basically. Whereas Quds Force is much further out, you know, they're in Latin America, they're in Africa, they're sometimes in the United States, not doing very well with their operations. But they try. You know, so they're pretty widespread, whereas it's the IO that's inside Iran, that's causing a lot of this background collection.

• 34:09Speaker 02

  That's resulting in a lot of what they do is they'll disappear people to scare others. So you saw during the Masa Amini protests, what they would do is they would actually use Instagram to geolocate where the people were. And they'd go to their house and basically throw them off their rooftop to kill them that way. And then say that someone committed suicide. You know, and like, they would use this as a way to instill fear and kind of like, make people think twice about stepping outside. But they've turned the internet off, so they can't use that tool very well right now. So going back to what I was mentioning earlier, that's why they're probably releasing these images of people in, you know, the dead, essentially, is to try to achieve that same outcome.

• 34:46Speaker 03

  Damn unbelievable what's going on um alright yeah let's flip to another oil-rich country Venezuela that we last week obviously everyone knows we went in and snatched Maduro um he's three miles away from my house right now relaxing in a Brooklyn detention center um interesting thing this week what happened you know we saw President Trump with uh Secretary of State Rubio and some other folks from the administration meet with a round table of oil executives and uh the Halliburton executive and I joked with you guys before the show started about how insane that would be if we did that in 2002 and 2003 when we went into Iraq and now it just seems to be

• 35:32Speaker 03

  normal like this is like just normal operating procedure and I kinda went through down a rabbit hole in terms of like what what's the deal with Venezuelan oil and how it's like heavy crude and it needs like serious refinement and and that like Venezuela really isn't uh the infrastructure really isn't there it needs like five to 10 years of like modernization for them to like make it cost-effective um you know they get like they get some uh precursor that goes into the oil to like uh you know thin it out from Russia like they don't really have a great infrastructure there also the other part about the heavy crude thing is like

• 36:15Speaker 03

  all heavy crude needs to be at eighty dollars a barrel for it to make sense economically for Venezuela also the whole thing about them having 300 plus billion of reserves was a number that Hugo Chavez came up with back in the early 2000s to like say hey we're a real deal player here um and that's the number that we've taken for the last 25 years is being true some people are saying that it could be a third of that that's a lot of oil still obviously but you know it's not exactly like we could just go in there stick a tap into the ground and then we're rich all of a sudden because we have all this oil you know most of the oil execs at that round table at least maybe they were offline off the record were talking like this doesn't really make sense for us economically

• 37:01Speaker 03

  and most of them are actually more into it for getting their 10 billion dollars for like the judgment that was against that was like levied against uh Venezuela when they pulled out when they like nationalized the oil industry there Uh, so it's just, I don't know what the fuck we're doing there is basically my point. So John, what do you got?

• 37:23Speaker 02

  Yeah. So actually it's interesting this situation with the oil because it's even though it feels regional, it feels local. It's actually international in scope because we were just talking about Iran's oil as as one thing. China has all these small teapot refineries is what they're called. They're basically kind of like backyard oil refineries that are designed specifically to make to work with this kind of crude. Exactly. And what has been going on with a lot of Venezuelan oils that has been doing ship to ship transfers over to China? And being refined by these very small time, almost like entrepreneurial oil refineries, right? Well, the problem that the US now controlling that, you have to think about what effect will this have on Chinese oil use? How will this affect China Iran oil use? Because Iran is the number one provider of oil to China currently.

• 38:08Speaker 02

  Well, if there's a regime change in Iran and the US now controls Iran and Venezuela oil production, what does that mean for China? Because if China's oil is coming from these two countries and the US now controls it, the only other option is Russia. So this is just, I mean, I don't want to speculate on what could all these like third order effects. That's a very interesting thing to think about internationally about what will happen just because of the change of control over the oil. Now with the crude oil, the US is actually the only country that's able to truly commercialize what's currently in Venezuela. And that's why Chevron stayed there for so long. The problem is the infrastructure, of course, is breaking down. It's been breaking down for a long time. It was nationalized previously. So there's a lot of, you know, detritus in these in these processing pieces of equipment.

• 38:51Speaker 02

  But if the oil price, like you said, it needs to be eighty dollars for it to be profitable. And right now it's in the fifties. Again, internationally, how is that going to affect OPEC? How is that going to affect Saudi Arabia and the Emirates who we want to have on our side? Because if we if we push them out of this game, guess who they might start selling oil to? China, right? So like, there's a lot of third order questions that pop out of this single act of taking over this oil.

• 39:16Speaker 03

  Damn. So yeah, there's like a lot going on here. Like it's pretty unbelievable.

• 39:23Speaker 03

  Yeah, just this whole rabbit hole I went into about like going like, you know,

• 39:29Speaker 03

  I still am trying to wrap my head around why the fuck we did it, right? Because like, we play the, we play the role as like, uh, you know, freedom and democracy coming to you soon. But we're still, we're dealing with Maduro's number two and number three in command, right? Like the Rodriguez siblings, you know, who have been, yeah, yeah. And who have been in the government for 20 plus years. They were part of Hugo, you know, they came up with Hugo Chavez. So, uh, it's really interesting. Like, you know, how the veil has kind of been lifted a little bit. And I don't know if this is like what it's, what US foreign policy has been all about for the last 50 years, but kind of really seems like that's what it's been about for the last 50 years.

• 40:12Speaker 03

  Isn't just imperialism, frankly. Sorry to talk like a pinko commie, but.

• 40:18Speaker 02

  Well, you know, we, we don't have the balancing force that we had with the Soviet Union previously where there, there was like a second actor that could come in and affect what was happening. And we're currently sort of unrestrained or, or unipolar, I guess is the, the term to use. But, but there are no constraints. There are no repercussions, which no matter actually who is in office, because if you look during the Obama administration, you know, we, the predator drone was used exponentially more than it was during the Bush administration, right? That's one example. And the things we were doing in Syria, like you would never imagine we'd be doing that in Syria if, if the Soviet Union was still around, right? So because there are no checks on that, regardless of who is in power in the United States, the US as a country internationally is going to act in an unconstrained way until there is a constraint placed on.

• 41:00Speaker 03

  Make your back. Glad to see you.

• 41:03Speaker 04

  The Middle Eastern media's heads start collectively exploding.

• 41:08Speaker 03

  Really? Why? Did something new happen?

• 41:10Speaker 04

  All the reports are coming out now that, uh, you know, obviously the White House is considering these strikes and according to them, the decision point or the options brief will be Tuesday and a decision will be made.

• 41:27Speaker 04

  I don't know that to be true, just passing on. I think they were citing Reuters.

• 41:33Speaker 04

  So I know we've moved on to Venezuela, but.

• 41:35Speaker 03

  Yeah, yeah. We talked about the crazy round table of oil executives and Halliburton. Which again, would be unbelievable to see if this was 20 years ago.

• 41:47Speaker 04

  Do the oil executives really, really want access to Venezuela? I say that not as a statement, a genuine question. I'm not an energy expert.

• 41:56Speaker 03

  I think the only per, the only company that was like really down for it was Chevron. Cause I think ConocoPhillips has like a big deal with Guyana and they have the same kind of heavy crude that Venezuela does and it's more developed and stuff like that. So there isn't this real, I mean, obviously people are going to want to make money, but there isn't like this huge rush as people would think that there would be to get this Venezuelan.

• 42:21Speaker 04

  We're talking like a decade long infrastructure bill to make this effective, right? So this is a long-term commitment by these companies that may or may not last policy-wise beyond the next three years.

• 42:35Speaker 03

  Yeah. Also like, what's the situation on the ground? Like in terms in Venezuela, right? Like, how are you going to protect these assets? You know, you're going to drop a hundred billion dollars of investment? And maybe in five years, the country looks different and they say fuck off again, you know? Which frankly, if you ask me, that's like within their rights to do because it's their country and it's their resources, but uh, why would anybody with, uh, you know, if I want to be profitable, if I'm an investor or an oil company, why would I dump billions of dollars in fixing infrastructure if there's like a maybe there?

• 43:10Speaker 04

  Right. And is it just, we're going to keep the regime in place by paying part of this to them? What's the difference between, you know, this and what was going on before essentially? I mean, the US used to promote democracy around the world, right? We, we actually recognize that uh, Mundo Gonzalez won the last, the 2024 election. Like that's official policy right now by the United States. So are we going to try? And I know it's, it's much easier said than done.

• 43:36Speaker 03

  It doesn't seem like de facto policy, to be honest.

• 43:40Speaker 04

  Right?

• 43:41Speaker 03

  You know.

• 43:42Speaker 04

  Like, um, why aren't we forcing them to either, uh, let them be the interim government or pulled another election? It's because Machado.

• 43:51Speaker 02

  Department just went there and met with the current government.

• 43:55Speaker 04

  Yeah, right? So we're basically propping them up, which is just that the Maduro government minus Maduro.

• 44:03Speaker 03

  Yeah. Uh, you guys know anything about the collectivos that are on the ground in Venezuela? Can I get a little bit of info on that?

• 44:12Speaker 04

  Well, like most regimes, their primary purpose is to stay in power, right? So the collectivos, a paramilitary group that's kind of like a common, at least how it's been described to me, a combination of, um, a security force, a cartel, a gang, a street gang.

• 44:31Speaker 04

  They are basically affected because they're extraordinarily violent and they have no restraints when ordered. So, uh, that would make it very challenging to, you know, to reinsert Maria Machado, of course. I think that's a fair point. Um, but essentially locks down everything and anyone, um, at the direction of the Minister of Ontario, who is one of the, apparently the most, um, powerful leader that's there. It's not under our system, of course, but under their system, it's, it's about the regime security. So that individual is, uh, has a lot of clout, much more so than the acting president.

• 45:06Speaker 03

  All right. Uh, I think that's all I got for Venezuela. I feel, let's, I'm missing something. You guys can hit me up. I mean, it looks like another fucking quagmire, to be completely honest. Um, and it doesn't seem like we're at all promoting, uh, democracy at anywhere. We don't really give a fuck about that. We just care about who agrees with us and does what we want them to do. Um, another, another, you know, in the Western Hemisphere, Greenland, uh, you know, there's talk about, you know, invading Greenland or paying, uh, citizens of Greenland a hundred thousand dollars to like become American citizens. Just like, why the fuck would you do that? Cause a hundred grand would just go to your medical bills if you became an American. Uh, so why, what's the incentive?

• 45:49Speaker 04

  Or your veterinarian bills.

• 45:50Speaker 03

  Yeah, or that. Yeah, exactly. Um, you know, if we were to ever try and take over Greenland, obviously it would be easy militarily. That's what the one thing we're good at is fucking, fucking other people's militaries up. Uh, what comes after is usually where we fucking stumble.

• 46:09Speaker 03

  What happens to NATO as a alliance?

• 46:13Speaker 04

  Ceases to exist.

• 46:14Speaker 03

  Right.

• 46:14Speaker 04

  It's, it's, this is, this is hard to believe we're even talking about. It's, uh, you know, it started as like, oh, he's just bloviating to.

• 46:22Speaker 03

  He's just dotty and old. Yeah.

• 46:24Speaker 04

  I mean, where to start, right? So Greenland, we have like three treaties with Greenland to include the NATO treaty, right? And they have a, they've, during the Cold War, we had many bases and many people. It's, it's strategically important. Yes, that's true. It's like the interceptor point for, you know, intercontinental, continental ballistic missiles coming our way. Apparently somebody told me it's like the POGI or whatever the, the top of the trajectory is, is right under it. So it's the easiest place to strike it. So that's, that's definitely true. It's also, you know, we're seeing Arctic, uh, ice cap melt. So the access to, um, hydrocarbons and rare earth minerals are more prevalent.

• 47:09Speaker 04

  And then if you look at the globe and just flip it like this, once that's the case, the world gets a lot smaller. So obviously it's strategically important. So is everything that touches the Arctic. That said, the aforementioned treaties allow us to do everything that we're saying that we need to do, that we're not doing right now. Like if it's that big of a security issue and Russia and China are just circling Greenland, which they're not, then why aren't we there? Like, why did we, uh, degrade or reduce our presence to like a hundred folks in one, one base? So the question is, if it's that important to, um, why aren't we doing something about now? Why aren't American companies in there full, full throttle, uh, looking how to exploit this?

• 47:50Speaker 04

  So, um, that's, that is one issue on whether this is really about the things that we are, um, saying it is. And then the second issue is just the damage this is doing to the United States reputation to even talk about it. Under the UN Charter, you cannot obviously use threat against another nation. You can't even threaten it. So we're already past that. We're threatening because they won't take it off the table, which is a threat.

• 48:19Speaker 04

  To use military force against a NATO party. So we're clearly in the wrong internationally on this. It is, I mean, you're seeing reports that NATO, I mean, European countries are going to start sending forces there. And you know why they're doing it? They're going to say, well, you said there was under threat. So now the UK, Germany and France are going to send forces potentially, of course, Denmark's, well, to Greenland right now to bolster this perceived threat of Chinese and Russian invasions. And that's going to, of course, just escalate it because it's going to irritate the White House. And we'll see where it goes from here. But the other part of this, and I'd love to hear what you guys think about this.

• 49:05Speaker 04

  This is clearly against the treaties that the US signed, which is against US law. So how the military would even entertain or prepare for an invasion is, is a question I would have, because it's clearly an unlawful order to invade a NATO treaty ally per the US law that established our presence in NATO, unless we withdraw, which I think takes Senate action, not just unilateral executive action.

• 49:37Speaker 04

  So I'll stop there.

• 49:40Speaker 02

  I think also thinking about Article Five, you know, the only time it was used was in Afghanistan, right? And I was thinking back when I was deployed there in the same base I was on, we had Danish Special Forces with us. We actually used their chow hall, you know? We have Danish Special Forces partnered in Ghana right now with US SOF, training the Ghanaian military, their special boat service, you know, like there's, there's active US work with the Danes overseas. And I can't imagine how it must be for those teams on the ground, working together, watching this happening and looking at each other, you know, because it could potentially be that the next morning you wake up and suddenly we're enemies in the same camp. It's just crazy.

• 50:15Speaker 04

  It is crazy and they're very effective. And quite frankly, I've stood at a dignified transfer for one of them. And I think this is really rubbing, not that, you know, they're taking this to account, veterans, especially of Afghanistan, the wrong way, because this is not the way you talk and treat. Allies and as as Jonathan said, the only time Article Five has been initiated has been to our benefit. And a lot of these countries sat in Afghanistan, even Iraq, which I don't even know what had to do with nine eleven for decades. And the Danes specifically per capita, I think, was one of the highest casualty rates per capita of any of us.

• 50:58Speaker 11

  As crazy as us having even talk about this is, it also begs the the crazy, the equally crazy question, you know, could this be a ploy by the this administration to drive a wedge in NATO? You know, they've already made it clear that they don't think it's effective anyway. So what would stop them from using this or even bringing this to the table just to drive wedges and form cracks in NATO to try to ultimately get it to pull itself apart?

• 51:29Speaker 04

  Point. And it's doing it. It's working.

• 51:35Speaker 03

  If we if that's a real plan within the administration, I mean, are we're actively working to for Russia's benefit then? Because NATO is the only reason.

• 51:45Speaker 02

  withdrew like a hundred, a hundred treaties out of the UN. We just pulled out of them this past week.

• 51:52Speaker 03

  Good God, guys.

• 51:54Speaker 04

  And it's I mean, let's let's let's go back to this whole world order was established by us after World War Two for our benefit. Like, we're going to write this order and we're in top of the order, right? That's a good thing. That's why the US economy is the number one in the world. It wasn't by accident, right? And we, the US's power is its friends and its ability to coordinate and form alliances that matter to everybody in the alliance. The NATO alliance is the most significant, I think, military alliance in history, I think one could argue. And it benefited us, right? So if if we rupture NATO, you know, I think there's I don't know if they're accurate, but like you're seeing some statements out of European leaders that they're already looking at how to shut down US bases.

• 52:40Speaker 03

  I was gonna mention that there was an EU minister that was like popping off on the radio somewhere. I don't remember his name, so apologies. Where he was like, if this were to go down in Greenland, like, we're gonna kick you guys out of every single base you guys are in. We're more than happy to take it over. I mean, listen, getting all the European countries to do the same thing at once, I mean. Whatever. We'll see if that happens. But even if it happened in Italy or Germany or wherever, take your pick, wherever there's US bases. That's a real like, you'd never heard something like that from a year. The Europeans always take things into consideration and they huddle and they talk about stuff and they come out with a

• 53:18Speaker 03

  really cool statement. But like, that's like real PC. But frankly, I kind of like to see them have a little bit of teeth and like bite back against this administration because this administration seems to not give a fuck about Europe.

• 53:33Speaker 04

  Might not have a choice. And remember, all the things that have to happen to do it. I mean, if you do it by force, here's one issue. I don't think the United States, the American citizen is going to want to view its country as a neo-colonial power. That's right. So I think you'll get refusing orders for real then. And I also think that at the end of this term, whoever comes next is probably going to give it back. Right? Because it was taken by force. So there's no like treaty law, none of that. I just don't see it happening. So I wish we wouldn't have to talk about it because it sounds like just a ridiculous idea. I think the Senate would step in and cut off all funding for it. I really do. I looked at comments from senators, the only one I saw that was really

• 54:15Speaker 04

  significant was talking about, well, it's talking about buying it. Right? Well, take the force off the table, even though it's not technically off the table, and look at the buying part. Well, to buy it, it would have to, you know, it's still part of Denmark. So they would have to agree. And then Greenland has to agree and Greenland gets a lot of support from Denmark, right? They have a total basically socialist system, all their healthcare, all their education, way more than they contribute unless the United States wants to give more to the people in Greenland than they give to the people in Montana or New York.

• 54:53Speaker 03

  Greenland's almost like, Greenland's almost like Kentucky.

• 54:56Speaker 04

  Yeah. Then we're gonna, then we can't match it, nor do they. And it's clear, they don't want to be part of the United States.

• 55:04Speaker 03

  Why would you want to be part of the United States? Seriously, why would you want to be?

• 55:10Speaker 04

  I mean, they don't. So

• 55:11Speaker 03

  No, if you're Greenland, if you're Greenland.

• 55:13Speaker 04

  Yeah, no, they're doing pretty good. The other part is then the Senate, it has to be a treaty. So the Senate has to pass a treaty to actually purchase Greenland and the House has to pass the appropriations.

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  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down. Rather than giving teens the answer, study mode helps teens work through problems and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default and parental controls offer families additional options like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.comPARENTS to learn more.

• 56:51Speaker 01

  Cash flow crunch? OnDeck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 57:22Speaker 04

  To buy it. Like, I mean, does anybody, I'm not an expert on the acquisition of foreign countries, but I think that's a heavy lift that it's never, and there's no interest. Nobody else in the Senate has talked about this until now. So the idea that they want to purchase and that, you know, I'm obviously an old school Reagan type Republican here, but the, the current thinking of MAGA is the opposite of this.

• 57:51Speaker 03

  Right.

• 57:51Speaker 04

  It's more on the isolationist side. It's not in the neo-colonial, let's take over, uh, you know, territory from allies. Uh, so it's, I just don't see how this.

• 58:01Speaker 03

  I mean, if I was a MAGA bro about America first, I'd be pretty fucking pissed about seeing what's going on in the last few months, gonna be honest.

• 58:08Speaker 11

  The thing I'm seeing on social media and, uh, you know, Tik Tok and, um, YouTube and all that, they are, you know, they're screaming that, you know, hey, uh, President Trump, what happened to America first? Like I've seen people full on who, when I first started watching them were all about this administration and in the last six months or so have completely turned on them completely. So I think it's gone beyond them. I think them playing to their base was for elect for votes. And then once they got into office, it was screw you, we're gonna do what we want. We don't care whether you like us or not.

• 58:43Speaker 04

  But there's representatives in the House and the Senate that, you know, hopefully they have their own agency.

• 58:51Speaker 04

  And they are, I mean, you're seeing some pretty significant.

• 58:52Speaker 03

  You think so?

• 58:54Speaker 04

  I hope so. This, this would require. Yeah, exactly. This might not help them on the mid, and I don't do politics and I don't belong to a party, but, um, I'm just looking at this from the national security perspective, like the U S, not, not either any party. This is not in our national security interest. Even the discussion is seriously fraying our alliances. And, uh, I don't know if it's recovered.

• 59:20Speaker 04

  I mean, think of, I guess I'd ask anybody that's listening, think if you were a European leader right now, like, what would you be doing?

• 59:28Speaker 03

  I'd be doing anything I can to get away from us.

• 59:31Speaker 04

  Reserve currency. Yep. Yeah, there's a lot of economic things that they could do, right? They could, like, the whole bond market is, it depends on foreign leaders, foreign decisions, right?

• 59:46Speaker 04

  This could just not go well for the United, it's already not going well for the United States. I wish we would just move on. I support plenty of the things that they've done, not plenty, but some. I try to call it objectively, but this is objectively a terrible idea even to talk. And I don't think we're going to do it, which makes the talk even worse.

• 1:00:08Speaker 03

  Yeah, Mick, I would agree with you. I mean, anybody with a normal functioning brain would agree with you, but, you know, you see officials from the administration going on news channels and spinning this as a good idea. Actual card carrying members of the administration going out there and like.

• 1:00:29Speaker 04

  Never said this before, right? So it's never been an issue. Apparently, we got the Virgin Islands with some deal. Like, we agreed never to make a claim on Greenland, and they gave us the Dutch Antilles or something like that. And that is why we have the US Virgin Islands. Like, if, if it's just going to be a might makes right, you know, what's, it's the famous quote, the strong do what they will and the weak do what they must. Yeah, yeah, right? These ideas, yeah. That looks like the new forward policy of the United States, and that has not been the United States, I think, ever. Certainly after we came to prominence after the end of, or during World War II, and certainly after.

• 1:01:14Speaker 04

  It's in our interest to be the leader of the free world.

• 1:01:19Speaker 03

  Not the Alright, boys.

• 1:01:22Speaker 03

  We got anything else? I'm not feeling good about this conversation, I'm not gonna lie to you.

• 1:01:28Speaker 11

  Is that what we do here?

• 1:01:30Speaker 03

  No, never. I almost never feel good about our conversations after.

• 1:01:35Speaker 03

  Uh, I want to thank Jonathan.

• 1:01:37Speaker 04

  Yeah, can you tell us something about your book, man? By the way, if you send me one, I'll put it right here. I'll put it right here.

• 1:01:42Speaker 02

  Perfect, yeah, I'll send you one.

• 1:01:43Speaker 04

  Everybody out there, a lot of my buddies do that write books. My stoic buddies and my national security buddies, because it's the same, same view as ABC. Don't tell them that.

• 1:01:52Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's, uh, it's right here above my shoulder. It's called Iran's Shadow Weapons, and it's about how they use covert action in intelligence operations, both overseas and inside the country, to achieve their foreign policy objectives. And it's unique because it's based on a bunch of stuff I got declassified for the first time. So a lot of it's former CIA cables, a lot of intelligence reports. Also, I translated a bunch of stuff out of Farsi that was from the regime itself that's been leaked to the, the public. And a lot of new analysis using those two sources that people never get to see. So it's almost a third of the book is just references. Uh, because I, I put a ton of actual analytical horsepower behind it. My, my idea was to kind of create like an open source product that you would hope to see on the other side of the green door.

• 1:02:35Speaker 02

  You know, but with materials available to the public.

• 1:02:41Speaker 03

  Yeah, I'm gonna, I'm gonna put a link in the description for that, so if anyone's interested, please grab it there. Um, also Jonathan's other book as well, uh, about irregular warfare. And, uh, Mick Mulroy, he's got a podcast called The Pub on the Porch, Applied Stoicisms, and check that out. Those links are in the description. Jason Lyons, links are in the description. Muscles from Brussels, uh, Andy Milburn's links are also in the description. And the best way to support the show is joining our Patreon. You get both Team House and Eyes on Episodes, ad-free and early, and you help support the show. You can go to team, uh, patreon.com slash Team House. Any and all information is in the link, the links are in the description. John, as always, thank you, man. That's, this is great. Mick, Jason, you too. Awesome.

• 1:03:26Speaker 03

  We'll obviously keep an eye on Iran and what happens. We'll keep you guys posted. Thanks a lot, guys.

• 1:03:33Speaker 11

  Thanks, Chance.

• 1:03:33Speaker 04

  Excellent.

• 1:03:34Speaker 02

  Yeah, thanks.

• 1:03:38Jack Murphy?

  Hey guys, I want to tell all of you today about a new newsletter that we're launching that encompasses both the Team House Podcast, the Eyes On Podcast, and the High Side News Outlet, which I run with Shawn Naylor. The newsletter is going to be once a week, it's going to come into your inbox, and you're going to get the most current podcasts on Eyes On and the Team House, and whatever's topical or current on the High Side. So it's another way for us to get the information out to you, as social media algorithms are pretty iffy, and you never really know what you're going to get. So this is a once-a-week email, it'll slide into your inbox, and it will have, you know, the greatest hits of that week.

• 1:04:19Speaker 06

  It's really good, man. I'm checking it out.

• 1:04:22Jack Murphy?

  The website for it is teamhospodcast.kit.com/join. Teamhospodcast.kit.com/join. Go there, and you enter into your email list, or you enter your email into the little thing on the website, and you're good to go. And that'll be it. So we really appreciate your support, and hope you'll consider signing up.

• 1:04:45Speaker 06

  Where's the link?

• 1:04:47Jack Murphy?

  The link will also be down in the description, if you're looking for it there.

• 1:04:50Speaker 06

  And that's teamhospodcast.kit, K-I-T, Kilo, India, Tango, dot com, backslash, join.

• 1:05:01Speaker 07

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 1:05:16Speaker 08

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to "I'm deathly allergic," in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 1:05:27Speaker 07

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you, you're not alone.

• 1:05:32Speaker 09

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 1:05:38Speaker 07

  So join us and hear their stories and more, because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat, it's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast, on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeartRadio app today.

• 1:05:58Speaker 10

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down. Rather than giving teens the answer, study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options, like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.com/parents to learn more.

• 1:06:25Speaker 12

  Cash Flow Crunch on Deck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds, up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:07:01Speaker 07

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 1:07:15Speaker 08

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic, in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 1:07:26Speaker 07

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 1:07:32Speaker 09

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 1:07:37Speaker 07

  So join us and hear their stories and more, because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat. It's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast, on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeart Radio app today.

• 1:07:57Speaker 10

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down rather than giving teens the answer. Study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.com/parents to learn more.

• 1:08:25Speaker 01

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• 1:09:02Speaker 07

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 1:09:17Speaker 08

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic, in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 1:09:28Speaker 07

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 1:09:33Speaker 09

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 1:09:39Speaker 07

  So join us and hear their stories and more, because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat, it's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast, on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeart Radio app today.

• 1:09:59Speaker 10

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down rather than giving teens the answer. Study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.com/parents to learn more.

• 1:10:26Speaker 13

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:11:00Speaker 07

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 1:11:15Speaker 08

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic, in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 1:11:26Speaker 07

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 1:11:31Speaker 09

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 1:11:37Speaker 07

  So join us and hear their stories and more, because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat. It's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeartRadio app today.

• 1:11:57Speaker 10

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down. Rather than giving teens the answer, study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options, like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.com/parents to learn more.

• 1:12:25Speaker 13

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:12:59Speaker 07

  Hi, I'm Jenna Ushkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 1:13:14Speaker 08

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic. In a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 1:13:25Speaker 07

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 1:13:30Speaker 09

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 1:13:36Speaker 07

  So join us and hear their stories and more, because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat. It's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast, on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeart Radio app today.

• 1:13:56Speaker 10

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down. Rather than giving teens the answer, study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options, like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.com/parents to learn more.

• 1:14:23Speaker 01

  Cash Flow Crunch, OnDeck's small business line of credit, gives your business immediate access to funds, up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:15:00Speaker 07

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 1:15:15Speaker 08

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to "I'm deathly allergic", in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 1:15:26Speaker 07

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 1:15:31Speaker 09

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 1:15:37Speaker 07

  So join us and hear their stories and more, because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat, it's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeartRadio app today.

• 1:15:57Speaker 10

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down. Rather than giving teens the answer, study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options, like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.com/parents to learn more.

• 1:16:24Speaker 13

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:16:58Speaker 07

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 1:17:12Speaker 08

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic, in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 1:17:23Speaker 07

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 1:17:28Speaker 09

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 1:17:34Speaker 07

  So join us and hear their stories and more, because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat. It's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast, on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeartRadio app today.

• 1:17:54Speaker 10

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down rather than giving teens the answer. Study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.com/parents to learn more.

• 1:18:22Speaker 01

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:18:57Speaker 07

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 1:19:12Speaker 08

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic, in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 1:19:23Speaker 07

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 1:19:28Speaker 09

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 1:19:34Speaker 07

  So join us and hear their stories and more, because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat. It's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast, on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeartRadio app today.

• 1:19:54Speaker 10

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down. Rather than giving teens the answer, study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options, like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.com/parents to learn more.

• 1:20:22Speaker 12

  Cash Flow Crunch on Deck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds, up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:20:57Speaker 07

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 1:21:12Speaker 08

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic, in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 1:21:23Speaker 07

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 1:21:28Speaker 09

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 1:21:34Speaker 07

  So join us and hear their stories and more, because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat. It's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast, on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeartRadio app today.

• 1:21:54Speaker 10

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down rather than giving teens the answer. Study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.com/parents to learn more.

• 1:22:21Speaker 12

  Cash Flow Crunch on Deck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds, up to $200,000, right when you need it. Covers seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:22:51Speaker 14

  She's been thinking about this sleepover all week, but I think about her food allergies all the time. Fortunately, her doctor prescribed Zolair, omalizumab. It's proven to significantly reduce allergic reactions if a food allergy accident happens.

• 1:23:05Speaker 15

  Zolir 150mg is a prescription medication used to treat food allergy in people one year of age and older to reduce allergic reactions due to accidental exposure to one or more foods. While taking Zolir, you should continue to avoid all foods to which you are allergic. Don't use if you are allergic to Zolir. Zolir may cause a severe, life-threatening allergic reaction called anaphylaxis. Tell your doctor if you ever had anaphylaxis. Get help right away if you have trouble breathing or if you have swelling of your throat or tongue. Zolir should not be used for the emergency treatment of allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis. Zolir is for maintenance use to reduce allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis, while avoiding food allergens. Serious side effects such as cancer, fever, muscle aches and rash, parasitic infection, or heart and circulation problems have been reported. Please see zolir.com for full prescribing information. Ask an allergist about Zolir.

• 1:23:48Speaker 15

  This is an advertisement for Zolir paid for by Genentech and Novartis.

• 1:23:52Speaker 10

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down rather than giving teens the answer. Study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.com/parents to learn more.

• 1:24:19Speaker 12

  Cash Flow Crunch on Deck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.