The Future of War and The Scientific Breakthrough That Changes Everything! | The Tom Bilyeu Show

Tom Bilyeu and Producer Drew explore the transformative potential of AI and its implications for the future of science, health, and societal infrastructure. The conversation begins with an exploration of the exciting possibility that AI might cure all diseases in the next decade, introducing a new era of health technology. They delve into the details of a breakthrough Google AI model and its potential impact on scientific progress, including its capability to transform the medical field, specifically in areas like cancer treatment. Throughout the discussion, Tom and Drew examine the complexities of human biology, the concept of "n of 1," and how AI can redefine our understanding of individual health needs. They touch on the potential contributions of quantum computing and biological feats such as Tardigrades' resistance to radiation. This segment sets the stage for an in-depth examination of how AI and technological advancements are reshaping our world. SHOWNOTES 00:00 AI: Addressing Humanity's Toughest Challenges 03:39 "AI Insights and N of 1" 07:36 Quantum Computing's Future in Biology 10:39 Cautious Approach to DNA Alteration 14:21 "Starship Explosions: Progress Through Failure" 17:37 Advancements in Defense Manufacturing 22:14 Economic Diplomacy and Sanctions 25:18 Economic Strategies Against Russia 29:13 Europe's Commitment to Ukraine Defense 31:27 Debate Essential for Europe's Security 35:34 Bitcoin's Growing Credibility Signal 36:36 Bitcoin's Future and Government Spending 42:26 Rise of Entrepreneurial AI Creators 43:48 Streaming's Shift: Rise of Community Content CHECK OUT OUR SPONSORS Range Rover: Range Rover: Explore the Range Rover Sport at https://rangerover.com/us/sport Audible: Sign up for a free 30 day trial at https://audible.com/IMPACTTHEORY https://audible.com/IMPACTTHEORY1 Vital Proteins: Get 20% off by going to https://www.vitalproteins.com https://www.vitalproteins.com/ and entering promo code IMPACT at check out Thive Market: ​​Go to https:thrivemarket.com/impact http://thrivemarket.com/impact for 30% off your first order, plus a FREE $60 gift! ITU: Ready to breakthrough your biggest business bottleneck? Apply to work with me 1:1 - https://impacttheory.co/SCALE Kettle & Fire: Get 20% off your first order at https://kettleandfire.com/impact with code IMPACT Netsuite: Download the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning at https://NetSuite.com/THEORY https://netsuite.com/THEORY Found: Try Found for FREE at https://found.com/impact ********************************************************************** Do you need my help? STARTING a business: Join me inside ZERO TO FOUNDER here https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=6762613-Scaling%20YT%20%26%20PC%20Ads&utm_source=IT_PC&utm_content=ztf_it_pc_ad SCALING a business: Click here to see if you qualify https://tombilyeu.com/scale?utm_campaign=6762613-Scaling%20YT%20%26%20PC%20Ads&utm_source=mindset_PC&utm_content=bdceo_mindset_pc_ad Get my battle-tested strategies and insights delivered weekly to your inbox:sign up here. https://tombilyeu.com/ ********************************************************************** If you're serious about leveling up your life, I urge you to check out my new podcast,Tom Bilyeu’s Mindset Playbook https://open.spotify.com/show/47VE90Cittmo6TGGFqg2xf —a goldmine of my most impactful episodes on mindset, business, and health. Trust me, your future self will thank you. ********************************************************************** Join me live on myTwitch stream https://impacttheory.co/4fitmnJ. I'm live daily from 6:30 to 8:30 am PT atwww.twitch.tv/tombilyeu https://impacttheory.co/4fitmnJ ********************************************************************** LISTEN TO IMPACT THEORY AD FREE + BONUS EPISODES on APPLE PODCASTS:apple.co/impacttheory http://apple.co/impacttheory ********************************************************************** FOLLOW TOM: Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok:https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter:https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices https://megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Tom Bilyeu?

  Let's talk about the moment your side hustle becomes a real business. Now, I see way too many founders stay stuck running their business like it's a hobby. And then they wonder why nothing ever feels real. It doesn't feel real because it's not. I've helped thousands of entrepreneurs build real businesses through Impact Theory University. And the first step in the path to building a legit business is registering it. And Taylor Brands will help you do just that in a few clicks. An LLC, a limited liability company, is an official business structure. It's inexpensive to form and very simple to maintain. It's how you open a business bank account. It's how customers know they're dealing with a real company. And Taylor Brands doesn't stop at the filing.

• 0:45Tom Bilyeu?

  Their dashboard tracks what comes next based on what your business actually needs. So EIN number, registered agent, licenses and permits, bookkeeping, business banking. I tell every founder the same thing. Just make it official. Click the link in the show notes to check out Taylor Brands and get started on your business today. This is a paid advertisement. AI to cure all diseases in the next 10 years? One expert would have you believe it. A breakthrough in biology reveals a novel protein that could make a long space travel possible. But Elon's latest starship launch ended in a fiery rain of debris. Trump threatens Russia with sanctions over Ukraine.

• 1:26Tom Bilyeu?

  But the EU comes together, promising 800 billion to 1 trillion USD in aid to Ukraine, marking Europe as a potential global superpower on the rise. Bitcoin's strategic reserve is now real. A rogues' gallery of guests worked the podcast circuit this week with SBF on Tucker, Ian Carroll on Rogan, and Tate on PBD. People freaked out, but still tuned in. And as Hollywood faces an AI apocalypse, one writer tries to wake the industry up. The world is still driving in the fast lane, Drew. Tell me about it. What do you see?

• 2:02Speaker 01

  I'm just glad we're gonna be able to travel in space now cuz this anti-radiation treatment is gonna be big. But big breakthrough in AI news. And I like that we're taking the scientific approach to it cuz we're so used to AI breakthrough, new robot, AI breakthrough, new like LLM. But no, it's like this is what AI is really going to be used for. So, starting with it, Google just released Google Scientist. It's still in like early beta, it's not fully available to the public yet. But we had a tweet from Dr. Unat Tamas.

• 2:30Tom Bilyeu?

  Said just like that.

• 2:32Speaker 01

  The mind-blowing AI model that led me to the claim below was a demo of Google AI cosigns. It's still a work in progress and I hope to test in a few weeks, but its potential is already crystal clear and I believe it to be a truly game changer for scientific progress. And what he claimed two days ago was, "After what I've seen today related to an AI model that I can't talk about it yet, I can confidently claim that the scientific process will never be the same again. I am now 99% certain that all diseases, including cancer, will be cured within a decade. Exponential advance in AI is real."

• 3:04Tom Bilyeu?

  This to me is extremely thrilling. To your point, this is a lot like mindset. You develop a mindset so that you can point it at the most difficult problems in your life. You develop AI so that you can point it at the most difficult problems that we are trying to solve in humanity. So, so much has been made of, you know, do they end up replacing all the humans? Do they become this threat that we have to worry about? And the reality is the reason that it's worth pursuing despite that there is some level of risk that those things do happen is that it really is going to allow us to have the kind of innovations that we would otherwise never be able to see. Human biology is so wildly complicated. Like if you've ever seen the Krebs cycle broken down

• 3:48Tom Bilyeu?

  and that's just what happens in one cell to generate energy, it is insane. It is insanely complicated. And when you see the full thing mapped out, you really begin to understand why biology has stymied us for so long and why it's so hard just to understand like basic facts about what you eat and what the impact is of what you eat. AI, however, can look at a set of data and see things that we don't see. Its ability to pattern recognition over...

• 4:17Tom Bilyeu?

  Millions, billions, trillions of parameters is absolutely insane. Like, there's one thing, we never talked about this because just not enough information is out yet. But a really fascinating thing is AI can look at a human eye completely isolated, like just the iris of the eye. It can tell you if they're male or female, but we don't know how. So we don't know what it's picking up on, but forever has been this thing hiding in plain sight that reveals the gender of something. And we just didn't know, but AI was like, oh, by the way, I can tell you that that's male or female. These are the kinds of things and far deeper, far more profoundly important. The kinds of things that AI will be able to pattern recognize its way to solutions.

• 4:58Tom Bilyeu?

  So first of all, there's a concept in biology that people should familiarize themselves with, which is N of one. So when you talk about something being an N of one, you're saying that there's only one of the things like this. So when you're talking about diet, everything is going to be N of one. So it's actually more important for you to test on your own body, how you respond to. Like if I eat a bowl of blackberries, I get a very noticeable spike in my glucose. But there's another person here, when they eat a bowl of blackberries, it almost doesn't register. And I'm like, how is that possible? So N of one, it has to do with your genetic ability to deal with or not deal with, as may be the case. With the glucose in that, and so it's not working its way into the bloodstream.

• 5:43Tom Bilyeu?

  It could be in their case, being rapidly stored as fat.

• 5:47Tom Bilyeu?

  Or their insulin just may be really efficient at getting it out of the bloodstream. So even before it can accumulate, it's just being pushed into the cells. So, and not to mention microbiome and how much of the glucose is actually able to pull out of the blackberry in this example. So who knows what's actually going on, but that's N of one. This is why you can't just go, well, so and so fitness influencer tells me to do this. And therefore it's going to work like I have a massive inflammatory response to sugar. So people that are like, well, if it fits your macros, bro, I can stay lean as hell. But if I eat even like a bunch of strawberries, I can feel it in my hands. Strawberries, man, I'm talking like three or four strawberries. I will notice the next day in how my hand feels. So.

• 6:30Tom Bilyeu?

  N of one, N of one, N of one, and do not listen to people that tell you that that isn't true. That is for sure true. And AI is going to be able to do things in cancer like saying, "Hey, with your genetic makeup, with the very specific makeup of your cancer and the way that your body is responding to certain treatments, this is exactly what you should do."

• 6:49Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 6:50Tom Bilyeu?

  And I remember Steve Jobs, when he passed away, he said, "I'm either gonna be one of the last people to die of cancer, or one of the first people to survive from these," he didn't call it N of one, "but from these N of one tailored treatments that are very specific to me, my type of cancer, the way that my body's responding." And unfortunately, that was many years ago, and we have not seen the rate of progress that we would want to see. But what our man is replying to is that now with AI, that was the missing piece, to be able to read just so much more information about all the very complex ways that things respond, broken down to the N of one individual.

• 7:29Speaker 01

  Yeah, and I think the rise of quantum computing is gonna help that as well, cuz it's the maze illustration is what really kinda locked it in for me, where a classic computing, human thought has been, "Let me go through this maze, oop, I hit a wall, let me go back, go through over here, hit a wall." Whereas with quantum computing, there's six different legs going out and trying every possibility all at once.

• 7:47Tom Bilyeu?

  Or 10 million. Yeah, it's crazy.

• 7:49Speaker 01

  Or the trillion, a quadrillion qubits, like, the number is just endless scaling. So I think going through the iteration process, the scientific method is gonna be done instantaneously versus now it takes six weeks to get to a trial and come back and try it again, so.

• 8:02Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, call back to our most recent episode. Drew isn't just throwing crazy numbers around. There was a recent breakthrough out of China that showed that when this thing is carried out into a computer, and it's very important to point out with quantum computing, we are not there yet, but they're having these breakthroughs, and their breakthrough showed that when stabilized and actually able to put into a computer, it would be a quadrillion times faster

• 8:29Speaker 01

  Crazy.

• 8:29Tom Bilyeu?

  than the current supercomputers. Also following on what you're saying, the method by which computers do the run the maze is a great way to think about it. It's very different. You wouldn't Use quantum computing for the same things that you would use a traditional computer for. It's very important to understand, but whenever there is like branching possibilities and biology being a great example of something where it's like, okay, there are so many complex paths that these things are going to go down to be able to run a lot of different scenarios. Okay. What if this, what if that, what if this, uh, you start getting into things like protein folding where now you can guess at all the different ways that a protein can fold. And then all the different, cause people talk about these as being lock and key.

• 9:11Tom Bilyeu?

  All the different lock formations and all the different key formations that it could go into, and you can run all of that simultaneously. And that's the big promise of where we go with quantum computing. Again, most people are saying this is probably still 10 years out, um, but you need the breakthroughs that we're starting to see are actually happening.

• 9:30Speaker 01

  Yeah. And then there's actually some biological breakthroughs happening in the real world. So couple those up and we're on the, onto the running, off to the running. Uh, a protein from tear grades can now protect human cells from radiation. So tear grades is like a slug type formation. The creature we just threw it up on the screen. So.

• 9:45Tom Bilyeu?

  How much do you know about these things?

• 9:47Speaker 01

  Zero percent.

• 9:47Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay. So the thing that got people excited about these from a radiation perspective is you can, they can survive being on the hull of a ship. Go out into space, do whatever it's going to, the vacuum of space and come back and they're still fine. And so people were like, what? So that I think, I don't have the proof of that, but given that that was already on my radar, I have a feeling they specifically sought this out. Because of the fact that it's proven that it can exist with no protection from radiation whatsoever. Uh, and still live, not to mention that obscenely low temperatures.

• 10:23Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 10:23Tom Bilyeu?

  Pretty fascinating.

• 10:24Speaker 01

  They survive by expressing a unique protein damage suppressor, D sub, that binds to the DNA and it physically shields it from radiation induced breaks. So now they want to pair that D sub to human cells using mRNA encapsulated in nanoparticles.

• 10:39Tom Bilyeu?

  People with mRNA. Yeah, that is the bad news.

• 10:41Speaker 01

  It's a buzz, yeah, it's a buzzword, but biologically it's sound. So with that being said, it would then kind of shield us from cancer treatment radiation. It can, like you said, space travel is also on the timeline. So there's a lot of other things. Once we can have our cells not be impacted by radiation. That we can do different power sources, different things that humans can then be placed in and that can.

• 11:02Tom Bilyeu?

  Will you alter your DNA? Like when that comes online, would you be like, yeah, tardigrade me up?

• 11:08Speaker 01

  Yeah, if I need, if I have a need for, yeah, I don't know.

• 11:12Tom Bilyeu?

  If I'm about to get on that spaceship and head to Mars, yes, otherwise, probably not.

• 11:15Speaker 01

  My mom is a nurse and she's, she's the most anti-medicine person I ever know, but, but she works in the health field. She always says like, there's no easy surgery, there's no simple surgery, there's no non-invasive, like every time you're getting cut open, you're exposing yourself. So save it for when you really, really need it. So ever since then, that was me. I was like, if I'm about to die and this is going to save me, I'm not going to be like, no, pray for me. But at the same time, I'm not going to just volunteer like, oh, there's mechanical arms. Let me go arm wrestle real good now. Like, it's just not.

• 11:43Tom Bilyeu?

  Yes, interesting. So I was, um, I went to Michael Malas, shout out to Michael for having me on his show recently. I don't know when it airs, but, um, it was a lot of fun. And he took me out to dinner with him and some of his friends and a bunch of them have gone to a service to have their DNA altered, which I'm almost certain Michael has talked openly about. If he hasn't, I'll be sure to edit this out. Uh, but I was like, okay. I don't know if I will do it, but I won't be an early adopter. So I'm going to need to see a lot of people go through these systems to see if there are any unintended consequences. Uh, because woo buddy, altering my DNA certainly makes me very slow to activate that one.

• 12:26Tom Bilyeu?

  Because there is no free lunch, man. There's no free lunch. So we'll have to see how this stuff plays out, but it is very exciting. Uh, this is a technology that I really want to see mature between CRISPR, being able to actually go in and edit the, um, words essentially in your DNA so that you can make specific changes. And again, AI being able to handle the complexity of what are all the knock on effects that that thing could, um, have by making that edit. Uh, and then things like mRNA technology, being able to go and inject itself into a cell. It is.

• 13:01Tom Bilyeu?

  Thrilling. I mean, this is really exciting, but there's gonna need to be some safety testing. I think we learned our lesson from COVID. You don't want to do these things without the safety testing, but this, this kind of thing gets me absolutely thrilled. And so I would be very sad to see people throw that baby out with the bathwater. Think of it as a technology. We didn't necessarily use it in the right way during COVID, maybe just a little too fast, not looking at the safety implications. But as a technology, the ability to actually go in and edit ourselves is, is going to be incredible. Now, there's a lot of ethical implications, uh, but it's something that has me peak excitement.

• 13:38Speaker 01

  Yeah, we shall see. Um, SpaceX did a launch yesterday and unfortunately didn't go as Elon Musk planned. This was a video of debris circling over the Bahamas. And Kyle Kalinsky had a spicy take, the complete fraud Elon Musk had another massive failure. And he demands control of air traffic control for the entire country. This idiot should be in prison. He should return the 38 billion he stole from US taxpayers. I'm just gonna put an asterisk. This tweet is giving Trump vibes and I just wanted to say that's hilarious to me.

• 14:07Tom Bilyeu?

  That's interesting. So remember, uh, you go far enough in either direction and you just wrap back around on each other.

• 14:12Speaker 01

  To the same people.

• 14:13Tom Bilyeu?

  Hey, uh, so, um, here's why I hate everything about that tweet. So the reality is that you have a guy that has successfully surpassed the US government in its ability to send things into space. 95% of all the tonnage of things launched into space, and I don't mean by America, I mean globally. 95% of the tonnage is done by one company, SpaceX. So they have actually figured out how to safely do things in space. We right now have astronauts stuck at the International Space Station because Boeing made a, um, space shuttle that

• 14:58Tom Bilyeu?

  everyone just agreed it's not safe enough. We, we cannot send that back up there to get them. And so Elon is going to be the one that goes and gets them. And so in the face of all that success, like even when you hate somebody and we're gonna, um, I won't parallel that, even if you hate somebody, we'll leave it at that.

• 15:15Tom Bilyeu?

  That doesn't mean that they aren't good at something. It doesn't mean that they don't have great ideas. It doesn't mean that we can't all benefit from that. So I'd like to quote Bruce Lee. You take what works, you discard the rest. So if you hate Elon's politics, fine. But trying to make out like the Starship exploding is somehow bad or catastrophic. The reality is this is the physics of progress at work. So you build Starship to the best of your abilities because it's an advancement over the things that he can do reliably. And you try and you see where you fail so that you can get smarter, so that you can build it a little bit better. So when they launched this Starship, they knew that there was some relatively high

• 15:56Tom Bilyeu?

  percentage chance that it would experience a rapid unplanned disassembly. I think is how they refer to it. And so this is a part of that. And so when I see somebody rail against this, these are the people that make kids terrified to fail. Quick break, but don't go anywhere. There's more to come after this short break from our sponsors. Luxury brands are not charging you more for better cashmere. You're paying for the storefront, the ad budget, the name on the tag, but Quince cuts all of that out. They work directly with ethical factories. They skip the middlemen and sell 100% Mongolian cashmere, starting at just 60 bucks. 50 to 80% less than similar brands. Now, I gave one of these as a gift last year.

• 16:40Tom Bilyeu?

  It was a big hit and gifting is really the test of a brand. You might tolerate a lot of stuff in your own closet that you would never give to somebody else. I've got their joggers and a couple of their tees as well. And I can tell you their whole line is high quality. Give the gift of quality this holiday season. Download the Quince app for app exclusive offers or go to quince.com. Get free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. It's now also available in Canada and the UK. And when Quince asks where you heard about them, make sure you tell them that it was on Impact Theory. That's the best way to support the show. I'll call you back. That's the most expensive sentence in business. You mean it when you say it, but by the time you remember, they've already

• 17:24Tom Bilyeu?

  Found somebody else. That's why today's episode is brought to you by Quo, spelled Q U O. The business phone that's built so you never miss a call or a customer. Quo writes up your calls for you and one click turns any of them into a task with a name and a due date. The follow up actually happens instead of living in your head. When you can't pick up at all, Quo's agent does. It answers questions, gets the details and texts them a link to book an appointment. By morning, you've got the summary and you can jump right in. It's also an official connector in Claude and Chat G P T. Ask who called while you were out and it's handled. Quo is the number one rated business phone on G two. It's trusted by over ninety thousand businesses.

• 18:08Tom Bilyeu?

  When money is on the line, always say hello with Quo. Try Quo for free plus get twenty percent off your first six months at quo.com slash impact. That's Q U O dot com slash impact. All right, we're back. Let's get into it. Failure is the most information rich data stream on planet earth. The way that you get better at something is by doing it, by engaging with it and realize, oh, that way didn't work, but it didn't work for this exact reason. I need to make an edit and then try again. And so when we clown on somebody because we don't like their politics or whatever, and say, oh, this is just a moron. He doesn't know what he's doing.

• 18:52Tom Bilyeu?

  It's like, what are you talking about? Nobody in human history, as far as I know, even if you aggregate everything that came before, like the amount that he's sending up now, just it certainly is at a pace that dwarfs everything else. He may have even, this is admittedly a guess, but he may have even already outstripped everything that we've put up previously. I mean, his satellites are visible from earth, man. Like you can watch them go by. People report them as alien craft all the time. That's how many of these things, these massive clusters Starlink has put up using SpaceX. It is, which by the way, are both his companies.

• 19:34Tom Bilyeu?

  So it's just absolutely insane and is a non-functional way of viewing the world. It gets clicks. And so if you wanna like clap for Kyle as somebody who's very good at generating outrage and getting people to comment on his stuff. Hey, hey, well played, my man. Uh, but if you're trying to figure out how to think through the world in a way that has high predictive validity, he's not your man.

• 19:57Speaker 01

  Definitely not your man. Uh, you know what else? That's not my dog. Um.

• 20:01Tom Bilyeu?

  This is my dog. This is crazy.

• 20:02Speaker 01

  Technology, I like, we seen this already. Black Mirror already released this. We already know how this ends. I just like, we keep setting ourselves up with these robots and I keep telling y'all like, we gonna find out. But yes, robot dogs with missiles is now a thing. We were already worried about the robot dogs with machine guns. Now these, he got a four missile pack.

• 20:20Tom Bilyeu?

  Surface to air, man.

• 20:22Speaker 01

  That looks like a, uh, one of like war machines, like wrist gauntlet type. Like, it's crazy.

• 20:28Tom Bilyeu?

  Dude, this is the future of warfare. Extremely nimble, AI-enabled, weapons, armed, hot and ready. This, for many people, this is the nightmare. And I think it sounds like you may include yourself in that.

• 20:43Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 20:43Tom Bilyeu?

  For me, this is exactly what you need to do. You are in a dangerous world where people are going to be doing this on the other side. And if you are not able to defend yourself from this, you're in trouble. The days of gigantic stationary weaponry is over. You, this is such a huge advancement. And I was listening to, um, Karp, I forget his first name. But he said that it is very easy to make a moral argument for there are times where you have to kill the other side. And that is just true, man. And you certainly at an absolute minimum have to have the ability

• 21:22Tom Bilyeu?

  to defend yourself against somebody that's trying to kill you. And so this kind of thing for me, even though I share with you the tragedy of the human condition, which is that we fight and kill each other. But knowing that I live in that world, I am going to protect myself. And so seeing the advancements that we're making, uh, is really incredible. Because America after World War Two got to tell itself a really incredible story about our manufacturing might and how there's the famous line from the Japanese.

• 21:56Tom Bilyeu?

  General Admiral, I forget exactly what his rank was, but uh he said, I fear that we have awoken a sleeping giant. It by bombing Pearl Harbor and he was right and we just out manufactured everybody. And we're not that America anymore. And so when I see somebody like Palmer Lucky, and I think this is actually Chinese, by the way, what we're looking at here. So this is technically what you have to defend against. But uh, when I see somebody like Palmer Lucky who gets it like this is where we are. I want everybody to wake up to the truth of the world they live in. The truth of where, excuse me, where weapons are going and make sure that we are prepared to handle.

• 22:34Speaker 01

  I'm increasingly hoping for the alien invasion, just because I feel like America, like we need to partner with our humans and figure out shared camaraderie again and love each other again.

• 22:43Tom Bilyeu?

  It's never gonna happen. What do you mean again?

• 22:46Tom Bilyeu?

  Define again.

• 22:47Speaker 01

  Uh, after we all killed the Nazis and everybody agreed that there was one good guy and one bad guy and everybody shook hands.

• 22:52Tom Bilyeu?

  That's not true. The bad guy thought he was a good guy. This is why the Berlin Wall stayed up for as long as it did. I mean, it's you want a flashback and P S. This is all happening. Mao's China rises up not long after World War Two and fucking starves. His people to death, dude, forty to forty-five million people die just in the famine. Manmade, by the way. Uh, so yeah, we people often think because the West. Had protracted peace and only a cold war, which was bad enough, but certainly better than a hot war. But Stalin was killing people as fast as he could. Mao was killing people faster than anyone would ever think possible.

• 23:38Tom Bilyeu?

  So America had it great. Europe got rebuilt, had it great. Uh, Japan got rebuilt, had it great. But yo, there was more death in the 20th century, post-World War Two. Then like, I think. In a pure numbers, not as a percentage, but as a pure numbers perspective, I think than any other time in history. That's why when people look at the 20th century and they're like, oh my God, this was amazing. It's like, bro, this is why people like me are freaking out when they hear people embracing socialism, communism. Read about Mao. It is crazy town. It's crazy. It does not go anywhere good. So the idea of do I wish that humans ran a different algorithm in their brain?

• 24:22Tom Bilyeu?

  And that they felt a deep and profound sense of unity? Yes, that would be amazing, but we don't run that algorithm. I mean, that's, that is an algorithm, but always running next to the us algorithm is other algorithm. And so, yeah, the whole, the reason that an alien invasion works is you focus all my desire to kill and conquest on an alien. But we're still doing the same thing to them.

• 24:46Speaker 01

  Oh yeah, I don't know those aliens.

• 24:49Tom Bilyeu?

  Welcome to what us versus them looks like, boys and girls.

• 24:52Speaker 01

  And, uh, well, Donald Trump is doing his, his best to keep the peace. That was facetious.

• 24:59Tom Bilyeu?

  That was not a sentence I expected.

• 25:01Speaker 01

  Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely pounding Ukraine on the battlefield right now. I am strongly considering large scale banking sanctions, sanctions and tariffs on Russia until a ceasefire and final settlement agreement on peace is reached. To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now before it's too late. Thank you.

• 25:20Tom Bilyeu?

  I love the thank you at the end with three exclamation points.

• 25:23Speaker 01

  Yeah, Trump, your keyboard is running out of gas right now, bro. Like you just, you eventually somebody's gonna call his bluff. He gonna have to kill somebody. And I hate that I'm saying it like that, but you tweeting stuff to Hamas, you tweeting stuff to Russia, like it's not getting those results. I feel like.

• 25:38Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah. Yeah. I mean, we were talking about this in the last one. This one doesn't ring that way to me. This one feels like the kind of.

• 25:47Tom Bilyeu?

  This is not the kind of rhetoric that I want to see, but for Trump, this, okay, at least now we're talking about economic warfare versus the actual escalation of hot warfare. So this one does feel to me like we're negotiating out in public. So Trump is saying the things in public that he needs to say to make sure that Putin knows that, hey, if you're not, if you're going to become the problem, I just had to do all this bullshit with Zelensky to try to get him to be prepared to make concessions. If you're not willing to make concessions, then I'm going to unleash the double barrel of the economic sanctions. Now, the problem is, you have slow stepped sanctions, you being the US government, not

• 26:32Tom Bilyeu?

  only Trump, but we as the US government has slow stepped the sanctions on Russia to the point where they've been able to harden themselves against it, to find ways around it. So there's no doubt that we put some hardship on them, and there are experts that believe that their economy only has, call it a year or two years left before they're really going to be in dire straits, that they cannot afford to keep this war going. I don't know that that's true, but that's certainly being talked about in serious circles. We'll see. So it's possible that another round, if he's really going to be aggressive, could. But here's what I think would have to be true for these sanctions to be useful.

• 27:15Tom Bilyeu?

  He would have to sanction the purchase of oil and natural gas from Russia. Period, full stop. Because the reasons that these sanctions have been so weakened, and by the way, we did an interview with Edward Fishman, who was a former lead at the State Department, actually engaged specifically with Russia.

• 27:36Speaker 01

  He was sanctioned by Russia himself.

• 27:37Tom Bilyeu?

  He literally was sanctioned by Russia. You are correct. And had him on the show talking about, are the tariffs going to work? Are sanctions going to work? And He was saying like, if you do it, you have to go all the way. And if you don't, then you can put them in a position, much like he likened it to antibiotics. If you use an antibiotic, but stop before you kill it all the way dead, then the ones that are alive are the ones that are resistant to the antibiotic. And so what we have right now is a Russia that became immune to the antibiotics of the sanctions because the thing that drives their economy is oil and natural gas. And because Europe was like, oh, God, we can't stop buying this stuff from them because it would spike our energy costs too much.

• 28:19Tom Bilyeu?

  You would have to find a way, either, and if I had to guess, this is what Trump is thinking, between the US and Canada, you're going to be able to, if you end the green policies, you're going to be able to create enough oil and natural gas between just what we can do and then supply that to Europe, be great for America, be good for Europe to be able to wean themselves off of Russia. And if you can get them to start doing less green policies, what I'll call more sensible policies, because I certainly get the impulse to want to go green, but it's just not there yet from an economic standpoint, stop weakening yourself by having to subsidize people's energy bills. Just start leaning into nuclear, start leaning into, if they have, I don't know enough about

• 29:00Tom Bilyeu?

  Europe's ability to get oil and natural gas natively, but certainly us being able to export, them leaning into reverting to their policies before that, certainly leaning into nuclear. Okay, so if that, if you do that, and then you sanction the life out of Europe and tell any country that wants to buy oil and natural gas from Russia, that we're now going to sanction you. So if you're Germany and you're buying oil and natural gas from Russia, when you could be buying it from us or Canada, that we're going to sanction the life out of you. If you did that, I'm not saying we should, but I'm saying if we did, then that could

• 29:38Tom Bilyeu?

  conceivably damage Russia's economy so horrifically that they would be forced to come to the table? Now, to your point about Trump has to, your words, shoot somebody, kill somebody, whatever the exact phrase was, doesn't necessarily, and this was one of the things that Edward Fishman goes into, is if you do economic sanctions or economic warfare well enough, you can top a government without firing a single shot. So it is possible that this one would actually work. So while it's, you know, more big talk from Trump.

• 30:12Tom Bilyeu?

  If what I laid out is actually what he has in mind, it could work. So we'll see.

• 30:19Tom Bilyeu?

  Quick break, but don't go anywhere. There's more to come after this short break from our sponsors.

• 30:26Tom Bilyeu?

  All right, we're back. Let's get into it.

• 30:29Speaker 01

  EU on the other hand is beefing up their defense spending, committing to 800 billion to 1 trillion US dollars. Those are US dollar sums in defense spending to make a new global superpower. I want to say a European joint.

• 30:44Speaker 02

  And this is why.

• 30:45Speaker 01

  And this is the EU present committing to it right now.

• 30:47Speaker 02

  Activate the national escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact. This would allow member states to significantly increase their defense expenditures without triggering the excessive deficit procedure. So if member states would increase their defense spending by 1.5% of GDP on average, this could create fiscal space of close to 650 billion euros over a period of four years.

• 31:12Speaker 02

  The second proposal will be a new instrument. It will provide 150 billion euros of loans to member states for defense investment. This is about basically spending better and spending together. And we're talking about pan-European capabilities domains like, for example, air and missile defense, the artillery systems, missiles and ammunition, drones and anti-drone systems, but also to address other needs from cyber to military mobility, for example. This will help member states to pull demand and to buy together. And of course, with this equipment, member states can massively step up their support to Ukraine. So immediate military equipment for Ukraine.

• 31:52Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, this makes a lot of sense to me. It is a fascinating consequence of the way that Trump has been behaving on the world stage that what you're seeing is Europe come together in a way that, quite frankly, they ought to be. Now, I would love to see Europe coming together in a way that aligns with America. I don't love that this is being born out of them feeling like Trump is fickle, but at least they are coming together. They obviously, there is a very compelling argument to be made. Jeffrey Sachs would hate it, but there's a very compelling argument to be made. Europe needs to worry very much about a territorially aggressive Russia that they will be pushing into

• 32:34Tom Bilyeu?

  traditionally Soviet era areas and trying to reunify them. Everybody's got their eyes on Poland. I think that the right way to look at that is, look, if they've struggled this hard with getting into Ukraine, the odds of them being able to steamroll Poland are very low. But at some point, you have to draw the line in the sand, and it seems like that's what Europe is leaning towards, that the line in the sand is Ukraine. And if America's backing out, then forget it. We're gonna engage, we're gonna come together, we're gonna offer this funding in order to make sure that the Ukrainians can continue this fight, because we absolutely cannot concede to somebody that's trying to push their will, violating the world order that you were referring to earlier as this peacetime,

• 33:19Tom Bilyeu?

  where we just in the West said, you don't get to do territorial acquisitions just because you're stronger, that all of us are gonna push back on you. Now that I would love to see, I would love to see people saying, yeah, we don't do the violent overthrowing of a nation just because we can. That is definitely a world that I want to continue to live in, where people do not do that. But it does become a question of at what price. And you get into the realities have to be faced, and this is a debate that really needs to rage on and should not be shut down from a First Amendment standpoint. You need the debate of who's right about why Russia invaded Ukraine? Is he imperialist and he has territory acquisition dreams that are just part of this national identity?

• 34:04Tom Bilyeu?

  Then this belief that we're stronger and we need to reunify the former USSR? Or was this entirely based on provocations of the West constantly moving NATO closer and closer to their borders? Because remember, NATO was put together to keep Russia in check. And so Russia's like, hey, remember the Cuban Missile Crisis? That was you guys having a beef with Russia bringing nuclear capabilities to your doorstep. You didn't like that, so much so that we We only narrowly avoided nuclear war. But I'm supposed to just sit here as you keep making more and more countries closer and closer to my borders. Members of NATO, like if if Ukraine became part of NATO, we literally have a border now with a NATO country.

• 34:48Tom Bilyeu?

  We're not going to stand for that. There has to be some sort of buffer zone. That debate needs to rage. I'm not saying I know the answer. I'm just saying that debate needs to rage. Like, we need to let people pull out as much information as possible, come up with as many testable hypotheses as possible. So we can really begin to zoom in on what this is. But no matter what it is, Europe being able to protect itself, Europe allocating their own dollars to being able to protect themselves. Europe just being together in lockstep is going to be by far the greatest way for Russia to have whatever tendencies they have kept in check. Now, it does bring questions back to are we now going into a tri-polar world?

• 35:32Tom Bilyeu?

  Where you've got the US with its sphere of influence, you've got China with its sphere of influence. And now is Europe going to be forced into playing the hand of, I guess, we now have our sphere of influence? It might. It might. And I don't have a strong take yet on whether that's a good or a bad thing. But I do know that the US playing World Cup did not have only positive consequences. So it might don't feel strongly yet. It might be better.

• 36:05Speaker 01

  I would just love for them to clean up their own backyard and leave us out of it. So I'm glad that they're taking steps to do that. It's cool to make a budget, though, and it's cool to form coalitions, but everybody thinks they're going to win until they're actually in the war. And push come to shove, if we still have to go and then bail them out, then they just spent a whole bunch of money for us to do the same thing that we could have done from day one. So we'll see how it plays out, but it's an interesting worst case scenario there as well.

• 36:29Tom Bilyeu?

  Why do you say worst case scenario?

• 36:31Speaker 01

  Because they're spending all this money and then if it turns out to be moot and not enough and they don't have the capabilities for war.

• 36:37Tom Bilyeu?

  Well, I.

• 36:39Speaker 01

  Because just because you spend a lot of money doesn't mean you're like going to win a war.

• 36:42Tom Bilyeu?

  Meaning that they might still lose.

• 36:44Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 36:44Tom Bilyeu?

  For sure, but if you throw a trillion dollars, even mildly intelligently, that's another trillion dollars that Russia has to fight through. So you will at a minimum weaken them from a manpower standpoint, you will weaken them from an economic standpoint. Uh, and if you get the one-two punch of Europe comes together, spends a trillion dollars helping Ukraine fight. And the US looks at that and goes, hell no, and puts all these crazy sanctions uh on Russia. And remember, many of those sanctions will look like us punishing European nations and other countries for buying their natural gas and oil. If you do all of that together, then you, if you meaningfully disrupt Russia's

• 37:29Tom Bilyeu?

  sales of oil and natural gas, they're, they're really in trouble, like really, really in trouble. So I don't think they would be able to survive that war. I think that really would if America is prepared to make good on that. Uh, I think that would bring a pretty hasty end to the war.

• 37:48Speaker 01

  Copy. And in other political news, President Trump officially signed the executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve. David Sett put out this tweet as his, as the announcement. Just a few minutes ago, President Trump signed an executive order to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve. The reserve will be capitalized with Bitcoin owned by the federal government that was forfeited as a part of criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings. This means it will not cost taxpayers a dime. I know you're excited about that part.

• 38:14Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, buddy.

• 38:14Speaker 01

  It is estimated that US government owns about 200,000 Bitcoin. However, there has never been a complete audit. The EO directs a full accounting of the federal government's digital asset holdings. The US will not sell any Bitcoin deposited into the reserve. It will be kept as a store of value. The reserve is like a digital Fort Knox for the cryptocurrency often called digital, uh, digital gold. Premature sales of Bitcoin have already caused taxpayers over 17 billion in lost value. Now, the federal government will have a strategy to maximize the value of its holdings. To get to that seventeen, he brought up an example of how we we sold off around thirteen thirty three hundred million of Bitcoin that we forfeited from civil and criminal proceedings. And if we would have held on to that, it would have ballooned up to seventeen billion dollars.

• 38:58Tom Bilyeu?

  Wow.

• 38:59Speaker 01

  Your thoughts on the strategic Bitcoin reserve?

• 39:01Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, I mean, look, I because we didn't spend money to buy it, we just already have it. And now we're just saying we're not going to foolishly sell it. That I like. Obviously, as a holder of Bitcoin, I love it because it just further shows the credibility that this asset has been able to build up. I think you would be very hard pressed when the most successful government, the largest economy for the most part, has backed it and said, okay, this is a real store of value. And we see enough upside future potential that we think it is an absolute mistake to sell this stuff off. That sends a very clear signal to, if nobody else, to a kid right now that's twelve years

• 39:44Tom Bilyeu?

  old and they just live in a world where, oh, I just hear in the background, this thing matters. I see it as a ticker on, you know, when my parents are watching the news. So they're just growing up in a world where we now have a strategic reserve of Bitcoin. We now have Bitcoin tickers that pay attention to the price. It will become a part of what news shows talk about. So it will just be the thing. It will be the water that kids grow up in. And so, given my whole thesis about Bitcoin is that tomorrow will be more digital than today, and therefore that is going to continue to increase in value. This is a pretty big moment for that, and there's a reason why people have wanted it. Now, the reason I don't want the government necessarily spending money on it, I leave myself a bit of an out because there are certainly scenarios that I could paint where

• 40:26Tom Bilyeu?

  I'd be like, even though I think this is gambling, it's a reasonable way to gamble. But that would take a very specific set of things to be true. But for the most part, I don't want to see the government spending money to buy assets. I want to see them leveraging assets that we already have. So whether that's oil and natural gas, whether that's timber, whether that's Bitcoin that we've already seized, things like that, yay. But yeah, going out and acquiring assets is where I get a little bit less sure. If we can get shares from TikTok by getting the deal done, that one really lands smack dab in that gray area for me where I'm like, do I want the government getting involved in that and negotiating like that? I don't know. I don't know is the honest answer.

• 41:10Speaker 01

  Only time will tell. Now hitting a podcast circuit, Sam Banker Freed was on with Tucker Carlson, and this moment kind of stood out to you. I'm gonna play the clip and then we'll talk about it.

• 41:20Speaker 03

  So you were famously identified with a worldview and ideology, maybe even a religion called effective altruism. And the idea was that, as I understand it, that you do the greatest good for the greatest number. You make money in order to help the maximum number of people. And some have pointed out the irony that in the collapse of your company, like a million people lost their money. So there were a lot of individuals hurt in an effort that you described as like the greatest good for the greatest number. And I wonder if all of this has made you rethink the precepts of effective altruism.

• 41:43Speaker 04

  It hasn't made me rethink the precepts, obviously. I feel terrible about what happened. It's not at all what I need. And whatever my intentions are, I, you know, if you screw up, then the results might be different.

• 41:54Tom Bilyeu?

  Cause it for example.

• 41:56Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, so judge things by the fruit that they bear. That, that sums up my whole thing about, if you want to know whether you did something right or wrong, you need only look at assuming you have an honorable goal. Okay, you have an honorable goal. Did the things that you do get you to that honorable goal? Yes or no? If yes, great, you did the right thing. If no, then you did not do the right thing. This obviously does not work if your goal is fundamentally grotesque. But so assuming that you have an honorable goal.

• 42:28Tom Bilyeu?

  So if effective altruism in reality does not bear the fruit that it should on paper, like communism, like socialism, then you've got to say, this just doesn't fucking work. Now, this situation is very complicated. Drugs were involved, hubris was involved, yada, yada. But that's the reality of the human condition. And so expecting people to make honorable decisions when they only think the final outcome matters, forgetting that they can't control the final outcome, you, you get problems. And so to me, this is a,

• 43:10Tom Bilyeu?

  what I hear him saying is, well, but on paper, it's still awesome. There are a lot of things that on paper are awesome, but all of us, myself very much included, have got to look at, well, but in practice, is it awesome? And this, needless to say, was not awesome in practice.

• 43:26Speaker 01

  All right, now let's keep this Destiny clip. Uh, my man Eric, we're about to play it soon. So for context, yesterday on Destiny's stream, he reacted to his interview with Tom. You guys covered terrorists, inflation, and this was right around the election. So this is when Trump and Harris were neck to neck and we didn't know who was gonna win. So just for context, how it was.

• 43:42Tom Bilyeu?

  And I have legitimately not seen this.

• 43:44Speaker 01

  So this is a live reaction of Tom being reacted to live.

• 43:48Speaker 03

  Even when I bang on a table and say, I know this and I understand this and everybody should listen. People should merely take it as a data point that allows them to build a more cohesive worldview.

• 43:53Tom Bilyeu?

  Play it at 1X, please.

• 43:55Speaker 01

  No, Destiny played it.

• 43:56Tom Bilyeu?

  Oh, he's playing.

• 43:57Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 43:57Tom Bilyeu?

  That's hilarious. Got it?

• 43:59Speaker 03

  Don't have all the right answers. I don't want anybody to have one right answers. Everybody needs something for themselves. No one is coming to save us. We want to map the world as it actually is. Okay. Only thing to talk about, Charles.

• 44:06Tom Bilyeu?

  What is this? Okay, this is him clicking around.

• 44:08Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 44:08Speaker 03

  This inflation. The second you print money, you are fucking. What do you think Harris would do? Harris would cause tons of money. Remember, you can map me. So my thing on terrorists is that most of it's posturing, that he's gonna do it selectively. And if he doesn't, and he really doesn't cross everything, he's a fucking moron. But he's already done terrorists. Why would I want to say he wouldn't do more? But he did terrorists reasonably well. He didn't, though, right? Just increased the cost of goods in the United States. We didn't actually bring anything where you want to do that. So take the chips, for instance. If we're really trying to onshore things, or take things that are weapons manufacturing, anything that's in that chain, even if it's slightly more expensive for us to do it domestically, we need to do it. Because I think, again, I think.

• 44:28Tom Bilyeu?

  I do not want to be dictator very much because I think I'm very fallible. Uh, but it is odds are that we're moving towards conflict with China. The last thing I want are my artillery shells or bullets or whatever to be hamstrung by their ability to produce.

• 44:36Speaker 03

  Which I think is, I think that's fair and I think that there are national security arguments you can use for tariffs. Uh, Trump very rarely makes these, he usually makes economic arguments for it. But what you're talking about, they would say, you do say, we'll probably pay a little bit more for this, but it's probably worth it for the national security implications. And I agree with some of that for sure. I signed it across the board tariff.

• 44:45Tom Bilyeu?

  I agree.

• 44:45Speaker 03

  So.

• 44:46Tom Bilyeu?

  Let me say one more time.

• 44:46Speaker 03

  Okay.

• 44:46Tom Bilyeu?

  More serious, ironic.

• 44:47Speaker 03

  We're saying that Kamala suggesting the tax on unrealized gains, which I'll bet you hear now, you bet, you know, five thousand, $10,000 will never happen because it's such a stupid policy. All forms of wealth tax, financial transaction tax, unrealized gain taxes are untenable for a billion different reasons.

• 44:56Tom Bilyeu?

  Yep.

• 44:57Speaker 03

  Okay.

• 44:57Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, positive.

• 44:57Speaker 03

  So I know it won't happen. Um.

• 44:59Tom Bilyeu?

  Uh, so I again, I have not, I don't remember the rest of the conversation that we had, but that's going to go something like, um, well, when she puts forward absurd policy, it's just never going to happen. When Trump puts forward absurd policy, well, you have to actually take that seriously. So remember, this was recorded. I had no idea what Trump was actually going to do with his tariffs. And I kept saying in the interview, if he doesn't across the board tariff, that's dumb. So anyway, keep playing.

• 45:26Speaker 03

  Okay, even if she might have flirted with me, I don't know what she's talking about now. But so we're, we're saying that she will do that. We're generally concerned about that, but we're not generally concerned about Trump doing the only economic policy that he's given, that he's basically running on, that he's shown indications of and has done a little bit in the past.

• 45:36Tom Bilyeu?

  Because one, I've seen what four years under Trump looks like.

• 45:39Speaker 03

  It was bad for everything that you care about. It was horrible. He spent like crazy, printed money like crazy.

• 45:42Tom Bilyeu?

  Oh, he did on that? They're both.

• 45:43Speaker 05

  But he did. I don't understand how people are so resistant. They'll say the things. It's not just this guy, by the way, because it was the guy that I talked to last time and the guy before, Richard, uh, and the, the, the law, um, TikTok guy. Where they'll say like, I care about this thing. It's like, okay, wait, wait, wait, wait, hold on. You said that you care about this thing, right? It's the guy is like, my favorite person in all of human history is OJ Simpson. Okay, hold on, let's go back. What are the things you care the most about again? Um, I hate people that play sports and I value the lives of white women more than anything else in the world. Okay, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, hold on.

• 46:20Speaker 05

  And I'm racist. Wait, hold on. Wait, wait. Okay, well, wait. I feel like, isn't, okay. Wasn't he like a football player though? Hmm, okay, maybe. Oh, wait, wait, okay. What about like the whole like murder thing? Sure. Okay, maybe. Past performance is not an indicator of future behavior. Okay, and then also, isn't he black? It's like,

• 46:37Speaker 05

  that means a lot of things. It's like, okay, wait, so. And then the, the comparison is like, like to like Bill Gates or some like white nerd on Athletic. It's like, okay. Make this make sense for me.

• 46:48Tom Bilyeu?

  Here is, you have two opposing worldviews. So he is looking at me as somebody who is on a team. And that I'm saying, um, Trump can do no wrong. And when, if, because he said like, this is your favorite person in the world. At, obviously just making an example. Trump is not my favorite person in the world. Um, I was sad that Trump was the only option that I considered reasonable. He was not the person that I want. I did not want to be choosing between Kamala Harris and Trump. Uh, also, with the, why was I quote unquote, giving Trump a pass on the money printing? I'm not.

• 47:32Tom Bilyeu?

  And so I've got two governments, both of whom money print like fucking crazy. So those just cancel each other out. So the money printing, I'm not going to be like, yeah, you got to disqualify Trump on money printing so that I go to the other money printer? I'm saying if I had a choice between one government, that was like, dude, we understand. We are driving towards a fiscal cliff. We have got to back off from that. This government will never money print. There is no way. We are focused on innovation. I'd be like, fuck, yes. Like, I want to go to that team. But they both print like psychopaths. So it's just that those two cancel each other out. So if you want to, like, if I'm having to, to go back to his example, if I'm having to choose between two people that murdered people, I'm like, fuck. It's like, okay, well, I'm not going to be able to make the decision based on that.

• 48:18Speaker 05

  To Destiny's point.

• 48:21Speaker 01

  He did say that across-the-board tariffs were bad. And you're like, yeah, if he does across-the-board tariffs, that'll be like fucking crazy. And Trump is doing across-the-board tariffs right now.

• 48:30Tom Bilyeu?

  Right?

• 48:31Speaker 01

  So.

• 48:32Tom Bilyeu?

  Do you hear me going, oh my God, these are amazing. I'm so glad he's doing across-the-board tariffs.

• 48:37Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 48:38Tom Bilyeu?

  Wait, what do you mean, yes?

• 48:39Speaker 01

  No, no, no, no.

• 48:39Tom Bilyeu?

  You hear me saying that?

• 48:40Speaker 01

  Okay. I heard that you're not saying, yes, tariffs are great. I love tariffs. Let's do more tariffs.

• 48:46Tom Bilyeu?

  I said, literally, if he doesn't across-the-board tariffs, that would be fucking stupid.

• 48:52Tom Bilyeu?

  And? Do you hear me championing them now? Or do you hear me being very consistent with that? Because my hypothesis remains that you're going to put yourself in a position where you are now playing chicken. Now, admittedly, I don't know how it will play out. And the more I look into tariffs, the more I'm like, okay. It, it has one outcome, which is it will onshore manufacturing, which we need to do. But it will also piss off your trade partners. And if you're doing them as, as far as I can tell, as um, I think Trump is driven largely by two things. The desire to onshore, he is right about that. It is, the more I research about that, the more I'm like, holy fuck.

• 49:36Tom Bilyeu?

  We have got to onshore some of our manufacturing. And then the other is, this like, super weird, petty, like, it's gotta be fair, it's gotta be fair. Now, I haven't looked at it enough to know if we should be worried about like, one for one. We probably shouldn't. So. It's like, that one is. Yeah, it's probably a bad idea. And the way that he's doing it is putting us in this super weird fucking position where now we are racing towards catastrophe in terms of if he is not able to onshore enough jobs fast enough. If he is not able to get other countries and companies to invest in America, large enough, fast enough.

• 50:19Tom Bilyeu?

  It will have been an unmitigated disaster. But what I don't understand is how people think that I'm thinking through the problem in any way other than I know where I'm trying to end up. I need to be in a strong position to protect myself from a hot war with China, which people may want to pretend is not a possibility. That shit is a very real possibility.

• 50:40Speaker 01

  And onshore gets us there.

• 50:41Tom Bilyeu?

  Onshoring, dude, onshoring the most important elements of our modern life, from modern warfare, which is going to be drones and semiconductors, which, guess what China controls? Rare earth minerals for batteries and shit like that. Guess what China controls? So it's like, we are in this super weakened position. And I understand that we have to get an outcome that brings that stuff home. Is across the board tariffs going to do it? As far as I can tell, across the board tariffs put you in a very precarious position. And so I do not love that this is his strategy.

• 51:23Tom Bilyeu?

  So will they end up coming to fruition unless remember this is halftime? We don't know where this is going to go yet. But dude, I am, I'm watching the way that he's doing this. And I'm like, if I were advising you, I would not be advising you to do this.

• 51:38Speaker 01

  And he's already pulled back a lot of these tariffs. The auto tariffs got pulled back. He just also pulled back some more from Canada, Mexico, because he was violating the trade agreement that you and Edward talked about, which I'm very excited about that interview to drop.

• 51:51Tom Bilyeu?

  Help me see something I don't see. So I will, and I hope you know, and I certainly hope the audience knows, I will give you my best, most voracious argument as a way to test whether or not my argument holds water, because I want to see if you're still like, no, that doesn't make any fucking sense. And you've got to look at it from this angle, which will only make me more able to predict the outcome of my behaviors, which will make me able to be in the stock market better and make more fucking money. So even if you just trust me to be selfish, I just want to know, like, what actually works? Because my self-esteem is not based around being right. My self-esteem is based around identifying the right answer faster than the next person and making that something real in my life that leads me to the places that I want to go,

• 52:36Tom Bilyeu?

  which include getting even wealthier, which include building the biggest video game of all time. So. Just trusting me to be selfish? If you understand what I build my self-esteem around, you will understand why? I'm like, yeah, yeah. The guy saying the bad things, go back to him. I want to hear what the the bad things are. You.

• 52:53Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 52:53Tom Bilyeu?

  So give it to me. I want to know, like, what do you think I'm being blind to? Where am I?

• 52:58Speaker 01

  That's the thing, though. I spend time with you, so I understand how you make decisions. So that's why I see the one, two, three, four, five. And a lot of times when we're playing the politics game, it's they want you to come on here and say, Trump did terrorists, he's fucked up. And as soon as they hear this, they're like, yay, Tom gets it again. So it's not necessarily you have a take wrong, or you have a, you are blind to something. It's they want you to disagree as feverishly as they disagree, so that way you can be on there.

• 53:23Tom Bilyeu?

  It's fucking nonsensical.

• 53:25Speaker 01

  But that's that it's emotional, they're looking for emotional responses.

• 53:28Tom Bilyeu?

  And we may remain a small channel until the end of time, because I'm that that is the game. And that unless I can give people that, they are not going to be interested. I get it. Uh, entertainment is a drug that people take because they want to feel a certain way. And if I'm not able to make people feel the way they want to feel, this show will stall. Understood. I, I steer by the following observation. All that matters is how you feel about yourself when you're by yourself. And so I have to say the things that I believe to be true. Because I I have maybe erroneously built a value system inside of myself

• 54:11Tom Bilyeu?

  that says, every word out of my fucking mouth has to be true. And it has to lead to making other people's lives better. And that's where I'm like, if people will argue with me at the level of value system, then, ooh, now we can have, because people always want to argue at the level of belief. My beliefs?

• 54:32Speaker 01

  But that's the thing, it's a headline argument. So, okay, first argument, Trump is a fascist, Trump is a Nazi. You shouldn't like Trump because he's divisive. We can play the.

• 54:41Tom Bilyeu?

  Very different statements.

• 54:43Speaker 01

  But.

• 54:43Tom Bilyeu?

  The divisive part, I care not about. I, well, that's not quite true. I wish he could bring people together. That would be super powerful. Uh, I am far more drawn to characters that can bring people together, for sure.

• 54:58Tom Bilyeu?

  But if Trump, this is why, and somebody said in the comments, well, Tom, Trump was saying that he wanted to run for a third term before. Why are you acting surprised now? And the reason is honestly, when he said it earlier, I was always like, ah, I don't like that. But I thought he was being funny. Then he started going for Greenland, Panama Canal, Canada, and talking about running for a third term. I was like, oh, God. This is somebody revealing exactly like this little thing inside of them. And I think Trump has imperialistic impulses.

• 55:32Speaker 01

  And all of these things were not as important as taxing unrealized gains to you.

• 55:41Tom Bilyeu?

  They were not visible to me at the time, but if you re-held the election today, I would still vote for Trump. So, but that doesn't mean, that is me choosing between two bad options. That is not me saying, oh, there's somebody perfect. But also, by the way, we're on the all things, we're talking about all the things that I don't like. There are also a lot of things that I do like about what Trump is doing. And so, yeah, if the nice succinct way to put it is, I'm growing increasingly skeptical that Trump will be able to get a positive outcome. And at the same time today, given those same two choices over, I would make the same decision still, for sure.

• 56:24Speaker 01

  Because you're in, you didn't have faith in who Kamala was as a presidential candidate because of her.

• 56:31Tom Bilyeu?

  I think the entire Democratic Party has a value system that will run us into the ground. It will become increasingly authoritarian. It will be economically nonsensical. They will, they would have,

• 56:47Tom Bilyeu?

  clamp down on AI. We would continue to be at China's mercy from a manufacturing standpoint. They want to control the narrative, which is why they all speak with one unified voice. They are anti-first amendment. Like, they, those things are so much more dangerous than the things that I see coming out of Trump's camp. Because here's what I think is going to happen to, the thing about Trump that scares me the most is not that he'll make an economic mistake. The economy is extremely difficult. It does scare me, and you will continue to hear me make noises if I think Trump is misstepping. But the thing that I worry most about with him is bonapartism. And the bonapartism, I think, will get checked at the midterms.

• 57:30Tom Bilyeu?

  So it takes, and it takes a literal act of Congress to amend the Constitution. So I think the Constitution will protect us, but I'm not going to lie and say that it isn't becoming self-evident that Trump has an imperialist impulse from the rhetoric around Gaza. I mean, it's just like, that's undeniable. So again, I will seem crazy if people think I'm on a team. I am not on a team. I have an end state that I'm trying to reach. I voted for the person that I thought would get us there. That person remains, though by a decreasing margin, the person that I think is actually most likely to get us there. If he continues to do shit that causes problems like, I mean, right now, the short-term effect on the economy is horrendous on the stock market. I should be more clear.

• 58:14Tom Bilyeu?

  The short-term impact on the stock market is ugly. And so now it becomes a question, is it a short-term blip as he's off an R? Or is he legitimately going to run us aground? Don't know. We're going to see that play out. But all the people that look at me or anybody else, and they keep trying to take it back to, uh, he was a moron and he voted for the wrong person and he's now just trying to defend him. You're, you're, I am unable to pierce your frame of reference because that is a nonsensical way to interpret the words that I'm saying. There's no way they could repeat my stance back to me in a way that I would recognize. There's no way.

• 58:57Tom Bilyeu?

  Because I have said over and over and over exactly how I process data. I can go point by point and explain exactly how I'm processing data. And then people are trying to cram that into their team-based worldview. And it, I, this will happen in marriages. This will happen in, uh, when working with teammates in a company.

• 59:17Tom Bilyeu?

  You're literally saying one thing, but it deflects off their worldview that they are projecting onto you. And so I will say to my wife routinely, if I meant what you would have meant when I said those words, I get why you're upset. But since I didn't mean that, we have to go with what did I actually mean? And so then you break it down. You say, okay, this is what I mean. I can say it to you in a single sentence that's less than 35 words. Tell me my position back to me in a way that I say, yes, yes, you understand my position. If then she's like, I understand your position, but I disagree with it. Cool. Now, now we're having an argument at the level of values and beliefs. We are not having an argument at the level of two ships passing in the night where if you said the words I said,

• 1:00:02Tom Bilyeu?

  they would mean something different than when I say them.

• 1:00:04Speaker 01

  There is one thing, there is one thing that, uh, what would it have to take for you to say, I regret, I regret voting for Trump?

• 1:00:11Tom Bilyeu?

  What would have to happen?

• 1:00:12Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:00:14Tom Bilyeu?

  Uh, if he hollows out the middle class even more, uh, if he puts us on a weakened stage with China. The thing I care the most about China is scary, but the thing I care most about is thriving, uh, lower and middle class. Again, you need only trust me to be selfish. As a wealthy person, you sell things to, at least the things that I make are sold to, uh, the middle class. So it's like, I need them to be thriving. Even just for, even if you don't think I care about people, which I fucking do.

• 1:00:50Tom Bilyeu?

  Even if I'm just being a greedy capitalist, you cannot function as a society if you don't have a thriving middle class. It's fucking crazy. I'm also not a pull the ladder up behind me guy. So, uh, I came from middle, there's an argument to be made. I came from lower middle class and

• 1:01:10Tom Bilyeu?

  becoming successful has been one of the great thrills of my life because it did not feel like it was an outcropping of innate talents that I had. It feels like it was an outcropping of learning a way of thinking that I was not taught as a kid. And going, oh my God, this works so much better than what I was taught as a kid. Holy shit. Like you can teach other people to do this fuck. And now, long before anybody knows who I am privately in my companies, there are no cameras on me. Nobody knows who the fuck I am. I'm just a guy building a company. And I'm like, I will show up early. I will stay late. This is to drug dealers, gang members. I will show up early. I will stay late. I will teach you anything, including building a competitive company to mine. Because I want you to understand how powerful these ideas are.

• 1:01:54Tom Bilyeu?

  And I can see you've been trapped by what at that time I realized was an ideas problem. It's not a money problem. You guys can, if you can adopt these ideas, they will change your life.

• 1:02:06Speaker 01

  What are the KPIs then? So you say, how about the middle class? I love that term, but it sounds it's a generic term. Like, are you saying the middle class will decline? The inflation rate will drop below this rate? You want to see average earnings increase? What does it mean to have a bolstering middle class?

• 1:02:25Tom Bilyeu?

  Love that. Okay, so there are a few key metrics you want to look at. Right now, what you have is more people than ever are becoming wealthy. Okay, yay, right? No, because more people than ever are becoming poor. And so what you see is this, where you're going to have these two wildly stratified contingents. Now, the problem lies with the Gini coefficient. And you can't live in that world. So the wealthy will try to distance themselves physically, intellectually, every which way possible, from the poor. And the poor will always be the far larger group. And they will come to kill the rich.

• 1:03:08Tom Bilyeu?

  So again, just from a perspective of self-preservation, that sounds fucking terrible. So one of the metrics that we're going to look at is, is the middle class getting bigger? So are people going from poor to middle class? Like, that is a fucking key. You want to see that happening like crazy. And then mine is, one of the core things has got to be that the poor and middle class can just save their money to success. Not gamble, not bet on the stock market. If they want to do that, it's amazing. And I hope that they do because owning assets is very powerful, even when your money's not being inflated. But you have to understand it. It is a complicated game where you can lose your money as fast as you make your money.

• 1:03:52Tom Bilyeu?

  So I want them, want everybody to have the ability to do it. I don't want anybody to be forced to do it. So those two are massively important and can be measured just on a financial scale.

• 1:04:06Tom Bilyeu?

  There will be more, but those are the easiest two to talk about that are just, they're gonna be naked in the data.

• 1:04:14Speaker 01

  And then last one, just from poor to middle class. You want to see upward mobility, so is that again, what is the, how do you define going from poor to middle class? Cause I think.

• 1:04:27Tom Bilyeu?

  It'll be a question of earnings, real earnings per household.

• 1:04:34Speaker 01

  Copy. Household earnings increasing.

• 1:04:35Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, but real, like you have to understand the difference between nominal, where it's like, yeah, you number go up, but it only go up because of inflation. Real is like, you're actually outstripping inflation.

• 1:04:50Speaker 01

  So household earnings adjusted for inflation increasing?

• 1:04:53Tom Bilyeu?

  Yes. I, man, I think Destiny is dope. Even if he wears a shirt that says Tom is a retard, like I still think he is a, I'm so glad that he is in the public sphere. Somebody was saying, I think it was a Charlie Kirk interview with Gavin Newsom, which man, do I love. I, I am very impressed with Gavin Newsom. A sentence I never thought I would say as a Californian.

• 1:05:16Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 1:05:17Tom Bilyeu?

  But the fact that he brought, he brought Charlie Kirk in.

• 1:05:20Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 1:05:21Tom Bilyeu?

  Very impressed.

• 1:05:21Speaker 01

  That's exactly where I was going. It worked. Gavin Newsom saw that podcasts were big. He says, I'm gonna start a podcast and let me go sit with the other side. And he's flip flopping on positions. Everything he said, everything he was 10 toes down, six months ago now. Oh yeah, I don't, I never felt that way. I feel completely different.

• 1:05:37Tom Bilyeu?

  I would like you to press the James Brennan button. That is so self evident. So now you at least have somebody that's good at what he does. This is why people call Gavin Newsom slippery. He's got enough charisma, enough good looks that he can pull it off. He can do it. So anyway, I, the thing that I'm impressed with is that he sat down with Charlie Kirk. Like he was willing to go 10 toes down with Charlie Kirk, who is a formidable foe for anybody on the left. I, I am impressed and I now understand how Newsom has gotten where he's gotten.

• 1:06:07Speaker 01

  I have, I have a clip. Can we play that clip? I sent you the Gavin Newsom clip.

• 1:06:11Speaker 03

  Last night, trying to put my son to bed. He's like, no dad, I just, what time, what time's Charlie gonna be here? What time? And I'm like, dude, you're in school tomorrow. He's 13. He's like, no, no, this morning wakes up at six up and he's like, I'm coming. I'm like, great. He literally would not leave the house. Did you let him take off school? No, he did. Of course not. He's not here for a good reason, but the point is the point. You canceled school for like two years, once, one, one day. The point is the point.

• 1:06:35Speaker 01

  Which is you are making a damn That's why he's good. Dead.

• 1:06:38Speaker 03

  Thank you. I'm kidding.

• 1:06:39Speaker 01

  When you go to these I just like that was hilarious like and it was just like, ha, ha, ha. You got me. But that's how you do it.

• 1:06:45Tom Bilyeu?

  How you do it, guys. The techniques are in full view. They are in full view. Uh, yeah. Look, easy charm, man. An easy laugh just blows it off. It it diffused Charlie Kirk. He didn't keep pushing. If he had argued there, if he'd gotten annoyed, uh, if he hadn't allowed himself to be the butt of a joke, then it would have become a thing. Ah, it's very slick, man. It's very slick. Let's race through two things real fast. So one, just on the podcast circuit, one thing that I found very interesting was you had PBD that had on Andrew Tate and you had Ian Carroll on Rogan. Ian Carroll is known for just being way, way deep in conspiracy theories.

• 1:07:28Tom Bilyeu?

  And one question you'd asked me before is, should somebody like that who's popping off about things that they can't prove, should they be able to talk? Same idea with Tate. Some people think that he's an absolute criminal that should be locked away and never heard from again. Uh, should he be allowed to talk? For me, this is a First Amendment question and 1,000% I believe people should be able to talk. Even if they're lying, I think people should be able to talk. Why? Because I don't want anyone to get to control who they think is lying or is telling the truth. That is an absolute nightmare. The only way for us to navigate intelligently is to let people argue ideas, no matter how outside the realm of, uh, acceptable discourse you think it is. People should be able to put their ideas forward and let them be debated.

• 1:08:11Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, I'm all within the confines of what the Supreme Court has ruled on. But First Amendment all day, let people talk. The second you find yourself with the impulse to tell people to shut up and sit down, you're the problem. Ipso facto. That's all I have to say about that.

• 1:08:26Speaker 01

  Ipso facto. Uh, all right. And last but not least, Nick Terry, who's a manager and producer out in LA, has tweeted this and it kind of brings up our AI debate that we have a lot of times. The T I, the TV writer career path as we, as we know it is over. Shorter rooms, fewer episodes, long gaps between seasons, if they come back at all. If you're still waiting for the industry to bounce back. Back to normal, it's time to pivot. Some key takeaways from this piece. IndieWire released a piece about the the death of the TV industry from a writer's perspective. Staffing is no longer a sustainable career. Many rooms are now the norm, not the exception. The ladder to showrunner, broken, residuals are shrinking or gone. Even big hits are getting canceled early. So what now? Writers need to stop thinking like employees and start thinking like entrepreneurs. Create IP right across mediums.

• 1:09:09Speaker 01

  Build something you own, something that doesn't rely on a singer's streamer's green light. The future is global, independent and multi-platform. Be nimble, build your brand, tell great stories everywhere you can. If you're not already thinking this way, start today. This is a new normal. What are your thoughts on this?

• 1:09:23Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, I mean, that's just fact. So this idea of most people in the world of AI are going to have to start thinking like an entrepreneur because you're going to be able to create so much with your own hands that fewer and fewer people will aggregate into larger companies. There is going to be a huge portion of humanity that just starts making their own thing, whether that's building a company and only need a small handful of people or whether, like me, I can clearly envision a world in which at Impact Theory, we pick a creator and we say, cool, this is your budget. Go tell this entire feature-length story. Or, hey, here's your budget. Go build an entire video game by yourself. And then, of course, if we can do that as a company,

• 1:10:07Tom Bilyeu?

  then you're going to have a gaggle of people that are like, well, why would I go to Impact Theory and ask for a budget? Let me just do this my own self, capture all the economics. And so I even can imagine a world where I actively, as the owner of Impact Theory, am building these things myself. Or the thing that we're doing right now is making sure the game that we're building, Project Kaizen, is created in such a way where other creators can come and build inside of our game and monetize inside of our game. And if you don't create an opportunity for those creative minds to act like an entrepreneur within your container, you're going to be made irrelevant. Those are going to be the only things that move forward. And so we're in this sort of weird period as the streamers, I think, are going to start to die down.

• 1:10:53Tom Bilyeu?

  That what you're going to get is something way More like YouTube where they may say, hey, we aggregate all of these cool things. We have an awesome algorithm that makes it easy for you to find these things. But ultimately, a lot of what's on Netflix or insert your platform here is created by the community and we're, we didn't have any influence over the creation because people are able to make this stuff so rapidly for so little money. And as long as they have a monetization path for that person based on the subscribers, now you can scale content effectively infinitely and everything more or less becomes like YouTube. That's the future.

• 1:11:27Speaker 01

  It's crazy. Everybody thought we were going to become more like Netflix. Everybody's becoming more like YouTube.

• 1:11:31Tom Bilyeu?

  Facts. This is what it is. When you can create that rapidly. All right, everybody, if you have not already, be sure to subscribe and make sure you're joining us for the lives, Monday, Wednesday, Friday, 8 a.m. If you want to shape the show, that is your chance. All right, until next time, my friends, be legendary. Take care. Peace. Let's talk about a pattern that is guaranteed to be killing your progress. You know what you need to do. You need consistent nutrition. We all do. You need vitamins, probiotics, greens. We all know that we should be doing more of it. When your morning gets chaotic, you skip it. When you travel, you skip it. When your routine breaks, everything tends to break and that inconsistency compounds against you every single day. AG1 is designed to solve the execution problem.

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