A Knicks Title, "Whaddya Do?" NBA Teams, the QB Pyramid, and a CFB Playoff Primer With Zach Lowe and Todd McShay

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Zach Lowe to react to the Knicks winning the NBA Cup against the Spurs (3:02). Then, they discuss the "Whaddya do?" NBA teams around the league (27:27). Finally, Todd McShay joins to break down Bill’s NFL QB pyramid before discussing the teams that need a QB in the draft and much more (01:04:54). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Zach Lowe and Todd McShay Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo This episode is brought to you by Alexa+. Our smartest, most proactive AI assistant yet. https://Amazon.com/NewAlexa This episode is sponsored by State Farm®. Don’t settle for just any insurance when there’s State Farm. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit⁠⁠⁠ www.rg-help.com⁠⁠⁠ to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Football has a play for just about everything. And whether it's a flea flicker or a tush push, you need a plan that fits your unique situation. That's why State Farm takes the time to get to know you. So they can help personalize coverage for your life and for your budget. Now that's a solid game plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.

• 0:25Bill Simmons?

  The Bill Simmons Podcast, brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. I had new rewatchables that went up on Monday. We did High Fidelity 25 years and a couple of months after it was released. Four-person podcast that included the hottest take in the history of the rewatchables from Rob Mahoney. I won't spoil it to you, but it almost caused Chris Ryan and I to convulse. So you have that. And guess what? There's gonna be another rewatchables because we are recording, I'm recording this on Tuesday night. We are recording another rewatchables tomorrow to pay tribute to Rob Reiner. We've done six Rob Reiner rewatchable movies. And one of the ones we hadn't done was The Sure Thing, which is really not available on streaming,

• 1:08Bill Simmons?

  but you can find it if you get a little creative. But we're gonna do The Sure Thing. We're gonna put that up on Wednesday night as a special bonus edition because we loved Rob Reiner and everybody is really sad out here in Los Angeles. So we are doing The Sure Thing. It's an awesome, awesome movie. I actually forgot how much I love this movie. So we're gonna be talking about it in detail and we'll talk about Rob's great career and a whole bunch of things. It's just gonna be me and Chris Ryan. So stay tuned for that on Wednesday night. And then on Thursday on HBO, third installment of our Music Box series. It's Counting Crows documentary, Have You Seen Me Lately? It's directed by Amy Scott and it's really, really good. And I would highly recommend, especially if you like 90s music, if you'd like Counting Crows at all, this is a really good one.

• 1:54Bill Simmons?

  So that is gonna be Thursday night. And then I'll have another podcast on Thursday as well. So that's the game plan for this week. Coming up, Zach Lowe, right after NBA Cup, the Knicks beat the Spurs. We talked about that. We talked about what do you do teams? We talked about the Mets, whole bunch of things. And then Todd McShay joined us as well because we had talked NFL quarterbacks. We had to talk about the college football playoffs. We had to talk about Mendoza being the number one guy. This is a really good podcast. I don't know what to tell you. Sometimes we just have really good ones. This is another one. We take a break, Pearl Jam, then Zach Lowe. This episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast is presented by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm. It's like expecting a linebacker on the football field,

• 2:37Bill Simmons?

  but getting a line cook. Sure, they both can handle the pressure when it starts heating up, but only one is stopping a touchdown. You wouldn't settle for just anything for your team. So don't settle for just any insurance when it comes to getting help you need. State Farm is the real deal. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.

• 3:23Bill Simmons?

  8:09 Pacific time. Zach Lowe staying up late on the East Coast because the Knicks have just won their first championship since 1973.

• 3:33Speaker 01

  Just like that. You're going in just like that.

• 3:37Bill Simmons?

  It's a fact. I'm happy for them. Did you see them celebrating?

• 3:40Speaker 01

  Are you sure it's a fact? Are you sure they have won a summer league championship of some kind? If we're going to be snarky, you got to be properly snarky.

• 3:47Bill Simmons?

  I didn't look that up. Hey, the NBA Cup was great. Thumbs up. Everybody plays hard. Everybody gave a shit. The Knicks actually celebrated after they won the game. It was real playoff intensity and did the job. I'm not sure it was the right location, but we had four teams that I thought I really wanted to watch. The matchups were good. It was a nice moment for the Spurs and then a nice little, hey, look out for us moment for the Knicks. So what was your biggest takeaway?

• 4:13Speaker 01

  The Knicks bench swinging the game, Mitchell Robinson, if he can stay healthy is just a massive component of everything they do. Cat sat out some of the game with a little shin thing or calf thing. Mikail Bridges was something happened with him at the end. Clarkson was huge. Kolek has earned a real role, which is going to be interesting when Shamet and McBride come back. And just, I can't say enough about how amazing Ananobi has been when healthy this season. Just an awesome game from him. Hart does what he does all the time. This is a really good team. This was my pick to make the finals coming out of the East at the beginning of the season. They're ahead of schedule, I think, given, given what some of the sort of lesser stars have done this year.

• 4:55Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Is it fair to say we have four West teams? And I'm going to include San Antonio in the title contender race, even though they'd be fourth from the West, but four West teams and an East team. And then, I don't know. I think we have five teams because I think San Antonio is a real dark horse. I don't think they're going to make the finals. I think OKC is going to. And if they don't, I think it will be Denver. And then I think it would be Houston. But I think San Antonio has, has earned dark, dark, dark horse status, right? And then the Knicks in the East. I don't, do you trust any other East team?

• 5:28Speaker 01

  It's hard to trust anybody in the East right now. I mean, the Pistons have earned some level of trust at 21 and five. And, you know, somebody will emerge, like either Cleveland gets right or Orlando gets healthy. But yeah, it's really, it's really the Knicks and the Pistons and kind of everybody else right now. And the Spurs thing is interesting because that's been the hot question since they beat the Thunder is, are they a contender? And I don't, I think people kind of don't know what to do with the term contender. Because I hear contender, and I think would not really surprise me if they won the championship. Michael Pena kind of described them as an under the radar contender with like, what does that mean? Conference finals would not be a surprise. You said dark, dark, dark horse. Like, I'm not ready to put them in the same

• 6:13Speaker 01

  circle as the Thunder and the Nuggets and whoever wins the East by default. But they're right there in the next tier. Maybe with the Rockets. I think I put the Rockets a little ahead of them. But if you told me they're in the same, you know, universe as the Rockets, I would say, yeah, I mean, they've earned that.

• 6:30Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they're, they're fourth in a four man West race for who could make the finals. But.

• 6:38Bill Simmons?

  You gotta take them seriously because they have a top six guy in the league, who I assume will be playing more minutes. They hit the jackpot with Castle. They hit the jackpot with Harper.

• 6:46Speaker 01

  Unbelievable. These guards are unbelievable, man.

• 6:49Bill Simmons?

  I had, this is, I was gonna do this later, but I'll just throw this to you now because I was really thinking about this on Saturday night watching OKC and the Spurs.

• 6:58Bill Simmons?

  It rarely happened. Like, we've had contenders. We've had more, and, and teams that seemed unstoppable, like the 2017 Warriors is a good example. We were like, oh no, hold on. But that was a team of guys that in their prime, guys that were, had been in the league for a while. It rarely happens when you have a young team with guys that, for the most part, except for maybe one guy in the team, aren't even close to who they're gonna be at. But they gave you that hold on feeling. And I actually went through all the seasons, going back to the merger, trying to figure out how many times.

• 7:29Speaker 01

  Nobody, nobody goes, nobody goes back to the merger like Bill Simmons.

• 7:32Bill Simmons?

  Nobody loves going on Basketball Reference and just looking shit up. But I thought the 77 Blazers is a great example, right? Who end up winning the title, but young team on the rise, Walton, Mo Lucas, all those guys. The 86 Rockets with Sampson and Olajuwon. I'm just talking about teams that were like, oh, this team's really talented. Wait, they're here? 95 Magic is an obvious one with Shaq and Penny.

• 7:57Speaker 01

  It's a good one. That's a good one.

• 7:59Bill Simmons?

  Either the 10 or the 11 Thunder. The 10 Thunder weren't quite ready yet. The 11 Thunder were and came really close to making the finals with a pretty precocious team of young KD, young Russ, really young Harden, really young Ibaka, where we were kind of like, oh shit, this could be the decade.

• 8:15Speaker 01

  That's conference finals against the Mavs. They lose.

• 8:17Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, 11. And then, you know, the Thunder two years ago, in, when, when they lost to Dallas. And that, that seemed really early, but we were like, man, you look at their, their guys, the picks they have coming. And now the Spurs, I think, are the next one. So that's only 16, Zach, in 50 years. There's some other ones, like the 85 Mavs, you could say, maybe 92 Sonics, 09 Bulls, the 17 Celtics, but those are the six. We're like, whoa, we're doing this now? And what's interesting is we have two teams from the last three years. And I was thinking about that Saturday night. I was like, every other team in the league would trade places with these two teams, I think.

• 8:58Speaker 01

  It's gonna be, right now, it's gonna be the defining rivalry of the NBA for the next five years. I mean, I don't know how many years. And it, you know, it started with like the Chet Wemby always crossing paths and like under 19, under 18, and there's a little, little spice there. And now it's just, you add these young guards, thunder, young wings, like, I mean, the, the amount of perimeter, youth, energy, defense, tenacity, like Harper and Castle, even when they're not making shots. And today, as good as they looked at moments, they're, you know, where are they? They're, Harper was 7 of 14, Castle 5 of 15. Like, they're standing dudes up on defense, they're swiping at the ball, they're standing up guys that are bigger than they are. They are in for all the fight

• 9:41Speaker 01

  and all the like, all the guts and toughness you need to win in the playoffs. Like, they just walked into the league with it.

• 9:47Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Harper had, he had an athletic stretch in the fourth quarter, like, in the, like, the four-minute range, four minutes left, where he hit a three. He basically made Brunson do a backcourt violation.

• 9:59Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 10:00Bill Simmons?

  He went in the corner and just grabbed this rebound with like the superhuman, how the fuck did he get there? And then brought it back and then tried to go in and make a crazy layup. But he can dial it up athletically, like, out of 10 of 10. And same for Castle, where these are two guys that could actually go toe-to-toe with all the OKC athleticism. And then you throw in Wemby as a freak. And this is a team that could talk themselves into a series against OKC. I'm not, I don't think they could win that series. They're not gonna be afraid. They're not gonna be athletically afraid. They're not gonna be afraid of the speed of the series. And then you watch Houston, Denver last night, it was the same thing. And Houston, I thought that was, first of all, that might have been the best game of the year. I know we say that like every two weeks, but that really might have been.

• 10:42Speaker 01

  Other than the refs, other than the refs.

• 10:44Bill Simmons?

  Well, the refs weren't great, but that, that stretch when everybody was sitting threes. The Rockets have an embarrassment of riches at crunch time now, where it's like, They don't even run the KD Reed Shepard pick and roll with Reed setting the screen, which I don't know if anyone could stop because they have so many other options. And then, you know, Denver is Denver, but I don't know. These are just really, really, really talented teams. It's a great, great, great, great, great, great regular season, I think. I really enjoyed it.

• 11:14Speaker 01

  And Houston being in this group is interesting because we know that Van Vliet is injured, right? Easton's injured, Finney Smith hasn't played a second for them, but Van Vliet in particular, you feel the void of a little extra on ball juice for them at times. Like they're going offense, defense late last night with Reed Shepard coming and then Akoghi comes in for Reed Shepard. It's like, what do we actually need here in this moment? And they still have to up one offense in the league and they're still amazing. Can I just say a couple of things on the Spurs?

• 11:44Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, please. Let's do it. Let's deep dive it.

• 11:46Speaker 01

  Uh, Harper, just Harper and Castle, I just can't say enough. We saw the three guards all together at the end of the game. I think it might've been the first time Fox, Castle and Harper were all on the floor together.

• 12:01Bill Simmons?

  I think Vassell sat, right?

• 12:02Speaker 01

  No, Vassell was like small ball four, which is a very interesting.

• 12:05Bill Simmons?

  So Barnes sat, okay.

• 12:06Speaker 01

  Yeah, Barnes sat, which is a very interesting gambit because it's a way to make teams guard Wemby with their centers. And we saw this sort of jockeying to like, who are the centers going to guard? Are they going to guard Hart on one end, Harrison Barnes on the other end? And, you know, I just like those guys, those guards are so good and Fox is just a perfect sort of veteran stabilizer for them. And the other thing I want to say, Wemba Yama should be noted as we're talking about the Knicks winning the cup and blah, blah. Wemba Yama, 25 minutes, minus 18, still clearly rusty, still clearly on a minutes restriction. And yet the lobs are just comical, just absolutely. Castle and Harper already know, just throw the ball up. The defense is there.

• 12:47Speaker 01

  Like this wasn't even, I don't even know if this is like 60% of Wemby. Like this was not the same guy from the first week of the season. That guy's coming and this game is different if that guy's in it.

• 12:58Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, and Harper already, I mean, you don't really watch college basketball. So you're catching Harper over the course of the season. Should be like, oh, he does that? Oh, he does that? I don't even know who my favorite rookie in this class is anymore.

• 13:14Speaker 01

  Tremendous class.

• 13:15Bill Simmons?

  Initially, it was Flag. I was like, I love Flag. And then the season started and I became infatuated with Knipple. And then Derek Queen had a moment for about a week where it's like, what's going on here? They're running the entire offense through him and you have to play five feet off him, even though he can't shoot? And he's just a walking bucket or creation every time he wants to be? I don't know what this is? And then Harper, the last week, where this kid's 19, he's got footwork that's like a very, in the Shea, Kobe vicinity, it feels like someday. On top of, he's got the size.

• 13:55Bill Simmons?

  He's just a really good teammate. He's not selfish at all. Like, he's just, he'll slash and he's always feel like he's gonna make the right play. He invents some stuff with some of the moves he has, some of these little drop step, double drop step, reverse things he does. And then defensively, he's there. Like, he's playable already. So I don't even know, out of those four, I mean, have we had four like that, that are that unique coming out of the gate in year one? I don't remember that.

• 14:22Speaker 01

  Well, and Cedric Coward is like, hey, wait, wait, like, I'm doing some pretty fun stuff in Memphis.

• 14:26Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 14:27Speaker 01

  And the other thing about Harper, I know he was only shooting like 26% from three before this game, when he went, by his standards, went bananas from three. He's ahead of schedule, working off the ball, like relocating for threes, attacking closeouts from the corner. And Fox is just spraying the ball out to everybody for easy three, for open threes. And like, sometimes Fox will go to the corner too, and like, you cook, you run the offense out. Like, they're, they're all ahead of schedule, sort of figuring out how to play with each other.

• 14:56Bill Simmons?

  I don't even remember what they gave up for Fox, other than a pick that ended up not being conveyed, and then two other picks, and then some players that I don't even remember who the players were.

• 15:06Speaker 01

  Well, Zach Collins was in it. Yeah, it's a three-team shade with the Bulls.

• 15:10Bill Simmons?

  No, I remember the three-teamer, but I don't, like, who, did they give up anybody of substance other than those two picks?

• 15:19Speaker 01

  They did not, no, Collins and Trey Jones has been pretty good for the Bulls. And they have, I think there's a 2031 Minnesota pick or swap in there that could be potentially valuable. And of course, just like the Spurs got Harrison Barnes from a, from a Bulls Kings depressing for depressing trade, they, they get like, they just jump into these Bulls Kings, or these Bulls Kings trade that should be banned by Adam Silver. That should have been the first question at the Adam Silver press conference tonight. Are you going to ban the Bulls and the Kings from trade? Forget expansion, forget Seattle, Vegas and all this. And the Spurs, things just fall into the Spurs laps from the incompetence of these two other teams who can't stop trading with each other.

• 15:59Bill Simmons?

  That would be funny if they just banned teams from trading with each other, like how you had banned people from going out together.

• 16:05Speaker 01

  We already had to ban teams from like, you can't trade picks anymore. You've traded too many picks, you're banned for trading picks. It's like, why, why not?

• 16:12Bill Simmons?

  I love that he has no answer for the Rozier trade is my, was my favorite in the press conference.

• 16:18Speaker 01

  Like, I didn't see the question, what was the question?

• 16:21Bill Simmons?

  The question was basically, um, are you close to resolution? Mark Stein had this, I tweeted about it. It was, hold on. Oh yeah.

• 16:35Bill Simmons?

  Adam, this Stein tweeted this, Adam Silver says in Las Vegas, quote, "There's no obvious solution here to the trade status of Miami's Terry Rozier," and calls it, quote, "unprecedented." I mean, there is an obvious solution, he's the commissioner, he could just make a solution. Either waive the pick or make it so that you can trade the contract, even though the guy's being investigated. But you can't not do anything, but story for another time.

• 17:00Speaker 01

  Story for another.

• 17:02Bill Simmons?

  So flag, Harper, con, queen, coward. You love this draft class.

• 17:08Speaker 01

  Edge comb.

• 17:10Bill Simmons?

  Edge comb. There's a couple of other good ones. Let's talk Knicks, because we weren't fair, we didn't talk about the Knicks enough, and that was a big win for them. When they have their five.

• 17:21Bill Simmons?

  And we, let's say we know they're gonna have their five for four rounds. Plus Robinson, plus Clarkson, Yabaselli at some point, Colek. Let's say they have their nine, they don't have any injuries. Is that a team that you think could actually beat whoever comes out of the West?

• 17:37Speaker 01

  I would say no. I mean, look, once you get to the finals, obviously you're a break, an injury, an ankle sprain, a wild occurrence, a flaker and foul suspension, something like that away from you're in the game, but I would pick the, you know, top three teams in the West. Denver, Houston, Oklahoma City over the Knicks for sure.

• 17:57Bill Simmons?

  I would as well.

• 17:58Speaker 01

  And I think it's not, I don't think it's their five. I think it's their six. I think Robinson start, come off the bench, whatever, like he's that important to their team where they have these six starters. And I do think they're gonna sniff around for one other guy. It's hard for me to do it because of how close they are to the second apron, but I think they're gonna sniff around for one other bench guy. Cause Clarkson's been up and down, Yabaselli didn't even play tonight. Shamit, you know, every time he seems to cement a role in somebody's rotation, something happens and he doesn't have a role in the rotation anymore. So I think they'll sniff around, but uh, look, everyone's got a puncher's chance in the finals, but they'd be a huge underdog over against any of those teams, I think.

• 18:37Bill Simmons?

  I still like Yabaselli.

• 18:39Speaker 01

  I do too. I don't quite understand what's happening.

• 18:41Bill Simmons?

  Might be the wrong team for him. There is a team for him, I'm just not sure who it is.

• 18:46Speaker 01

  Wait, so you, but you, you agree that you would, you would not take the Knicks over the, over any of those teams?

• 18:50Bill Simmons?

  I think the top three in the West are levitating over everybody else. And then I think it's probably next here. Spurs Knicks, Spurs slightly higher ceiling because of who knows with Wembanyama. And who knows with those young guys and who knows what happens with Castle and Harper. And then who knows if they're gonna make a trade. We talked about this when uh, I can't remember. I was, you were on my podcast last. I can't remember who was on who's last, but we talked, oh, it was when I was in New York City about the, what would Sam Presti do applying that philosophy to, what would you do if you were like, let's say the Spurs in this case, would you go for it? I just wouldn't. I would ride with this team for a year. I wouldn't do anything crazy.

• 19:34Bill Simmons?

  There are, there are deals, like they could put together contracts for a guy making 50 million a year. Like they could, if they wanted, make a run at somebody like Anthony Davis, right? Somebody of that ilk in that range. They could make a run, not that they would get Kawhi Leonard because he wouldn't go back to San Antonio, but one of these vets that's in that range. Yeah. I'm just saying, I don't think they will. I, I think this is a, hey, this is awesome. We're way ahead of schedule. Harper is already playing real minutes for us. Castle made this huge leap. We have a deep team. Like, why would we do anything? Let's see how this goes. The, the reason you wouldn't do that is because you have these expiring contracts and just like you have tradable contracts right now that

• 20:19Bill Simmons?

  you might not have in a year. And that would be the reason to do it now. But I, I would stand pat. What would you do?

• 20:24Speaker 01

  Yeah. I, I think since we did that podcast a month ago, Fox has come back and made you curious as to what this team could look like. They thrived with Wemby out. Wemby watched all that and you can kind of feel him figuring out, okay, like these guys can all do a lot of stuff. I could do the most stuff, but how does my stuff fit with their stuff? The two guards have both gone up a level. Like the conversation about a blockbuster involving any of those pieces is, is over and put aside for the, they're just not doing it. I think I could see something to your point about, we've got to do something with these contracts. Is there a Sohan plus Olynyk or so, like Sohan being a guy who some team might be intrigued

• 21:07Speaker 01

  by doesn't, is a second draft kind of player, you know, and three seconds. Does that get us another guy who can shoot a little bit and come in and play 15 minutes for us in the playoffs? They've reached the status where that kind of trade, that kind of smaller win now trade could really, really help them.

• 21:24Bill Simmons?

  I mean, could it be a Harrison Barnes, Kelton Johnson, Kelly Olynyk for Davis and Exum? Or fill in a max player with another small contract? And you throw in some picks and you just make a run for it. I just wouldn't do it.

• 21:37Speaker 01

  That's up. That's, I use the word upheaval a lot to describe mid-season trades that are just so gigantic in how they conceptually trade your team that you have to pause for a second and remember what you're asking. And what you're doing in a trade like that is A, you're doing like a two for one or a three for one. So your depth gets shallower right off the bat. And B, you're being like, all right, Wemby in year three with, you know, a lot of injuries the last two years. Just figure it out with another guy who's a center and has a broken jump shot. Just figure that out in 30 games. Good luck. It's, it's a lot.

• 22:11Bill Simmons?

  And then C, cause I think this is a position Detroit's in, which we talked about in New York. You also, you have really good chemistry and you have a team that likes each other and you're trading key guys that are a piece of that. Like Harrison Barnes, you could see Olynyk like as the old veteran towel waiver guy. Detroit Harris has to be in any trade. I think Harris is important for them. I think he's a great teammate. You could see last night in the Celtics game, like he had some really good moments in that game.

• 22:38Speaker 01

  That was, that was a good win for Detroit, by the way. I know you didn't enjoy it, but that was a, that was a tough, like fired up home crowd, fired up Celtics, lot of media coverage, chip on their shoulder, guys that you talked about, everyone's got something to prove. That was a nice win for the Pistons.

• 22:52Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, my dad went to that game. He was outraged by the officiating almost, which is par for the course these days. But he was saying, the Celtics, the way they're, they're put together now. They can, they can basically match anybody's game unless it's like Houston just pounding the boards on them. They can't really survive something like the Givante Green thing. That like, he just went nuts for four minutes and that tilted the game, the game for them like, all right, we can kind of go toe to toe with Cade and Durin, but if this is going to happen, we don't have enough at this point. Uh, but my dad, you know, Jalen had his classic awesome Jalen game, but then missed the two free throws at the end. But my dad was like, he wasn't even that

• 23:36Bill Simmons?

  mad about the missed free throws at the end because he's like, you gotta go to the game and see like how fucking hard Jalen Brown is playing. Like he is playing every possession, every minute, like, like it's like a game seven and it's unbelievable. And he's done it the whole year. I, I think he's been one of the best 12 guys in the league, but, uh, but they just, they're missing that one guy, which is like, that's why the Tatum comeback, which I know you talked about a tiny bit yesterday, but the Tatum just giving the Shireman and half of the Hauser minutes to 25 minutes of Tatum is going to be worth like five points to this team. So that's, that, that's an, I know we're going to talk about what do you do teams later, but that's a team where I don't know what they do. Cause they, they could try to get under the, that last tax and really reset the rest of the decade, or they could look around in the East and be like,

• 24:21Bill Simmons?

  ah, fuck it. Like, we're not that far away. Fuck it.

• 24:25Speaker 01

  I think the next month is going to be telling like how bunched up the East is right now from three to nine. You know, you could go on a three game winning streak and suddenly be ninth and, or three game losing streak and suddenly be ninth. We'll see, we'll see what things look like. I, I, you know, I don't think they're going to do anything super aggressive regardless of where they are. It's more like, will they, will they sell to try to cut their tax bill?

• 24:47Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. It's the, it's the shaving. And you talked about this on the, on your pod yesterday, but it's something I think we've both been hearing. There's no Yanis trade. There just isn't. The, the three teams in the West aren't trading for him and San Antonio is not trading for him. Those trades aren't happening.

• 25:04Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 25:05Bill Simmons?

  You go around the league, Cleveland can't trade for him. They're $22 million over the second apron. They have no chance of trading for him.

• 25:12Speaker 01

  There are ways, there are ways. They're complicated, but they're very complicated, but there are ways, but the, there are other.

• 25:16Bill Simmons?

  You need a lot of help from a lot of teams and that leaks as you're trying to get the help.

• 25:21Speaker 01

  Well, and their, their other problem is like, of course they're going to do their best to hold out Mobley in any kind of talks like that. But like Garland and Allen's trade value is, you know, as low as it's ever going to be right now. And that's not a good place to be dealing from.

• 25:36Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. And Allen's in this, Allen's at 20 this year, but then it jumps to 30 next year with that extension he signed. So if you're trading for Jared Allen, you're paying him 90 million starting a year from now. But well, let's, we'll take a break and then let's do some what do you do situation. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. This NBA season on FanDuel, it's all about the boost. You heard me game days being your chance to boost your bet. Make every play pay off. All customers get a 30% SGP and parlay profit boost. We have a lot of, a lot of Thursday games on the slate, including Detroit at Dallas. I like the way Dallas is playing. They're in all of these games.

• 26:20Bill Simmons?

  They might even be underdogs in that game. Orlando, Denver is going to be a really good one. Just take Denver, they just lost. Golden State, Phoenix is another one. I think Golden State is in real, real, real trouble. So I would look at Phoenix in that one. Anyway, the games never stop with FanDuel. You've got more ways to make every win even bigger. So lock in your bets, boost your odds, make every night count with FanDuel, official sports betting partner of the NBA. You must be 21 plus, present in select states or 18 plus and present in DC, Kentucky, Wyoming. Opting for a bonus issued as non-durable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply, including any token expiration, max wager amount. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com.

• 27:00Bill Simmons?

  Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by Amazon. Say hello to the all new Alexa Plus. See how Alexa can do so much more for you. Need tickets to the finals, rides to get there and a place to eat around the stadium? Help organize your schedule so you never miss a kickoff? I actually need that. Or just craving your game day spread? I'm always craving it. Just sit back, relax and talk naturally. I didn't even talk naturally right there. Just sit back, relax and talk naturally. I did it. Alexa's on it and learns your style, anticipates what's next and makes it happen across Echo and Fire TV and much more.

• 27:44Bill Simmons?

  Learn more at amazon.com/newalexa. All right, Zach, this game is called what do you do?

• 27:51Speaker 01

  Excited.

• 27:51Bill Simmons?

  We're running some of these teams. What do we do? Let's start with the Clippers. Every time I think they've hit rock bottom, it gets worse. I've never been offered Clipper tickets more, even from people who know I have Clipper tickets, than in the last two weeks. The, it's really, we're back to 2010 Zbo playing with overweight Baron Davis days of just, just dark, dark, dark Clipper times. And there's no move on top of everything else, on top of the fact that there's some whispers that this is the bomber punishment. Just be ready for a holiday news drop on that one.

• 28:31Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 28:31Bill Simmons?

  Some whispers, like a Friday 5:30 day after Christmas type of situation. They have to, they have to get something out as we're getting closer to the All-Star game now that the Clippers are hosting. They cannot go into the All-Star game without having announced what happened. And I, I think, I think we're moving closer to finding out what the punishment will be, if there will be a punishment.

• 28:56Speaker 01

  All right. That's interesting.

• 28:58Bill Simmons?

  But I don't know what they do. They don't have their pick. They have expensive players that I don't think anybody wants. And I don't know what the trade is. Like go through the other 29 teams and ask yourself, who would want James Harden for $40 million a year? I can't think of a single team except one, and I'm interested to know if you would think it's the same team as I did.

• 29:24Speaker 01

  Well, it has to be either a decent team or a desperate team or both.

• 29:32Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. So, so, so do we rule out Sacramento in this because?

• 29:36Speaker 01

  Oh, we should just, no.

• 29:38Bill Simmons?

  Cause Sacramento is always available to trade. So you, they must don't count.

• 29:42Speaker 01

  The right answer to a lot of these questions is going to be Milwaukee. If they're trying to salvage the end of the honest era.

• 29:48Bill Simmons?

  Guess who coached, guess who coached?

• 29:50Speaker 01

  Oh, you're right.

• 29:50Bill Simmons?

  James Harden, Philly.

• 29:52Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 29:52Bill Simmons?

  That's a no way. That's Doc just getting on a plane and coming home if that happens. So Milwaukee is the desperate team, but Milwaukee is also not trading for James Harden. I think there's one trade.

• 30:05Speaker 01

  I'm just gonna, I'm not gonna guess. You go ahead.

• 30:10Bill Simmons?

  What about LaMelo and Harden in a deal together?

• 30:15Bill Simmons?

  If you're Charlotte and you like your team and you've struck oil with Knipple and Brandon Miller's back and Bridges is good and you're in the East and you're not going to be one of the three worst teams in the East, there's just no scenario where you're going to be in the bottom three, your team has too much talent.

• 30:32Bill Simmons?

  What if you just turn LaMelo and Harden and now you have Harden, Knipple, Bridges, Brandon Miller and some big guys? And now you might be a play in team. And maybe you just do that overriding this LaMelo roller coaster for a minute more. And if you're the Clippers, LaMelo changes scenery. He's one of the most famous players in the league with people under 30. I think he has the biggest social media of anyone other than LeBron. It changes your, your team. I just, I thought it was an interesting one. I thought it was an interesting concept.

• 31:04Speaker 01

  Could I hang a banner in Inuit Dome that says second biggest social media following? If, if behind LeBron, because I need to hang a, I need to hang a banner for something.

• 31:12Bill Simmons?

  You could do that. That sounds great.

• 31:14Speaker 01

  The only way that makes sense to me, since the Clippers have no extras to send me or minimal extras to send me, I have to hate his contract and the entire experience of LaMelo Ball so much that just four years of this contract at 40 plus a year, 45, 42 a year, whatever it is, that I'm, that's a dump. That's not, forget the play in and like all this stuff about we're trying to win a little bit now with James Harden. Like that's, that's a, that's a disguise. The real trade is a salary dump and I am not, I'm not there with, as, as bad as this year has been shooting wise and health wise, yet again with the ankle problems, I'm, I'm not there. I'm not even close to there. Like I'm not even, I'm not even considering that if I'm Charlotte. Sorry.

• 31:56Bill Simmons?

  Not even considering it?

• 31:58Speaker 01

  No, not considering.

• 31:59Bill Simmons?

  On the flip side, if you're the Clippers, you're not putting Zubots in that trade.

• 32:04Speaker 01

  No.

• 32:05Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 32:05Speaker 01

  No.

• 32:06Bill Simmons?

  So we're not working together then?

• 32:08Speaker 01

  The Clippers have not been able, the Clippers have shoved away people calling, because the vultures are circling with Zubots.

• 32:14Bill Simmons?

  Oh, I'm aware.

• 32:15Speaker 01

  The Clippers are, are shoving people away.

• 32:17Bill Simmons?

  I don't know if it's shoving. I think it's gentle pushing.

• 32:21Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 32:22Bill Simmons?

  So let me just get this straight. I'm trying to, I'm trying to figure this out from your end because usually you're a pretty rational guy.

• 32:30Bill Simmons?

  LaMelo Ball, year six.

• 32:35Bill Simmons?

  We haven't really seen any indication that he's going to be a serious professional who's in shape affecting a team in all of these winning ways for longer than like two, three week stretches at a time.

• 32:48Speaker 01

  Disagree.

• 32:50Bill Simmons?

  He's played 51, 75, 36, 22, 47, and 16 games this year.

• 32:57Bill Simmons?

  And Zach Lowe, the most rational guy I know is telling me, it's not time yet. I need to see more.

• 33:06Speaker 01

  I think he has the most trade value of the, does anybody really want these guys? Point guards, Trey Young, John Morant, and LaMelo Ball. And it's not, and it's not close. I was actually talking to a GM about this very thing today. Another, another guy on LaMelo Ball still might be good island with me.

• 33:26Bill Simmons?

  So you're on the island.

• 33:28Speaker 01

  I'm just not like, look, it, it, I've used the word carnival a lot to describe LaMelo Ball. Like it's, it's a little bit carnival-esque and, and he flirts with getting a little bit more serious about time and score. And yeah, maybe don't do the one-legged three when we're down two with 45 seconds left in the game and there's 20 on the shot clock. Maybe don't do that. We'll have to remind you again in a week. I get it. You can't teach the height. You can't teach the vision. And this year aside, I'm ignoring the shooting this year. It's been an awful, it's been awful, awful, awful. I trust the sample size. I'm just not like it's, I'm not as optimistic as I was six months ago or whatever. I don't think it's going great. I just, why am I doing this for 36-year-old James Harden is what?

• 34:13Speaker 01

  He's going to come to Charlotte and do what? Just dribble all the time? You just get dribble, dribble, dribble. Conklinipps is going to be like, what? He's going to be motivated to do what exactly in Charlotte? Get paid and demand a trade to another team that's better? Why am I doing that?

• 34:26Bill Simmons?

  Salary dump.

• 34:28Speaker 01

  I'm not dumping that salary. It's not that bad of a salary.

• 34:32Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 34:32Speaker 01

  I'm standing, I'm standing.

• 34:34Bill Simmons?

  So you're calling, you're calling Sacramento. That sounds like your move is you're calling Sacramento and trying to talk Vivek and his team of brilliant front office advisors for some sort of LaMelo where he can get multiple players back. Do you try to get Sabonis back for LaMelo?

• 34:50Speaker 01

  I don't care with apologies to Demontes Sabonis is tremendous. If from this, I mean, we're like in crazy town now, like the Hornets and the Kings talking about a deal with Sabonis and LaMelo Ball. We've gone full on into, into crazyville. But if I'm, if with all due respect to the Kings players, the only thing I want to, I really want out of the Kings in this theoretical crazy town trade is draft picks attached to the Sacramento Kings with no protections on them. AKA the most golden of gold chips in the NBA.

• 35:19Bill Simmons?

  So you're saying LaMelo for contracts and give us some of your picks?

• 35:23Speaker 01

  Trick, trick, trick the Kings into thinking that they're the ones who are going to bring out all this potential in LaMelo Ball. Trick them into saying, do you use all the social media data I've got about how this is going to revolutionize? Get the fans who are so just done with this Kings team, get them, get young fans back in the seats. He likes cowbells, just whatever stupid sales pitches I can come up with.

• 35:47Bill Simmons?

  So it's like a, yeah, we'll take Schroder and we'll take Malik Monk. Take one more contract and we'll take your first rounder this year. And how about a swap three years from now? And what about like your 2033 first? So that's how you, that's like seven years from now.

• 36:04Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 36:05Bill Simmons?

  What do you think? Can you just whip that in there?

• 36:07Speaker 01

  Vivek, you'll have been chased out of town by a mob with pitchforks by them. Just you don't care about that pick, right?

• 36:12Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, right. All right. I'm glad we talked that out. I kind of like the idea of Harden. Yeah, I liked it more than you. You, so you think Harden would just go to Charlotte and just pack it in? I think he'd kind of like living down there.

• 36:25Speaker 01

  Great. What does it do for me? What does it do for my, what does it do for anybody?

• 36:28Bill Simmons?

  I'm just trying to get out of LaMelo before the stock drops. I mean, case in point, the Ja Morant stock dropping and the Trey Young stock dropping. Right. Yeah, there's an inflection point where all of a sudden. You don't have the asset in the same way, which brings us to the Grizzlies.

• 36:44Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 36:45Bill Simmons?

  Ja Morant.

• 36:45Speaker 01

  So we decide. So wait, our decision about what are you going to do with the Clippers is just cry, cry and try to get a media job?

• 36:51Bill Simmons?

  Well, you said.

• 36:52Speaker 01

  Is that the answer?

• 36:53Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, you said Zubotz is untouchable.

• 36:55Speaker 01

  I didn't say that. I said they're shoving it away. That's all.

• 36:58Bill Simmons?

  Is there a team in the league that would trade for Kawhi? Like, would Detroit be like, yeah, let's track Kawhi?

• 37:05Speaker 01

  I, I think you'd have to look at the desperation teams, um, of which the Clippers are one and they already have Kawhi.

• 37:12Bill Simmons?

  Maybe they should trade Kawhi to themselves.

• 37:14Speaker 01

  It's, it's gonna be, it's gonna be tough.

• 37:17Bill Simmons?

  Now, I don't, I don't see a market for Kawhi.

• 37:21Bill Simmons?

  The only way is if it like went horribly with LeBron and, but then even that doesn't make sense because LeBron's gonna want to be on a playoff team. I can't think of a team for him.

• 37:30Bill Simmons?

  Grizzlies.

• 37:33Bill Simmons?

  Ja Morant, Brooklyn.

• 37:36Bill Simmons?

  Doesn't hurt their tanking plan because he doesn't play anyway.

• 37:41Bill Simmons?

  You can't, it's like, oh no, he's gonna help us win games. Like, no, don't worry about that. He's gonna be in street clothes. And you could try to talk yourselves into, yeah, next year we'll put him on the front of Barclays.

• 37:55Bill Simmons?

  Go get some Phineas pizza, watch Ja Morant.

• 37:57Speaker 01

  He's, he's gonna displace Tyrese Martin from the life to like five times larger than life billboards on the side of Barclays Center.

• 38:05Bill Simmons?

  He could be the last guy in the Jumbotron thing at day when they show the five guys with the music. And now the Brooklyn Nets with the guys like standing next to skyscrapers, Cam Thomas doing the turnarounds.

• 38:17Speaker 01

  All right. So the Nets just drafted three point guards and a couple of other point somethings in some ways, whatever Danny Wolf is.

• 38:27Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, probably doesn't make sense.

• 38:29Speaker 01

  I'm still bringing in Ja Morant, who's shooting like zero percent from three and a little bit above zero from two.

• 38:35Bill Simmons?

  We do in the NFL, we talk about like during the NFL season in like week 15, there'll be a gambling line for a game and it'll be like Patriots, seven points over, over, I don't know, Pittsburgh. It'd be like, whoa, before the season, the look ahead line was Pittsburgh by four. That line shifted 11 points. The same thing with a Ja Morant trade. We'd be like, wow, Brooklyn could just get Ja Morant for nothing. If I had told you that in August, they would have jumped at that. But now it's December and, um, but yeah, I think you're, I think you're right. And that's the only team I could think of because they have the cap space. They could accommodate any kind of deal. They have a couple of guys to give back. Other than that, I don't, where's Ja Morant going?

• 39:17Speaker 01

  The, the team that was by far the best Ja Morant team in every possible way is Sacramento. Contracts, need a point guard. I mean, you could have made a case for a few teams when, when the first disgruntled Ja Morant news conference thing happened, you could have made a case for Miami. You could have made a case for a couple of other teams, Orlando, whatever. Like so much has happened, all of it good for those teams. Most of it good, Miami's on a losing streak and bad for Morant. Like I, I just don't, if, if he doesn't look substantially better than he's looked in the, this whole season, in the next six weeks, like I don't, I don't think he's tradable right now, to be honest. Like he's, he's just a, he's not playing well. He's a negative for his team.

• 40:03Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, we see this happen in football sometimes where with like tight ends and wide receivers that played with a certain level of physicality. And then they get a little older and the physicality fades away a little bit and there's not like a plan B, which is what I see when I watch him, because the greatest thing about him was also the thing that made us worried that his career was going to be cut short. Like his just recklessness going to the rim. It was unbelievable. And now, now that he doesn't quite have the same recklessness, not really sure what's going on. Not to mention he can't play all the time.

• 40:34Speaker 01

  He can't make, he's shooting poorly from the rim, from floater range, from three, where he's always been a poor shooter. It's just not going well. If I'm the Grizz, I'll tell you what I am doing. I'm calling the Warriors. I'm trying to get Pat Spencer and I'm uniting the Lacks brothers on, on one team. I want both the Lacks bros on one team.

• 40:53Bill Simmons?

  I'm sorry to my podcast audience that I was so late on this lack story. I think it's one of the great stories of the decade for the NBA. I can't believe that somebody played lacrosse for four years and then came back to college with their fifth year of eligibility and basically walked onto a basketball team and within a couple of years is part of the Warriors rotation. But this is a sports movie. This makes no sense. And these are two sports that don't really have a lot in common. Like, I could see if it was like, he played lacrosse and now is in the MLS, or he played MLS and now he's playing professional lacrosse. But going from lacrosse to basketball was just, it kind of broke my brain. And he might be the number one irrational confidence guy in the league this year. The Warriors version. His brother might be second.

• 41:38Speaker 01

  When he gets going, it's Pat Spencer. I have to remind myself, Pat's on the Warriors, Cam's on the Grizzlies. When Pat Spencer gets going, the Warriors, the bench is super, super into it. They clearly like him a lot.

• 41:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, he really carries himself. Yeah, so Ja Sacramento, which brings me to the next what he do is Sacramento. And here's what I wrote down before we even started talking about this. Kings, you have to roll the dice with Zion, Trey, LaMelo, or Ja. I think their season is at that point. Like, you just gotta, you're now at the roulette table and you've already lost a ton of money. And you're like, fuck it.

• 42:15Bill Simmons?

  Well, I'll put it on black. And that's it. 22 red. And you're at that stage of the night. And I just think, if I, out of those four guys, I would roll the dice on Zion over the, over the three guards. I don't know where you stay. How do you rank them?

• 42:31Speaker 01

  Well, I mean, he's certainly the most interesting and his contract is, offers me the most flexible because of how it becomes, it only becomes guaranteed basically year over, over. It's like non guaranteed until it's guaranteed every year.

• 42:45Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 42:46Speaker 01

  But talk about a guy who never plays. I mean, when I saw his name at the box score the other day, I was like, oh, okay. I just, my brain just sort of assumed I won't see Zion again for a long, long time. And now he's back.

• 42:58Bill Simmons?

  It's, he's on the pleasant surprise All-Stars when you're in league passes. Like, is that Zion? Hey, he's playing.

• 43:05Speaker 01

  And the thing about this discussion, less so with the other guys, is

• 43:12Speaker 01

  What's in this for me as the Pelicans? Yeah, I get, I get off this Zion thing, how he never plays and his conditioning is an off and on issue and just the, the whole franchise seems to just be held in limbo because of him. And I, and I get that for the honor of Zach Levine opting into a $49 million deal next year. Is DeMar DeRozan involved?

• 43:34Bill Simmons?

  Are you reporting that?

• 43:36Speaker 01

  What? No, I'm just, I'm not reporting that. I'm just saying if I'm Zach Levine, I'm, yeah.

• 43:41Bill Simmons?

  I think, I think he's opting in.

• 43:43Speaker 01

  Or, you know, I mean, Sabonis is a good player. I, I, but why am I doing that for the Kings? I'm trading like the only good thing about my franchise for Zion Williamson. I, I just, it's, it's a hard one. The guards are more interesting to me because they do actually, you could sell the fan base on, we overpaid Dennis Schroder to be the only point guard who plays really on our team. And then we had to get Russell Westbrook to be another one. And we don't play the point guard that we drafted a couple of years ago. Like, we, like, we got, this is something.

• 44:14Bill Simmons?

  They really didn't have to sign Russell Westbrook.

• 44:17Speaker 01

  You know what they didn't have to do is trade Tyrese Haliburton and alienate De'Aaron Fox to the point that he also wanted to be traded and then end up with no point guards.

• 44:25Bill Simmons?

  They didn't also have to get rid of Mike Brown to hire Doug Christie.

• 44:29Bill Simmons?

  Golden State.

• 44:30Speaker 01

  Oh, boy.

• 44:31Bill Simmons?

  So my dream scenario for them would be them getting Sabonis somehow, but there's really no way to do it without them trading Jimmy Butler. So I don't want to, I don't think they want to lose his 12 shots a game. So probably keep him. I don't know what Golden State does.

• 44:48Speaker 01

  That almost went, that almost slipped by me.

• 44:51Bill Simmons?

  Ah, it's like three shots a quarter. You gotta, you gotta keep him.

• 44:54Speaker 01

  Did you see the email story today?

• 44:57Bill Simmons?

  You know, somebody.

• 44:58Speaker 01

  The Joe Lacob email story?

• 44:59Bill Simmons?

  So what, what, what, what was it exactly? I heard about it. I forgot to deep dive it because I was busy doing a bunch of stuff. Was it an email to like owners or to a fan?

• 45:08Speaker 01

  A fan emailed Lacob, a fan, Justin Dutari, I hope I'm pronouncing your name right, telling Lacob that he needs a quote, real second option, that Jimmy Butler's quote, tools are being underutilized. And blaming the lack of positional size on the roster. I am so frustrated. Dutari ended his email. Lake of replies, you can't be as frustrated as me. I am working on it. It's complicated. Style of play, coaches desires regarding players, league trends. Jimmy is not the problem. And then the guy publishes the exchange on Reddit.

• 45:46Bill Simmons?

  See, we can't have nice things. You can't just have an owner responding to a fan. Just giving the guy some time. Puts it on there.

• 45:53Speaker 01

  So people, people dove into the coaches desires regarding players as a

• 45:59Bill Simmons?

  A Steve Kerr dig?

• 45:59Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah. Not thinly veiled dig at Steve Kerr.

• 46:03Bill Simmons?

  Oh, yeah. I saw, I saw his press conference where he is basically like, oh, yeah, Joe's being Joe, whatever he said. I actually watched the last two Warriors games where Curry was awesome in both games and they lost. And I thought that was alarming. They should never lose games when he's awesome.

• 46:20Speaker 01

  You think Curry hitting 12 threes, you should get a W?

• 46:23Bill Simmons?

  That should be a guaranteed. We're definitely winning this game. And the fact that they didn't, I think would make me super nervous if I was paying that money for a Warriors roster, if I was rooting for the team. I don't think they have a lot of outs other than either trading Jimmy or Draymond. Kaminga is getting DMPs. The fantasy land of them getting a real asset for him in January 15th is comical. It's same thing for like Cam Thomas. Like the Nets aren't going to be able to trade Cam Thomas right now. What are you, what are you getting for him?

• 46:52Speaker 01

  Well, he's, he's injured too, and he's

• 46:54Bill Simmons?

  That's what I mean. But they were like, we'll sign him and whatever. But then he wasn't even playing well before he got injured.

• 47:00Speaker 01

  No, I think it's Kaminga and picks, you know, because the Warriors have picks at their disposal.

• 47:05Bill Simmons?

  Why am I trading picks? For, for what purpose? I'm going to be one of the three best teams in the West? There's no trade that fixes them. Let's, let's give them every asset they have, they trade for Giannis. Are they one of the best three teams in the West? They're not. I wouldn't do that. Let's say they could trade Jeri Mon and Butler and all their picks for Giannis and Kuzma. Does that do anything for them? I don't think it does.

• 47:28Speaker 01

  Yeah, it gives you a little bit of a better roadmap for like the immediate post Steph era. But no, this year, I mean, not only are they not one of the top three teams in the West, they're going, they're going to have to go through the play in again, which means they're going to have to struggle to get to eighth or the seventh seed and get hammered by one of these teams at the top of the West. It's just.

• 47:45Bill Simmons?

  They're too small.

• 47:46Speaker 01

  Looks over, it's been over and it's, it's just riding it out. No.

• 47:53Bill Simmons?

  I can't say Al Horford has come back to haunt the Celtics.

• 47:57Speaker 01

  I don't know what it is with this. It's, it's a string of coincidences mostly.

• 48:05Bill Simmons?

  People leaving Boston and then not being good?

• 48:08Speaker 01

  Like Porzingis is sick again. Like I just wouldn't, and I know that started in Boston. So it's not quite apples to apples. It's like, what I just, I'm not going to trade for anyone from the Celtics for a little while. I'm so like Marcus Smart is having a little bit of a vibe.

• 48:22Bill Simmons?

  Oh, this is interesting.

• 48:24Speaker 01

  From Isaiah, from Isaiah, from Isaiah Thomas to now these guys get traded from the Celtics or leave the Celtics. Al Horford didn't get traded, but it's like buyer beware. I don't know what's going on. Buyer beware. Drew Holiday, they got to like rescind draft picks and it's like another trade.

• 48:40Bill Simmons?

  Robert Williams.

• 48:43Speaker 01

  It's a lot. It's a lot of guys.

• 48:45Bill Simmons?

  It's pretty good. Boston's just such a great place to live. People don't know what to do and they leave. I had Charlotte written down just with the question, how do I turn LaMelo into a guard and a big man? Can I get, turn him into two guys somehow?

• 49:00Speaker 01

  Sure. You want Zach Levine and Demontes Sabonis?

• 49:04Bill Simmons?

  I don't know if I want Zach Levine with Demontes Sabonis, but I think that would be their goal.

• 49:09Speaker 01

  Do you want Jeremy Grant and Robert Williams?

• 49:14Bill Simmons?

  For LaMelo?

• 49:16Speaker 01

  I'm just, I'm just throwing out, I'm literally looking at the standings and reading you.

• 49:20Bill Simmons?

  Jeremy Grant looked good the other night.

• 49:22Speaker 01

  He's, he's fine.

• 49:23Bill Simmons?

  He's been playing well this year. Yeah. Well, anyway, I'd like to see Charlotte improve their team because I like some of their guys. Cleveland, 22 million over the second apron. You seem to think they have more flexibility to do some movement than I do. I, I think it's been, people would say other teams are the most disappointing team in the league, like the Clippers. The Clippers thing makes way more sense to me than Cleveland up being basically a 500 team. And not looking like they like playing basketball with each other. I think that's more surprising to me than the Clippers.

• 49:53Speaker 01

  A sea change from the feel good, everyone sacrificed for the greater good, balls flying around, every shot's going in. And some of it is just the shots are not going in, but it doesn't look or feel the same. And maybe it's just as simple as the Garland, like Garland appears to be a broken player physically right now with no end in sight to it.

• 50:14Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, cuz you figure if even if they're gonna decide, we gotta let's officially decide between Mitchell and Garland. It would be crazy to bet on Garland when physically, even though a lot of that hasn't been his fault, but I just.

• 50:29Speaker 01

  It's there's no decision. It's Donovan Mitchell's team. The guy's been a first team.

• 50:34Bill Simmons?

  I know that. I'm just saying like if if you were like, wow, we can get all of this for Donovan Mitchell and we could still keep Mobley and all that. Also, I don't know where Mitchell would go. Yeah, the Cleveland thing. So it was the over under when we did the pod was 56 and a half.

• 50:48Speaker 01

  You guys talked me into the over. I'm so.

• 50:50Bill Simmons?

  I went over. It was one of my locks.

• 50:52Speaker 01

  Do you remember? Do you remember I went under? I went under and you guys were aghast and you were so aghast that you bullied me and it's like, this is why you don't take shit from bullies. Just stick. Just stick to your freaking.

• 51:02Bill Simmons?

  It wasn't. You just get we're jealous. We were making really good cases.

• 51:05Speaker 01

  I know.

• 51:06Bill Simmons?

  Boston, we talked about, and then the last team is Dallas. And I am in the I don't think Dallas should do anything camp and I've been in that camp the entire time and I think they're gonna be a playing team no matter what happens and maybe a little bit better than that when Kyrie comes back. Well, cuz that's a team that there's a real ceiling of Kyrie can come back and play 25, 30 minutes a game, but I just, I like Davis next to flag and I wouldn't want to break that up. I think he's had a huge impact on flag when they played together. It's noticeable.

• 51:34Bill Simmons?

  I just wouldn't trade him.

• 51:36Speaker 01

  What would you do? I think you're right on on this in part because I just don't think the offers to make it worth my while are going to be there. What I would not do is entertain extension talks with him unless there's a discount that is so staggering that I can't even imagine he would entertain it. But I'm fine rolling into next season with Kyrie plus Davis plus flag plus whatever left over cuz they are aproned pretty severely.

• 51:57Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 51:58Speaker 01

  Coming up. I'm I'm I just don't think there's gonna be anything like the optics of trading Luca. For Anthony Davis and the flotsam they got and then trading Anthony Davis for like Kristaps Porzingis is expiring contract and a heavily protected first round pick is just whatever the fake deal you want to make is just so bad that it's I'm not doing it.

• 52:20Bill Simmons?

  I'm not doing either, but they traded Luca for Anthony Davis and Cooper flag in a number one pick.

• 52:27Speaker 01

  That was the vision.

• 52:28Bill Simmons?

  That's what that's what the division was. Any other team we didn't mention?

• 52:32Speaker 01

  Yeah, there's a team that I I mean, it's. It's strange that we didn't mention them in any context. We didn't mention them among the good teams in the West. We didn't mention them among teams that could make an important trade in part because it's salary wise difficult for them to make a trade. The Minnesota Timberwolves are just sort of out there and nobody really talks about them except when they blow a lead in the most hilarious and inept fashion possible, which they seem to do once every two weeks. And that's just in the DNA of John Krasinski and I literally have a text joke that we just text each other. Nobody melts down like the Minnesota Timberwolves after every single meltdown that

• 53:12Speaker 01

  happens. But they're, they're pretty damn good. And they're aware, I think that they need another ball handler because this Dillingham Bones conglomerate is unproven to say the least and Mike Conley is old and out a lot. I just think for a team that's very good, has a top eight player at worst in Anthony Edwards, who I think is getting better every year. And another guy who's played at an all-star level in Randall and McDaniels has made a leap. I think it back to back conference finals, I think they're flying a little bit under the radar.

• 53:49Bill Simmons?

  I posited this to Rob Mahoney last week, a Rob Dillingham and a protected pick, like a heavily protected pick for Alvarado.

• 53:59Speaker 01

  I think that's too much for Jose Alvarado.

• 54:01Bill Simmons?

  How about Dillingham for Alvarado?

• 54:06Speaker 01

  Yeah, I'm just, I can't, if I'm Tim Connolly and I put in all that equity and this guy's a top 10 pick, I can't do it. I gotta, I gotta give him every chance to succeed. If, if what I'm getting back is a backup, backup.

• 54:17Bill Simmons?

  What if he was the eighth pick of just a bad draft?

• 54:21Speaker 01

  He may well have been. Still not doing it.

• 54:25Bill Simmons?

  There's nothing more dangerous than overrating somebody who has taken high in a draft that turned out to be really awful.

• 54:31Speaker 01

  I don't think it's that dangerous if, I mean, I like Jose Alvarado. He's, he's one of my favorite little sneaky guys to watch. I don't think it's that dangerous if all I'm missing out on is Jose Alvarado.

• 54:43Bill Simmons?

  Really hard for them to do anything unless it's the Dillingham deal. And you have to put Conley in it, who's important to them from a leadership standpoint. And I don't really know the other player. I handed in my Ringer 100 today.

• 54:54Speaker 01

  So did I.

• 54:55Bill Simmons?

  Some announcements.

• 54:56Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 54:58Bill Simmons?

  Alpern Shengun, welcome to the top 15.

• 55:02Speaker 01

  Let me see where I had him.

• 55:05Bill Simmons?

  I'm 14th.

• 55:07Speaker 01

  I mean, I can tell you for sure, not unreasonable. I had him 15th. I had him 15th. So we're right, we're right in line.

• 55:19Bill Simmons?

  What was my next one? Oh, Khan Kanipal, welcome to my top 40.

• 55:25Bill Simmons?

  I had him 40th.

• 55:26Speaker 01

  I did not have him 40th.

• 55:27Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I figured no.

• 55:28Speaker 01

  Although, although I will say, once you get down, I, once you get down to 30 ish, the amount of flux in my rankings surprised me from just a month or two ago.

• 55:44Bill Simmons?

  Stefan Castle, welcome to my top 50.

• 55:48Speaker 01

  We're 51 for me.

• 55:50Bill Simmons?

  I had him 49.

• 55:53Bill Simmons?

  Kawhi Leonard.

• 55:54Speaker 01

  Oh, boy.

• 55:55Bill Simmons?

  Here's a parting gift. You've left the top 50 for me. I'm not sure when you're gonna play and your team loses every week.

• 56:03Bill Simmons?

  I had him 54.

• 56:07Bill Simmons?

  Probably lower than everybody else, but you know what I value him as.

• 56:10Speaker 01

  I had him higher than that because he has played well this season. And again, like, there's a lot of flux, a lot of flux.

• 56:18Bill Simmons?

  Derek Queen.

• 56:20Speaker 01

  Yes, he's in.

• 56:21Bill Simmons?

  Welcome to my top 60. I had him 59.

• 56:25Speaker 01

  I, I mean, I can't argue with it. I had him, I had him 72 because I'm being conservative, but I had, like, all the good rookies are in my top 100 now.

• 56:35Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I had, I had Harper 89, and I actually think I wish I had him lower than that.

• 56:40Speaker 01

  I had Harper 83. And again, in a month, he could be 48. Like, that's how, that's how much flux there is.

• 56:49Bill Simmons?

  Did you go Jokic, SGA, Giannis, Luka, Wemba Yama? Or did you have something different? Okay.

• 56:55Speaker 01

  I did.

• 56:56Bill Simmons?

  And then Edwards, six?

• 56:58Speaker 01

  Seven.

• 56:59Bill Simmons?

  Who'd you have six?

• 57:02Speaker 01

  Stephen Curry.

• 57:04Bill Simmons?

  I had him eight. I had Brunson slightly ahead of Curry.

• 57:08Speaker 01

  It's fine. I mean Brunson, Edwards, Curry, Brunson are six, seven, eight. Mitchell nine in some, in some order.

• 57:15Bill Simmons?

  Where'd you have the heart of the Celtics, Jalen Brown?

• 57:18Speaker 01

  Twelve.

• 57:19Bill Simmons?

  I had him 12 as well. All right. Sounds like we were lying. Oh, last one. Jalen Johnson?

• 57:26Speaker 01

  Twenty-two.

• 57:27Bill Simmons?

  I had him 20.

• 57:29Speaker 01

  And, and there's a case that he could be, I think 16 is probably his ceiling, but if you wanted to say based on his recent play, that you have him over some of the guys I have in the 16 to 21 range, which is Booker, Towns, Siakam, guys like that, I'd, I'd be fine with that.

• 57:47Bill Simmons?

  He's been jumping out of the TV this year. And we didn't talk about Atlanta, and I'm sure Atlanta is going to do something, especially with the Porzingis contract that is now an expiring, they have a giant trade exception. And they should make a move when there's a spot open in the East Finals right now, I feel like, next to the Knicks. I want to sit and do something. It's the one Yanis team that could happen. It's the one Davis team that could happen. It's the one name of star team that could happen. I think if it's either a big guy, um, any sort of a more reliable guard or slash swing.

• 58:22Bill Simmons?

  I don't know if they are ready to get rid of Trey yet. I don't know if you've heard on that, but.

• 58:26Speaker 01

  I think for the right price, for sure, they would, not for sure, but I think they would. I'm glad you brought, brought Yanis back up because before you said, there's no Yanis trade. And the top of the West teams are out. And I, I generally, I mean, I said on my pod yesterday or Monday that I'm starting to wonder if this is going to be a summer thing. After all, like we all thought it was going to be before the season, when he, you know, when they signed Thanasis and he sort of recommitted publicly for the year.

• 59:01Bill Simmons?

  That's my bet, summer.

• 59:03Speaker 01

  I, I would bet that way too, but there's a couple of wild cards. Number one is Atlanta. And number two is. And now there's all this noise, is Milwaukee going to try to buy to placate Giannis one last time or just to try to save the season?

• 59:17Bill Simmons?

  Where's their two contracts?

• 59:19Speaker 01

  Agreed, but the other wild card is like, he's out for a few more weeks. What if they're like one in 12 in their next 13 games? And it's just, the season is, is over, over for them. Like I, the wild card is always that plus he finally comes out and says it's time. And then I think anything's possible. Other than, other than Spurs, Rockets, you know, whatever.

• 59:43Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 59:44Speaker 01

  You know?

• 59:44Bill Simmons?

  The problem is not having their pick makes this so much more complicated.

• 59:50Speaker 01

  Again, it's why I can't rule out the teams. I mean, Atlanta's got Milwaukee stuff. Portland is not going to trade for Giannis, but they've got Milwaukee stuff and would work their way, I think into some kind of trade. Like, it's why I can't, I can't close the door completely.

• 1:00:03Bill Simmons?

  All right. Have you closed the door in the 2026 Mets yet?

• 1:00:08Speaker 01

  No, I'm not happy. Not happy, but you know, baseball, baseball, there's a lot of off season left to go. Where's, I'm, I'm a little, I'm, I'm a little sad still.

• 1:00:19Speaker 01

  I, you know what I, you know what I'm tired of? I'm tired of Instagram tributes to guys you couldn't even bother making a contract offer for. How about if you don't make a contract offer to the all time home run hitter on your franchise? You don't get to do an Instagram tribute to him, thanking him for all the great stuff he did to you. You just have to move on with life and say, good luck with the Orioles.

• 1:00:40Bill Simmons?

  Baseball will break your heart.

• 1:00:42Speaker 01

  It, it will.

• 1:00:43Bill Simmons?

  You've only seen this once?

• 1:00:45Speaker 01

  One time, Boogie Nights.

• 1:00:47Bill Simmons?

  Just came out on 4K Ultra. I paid for this, by the way. This is not a paid advertisement. This is my favorite movie of the last 30 years.

• 1:00:54Speaker 01

  It's a great one. It's a great one to be watching on the night that your 10 year old daughter walks out and has to go to the bathroom in the middle of the movie and is like, hey, what's, where are mommy and daddy, what are mommy and daddy watching right now?

• 1:01:05Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, and you have a violence free house too.

• 1:01:09Bill Simmons?

  Though, though you won't watch any TV shows, movies that cross the line in any way, right?

• 1:01:14Speaker 01

  I mean, I will.

• 1:01:17Bill Simmons?

  Everybody has to be gone?

• 1:01:19Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, for, for like, you know?

• 1:01:22Bill Simmons?

  I did have an idea for you because as, as everybody knows, you're Team Croatia with the World Cup coming.

• 1:01:28Speaker 01

  That's right, baby.

• 1:01:29Bill Simmons?

  And they're playing England, Chris Ryan's team.

• 1:01:33Bill Simmons?

  I think you guys should start feuding now, like really build it up WrestleMania style. Like, let's get some angles, some bad blood.

• 1:01:41Speaker 01

  It always works out great for England in the World Cup.

• 1:01:44Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, let's go. That's what I'm talking about. Throw some darts.

• 1:01:48Speaker 01

  Does he want to talk about the 2018 semifinals at all or, or, you know, I don't know.

• 1:01:54Bill Simmons?

  See, let's go. You should have him on.

• 1:01:56Speaker 01

  This is what's going on in my life right now, by the way. So I have Croatia's schedule in the World Cup. They have their three group games. I have the NBA Finals, the NBA Draft, and fifth grade graduation and of elementary school all and like that day moves around based on how many snow days we get during the year. And I'm trying to triangulate all this and figure out which of Croatia's group games is the right one to go to. And I feel like I need to hire somebody because it's too complicated for me.

• 1:02:27Bill Simmons?

  Like a personal assistant?

• 1:02:28Speaker 01

  But I'm go, I'm going for sure. Like I, it's, it's, it's a bucket list thing for us that we're going. It's one way or the other, we're going.

• 1:02:36Bill Simmons?

  My son graduated eighth grade from a school he was at for 10 years, The Willows. It was a school that we loved and my daughter went there too. So it was really like 13 years at The Willows for us. And his last day, the graduation, I had to go. It was game four of the 2022 Warriors Celtics Finals.

• 1:02:54Speaker 01

  Oh, boy.

• 1:02:55Bill Simmons?

  Which ended up becoming the Steph Curry game.

• 1:02:57Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:02:57Bill Simmons?

  So I knew if I stayed in LA, I knew, I know I have these powers. I knew the Celtics were probably going to lose. I had that on my conscience. And then not only did they lose, but it turned out to be the most important game of Steph Curry's career. And I'm kind of glad I wasn't there as the years pass because as you know, he's my favorite non-Celtic. So watching my favorite non-Celtic murder my team, I probably think I'd still be in my seat. And it would have made me not like Steph Curry. So in a way, maybe it was good that I wasn't there.

• 1:03:26Speaker 01

  I don't think it would have. I was there. It was amazing. And I think you would have done a hat tip, a mental hat tip and just gone and had a drink somewhere.

• 1:03:37Bill Simmons?

  It's crazy how much he needed it as the years passed now. Where if that doesn't happen, there's a lot of yeah, but with his career and that just like took away the yeah, but there's no yeah, but for him now.

• 1:03:48Speaker 01

  I mean.

• 1:03:48Bill Simmons?

  It's like Kobe in 2009, same thing like you can, it's gonna be the yeah, but oh, no more, yeah, but fuck you.

• 1:03:55Speaker 01

  It's a fun and weird championship and I sure like people would have nitpicked the how many did he win before the Durant cap spike thing, but he's averaging 30 points a game right now for the Warriors.

• 1:04:07Bill Simmons?

  I know.

• 1:04:08Speaker 01

  It's like, I'm cool with, with Steph either way at this point.

• 1:04:12Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how many more years he can be this good. Cause there'll be moments during these games now where he just looks exhausted. Like that, those two games, the, the recent two, when he was exploding, they'll cut to him in the fourth quarter and he's just like, he, he's almost like exasperated how hard his job is, but he knows, he still knows he's great at it. I just don't know how sustainable that is. We'll see. They certainly don't make it easy for him.

• 1:04:39Speaker 01

  No.

• 1:04:40Bill Simmons?

  I'd like to see Jimmy Butler take more shots.

• 1:04:43Speaker 01

  You're like, did you, is, is, what did I say? The guy's name was Justin DiTuri?

• 1:04:47Bill Simmons?

  That might've been Justin. That might've been me. Yeah. So let's run some plays for Jimmy Butler. Come on, guys.

• 1:04:54Speaker 01

  Sil Bimmens at gmail.com, email Joe Lacob.

• 1:04:59Bill Simmons?

  Lacob will never respond to another, he'll never respond to another fan. All right, Zach Lowe, you got a podcast on Thursday. Did you get back in your Twitter account?

• 1:05:06Speaker 01

  Not yet. Not yet. We're working on it.

• 1:05:08Bill Simmons?

  Jesus. Yeah. All right. Good luck with that. Say hi to everybody in Connecticut. See you soon.

• 1:05:13Speaker 01

  See ya.

• 1:05:13Bill Simmons?

  Thanks. This episode is brought to you by Sony Pictures Classics. A perfect crime film, says the Daily Beast. John Tortore gives a career best performance. Don't miss the acclaimed new thriller, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York. Tortore stars as an aging master pickpocket, whose latest score puts him in the crosshairs of a ruthless crime family. It's also starring Giancarlo Esposito, Tatiana Maslany, Will Price, and our guy, Steve Buscemi. See the film that the LA Times calls instantly classic, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, now playing in theaters nationwide. This episode is brought to you by Expedia. You know how at the end of the season, your team goes to Cancun?

• 1:05:55Bill Simmons?

  Sometimes earlier than expected, sometimes after blowing a 3-1 series lead. But what if you went to Cancun with Expedia? Save up to 30% when you bundle and save. You can book the flight or the hotel now, then book the rest later. In all fairness, though, hopefully your team doesn't go to Cancun. 123 Cancun. Or if they do, you go with them. Expedia, the one place you go to go places. Sign in to save savings vary. All right, we're taping this part of the podcast. Tuesday afternoon, the man, the myth, the legend is here, Todd McShay. His newsletter is fantastic. His podcast is great. This is McShay time right now. Playoffs for college plus a draft board. You have a number one guy now. We'll talk about that in a second. I wanted to talk football QBs first in the NFL.

• 1:06:40Bill Simmons?

  I sent you a pyramid.

• 1:06:41Speaker 02

  You did.

• 1:06:41Bill Simmons?

  First of all.

• 1:06:42Speaker 02

  I like it.

• 1:06:43Bill Simmons?

  First of all, Josh Allen is just right there now. Number one, it's like, this is like the least controversial number one argument we've had in a couple of years. Right? It's Allen, drop off, next guy. Who's your next guy?

• 1:06:56Speaker 02

  First of all, I was at the game on, on Sunday with Allen versus May. And, you know, a quarter in, kind of felt like New England was establishing dominance. And Drake had rushed for two touchdowns and, and the MVP chants are going. And it just felt like not a changing of guard, but it just, it almost felt strange. You know, like I'm watching Allen on the sideline and they don't have a lot of answers. And, and things looked easy for New England. And then the rest of the game happened. My takeaway was both can be great and both are great. But as the game progressed, especially in the conditions, it was freezing.

• 1:07:40Speaker 02

  It was, you know, mild snow coming down. You could tell the difference was very clear that Josh Allen is just a more advanced passer at this point. Now Drake May, if you go back and look at Allen early in his career, I mean, some of the inexperience, some of the, the lack of the pinpoint accuracy, you see the same things from, from Drake May. But it was very clear when the four quarters were over that one guy is a notch above. So when I see your pyramid here, I can't disagree with it. And I would absolutely have Stafford there, Stafford there as well. I always like to ask myself this question.

• 1:08:16Bill Simmons?

  I had Stafford too. So just so people know, I had Allen Stafford, May. May is the third guy right now.

• 1:08:22Speaker 02

  And I ask myself this question. I'm kind of curious your process too, because we do it, whether it's in tiers or a pyramid like you have here. When you think to yourself, all right, I got one opportunity and I'm going to go coach or I get to put together GM this roster and I get to play one playoff game or Super Bowl, when everything on the line. Honestly, who am I going to take? Am I taking Stafford for that game or am I taking Drake May? And my answer right now is Stafford. I just lean on the experience. He's been through the wars. He's more pinpoint accurate. May brings mobility to the table that Stafford doesn't, but I just like my odds with Stafford more than I do, regardless of the supporting cast, throw that out of the window. So I would agree with you 123 here.

• 1:09:07Speaker 02

  The third.

• 1:09:08Bill Simmons?

  Wait, can I stop you on that Stafford point?

• 1:09:10Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:09:10Bill Simmons?

  I think that one of his best skills, and it's certainly gotten better when he's been with McVay and he's had better talent. But there's a problem solving piece with him.

• 1:09:19Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 1:09:20Bill Simmons?

  That I think is the last level for May and he might be two, May is great. He might be two years away from like that game Sunday, you could feel it slipping away, right? Buffalo gets the ball to start the second half. Pat's dude like a three and out or whatever happened. Buffalo scores again. And you know, at some point they only had one first down in the second half and it was on that long Henderson play, I think.

• 1:09:43Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:09:44Bill Simmons?

  They just couldn't put together drives and there was some point in that game where he had to realize like, it's right now. I gotta figure this out. And I just think he's a young QB, you know? And the game kind of slipped away, whereas Allen, I think he's been enough of these now where it's like 20 and nothing. We're fine coming back. I've been here before. I don't care about the weather. We should be able to move the ball and come back. I, he's the number one guy for that right now where he, I, did you feel safe when it was 20 and nothing? Cause I didn't.

• 1:10:14Speaker 02

  Not completely for New England. No, not completely. I it felt like Buffalo had to figure out how it was going to attack on offense.

• 1:10:23Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:10:23Speaker 02

  What I didn't expect was the the poor tackling and the inability to stop the run at certain points in the game from New England, but that's I guess a different subject for a different day.

• 1:10:33Bill Simmons?

  And the flags, the flags were not great. Even Vrabel complained about the frags today. Flags. He pointed out that they had led the league in offensive holdings during the year, Buffalo, but they had none on Sunday. And it's like, that's just curious. He was doing that thing.

• 1:10:47Speaker 02

  I hate like, and I was there with young kids and, you know, I don't want anyone to think that any of this is rigged. And, you know, like

• 1:10:55Bill Simmons?

  No, because Buffalo deserved to win.

• 1:10:57Speaker 02

  They did deserve to win. But two things can be true. They deserve to win. But if you are a conspiracy theorist, you're like, yeah, the NFL really doesn't want a playoff run without Mahomes and Allen, you know?

• 1:11:11Bill Simmons?

  Oh, now you're speaking my language. I love this. This is

• 1:11:14Speaker 02

  It crept into my mind and I'm always the last, I'm the, I'm the defender. I'm always on that wall. But it felt like that. Anyway, all right. I do want to get to this. Quarterbacking is not, the NFL is not fair, right? In a lot of ways, like to athletes and how and what the body can, what it can do to your body and all those sort of, where it is fair is with quarterbacks. And I say this because early in careers, when you have your most mobility, whatever that is, whether it's Lamar Jackson, Drake May, Josh Allen mobility, or a lesser degree, when you're most mobile, you need that mobility because you don't have the problem solving of Stafford. Or Joe Burrow, or obviously going back to like

• 1:11:56Speaker 02

  Manning and Brady and Breeze. So early in the career, you, you need that mobility to get it. And Drake May gets himself out of a lot of the troubles that he, he still is, you know, working through his young quarterback with that mobility. But Stafford doesn't need it. You know, that's, that's kind of the beauty. And he'll get to a point where he doesn't need it. Drake May nearly as much. The third rung, though, is where I start to have some issues.

• 1:12:20Bill Simmons?

  All right, I'll read it to the audience. So after Allen Stafford May, I had love Prescott Purdy. Then had Burrow, Lamar, Stroud, Goff, and Lamar is really legacy versus what we've actually seen this year. And then I had Herbert and Nix 11 and 12. And I'm happy to move those guys up. Be my conciliary on this. Herbert's been the hardest one because he has no offensive line. His weapons are fine. The production's been okay, but they keep winning games and I just don't know where to put him. So help me out.

• 1:12:53Speaker 02

  I guess my question was, as I was reading through this, is this like where we are right now in this moment? Is this a encapsulating the entire season? Or is this what we think, what we kind of know they like Burrow is when healthy and happy and protected, Burrow's up there with Allen.

• 1:13:14Bill Simmons?

  You're right.

• 1:13:15Speaker 02

  In my, but how far?

• 1:13:17Bill Simmons?

  But when he's sounds depressed in press conferences and puts up a goose egg.

• 1:13:22Speaker 02

  And it plays, he played depressed. It's one thing to sound depressed, to play depressed, and to do it against the same opponent two weeks ago that you just carved apart.

• 1:13:31Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:13:32Speaker 02

  Is that one's that one you can do an entire show on. It's, it's kind of, you know, it's scary to think where he is mentally to put that out on tape on Sunday.

• 1:13:43Bill Simmons?

  Do you think it's justifiable for him to be there mentally though? Because between the offensive line and the fact that they just don't spend money and you're in this conference with all these franchise QBs and you, you basically, you have the water pistol in a gunfight?

• 1:13:57Speaker 02

  I mean, it did it to Carson Palmer.

• 1:13:57Bill Simmons?

  I think it was all starting to dawn on him.

• 1:13:59Speaker 02

  It did. Yeah. I think he had like a realization. And I mean, did Carson Palmer, look at how that finished. Excuse me. I think he was Schefter had a great statistic about what forced Andrew Luck to retire. And it was whatever number of sacks in X amount of games. And it was like 13 fewer games and Burrow had been sacked 20 or 30 more times, whatever the number was significantly more in 13 fewer games to get to this point. And so you just, you wonder about his, his mental state and where he is. But Purdy at three in the third run?

• 1:14:41Bill Simmons?

  So I had him, I had him sixth overall, Purdy. And I do think he's having. Kind of an underrated year.

• 1:14:50Speaker 02

  But like Mac Jones' QBR was was like 12th, you know, based off of.

• 1:14:57Bill Simmons?

  I had I had Mac Jones on this list. He's a few rungs down.

• 1:15:01Speaker 02

  No, I know, but I'm sad. I think you have to take into account.

• 1:15:04Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:15:05Speaker 02

  You know, the what's what's around him to a certain degree.

• 1:15:07Bill Simmons?

  Oh, this is it. So you're in the anti Purdy camp. I like this because Purdy is the most polarizing QB out of all of them.

• 1:15:13Speaker 02

  And I feel like I like him, but I feel like this is this is beyond.

• 1:15:17Bill Simmons?

  Okay. So you would you flip? Who would you put if I move Purdy out? Who would you move into that? Do you agree with Love and Prescott?

• 1:15:24Speaker 02

  Four and five? I actually do. I do. And I think love and love is exactly right at four.

• 1:15:31Bill Simmons?

  And I think. So you know what's interesting? Because this is a pyramid. I can do whatever I want. I could just have the third rung just be love and Prescott.

• 1:15:38Speaker 02

  I think it should be.

• 1:15:39Bill Simmons?

  Down to a different level.

• 1:15:42Speaker 02

  I honestly don't know. I might have Purdy down with. I would pop Herbert up to the fourth rung.

• 1:15:50Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 1:15:51Speaker 02

  Because I just don't like. You can't lose both phenomenal offensive tackles have that little protection. I honestly wouldn't mind. Yeah, I would move Purdy up to the third rung. I mean, I'm sorry, I would. I would move Herbert up to the third rung, Purdy down to the fourth.

• 1:16:08Bill Simmons?

  So you'd have Herbert sixth overall. All right, I'm gonna trust you. Because I I'm admittedly like I don't see Herbert correctly sometimes because I don't think I put. When I evaluate him, I don't think I put into account all the obstacles that the Chargers have thrown on him.

• 1:16:25Speaker 02

  It's so.

• 1:16:25Bill Simmons?

  And bad luck injuries. I mean, it's not the Chargers fault. Slater got hurt and all got hurt, but that offensive line is really bad.

• 1:16:32Speaker 02

  There's an organization in the NFL that has. I feel like we're going on a decade now. Every single year. We get to December. At some point, is it bad luck? Or we are we evaluating the wrong players? Or we? I don't know. Is there something wrong with our training staff?

• 1:16:47Bill Simmons?

  Can I offer you one more option?

• 1:16:49Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 1:16:51Bill Simmons?

  Karma.

• 1:16:53Bill Simmons?

  They moved from San Diego. There's good people in San Diego.

• 1:16:55Speaker 02

  There are good people in San Diego.

• 1:16:57Bill Simmons?

  Who works on our podcast.

• 1:16:58Speaker 02

  Yeah. Who you ripped from my show.

• 1:17:02Bill Simmons?

  I did.

• 1:17:03Speaker 02

  He's the greatest clip guy in the history clip guys.

• 1:17:06Bill Simmons?

  I acquired him in a trade.

• 1:17:07Speaker 02

  You did. I just waiting for what I'm getting back.

• 1:17:10Bill Simmons?

  The San Diego people though, what did they do? It's like we, yeah, we have a shitty arena. So you want us to pay for another one? Like, why do we? The teams are all worth six, seven, eight million a year. Why do we have to pay for this? Anyway, the charges are gone and I do think there's some karma with it.

• 1:17:31Speaker 02

  But I think if we adjust the Purdy and Herbert a little bit.

• 1:17:35Bill Simmons?

  Okay, I'm happy to tweet that.

• 1:17:36Speaker 02

  Borough Lamar, Goff is in the right rung.

• 1:17:39Bill Simmons?

  Yep.

• 1:17:40Speaker 02

  Stroud, it's nice to see back up in that rung.

• 1:17:43Bill Simmons?

  So I started him. I'm in the fantasy playoffs and I had Baker and Caleb and I weighed both of them and just went all in on CJ Stroud against Arizona. Cause I thought there were real signs that he, you know, he's got his weapons back. Woody Marks when he's actually out there. But they have a bunch of like decent running backs, but Stroud's got his mojo back.

• 1:18:01Speaker 02

  He does.

• 1:18:02Bill Simmons?

  Like for real. And I, and I think he's a real wild card for the playoffs and somebody I do not want to see in the seventh seed of the Patriots or the two seed.

• 1:18:09Speaker 02

  They might be the most dangerous team in the playoffs.

• 1:18:12Bill Simmons?

  I know. They're 13 to one to win the Super Bowl. Like they're not in that even the second level of Super Bowl odds. And to me, they're, I think it's Buffalo, Houston and Denver. I would have as, as the three teams I'd be the most afraid of.

• 1:18:25Speaker 02

  Why am I still not buying Denver?

• 1:18:28Bill Simmons?

  Well, they answered all the questions last week though, right? That Green Bay game was really impressive. I thought Nix was great in that game.

• 1:18:34Speaker 02

  He was. But I can, I can still think, I just in the playoffs, I just, I don't buy it. I don't buy it.

• 1:18:42Bill Simmons?

  There's some game management shit with them that I think I would be concerned about if I was a Broncos fan. There's some weird fourth down stuff they do. They're like unnecessarily aggressive sometimes.

• 1:18:52Speaker 02

  Yeah, but.

• 1:18:52Bill Simmons?

  And they've had some luck in the end of these games.

• 1:18:54Speaker 02

  I was just gonna say, but they keep winning the, the one score games. They keep winning them. I mean, the defense you can't argue against. And it's great to see Bo Nix where he is. And I'll tell you what, it was one of the all time, as I like to say, onions moves. To to draft him where they drafted him to go all in to go all in and to be like, that's my guy. I don't care if the rest of the league has him in the second round like that.

• 1:19:17Bill Simmons?

  So that so that fifth here I have now has Purdy, Nix, Mayfield, Hertz, and Darnold. And the biggest question for me, and I'll throw it to you because I might be glass half empty on this guy, too. Lawrence is the next guy at the next rung at 16. And he's had, he's played way better the last couple of weeks. It's undeniable. They've been playing bad teams. I still don't trust it. Some other people do, and they're like, finally, he's comfortable. He's got a good coach. Do you trust this?

• 1:19:46Speaker 02

  No, I trust Caleb more with with his coach than I do Lawrence with his.

• 1:19:51Bill Simmons?

  Interesting. How come?

• 1:19:57Speaker 02

  I think Caleb's buying in. I mean, Lawrence is as well. I think Caleb is more talented. I don't know that I trust. Trust is the wrong word with either of them. If we get into a playoff situation. But

• 1:20:13Bill Simmons?

  I don't trust Lawrence. I'm never gonna trust Lawrence.

• 1:20:16Speaker 02

  I don't know that I can either. And I had such a high grade on him. These are two, these are the two guys that based off of my grades coming out of college, should be up with like Stafford, May, Love, you know, in that range. And so

• 1:20:27Bill Simmons?

  The one thing with Caleb that he has that I don't think Lawrence has in the same way is Caleb just has one wow play a quarter where you have him on a sack or you and he just gets out of it. He Houdini's

• 1:20:40Speaker 02

  That's what I'm saying. There's a little bit more ability.

• 1:20:42Bill Simmons?

  As many plays per game as anyone.

• 1:20:43Speaker 02

  And there's a little bit more F you to his game.

• 1:20:45Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:20:46Speaker 02

  Do you know what I mean? Like in that moment, and it can go awry, you know, but he's dialed that in a lot. And he's capable of making a mistake. I still in a pressure moment, you just don't know. But I just, if you need one, I think, I mean, I definitely want Caleb under center more than Lawrence if I need one, you know?

• 1:21:07Bill Simmons?

  We don't have to do the second half of the pyramid, but I did want to ask you about a couple QBs. I love Shuck on the Saints.

• 1:21:14Speaker 02

  Me too.

• 1:21:15Bill Simmons?

  I'm actually all in on him.

• 1:21:16Speaker 02

  He was my guy last year.

• 1:21:17Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I know he was and it seemed a little crazy because of his age, but you went all in on him.

• 1:21:23Speaker 02

  All in.

• 1:21:23Bill Simmons?

  I think he's for real. I like, I think they're done. They don't need a QB. They should ride with him. I think he's legitimately solid.

• 1:21:30Speaker 02

  I was going down to Mobile, Alabama for the Senior Bowl. It was, I think, the McShay Show, the first time we went on the road, right?

• 1:21:37Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:21:37Speaker 02

  And I got the list from Jim Nagy, who was the executive director at the time, and I hadn't watched, I'd seen all the quarterbacks and studied them. I hadn't done much on Shuck, so I did a little bit prior to that. During the week, I really liked him. And then I came back before the Combine. And I went in like full on diving in film room, then like got to know, you know, talk to some people, some scouts about his background, what he's been through, and it just clicked for me. I'm like, why not? He's more emotionally mature and has been through more. He was in Trevor Lawrence's recruiting class.

• 1:22:14Bill Simmons?

  Wow.

• 1:22:14Speaker 02

  And part of that, like Elite 11 and was like supposed to be one of the next guys, you know, he was, he was Herbert's, excuse me, heir apparent at Oregon. And then he bounced, he bounced all around and wound up at Louisville with Brahm, who kind of, both the Brahms, who wound up like getting it out of him and the light finally, you know, turned on. And so I, I just, and his makeup and his love for the game and he's kind of a junkie and he's always around it and he's had it ripped away. He told me a story, we were talking at the, at the Combine, like I literally was being carted off the field. I think it was at Texas Tech and he's like, I'm, my football career is done.

• 1:22:53Speaker 02

  It's gone. I don't know. Like what, who am I? What am I? You know, so like there's something about quarterbacks who come in the league and have been through a lot. And I, and that's what I liked about Shuck and seeing him, you know, he thought he, I was with him at the Manning Passing Academy and he was saying, you know, I'm going to be the starter and we're, and to see that that wasn't the case and even early struggles his rookie year to get, to be put in this spot and to play the way he has is kind of awesome to see.

• 1:23:15Bill Simmons?

  He has two qualities I really like. One, in the fourth quarters, he can, he can come back. Like, there's a resilience to them. Like, if they're down seventeen, seven or something, or twenty-four, seventeen, you, you feel like that he's gonna make a run, right? But he's also really tough. Like, he, he takes big hits on that team. It's not like that's like a great blocking team. And even in the game, the Carolina game, which I watched that entire game, I just thought he got fucking walloped a couple times. And he just gets up, you know? And I, I think there's a, there's something, there's a charisma to him and a, and a toughness to him that I think, I think works. I, I just think they have a QB.

• 1:23:55Speaker 02

  I do too.

• 1:23:55Bill Simmons?

  So I was excited for them, because it's not like a lot of good things are going on with the Saints. I, I wonder, like, you mentioned about these guys, these late bloomer guys who have high pedigree. This is something I'm always fascinated with, with the NBA. If the Celtics are in this situation now with Jordan Walsh, who's only twenty-one, who's been playing a lot for them as a wing guy, and is emerging as this really good defender. But if you go back and you look at his class, he was like number twelve in the ESPN Top One Hundred, and then played college for like one year on a team that had a bunch of wings, and they kind of bet on the pedigree, which is something they've done over and over again with some guys. Some guys have the pedigree, but it just takes three, four, five years to figure it out. And then other guys haunt you because you think they're gonna figure it out, and they never do.

• 1:24:40Bill Simmons?

  So, it's a little dance.

• 1:24:41Speaker 02

  Yeah, it, it is. And it's, it's interesting with, we've mentioned Lawrence and, and Caleb, right? And they were can't miss, you know, clearly the number one guy, number one coming out of high school, number one in college. And there's, like I said with Chuck, there's, there's something to either having it ripped away or enduring some of those struggles in college.

• 1:25:06Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:25:06Speaker 02

  Where you come in hardened a little bit, and, and it hasn't been all handed, not handed, nothing's handed, but it hasn't been, it hasn't come easy, you know? And so...

• 1:25:17Bill Simmons?

  So who's the guy in college right now that could be that guy? Who's the high pedigree, I took some lumps, maybe bet on me when my stock's a little lower guy?

• 1:25:29Bill Simmons?

  Because it seems like we have a bunch of them in the draft this year.

• 1:25:32Speaker 02

  Yeah, I was gonna say, you know, like Drew Aller, I, I just, I can't bet on...

• 1:25:38Speaker 02

  Maybe it's Club Nick, Cade Club Nick from Clemson. Although I, I think he's a career backup, but could wind up, you know, pushing through.

• 1:25:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:25:52Speaker 02

  But he's been through some stuff. At least Dante Moore has been through, like, he went to UCLA. He was a five star, elite 11, all those things. Was supposed to be the next great one had, and things went poorly after five games. Got, uh, you know, got benched, uh, took a sabbatical year as they're calling it now at, at Oregon and just kind of sat back and learned with Will Stein. He comes out this, this year as the starter and everything's great. And then he kind of hit a mid-season with receiver injuries and everything, kind of a lull.

• 1:26:23Bill Simmons?

  Well, plus you started blowing him up. I don't think he could handle the McShay pressure.

• 1:26:27Speaker 02

  I know.

• 1:26:28Bill Simmons?

  He put the McShay spotlight on him. He was like blinded. He's like, ah, if, yeah. Talk and she believes.

• 1:26:34Speaker 02

  I do feel like sometimes anytime when I go all in too early on someone that, and I think it's more of a jinx than any pressure I put on a player.

• 1:26:41Bill Simmons?

  It's like buying flowers for a girl after a second date. It's like, oh, this is going so fast.

• 1:26:46Speaker 02

  Yeah, I don't know. I, I don't know.

• 1:26:50Speaker 02

  But, but to see him finish the season strong and now all of a sudden Will Stein is offensive coordinator. I was pushing and I talked to some scouts who talked to, to Dante Moore's camp, right? His mom, his dad, his agent, the coaches. Everyone was saying he's going back to school, but now Will Stein leaves. Dante Moore's playing well. We're hearing, you know, Arch, obviously he's going back. Lenora Sellers going back. Lot, uh, Soresby from Cincinnati is kind of looking at his draft stock, but probably going to transfer.

• 1:27:19Speaker 02

  I, I think there's a chance that Moore could wind up reversing course now and wind up in this draft. And this class, like for all the touting in the preseason, I'm here to be the, you know, I've, I've admitted it before. Like they, it just didn't pan out. You got Fernando Mendoza and then maybe Dante Moore and even Ty Simpson, who I love and think he's going to have a great future at Alabama. He's not ready. And so maybe there's just two first round guys and it's a big dip before potentially we have one of the greatest quarterback classes in the history of the NFL draft in 2027.

• 1:27:53Bill Simmons?

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• 1:28:36Bill Simmons?

  Whether it's a pumpkin spice coffee that goes splat in your seat or a weekend tailgate that leaves your trunk full of gear and who knows what. You're going to want WeatherTech in your vehicle. Whether you call it fall, autumn or spooky season, whether the mess is your fault, the kids, the dogs or the weather's fault, you're going to want WeatherTech for American-made floor liners and a cargo liner that laugh in the face of fall weather. Visit weatherTech.com today. You put out your like preliminary, preliminary big board. You had Mendoza, the clear one. Reese, the linebacker from Ohio State, too. And then Moore, three, even though he's 20.

• 1:29:10Speaker 02

  I know.

• 1:29:11Bill Simmons?

  I mean, out of everybody you had in your top 10, Moore was the one my eyes gravitated to because it's such a tough one, right? It's like, clearly, clearly hasn't spent enough time in college. Clearly has incredible talent and is one of those situations where if he, at 20 years old, went to the wrong team with the wrong coach and the wrong infrastructure, I think it's just a disaster. But if he went to a team like the, a 10 out of 10 would be the Mahomes-Reid situation, right? In 2017, you go, there's a starter, you don't have to play for her, you sit there. I don't know if that's a situation that exists in the top six of this NFL draft. So I don't know. Like if you were, if you were his concierge area, would you tell him?

• 1:29:51Speaker 02

  Almost everyone on the, on the high rungs of this, of this Bills QB pyramid, right?

• 1:29:57Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:29:58Speaker 02

  He's got 36 starts in college or more. Almost everyone.

• 1:30:01Bill Simmons?

  Is that true?

• 1:30:03Speaker 02

  Yeah. And, and the ones who don't are in like the high twenties, right? And below.

• 1:30:08Bill Simmons?

  So the move is for him to stay for a year, bank some starts, bank some experience.

• 1:30:12Speaker 02

  I think so.

• 1:30:13Bill Simmons?

  Cast your lot in a tougher draft class.

• 1:30:15Speaker 02

  Yeah. And still be, so what if you're the third or fourth or fifth quarterback taken next year? Maybe you wind up going to a better place. I mean, look at Bo Nix. You know, he goes to Denver with a great defense and a team that, you know, is not nearly as shredded and dismal as Washington was at the time or Chicago was at the time. Um, I don't know. I just.

• 1:30:41Bill Simmons?

  Well, I mean, think about it like NBA, I think it matters a lot more. There's a huge money disparity with like the top four picks as it drops down in the lottery. There's prestige. In football, like all that matters is you're trying to get to your second contract where you can get between 40 and 60 million a year. Right? So.

• 1:30:59Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:30:59Bill Simmons?

  If I'm, I would much rather go 12 than be in a good situation.

• 1:31:02Speaker 02

  If he's the number three pick, let's say, if I've got him at three, he's the number three pick in the draft. He's going to make about 36 million guaranteed over five years. Right?

• 1:31:12Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:31:13Speaker 02

  So you're looking at, uh, you have seven, seven plus million per year.

• 1:31:18Bill Simmons?

  Versus like 26.

• 1:31:21Speaker 02

  Yeah, but he's probably going to make, I don't know, four or five million to go back to Oregon. That's the difference now that it's a luxury that.

• 1:31:29Bill Simmons?

  Good point.

• 1:31:30Speaker 02

  That players didn't have, quarterbacks did not have before and all players, but certainly that position.

• 1:31:35Bill Simmons?

  You're starting the clock a year earlier on that big contract though.

• 1:31:38Speaker 02

  Yes. But when you're old, when you're 20, you know, and you're looking now, well, I'll be 21 going into 22. I've got, you know, and then I'll be 27, 26, 27 at my, if I wait a year, I'll be 26, 27 for my first contract. That's, those are the discussions that, that are being had. Like I'm, yes, I'm pushing it back a year, but it's not like I'm losing that much money in, in my final year at Oregon. So.

• 1:32:04Bill Simmons?

  But this is why agents are awful, though. Because the right agent is gonna tell him and his family like, look, he's gotta come out now. Every year he doesn't come out, he's costing himself $50 million. And they'll just do Jedi mind trick it. So it's like, you're leaving so much money on the table four years from now if you don't come out.

• 1:32:23Speaker 02

  And the business part of it is wild. We're talking about a 20 year old, right?

• 1:32:27Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:32:27Speaker 02

  Who now has control and is in a leverage. He's in a position of leverage when he goes and negotiates with Oregon.

• 1:32:35Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:32:35Speaker 02

  Through with his agent, you know, through his agent saying, all right, if I do come back, A, what's the, what's the money? B, I need this, this, and this guaranteed. So that's, I know I have one great freshman quarterback will be, I mean, a receiver who will be a sophomore, but I need a guarantee of two portal receivers and I, and I get to help chew, you know, like, that's something that it's brand new to the sport. And I'm not saying it's healthy, but it's, but it's.

• 1:33:01Bill Simmons?

  My son's 18. I don't even trust him with a postmates order at this point.

• 1:33:04Speaker 02

  Right?

• 1:33:05Bill Simmons?

  I'm gonna, he's gonna be hiring multiple staff members and recruits.

• 1:33:09Speaker 02

  And who's my coordinator? And, and so it's wild what's going on in college, but it's where we are.

• 1:33:16Bill Simmons?

  Well, let's, can we talk Mendoza? Because you've really, he's won you over. It's like watching a rom com. We've hit the end of the rom com when the couple just ends up together. Like you're in on Mendoza. This is.

• 1:33:27Speaker 02

  It's a rom com where I.

• 1:33:28Bill Simmons?

  Game won, won, won you over for good, it seems like.

• 1:33:32Speaker 02

  It's a rom com where I, I fell in love with him early in the plot. Right?

• 1:33:36Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:33:36Speaker 02

  But I, but I was wary of how am I gonna, you know, is this, is this my forever? Or, or do I just really enjoy? Is there a lot of fun?

• 1:33:45Bill Simmons?

  Friends are telling you like, no, no, Dante Moore, he's, he's so great.

• 1:33:49Speaker 02

  Lenore Sellers is a better athlete.

• 1:33:54Speaker 02

  And so. And so I'm early because remember back in back in July, we did, we were breaking down all these quarterbacks. We weren't even going to do a full show on, we had done Arch, we did Club Nick and Aller and Nussmeyer and Lenora Sellers and all the, and John Matier. And we get, we're like, should we do Mendoza? Does anyone really care about a Cal transfer to Indiana yet? Or should we just wait?

• 1:34:18Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:34:19Speaker 02

  And, and luckily Dan Comer from our show was like, no, we need to do it. Let's do it. So I dove into the tape and I watched and I was like, oh, this guy's got stuff. And he's mobile and he's got a big arm and he's got a little bit of like this charisma about him. And he kind of doesn't care in big moments and he's, but he's turning the ball over a lot. And he's, and he should be turning the ball over even more and he's making a lot. So he's got a lot of developing to do, but I love where he's going, that system. But then early in the season, it was like RPO stuff and felt like he was kind of a, a robot working within the system. But then he had the Iowa game and then he had the Oregon game and none of it was beautiful. You know, top to bottom, but there were moments in the clutch.

• 1:35:04Speaker 02

  And then the Penn State game, again, he's with this out without his top receiver. He's got this like third string, young receiver, Baker, who's going to, who winds up having a monster game. And he makes that throw at the end of the game.

• 1:35:16Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:35:17Speaker 02

  And so in Ohio State wasn't beautiful, top to bottom, but this is a defense, this is like a Rocky four. Like there's no, there's no knocking out this, this monster, this giant, you know? And, and he found a way and he hung in there and he made that big throw at the end of the game. And it's like, oh, this is just who he is. It may not always be pretty. And so, and I like, he's goofy, man. He's Kirk Cousins meets Kurt Warner, you know, like it just the interviews and who, but he knows who he is. And he doesn't stray from that. And he, I, yeah, I, I keep falling more in love with him. And we're, we're getting towards the end of the rom com where I'm like, yeah, I'm, I'm all in on this guy.

• 1:35:58Speaker 02

  Even though I, I see the flaws, like the eyes drop in the pocket and he gets, he gets kind of worked up at certain times. But that's something that can work out in maturity from a skill set and from that clutch gene standpoint. He's got a lot of the traits that some of the top guys in the league have.

• 1:36:15Bill Simmons?

  Casual fan bill is, has one concern.

• 1:36:19Speaker 02

  The interviews?

• 1:36:22Bill Simmons?

  I've just never really seen it work with superstar NFL QBs when the interviews are that goofy.

• 1:36:27Speaker 02

  I knew it. We hadn't talked about it. I knew, I know.

• 1:36:30Bill Simmons?

  No, we haven't talked about it. I've been saving it for you.

• 1:36:32Speaker 02

  So that's, that stuff does not fly. I don't know.

• 1:36:35Bill Simmons?

  It's so weird and unconventional, his style, that it almost seems like an SNL sketch. And I don't under, I don't fully understand it. And if he's like this in interviews, is he like this in the huddle? I just need more information. Or he needs an interview coach, but something is

• 1:36:51Speaker 02

  No, I don't think.

• 1:36:52Bill Simmons?

  Very alien-y about it. Like, like he doesn't seem like a human being. And it's just like, this is just weird. What's he doing?

• 1:37:00Speaker 02

  I think he's just kind of a nerd. You know, I just think he's kind of, it's like.

• 1:37:06Bill Simmons?

  I mean, it worked for Russell Wilson forever, right? Russell Wilson.

• 1:37:09Speaker 02

  Yeah, Kirk Cousins, man. Kirk Cousins.

• 1:37:11Bill Simmons?

  Kirk Cousins.

• 1:37:12Speaker 02

  Overly excited. Warner.

• 1:37:15Bill Simmons?

  It's, yeah, it's a little, it's like, is this a shtick or is this who you really are?

• 1:37:19Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:37:19Bill Simmons?

  So, I don't know.

• 1:37:20Speaker 02

  Derek Carr, I felt like it was a shtick.

• 1:37:23Bill Simmons?

  Hmm. Interesting.

• 1:37:25Speaker 02

  And so I, I never bought that one. And that made some uncomfortable moments in Bristol. And I just never fully bought that one. And he wound up having a better career than, than maybe I, I expected, but still.

• 1:37:35Bill Simmons?

  Uncomfortable in what way? Like in the production meeting?

• 1:37:39Speaker 02

  No, just like be there with his agent. I had a whole list of players. It was, my list was pretty close to undefeated. Anytime someone who I said, who I was lower on sought me out either personally or through an agent and, and came after me in Bristol or anywhere else. Almost every single one of them were busts or failed to live. Cause they cared. I found, so I kept it on my phone. I kept this, it's called the list on my phone, my notes page. And, uh, and he was one of them. And I, he wasn't a bust certainly, but he never.

• 1:38:09Bill Simmons?

  Never really totally made it.

• 1:38:11Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:38:11Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, listen, the Mendoza thing, from an entertainment value standpoint, is gonna be really fun. Cause he is just, every time he gives an interview, you're kind of captivated.

• 1:38:21Speaker 02

  Yeah, like, but it's captivated, like. How many car pile up, right? Like?

• 1:38:26Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it's just, it's just different.

• 1:38:28Speaker 02

  It is, it is.

• 1:38:29Bill Simmons?

  He'll figure it out.

• 1:38:29Speaker 02

  But I knew that's why you couldn't go all in on him.

• 1:38:32Bill Simmons?

  Well, his teammates love him. I love that he's come through in, especially the Penn State game, but he's taken the stuff I've seen. He's taken some big hits. He just gets up. Or if it takes him a couple of plays to get up, he's back.

• 1:38:47Bill Simmons?

  And I don't know, and the team wins. So if I'm, um, there's only going to probably be one team in the top six that desperately needs a QB in the NFL.

• 1:38:59Bill Simmons?

  Maybe he's the guy. I didn't look at the list for, who, who's the team that needs a QB? I'm blanking.

• 1:39:04Speaker 02

  Well, the Raiders needed.

• 1:39:05Bill Simmons?

  The Raiders.

• 1:39:06Speaker 02

  The Saints now, they're, they're out. The Giants won't. I haven't looked at the list this week. Tennessee won't.

• 1:39:13Bill Simmons?

  Cleveland.

• 1:39:14Speaker 02

  Yeah, but here's the thing though. You've got three teams, Bill, with two picks in the first round that were banking on this quarterback class.

• 1:39:22Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:39:22Speaker 02

  Right? You got Cleveland, the Jets and the Rams. The Rams are now like, ah, it doesn't matter his age. We get at least one more year out of him. So I bet you the Rams try to move, move a piece to get another first rounder in 2027 would be my guess if they can. The Jets have multiple in 27 as well. So it's kind of the, the Browns that are sitting there that you're most nervous about them. But I think the Jets, if they, I mean, there could be a war, I'm saying for that first overall pick to go up and get Mendoza. And I think, you know, whoever winds up with that first round pick is going to wind up, or that number one overall pick is going to wind up getting a haul for it.

• 1:40:00Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. So, I mean, Arizona, I guess, could talk themselves into, we desperately need one, but they could also talk themselves another year of Kyler. The only one that's like, it's bleak, you know, really bleak, I would say is Jets and, and Vegas.

• 1:40:16Speaker 02

  And the Browns.

• 1:40:19Bill Simmons?

  But even the Browns, could they, like, what if Shador looks better the next three? Like, they could talk themselves into some sort of Shador, we're paying Watson anyway, there's a better draft class coming.

• 1:40:27Speaker 02

  It would be ownership talking themselves into it. And, and getting rid of the GM and the head coach and bringing in a, a group that, a head coach that believes in Shador. That's what it would take, is, from my understanding.

• 1:40:41Bill Simmons?

  Or a head coach that believes in, a year from now, let's go all in on this next draft, it's gonna be loaded with people. Vegas needs, I mean, the Vegas thing's unbelievable. The Carol, Carol's gonna get, I think he's gonna get pushed out after.

• 1:40:54Speaker 02

  Yeah, he's dead man walking, right now.

• 1:40:56Bill Simmons?

  But they went all in on Geno Smith, who, you know, he's not gonna be the QB next year.

• 1:41:00Speaker 02

  How great does Schneider look, in Seattle?

• 1:41:03Bill Simmons?

  Well, you have that, you also have, you're in a division with Denver Chargers and, and the, the rebuilding for your Kansas City Chiefs. So Vegas could be.

• 1:41:13Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:41:13Bill Simmons?

  You know, this could be the rest of the decade where they're just in fourth place. So they gotta figure it out. Can we talk about, um, quickly, the college football playoffs?

• 1:41:22Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 1:41:23Bill Simmons?

  Oklahoma, Alabama is the closest line. That's one and a half, Alabama favored. Texas A&M, Miami, and then two higher lines with Ole Miss and Oregon. Is there, what, out of those four, what's the game you're fired up for?

• 1:41:35Speaker 02

  Blue Bloods Friday night, Alabama, Oklahoma. Oklahoma's offense doesn't, it just, it's not inspiring. John Matier, before the thumb injury, was tracking to be, I'm not saying he's gonna be a first-rounder, but like a day-two prospect, but he just, he brought this grit and playmaking ability and like the, the mid, the Matier moments and, you know, the good and bad. Um, he hasn't been the same. The offensive line can't protect. They don't have any running game. So, but I think they can beat Alabama. Something, something's up in Alabama. Ty Simpson was sensational. Best quarterback in the country, I thought, through like six, seven games. Um, Ryan Williams, the wide receiver's a star. When he, coming

• 1:42:17Speaker 02

  in, it was Jeremiah Smith and Ryan Williams. Is like the two, and, and we're talking about already, top 10 picks after last year. And Ryan Williams, all of a sudden, can't catch the ball consistently, is disappearing, one catch for, um, 22 yards or something like that in the final two regular season games. They had to manufacture a couple of throws to them in the, in the SCC championship game. This is a star. This doesn't happen to Jeremiah Smith, you know? Now there's DeBoer and conversation about Michigan. I think they could get clipped and I love Ty Simpson and I actually picked Alabama in the preseason to win the national championship. I'm taking Oklahoma on Friday night.

• 1:42:56Bill Simmons?

  Interesting.

• 1:42:56Speaker 02

  Norman, I also think Miami. I don't trust Marcel Reed. What's that number? What's the spread?

• 1:43:06Bill Simmons?

  Three and a half for Miami. Miami's getting three and a half.

• 1:43:09Speaker 02

  FanDuel is all over it. They always are. Um, I think that game's going to be close. I, I actually think Carson Beck with his experience is, um, I did this thing, right? This on the, the other day. Last year's quarter, the biggest difference in the playoffs this year and last year? Quarterbacks. Last year, like the best quarterback in the entire college football playoff was Dylan Gabriel. I get the list right here. It's why I'm looking at Quinn Ewers, Nico Iamaliava just as a pup still. Cade Clubnick, Drew Aller, Will Howard, Kevin Jennings, Riley Leonard, Carson Beck, who, who wasn't even going to be in the playoff. It was going to be Gunner Stockton and we knew barely anything about Sam Levitt as a putt and, uh, pup and Maddox Madsen.

• 1:43:49Bill Simmons?

  Jesus.

• 1:43:50Speaker 02

  I know. This year it's Mendoza, Moore, right? At the, at the top, Julian Sayen, Ty Simpson, Carson Beck reinvented, um, uh, Matier, who I talked about, Marcel Reed, uh, Baron Morton, who's done a great job at Texas Tech, kind of flies under the radar. Did I say Julian Sayen as well? Ohio State? Yeah. And, uh, Trinidad.

• 1:44:15Bill Simmons?

  Twice.

• 1:44:16Speaker 02

  Yeah. So that, that's the biggest difference this year.

• 1:44:21Bill Simmons?

  What about my guy, Bob Chesney headed to UCLA, getting 21 and a half against Oregon? For James Madison, the 12 seed. There's no sports movie potential here, is there?

• 1:44:32Speaker 02

  Not a movie. I like the defense is good.

• 1:44:36Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:44:37Speaker 02

  Run game is really good.

• 1:44:39Bill Simmons?

  Seems like a pretty big step up.

• 1:44:41Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:44:41Bill Simmons?

  From the, from the conference. I'm not counting on my guy.

• 1:44:44Speaker 02

  I know he's your guy. A lot of rumors and reports about you and that, that situation.

• 1:44:49Bill Simmons?

  About helped. Ohio State is a two to one favorite. Indiana, this on FanDuel. Indiana's plus 320, Georgia's six to one, Oregon and Texas Tech are plus eight 50. So if you had to pick a team, who would you pick to win this whole thing?

• 1:45:07Speaker 02

  With the, with the odds in, in mind, I would say, I would say Georgia.

• 1:45:15Bill Simmons?

  Georgia's six to one.

• 1:45:17Speaker 02

  Yeah. I, I think you get the better money. And I think honestly, it's a, I don't want to say coin flip, but I, I could see Georgia winning it just as easily as I could Ohio State. I could see Ohio State stumbling out of the gate. I could, you know what? You want to take a long shot? Check out in your FanDuel app.

• 1:45:34Bill Simmons?

  I got it.

• 1:45:35Speaker 02

  It's to make the, the semifinals. Yeah. The semifinals.

• 1:45:42Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 1:45:42Speaker 02

  It was high. It was like plus, I forget it was 700 or something like that. Um, for Miami.

• 1:45:49Bill Simmons?

  Just to advance?

• 1:45:51Speaker 02

  To get to the final four. Yeah.

• 1:45:53Bill Simmons?

  To get to the final four.

• 1:45:56Speaker 02

  It would be beating A and M and A and M and then, and then knocking off Ohio State and, and then Carson Beck goes to play Georgia. Miami's talented enough.

• 1:46:04Bill Simmons?

  Plus 650 to make the college football playoff semifinals.

• 1:46:08Speaker 02

  It dropped after I gave it the other day.

• 1:46:10Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that's what you do.

• 1:46:11Speaker 02

  I'm joking.

• 1:46:13Bill Simmons?

  It was 700.

• 1:46:15Speaker 02

  It was 700, but I'm just.

• 1:46:16Bill Simmons?

  You dropped the odds and you got in Moore's head.

• 1:46:18Speaker 02

  If you got a couple, a couple, a couple bucks lying around, a little scratch, throw it at that.

• 1:46:23Bill Simmons?

  What's your ideal number for the college playoffs for teams? Are we, is it 12? Is it 16? Is it eight? What would be, what would you do the happiest?

• 1:46:31Speaker 02

  I could live with 12, but the bowl, like the bowls are predictably becoming a farce now.

• 1:46:38Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:46:39Speaker 02

  So I'm all for expanding. Let's just, let's go all, I am, I think 16. Here's my biggest complaint. First of all, we have all these brilliant people and all this money and all the investments in college football, right? All the TV back. How do we, why does it take an epic failure every year for, for change to be effective? Last year, we got these, these four seeds of conference champions and we're like, what are we doing? This year we get that fixed and so it's the top four ranked teams as it always should have been.

• 1:47:10Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:47:10Speaker 02

  How did we not read the fine print? Like literally, did we just get too caught up in all like, how do we not think to ourselves, you know what? The ACC or the Big 12, it won't ever be the Big 10 or the SEC. The ACC or the Big 12 could have a down year. And there's no team that represents one of those schools. And now we've got another conference champion and it could be another group of five.

• 1:47:32Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:47:33Speaker 02

  How did we not get ahead of that?

• 1:47:35Bill Simmons?

  Well, it sounds like 16 is the right number.

• 1:47:37Speaker 02

  16 is the right number.

• 1:47:39Bill Simmons?

  It's eight or 16. 12 seems like we can't decide either way.

• 1:47:43Speaker 02

  And if it's at 12, the, the group of five should not just automatically get it. They should be ranked in the, they have to be ranked in the top. They have to have a special Boise State, Cinderella upsetting Oklahoma type of year to get a team in. Because right now we're looking at like Texas with the way Arch was playing, they knocked off the number three team in the country at the end of the year. How's Texas out? And I love Chesney, but JM use it. How is, how is Tulane in? And Vanderbilt or BYU, one of these other programs isn't in. When they lost, now we get a rematch of Ole Miss, 45, Tulane 10 from earlier in the season. Like no one wants to see that game.

• 1:48:27Bill Simmons?

  So maybe it's D year 12 and then you have four, wait, how are these guys not in spots?

• 1:48:33Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:48:34Bill Simmons?

  And then, then you just get, and you just decide at the end of the, all right, these four, we can't. If we're gonna do this correctly, Texas has to be in. So there's one and you just go through.

• 1:48:43Speaker 02

  Yeah, in the current system, it's essentially five automatic bids and then seven at large. So you would expand that seven at large, but you would also, I still think the group of five teams should be in the top 16, whatever that number is. They should be ranked in the top that spot in order to earn being in.

• 1:49:00Bill Simmons?

  Well, you know what they'll end up doing? They'll go to 14 and emulate the NFL. That'll be the next move. And it's just the two ones, the one and the two seeds will be the ones that don't have to play in the first round. Everybody else has to play. And then eventually we end up at 16. And then eventually we end up at 24.

• 1:49:19Speaker 02

  I've only heard 16, though. I could see it getting to 24.

• 1:49:26Bill Simmons?

  I mean, at that point, what are we doing?

• 1:49:27Speaker 02

  Yeah. I think 16 will be there to stay for a while.

• 1:49:33Bill Simmons?

  All right.

• 1:49:34Speaker 02

  Yeah, we'll see.

• 1:49:35Bill Simmons?

  Good to see you, McShay. I enjoy your newsletter. I enjoy your podcast. I enjoy the fact that you trudged to Gillette Stadium to watch the Patriots. Rubber match is coming. I'm not worried. Campbell's back. Williams will be back both in January. You'll see, we're gonna see the Bills again. I think we're okay.

• 1:49:53Speaker 02

  I think the Williams thing is just, just as important, honestly. That run defensive times, I've just, I'm stunned. So I'd love to see.

• 1:50:00Bill Simmons?

  I think they're 31st in rush EPA since he went out. I think that was the stat I saw.

• 1:50:05Speaker 02

  And you could just see it on the field. It was, yeah. But that's, that's, that's what we all want. Like just the league in general wants to see that. The, the May Allen rivalry, you know?

• 1:50:16Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. All right. Good to see you. Happy holidays.

• 1:50:18Speaker 02

  All right, brother. I'll talk to you. You too.

• 1:50:21Bill Simmons?

  All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Zach and McShay. Thanks to Gahal and Eduardo as well. Don't forget, rewatchable is high fidelity already up. Sure Thing coming tomorrow night. The Sure Thing by Rob Reiner. And then Music Box Thursday, Counting Crows. Have you seen me lately? And then I'll have one more podcast on this feed. Enjoy the rest of the day.

• 1:50:56Bill Simmons?

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